China - Socialist economic development (Vol. 8 of 9) : Annex G: Education

Report No. 3391A FBUE CoPy CNhna: Socialist Economic vt (In Nine Volumes) 339 Annex Gz:Education Vol. 8 June 1, 1981 (reprinted March 10, 1982) Eist Asia and Pacific Regional Office FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY U Document of the d Ba This documrent has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their offidal duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS The Chinese currency is called Renminbi (RMB). It is denominated in yuan (Y). Each yuan is subdivided: 1 yuan = 10 jiao = 100 fen Exchange rates used in this report are as follows: 1977 $1.00 = Y 1.828 1978 $1.00 = Y 1.661 1979 $1.00 = Y 1.541 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Chinese statistics are usually in metric units; in addition, mu and jin are often used: 1 mu = 0.1647 acres = 0.0667 hectares (ha) 1 jin = 0.5 kg FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 TRANSLITERATION The Pinyin system is used in this report.  C46400/j78898/D3156/65 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CHINA: SOCIALIST ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ANN'X G MDUCATION Table of Contents Page No. 1. DEVE'LO?ME!TS !l EDUCAT'ON . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trends Prior to 1966 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 The Cultural Revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Developments Since 1976 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 S =m ary, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2. HsJfOWER.. Educational Profiles. 6 The Stack of Scientific and Technical Manpower . . . . . . . . 9 The Industrial 'Work Force .10 The Agricultural Work Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Projected Manpower Needs... Supply7 Hechaaism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1L Summary . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 3. THE CURRENT EDUCATION SYSTEM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Structure and 0smensions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Primary E-ducatioa.13 Secondary Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Higher Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Nolformal Education .42 4. KMAAGEIENT AND COSTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Adminiscration and Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Costa and Financing .52 . ISSUES .58 Strengths and Weaknesses of the Education System . . . . . . . 58 Tigh-Level Manpower Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Training of Middle-Level Techniciaas . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Quality of Primar7 and Secondary Education . . . . . . . . . . 61 Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Investmeat Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 I This document has a restrictd distibution and may be used by recipients only in the perormance of theci offlciaj dutss contents may not otherwise be disclosed without Worid 8aak authorztion.  C46400/J78898/D3156/66 - ii - Page No. 6. THE GOVERNMENTS EDUCATION POLICY AND DEVELOPM4ENT PLANS, 1981-90 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Education Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Development Plans, by Level and Type of Education, 1981-90 . . 64 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 TABLES IN TEXT 1.1 Growth of Education, 1949-79 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2.1 Educational Profiles: China and Other Asian Countries . . . . 7 2.2 Manpower and Population Data, 1952 and 1979 . . . . . . . . . . 8 2.3 Trained Labor Force, 1979 ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.4 Distribution of Scientific and Technical Manpower, by Occupation and Sector, 1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 2.5 Scientific and Technical Manpower in Selected Industries: China and Comparator Countries . . . . . . . . . 11 2.6 Requirement and Supply of New Scientific and Technical Manpower in Shanghai, 1979 .12 2.7 Projected Demand of Industrial and Agricultural Skilled Manpower, 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 3.1 Higher Education Institutions, by Administrative Responsibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3.2 Institutions of Higher Education, by Type, 1979 . . .34 3.3 Higher Education Enrollment and Graduates, by Field, 1979 . . . 35 3.4 Teaching Staff and Student/Teacher Ratio, 1979 . . . . . . . . 40 4.1 Expenditures in Formal and Nonformal Education ofL all Types, by Source, 1979 . . ................... . 53 4.2 Unit Costs of Education at Different Levels, as a Percentage of GNP/Capita ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 4.3 Percentage Distribution of Educational Expenditures, by Level of Education ........... . . ... . . ... 56 4.4 Growth of Recurrent Expenditure, by Type, 1977-80 . . . . . . . 57 6.1 TV University: Enrollment Targets, 1980-90 . . . . . . . . . . 72 APPENDICES A. Structure of Education B. Education Pyramid C. Students, Schools and Teachers, 1979 D. Enrollment Ratios, 1950-79 E. Age Distribution in Primary Schools F. Weekly School Program, Primary and Secondary Education  G. Rank, Qualifications and Experience of University Staff H. Organogram of Ministry of Education I. Administration of Education J. Ministry of Education Budget, 1978 and 1979 K. Education Indicators, 1979 L. Vocational/Technical School Enrollment Projection, 1980-89 M. Vocational/Technical School Teachers, 1980-89 N. Senior Secondary Enrollment Projection, 1980-89 O Senior Secondary Teachers, 1980-89 P. Junior Secondary Enrollment Projection, 1980-90 Q. Junior Secondary Teachers, 1980-90 R. Primary School Enrollment Projection, 1980-90 S. Primary School Teachers, 1980-90 T. Enrollment in Formal Education, 1949-79 U. Population and School-Age Population Data, 1949-79 V. Issues, Government Plans and Programs REFERENCES   C46400/J74079/D1321 /70 EDUCATION IN THE CHINESE CONSTITUTION "The state devotes major efforts to developing education in order to raise the cultural and scientific levels of the whole nation. Education must serve proletarian politics and be combined with productive labor and must enable everyone who receives an education to develop morally and physically and become a worker with both socialist consciousness and culture." "Citizens have the right to education. To ensure that citizens enjoy that right, the state gradually increases the number of schools of various types and other cultural and educational institutions and popularizes education."   C46400/J89896/D997/02 1. DEVELOPMENTS IN EDUCATION 1.01 In few other countries has the education system been more exposed to changes in the political climate than in China since 1949. Education has been used more consistently than elsewhere as an instrument for transforming traditions, attitudes and behavior, and for introducing new skills and knowledge. The overall aims of education policy have been to develop students' moral, intellectual and physical faculties, and to train workers in both socialist consciousness and culture. 1.02 Traditional Chinese education was based on private tutors and aca- demies and was in many ways similar to the system that prevailed in classical Greece. However, its primary purpose was to train and select civil servants. It was highly competitive. It might in theory have been open to all but in practice it excluded the poor and women. It never addressed itself to the education of the masses. Some changes occurred in the 1860s, when the teaching of natural sciences and foreign languages was introduced. After the arrival of the Europeans and Americans in the late nineteenth century, schools and universities were established by missionary societies and other agencies; these were modeled after institutions in the home countries of the foreigners, and although they had wider educational objectives, these were not very relevant to Chinese needs. With the creation of the Republic in 1912, China's education system gained a more contemporary structure, but it still gave little consideration to the educational needs of the masses, particularly of those in rural areas. Education continued to be available to the few with high income or social status. Trends Prior to 1966 1.03 1949-58. The Government that assumed power in 1949 inherited an education system that was small, fragmented and semicolonial. There was a shortage of manpower at all levels and the percentage of illiterates was at least 80%, despite China's long literary tradition. The number of students in primary education was 24 million, giving an enrollment ratio of only 25%. The number of students in secondary education was 1.3 million and the enrollment ratio about 3%; in tertiary education, there were 120,000 students or 0.3% of the relevant age group. The total population of China was about 540 million at that time, and it may be estimated that less than 70 million people (or 20% of the working age population of 340 million) had received no more than a full primary education, with the corresponding figures for secondary and higher education at 4 million and 185,000, respectively. 1.04 Education was regarded as a vital instrument for socialist develop- ment. However, the state of the economy during the period of restoration of the early 1950s prevented major development of the education system. Only gradual changes were possible, and financial allocations to education were modest. Many important reforms were nevertheless executed: for example, educational institutions were nationalized, the university structure was changed, textbooks were improved and teachers were retrained. Serious  C46400/J91843/D997/03 -2- attempts were made to promote adult education and eradicate illiteracy among the masses. Furthermore, a new education administration was established within the Ministry of Education to coordinate plans and implement programs. 1.05 Formal education comprised, and still comprises, the traditional three hierarchical stages of primary, secondary and tertiary education. Stu- dents completed six years of primary education, three years each of junior and senior secondary education (in China, called lower and upper middle schools), and finally four to five years of university education./l The sys- tem thus provided a total of 16-17 years of education. 1.06 Senior secondary and tertiary education, patterned after the Soviet model, became increasingly specialized. The system was highly competitive and achievement oriented, an approach that fitted easily with the tradition of examinations. The system at the secondary and tertiary levels was designed to provide more trained manpower. At an early stage, the Government also established the "key" concept in education as a means of identifying ability regardless of socio-economic background. According to the key system, selected educational institutions at all levels received the best teachers, facilities and equipment and were open only to students who did well in examinations./2 1.07 1958-65. The proper balance between the emphasis on mass education and the need for high quality and specialized training has often been difficult to achieve. The development of education during the following three decades reflects attempts to reconcile these needs - the need for mass education, which for financial reasons might be obtained only at the expense of the quality of education, and the need for high quality training, which would provide the skilled manpower necessary for rapid economic development. 1.08 The Great Leap Forward movement, which began in 1958, was an attempt to sharply accelerate development throughout the economy, largely through local initiatives. In education, plans were made to increase student enrollments quickly, and especially to increase the number of students with worker or peasant backgrounds. Production work was included and emphasized in the curricula as a means of linking the classroom to society and theory with practice. Work also provided a source of income for the schools, and factories were opened to generate funds for expanding and operating the schools. The introduction of the "minban gongzhu' concept (management by the people with the assistance of government) in education was an important innovation, since it encouraged local authorities to construct schools using their own means and to hire teachers from among their own ranks, with minor /L And some shorter college courses. /2 Three reasons have been given for establishing key schools: (a) they serve as models, (b) they use scarce financial resources well, and (c) they turn out highly qualified manpower.  C46400/J89534/D997/04 -3- financial support from the central government. Spare-time schools were expanded and half-time schools were introduced to combat illiteracy and meet the training needs of production units. As in other sectors of the economy, however, too many demands were placed on limited resources and the proper balance between quantitative and qualitative development was not achieved. By 1960, the Great Leap Forward movement had resulted in economic chaos and severe economic difficulties throughout the country. The serious economic situation caused major reductions in enrollments in primary and secondary education and led to a setback to educational development. 1.09 By 1961, China's education system had reverted to its previous form. Educational policy and administration were once again centralized; emphasis was placed on achievement. The quality of enrolled students was increasingly stressed. Selected schools and universities were again designated key institutions. Efforts were made to improve the education system, while following the policy of popularization and mass educacion, and to continue the steady developments of the early and mid-1950s. The Cultural Revolution 1.10 The Cultural Revolution (1966-76) had a profound impact on China-s education system. During the early tumultuous years of the Revolution, schools and universities were closed throughout China. Some primary and secondary schools did not open for two or three years, while universities and postsecondary institutions remained closed till the early 1970s. The education system was completely revamped. 1.11 During this period, vocational and technical secondary schools were almost completely dismantled and their facilities turned into residences or factories. Admission criteria were changed; political background (including, for example, class status of parents and grandparents) rather than ability became the key for entry. Tests disappeared at all educational levels. 1.12 The importance of formal schooling was de-emphasized. The length of schooling was shortened for primary, junior secondary and senior secondary education from 6:3:3 years, to 5:3:2 or even 5:2:2 years. 1.13 University education underwent drastic changes. The existing sys- tem was considered bourgeois and to favor students with wealthy or intellec- tual backgrounds. Through an open-door policy, entrance for students from rural areas and the working class was facilitated. Courses were shortened to three years. Many regular university professors accused of bourgeois attitudes were sent to the countryside for "re-education" and were often replaced by less qualified staff. 1.14 At all educational levels, management of the education system was decentralized, with local governments and communities playing an important role in decision making. Revolutionary committees directed schools and universities.  C46400/J89534/D997/05 -4- 1.15 Productive labor was greatly emphasized and political education was much increased at the expense of academic subjects. Children in primary schools were required to spend four weeks each year in productive labor and secondary students six weeks. Two years' work in factories or communes was a prerequisite for postsecondary studies. Peasants, workers and members of propaganda teams who were often inadequately qualified were recruited as teachers, with a view to bridging the gap between school and the rest of the community and assuring the politicization of education. 1.16 When primary and secondary schools eventually fully reopened during the later years of the Cultural Revolution, educational opportunities were increased. Primary school enrollment increased by 30%, or over 30 million children. Expansion in secondary education was even faster: 300%, or 40 million students./1 By contrast, in higher education, enrollment was curtailed through the continued closure of many institutions; in addition, a strong bias against advanced studies restrained the intake to universities Postgraduate education was abolished. 1.17 The quality of education suffered at all levels. Many new teachers were poorly trained, and there was a shortage of qualified teachers and learning materials./2 Mluch equipment had been destroyed, and library books had even been burnt. The curricula allowed little room for intellectual development and cognitive achievement. In the universities, basic and theoretical research was greatly affected. "Practicalness" and "redness" were given greater priority than "expertness. Developments Since 1976 1.18 Since the Cultural Revolution, China's educational policy has again been modified. To provide the manpower necessary for rapid economic develop- ment, the Government has decided to give increased priority to education generally, and in particular to concentrate additional resources on specialized institutions and higher education. Key schools and universities have been reinstated and new ones have been founded. IUhile the inequities that the key institutions may create are recognized, the authorities consider that the key concept offers the most cost-effective way of training the manpower China needs and overcoming the disruptions caused by the Cultural Revolution. 1.19 Other steps have been taken to reverse many changes adopted during the Cultural Revolution. The quality of education is being stressed, and /1 This was partly a statistical artifact, since the sixth year of primary school became the first year of secondary school (para. 1.12). /2 The sharp expansion of secondary school enrollment, in particular, was often possible only by "promoting" teachers from the primary to the secondary school level, while peasants and workers were recruited to replace them in the primary schools.  C46400/J89534/D997/06 -5- there is a renewed emphasis on theoretical and basic research and training. Productive labor remains part of the curricula, but it now comprises work considered particularly appropriate for the students fields of study. Admission and progression are again based on scholastic ability and achievement, and examinations have been reinstated in the education process. Postgraduate studies are being encouraged. 1.20 The administration of education again rests with the Ministry of Education, which has a major responsibility for planning policy formulation, standardization, curriculum development, teacher supply, and quality control and improvement. At the same time, attempts are being made to transfer increased financial responsibility for primary, secondary and college educa- tion to local governments. Summary 1.21 The development of education in China since 1949 has been impressive, despite the disruption during the Cultural Revolution (Table 1.1). The number of primary school graduates has increased by 305 million from the 1949 figure of 70 million. Since 1949, senior secondary schools have graduated 51 million students, compared to 4 million during the previous 30-year period; for university graduates, the corresponding figures are 3 million and 185,000. Two out of three adult Chinese are now literate. These are impressive figures by any standards. Qualitative developments have been less satisfactory, since expansion was sometimes achieved at the expense of quality.; this was especially true of developments in secondary education during the Cultural Revolution. Attempts have been made to bridge the gap between school and the world of work during most of the period since 1949, notably through the schools in factories and factories in schools. These attempts have contributed to China's impressive development of nonformal education opportunities, especially at the university level where enrollments totalled almost 0.9 million students in 1979. The types of education offered include night school and correspondence courses, spare-time university programs, and training given to workers and peasants at institutions run by their factories, enterprises and counties.  C46400/J78637/D997/07 -6- Table 1.1: GROWTH OF EDUCATION, 1949-79 1949 1958 1965 1979 Primary Schools ('000) 347 777 682 924 Enrollment (millions) 24.4 86.4 116.2 146.6 Enrollment ratio (x) 25 67 70 93 Secondary Schools ('000) 5.2 28.9 n.a. 147.3 Enrollment (millions) 1.3 8.5 14.4 60.3 Enrollment ratio (%) 2 17 16 46 Higher Universities/colleges 205 791 434 633 Enrollment (millions) 0.12 0.66 0.67 1.02 Enrollment ratio (x) 0.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 2. MANPOWER Educational Profiles 2.01 Overall, the development of China's education system since 1949 has much improved the educational profile of the country's manpower. The educational profile was, however, lowered as a result of the decrease in higher and technical/vocational education and training during the Cultural Revolution. Because of the closure of schools and universities, China has had to forego the estimated 2 million middle-level technicians and 1 million college and university graduates who would otherwise have been graduated during the late 1960s and early 1970s. There is now a scarcity of skilled manpower in many sectors of the economy. Simultaneously, the quality of education suffered (para. 1.17), and a generation of Chinese (160 million) now in their twenties and early thirties received an education that was misoriented and low in quality. 2.02 The estimated educational attainment of China's current population (1979) in the 25+ age group is compared with data for neighboring Asian countries in Table 2.1. The educational profile of China is based on estimates of the number of school graduates at different educational levels since 1949, while data on other countries were obtained from Unesco statistics. Some Unesco data are from the 1970 census and profiles change in a few years for countries with expanding education systems. The table shows, nevertheless, that China compares well with many of its developing country  C46400/J78637/D997/08 -7_ neighbors in having a fairly low "no schooling" rate and a satisfactory percentage of primary school graduates. However, China has the lowest proportion of higher education graduates. As expected, the profiles for Japan and the USSR are far superior to that of China. Table 2.1: EDUCATIONAL PROFILES: CHINA AND OTHER ASIAN COUNTRIES (percentage of population in the 25+ age group) /a Incomplete Complete Junior Senior No primary primary secondary secondary Higher /b Countries schooling education education education education education China 38 16 31 10 4 0.7 Philippines 20 ------56 ------ ------14 ----- 9.6 Thailand 34 ------61 ------ ------ 4----- 1.1 Korea (Rep.) ----- ----------73 ------ ------22 ----- 5.6 Hong Kong 29 -----42 ------ 10 ---19------ Singapore 48 ------29 ------ ------21----- 2.0 India 72 -----23 ------ -------4----- 1.1 Pakistan 81 2 6 4 4 3.4 Bangladesh 82 ------10 ------ -------7----- 0.9 Japan 1 ------61 ------ ------33 ----- 5.5 USSR -----48---------- ------ ------44----- 7.2 /a It would have been preferable to compare the 15+ age group, but no Unesco data are available on the 15-24 age group. /b Thailand and Korea had increased their percentages to 2.2 and 10.4, respectively, by the mld-1970s. Sources: China, mission estimates; other countries, Unesco. 2.03 China's literacy compaigns have been successful, though the number of illiterates increased somewhat during the Cultural Revolution. The literacy rate among the population aged 15+ is estimated at about 66%, or an increase of over 46 percentage points since 1949. For comparison, the literacy rates of the three countries on the Indian subcontinent vary from 21% to 33%. The other developing countries listed in Table 2.1, however, have rates higher than that of China, which vary from 69% in Singapore to 87% in the Republic of Korea. Japan and the USSR have literacy rates of or above 98%. The attrition rate in China's primary schools is such that the literacy curve may have leveled off during the last decade (para. 3.10).  C46400/J78637/D997/09 -8- 2.04 The labor force in China is still primarily employed in agriculture (Table 2.2). The percentage in indu.strv remains comparatively low, despite the ongoing industrialization, which began in the early 1950s. Table 2.2: RANPOWER AND POPULATION DATA, 1952 AND 1979 As % of No. (millions) labor force 1952 1979 1952 1979 Total population 570 970 - - Labor Force 207 406 100 100 Of which: Employed in agriculture 173 300 84 74 Employed in industry 12 53 6 13 Employed in the military/civil service } 22 33 } 10 8 Other } 20 } 5 Source: State Statistical Bureau. 2.05 The educational profile of the labor force aged 15-64 is, as expected, better than that of the population aged 25+. Based on government information, the total output of educational institutions between 1949 and 1979 constituted an estimated 90% of trained labor in 1979. A profile of the trained labor force for 1979 shows that two thirds (a reasonable proportion) have at least a primary education (Table 2.3). 2.06 The 0.5% of the labor force with higher education should be compared with percentages ranging from 0.7% to 10.4% in other developing countries in East Asia. An estimated 40% of the manpower with higher education pursued studies in science and engineering; this amounts to 0.2% of the total labor force, which is a low percentage. Since many of the manpower with technical secondary education are teachers and health personnel, the percentage with industrial or agricultural training must be below the 0.9% shown in the table - probably 0.4%, again a low percentage.  C46400/J78637/D997/1O -9- Table 2.3: TRAINED LABOR FORCE, 1979 Trained labor force Educational Labor force % of output partici- Adjust- Attri- total 1949-79 pation ment /a tion /b labor Level of education Mln. % % Xln. (mln.) (mln.) Mln. force Higher education 3.0 0.6 100 3.0 +0.3 -1.2 2.1 0.5 Technical sec. education 5.4 1.1 95 5.1 +0.5 -2.0 3.6 0.9 Sr. sec. education 46.0 9.1 85 39.1 +3.8 -15.9 27.0 6.7 Jr. sec. education 147.0 29.0 80 117.6 +12.2 -46.5 83.3 20.5 Primary education 305.0 60.2 70 213.5 +25.3 -85.5 153.3 37.8 Total 506.4 100.0 - 378.3 +42.1 -151.1 269.3 /c 66.3 /a Adjusted for the remaining 10% of the trained labor force. /b Assuming an annual average attrition rate of 3%. /c Out of a total labor force of 406 million. Source: Ministry of Education. The Stock of Scientific and Technical Manpower 2.07 There are an estimated 4.7 million Chinese scientific and technical manpower with higher and intermediate training, distributed by occupation and sector as shown in Table 2.4. The table, which is broadly consistent with data in paras. 2.05-2.06, shows a strikingly low percentage in agriculture and industry compared with the figures for health care and medical personnel.  C46400/J78637/D997/11 - 10 - Table 2.4: DISTRIBUTION OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL MANPOWER, BY OCCUPATION AND SECTOR, 1979 No. (millions) % of total A. By Occupation Engineers and technicians 1.7 36 Agricultural technicians 0.3/a 6 Medical personnel 1.4 30 Scientific researchers 0.3 6 Teachers 1.0 22 Total 4.7 100 B. By Sector Manufacturing 1.20 26 Construction 0.38 8 Transportation 0.16 3 Agriculture and forestry 0.36 8 Culture, health and education 1.70 36 Research 0.29 6 Miscellaneous 0.61 13 Total 4.7 iCc /a Other sources give a figure of 0.21 million. Sources: State Commission of Science and Technology, and State Planning Commission. The Industrial Work Force 2.08 Achieving the four modernizations will require a good stock of skilled manpower in Chinese manufacturing industries and other enterprises such as transportation, construction and mining. The existing stock is low, and a shortage of scientific and technical high- and middle-level manpower prevails. A survey of the occupational structure of industries in 26 developed and developing countries /1 shows that these countries have an average of 87 engineers, technicians, managers and administrators per 1,000 employees, while China has 37 per 1,000./2 In coal mining the respective figures are 84 and 19. In a sample of Chinese manufacturing industries, /1 M. Zymelman, Occupational Structures of Industries (The World Bank, July 1980). /2 Other sources quote 28 per 1,000.  C46400/J78637/D997/12 - 11 - which in many respects were above the Chinese average, the figures varied from 40 to 90 technical staff per 1,000 employees, with the majority below the international average. A few data from industrialized countries, or countries with strong industrial aspirations, confirm the picture of an undersupply of high- and middle-level technical manpower in Chinese industry (Table 2.5). China's construction industry of 1979 can well be compared with Brazil's industry of 1970 in its stock of technical manpower; its stock is otherwise relatively small. Table 2.5: SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL MANPOWER IN SELECTED INDUSTRIES: CHINA AND COMPARATOR COUNTRIES /a (%) China Brazil Mexico Japan USA Construction 2.5 1.6 3.2 3.6 3.5 Chemical and machinery 4.5 5.2 9.3 11.7 21.1 /a Data for 1970; the current stock is larger than these figures indicate. Sources: For China, State Planning Commission; for other countries, M. Zymelman, op. cit. 2.09 The percentage of high-level manpower (scientists and engineers with university education) is estimated from the data in Tables 2.3 and 2.4 at 0.5%, or 5 per 1,000 employees. This is a low percentage compared to the figures for Mexico, Brazil, Japan and the USA. 2.10 Shanghai, with its population of 11 million, has a long industrial tradition and is China's most heavily industrialized community. It will play a key role in China's modernization efforts. Good educational opportunities are offered through its 30 universities and higher science and technical institutions, and its 72 technical schools. Nevertheless, its enterprises, with a labor force of 4.2 million, have only 57 technical managerial staff per 1,000 employees, and only 12 of these have completed higher education in an industrially relevant subject. Data from the Municipal Planning Commission in Shanghai confirm the shortage of scientific and technical manpower (Table 2.6), revealing that only 16% of the required number could be supplied to the various industries./l The greatest shortage was in the computer and automatic control sector, where only 8% of the need could be met. /1 No similar surveys are available from other industrialized communities, but a textile factory and an instrument factory in Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan in China's interior, stated that they were able to meet 29% and 27% of their needs, respectively.  C46400/J78637/D997/13 - 12 - Table 2.6: REQUIREMENT AND SUPPLY OF NEW SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL MANPOWER IN SHANGHAI, 1979 Supply as % of Field Requirement Supply requirement Automatic control 251 20 8.0 Electronic computers 176 15 8.5 Industrial & civil engineering 480 47 9.8 Hydraulic drive 97 10 10.3 Radio communication 115 12 10.4 Industrial automation (electronic) 250 30 12.0 Architecture 107 13 12.1 Program design 241 31 12.9 Radio technology 104 14 13.5 Boilers 162 23 14.2 Industrial automatic dials 123 20 16.3 Computing mathematics 90 15 16.7 Chemistry 585 104 17.8 Motors 168 34 20.2 Machining methods & equipment 111 24 21.6 Physics 552 124 22.5 Chemical engineering 89 21 23.6 Biology 319 80 25.1 Total 4,020 637 16.0 Source: Municipal Planning Commission, Shanghai. 2.11 The shortage of economists, social scientists and lawyers in China is even greater than that of personnel with training in engineering and the natural sciences./I Prior to 1957, higher education and senior secondary education were geared towards science and technology after the Soviet model. Economics, the other social sciences and law were never emphasized enough. Later on during the Cultural Revolution, the study of these subjects was completely abolished. It has now been reintroduced, but so far only 7% of all university students in China are enrolled in these departments. The general low efficiency in many factories, often primitive office procedures and the lack of economic thinking also indicate shortages of such personnel as business administrators, plant managers and financial analysts. /1 No manpower survey has been conducted but, to quote a typical example, a textile factory asked for 15 accountants last year but was not able to hire any.  C46400/J78813/D997/14 - 13 - 2.12 There is also a shortage of researchers in China. The research sector in China only employs about 300,000 people, not even one researcher per 1,000 employees.. The Academy of Sciences reports having only one experienced researcher to every hundred of its technical staff, compared to the ratio of one researcher to 3-4 technical staff in advanced countries. The Cultural Revolution was in general a period of decline in research and development:/l although some applied research was conducted, basic research was frowned upon. This trend is now being reversed. Serious efforts are being made to rehabilitate Chinese research in all sectors. There is also a need to develop postgraduate education to produce qualified researchers. A priority is to rehabilitate the Chinese Academy of Sciences, which needs to staff close to 100 scientific institutes, with many hundreds of researchers in each institute. 2.13 The quality of scientific and technical manpower suffers on two counts: the low qualifications and unsuitable age distribution of personnel. Those graduated during the Cultural Revolution are inadequately qualified. In 1979, the Shanghai Commission of Science and Technology conducted a survey of those who graduated from universities and technical schools between 1972 and 1976. Its findings show that only about 20% were qualified to the standard of the pre-Cultural Revolution university syllabi; 60% were qualified to the standard of technical secondary education; and the remaining 20% were not qualified by either of these standards. 2.14 Comparatively few technicians and professionals entered the labor force during and after the Cultural Revolution, and the average age of technicians or professionals in Chinese enterprises is therefore high. Technicians are often 20 years older than their colleagues in other countries; the average age of senior scientists in Chinese industry is 58 years. In higher education, the situation is even worse, with professors averaging 70 years in Shanghai and associate professors 55 years. This age structure in industry and research institutions and universities carries with it a high risk of retaining outdated technologies and university curricula, and conducting irrelevant research. 2.15 The Chinese authorities are also dissatisfied with the technical and cultural levels of the rest of the labor force in manufacturing industries and other enterprises. They stated that the illiteracy rate of 5% in factories is too high and is unsatisfactory, that 70% of the labor force have had less than 6-7 years of education,/2 and that most of the 20-30% with a junior secondary education (up to 70 in some industries) received an /1 With the possible exception of the defense sector. /2 Some sources state that two thirds have only 2-3 years of primary education, which appears inconsistent with other data.  C46400/J89534/D997/15 - 14 - inferior education during the Cultural Revolution./l Few employees have received any preservice skill training and most have learnt their skills on the job. Workers have a poor command of science and technology and few are fully skilled./2 This affects the utilization of equioment, productivity and the quality of products. The Chinese industrial worker appears ambitious and prepared to work long hours, but a lack of training may reduce overall creativity and willingness to try and adopt innovations. The Agricultural Work Force 2.16 The labor situation is even more serious in agriculture than in industry. No reliable information is available in China on the number of agricultural technicians and agronomists with university degrees. There is reportedly an average of one technical staff per commune, or a total of 50,000 persons. There are, according to the State Planning Commission, 360,000 technical and scientific staff working in agriculture, forestry or related jobs in government-owned or collectively owned enterprises (Table 2.4). This would indicate a ratio of one technical worker per 1,000 people in the agricultural labor force. The scarcity of agricultural technicians is supported by data from Sichuan, which has a population of 100 million, an agricultural labor force of 43 million and 20,000 agricultural technicians: this corresponds to a ratio of one technician per 2,000 agricultural workers. For international comparison, agriculture employs an average of 5 technical staff per 1,000 employees with Mexico employing 2 per 1,000 and the USA 16 per 1,000 in 1970./3 2.17 As in industry, the technical and cultural levels of the agricul- tural labor force are low compared with those in developed countries and other East Asian countries. According. to a government source, "30,, of the young and middle-aged people in the rural areas are illiterate or semi-illiterate." This percentage is in fact probably higher, as the national figure for illiterates, including the urban population, is estimated at 34% and one out of three students leaves primary school prematurely. Furthermore, very few farmers have received any formal vocational training in agriculture. /1 The Chinese authorities state that the overall quality of education deteriorated so much during 1966-76 that "quite a number of the young workers and staff members are junior or senior secondary school graduates only in name." /2 A survey in one province showed only 5.1% fully skilled workers in coal mining, 4.1% in the metallurgical industry, and 6.4% in the chemical industry, although the Chinese authorities estimate that 10-15%, 10% and 9%, respectively, would actually be needed. /3 Source: M. Zymelman, op. cit.  C46400/J78898/D997/16 - 15 - 2.18 It has increasingly been realized that primary education and literacy enhance farmers' effectiveness. The Government's intention to make primary education universal by 1990 will therefore have an important effect not only socially but also economically in rural areas. It will also widen the recruitment base to accelerate industrialization. Expansion of agricultural training is also vital in many rural areas. Projected Manpower Needs 2.19 Successful implementation of the Chinese Government's development plan will depend on the ability of the education system to produce sufficient well-trained workers, technicians, scientists and engineers over the next decade. Tentative estimates of future needs for skilled workers, middle-level technicians, scientists and engineers for industry and agriculture (services excluded) are shown in Table 2.7./I The output of the school and university system (discussed in Chapter 3) would need to be significantly expanded to meet the projected demand. Table 2.7: PROJECTED DEMUND OF INDUSTRIAL AND AGRICULTURAL SKILLED MANPOWER, 1990 Stock Annual Current Exist. Required additional output /b 1979 1990 need /a per annum Scientists, engineers 900,000 1,650,000 106,000 30,000 .Iiddle-level technicians 1,600,000 2,900,000 190,000 50,000 Skilled workers 16,000,000 23,000,000 1,200,000 400,000 /a For economic growth and attrition. /b Full-time schools only. Source: Estimates based on data from State Commission on Science and Technology and State Planning Commission. Supply Mechanism 2.20 There is little mobility in the Chinese labor market and the labor transfer process is cumbersome. Chinese workers seldom change jobs and often remain with their first employer, although they may be promoted within /1 The current labor force may be underutilized in some economic activities, but it has not been possible to take better utilization of the existing labor force into account in this estimate.  C46400/J78813/D997/1 7 - 16 - the enterprise. The place of employment is often the place of birth and childhood. This stability, which is politically and economically but also culturally conditioned, has advantages, as is evident from a similar situation in Japan. However, it also has disadvantages, including a tendency to create pockets of unemployment or labor shortage. 2.21 The allocation and employment of new labor follow a complicated procedure. Manpower needs are determined on an annual basis, and this process is closely correlated with the planning and budgeting work (para. 4.09) and based on surveys. Enterprises that come under local government submit an estimate of the number of new employees (graduates from universities and other schools) they require by field for the next year to the State Planning Commission through local planning commissions; those that come under ministries submit their estimates to the State Planning Commission through their respective ministries. A meeting is held between the central and local planning commissions and the ministries that have requested graduates. In light of national and local priorities, decisions are made on graduate quotas for the central government and each local government. Universities and schools are then nocified of the number of graduates by field to be supplied to specific enterprises and organizations. These institutions in turn assign students to particular enterprises and organizations, based as far as possible on students preferences. 2.22 The transfer from one enterprise to another is also complex. If an industry needs unskilled or si'led workers, it applies to the provincial industrial bureau under which it belongs. If this bureau cannot transfer labor from any of its industries, it applies to the labor bureau, which looks at the whole labor market of the province to find the requested labor. If this bureau is also unsuccessful, it applies to the Central Labor Bureau in Beijing. If an industry needs middle-level technicians or professionals, it initiates a similar Drocedure, although the planning commissions (provincial and central levels) would deal with the request rather than the labor bureaus. For administrative staff and office personnel, the factory would apply via the provincial industrial bureau to the provincial bureau of personnel, and if necessary to the State Council