Madagascar - Current economic situation and prospects

Report No. 5154-MAG Madagascar Current Economic Situation and Prospects October 25, 1984 Country Program Department Eastern Africa Program FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY U Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may he used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents mav not othenvise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Malagasy Franc (FPG) (yearly average) I USS = FMG 1 FMG = USS 1976 238.98 0.0042 1977 245.67 0.0041 1978 225.64 0.0044 1979 212.72 0.0047 1980 211.30 0.0047 1981 271.73 0.0037 1982 349.71 0.0029 1983 430.4-5 0.0023 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System  FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY PREFACE This updating report is based on the work of economic missions which visited Madagascar in November 1983 and March 1984. Mr. S. Rahim and Mr. A. Elsaas participated in the November 1983 mission and Hr. J. HcGibbon undertook the mission in March 1984. This domnt hus a ewrict.d distnbuton and may be used by repients only in the performance of their ofica dutie. lb contents may not otherwine be dscosed without World Bank authorizatxoL  MADAGASCAR Country Economic Memorandum Table of Contents Page No. Data Base I Introduction ............ ........................... 1 El Background to Recent Developments ......................... 1 III Overall Economic Developments 1979-83 ..................... 2 Sector Developments ................... 5 Recent Developments in Public Finances .................0..lo Money Credit and Prices .....**-*..........*....... 14 Balance of Payments 17..... 17 IV Medium Term Prospects 1984-88 .......................... 21 Statistical Annex... List of Tables ...................... 29  MADAGASCAR Country Economic Memorandum List of Text Tables Page No. Table 1 - Volume Growth of GDP and Components ..................... 2 Table 2 - Gross Domestic Expenditure, Savings and Resource Gap ... 3 Table 3 - Composition of Fixed Capital Formation ................. 4 Table 4 - Production and Imports of Rice: 1978-1983 ... .... 5 Table 5 - Central Government Finances: 1978-83 ...6 .............. 11 Table 6 -Monetary Survey, 1978-83 .............................. 15 Table 7 -Annual Inflation Rates: 1979-83 ....................... 16 Table 8 -Balance of Payments 1978-83 ........................... 17 Table 9 - Structure of merchandise imports, 1979-82 ............. 18 Table 10 - Public debt: Commitment, Disbursements: 1978-83 ....... 19 Table 11 - Commitments of Public Debt ..........20 Table 12 - GDP Average Growth Rates by Sector .......... w.... 23 Table 13 - GDP Expenditures 23 Table 14 - Central Government Finances - 1984-88 .......e..... 24 Table 15 - Export Projections ........... ....e... 25 Table 16 - Import Projections ............ 26 Table 17 - Balance of Payments: 1983-88 ....... .... . 27 Table 18 - External Capital Requirements: 1984-88 ................ 28  SAL* 3L Smm I - CAL INUICiTO6 DATA SUMW NADMAUCAL U1SMKRFgal3 caufl (mtuRIfK AVKULAGZS) j DUn (mmsT 3cT zsTIIA?Z) I4kLr Lw Zr AnZn DL 1#4db- v97A xsnaidb som or smBA AFUZCt S. OF Amu (3UM UQ. 0) rOTAL 567.0 567.0 587.0 ZC.LTIRAL 361.2 363.7 370.5 InCIflwA CoUS) 130.0 190.0 320.0 249.1 1112.9 XROG Calwmm mm CATM (Xfl0115A Or 0M EZqXLvuf) 27.0 60.0 41.0 62.6 529.0 TO A-M VITAL UIATI= rIafLATION.Pmo-TZAZ (TOUS*I) 5474.0 6785.0 91".0 Mu" IP0IUIA?10 (C or TOTAL) 10.6 14.1 19.5 19.2 29.7 POIUXATICO FI0jcriCtIs FOFUATIO INI 2000 CcLL) 16.1 STAT2OAIT IOPITIATZOW (MM) 34.1 FPOFULATd U 1.9 PooLATION DENsm 111 SQ. M. 9.3 11.6 15.3 32.5 55.6 r= SQ. Al.t01 LAND 115.2 18.7 24.2 119.2 111.5 FONVLATUOM ACE STRUCTUZ (I) 0-14 US 41.6 42.8 43.9 45.6 45.4 15-64 uS 55.2 53.9 52.9 51.5 51.7 65 AND ADO 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 POPU111LATION G1 UTZ (I) TOTAL 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.J 2.6 URBAN 4.9 5.0 5.2 6.2 5.2 CR 3111 RAT* (1U1 140) 46.7 45.2 44.? 48.6 47.0 CRUDE MAT RATE (MM TIDUS) 26.6 21.9 17.8 17.7 15.2 -ENEOOOCTI Ram 3.0 3.0 3.2 3:2 3.2 -*ALY PLANITNG A ,PrRS AAL (TC S) .. .. URS (Z or ARRI. ) .. .... FOOD A WUIaTiU t1 11 0F FOOD PROD. M CAMrtA (1969-71-100) 69.0 102.0 94.0 15.6 91.6 11 CAfXrA SUPPY Ol CALO5IS (X OF UQCIRISNTS) 100.0 107.0 109.0 86.4 96.2 __iIIS (01MG 33M Uff) 57.0 9.0 56.0 49.9 56.7 OF WuCK ANDMAL AND PULS 17.0 17.0 15.0 Ic 28.3 17.0 CILD (AGES 1-4) DS lATE 45.0 32.0 23.0 23.6 1U.7 ALU2 LIU ZXlET. AT SIM (lEADS) 37.2 42.2 47.9 48.4 51.7 WANT MM. RATE ( TW1003) 17.0 149.0 116.0 117.5 L02.7 ACCSS TO SAFE MAIZ (210J) TOAL . 11.0 25.0/4 21.S 35.6 I3AII .. 67.0 76.0 7 61.5 54.1 RURAL 1.0 14.0 4 14.2 27.3 ACcSS TO KECUETA DISPOSAL (Z OF OmATION) TOTAL .. .. .. 32.0 UAN.. 68.0 .. 69.2 . RAL .. .. 9.0 24.84.. 1OP1ULATIOW PU ITSICI4 8900.0 10170.0 10170.0 27677.8 11948.3 For. 12U* s39 3 MON 3110.0 It 3350.0 3660.0 3336.2 2248.9 1or. rMM WOSfTAL 3O TOT 420.0 350.0 300.0 La 1009.0 986.9 933AM 150.0 If 210.0 240.0 7 395.2 368.7 RUlRAL 610.0if 460.0 320.0 c 3094.0 4012.1 A34S10S rt UEnTAL .. ..Br. AVE-AGE SIZE Of sOuZLD TOTAL .. 5.S 4.7 *. 3.. 5.3 5.0 J* " .. 5.9 4.7 * AvztACE 30. or ?zmS0ii-Z TOTAL .. .. URBA .. .. . .. atAL .. .. ACCSS TO ELECT. (1 OF 07 LL)6) TOML .. .. DUAL .. ..  T A B L E 3A PACE 2 HADAGASCAR - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET HADAGASCAR REFERENCE GROUPS (UEIGETED AVERAGES) /a MOST (MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) /b RECENT LOW INCOME AFRICA HIDDLE IHCOKE 1960lkb 197isb ESTIMATEIb SOUTH OF SAHARA AFRICA S. OF SAHARA RDUCATILOE ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 52.0 88.0 100.0 /I 69.2 91.0 MALE 58.0 95.0 .. 78.8 90.5 FEMALE 45.0 81.0 .. 57.6 73.6 SECONDARY: TOTAL 4.0 11.0 14.0 /c 13.1 17.4 MALE 5.0 13.0 .. 17.6 23.7 FEMALE 3.0 9.0 .. 8.3 14.8 VOCATIONAL CE OF SECONDARY) 9.1 8.7 .. 7.2 5.3 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 70.0 65.0 55.0 Ie 46.1 38.6 SECONDARY 24.0 20.0 23.0 W 25.9 24.3 ADULT LITERACY RATE (2) .. 39.0 50.0 /c 44.3 35.6 cosDmEslo PASSENGER CARS/THOUSAND POP 4.0 6.8 7.1 3.8 20.7 RADIO RECEIVERS/THOUSAND POP 15.0 79.7 195.1 41.9 100.8 TV RECEIVERS/THOUSAND POP .. 0.5 5.2 2.0 18.5 NEWSPAPER (-DAILY GENERAL INTEREST-) CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 7.7 7.8 .. 5.4 17.2 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE/CAPITA 0.5 /f 0.7 .. 1.4 0.3 LABOR FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUS) 3046.0 3620.0 4634.0 FEMALE (PERCENT) 46.9 46.1 44.5 36.5 33.8 ACRICULTURE (PERCENT) 93.0 90.0 87.0 77.4 57.1 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 2.0 3.0 4.0 9.8 17.4 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOrAL 55.6 53.4 50.4 41.0 36.3 MALE 60.7 58.8 56.0 52.1 47.6 FEMALE 50.9 48.2 44.7 30.2 25.1 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.4 EMOIM DlSTRlJUTIWO PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 51 OF HOUSEHOLDS 41.0 /8 HIGNEST 202 OF HOUSEHOLDS 60.1 t LOST 20S OF HOUSEHOLDS 52 LOWEST 40S OF HOUSEHOLDS 13.071 POwan Tr CaaP ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAS .. .. 150.0 /c 168.3 525.3 RURAL .. .. 86.0 7c 90.8 249.0 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) WlURN .. .. 135.0 Ic 107.7 477.4 RURAL .. .. 86.0 7F 65.0 186.0 ESTIMATED POP. BELOU ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOHE LEVEL (S) URBAN .. .. 50.0 Ic 34.7 RURAL .. .. 50.0 7W 65.4 NOT AVAILABLE NOT APPLICABLE N O T E S /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countrieu naang the Indicators depends on availability of data an is not uniform. /b Unless otherwise noted. 'Data for 1960- refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; -Data for 1970- between 1969 and 1971; and data for -Most Recent Eatimate' between 190 a*nd 1982. Ie 1977; Id 1975: Ie 1978; /f 1962: /it Population. JUNE. 1984  ecm 4bot a dit an dean Ues ttdaL-n wsflmteclly --djtd in eat t ti tlus as ak . 115 *It-ibeld ii.. hm. . st d eb O ., -eis neas canli c-ntac -ds tia. S in itO bhcdtsee-ds.d -d atittci -e a -to".a durdlifcs win iiclatf t oe l ct nostcc asi Va.ie nla%Rl,l ci ejll II lets i-mna. slo ar ccana. east. ).y "CUl.ss ohl-. Slt ewela.. f.-W - t- .R-. -0 -innce-"w je-p 9- 'Up ian cant am.-. 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