Rwanda - Specialized training study

Do_t f The World Bank 1OR OMCIAL USE ONLY Report No. 6180-RW RWANDESE REPUBLIC SPECIALIZED TRAINING STUDY August 25, 1986 Education and Manpower Development Division Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Office This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  GLOSSARY BAI0 Banque Africaine de Oeveloppement (ADB) (African Development Sank) BIT Bureau International du Travail (ILO) (Internationai Labour Organization) SPES Bureau Pedagogique de l'Enseignement Secondaire (Curriculum Center for Secondary Education) CEPET Centre de Formation et de Perfectionnement .Methodologique pour Professeurs de l'Enseignement Technique (Training Center for Technical Teachers) CERA! Centre d'Enseignement lural et Artisanal Integre (Center for integrated Rural and Xon-Industrial Education) CFPP Centre de Formation et de Perfectionnement Professionnel (NVTC) (National Vocational Training Ceater, CNFPP Comith National de Formation et de Perfectionnement (NVTE) Professionnel (National Vocational Training Board) ETFP Enseignement Technique et Formation Professionnelle (Technical Education and Vocational Training) ETO Ecole Technique Officielle (Official/Secondary Technical School) MINEPRISEC Ministere de l'Enseigrtement Primaire et Secondaire (Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education) MINESUPRES Ministere de I'Enseignement Sup6rieur et de la Recherche Scientifique (Ministry of Higher Education and Science Research) MINIFINECO Ministere des Finances et de l'Economie (Ministry of Finance and Economic Atfairs) MINIFOP Ministere de la Fonction Publique et de la Formation Professionnelle (Ministry of Public Administration and Vocational Training) MINIJEUCOOP Minist&re de la Jeunesse et des Cooperatives (Ministry of Youth and Cooperatives) MINIMART Ministere de l'Industrie, des Mines et de l'Artisanat (Ministry of Industry, Mines and Crafe Trades) MINIPLAN Ministere du Plan (Ministry of Planning) MINITRAPE Minist4re des Transports et de ['Energie (Ministry of Transportation and Energy) .NUR National University of Rwanda SFCS Service de Financement et des Constructi ns Scolaires (School Financing and Construction Service) I CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Units Rwanda Franc (RF) Year US$= 1982 RF 92.84 1983 RF 94.34 1984 RF 100.17 1985 RF 101.26  RWANDESE REPUBLIC Specialized Training Study Table of Contents Page I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 II. OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY ....................... . 6 III. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LABOR MARKET IN RWANDA . . ...... . . .. . . 10 The Labor Force in Rwanda . . ........... . .. . .lO.... 10 Labor Force Skills ........ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 11 Occupational Categories in the Modern Private Sector . . . . . . . . . . 13 Skills in the Modern Private Sector ..................... 15 The Public Sector . . . . . . . . . .. ............. . ... 16 IV. SUPPLY OF TECHNICAL EDUCATION AND VOCATIONAL TRAINING . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 History of Technical and Vocational Training in Rwanda . . . . . . . . . 20 Institutional Setting . .. . . . .. ... . . . . . . .......... 20 Vocationalization of Primary and Post-Primary Education . . . . . . . . . 22 Technical Secondary Education ...................... 22 Vocational Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Teacher Training . . . * *.. . . .. . .. . .. .. . . . ...... . .. 28 Employer Opinion of Vocational School Graduates . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 V. MATCHING SKILL SUPPLY AND DEMAND ......... ............ 30 Current Procedures . . . . . . . . . . . . . ; . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Future Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 VI* STRATEGY##3 General Criteria .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Recommendations for a National Strategy on Vocational and Technical Tiaining .. ......... ...... 37 Ways and Means .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 39 ANNEXES I. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE STRATEGY . .................... . 43 A. Strengthening MINIFOP as an Institution . . . . . . * . . . . . . . * 43 B. Civil Service Continuing Education Unit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 C. Training of Technical Teachers ...............,. 53 II. MOBILIZATION OF RESOURCES TO BE CHANNELED INTO INITIAL MEASURES . . . . . . 56 This report is based on the findings of two missions that visited Rwanda in June and October 1985. The members of the missions were H. Baritsch and R. Sack (consultants). The report was prepared by B. Millot (EAPED) with the cooperationt of H. Baritsch.  LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1. Labor Force by Educational Level (1978) . . . . . . . . 12 Table 2. Distribution of the Employed Labor Force by Occupational Category, and Proportion of Job Technical Content, Rwandese Modern Private Sector, 1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Table 3. Minimum Monthly Wages (1980-83) . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 TabLe 4. Civil Service Remuneration Scale (1985) . . . . . . . . 19 Table 5. Public Industrial Technical Schools . . . . . . . . . . 24 Table 6. Summary of Recommendations and Associated Funding Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Table 7. Implementation of Training Strategy: 58 Assistance Required . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58  1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A. Background 1.01 In the last decade, the Rwandese authorities have introduced several reforms aimed at reducing the mismatch between the education and training system as a whole and perceived national needs. They have been assisted in their efforts by external donors, especially the World Bank Group (e.g. its Third Education Project). However, in spite of the strong emphasis on rural and agricultural needs in school curricula and commitments to diversified and less academic formal education, vocational and technical education has remained a relatively unorganized subsector, with insufficient relevance to the labor market. A serious lack of data on both the costs of operating technical schools and the magnitude of manpower needs has thwarted attempts to map a smooth and rational development path for the vocational and technical education subsector. 1.02 The purpose of this study is to lay out a strategy for the subsector, and to recommend some of the first actions to be taken for its implementation. Mainly focused on the modern sector of the Rwandese economy, the proposed strategy is flexible enough to be extended to other urban activities. The recommendations made, which aim at improving the productivity of labor in both public and private employment, are based on an analysis of the state of the labor market, an assessment of the supply of technical and vocational skills, and an investigation of the processes for matching skilled manpower supply and demand. B. The Labor Market 1.03 According to the survey undertaken in 1985 as the initial step in this study (see para. 2.10), the following features are characteristic of the labor force employed in the modern sector of the economy: (a) predominance of unskilled and semi-skilled personnel and limited presence of middle-level staff, particularly in technical occupations (highly skilled workers, technicians, supervisors); (b) strong presence of expatriates at the professional level, particularly in the private sector; (c) prevalence of skill acquisition through on-the-job learning, and only marginal presence of people with full-scale skill training;  -2- (d) heavy reliance in filling medium-level positions on internal promotion based on on-the-job experience; (e) pay scales tied to "academic" rather than "non-academic" job qualifications (mostly in the public sector); (f) importance of informal sources and methods for recruiting personnel in addition to/instead of the officially sanctioned system; (g) high degree of job stability (except in the construction industry) and correspondingly minor fluctuations in labor patterns; (h) overall low labor productivity, and emergence of an increasingly disturbing gap between the performance profile of the labor force and the requirements posed by more advanced production methods. C. The National System of Technical Education and Vocational Training 1.04 The supply of occupational skills is marked by the following features: (a) predominant role of MINEPRISEC (Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education) as the sole provider of certified occupational qualifications (although the implementation of a 1985 law might reshuffle roles among ministries); (b) general tendency to lengthen formal schooling and invest more in non-industrial disciplines; (c) prevalence in technical schools of training with the dual function of preparing students for later, higher-level studies and direct entry into a job; (d) high drop-out rates, low internal and external efficiency, and high prodiction costs in technical schools (paralleled by a lack of reliable data on cost and financing structures); (e) lack of employer involvement in determining training objectives, and consequent poor matching of curriculum content and employer needs; (f) virtual absence of arrangements within the country for training technical teachers at all levels and in all specializations, and consequent dependence on expatriate teachers; (g) total absence of in-service training in the private sector and for other than office-related occupations in the public sector (exception: Ministry of Transportation and Energy); (h) limited in-service training arrangements to prepare civil servants for specific functions;  -3- (i) development of new technical schools in response to the availability of external financing rather than to identified long-term needs; (j) development of privately owned and operated technical schools or centers in response to social demand for education, generally of poor quality. D. Procedures for Matching Skilled Manpower Supply and Demand 1.05 The matching of skill requirements and skill production is affected by the following problems: (a) lack of reliable quantitative data on labor market development and future manpower needs, as the MINIFOP (Ministry of Public Administration and Vocational Training) system for regular and continuous collection of such data is still in its infancy; (b) overemphasis by MINIFOP on control and placement functions, at the expense of labor-market data monitoring; (c) fragmentary data on the various civil service staff categories, and consequent lack of a clear over-all picture of the employment situation in the arena of public administration; (d) lack of knowledge within the civil service of needs for function-specific training and upgrading; (e) insufficient disaggregation of the manpower (and, hence, training) needs created by development projects, supposedly a task for MINIPLAN (Ministry of Planning); (f) little new recruiting forecast in the civil service sector; (g) most foreseeable need in the private sector is for middle-level technicians and in just a few areas such as management and mechanics; (h) employers have no means of making known their projected skill requirements or of channeling this information into the decision-making process. E. Recommendations for a Strategy 1.06 The first set of recommendations addresses the need for a reliable information base for the strategy: (a) the Direction de 1'Emploi (Employment Division) at MINIFOP should devote increased resources to (i) continuous monitoring of labor market data (including wage data) through regular surveys, and (ii) processing of data on supply and demand flows (computerization would be indispensable here);  -4- (b) the Department of Human Resources at MINIPLAN should provide MINIFOP with medium- and long-term forecasts on skilled manpower requirements, especially thoise associated with new development projects; (c) MINIPRISEC - under the current structure - should assess the internal efficiency of technical and vocational schools and undertake studies on their costs of turning out graduates; patterns of fitancing and equity of access should also be analyzed. 1.07 The second set of recommendations focuses on the establishment of an efficient institutional base; (a) a National Vocational Training Board (NVTB) should be established to guide actual formulation of the proposed training strategy, ensure its coordinated implementation, monitor its results, and advise the government on questions associated with training requirements and training financing; with a membership representing the providers and prospective beneficiaries of training, national planning agencies, and established labor and employer unions, NVTB should oversee the proposed National Vocational Training Center (NV-,) to be financed under the Third IDA Education Credit; (b) the Direction de la Formation (Training Division) at MINIFOP should be upgraded to a Direction Generale (Department) and assigned additional staff to help implement the new strategy; (c) essential to the success of the training strategy would be the involvement of the private sector in: setting training targets and deciding curriculum content; contributing financially; and deciding how best to compensate skills acquired through training. 1.08 The third priority should be to provide quality-oriented training for educators; Practical training for instructors should be provided through the NVTC once it has become fully operational. Academic training for technical secondary school teachers should be provided through the existing Department of Applied Sciences at NUR; in addition, they should be trained in the acc.ompanying indispensable practical skills through the NVTC and in educational/teaching skills through the African Development Bank project at the Kicukiro technical secondary school or possibly in NUR's Department of Educational Sciences. 1.09 The fourth priority should be to increase current civil service productivity: A Civil Service Continuing Education Unit would have to be set up to: (i) evaluate training needs, and (ii) monitor experience with the program at the School of Public Finance funded by the Bank Group at MINIFINECO (Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs). Meanwhile the existing scholarship program should be expanded and made more selective.  -5- 1.10 The fifth priority should be better coordination of skills supply: 'Training delivery systems under the new strategy would initially comprise the NVTC, the centers now run as technical,schools by MINEPRISEC, and privately operated centers that meet minimum standards of training quality. Eventually, mobile training units working out of centers such as the NVTC in Kigali could be stationed for specific periods in main towns as additions to the training delivery system. 1.11 The initial steps toward implementation of the proposed strategy will require technical assistance, some of which has already been provided through the IBRD Third Education Project and the Project for Improved Management of Public Finances. Additional requirements would mean expenditure of roughly US$3 million (US$1.5 million of it on assistance for strengthen: the Department of Employment) and would add approximately US$150,000 to an, recurrent costs (see paras. 6.15-6.t6 and Appendix II).  -6- II. OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY General Obiective 2.01 The objective of this report is to help the Government of Rwauda to formulate a strategy for the technical education and vocational. training subsector that is both realistic and consistent with national economic development needs. This sector paper, produced with this end in view, describes the present state and desirable development of the links between the technical education and vocational training (ETFP) system and the labor market on which the modern sector of the economy depends. It also incorporates recommendations for optimizing those links and for strengthening the ETFP system, which, with assistance from the World Bank (in the form of the Third Education Project) has begun to reorganize and expand. Context 2.02 One of the priorities set in Rwanda's Third Economic, Social and Cultural Development Plan (1982-86) is to improve the use made of the country's human resources by providing increased employment opportunities and more carefully designed training. Not surprisingly, the main focus is on primary education, in which only 65% of children belonging to the corresponding age group were enrolled in 1983, and on secondary education, where the enrollment rate the same year was only 5%. The Plan also focuses, although to a lesser degree, on the ETFP system, in which only 4,000 secondary-level pupils were enrolled for the 1983-84 school year. The percentage of the population currently attending Rwanda's technical and vocational training centers, and the number of individuals graduating from them annually (approximately 1,000), certainly do not provide a firm enough factual foundation on which to base a judgment whether the output of the ETFP system is satisfactory or not. The only sound way to judge the absolute figures that make up the picture here is to look at how occupational skills are distributed across the labor market. 2.03 Although the array of statistical information one would normally use to approach a question of this sort is still not complete, several sources confirm that the modern sector of the Rwandese economy is short of qualified personnel. According to 1978 census figures, for instance, only 2% of the labor force had progressed beyond the primary education level, while 63% were illiterate. The weaknesses, both quantitative and qualitative, of the basic general education available in Rwanda have an impact on the rest of the educational pyramid, although it is particularly apparent in the area of technical and vocational training, which is not only too small in scope but also ill-adapted to what is required of it. Furthermore, the technical and vocational training services available in the country do not attract the kind of specific administrative attention that might succeed in making them the vehicle for a full-scale policy on the subsector. The centers now in operation are run by a number of authorities and groups without any well-formulated project they are all ready to pursue. The changes now being made may provide the right circumstances for designing such a projeict.  2.04 To the generally poor skill level of the labor force -- which has generally acquired its training on the job -- must be added perceived and foreseeable skill .requirem..nts in particular "pockets" (the A3 level in the mechanics and textile fields, for example). The concentration of expatriates in both technical and administrative managerial positions is equally indicative of the need for a highly-skilled labor force. 2.05 These needs go hand in hand with a surplus of a certain type of educated (rather than skilled) manpower and widespread under-employment (in the vicinity of 30%), but under no circumstances should these factors be considered a pretext for not developing training, both general and technical/vocational. Localizeci surpluses are often the reflection of distortions of institutional origin imposed on the labor market and liable to create mistaken expectations. The improvements sought in the links between the ETFP system and the real needs of the labor market, plus the attempt to give back to wages their normal economic role, cannot fail to reduce the risk of localized surpluses. 2.06 As to youth under-employment, its multiple and complex causes are essentially the result of the extent to which the creation of new employment opportunities lags behind population growth (3.7Z per annum). The expansion in school enrollments, affected first and foremost by the population growth rate, tends to push that rate down over the long-term. The universalization of primary education is at one and the same time a proven method of bringing down the birth rate and the necessary foundation for the type of labor force the ETFP system can equip with the required skills. 2.07 There are at present skill deficits, replacement requirements and development needs (e.g. associated with expanding activities) to which the present ETFP system cannot respond satisfactorily. It is in order to create the right conditions for a well-thought-out and cost-effective response that the World Bank has just committed itself to participating in the financing of a project calling among other things for a technical school, a vocational training center, and technical assistance arrangements intended to strengthen the ministries with the main responsibility for training in Rwanda. 2.08 These concrete measures need to be accompanied by the kind of deeper thought that must be put into enunciating the outlines of a strategy for: - setting up a workable system of tracking both public and private sector skill requirements by area of economic activity; - adapting (and, in the long run, reinforcing) Rwanda's technical training potential so as to provide people entering the labor market for the first time with the types of skill for which there is actual demand; - designing a system through which to provide the right kind of vocational training for workers who already have jobs.  -8- Methodology 2.09 The approach selected: The study takes as its frame of reference the modern sector, in the sense in which that term is currently used. The choice is justified by the growing importance of this sector in the Rwandese economy and by the fact that it is precisely the shortage of skilled manpower that is one of the main obstacles to its rapid expansion and development. There is no implication, however, that the country's traditional economic activities are to be treated as less important. For one thing, the potencial of the self-employed sector is well recognized, as is the need to improve productivity in farming. Furthermore, it is the Government's stated intention to encourage small-scale enterprises and labor-intensive production. But nothing in all this can be taken as an argument against paying proper attention to the particular needs of the modern sector where the availability of skilled manpower is concerned. In any case, even if the strategy selected focuses initially on this sector, it is designed to be ei..ended, mutatis mutandiss to the t7pes of economic activity that are more traditional in character - although one must admit that the dividing line separating modern from traditional activities is frequently blurred and fluid. 2.10 Although the terms of reference for the study did not call for precise quantitative assessment of future needs by branch of activity, type of job and/or skill level, it was essential, if a strategy was to be formulated, to carry out a detailed analysis of the labor market, the ETFP system and their integration. Since the last complete statistics on manpower in Rwanda dated from 1978, full-scale analysis meant that a survey of private sector employers had to be conducted to collect more up-to-date and significant data. The sample (consisting of 67 firms employing 12,000 wage-earners) was put together from a list of private firms compiled by MINIFOP's Labor Inspection Bureau. Interviews with employees of the firms in the sample and with Government officials provided further information to round out this data base. 2.11 Regarding the ETFP system and its articulation with the labor market, the study relied on official statistics, more voluminous and up-to-date, as well as numerous interviews with officials of the different organizations concerned. 2.12 The Two Phases of the Study: (a) Phase r, carried out during the summer of 1985, was devoted to the survey, interviews and analytical work mentioned above and to producing the following three background documents: - Technical Education and Vocational Training: Preparation for Employment in the Modern Sector; - Employment in the Modern Sector; - Employment and Training in the Modern Sector.  These documents were submitted to the Government in February 1986, at the same time as a consolidated report by the Education Division of the World Bank's Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Office. The four papers together provided the basis for the conversations held with the Government in March 1986. (b) Phase II of the study was.taken.up in the preparation of this present report.  III. CHARACTERISTrCS OF THE LABOR MARKET IN RWANDA The Labor Force in Rwanda 3.01 Recent data on the labor market is scarce, so that the researcher is forced to make do with projections based on the estimates put together by the International Labour Organization in 1981 1/ or the 1978 census figures. By extrapolating the population growth rate observed between 1978 and 1982 to the period 1982-1986, one obtains a figure on the size of the work force in 1968 of 3.5 million (3.4 according to the Development Plan). 3.02 The structure of the labor force by branch of economic activity in 1978 indicates that agriculture then employed 93% of all workers, the remainder being divided as follows: 2.7% in industry (mining, manufacturing, and construction), and 4.3% in services. By taking only those members of the labor force who are employers (1,100), wage-earners (190,900) or apprentices (2,200), one arrives at an approximate figure of 194,000 individuals (or 7.3% of the labor force) aj being employed in the modern sector ia 1978. After removal of its agricultural segment from the picture, the modern sector thus defined would consist of no more than 140,000 workers. An estimated 25,000 additional jobs appear to have been created in the sector between 1977 and 1981. 2/ 3.03 The distinction made between modern and traditional economic activities is especially blurred -- ar-d arbitrary -- in the manufacturing sector, where 65% of all manpower is either self-employed or in the family-helper category. Agro-food activities predominate in it, with a mere 80-100 enterprises employing over 30 people each. 3/ Although it is a dy-namic sector in which modern activities exist side by side with non-industrial and traditional services, its fragmented nature must be taken into account when a training strategy is being devised for-it. The fact it consists of so many small enterprises, often comprising only the owner and one wage-earning assistant or an apprentice, is a sure sign of a low level of formal skills training and a wide range of skill requirements (expressed or not). 1/ ILO, Le Defi de lemploi pour le Rwanda, 1984. 2/ World Bank, Appraisal Report, Third Education Project, Rwanda, March 1986. 3/ World Bank, The Manufacturing Sector: Performance and Policy Issues, Rwanda, March 12, 1985.  -L1- 3.04 The results of a survey of 11,300 independent workers in one of the urban communes of Kigali 4/ show this segment of the labor force to be concentrated in the distribution of farm products, commerce, beverage outlets and restaurants (27Z), and in the secondary sector in construction and public works (142). In neither case is the impact of new technology felt rapidly, and the subgroup is not one where high skill levels, or any perceived need to raise them, can be expected. 3.05 With 42,700 wage-earners in 1978, the public sector in the broad sense is by far the country's biggest employer and accounts for 30% of the modern sector. Education and health alone employ 54% of all public service personnel. 5/ Even in the public sector, however, accurate computation of personnel is difficult once one moves beyond the "regulated," or established, categories which make up the civil service proper. Many teachers for instance are in the "contract" category, where there is considerable turnover. The size of the civil service wages bill for education helps make the national education system one of the Government's principal areas of expenditure (27% of the total budget). Labor Force Skills 3.06 In 1978, only 2.2% of Rwandese manpower had completed the primary education cycle. The fact that the number of members of the labor force with vocational training (29,000) was a little higher than the number (28,000) who had received formal schooling beyond primary level is perhaps an indication that the modesty of the stock of skills in the labor force is more the product of the weakness of basic education than of a widespread preference for it (Table 1).  -12- Table 1 Labor Force by Educational Level (1978) In Thousands % Illiterate t683 63.2 Primary education not completed 700 26.3 Primary education completed Secondary education not completed 217 8.2 Secondary education completed 22.6 0.8 Vocational training 1.6 0.1 Higher education not completed, 28.8 1.1 higher education degree 3.6 0.1 Not determined 5.2 0.2 Total 2661 100 Source: Third Economic, Social and Cultural Plan, 1982-1986. 4/ ILO, Census of Self-employed Individuals in the Urban Commune of Nyarugenge (Kigali), Kigali, January 1986. 5/ Republic of Rwanda, Third Economic, Social and Cultural Development Plan, 1982-86.  -13- Occupational Categories in the Modern Private Sector 3.07 Generally speaking, the manpower employed in this sector is poorly skilled and poorly supervised (2.5% only of all manpower falls in the professional category). The picture obtained from the survey is, however, fuller than would appear to be the case initially. 3.08 In the first place, the mining sector, given its particular nature (and importance), should be isolated from the others. In the second, the occupational categories tied to given educational levels should be used with caution. The following i3 the system observed in principle: Category Educational Level Rwandese Classification (Supposed) (1) Professional University level AO (2) Intermediate Secondary education Al, A2 completed (3) Skilled Cycle I (or equivalent) A3 of secondary education (4) Unskilled Primary education -- The schooling requirements for A3 classification often seem to be lacking. 3.09 Allowing for these warnings on method, the survey suggests the (situation dipicted) in the accompanying table, No. 2.  -14- Table 2 DrSTRIBUTION OF THE EMPLOYED LABOR FORCE BY OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORY, AND PROPORTION OF JOB TECHNICAL CONTENT RWANDESE MODERN PRIVATE SECTOR, 1985 All Sectors All Sectors, Industrial Sector except Mining Occupational % Proport. 2 Proport. S Proport. Catagories dist. of tech. dist. of tech. dist. .f tech. Professional 2.4 46.6 4.0 40.9 3.0 34.0 Intermediate/foreman 4.4 57.5 9.2 57.5 5.4 58.9 Skilled 28.5 67.4 43.3 61.8 46.9 74.4 Unskilled 64.4 1/ 43.5 1/ 44.7 1/ Total 100.0 22.9 1/ 100.0 33.1 1/ ioo.o 39.11/ (N) 2/ (12144) (2780) (5834) (1935) (1760) (689) _/ Unskilled per-onnel are assumed not to have any "technical" responsibilities. 2/ Numbers in sample. Source: From H. Baritsch, Employment and Training in the Modern Sector, World Bank, 1985. (i) The proportion of skilled workers (classifications AO to A3) exercising a technical (as opposed to an administrative) activity is 48% in the private sector (mining excluded) and 71% in its manufacturing subsector. (ii) The proportion of technical workers declines the higher the occupational category (moving down from 62% for classification A3 to 41% for AO - all non-mining sectors consolidated). (iii) Mid-level supervision is poor in all sectors, but particularly in industry, where supervisors represent only 5.4% of manpower; only 59% of mid-level supervisors in industry are technicians.  -lS- 3.10 The predominance of operations personnel is consistent with a situation where modern technology is little used and innovation is still rare. Labor force productivity is low, as is investment per job position created. The weakness, in the chain of the occupational hierarchy, of the link between technicians and wage-earners/self-employed individuals is characteristic of a "centrifugal" labor market which concentrates its manpower at the extremities of the hierarchy, to the detriment of the intermediate-level positions. Access to these positions is more often a question of internal promotion than direct recruitment, a practice which reflects both a declining supply of the sk.lls in question and preference on the part of employers for in-house training, which fits in with resistance on the part of "old hands" who are experienced but have no diplomas. The ratios between administrative and techn .cal personnel, characteristic of a modern sector which still devotes relatively few resources to management (of inputs or outputs) are of interest: Admin. Personnel Tech. Personnel Professional 1 1.1 Intermediate 1 1.4 Skilled 1 3.4 Skills in the Modern Private Sector 3.11 The majority (68%) of the skilled wage-earners in the sample had acquired the skills required in principle for the positions they held through on-the-job training. The reliance placed on apprenticeship varies from one sector to another and depending on the occupational category in question, with workers in technical jobs more often obtaining their skills by this method than those in administrative jobs (the case with 802 of A3-level technical workers). It is in the various branches of the secondary sector that on-the-job training is the principle means of obtaining necessary qualifications (72% of workers in construction and public works). In the service industries, on the other hand, vocational training wins out (547 in commerce, 57% in banking). The true picture therefore appears to be that formal technical education has so far contributed little to formation of a labor force with the technical skills needed to ensure good work productivity in Rwanda's modern economic sector. There is no inference to be drawn from it that the quality of the on-the-job training given de facto in secondary enterprises may not be high, although it does reflect the fact that the scarcity of technical schools has been a feature of the development of Rwanda's modern sector, which has had to rely entirely on itself in recruiting and training the manpower needed. Such schools are still few and far between. 3.12 Although not numerous in absolute terms, non-African foreigners hold 412 of all professional positions included in the sample, and 71% of them are concentrated in this category. The gradual replacement of these expatriates by Rwandese nationals indicates that appraisal of university training needs  -16- has become more accurate in judging what skills the edonomy calls for. Foreigners of African origin, on the other hand, are numerous at the lower levels of the occupational hierarchy, making up 0.6% of all unskilled or se,ni-skilled workers, 4.12 of skilled workers, and 4.52 of the foreman group. 3.13 At the present moment, there is no official policy on employment in Rwanda linked to a policy on training. In other words, no systematic effort is made to prepare Rwandese nationals specifically for the roles today played by foreigners in the private sector. Such a policy would clearly not be easy to implement, especially not in the upper echelons, since it is well-qualified foreigners who also bring risk capital into the Rwandese economy. Considerable investment in schools and other types of training center would also be required, although funds are not easily found for these purposes. Moreover, education and training in Rwanda are still developing on the lines marked out by demand rather than by judicious forecasting, the only visible sign of an employment policy being noted in the area of recruitment: when there is a post to be filled, MINIFOP, which handles the recruitment proceedings, gives preference to Rwandese nationals. 3.14 The compensation structure - or at least the picture of it obtainable from the legal minimum wage scale (Table 3) -- appears to provide the incentives that make it worth while to acquire skills. Minimum wage differentials at the various skill levels are substantial: Skilled worker (Grade 3): Unskilled worker (Grade 1) 7.7 Senior technician (Grade 3): Skilled worker (Grade 1) 2.6 Senior technician (Grade 3): Unskilled worker (Grade 1) 12.6 Actually, the differentials are larger, since it is the practice to pay skilled manpower above the legal minimum, which is not the case with unskilled labor. In other words, the scarcer a skill is, the higher the wage offered. Supervisory personnel are not compensated according to the minimum wage scale. The obvious weakness of the data available on compensation in the private sector is a significant obstacle to proper channeling of school-system investments, which ought to be based on awareness as to the particular sectors and the particular skill areas where demand is heaviest. In its turn, that demand is reflected in the wage levels offered, a fact which must clearly be grasped better. The Public Sector 3.15 For several years now, civil service recruitment has outstripped the rate at which the schooling system graduates pupils. The result is a paradox: while the civil service is over-staffed, it lacks skilled personnel. Since established ci -1 servants enjoy guaranteed employment, ministries try to expand their staffing tables with skilled personnel. Increasing the rate at which the schooling system turns out graduates would not solve the problem, given the current financial constraints on recruitment.  - 7- Table 3 MINIMUM MONTHLY WAGES (1980-83) Minimum Ratio to wage Ratio to wage monthly wage of utskilled of skilled 1981-83 worker worker (RF) (Grade 1) (Grade 1) Unskilled Workers Grade 1 2500 1.0 Grade 2 3750 1.5 Grade 3 5250 2.1 Apprentices Grade 1 6750 2.7 Grade 2 8250 3.3 Grade 3 9750 3.9 Skilled Workers Grade 1 12000 4.8 1.0 Grade 2 14400 5.8 1.2 Grade 3 16560 6.6 1.4 Grade 4 19320 7.7 1.6 Technicians Grade 1 16560 1.4 Grade 2 20640 1.7 Grade 3 23805 2.0 Senior Technicians Grade 1 22080 1.8 Grade 2 25300 2.1 Grade 3 31625 2.6 Source: MINIFOP, Annual Report, 1983  -18- 3.16 Judging by the occupational categories into which its staffing structure is divided, the civil service seems much better provided with skilled personnel than the private sector. One civil servant in every five belongs to categories AO and Al, which in principle require a university education, while 682 of all personnel belong to categories A2 and A3, entry to which is conditional on possession of a secondary education diploma. However, the June 1985 survey suggests that these requirements, at least during a certain period, were no more than theoretical: only 79Z of personnel in the highest category, namely AO, met the official education requirements. In addition, the general academic qualifications of personnel actually possessing the required diplomas do not always have much to do with the individual's assigned field of activity. The conclusion, then, is that the civil service is probably a worthwhile potential target for retraining and advanced training, although there should first be a more thorough evaluation of the likely impact. The slackening off in recruitment, a result of present financial constraints, makes this potential still more strategic as far as improving public sector performance is concerned. 3.17 The demographic structure of the civil service only reinforces the above observations. According to MINIFOP estimates, out of the 6,800 established civil servants identified in 1984, the average age was 33 for men (65% of the total) and 29.3 for women. Here is a massive cohort of civil servants who will be responsible for public affairs over the next quarter century at least, despite the fact their training for such responsibilities is known to be inadequate - c formally, then certainly from the standpoint of quality. If this hums apital invested in the public sector is to become truly productive, it will need to be brought up to standard systematically, a challenge the present ETFP system is no more equal to than MINIFOP. Any system designed to provide further training must ensure that technical aptitudes receive more attention than general knowledge, which has not been the case so far. In addition, a solution must be found to the problem of how to capitalize on the knowledge/skills acquired through further training. 3.18 Present civil service salary scales make a cast-iron connection between a recruit's formal educational qualifications and his or her initial salary level. They also show a certain flattening (Table 4), prescribing higher pay rates for unskilled work than are seen in the private sector. Moreover, the spread between the salaries paid at the two extremes of a grade is greater at the lower than the higher echelons. Finally, in the particular case of the teachers who recently received a salary increase, it was applied on a sliding scale (like the earlier increases approved for the civil service as a whole). As a result of these different adjustments - and considering only gross figures - the least qualified teachers are in a more favorable position than their civil service colleagues of equivalent rank, who are. themselves apparently better paid than their counterparts in the modern private sector. Although these salary improvements were designed to encourage primary school teachers, the intended stimulus may be undermined by being linked to function instead of performance.  Civil Service Remuneration Scale (19851 CIVIL SERVICE TEACHERS Occupational Category Gross monthly Gross monthly and Educational Grade salary (RF) Grade salary (RF)A/ Qualifications a I or AO Secretary General 41239 Sr. Sec. School Teacher (Class 1) 44538 (bachelor's, master's. Department Director 37950 Sr. Sec. School Teacher (Class 2) 40986 and doctoral degrees) DivisAon Chief 33270 Sr. Sec. School Teacher (Class 3) 35932 Section Chief 30233 Sec. School Teacher (Class 1) 32652 Unit Chief 27324 Sec. School Teacher (Class 2) 29510 Administrative Chief 23782 Sec. School Teacher (Class 3) 25685 II or A1 Senior Civil Servant 22770 Asst.Sec. School Teacher 24592 (Senior High School) Civil Servant 20838 {Class 3) AssC.Sec. School Teacher 22SOS (Class 4) III or AZ Principal Junior Officer 17940 Primary School Teacher 19734 (Junior High School/ Junior Officer 16836 (Class 2) 06, D7) Assistant Junior Officer 15456 Primary School Teacher 18520 (Class 3) Primary School Teacher 17002 (Class 4) IV or A3 Senior Agent (Class 1) 14112 Assistant Primary School 15523 (D3, 04, 05) Teacher (Class 1) Senior Agent (Class 2) 12816 Assistant Primary School 14098 Teacher (Class 2) Senior Agent (Class 3) 11700 Assistant Primary Sthool 12870 Teacher (Class 3) V Senior Agent 10350 Instructor (Class 2) 11903 (EMA, ENA, ENIA) Agent 8850 Instructor (Class 3) 10178 Assistant Agent 7SOO Instructor (Class 4) 8625 --------------------------------------------------------------------- _------_ ---------------------------------------- Source: MINEPRISEC A/ including proposed 1986 increases. tn * Grades on the same line are equivalent. In Categories I and II. teachers, salaries -- for a given grade -- exceed those for other categories of civil servant by 8%. In Categories III and IV, the difference is 10%, while in Category-V it is 1S%.  -20- IV. SUPPLY OF TECHNICAL EDUCATION AND VOCATIONAL TRAINING History of Technical and Vocational Training in Rwanda 4.01 After independence, the Rwandese education system developed mainly around general education. Initially, no specific qualifications had been designated for specific positions in the public administration, apart from a good general education, so not surprisingly the system concentrated on general studies, with scholastic success coming to be judged solely in terms of performance in them. In addition, students have tended to spend longer and longer in the school system. 4.02 These two factors in combination led to increasingly longer-term investments for the benefit of general academic subjects. As holders of. primary school diplomas became more numerous, they were gradually replaced in the civil service by others with secondary school diplomas, and these in their turn had to face competition on the restricted labor market from new university graduates. In the course of this process, the secondary school came to be considered essentially as a way station on the road to a university education. The setting of rigid links between type of diploma held and grades in the civil service contributed to this expansionist movement, as did the social pressure for education and the demand from the public sector for skilled workers. 4.03 Since it was the general academic tracks alone which afforded access to a higher grade or cycle in the education system, there was heavy demand for them, to the detriment of the vocational or technical tracks. The circumstances surrounding the earlier development of Rwanda's education system still nave repercussions on the present situation: the shortage of skilled technical manpower, the preference of individuals for general education, and the opposing preference of employers for on-the-job training are features that have carried over from that earlier period. While general education was developing in this manner, the only real formal technical education in the country was obtainable at the Kicukiro official technical school (ETO), which operated under government supervision but benefited from bilateral aid arrangements, and the school at Save. However, their combined capacity plus that of various other structures - formal or informal, but generally set up on an ad hoc basis - very quickly proved unable to satisfy the need for skilled manpower. Institutional Setting 4.04 There is still no agency in a position to provide informed advice on all facets of Rwanda's technical education and vocational training (ETFP) system. Within the Government, major decisions are taken by interministerial committees, which, however, scarcely ever take account of the employers' viewpoint. In theory, a National Committee on Employment has existed for years, but did not meet for the first time until 1985. Employers are represented on it as a group by the Rwanda Employers Association, whose activities are minimal.  -21- 4.05 In the absence of any national-scale agency in a position to coordinate the activities of the ETFP system, two ministries have specific administrative responsibilities. So far the more important of them has been MINEPRISEC, mostly because for practical reasons it holds the monopoly on providing young people with the skills for working life. But perhaps the most notable thing about its organization chart is the absence of a unit with specific responsibility for those secondary-cycle tracks that provide direct preparation for future employment. Conceptually, it is perfectly feasible that such a unit might not exist. If all secondary schools (at least in theory) provide vocational training, there might Le the perceived need of specialist inspectors for technical institutions, whether they be industrial, agricultural, paramedical, etc. But when the number of technical subjects t.aught in each school increases, a special ministerial unit incorporating one section to deal with each technical specialization would seem to be necessary if there is to be any guarantee of uniformity in the way the curriculum is followed and training standards are met. As far as curricula are concerned, it is MINEPRISEC, through its Bureau pedagogigue de 1'enseignment secondaire (BPES), which is theoretically responsible for planning the curricula for all types of secondary institution, including the strictly technical. In practice, BPES has been flexible enough to bring faculty members of the Kicukiro Official Technical School irnto the task of preparing curricula for all secondary industrial trade schools. 4.06 The former Ministry of Public Administration and Employment became the Ministry of Public Administration and Vocational Training (MINIFOP) in 1984. Since the agency was already responsible for in-service training for civil servants, it had a unit responsible for vocational training matters, which has now expanded into a Vocational Training Division. In other words, the Ministry has the administrative framework to allow it to take over entire responsibility for vocational training. For the moment, however, the Division is understaffed. 4.07 MINIFOP has hardly begun to take up its new functions in the sphere of vocational training. So far, such specialized ministries as Public Works and Energy (MINITRAPE) and Transportation and Communications have remained fully responsible for the centers which meet their own in-service training needs. When their vocational training role was challenged some time ago by MINEPRISEC, the latter was held to have simply delegated its responsibilities to them as technical ministries - illustrating the extent of MINEPRISEC's quasi-monopoly on vocational training and technical education, which were automatically treated as pre-employment training and so therefore the province of the "schools". In the circumstances, the designation of MINIFOP as the arm of the government responsible for vocational training was a necessary step in the right direction. All the same, much clearer delineation of the boundary lines between ministries and of their specific responsibilities within the ETFP system is essential if the country's scarce resources are to be used to best advantage. The National Vocational Training Board to be set up under the IBRD-financed Third Education Project, which is to supervise and guide the activities of the National Vocational Training Center and consist of representatives of other concerned ministeries and the private sector, will have an important role to play in this regard.  -22- 4.08 The new legislation passed in 1985 (see para. 4.12) extending the secondary education cycle to six years will probably mean a new division of responsibilities. MINIPRISEC will undoubtedly be "relieved" of responsibility for specialized training, which will be returned to the various technical ministeries concerned (e.g. MINISANTE for paramedical education). Removal from the sphere of for.mal academic education is very likely to endow the technical training centers with much greater flexibility and enable them to adapt better to now developments in the fields for which they train their students. From this standpoint, the 1985 legislation can be expected to prove beneficial. However, if it is to do so, the separating out of the technical tracks must not be taken as the sign of a decisive break away from the conventional schooling system, or in practical terms as a downgrading. It will therefore obviously be crucial to provide bridges between the technical and general academic tracls if the risk of seeing educaLional subjects relegated to an inferior position is to be avoided. Vocationalization of Primary and Post-Primary Education 4.09 One of the aims of the 1979 educational reform was to reestablish a balance between general education and technical training. It attempted to move all levels of the schooling system toward a greater degree of vocationalization. In 7th and 8th grades - the two years the reform added to the old six-grade primary cycle - pupils are supposed to receive the kind of practical training in a workshop setting that will enable them to develop their creative capacity. This type of pre-vocational instruction, which ought to have justified the additional two years of primary school, appears in practice to be poorly focused and of doubtful quality (instructors not trained in these activities). 4.10 Children who complete primary school but are not goit., on to the second cycle (22,600 in 1983-84) are channeled to the CERAIs, to follow a three-year post-primary, pre-vocational course focusing on the skills needed to improve life in a rural setting. The CERAIs, like the Youth Training Centers run by MINIJEUCOOP, lack any clearly defined vocation, well-thought-out curricula, or organized instruction; as they are poorly equipped and staffed by mostly under-qualified teachers, whatever education they provide is of poor quality. Although not enough data is available on which to judge the extent of it, there seems to be a movement of CERAI ex-students toward the modern urban sector, the explanation for which is the shortage of A3-level wage-earning and self-employed technical workers; the result is that such jobs are filled by young persons ill prepared for them. Technical Secondary :ducation 4.11 Reforms at the secondary level: As far as the secondary schools were concerned, the reforms meant that in future their curricula would have to combine general academic development and preparation for working life; the only exception was the humanities track, which was to be retained as a vehicle for preparing pupils for university studies. As to duration, the reform provided for a choice of modes, from a four-year cycle for the training of skilled A3-level independent workers to six-year cycles for A2-level technicians and full-term secondary tracks leading to university studies.  -23- 4.12 in April 1985, the National Assembly passed legislation requiring that all secondary tracks last-six years and that all students completing the cycle successfully be admitted to the university. If actually implemented, this law will to all intents and purposes defeat the practial aims of the reform at secondary level, turning secondary schools back into what they were previously, namely institutions devoted exclusively to preparing their pupils for higher education. Executive Orders are in preparation embodying the rules and regulations required pursuant to this legislation, and, it is to be hoped, specifying exceptions to it that will help mitigate the risks of over-investment in education and the inflexibility that involves. 4.13 For the moment at least, the trend toward lengthening of the secondary-cycle is very markedly selective in character: with a rate of progression from primary to secondary of 9%, Kwanda, according to the statistics available 6/ appears to hold the African record for strictness. However, when under the double pressure of universalization of primary education and social demand this same rate is applied to a larger population base, and when the rate itself increases, it will become much more difficult to regulate the flow of young people through the secondary cycle. As for the immediate future, the narrowness of the base from which recruitment is possible and the preference for lengthy general studies are not factors likely to favor the expansion of technical training. 4.14 Government industrial training facilities (Table 5): The three technical secondary schools (ETOs) currently in operation combine a four-year training course for skilled A3-level wage-earners and independent workers and a six-year course for A2-level technicians. Management of the two tracks within a single institution - meaning that instructor time, workshop facilities and equipment have to be shared - creates problems likely to be difficult to solve while the system lasts. One problem is that students in the skilled wage-earner/independent tradesman categories (680 in 1983-84) log only 1,300 workshop hours throughout their four-year course, certainly not sufficient to give them the skill level expected of members of this group (2,000 hours being the generally accepted minimum). 4.15 Furthermore, only a few trades are taught in the ETOs, namely general mechanics, auto mechanics, electrical wiring, welding, construction and carpentry. They teach none of the modern trades which would enable the Rwandese to make full use of the new technology they are increasingly exposed to, e.g. sanitary ins-tallations, office machines, cooling and air conditicning, radio and electronics, etc. The lack of training in these fields at either technician or skilled-worker level is clearly an obstacle to proper maintenance and maximum performance of equipment, and, in more general terms, to the gradual creation of the kind of infrastructure needed as a basis for modern activities. 4.16 The schools are regarded as adequately provided with equipment, but there appears to be a shortage of Rwandese nationals qualified to teach the technical subjects on their curricula. Consequently, despite a very high 6/ Comparative Education Indicators, World Bank, April 1986 (an unpublished document).  -24- Table 5 Public Industrial Technical Schools Skilled Workers (A3) Technicians (A2) Present Project- Present Project- No. ed No. No. ed No. Status Kicukiro Gov't. technical (Kigali) 60 a/ 60 80 b/ school Kanombe Technical school (Kigali) 60 nd 20 60 b/ (West German technical assistance) Save Skilled worker (Butare) 40 72 - - training center (extension financed by ADB) Kibungo - - - 72 b/ New school (ADB financing) Cyangugu - - - 72 b/ Project (ADB financing possible) Gikongoro - - - 60 Project (North Korean assistance) Muhororo - 48 - 14 Project (feasibility study by PISA-Kigali Group); European Development Fund financing possible Kibuye - - - 30 b/ New school (financing under Third IDA Education Project) a/ A3-level training is to be discontinued. b/ Minimum output expected. Source: World Bank, Appraisal Report, Third Education Project, March 1986.  -25- enrollment rate (1:7.5), the percentage of students who complete their course (65Z) is low, with many drop-outs (one student in every three). Another drawback is student weakness in basic general subjects, including French. The success of technical instruction, however much it is improved on individual points, will always depend on the quality of the education the student has received beforehand; from a pedagogical standpoint, unless it is supported by solid general knowledge, it never succeeds in inculcating into students the type of enduring technical know-how they need to be able to exercise a skilled occupation. 4.17 Information on the cost of the two modes of training available is fragmentary, partly because vocational and technical training, instead of forming a separate system, is still merely an extension of the general education apparatus. In the same vein, the combination of two training tracks (skilled workers/technicians) in these schools makes it difficult to estimate costs separately for each. The World Bank mission to Rwanda in June 1985, through a case study of the Kicukiro ETO (industrial tracks), arrived at the following cost estimates: Cost/Student/Year Cost/Graduate (RF) (RF) Skilled worker (57,300 - 59,600) 7/ (333,700 - 389,300) 8/ Technician (458,700 - 549,700) 4.18 The annual ETO unit cost is approximately 19 times that incurred in the primary and post-primary system; the general secondary education system coefficient is 16, not much lower than in technical and vocational training. These per-student cost figures are considerably below the average for technical education calculated for the group of low-income African countries that includes Rwanda (US$696 in 1983). 9/ In contrast, given the serious drop-out rates, cost per graduated student is very high. At all events, these assessments, like the data on the real distribution of financing throughout the educational system, must be treated with caution. 4.19 Private-sector industrial training resources: At present, two private technical schools offer training in auto mechanics, using the MINEPRISEC curriculum. Their premises, workshops and equipment leave much to be desired, but they fill a useful role, by providing some structural activity for young people who would otherwise be idle, although this is hardly the purpose of a technical training institution. Any change in the foreseeable 7/ The first figure is for the year 1979/80 and the second for 1980/81. 8/ First figure: low unit costs, low drop-out rate; Second figure: high unit costs, high drop-out rate. 9/ Source: World Bank, Statistical Tables on Education in Africa, 1986 (unpublished document).  -26- future is unlikely, since-instruction in the industrial trades requires investment on a scale beyond the reach of educators; in the few cases where interested educators might have the necessary capital, the prices parents would be asked to pay for the technical training offered would be prohibitive. 4.20 Public-sector commercial training resources: The public education centers which focus on the tertiary sector of the economy have benefited from the steps taken as part of the reform movement to vocationalize secondary education. In numerous cases, the general academic content of courses has been cut back and simpLy replaced by commercial subjects, a partial substitution that has produced a spectacular increase in enrollments over the last two years (up from 460 students in 1979/80 to 1,640 in 1983/84). Since the reform, four tertiary tracks have opened up: (i) secretarial skills; (ii) commerce and bookkeeping; (iii) legal and management; and (iv) economics. Despite the dearth of hard data on quality- of inputs in education focused on the tertiary sector, the lack of teaching aids and materials is obvious at most centers. 4.21 Private-sector commercial training resources: The private sector plays a much larger role in commercial than in industrial training, generally for two reasons: (i) since occupations in commerce/business are much more sought after than manual or industrial jobs, training for them coincides more closely with the aspirations of secondary-school students and their parents; (ii) it is less costly in terms of equipment and specialized teaching personnel to provide instruction in the commercial than in the industrial field. Although quality of instruction at private schools teaching industrial occupations is very mediocre, a number of private commercial schools are good, and probably better than their public-sector counterparts. The private sector actually makes a contribution to commercial education, in terms of numbers as well as quality. Even if none of the new commercial tracks has yet produced graduates, in either the public or private sector, since over half of all first-year instruction in commerce is given in private institutions, their impact on the supply of manpower in this sphere will obviously be considerable. 4.22 In certain very specific instances, the actual situation is very different from what was expected. Training for paramedics and rural workers, for instance, has deviated considerably from the guidelines contained in the Third Development Plan. In both cases, although priority should have gone to training personnel in the A3 category, the preferred courses in new projects have been those leading to an A2-level diploma. 10/ Vocational Training 4.23 In addition to the final years of primary school (7th and 8th grades), the CERAIs and the Youth Training Centers, there exists a wide range of instruction providing a mixture of technical education and 10/ Ministry of Planning, Evaluation Report on Third Development Plan, 1982-84, Kigali, January 1985.  -27- preparation for employment. The lack of a centralized authority with clear responsibility is more acutely felt here precisely because the private sector is more active than in purely techninal education. 4.24 Three types of vocational training in Rwanda's modern sector can be distinguished: (i) training prior to employment, provided by training institutes; (ii) advanced training, provided by specific institutions; and viii) on-the-job initial training for new employees or advanced training for existing personnel. In practical terms, the distinctions are sometimes blurred: trainees at the Nyamirambo Training Center or at the Small Industry Training Center, for example, work virtually as apprentices, whose output is probably marketed and who are therefore in the same position as employees receiving on-the-job training. Whether or not a firm which engages in parallel training activities is considered as a training center is simply a question of convenience in recruiting trainees and obtaining external financial aid. Advanced training in specific-purpose institutions is available only for occupations in commerce. Under current plans for the creation of a National Vocational Training Center, facilities providing advanced training for persons already employed will be available for occupations that require a high degree of manual skill also. 4.25 Public-sector industrial training resources: The Ministry of Transportation and Communications runs schools that dispense instruction of a specific kind. The Ministry of Public Works and Energy, on the other hand, trains or retrains its staff in its own center, but, although the skills taught there may also be of use to outside workers, the center in not open to non-Ministry personnel at the moment. There is a potential here for attracting a wider public and for putting a stock of instructional and technical experience to use in meeting a need that exists beyond the confines of this one government agency. The Ministry's Roads Department has its own Training Coordination Committee, which organizes courses for personnel at various levels. In addition to providing training within the Department itself, the Committee also makes use of the Murambi Professional Training Center and the Mihima Advanced Training Center. World Bank road projects invariably contributes to the financing of these operations and to the technical assistance provided through them. 4.26 Private-sector industrial training resources: Apart from facilities for training apprentice tailors and dressmakers, Rwanda currently has eight training centers with a total of 750 students enrolled, over 60% of them at the center for young catholic workers. These figures should not be compared with those on vocational training available within the schooling system. The length of training differs from center to center, as does the type of equipment available to students and the qualifications of their trainers. No data are available on which to estimate the number of hours of training provided in the various centers, information which could be compared to the number of full-time trainees attending a school or taking part in an apprentice program. In actual fact, a number of these centers are so mediocre in quality that they can hardly be considered as part of the pre-employment training apparatus.  -28- 4.27 Public-sector commercial training resources: The only public-sector training center of this type is run by MINIFOP at Muhima, where the courses available have been designed fkom the beginning for government workers needing training in typewriting and bookkeeping. The results are considered satisfactory in the sector, despite the gaps in students' knowledge. The courses will be continued, since there is a limited but ongoing need to provide this type of office worker training, which will no doubt eventually reflect the planned improvements in basic education. 4.28 Private-sector commercial training resources: Four centers offer training in typewriting and have an approximate total of 220 students enrolled. Since course length and admission requirements vary from one center to another, so does the quality of the training. One of the four also offers bookkeeping courses. Singe some of them also offer boarding facilities for girls from outside Kigali, boarding and training costs cannot always be separated, since the staff fill other roles besides serving as instructors. Although there is no systematic follow-up, the personal contacts staff keep up with former pupils indicate that a good number of the latter do find jobs. Teacher Training 4.29 As long as technical and vocational education remained a relatively unimportant subsector of the Rwandese schooling system, the Save and Kicukiro ETOs were enough to provide teacher training, with fellowships abroad bridging any gaps. Following the expansion of technical and vocational education, however, new needs emerged which the present machinery is unable to meet. Several solutions are proposed: (a) For the short-term, the Kicukiro ETO will be expanded by the addition of a Training Center for Technical Teachers (CEPET), which will mainly use the ETO premises and equipment to provide a one-year training course -- with a particular emphasis cn educational theory - for 20 teachers. (b) For the long-term, a higher-level technical teacher training college is planned for NUR's Ruhengeri campus, although at the moment it appears the project cannot be justified either educationally or financially. (c) A third option would be to have various instrumentalities join forces to respond to the present spectrum of needs: - the National Vocational Training Center planned as part of the World Bank's Third Education Project, to provide refresher training for instructors attached to the CERAIs and the Youth Training Centers; - the Training Center for Technical Teachers (CEPET), to provide instruction in educational methods for A3-, AZ- and Al-level secondary-school teachers;  -29- - the NUR School of Sciences, to provide academic instruction in their technical fields for Al-level secondary-school teachers. When a choice is made here, due weight should be given to the costs involved, the needs created by the new schools pladned, and the prospects for gradual substitution of Rwandese nationals for the expatriate teachers whose services are now used. Employer Opinion of Vocational School Graduates 4.30 One aim of the June 1985 survey was to discover the extent of employer satisfaction with any graduates of vocational schools they hed recruited. Only 43.12 of all employers interviewed actually employed such graduates for technical positions and 47.2% for clerical/administrative positions - figures which demonstrate that present specialized training facilities are altogether unable to meet the needs of all the enterprises which should employ personnel with these qualifications. The sutvey findings also demonstrate that large concerns get the better of medium and small businesses in employing vocational school graduates, both in Kigali and outside it. Banks and the manufacturing sector employ most clerical/administrative graduates, the manufacturing sector alone employing most technical graduates. 4.31 Although general satisfaction was expressed with the results of specialized training, there were some criticisms of the vocational schools. One frequent observation, mainly on the subject of technical school graduates, was that the curricula followed were too theoretical and not practical enough. Not surprisingly, therefore, one third of employers interviewed thought they should take a greater part in developing curricula if there was to be any improvement in the quality of training. Only a few, however, subscribed to the idea that they might also help equip the training centers by donating machinery and ma*erial that no longer met modern production requirements but would be quite serviceable for training purposes.  -30- V. MATCHING SKILLS SUPPLY AND DEMAND Current Procedures 5.01 The present methods of pairing skills in supply and skills in demand are mostly in the hands of MINIFOP, at the cost of some confusion and of too great a work burden for a government department without enough qualified personnel. MINIFOP's functions here are: (a) collecting data on the status of the labor market (i.e. statistical monitoring); (b) providing an iaterface between supply and demand, which means: - keeping the tally of positions vacant, recording positions wanted, keeping files on persons seeking employment and firms offering it, compiling statistics on those matters and on job search times, placement failures, etc. (i.e. statistical monitoring again); putting employers in contact with those seeking positions (i.e. the placement function); - recruiting in the public sector; - intervening directly to ensure that the placement process is balanced both geographically and ethnically (i.e. the guidance/oversight function). (c) forecasting needs (still in its infancy). Carrying out these three functions efficiently is clearly a difficult task, and anyhow the emphasis placed on the guidance or oversight function tends to work to the detriment of the other two. A system of annual and quarterly MINIFOP reports on the labor market has been instituted and is supposed to facilitate the continuous statistical monitoring of the wage situation. Employers are probably daunted by the detailed nature of the questionnaires used and the obligation put on them to provide full payroll lists (worker's name, sex, year of birth, ethnic group/nationality, vocational qualifications, date employment began, job held, wage, occupational category, grade within that category, Work Permit Number, Social Security Number, etc.). The insistence on detail is a function of the many simultaneous aims pursued by MINIFOP's Employment Department. 5.02 For its part, MINIPLAN has conceptualization, research and survey functions, which mesh well with the more routine functions left to MINIFOP. The allocation of taiks between the two ministries in this particular area seems well balanced. 5.03 Private sector: MINIFOP is officially responsible for recruiting for all jobs at level A3 (secondary education authenticated) and above. Private-sector placements are organized through its Employment Division, which  -3 1- processes positions vacant notices from employers and responds by selecting candidates, until a choice is finally made by the employer. Employers interviewed complained of a surplus of pre-university and generalist applicants and too few university- and technician-level applicants. This is either a sign of imbalances in grades of manpower available or of a possibility that those seeking and offering higher-level jobs may tend to short-circuit the official placements machinery, which then finally handles only the less successful type of candidate. The June 1985 survey of employers confirms that, while they take care to regularize their choices after the event, they rely primarily on their own connections to fill vacant positions where higher levels of qualifications are required. Moreover, resort to the government placement agency often makes the recruitment process considerably longer, and so more expensive. In fact, MINIFOP's monopoly here appears to be loosening, and competition from other recruitment circuits may well both lighten the burden on the Employment Department and help it carry out this one of its tasks more effectively. Such a change should be encouraged. 5.04 The public sector: Recruitment for the public sector is the responsibility of MINIFOP's Public Administration Division, whether the cases involve replacements (of staff who have retired), new positions (associates with new budget items), civil servants, employees of parastatal agencies, local government personnel, or personnel associated with projects financed from external aid. However, the Division would appear to have full authority only when established civil service positions are being filled. Creation of new positions, for instance, involves the Ministry of Finance, while recruitment of local government personnel involves the Ministry of Interior. As far as the parastatals are concerned, there are examples of them recruiting directly. 5.05 The MINIFOP monopoly is therefore no tighter in the public than the private sector. In addition, given the present restrictions on government hiring, placement no longer has the same priority as before (although the guidance/oversi;ht function does). Contrastingly, however, projection of developments in supply and demand has taken on primary importance. This activity assumes that the government agency assigned the responsibility for it, although there is less control involved, will pay particular attention to the collection and processing of periodic data on graduations from the school system, employers' intentions, and such macroeconomic factors as have an impact on the level of demand. The question of the agency's location in the administrative hierarchy is an important one, since it should have both the necessary higher level staff and the benefit of firm political support. Linkage with the future National Vocational Training Center could prove a substantial advantage, with MINIFOP being designated the host agency. Future Needs 5.06 Demand by the modern sector in Rwanda for skilled technical personnel must be viewed as part of a macroeconomic context affected by major constraints:  -32- (i) The country's annual population growth rate of 3.7%, despite steady growth in GNP (5.4% over the period 1979-81), has meant only a modest increase in disposable per capita income. (ii) Medium-term economic growth will aot be as high as during the last ten years, nor are budget resources (50% of which come from the duties payable on foreign trade transactions, the future course of which is uncertain) likely to increase as rapidly either. 11/ The share of the budget assigned to education (approximately 24X), already very high, is unlikely to increase much. (iii) Economic pressure exerts a mechanical impact on the demand for education and on the primary school enrollment rate, which reaches its ceiling at 66%. To have to respond to this degree of demand with limited resources means a limited range of choices, namely those for which figures are given in the Education Sector Memorandum of June 1985. (iv) Finally, and again because of the rate of population growth, the labor force has expanded more rapidly than employment opportunities can be created, adding to rural underemployment and urban unemployment. Only 20% of the jobs the Second Plan predicted would balance the market have actually materialized. So far in the 1980s, an average of 80,000 young persons have become old enough each year to join the labor force. The Third Plan projects the creation of 44,000 new jobs annually, with 61% in agriculture and 30% in the non-agricultural sector. The latter is supposed to provide jobs for 13,000 wage-earners and 4,000 self-employed individuals annually, but the rate at which employment opportunities were created in the modern sector between 1977 and 1981 (4,000 per annum) hardly justifies the expectation that those targets will be achieved. 5.07 Against this background of heavy social demand for education, underemployment and uncertain economic prospects, there is nevertheless a demand for skilled manpower which mu&t be evaluated correctly since the resources (domestic and external) available for responding to it are limited. According to the Third Development Plan, annual deficits in skilled manpower will be as follows: Supply Demand Deficit Professionals and higher-level 240 400 160 technicians Mid-level technicians 1400 3400 2000 11/ It would seem prudent to regard the present rise in the price of coffee as temporary rather than signaling a trend (see World Bank, Country Economic Report on Rwanda, May 1986).  -33- According to scenarios modeled by the World Bank (in its Third Education Project Appraisal Report, 5805-RW), the annual deficits in A2- and A3-level supervisory staff will be 240-250 and 180-240 persons respectively by the year 1992. 5.08 Public sector: Recruitment to the civil service is open to individuals with a certain minimum of secondary education, but the annual growth rate may not exceed 0.51 (teachers excluded). The latter condition signals a radical break from the previous system, which guaranteed all graduates of the secondary and higher education cycles employment in the public adi.:inistration. In addition, the shape of the civil service age pyramid means that attrition over the medium-term will be very low. Recent recruitment to the established ranks, for instance, has fallen from 390 in 1983, to 330 in 1984, and to 120 in 1985. Assuming that civil service expansion is in fact held to 0.52 a year, and that only staff retiring at age 55 will be replaced, total annual recruitment figures will be: 60 persons between now and 1989 and 100 between 1989 and 1994. If 1984 figures are extrapolated, nearly 602 of these new civil service recruits will have technical training, although only a ministry-by-ministry study can provide the basis for a sound estimate of exact needs in each skill area. For their part, the parastatal agencies, which brought on approximately 120 new professionals and technicians in 1984, are in the process of reorganization, so that their recruitment plans are on no more than a very small scale (30 or so new positions a year). 5.09 It is in the formal education system, and at the primary level in particular, that staffing needs are most pressing and (in principle) easiest to estimate. As a practical matter, the number of teachers to be trained in future years depends on what decisions are made regarding the duration of primary schooling, recourse to the dual shift system, and what resources are allocated to each educational level. World Bank simulations (Education Sector Memorandum) estimate a need for between 1800 and 3200 teachers in 1990. At secondary level, between 300 and 500 teachers will be needed annually from 1985/86 to 1995/96. Until the decisions indicated above are taken, these forecasts cannot be refined and narrowed down. The need for teachers is very sensitive to sector policy objectives, and the more precise they are, then the more precise projections of the number of teachers required can be. In particular, any alteration of teacher/pupil ratios in the CERAIs (1:11) and secondary schools (1:14), all other things being equal, would have a significant impact on the number of teachers that should be trained. 5.10 Private sector: Here, an idea of annual demand by occupational category can be obtained from the MINIFOP Annual Report. Ia 1983 and 1984, figures showing total placements were quite stable: 1983 1984 Categories I and II (unskilled) 1612 1318 Category III (skilled) 1278 1051 Categories IV and V (technicians) 302 341 Categories VI and VII (professionals) 87 152 Total III-VII (skilled). 1667 1544  -34- 5.11 By contrast, the number of job seekers rose from 1,800 to 7,200, although improvements in the registration system are likely to have distorted the picture. Most job seekers use the official channels - those provided by the Employment Division - and are about to leave secondary school. It would be well worthwhile assembling the kind of background information that would allow correct interpretation of the data available on job seekers, their occupational skills, and their previous experience. On the face of it, judging from data assembled by MINIFOP, the most difficult requirements to meet (for lack of qualified candidates) are for professionals in the financial, commercial and technical fields and in accounting. 5.12 Careful examination of the Employment Division's central archive of "positions vacant" records for January, March and July 1985 shows that employers favored candidates with some initial job experience. Starting salaries of RF 30,000-40,000 were offered for A2-level technicians aged 25-30 with some years of experience in specific fields (e.g. mechanical, transportation, clerical administrative,. etc.). 5.13 Another basis for projecting private-sector needs is found in the forecast of investment capital requirements made by the banks. The Rwandese. Development Bank, which covers approximately 80% of such needs, puts the number of new job opportunities likely to be created at between 400 and 500 a year. 5.14 Finally, the June 1985 survey of employers demonstrates that 1984 recruiting operations were focused in the main on intermediate-level technical qualifications. According to the same survey, employers' recruiting plans for the following year indicated an upswing (+ 14.6%), their main focus being on the construction and commercial sectors and on job positions for technicians and professionals. 5.15 It is of interest to have such a range of vantage points, and continuing use should be made of all of them, since knowledge of the labor market and future movements on it can only benefit from this kind of variety. Moreover, there is a clear convergence as far as concerns the re.,uirement for technically skilled manpower. Being able to assess precisely what these needs will be at a particular moment and to respond appropriately means that a permanent mechanism is required to register exits from and entries onto the labor market, as well as employers' recruiting plans. On this score, the employers' associationi connected with the National Vocational Training Center would be of primary importance in steering job seekers toward an entity assigned the task of facilitating the job-market entry process. Greater transparency of methods of compensation in terms of skills and fields of activities would be equally useful in helping to pinpoint deficits more quickly and accurately and in adapting training resources accordingly. Ar. initial step in this direction would be a study giving a clearer picture as to how wage scales are set and how they evolve in terms of the expectations of both employers and employees.  -35- VI. THE STRATEGY 6.01 The foregoing material confirms that there are numerous disparities between what the modern sector requires by way of skilled labor and what the public and private sectors are able to offer by way of technical and vocational training. If these disparities can be identified, then a strategy to remedy them can be devised and its outline plotted. 6.02 The conditions under which such a strategy for the technical education and vocational training (ETFP) subsector can be formulated and implemented already exist: heightened awareness of the need for skills and for raising the productivity of the labor force, and a new sensitivity to the physical and financial constraints that make rational utilization of physical resources inescapable. The new projects to set up technical secondary schools (whether or not they actually go ahead -- at Muhororo, for instance) are equally conducive to development of a well-balanced pool of skills over the medium-term. In addition, the most recent legislation and the uncertainty as to its proper field of application makes the need to formulate a well-integrated strategy even more pressing. Finally, World Bank assistance to the subsector (the Kibuye Technical School, the National Vocational Training Center, technical assistance arrangements with MINIFOP, the training center at MINIFINECO, the training centers at MINITRAPE, etc.) provides additional encouragement and stimulus. General Criteria 6.03 Given the nature of the situation described so far and the constraints inherent in Rwanda's general circumstances, any vocational training strategy should be geared to the country's overall economic development plans, but particularly to achieving optimal utilization of a more skilled labor force and fostering labor-intensive activities. With these ends in view, it should satisfy the following criteria: (i) Focus mainly on the modern sector, but at the same time be flexible enough to meet the specific training needs of the non-industrial sector. (ii) Respect the role traditionally played by MINEPRISEC in training technicians, but give a clear and unambiguous definition of MINIFOP's responsibilities for providing pre-job and on-the-job training -- except in areas as specific as farming and nursing, where the technical ministries concerned will provide it. (iii) Besides endeavoring to ensure that new arrivals on the labor market possess the basic skills they need from the outset, emphasize ways of upgrading the skills of those already employed, with a view to increasing overall labor force productivity.  -36- (iv) To that end, eliminate the traditionally simultaneous support for general education and vocational skills; instead, organize training in sequential fashion in relatively short sessions that inculcate skills saleable on the labor market and, wherever possible, in a form that lends itself to modularization. (v) Give the role the Governmenrt should take in the development of training all the importance it merits, but also give both employers and wage-earners the opportunity to make known riot only their particular needs but also their opinions on what would constitute a coherent training policy and what its objectives in terms of both numbers and quality should be. (vi) Enable employers to contribute directly to trairing activities by providing either financing or materials, equipment and/or personnel (workshop instructors, teachers, etc.). (vii) As far as its numerical goals are concerned, the new policy should be based on data obtained from systematic and continuous monitoring of labor market developments and on properly detailed forecasts of the manpower needs generated by new de-telopment projects. (viii) Given the usual lengthy delay in updating traditional training methods to meet real employment market needs, a new system flexible enough to respond to change quickly should be introduced. This degree of flexibility means that vocational training must take a variety of forms, varying from apprenticeship and short-term ad hoc in-service training to (for example) training given outside the main geographical zones of economic activity from mobile training units. (ix) Such a newly flexible training system should be backed up by a mechanism that links compensation to verifiable vocational skills rather than to general academic qualifications. With this in mind, two types of experiments might be attempted: at the moment a new recruit is brought on staff, the wage fixed for the type of formal certificate held should be treatet as a base (a minimum) to be reviewed after (for example) a year's performance, which would then be evaluated and compensated accordingly. For a worker already holding a job, any training courses attended, instead of being accompanied automatically by a wage increase simply because of attenda.ace at the sessions, should be confirmed by an examination, with success in it being the condition for promotion. (x) There should be a parallel system for training teachers at the different levels and in the different specializations, using existing Rwandese training facilities wherever possible, particularly NUR's Department of Applied Scier.ces. (xi) The government agencies and other entities that would take part in the detailed formulation of the kind of vocational training strategy proposed, and subsequently in implementing both it and whatever supporting measures.were required, should be systematically strengthened.  -37- (xii) In the interests of coordinating and streamlining training for existing public sector personnel, it may prove effective to organize a concentration of resources within a Civil Service Continuing Education Unit. Recommendations for a National Strategy on Vocational and Technical Training 6.04 It is recommended that the Government of Rwanda adopt the technical and vocational training strategy described below and that it take the necessary political decisions - particularly in the area of the new legislation that would be required - to assure its implementation. The objective would be to improve the productivity of the labor force employed in the country's modern sector, both public and private, while leaving open the possibility of extending into training for self-employed persons. In order to achieve that objective, the strategy should focus on providing wage-earners, whether already employed or newly arrived on the labor market, with the kind of good-quality, higher-level vocational skills and know-how demanded by national training goals, by using different modes of training in a coordinated and cost-effective manner consistent with a general scheme which is both flexible and easily amended. 6.05 The different aims embodied in the proposed strategy are ordered according to the following scheme: (i) a reliable empirical base (Recommendations 1, 2 and 3); (ii) a solid institutional base (Recommendations 4, 5, and 6); (iii) a well-tested base of teacher training (Recommendation 7); (iv) improvement of civil service staff productivity (Recommendation