Colombia - Economic position and prospects (Vol. 1 of 2) : Main report

Report No. 2235-CO FILE COPY Economic Position and Prospects of Colombia c- Ctm A5t (In Two Volumes) Volume 1: Main Report pr ^, January17,1979 rbRN TS l,A. & C. Latin America and Caribbean Regional Office iNFORMATION GEMS FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be ljsed by recipients only in the performance of their officiai duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World F:ank authorization  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit: Peso Exchange Rate Effective December 31, 1978 US$1.00 = Col$41.00 Col$1.00 = US$0.0244 Average Exchange Rate (Buling) 1974 1975 1976 1977 US$1.00 = Col$26.08 Col$30.95 Col$35.05 Col$36.998 Col$1.00 = US$0.0383 US$0.0323 US$0.0285 US$0.02703  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY This report is based on the findings of an economic mission to Colombia during April-May 1978, composed of Messrs. George R. Gebhart (Chief of Mission), Wolfgang Schohl (General Economist), Pedro Rado (Fiscal Economist, IMF) and Benjamin Sands (Statistical Assistant). This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.   ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM ON COLOMBIA TABLE OF CONTENTS VOLUME I - THE MAIN REPORT Page No. MAP COUNTRY DATA SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ............................ i - viii I. BACKGROUND ............................................. 1 A. Post World War II Growth Patterns ............. 1 B. The 1967-74 Period ............................ 2 C. The 1974-75 Economic Reforms ................. 4 D. The Benefits of Growth ........................ 5 II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: THE COFFEE BOOM AND STABILIZATION ................................ 7 A. Introduction ...... ........................ 7 B. Growth and Employment: 1976-77 .............. . 8 C. The Balance of Payments ..... .................. 10 D. Public Finances ...... ......................... 17 E. Financial Savings and Credit .................. 27 F. Developments in 1978 ............ .. ............ 29 III. DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY AND SECTORAL GROWTH PROSPECTS . 31 A. Development Strategy .31 B. Energy .... . ...... ........... 36 C. Manufacturing .38 IV. GROWTH PROSPECTS AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OUTLOOK ... 40 A. Growth Prospects .............. . .... 40 B. Public Sector Investment and Its Financing 40 C. Balance of Payments Outlook . 43 D. External Capital Requirements, Debt Management and Creditworthiness .46 VOLUME II - STATISTICAL APPENDIX   IBRD-3638R I 78 744' 7