Haiti - Updating economic note

RePOrt No. 8396WHA Haiti Updating Economic Note April 17, 1990 Latin America and The Caribbean Region FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY DOOcMetOf the Worw 3an This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients ~only in-the p6rformance of ther otiida1 dutifes. its contents may not otherwise be disclospd wifthut World Bank aufthoization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Gourde (G) G 1 - US$0.20 US$1 - G 5 The Gourde has been pegged to the U.S. Dolllar since 1919 at the rate of 0 5 = US$l. FISCAL YEAR October 1 - September 30  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY RAITI A Bank economic mission visited Haiti in November-December 1989. The mission consisted of Feliciano H. Iglesias (t'ission Leader) and Arturo Heyer (Consultant). This economic note updates economic performance in Haiti during FY87188 and FY88189. This document has a restricod distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not othewise be discloed without World Bank authoristlim.  DATING COoKIC mmTh Table of Contents Page No. I. BACKGROUND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 A. Economic Developments through FY86/87 . . . . . . . . . 2 B. Economic PerformancE in FY87188 and FY88189 . . . . . . 3 III. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT AND EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIREMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 A. Public Sector Investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 S. External Financing Requirements . . ... . . . . . . . . 4 ANNEX I: STATISTICAL APPENDIX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Map IBRD 21143  I. BACKGROUND 1.1 Haiti is a small and densely populated country located on the west side of the island of Hispaniola, in the Caribbean sea. Its 6.2 million inhabitants occupy 28,000 km2 (over 200 inhabitants per ki2). With a 1988 GNP per capita of only US$360,1 Haiti is the poorest country in Latin America and the Caribbean and one of the poorest in the world. Social indicators reflect the overall poverty of the country: 702 of its urban population and 802 of its rural population are below the poverty line, infant mortality stands at 114 deaths per thousand births and 65X of its adult population does not know how to read or write. The country's population grows at 1.7Z per annum. Migration from rural areas has propelled urban population growth to 4? per year. Family planning efforts, largely by NGO's, have not had a major impact in arresting population growth below current levels. The unemployment rate is high, 25%-302 of the labor force. 1.2 Three fourths of Haitians live in rural areas. Total agricultural output, however, has increased little since the early 1970's, and production per capita has fallen steadily as population pressures have led farmers to cultivate marginal hillside lands. The shortage of land, coupled with insecurity in land tenure arrangements and increased demand for wood as a source of energy, have led to severe deforestation and soil erosion. Over the last three decades, output and employment have shifted toward the urban sector and agriculture now accounts for 25Z of GDP compared to 50? in the early 19509. 1.3 In the second half of the 19709, real economic growth, averaging over 5S per annum, resulted in rising per capita income for the country's population. Economic growth was fueled by increasing public investment financed from abroad on highly concessional terms and by a major expansion in export assembly industries--oriented to the U.S. market--that were internationally competitive on the basis of Haiti's low wages. However, Haiti's export base is narrow and the country is highly vulnerable to external shocks. Assembly industries produce a limited range of products (electronics, clothing and sporting goods); yet, they account for over 60? of merchandise exports. Coffee, which accounts for about 20? of merchandise exports, is subject to fluctuations in international demand and prices and to changing weather conditions. Tourism has declined as a consequence of adverse publicity concerning health risks and political unrest. 1.4 Despite the relative openness of the economy (both exports and imports of goods represent about 652 of GDP), the country's trade regime became a source of inequities in income distribution as well as inefficiencies in resource allocation. Protective barriers (tariff and non-tariff) resulted in increased monopoly powers for domestic producers, and in the case of some commodities, the virtually open contraband activities created large economic rents. 1/ World Bank Atlas methodology.  II. RCENIT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS A. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH FY96/87 2.1 During 7Y8O181-FY84185, Haiti pursued policies that led to an inequitable and inefficient economy. Fiscal policy was excessively expansive and the public sector undertook expenditures that were either uneconomic or unaccounted for. The trade regime was characterized by export taxes, excise duties, import quotas and prohibitions, which resullted in an overly protected economy. These policies reduced economic welfare for a majority of the population. Agricultural and industrial production decreased: unemployment and inflation increased. During this period, the deficit of the consolidated public sector averaged 9? of GDP white that of thp current account of the balance of payments averaged 82 of GDP. International reserves, on average, decreased at a rate of US$22 million per annum. 2.2 During March 1986 to November 1987, the Government introduced sound policies. Public expenditures were reduced by two percentage points of GDP and reallocated to favor education and health. The public investment program focused on the completion of ongoing projects. Taxes were reduced by the equivalent of two percentage points of GDP, and reforms were introduced to simplify the tax system, lower its high marginal rates, and strengthen tax administration. The Government's debt to the domestic banking system was reduced. Trade monopolies, public and private, were dismantled to foster competition. Two out of five industrial public enterprises were closed down, and the Government initiated the rationalization of two more. Several measures were introduced as part of a trade reform: (i) quantitative restrictions oa imports were eliminated for 942 of the items affected by those restrictions, such imports representing more than 802 of total imports; (ii) specific import duties were replaced by ad-valorem (oness (iii) protection levels were reduced; and (iv) export taxes on a number of agricultural goods (coffee, cacao and sisal) were eliminated. 2.3 The above policy measures yielded the results shown in Table 1 below: Table I: ECOIOMIC PERFORANCE, MO/81-FY84185 AND FY86187 FY80181-FY84(85 FY86187 Public Sector Deficit (D of GDP) 9 6 Deficit in Current Account of the Balance of Payments (Z of GDP) 8 5 Inflation Rate 8 2 Real Exchange Rate +40 -14 Investment/Savings Gap (2 of GDP) 8 5 Source: Bank staff estimates.  -3- B. W O3OIfC PIRFORMNCE IN Y0788 AND m!8189 2.4 The momentum of the original economic reforms was lost, however, because of a number of political crises that unfolded in the second half of 1987. Economic developments from 1988 on have been characterized by work stoppages, investors' uncertainty, shortfalls in public revenues, and the suspension of vital external assistance. 2.5 In FY88/89, Haiti's real GDP is estimated to have declined by 1.5S; per capita GDP is estimated to have declined by more than one percentage point. Although the service sectors improved their economic performance, their growth was not sufficient to offset the decline in value added in agriculture for a third consecutive year. Consumption and investment activities also declined. Consumer prices rose by 15? in the twelve-month period ending September 1989, up from about 9.52 a year earlier. At the same time, the premium on the U.S. dollar in the parallel market rose from about 20? in September 1988 to over 352 in September 1989. 2.6 The public sector accounts registered further deterioration in FY88/89 compared to FY87/88. Although the overall public sector deficit (before grants) remained constant as a percent of GDP (5.72), the composition of its financing changed in FY88189: external sources accounted only for a fourth of the financing of the deficit. In FY87188, external sources accounted for almost a third of the requisite external financing. Moreover, in FY88/89 both total public sector receipts and expenditures decreased by almost 1Z of GDP each. 2.7 The balance of payments also recorded a further deterioration in the country's external financial position in FY88/89 relative to the FYB7/88. The value of both exports and imports of goods and services decreased. Exports of goods and services decreased from 152 of GDP in FY87/88 to 12? of GDP in PY88/89. By the same token, imports of goods and services declined from 272 of GDP in FY87188, to 232 of GDP in FY88189. The resource gap shifted from a negative 122 of GDP in FY87188 to a negative 112 of GDP in FY88/89. 2.8 Net transfers accounted for 102 of GDP in FY87/88 and 8Z in FY88/89. As a result, the current account deficit of the balance of payments deteriorated from 2? of GDP in FY87/88 to 5? in FY88/89. Capital movements resulted in net inflows in both fiscal years: 32 of GDP in FY87/88 and 22 in FY88/89. 2.9 To correct the above imbalances, the Government adopted an economic program for FY89/90 in an effort to reduce inflationary pressures, strengthen the balance of payments, and help reverse the decline in investment and economic activity. The program calls for an improvement in the public sector's savings performance and a reduction in its overall deficit to 4.5? of GDP in FY89190. The domestic financing requirement would be lowered to no more than 0.62 of GDP.  -4- 2.10 On September 18, 1989, after Haiti had cleared its arrearo to the IMF, the IMF's Executive Board approved a 15-month Stand-by arrangement for SDR 21 million. Upon approval, Haiti purchased the first credit tranche, SDR 11 million, and has made one purchase available since then, SDR 2 million, based on the observance of performance criteria at the end of September 1989. 2.11 As part of its economic program, the Government has already undertaken a number of revenue measures which have yielded almost 1X of GDP. It has also introduced new controls in the public enterprises (including their wage bill), and has raised wheatflour and millfeed prices. The Government also liberalized intereet rates by removing the ceiling on deposits and lending rates, and excess bank liquidity was reduced by an increase in the reserve requirement (from 37Z to close to 442). The Government also authorized commercial banks and most exchange houses to operate freely in the parallel market and reduced the surrender requirement for export receipts at the official exchange rate from 5OZ to 401. At the same time, commercial banks were authorized to accept deposits in foreign currency. III. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT AND EXTERNAL FINANCING RBQUIRDRNTSS A. Public Sector Investment 3.1 Disbursements under the FY90191 Public Sector Investment Program (PSIP) are estimated to amount to US$361 million. Total commitments for the proposed FY90/91 program are estimated to amount to US$393 million. Proposed projects in the FY90/91 program emphasize rehabilitation of existing facilities, labor intensive projects to help address Haiti's chronic unemployment situation, projects complementary with private sector activities and projects requiring limited recurrent and counterpart funding. Specific projects in the agriculture sector include integrated rural development in two agricultural areas of Anse-a-Pitre and Plateau Central and improving cocoa and coffee production for exports. Projects in the industrial sector are aimed at efficiency improvements at two key public enterprises. Projects in the infrastructure sectors includse the rehabilitation of roads, power sub-stations, water supply and telecommunication systems. Projects in the health sector include the rehabiliation of the hospitals at Bon Repos and Martissant to help relieve the overcrowding at the university hospital in Pore-au-Prince and the institution of a medical emergency program to help cut down on preventable traffic deaths. B. External Financing Requirements 3.2 The financing requirements for the PSIP are estimated to amount US$361 million during FY90/91-FY91/92. Scheduled amortizations are projected to be US$39 million during the two years. Public sector savings are projected to provide US$63 million, while net domestic credit is projected to finance US$25 million. Scheduled disbursements under external commitments (loans and grants) for ongoing projects would provide US$145 million. A financing gap for the two years of about US$167 million would  -5- remain, for which external donors have been identified for disbursements amounting to US$5 millio&. External donors are being sought for commitments which would disburse the difference, US$162 million. Table 2: PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCING I QUIRUI3NTS, FY90191-FY91192 (ln mlllions of US dollars) FY90/91 FY91/92 TOTAL Financing Requirements 198.5 202.0 400.5 Public Sector Investment 175.9 185.3 361.2 Schedule Amortization 22.6 16.7 39.3 Sources 114.3 118.5 232.8 Public Sector Savings 30.5 32.8 63.3 Ongoing External 70.0 75.0 145.0 Domestic Credit (net) 13.8 10.7 24.5 Financing Gap 84.2 83.5 167.7 Identified External 5.0 - 5.0 Unidentified External 79.2 83.5 162.7 Sources IBRD estimates and projections.  ANNEX I Page I of 10 MAITI STATISTICAL APPENDIX Table of Contents Table No. Pa&e No. 1.1 National Accounts, 1984-88 . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 1.2 National Accounts, 1984-88 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 2.1 Balance of Payments, 1984-88 . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.2 Composition of Merchandise Exports, 1984-88 . . . . 10 2.3 Composition of Merchandise Imports, 1984-88 . . . . 11 2.4 Direction of Trade, 1984-87 . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 3.1 General Government Operations, 1984-88 . . . . . . 13 4.1 Summary of External Debt Operations, 1984-88 . . . 14 4.2 Official Grants, 1984-88 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 5.1 Selected Price Indicators, 1976-88 . . . . . . . . 16  ANNEX I 7~ -'Page 2 of 10 Tablo 1.1: HAITI: NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, 1994-88 (Gourd* millon) FY84 FY85 PY80 FY87 FY88 Gross Dometic Product m.p. 9802.0 10047.0 11218.0 10812.0 11064.0 Not Indirect Taxes 016.0 778.0 15.0o 780.0 085.0 Resource Balance -821.0 -850.0 -468.0 -842.0 -752.0 Exports of WNFS 1657.0 1510.0 1468.0 1408.0 182.0 Iports of CNFS 2408.0 2800.0 2110.0 2246.0 2184.0 Total Expenditures 9908.0 10897.0 11878.0 11064.0 11600.0 Total ConsumKtion 8402.0 9466.4 10650.7 10254.0 10556.0 Private Consumption 7470.0 8800.4 9500.7 9114.0 9446.0 Genwral Government 992.0 1100.0 1142.0 1140.0 1109.0 Gross Domestte Investment 1441.0 1480.0 1226.8 1400.0 1251.0 Gross National Product 0988.0 9974.0 11184.4 10789.0 10981.0 Gross Domestic Saving 020.0 500.6 S87.8 558.0 499.0 Net Factor Income -99.0 -78.0 -88.0 -78.0 -78.0 Net Current Transfers 225.0 240.8 260.1 201.0 317.1 Gross National Saving 740..0 748.4 748.0 7e0.0 748.1 Source: Haitian Institute of Statistics; Bank of the Republic of Haili; 1WF.  -8 A- Page 3 of 10 Table 1.2: MAITI--NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, 1964-fl ------- (FY 1970 Gourd illion) FY64 FY65 FY"6 FYT7 FY60 Oross Domestle Product m.p. 6071.0 5064.0 5113.0 6142.0 6065.0 Net Indirect Taxes 844.0 891.0 871.0 884.0 802.0 Agrbeultur. 1626.0 1607.0 1670.0 1680.0 1668.0 Industry 117.o 1191.4 1146.4 1141.0 1144.7 (of which Manufacturing) 688.1 eMA.i 760.6 768.0 708.0 Services 1924.0 1664.6 1917.6 1987.0 1660.8 Resource BlenIe -NOB.9 -B87.0 -875.1 -405.0 -860.0 Export of CNFS 1017.0 9658.0 866.4 686.0 012.0 Imports of GNFS I"S.9 1848.0 1248.6 1301.0 1198.0 Total Exponditure 5487.9 5471.0 5466.1 607.0 5451.0 Total Consumption 4470.6 4086.7 4774.1 4660.6 4616.0 Privat. Consumption 8944.7 4089.2 4286.8 4860.5 4848.0 4Gnoral Govornment 626.1 696.6 6587. 600.0 478.0 rosvs Domestic Investment 967.1 686.8 714.0 746.6 686.0 ros National Product 5016.0 5047.8 5074.4 6106.9 5081.8 Gross Domestic Savings 496.8 658.2 827.8 256.6 212.0 Not Factor Incom -54.4 -86.7 -86.6 -85.1 -88.7 Not Current Transfers 128.6 120.9 120.2 185.2 146.4 Oro" National Saving 564.6 487.5 406.9 856.6 826.5 Capacity to Import 912.1 860.9 656.8 618.1 775.6 Tores of Trade Effect -104.9 -96.1 -11.0 -22.9 -86.2 Gross Domeetic Income 4966.1 4988.9 5101.4 6119.1 6026.8 Source: Haition Institute of Statistics; Bank of the Republic of Hilti; IF.  ANNEX I Page 4 of 10 Table 2.1: HAITI--BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 194-88 --- million) - - -__----------- __-_-_- __ --_-_ -------__ -_ --_ -_-_- __-_---- _-_---- _________ FY64 FY65 FYM8 FY8T FY88 Exports of Good. A NFS 817.8 804.2 291.6 280.6 276.4 Marchandia. Export. 229.5 217.4 216.2 200.6 206.6 Non-Feetor Servlesn 67.6 66.6 76.4 00.1 69.6 Imports of Goods A NS 481.6 466.8 428.8 449.0 426.9 Merchandie Imports 298.4 288.0 258.1 269.4 254.5 Non-Fantor Serviees 188.2 185.8 170.2 179.6 172.4 Resource Balance -164.8 -164.1 -182.7 -166.4 -150.5 Factor Services and Transfer. 25.2 88.56 86.8 41.7 47.1 Not Fector Incoma -19.6 -14.6 -16.7 -14.5 -16.8 Fctor Receipts 4.6 4.7 4.0 6.2 6.2 Factor Payments 24.8 19.3 21.8 19.7 22.5 of which: Interest payments 18.8 18.1 15.1 12.8 18.8 Not Current Transfers 46.0 48.1 62.0 6e.2 68.4 Current Raeeipts 90.0 95.4 10S.4 118.1 124.1 Current Paymnt. 45.0 47.2 ca.4 56.9 60.7 F. Current Account Balance -189.1 -180.6 -96.4 -126.7 -108.4 Long-Term Capitol Inflow 141.8 118.5 138.6 175.6 186.6 Direct Investment 4.5 4.9 4.8 4.7 10.1 Officll Capital Grant. 78.2 87.8 106.7 121.8 98.1 Net LT Loans 46.7 61.6 82.0 60.7 17.6 Disbursements 58.1 65.2 48.2 67.9 42.8 Repaym"ets 11.4 13.6 11.2 27.2 26.2 Other LT Inf lows (nt) 12.4 -26.8 -8.9 -11.7 12.7 Total Other Items (net) -29.4 7.4 -7.6 -16.7 -16.1 Net Short Ter Capital -1.2 -9.5 -0.2 -4.0 -1.0 Capital Flows N.E.I. -8.2 13.6 -7.1 -6.1 -8.2 Net Chnge in Arrears -6.8 9.6 2.4 -0.5 1.0 Errors and Omlesion. -13.7 -6.3 -2.7 -8.1 -11.9 Capital Account 112.4 126.85 129 168.8 121.4 Overall Balance -20.7 -4.7 82.6 82.1 18.0 Financing Changes In Not Reserves 26.7 4.7 -82.6 -82.1 -18.0 Net Credit from IMF 21.6 -9.4 -17.6 -18.2 -22.3 Other Reserve Change 4.9 14.1 -15.0 -18.9 4.3 ( - Indicates Increase) Sourcest Bank of the Republic of Haiti; IIF, R1acont Economic Developments.  - 10 - AtEX I Page 5 of 10 Table 2.2s HAITI--COMPOSITI0N OF MEROANDISE EXPORTS, 1984-88 ------- (USI IIIion) FY1984 FY198S FYIM8 FYI"?8 FY1988 Total Merchandise Exports 229.6 217.4 216.2 200.S 208.8 Agricultural Exports 0s.5 60.0 72.1 51.7 57.1 Coffee 45.6 48.6 57.5 80.5 89.4 Coco 4.5 6.9 C 5.1 4.1 Eossnttl Oils 6.0 4.8 4.8 8.8 0.1 Other Agricultural 12.6 6.6 5.8 8.8 7.5 Manufactures 124.7 128.9 180.1 181.8 189.1 Other exports *_/ 86.8 28.9 14 l 11.4 (in percent of total) Agricultural produets 29.8 80.6 88.8 25.0 27.6 Manufactures 54.8 50.4 60.2 C6.7 66.6 Other . 16.8 11.0 6.5 8.5 5.6 (annual pereent changes) Agriculturel products -5.4 -2.8 8.8 -20.8 10.4 Manufactures 24.2 1.8 2.6 1.8 4.0 Other * 02.8 -34.2 -41.4 21.4 -82.9 *J Includs minor manufacturing exports Source: Dank of the Republic of Haiti; Ministry of Comerce and Industry; Customs administration; IF.  ANNEX I - 11 - Page 6 of 10 Table 2.8: HAM-,C0SITmCN OF MERCHOIASE IMRTMS, 1904468 ---------- 1USS mlIton) 1984 196S 19S5 1987 1936 Total erchandise mports J 852 8S8.9 298.4 817.7 S00.1 Food product* 79.8 65.9 69.8 70 69.6 Beverages and tobacco 9.1 6.7 7.9 6.8 4 Row materials 18.1 12.2 6.7 11.2 9.8 Fuel and lubricants 61.4 68.9 60.6 60.8 46.4 of which: petroloum and derivatives 60.1 51.7 47.8 41.6 44.2 Fats and *II* 88.7 81.8 88.9 85.6 80.8 Chmlca l products 48.1 42.2 86 88.4 84 Manufactured products 7d8.8 n.9 6o 59.8 54 Machine and transportation 60.6 62.5 es 65.4 61.6 other Manufactures 87.6 40.5 88.6 85.8 29.2 Other a 8.9 8.8 4.5 4.5 B lance of paymwts adjustments bJ -88.4 -115.8 -66.0 -59.1 -48.8 (in percent of total) aJ Food and beverge 20.4 21.1 21.0 20.8 21.5 Raw mautrials 8.0 2.7 2.4 8.0 2.9 Fuel and Lubrlcant 14.1 14.2 13.6 18.4 18.5 Fate, olls, and chemcal produets 17.6 16.4 19.0 19.7 16.6 Machines and manufactured products 88.5 S5.7 88.5 88.2 88.8 Other 9.8 9.9 10.2 10.6 9.6 (annual percent changes) cJ Total -5.2 -5.1 -10.6 2.6 -4.6 Food and beverage 1.0 6.4 -16.4 -1.2 -8.8 Row materials 4.8 -6.9 -26.7 28.7 -12.5 Fuel and Lubricant 0.2 4.1 -20.5 -1.0 -7.8 Fats, oIls, and chemical products 10.8 -4.8 -20.1 8.2 -12.9 Machines and manufactured products 5.2 *.9 -28.8 1.6 -7.5 aJ STTC classification as reported by Customs, plus balance of payment adJustents. bJ Adjustments for gros mports of light assembly industry products.