Cameroon - Economic memorandum

Report No 2877-CM FLFVI United Republic of Cameroon Economic Memorandum April 30, 1980 Western Africa Region Country Programs II The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bn This documen has a restrcted istrbuton and may be used by recipents on in the perortane of their offical duttes Its contens may rnt otherwise be discosed without Wod BRank authonzation  CURRENCY EQUIVALENT 1. Currency unit: CFA Franc (CFAF) 2. Fixed parity: 50 CFAF = 1 FF The CFAF floats against other currencies. 3. The following rates have been used in this report: Fiscal Years 1 $ CFAF Calendar Years FY CY 1979/80 and later 210 210 1980 and later 1978/79 217 213 1979 1977/78 239 226 1978 1976/77 248 246 1977 1975/76 225 239 1976 1974/75 222 214 1975 1973/74 230 240 1974 1972/73 241 223 1973 1971/72 265 252 1972 1970/71 278 277 1971 1969/70 269 278 1970 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet 1 kilometer (km) = 0.62 miles 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres 1 square kilometer (km2) = 0.386 square miles 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.205 pounds 1 ton (t) = 2,205 pounds 1 liter (1) = 0.26 gallons Fiscal year of the Government = July 1 - June 30 Crop year = October 1 to September 30  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY l TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. COUNTRY DATA PREFACE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ....................................... i- viii PART I - RECENT DEVELOPMENTS .................................1 Population and Employment ................................ 1 Trends in Output and Resource Use (1970/71-1977/78) ...... 2 Investment Structure and Trends .......................... 6 Structure of Public Investment Expenditure .... ........... 6 Investment and Saving .................................... 8 Balance of Payments ...................................... 10 External Public Debt .. ................................... 12 Part II - ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL PROSPECTS .................... 16 Growth in the Medium term ................................ 16 Long-term Development Prospects and Constraints .... ...... 16 Mobilization of Domestic Savings, 1979-1986 .... .......... 17 External Borrowing and Debt Service Requirements .... ..... 19 Part III - PRELIMINARY BASIC NEEDS REVIEW ..................... 21 Introduction ............................................. 21 Nutrition ............ .................................... 22 Health ......................................................... 24 Education .................. 26 STATISTICAL APPENDIX ................. ......................... 30 MAPS - IBRD 12186R United Republic of Cameroon: Population, Rainfall and Transportation - IBRD 10723R1 United Republic of Cameroon: Ecological Zones This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  LIST OF TEXT TABLES Page No. 1. Structure and Growth of GDP, 1965/66-1977/78 .... ........... 2 2. Agriculture: Structure and Growth, 1965/66-1977/78 .... .... 3 3. Resources and Uses, 1965/66-1977/78 ........................ 5 4. Gross Fixed Capital Formation, 1971/72-1977/78 .... ......... 6 5. Public Investment by Sector and Source of Financing - First Two Years of the Fourth Plan, 1976/77-1977/78 ....... 7 6. Investment and Saving, 1971/72-1977/78. . . 9 7. Summary Balance of Payments ...11 8. External Public Debt . . .12 9. Average Terms and Structure of Public Debt Commitments, 1970-1978 .15 10. Gross Domestic Savings, 1979-86 . . . . 18 11. External Debt Service, 1976-86 .. ........................... 20 12. Coverage of Nutritional Requirements in Various Regions .... 22 13. National Survey of Malnutrition (1978) . . .23 14. Incidence of Diseases (1975). . . 24 15. Investment for Non-Formal Education in the Fourth Development Plan .28  COUNTRY DATA -- CAMEROON AREA POPULATION (thousand) DENSITY (1976) Total 475.4 thousand sq.km. 7,663 (Census:April) 16.1 Agricultural 156.4 thousand sq.km. 8,320 (1980 est.) HEALTH (1976 est.) POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS EDUCATION ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS Population per physician: 13,980 Life Expectancy at Birth 1976 est. Population per hospital bed: 380 (1976 estimate) 46 years Growth Rate 2.2X Primary Secondary Access to safe water Total 120.0 17.0 (% of population) total 26 NUTRITION (1970) Male 133.0 23.0 urban 35 Female 106.0 11.0 rural 22 per capita protein intake (grammes) 59.0 PUPIL/TEACHER RATIO Primary Secondary 51.0 23.0 GNP per capita (FY77/78 estimates) US$460 ANNUAL GROWTH RATES (% constant prices) GDP in FY77/78 US$ min. (as % of GDP) 1966/70 1970/76 1976/78 GDP at current market prices 3,151 4.3 6.7 4.9 Gross fixed capital formation 705 22.4 0.3 5.1 16.1 Changes in stocks 69 2.2 - Imports of goods 806 25.6 2.5 4.2 11.1 Imports of n.f.s. 151 4.8 9.8 -3.6 2.7 Exports of goods 584 18.5 4.3 5.4 -0.7 Exports of n.f.s. 125 4.0 15.0 1.8 -0.7 SHARE OF GDP BY SECTOR (Fiscal year): % GOVERNMENT BUDGET OPERATION (1978) (1974/75 market prices) Budgetary Revenue: Total US$773 mln. 1965 1970 1974 1978 Budgetary Revenue: Tax 684 Current Expenditure 565 Agriculture, fishery, Capital Expenditure 140 livestock & forestry 35.2 36.5 34.3 32.0 Treasury Deficit (-)/Surplus -21 Miming 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 Manufacturing 8.1 9.3 8.8 9.6 Construction 4.9 3.9 3.9 5.0 FINANCING Trade 20.4 18.5 15.5 16.0 Other sectors 31.2 31.5 37.1 37.0 Domestic US$6.7 Foreign US$14.3 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (FY77/78) US$ mln. % share BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (Millions of US dollars) Cocoa 194.8 25.3 FY74/75 75/76 76/77 Coffee - Robusta 157.4 20.4 Coffee - Arabica 58.7 7.6 Exports of goods & n.f.s. 625.9 696.7 817.0 Logs - cake & butter 70.6 9.2 Imports of goods & n.f.s. 704.4 770.4 882.1 Cocoa 85.9 11.1 Resource balance -78.5 -73.7 -65.1 Aluminium products (total) 33.7 4.4 Petroleum products 3.0 0.4 Net workers remittance -34.3 -32.8 -27.1 Net investment income -38.6 -45.3 -37.5 Current balance -138.6 -120.3 -94.2 PUBLIC EXTERNAL DEBT - Dec. 31, 1979 (US$ mln.) Private non-bank capital flow (net) 18.0 33.3 -26.4 Total external debt outstanding 1,934.0 (Net direct investment) 24.5 25.4 6.1 (Net private M/L loans) 4.1 8.5 5.3 Debt service ratio (1978 est.) 11.1 Net official capital flow 66.8 123.4 143.4 (Capital grant) 19.3 24.6 18.7 (Net public M/L loans) 58.8 118.7 123.8 Monetary sector net flow 30.4 7.7 -8.5 (Commercial banks) 39.9 0.3 -10.3 (Central Bank) -9.6 7.4 1.8 Changes in Reserves 52.6 4.8 10.4   PREFACE This memorandum is based on an economic mission in April 1979, comprising Kiem Huy Phan and Regina Bendokat, economists.l/ It served as a vehicle for a discussion in March 1980 with representatives of the Cameroonean Government on the current economic situation and outlook in Cameroon, on progress at the technical level in preparing the next medium-term development plan and a perspective planning framework, and on the next steps in the World Bank's program of economic work on Cameroon. The report as it stands is, essentially, a stocktaking of the present macroeconomic indicators, supplemented by a summary of the quantitative results of Cameroon's first population census and a preliminary review of issues relating to the satis- faction of basic needs. Within the Bank's program of economic work, reports are being prepared on industrialization policies and the energy sector, and missions are planned in FY81 to evaluate agricultural policies and public sector finance. The Cameroon Government itself is undertaking a comprehensive review of long-term policy options and constraints. Our next economic report will make use of these pieces of ongoing work to provide a broader evaluation of the policy framework for Cameroonian economic and social development. 1/ We wish to acknowledge the valuable administrative and secretarial work, particularly of Beatriz Arias and Brigitte Deenmamode, in the production of the report.   SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Introduction i. The basic factors underlying Cameroon's development prospects in the medium- and long-term remain essentially as discussed in Part II of the IBRD economic report of 1978.1/ The price outlook for most of Cameroon's major export commodities through the 1980s--except for cocoa--(according to the latest projections by the World Bank's Commodities Division) and the contribu- tion of new oil resources are such that the country will be subject to fewer financial constraints as compared with the analysis of our 1978 report. This report will concentrate (in Part I) on reviewing developments during the first two years of the Fourth Plan (1976-78) as compared with the Third Plan period (1971-76) in terms of trends in output and resource use, investment structure and trends, structure of public investment, investment and saving, the balance of payments and external public debt. Cameroon's economic and financial prospects are examined (in Part II) with emphasis on growth in the medium-term, long-term development prospects and constraints, mobilization of domestic savings, external borrowing and debt service requirements. The report also contains (Part III) a first step towards a basic needs review for Cameroon aiming at an assessment of the data base for basic needs policies in nutrition, health services and education. 1/ United Republic of Cameroon (Report No. 1798-CM), March 22, 1978.  - ii - RECENT DEVELOPMENTS Trends in Output and Resource Use (1970/71-1977/78). ii. The revised official national accounts show an acceleration in GDP growth in real terms from 4.7 percent per year during the Third Plan (1971/72-1975/76) to 8.3 percent during the first two years of the Fourth Plan (1976/77-1977/78). Recovery in agricultural and manufacturing growth and in the supporting tertiary activities as well as greatly expanded investment activities led to the high output growth during 1976-78. iii. During 1976-78, domestically available resources in real terms increased by about 10 percent a year compared with 3.4 percent during the Third Plan as a result of GDP growth, particularly substantial increases in imports, and an average decrease in exports because the drop of 15 percent in 1976/77 was followed by a recovery of only 10 percent. Very rapid real increases in expenditure on GDP and net imports occurred in both consumption and investment compared with slow growth during the Third Plan. Increasing at the rate of nearly 11 percent during 1976-78 due to very high income growth, private consumption as a share of GDP was 73.3 percent in 1977/78 compared with the three year averages of 71.1, 74.1 and 74.5 in 1975/76, 1970/71, and 1965/66 respectively (the ending years of the Third, Second and First Plans). Gross fixed capital formation reached a record high of 22 percent of GDP in 1977/78. Investment Structure and Trends iv. Total gross domestic fixed capital formation during the Third Plan is estimated at CFAF 521 billion in 1974/75-1976/77 prices of which 54 percent was financed by or through the Government and other public entities, and 46 percent privately. During the first two years of the Fourth Plan, total GFCF was CFAF 310 billion at 1975-77 prices, of which 51 percent was public and 49 private. Private investment grew relatively faster than public invest- ment during these two years, mainly due to large investments in oil exploration and development (27 percent of total private investment). In real terms, annual average private investment during 1977/78-1978/79 was 157 percent of the annual average private investment during the Third Plan. The corresponding ratios for public investment and total GFCF were 141 and 149 percent. Structure of Public Investment Expenditure v. During the first two years of the Fourth Plan, the share of public investment financed by domestic resource mobilization was 41 percent compared with 57 percent during the Third Plan. The Central Government financed (corresponding figures for the Third Plan are shown in parentheses) 17 per- cent of total public investment (33 percent) and the public enterprises, 21 percent (17 percent). The resources made available under foreign loans and grants were equivalent to 59 percent (43 percent). Forty seven percent (33 percent) of Central Government resources were devoted to transport and communi- cation infrastructure. Forty one percent (50 percent) were for social and administrative infrastructure. Investment by the public enterprises in the  - iii - productive sectors accounted for 72 percent (32 percent) of their resources allocated to investment purposes. Two thirds of foreign finance (36 percent) went to the productive sectors, and 29 percent (51 percent) to the transport sector. Within the productive sectors, foreign finance accounted for 67 percent (44 percent) of total investment. The share of foreign finance in total investment in the transport sector was 60 percent (59 percent), and 19 percent (20 percent) in social infrastructure. Investment and Savings vi. During the Third Plan, total gross domestic capital formation including increase in stocks exceeded gross domestic savings by 19 percent for the period as a whole, although in 1973/74--a year of high export commodity prices--savings were higher than investment. During the first two years of the Fourth Plan, gross domestic savings increased substantially due mainly to high export commodity prices but investment also expanded greatly and was slightly larger than savings. On average, gross domestic savings were 16 percent of GDP during the Third Plan and 20 percent during the first two years of the Fourth Plan, and 80 and 88 percent of total capital formation during these respective periods. After taking into account net payments of wages and salaries for foreign residents in Cameroon, and of net interest and dividends on foreign borrowing and capital, and net current transfers, gross national savings represented 14 percent of GDP and 74 percent of total capital forma- tion during the Third Plan, and 19 percent of GDP and 83 percent of capital formation during the first two years of the Fourth Plan. After provision for amortization of foreign, medium- and long-term loans, net national investment accounted for 68 and 77 percent of total investment during the two periods (or 13 and 18 percent of GDP). Thus nearly one quarter of total investment was financed by foreign resources during the first two years of the Fourth Plan when substantial public savings were mobilized through the Stabilization Funds, as compared with about one third of total investment financed by foreign resources during the Third Plan. Balance of Payments -vii. The cumulative current account deficit during the first three years of the Fourth Plan (1976/77-1978/79) amounted to an estimated CFAF 76.3 (or 2.7 percent of GDP) compared with CFAF 81.3 billion (or 3.3 percent of GDP) for the Third Plan period. The current account deficit during 1976-79 as during the Third Plan was largely financed by net disbursements of public medium- and long-term loans. However, these latter amounts totalling CFAF 174.5 billion for 1976-79 (CFAF 79.0 billion during the Third Plan) accord- ing to data recorded in the Bank's Debtor Reporting System far exceeded the cumulative current account deficit of CFAF 76.3 billion and either were offset by substantial outflows elsewhere in the capital account or the results of important underestimation in the current account, or both. IWith a balance of payments surplus of CFAF 12.1 billion in 1977/78, net drawdown of interna-  - iv - tional reserves during 1976-79 was only CFAF 1.2 billion compared with CFAF 18.5 billion during the Third Plan. Gross international reserves in September 1979 of CFAF 24.5 billion were equal to five weeks of imports during 1979. External Public Debt viii. Cameroon's external medium- and long-term public debt outstanding including undisbursed increased at 37 percent a year during 1974-78 and reached US$1934 million at end-1978, compared with US$579 million at end-1974. This substantial debt accumulation is due to a rapid build-up in new loan commitments, particularly from private creditors, during 1976-78. Total private credits outstanding, including undisbursed--mostly from finan- cial institutions--reached US$686 million at end-1978 or 35 percent of total public debt outstanding from US$90 million at end-1974 or 16 percent of the total. Debt outstanding from official bilateral sources still accounted for the largest share of the total, 38 percent, and was US$731 million at end-1978 compared with US$273 million or 47 percent of the total at end-1974. Multi- lateral loans outstanding increased at the lowest rate and were US$517 million at end-1978 compared with US$215 million at end-1974. ix. Conditions and terms of foreign borrowing hardened considerably in recent years. New borrowing in 1978 was obtained at an interest rate of 6.9 percent, with 21.7 years maturity and 5.7 years grace (terms weighted by commitment amounts). The grant element of 1978 commitments declined to 24 percent of total face value, from 44 percent in 1975 and 51 percent during 1970-73. The hardening of the terms of foreign borrowing reflects the declining share of concessional loans or conversely the increasing share of private financing and borrowing from official sources on non-concessional terms from 36 percent of total new commitments in 1970-73 to 58 percent in 1974-77 to 67 percent in 1978. External borrowing from private sources in recent years, particularly in 1976 and 1978, was for manufacturing invest- ments which were mostly for a few large projects--the SONARA petroleum refinery, the CELLUCAM paper pulp project and the ALUCAM aluminum smelter plant. Borrowing for the manufacturing sector amounted to US$184 million and US$213 million or 50 and 41 percent of total foreign borrowing in 1976 and 1978. In 1977, external borrowing,mainly for the Song Loulou hydroelectricity project and mostly from official sources,amounted to US$143 million or 41 percent of the total. Substantial foreign loans continued to be contracted for transport infrastructure and equipment amounting to US$87, 97, and 177 million in 1976-78 but accounting for an average of only 28 percent of total commitments compared with more than one half of the total in 1974-75 (US$83 million each year). External borrowing for agriculture, forestry and fishing, although increasing substantially to US$59 million from the average of US$23 million during 1974-77 still accounted for about 10 percent of total new commitments.  ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL PROSPECTS Growth in the Medium Term x. The outlook for agricultural and industrial growth in the first half of the 1980s is favorable. Cocoa output is expected to be maintained at 110,000 tons or above; arabica coffee to recover and exceed its previous production peak (of 32,300 tons) well before the mid-1980s and Robusta coffee to continue to expand. Most other commercial and food crops, livestock and fishing, and commercial forestry production are projected to increase at least 4 percent a year. Crops, such as rubber, which are being developed by specific investment efforts, will grow at much faster rates. Overall agricul- tural growth during 1978-86 should average 4-4.5 percent a year. Produc- tion from existing and expanded manufacturing facilities (particularly food, beverage, construction materials, aluminum and products), new industrial projects, and oil refining and the oil fields is projected to contribute to manufacturing and mining growth of 7.5 percent a year. Substantial growth in construction and services is expected to accompany the high level of production and investment activities. Overall GDP growth is projected to be 5-6 percent a year during 1978-86. This growth prospect is well sup- ported by international demand as reflected in the price outlook for most of Cameroon's export commodities and domestic demand buttressed by high incomes in export agriculture, and increased public investment and current expendi- tures. Long-term Development Prospects and Constraints xi. Long-term growth prospects, will depend on the extent to which Cameroon succeeds in expanding its productive capacity by making use of its vast natural resources, particularly agricultural, forestry, and mineral resources. A concomitant improvement in productivity also calls for develop- ing human resouriesand maintaining physical assets. Moreover, there is a need for institution building and improved policymaking. For example, based on existing production (of forestry enterprises) and transport capacity, log output is estimated to reach 2.5 million tons by the mid-1980s. Expansion beyond this level particularly depends on forestry sector development policy. As oil production substantially exceeds the likely medium-term prospect of 3 million tons a year, non-financial constraints,particularly relating to manpower and institutional capacity,are expected to set an upper limit to the rate of growth of an effective investment program. The Government is under- taking an assessment of long-term development prospects to the year 2000. The resulting analysis of the resource requirements, financial and human, to meet various Government development objectives in the long term, will provide the basis for the setting of priorities and the phasing of investment projects.  - vi - Mobilization of Domestic Savings, 1979-86 xii. During 1976-78, the rapid growth in output, and in real income helped by considerable gains from the terms of trade--equivalent to 3.9 percent of GDP, made possible an improvement in the mobilization of domestic savings despite an increase in the relative importance of consumption com- pared with the Third Plan period. Gross domestic savings (GDS) thus reached 20 percent of GDP and financed almost 87 percent of total investment, including increase in stocks, which was itself relatively much greater than investment during the Third Plan (23 percent of GDP compared with 20 percent). During the remaining three years of the Fourth Plan, 1978-81, the same level of domestic savings mobilization can be expected; GDS at about 20 percent of GDP. In fact this implies an improvement in domestic savings mobilization, because the gains from the terms of trade (Base period 1974/75-1976/77) for the three years are projected to be less than those for the first two years of the Fourth Plan,equivalent to 1.7 percent of GDP. Cocoa and particularly coffee prices during 1978-81 are projected to fall below the peaks in 1977/78 while other projected prices are stable through 1981, or those expected to rise will be for goods which will still account for small shares of total exports (oil, rubber, processed wood, aluminum). However, a higher investment rate of about 24 percent--as large undertakings in the Fourth Plan are completed--will mean a greater need for foreign financing,even with the improved savings rate. xiii. Some improvement in the domestic savings effort to maintain GDS at 20 percent of GDP will continue to be needed during the Fifth Plan (1981/82- 1985/86) as the gains from the terms of trade will decrease further with projected export and import quantities and prices. This will mean that a high investment rate of 23 percent can be sustained with the same extent of domestic savings mobilization as during 1976-78 (GDS accounting for 87 percent of investment). This will also mean the same substantial need for foreign savings. External Borrowing and Debt Service Requirement xiv. Net disbursements on public medium- and long-term loans during the first two years of the Fourth Plan amounted to about US$240 million a year. For the three years, net inflows from disbursements on public external loans are projected at US$380 million a year and for the Fifth Plan at US$530 million a year. Such levels of disbursements will require new public loan commitments of about US$470 million a year during 1978-81 as compared with the average of US$400 million during the first two years of the Fourth Plan, and new commitments of US$610 million a year during the Fifth Plan. The share of private financing in new commitments will remain substantial, 36-38 percent of total commitments, after allowing for the likely availability of financing from official sources, although not as high as during 1976-78 (45 percent). At the same time, as Cameroon's income increases, the terms of financing from official sources on average will also harden. Consequently, debt service payments will continue to build up rapidly. During 1978-86, Cameroon's export prospects and world market prices are reasonably favorable. Therefore, the debt service ratio is projected to reach 12 percent in 1981 and 16 percent in 1986. These export prospects depend to a substantial extent on an optimistic outlook for  - vii - timber production and exports. At the same time, the projection for the oil sector could be on the conservative side,with crude output reaching a stable level of 3 million tons in 1981,when the petroleum refinery is expected to produce an export surplus of oil products of about 600,000 tons. PRELIMINARY BASIC NEEDS REVIEW xv. This report contains a first step towards a basic needs review, aiming at an assessment of the data base for basic needs policies in nutri- tion, health services and education; water supply and shelter were left out due to lack of information. Nutrition xvi. Concerning nutrition, overall calory availability appears to be adequate in Cameroon, although regional imbalances exist. The quality of the diet is less satisfactory; data indicate deficits in protein, calcium, vitamins Bl, B2 and C; these deficits are more pronounced in the urban population. Malnutrition is prevalent for up to 47 percent of children under five, a particularly affected group. The weakness of institutions directly addressing nutrition reflects government policies to treat nutri- tional problems as inherent features of the overall level of development. However, the First National Seminar on Nutrition, held in April 1979, indicat- ed increasing government concern about nutrition. Health xvii. Although the health status of Cameroonians appears to have improved over the last few years, infant mortality is still high and so are morbidity rates. Water-borne diseases in particular show a high incidence. The modern health services system does not efficiently respond to needs, due to orienta- tion, staffing and funding problems. The Government emphasizes preventive medicine in the Fourth Development Plan. Actual implementation, however, concentrates on curative medical facilities. In 1979, the Government was reviewing its approach to rural health services; as the outcome of this study, a policy reorientation towards a more affordable solution and an approach focussing on basic needs in health services might be feasible. Before shaping such a strategy, however, a broadening of the information basis is advisable in two respects. On a sample survey basis, information should be gathered concerning the impact on the population of health services provided. This would allow the evaluation of the effectiveness of existing health services and provide the basis for an assessment of the importance of existing medical care as compared to other factors influencing health. The other subject which would be useful to study for a correct assessment are the traditional healers and midwives. They provide the largest part of health services, and they could play an important part in a low-cost health service system.  - viii - Education xviii. The delivery of primary education is improving, although internal efficiency is low and curricula are poorly adapted to the environment, although curriculum reform is underway on an experimental scale. Neither formal nor non-formal vocational training exists in forms to reach large parts of the youth; this is true also for adult literacy campaigns. So far, the Government has given low priority to non-formal education, which might be the most adequate means to cover basic needs in education. In addition, the question how to integrate non-formal education in production-oriented projects should be studied. This also might be the most important feature for Govern- ment policy towards non-formal education, given public resource constraints. The small-scale approach of rural promotion, as carried out by the Ministry of Social Affairs, should be closely monitored during implementation. It might prove a viable approach if linked to agricultural production and/or rural infrastructure projects or in connection with an integrated rural development project. The link between non-formal education and overall rural development seems to be crucial for the success of both of them.  PART I RECENT DEVELOPMENTS Population and Employment 1. The first population census in Cameroon, in April 1976, established the total population at 7.66 million. Population growth appears to have accelerated from a rate of about 2 percent per annum during 1960-75 to an estimated current rate of 2.56. This resulted from a much greater decrease during the period 1960-1975 in the crude death rate to an estimated 20.4 per 1,000, compared with a smaller decrease in the estimated crude birth rate to 45.0 in 1976. The urban population has grown rapidly since 1960, at - estimated rates exceeding 6 percent per annum. In 1976, 28.5 percent of the population lived in urban areas. The populations of the largest city, the port of Douala - 458,476, and of the second largest city, the capital city of Yaounde - 317,706, accounted for respectively 6 and 4 percent of the total population. The average population density was 16.5 per square kilo- meter in 1976. However, population density by province varied widely from 3.4 inhabitants per square kilometer in the East Province to 74.5 in the West Province. The national average family size was 5.2 in 1976. The urban and rural averages were about the same, 5.1 and 5.2; but the average by province varied considerably, from 4.6 in the Littoral Province to 7.0 in the North-West Province. The Cameroonian population was quite young in 1976, the result of continuous high fertility. In 1976, 43.4 percent of the population was under the age of 15. The narrowing of the population pyramid with advancing age brackets. reflects still high mortality. As a result of the rural-urban migration, the rural population had an important deficit of males in the 15-54 age group while the urban population had a surplus in the same age group. 2. In 1976, 52.9 percent of the population was of working age, from 15-64. The national average participation rate was 66.3 percent. The male and female participation rates were respectively 84.6 and 50.0 percent. The substantial difference between the participation rates of the rural (70.2 percent) and urban population (56.7 percent) was due essentially to the considerable agricultural activities by women in Cameroon. The female par- ticipation rate in urban areas was only 31.4 percent. In 1976, 79.4 percent of the active population was in agriculture, livestock, fishing and forestry; 6.7 percent was in the secondary sector--manufacturing and mining (4.9 percent of the total active population), and construction (1.8 percent), and 13.9 in the tertiary sector--services (8.0 of the total active population), trade (4.2 percent), transport and communications (1.4 percent) and banking and insurance (0.3 percent). The self-employed represented the majority of employment, 64.2 percent, followed by unpaid family workers, 20.0 percent. The shares of self-employed in total employment in rural and urban areas were, respectively, 69.6 and 44.6 percent, and of unpaid family workers 23.9 and 5.8 percent. Nationally, only 14.1 percent of employment were salaried employees. This share in urban areas was 44.7 percent compared with 7.7 percent in rural areas. In 1976, the unemployment rate was 6.1 percent. The urban unemployment rate was much higher, 12.2 percent, than the rural rate, 4.3 percent. The majority of the unemployed, 72.6 percent, were those seeking work for the first time. The unemployed were also mostly young people. The unemployed of the age group 15-24 were 55.5 percent of the total, 61.0 in urban areas and 50.0 in rural areas.  -2- Trends in Output and Resource Use (1970/71-1977/78). 3. The revised official national accounts 1/ show an acceleration in GDP growth in real terms (Table 1) from 4.7 percent a year during the Third Plan (1971/72-1975/76) to 8.3 percent during the first two years of the Fourth Plan (1976/77-1977/78). Recovery in agricultural and manufacturing growth and in the supporting tertiary activities as well as greatly expanded investment activities led to the high output growth during 1976-78. Table 1: STRUCTURE AND GROWTH OF GDP, 1965/66-1977/78k' Structure (percent) Growth rate (percent p.a.)-/ Three year average Second Plan Third Plan Fourth Plan l965/66 1970171 1975/76 1977/78 1965/66-1970/71 1970/71-1975176 1975/76-1977/78 Agriculture 35.4 36.4 33.8 32.0 4.9 3.4 4.9 Secondary sectors 14.6 15.2 15.9 16.0 5.6 4.5 8.6 of which: Manufacturing and mining 8.2 10.3 10.3 10.0 10.3 3.7 5.6 Construction 5.0 3.7 4.6 5.0 -3.3 7.8 16.3 Other Sectors 50.0 48.4 50.3 51.9 3.7 5.6 10.4 of which: Trade 20.2 18.2 16.2 16.0 2.2 2.0 7.9 Transport and communications 8.2 8.4 8.1 7.8 5.5 3.8 6.0 Public administration 6.3 6.9 7.2 7.3 6.6 5.8 7.7 Other services 11.2 10.6 13.9 14.6 2.6 12.2 16.5 GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 4.4 4.7 8.3 1/ Value added at 1974/75-1976/77 market prices. 2/ All the growth rates in this table are obtained by using least squares fitting. April 30, 1980. 1/ National income statistics prepared by Cameroon are at current prices. Constant price estimates for agriculture, manufacturing, electricity, transportation and trade use production indices were developed by Bank staff; those for mining and other services use price indices; those for public administration use an index of public sector employment; and those for construction use an index of salary and material costs in the con- struction industry. See Statistical Appendix Table 2.2.  4. Crop production accounted for about three quarters of total agricul- tural output; livestock and fishing, and forestry, about 15 and 10 percent respectively (Table 2). The resumption of an agricultural growth rate of 4.9 percent a year during 1976-78 (a rate achieved during the Second Plan) was due to high growth in crop agriculture and livestock and fishing. Forestry grew at less than 2 percent a year after growth rates exceeding 5 percent during the preceding two Plan periods. Food crops (accounting for 60 percent of crop production) particularly tubers, plantain bananas and grains, were the main contributors to the growth of crop agriculture, exceeding 5 percent a year during 1976-78. 1/ However, export crops did achieve an average growth of nearly 3 percent per year, after stagnation-during the Third Plan, as farmers responded to higher cocoa and cottee producer prices and as output from large-scale plantation agriculture (oil palm, rubber and sugarcane) increased- with the implementation of projects. Table 2: AGRICULTURE: STRUCTURE AND GROWTH. 1965/66-1977/78/1 Structure (percent) Growth rate (percent p.a.) Fourth Plan Three year average (Percent) Second Plan Third Plan (First two years) 1965/66 1970/71 1975/76 1965/66-1970/71 1970/71-1975/76 1975/76-1977/78 Food crops 44.9 41.8 44.2 3.5 4.6 7.0 Grains (11.0) ( 8.8) ( 8.0) (-1.1) ( .9) (4.3) Other (33.9) (33.0) (36.2) ( 5.0) (5.6) (7.6) Export crops 19.9 21.6 18.1 6.1 .1 2.9 Other croDs 12.2 11.1 10.8 3.1 2.6 .9 CROP PRODUCTION 77.0 74.5 73.1 4.1 3.1 5.2 LIVESTOCK AND FISHING 13.4 15.8 16.5 8.6 3.5 5.6 FORESTRY 9.6 9.7 10.4 5.3 5.5 1.8 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 4.9 3.4 4.9 1/ Agricultural production index 1975/75-1976/77 = 100 Source: Bank Staff Estimates. 1/ Estimates of food crop production are subject to the highest uncertainty in Cameroonian agricultural statistics.  - 4 - 5. During 1976-78, the secondary sectors increased at 7.6 percent a year as compared with 4.5 percent during the Third Plan, as a result of more rapid growth in manufacturing and mining but particularly in construc- tion. Very rapid growth in industries processing agricultural products, as agricultural production grew at a faster rate, in beverages and tobacco, and in certain intermediate goods industries, such as wood and wood products and cement, contributed to high overall growth in manufacturing despite relatively slower growth in some industries (e.g. textiles), near stagnation in others (e.g. shoes) and actual decline in some industries (e.g. aluminum). Mining grew rapidly during 1976-78 because of oil exploration and development activities. The construction industry grew by 16 percent a year during 1975/76-1977/78 compared with nearly 8 percent during the Third Plan as large investments were undertaken for the implementation of the Fourth Plan. The rapid expansion in income, the high level of economic activities, and the increasing monetization of the economy led to substantial growth in other sectors, particularly trade, transport and other services. 6. During 1976-78, domestically available resources in real terms increased by about 10 percent a year compared with 3.4 percent during the Third Plan (Table 3) as a result of GDP growth, particularly substantial increases in imports, and an average decrease in exports because the drop of 15 percent in 1976/77 was followed by a recovery of only 10 percent. Very rapid real increases in expenditure on GDP and net imports occurred in both consumption and investment, compared with slow growth during the Third Plan. Increasing at the rate of nearly 11 percent during 1976-78 due to very high income growth, private consumption as a share of GDP was 73.3 percent in 1977/78 compared with the three year averages of 74.5, 74.1 and 71.1 in 1965/66, 1970/71, and 1975/76 respectively (the ending years of the First, Second and Third Plans). Gross fixed capital formation reached a record high of 22 percent of GDP in 1977/78.  -5- Table 3: RESOURCES AND USES. 1965/66-1977/78/1 Structure (percent) Growth rate (percent p.a.) Three year average Second Plan Third Plan Fourth Plan (First two years) 1965166 1970/71 1975/76 1977/78 1965/66-1970/71 1970/71-1975/76 1975/76-1977/78 GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 4.4 4.7 8.3 Imports of goods and NFS 28.6 32.1 27.8 30.4 7.4 -.9 15.7 Exports of goods and NFS 27.4 28.2 25.6 22.5 5.6 4.3 -3.3 Domestically available resources 101.2 103.9 102.2 107.9 5.1 3.4 9.9 Consumption 84.9 84.3 82.3 83.3 4.5 3.5 9.2 (Private) ( 74.5) ( 74.1) ( 71.1) ( 73.3) (4.7) ( 2.8) (10.8) (Public) ( 10.4) ( 10.2) ( 11.2) ( 10.0) (3.2) ( 8.3) ( -.4) Investment 16.3 19.6 19.9 24.6 (n.a4 1.3 31.8 (Gross fixed capital formation) ( 16.3) ( 17.4) ( 17.7) ( 22.4) (3.8) ( 1.2) (27.8) (Increase in stocks) ( -- ) ( 2.2) ( 2.2) ( 2.2) ( --) (-11.1) (125.6) 1/ Expenditure on GDP at 1974/75-1976/77 prices. Source: Bank Staff Estimates.  -6- Investment Structure and Trends 7. Total gross domestic fixed capital formation during the Third Plan is estimated at CFAF 521 billion in 1974/75-1976/77 prices (Table 4), of which 54 percent was financed by or through the Government and other public entities, and 46 percent privately. During the first two years of the Fourth Plan, total GFCF was CFAF 310 billion at 1975-77 prices, of which 51 percent was public and 49 private. Private investment grew relatively faster than public investment during these two years, mainly due to large investments in oil exploration and development (27 percent of total private investment). In real terms, annual average private investment during 1977/78-1978/79 was 157 percent of the annual average private investment during the Third Plan. The corresponding ratios for public investment and total GFCF were 141 and 149 percent. Table 4: GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, 1971/72-1977/78 (In billions of CFAF at 1974/75-1976/77 prices) Third Plan Fourth Plan, First 2 years (1971/72-1975/76) (1976/77-1977/78) Percent of Percent of annual Percent Annual Third Plan average of last 2 Total Percent Total of total average annual average years of Third Plan Public Investment 281.5 54.1 118.9 51.3 79.4 141.1 133.9 Private Investment 239.2 45.9 150.6 48.7 75.3 157.4 152.6 Total GFCF 520.7 100.0 309.5 100.0 154.7 148.6 142.4 Sources: National Accounts for GFCF; Reports on Plan Execution for public investment; private investment is residual; conversion to constant 1974/75-1976/77 prices by using the GFCF implicit price deflator developed by Bank staff. Structure of Public Investment Expenditure 8. During the first two years of the Fourth Plan, the share of public investment financed by domestic resource mobilization was 41 percent compared with 57 percent during the Third Plan (Table 5). The Central Government accounted for (corresponding figures for the Third Plan are shown in paren- theses) 17 percent of total public investment (33 percent) and the public enterprises, 21 percent (17 percent). Forty seven percent (33 percent) of Central Government resources were devoted to transport and communication  -7- Table 5: PUBLIC INVESTMENT BY SECTOR AND SOURCE OF FINANCING FIRST TWO YEARS OF THE FOURTH PLAN, 1976/77-1977/78 (In percent) Foreign Central Government Project Total Extra Public Stabilisation Local Loans and Public Budget Budget Enterprise Funds Government Grants Sector Directly Productive Sectors Rural 8.5 1.9 29.7 100.0 - 21.1 22.5 Energy and Refining .2 - 8.4 - - 4.9 4.7 Industry and Services 1/ 2.8 - 33.4 - 100.0 40.6 31.5 Subtotal 11.5 1.9 71.5 100.0 100.0 66.7 58.7 (Share of source of financing in subtotal) (2.8) ( .1) (25.5 (4.3) ( .2) (67.1) (100.0) Transport and Communications Infrastructure 51.7 26.1 16.9 - 29.4 29.2 (Share of source of financing in subtotal) (25.7) ( 2.6) (12.1) ( - ) ( - ) (59.6) (100.0) Social Infrastructure Education, Health, Welfare 12.3 - - - - 1.1 2.4 Urban Development and Housing 3.6 62.5 11.6 - - .9 5.3 Other 19.1 9.5 - - - 1.7 4.1 Subtotal 35.0 71.9 11.6 - - 3.8 11.9 (Share of source of financing in subtotal) (42.8) (17.6) (20.4) ( - ) ( - ) (19.2) (100.0) Studies 1.8 - - .2 GRAND TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 (Share of source of financing in grand total) (14.5) ( 2.9) (20.9) ( 2.5) ( .1) (59.0) (100.0) Memorandum Item: Amount in CFAF billion 26.3 5.3 37.9 4.6 .2 107.0 181.3 1/ Includes trade Source: Ministere de l'Economie et du Plan, Direction de la Planification.  -8- infrastructure. Forty one percent (50 percent) were for social and admini- strative infrastructure. Investment by the public enterprises in the productive sectors accounted for 72 percent (32 percent) of their resources allocated to investment purposes. Two thirds of foreign finance (36 percent) went to the productive sectors, and 29 percent (51 percent) to the transport sector. Within the productive sectors, foreign finance accounted for 67 percent (44 percent) of total investment. The share of foreign finance in total investment in the transport sector was 60 percent (59 percent), and 19 percent (20 percent) in social infrastructure. Investment and Saving 9. During the Third Plan, total gross domestic capital formation including increase in stocks exceeded gross domestic savings by 19 percent for the period as a whole, although in 1973/74-a year of high export commodity prices--saving was higher than investment (Table 6). During the first two years of the Fourth Plan, gross domestic savings increased substan- tially, due mainly to high export commodity prices, but investment also expanded greatly and was slightly larger than saving. On average, gross domestic savings were 16 percent of GDP during the Third Plan, 20 percent during the first two years of the Fourth Plan, and 80 and 88 percent of total capital formation during these respective periods. After taking into account net payments of wages and salaries for foreign residents in Cameroon, net interest and dividends on foreign borrowing and capital, and net current transfers, gross national saving represented 14 percent of GDP and 74 percent of total capital formation during the Third Plan, and 19 percent of GDP and 83 percent of capital formation during the first two years of the Fourth Plan. After provision for amortization of foreign medium-and long-term loans, net national investment accounted for 68 and 77 percent of total investment during the two periods (or 13 and 18 percent of GDP). Thus one quarter of total investment was financed by foreign resources during the first two years of the Fourth Plan, when substantial public savings were mobilized through the Stabilization Funds, as compared wth about one third of total investment financed by foreign resources during the Third Plan.  -9- Table 6: INVESTMENT AND SAVING. 1971/72-1977/78 (Billions of CFAF and Percent in Current Prices) Third Plan (1971/72-1975/76) Fourth Plan Total 2 years Percent of Percent of Percent of Percent of CFAF billion GDP Investment 1976/77 1977/78 CFAF billion GDP Investment Public investment 223.9 9.0 47.6 87.0 94.3 181.3 10.5 46.0 Private investment 188.3 7.6 40.1 66.3 106.3 172.6 10.0 43.8 Gross fixed capital formation 412.2 16.6 87.7 153.3 200.6 353.9 20.5 89.8 Increase in stocks 57.9 2.3 12.3 18.3 21.8 40.1 2.3 10.2 Total investment 470.1 18.9 100.0 171.6 222.4 394.0 22.8 100.0 Public savings 145.0 5.8 30.8 69.3 111.8 181.1 10.5 46.0 Private savings 251.4 10.1 53.5 83.2 80.5 163.7 9.5 41.6 Gross domestic savings 396.4 15.9 84.3 152.5 192.3 344.8 20.0 87.6 Less: Net factor services -67.5 -2.7 -14.3 -16.3 -19.0 -35.3 -2.0 -9.0 Plus: Net current transfers 16.5 .7 3.5 8.8 8.9 17.7 1.0 4.5 Gross national savings 345.4 13.9 73.5 145.0 182.2 327.2 19.0 83.1 Less: Amortization of private and -public medium- and long-term loans -25.5 -1.0 - 5.4 - 9.9 -13.8 -23.7 - 1.4 -6.0 Available for investment 319.9 12.9 68.1 135.1 168.4 303.5 17.6 77.0 Disbursements of grants and public and medium- and long-term loans 111.2 4.5 23.6 68.9 80.5 149.4 8.7 37.9 Other long-term capital, net 40.3 1.6 8.6 7.1 15.5 22.6 1.3 5.7 Use of other resources,net -19.8 - - -42.4 -29.9 -72.3 - - Decrease in reserves (- increase) 18.5 - - 2.9 -12.1 - 9.2 - -  - 10 - Balance of Payments 10. The cumulative current account deficit during the first three years of the Fourth Plan (1976/77-1978/79) amounted to an estimated CFAF 76.3 billion (or 2.7 percent of GDP) compared with CFAF 81.3 billion (or 3.3 percent of GDP) for the Third Plan period (Table 7). The current account deficit during 1976-79,as during the Third Plan,was largely financed by net disbursements of public medium- and long-term loans. However, these latter amounts,totalling CFAF 174.5 billion for 1976-79 (CFAF 79.0 billion during the Third Plan) according to data recorded in the Bank's Debtor Reporting System, far exceeded the cumulative current account deficit of CFAF 76.3 billion and either were offset by substantial outflows elsewhere in the capital account or the results of important underestimation in the current account or both. With a balance of payments surplus of CFAF 12.1 billion in 1977/78, net drawdown of international reserves during 1976-79 was only CFAF 1.2 billion,compared with CFAF 18.5 billion during the Third Plan. Gross international reserves in September 1979 of CFAF 24.5 billion were equal to five weeks of imports during 1979. 11. With both exports and imports defined on a f.o.b. basis, the small trade surplus of CFAF 2.2 billion in 1976/77 increased to a surplus of CFAF 22.6 billion in 1977/78. In 1978/79 imports increased faster than exports, and the trade surplus was reduced to CFAF 3.5 billion. For the Third Plan as a whole the trade accounts registered a surplus of CFAF 10.1 billion. During 1976-79 and the Third Plan, deficits in non-factor services accounted for respectively 94 and 73 percent of the current account deficit. Deficits in factor service income were equivalent to about 82 percent of the current account deficit during both periods. Investment income payments during 1976-79 were at about the same level as during the last three years of the Third Plan. However, interest on the public debt, increasing at a high rate since 1975/76,accounted for 33 percent of total factor service payments during 1976-79 compared with 15 percent during the Third Plan. The relatively larger deficit in factor service income during the Third Plan was offset by relatively larger net transfers and the cumulative trade surplus.  - 11 - Table 7: SUMMARY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (In billions of CFA Francs) Actual Estimated 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 Exports, f.o.b. 61.7 69.5 108.3 113.7 124.5 170.2 237.1 215.6 Imports, f.o.b. -70.3 -69.3 -83.4 -118.8 -125.8 -167.6 -214.5 -228.8 Trade balance -8.6 .2 24.9 -5.1 -1.3 2.6 22.6 -13.2 Exports, NFS 19.2 21.2 24.3 25.2 32.3 32.4 48.6 38.5 Imports, NFS -28.1 -32.4 -35.0 -38.0 -47.6 -51.2 -70.9 -71.5 Non-factor services (Net) -8.9 -11.2 -10.7 -12.8 -15.3 -18.8 -22.8 -33.0 Factor services, Receipts 1.4 1.1 1.2 3.4 4.2 4.3 6.7 5.4 of which: workers remittances (.1) (.2) (.6) (2.2) (2.0) (2.6) (3.6) (3.2) Factor services, Payments -10.1 -10.7 -16.6 -19.6 -21.8 -20.6 -26.5 -28.0 workers remittances (-6.9) (-7.5) (-10.1) (-9.8) (-9.4) (-9.6) (-10.5) (-10.7) Direct investment income (-1.6) (-1.4) (-4.1) (-7.3) (-8.9) (-4.8) (-7.4) (-6.1) Interest on the public debt (-1.8) (-1.9) (-2.4) (-2.5) (-3.5) (-6.2) (-8.6) (-11.2) Net factor service income -8.7 -9.6 -15.4 -16.2 -17.6 -16.3 -19.8 -22.6 Capital transfers 2.7 2.7 3.2 4.4 5.5 5.7 2.7 3.7 Net current transfers 2.2 2.9 1.5 2.8 7.1 7.7 5.6 9.1 Net transfers 4.9 5.6 4.7 7.2 12.6 13.4 8.3 13.7 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -21.3 -15.0 3.5 -26.9 -21.6 -19.1 -11.1 -55.1 Private direct investment (Net) 2.6 -1.8 3.5 5.4 5.7 1.5 4.0 10.0 Public medium and long-term loans (Net) -/ 10.5 15.0 8.8 13.1 31.6 58.7 65.2 50.6 Official (8.1) (12.9) (8.8) (8.3) (15.4) (25.9) (32.0) (34.7) Private (2.4) (2.1) (-- ) (4.8) (16.2) (32.8) (33.2) (15.9) Other capital 2.9 5.5 .2 -3.8 -3.9 -1.2 -1.3 22.1 Private medium and long-term loans (Net) (3.2) (6.6) (.3) (.9) (1.9) (1.3) (7.3) ( 8.0) Short-term capital ( .5) (-.1) (-2.4) (-1.2) (1.1) (-5.8) (-- ) (-- ) Monetary capital (-.3) (.2) (-.8) (.3) (-1.2) (6.7) (-7.5) (16.1) Capital n.e.i. (-.5) (-1.2) (3.1) (-3.8) (-5.7) (-3.9) (-1.1) (-2.0 Net errors and omissions -7.9 -4.0 -9.0 1.9 -14.5 -42.8 -44.7 -40.3 Allocation of SDRs 1.0 -- -- -- -- -- -- 1.3 OVERALL BALANCE (-deficit) -12.2 -.3 7.0 -10.3 -2.7 -2.9 12.1 -10.4 1/ From World Bank Debtor Reporting System. Source: Data provided by the Cameroonian Authorities and Bank staff estimates.  - 12 - 12. Estimated net private direct investment averaged about CFAF 5 billion in 1977/78 and 1978/79' as during 1974/75-1975/76. Net disbursements on public medium- and long-term loans, the predominant source of financing of the current account deficits since the early 1970s, became even more important during 1976-79, reaching CFAF 174.5 billion compared with CFAF 79.0 billion during the Third Plan. Net capital outflows in the capital account other than net private direct investment, net disbursements on public medium- and long-term loans and change in reserves during the Third Plan were CFAF 32.6 billion or CFAF 6.5 billion a year. This suggests underestimation of net payments in the current account, including that of imports of goods (e.g. of equipment for investment projects), non-factor as well as factor services (e.g. workers remittances). During 1976/77-1978/79, similarly derived net capital outflows reached CFAF 37 billion a year. The extent of underestimation in the current account suggested by this analysis has thus become much more important in recent years. External Public Debt 13. Cameroon's external medium- and long-term public debt outstanding including undisbursed increased at 37 percent a year during 1974-78 and reached US$1,934 million at end-1978, compared with US$579 million at end-1974 (Table 8). This substantial debt accumulation is due to a rapid build up in new loan commitments particularly from private creditors during 1976-78. Total private credits outstanding, including undisbursed--mostly from financial institutions--reached US$686 million at end-1978, or 35 percent of total public debt outstanding, from US$90 million at end-1974 or 16 percent of the total. Debt outstanding from official bilateral sources, which still accounted for the largest share of the total, 38 percent, was US$731 million at end-1978 compared with US$273 million, or 47 percent of the total, at end-1974. Multilateral loans outstanding increased at the lowest rate and were US$517 million at end-1978 compared with US$215 million at end-1974.  - 13 - Table 8: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT 1' (Millions of US dollars) Growth Rates (percent) 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1977-78 1974-78 Total Outstanding Incl. Undisb. (year end) 578.9 704.4 1,024.7 1,391.4 1,934.1 40.3 37.0 Private Creditors 90.5 114.5 333.2 461.0 685.8 43.7 73.1 Suppliers 9.3 12.2 113.9 128.0 140.0 9.3 117.6 Private Banks 81.2 102.2 219.3 333.0 548.8 56.2 65.8 Multilateral 215.0 242.9 318.8 410.1 517.3 24.5 25.3 o/w IBRD 96.4 96.9 130.7 159.7 199.2 24.7 21.5 IDA 70.0 91.2 116.2 136.1 166.9 22.6 23.8 Official Bilateral 273.4 347.0 372.6 520.3 731.0 49.7 28.4 o/w France 96.1 134.3 123.7 196.9 260.0 56.7 31.2 Total Disbursed and Outstanding (year end) 274.2 372.1 531.3 860.5 1,168.8 32.8 45.6 Private Creditors 32.8 74.7 164.7 327.7 435.8 26.7 95.8 Suppliers 7.5 9.1 16.5 126.3 139.2 10.2 133.3 Private Banks 25.2 65.5 148.1 201.3 296.6 36.4 85.1 Multilateral 98.6 141.2 166.6 220.4 314.0 40.6 31.5 o/w IBRD 28.7 49.7 57.5 71.6 102.4 43.0 33.8 IDA 34.1 49.9 67.8 93.4 107.6 15.2 33.9 Official Bilateral 142.8 156.2 200.0 312.4 419.0 34.1 32.9 o/w France 75.7 81.6 97.6 130.5 167.9 28.6 22.9 Flows Commitments 144.3 165.8 355.0 346.4 497.7 50.6 39.2 Disbursements 43.6 126.2 195.5 341.2 287.4 -15.7 61.1 Amortization 14.1 20.8 20.3 24.7 57.6 133.6 34.9 Net Flow 29.5 105.4 175.2 298.5 248.0 -27.4 68.3 Private Creditors 5.2 44.6 99.0 147.6 76.3 -62.6 87.0 Multilateral 13.0 44.3 25.0 50.2 91.8 75.2 48.4 Official Bilateral 11.3 16.5 51.2 100.8 79.9 -20.7 77.2 Interest Payments 11.2 15.1 19.6 28.0 46.2 64.6 41.2 Total Debt Service 25.3 35.9 39.9 52.7 101.8 96.9 37.8 Private Creditors 8.1 9.9 12.3 23.9 49.9 117.1 58.3 Multilateral 5.7 7.7 9.5 10.0 24.9 149.0 37.9 Official Bilateral 11.5 18.3 18.1 18.8 27.0 43.6 18.9 Net Transfer 18.3 90.3 155.6 270.5 203.9 -36.3 78.1 1/ Includes-all debts with an original maturity of over one year.  - 14 - 14. Conditions and terms of foreign borrowing hardened considerably in recent years. New borrowing in 1978 was obtained at an interest rate of 6.9 percent, with 21.7 years maturity and 5.7 years grace (terms weighted by commitment amounts) (Table 9). The grant element of 1978 commitments declined to 24 percent of total face value, from 44 percent in 1975 and 51 percent during 1970-73. The hardening of the terms of foreign borrowing reflects the declining share of concessional loans or conversely the increasing share of private financing and borrowing from official sources on non-concessional terms,from 36 percent of total new commitments in 1970-73 to 58 percent in 1974-77 to 67 percent in 1978. External borrowing from private sources in recent years, particularly in 1976 and 1978, was for manufacturing investments,which were mostly for a few large projects-- the SONARA petroleum refinery, the CELLUCAM paper pulp project and the ALUCAM aluminum smelter plant. Borrowing for the manufacturing sector amounted to US$184 million and US$213 million,or 50 and 41 percent of total foreign borrowing in 1976 and 1978. In 1977, external borrowing mainly for the Song Loulou hydroelectricity project and mostly from official sources,amounted to US$143 million or 41 percent of the total. Substantial foreign loans continued to be contracted for transport infrastructure and equipment,amounting to US$87, 97, and 177 million in 1976-78 but accounting for an average of only 28 percent of total commitments compared with more than one half of the total in 1974-75 (US$83 million each year). External borrowing for agriculture, forestry and fishing, although increasing substan- tially to US$59 million from the average of US$23 million during 1974-77 still accounted for about 10 percent of total new commitments.  - 15 - Table 9: AVERAGE TERMS AND STRUCTURE OF PUBLIC DEBT COMMITMENTS, 1970-78 1970-73 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 Average Terms 1/ Interest rate (percent) 3.2 5.9 4.1 6.4 5.6 6.9 Maturity (years) 24.5 15.8 24.8 16.7 17.7 21.7 Grace (years) 8.1 4.1 6.6 4.5 4.9 5.7 Grant element (percent) 50.9 23.6 44.0 22.9 28.1 24.0 Structure (percent) 2/ Concessional 3/ 63.5 25.8 74.8 20.9 48.4 33.4 Non-concessional 4/ 27.0 28.7 3.7 11.4 18.2 31.0 Private financing 5/ 9.5 45.3 21.3 67.5 33.3 35.3 1/ Weighted by commitment amounts. 2/ Percent of total new commitments. 3/ Includes all multilateral or official bilateral loans with a grant element of at least 25 percent. 4/ Includes all multilateral or official bilateral loans with a grant element of less than 25 percent. 5/ All loans from private sources. Source: World Bank's Debtor Reporting System.  - 16 - PART II ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL PROSPECTS 15. The basic factors underlying Cameroon's development prospects in the medium- and long-term remain essentially as discussed in Part II of our economic report of 1978. The price outlook for most of Cameroon's major export commodities through the 1980s--except for cocoa--(according to the latest projections by the World Bank's Commodities Division) and the contri- bution of new oil resources are such that the country will be subject to fewer financial constraints as compared with the analysis of our 1978 report. Part II of this report will concentrate on this changed financial outlook. Growth in the Medium Term 16. The outlook for agricultural and industrial growth in the first half of the 1980s is favorable. Cocoa output is expected to be maintained at 110,000 tons or above; arabica coffee to recover and exceed its previous production peak (of 32,300 tons) well before the mid-1980s and Robusta coffee to continue to expand. Most other commercial and food crops, livestock and fishing, and commercial forestry production are projected to increase at least 4 percent a year. Crops, such as rubber, which are being developed by specific investment efforts, will grow at much faster rates. Overall agricultural growth during 1978-86 should average 4-4.5 percent a year. Production from existing and expanded manufacturing facilities (particularly food, beverage, construction materials, aluminum and products), new indus- trial projects, and oil refining and the oil fields is projected to contri- bute to manufacturing and mining growth of 7.5 percent a year. Substantial growth in construction and services is expected to accompany the high level of production and investment activities. Overall GDP growth is projected to be 5-6 percent a year during 1978-86. This growth prospect is well supported by international demand as reflected in the price outlook for most of Cameroon' s export commodities and domestic demand buttressed by high incomes in export agriculture, increased public investment and current expenditures. Long-term Development Prospects and Constraints 17. Long-term growth prospects will depend on the extent to which Cameroon suceeds in expanding its productive capacity by making use of its vast natural resources, particularly agricultural, forestry, and mineral resources other than petroleum. A concomitant improvement in productivity also calls for developing human resources and maintaining physical assets. Moreover, there is a need for institution building and improved policy- making. For example, based on existing production (of forestry enterprises)  -17- and transport capacity, log output is estimated to reach 2.5 million tons by the mid-1980s. Expansion beyond this level particularly depends on forestry sector development policy. If oil production substantially exceeds earlier estimates of 3 million tons a year, non-financial constraints, particularly relating to manpower and institutional capacity,are expected to set an upper limit to the rate of growth of an effective investment program. The Government is undertaking an assessment of long-term development prospects to the year 2000. The resulting analysis of the resource requirements, financial and human, to meet various Government development objectives in the long term will provide the basis for the setting of priorities and the phasing of investment projects. Mobilization of Domestic Savings, 1979-86 18. During 1976-78, the rapid growth in outputand in real income, helped by considerable gains from the terms of trade--equivalent to 3.9 percent of GDP (Base period 1974/75 - 1976/77) made possible an improvement in the mobilization of domestic savings despite an increase in the relative importance of consumption compared with the Third Plan period (Table 10). Gross domestic savings (GDS) thus reached 20 percent of GDP and financed almost 87 percent of total investment, including increase in stocks, which was itself relatively much greater than investment during the Third Plan (23 percent of GDP compared with 20 percent). During the remaining three years of the Fourth Plan, 1978-81, the same extent of domestic saving mobilization can be expected; GDS at about 20 percent of GDP. In fact this will entail an improvement in domestic saving mobilization because the gains from the terms of trade (Base period 1974/75-1976/77) for the three years are projected to be less than those for the first two years of the Fourth Plan, equivalent to 1.7 percent of GDP. Cocoa and particularly coffee prices during 1978-81 are either projected to fall below the peaks in 1977/78 while other projected prices are stable through 1981 or those increasing are for goods still accounting for small shares of total exports (oil, rubber, processed wood, aluminum). However, a higher investme,nt rate of about 24 percent--as large investments in the Fourth Plan are completed--will mean a greater need for foreign financing.  -18- Table 10: GROSS DOMESTIC SAVINGS. 1979-86 /1 (Percent of GDP) Third Plan ..Fourth Plan Fifth Plan 1971/72-1975/76 1976/77-1977/78 1978/79-1980/81 Total 1981/82-1985/86 GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Gains from terms of trade - 1.7 + 3.9 + 1.7 + 2.5 4 1.1 GDY 98.3 103.9 101.7 102.5 101.1 less Consumption -80.9 -83.9 -82.1 -82.8 -81.1 Gross Domestic Savings (GDS) 17.4 20.0 19.6 19.7 20.0 Investment 19.6 23.0 24.5 24.0 22.9 Memorandum Item: GDS (Percent of Investment) 88.6 86.7 79.9 82.3 87.2 1/ Values in 1974/75-1976/77 prices. Source: Bank staff estimates.  - 19 - 19. A continuation of some improvement in the domestic saving effort to maintain GDS at 20 percent of GDP during the Fifth Plan (1981/82-1985/86) as the gains from the terms of trade will decrease further with projected export and import quantities and prices, will mean that a high investment rate of 23 percent can be sustained with the same extent of domestic saving mobilization as during 1976-78 (GDS accounting for 87 percent of investment). This will also mean the same substantial need for foreign savings. The monetary counterpart of mobilizing foreign savings to fill the gap between domestic savings and investment is of course the financing of the import surplus,or more broadly the current account deficit,by net capital inflows, particularly foreign borrowing,in the case of Cameroon. External Borrowing and Debt Service Requirements 20. Net disbursements on public medium- and long-term loans during the first two years of the Fourth Plan amounted to about US$240 million a year. For the remaining three years, net inflows from disbursements on public external loans are projected at US$380 million a year and for the Fifth Plan at US$530 million a year. Such levels of disbursements will require new public loan commitments of about US$470 million a year during 1978-8Lsas compared with the average of US$400 million during the first two years of the Fourth Plan and new commitments of US$610 million a year during the Fifth Plan. The share of private financing in new comitments will remain substantial, 36-38 percent of total commitments, after likely availability of financing from official sources, although not as high as during 1976-78 (45 percent)> At the same time, as Cameroon's income increases, the terms of financing from official sources on average will also harden. Consequently, debt service payments (Table 11) will continue to build up rapidly. During 1978-86, Cameroon's export prospects and world market prices are reasonably favorable. Therefore the debt service ratio is projected to reach 12 percent in 1981 and 16 percent in 1986. These export prospects depend to a substantial extent on a considerably optimistic outlook for timber production and exports0 At the same time, the projection for the oil sector, with crude output reaching a stable level of 3 million tons in 1981, when the petroleum refinery is expected to produce an export surplus of oil products of about 600,000 tons, could be on the conservative side.  - 20 - Table 11: EXTERNAL DEBT SERVICE,1976-86 (Annual averages in millions of US dollars) Fourth Plan Fifth Plan 1976-78 1/ 1978-81 2/ 1981-86 2/ Amortization 34.2 110.6 212.3 Interest payments 31.3 83.7 155.6 Total debt service 65.5 194.3 367.9 Debt service ratio (end-period) (%) 3/ 7.5 12.5 15.7 1/ Actual. 2/ Projected. 3/ Ratio of total debt service to exports of goods and factor and non-factor services.  - 21 - PART III PRELIMINARY BASIC NEEDS REVIEW Introduction 21. This section is mainly exploratory, as the Bank has not fully worked out a basic needs strategy and the data base for Cameroon is weak. This first step in a basic needs review aims at improving our knowledge about the situation in Cameroon using available information as to what extent and how basic needs of the poorer strata of the population currently are being satisfied, the institutions involved and Government policy in this respect. 22. Definition of Basic Needs. The term "basic needs" is used here as defined by the Bank, i.e. concentrating on "core" basic needs, all of which are related to education and health,as investment in human capital. Basic needs thus comprise minimum food requirements in terms of quantity and quality, access to safe drinking water, basic preventive and curative health services, minimum shelter, and functional literacy. Due to restrictions in data available on rural water supply and shelter, the paper concentrates on nutrition, health services and education. 23. Target Groups. A basic needs strategy would aim at the direct abolition of absolute poverty. A study of basic needs concerns sectors in which the Bank traditionally has not been involved in Cameroon or has worked in a different orientation; this applies to a large extent to Government services as well. The available data therefore focus on standard Government services and measure inputs rather than results. This,together with the lack of stratified data, complicates the identification of priority target groups. One of the main purposes of this preliminary basic needs review therefore is to assess the data situation and to identify additional information require- ments for future work in these sectors. 24. The latest Bank estimates of poverty levels in Cameroon refer to the years 1977/78. The relative poverty level (one third of per capita personal income of CFAF 97,570 = US$409) is at CFAF 32,523 (US$136) annual per capita income. The absolute rural poverty level was estimated to be CFAF 25,113 (US$105), with 40 percent of the rural population, i.e. 2.2 million having incomes below the poverty threshold. The absolute poverty level for urban population is CFAF 56,656 (US$237); in a conservative estimate, 15 percent of the urban population, i.e. 378,900, are below the poverty level. However, the data base for these estimates probably led to too low an esti- mate of the numbers of the poor.  - 22 - Nutrition 25. Food Consumption. Nutrition in Cameroon has been assessed as satisfactory in terms of calory availability. This is confirmed by the data from several nutritional surveys (Table 12) and by the small quantity of food staples imported. A more detailed analysis, however, reveals regional shortages, indicated also by price increases for basic staples, especially in urban centers and plantation areas. The quality of the diet, though quite varied between regions, seems less satisfactory; there is a protein deficit, a very low coverage of calcium requirements as well as deficits in vitamins Bl, B2 and C. The nutritional status of the urban population seems to be worse than that of the rural population. The information basis for this assessment is somewhat dated--the surveys were taken between 1963 and 1966-- and not representative, either within the regions covered or for the whole country. However, these studies appear to reflect the situation quite well, if compar- ed to survey results on malnutrition obtained in 1978. Table 12: COVERAGE OF NUTRITIONAL REQUIREMENTS IN VARIOUS REGIONS Cocoa region in Adamaoua the South Central North (excl. Nagoundere) Province Ngaoundere con- % con- % con- % con- % sumption coverage sumption coverage sumption coverage sumption coverage Calories 2,170 106 1,947 80 2,198 100 1,766 78 Proteins (g) 68.5 113 62.2 104 52.5 86 49.6 80 - of which animal proteins (g) 9.4 - 28.9 - 12.8 - 22.6 - Calcium (mg) 2,006 204 367 38 551 58 284 29 Iron (mg) 29.4 257 22.6 196 16.5 145 18.3 161 Vitamin A (U.I.) 2,465 56 3,254 72 15,008 331 3,656 82 Vitamin B1 (mg) 1.85 177 0.93 83 1.20 106 0.76 65 Vitamin B2 (mg) 0.75 52 0.80 54 0.69 46 0.52 34 Niacine (mg) 18.0 172 12.1 108 18.5 164 12.4 107 Vitamin C (mg) 35.0 50 46.1 66 217.7 308 40.5 57 Source: Nutritional surveys undertaken by the Department of Statistics/ Ministry of Planning and SEDES between 1963 and 1966.  - 23 - 26. Malnutrition. The national survey on maalnutrition, executed in 1978, is based on stratified samples totalling 5,700 children in the age- group 3 to 59 months and considered to be representative. The results of the survey (Table 13) are confirmed by several regional studies done between 1965 and 1978. They indicate that fer some rural areas under-and malnutrition affect 35 to 47 percent of children under five; however, from the data it is not evident whether this reflects the overall situation or the status for the specific season of the year. The national survey states that about 22 percent of the children under five years, i.e. 250,000 in absolute figures, suffer from malnutrition. Incidence is found especially in the age-group 6 to 24 months, and low income groups; though regional differences are not apparent, rural populations are affected in a higher degree. These reports indicate few severe cases of protein-calorie deficiencies (Kwashiorkor)--one percent of the children surveyed--the protein deficit stated in consumption surveys, however, is confirmed here. Table 13: NATIONAL SURVEY ON MALNUTRITION (1978) Percentages of age-group 3 to 59 months Chronically Protein- under- calorie nourished malnourished (90% weight/age) (80% weight/age) Total 22.1 21.1 Rural 22.4 23.0 Yaounde/Douala 11.8 10.8 Other towns 13.4 13.6 Urban high income group 4.2 3.6 27. Institutions. The administrative unit responsible for nutritional education and research is the Nutritional Unit in the Department of Preventive Medicine and Rural Hygiene, Mlinistry of Health. Established in 1972/73, the Unit is staffed with eight professionals in its two offices, one for Surveys and Dietetics, the other for Research and Training. 28. Nutritional research is mainly undertaken by the Nutritional Unit of the Institute for Medical Research and Study of MIedical Plants (IMPM), an ONAREST branch. This office is staffed with 11 researchers and carries out a research program which focuses on the nutritional status of the most vulnera- ble groups and the nutritive value of local food crops.  - 24 - 29. Government Policy. One indicator of an increasing Government concern about nutrition in Cameroon is the First National Seminar on Nutri- tion which was organized by the ministry of Economic Affairs and Planning in April 1979. Subsequently,the National Committee on Food and Nutrition was established as a permanent institution. 30. In the past, nutritional problems were perceived to be primarily an inherent feature of the overall level of development. Malnutrition was related to subsistence agriculture,which does not allow a diversification of diet, as well as to marketing and transport problems. Consequently, the current Government program, aiming at improving nutrition, concentrates on agriculture: increase of food crop production, implementation of the "Meat Plan", food crop storage by the Cereals Office; directly related to nutrition are the above mentioned research activities by ONAREST and a planned house- hold budget and consumption survey to be executed by the Department of Statistics/MINEP. Health 31. Health Status. Information on the health status of the Came- roonians is available only in aggregate form, which does not distinguish between rural and urban population. According to the results of the 1976 population census, the crude birth rate is 45 per thousand and the crude death rate 20.4 per thousand. The decline of the latter figure results in an increasing population growth rate--2.46 percent in 1976, up from 2.1 percent in 1970. Life expectancy at birth has increased and in 1976 was 43.2 years for men and 45.6 years for women. These figures, indicating an improvement of the health status of the population, contrast somewhat with the estimated infant mortality rate,which is a high 157 per thousand. 32. Information concerning the prevalence of diseases is based on annual reports of public health facilities; the most recent data refer to 1975 and are extrapolated from a basis of 21 percent of the hospitals report- ing. The overall morbidity-rate is a high 52 percent; the morbidity rates of the most widespread diseases, shown in Table 14, are comparable to those of many other developing countries. Under and malnutrition contribute to the high incidence of diseases. The high rate of waterborne diseases reflects poor sanitary conditions; it is estimated that only 40 percent of the popula- tion have access to safe drinking water. The most vulnerable groups seem to be infants and children under five years. Table 14: INCIDENCE OF DISEASES (1975) Number of Disease New Cases MIorbidity % Malaria 691,079 91.8 Intestinal diseases 577,272 78.1 Respiratory diseases 354,628 47.1 Skin diseases 272,672 36.2 Rhumatism 212,132 28.2  - 25 - 33. Health Services. The modern sector infrastructure for curative and preventive medicine comprises the following institutions: 118 hospitals 78 dispensaries 41 departmental centers of preventive medicine 796 health centers (elementary, secondary and communal centers, combining curative and preventive medicine functions) 40 centers of maternal/infant care 40 leper hospitals The ratio of hospital beds to inhabitants is 1:331,which is con- sidered to be low; however, the occupancy rate is only 54 percent. The medical staff is insufficient: one physician per 33,800 inhabitants; one nursing person per 1,685 inhabitants. These figures cover large regional imbalances, ranging from a population per physician of 8,100 in the Littoral to 49,000 in the North. 34. These ratios confirm estimates by Ministry of Health officials that about 75 percent of incidences of diseases are treated outside the modern medical institutions by traditional healers. 35. Institutions. Although the majority of modern health institutions are managed and financed by the Government, private institutions provide a considerable part of health services; e.g. 38 percent of hospital beds, 28 percent of health centers and 25 percent of maternal/infant care centers are run by private, mostly church institutions. The number of traditional healers is not known; the Fourth Development Plan includes a small research project (not yet started) to gather information on their number and location in view of assessing their possible inclusion in future medical coverage. 36. Cost and Finance. The health related expenditures reported for modern institutions underestimate actual expenditures, due to the relatively important presence of nongovernmental organizations and the lack of informa- tion on communally financed health services. The Ministry of Health esti- mates that Government expenditures for health services in 1977/78 amounted to CFAF 1,000 per capita, of which 11 percent for medication. While current expenditures of modern health facilities are mainly borne by the Government, about 85 percent of investment costs, especially for the construction of hospitals, have been financed by external assistance. The share of the Ministry of Health in the 1978/79 Government budget was maintained at 4.5 percent. Only 8 percent of its CFAF 7,383 million budget allocation for 1978/79 was for investment. 37. Government Policy. The Government objectives for the health sector, as stated in the Fourth Development Plan, stress regionally balanced health services, i.e. increase of medical infrastructure in rural areas, and give priority to preventive medicine focusing on women and children as target groups. Investment expenditures for health account for one percent of Fourth  - 26 - Plan investment projections; of the total CFAF 8.8 billion planned, the major part is earmarked for construction of curative medical facilities, leaving CFAF 2.5 billion for preventive medicine. The Plan execution in the health sector--7 percent of total projected investment was achieved in 1976/77 and 1977/78--concentrates on construction of hospitals and upgrading of secondary health centers to hospitals; it appears that preventive medicine projects were abandoned because of lack of thorough preparation. 38. This seems to apply also to the Demonstration of Public Health Action (DASP), an experiment started about 10 years ago to introduce low-cost basic medical services and sanitary education. It covers 10 percent of Cameroon's population by a system of itinerant medical agents in four regions. Though an evaluation was carried out in 1976, which concentrated on investment, training and financing aspects, no information is available concerning the impact of this approach on the health status of the population. 39. Conclusions. The impressionistic information available and a preliminary study do not allow a substantiated assessment of the health sector in Cameroon. However, there seems to be evidence that the existing public health service system is not very efficient and lacks resources to fulfill its tasks. Although the country tried to implement a first step towards a better health service delivery system, the overall result is not satisfactory. Consequently, the Ministry of Health is reviewing its approach of providing rural health services; as the outcome of this study, a policy reorientation towards a more affordable solution and an approach focussing on basic needs in health services might be feasible. 40. Before shaping such a strategy, however, a broadening of the information basis is advisable in two respects. On a sample survey basis, information should be gathered concerning the impact on the population of health services provided. This would allow the evaluation of the effective- ness of existing health services and provide the basis for an assessment of the importance of existing medical care as compared to other factors influenc- ing health. The other subject which is completely left out in data collected by the Ministry of Health are the traditional healers and midwives. They provide the largest part of health services and some information on this sector is required for a correct assessment of the situation. They could play an important part in a low-cost health service system. Education 41. Status of Formal Education. According to the 1976 population census, the literacy rate for the population over 15 years was 37.3 percent in Cameroon. A primary school enrollment rate of 60 percent of the relevant age-group in 1975--the most recent figure available from the Ministry of Education--however, indicates a rapid increase in literacy. Of the primary school leavers, 90 percent did not find a job in the modern sector; so the question becomes critical to what extent general formal education prepares for life in a rural context or in the urban informal sector.  - 27 - 42. Basic Educational Needs and the Formal General Educational System. 1/ The overall coverage of the official primary education system is quite impressive considering the 60 percent enrollment rate and US$32 recur- rent costs per student year. But there are imbalances in the regional distribution of educational facilities and the high enrollment rates coincide with overcrowded facilities and a high pupil:teacher ratio. Not surpris- ingly, the internal efficiency of the primary educational system is low, as is the quality of the education: the curricula--there are still anglophone and francophone educational systems--are poorly adapted to the environment. 43. In an admittedly difficult institutional setting, the Government, since 1968, has attempted to harmonize and to reform primary education. On an experimental basis, a reformed curriculum will be introduced in a total of 42 primary schools, i.e. one per department, in the school year 1979/80. 44. Vocational Training. Vocational training in the formal school system takes place at the post-primary or secondary level, organized by five ministries in 117 institutions, totaling 8,154 students in 1974/75. The major share of vocational training is dispensed by the Ministry of Education: 57 percent of its students receiving vocational training are enrolled in the "Rural Artisans Sections" and another 21 percent in the "Home Economics Sections". Entrance requirements and the limited enrollment capacity virtual- ly preclude 99 percent of the relevant age-group from vocational training. 45. Non-formal Education. General non-formal education and rudimentary vocational training outside the official school system are provided by the Ministry of Social Affairs, created in 1975, and the Ministry of Youth and Sports. Activities carried out by non-governmental organizations could not be taken into account for this review. 46. The Ministry of Social Affairs has small-scale programs in rural and urban areas. It is involved in the urban community development activi- ties in the Nylon squatters area of Douala. In 1977 it started a 5-year program of rural promotion/mobilization activities. Annually about 50 social workers are being trained or follow refresher courses; they then work with a village level approach, training local leaders and organizing self-help groups. The approach seems promising, though the crucial implementation in the villages has just started. 47. The Ministry of Youth and Sports maintains various informal train- ing institutions for mostly urban youth, but budget restrictions limit its activities. In four urban youth centers a 2-year handicraft and clerk training is offered; an unknown number of urban promotional centers on which no statistics exist, provide what can be described as casual activities. In the rural context, the Ministry maintains agents in 20 departments who supervise rural youth centers, but their activities are severely limited by lack of funds. The least financial constraints seem to be experienced by the 1/ This paragraph relies on information contained in the Bank's Education Sector Memorandum on Cameroon, published December 13, 1978.  - 28 - "Service Civique National de Participation au Developpement", which recently became an Office, independent from the Ministry. It provides annual training courses to prepare young people for resettlement in rural areas. In two years, about 1,000 youths have been trained, 90 percent of whom seem to have been settled in agriculture, apparently with high Government subsidies in the form of land, tools; and installation allowances. 48. Adult literacy campaigns are also under the aegis of the Ministry of Youth. From about 7,500 literacy centers totaling 160,000 students in the 1960s, a constant decline in these activities has been reported by the Ministry; the 1978 level of activities was 275 centers with 304 teachers and 9,550 students, 43 percent of whom are concentrated in two western provinces. Direct reasons for the decline in adult literacy classes seem to be the non-remuneration of teachers, and a lack of textbooks. In a broader view, the current adult literacy concept is rightly questioned by Government officials: the literacy approach is extremely traditional, no reform towards functional literacy was attempted so far, and there is no link with other development activities. 49. Cost and Finance. As the activities concerning non-formal educa- tion are varied and located in different Ministries, cost figures for spe- cific training activities outside the Ministry of Education could not be obtained. The overall budget allocations are mentioned as a substitute and in order to indicate the relative importance attached to these training activities. While the recurrent budget of the Ministry of Education in 1978/79 received CFAF 17,296 million, the highest amount allocated to any ministry, the budget allocations for the Ministries of Youth and Social Affairs amounted to CFAF 1,524 and 574 million, respectively. Excluding the construction of sport stadiums, the investment budgets were modest as well: CFAF 90 million for the Ministry of Youth and CFAF 50 million for Social Affairs, as compared to CFAF 1,786 million for the Ministry of Education. 50. Government Policy. The low priority the Government has attached so far to non-formal education is reflected in the Fourth Development Plan (Table 15). Table 15: INVESTMENT FOR NON-FORMAL EDUCATION IN THE FOURTH DEVELOPMENT PLAN 1976-81 Planned Investment Executed Ministry (Mn. CFAF) Mn. CFAF % Education 33,021.0 3,818.6 11 - of which post-primary and non-formal (1,710.0) (249.1) (14.6) Youth and Sports 13,985.0 481.2 3 - of which Youth (1,891.0) (32.8) (1.7) Social Affairs 1,973.5 54.4 2.7  - 29 - Investment concentrated on one or two projects in each of the Ministries, and implementation has been slow. The Ministry of Education planned to allocate a modest 3.3 percent of its total investment to post-primary education; only 5 percent of these CFAF 1,110 million have been used in 1976/77 and 1977/78. The highest implementation rate is to be found at the "Service Civique National de Participation au Developpement"--32 percent of CFAF 600 million. The implementation of the 5-year investment budget for the Youth section of the Ministry of Youth and Sports of CFAF 1,891 million so far consists of the purchase of a cinema-bus. Implementation by the Ministry of Social Affairs is also limited to one project--construction of paraprimary "Centres Socio-Menagers." 51. Conclusion. This first assessment of the situation concerning basic educational needs in Cameroon is necessarily incomplete, due to time and data restrictions; not all Government institutions have been covered, and the non-governmental organizations which are likely to provide a large part of non-formal education have not been taken into account. However, on the simplified premise that basic educational needs in general terms can easily be defined for Cameroon as being functional literacy and limited vocational training, mainly for agricultural or artisanal employment, it can be concluded even from the existing information that these needs are far from being satisfied by the existing institutions. This applies in quantitative as well as in qualitative terms. 52. As a first step towards a more comprehensive approach to non-formal education, information gathering along two lines would be required. One concerns the feasibility of a large-scale approach to non-formal education which is a long-run exercise. The other part of information gathering would be selective and focus on the question how to integrate non-formal education in productive-type projects. This also might be the most important feature for Government policy towards non-formal education given public resource constraints. The small-scale approach of rural promotion, as carried out by the Ministry of Social Affairs, should be closely monitored during implementa- tion. It might prove a viable approach if linked to agricultural production and/or rural infrastruture projects or in connection with an integrated rural development project. The link between non-formal education and overall rural development seems to be crucial for the success of both of them.   29a - STATISTICAL APPENDIX 1/ LIST OF TABLES Page No. 1. POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT POPULATION ET EMPLOI 1.1 Basic Population Statistics, 1976 Statistiques Demographiques, 1976 ....................... 30 1.2 Agricultural Population, 1972/73 Population Agricole, 1972/73 ............................ 31 1.3 Modern Sector Employment by Branch of Economic Activity, 1971, 1974 Effectifs des Travailleurs du Secteur Moderne selon la Branche d'activite, 1971, 1974 .... ............. 33 1.4 Modern Sector Employment by Province, 1971, 1974 Effectifs des Travailleurs du Secteur Moderne selon les Provinces, 1971, 1974 ................. .............. 34 1.5 Public Service Employment, 1969/70-1977/78 Effectifs dans la Fonction Publique, 1969/70-1977/78 .... 35 2. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS COMPTES NATIONAUX 2.1 Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Origin at Current Market Prices, 1964/65-1977/78 Produit Interieur Brut par Branche d'Activite aux Prix Courants du Marche, 1964/65-1977/78 ...... . ............... 36 2.la Percentage Share of GDP by Industrial Origin at Current Market Prices, 1964/65-1977/78 Repartition du PIB en Pourcentage par Branche d'Activite aux Prix Courants du Marche, 1964/65-1977/78 ............. 38 2.2 Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Origin at 1974/75-1976/77 Market Prices, 1964/65-1977/78 Produit Interieur Brut par Branche d'Activite aux Prix du Marche de 1974/75-1976/77, 1964/65-1977/78 ...... 40 2.2a Percentage Distribution of GDP by Industrial Origin at 1974/75-1976/77 Market Prices, 1964/65-1977/78 Repartition du PIB en Pourcentage par Branche d'Activite aux Prix du Marche de 1974/75-1976/77, 1964/65-1977/78 .. 42 1/ In the tables of Appendix, Fiscal Year is used, for example, 1965 refers to FY1964/65. Exceptions are either self-evident or explicitly noted.  - 29b - Page No. 2.2b GDP by Industrial Origin at 1974/75-1976/77 Market Prices, 1966/67-1977/78 annual growth rates PIB par Branche d'Activite aux Prix du Marche de 1974/75- 1976/77, 1966/67-1977/78 .................................. 44 2.2c GDP by Industrial Origin at 1974/75-1976/77 Market Prices, 1965/66-1977/78 values and annual average growth rate PIB par Branche d'Activite aux Prix du Marche de 1974/75- 1976/77, 1965/66-1977/78 .................................. 46 2.3 Implicit Price Deflators for GDP by Industrial Origin 1974/75-1976/77 Indices d'Ajustement Implicite des Prix pour le Produit Interieur Brut par Branche d'Activite, 1974175-1976/77 .... 47 2.4 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product at Current Market Prices, 1964/65-1977/78 Emplois du Produit Interieur Brut aux Prix Courants du Marche, 1964/65-1977/78 ....................... 49 2.4a Percentage Distribution of Expenditures on GDP at Current Market Prices, 1964/65-1977/78 Repartition en Pourcentage de l'Emploi du PIB aux Prix Courants du Marche, 1964/65-1977/78 .................... 51 2.5 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product at 1974/75-1976/77 Market Prices, 1964/65-1977/78 Emplois du Produit Interieur Brut aux Prix du Marche de 1974/75-1976/77, 1964/65-1977/78 .. ............. ..... 53 2.5a Percentage Distribution of Expenditures on GDP at 1974/75-1976/77 Market Prices Repartition en Pourcentage de l'Emploi du PIB aux Prix de 1974/75/-1976/77 ................. ....................... 55 2.5b Expenditure on GDP at 1974/75-1976/77 Market Prices, 1973/74-1977/78 (Growth Rate) Emplois du Produit Interieur Brut aux Prix de 1974/75-1976/77, 1973/74-1977/78 (Taux de Croissance) ........................ 57 2.5c Expenditure on GDP at 1974/75-1976/77 Market Prices, 1965/66-1977/78 (Compound Growth Rate) Emplois du Produit Interieur Brut aux Prix de 1974/75-1976/77, 1965/66-1977/78 (Taux de Croissance Compose) ................. 59 2.6 Implicit Price Deflators for Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, 1964/65-1977/78 Indices d'Ajustement Implicite des Prix pour les Emplois du Produit Interieur Brut, 1964/65-1977/78 .................... 60  - 29c - Page No. 3. FOREIGN TRADE AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS COMMERCE EXTERIEUR ET BALANCE DES PAIEMENTS 3.1 Balance of Payments - Current Account, 1971/72-1976/77 Balance des Paiements - Compte Courant, 1971/72-1976/77..... 62 3.2 Balance of Payments - Capital Account, 1971/72-1975/76 Balance des Paiements - Compte de Capital, 1971/72-1975/76 . 63 3.3 Volume of Exports by Type of Product, 1964/65-1977/78 Volume des Exportations par Type de Produit, 1964/65/1977/78 ............................................ 64 3.4 Value of Exports by Type of Product, 1969/70-1977/78 Valeur des Exportations par Type de Produit, 1969/70-1977/78 ................................................... 66 3.4a Percentage Distribution of Value of Exports by Type of Product, 1969/70-1977/78 Repartiition en Pourcentage de la Valeur des Exportations par Type de Produit, 1969/70-1977/78 ....................... 67 3.4b Value of Exports by Type of Product, 1970/71-1977/78 (Growth Rate) Valeur des Exportations par Type de Produit, 1970/71-1977/78 (Taux de Croissance) ...................................... . . . .... . ..... . 68 3.4c Value of Exports by Type of Product, 1970/71-1977/78 (Compound Growth Rate) Valeur des Exportations par Type de Produit, 1970/71-1977/78 (Taux de Croissance Compose) ................ ................. 69 3.5 Volume Index of Imports by Type of Product, 1965/66-1977/78 Volume des Importations par Type de Produit, 1965/66-1977/78 .......................................................... 70- 3.6 Value of Imports by Type of Product, 1964/65-1977/78 Valeur des Importations par Type de Produit, 1964/65- 1977/78 ........... .. 0.0..... 0-00000.............................0.. 72 3.6a Percentage Distribution of Value of Imports by Type of Product, 1965/66-1977/78 Repartition en Pourcentage de la Valeur des Importations par Type de Produit, 1965/66-1977/78 .. .................... 74 3.6b Value of Imports by Type of Products, 1968/69-1977/78 (Growth Rate) Valeur des Importations par Type de Produit, 1968/69-1977/78 (Taux de Croissance)- .--.-- ......... ....... . . . .. 76 3.6c Value of Imports by Type of Product, 1965/66-1977/78 (Compound Growth Rate) Valeur des Importations par Type de Produit, 1965/66-1977/78 (Taux de Croissance Compose>.... ...... ............ 77  - 29d - Page No. 3.7 Index of Unit Values of Exports by Type of Product, 1965/66-1977/78 Indice des Valeurs Unitaires des Exportations par Type de Produit, 1965/66-1977/78 .......................... 78 3.8 Price Index of Imports by Type of Product, 1965/66-1977/78 Indice des Prix des Importations par Type de Produit, 1965/66-1977/78 ..... .......................................... 80 4. EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT DETTE PUBLIQUE EXTERIEURE 4.1 External Public Debt Outstanding Including Undisbursed as of December 31, 1976 Encours de la Dette Publique Exterieure y Compris les Montants Non-verses au 31 decembre 1976 .... ........... 82 4.2 Service Payments, Commitments and Outstanding Amounts of External Public Debt. Projections Based on Debt Outstanding Including and Disbursed as of December 31, 1976 Service de la Dette, Engagements, Versements et Encours de la Dette Publique Exterieure. Projections Basees sur 1'Encours de la Dette Publique y Compris les Montants Non-verses au 31 decembre 1976 ...... ...................... 83 5. PUBLIC FINANCE FINANCES PUBLIQUES 5.1 Treasury Operations, 1970/71-1977/78 Operations du Tresor, 1970/71-1977/78 . .................... 84 5.2 Budgetary Revenue, 1970/71-1977/78 Recettes Budgetaires, 1970/71-1977/78 . .................... 86 5.2a Percentage Distribution of Budgetary Revenue, 1970/71- 1977/78 Repartition en Pourcentage des Recettes Budgetaires, 1970/71-1977/78 ..................................... .... .............. 87 5.3 Economic Classification of Budgetary Expenditure, 1970/71-1977/78 Classification Economique des Depenses Budgetaires, 1970/71-1977/78 ........... ............................... 88 5.3a Percentage Distribution of Economic Classification of Budgetary Expenditure, 1970/71-1977/78 Repartition en Pourcentage de la Classification Economique des Depenses Budgetaires, 1970/71-1977/78 .... ............ 89  - 29e - Page No. 5.4 Functional Classification of Budgetary Expenditure, 1970/71-1977/78 Classification Fonctionnelle des Depenses Budgetaires, 1970/71-1977/78 .......................................... 90 5.4a Percentage Distribution of Functional Classification of Budgetary Expenditure, 1970/71-1977/78 Repartition en Pourcentage de la Classification Fonctionnelle des Depenses Budgetaires, 1970/71-1977/78 .. 91 5.5 Revenue and Expenditure of Local Governments, 1974/75- 1977/78 Recettes et Depenses des Collectivites Locales, 1974/75- 1977/78 ............................................................ 92 5.6 Receipts and-Outlays of the National Social Security Fund, 1971/72-1977178 Recettes et Depenses de la Caisse Nationale de Prevoyance Sociale, 1971/72-1977/78 ................................. 93 6. PRICE STATISTICS STATISTIQUES DES PRIX 6.1 Index of Consumer Prices in Yaounde, 1970/71-1976/77 (Moderate Income Cameroonian Families) Indice des Prix a la Consommation a Yaounde, 1970/71- 1976/77 (Familles Camerounaises a Revenu Moyen) ........... 94 6.2 Index of Consumer Prices in Douala, 1970/71-1976/77 Indice des Prix a la Consommation a Douala, 1970/71- 1976/77 ............................................................... 96 7. AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS STATISTIQUES AGRICOLES 7.1 Major Food Crops - Cultivated area by Province, 1972/73 Principales Cultures Vivrieres - Superficie par Province, 1972/73 .................................................. 98 7.2 Major Industrial Crops - Cultivated Area by Province, 1972/73 Principales Cultures Industrielles - Superficie par Province, 1972/73 ........................................ 99 7.3 Industrial Crops - Cultivated Area and Density, 1972/73 Cultures Industrielles - Superficie et Densite, 1972/73 .. 100 7.4 Distribution of Farms by Type of Ownership, 1972/73 Repartition des Exploitations selon le Mode Faire Valoir, 1972/73 ........ .......................................... 101  - 29f - Page No. 7.5 Agricultural Production, 1964/65-1977/78 Production Agricole, 1964/65-1977/78 ..................... 102 7.6 Value of Agricultural Production at Constant 1974/75-1976/77 Prices, 1964/65-1977/78 Valeur de la Production Agricole aux Prix Constants de 1974/75-1976/77, 1964/65-1977/76 .. ............... 104 7.6a Value of Agricultural Production at Constant 1974/75- 1976/77 Prices (Percentage Share), 1964/65-1977/78 Valeur de la Production Agricole aux Prix Constants de 1974/75-1976/77 (Repartition en Pourcentage), 1964/65-1977/78 .......... 106 7.6b Value of Agricultural Production at Constant 1974/75- 1976/77 Prices (Percentage Changes), 1966/67-1977/78 Valeur de la Production Agricole aux Prix Constants de 1974/75-1976/77 (Changements en Pourcentage), 1966/67- 1977/78 ................................................ 108 7.6c Value of Agricultural Production at Constant 1974/75- 1976/77 Prices (Compound Growth Rate), 1965/66-1977/78 Valeur de la Production Agricole aux Prix Constants de 1974/75-1976/77 (Taux de Croissance Compose), 1965/66-1977/78 . .... 110 7.7 Producer Prices, 1970/71-1979/80 Prix au Producteur, 1970/71-1979/80 ........................ 111 8. PLANNING PLA4S QUINQUENNAUX 8.1 Fourth Plan: Sectoral Composition of Investment, 1976/77-1980/81 Quatrieme Plan: Repartition Sectorielle des Investissements, 1976/77-1980/81 ......................... 112 8.2 Third Plan: Sectoral Composition of Investment, 1971/72-1975/76 Troisieme Plan: Structure des Investissements, 1971/72-1975/76 . .. ............. 113 8.3 Public Investment by Sector and Source of Financing, First Two Years of the Fourth Plan (1976/77-1977/78) Investissements Publics par Secteur et Source de Financement, Deux Premieres Annees du Quatrieme Plan (1976/77-1977/78) ................ 114  - 30 - Table 1.1 BASIC POPULATION STATISTICS, 1976 1/ Tableau 1.1 STATISTIQUES DEMOGRAPHIQUES, 1976 1/ Rural and Urban Population Population rurale et urbaine Rural Population 5,479,004 71.5 % Population rurale Urban Population 2,184,242 28.5 Population urbaine Yaounde ( 313,706) ( 4.1) Yaound6 Douala ( 458,426) ( 6.o) Douala Other urban areas (1,412,110 (I8.4) Autres agglom6rations TOTAL 7,663,246 100.0 % TOTAL Population by age group Population par groupe d'agc a - 14 3,326,615 43.4 % 0 - 14 15 - 64 4,056,922 ' 52.9 15 - 64 65 and over 279,709 3.7 65 et plus TOTAL 7,663,246 100.0 % TOTAL Population by sex Population par sexe Male 3,754,991 49.0 % Masculin Female 3,908,255 51.0 F6minin TOTAL 7,663,246 100.0 % TOTAL 1/ April 1976 population census adjusted to take into account an omission rate of 6.9 percent. Recensement d'avril 1976 redresse en tenant compte du taux d'omission de 6.9 pour cent. Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs and Planning Ministere de l'Economie et du Plan February 27, 1980   - 31 - Page 1 of 2 pages Table 1.2 - AGRICULTtTRAL POPULATION, 1972/73 Tableau 1.2 - POPULATION AGRICOLE, 1972/73 Province and Number of Agri- Agricultural Agricultural Cultivated Departements Department cultural House- Population Labor Force Area et Provinces holds Nombre de Me- Population Actifs agri- Superficie nages agricoles familiale coles des cultiv6e des exploi- exploitations totale tations agricoles (ha) agricoles Northern Province du Province 312,003 1,401,508 808,097 511,483 Nord Adamaoua 36,696 171,689 93,077 44,011 Adamaoua Benoue 60,779 260,085 150,975 100,927 Benou6 Diamare 81,750 366,445 219,239 177,569 Diamar6 Logone and Lagone et Chari 22,020 88,486 50,854 34,838 Chari Margui-Wandala 71,865 339,954 195,150 114,787 Margui-Wandala Mayo Danai 38,893 174,849 98,796 39,351 Mayo Danai Eastern Province de Province 56,269 279,319 155,366 102,149 l'Est Haut Nyong 23,079 114,702 64,841 49,797 Haut Nyong Lom and Djerem 11,935 57,818 34,323 16,289 Lom et Djerem Kadei 12,835 63,519 33,679 169924 Kadei Loumba Ngoko 8,420 43,280 22,523 19,138 Loumba Ngoko South Central Province du Province 189,108 983,400 513,722 381,446 Centre Sud Mefou 27,435 125,944 69,640 36,319 Mefou Mbam 25,366 139,888 64,977 47,433 Mbam Ntem 21,710 112,562 62,571 76,958 Ntem Dja and Lobo 16,195 82,543 44,147 47,540 Dja et Lobo Nyong and Soo 11,585 62,726 31,362 17,440 Nyong et Soo Nyong and Foumou 17,070 70,840 41,034 35,363 Nyong et Foumou Haute Sanaga 10,360 53,033 33,573 19,658 Haute Sanaga Kribi 10,995 56,067 28,167 28,906 Kribi Lekie 33,895 201,037 97,718 49,986 Leki6 Nyong and Kelle 14,497 78,760 40,533 21,841 Nyong et Kelle Littoral Province 50,260 299,111 125,691 74,735 Province Littoral Mungo 27,205 169,594 71,406 52,129 Mungo Sanaga Maritime 13,108 82,349 32,317 15,514 Sanaga Maritime Nkam 8,212 39,874 18,791 16,649 Nkam Wouri 1,735 7,294 3,177 443 Wouri  - 32 - Page 2 of 2 pages Province and Number of Agri- Agricultural Agricultuial Cultivated Departements Department cultural House- Population Labor Force Area et Provinces hold - Western Province 129,395 876,392 358,993 161,447 Province Ouest Menoua 26,430 185,083 75,651 28,986 Menoua Mifi 29,545 216,340 89,215 36,102 Mifi Bamboutos 20,800 153,676 63,146 29,223 Bamboutos Nde 11,550 67,723 27,598 11,975 Nde Haut Nkam 15,500 99,321 39,403 16,672 Haut Nkam Bamoun 25,570 154,249 63,980 38,484 Bamoun North-West Province Province 110,242 709,144 314,636 134,418 Nord Ouest Mezam 36,141 227,205 93,331 51,349 Mezam Momo 15,432 106,728 49,420 10,823 Momo Denga Mentung 18,610 126,782 53,938 19,779 Denga Mentung Mentohum 16,766 135,132 64,295 25,182 Mentohum Bui 23,293 113,297 53,652 27,284 Bui South-West Province Province 78,618 457,253 200,693 114,880 Sud Ouest Fako 21,307 103,689 43,209 13,230 Fako Meme 22,458 122,394 54,085 40,587 Meme Ndiam 12,855 68,430 30,841 15,488 Ndiam Mamzu 21,998 162,740 72,558 45,574 Mamzu Source: Agricultural Census 1972/73 Recensement Agricole 1972/73 February 27, 1980  Table 1.3 MODERN SECTOR EMPLOYMETT BY BRAN1CH OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, 1971, 1974 Tableau 1.3 EFFECTIFS DES TRAVAILLEURS DU SECTEUR MODERNE SELON LA BRANCHE D'ACTIVITE, 1971,1974 1971 1974 Total- Total % Vegetable and animal products , 78,052 4o.5 89,544 40.5 Produits vegetaux et animaux Extractive and recoveryindustries 3,154 1.6 3,619 1.6 Industrie extractive et recuperation Organic manufactured products 25,lo4 13.0 28,800 13.0 Industries manufacturieres de produits organiqes Chemical industries for mining and 10,853 5.6 12,452 5.6 Ind. chimiques de produits miniers et 4nerg6- power generating products tiques Construction and public works 15,321 7.9 17,577 7.9 Batiments et Travaux publics Electricity, gas, water 5,393 2,8 6,187 2.8 Electricite, gaz, Eau Financial institutions, insurance, Instituts financiers, assurances, real estates 3,o77 1.6 3,530 1.6 AZence immobiliere Transport and communications 26,08 13.5 29,929 13.5 Transport et entreprises de communication Services 5,383 2,8 6,176 2.8 Services Trade 20,_ 10,7 23,556 10.7 Commerce TOTAL 192,960 100.0 221,370 100.0 Source: Republique Unie du Cameroun, QuatriLme Plan Quinquennal de d6veloppement 6conomique social et cF u tuaer, y77,1-981, n.060 February 27, 1980  TABILE I.4: MODFRN SECTOR EMPLOYMENT BY PROVINCE TABLEAU 1.4: EFFECTIFS DES TRAVAILLFURS DIl SECTEUJR MODERN 1971 1974 Pf-ov i nces Littoral 92167 105737 East 3609 4139 North 7043 8079 West 6252 7172 South--Central 39026 44772 Northtwest & Southtlest 44863 51471 Total 192960 221370 SOUIRCE:Quaatr1eme Plan Ouinquennal de deveIloppemenrt economique social et culturel l976-1981.p.260. W.A. CP 1I B 04/22/80  Table 1.5 - PUBLIC SERVICE EMPLOYMENT, 1969/70-1977/78 Tableau 1.5 - EFFECTIFS DANS LA FONCTION PUBLIQUE, 1969/70-1977/78 1969Z70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 Established personnel n.a. 15,870 n.a. 16,310 18,201 19,672 22,342 24,193 25,514 Titulaires Category A __ 2,4) (2,145) (2,182) (2,732) (7 295)) (8163) 844. if B (2,326) (3,338) (3,872) (4,362) ) ' 5 B c (4,199) (4,736) (5,351) (6,124) (7,258) (8,048) (8,600) C D (6,975) (6,091) (6,696) (6,914) (7,789) (7,982) (8,070) D Contractual employees n.a. n.a. n.a. 2,170 3,034 3,444 3,436 4,452 4,905 Contractuels Employees recruited by deci- D#cisionaires sions and auxiliary employees n.a. n.a. n.a. 36,709 38,705 37,980 n.a. n.a. n.a. et auxiliaires Agents des Local council employees n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.911 11,160 11,385 n.a. n.a. n.a. collectivitas locales TOTAL 56,444 5910O 62 000 6601 000 72.11.71 n.a. n.a. n.a. TOTAL Source: Ministbre de l'Economic et du Plan, Direction de la Planification U' February 27, 1980  IABLE 2.1: GROSS DOMESTIC PPODUCT Bi INDUSlRIAL ORIGIN(l) (CURRENT MARKET PRICES:in billions of CFA Francs) TABLEAU 2.1: PRODUIT INTERIEUR BRUT PAR BRANCHES D'ACTIVITE AUX PRIX COURANTS DU MARCHE(en milliards de franics CFA) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Sectors Agriculture, fishery etc.(2) 60.2 61.4 66.1 75.2 81.0 92.0 97.7 Mining 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 2.1 Manufacturing 19.0 20.2 22.5 24.0 28.1 31.4 35.2 Electricity, gas & wiater' 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.9 4.5 4.8 Construction 10.8 11.9 12.0 14.1 14.0 11.3 12.0 Trade (3) 31.5 33.3 40.9 48.3 60.6 67.8 70.0 Transport and communications 13.9 15.0 16.3 17.7 18.9 20.3 21.2 Pubilic administration (4) 17.3 18.0 20.6 22.1 23.3 28.0 32.5 Other- services 24.0 26.0 27.1 30.6 30.7 32.3 33.4 Import duties 7.0 7.0 7.4 8.2 9.1 11.9 12.4 Gross domestic product 186.3 195.6 216.1 243.8 270.0 300.4 321.3 SOURCE:Direction de la statistique et de la comptabilite nationale and Bank Staff estimates. (1)Some figures for 1964/5-1968/9 were partly revised for consistency with the riew GDP series for 1969/70-1977/8. (2.Including livestock and forestry. (3)Including restaurants and hotels. (4)Including defense. (1)Certaines chiffres pour les annees 1964/5-68/9 ont ete en partie revisees pour etre en accord avec les nouvelles series PIE pour 1969/70-1977/78. W.A. CP II B 04/24/80 CD 0  TABLE 2.1: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY INDUSTRIAL ORIGIN(1) (CURRENT MARKET PRICES:in billions of CFA Francs) TAEIEAU 2.1: PROOUIT INTERIEUR BRUT PAR BRANCHES D'ACTIVITE AlJX PRIX COURANTS DU MARCHE(en milliards de francs CFA) 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 Sectors Agriculture, fishery etc.(2) 111.7 126.7 154.7 193.7 220.8 259.7 305.4 Mining 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.0 3.2 4.2 Manufacturing 38.3 40.4 45.6 56.2 67.5 74.7 87.4 Electricity, gas & water 4.8 4.8 5.3 5.7 6.7 10.1 11.7 Construction 13.7 15.9 19.4 21.6 28.6 42.2 46.6 Trade (3) 77.3 81.0 88.1 93.9 107.1 126.9 154.1 Transport arid communications 26.4 31.9 40.1 49.3 55.1 57.7 65.9 Pubilic administration (4) 32.6 33.0 34.4 43.6 45.1 56.2 70.7 Other services 37.6 51.9 84.7 81.0 87.0 111.6 139.2 Import duties 12.7 13.7 18.5 22.4 32.9 43.1 54.6 Gr-oss domestic product 355.9 400.5 492.6 569.7 652.8 785.4 939.8 SOURCE:Direction de la statistique et de la comptabilite riationale and Bank Staff estimates. (1)Some figures for 1964/5-1968/9 were partly revised for consistency with the new GDP series for 1969/70-1977/8. (2)Including livestock and forestry. (3)Including restaurants and hotels. (4)Including defense. Li (l)Certalnes chiffr-es pour les annees 1964/5-68/9 ont ete en partie revisees pour etre en accord avec les nouvelles series PI8 pour 1969/70-1977/78. W.A. CP II B 04/24/80 m 0w  TABLE 2.1A: SHARE OF GDP BY INDUSTRIAL ORIGIN (1) (CURRENT MARKET PRICES)(billions of CFA francs) TABLEAU 2.1A: REPARTITION DU PIB PAR BRANCHE D'ACTIVITE (PRIX COURANTS DU MARCHE)(milliards de francs CFA) f- E R C E N I A G E S 1965 19GG 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Sectors Agriculture, livestock etc.(2) 32.31 31.39 30.59 30.84 30.00 30.63 .30. 41 Mining 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.16 0.15 0.30 0.65 Manufacturing 10.20 10.33 10.41 9.84 10.41 10.45 10.96 Flectricity, gas & water, 1.23 1.28 1.34 1.31 t.44 1.50 1.49 Construction 5.80 6.08 5.55 5.78 5.19 3.76 3.73 Trade(3) 16.91 17.02 18.93 19.81 22.44 22.57 21 79 Transport and coimunric4tions 7.46 7.67 7.54 7 .26 7.00 6.76 6.60 Public admninistrationl4) 9.29 9.20 ' 9.53 9.06 8.63 9.32 10.12 Other services 12.88 13.29 12.54 .12.55 11.37 10.75 10.40 Import duties 3.76 3.58 3.42 3.36 3.37 3.96 3.86 GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 10)0.0 SOLJRCE:For Source and footnotes see table 2.1 W.A. CP II B 04/24/80 lb  TABLE 2.lA: SHARE OF GDP BY INDUSTRIAL ORIGIN (1) (CURRENT MARKET PRICES) (billions of CPA francs) TABLEAU 2.1A: REPARTITION DU PIB PAR BRANCHE D'ACTIVITE (PRIX COURANTS DU MARCHE) (millilards de francs CFA) 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1 97 8 Sectors A gr-icul tu-re, IivertoG~k Pt c. (2 3 1. 39 3 1.-64 3 1. 40 34.00 33. 82 33. 07 32 .50 Minriniig 0. 22 0. 30 0. 37 0. 40 0. 31 0. 41 0. 45 manuitfactuL ,iring 10. 76 10.09 9. 26 9. 86 10. 34 9. 51 9. 30 Electr-icity, gas & water, 1.35 1.20 1.08 1.00 1.03 1.29 1.24 Construct ion 3.85 3.97 3.94 3.79 4.38 5.37 4.96 Trade(3) 21.72 20.22 17.88 16.48 16.41 16.16 16.40 Transport and communiications 7.42 7.97 8.14 8.65 8.44 7.35 7.01 Publ ic administration(4) 9.16 8.24 6.98 7.65 6.91 7.16 7.52 Otter- services 10.56 12.96 17.19 14.22 13.33 14.21 14.81 Import duties 3.57 3.42 3. 76 3.93 5.04 5.49 5.81 GD P 100.0 100.0 100.0 100. 100.0 100.0 1 00. 0 SOLJRCE For Source anid foo tnotes see Tabl e 2.1 . W.A. CP II B 04/24/80 U,)  TABLE 2.2: GDP BY INDUSTRIAL ORIGIN AT 1974/5-76/7 MARKET PRICES (in bitlions of CFA francs) TABLEAU 2.2: PIB PAR BRANCHE D'ACTIVITE AUX PRIX DU MARCHE DE 1974/5-76/7 (en milliards de francs CFA) 1965 1966. 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Sectors Agriculture, fisher-y etc.(1)(4) 145.2 151.0 160.2 168.6 177.8 186.5 190.1 Mining(2) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.6 3.4 Manufacturing(l) 33.4 35.1 35.9 40.8 46.3 47.7 54.2 Electricity, gas & water(1) 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.5 6.8 Construction(3) 20.1 22.2 22.4 26.2 25.8 19.7 19.0 Trade (1)(5) 84.2 88.6 87.9 88.8 92.4 94.4 97.9 Transport & cornmunications (1) 33.5 35.0 36.7 39.5 41.9 42.8 44.6 Public administration(6) 26.4 26.8 27.7 29.5 31.3 34.6 36.3 Other services (2) 44.9 48.6 50.6 55.9 56.0 56.3 54 7 Import duties(2) 18.7 18.6 16.8 17.3 18.3 21.6 24.1 Gross domestic product 413.1 432.3 444.4 473.2 496.6 511.7 531.1 SOURCE:Bank Staff estimates. (1)Using production indices. (2)Using price indices. (3)Using an index of construction material prices and construction wages. (4)Including livestock and forestry.