Jamaica - Current economic position and prospects

RESTRICTED RETURN TO Report No. WH-154a REPORTS DESK ILE COPY WITHIN l N ME W--EK -E1 This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF JAMAICA December 23, 1965 Western Hemisphere Department  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS 1 Jamaica Pound = 1 Pound Sterling L 1 = US$2.80 L 1 million = US$2.80 million US$1 = LO.357 US$1 million = L357,000  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. BASIC DATA ............ ................................... i - ii SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .................................. i - iv I. INTRODUJCTION. 1 II. ECONOMIC GROWTH. 4 Agriculture. 6 Manufacturing .12 Mining .15 Tourism .16 III. PUBLIC FINANCES .17 IV. PUBLIC INVESTMENT .20 V. MONETARY AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEVELOPMENTS 24 Monetary Developments. 24 Balance of Payments .26 Balance of Payments Prospects. 28 VI. ECONOMIC PROSPECTS AND CREDITWORTHINESS .29 Economic Prospects .29 Creditworthiness .31 APPENDIX 1: STATISTICAL TABLES APPENDIX 2: TRENTDS AND PROSPECTS IN AGRICULTURE APPENDIX 3: EXPORT PROJECTIONS 1965 - 1970 APPENDIX 4: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS PROJECTIONS 1965-1970  I. BASIC DATA Area: 4.,400 square miles Population (end 1964) 1,762,000 Rate of natural growth (1954-1964) 3% Rate of emigration (195L-1964) 1% Rate of papulation growth (1954-1964) 2% Population density (per square mile) 400 Population density per square mile of cultivable area 700 Gross National Product (1964) JTa 280.7 million Rate of growtl 1/ 1954-1961 8% 1962-1963 2.2% 1964 708% Per capita GNP (1964) US $445 Gross Domestic Product at Factor Costs (1964) JI 274>7 million of which: Agriculture 12.9% Manr'facturing 14-3% Mining 9X3% Distributive Trades 1,59% Percent of GDP at current market prices 1964 1962-1963 1956-1961 Gross investment 19,8 18,6 23'l Gross savings J5.7 l5L4 l601 Balance of payments current account deficit 4,1 3c2 7.0 Investment income payments 4h9 4,8 3.8 Government current revenues 16.8 153 13.7 Resource gap as % of investment 2l00 16,5 29.5 M4oney and Credit Annual rate of changa(%)' 1964 1964 1962-1963 l953-61 (JT, mil- lion) Total money supply 79Q6 115 18.5 8.0 Time and savings deposits 46r3 12,1 18c5 12.0 Commercial bank credit to private sector 52,2 36.2 -6.0 i5ao Other lending to private sector n.aa noa n naa. o Rate of change in prices 2/ 2,3 lc6 3 3/ 1/ Gross Domestic Product at constant factor costsO *7! Kingston area 1555S-'1961  -2- Public Sector Operations Annual Rate of Change 1965 1960 - 1965 (W) (JTe million) Government current receipts 49.2 9e5 Government current expenditures 42e6 105 Surplus 6.6 4h3 Government capital expenditures 14.7 6.5 Total external assistance to public sector 0 4 nna. External Public Debt (in US$) June 30, 1965 June 30, 1962 Total debt 86z7 million 4803 mi.llion Total annual debt service 7.2 million 5/ 5.0 million Debt Service ratio 2.1% 6/ 17% Balance of Payments (in US$) Annual Rate of change 1964 1964 1962-1963 1953-1.961 (million) Total exports 223.2 7.1 8,5 12,~o Total imports 282.2 24.7 3.6 10o0 Net invisibles 8.1 - -4,7 3,5 Net current account balance -33.9 as 7/ .. 8/ 24 1964 1961 1953-1960 Commodity concentration of exports 9/ 45% 50% 40% Gross foreign exchange reserves 116.8 mil. 9103 mil. 77.5 mll or: months of imports 5 5 5.5 External financial assistance (in US$ million) 1964 Annual average 1962-63 Cciimitrnenibs Disbursenents Commitments Disbursements TOTAL 2.9 1.1 6.2 20