Morocco - Education : Demand, Costs and Efficiency - Executive Summary

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CONFIDENTIAL Report No. 12696-MOR EDUCATION IN MOROCCO: DEMAND, COSTS AND EFFICIENCY 0 co EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CrO o 4 -- January 19, 1994 Population and Human Resources Division Country Department I Middle East and North Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION: PURPOSES, SOURCES AND LIMITATIONS OF THE APPENDED REPORTS II. SITUATION, EVOLUTION AND PERFORMANCE OF THE MOROCCAN EDUCATION SYSTEM III. EDUCATION COSTS AND FINANCING IV. DETERMINING FACTORS OF RURAL DEMAND FOR BASIC EDUCATION V. FUTURE DIRECTIONS: GROWTH, IMPROVEMENT, ADJUSTMENT A. Strengthening Morocco's Basic Human Capital B. Mobilization, More Equitable Distribution and More Rational Use of Resources - 2 - I. INTRODUCTION: PURPOSES, SOURCES AND LIMITATIONS OF THE APPENDED REPORTS Purposes 1. To understand, so as to be able to act: that was the underlying purpose of the two studies appended to this summary. While a great many things are already known about the Moroccan education system, a number of key questions still lacked clear answers, a situation that made it difficult to guide the destiny of a sector that concerns nearly 4.5 million pupils and students, employs 230,000 people, consumes 7 percent of Morocco's GDP and involves the very future of the country. 2. Among these questions, two are particularly pressing. They concern: (i) the reasons for a drop--even if only a temporary one--in the rate of growth of basic education enrollment and thus in progress toward universal schooling, and (ii) the amount, allocation and utilization of the resources absorbed by the sector. The two questions are obviously linked since any action to rekindle school enrollment growth has cost implications. 3. The studies that follow contribute valuable data, in answer to these questions, for implementing a strategy aimed at definitively rekindling basic school enrollment--and therefore the process of raising the literacy level of the population--with all the positive multiplier effects universally associated with this type of investment. Findings 4. The first finding that emerges from the studies is that while Morocco devotes substantial resources to education, the fruits of this effort continue to be relatively meager in relation to the amounts invested, despite the remarkable progress made during the last few years. This first finding chas to be judged in a dual context: first, that of an economy characterized by openness and vibrancy, and second that of its relative performance, by reference to "comparable" countries, i.e. countries that either belong to the same geographic and cultural region or are similar in terms of economic performance measured by GNP per capita. By this test, enrollment rates were until recently clearly lagging behind and were substantially responsible for the relatively high degree of poverty that still exists in Morocco. The situation described is however by no means static and seems to have improved since the period covered by the studies. 5. The second finding concerns more particularly rural Morocco, and has to do with the fact that non-school factors play a major role in shaping the demand for basic education and that this demand is sensitive to a whole series of factors deriving not only from the conditions that determine the - 3 - intrinsic quality of a school but also from the various components of the fabric within which the schools operate. Recommended action 6. These two findings, and the many and varied observations expressed in the studies, give rise to a number of recommendations that can ensure the success of a campaign to reduce illiteracy and bring the goal of universal basic schooling closer. The strong statistical base of these studies henceforth furnishes more solid ground for a number of ideas aimed at making better use, in both quantitative and qualitative terms, of the substantial public and private resources allocated to the education sector as a whole, through actions both to make their utilization more efficient and their distribution more equitable. These measures--many of which have already been started or are on the agenda--would help alleviate one of the most powerful determining factors of poverty. In the long term, they would benefit the entire economy and the great majority of the people. Sources and limitations 7. The first report, entitled Costs, Financing and Efficiency of the Education System, takes a global, macroeconomic approach, and deals with the entire education system, from primary to higher education. On the basis of information supplied by the Ministry of Education and the available budget data, it presents an extensive picture of the situation of the education sector in terms of enrollment, cost and financing. While the physical data (some of which refer to 1992/93) present a very recent picture of the system, the budget data are somewhat older, largely going back to 1990/91. Analyzing schooling rate trends over time is complicated by a number of factors: (i) the longer duration of schooling; (ii) the lower repeater rate, and (iii) the changes in entry age. These factor. diminish the impact of the time comparisons, especially those relating to pivotal years during the period of change-over of the education system that began in 1983. Similarly, the specificities of the Moroccan system complicate international comparisons, making them of purely indicative value. Finally, the study confines itself to quantitative considerations and does not delve into the more complex questions concerned with the qualitative aspects of education in Morocco, which call for supplementary research at the school level. 8. The second report, Morocco: Literacy and Schooling in Rural Areas, is itself the product of two studies which differ greatly in origin and scope. The first study is based on the results of the National Household Level of Living Survey. It seeks to assess (by direct measurement of skills through tests) the effective level of literacy in the Moroccan population as a whole, on the basis of a sample of 3,300 households. The second study is based on a sample of 1,600 exclusively rural households. It seeks to identify the determining factors of education demand by means both of observation of household characteristics and of a survey of the opinions of these households with respect to the school. This second study performs multivariate analyses of household behavior patterns on which are grafted scenario simulations. - 4 - 9. These two series of studies thus round out the available package of information and analyses on education in Morocco.' None of them, however, tackles the even more difficult issues related to school quality, with their pedagogical, social and cultural dimensions. They need to be followed up by other, more qualitative studies, especially a study to evaluate learning experiences and identify the factors that determine the gains imparted by school attendance. 10. Several proposals for an in-depth and comprehensive reform of the education sector were made in a document issued by the Ministry in early 1993. The document included a clear diagnosis of the education system, an identification of the major challenges that the sector will face in the future, and imaginative actions to bring the system up to these challenges, especially at the university level. These proposals could have constituted a valuable platform for significant improvement of the sector, but the status of the document is unknown. Meanwhile, however, the Ministry has launched its development strategy for basic education, which favors an integrated approach to education and reflects the major conclusions that emerge from the appended studies. See in particular Etude de t1impact des dpenses Publiques sociates sur les m6nages A revenu modeste [Study of the Impact of Public Social Expenditures on Low-Income Households], EDESA, April 1993. - 5 - II. SITUATION. EVOLUTION AND PERFORMANCE OF THE MOROCCAN EDUCATION SYSTEM Literacy 11. The first overall assessment of Morocco's human capital stock is given by its illiteracy rate. This rate--measured by the "direct" method--was just under 58 percent for all Moroccans in 1991; this compares with 26 percent in 1990 for the "middle income, lower segment" group of countries (called the "reference group" in the rest of this summary), to which Morocco belongs. 12. This average conceals striking disparities which shed light on the nature of the problem: illiteracy affects 70 percent of women, compared with 44 percent of men, and 38 percent of the urban population but double that much of the rural population. When we combine the factors of gender and region, the differences are even more telling: illiteracy rises to 90 percent for rural women but falls to less than 26 percent for urban men. There is also a correlation, though a less striking one, between illiteracy incidence and income level. The data confirm the close correlation that exists, in Morocco as elsewhere, between elementary proficiency in reading, writing and arithmetic and a number of other poverty characteristics reflected in the morbidity, nutrition and employment indicators. 13. Though still unacceptably high in these times, illiteracy has fallen sharply since 1960, when it affected 87 percent of the population. Over the past 20 years illiteracy has declined much faster among men than among women and in the cities than in the countryside. As a result, the gender and regional disparities are much sharper for the cohorts of young people in the 15-25 years age group than for their elders. 14. The reduction in illiteracy is probably due more to the progress made in enrollment of children in formal schools than to the effects of the literacy programs or of attendance by adults at non-formal education establishments. Yet while the school is the most powerful vehicle of literacy, parental illiteracy is a constraint on school enrollment by children (see para. 35). In order to break the vicious circle of a destiny unchanged from one generation to the next in which the most vulnerable groups (rural women) are locked, action needs to be carried out on both fronts, including vigorous awareness-arousing campaigns among the population. Such campaigns, which began with independence, were resumed on a greater scale in the 1990s, apparently with positive results. Enrollment in the formal education system 15. In 1992/93 the school pyramid comprised 2,628,000 pupils in the first basic cycle (which corresponds to primary school), 1,184,000 pupils in secondary schools and 228,000 university students. These enrollment figures correspond to enrollment rates of 58 percent, 40 percent and 10 percent, - 6 - respectively, and an overall enrollment rate for the 4-23 years cohort of 41 percent. 16. Compared with the situation in the reference group countries, and to a smaller degree that in the other Arab countries, (i) Morocco lags behind in terms of in-school rate (in the reference group the 4-23 years in-school rate averages 51 percent), and (ii) the pyramid is relatively narrow at the base and quite large at the apex (in the reference countries 87 percent of primary-age children are in school). Private schools, which still play a marginal role in basic education, account for a significant proportion of secondary enrollment (8 percent in 1991/92). Distribution of enrollment 17. Girls are under-represented in primary education, as are the rural areas. This results in a marked contrast between the favorable situation of urban boys (with a net enrollment rate of 93 percent) and the distinctly disadvantaged situation of rural girls (whose net enrollment rate peaks at 22 percent). The skew is repebted in secondary education, with similar gender percentages but, of course, even wider regional discrepancies owing to the scarcity of secondary schools in rural areas. Despite the progress made recently, Morocco's performance in terms of enrollment of girls still falls short of that of the other countries of the reference group. Enrollment trends 18. The trend of primary education enrollment testifies to the existence of a problem at this level: primary enrollment fell between 1983 and 1988 and did not regain its previous level until 1991, following the campaigns conducted by the Government. On the other hand, enrollment has risen steadily at the secondary level (+4.3 percent a year during the 1980s) and above all in higher education. This imbalance, which could have adverse repercussions on the labor market, reflects inadequate control of flows at entry into the system and at the various transition levels. Internal efficiency 19. Examination of schooling profiles yields the following findings with respect to the way in which flows move through the system: (i) There is little selectivity in movement between cycles. The apparent severity of the examinations is thwarted by the pupils through massive recourse to the strategy of multiple candidacy. (ii) The drop-out rate is high and implies that flow regulation takes the form essentially of wastage within cycles, which is socially expensive. (iii) In the urban areas, school paths are more or less parallel for girls and boys, despite the gains made by boys in terms of access. In the rural areas, in contrast, access disparities worsen during the course of schooling. - 7 - (iv) Pupil flows in the system have accelerated recently: the internal efficiency gains stem from the decline in repeater rates that accompanied the 1985 reform establishing a two-cycle basic education system totaling 9 years. 20. These recent advances in internal efficiency in basic education should not however lead us to forget that (i) the average survival rate of pupils at this level in Morocco is lower than that observed in the reference group countries, and (ii) pressures are building up at the secondary level which will eventually pose the problem of regulating access to post-basic education, which is now largely unrestricted. Staffing 21. The study furnishes information on the chief resource of the education system, its personnel, and most important of all the teaching staff. This information yields the following conclusions: (i) Average staffing rates are very high in primary and secondary education (in 1991 the teacher/pupil ratios were 1:27 in first- cycle basic, 1:16 in second-cycle basic and 1.11 in secondary education) and well above the levels achieved by the reference group countries (without taking into account possible disparities in the use of part-time staff). (ii) This trend has sharpened over the last few years, which have been marked by a steady decline in class size, and seems to result from the deliberate pursuit of better education quality by reducing class size. (iii) The aggregate figures mask a sharp urban/rural dichotomy: whereas in 1991 average class size in basic 1 was 35 in urban areas, it fell to 22 in rural areas, which have a low population density. It seems that in these areas, use of multiple-course classes--a reportedly cost-efficient strategy for grouping pupils together in dispersed rural areas--is still relatively limited. (iv) The actual service time put in by teachers amounts to only three quarters of their theoretical statutory obligation, which means substantial losses. (v) The situation differs widely within post-secondary education: the teacher/student ratio averages 1:32 but is 1:3 in engineering and as low as 1:63 in law and economics. On the other hand, there is an over-abundance of non-teaching staff at this level. (vi) The teaching corps as a whole at the primary and secondary levels is highly qualified and has undergone complete general and vocational training. (vii) At the higher education level, Moroccanization has been completed, without any particular cost in terms of level of qualification. - 8 - 22. Morocco has opted for a policy under which growth of school enrollment is accompanied by an improvement in teaching quality, instead of sacrificing quality to growth, as unfortunately happens in many countries. To accomplish this it has chosen to focus its efforts mainly on improving staff ratios and qualifications. This choice also, incidentally, helped meet the need to absorb the growing surplus of university graduates, which was beginning to cause concern. This is an expensive strategy, whose pedagogic efficiency remains to be demonstrated (international experience does not suggest a strong positive correlation between quantity of teachers and academic performance). The appended studies 'do not furnish any direct information on availability of other school inputs; to obtain this it would be necessary to perform a detailed analysis of school expenditures and also to examine the impact of these inputs on education results school by school. External efficiency 23. The necessary data are still lacking for precise assessment of the external efficiency of education in Morocco. In particular, the scarcity of reliable information on incomes at each diploma level makes it impossible to calculate education yield rates. An idea of the monetary benefits that the training brings on the labor market can, however, be obtained by juxtaposing a number of data. The first datum is furnished by urban unemployment rates. Unemployment, which overall has been rising for a number of years (from 8 percent in 1985 to 20 percent in 1991), affects nearly all young people and, among them, diploma-holders more severely than others. Selective higher education graduates are spared (1 percent) while graduates of open establishments and holders of vocational training diplomas are more seriously affected (32 percent). 24. This unemployment among new job-seekers appears to be due to a growing mismatch between the graduates put out by the education system and the capacity of the labor market to absorb them. What this comes down to is the difference between job-creation and labor-supply growth rates: the elasticity of job creation to GDP growth (in volume) is less than unity for high school graduates (bacheliers) and close to 5 for technicians. From extrapolation of trends using the elasticities method--undoubtedly very approximate--it is to be feared that the number of unemployed bacheliers will rise during the next few years. For its part, it seems that the vocational training graduates (including technicians) population, though its heterogeneity makes it even more difficult to grasp, is not immune to the risk of unemployment. Unfortunately, data are not available to document possible qualitative mismatches, and until specific studies will be conducted, there is no way to assess the relevance of curricula to the types of qualifications needed by private employers. III. EDUCATION COSTS AND FINANCING 25. The overall balance sheet of education cost in Morocco shows that the Government is the chief source of education financing (84 percent of total cost), well ahead of families (11 percent), local authorities (3 percent) and the private sector (2 percent). In 1990 the Government devoted 28 percent of its budget to the Ministry of Education (and 35 percent to the sector in the broad sense), i.e. 7.3 percent of GDP. This is a higher proportion than the average for the reference group of countries (17 percent of budget and 6.6 percent of GDP); it has risen steadily over the last few years and is probably approaching its ceiling. These indicators have no meaning, however, except when set against school performance; since the latter is less satisfactory (see paras. 14-16 above), the net result of this effort is cause for concern since it reflects a skew between resources deployed and results obtained. It should be possible to improve efficiency by investigating the causes of this skew. Expenditure structure 26. The intrasectoral distribution of the operating budget by education levels is stable and is characterized by: (i) the relatively low share allocated to primary education (35 percent, against 43 percent in the reference group of countries); (ii) the clear priority accorded to secondary education (46 percent, against 23 percent in the reference countries). The 19 percent that remains for higher education is below the average for the reference countries (30 percent), and suggests declines in quality. 27. The functional breakdown of the public resources allocated to education highlights: (i) the relative importance of investment expenditures (which accounted for 10 percent of total government investment expenditure in 1991); (ii) the progressive transfer of investment expenditure from government to local authorities. The share of personnel expenditures in total operating expenditure declines with rising education level, from practically 100 percent in primary to 94 percent in secondary and 56 percent in higher education. - 10 - 28. Student aid, particularly higher education scholarships, also represents a substantial burden (39 percent of operating budget). It is doubtful that this aid is efficient in view of the lack of selectivity in granting it and of any tie-in with the Government's priorities with respect to branches of study (in 1990 73 percent of students were receiving a scholarship). The scholarship system in fact causes problems of several kinds: (i) pedagogically, it is not a stimulus because it is not backed by strict penalties and tends to encourage prolongation of studies without any quality gain; (ii) socially, it is inequitable because it gives equal treatment to needy students and students from well-off families (who represent the bulk of the student population); (iii) economically, it is inefficient because it does not convey any message to students concerning relative job scarcities or the differences in job opportunities between the various courses of study; (iv) it represents a heavy drain on the budget which is not offset by any cost-recovery arrangements even though it essentially benefits a population that can afford to pay and is theoretically capable of reaping a monetary return from the training received. Unit costs 29. Unit cost in the first cycle of basic education (US$165) falls within the range of average primary education unit costs in the reference countries and is rising as a percentage of per capita GNP. The urban/rural differences in staffing rates apply also to the case of unit cost, which is low in urban areas (US$145) and significantly higher in the countryside (US$205). Average unit cost doubles in basic education cycle 2 and rises to US$730 in general secondary and US$1,100 in technical secondary education; these figures are double the average for the reference countries and evidently reflect the teacher/pupil ratios, which are themselves higher than in the reference countries group. These high figures, which are attributable to the policy of raising quality by strengthening staffing (see paras. 20-21 above), add to the doubt about the efficiency of this policy. 30. The situation varies widely within higher education. In most departments of the overcrowded open universities unit cost is barely higher than in secondary education (US$880) and tending to decline. In contrast, in the cadre training schools, heavily staffed selective-entry institutions and certain professional and/or scientific university faculties it is very high (US$4,300 to US$11,000, depending on the faculty). In the case of the open university sector, it is likely that the persistent low cost may well signify a deterioration in quality. The high cost in the elitist sector, in contrast (while probably an indication of higher quality), raises the question of whether savings could not be realized, without any loss of teaching quality, by grouping together or restructuring certain departments. - 11 - 31. The breakdown of unit cost by expenditure categories confirms and rounds out the results of the global allocations analysis and highlights, in particular: (i) the low plant allocation in the second basic cycle ($10, against $6 in the first cycle); (ii) the high share of salary expenditures for non-teaching staff in basic 2 and secondary education (32% of total unit cost in both cases) and, though less striking, in teacher training (18 percent); (iii) the high social cost in the teacher-training schools, where practically all the trainees are in receipt of grants (29 percent of total unit cost) and the open universities (36 percent); (iv) the wide spread (covering a range of 1 to 10) in per-student cost within the university schools group, with the law, economics and social studies majors at the bottom of the scale and the scientific schools at the top. (v) the lower unit-cost spread per graduate than per student, reflecting on the one hand the wastage in the not very onerous open sector and on the other the internal efficiency of the selective sector. - 12 - IV. DETERMINING FACTORS OF RURAL DEMAND FOR BASIC EDUCATION 32. The rural areas, where half of Morocco's population and nearly three quarters of its poor still live, currently presents the greatest challenge in terms of social services, particularly education services, coverage. The rural areas themselves vary widely in school infrastructure provision and, therefore, school attendance. In 1991, the net in-school rate in primary education for Morocco as a whole was only 37 percent (against 89 percent for urban Morocco). Under-enrollment affects essentially girls and is due to the combined effect of a low admission rate and low retention capacity: (i) first-year access rates did not exceed 65 percent for boys and 32 percent for girls (against 90 percent for boys and 85 percent for girls in urban areas), and (ii) survival rates in primary were stagnant at 55 percent for boys and 40 percent for girls (against 100 percent for both sexes in urban Morocco). 33. The following are the major characteristics of rural education supply: (i) a large minority of schools (33 percent) are still incomplete schools in that they do not offer the full primary program; (ii) multiple-level classes represent only one fifth of total classes; (iii) relatively little progress has been made in feminizing the teaching staff (59 percent of the schools have at least one female teacher but only 35 percent of all teachers are women); (iv) infrastructure provision varies widely but is generally fairly low (9 percent of schools have electricity, 26 percent water and 17 percent latrines); (v) school accessibility is relatively good (average distance from a school is 1.2 km); however, this parameter is probably not very relevant in hilly areas, where trips are much longer and arduous and trip time would be a better measure of accessibility. Impact of school and non-school factors on school attendance 34. While school attendance is influenced by factors related directly to the school itself, it is affected even more by family circumstances. Girls are more sensitive than boys to this combination of home and school environment and particularly to the variables related to family and household constraints. Some school features that are reputed to influence attendance appear to have no significant impact: neither the presence of a female teacher nor the organization of the teaching program nor the co-educational nature of the school has any appreciable bearing on school attendance. - 13 - 35. The following are among the major factors that determine the probability that a child will enroll in primary school. (a) School factors (i) There is a strong positive link between enrollment and distance to the nearest school: the threshold distances beyond which this effect is felt are 500 m for girls and 2 km for boys. (ii) There is a close positive link between enrollment and the existence of a full-service school canteen; other school "amenities" have only a moderate impact and then only on girls. [iii) Availability of the full range of classes, making it possible to pursue the complete primary cycle, increases the probability of attendance. (b) Family factors (i) Girls whose fathers are farmers are handicapped in relation to other girls (enrollment of boys is not sensitive to this variable). (ii) There is a clear positive link between the existence of a television set in the home--an indicator of both the family's income level and its "modernness"--and the likelihood of enrollment. (iii) A mother's literacy level strongly influences the probability that her daughters will attend primary school (boys are not greatly affected by this variable). (iv) The likelihood that a girl will attend primary school declines regularly in proportion to the number of young children in the family, i.e. to the burden of looking after them; conversely, it rises with increasing number of female adults in the family, i.e. increased sharing of domestic responsibilities. (v) Finally, girls are also penalized by the important role they play in getting and fetching wood and water and also in the form of money-earning activities, which are major obstacles to school attendance or diligence in school work. 36. The survival of children in the primary school program is not significantly affected by the environmental constraints that operated at the level of their entry into the system. The existence of a full-service canteen is the only factor that truly boosts retention. While family variables continue to have an impact, it is much milder than it was at entry. Similarly, the likelihood of entering secondary school is not greatly affected by these variables but is very sensitive to distance from the school. - 14 - 37. While parents' opinions concerning the modern school are generally favorable, a minority of them (15 percent) express strong reservations about the benefit that girls can obtain from it. Social characteristics do not affect this general opinion. For the great majority of parents the primary school is not an end in itself and must be supplemented by college, particularly in the case of boys. This opinion directly reflects the social demand exerted on secondary education through primary school, which is perceived only as an obligatory transitional stage that has no value in itself except perhaps for girls, who are probably not regarded as leading contenders in social mobility. 38. Parents generally hold-conservative opinions with respect to school organization: they prefer full-program schools, separate classes for boys and girls, teachers of the same sex as the pupils, and single-course (as opposed to multiple-level) classes. While these preferences are obviously not conducive to cost savings, they are only opinions with respect to an ideal situation and are likely to change as pupils advance through the school. Finally, a majority of parents do not favor tailoring school programs to the needs of rural life, and are indifferent to the idea of altering the timetable to take account of the constraints imposed by farming. Here again, the impression is left that primary school is tolerated as a necessary stage that it would be better to keep in its familiar and reassuring form rather than giving it the function of an end in itself and a place of social experimentation or innovation; and here again, one perceives that what is involved is mentalities and attitudes associated with a specific environment and that the changes to be introduced are not a matter of short-term actions but of transformation of the life experience itself. - 15 - V. FUTURE DIRECTIONS: GROWTH, IMPROVEMENT. ADJUSTMENT 39. The picture that emerges from the appended studies is not yet completely exhaustive and requires to be refined and rounded out. It does however serve to chart clearly the courses that need to be followed in order to correct a situation which Morocco cannot be satisfied to leave unchanged if it is to continue along its chosen road toward modernity and prosperity. The recommended measures are familiar to Morocco's education policy authorities, and many of them have already been implemented, especially in the basic schools. The study findings largely confirm the soundness of the actions already undertaken. In addition, thanks to their global scope, they point to a number of supplemental paths and highlight the strong interdependence between education levels and between the various measures envisaged, which are developed around two main lines of action. A. Strengthening Morocco's Basic Human Capital 40. Eradicating illiteracy, which is both an indicator and a cause of poverty, is an urgent and priority task, and achieving universal basic education is the most expeditious way to attain this goal in the medium term, for the benefit of the generations that are to follow. Universal primary schooling is an indispensable ingredient of a poverty alleviation strategy, which is why it figures among the primary objectives of the Government's Social Development Strategy. Its benefits are not limited to better preparation for later studies or greater efficiency in performing a skilled trade. It also brings benefits in the areas of sanitation, nutrition, demography and civic responsibility. For these reasons the effort required to achieve this objective is by its nature a tutelary responsibility and thus falls primarily on the Government. 41. Rekindling primary enrollment growth as a stage along the road to universal schooling calls for action at two levels: on the supply side (traditional but insufficient in itself) and on the demand side. This two- pronged attack is necessary because, in particular, the education backlog effects mainly girls in rural areas and their school attendance is greatly affected by a whole range of school and non-school factors which cannot be reduced to a simple matter of increasing the number of classrooms or schools. A multisectoral and integrated approach is essential in order to be able to influence these factors, and in particular to stimulate demand, i.e. to influence behavior patterns. This is the approach being followed by the Ministry, which has for several years been taking supplementary measures of this kind. These measures are organized along the following lines: - 16 - Improvina enrollment coverage 42. One program comprises-targeted school construction to strengthen the primary school network so as to bring the schools appreciably closer to their "clientele" and thereby reduce the distance constraint. To be able to establish a priority-ranked list of needs, the authorities need to possess an operational school map and a land-use planning framework. They also have to apply continuously updated hypotheses with respect to migration flows to the cities. In a situation of marked migration from the rural areas, a school located in a private douar that lacks other basic social infrastructures, a focal point of economic activities and adequate communications is unlikely to serve for long as a deterrent to migration and will probably quickly lose its purpose, reducing the value of the investment in the school to zero. It is therefore the task of the authorities to identify suitable sites for the new schools--in the most disadvantaged areas--that also offer an environment that is already flagged as suitable because they possess the necessary supplementary social services and infrastructures or can be provided with them through integrated programs in such areas as health centers, potable water and access roads. An alternatIve course would be--at least on an experimental scale--to assign other social functions to the school in addition to that of education, including literacy training, as a matter of priority, but also preventive health care, nutritional and family planning activities. The Ministry itself identified an integrated approach of this kind during the study session in May 1993, into which it is incorporating its activities designed to promote school enrollment of girls. Completing school Programs and filling classrooms 43. Introduction of full programs in schools that lack them would reassure parents that children enrolled in basic education will be able to complete the full course of studies and do so on the spot without having to travel to another, more distant school. It is the task of the school mapping authorities to estimate the needs created by these program expansion activities, in terms not only of infrastructure but also, and above all, of personnel and recurrent costs, so that the necessary selective decisions can be made. It would be advisable at the same time to examine whether the schools can make greater use of multiple grade classes so as to take better advantage of the available teachers in sparsely inhabited rural areas. Any resistance this teaching technique still arouses in rural areas could be reduced through informational campaigns addressed to parents. Specific pedagogic training for teacher assigned in multigrade classes would also be necessary. Rekindling demand for basic education 44. The existence of a school canteen in each rural school--new or existing--would obviously help promote new registrations and bolster retention in rural primary education. The logical course is to concentrate the canteens in sparsely inhabited areas where the distance to school prevents children from getting home for the midday meal; in these areas the canteen plays much more than a nutritional role. This makes it necessary to conduct an inventory of schools and prepare a canteen needs map as the basis for a cafeteria - 17 - deployment plan which seeks the most economical solutions and makes use of local products and other contributions. This operation could be combined with an inventory of the nutritional status of children enrolled in the first basic education cycle, with the object of identifying areas where nutritional status is such as to jeopardize the learning process experience and setting up special nutritional supplementation campaigns there. It is necessary however to ascertain the costs of school feeding programs as precisely as possible before proceeding to expand them. The experience gained under the World Food Program should help the authorities to assess these costs accurately and to target the schools and the pupils affected by the canteen program. Making textbooks available and free of charge 45. Making basic textbooks available to all pupils in basic cycle 1 is a pedagogic necessity. Providing them free of charge is not only something that parents expect but also removes the deterrent of having to purchase school books at this level. Assessing these needs and the costs involved accurately should be facilitated by the experience gained in textbook distribution--especially for girls--and could be done quickly. Making better use of Preschool establishments 46. Preschool education offers scope for initiatives which could be expected to have a threefold impact: (i) preschool education prepares--or could prepare--parents to accept the idea of future enrollment in basic education; (ii) it prepares children for primary school through appropriately adapted teaching programs, and initiates a socialization process, and (iii) it helps to reduce family child care costs and fosters enrollment of older girls in primary school. In that connection, Morocco's Koranic schools represent a potential that ought to be encouraged by modernizing these--privately governed--schools. The relatively large number of Koranic schools located in regions sparsely endowed with formal school infrastructures is an additional asset. It is important to respect the religious vocation of Koranic education and at the same time exploit to the maximum possible degree its beneficial effects on primary school enrollment and on the learning experience in the formal school environment by introducing teaching methods more suited to the times and where necessary improving the teaching equipment. The Ministry of Education has engaged a reflexion on this potentially important educational instrument. Stepping up the awareness-arousing campaigns 47. The findings of the rural education studies point to the desirability of stepping up the awareness-arousing programs that the Government has initiated. The effectiveness of these programs could be increased through the use of social marketing methods. They should preferably also include modules designed to sustain demand during the school program (instead of simply encouraging new registrations) and, in particular, to create increased understanding--and acceptance--of the purposes and techniques of multiple-course classes. In any event, marked political visibility would - 18 - boost the impact of the campaigns, which would gain by enjoying the patronage not only of the public authorities but also of the respected non-governmental agencies. Strengthening adult literacy programs 48. Literacy training serves not only to "recoup" adults who have not had the advantage of formal schooling (or have dropped out of school before completing the full cycle) but also to stimulate demand by such adults for enrollment of their own children.. This makes it important to pursue and step up the adult literacy programs. At the same time the programs could be improved by targeting them better, first to the most disadvantaged areas and second toward girls and women. Moreover, unlike the initial formal school programs, the return on literacy campaigns could be increased by combining them directly with vocational activities. Experimental programs could be initiated rapidly in urban areas in large enterprises that make intensive use of unskilled labor and be supported by tax incentives. They could also be tested through the highly labor-intensive community works programs implemented by National Promotion or in conjunction with programs to promote income- generating activities. At all events, the existing programs need to be evaluated, and this could be followed by a true plan of periodic evaluation of future literacy training programs in order to target them better, raise their efficiency and perpetuate their effects. Alleviating the time constraints on girls 49. The appended study identified a major obstacle to school enrollment of girls that is beyond the control of the education policy-makers: the problem of the combined burden of family duties (from finding fuel and water to looking after younger siblings) and economic responsibilities (money- earning activities). This is a factor that cannot be ignored in any general strategy aimed at improving the living conditions setting within which action to promote education demand has to take place. This constraint could be alleviated by shortening or adjusting school hours; stipends for girls could also diminish the need to engage in wage-earning activities. These are measures that fall within the competence of the Ministry of National Education. To be effective, however, action to resolve the problem of the time spent by small girls on fetching and carrying tasks must be addressed primarily to (i) potable water distribution and (ii) availability of suitable technologies for preparing food and meals, two key goals of the strategy for integrating women into development. Finally, the existence of a school canteens can help reduce the need for children to earn money. Other incentive measures could however prove to be necessary; in that case they could be tested on an experimental scale based on studies of the conditions of paid work by children. Ensuring the quality of the learning experience 50. School enrollment merely creates the physical conditions for education, and time spent in a school, however long, is no guarantee that learning actually takes place. Behind this perhaps trite statement lies the question of the proper balance between quantity and quality. It is not enough - 19 - to raise enrollment rates; action must also be taken to ensure the necessary minimum physical and pedagogic conditions for the investment to be able to bear fruit. It is this balance that Morocco has tried to preserve by maintaining very high staffing rates and banking on a highly qualified corps of teachers, a choice that is costly and whose pedagogic results are uncertain. The recent introduction of high-school graduate (bachelier) teachers in basic education is evidence of the pragmatism and flexibility shown by the authorities in this area. At the same time, efforts remain to be made to further improve the available tools for evaluating the teaching process to as to enable the authorities to attack more efficiently a problem that henceforth will increasingly occupy the forefront of the education scene in Morocco: that of quality. That being so, this would be an appropriate time to study and test various lines of action for retaining rural teachers, whose social and economic status is deteriorating, together with that of an institution of which they are the both the symbol and the chief exponents. B. Mobilization. More Equitable Distribution and More Rational Use of Resources 51. The available resources--government, local authority, family and external--are scarce and subject to competing demands. They consequently have to be distributed equitably, managed efficiently and used wisely. Precise quantification of the governmental effort required to achieve universal primary enrollment rapidly will make it possible to calculate the amount of the resources required to achieve that goal and of the public resources available for the other education levels. The priority assigned by the Government to basic education needs to be reduced to precise figures in terms of both enrollment numbers and budget; the former obviously determines the latter. Reliable programming of the medium- and long-term development of the system 52. By constructing alternative scenarios it is possible to ascertain under which conditions the Government will be able to achieve universal enrollment in public schools and in particular whether this goal makes it necessary to allocate to basic education any incremental public resources made available to education. This programming would be comprehensive, in the sense that it would include both capital and recurrent costs but also that it would embody internal efficiency parameters. It would make it possible to evaluate possible financing shortfalls and to facilitate raising and coordination of the necessary non-budget resources. Strenathenina flow regulation 53. Simulation of the numbers of entrants at each level of the system must take due account not only of the budgetary constraints but also of the probable capacity of the labor market to absorb school leavers. Better screening of pupils at entry into secondary education would help redress the flow balance. It would involve action to: (i) improve the evaluation system; (ii) strengthen the counselling function, and (iii) develop short and flexible - 20 - vocational training programs, the initiative for which would come not from the ministries in charge of education and vocational training but from entities closer to the employers. Taking care not to saturate the labor market 54. International experience clearly shows that uncontrolled growth of higher education has harmful effects of two kinds. First, it creates unemployment among graduates. Second, by spreading the available resources too thin it reduces the quality of the teaching; in turn, this tends to aggravate the unemployment effect. In Morocco, where the civil service has absorbed all the graduate higher professionals it can take, automatic access by secondary graduates to public higher education is no longer justified. It therefore makes sense to re-examine the current provisions that encourage enrollment in higher education. Although it is difficult to estimate the private sector's employment capacity, the current level of under-employment among graduates counsels much greater caution with respect to post-primary and particularly higher education. Stricter regulation of access to public higher education establishments cannot therefore be put off for much longer; the surplus demand should be catered for by the private education sector, already a vibrant one, and whose development could be encouraged at the same time through fiscal incentives. In that connection it will interesting to observe the start-up and development of the University of Ifrane. Pursuit of greater efficiency 55. Basic education offers no great scope for savings and may indeed, overall, need additional resources. Nevertheless, the possibility of more systematic use of multiple-level classes in rural areas suggests that, even at this level, the potential sources of savings have not been entirely exhausted. Such sources therefore need to be sought in order to help expand the system and/or finance the various measures proposed (including measures to make the position of a teacher assigned to a remote douar more attractive). The situation is very different in secondary education, which is characterized not only by a disproportionate share of the sector's resources but also by inefficiency in a number of areas and high unit costs. The efficiency gains will accrue primarily from improvements in pupil flow between cycles. More specifically targeted measures would however have longer term impact, mainly in the following areas. Personnel management 56. This area probably offers the greatest room for maneuver with respect to unit costs, even though problems deriving from acquired benefits make the task more difficult than it might seem. The fact remains that narrowing the gap between theoretical and actual hours put in by teachers is a reasonable objective and one compatible with social justice. Before taking such a step, however, the authorities need to gain a better knowledge of the teaching process as it operates at the school level, so that they can take the necessary precautions before increasing class sizes and avoid the risk of lowering the quality of the teaching. More generally, analysis of the situation suggests that there is scope for appreciable improvement in the - 21 - teacher assignment, promotion and career development mechanisms. Bringing the actual teaching load closer to educated norms would also generate savings. Finally, continued analysis of the way the education system works at the school level would probably bring to light other underlying causes of the high unit costs in secondary education and other routes by which to attack them. Rationalizing the way the university functions 57. Higher education offers many opportunities to reduce unit costs (and also total costs if its expansion is contained). Better management of teaching personnel is again the main type of action to be recommended, especially in the elite institutions; in the case of the open universities the problem to be resolved is more one of excessive non-teaching staff. In these universities other sources of inefficiency need to be tackled: (a) Reducing repeater rates On the teaching side, the most reasonable way to achieve this is stricter control at entry. Although this approach is neutral from the standpoint of social justice when based exclusively on academic criteria, it is difficult to implement because it conflicts with individual strategies which tend to favor maximum prolongation of schooling time. Its long-term impact, in social as well as other terms, would undeniably be positive; nevertheless, having regard to common behavior patterns and aspirations, a step-by-step approach is advisable, including an explanatory campaign to make the approach acceptable to public opinion, which is as a matter of principle sensitive to the use of public resources. (b) Decentralization of funds Decentralization of resource and personnel management to the school level can also yield savings if the schools are made responsible for balancing their accounts; it is justified by the size achieved by this subsector and by the schools themselves. Measures to this end are inseparable from initiatives aimed at diversifying financing sources. Here again, the Government has taken the lead and put the education and health sectors at the heart of its decentralization initiatives. (c) Reduction in social expenditures Disengagement of universities from activities of a purely social nature such as catering would allow to devote supplementary resources to academic activities Introduction of user-sharing in post-primary school costs 58. The objectives of universal primary school attendance and gene7ralized literacy are governmental responsibilities. The Government accordingly provides itself with the necessary means to achieve them out of - 22 - its own resources (including resources it borrows or receives from abroad), without calling on family contributions. This does not apply beyond the primary level. Once pupils have graduated from primary school (and particularly from the basic cycle, which includes three years of studies that are de facto similar to secondary studies), they and their families make individual choices and there is no longer any good reason why the community should bear sole responsibility for financing them. Direct cost-sharing by users (i.e. not just through taxation) becomes justified; this contribution not only releases public resources for basic education but also leads users to exercise greater care not only in choosing future school paths but also in monitoring service quality. Finally, in higher education, charging significant registration fees and exercising stricter regulation of scholarships in terms of choice of faculty or study course and academic results and also the claims of needy students would be effective ways of channeling enrollment by disciplines. As an obvious corollary, greater attention could be paid to the financial costs involved in primary schooling so that they cease to be an obstacle to school enrollment at that level. Taken together, these measures would make for greater equity in the actual distribution of public resources, and could be incorporated in a longer term program. 59. In order to introduce student cost-sharing from secondary school onward, a number of requirements need to be met: (a) the contribution must be progressive in the sense that the student's share rises as he/she advances through the school program and also in the case of schools with a high output of students bound for the private sector; (b) it must be phased in, and for example could be limited initially to the social costs of schooling and only later include, where appropriate, academic costs; (c) the selection system must be-absolutely transparent, to ensure that it is based exclusively on academic criteria, and (d) compensatory measures must be developed to avoid excluding good pupils on financial grounds. As in the case of the selection measures, public explanatory campaigns will be needed to make the approach more acceptable. Ability to pay must also be assessed by some reasonable method, based on cost recovery principles. More active involvement of the private sector 60. On the strength of its initial experiences, and following the example of the countries that have already done so successfully, Morocco could embark more enthusiastically on a policy of diversification of the sources of financing of post-basic, essentially vocational and higher education, schools. In that process the private sector could obviously play a more active role in a whole range of activities, from starting up the programs to designing school cycles, assessing the gains made, furnishing management support for education, using the premises and plant for practical instruction and even direct or delegated supply of vocational training modules, all the way to financing of the training. In higher education, research agreements on specific practical aspects are types of collaboration that can often be fruitful for both parties. - 23 - Essential requirements: find out, and inform 61. The Government needs to provide itself with the necessary means for organized implementation of the various measures recommended in light of the appended studies. To that end it needs to possess a coherent mechanism for qualitative assessment of the sector to enable it to monitor its future development with the minimum of uncertainty. It must also possess a mechanism through which to disseminate, promote and discuss the reforms and measures to be implemented. 62. Systematic use of a physical and financial operational planning instrument becomes more and more critical. Such an instrument would allow it to construct medium-term integrated action plans covering the entire pyramid, from preschool to higher education. Armed with these plans, the Ministry would be in a position to exercise true and directed control and guidance of the enormous sector under its responsibility, to know what is feasible, figure out exactly the cost of priorities, decide the areas in which to slow down, and target the actions and programs for which external resources are required. In thus increasing its credibility in the eyes of the other expenditure ministries and of the donors, the Education Ministry would also boost its negotiating power in budget discussions and in its dialogue with the external agencies; in that way it would automatically provide itself with the supplemental resources it needs for practical implementation of the national priorities for which it bears responsibility. All the necessary elements are in place for the adoption of such an instrument, and the projections prepared by the Planning Directorate are already very complete and highly detailed, requiring only to be integrated into a single model. 63. Many of the actions recommended call for a political involvement and commitment that go beyond the Ministry of Education's sphere of responsibility: (i) channeling additional budget resources to the base of the school pyramid; (ii) actions designed to boost efficiency; (iii) introduction of user sharing in primary education costs; (iv) introduction of selective entry into secondary and higher education, and (v) participation by private employers in the financing and provision of vocational training programs. Implementation of all these approaches needs to be preceded by informational campaigns, debate and finally consensus if they are not to be exposed to constant questioning and disparagement. As in many other countries, the decisions to be taken in the education sphere concern the public in the broad sense and also involve the highest authorities of government. Confirming the assignment of priority to the basic services is a choice to be made by society, and its many and varied implications must be publicized as quickly as possible so that their implementation shall not be jeopardized by resistance on the part of public opinion triggered by surprise and lack of understanding.