China - Yellow river basin investment planning study (Vol. 2 of 2) : Main report

Report No. 11146-CHA China Yellow River Basin Investment Plannirig Study (In Two Volumes) Volume 1l-Main Report June 30, 1993 Agriculture Operations Division China and Mongolia Department East Asia and Pacific Regional Office FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY -pocum,nof-theWorddRank This dorunmethas arestricted distribution and may be used by recipients onl intheperormance of ther official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclose without World Bank aulthorization. .  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Cufrency Unit: Yuan (Y) $1.00 = Y S.4 Y 1.00 = $0.1851 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System I ha= 15mu I mu = 0.06666 ha ACRONYM AND ABBREVIATIONS BLM Basin-Level Model CCPN Central China Power Network GOC Government of China GVAO Gross Value of Agriculural Output GVIO Gross Value of Industrial Output MGM Ministry of Geology and Mining M&I Municipal and Industial MOA Ministry of Agriculture MOC Ministry of Communication MOE Ministry of Energy MOP Ministry of Finance MOT Ministry of Transport MURC Ministry of Urban and Rural Construction MWR Ministry of Water Resources NCGWR National Coordination Group on Water Resources NCPN North China Power Network NEPA National Environmental Protection Agency NWPN Northwest China Power Network RBC River Basin Conservancy Commission RDPI Resach, Design and Planning Institute SEPC State Environmental Protection Commission SPC State Planning Commission WRB Water Resources Bureau YRCC Yellow River Conserancy Commission  FOR OFFICIAL UU ONLY CONTENTS 1 Badcgroundand CrIcal Prob ulna BaslnPbanmnlg ........... 1 A. Backgrn g o n .......... ... ..... 1 B. Key River Contol Effects .. ......................... 2 C. W Mmanaement Conflicts ....... .................. 12 D. nstitionalContext ..... .. ..... .......... 1S 2 Regow andReseurwes ..... .......................... . 19 A. HumanResources ..... ........................... 19 B. Land ........................................ 21 C. Surface Water .................................. 21 D. Groundwat ................................... 22 B. Indusral Base ......... ......................... 24 F. Regional Delineation ....... ....................... 25 3 Water In tLe Regonal Ecoomy ............ .............. 34 A. Agrictua Development ........ . . ....... 34 B. Crop Area, Producdon,andYields . ........ ............ 35 C. Benefltof rrigation .................... ......... . 37 D. Municipal and Industi Use .............. ........... 47 E. HydroelectticPower ... ........................... 49 4 mh Current Water Bial Stuadon ...................... 54 A. 'hel9,9 Dat .................................. 54 B. Thel987 Data ............. ..... 54 C. YRCC Projecions to 19 .. ........................ 54 D. TheBasin-Level ModelandResults ..................... 58 E. ConcludingReniarksaout theCurrm Stuaon ............ . 66 s Iivesmentoptions .................. 67 A. Oveiew .................................... . 67 B. River Haressing and Regulation .. .................... 71 C. Water and Soil Conservation ....... . 73 D. I tigtion ..................................... 74 This documont has a fesftite disrbudfi and masy be used by rocipents only in the pwtfo la of their oMcia duties. Its contents may not otvws be dbcbs6d without Wodd Bank authodzua.o*  E. HydropowerPlants ....... ...................... 75 F. Multipurpse Resevoirs ................. ........... 77 G. Tradeoffs amongInvestment Opdons . ................... 83 6 War Balance In the Y'ear 2000. ......... . 87 A. YRCC Projecions ........ ........................ 87 B. Simulations bytheBLM ............................ 87 C. Vadations on the2000Simuations ..................... 94 D. Conclusion from BLM 2000 ... ...................... 99 7 Water Baance In the Year 2010 ................ .. .. 100 A. Intmoduction... ...... 100 B. Desrption ofModelfor 2010 . ............... 100 C. Reslts of the 2010 Simulations.. . 106 D. Specfic Investment Options. . ... 111 E. 2010: Conclusions............ ... 114 8 Major Condusions and Rconunendadons ................... 115 Ann= 1 Hydrology and Watr Resources ........ .................. ....... 119 2 SedimentSources, Transport and Deposition ................... 138 3 Agriculture ........................................ 153 4 Hydropower ....................................... 210 5 bivesant Option Tables ....... ........................ 226 6 Ihe Basin-Level Model (BLM) .............. ... .......... 230 Ref e s .......................................... . 279 TABS iN EXT 1.1 Annal Runoff and Sediment Load in the Basin (1955-1979) . . 10 2.1 Yellow River Nahturd Flow (1919-79) ...................... 22 2.2 Prent Status of Groundwar Resource Devopment (198 by Regio 23 3.1 IrzigteddAeas in 1987 ........ . . ............................ . 36 3.2 GrainiYelds, 1987 ...... ................... . 37 3.3 Production byIrrigtionby WataSources ............... 38 3.4 ReUnsto rrigption ......... . ............................. . 40 3.5 I=emental Vue of Water . ...................... . 41 3.6 Retubtorrgption . .................. ....... . . 42 3.7 Margina ValueofWaterin rripgtion .................. 43 3.8 Estimated Irription Water Chages ................... . 45 3.9 IntercountryComparisonofPrices .................... 47  HI - 3.10 M&I Demands, 1980-2000 ........................ . 49 3.11 Elctical EnergyDemandGrids ..................... 50 3.12 Hydropower Generation on the Yelow ktiver .............. S1 3.13 EnargOpportunityCostofDiversions ................. 52 3.14 SummaryofYellow River Befits .................... 53 4.1 WataUse in1980 ........................ .. .... SS 4.2 WfaterUsein1987 ................... *........... . 56 4.3 YRCC Water Projections to 19 . ................... . 57 4.4 kmgatdAgriculturaActivity(l 99) .................. 61 4.S DedredDiversons . ............................. 62 4.6 Shortfal in Diversions .......... .......................... 63 4.7 Projections from YRCC Utlization Study Compared with BLM Simuaidon ...... ................... **.* .......*... 63 4.8 Basin-wide Water Balance ...... ................. . . . . . 64 4.9 ELM 199 Under Altemative DIflow Scenarios ............ 65 5.1 FinancialCosts ofPrposedlnvestments ................ 68 5.2 Capital Constructo Investments in Water Resources on the Yellow River ....... ........................ 69 6.1 YRCC Projecions to2 . ....................... . . -.. 88 6.2 Curmnt and 2000 Iriated Ara ...................... 89 6.3 CanalandFieldEfficiencies 19 and2000 .............. 90 6.4 Results from the Model Soluti for 2000 ............... 91 6.S Proec nsfrom the YRCC Utizat3on Study Compared to BLM SimWado ........................................... 92 6.6 Grwwthbetweenl90an d2000(P50 Scenarios) ...... ...... 93 6.7 Sedinent Constraint Effects ...................... . .... . ... . . . 94 6.8 Economics of Soil Conservation . .................... . 95 6.9 Impacts of Moving Toward an Economic Optimum .......... 96 6.10 Test of Imptance of Inprovements in Distributio Effiency ... 98 7.1 M&IDistribution Efficiencies,2000 ................... 101 7.2 YieldProjections: 2010Simuoion .s.................. 102 7.3 Sediment Flusing Constint ...................... . 103 7.4 Descriptonof2010Poicy Experiments ......... ........ 104 7.5 ImprovedDistributionEfflciencia,2010 ................ 105 7.6 kigateddA.reain2010. ........................... . 105 7.7 2010 ModelResults: BasinWWaerBalncce ............... 107 7.8 State Coundl AllocationsandNetDiversonsbyRegion ....... 108 7.9 2010 ModelResults: Agriculture ..................... 109 7.10 2010Model Results: Energy ....................... 111 7.11 2010ModelResults: ValueAdded ................... . 112  -iv I FIGURES IN TMf 1.la Yellow Rver Lowe RoahDikes .......... .................... 8 1.lb CrossSectionofRiver ................................ 8 4.1 SchematicofYellow River Basin ......................... 59 5.1 Real Capital Construction Invemen in Waw Reurces by YellowRiver Provinces,1978-90 ......................... 70 5.2 Re Capital Constmuction Investments in Water Resources as PecentofAllCapital ConstructionInvestments ................ 71 No. MAPS 24544 Population Densities by County, 1989 24545 Existing and Proposed Dams/Hydropower Projects 24546 Sediment Erosion Modules 24547 W&aier Resources Regions 24548 Sediment Concentration in Stream 24549 Current and Planned Irrigation Areas 24550 Groundwater Resources 6 Proposed Dams and Warping Sites  I BACKGROUND AND CRITCAL PROBLEMS IN BASIN PLANNING A. BACKGROU 1.1 'Me Yellow River, China's second longest, is 5,464 km long. ts suce is in the footls of Bayankala Mntains on the Qinga-Tibet Plateau. It passes through nine autonomous regioS and provinces (Qinghal, Sichuan, Gansu, Ningia, Inner Mongol, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan, and Shandong) before emptying into the Bohai Sea, supporting, on its way, an agricultul population of over 126 million people, most of whom are concentrated in the lower parts of the river basin (see Map 24544). 1.2 The Yellow River Basin, between latitude north 32