China - Socialist economic development (Vol. 4 of 9) : Annex C: Agricultural development

Report No. 3391-CHA HLE: Copy China: Socialist Economic Development (In Nine Volumes) Annex C: Agricultural Development 3391 June 1, 1981 (reprinted March 10, 1982) Vol. 4 East Asia and Pacific Regional Office FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the VWorld Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS The Chinese currency is called Renminbi (RMB). It is denominated in yuan (Y). Each yuan is subdivided: 1 yuan = 10 jiao = 100 fen Exchange rates used in this report are as foll'ows: 1977 $1.00 = Y 1.828 1978 $1.00 = Y 1.661 1979 $1.00 = Y 1.541 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Chinese statistics are usually in metric units; in addition, mu and jin are often used: 1 mu = 0.1647 acres = 0.0667 hectares (ha) 1 jin = 0.5 kg FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 TRANSLITERATION The Pinyin system is used in this report.  C46400/J79028/D1195/61 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CHINA: SOCIALIST ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ANNEX C AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT Table of Contents Page No. 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . ........ .. ........ ..1 A. Historical Overview .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 B. The Economic Geography of Chinese Agriculture . . . . . . 2 The Northeast Region .... . . . . . ... . 5 The Border Provinces .... . . . . . ... . 6 North China ..... . . . . . . . . ... . 7 East China .. .... 8 The South Central Region . . . .9 South China ..... . . . . . . . . ..... . 10 The Southwest Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 C. An International Perspective of Chinese Agriculture . . . 12 Recent Trends in Agricultural Growth . . . . . . . . . 13 The Resource Base for Agricultural Development . . . . 17 Food Supplies and Population Growth . . . . . . . . . . 18 2. BASIC POLICIES AND THE INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK . . . . . . . 20 A. Agrarian Reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Land Reform .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Agricultural Cooperatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 B. The People's Commune . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Development of the System . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . 24 The Production Team .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 The Production Brigade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Commune Services .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 C. State Farms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 D. Marketing, Pricing and Credit in Agriculture . . . . . . 34 Grain Marketing .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Input Supply, Cash Crops and Retail Trade . . . . . . . 37 Agricultural Credit .38 E. Administration and Planning . . . . . . . . .... . . . . . 40 Administration .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Agricultural Planning .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 F. Technical Services and Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Agricultural Research and Extension . . . . . . ... . . 44 Seed Production .......... . 46 Education and Training . . ... . . . 46 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their otflcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  C46400/J79028/D1195/62 Page No. 3. OUTPUT, PRODUCTIVITY AND EARNINGS IN AGRICULTURE SINCE 1952 . 47 A. Overview of Agricultural Achievements . . . . . . . . . . . 48 B. Agricultural Growth in an Economy-wide Perspective. . . . . 50 Phases in Agricultural Development . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Agriculture, Population Growth and Trade . . . . . . . . 54 C. Investment in Agriculture: Land Improvement, Input Supply and Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Land Development and Irrigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Manufactured Inputs .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Agricultural Research and Extension . . . . . . . . . . . 69 D. Labor, Productivity and Earnings in Agriculture . . . . . . 72 Labor Force Growth .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Net Output and Labor Productivity . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Earnings and Living Standards in Rural Areas . . . . . . 74 4. FUTURE PROSPECTS OF AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT . . . . . . . . . 76 A. A Technical Perspective of Prospects . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Foodgrain Production .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 Oil-bearing Crops and Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 Other Crops .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Other Agricultural Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 Foodgrain Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 B. Objectives for Agricultural Development . . . . . . . . . . 83 Agricultural Output and Rural Income . . . . . . . . . . 85 C. Agricultural Policies and Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 TABLES IN TEXT 1.1 Selected Rural Indicators for Major Regions, 1979 Data . . . 4 1.2 Production, Yields and Trend Growth: Selected Crops . 14 1.3 Other Output Indicators ... . . . . . . ...... . . . 15 1.4 Selected Crop Yield Comparisons: China and High-Yield, Large-Scale Producers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 1.5 Comparative Indicators of Resource Inputs in Agriculture 19 2.1 Impact of Land Reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 2.2 Development of Agricultural Cooperatives, 1950-56 . . . . . 23  C46400/J79224/D1195/63 - iii - Page No. 3.1 Growth Rates of Gross Agricultural Output, 1952-79 . . . . . 51 3.2 Growth Rates: Agricultural Production and Population, . . . 61 1952-79 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 3.3 Food Production: Kg Per Capita Per Annum, 1952-80 . . . . 56 3.4 Accumulation and State Support for Agriculture, 1952-79. . . 58 3.5 Estimates of Arable and Sown Area, 1949-79 . . . . . . . . . 61 3.6 Major Agricultural Machinery, 1952-80. . . . . . . . . . . . 65 3.7 Production of Agrochemicals, 1952-80 . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 3.8 Growth Rates of Net Output, Labor Force and Productivity in Agriculture, 1952-79. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 4.1 Illustrations of Supply-Demand Balance in Foodgrains, 1990 . 82 MAPS IBRD 15530R China: Agricultural Regions and Major Crops IBRD 15527R China: Hydrology and Water Conservancy Works   C46400/J78948/D3153/23 1. INTRODUCTION 1.01 The Chinese agricultural system provides sustenance to nearly one billion people and is the main source of livelihood for some 800 million agricultural workers and their dependents. On either count, the system is by some margin the largest in the world agricultural economy. Historically a leader in agricultural technology, Chinese agriculture is renowned for its intensive use of arable land based on extremely high man/land ratios. Thus, China's agricultural sector accounts for less than 8% of the world's arable land but provides enough food for about 22% of the world's population. Among the developing countries, China accounts for more than 30% of the total farming population, roughly matching the combined totals for India, Indonesia and Brazil. 1.02 This chapter provides a general introduction to Chinese agriculture as a background for the more detailed description and analysis that follow. It comprises a brief account of the historical evolution up to the founding of the People's Republic in 1949 (Section A), a description of the economic geography and major agricultural regions of China (Section B), and an international perspective on the current status of development and recent trends (Section C). A. Historical Overview 1.03 Evidence from eastern China indicates the existence of an agricul- ture based on cereals dating from at least 7000 B.C. and an agriculture based on sustained field cropping from 1000-700 B.C. Thereafter, the gradual extension and development of agriculture were the essential underpinnings of a civilization whose artistic and scientific accomplishments span some three millennia of human history. The first recorded land tax dates from 594 B.C., and large quantities of land were being bought and sold by 400 B.C., by which time substantial works for irrigation, drainage and flood control had already been constructed. 1.04 There was further rapid development of agricultural technology between 800 and 1200 A.D., particularly in southern and eastern China. For lowl'and rice, sophisticated land preparation and transplanting techniques were introduced, and a considerable variety of improved seeds suited to local climatic and soil conditions was developed. During this period mechanical methods of lifting water, as well as improved gravity flow irrigation and flood control systems, became widely used. Thereafter, the historical records suggest that these technological advances were improved relatively little during the next several centuries. Rather, there was a progressive expansion in the arable area (including extensive cultivation of marginal areas for dryland farming), coupled with some intensification by means of double crop- ping and irrigation, with change dominated by demographic expansion. This  C46400/J79224/D3153/24 -2- pattern persisted up to the end of the presocialist era in 1949, although the opening of China to Western influence and commerce brought about some changes, e.g. maize and groundnut cultivation in northern China, improved strains of cotton and tobacco, and market gardening to serve the growing industrial centers of eastern China. Agriculture in other parts of the world benefited from access to Chinese crops and technology, for example, soybeans, tea cultivation methods and sericulture. 1.05 By about 1750, the social structure of agriculture had evolved towards landlord-tenant systems (based on rental and sharecropping) and small-scale owner-cultivators. Within the limits of available technology, the extraordinary skills of the farmer and high standards of crop husbandry continued to sustain remarkably high levels of land productivity. Perhaps from as early as the seventeenth century, rice yields exceeded 2 tons per ha, which is about the current level for developing countries (excluding China). But extreme poverty - associated with a precarious balance of land and population, and with a sizeable group of landless and near landless peasantry - was characteristic of many areas of China. Quite minor aberrations in weather (flood, drought) could upset the food balance at a cost of millions of lives./l Internal upheavals and international warfare in the twentieth century weakened the limited development of agricultural services and led to the widespread destruction or neglect of vital rural infrastructure. In the early 1930s, under the influence of the Great Depression, agricultural prices fell sharply, which led to distress sales of land and to tenant bankruptcies. Agricultural production recovered and reached new record levels in 1936; thereafter, the outbreak of war with Japan in 1937, followed by renewed civil war in 1947, prevented these levels from being surpassed until the mid-1950s. B. The Economic Geography of Chinese Agriculture 1.06 Agriculture in a large part of China is severely limited by terrain and rainfall. Most of the country is too mountainous or too dry for crop farming, and considerable areas of some potential are remote from the main population centers and markets. A major determining feature is the huge /1 Writing in 1931, the historian R. H. Tawney described the situation as follows: "There are districts in which the position of the rural population is that of a man standing permanently up to the neck in water, so that even a ripple is sufficient to drown him. The loss of life caused by the major disasters is less significant than the light which they throw on the conditions prevailing even in normal times over considerable regions." R. H. Tawney, "Land and Labor in China" (London, George Allen and Unwin Ltd., 1932).  C46400/J79028/D3153/25 -3- mountainous land mass of of western China, the Qinghai Xizang plateau, covering 2.2 million sq km at an average height exceeding 4,000 m. Most of the major rivers - the Huang He (Yellow), the Chang Jiang (Yangtze), and the Zhu Jiang (Pearl) in the south flow east and southeast from these mountains to form the densely settled valleys and flood plains of eastern China./l If the country is roughly halved along longitude 103, over 90% of the population and about the same proportion of agricultural output are located in the eastern half. 1.07 Climate and topography together define a variety of agricultural regions, the major factors being soils, rainfall and the length of the growing season. Seven regions/2 have been distinguished, but in a country of the size and diversity of China, several dozen separate zones would be needed to define accurately areas with similar agricultural production systems and potential. A further approximation is the alignment of these regions with provincial boundaries (to simplify interpretation). Map IBRD 15530R shows these regions; regional data are summarized in Table 1.1 (together with notes of some import- ant definitions); main features are discussed in paras. 1.11-1.41 below. 1.08 The climatic variations over such a large and diverse land mass facilitate the cultivation of a wide variety of crops and provide some guaran- tee that a harvest failure due to weather will not affect more than a relatively small part of the total cropped area. Significant differences in farming systems occur in moving from north to south and from east to west. Starting in the north and moving southwards, the intensity of cultivation increases in four distinct stages: (a) single-crop, spring-grown temperate cereals in the northeast; (b) a winter wheat/summer crop cycle (three crops in two years) in the North China Plain; (c) double cropping with a summer rice crop in the Chang Jiang basin of central China; and (d) double (and occasional triple) cropping in the tropical southern coastal areas. Important changes over the past 30 years include the opening of much new land in the northeast (especially in Heilongjiang); extensive flood control and irrigation (including power irrigation); and the development of improved crop varieties, especially of dwarf and semidwarf fertilizer-responsive varieties of rice and cold-tolerant, quick-maturing wheats. Intensive farming systems are practiced in the North China Plain, the Chang Jiang basin, the upland basin of Sichuan and the southern coastal areas. In the northeast temperate zones, the opening of new land for agriculture (often through establishment of state farms) is accompanied by heavily mechanized farming on relatively large blocks of land. Close to half the arable area is irrigated (45 million ha,/3 nearly triple the /1 The Manchurian Plains in the northeast form part of a different river system, with the Liao He flowing south into the Bo Hai and the Songhua Jiang flowing northeast into Soviet Asia after joining the Heilong. /2 Nine agricultural economic regions have been distinguished by the Ministry of Agriculture. /3 This includes areas totaling 35-40 million ha, which, because of their well-developed irrigation systems and good flood protection, the Chinese refer to as "high and stable yield" areas.  k.. 4L 0-Iili. 8282 8242 08., 81..22I2. 8 * 11 . 8 2 4 8. .8.,s8.. . 882288A 8 .1 2... 4.I 2)2) 8)) 22), 81 U) 8) 0)) 8) 8)) 28 2)8 82 12.." A- 1 28 42 8 8.8 4 28 10.2 . II$ ".8 I2. I .) 10.8 86l 1 1), 0 .28)) 0)2 188 20 88 20 01.0 128 82))) 2.8 80 8)1 088 0.2) 00 2). 220 08 200 10418.8 2.I 48.8 00.6 61.8 80.8 20 (U.....2~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~....A ...... 2) 1 8 2. .) )) )) 2) 8) 8 02 0) 8.0 228 2)8AI)0 0 I....... . 6.....28 2 8 0 8 8. 0 0 28) 88 8  C46400/J78948/D3153/26 -5- area in 1949). Moving southwards, grain yields increase sharply, with extensively double- or triple-cropped land in some eastern and southern areas producing four to five times as much as areas in the colder, drier northeast and northwest. The population sustained by crop agriculture is greater in the more favored areas, which have a much smaller arable area per farm household. 1.09 China's range livestock (sheep, goats, cattle, camels) are found largely on 200 million ha of grassland in the north and western border regions. However, most animal production is accounted for by pigs and poultry, which are reared in private plots under intensive systems and inte- grated with crop production. Production is concentrated in regions with denser populations and easy access to markets. China's pig population of 320 million head in 1979 is the largest in the world by a considerable margin. Pigs are probably still the major source of cash income for the peasant, continuing a tradition of great antiquity. 1.10 Agricultural incomes and living standards tend to vary according to agricultural productivity and market proximity. Probably the most disadvan- taged areas are the northern uplands, where temperature often limits cropping to a single season, rainfall is sparse and unreliable, topography restricts irrigation, and market access is made difficult by poor communications. These conditions, which are typical of parts of Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Henan, give rise to pockets of poverty in northern China roughly coterminous with the loess plateau. Southern and western upland areas are also generally poor, though the cropping possibilities are somewhat better; upland cash crops, forestry and livestock have been developed here and are exploited to some extent through household enterprise. Low-income areas are also found in some of the lowlands, for example, the saline areas of the North China Plain and flood prone areas of Anhui. The most favored areas include the northeast, with its relatively low population density in relation to land resources, and central and eastern China, where favorable land and climatic conditions allow intensive cropping systems and good market access permits substantial rural industrialization. Income derived from collective activities is generally two or three times higher in the more favored areas than in the poorer areas; income derived from household activities (which in the nation as a whole accounts for about 30% of total peasant income) also tends to be higher in the more favored zones. The'Northeast Region 1.11 This area, comprising the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning, accounts for 7% of China's rural population (64 million in 1979) and almost 10% of total gross agricultural output (measured in 1970 constant prices). An area of late settlement (the first railway was not opened until the twentieth century) and subsequently with strong development of industry and urbanization, the population density in the rural areas is comparatively low. The region still accounts for a substantial proportion of China's  C46400/J78948/D3153/27 -6- potentially arable areas, including an estimated 8 million ha in Heilongjiang. About 12% of the arable area is irrigated. Agricultural output per head, some 30% above that for China as a whole, is higher than in any of the other six regions. 1.12 The region has the typical continental climate, with severe winters and hot summers. The frost-free period ranges from 140 days in the north to 180 days in the south. Mean annual precipitation varies sharply with location and averages about 600 mm per year. Soil quality is variable, but includes fertile loess soils in the west-central area and ribbons of alluvial soils along major river valleys, including black earths in the former swamp areas. 1.13 Spring wheat is the dominant crop in the north and west, while corn is important where precipitation is adequate (probably in less than 30% of the region). Millet is a transition crop between corn and wheat areas and soy- beans are concentrated along the Songhua and Liao rivers. The region is China's major sugar beet area. Some sorghum (gaoliang) is produced, and rice cultivation has been pushing northward with the advent of high-yielding, short-season varieties. Single cropping predominates over most of the region. Grain production in the region, particularly in Heilongjiang, has grown more rapidly than in any other sizeable area in China, largely because of the area s relatively good soils and new land development. Crop yields are erratic, varying with moisture availability. In 1979 gross grain production was some 36 million tons, about 11% of the national total; almost 40% was sold to the state, close to twice the national average. 1.14 The cultivated areas are mainly in the rolling plains and valleys where extensive swamp drainage has taken place. After reclamation, sizeable areas are used as state farms, which average as much as 20,000 ha in Heilongjiang and account for about 15% of the region's total cultivated area. State farm lands are heavily mechanized - typically over 90% is tractor plowed and about 80% machine harvested; in Heilongjiang, average grain output per worker on state farms approaches 9 tons, compared to a per worker output of less than 1 ton nationally. Distributed coilective income (DCI) in the communes was Y 114 per capita in 1979 (about $76 at the current exchange rate), the highest regional average in China; per capita income on the state farms was Y 255 in 1979. The Border Provinces 1.15 This region, comprising Nei M4onggol (Inner Mongolia), Ningxia, Gansu, Xinjiang, Xizang (Tibet) and Qinghai, forms a vast border periphery stretching north and west along China's land frontiers. With extensive arid and semi-arid areas and high mountains, population is sparse and agriculture is limited. Thus, although the region includes almost half of China's land area, the rural population (51 million) accounts for only 6% of the total and the region produces only 5% of total gross agricultural output. Wiith important ethnic minority populations, Xinjiang, Xizang, Ningxia and Nei  C46400/J79028/D3153/28 -7- Monggol are designated autonomous regions; Qinghai and Gansu also include sizeable minority groups. Gross agricultural output per capita was about 90% of the national average in 1979, and grain production (at about 315 kg per capita) was lower than in the other six regions and only some 80% of the national average. The per capita DCI was also below the national average at Y 77, but the aggregate conceals large differences within the region, with averages exceeding Y 100 in the western areas and falling to Y 57 in Gansu (which accounts for about one third of the region's population). 1.16 The climate is characterized by a long, cold winter (year round in the high mountains) and annual rainfall declines to less than 50 mm in the northern and western parts. Agriculture is dominated by semi-nomadic herding of sheep, goats and horses on the extensive rangelands. The region sustains some 95 million sheep and goats (52% of the national herd), including 60 mil- lion sheep, mostly reared for wool. Considerable efforts are in progress to develop the rangelands through improved pastures and breeding stock (including beef cattle), plus irrigation for winter sileage. Crop development is mainly limited to summer cropping of irrigated perimeters along the upper reaches of the Huang He and its tributaries, and of oasis-type irrigated areas in Xinjiang and sheltered valleys in Xizang and Qinghai. Much of this develop- ment is relatively high cost, but the authorities have given considerable emphasis to these border areas since the early 1950s, and, especially in Xinjiang, population growth has been considerably above the national average. Rainfed crop agriculture is largely limited to the southern part of Gansu and higher rainfall areas of Nei Monggol. Northeastern Nei Monggol is an important forestry area. North China 1.17 In terms of gross production, population and grain output, this is the most important agricultural region in China. It includes five provinces (Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Elebei, Henan) and two municipalities (Beijing and Tianjin), has 27% of China's rural population (229 million in 1978), and accounts for a similar percentage of total production. The vast and densely populated North China flood plain, which forms the heartland of the region, is divided into northern and southern sections by the Huang He. To the west, the upland loess plateau of Shaanxi and Shanxi is in many respects a distinct subregion in which soil and climate have permitted an extensive, but risky, rainfed agriculture. The easy erodibility of these loess soils has created serious problems both within these two provinces and downstream on the plain where the Huang He deposits its heavy silt loads. The alluvial plains comprise mainly alkaline soils, often of immense depth and generally of moderate fertility. Along the coast of northern Shandong and in the Huang He delta, poor drainage is a serious problem and much effort is being put into corrective measures to reclaim or upgrade some 6 million ha of soils affected by salinity. 1.18 Annual precipitation is in the range of 600-800 mm (lower in the western plateau areas), but geographical and interyear variations are large.  C46400/J78438/D3153/29 -8- Winters are severe (January temperatures average about -40C, tower in the western areas) and summers are hot (July temperatures average 26-280C). 1.19 Winter wheat is the dominant crop and is grown on about 30% of the total arable area. In the northwest, a typical rotation would be winter wheat planted during late September and harvested in June, followed by grain, sorghum or millet as a drought-resistant summer crop. On the plains, wheat predominates as the winter crop, while the summer crops may be millet and sorghum, corn and soybeans, and cotton, rice and sweet potatoes, depending on precipitation and soil quality. Cotton occupies about 10% of the cropped area in the southern plain and is particularly important along the Huang He. Groundnut is a major crop in Shandong, which is by some margin the most important center for this crop in China. The cropping index is about 140% for the region as a whole but is lower in upland Shanxi (110%). 1.20 The most rapid growth of grain production in the region has taken place along the coast and in the southeast; it has been achieved through improved water control, increased use of fertilizer and reclamation of saline soils. Much of the growth of grain production north of the Huang He has been associated with improved varieties of winter wheat. In the more arid northwestern part of the region, low, erratic rainfall and more limited irrigation prospects set definite limits to future yield and area increases. The region accounts for roughly half of total power irrigation development in China, most of which was developed in the 1960s and 1970s. Although several new irrigation schemes are nearing completion, limited groundwater may pose increasing problems for future development. About one half of the arable area is irrigated. 1.21 The average per capita DCI in the region s communes (Y 79 in 1979) is slightly below the national average, despite substantially higher incomes in the rural periphery of Beijing, Tianjin and other major urban centers. This relatively low figure reflects the importance of extensive low-income areas, especially in Henan, where the average per capita DCI was only Y 63 in 1979, or 73% of the national average. East China 1.22 This region, comprising the provinces of Anhui, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the municipality of Shanghai, is second only to the Northeast Region in terms of per capita income and to North China in aggregate agricultural output and grain production. With a rural population of 138 million in 1979, the region accounted for 20% of agricultural production and 60 million tons of grain. Since the region includes China-s largest urban area (Shanghai), important markets also exist for the livestock and poultry, vegetables and fruits produced through small-scale enterprises, as well as for agricultural raw materials and commune-produced light industry components. Close to 30% of the nation-s gross output from rural industry originates in this region - in per capita terms more than twice the average for the rest of China.  C46400/J78948/D3153/30 -9- 1.23 The Chang Jiang crosses the central part of the region and, along with its tributaries, provides much of the irrigation that permits intensive land use. The region is divided into three broad plains: the Jianghua Plain to the north of the Chang Jiang in Jiangsu, the Jiangnan Plain south of the river, and the great Chang Jiang delta. The plains are low-lying, with good alluvial or lake laid soils that are generally neutral or slightly acidic. Salinity is a problem in a narrow belt of coastline soils. Much of the arable land of the three plains has been used for rice cultivation for over 1,000 years. 1.24 Proximity to the East China Sea and the lack of topographic obstruc- tions create a modified marine climate. Temperature extremes are avoided and the growing season is from 230 to 250 days. Precipitation along the Chang Jiang is about 1,000 mm, but declines towards the north; it is well distri- buted throughout the year, with abundant rainfall during the summer. The cropping index for the region as a whole exceeds 200%, and Zhejiang, with an index of 247%, has the highest cropping intensity of any province in China./l 1.25 Rice is the dominant crop, but cotton, wheat, corn, sorghum and vegetables are also important. Most of the area is double cropped (wheat/ rice) and in some locations a three-crop-in-two-year system is used. Production of three crops per year occurs in some locations but is declining in importance. The lower Chang Jiang Plain is one of China's most important cotton producing areas. Crop yields in the region significantly exceed national averages. Some 69% of the area was irrigated in 1979, the highest percentage for any region. 1.26 Grain production appears to have grown at about 3% p.a., with the slowest growth in Anhui, where moisture limitations and flooding are a severe handicap to increased production. Completion of the Jiangsu Water Control Project in 1977 and two large fertilizer plants (Nanjing and Anqing), together with planned renovation/enlargement of the Grand Canal, should provide the means for steady future increases in grain production in the region as a whole. Relatively high incomes in the region as a whole mask considerable differences between the highly developed lower Chang Jiang areas, centered around Shanghai, and the northern part of Jiangsu and Anhui, which are essentially part of the North China Plain in terms of settlement patterns, crops and income. The South Central Region 1.27 This region, comprising the provinces of Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi, is noted for grain production and freshwater fisheries, based on the extensive lakes that characterize the low-lying middle reaches of the Chang Jiang basin. The rural population of 119 million (16% of the national total) produced some /1 Chinese data of cropped area include short maturation forage and green manure crops.  C46400/J78948/D3153/31 - 10 - 15% of gross agricultural output in 1979; total grain output was some 54 mil- lion tons - in per capita terms second only to the Northeast Region in production. 1.28 The region's topography is composed of plains broken by relatively low-lying hills. The Chang Jiang traverses the northern part and several smaller tributaries originate in the mountains to the south. The river systems include a number of rich alluvial plains and deltas, and regional soils vary widely depending on parent material, elevation and precipitation. Drainage is a serious problem in the lake areas, particularly in southern Hubei. 1.29 Precipitation in the region is variable, ranging from 700 to 1,500 mm per year and declining from southeast to northwest. The growing season ranges from 240 to 320 days. Summers are warm and humid (July average of 280C) while winters are dry and comparatively mild (January average of 7