Somalia - Crisis in public expenditure management (Vol. 3 of 3) : Statistical appendix

Report No. 8727-SO Somalia Crisis in Public Expenditure Management (In Three Volumes) Volume Ill: Statistical Appendix March 8, 1991 Country Operations Division Eastern Africa Department Africa Region FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  Fiscal Year January I - December 31 Abbreviations and Acronyms ADC - Agricultural Development Corporation ADP - Annual Development Plan CSBS - Commercial and Savings Bank of Somalia CBPP - Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia AG - Department of Accountant General DDB - Domestic Development Budget DDD - Domestic Development Department, Ministry of Finance EPI - Expanded Programie of Immunization FYDP - Five-Year Development Plan GSP - Generating Shilling Process LMs - Line Ministries LMH - Livestock Marketing and Health MCH - Maternal and Child Care MOL - Ministry of Labor, Sports and Social Affairs MOA - Ministry of Agriculture MOF - Ministry of Finance and Revenue MFMR - Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources MLFR - Ministry of Livestock, Forestry and Range MFA - Ministry of Foreign Affairs MOHEC - Ministry of Higher Education and Culture MOH - Ministry of Health NRA - National Rangeland Agency NAHA - Nomadic Animal Health Assistant NGO's - Non-Governmental Organizations ODB - Ordinary Budget Departnent, Ministry of Finance PD - Planning Department, Ministry of National Planning MPU - Planning Unit, line ministries PER - Public Expenditure Review PIP - Public Investment Program PHC - Primary Health Care MPU - Planning Unit, line ministries SPA - Special Program of Assistance for Sub-Saharan Africa SHIFCO - Somali High Seas Fishing Company TA - Technical Assistance WFP - World Food Program WHO - World Health Organization  FOR OFFICIAL USE: ONLY Foreword This report is based on the findings of two public expenditure missions which visited Somalia in May/June and in November 1989, led by Baran Tuncer, Principal Economist. Baran Tuncer was the Task Manager up to yellow cover and the Principal Author, with the assistance of Gianni Zanini (subsequent Task Manager), and Fayez Omar. The areas of responsibility were: Institutional Aspects Baran Tuncer, Ercis Kurtulus (Consultant) Government Finances Fayez Omar, Gianni Zanini MIacroeconomic Framework Gianni Zanini, Fayez Omar Public Investment Program and Planning Young Kimaro Agricultural Sector Mohamed Usman Health and Education Nicholas Burnett, Swadesh Bose Statistical Appendix Aeran Lee, Gianni Zanini Important contributions were received from Bruce Jones (Government Finances) and Peter Gregory (Consultant, Pay and Employment Issues in the Civil Service). Jack van Hoist Pellekaan and Harry Walters have provided useful comments on the agricultural sector. Yaw Ansu contributed to the writing of the report at the yellow cover stage. Caroline Milad was responsible for the typing and layout of the report, with assistance from Afsar Nokhostin. Since the time that the green cover draft of this report was completed in August 1990, there has been a serious deterioration in the security and economic situation in Somalia. As a result, the macroeconomic projections presented in Chapters 3 and 4 are unlikely to be real-zed in the time frame envisaged (1990-93). Therefore, they should be considered only indicative of a possible medium-term scenario after political reconciliation and stability have been achieved. The analysis and data on historical patterns and institutional issues presented in chapters 2, 5, 6, and 7 remain fully relevant. This doxcument has a restrwled distribution and may he used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties Its contents may not oiher%ise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  TABLE OF CONTENTS CRISIS IN PUBLIC EXPENDITURE MANAGEMENT Volume 111 A. MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK Table 1: Key Economic Indicators, 1980-93 ......... ................. I Table 2: Gross Domestic Product, 1980-93 Table 2a: Current Prices ................... 2 Table 2b: Distribution ................... 3 Table 2c: Constant 1985 Prices ................... 4 Table 2d: Real Growth Rates ............... 5 Table 3: External Debt, 1980-93 ............... 67 Table 4: Balance of Payments, 1980-93 ............... 8 Table 5: Monetary Survey, 1980-93 ............... 9 B. FISCAL AGGREGATES Table 6: Summary of Government Finances, 1981-89, Cash Basis ..... ...... 10 Table 7: Central Governemnt Operations, 1980-93, Commitment Basis Table 7a: Current Prices ...... 11-12 Table 7b: Share of GDP ...... 13-14 Table 8: Revenues, 1980-93 Table 8a: Current Prices ........ 15 Table 8b: Share of GDP ........ 16 C. BUDGETARY AND FOREIGN-FINANCED EXPENDITURES Table 9: Ordinary and Development Budget Expenditures by Sectors, 1970-88 Table 9a: Current Prices ...... 17-18 Table 9b: Share of GDP ........ 19-20 Table 9c: Real Growth ...... 21-22 Table 9d: Distribution ...... 23-24 Table 10: Foreign-Financed PIP and TA Expenditures by Sectors, 1970-88 Table 10a: Current US$ Prices . 25-26 Table 10b: Current So.Sh. Prices. . 27-28 Table I1: Total Ministry Expenditures by Sector, 1970-88 Table 1 la: Current Prices .. 29-30 Table llb: Share of GDP . 31-32 Table l lc: Real Growth . 33-34 Table lId: Distribution . 35-36 Table 12: Ordinary Expenditures by Ministry, 1970-1988 . 37-52 Table 13: Domestic Development Expenditures by Ministry, 1972-1988 ...... 53-62  D. THE PUBLIC INVESTMENT PROGRAM Table 14: Public Investment Program, 1974-88 Table 14a: Actual ................. ......................... 63 Table 14b: Distribution . ....................................... 64 Table 14c: Planned . ......................................... 65 Table 14d: Disbursement Rate .......... ......................... 66 Table 15: Technical Assistance Expenditures, 1983-88, Actual .... .......... 67 Table 16: Core-PIP and Technical Assistance, 1990-92 Table 16a: Planned . ......................................... 68 Table 16b: Distribution . .................................... 69 Table 17: Core PIP, 1990-92, Funding Gap .......................... 70 Table 18: Foreign-financed PIP and TA, Aggregate Expenditures, 1980-93 ...... 71  Tab's I Koy Economic I.dicato,s, 1983-93 -------------------------------------------- ------------ -------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- ----------------------- 1990 1081 tQ92 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 19$8 l9e9 1900 1903 1092 1993 Eat P,.j P
oj P,oj F,O, -- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- . ..... --------------- ---------------- ........ (crooth rate A percent) RW ODP at factor cost 3,30 5.2% -10.1% 8.5% 7.41 2 2% 7 9% _oAs 2 31 3is 4 sOs aOs R#al ODP 6t ma,kot orices 5 is 4.1% -0.81 3.6% a is 3 5% 6.1% -1 is 2 7% 40% 68% 649 aes P..' CDP os,kat p,,cao por cap 2 8% 1.21 -11 3X 0 9% a Os 0 51 3.1% -4.05 -0 31 1O's 27% 241 2ell R..1 domost- cofta..vt, - par .*P 11.6% 4.01 -5 05 -2 71 -2 Os 3 4% -2 71 -6 2% 6 71 0611 -0 23 -0 ox 073 R.., 0
,"t. e-ooption P., cap 4 91 i3 St -9 2% -0 62 -6 ox -1.11 -5 3% -4 4% 5 St 221 2fis 0is 02% %064,oho CPI (poric,4 0,0 so 22 02 38 4s 92.21 37 es 35 as 29 It el 7% 120 42 129 ?X 30 39 2t i? 22 CPI (On4 period) $9.1% 19 92 34 Oll 46 q% 82 (A 30.4% 30,72 42.1% 107 It 149 31 70 is 25 O's Ou lb Os DaD, O.cl 'frolon dobt- (o USS) 6" 2 SU. 2 958 6 1324.7 1306.4 1499.2 1616.1 16889 1198.1 1934a 20380 19644 20799 S,O-d
l*d debt 0 .... co (. US$) 28.0 107.7 113.2 IWO 146 6 161 6 184 a 1515 156a 1717 1 w6 Oobt wa,
iro ratio 93.72 80.2N 128 25 137 Os 199.2% 194 62 148 31 143 es 131 72 101 et ,I.bt .-ico/ODP 3
61 13.72 12, " is is 14 391 lb 4% 16 3% 14n is es is 52 12 9s
.bt ..-c. let;.. oft*, 1-0;lf 93.710 49.62 128.2% 91.4x 135 51 194 sx 140 31 58 ?I 63 St 33 to Att
al cash dobt oe" ico lat',o 14.01 9.6% W.42 46.82 40 01 7 as 27 It 17 St 64 61 "as 33 is 0
... dom.
"ost.ont/ODP 42.4% 27.61 29.31 22 4S 24 22 24 SU 23 7% 29 52 is 72 21 42 19 4s 19 41 11)" 22 413 P
bl- "o4t~t/QDP 21 12 17 72 11.61 17. as is 41 15.70 is et 0.31 12.OX 16 49 14 It 12 St 12 02 13 02 P, .*to ;.,*at-.t/ODP 21 32 9 9% 17.7% 4.813 10 as 9.11 7. " 21.11 a 72 6 Os 634 a52 729 aas P- 4i..d ;."otmo.t/ODP 21 " SAS 13 5% a es 9 3% 6
2% S." 6 32 2 3% 2 6% 2St A2-A 5Os 642 P.bl-c/wtal fiw*4 -oatmont 49.1% 76 St 48.32 66.81 so Os 71 62 09 4% 73.2% as 92 86 52 83 32 15 21 70 711. 6e 71 0
0.t.t s%.i.Qo/GDP -12.91 -10.05 -12 8% -26 62 -22 " -11 Ss -16.62 -9 9% -6." -14 Oil -16n -17 72 -14 OIL -10 62 P.Al- damost;c G*-.Q1GDP -7.01 -10 92 -9.71 -8.719 -to." -12.25 -15.5% -10.3% -14 42 -17 21 -14 fM -29 42 -13 et -0 20 V-o-. domest;c s..,nQ/0DP -S.9% -6 ON -9 Is _141.05 -11,4% 0.7% -1.0% 8.59 8 is 3 St -2 92 232 -0" 162 N.t-af as
;.ge/QDP -9.611 -7.62 _7,95 -20.59 - le. Ts -14 es -22.42 -18 22 -11 5% -22 21 -23 72 -24 92 .19 of -14 St P
,Wc notional **.ins/(]DP -?.IS -11.62 -5.2% -9,52 -16.52 _27.611 -21. as -23.4% -20 22 -24 22 -21 81 -22 99 -19 Os -14 SC 0-oto national so
;"C/ODP 3.51 4.11 -2,71 -11 0% -2.3% 3.0% -0.5% 7 22 a 719 3.03 -1 92 -2 OU 0is 202 P-.ts i."Ote.t/se.ing too 17. 12 6 as 20 42 is es 13.0% 6.1% 8 41 4.0% -2.0% 2.01. 721 aes 712 6St ',,bl,C ;.vootoont/covins asp 29.32 29 3% 16-82 27 11 29. " 33.5% 37.71 40 72 32 is 40.62 33 95 38 72 31 92 30 St C--mont e,*..*/QDP 8
211 10.61 9.09 10 719 6.72 6.011 7.61 6.0% 6 7% S 32 a02 7Os a es 945 R ... - and gro,t./ODP 11.05 12.59 22 71 le. " 9.1% 14.4S 23.0% 23.5% 17. " 32.92 30.2t 35 is 33 02 92 St T.t.1 fpo.d;tvro/GDP 0.42 26 72 19AX 24.2% is so 21 81 31.25 36.32 29.4% 41.72 30 a 40 52 so Sfi ag an M
-Into,ost Oomeatic Epond /CDP 19.511 22 es IS.0% ISJX 12.619 11.1% 13.7% 16.61 12.02 12 2% 9 62 10" 10" 12 an 0
*,all 4oficit/aDP (inct. arente) -7.51 -14.2S -6.8% -7.31 -9.6% -7.42 -S." -II." -10.4% -9.62 -9.6% -4
9% -4 62 -7 32 O.oroll dofici;,/CDP (**el. grento) -10.SS -10,22 -20.4% -13.62 -12 " -15.82 -23.45 -29.42 -22.72 -so 42 -34 02 -33.60 -30 as -90 4t Rovestuel(ord*unid"tif-intepost) ".2t 49.4% MOB 74.20 44. TV es Os 69. " 47.1% ".011 so es 72 60 02 It 63 12 92" C-P*,t 9,06th (real) -16.2% 18.1% -IS.9% -27.4% 61.41 -12.21 4.92 -29.81 11.72 3.7% 7.52 22" 9it F,po,ts/QDP 22.2X 19.35 17.7s is so 7. 91 20.89 10.22 0. n 6.62 6 on 8.72 7 00 9on V.4% 10"'t Q,Owth (rool) -0. 911 16.39 -4.52 -9.2% -12.92 -6.21 -4.61 -43.82 60.95 -12.52 -7 113 -0 4% 0as Import*/CDP 76.45 60.42 62.6% 61.3% 61.51 40.7% 42.1% 40.3% 23.?% 35.21 3S.32 37 'M 35 73 so es Noft-project import Q,owth -10.26 as Ss -18.0% -6. as -29.5% -S.91 -16,4S _541 as 65.05 4.12 4 14R 4Is 4is Non-010j"t impolt elasticity -3.1 6A Ile -0.8 -4.0 -2.7 -2.1 129.0 20.0 1 3 0 a oe aa C ... *
t occo
nt (. US$) -134.7 -95.0 -231.1 -147.8 -146.3 -132.8 -125.7 -114.0 -98 4 -261.1 -170 S -206.$ -1050 -2010 C
-*nt sec./QDP -22.30 -13 62 -16.92 -20.19 -16.61 -15 is -13.5% _11AS -9.4% -13.32 -16 so -21 " _3-
Is -IT 21 C- Acet , o.cl. grants (a US11) -277.7 -24S.0 -280.1 -315.1 -339 5 -347.7 -430.7 -457
3 -3W? -482.3 -"S 7 -418 a -4067 -4302 (.,, A.ct., O.O. Q1Gnts/CDP -46.011 -35.09 -37.29 -42. 92 -42. 91 -39.61 -46.1% -44.72 -30.25 -42.61 -43 OS -44.33 -39 OD -36 92 RHP (d.p'qciat.
-) 42.511 18.42 -19.61 10.6% 89.62 -44.6$ -34.1% -16.4s 23 ON  Tbl. 2. Nat.onal Accounts, 1980-93 (afI ..on- of 1985 Sot; a*h I I ;anr) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1904 1985 1986 1987 1908 1989 1990 1991 1992 199S Eat Proj P-oj Proj Froj Ag,ilt.,~*t 43.822 49.769 51,179 44.92s s0.760 86,.53 54.860 59,378 81,613 e2.844 84,470 868.94 69.21S 71,612 L-"otock & livestock P,od.cts 26,886 29,697 80,049 25,339 27.748 30,893 28,469 32,945 33,474 33.099 33,761 34,875 38,028 37.107 0f h,ch: chbng. in stocks (362) 2,674 2.174 (1.930) 1,090 2,498 615 2,871 3,419 1.934 1,992 2.022 2,052 2,083 Crop production 12,036 16,271 16,221 14,46g 17,488 19.121 20,814 20,433 21,949 23,166 24,082 25.046 26,048 27.089 Forostry 4,378 4,806 4,e39 4,775 4,910 5.060 5,220 5.380 .,SW6 S.723 5,094 6,071 6.253 6,441 FP,hir9 443 29t 270 346 6cs 509 S65 614 834 686 732 8s0 JiS 975 ", n ng 278 306 278 291 291 291 291 291 291 291 291 201 36 S30 Ma.lacteurin9 4,962 4,127 6,140 4,164 3,684 4.145 4,596 4,821 4,580 4,717 4,953 S .30 5,80 6.418 El-.tric ty o.d Vate, 51 67 4 6 67 71 77 62 57 go 63 66 71 76 Conatruction 2,299 1,887 1,819 1,565 2,025 1,8e9 3,289 3,486 2,963 3,141 3,266 3,5S8 3.810 4.078 T,*d4 and Hotels 10,065 7,827 9,106 8,371 6,416 8,486 8,587 9,929 8. 99 9,081 9,353 10.101 10.608 11,849 7ran0Ort., Comuonication 4,545 4,241 4,612 4,787 4.641 6.687 6,020 6,183 5,873 7,225 8.412 6.707 7.205 7.837 Financo and Insurance 1,687 1,o09 1,118 1.263 516 481 359 575 548 437 448 4se 601 538 Real E atat 2,876 2,782 2,898 3.009 3.129 3.264 3.8S4 3,520 3,344 3.428 3,U6 s3,85 4,042 4,244 Onarnwaant Sar'ico 2,209 2.208 2,101 2,076 1,886 1,625 1,631 180 1,404 1,344 1,300 1,550 1,912 2.670 otDeh Sar'iceb 2,2t0 2.326 2,597 2,469 2,64S 2,620 2,698 2,779 2,868 2.949 3,067 3.190 3.317 3.450 Imputd Bean Servico charges (1,527) (1,066) (1,226) (1.647) (6O0) (889) (737) (748) (746) (785) (788) (609) (83S) (888) CDP at factor cost, inc. stocks 73.130 75,610 79,471 71.441 77,484 83,252 86,063 91,778 91,385 93.831 96.401 101.181 106,181 111.854 trdi,*ct Te.ne 4,609 e.831 8.013 e,s62 3,292 4,100 5.381 4,220 3. S 3,934 4,937 6.043 6,843 7,ess 04P at market pric", inc. stock* 7. 739 82,141 65,486 79,003 80.77e e7,352 90.444 96,99 94,931 97,464 101,33 107.204 118,024 119,389 Me4 at factor cost, *%c. ctocke 78492 72636 77297 73371 7638M 60754 8464 86906 87966 91597 94409 99139 104128 109451 CDP at market prices, *$c. stock. 78101 79467 8S312 79933 7967 84854 89o29 98126 91612 95830 99348 105182 110972 117286 Maor"ando. Ite.: DP at market prices 17,872 22,060 29.106 86,067 62,828 87,362 120,970 167.886 286,90 S 818,22 1.478,624 2,042.972 2,847.463 S.3S8.099 (curreat prices, Inel. atocka) Chan" in percent 26.931 32.008 20.45111 7MM 40.161 88.491 f.4" 71.251 IS.6211 Is.66n 38.368 29.691 25 9X  Table 2b: National Accounts, 1980-93 (p.re nt Change) 1960 1961 1962 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1986 1989 t99O 1991 1992 1993 fat Proj t roj Pr<,j Proj Agricultur* . 14 411 2.11 -12.21 13.061 9.51 -1.3J1 21 S.6x 1.71 2.091 It as 3.61 3 S Livestoc livestock prodctte . 11.41 1.2# -15.7J 9.5x 11.3S -7.81 15.73 1.6S -1.1 2 01 3 31 3 31 3 Os of *hie.: change in etocks . -86 719 -18.71 -108.81 -16S.91 127.31 -79.41 453.61 19.11 -43 41 3 01 1 51 1.N1 161 Crap producteon .. 26.91 6.21 -10.8I 20.9S 9.31 7.St -0.91 7.41 5 St 4.0C 4.01 4 Ot 4 01 Foreetry .. 2.91 3.01 2.91 5.01 2.91 3.21 3S.21 3.21t 30 3.01 31.Os S Os 3 0t F.ehqng .. -83.41 -8.61 26.11 75.71 -16.31 11.01 8.71 S.3S 6 01 10 011 1001 1 01 10 Os Ft.n,ng *- 9.7# -0.91 4.71 0.0 0.01 0.0 0.0o 0.OS 0.001 0 Ot 0.01 io OS n"facf.turine -I6.71 24.80 -19.01 -7.21 7.3E 10.91 4.91 -5.01 3.0t1 5.01 7 Ol 10 Os 10 as Etlectricty and Vte .. 11.86 -5.31 7.41 15.61 6.01t 8.61 -19 S1 -8.1% 6 31 5 Os 5 O 7 Ot 7 O1 Constreution -17.9 -S.61 -14.61 30.21t -6.71 74.11 6.01 -16 O0 6.01 4 Olt 01 O 7 Os 7 03 Trad and btele .. -22.22 16.311 -$.S 0.51o 0.821 1.21 15.81 -13.41 5.61 3.01 6 as 7 O1 5 01 Transport, Co_unication .. -7.71 8.71 3.801 -3.01 22.11 6.211 2 212F -4.61 6.01 3 O1 6 05 a Ott 6 03 Finance end Inaune .. -7.71 7.6tt 14.61 -69.8J -6.8t -25.41 60.2t -6.01 -20.01 2 00 5.0t 7.0( 7 02 Real etete . 4.011 4.0 4.0tt 4.01 4.01 4.06S 4.01 -6.01 2.51 4 01 6 01 501 6 01 Oovornent Sleroc .. -8.1t -4.6t -1.21 -11.5N -11.6t 0.4J -^.21t -8.21 -4.31 -3.31 19.2t 23 41 39 7t Othor Services . 3.0 3.06 3.0 3.01 8.0tX 3.01 S.O1 3.0 3S.03 4 0X 4 Ol 4 0J 4 01 Ieps.ted Sank Serolce chor. . -30.96 16.21 26.21t -60.81 41.711 -14.21 1.61 0.01 5.01t 0 O1 3 01 S 01 S ox GDP at factow coat. ncl. stocko 3.311 6.21 -10.11 S.6t5 7.43 2.21 7.910 -O.4S 2.31 3 1 4.90 6 aS 601 O Indirect Tat .. 43.91 -9.31 9.11 -49.8t 24.561 31.21 -21.61e -16.06 10 9o 25 5S 22 41 IS 21 14 3' Mr' a.t nrket prices. int. stocks .. 6.71 4.11 -6.61 8."6 6.11 3.61 6.11 -1.11 2 TS 4.01 6 Os 6 41S 6S MEP at facte coat, el. etocke .. -0.9tt 8.16 -5.101 4.11 5.71 4.76 8.21 -1.16 4.11 3 It 5 01 5 01 5 is CWP at earkt prices. ocl. etock. .. 1.1t 4. -4.11 -0.31S 8.611 e.o0 3.611; -I.7S 4.41 4 O1 6O91 5 St S n  T.bl. 2- Nst,or,l Acroumn,. 1980-93 (.iI, o,s cu'voht So Sh.) 1900 1901 1902 1983 1984 190s 1985 1987 19es 1080 1990 1001 11921 19S Feat P'oJ P,-J Proj P.J Dac.t.c *Poondi4reo 21979 31654 41353 12255 91298 119064 1609657 23174e 358814 837404 2000s76 2000337 3526365 4434171 ToCtI consumption 19,614 2s.s7e 32,031 44,395 76,216 97,S67 140.970 184,044 304,946 705,003 1 .23,003 2.404,087