Colombia - Economic position and prospects : Main report

Report No. 2535-CO Economic Position and Prospects of Colombia (In Two Volumes) Volume 1: Main Report Me June 1, 1979 COPI Latin America and Caribbean Regional Office r 1 > FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Rank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit: Peso Exchange Rate Effective April 30, 1979 US$1.00 = Col$42.430 Col$1.00 = US$0.02357 Average Exchange Rate (Buying) 1975 1976 1977 1978 US$1.00 = Col$31.202 Col$34.976 Col$36.998 Col$39.323 Col$1.00 = US$0.03205 US$0.02859 US$0.02703 US$0.02543  FOR OFFCIAL USE ONLY This report is based on the findings of an economic mission to Colombia during January-February 1979, composed of Messrs. George Gebhart (Chief of Mission), Wolfgang Schohl (Economist), Jorge Bonvicini (IMF), Wilfrid Gratz (IMF), and Mesdames Nancy Birdsall (Demographic Economist) and Raquel Fok (Statistical Assistant). The report also draws on the findings of an energy mission composed of Messrs. Eduardo Elejalde (Chief of Mission), John Stoddart (Petroleum Specialist), Dave Hughart (Energy Specialist) and Ms. Rangaswamy Vedavalli (Petroleum Specialist) and on the findings of a transport sector study on Colombia which was completed by Bank staff during 1978. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.   ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM ON COLOMBIA TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. VOLUME I - THE MAIN REPORT Map Country Data Summary and Conclusions ................................ i-viii I. Background ........................................1.... Economic Growth and Structural Change .................. 1 Export Promotion ....................................... 3 Demographic Change, Income Distribution and Poverty .... 5 II. Recent Economic Developments ........................... 9 Introduction ........................................... 9 Economic Developments in 1978 .......................... 11 The Stabilization Program .............................. 16 Monetary Policy ................................... 16 Fiscal Policy ..................................... 19 Outlook for 1979 ....................................... 24 III. Financing Development .................................. 26 The Public Sector ...................................... 26 Development Strategy .............................. 26 Public Sector Investment 1979-83 .... .............. 31 Financing Public Investment ....................... 37 Private Sector Investment and Its Financing .... ........ 41 IV. Growth Prospects and Balance of Payments Outlook ....... 43 Medium-Term Growth Prospects ........................... 43 Balance of Payments Prospects .......................... 45 External Capital Requirements .......................... 48 Debt Management and Creditworthiness ................... 51 Annex 1. Energy 2. Transportation VOLUME II - STATISTICAL APPENDIX   IBRD-3638R 78' 76' 4 2 70' OCTOBER I976 Rohocha '~~~~~~~~ SOUTH AMERICA9 ATLANTIC I / / C AGDALENAj C Ic' >6~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~f* "m~ yf / Lots Thotoar~~~~~~~~~~~.WdkmWt,h on tAR qoo 6'. /CORDOBAn1 V EZ UA I'~~~~~~g - i/C; _Y$~~~~N ANIDER4DER( A aAU' C't H 0 _ " r/V YC 'RSX, N,jN AN iAn,~~~~~~~~~~~i CHIOCHOAD A, -4- ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~ -.' SVACAI- NN u4lbio ~~ m E T- VALLE ~~~~ TOLIQMAE T 4K) r.l