India - Economic situation and prospects

Report No. 3872-INVW Economic Situation and G PY Prospects of India April 7, 1982 South Asia Region FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the WorId Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY AND OTHER EQUIVALENTS Currency Prior to June 6, 1966: IUS$1.00 = Rs 4.7619 Rs 1.00 = US$0.21 From June 6, 1966 to mid-December 1971: US$1.00 = Rs 7.50 Rs 1.00 = US$0.13333 Mid-December 1971 to end-June 1972: US$1.00 = Rs 7.27927 Rs 1.00 = US$0.1374 After end-June 1972: floating rate Rate end February 1982 US$1.00 = Rs 9.268 Rs 1.00 = US$0.1079 Rupee trade figures have been converted into dollars by using the prevailing exchange rate up to 1970/71. For subsequent years the following average IMF trade conversiorl factors/market rates have been used (rupees per US dollar): 1971/72 : 7.444 1974/75 : 7.976 1977/78 : 8.563 1972/73 : 7.706 1975/76 : 8.653 1978/79 : 8.206 1973/74 : 7.791 1976/77 : 8.939 1979/80 : 8.076 1980/81 : 7.893 For 1981/82, the average market rate for the first eleven months was Rs 8.90. For the year as a whole the rate of Rs 8.90 has been used. Weights Unless otherwise specified all weight measures are metric. Years. The Indian fiscal year runs from April 1 through March 31. Abbreviations Used (unless otherwise specified) n.a. = not available n.s. = not significant (blank) = not applicable  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY TITLE ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS OF INDIA COUNTRY INDIA REGION SOUTH ASIA SECTOR COUNTRY ECONOMIC REPORT TYPE CLASSIF MM/YY LANGUAGES 3872-IN CEM Restricted 04 82 English PUBDATE 8204 ABSTRACT : This report updates the economic situation and prospects of India through Indian fiscal year 1981/82. The report focuses on three major issues facing the Indian economy in the future--the mobilization of resources, both internal and external, for development; the efficiency with which available resources are used, with special reviews of the investment experience in irrigation, power, railways and coal; and the prospects for reducing the rate of growth of population in light of the preliminary demographic information from the 1981 census. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.   Acknowledgement This report was prepared in New Delhi by members of the World Bank Resident Mission and of the India Division at the Bank headquarters under the direction of Atilla Sonmez (Principal Economist). The main contributors were Leslie Abbie, Zafer Ecevit, Roger Grawe, James Q. Harrison, Frederick Jasper- sen, Felipe Morris, Armando Pinell-Siles, Sunanda Sengupta, Pravin Visaria and John Wall. Christopher Hall and V. J. Ravishankar contributed to the resource mobilization chapters, and along with P. Rajagopalan provided statistical and general research support. Angus Hone and James Riedel con- tributed to the chapter on external resources. K. Srinivasan and K. C. Zachariah contributed to the chapter on population.   ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS OF INDIA Table of Contents Page No. Basic Data Summary and Conclusions ...................... .............. i CHAPTER 1: Current Developments ............. .............. A. Overview .. *............................................ 1 B. Power, Coal, Petroleum and Railways .................... 2 C. Industry ....................................... ................. 6 D. Agriculture ............................................ 9 E. Prices, Money and Credit ........ ............ ...... . 14 F. Plan Allocation ........................................ 15 G. Balance of Payments .................................... 17 PART I: Resource Mobilization .............. * .............. 21 -CHAPTER 2: Domestic Resource Mobilization .............. ... 23 A. Macroeconomic Setting ...........................-. 23 B. The Sixth Plan 1980-85 ..................................... 30 C. Resource Mobilization Policies .............. .. ......... 33 CHAPTER 3: External Resources .* ................... .... 43 A. Export Performance and Policy . . ........................ 46 B. Imports ................................... ... . . . 65 C. Invisibles .............................................. 74 D. Commercial Capital Flows .............................. 74 E. Official Capital Flows ... .............................. 79 Annex to Chapter 3 ......... ............. . 83 A. Exports Projections ........................--.. 83 B. Imports Projections .. ................. ................. 87 C. Estimate of Invisibles .............................-. 88 D. Capital Flows and Projections ......... .... ....... 90 PART II: Returns to Investment ............................ 93 Introduction ....... .............................. 95 CHAPTER 4: Returns to Investment in Irrigation ............ 99 A. History of Irrigation Development in India ............ . 99 B. Economic Returns to Investment in Irrigation ........... 108 C. Factors Limiting Returns to Investment in Surface Irrigation ........ ................................... 115 D. Factors Limiting Returns to Groundwater Investment ..... 128 E. Conclusion ............................................. 136  -ii- Table of Contents (contd.) Page No. CHAPTER 5: Returns to Investment in Infrastructure: Power, Coal and Railways ........... ............ 141 A. Introduction ...................................... ... 141 B. Investment and Returns to Investment ................... 143 C. Project Formulation and Implementation ................. 148 D. Capacity Utilization . . .. .............. * 153 E. Prospects ............................. 163 PART III: Population Issues ............. 173 CHAPTER 6: Population and Population Policies ............. 175 Introduction ................................... 175 A. Demographic Trends and Structure ................... .... 178 B. Population Projections and Policies .................... 193 Statistical Appendix (including List of Tables) ............ 209 Map  -iii- Page No. List of Text Tables CHAPTER 1 1.1 Percentage Change in Power Generation Over Corresponding Period of the Previous Year 1980/81 and 1981/82 .............. ................ 3 1.2 Average Annual Growth of Industrial Production 8 1.3 Estimates of Agricultural Production and Inputs 1979/80 to 1981/82 . .10 1.4 Increase in Wholesale Price Index during the Calendar Year 1981 ............................... 18 1.5 Balance of Payments Summary--Estimates . 19 CHAPTER 2 2.1 Macroeconomic Indicators, 1979-1982 25 2.2 Income/Expenditure Patterns 1970/71-1981/82 .27 2.3 Gross Savings by Sectors, 1970/71-1980/81 .28 2.4 Macroeconomic Projections .31 2.5 Savings and Investment Patterns in the Sixth Plan Period 1980-1985 .35 CHAPTER 3 3.1 External Resources Scenario ......... .44 3.2 Balance of Payments .. .. 45 3.3 Export Volume Growth Estimates for 1979 to 1981 48 3.4 Export Growth Rates by Destination .49 3.5 Export Market Shares, 1980 50 3.6 Financial Adjustments to Export Realizations Percentage Distribution by Export Category 57 3.7 Replenishment Licenses to Registered Exporters Value of Import Licenses .61 3.8 Advance Licenses with Duty Exemption for Exporters 62 3.9 Petroleum, Production and Import Summary 66 3.10 Import Requirements for Crude Oil Production Program--Offshore ........................67 3.11 Capacity, Production and Imports of Major Intermediate Goods ........ 68 3.12 Foreign Collaborations, 1970-81 .79 ANNEX TO CHAPTER 3 A.3.1 Value and Volume Changes in Indian Exports 1980/81 to 1981/82 ..84 A.3.2 Export Shares, Value and Volume Rates of Growth and Contribution to Change on Total Exports 1980/81-1984/85 ............. 86 A.3.3 Travel Receipts ....... . ........ . 89 A.3.4 Investment Income........ 89 A.3.5 Invisibles on Current Account ...92  -iv- List of Text Tables (contd.) Page No. PART II - Returns to Investment Capital and Output Growth Rates and Ratios, 1950-80 ....... ....................... 97 CHAPTER 4 4.1 Development of Irrigation in Undivided India, 1900-1945 ..................... 99 4.2 Development of Irrigation Potential since 1951 100 4.3 Expenditure on Major and Medium Irrigation Projects. 101 4.4 Indicators of Groundwater Irrigation Development since 1951 ........................... 103 4.5 Public Financing for Minor Irrigation since 1951 105 4.6 Existing and Ultimate Irrigation Potential .107 4.7 Estimated Incremental Capital-Output Ratios for Agriculture .109 4.8 Estimated Value Added per Hectare Irrigated from Specific Projects ................ 112 4.9 Anticipated and Actual Rates of Return to Private Groundwater Investment .113 4.10 Summary of Anticipated Economic Rates of Return on Surface Irrigation Projects .114 4.11 Water Use Efficiency and Size of Outlets 125 4.12 Operating Account of the Government Irrigation System 1976/77-1978/79 ..... ......... 127 4.13 Groundwater Development and Rural Electrification, 1979/80 .....-.-.... . .. . ... .... . . .. .. 131 CHAPTER 5 5.1 Infrastructure Sector-Selected Indicators (1950-1980) ...................................... 141 5.2 Incremental and Average Capital-Output Ratios ...... 144 5.3 Power, Coal and Railways: Planned Outlays and Actual Expenditure ... ............................ 146 5.4 Planned and Actual Investment Mix in Railways ...... 147 5.5 Pattern of Capital Expenditure--Coal India Limited 147 5.6 Power: Additions to Generating Capacity--Targets and Achievements 1950-1981 ....... ................ 149 5.7 Performance Indices of Thermal Plants ............. 154 5.8 Indicators of Efficiency in Capacity Utilization 156 5.9 Average Wagon Detentions at Selected Marshalling Yards .................................. ...............-- 159 5.10 Coal Production and Plan Targets and Actuals ....... 161 5.11 Loss of Production in Coal India 1977/78-1980/81 . 161 5.12 Productivity in Different CIL Companies (OMS in Tons) 1976/77-1980/81 .............. 162 5.13 Coal India: Sixth Plan Investment and Production Targets ...................... *.....O#.... 170 5.14 Contribution to Output Increases during 1980/81 and 1981/82 ............................................... 172  -V - List of Text Tables (contd.) Page No. CHAPTER 6 6.1 Key Population Statistics of Indian States and Union Territories: 1971 and 1981 ......... ... 177 6.2 Classification of 16 Major States According to Percentage Growth of their Population Relative to that in the Country during 1901-51, 1951-71 and 1971-81 . ........................... 179 6.3 Estimates of Net Migration Rates for 15 Major States, 1951-61, 1961-71 ...... ................... 181 6.4 Birth, Death and Natural Increase Rates by State, 1961-78 ................................... 183 6.5 Changes in the Size and Percentage of Urban Population by State, 1971-81 ..................... 188 6.6 Demographic Goals Enunciated by the Government of India during 1962-1981 ........... ............. 197 6.7 Targets and Achievements by Methods of Family Planning, 1969/70-1981/82 .............. .......... 199  :  Page 1 INDIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET INDIA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVERAGES LAND AREA (THOUSAND SO KM. ) MOST RECENT ESTIMATE- TOTAL 3287.6 MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME AGRICULTURAL 1809.5 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b ASIA & PACIFIC ASIA & PACIFIC GNP PER CAPITA (US$) 60.0 100.0 190.0 232.3 1136.1 ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (KILOGRAMS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 111.1 152.5 241.8 499.4 1150.6 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAR (THOUS.) 434850.0 547569.0 659217.0 URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 17.9 19.7 22.0 17.3 40.8 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILLIONS) 974.7 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 1621.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2115 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. K1M. 132.3 166.6 200.5 153.6 373.1 PER SQ. KM. AGRICULTURAL LAND 246.7 308.0 355.8 360.3 2382.8 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 40.1 42.4 41.1 37.4 39.8 15-64 YRS. 56.8 54.7 56.0 59.2 56.7 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.5 3.5 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 1.8 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 URBAN 2.5 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.8 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 44.2 40.3 34.0 27.7 29.7 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 22.7 17.4 13.5 10.2 7.5 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.1 2.8 2.3 2.5 1.9 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) 64.0 3782.0 5619.0 USERS (PERCENT OF MARRIED WOMEN) .. 12.0 22.6 20.4 44.1 FOOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 98.0 102.0 93.0 107.1 123.7 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OP CALORIES (PERCENT OF REQUIREMENTS) 93.0 92.0 91.0 98.6 112.6 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 52.0 51.0 50.0 56.9 62.5 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 17.0 15.0 13.0 14.2 19.7 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 27.1 20.4 14.8 14.6 4.8 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 42.2 47.5 51.9 57.7 64.0 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) . 134.0 125.0 89.1 50.2 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 17.0 33.0 30.1 45.9 URBAN .. 60.0 83.0 65.8 68.0 RURAL .. 6.0 20.0 20.1 34.4 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 18.0 20.0 17.6 53.4 URBAN .. 85.0 87.0 71.0 71.0 RURAL .. 1.0 2.0 4.8 42.4 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 4850.4/c 4889.0 3617.4 3857.7 4428.7 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 9630.07i 8296.5 6429.4 6411.8 2229.7 POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 2149.0/d 1612.9 1311.1 1132.8 588.5 URBAN .. .. 363.5 322.3 579.6 RURAL .. .. 10429.1 5600.5 1138.5 ADMISSIONS PEE HOSPITAL BED .. .. HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL 5.2 5.6 5.2 URBAN 5.2 5.6 4.8 RURAL 5.2 5.6 5.3 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL 2.6 2.8 URBAN 2.6 2.8 .. RURAL 2.6 2.8 .. ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. .. URBAN .. .. .. RURAL .. .. ..  Page 2 INDIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET INDIA REFERENCE GROUPS (WEIGHTED AVERAGES - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE)- MOST RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b ASIA & PACIFIC ASIA & PACIFIC EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRIMARY: TOTAL 61.0 73.0 79.0 85.9 99.8 MALE 80.0 90.0 94.0 94.4 100.6 FEMALE 40.0 56.0 63.0 64.5 98.8 SECONDARY: TOTAL 20.0 26.0 28.0 38.0/aa 53.5 MALE 30.0 36.0 37.0 34.67/a 58.4 FEMIALE 10.0 15.0 18.0 18.0/aa 48.6 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (I OF SECONDARY) 8.0 1.0 1.0 3.8 21.1 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIMARY 29.0 41.0 41.0 32.8 34.2 SECONDARY 16.0 21.0 .. 19.9 31.7 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 28.0 33.4 36.0 52.8 86.5 CONSUMPTION PASSENGER CARS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.7 12.7 KADIO RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 4.9 21.5 32.5 35.3 174.1 TV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.7 50.6 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 11.0 16.0 16.9 14.6 106.8 CINEMA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 4.0 6.3 3.8 3.4 4.3 LABOR FORCE TOTAL IABOR FORCE (THOUSANDS) 189761.4 220670.5 256699.4 FEiALE (PERCENT) 31.2 32.4 31.9 29.3 37.4 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 74.0 74.0 71.0 69.8 50.2 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 11.0 11.0 11.0 14.1 21.9 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 43.6 40.3 38.9 39.7 40.2 MALE 58.0 52.6 51.3 51.5 49.8 FEMALE 28.2 27.1 25.7 23.3 31.1 ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 INCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIGHEST 5 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 26.7 26.31e 22.2 HIGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 51.7 48.9/e 49.4 LOWEST 20 PERCENT OF ROUSEHOLDS 4.1 6.77i 7.0 LOWEST 40 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 13.6 17.27e 16.2 POVERTY TARGET GROUPS ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 132.0 134.1 248.6 RURAL .. .. 114.0 111.6 193.7 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. .. .. 249.8 RURAL .. .. .. .. 234.3 ESTIMATEU POPULATION BELOW ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT) URBAN .. .. 40.3 41.7 21.2 RURAL .. .. 50.7 51.7 32.2 Not available Not applicable. NOTES /a The group averages for each indicator are population-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries among the indicators depends on availability of data and is not uniform. /aa China included in total only. /b Unless otherwise noted, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970, between 1969 and 1971; and for Host Recent Estimate, between 1976 and 1979. Ic 1962; /d 1958; /e 1964-65. May, 1981  Pagze 3 DPLIglTXih9 OP SOCIAL 1?90010A010 Notes' Ahth-Sh ebe data co dtcc Iros ---oo generally 7adged the most auktaCtaoto and meltable, ot bal 1a- be noted bolt tbny nay aot bn tint- atoaly cmprble eoa- of the hock oftfsacadoddftlttoo an...d -oncpts cued by differeot -matton doclioae the data Crhe date t,utn t -lso an l to donotibe otie- of iuaad,tdi-ate treds, and -aeeolnCotafe odor difft.r..ona betao-no-oeae Tbe rofeoo. gecy ar (1) tbe same country gec-; of the subj-ct co.ntry and 2) a -nttey gonuP vial somwht bights narrat i-oto abo the co-ttY groP ofrh -,bnc coun tryecp lot "CapitaC tr1 u S- 11- hopttr groa thee 'lMtddlo Incm llorth AfrICa ead Udle haut' in ob-oc bec..u.. of tro-g-r S.,intcfua of ihtdteal, . Ithrb -t--ce group dan. the crar ar ppoleton weighted -roal mms foe eac Wui.tanr and eon only abet ua9rly f the tontio- to a 91000 h.n dalta ftt ththaiote St-e the oo--rgn at -ucetrtec ata the I odbClt.en defeoda ct the aoollollty tI dots an o u utfos'n -u-ieo moat ho e-Ce....od to -Itab tg angsof ou. todinutoCt.e orcohen Thunoutaaaon -tly -ufot1 -tc teh -1-a of cu -edI-er- at u thea l ... the coa-try cod etfer-c 3rcupo LANt AchEA (th-o..oudu q o _________ ____ Total- Tomi ufacoar-aConpisio Iaoi cro cod otla-d -otarn orba ,ad rura) d-locdd by chlr coocco euhrcihallhda Olololtoal -toccaco f ogccohur.o utcl .-ta c-oP--oly or -e-amoly a-oaloile to ricfl co-d PrI,cCt ac--ra o_d opein.od la -td -n or cepo, cococea, orhe etA hiecheu godto no Ice follta, 1978 data " beIlotoIooe.e.r. Oyltapll.l nat.enbciuhe..uto pee-netly uct.fed by at it - e physiunot Etutbitnhm-t ptoodhti yiolaly-tu- 19SffiRtayIA (Si)- 191'pe Fcpcasemeet curo obnpie,ca- dial ca -e-eoa -uoldmd tce-l tooyn-lu, hovr-, -uldo h.meleh cuhond by oeoauonreoo mthod cc Wald loch dtlau (1977-79 buu-a); 1960, cod a-djool Ceerere nco yeaoeorly enffCo by a phyalotco (hue by ~970, ond 1919 deto nedre noefatoot, I cl uc, dif a etc-) ohi offra-potion Ic....o. dntto an petode u Iattd sat ofuitnl ......t.ns For st_ts INfiPlOl CONSiPfllTION fIll CAPITA - Aeo-i -o-apsion of --onotl enegy (cull atoi purposes erb- hoayt.laiu -luode VHi rlcpigomm autaa aledugo, -or -tn, 1uo an cod hydr-,nula codlethnrea ale- Can turd houltl_e 1oo1 or taro boupintlo od medlo-l and eanoetty tomm iy) to biloarot of coal eqot,icuo aer Cypit., .96, iam. od .... -mtnC- Spe....aiand heapitclo ae i-odud only coder tctnh alts Aduion- ne oUr-itol led. - rCoun oubee of dnuitot or dtu-h-c1- terehtytl dtcidod by7 the otb-r of heds 1IPPPiATII8 dOt VITLa iTATISTICS Totl Pcultas. SId-oteithusaday - As at (dy is lIlt, 1970, .ad 1779 fOltO ""'Tota. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~A--as tSie at !Lc...etld fnuo lr hoCehit rri, -rb-e an meal- Prb. Pcoano poctof cord) - aifol nf -rbao ec roui puplarice, A0 .. oaIehol taunu ncro eflul b there 110109 Qoatme titfettat fefui-tto of a-b-tartan sy cffCtc auy-bihicy of dut sud tholet some eau1- A bnednr tIdeer nay or soy out ho includad An anoogrootetes 1990,1911, cod i9ls data tba buaohot farsattooCupst toralatIce -roloo-iooa hcernge980btr of pcraca tar coos - Ce, cabot.. cudtotl totel acyohertan by agn .an secod t'ntl natehaty she larehity -au.dnlouCny-lol nhtg ald ctpouotsaout u frojeonn- pacnomfrs foo -rotatay room opisof three luoni -sa- aonraotd ports ing Ife c.cptt-y at ht-h t_c_csga~trhecetry.a pe-cpita lu-u ucotne or lurc t- Catont of domlceel -stl.ub..eAtce l -el,ou _Insl life -op-cocoY soahilnatug a 77 1 peor The rot- Ccer-tnice dnall5nSa ostb Ieatriolty to1010 ....ny as Pen-nata Cemt fur Cocin "tat loho hrfeolaassu nln ea totol, rba.. cod onto danlliogsrseeoi loch oc.ueny' is h-l thehanltedoc o -e ...locobtn-tc- uf nettaity Pi_7CATTOi seA f-orlisy steeds tot prjol t por...Ad5ossnditouttato tictceoy yoalaios-I.atato_aY pyltc thereJ i- at 9 th nlt rtc' sho -tn. nIc atd f-sl C--dos ts..al, sole and fm the barth toC ne t eqac to thu doach oats, sod also th, t90 strusuan-oreie f nIl aloe am thn primary loelasptourgnIf rsoe ecito .....c... TanahlcdutarrfrIlt rate AuIt- s prtecy othof-age poIptlotoo, --relly tc a abide otdbl the tplreto Cne faioon erdcin ao k,mc gooarafloe Y---t boo odjo-sd lot dlff trea IngtIsbo of -poenued_rt.aeIn cIcut ecot atuelt moonly Th- antloun-y paoatoao-y usan Vn nooo dcno ooiets p e-ndu p--ne e.ansood or ehe aI o b pratnd unnotloc f the popalonits at omon pcpdla are bolot or aha- nbr ofiodo1 acho-ae to nn pear 2000, nod the -ut of d-ciee of fetealip rat to nmplnom- iso.od'KY ut - tta, I nab_L oosf Itn_jt- ~Cnupad colbore;--odary enut level ed~~~tzmuosinr tn atlenfo yeme uf appeoced primemy loeet lettttote oooolat eeahed - TZhu poo ahet ste1tt ry popaluttac pr-oldas g-otno.ceuiu, o teahert- o i-tuttatitto tot PaPA nieham hoo reahd aualYof2 Il 7 years of cot, arcpadoc tr-uaeltei ly kts . h - ltd-y-a populartan pte squr kbl ...tt- (lI1 ocaen0 f roCattuel aclinoI -uee of su-od-ey - OooannaomlItoatitaston tatul noen, 1960, 1970 end 1979 Aeon otiade tc.hntta. idutteln other pt-gr-m uhih prurot odupoed- Pot q5 . he .enlnotllad - Cooptnod - . ch rre tot ....lrto len-d cetly orandepcrsstrm tf cooudry tunttilla mey 11, hIlt ood lION dat Pnpal-tnanh trroea - poitnr., aed aeo- ce - ltu ntdeneu -otolld In Au poar..), and -otted (05 yaura cod -cnr as p-rooCgto of mtd-yn-t gop..- oteyoagir beu,1960, 1921, cod i979zdaf Adam ienac rote Irceonot) - Litltere aut (mile r toe and -otette roonlatlot teCu-h SuttIteoet'I- asl - ccoel coc'th enate of totn. mid- anaptoa .ece of t.tald ndat pupalution atd 15 y.Cot snd o... psrppinesfan 1911-gd, 0919-70 , and 070o-79 ycaolo ouhfte f__t)e ab -uoal -r-ah tart of _rhe popo- CfltlIWyIoyf iltaoo Cte 91-10., 19101-70, and hIll-7a nnoeetr oe boudnaoamo Pecansgat.C t -nupehen seno Cruds ttrnb latt .e o....a... .A- .cc Inom btitha par aho-o-d cC efd-yecr Cmrs sc It ..os then nig;ht Na-on; -anldas- hanon,ha--m asd ppulolutil; 1990, 1971 , otd 1979 da-a. tlit-y -eool-.. ircn Death 'tot (C.t Chcoeao)-eAuci d_oeebu t par ..osada ef eta-yost tcdtR ..niur Ctar eheana roC- - All epla of ecnttyro for tdt. pouoIon.1960, 1919. ooi t9yg dons btltdtat. ta Cge Itm poll pb thoo ofp`puittu,mcosu- Crust esotudconio Rtoot-Average oom- of d-oghtots . uc tlh bean it, lfc-sad renotoor nuourtt_d In persanttftnnto of- totf her _oems Pet I,oer r _ad t ohaapen eot prenote og-cfiofr-a tsnu inmfet data for -oct y-sr nay tot be comparable alert aity rtes ascplc-p -mae oCtg_n ohedog Ln 1969, 1970, and 1979.-. sot o ttiea ahollahef lutnoata Pemay Paooao-cuntor. Actul thomnd) - Anul tate of tcnp- r TV laei-em (Per nh-oo-d TVualal-I -so -Cer Its~ hoadoat am ef blet-tootro dattoe uodnt capianoat otecont P-ely PI.iosdg reagre 9ora publIc pan tho.a.ed-pyuato,etldnouilceoet 10TVcter P-ilto PI-.aItt-los(noo dsetdcmo PneCutage of sometd Is aruentls end in year eh-o togiaCteoiu at TV onto i0 a ef fect pobla-Cotn do-me pranstily eCtecrdttg ge_arl enu. ICt ia ettmdnttd PItW IDt NUTliTloN4 to in "doily" tf it oppeerm o leant fI- toe . ..mnutet Codes at Pond Prduction ret Cortem (hI96-2ll o - InOo of pot c-titatusal Cinem Annua Iendna pin oit. ec lent - Sasnd en alot eustr at yrodara- ofal Coed -cedliet- Prod--oo soluased cod fon- ndrtahe1tu sol during the Y-ar. ieoiadtog aduiostoo ta drdoe-ooots- is ao -olnod- yer bolo, bcuadctiou CCon P pefCep goads It. gnngsta ad -bile ots uatn o nu.gat) ahich or ndbltn-dc-,,taisu-telnntn (0.9 nafgn nsA te emncdd.Aggre9ntt ptodoorno ad each --tony ia based onLAlifi FORCE -ctisl ocrl g prcd-oe prtoa ealgkru, 1961-6fy, 1970, nod 19 79 danataTal laher P0-cm (Iesna eomdly antino per-eo, iInldileg Per oupita nolyo nlrla roc f - IM -Ll nenestr) -lePumad team -eae farces -od noesyinyd bat enatn hostoa mtdett, nt.,. per dop Aniluhic apyle opecdss poaro,fprslo earcopara.ble, l9t0, 1979 n 99dn -aPrtt soC bcg _ rono. Oa oplmoocld atiso fedm ae, IPsl e nr naolabor fotun aa Pn-Ceot. of mural 2abte fonts ooatirou sedit aedprotu-nlg, mnd lo-oe it d-narlbatha.. leqomn- kAti-Ituto (b-r_al - to ttb a faml9.foetn, aotat; ot seaotermetimattd by PFA hoscd aCislltoc adn n- -1ns mCtt- fishing os pea.tmtsgn n total lohoC tfon, 1900.. l..t and 1919 data. aodoeodn-rcbeyp cipyltc,adalau Iteot o as tadnosty aste cod loso pr-tcsge of tota1l.Ishn fo-ee, I9h0, hoosebo.ld 1a-tl 1991-As, 1970. and 1917 data 1970 and 1979 Attn net sopply of foCd ymr day Nrs oupply of fend Idint loud am hao No -core tote . 00 - aea 00 tonal, mole, and foeal labor f-Cro qneecn f-t all ceutoi-s -Ctalluhd by 1016 P., pecde ia inuc paaeentngn at stel, solo sod fenl paeitof oil utmteecity alooc f El `ea-s of Ctut1 P-nin Vnt day -od It gene of otn -nd 1910, 1971, nod 1979 daun,. Tisunats1 hesed on 110 'e purtanpatiot cOne yalo- prtit f htut 19 gramn should bn attoo wrtalof Ths- stood- Isastg ag-e ncnt ftepPaltCe ad lctg Ifto treed A ara t I...r eh-a tho o1 ros ti .tol prtlosd 21 SrC a nstetanua trIealul-taC... snei rtmun atn-lg a heutd o md by Al in the fiOr onmtlcroc n Ratio ef papulsoann cod- 15 end tS uod -oe lSorld road rroy, 1961-1, 970 and 1977 data tn tf,rc-ot lbitC forc Pernait artmt arty en loinl otd palat - -Peneepply o,f f so de- r-snd finu atal atd poInt on gra..a put day, 196l-65, 19P0 atd 1977 dote 190090 DIIOTIoTIOt ChId (nn I-s) ocaitc fes(meckcn-d( - Atonal d-ntsh e huedt Protg fPoce aoo(ohl Ccobta-d hrdI - i-eaod by tiobos age gto.... Ot, croroI c.IhIn age gruap, for meat d-olP"oecut-por.cin, rarhen 10 pn-at. poc-ts 20 peoctt, and Cooresc 19 perceo stem data asoedfInsiuf cbl-n, 1960, 197f aci S~79 dato, of h-unhoids Lifo a. acoa 1mrb Ire-rt)- .htCat -btohr of pertuof ldfs e-mlolmeThe floIgutisatemnn- o yeout teoote t poo-ty le-ol, an birth, 1911. lIlt ted i199 dee u- hud h e,I duorrc I'et n "ad Iml cacto Ittant fotsaln'c tan 7 pe tc -od7 - ..a.a deaths of ttosu -n ... Year ttinanod Abaclu- Pocerr Incme Inoe (LISS ret opto - -rhs codeto- af oA e Pr hca..a-d loot bi(ebn Abselate po'anty tetn marl Ls shac la,`n leve babe obtht ila Ac...nta hafe Oa-n fe-rce of ool- tul-csl uht10 Tatel H-9a- eutoittutally aeat dIet PuI moooa oofand mooletsi out her of _pnay (totl, arboo, cod mel wt restal as 00 af -totr narply (imclodeu erosdua.. eat or aterotod hot -n_otamued sfta Icootofo or stacdpoa locatad soc 0cm thns lid osfors Pave Itu _ a heLecel ath adicat-e for higher clte of idslmf It ara trea taotnnrod a helf stbtc eosoaalesoooo o th.thua C rra Cea fSelsoe Pr fanBlsoAbsolte ProntCY - Lonome lere Iponti --nb.. do 01 eootoscod ud-plopooc-ntnob pr of -heAn.- faChMe the puor" h gobn of eoitt aCcal oVkno codoct t)houc d by eoee dl~islgcm eMs..I .C P M porosngm ofnhlenonetnpplaca Pttaduaosylnle Ciah qoaitf led (n moAnedl irhut a, h. oCoo s'tlop leo - oLn.tto1 pe btyst in.tent 1-raclnno 0lhaidt 00 mashe ci pecottotegdS~.lD.. ly. solm and1 yn-l goadapnro 1 ontut, peaotoa earse, ae auo.iseaneuormeMYa9  Page 4 ECON0MIC DEVELOPMENT DATA a/ GNP PER CAPITA IN 1980 1US$240 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1980/81 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (7 constant price.) us$ Bln. % 1955/56-1959/60 1960/61-1964/65 1965/66-1969/70 1970/71-1974175 1975/76^1979,80 GNP at Market Prices 159.37 100.0 3.7 3.6 3.6 2.9 4.1 Gross Domestic Investment 38.46 24.1 Gross National Saving 35.30 22.1 Current Account Balance -3.16 -2.0 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1978 Value Added (at factor cost) Labor Force i/ V.A. Per Worker USS Bln. 7. Mil. % US$ b of National Averaze Agriculture 39.8 39.6 180.6 70.7 220 56 Industry 25.2 25.1 32.2 12.6 783 199 Services 35.5 35.3 42.6 16.7 833 211 Total/Average 100.5 100.0 t- GOVERMENT FINANCE General Government e/ Central Government Rs. Bln. % of GDP Rs. Bln. % of GDP 1980/81 1980/81 1976/77-1980/81 1980/81 1980/81 1976/77-1980/81 Current Receipts 238.19 19.0 19.1 125.41 10.0 10.6 Current Expenditures 238.93 19.0 18.0 133.29 10.6 10.6 Current Surplus/Deficit -0.74 -0.1 1.1 - 7.88 - 0.6 N8.. Capital Expenditures f/ 107.35 8.5 7.6 79.99 6.4 5.4 External Assistance (net) d/ 12.86 1.0 1.0 MONEY. CREDIT AND PRICES 1970/71 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 February 1981 Febary 1982 (Rs Billion outstanding at end of period) Money and Quasi Noney 109.8 194.6 223.2 273.2 329.1 398.6 467.9 553.1 536.13 615.53 Bank Credit to Govarnment (net) 54.6 95.3 97.9 118.5 137.3 162.4 201.0 258.1 238.22 292.18 Bank Credit to Cossmercial Sector 64.6 126.5 153.7 185.1 212.2 253.5 306.3 363.2 349.03 422.15 (Percentage or Index Numbers) April-Feb 1980/81 April-Feb 1981/82 Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP 27.3 28.0 30.1 33.9 40.8 40.9 44.1 44.0 Wholesale Price Index (1970/71 -s100) 100.0 174.9 173.0 176.6 185.8 185.8 217.6 257.0 255.9 280.5 Annual percentage changes in: Wholeosle Price Inden 7.7 25.2 -1.1 2.1 5.2 - 17.1 18.1 18.4 9.6 Bank Credit to Government (net) 15.0 9.2 2.7 21.0 15.9 18.3 23.8 28.4 28.6 / 22:7 h/ Bank Credit to Cosmmercial Sector 19.4 18.2 21.5 20.4 14.6 19.5 20.8 18.6 16.6 g/ 20.9 h/ 8' The per capita GNP estimate is at market prices, calculated by the conversiom technique used in the World Bank Atlas, 1981. All other conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. b/ Quick Estimates, Central Statistical Organization. c/ Computed from trend line of GNP at factor cost series, including one observation before first year and one observation after last year of listed period. d/ World Bank estimates; not necessarily consistent with official figures. e/ Transfers between Centre and States have been netted out. f/ All loans and advances to third parties have:been netted out. a,/ Percentage change from end-February, 1980 to end-February 1981. h/ Percentage change from end-February, 1981 to end-February 1982. i/ Total Labor Force and percentage breakdown from Sixth Five Year Plan, Table 2.6 and Annexure Table 13.8.  Page 5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1977/78 /81) (US $ Mln.) US$ EX'nR ( Exports of Goods 6,978 7,998 8,504 8,700 Engineering Goods 908 12 Imports of Goods -8,519 -11,302 -15,838 -16,000 Tea 506 7 Trade Balance -1,541 -3,304 - 7,334 - 7,300 Gems 403 5 NFS (net) 717 1,100 722 915 Clothing 501 7 Leather and Leather Resource Balance - 824 -2.204 - 6,612 - 6,385 Products 457 6 Jute Manufactures 303 4 Interest Income (net) k/ 14 196 370 212 Iron Ore 321 4 Net Transfers 1/ 1,185 1,577 3,079 1,840 Cotton Textiles 316 4 Sugar 102 1 Balance on Current Account 375 - 431 -3.163 -4,333 Others 3,541 48 Official Aid Total 7.448 100 Disbursements 1,695 1,738 2,337 2,724 .g/ EXTERNAL DEBT. MARCH 31, 1981 Amortization - 702 - 608 - 707 - 659 USS billion Transactions with IMF - 158 - 1,035 690 Outstanding and Disbursed 17.2 All Other Items 265 - 475 147 - 797 Undisbursed 7.5 Outstanding, including 24.7 Increase in Reserves |-) -1,475 - 224 351 2,375 Undisbursed Gross Reserves (end year) E/ 7,357 7,579 7,228 4,853 Net Reserves (end year)'n/ 7,357 7,579 6,901 3,876 DEBT SERVICE RATIO FOR 1980/81 i/n 11,2 per cent Fuel and Related Materials IBRD/IDA LENDING. DECEMBER 31. 1981 Imports (Petroleum) 2,043 4,045 6,657 6,075 USS million IELRD Exports 24 26 33 n.a Outstanding and Disbursed 984 5646 Undisbursed 880 4634 Outstanding, including Undisbursed 1864 10280 RATE OF EXCHANGE June 1966 to mid-December 1971 US$1.00 - Rs 7.5 Re 1.00 - US$0.13333 Mid-December 1971 to end-June 1972 US$1.00 - Rs 7.27927 Re 1.00 - US$0.137376 After end-June 1972 Floating Rate Spot Rate end-December 1980 US$1.00 - Rs 7.930 Re 1.00 - US$0.126 Spot Rate end-December 1981 US$1.00 - Rs 9.099 Re 1.00 - US$0.110 i/ Estimated. Figures given cover all investment income (net). Major payments are interest on foreign loans and charges paid to IMF, and major receipt is interest earned on foreign assets. / Figures given include workers' remittances but exclude official grant assistance, which is included within official aid disbursements. m/ Excludes net use of IMF credit. n