Haiti - Public expenditure review (Vol. 2 of 2) : Appendices

Report No. 6113+HA Haiti Public Expenditure Review (in Two Volumes) Volume II: Appendices September 29, 1986 Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This report has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  FOR OFFICIAL US ONLY MITI: PUBLIC KEIMWITaIa IZYI VOLUIN 11: APPIUDICRS TAML OF CONTENT Psae NO. APPENDIX I: ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS ............................. APPENDIX II: STATISTICAL APPENDIX ................ Inder of Tables .............,............................6 Tables ...........................................9 APPENDIX III: PROJECT-BY-PROJECT DATA ..............................114 Table of Contents.................................115 Explanatory Note .................................116 Project-By-Project Data ................................ 117-131 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Dank authorization.  APPEUIU I *CONC PIWECTIONS  -2- APPENDIX I WCONKlIC PROJMMTIONS 1. The mission updated the economic projections of Haiti: Policy Proposals for Growth, using FY85 data for the base year, and confirmed that report's conclusions. Three scenarios were compared; their basic assumptions are listed in Statistical Appendi.x Table 1.4. All three scenarios assume that the present negative level of international reserves cannot be allowed to continue and must rise to zero no later than FY90. 2. The Same case assumes no new agreement with the IMF, no structural change and continued declines in net flows of external aid, essentially a continuation of very recent trends: zero or negative export growth rates except for five percent growth by the assembly industry; continued payments arrears; five percent growth of external aid grants in current terms from their FY84-85 level of US$83 million; and new external concessional debt commitments around US$70 million per year in current terms, compared to their FY84-85 average of US$63 million. These increases in aid still result in declining net flows became of repayment obligations. 3. The Reform case assumes a new accord with the IMF and major structural reforms which shift resources toward production, especially for export, both encouraging donors to increase aid: exports grow at positive rates (except for tourism which continues to stagnate), the assembly industry in particular averaging 13 percent per year real growth through FY90; payments arrears are liquidated; aid grants grow at ten percent per year; and concessional debt commitments average about US$90 million a year. 4. The Aid case assumes no policy reform, as in the Same case, but increased aid levels to those of the Reform case. It thus reflects a scenario that is quite possible following the recent change of Government, in which donors increase their aid levels to indicate political support but the Government does not adopt policy reforms. 5. Summary projection results for FY85-89 are compared to past trends in Table ApI.1 (Statistical Appendix Tables 1.2-1.8 have detailed comparisons). The projection methodology is described in detail in the Anrex to Haiti: Policy Proposals for Growth. 6. The Reform case results confirm that the Haitian economy could indeed grow. They also incicate the drastic nature of the policy changes that would be needed: the marginal efficiency of investment would have to rise from the negative rates of FY80-85 and exports could grow from 16 percent of GDP in FY85 to 18 percent by FY89. The growth of public consumption would still have to be limited to three percent per year, the actual rate since FY81. Even then, however, private consumption would only return to its FY80 level after FY89. Under these conditions, GDP can grow at an average real rate of 3.5 percent, rising from 3.0 percent initially to 4.0 percent by FY89 (and thereafter continuing at 4.5 percent in FY90).  Table ApI.1: sImEW 00011MIC PElDCTI0. F -69 Actual Actual Projefted Actual Projected FY0 FM - 8- -8 -so89F U P03 AID SAM *F031 AID OM3 AIOAUKAL AOOO8V1 AOMm Level Average Anal -Gre- thb Rte (Us$ million at FM price) (pereent) gross histic Prodct 2062 2N00 2305 2134 2008 -0.5 3.5 1.5 0.0 Gros Domestic Irnestment 349 296 363 312 296 -3.2 6.7 1.3 0.0 Consuption 1896 1874 2079 2004 18568 -0.2 2.6 1.7 -0.2 Private 208 252 283 252 252 3.9 2.9 0.0 0.0 Pibli : 1668 1622 1796 1752 1606 -0.8 2.6 1.9 -0.2 Grees Domsstie Savimp 144 135 235 138 158 -1.3 14.9 0.6 4.0 Gros nwto Sawi"" 264 254 359 261 266 -0.8 9.0 0.7 1.2 Rxports of Goods ad Ws S/ 423 322 420 345 345 -5.3 6.9 1.7 1.7 Import at Gsoodo id Ws 629 483 868 519 483 -5.1 4.1 1.8 0.0 UAJANON Of PAWWNS Alaml Lerel (-$ -Billion at current prices) iswurose Daiieo -130 -161 -194 -227 -180 Interest Peevets" -7 -12 -13 -13 -12 Private Travsfers 62 61 72 72 66 Public Tranter (Greatt) 33 70 102 102 865 Current Account elano. -60 -42 -33 -65 -39 ILLT Loen (net) 69 31 85 85 65 Disbuorsaents 61 57 102 102 82 Amortisatiom 12 26 17 17 17 "MD. item P4pulation (tbousand) 4877 8332 5726 5726 6726 G P per capita (Us* FY8) 423 377 403 373 351 Consumption per Capita (UN FY85) 389 351 363 350 324 Terms of Trede (rFT=100) 116 100 103 103 103 Debt Service latlo 6.5 13.0 5.4 6.5 6.5 Exports/GVP (percnt) b/ 21.6 16.0 17.2 16.1 16.6 a/ Ajuoted for Gais folm Term of Tde. b/ Hot exports of goods and non-factor services uadjusted for Term of Trade. Scuare: Statistical Appendix Tebles 1.1-1.5 and 1..7.  -4- Population growth means that per capita income would not return to its FY80 level even by FY89, but it would be seven percent higher than in FY85. Net internationral reserves would be satisfactorily positive at US$68 million. Most important, the basis would thus be laid for sustained growth through the rest of this century. 7. The Same case, by contrast, shows the worsening poverty that will affect Raiti's already desperately poor people if structural change does not occur. There would be no growth. Per capita income in FY89 would be seven percent below its FY85 level and 15 percent below that of FY80. Total and private consumption would be below their present levels, even if public consumption remained at the same level. Net international reserves would still be a negative US$18 million. So disastrous is this scenario that it would probably not occur; instead reserves would probably not be rebuilt at all and the sociopolitical environment would be substantially weakened. Thus the economy would neither grow during the 19809 nor lay the basis for growth in the 1990s. 8. The Aid case shows that increased aid would roughly maintain per capita incomes but would not result in any increase by FY89. Net international reserves would be about zero by FY89. No basis would be laid for sustained economic growth in the 1990s. 9. All three scenarios involve an incre6se in external aid, at least in current terms. This is principally because disbursements have fallen in recent years, when expressed as a percentage of GDP. New aid commitments of about US$200 million per annum are assumed for the Reform and Aid cases and about US$170 million for the Same (Statistical Appendix Tables 1.6 and 1.8). This underlines both the continued need Haiti will have for concessional external assistance and the critical role internal policy change rather than external capital must play if economic growth is to be achieved. Increased aid alone will simply not suffice.  -5- APPEDIX II STASTICAL APPENDIX  -6- CHAPTER I 1.1 Total Population and GNP Deflator, FY80-89.........................9 1.2 National Accounts, FY80-85, and Projected, FY87-89................10 1.3 Balance of Payments, FY80-85, and Projected, FY87-89 ........... 11 1.4 Variables for High and Low Case Economic Projections .............. *12 1.5 Price Indices and Selected Indicators, FY80-85, and Projected FY87-89 ........... . 13 1.6 Grant Commitments, PY80-85, and Projected, FY86-89*0*....... .**..14 1.7 Medium and Long Term Debt, FY80-85, and Projected FY87-89.........15 1.8 Debt Commitments, FY80-85, and Projected, FY86-90.................16 CHAPTER II 2.1 Overall Public Sector Accounts, FY81-85...........................17 2.2 Finaucing of Public Sector Deficit, FY81-85.......................18 2.3 Public Sector Operations, FY81-85......................... 2.4 Treasury Revenue, FY81-85 .................. cc... ...........20 2.5 Treasury Operations, FY81-85 .....................................21 2.6 Summary Accounts of Principal Public Enterprises, FY81-85.........22 2.7 Treasury Budgetary Recurrent Expenditure, FY81-85, and Budget, F8 .............................. 2 2.8 Salary Component of Budgetary Recurrent Expenditure, FY82-85 aiid Budget,FY6.............................. 2 2.9 Government Employees by Ministry, FY71-85, and Budget, FY86.......26 2.10 Apparent Average Salaries of Civil Servants by Ministry, FY82-85, and Budget, FY86 ...... ...... ...... ............ 27 2.11 Sectoral Allocation of Public Investment, FY72-85, and Budget, F8 ............,2 2.12 Investment Expenditure by Sector and by Source of Finance, FY84-85, and Budget, F86....... ........c...... .... .......... 29 2.13 Ranking of Sectors by Investment Expenditure, FY84-85, and Budget, PY86 .......... 30 2.14 Ranking of Sectors by Treasury Investment Expenditure, FY84-85, and Budget, FY86.......... 31 2.15 Ranking of Sectors by Domestic Investment Expenditure, FY84-85, and Budget, FY86 .............. 2.16 Ranking of Sectors by Donor Investment Expenditure, FY84-85, and Budget, FY86 ..............3 2.17 Treasury Investment Expenditure, FY85: Disbursements According to Ministries of Planning and Finance e .............c..c.c..e.ccc34 2.18 Grant Disbursements by Donor, FY82-85 (Ministry of Plan Est.) .... 35 2.19 Grant Disbursements by Donor, PY81-85 (IBRD/IMF estimates)........36 2.20 Debt Commitments by Creditor, FY81-85 .............................3t 2.21 Debt Disbursements by Creditor, FY82-85.............................38 2.22 Investment and Savinags, FY80-85, and Projected, FY86-89 ........... 39 2.23 Recommended Public Investment and Financing, FY86 ................. 40 2.24 Recommended Public Investment and Financing, FY87.................41 2.25 Recommended Public Investment and Financing, FY88 ............... 42 2.26 Recommended Public Investment and Financing, FY89.................43 2.27 Donor Activity by Sector, FY82-85e................................44 2.28 Intended Donor Activity by Sector, FY86...........................45 2.29 Percentage of Project Costs Financed by Donors....................46  -7- CHAPTER III Page No. 3.1 Agricultural GDP, FY76-85 .......................... . .47 3.2 Public Agricultural Investment Budget by Program Area, FY86... .48 3.3 Agricultural Development Budget and Expenditure, FY81-86..........49 3.4 Real Growth in Agriculture Had There been a 12% Rate of Return on Public Investment, FY75-85S. ...... ........*.............. ,, 50 3.5 MARNDR's Share of Recurrent Budget, FY8I-86.......................51 3.6 Agricultural Recurrent and Development Budget and Expenditure, FY 81-86 .......... 0060 O *......... ...................... .. 0.52 3.7 MARNDR: Recurrent Budget, FY83-86 ................................53 3.8 MARNDR: Employptent, FY84-86 ..............................* ,54 3.9 MARNDR Agricultural Projects, FY84-86 .........55 3.10 Other Ministries' Agricultural Projects, FY85-86 .................56 3.11 Agriculture Projects in FY85 Plan but Excluded from FY86 Plan ....57 3.12 Agricultural Projects Under Consideration by Donors Through FY89 .58 CHAPTER IV 4.1 Major Public Industrial Enterprises: Illustrative Investment Program, FY86-89 59 CHAPTER V 5.1 EdH: Power System, 1985, and Projected, 1995 .....................60 5.2 Electricity Consumption, FY75-85 6. 5.3 EdH: Projected Income, Sources and Uses of Funds, FY86-89..*...62 CHAPTER VI 6.1 Transport Investments, FY86 66 6.2 Government's Preliminary Transport Investment Program, FY87-91 64 6.3 Recommended Transport Investment Program, FY87-91 000065000.0.000.65 6.4 Recommended Transport Investment Program and Financing, FY86-89 66 CHAPTER VII 7.1 TELECO: Income Statements, FY81-85, and Budget, FY86*.............67 7.2 TELECO: Balance Sheet, September 30, 1984 68 7.3 TELECO: Budgeted and Actual Investments, FY84-86 ................. 69 CHAPTER VIII 8.1 Urban Investments, FY81-85 70 8.2 Urban Recurrent Budget, FY86 .....................................71 8.3 Planned Urban Investments, FY86-88 .2 8.4 Recow'eended Investment Program and Financing, FY86-89 7 3*.........73 CHAPTER IX 9.1 Water Supply Sector; Summary Funds Statement, FY82-85, and Projections, FY86-89 ....................... .74 9.2 CAMEP: Summary Income and Funds Statement, FY80-85, and Projections, FY86-89 5............ *****#9e**75  CHAPTER IX (Cont'd) Page No. 9.3 SNEP: Summary Income and Funds Statement, FY8O-85, and Projections, FY86-e9.................................. ....... .76 9.4 MSPP POCHEP Water Supply Program: Summary Funds Statement, FY82-85, and Projections, FY86-89 7 CHAPTER X 10.1 Comparative Education-Related Indicators, 1982... ..... . 78 10.2 Population Distribution by Level of Education, 1982... ......79 10.3 Enrollments by Education Level and Type of Institution, FY84 .....80 10.4 Characteristics of Primary Education, FY83.......................81 10.5 Qualified Primary Teachers by Area and Type of School, FY83 .......82 10.6 Characteristics of Secondary Education, FY84 ......................83 10.7 Characteristics of Vocational/Technical Schools, FY82 ........... .84 10.8 Increase in Primary Enrollments and Schools by Sector and Area, ....... .............................. .......... . 85 10.9 Unit Costs by Level of Education.................e..o.............86 10.10 General Secondary Education: Quality and Efficiency Indices, 1983 ........... , 87 10.11 Recurrent Financing by Level of Education, FY85 .................88 10.12 Actual Versus Budgeted Education Recurrent Expenditure by Category and Sector, FY85 ................ ............. .... .89 10.13 Comparison of Planned, Budgeted and Actual Education Expenditure, FY82-84... 90 10.14 Comparison of Planned, Budgeted and Actual Education Expenditure, .Y85........................................., 91 10.15 MEN Recurrent by Category, FY85-86.o..............................92 10.16 Changes in Budgeted MEN Staff and Salaries by Staff Categories FY85-86... 000000000 90009*0000000000* 00000000000* 00000*00.000009**3 10.17 Projected Education Investment Expenditure, FY87-91 ..... .000.094 10.18 Projected Education Investment by Project, FY86-910 g........ .00.95 10.19 UEH: Recommended Procurement Expenditure, FY86-89..... .o..*0000.98 10.20 Recommended Recurrent Education Expenditure, FY86-96... ........ .99 10.21 Distribution of Incremental Recurrent Expenditure for Primary Education, PY86-91 and FY92-96 ........100 10.22 Core Education Investment Program, FYd7-89...e...................101 CHAPTER XI 11.1 Haiti and Selected Countries: Comparative Indicators of Population, Health and Nutrition Status.,....... ............... 102 11.2 MSPP: Budgeted Staff Positions, FY85-86.........................103 11.3 Aggregate Health Expenditure, FY8}-85 104 11.4 Public Health Spending per Capita, FY80-85.............e}........l05 11.5 Donors in Health, FY82-86 ....... 11.6 MSPP Recurrent and Investment Expenditure, FY77-85 and Budget 11.7 MSPP: Sources and Uses of Investment Funds, Budget, FY86 ........ 108 11.8 MSPP: Recommended Investment Program, FY87-89...................109 11.9 MSPP: Recommended Sources and Uses of Funds, FY86-89............110 11.10 MSPP: Recommended Sources and Uses of Investment Funds, FY87 .... 111 11.11 MSPP: Recommended Sources and Uses of Investment Funds, FY88 .... 112 11.12 MSPP: Recommended Sources and Uses of Investment Funds, FY89....113  Table 1.1: TOTAL POPULATION AND ONW DFUlTOR, FY8-89 POPULATION DIFLAICE (thousand) (FY86=400) FY80 4,877 65.7 FY81 4,965 67.9 FY82 5.054 71.0 FY83 5,145 78.2 FY84 5,237 85.0 FY85 5,332 92.7 FY86 5,428 100.0 FY87 5,526 107.0 FY8B 5,625 1.15.0 FY89 6,726 123.9 Sources: Mission estimates, based on 1982 census 1.8% p.a. population growth rate, and national accounts.  TlOe 1.2: MUNK *COM , F7605, I ,T, F87-6 toftl 45 dlllUo uIt FM prices) * rw slWa utJ )aof W FM FM F4 FM -F 7F---- FM-* --f - -F F - FlU 91F 5 fM FM Wm00 ALis SMSa WmU Mis SW1. Wm01 *335 SlEe UEOU*3st Wm5