Morocco - Survey of the Agricultural Sector and Prospects for the Development of Rainfed Areas

Document of The World Bank FILE COPY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CONFIDENTIAL Report No. 1395b-MOR RETURN TO REPORTS D- S'X WITHIN ONE WEEK MOROCCO SURVEY OF THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR \ND PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFED AREAS April 15, 1977 Projects Department Europe, Middle East and North Africa This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS 1 US$ 1.00 DH 4.30 DH 1.00 US$ 0.23 WEIGUTS AD MLASUES Metric System CLCA Caisse Locale de Crédit Agricole CMA Coopérative Marocaine Agricole (Grain Marketing Union) CMV Centre de Mise en Valeur (Extension center on irrigated areas) CNCA Caisse Nationale de Crédit Agricole CRCA Caisse Régionale de Crédit Agricole COMAGRI Compagnie Marocaine d'Agriculture (State Agricultural Company) COMAPRA Compagnie Marocaine de Commercialisation des Produits Agricoles (marketing Company) CT Centre de Travaux (extension center in non-irrigated areas) CTP Contrôle Technique et Phytosanitaire DAE Division des Affaires Economiques DEA Direction de l'Enseignement DER Direction de l'Equipement Rural (Rural Works Department of MA.RA) DERRO Développement Economique et Rural du Rif Oriental (Economic and Rural Development of the Eastern Rif) DMV Direction de la Mise en Valeur (agricultural development department) DRA Direction de la Recherche Agronomique (Agricultural Research Department of MARA) EEC European Economic Community ERES Etudes et Réalisations Economiques et Sociales FERTIMA Société Marocaine des Fertilisants (Fertilizer Company) IAV Institut Agronomique et Vétérinaire Hassan II MARA Ministère de l'Agriculture et de la Réforme Agraire (Agriculture Ministry) OCE Office de Commercialisation et d'Exportation (Fruit and vegetable exporting agency) ONICL Office National Interprofessionnel des Céréales et Légumineuses (Grain and pulses marketing agency) ORMVA Office Régional de Mise en Valeur Agricole (Regional irrigated development agency) PMH Small and Medium Irrigation SCAM Société Coopérative Agricole Marocaine (Grain Marketing Cooperative) SCARI Société de gommercialisation du Riz (Rice Marketing Cooperative) SNDE Société Nationale de Développement de l'Elevage (State Livestock Company) SOCAP Société de Crédit Agricole et de Prévoyance (Agricultural Credit Society) FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY CONFIDENTIAL SODEA Soci6t6 pour le D6veloppement Agricole (State Agricultural Company) SOGETA Soci&t6 pour la Gestion des Terres Agricoles (State Agricultural Company) SONACOS Soci6t6 Nationale de Commercialisation des Semences SP Services Provinciaux (Provincial Offices of MARA) 1/ All monetary values are expressed in current dirhan7s unless otherwise indicated This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. MOROCCO SURVEY OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS IN RAINFED AREAS TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. INTRODUCTION ..................................................... i-ii CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ................................... ii-ix I. THE ROLE AND PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURE ......................... I A. Trends n.................. ......................o....... B. Income and Consumption ... ....................... .. 5 C. Demand and Supply for Major Commodities ................. 10 II. STRUCTURE OF AGRICULTURE ......................................... 20 A. Sotucral Production ...................... 20 B. Land Use ................................................ 23 C. Land Distribution and Tenure ............................ 25 D. Land Reform ........................................... 29 E. Land Tenure and Erosion ................................ 30 III. PUBLIC INVESTMENTS AND POLICIES FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT ..... 31 A. Investment Strategy .................................... 35 B. Agricultural Planning and Policy Coordination ........... 37 C. Agricultural Prices ....ie......... ................. . 39 D. Subsidies ..... .......... ......1... . ......... 41 E. Agricultural Credit .... ... ... ............... .... . 44 IV. POSSIBILITIES FOR CROP PRODUCTION ....o........................ 47 A. Achieving Higher Yields and Yield Stability ........... 47 B. Agricultural Research ......... ... ..... .. ..... .... ..... 52 C. Extension Service re......... .. ............... ......... 55 D. Education and Training ......aii5............ ........ 56 V. CONDITIONS FOR LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT ....EE..P...... .......... 58 A. Milk Production and Marketing .............on...i...... 60 B. Meat Production and Marketing .................... 61 C. Government Services and Investment for Livestock Development ....t....... ....... ................... . 62 D. Range and Pasture Improvement ......po....t............ 65 VI. IRRIGATION AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT .............. .... 69 A. Types of Irrigated Agriculture ...g..A............... 69 B. Water Availability and Utilization ...........z...tn... . 72 D. Prospects for Small and Medium Irrigation .......an..... 73 E. Investment Level ....................................... 74 LIST OF TABLES Table Number Subject and Title Economic Aggregates, Production and Trade 1.0 Total and Agricultural Gross Domestic Production 1.1 Agricultural GDP - Three-Year Moving Average 2.0 Volume and Value of Agricultural Production 2.1 Three-Year Moving Average of Gross Value of Agricultural Products 3.0 Total of Agricultural Trade 3.1 Volume and Value of Major Agricultural Exports 3.2 Volume and Value of Major Agricultural Imports 3.3 Value of Agricultural Exports and Imports at Constant Prices 3.4 Price and Quantity Effects of Major Agricultural Exports 3.5 Price and Quantity Effects of Major Agricultural Imports Supply and Demand 4.0 Supply and Utilization of Nine Major Commodities 4.1 Utilization Trend of Nine Major Commodities 4.2 Composition of Household Expenditures for Food in 1970-1971 4.3 Estimated per Capita Consumption of Major Foods Population and Employment 5.0 Estimates and Projections of Population and Labor Force 5.1 Economically Active Population by Sector - 1960 and 1971 5.2 Structure of Rural Employment in 1960 and 1971 Land Use and Crop Production 6.0 Land Availability and Utilization 6.1 Land in Major Crops in 1974-75 6.2 Actual and Projected Irrigated Crops 6.3 Area Planted with Major Crops in Modern Irrigation Perimeters 6.4 Volume and Gross Value of Crop Production Under Irrigation, 1961-65 and 1971-75 7.0 Area in Major Field Crop, 1967-75 7.1 Field Crop Production 7.2 Average Yields of Major Field Crops 7.3 Production of Selected Fruits, Vegetables and Tobacco Irrigation 8.0 Irrigable and Irrigated Land by Major Perimeter and Type of System 8.1 Large Irrigation Schemes 8.2 Tentative List of PMR Projects under consideration Livestock 9.0 Livestock Inventory 9.1 Yearly Livestock Production 9.2 Yearly Livestock Consumption 9.3 Dairy Processing Capacity and Utilization in 1975 9.4 1974 Prices for Livestock Products and Production Inputs Prices and Inputs 10.0 Prices paid to Farmers for Major Crops (1969-1976) 11.0 Trade in Agricultural Machinery and Inputs 12.0 Commercial Fertilizer Use (100 ons of Useful Elements) Agricultural Research and Education 13.0 Agricultural Research Budgets 14.0 Production of Foundation Seed on Experiment Stations 14.1 Production of Certified and Registered Seed of Bread Wheat 14.2 Agricultural Research Organization Chart I 14.3 Agricultural Research Organization Chart II 14.4 Personnel of Agricultural Research Department 14.5 Moroccan and Foreign Technicians in Agricultural Research Department 15.0 Students in Agricultural Training Investment 16.0 1973-77 Development Plan, Resource Availability and Use for Agriculture 16.1 Composition of Investment for Agricultural Development during the 1968-72 and 1973-77 Development Plan 16.2 Investment Expenditures for Irrigation 16.3 Commitments and Expenditures for Irrigation During the 1968-72 and 1973-77 Development Plans ANNEX I Cereal Forage Rotation System Mapg No. IBRD 10682 MOROCCO SURVEY OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS IN RAINFED AREAS INTRODUCTION i. This report represents the findings of a Bank mission to Morocco from May 17 to June 9, 1976, to review the performance and structure of the agricultural sector of Morocco, with emphasis on the development needs and prospects of rainfed areas. 1/ ii. As agreed between the Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform (MARA) and the Bank, the Mission's report is limited in scope. It does not deal with certain topics, e.g., agro-industry, and treats many others tan- gentially, e.g., agriculture in large irrigated areas, agricultural market structure and processes. The identification of specific development proj- ects was deferred until after preparation of the next development plan has begun and this report is reviewed by Moroccan authorities. No considera- tion is, therefore, given the next development plan. In view of the concur- rent appraisal of agricultural credit (CNCA III) by the EMENA Projects Department, very few issues of farm credit are reviewed herein. iii. Therefore, this report basically treats issues and problems in- herent in the rainfed agriculture of Morocco. Admittedly, economic and geographical boundaries between rainfed and irrigated areas cannot always be clearly drawn since certain commodities are produced in both areas. A large proportion of land in irrigation districts (perimeters) is "rainfed" while small and medium irrigation schemes exist in so-called rainfed areas. Some issues, e.g. land tenure, are common to the entire agricultural sec- tor, though in most cases they are more complex for non-irrigated than irrigated areas. iv. The report is organized to enable the reader to proceed from general to specific topics. Therefore, it begins with a statement of Conclusions and Recommendations, including prospects for Bank assistance. Chapter I reviews rapidly the performance of agriculture in terms of pro- duction, trade and consumption. In Chapter II, the structure of the sec- tor is reviewed, with emphasis on sources of production, land utilization and tenure in rainfed areas. In Chapter III, salient aspect of public 1/ The mission consisted of Messrs. J. Kozub (Mission Leader), H. Floyd (Agriculturist) D. von Samson (Livestock Specialist), R. Stevenin (Hydrologist Engineer), N. Tiver (Pasture Specialist, Consultant, part-time), J. Marinet (Agricultural Research, Consultant, part-time), and Miss G. Larouche (Research Assistant). - ii - investments and policies are analyzed. The last three chapters assess the possibilities for improving crop and livestock production in rainfed areas, including prospects for small and medium irrigation. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Basic Conditions and Salient Issues v. Certain elements of Morocco's development offer favorable prospects for the agricultural sector as a whole and non-irrigated agriculture in par- ticular. Domestic demand exceeds supply for nearly all agricultural commodi- ties, but especially for cereals, meat, dairy products, and oilseeds. Morocco also enjoys well-developed export markets for many commodities. There is considerable under-utilization of resources. Levels of technology can be raised without much risk of labor substitution since few capital-intensive programs are needed except for irrigation. Farmers have responded favorably to price and other incentives, notably for sugar beet, sugar cane, and pulses. The public sector is reasonably well-structured for agricultural development, especially the MARA and the credit system. vi. A few major issues could severely handicap future agricultural development efforts, especially those segments of agriculture which have not benefited from the capital intensive allocation of resources of the last two Plans: (a) The recent alarming rate of increase of food imports, mainly bread wheat, vegetable oils, milk and butter. Only sugar imports seem to have stabilized. This phenomenon is not the result of short-term fluctuations such as occurred since 1973, but of a long-term trend of increasing consumption. Meat imports, begun in 1976, may escalate in the future. (b) The high level of subsidies to finance the higher unit cost and volume of food imports. Although subsidies for food con- sumption sustain a high level of demand, they introduce serious distortions of prices paid to agricultural producers, which are not offset by more modest and selective subsidies on farm inputs. (c) Investment strategy and resource allocation during 1968-72 and 1973-77 Plan has concentrated on capital-intensive programs which, except for the construction of irrigation networks, usually do not create new productive capacity at the farm level. Thus expected gains in agricultural productivity and incomes have not yet been achieved, in spite of the large level of investment made since 1968. The exceptions - sugar beets, cotton and pulses - have too little weight as a group to affect the agricultural sector as a whole. - iii - (d) A corollary to the preceding issue is that directly produc- tive investment programs are concentrated over relatively small areas and thereby exclude at least two-thirds of Morocco's 1.9 million farmers, whose resource base and related conditions place them at the margin. This also affects rainfed areas within the large irrigation districts. (e) During the present Plan the level of resources utilized has fallen below 50% of the amount authorized for non-irrigated programs. This indicates a more limited absorptive capacity than was anticipated at the outset of the Plan period. (f) Serious problems of land use and tenure in nonirrigated areas must be resolved to increase productivity and prevent further land deterioration. Improved land use in irrigated areas and through conservation schemes alone cannot compensate for problems of rainfed agriculture which represents 90% of the crop areas. Tenure arrangements on collective lands and absentee ownership are detrimental to the development of rainfed areas. vii. The foregoing issues should enter into consideration for future investment plans and programs. It is of central interest that the Government recently expressed its intent to shift its strategy of agricultural develop- ment from a concentration on a relatively small segment of agriculture, mainly irrigation and exports, to the gradual transformation of the entire sector. Because such a shift must be translated into resource allocation decisions, it will not probably be observed on a large scale until the next development plan is prepared. However, the reorientation merits full support in all of its aspects. Basis for Future Development Programs and Projects viii. Parallel with the redirection of agricultural development strategy intended by the Government, is the need for a shift in resources from activi- ties which mainly create or acquire physical capital to be used outside the production context of agriculture, to resources which directly contribute to the income earning capacity of farmers. Agricultural credit selectively finances a share of on-farm investment as do subsidies for the purchse of fertilizer, machinery, dairy cattle, etc. However, more general prerequisites and opportunities for on-farm investment are needed where results are more likely to be achieved without great delays. ix. Because of the imperative of increasing food production and reducing the undesired social and economic effects of excessive land fragmentation, future programs aimed at rainfed areas will have to overcome the limits on expanding the area in crops and reverse the overgrazed conditions of the coun- try's rangelands. For both crop and livestock production future programs should be aimed at reasonably large areas where either private initiative or Government action have shown that the productivity of land and remuneration of labor can be raised. - iv - x. For crop production, future development programs should include mea- sures to: (a) intensify land use and achieve some degree of yield stability, (b) make better use of fallow, (c) accelerate the planning and execution of small and medium-scale irrigation schemes, (d) enable smallholders to expand or consolidate their holdings through measures similar to those taken in the irrigated perimeters, and (e) expand cultivation of bread wheat and oilseeds under irrigation. xi. The prospects for livestock production could be promising if the strategy adopted focuses on increasing weights while reducing the number of animals in cattle herds and sheep flocks, and containing the rapid growth in the number of goats, while restoring grazing land and improving the supply of forage. Positive results would materialize if restrictions of meat im- ports are imposed, and the Government's attempts at solving problems of land use and tenure are expanded. The scope for increasing milk production is limited to the specialized dairy farms in the irrigated perimeters and milk- sheds near the major cities, and the better endowed farms in rainfed areas. Most smallholders in non-irrigated areas generally lack the physical and economic resources to become commercial milk producers. To Intensify Land Use (a) stimulate the production of bread wheat and oilseeds on irrigated land; (b) concentrate action on non-irrigated areas of the ORMVA's (Office Regional de Mise en Valeur Agricole); (c) reduce the proportion of land in weed-fallow through forage crops where rainfall is sufficient; (d) promote mechanical progress through better hand-tools, more suitable implements and rational mechanization; (e) formulate soil conservation program so that improved agricultural production is a primary objective rather than a long-range by-product; and (f) search for additional sources of groundwater and regu- late its use for agricultural purposes more strictly. Extension xii. Though the basic institutional framwork and manpower exist to implement the preceding recommendations, the CT (Centre de Travaux) concept has been seriously crippled by trying to fulfill incompatible functions, i.e., enforcing regulations, marketing, and education. Demonstrations reach relatively few farmers and are excessively concerned with "technology" rather than profit. The extension service does not need more agents so much as it needs to use its present staff more effectively and reduce attrition. This should involve elimination of reglementary and commercial tasks, better - v - pay for carreer personnel, elimination of marginal agents and tighter supervi- sion of extension activities coupled with a strict accountability of personnel for accomplishing their objectives. In-service training involving real farming situations should replace the largely theoretical, classroom approach now being used. Achievement should be measured in increased yields and profitability at the farm level and effective agents should be rewarded. Ways should be explored to bring research and extension into a closer working relationship. Agricultural Research xiii. In order to achieve an effective agricultural research program a re- appraisal of the scope and method of the work of the DRA, its structure and its staff is needed. A reorientation and reorganization of the present effort should eventually have a favorable impact on major crop yields. (a) Scope: While DRA need not engage in extensive plant breed- ing, it should conduct a much more aggressive and concentrated program of trials leading to the release of varieties of wheat, barley, maize, sorghum, and suitable oilseeds, which are well- adapted to the major ecological regions of Morocco where these crops are grown. Generally, its present crop research work is dispersed among too many commodities and carried out at too many stations. The DRA's program should be based on the national priorities set forth in the Plan, and inter alia the following consideration: (a) the degree of urgency of the research; (b) the time and costs required; (c) the costs and benefits of subsequent adoption by farmers; and (d) availability of staff and equipment. Major commodity research projects could then be chosen and bud- geted according to more specific criteria approved by the MARA on the recommendations of a research committee. Relevant criteria might include: (a) consumption patterns and nutri- tional levels; (b) the importance of the crop in the agricul- tural sector and in the economy; (c) the effect of increased production on the balance of payments; and (d) the effect on farm income and profitability. (b) Staffing: A much larger number of higher level scientists is needed in the DRA. This would help assure that the research is carried out according to scientific criteria rather than budgetary considerations. A strong working relationship should be established with the Institut Agronomique et Veterinaire and other schools not only to avoid duplication of efforts, but to involve faculty and students in problem- solving research under local conditions. (c) Technical Cooperation. Technical cooperation with the Interna- tional Agricultural Research Centers (CIM=T/ICRISAT) should be resumed to include additional training of Moroccan scientists as well as regular exchanges of wheat, barley, maize, sorghum and forage crop germ plasm. Such exchanges would greatly ac- celerate progress in genetic improvement. - vi - Seed Production and Distribution xiv. Seed production and distribution will require one or more alterna- tives to the unsatisfactory arrangements that prevail. The CTP (Controle Technique et Phytosanitaire) Division of DRA should assume full responsibility for research dealing with plant protection and quality control of seeds. Seed certification should continue to be one of its major responsibilities. To avoid dilution of responsibility it would be desirable for the newly created, but as yet non-operational SONACOS (Societe Nationale de Commercialisation des Semences), to be financially autonomous but technically accountable to the CTP. In view of COMAGRI's (Compagnie Marocaine de Commercialisation des Produits Agricoles) past failure to provide forage seeds and the unsatis- factory arrangement through the SCAM (Societe Cooperative Agricole Marocaine), it is important that the multiplication of seed continue through individual farmers, under inspection by the DRA, and that SONACOS.does not assume a monopoly position for seed marketing. For SONACOS to perform as expected a premium should, of course, be paid for certified seeds. Consideration should be given to creating an association of independent seed producers and merchants. Improving the Forage Base for Livestock Development xv. In order to upgrade and preserve the productive capability of Morocco's rangelands, range management projects such as those currently being implemented in Oujda, Midelt, El Borouj, El Hadra, need to be encouraged. These projects are expected to yield valuable information which could be applied to similar areas and rangelands in general after their impact is evaluated. Such projects need technical guidance and vigorous support to ensure that practical solutions to unresolved technical, economic and social problems will emerge after five years or more of operation. The appointment of a technical advisor is necessary to guide and train national technicians, and collect data on the several units which exist or are about to be estab- lished. This could result eventually in innovative investment for livestock development. xvi. Through the improvement of farming practices in certain production zones, it would be possible to simultaneously increase crop and livestock production. To this end, the use of legume pasture (Australian ley system) has definite application in selected cereal production zones. But its rapid adoption is unlikely until the system has been properly demonstrated, the subsistence needs of farmers fully satisfied and only if the system does not involve any drastic changes in farming practices and equipment used. It could begin as the technical assistance component of a crop and/or livestock improvement project, to explore the means of gaining farmer acceptance of the system and gradually leading to the integration of cereal cropping with livestock production. It should consist of a small pilot project of a few thousand hectares, with not more than 50-60 farmers who also raise livestock, in a zone where rainfall, winter temperatures, and the rotation pattern are suitable. - vii - Small and Medium Size Irrigation (PMH) xvii. Small and medium irrigation schemes contribute to more intensive land use. They should be organized into water resources districts adminis- tered by a small full-time staff concerned with agriculture as well as water management and operation and maintenance of the system. Investment plans for PMH schemes should include the complement of resources needed to make them productive, including credit. If feasibility studies are favorable, external financing of a group of the PMH schemes, e.g. those in Table 8.2, should be sought. Parallel with financing PMH schemes, groundwater exploration should be accelerated to bridge the gap between present utilization and needs of the more arid areas. Water use regulations need to be more firmly enforced for new wells and pumping installations to curb over-utilization and unregulated extraction from the aquifers. Complementary Measures and Policies xviii. Prices and Subsidies. Prices paid to producers and large subsidies of a few imported food commodities are the leading economic issue of Moroccan agriculture. Large subsidies for the import of wheat, sugar, butter and vege- table oil have had a moderating effect on the increase in consumer prices, but have made it possible to hold down prices received by farmers, especially for bread wheat and oilseeds. Subsidies for fertilizer, dairy, cattle, forage and other incentives stipulated by the Investment Code are intended to offset selectively the effect of low prices on farm income. Such a system is remuner- ative only for farmers with an adequate resource endowment to achieve low unit costs of production. It has boosted sugar beet production, enabled commercial dairy farmers to invest in purebred dairy cattle and increase milk output and even make it possible to produce durum wheat under irrigation. However, it does not provide incentives for smallholders of modest economic means who cannot assume the risks of higher unit costs of production implied by fixed prices. This applies particularly to bread wheat, which is fixed at an artificially low price maintained with the help of import subsidies. xix. Although low prices paid to producers for several commodities is not the only factor that depresses output, an appraisal is urgently needed of the following: (a) the methods of price determination for major commodi- ties that are subject to both fixed and support prices; (b) prices actually paid to producers relative to costs of production and the price incentives needed to raise output; (c) the short and long-term effects of subsidies for imported foods on retail prices, income distribution, and prices paid to producers. xx. Alternative approaches to the present system should be sought to achieve a degree of domestic price stability and provide incentives to pro- ducers to increase domestic supplies of strategically important food products. With the economic dualism of Morocco's agriculture, choices will have to be made between three possible approaches: (a) continue the present system of large food import subsidies complemented by highly selected subsidies for relatively few producers, with the consequence that the dualism would there- by be exacerbated; (b) reallocate subsidies among a much larger number of - viii - farmers as an inducement to supply agreed quantities at contracted prices, as practiced for sugar beets and milk; (c) gradually reduce the total amount of subsidies and allow prices to rise in response to effective demand, while continuing to rely on support prices near market prices to reaffirm the Government's determination to curb the excesses of the free market by direct purchases from producers. xxi. Land Tenure Reform. The land consolidation measures taken in the ORMVA's under the Investment Code are partially applicable in rainfed areas, especially with small irrigation and range improvement schemes. The MARA has done this with some success and should expand this type of structural reform. Broader reforms to benefit a larger number of peasants should eventually lead to the distribution of excessively large properties, the abolition of absentee ownership and/or regulation of tenancy arrangements. Compensation would pose few difficulties in view of the land rent already imputed in farm production accounts. Accelerated and more extensive reforms would, however, require a decentralization of the land reform function from Rabat to the level of pro- vincial services and CT's. Consideration should also be given to consolidat- ing all land reform function in the Department of Land Surveys and Management (Conservation Fonciere). Prospects for Bank Assistance xxii. Previous Bank and IDA lending to the sector amounts to US$199.6 million with US$24 million from IDA and US$175.6 million from the Bank. Approximately 74% of total lending to the sector has been for irrigation infrastructure, and the rest for agricultural credit (US$34 million) and the development of rainfed area near Meknes (US$14 million). A loan of US$35 million is pending for agricultural credit through CNCA, and appraisal has been completed for a second loan to the Doukkala irrigation. Project prepara- tion work is in progress for one irrigated area (Haouz), two non-irrigated areas (Loukkos and Northern Fez), and for fruit and vegetable production (Souss-Massa). xxiii. Future Bank assistance could be contemplated for the following: (a) A,major effort to halt land misuse. This could begin with land capability surveys incorporated in future rainfed agri- cultural projects and evolve into a program of soil conserva- tion requiring credit, machinery, tools, seeds, new crops, and extension components. Use of land outside its capability is resulting in extensive erosion and serious reduction of the nation's already limited agricultural land resources; (b) At least one major rainfed project for one or more areas larger than either the Meknes or Fez projects, which should include small and medium irrigation; - ix - (c) A livestock/forage improvement program comprised of range- land improvement in the steppe, and technical assistance to introduce subterranean clover, "medics", or other forages in the cereal-fallow rotation. The latter could also be part of a project in rainfed areas such as the one in Fez; (d) Agricultural research and some aspects of improved seed pro- duction and distribution. MOROCCO SURVEY OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS IN RAINFED AREAS I. THE ROLE AND PERFORMANCE OF AGRICULTURE A. Trends 1.01 The agricultural sector of Morocco typifies the central role that agriculture plays in the development and growth of a country: it directly accounts for over one-fourth of GDP, and employs directly at least 60% of the economically active population. Agro-industry and agri-business, which are excluded from the sector's accounts, are estimated to represent 10% of GDP and to employ 25-30% of the labor force of the industry and services sectors. Agriculture until recently has accounted for 54-55% of total exports. Agri- cultural imports represented only about one-third of total imports, thereby producing a positive agricultural trade balance. AGRICULTURE'S SHARE IN THE ECONOMY (Percentage) 1960 1971 1973 1975 /1 Agricultural GDP 32 31 27 24 Population 71 65 63 62 Labor Force 70 65 63 62 Agricultural Exports/ Total Exports 54 54 37 27 Agricultural Imports/ Total Imports 30 32 35 34 Al Estimated. Source: Tables 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 and 5.0. 1.02 Notwithstanding the recurrent influence of weather on agriculture in Morocco, the agricultural sector showed a respectable capacity for growth between the early 1960's and early 1970's during which agricultural GDP grew by an adjusted average of--4% annually. Contrary to conventional trends, whereby the GDP share of agriculture declines as other sectors grow more rapidly, the sector regularly contributed at least 30% to GDP until 1973, when it began to decline to its present share of 24% of GDP. However, it could regain its position when the investments of three previous development plans bear fruit. While total GDP increased at an average annual rate of 4.3% between the base period of 1960-62 and 1971-75, agricultural GDP followed at 3.0% per annum, thus keeping pace with the increase of population. As shown in Table 1.0 the effect of the wide inter-annual fluctuations in agricultural GDP and gross value of output have to be moderated by adjusting for these - 2 - fluctuations and measuring them over longer periods. For example, the period 1960-75 experienced three years during which agricultural GDP declined by 12% over the previous year and one when it fell by 15%. Recoveries have been sufficiently sharp, with increases of 27% in 1962, 30% in 1968 and 14% in 1974 to sustain a 3% rate of growth. However, as shown in Tables 1.1 and 2.1 performance during the last four years has tapered off and, measured by moving averages, has declined slightly. 1.03 The sluggish performance of the last few years is shown by the level of gross and per capita indices for all commodities, crops, livestock and food. Although aggregate volume of output (Table 2.0) rose by 3% during 1961- 65/1971-75, and by 3.6% from 1961 to 1970 due in part to the record harvest in 1968, growth has been unimpressive since 1971. Admittedly, 1973 and 1975 were years of low rainfall. When their effect is mitigated by moving aver- ages (Table 2.1) aggregate agriculture decreased at an average of .8% annually from 1970 to 1975, crop and food production declined by 1% and only livestock increased by 1.4%. Because non-irrigated crops represent approximately 74% of total crop production and 56% of total agricultural output, delayed or defi- cient rainfall at critical times depresses production. Thus, the annual varia- tions in production from the 1966-75 average ranges from 27 to 42% for major non-irrigated crops, compared with variations ranging from 12 to 21% for major irrigated crops. However, although rainfall plays a critical role in determin- ing the level of annual agricultural production, other factors such as prices and the pattern of investment, also account for the sector's performance. INDICES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (1961-65=100) Total Live- Per capita Per capita Year Agriculture Crops Stock Food agriculture food 1966 95 89 111 95 87 87 1967 104 100 115 104 92 92 1968 160 177 115 163 137 140 1969 124 126 120 125 103 104 1970 128 133 117 129 103 104 1971 143 153 117 145 111 113 1972 144 152 123 144 108 108 1973 119 119 120 118 87 86 1974 146 151 132 147 103 103 1975 118 117 122 118 80 80 Source: Table 2.0. 1.04 The failure of agriculture in recent years to sustain the growth of the 1960's may have far-reaching repercussions on agricultural trade and investment as well as income and employment in rural areas. It is evident that more resources are presently utilized in agriculture than ten years ago. Land in crops expanded by some 500,000 ha, including 300,000 ha of new or improved irrigated land, fertilizer utilization tripled, and the use of - 3 - mechanization increased at approximately 8% annually. 1/ As shown in Table 2.0 production certainly increased for selected commodities during the last decade, considerably in the case of beans, cotton and sugar beets, and mod- estly for livestock and cereals. The latter two combined represent two- thirds of the gross weighted value of agricultural production, 27-28% for livestock products and 39% for cereals. During the period 1961-65/1971-75, production of major cereals (wheat, barley and maize) is estimated to have increased in volume at the average rate of only 2% annually. Livestock is estimated to have increased also by an average of only 2% annually. 1.05 With relatively abundant though tardy rainfall, 1976 crop produc- tion is expected to have been at near record levels. According to preliminary results the 1976 wheat, barley and corn harvests were the second highest since the record level of 1968. A total of 5.4 million tons was harvested in 1976 compared with 3.5 million tons in 1975 and 4.6 million tons in 1974. The large cereal harvest may help contain the increase in bread (soft) wheat imports, even though 1976 output was only 129,000 tons over 1975. Some limited substitution is possible among durum and bread wheat. Consequently 1976 and 1977 bread wheat imports should be considerably less than I million tons. However, if international prices are favorable, bread wheat imports may not decline in proportion to the higher harvest in view of the Government's desire to establish a reserve stock of 500,000 tons, or twice the current level. Also, Morocco's demand for bread wheat continues to rise at a rate greater than the increase in popula tion. 2/ VOLUME OF RECENT CEREAL HARVESTS ('000 Tons) 1968 1973 1974 1975 1976 /1 Durum wheat 2,068 1,182 1,380 1,204 1,800 Bread wheat 709 392 473 371 500 Barley 3,494 1,255 2,387 1,585 2,700 Maize 415 217 390 371 400 . Total /1 Preliminary. Source: Table 7.1 and MARA data. 1/ Measured by the net addition of tractors and associated implements. 2/ See paras. 1.17-1.20. 1.06 Trade in agricultural commodities has historically enabled Morocco to cushion a consistently negative overall trade balance. Until recently, when the value of phosphate exports approximately doubled, agricultural exports represented a steady 54-55% of total exports, while agricultural imports remained at about 30-32% of total imports. At current prices the positive balance of agricultural trade reached a peak of DH 682 million in 1969, and remained at or near DH 500-600 million until 1973. However, after 1973 agricultural exports levelled off at DH 2.1 billion and fell to DH 1.7 billion in 1975. Agricultural imports rose from an average of DH 615 million in 1966-67 to DH 3.1 billion in 1974-75. The drop in agricultural exports coincided with the doubling in the value of phosphate exports, thereby reduc- ing agriculture's share of total exports, and lagging demand for Morocco's agricultural products. The rise in imports is partially due to unanticipated increases in domestic demand which could be financed with both much higher phosphate earnings and subsidies, and to the failure to increase production of major commodities. VALUE AND INDEX OF PRINCIPAL AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS (Million DH at 1966-67 Constant Prices, Index 1966-67 = 100) Year Exports Imports Value Index Value Index 1966-67 824 100 737 100 1968 983 119 801 109 1969 1,146 139 565 77 1970 941 114 648 95 1971 901 109 764 104 1972 1,163 141 635 86 1973 1,283 156 876 119 1974 1,005 122 905 123 1975 838 102 1,071 145 Source: Table 3.3 1.07 The rising trend of imports is much more pronounced than what appears to be merely a cyclical phenomenon for exports. Soft wheat and edible oil imports doubled during the last ten years and those of milk and dairy products rose by 68%. These three groups of commodities together have accounted for approximately 95% of the increase in major agricultural imports over the last 10 years. 1.08 Morocco's agricultural exports grew steadily until 1973 after which both domestic production and external demand receded. Except for wine, the volume of seven major products, which represent 56-58% of total agricultural exports, increased until 1973. Parallel with sagging demand, production of six of the seven commodities declined in 1974 and 1975, notwithstanding higher prices. For annual crops, the decline in production is understandable, in view of falling external demand. However, for perennial crops--citrus, olive (oil) and wine--lower external demand during a two-year period could not have caused the fall in production. - 5 - INDICES OF AVERAGE PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS OF MAJOR COMMODITIES IN 1972-1975 (1966-67 = 100) Product Production Exports 1972-73 1974-75 1972-73 1974-75 Citrus 121 60 138 106 Tomatoes 121 112 129 127 Pulses 170 258 238 141 Olive oil 183 139 324 199 Canned fruits & vegetables /1 n.d. n.d. 213 179 Canned juices /I n.d. n.d. 76 52 Wine /2 91 77 77 42 /I No data is available to compare production with exports. /2 Production expressed as grapes. Source: Tables 2.0 and 3.3. 1.09 The inference that can be drawn from the experience of the last three years is that with shortfalls in domestic production and rising domestic demand, Morocco should seek to become less vulnerable to international agri- cultural prices, especially for commodities that are traded in large volumes, by assigning priority to the satisfaction of domestic demand over further ex- pansion of exports. Higher international prices for agricultural commodities helped cushion the effect of a decline in exports in 1974 and 1975, but also had the effect of inflating the value of agricultural imports. As shown in Tables 3.4 and 3.5, where the effect of higher world prices is isolated from changes in volume of major traded agricultural commodities, higher prices affected imports much more than exports after 1973. In general, the volume of agricultural exports did not increase sufficiently, and even declined for some commodities (e.g. citrus, pulses, wine) that could profit from higher prices. For imports, the impact of higher prices--e.g. 245% for bread wheat, 454% for sugar, 160% for vegetable oils--was compounded by large increases in volume. B. Income and Consumption 1.10 With about 10.8 million rural inhabitants out of a total population of 17.8 million, the relatively large rural population of Morocco continues to increase in absolute numbers, even though its average annual rate of in- crease of 1.7 is greatly exceeded by the 5.2% growth of urban population. It will be about 1990 when urban and rural population are approximately equal in numbers. The significance of the trend for the agricultural sector resides not only in the need for expanding employment in both agricultural and -6- non-agricultural sectors simultaneously, but also in changing consumption patterns and levels implied by changing demographic patterns. So far urbani- zation has generated higher household consumption expenditures for urban than for rural areas, as demonstrated by the last two Household Consumption Surveys. Equally important, the composition of consumption in the country as a whole is evolving toward improvements in the nutritive quality of foods consumed, i.e. less starch and fat and a larger and more diversified intake of animal and vegetable proteins. CHANGES IN PER CAPITA GDP AND CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES /1 Increase 1975 1959-60 1970-71 %/Year (est.) (----- DH ------ (DH) Per capita GDP /2 781 895 1.4 980 Private consumption per capita /2 563 670 1.8 690 Agricultural GDP per capita /3 330 379 1.6 337 Per capita household expenditures /' 450 720 4.4 - urban 614 1,102 5.4 - rural 392 530 2.8 /1 At 1960 constant prices, using the implicit GDP deflator. /2 From national accounts, excluding general government. /3 Calculated on basis of agricultural GDP per rural inhabitant. 4 From household consumption surveys. Source: Mission estimates. 1.11 Income, the best available single indicator of economic welfare, has risen slightly in Morocco. On a per capita basis, as shown above, the increase was small during the 1959-60/1975 period. The average annual in- creases did not exceed 1.5-1.6%. However, the increase in income, together with the increase in urban population of about 2 million during the period, has been sufficient to change consumption levels and pattern. The proportion spent on food declined for both rural and urban populations during the 1959-60 to 1970-71 period. In 1970-71 only 54% of average family expenditures were for food compared with 70% spent in 1959-60. The improvement for urban areas was greater, as average expenditures doubled during the period, while the proportion spent on food declined from 60 to 45% of total spending. Rural areas achieved smaller gains, with total household spending increasing by 69%, though the proportion for food also decreased, from 76 to 63%. - 7 - COMPOSITION OF HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES PER PERSON IN 1959-60 AND 1970-71 /1 1959-60 1970-71 Amount % Amount % Urban Food 366 60 616 45 Clothing 47 8 128 9 Lodging 114 18 311 23 Other 87 14 322 23 Total (DH) current prices 614 100 1,377 100 Rural Food 298 76 421 63 Clothing 32 8 77 12 Lodging 21 5 100 15 Other 41 10 65 10 Total (DH) current prices 392 99 663 100 National Average Food 316 70 486 54 Clothing 35 8 93 10 Lodging 45 10 171 19 Other 54 12 150 17 Total (DH) current prices 450 100 900 100 /1 At current prices. Source: Ministere de l'Economie Nationale, La Consommation et les Depenses des Menages Marocains Musulmans, August 1961; and Secretariat d'Etat au Plan, La Consommation et les Depenses des Menages au Maroc (Avril 1970 - Avril 1971), Vol. IV, Alimentation et Nutrition. 1.12 Assuming that consumption expenditures reasonably reflect levels of income and that the GDP implicit deflator during 1960-71 equally applies to personal incomes and expenditures, it appears from the preceding tables that real incomes of the rural population lagged behind urban areas and the trend continues. It reflects the performance of agriculture relative to total GDP, notwithstanding favorable years such as 1968, 1970 and 1971. The concentration of agricultural investment in relatively small geographical areas and Government policy aimed at maintaining low and stable agricultural prices are other contributing factors. -8- COMPOSITION OF HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION OF MAJOR FOODS IN 1959-60 AND 1970-71 (DH per person annually) 1959-60 1970-71 Item Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Average Cereals 103 109 108 120 124 123 Meat 70 33 43 159 81 107 Sugar 31 42 39 51 61 68 Oil 25 19 21 31 30 30 Milk 11 7 8 29 19 22 Tea & coffee 16 18 21 27 25 26 Butter 9 8 8 14 9 11 Sub-total 275 236 248 431 349 387 Total food 366 298 316 616 421 486 Total expenditures 614 392 450 1,378 663 900 ----------- At constant 1960 values /I--------- Sub-total 275 236 248 344 279 310 Total food 366 298 316 493 337 389 Total expenditures 614 392 450 1,102 530 720 /I Assuming the same relative product values in 1970-71 as in 1959-60 Source: Ministere de l'Economie Nationale, La Consommation et les Depenses des Menages Marocains Musulmans (resultants de l'enguete 1959-60), Aout 1961; Secretariat d'Etat au Plan et au Developpement Regional, La Consommation et les Depenses des Menages au Maroc, (Avril 1970- Avril 1971), Vol. IV, Alimentation et Nutrition. 1.13 Without more recent data than the 1970-71 Household Consumption Survey it is estimated that each 1% increase in total household expenditures is accompanied by approximately a 0.5% increase in spending for the seven most important foods. This is a relatively high elasticity, which would merit more extensive and frequent study than the 1959-60 and 1970-71 House- hold Consumption Surveys. As expected, the demand elasticity is lower for urban consumers (0.4) than the rural population (0.6), undoubtedly because of lower levels of living and the higher level of subsistence consumption implicit in the rural data. The relatively high level of consumption of a few major food items is shown above, with cereals, meat, sugar, oils, milk, butter and tea and coffee accounting for 80% of average food expenditures, - 9 - and 43% of household spending in 1971. As expected, urban areas are in a more favorable position with 70% spent on the seven staple commodities, compared with 83% for the rural population, whose consumption level was less than one- half the urban level. As the data on quantity consumed per person indicates, rural consumption consists less of high-value goods such as meat, edible oils,. and processed cereal products although, as illustrated by changes in the value and volume of per capita rural milk consumption, on-farm consumption probably explains the higher volume consumed relative to household spending for milk. The prospects that a share of higher real incomes in both urban and rural areas will be spent on a different food "basket" than in the past implies a gradual reduction in some commodities, e.g. durum wheat and barley, and a more rapid increase in others such as meat, milk, edible oils, butter. The potential repercussions on production and imports are discussed in the next section of this report. ESTIMATED PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF MAJOR FOODS (kg per person) 1959-60 1970-71 Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Average Cereals /1 187.0 312.0 279.0 159.0 245.0 216.4 Milk /2 15.4 11.6 14.0 27.7 27.3 27.4 Sugar 28.4 36.8 34.7 26.5 31.2 29.7 Potatoes 29.8 14.2 18.3 24.2 17.0 19.5 Olive oil 4.8 0.2 5.8 2.3 6.3 5.0 Vegetable oil 6.2 1.5 2.6 9.4 3.3 5.3 Meat 16.6 8.9 10.9 20.4 13.0 15.5 Poultry 1.6 1.3 1.4 3.6 1.7 2.3 Fresh fish 4.0 2.3 3.1 6.8 1.7 3.4 Pulses 9.7 9.7 9.6 0.4 4.7 4.9 Butter 1.3 1.4 1.4 4.1 1.7 2.5 Tea - - - 1.0 1.4 1.3 Coffee - - - 1.3 0.8 1.0 Total Consumption Expenditures per person /3 614.0 392.0 450.0 1,102.0 530.0 720.0 Food only 366.0 298.9 316.0 493.0 337.0 389.0 /1 Expressed in grain equivalent. /2 Excludes butter and cheese. /3 At constant 1960 values. Source: Secretariat d'Etat au Plan et au Developpement Regional, La Consommation et les Depenses des Menages au Maroc (Avril 1970- Avril 1971), Vol. IV, Alimentation et Nutrition. - 10 - Income Levels and Rural Poverty 1.14 The increase in real household expenditures experienced during the 1960 period could be interpreted as an increase in real income and, possibly, an improvement in income distribution. As noted in para 1.10 real income seem to have increased in urban areas, but there is little evidence that this occurred in the rural sector. While income distribution could have improved in urban areas, such improvement in agriculture would have been confined geographically to areas which benefited from direct government intervention by means such as investment, credit, land distribution, and favorable pricing. The cumulative increase in agricultural GDP during the last 14 years (1960-61/ 1974-75), at constant 1960 prices, is estimated at DH 1.1 billion, while the agricultural labor force was augmented by some 400,000 persons and rural popu- lation increased by about 2.5 million. Though value added per capita could have risen, GDP data (para 1.10) strongly suggest that in rural areas it increased slightly (1.6% annually) from 1959-60 to 1970-71, and probably declined since 1971. 1.15 The only official source of data which sheds light on income dis- tribution and rural poverty in Morocco is the Household Consumption Survey of 1970-71. With mean national per capita household expenditures of DH 900 in 1970-71, subsistence was estimated at DH 565, equivalent to the annual consumption expenditure per capita in rural laborers' households. For ap- proximately two-thirds of the rural population per capita expenditures were below the national average of DH 900, and, for at least 42% of the rural population, below the subsistence level of DH 565. The impression gained for the performance of the agricultural sector in recent years is that the 1970-71 situation can be extrapolated to 1976 when the rural population was approximately 11 million. Thus, a tentative estimate would place the number of "rural poor", i.e. those below the mean national consumption level, at about 7.3 million, of which 4.6 million live below the subsis- tence level. C. Demand and Supply Trends for Major Commodities 1.16 According to consumption trends of recent years relative to total population, urbanization and changing consumer tastes, it appears that Morocco faces an increasing gap between production and utilization for certain com- modities which have also been imported, i.e. bread wheat, vegetable oils, sugar, and milk. For commodities with a relatively inelastic demand, e.g. durum wheat, barley and maize, production will probably continue to supply domestic demand. Supply of commodities with a positive demand relative to income, such as sugar, vegetable oils, meat, milk and dairy products, could be more dependent on imports than in the past if production does not expand to satisfy human consumption needs. - 11 - Cereals 1.17 Morocco has one of the highest levels of per capita cereal consump- tion in the world. This was confirmed by both household consumption surveys and comparisons of production with trade data for the last 25 years. Cereals are utilized for three major purposes: direct human consumption, animal feed, and others which include, inter alia, seed, industrial processing, and waste. The proportion of each of the major cereals used for purposes other than direct human consumption is not known. It seems considerable and varies from year to year and between one cereal and another. According to the 1970-71 Household Consumption Survey and total utilization data for the same years human consumption represented approximately 70% of total bread wheat supply, 86% of durum wheat, 43% of barley and 65% of corn. For bread wheat, taking into account the estimated annual increase of 1.7% per capita for human con- sumption, per capita consumption has fluctuated from a low of 51% of total supply in 1975 to 82% in 1972, with the average for the last five years at approximately 61% of supply. Consequently, the difference between human consumption and total utilization must be taken into account in projecting future requirements. TOTAL AND PER CAPITA UTILIZATION AND CONSUMPTION OF MAJOR CEREALS Utilization Human Consumption Total Per Capita Total Per Capita Cereals ('000 tons) (kg) ('000 tons) /1 (kg) Bread wheat 984 64 689 45 Durum wheat 1,530 100 1,316 86 Barley 2,262 148 964 63 Maize 355 23 230 15 Total 5,131 335 3,199 209 /l Estimated by multiplying per capita human consumption by average popu- lation for 1970-71 (15.3 million). Source: Tables 4.0 and 4.2. 1.18 For the last 15 years, Morocco has ceased to be a net exporter of major cereals and now depends heavily on imported bread wheat. Recent in- dications that per capita cereal consumption may be decreasing are deceptive because they conceal important shifts in the composition of total consumption with considerable uncertainty as to utilization for purposes other than human consumption. Since the mid-1960's, soft wheat imports have risen to I million tons, or 71% of requirements in 1974-75. Total consumption of soft wheat is clearly on the rise, while it seems to have reached a peak for durum wheat and is evidently declining for barley and maize, as shown below. Even though requirements for durum wheat and barley are on a downward course, areas planted - 12 - have not yet shifted to meet consumption needs. Total area in cereals de- creased from an average of 4 million ha in 1951-55 to 3.6 million in 1961-65, and recovered to 4.3 million ha during 1971-75, due to larger areas planted in durum wheat and barley. The use of fertilizers and improved varieties of wheat and barley raised average yields in the late 1960's, but they have remained at the same level during 1971-75. SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION OF MAJOR CEREALS 1949-50' 1959-60 1969-70 1974-75 Average Average Average Average Bread Wheat Area ('000 ha) 294 436 446 490 Yield (tons/ha) .67 .64 .81 .86 Production ('000 tons) 197 279 376 422 Imports ('000 tons) 98 45 404 1,040 Exports ('000 tons) 18 - - - Domestic supply ('000 tons) 277 324 779 1,462 Per capita utilization (Kg) 30.9 28 52 87 Durum Wheat Area ('000 ha) 859 1,248 1,452 1,314 Yield (tons/ha) .58 .59 ..91 .98 Production ('000 tons) 500 732 1,321 1,292 Exports ('000 tons) 16 102 1 - Domestic supply ('000 tons) 484 630 1,320 1,292 Per capita utilization (kg) 54 55 88 77 Barley Area ('000 ha) 1,897 1,775 1,963 1,896 Yield (tons/ha) .64 .64 1.0 1.05 Production ('000 tons) 1,219 1,138 2,078 1,986 Exports ('000 tons) 295 43 101 - Domestic supply ('000 tons) 924 1,095 2,161 1,986 Per capita utilization (kg) 103 95 145 118 Maize Area ('000 ha) 512 505 488 470 Yield (tons/ha) .51 .79 .79 .81 Production ('000 tons) 263 397 384 381 Exports ('000 tons) 104 75 17 - Domestic Supply ('000 tons) 159 322 367 381 Per capita utilization (kg) 17.7 28 24.6 22.8 Source: OCICL, L'Office Cherifien Interprofessional des Cereales: Son role dans l'economie marocaine (March 1973) and Tables 7.1 and 7.2. - 13 - Bread (Soft) Wheat 1.19 It appears that soft wheat is becoming increasingly important in the national diet relative to durum wheat which has always been the staple cereal. As a result of urbanization and a concurrent rise in income, per capita requirements seem to have increased from approximately 28 kg in 1959-60 to 87 kg in 1974-75. During the last 30 years the area planted in bread wheat exceeded 600,000 ha only in 1954 and 1955, and rarely exceeded 500,000 ha during the last decade. Yields have increased in spurts and have remained at plateau of about 10 Qx/ha during the last 6 years. Consequently, it can only be assumed that the long-term historical production trend will continue, thereby enabling Morocco to produce 540,000 tons in 1980 and some 600,000 tons in 1985. These levels would represent increases of 80,000 and 120,000 tons, respectively, over the 1971-75 yearly average. 1.20 Total bread wheat requirements are expected to rise from an average of 1.5 million tons in 1974-75 to 1.9 million in 1980 and 2.5 million tons in 1985. These estimates are based on calculated human consumption, plus the need for seed and other uses, including waste. 1/ They could be as much as 200,000 tons less for each period than the preceding figures, depending on whether estimates are based on regression equations of human consumption alone or of total utilization. It is expected, therefore, that the supply of bread wheat will be increasingly depended on imports. In the absence of techno- logical change and expansion in area planted, bread wheat imports would rise from approximately 1 million tons in 1974-75 to 1.4 million in 1980 and even- tually 1.9 million tons in 1985. The increase of 300,000 tons in 1980 and 600,000 tons in 1985 over the 1974-75 level, would add to the import bill, at 1974-75 prices, approximately DH 204 million in 1985. Of course, dramatic increases in yields, prices, and expansion in area could make it possible to surpass the projected 600,000-tons yearly average production. Durum Wheat 1.21 Demand for durum wheat appears to be slackening in relative terms because, as indicated above, urbanization is stimulating a shift in consump- tion toward bread wheat. However, an increase in bread wheat consumption will not result in a proportional reduction in durum wheat because the diet of the rural population will for some time continue to consist of a large amount of durum. Thus, even though short term factors indicate that durum wheat requirements could decline to 1 million tons annually after 1985, the decline will be held in check by the growing rural population. On the other hand, a continuation of the upward trend begun in the 1960's, which would raise average annual output and utilization to 1.8 million tons in 1985, is also improbable. Consequently, Morocco can remain self-sufficient in durum wheat and, if yields can be raised, could even convert some areas to soft wheat. 1/ Human consumption was calculated from cross sectional data (by income group) in the 1970-71 Household Consumption Survey. - 14 - Barley 1.22 Excluding its use as animal feed and for other purposes, human consumption of barley is minimal outside rural areas (92 kg per person vs. 5 kg in urban areas). Even though the decline in demand for barley will be moderated by its use for animal feed, it is unlikely that the upward trend of the last two decades will continue. Production and utilization will level off at 1.2 million tons after 1980. Maize 1.23 Total production and utilization of maize has generally been stable during the last twenty years, although human consumption is declining. Given the uncertainty that accompanies the livestock feed industry, the profitability of maize relative to other grains, e.g., sorghum, is open to question. As dis- cussed later it is evident, however, that maize production is marginal, except in the small area planted with hybrid varieties. The case for expanding the use of hybrids is not convincing, in view of the complexity of these problems and climatic, cultural and economic constraints. Instead, additional maize requirements might best be satisfied by substituting sorghum where possible. Consequently, the historical trend holding maize production and utilization at 400-425,000 tons appears realistic. Edible Vegetable Oils 1.24 As the displacement of olive oil with vegetable oil proceeded, annual per capita consumption of the latter doubled between 1959-60 and 1970-71. Total consumption rose from an estimated 88,000 tons of vegetable oil in 1965 to approximately 175,000 tons in 1975 while total olive oil consumption remained about the same, thereby reflecting a decrease in per capita utilization. The change is reflected in the rise in the volume of imports during that period. During the last ten years, edible oil consump- tion has been increasing on an average of 8.5% annually, with imports assuming nearly 90% of the increase. Thus, during the last five years the imports of oil and oilseed soared from the equivalent of 91,000 tons of edible oil to 160,000 tons, while domestic supply rose from approximately 6,000 to 15,000 tons. There seems to be no way to reverse this trend in the near future. As imports will continue to represent 90% of total utilization, they are conservatively estimated at 220,000 tons in 1980 and 265,000 tons in 1985. 1.25 An increase in domestic production would require the diversion of land from other crops, mainly cereals, pulses, vegetables or even sugar beets, which does not seem likely in the short and medium term. Even when Morocco's program of investment in irrigation is completed, it is tentatively planned that only 3,000 ha will be planted in oil seeds. Cotton area will, at the most, double from 17,000 to 34,000 ha thereby producing another 5,000-6,000 tons of oil. Consequenty, the Government's hope, shown below, to satisfy 70% of the 1980 demand by means of expanding the area planted with oilseeds is unrealistic. To increase the proportion of edible oil consumed from domestic production, - 15 - a considerable effort will be needed to expand area planted in both rainfed and irrigated lands from the 58,000 ha (including cotton) in 1975. However, the area contemplated below cannot be achieved in the foreseeable future. AREA AND YIELDS CONTEMPLATED BY MOROCCO TO ACHIEVE - PARTIAL SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN EDIBLE OILS Oil Area Yield Volume Equivalent ('000 ha) (Q/ha) ('000 tons) ('000 tons) Sunflower (rainfed) 228 15 332.0 132.8 Sunflower (irrigated) 14 22 30.0 12.3 Rapeseed 20 15 30.0 11.4 Sesame 10 18 18.0 5.4 Soybean 10 18 18.0. 3.6 Peanuts 10 15 7.5 3.1 Cotton 30 10 30.0 6.0 Source: Maroc: Situation et Perspectives de Developpement de la Culture Cotoniere (FAO, 1975) Sugar 1.26 One of the major accomplishments of Morocco during the last 15 years was the technologically successful introduction of sugar beets to substitute for mounting levels of sugar imports in the early 1960's. Sugar beet produc- tion increased from an.average of 143,000 to 1.8 million tons between 1961-65 and 1974-75, while area planted in beets expanded from 7,000 to 62,000 ha. As a result, imports, which represented 98% of total sugar requirements, now account for only 50%, even though total utilization since 1965 has risen from 380,000 tons to 536,000 tons of sugar. 1.27 As in the case of cereals, Morocco has one of the highest per capital levels of sugar consumption in the world. Indication that it is declining by 1.4% annually, from an average of 34.7 kg/person in 1959-60 to 29.7 kg in 1970-71, is contradicted by the annual increase of 3.5% in aggregate sugar utilization since 1965. Based on cross-sectional data of the 1970-71 House- hold Consumption Survey, a 1% increase in household expenditures generates a .64% increase in sugar consumption. This relatively high elasticity is illustrated by per capita consumption which range from 38.3 kg/year to 51 kg/year, as total per capita expenditures exceed DH 732/year for the upper third of the population. The effect of income on sugar consumption is much more pronounced in rural areas, where the upper third of the population consumed from 43 kg/year to 73.8 kg per capita. Therefore, production and utilization for 1980 and 1985 are estimated to increase on the basis of the trend set in 1965-75. With domestic production well underway, it is expected to reach 430,000 and 560,000 tons of sugar in 1980 and 1986, respectively, while imports might not exceed the 1974-75 average of 275,000 tons if produc- tion continues to increase. - 16 - SUGAR BEET PRODUCTION UNDER IRRIGATED AND RAINFED CONDITIONS, 1974-75 Area Yield Output (ha) (tons/ha) ('000 tons) Irrigated Moulouya 4,112 29.6 122.1 Doukkala 6,051 41.8 252.6 Haouz 490 25.8 12.2 Tadla 21,700 40.2 873.2 Sub-total 32,353 38.9 1,260.6 Rainfed Gharb 29,926 17.8 531.2 Total 62,178 28.8 1,791.8 Source: MARA, Rapport sur l'Execution du Plan Quinquennal 1973-77. 1.28 To increase its level of self-sufficiency above the 50% achieved during the last two years, Morocco will have to expand net area harvested in either beets or cane, or both, by 26,000 ha in 1980 and 48,000 ha by 1985, at yields of 6,000 kg of raw sugar/ha from either cane or beets. 1/ Plans are underway to achieve greater self-sufficiency with the ultimate objective of 48,000 ha of beet and 116,000 ha of cane, both under irrigation. A net increase of 17,000 ha of sugar beets under irrigation is possible in the short and medium-term. Whether sugar cane production can bring Morocco nearer to self-sufficiency by 1985 is uncertain. The hope expressed by the authorities to eventually cultivate 116,000 ha of sugar cane under irrigation is far from fulfillment. Sugar cane was only recently introduced, and only 4,400 ha were planted in 1975 after several years of trials. Problems have occurred due to heavy frosts and the scarcity of manual labor to work in the cane fields. Consequently, short and medium-term projections rely mainly on sugar beets, which have proven their technical feasibility, and a modest area planted in cane to fill the gap in the mid-1980's. Milk and Butter 1.29 Milk and butter production and imports are significant because but- ter has historically accounted for 50% of the country's total.milk utilization and 78% of the volume of dairy products imported, though a slightly smaller proportion in value. Consumption of milk and butter nearly doubled during the 1/ Equivalent to 40 tons of beets or 60 tons of cane per irrigated ha. - 17 - 1959-60/1970-71 period, from an equivalent of 49 kg to 90 kg of milk per person. There are no signs that total milk production has increased since 1969, and total butter output is reported to have remained at a constant 8,500' tons annually since 1963. By the mid-1960's milk production could not keep up with demand and imports, which had filled the supply gap, soared. From 1965 to 1970 butter imports increased at the annual rate of 11% or the same as consumption. At that juncture the Government severely restricted butter imports, reducing them by almost two-thirds. Butter consumption is reported to have dropped by nearly 50% in 1972, but has returned to an upward trend of 9.8% annually, helped partly by the import subsidy begun in 1975. 1.30 With these uncertainties it is difficult to estimate future trends in demand for milk and its derivatives, except by inferring the existence of a strong latent demand. Assuming no change in prices and import policies, total milk utilization is expected to rise from some 880,000 tons in 1974 to 1 million in 1980 and 1.3 million tons in 1985. This is approximately the same as the Plan Laitier. Because of the continued limitation on Morocco's milk production capacity, imports could increase from 40 to 53% of total utilization. 1.31 The aim of self-sufficency in milk and dairy products by the year 2000 would require the production of some 2.5 million tons of milk. This is about five times the present output capacity, and would require a 6.7% annual growth rate of milk output for the next 24 years. It would imply replacing or upgrading the existing herd of 1.7 million cows with at least I million head producing an average of 2,500 kg of milk annually, rather than the present average of 500 kg per lactating cow. Dairy processing capacity, which is presently underutilized at 180,000 tons annually, would have to be increased by. a factor of perhaps 10. Short of self-sufficiency, a level of remunerative productive efficiency by milk producers and dairy plants in Morocco is a more achievable objective. This is discussed in a subsequent section. Meat 1.32 Historically, Morocco has been self-sufficient in meat and, until 1976, no significant amounts of it were imported. However, modest amounts were imported recently in response to shortages in urban areas. In the ab- sence of import restrictions, rising incomes and a larger proportion of the population living in urban areas will probably result in higher meat consump- tion. During the 1959-60/1970-71 period, annual meat consumption, including poultry, increased from 12.3 kg to about 18 kg per person (para 1.13). On the basis of the increase in population alone and assuming no change in prices or consumption per person, meat consumption in 1980 and 1985 would amount to 375,000 and 450,000 tons, respectively. The latter is roughly twice the 1975 volume of meat production in Morocco shown in Table 2.0. - 18 - ESTIMATED MEAT CONSUMPTION Hypothesis I /1 Hypothesis II /2 Per capita (---'000 tons---) (---'000 tons---) (kg) 1975 1980 1985 1975 1980 1985 Beef & lamb 277 326 388 307 387 485 Urban 20.4 137 175 224 146 198 263 Rural 13.0 141 151 164 161 189 222 Poultry 42 50 60 49 65 87 Urban 3.6 23 30 39 29 42 60 Rural 1.7 18 20 21 20 23 27 Total 319 376 448 356 452 572 Urban 24.0 160 205 263 175 240 323 Rural 15.7 159 171 185 181 212 249 /1 Assuming no change in consumption per person from the 1970-71 consumption survey, and no change in relative prices. /2 Assuming continuation of the trend set in 1959-60/1970-71, with rising total expenditures per person, and no change in relative prices. Source: IBRD mission estimates. 1.33 If the trend set during the 1960's continues into the 1970's and 1980's the level of consumption in 1980 could reach some 450,000 tons in 1980 and 572,000 tons in 1985. This latter assumption does not seem plausi- ble because the implicit increases in consumer expenditures of the 1960's cannot be expected to continue and recent prices increases may have had a hitherto unknown restrictive effect on consumption. Another unlikely hypo- thesis, only roughly calculated for lack of sufficient historical data on the relationship of demand vis-a-vis prices, is a greater increase in per capita consumption as a result of various factors: demographic trends, a steady rise in income, no change in prices and unrestricted imports to fill the gap between domestic production and demand. A rough estimate of such eventuality is that at urban expenditure levels of DH 2,000 (at constant 1960 prices) per person, and DH 1,000 in rural areas, meat consumption would rise to 40.2 kg and 30 kg per person, respectively. In 1985, this would mean total meat consumption on the order of 820,000 tons, or nearly four times the 1975 production. 1.34 The more likely and desirable outcome between now and 1985 is that the increase in meat consumption of the 1960's and early 1970's will taper off if prices are allowed to rise according to the scarcity of domestic production and if unpopular import restrictions are imposed. Nevertheless, if resort to large scale meat imports is to be avoided, or at least postponed, domestic meat production needs to increase at a rate greater than during 1961-65/1971- 75. The peak volume of meat output achieved during the last decade, about - 19 - 220,000 tons in 1975, is insufficient to satisfy consumer demand. A continua- tion of the trend in production would result in meat output of about 245,000 tons in 1980 and 273,000 tons in 1985. Therefore, the prospects can only be ascertained in a most general sense: (a) the volume of domestic production will be insufficient to satisfy consumer demand, except for poultry; (b) conservatively estimated imports of beef and lamb could theoretically reach 130,000 tons annually in 1980 and 175,000 tons annually by 1985; (c) con- tinued restrictions on imports, which were relaxed in 1976, would certainly depress consumption, but are advisable, together with compensatory measures to stimulate production, including higher prices paid to beef and lamb producers. Producers would then make the necessary adjustments in response to better incentives by producing heavier animals and increasing the offtake of both cattle and sheep. The adjustment would take approximately two years for lamb and 3-5 years for beef. Rice 1.35 Rice is not widely consumed in Morocco. This is reflected in its relatively low level of production among major crops. Human consumption was reported at 1.2 kg per person annually in 1970-71, or an annual requirement of 18,000 tons of milled rice. This was less than the equivalent domestic production in paddy rice, which provided a small exportable surplus. However-, erratic paddy yields (3-4 tons/ha) and small quantities do not make Moroccan rice competitive in international trade. Therefore, production is determined by inventories and fluctuates widely from one period to another, as consump- tion remains virtually stationary. Notwithstanding long-range plans to expand rice area, this would not be necessary for domestic consumption unless the 1990 population reaches an average consumption level of 2 kg annually. Pulses 1.36 The importance of pulses, mainly broad beans, chickpeas, peas and lentils, lies in the large area which they occupy among all crops, and their contribution to exports. An average of 512,000 ha are planted in pulses, frequently in rotation with cereals, and production ranges from 336 to 700,000 tons annually. Domestic consumption is minimal and declining from 9.6 kg in 1959-60 to 5 kg/person annually reported for 1975. Consequently, except for plant disease, no supply problems are anticipated and exports should continue as in the past. - 20 - II. STRUCTURE OF AGRICULTURE A. Source of Agricultural Production 2.01 Although Morocco's agriculture is widely diversified, it is domi- nated by cereal production and livestock. Except for small amounts of cotton, wool, other fibers and tobacco, agricultural production consists entirely of food, a large proportion of which is consumed domestically. Cereals account for 40% of the total agricultural production and livestock products 27%. The importance of cereals is further underscored because they are the main source of livelihood for some 1.5 million Moroccan farmers, occupy 80% of the culti- vable land (including fallow) and account for 55% of the total value of crop production. Livestock is also a source of livelihood for 950,000 rural families; in addition to the complementary use of crop lands, it occupies probably 15 million ha, or most of the usable land. The production of a second group of crops -- pulses, sugar beets, cotton, citrus, tomatoes and grapes -- is the modern element of Moroccan agriculture. Together they account for one-third of the total value of agricultural production, though only about 20-25% of the cultivated land (20% of fallow is included in the total). 2.02 Increases in agricultural production since the early 1960's can be traced mainly to selected crops of the "modern" sector through expansion of area planted and, to a lesser extent, higher yields. For pulses, sugar beets and cotton, which have increased in area from 400,000 to 645,000 ha, their joint contribution to total agricultural output since the early 1960's has risen in constant terms from DH 91 million to DH 265 million. Tomato area and production doubled, while yields of major fruit crops -- citrus, olives and grapes -- declined sharply after 1970. 2.03 Moroccan agriculture is generally carried out under semi-arid con- ditions. Sparse rainfall is the norm rather than the exception for most of the rangeland and the 7.4 million ha in crops. Drought years such as 1973 and 1975 -- when rainfall came well after the planting season and in insufficient quantity -- occur two or three times per decade. On the other hand, years of abundant rainfall are rare, one per decade at best. Irrigated land, which represents only 11% of the crop area, is relatively immune from variations in rainfall, although cold winter temperatures may kill a crop, such as the frost in 1976 which virtually ruined the sugar cane in the Gharb. Under the forego- ing conditions land use intensity is, on the average, .74 in rainfed and only 1.2 in irrigated areas. - 21 - LAND IN MAJOR CROPS IN 1974-75 ('000 ha) Total Total Area % Irrigated Non-Irr. Grains 4,376 57 203 4,173 Pulses 569 7 - 569 Sugar beets & cane 66 1 37 29 Cotton 17 - 17 - Forage 104 1 60 44 Vegetables 104 1 82 22 Others 49 1 1 48 Fallow 1,785 23 - 1,785 Annual crops 7,070 (93) 400 6,670 Fruit 570 7 425 145 Total crops & fruits 7,640 /1 100 825 /2 6_800 100% 11% 89% 11 Discrepancies due to rounding. /2 Includes double cropping and areas planted in association with fruit trees. Cropping intensity can be inferred from Table 6.1. Source: Table 6.1. 2.04 From the above table and Table 6.4 it is clear that most crops are produced in non-irrigated areas, including about one-half of the area in sugar beets. Non-irrigated crops account for 89% of the crop area, and represent about 76% of the gross value of production. ORIGIN OF GROSS VALUE OF CROP PRODUCTION /1 Estimated Value (Million DH) Relative share (%) Period All Crops Non-Irr. Irrig. Non-Irrigated Irrigated 1961-65 1,644 1,262 382.0 77 23 1966-70 2,054 1,559 495.0 76 24 1971-75 2,277 1,683 544.0 76 24 /I Including tree crops. Source: Table 6.4. - 22 - 2.05 The increases in the production of major crops achieved since 1961-65 can be attributed in general as much to the expansion of area as to higher yields. Cotton and sugar beets, which represent less than 2% of the area in crops harvested, benefited from a larger area under irrigation and the intensive application of fertilizer to achieve major gains in yields. Cereals, pulses and sunflower, which represent 94% of the annual crops harvested, benefited more from larger areas than from higher yields. INDICES OF AREA, YIELDS AND VOLUME FOR MAJOR CROPS IN 1971-75 (1961-65 = 100) Sugar Grains /1 Pulses Sunflower Beets Cotton Area 121 131 324 766 142 Yields 119 144 107 151 250 Volume 144 188 342 1,159 346 n.d. = no data /1 Excluding canary grass. Source: Tables 7.0 - 7.1. 2.06 After increasing at the rate of 2% annually during the 1960's, live- stock production slowed to 1.4% since 1970. Milk production stagnated at its 1968-69 level during the last 6 years. Meat production remained at 175-180,000 tons from the mid-1960's until 1974, when it rose to 210,000 tons, and 1975 with 220,000 tons. Overall, livestock productivity has apparently declined for beef and dairy cattle, as well as sheep. Whatever increases in production of meat and milk occurred during the last 5 years are attributed to a larger number of animals rather than to gains in productivity. In fact, if the reported gains in livestock production, especially milk, occurred in irrigated areas, productivity in rainfed areas must have declined sharply. The total number of animals increased from 22.3 million, or roughly 4 million GAU (Gross Animal Unit) to its present total of 25 million, or 6 million GAU, concurrently with a gradual deterioration of grazing lands. GROUTH IN NUMBER OF MAJOR LIVESTOCK (Million Head) 1947 1970 1974 Cattle 2.2 3.6 4.0 Sheep 11.2 14.5 15.1 Goats 8.7 7.9 6.3 Camels .2 .2 .1 Total GAU equivalent 6.0 (est) Source: Table 9.1. - 23 - B. Land Use 2.07 Land and water resources available for agriculture constitute the major physical limitations to agricultural development in Morocco. Not much more than 18 million ha, out of a total area of 50 million in the entire country in 1974, can be considered the land resource base of the agricultural sector. Cultivable land represents only 15% of the total land area, forests, 10%, and range covers approximately 22%. Not all the 7.4 million ha of cul- tivable land is in crops each year. I/ With an average of 1.8 million ha in fallow, the cultivated land of Morocco is thus a modest area, or I ha for every three inhabitants. As population increases to 24 million by 1990 each ha will have to support 4 Moroccans. Water is sufficient for the permanent and seasonal irrigation of 1.4 million ha, although not more than 750,000 ha were irrigated in 1975. LAND AVAILABILITY AND UTILIZATION ('000 ha) (percent) Total Area 50,000 100 Cultivable 7,400 15 - Cultivated (5,600) (11) - Fallow (1,800) ( 4) Forest 5,200 10 Range, mountains and desert 37,400 75 - Range (11,000) (22) 2.08 The widely divergent reports given on land use by different Govern- ment institutions leave room for a wider range of error and over-reporting, especially for cereal and tree crops, mainly olives, and the extent of fallow areas. Irrespective of these discrepancies, it is fairly certain that 93% of the arable land, including the fallow (25%), is planted in annual crops, and that cereal grains consistently represent about 83% of the annual crop area, followed by pulses (11%), and the remainder consists of industrial crops (beets, cotton and oilseeds), forage and vegetables. 2.09 The gradual expansion of permanent irrigation during the last 15 years has led to the concurrent introduction of about 50,000 ha of cotton and sugar beets and the intensification of vegetable and fruit production. During the last 20-30 years, some 2 million ha of the better natural grazing range have been shifted into crop production, mainly barley, where rainfall 1/ The area in farms is probably less than 7.6 million ha, according to preliminary results of the 1973 agricultural census. Some 6 million ha are reported in nearly 1.9 million agricultural properties. The unac- counted 1.6 million ha is probably land temporarily in the eminent domain of the state, including soil conservation districts, and land that was not included in the census because of drought or shifting cultivation. - 24 - approaches 200 mm annually. This phenomenon, due to the increasing rural population in the range areas and the demand for feed stimulated by more numerous and larger flocks of sheep and goats, has merely forced the use of otherwise marginal land for grazing. It may explain the declining produc- tivity of cattle and sheep. 2.10 Land use in non-irrigated agriculture naturally is less intensive than under irrigated conditions because of the absence of conditions for double-cropping and the system of rotation which includes a fallow season every 2 or 3 years. Where temperatures, rainfalls and natural soil fertility permit, rotation is desigied around the dominant crop, usually wheat or barley. On deep, fertile soil with 400 mm or more of annual rainfall, wheat normally leads the rotation, and fallow periods are being replaced by alternate crops like pulses or oilseeds. On thin, poorer soils receiving less than 350 mm/ year, barley is the principal crop and fallow is more frequent. 2.11 With all but 200,000 ha of the 5 million ha of grain, pulses and oilseed crops harvested under rainfed conditions, fallow in the crop rotation is widespread. Fallow may assume greater importance in the future than in the past because it need not be simply a non-productive period. Clean fallow was frequently carried out prior to the increase in livestock numbers during the past ten years. However, the practice has practically disappeared, having been replaced by grazing the stubble to the ground after the harvest and then continuing grazing on whatever spontaneous vegetation develops following the rainy season. Hence, soil preparation for the next grain crop now frequently begins only after the weeds have matured and set seed. Grazing fallow land not only encourages the growth and multiplication of weeds but creates soil compaction problems as well. On deep soils with good water-holding capacity, however, a clean fallow not only greatly reduce weeds in the succeeding cereal crop, but can also build up moisture reserves for the crop year and improve soil tilth, thus contributing to yield stability. The practice of grazing fallow land also reflects the complementarity between crop and livestock production, which is frequent in land-scarce temperate agriculture. However, in Morocco, the association of crops and livestock has become competitive, rather than complementary, due mainly to demographic pressures on land. 2.12 There is virtually no division of labor between crops and livestock, except under the extreme condition of the pre-Saharian steppe, on the one hand, or the rich crop producing areas under irrigation, on the other. Live- stock and crop production take place side by side even in mixed areas such as the Gharb. This has made it possible for livestock production to utilize land more intensively than semi-arid conditions would normally permit. Two systems exist: one relies on the 11 million ha of grazing range of the steppe and 4 million ha of forest range; the other overlaps with crop production by grazing on 1.8 million ha of weed fallow, and 4-5 million ha of crop stubble in non-irrigated areas. Additional forage is also provided by some 104,000 ha of alfalfa and berseem clover. Because of the complementarity of livestock with crop production, a total of nearly 22 million ha is thus available for grazing, rather than the 11 million ha in the steppe and 4 million ha of - 25 - forest range. However, the area available at any one time is substantially less than 22 million ha. Some 3 million of the 11 million ha of range are almost barren of vegetation and access to forest grazing is permitted only during a few months of the year, and crop stubble supplies feed for not more than 2-3 months. Consequently, the 25 million head of cattle, sheep and goats, which is equivalent to 6 million GAU, greatly exceeds the capacity of the permanent range and cultivated forage. C. Land Distribution and Tenure -2.13 The absolute limit on agricultural land, its present use and the systems of tenure, deprive Morocco of using more fully its major means of agricultural production. For at least 1.6 million crop producers and some 500-600,000 herdsmen, land productivity is well below its potential, not only in most irrigated areas, but especially for crop and livestock production in rainfed areas. In non-irrigated areas, labor is grossly underemployed and its productivity is low. Capital is scarce, judging by the small number of tractors (18,000), and the low proportion of farmers (10-15%) who employ fer- tilizer, selected seeds, or credit. Rural savings are generally represented by a small flock of sheep or goats, even though grazing land is insufficient or depleted. 2.14 The complex system of land tenure, which is rooted in the reli- gious, cultural and political history of the country, has been amply studied by Moroccan scholars and government officials. However, specific documenta- tion is still fragmentary, in the absence of a cadastral survey or comprehen- sive agricultural census. Five major types of tenure prevail, with some variations introduced by law or custom, including recent legislation to modernize the existing system. 2.15 The simplest type of ownership is the privately owned, or melk, land, which covers approximately 6 million ha or 48% of the land outside the public domain. For 71% of the area planted it is the most prevalent form of tenure. Habous lands, covering some 100,000 ha, are assigned to Islamic religious organizations for which they represent a source of revenue. Approximately 270,000 ha of Guich land is really State owned but de facto granted in perpetuity to veterans or others as rewards for service to the State. The fourth type is collectively occupied land (bled Jemaa), predating the previous types. It originated in tribal customs from earliest Moroccan history, when shifting cultivation and nomadic grazing made it practical and necessary to delimit vast areas along ethnic and/or tribal lines. The exact area of collective lands is not known, but 6 million ha is a generally acknow- ledged figure, of which at least 5 million are rangelands. A fifth category consists of state lands which are either in the "private state domain", about 700,000 ha, or the public domain such as forests, mountains, deserts, etc. 1/ 1/ See also para 2.21. - 26 - LAND TENURE OF AGRICULTURAL LANDS /I ('000 ha) Type of Tenure Crops Range Melk 5,020 1,000 /2 Collective 810 5,000 /2 Guich 270 - Habou 100 Private state domain 700 - Total 6,900 6,000 /1 Excludes public lands such as forests. /2 Estimate. Source: MARA, Statistiques Agricoles (1969-1974) and preliminary data of the 1973 agricultural census ("depouillement de la propriete"). 2.16 Even though the preceding table is incomplete and of doubtful accuracy, it indicates that for purposes of agricultural development the melk and collective lands are dominant, especially for non-irrigated areas and the vast rangelands of the country. This view has been reflected in the concern of the Government in dealing with land tenure since the early 1960's. Irrigated areas of the Offices Regionaux (ORMVA ) are of minor concern in this report in view of the attempts of Government to apply the land statutes to reduce the inequities in land distribution. However, for non-irrigated agri- culture, including the non-irrigated zone within the boundaries of the Offices Regionaux, equity in land distribution is elusive simply because perfectly equitable distribution with viable holdings would theoretically benefit not more than 10% of smallholders and none of the landless population. 2.17 As shown below for arable land, the first impression is that the distribution of land is highly skewed toward concentration among a small number of properties larger than 50 ha, with corresponding fragmentation among a large number of small properties of up to 5 ha. However, the ap- parent minifundia - latifundia pattern is modified by the relative size of large properties, the tenure pattern and fragmentation of small properties into several holdings and the special tenure problem of collective lands. As a whole, large holdings are not vast, as the aggregate area of the 6,500 larger ones does not exceed 600,000 ha. In contrast, the 1.8 million rural properties tabulated in the 1974 census of agriculture, excluding rangelands and the private state domain, consisted of 1.1 million under 10 ha which occupied 2.7 million ha out of a total of 5.9 million ha. Another 643,470 smallholders as a group occupied 868,000 ha of collective arable land. - 27 - DISTRIBUTION OF ARABLE LAND ] Number of Area Size (ha) Owners Percent ('000 ha) Percent Less than 1 .430,500 23.1 231 3.9 1 - 2 224,250 12.0 346 5.8 2 - 5 303,900 16.3 1,010 17.0 5 - 10 154,810 8.3 1,103 18.6 10 - 20 73,640 4.0 1,018 17.2 20 - 50 25,980 1.4 743 12.6 50 - 100 4,700 0.3 311 5.3 100 - 500 1,760 0.1 276 4.7 More than 500 30 - 16 0.2 Collective 643,470 34.5 868 14.7 Total 1,863,040 100.0 5,922 100.0 /1 Excludes Royal holdings and land in private domain of State (SODEA, SOGETA, etc.) and rangelands. Source: MARA, 1974 Agricultural Census. 2.18 Among the private (melk) land the pattern is similar, as shown below. Approximately 1.1 million smallholders (91%) with under 10 ha share 51% of the land. Of these 955,000 have only about 1.6 ha each. The other 100,000 melk properties, with 2.4 million ha, possess sufficient land to absorb labor and improve techniques of production. DISTRIBUTION OF MELK LAND /1 Number of Area Owners Percent ('000 ha) Percent Less than 1 430,500 35.3 190 3.8 1 - 2 224,250 18.4 323 6.0 2 - 5 303,900 24.9 978 19.5 5 - 10 154,800 12.7 1,095 21.8 10 - 20 73,640 6.0 1,023 20.4 20 - 50 25,980 2.1 758 15.1 50 - 100 4,700 0.4 319 6.4 100 - 500 1,760 0.2 315 6.3 More than 500 30 - 18 0.4 Total 1,219,510 100.0 5,019 100.0 /1 Excludes collective and guich lands. Source: MARA. - 28 - 2.19 Land tenure is complicated by systems of tenancy which result in excessive fragmentation. Although the census indicates that leasing and share-cropping involves only some 740,000 ha, it does show that the 1.2 million melk properties consists of approximately 9.2 million holdings. The fragmentation is pronounced among properties smaller than 10 ha, which are further subdivided into 8.2 million parcels among heirs and for leasing or sharecropping. Large holdings are also subdivided into numerous parcels. Thus 650,000 ha in 6,500 properties larger than 50 ha are composed of some 290,000 parcels. The parcels are small, of course, with a mean size of 0.5 ha, the non-irrigated area of the Offices Regionaux (ORMVA), especially the Gharb and Haouz where land consolidation is carried out concurrently with the installation of irrigation networks. The Gharb, for example, has some 35-40,000 smallholders and landless families within its 240,000 ha peri- meters, two-thirds of whom farm without irrigation. The extent of absentee ownership, leasing and sharecropping was not reported by the census. It is estimated to -be on the order of 1 million ha. 2.20 Collective lands illustrate a type of tenure which has become anachronistic, as the originally stable system has been overtaken by economic and demographic changes. Since 1919 collective lands have been placed under the tutelage of the Ministry of the Interior to preserve their inalienable character, but problems have arisen within the collectivities. For crop production the collective area enumerated in 1973, 605,000 ha, is mostly in irrigation districts where holdings have become de facto private or organized into cooperatives. However, for 6 million ha of rangelands, the question is more intractable, because the former practice of periodic allotment of land in usufruct to members of the collective who owned assets such as livestock or other capital has virtually ceased. Formerly, those without capital leased -their land right annually to other members of the collective. However, with the end of periodic land allotments, the more affluent members of the collec- tive have assumed permanent rights, although many emigrated from the collec- tive to acquire melk land elsewhere. Only small plots and common grazing areas remain to support an increasing population and expanding flocks of sheep and goats. 2.21 State land merits serious attention, because out of the estimated 7.2 million ha, some 700,000 are in the "private domain of the state", while the rest consists of forests, conservation districts, etc. The concept of "private state domain" is legally important because it is an indispensable step in the transfer of property when Government exercises eminent domain. Most of the 700,000 ha were obtained by expropriation of foreign owned lands and through the exercise of eminent domain in irrigated areas and conserva- tion districts. Information about their location and use is incomplete, except for those in irrigation perimeters, conservation areas and those managed by public enterprises or institutions such as: SODEA (Societe pour le Developpement Agricole) 70,000 ha; SOGETA (Societe pour la Gestion des Terres Agricoles) 85,000 ha; COMAGRI and agricultural schools, 100,000 ha; the Agricultural Research Department, 30,000 ha; and land leased to private farmers. - 29 - D. Land Reform 2.22 During the last 15 years the Government has taken some legal and political steps to reform the systems of land tenure. The Land Consolida- tion Law (1962), the Agricultural Investment Code (1969) and the Agrarian Reform Law (1972) were enacted to remedy some of the problems created by excessive land fragmentation and to regulate the redistribution of land ex- propriated from foreigners. Except for the expropriation and disposition of 615,000 ha expropriated from foreigners between 1963 and 1973, land tenure has improved only in modern irrigated areas. In most irrigation perimeters, the land statutes have been applied with some effectiveness to reduce fragmentation through consolidation and even trim the size of some of the larger holdings. Most small holdings which were consolidated, including collective lands, are being organized into producers' cooperatives. Outside the ORMVA's efforts are underway at selected locations such as Meknes and Tadert (para 2.26). However, as recognized in the 1973-77 Plan, much remains to be done. 2.23 During the period 1957-60, a total of 182,000 ha was distributed to 11,000 beneficiaries and, by the end of 1975, a cumulative area of 270,000 ha of the expropriated land had been distributed to 18,000 smallholders and formerly landless families. Presumably, the redistribution of 400,000 ha by the end of 1977 contemplated in the 1973-77 Plan-can be accomplished without impairing the holdings of State institutions. Beyond that goal, the amount of land that can be expropriated and redistributed is unknown, and no official plans go beyond the 1977 target. 2.24 The holdings distributed are large relative to the existing pattern of farm size, with a median of about 12 ha, which makes it easy for the bene- ficiaries to achieve the annual income goal of DH 10,000. Membership in a state administered producers' cooperative is compulsory for the beneficiaries. The director of the cooperatives is appointed and paid by the MARA: under the statutes, he ratifies the decisions of the cooperatives before they can be implemented. Their financial affairs are managed by the Caisse Nationale de Credit Agricole (CNCA) and the Direction de Mise en Valeur (DMV), rather than the members and their committees. Although these cooperatives are to become autonomous, their size and the legislation make their eventual autonomy doubt- ful. The 535 existing cooperatives are small by any measure: average mem- bership is 30 with a total of 400-500 ha. In order to reach a volume of business sufficient to meet overhead costs, including management, from their own revenues, build up equity, generate sufficient surplus to finance medium and long term investment, and finance working capital, the cooperatives should be enlarged either by adding new members or through mergers with similar organizations. This would reduce the costs to the Government and eventually enable the cooperatives to reach the degree of autonomy desired. 2.25 The 1973-77 plan also proposed measures to deal with land rents, compulsory land use, a national cadastral survey and an inventory of collec- tive lands. However, the criteria which would be followed for the measures were not specified. Except for efforts to begin the national cadastral - 30 - survey these measures have not yet gone beyond the proposal stage. Irres- pective of the objectives sought by the Government of Morocco, a major accomplishment would be the regulation and eventual elimination of absentee ownership which is conducive to neither investment nor efficiency in the utilization of land or labor, and perpetuates a high level of subsistence agriculture. 2.26 Efforts to resolve land tenure in collective lands have been suc- cessful in small "pilot" areas such as Tadert (irrigation), Middelt (range- lands) and Ain-Beni-Mathar (rangelands and some irrigation). Because the Government is prohibited by the 1919 statute from taking unilateral action to resolve problems of tenure in the collectives, each effort was an elaborate process that took many years before the appropriate ministerial decree could be issued. It involved reconstituting the collective assemblies and councils and obtaining their consent to government intervention and the redefinition of land rights. Moreover, elaborate covenants were needed between the col- lectives, the Provincial Governors (on behalf of the Ministry of the Interior), and the Ministry of Agriculture. Once this is done, however, provisions of the Investment Code make agricultural development possible. E. Land Tenure and Erosion 2.27 One of the consequences of increasing population pressure on marginal land under the prevailing types of tenure is a marked deterioration of the nation's crop land. In certain areas such as the pre-Rif, the piedmont of the Atlas mountains, the Sebou and other watersheds, erosion is pervasive. In areas such as Taza and Oujda, pressure on the land encourages farmers to cul- tivate land which would be better left in natural pasture or forest scrub. Information has recently become available indicating that the area of land now being lost annually through soil erosion may actually exceed the land area brought into production through large-scale irrigation projects. 1/ There has been a tendency in the past to regard soil conservation as a function of the forestry service, with emphasis on tree-planting and terracing of steeply slop- ing land. Yet extensive sheet and incipient gully erosion are widespread over much of the rainfed cereal region and the DMV, responsible in this instance, has no program for effectively dealing with this problem. Though data is in- complete on the total extent of this problem, it is obvious that a more inte- grated approach is called for in order to reconcile the needs of modernizing agriculture in rainfed areas with problems of land use and tenure. As a first step, soil laboratories and conservation functions of the MARA in Rabat should be combined into a single Department, either in Eaux et Forets or the DMV. At the level of the ORMVA's, and the Provincial Services, a land reclamation/soil conservation technician should be assigned to work closely with those respon- sible for land use and tenure. When a long-term program of soil conservation requires that an area be closed to crop production and/or grazing, land from the public domain should be granted in compensation to the affected village or community. 1/ UNDP/FAO Loukkos Project, Personal Communication. - 31 - III. PUBLIC INVESTMENTS AND POLICIES FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 3.01 According to the investment proposals in the 1973-77 Development Plan and reports on their execution, it is evident that the Government of Morocco is attempting to channel an extraordinary amount of capital into agriculture. Almost 21% of total investments during 1973-77 is earmarked for the sector. The amounts are shown below for the last two development plans. COMMITMENTS FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT, 1968-72 AND 1973-77 (Million DH) 1968-73 1973-77 /3 Plan Plan Irrigation /1 1,760 3,501 Rainfed areas /2 475 1,049 Livestock 105 192 Supporting services Agricultural research 52 83 Agricultural education 47 48 Land surveys & management 52 86 Agricultural economics & inspection 39 81 Total 21530 5,040 /1 Including dams but excluding DH 125 million for small and medium size projects for rainfed areas. /2 Includes soil, water and forest conservation and small and medium irrigation. /3 As revised in 1974. Source: 1973-77 Plan (Vol. I) and L'Execution des Deux Premieres Tranches du Plan de Developpement Economique et Social 1973-77 et les Perspective pour la Periode 1975-77. 3.02 The five-year development plan for 1973-77, launched in 1973 upon completion of the 1968-72 plan, initially allocated DH 3 billion to the agricultural sector, plus DH 600 million for dam construction, out of total investment of DH 11.8 billion. The total of DH 3.0 billion excluded outlays for rural development programs such as the DERRO (Developpment Economique & Rural du Rif Oriental) (DH 100.5 million) in the Rif region and the undisbursed commitments carried over from the 1968-72 Plan. Thus, with 24 % of the originally proposed investment outlays, agriculture was assigned a prime role and the goals to be attained were correspondingly far-reaching, as summarized below. - 32 - GENERAL OBJECTIVES OF THE 1973-77 DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR (Million DH at 1969 prices) Growth Rate 1973 1977 (% per annum) All imports 3,821 5,208 8.0 - Agricultural & food 845 371 -19.0 All exports 2,891 4,219 10.0 - Agricultural & food 1,284 1,539 4.6 Total value added 17,981 24,049 7.5 - Agriculture 3,478 4,011 3.6 Source: 1973-77 Plan (Vol. I). 3.03 The above objectives were further translated into specific targets for the sake of internal Plan consistency. The most significant targets were increases in major commodities as follows: - Cereals, 450,000 tons - Pulses, 70,000 tons - Sugar beets, 800,000 tons - Sunflower, 60,000 tons - Milk, 150,000 liters - Beef, by 17% 3.04 To reach the preceding objectives and targets the aggregate of DH 3 billion was allocated among four major lines of activity: - Development of 116,000 ha irrigated areas by the MARA: DH 983 million, plus DH 603 million for dam construc- tion (completion and new undertakings); - Improvement of rainfed agriculture: DH 810 million, including soil, water and forest conservation, with DH 125 million earmarked for small and medium size irrigation (PMH); - Livestock development: DH 206 million (subsequently reduced to DH 175 million); - DH 211 million for supporting services; viz., agricul- tural research and extension, agricultural education, agricultural mapping and surveys, and agricultural statistics and economics. - 33 - Upon updating the Plan in 1974, total investment was raised to an aggregate amount of DH 5.3 billion, or by 72%, in part to meet rising costs (34%) and in part due to higher targets set for some activities, especially in irri- gated and rainfed areas. 3.05 During the first three years of execution of the Plan the real amount of investment achieved in agriculture has been below the level planned. Notwithstanding the Government's will and ability to commit resources to the sector, the rate at which they can actually be invested and the specific pur- poses to which they are applied are below expectations. The gap between resource commitment 1/ and actual expenditures is growing since the 1968-1972 Plan. During the latter period expenditures were, on the average, 80% of resources available, and ranged from 85% for irrigation to 42% for agricul- tural research, with 73% for rainfed areas. During the present Plan, as shown in Table 16.0, expenditures had dropped to an average of 60% of appropriations for the sector (excluding dam construction) as of the end of 1975. For irrig- ation, expenditures had declined to 69% of resources authorized, although obligations generally exceeded appropriations, probably in view of the sub- stantial increases in costs and Plan outlays approved in 1974. For the remainder of the agricultural sector, expenditures had dropped to 50% of funds available, taking into account rising costs and increases in planned outlays. 3.06 . Given the high Plan outlays set for agriculture as a whole during 1973-77, particularly the amounts to be committed or authorized during 1976 and 1977 relative to the levels attained in 1973-75, it is unlikely that the investment objectives of the Plan will be achieved. As shown in the table below the overall amount to be committed during the last two years of the Plan, DH 2,715 million, is DH 400 million more than the corresponding amount for the previous 3 years. Excluding dam construction, the level of expendi- tures which might be achieved in 1976 and 1977 could attain approximately DH 1,400 million, or 60% or the DH 2,311 million shown in Table 16.1. This amount might be considered the limit to the MARA's investment capability. Moreover, in assessing the prospects for achieving the planned level of investment in agriculture, it must be borne in mind that obligations will constantly exceed actual expenditures. This can be expected under conditions of rising costs, pressure to meet expenditure objectives, and the setting of higher goals. For example, as shown in Table 16.3, there is a pattern of over-reporting annual commitments. The sum of annually reported obligations for irrigation during 1973-75 was almost 200 million more than the cumulative amount calculated by the MARA. 1/ Appropriation rather than actual expenditure. - 34 - 1973-1977 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN PROPOSED AND ACHIEVED 1973-75 INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE (Million DH) Achieved 1973-75 Initial Revised Commit- Expendi- Balance Amount (1974) ment ture 1976-77 Irrigation 1,711 3,666 1,692 773 /2 1,974 - ORMVA perimeters /1 983 2,017 1,097 733 920 - Small & medium schemes 125 165 /3 62 40 103 - Dams 603 1,484 533 n.d. 951 Rainfed areas /4 685 884 408 266 476 Livestock 209 192 87 84 105 Supporting Services 211 298 138 93 160 - Agricultural research 61 83 50 40 33 - Agricultural education 31 47 28 17 19 - Land surveys & management 80 87 41 31 46 - Agricultural economics and inspection /5 39 81 19 5 62 Total 2,993 5,040 2,325 1,217 /2 2,715 /6 /1 The Plan earmarked DH 16 million of outlays in ORMVA perimeters for the improvement of agriculture on non-irrigated land. Commitments for this purpose amounted to approximately DH 16 million during 1973-75 and ex- penditures about DU 11 million. A similar problem occurs for livestock production in irrigated areas, for which DH 8 million was committed and DH 4 million disbursed. /2 Excluding actual dam construction expenditures which are not available for the 1973-75 period. /3 No new aggregate figure was given in the updating document for the five year period. Therefore the revised investment for 1975-77 (DH 40 million) was added to the 1973-74 figures (DH 125 million) shown in the initial Plan. /4 Includes soil, water and forest conservation, but excludes small and medium irrigation schemes included under irrigation. /5 In 1974 the two functions were separated into (a) economics and statistics (affaires economiques), and (b) agricultural inspection (represssion des fraudes). /6 Not counting carry-over from previous years. Source: Secretariat d'Etat au Plan et au Developpement Regional, Plan, Vol. I and L'Execution des Deux Premieres Tranches du Plan de Developpement Economique et Social 1973-77 et les Perspectives pour la Periode 1975-1977; and MARA, Rapport sur l'Execution du Plan Quinquenial 1973-1977, (1975). - 35 - 3.07 The effect of the shortfalls in investment on the targets set (para. 3.03 and 3.04) is difficult to assess, in view of the indicative nature of the Plan. Except for the development of 116,000 ha of modern irrigation, which would contribute to the production of an additional 800,000 tons of sugar beets (120,000 tons of sugar), and an effort to link increases in milk and beef output to livestock investment, plan outlays for most activ- ities were not directly related to achieving the specified production targets., Nevertheless, it seems certain that conditions are not yet established to achieve the more general objectives of reducing the value of agricultural imports by 19% or even increasing exports by 4.6% annually indicated in para. 3.02. A. Investment Strategy 3.08 The composition of investment for agriculture under the Plan raise two related questions of resource allocation for the sector. The first con- cerns the emphasis on long-term growth vs. the need for investment that would be directly productive during the current plan period or shortly thereafter. The second question concerns the relation of investment to the structure of Morocco's agriculture, which would indicate that a larger share than the amount planned would be allocated for non-irrigated areas. The Plan conveys the im- pression that 73% of investment are allocated for irrigated agriculture, 21% for crops and livestock in rainfed areas, and 6% for supporting services. In effect, because the amount for physical infrastructure and overhead investment represents approximately 91% of the investment in both irrigated and rainfed agriculture, the amount of new farm level investment which will be directly productive during the current plan period is about 9%, or some DH 443 million out of a rounded total of DH 5,000 million. Only 4% of the investments planned in irrigation (excluding dam construction) is for investment other than physical infrastructure, while only about one-third of investment in the rest of the agricultural sector is directly for crop and livestock production (table, para 3.06). As shown in the table below, which excludes major irriga- tion and agricultural credit, two-thirds of planned outlays, i.e. categories I through 4, only create a capacity for growth in future plan periods. 3.09 The five major purposes of agricultural investment summarized below leave little doubt of the low level of directly productive investment outside irrigated areas. Admittedly, most of the construction and equipment contem- plated in the Plan and obligated during 1973-75 are needed to expand the scope of Government action in the sector, but they affect productive capacity dif- ferently than irrigation infrastructure. The latter directly generates additional production, even after long gestation periods, while investments for "overhead" and infrastructure in categories 1 and 2 of the following table still require complementary investment and current expenditures to become productive. - 36 - AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT OUTLAYS PLANNED IN 1973-77 AND OBLIGATED DURING 1973-75, BY MAJOR PURPOSE OR FUNCTION /1 (Million DH) 1973-77 Plan 1973-75 Obligations Purpose or Function Amount % Amount- 1. Physical Infrastructure and Equipment 283 25 231.6 37 - Land purchases, public buildings (163.6) (26) and operating equipment of MARA - Rural community infrastructure (68.0) (11) 2. Supporting Services and Pre-Investment 200 18 128.2 20 - Land distribution and consolidation (75.3) - Land surveys and management (31.1) - Economics and statistics (5.8) - Studies (16.0) 3. Education and Research 82 7 54.0 8 - Agricultural education (28.0) - Agricultural research (26.0) 4. Conservation (land, water and forests) 194 17 106.0 17 5. Agricultural Production 363 33 111.0 18 - Agricultural extension (11.0) - Production and investment subsidies (60.1) - Livestock extension and production (39.8) Total 12 1,122 100 631.0 100 /1 Excluding investment in the ORMVA's. /2 Discrepancies between this Table and Table 16.0 are due to rounding. Amount shown for the 1973-77 Plan period are indicative only and do not contain the 1974 increases; however the proportions are almost the same. 3.10 The table above is, of course, an incomplete summary of investment because it excludes medium and long-term credit, and capital outlays of public enterprises such as ONICL, SODEA and SOGETA for directly productive purposes or complementary activities such as marketing. By excluding such.activities from the Plan, too much is assumed about their direct contribution to its objectives, and the capacity of farmers to finance investment either with credit or from their own revenue. The outlays of public enterprises is not known; medium and long-term credit for the entire sector has averaged some DH 200-220 million during the Plan, for approximately 240,000 participating farmers, or 13% of the total. - 37 - 3.11 In addition to the paucity of resources actually invested at the farm level to generate increments in production and income, some outlays classified as investments are actually current operating expenditures of public services, or promotional subsidies for fertilizers, veterinary ser- vices, etc. By classifying recurring annual expenditures and non-investment subsidies as investments, it may be easier for the MARA to secure annual budgetary authorizations, but it creates other problems: First, it draws attention away from the manpower requirements necessary to make investment productive. Second, by appearing to invest large sums in programs, the plan obscures the true costs of achieving certain ends, and the true impact of programs. As an example of this, the allocation of a sizeable amount of resources for livestock during the 1968-72 and 1973-77 plans has not been aimed at tackling the degeneration and structural problems of grazing lands, the insufficiency of forage and declining productivity of cattle and sheep. Third, incremental amounts needed for current expenditures, e.g., to carry on research or rehabilitate deepwells, must compete with more attractive new investments. 3.12 The orientation of agricultural development strategy toward greater emphasis on non-irrigated areas proposed by the MARA will entail a substan- tial increase in both capital and recurring expenditures. Relative to land areas, programs for non-irrigated agriculture will naturally be less capital- intensive than in the ORMVA's but recurrent expenditures would be nearly equivalent to those of irrigated perimeters if concentrated efforts are made in areas such as Oued-Zem, the pre-Rif, Taza, Middelt. Consequently, in addition to concentrating a larger share of investment on directly produc- tive purposes, future planning for non-irrigated areas needs to be more all- inclusive in setting current and investment requirements, in relation to the desired objectives. Such investment would be productive, however, if con- ditions are also established for, inter alia, technological change in semi- arid areas, greater security of tenure for smallholders, and remunerative prices, in order to compensate for the high risks inherent in rainfed farming. B. Agricultural Planning and Policy Coordination 3.13 The recent reorganization of the Ministry of Agriculture and Agrar- ian Reform (MARA) toward greater decentralization of functions is having a salutary effect at the level of provinces (SP's) and ORMVA's. The major Departments of the MARA in Rabat are now staff units under the Minister and Secretary-General. The Chiefs of provincial services and ORMVA's are senior officials who administer the MARA's program and policies, in close coordina- tion with both the governors of the provinces and MARA's major Departments. 3.14 Concurrently with the responsibilities of the SP's and CT's, there should be a sufficient number of technicians to manage the various programs and projects. This is lacking at both levels, due more to salaries and amenities of field staff than a shortage of technicians, which explains in large part the lag between funds authorized and actual investment expendi- tures observed for livestock, extension and small and medium irrigation - 38 - (PMH). Although each Department of MARA is represented by at least one technician in SP's, this is insufficient to help formulate and supervise programs and projects in an entire Province. Consequently the scope of work of both the SP's and CT's tends to adjust to the staff available, with priority assigned to the administration of policies and regulations, reporting to the various departments, justifying expenditures, etc., instead of actually carrying out specific projects. To overcome this handicap, assigning more personnel to the SP's and CT (Centre de Travaux) would not be sufficient. Parallel with the administrative decentralization, greater delegation of decisions and authority are also needed, as well as economic and other in- centives for field assignments, especially for technicians with specialized skills. 3.15 At the MARA in Rabat, the structure is basically sound with a division of labor among the major Departments of the Ministry. The recent separation of the functions between the DER (Direction de l'Equipement) and DMV (Direction de la Mise en Valeur) has reduced centralization. The estab- lishment of a Division of Economic Affairs promises to provide the Ministry with the economic and statistical analysis that it needs, including periodic crop reporting, price analyses, and the basis for the review and coordination of agricultural policy. The MARA needs to consolidate agricultural planning and plan implementation into a single unit. Although each major Department and autonomous agencies have responsibility for both planning and policy implementation, the extraordinary demands of comprehensive planning compete with the day-to-day tasks of agricultural administration. Consequently, after the Plan is approved, its fulfillment is annually measured mainly in financial and physical terms rather than by the accomplishment of economic objectives. In matters that are tangibly defined such as the production of a set volume of sugar beets it has been sufficient to budget resources and employ them with the Agricultural Investment Code and other policies. The same can be said with respect to other concrete programs: agricultural education, forestry, conservation. However, in activities which are not exclusively dependent on the amount of expenditures or physical construction, the qualitative aspects of agricultural policies are not yet incorporated in agricultural planning. For example, it was not until the National Rangelands Commission was estab- lished that several Departments of MARA, and other entities of the Government, began to define the problems and outline the options in dealing with the complex problems of overgrazing and land tenure. 3.16 In consolidating the planning and policy functions of the Office of the Secretary-General of the MARA a new unit should either be created or incorporated in the Division of Economic Affairs. Its tasks would be mainly to coordinate plan and program formulation and evaluation, in the context of agricultural policies and the plan's objectives. Other matters for which it would also be responsible are prices and marketing, the effectiveness of agricultural research and extension, production incentives and subsidies and future land use. 3.17 In light of the annual reports on the execution of the 1973-77 Plan, the new planning and policy function would require a more comprehensive and unified base of agricultural statistics. The Division of Economics Affairs (DAE) has made great strides in this respect but, as can be noted in this - 39 - report, there is a need for a less fragmented approach to periodic data col- lection, including crop reporting. The DAE depends largely on frequently conflicting secondary data generated by other Departments, but it should collect more of its own data for all purposes. C. Agricultural Prices 3.18 Prices of major agricultural commodities have followed an upward trend since the early 1970's, following a period of relative stability. Since 1973, prices of most commodities increased by more than 50% as shown below: PRICES PAID TO FARMERS FOR SELECTED COMMODITIES (DH/Q) 1969 1971 1973 1974 1975 Barley 20 27 31 40 58 Durum wheat 40 44 46 63 88 Soft wheat 35 39 41 40 60 Maize 23 30 31 45 70 Sorghum 22 28 32 - 58 Broad beans 33 35 38 - 67 Chick peas 42 44 95 - 102 Sugarbeeets 60 60 76 90 96 Sunflower 64 64 74 90 130 Olives - 44 55 - 109 Source: Table 10.0. 3.19 Although the markets for most commodities are not centrally managed, nearly all agricultural prices involve some degree of intervention by the Government or public institution for one or more purposes: export promotion, consumer price stability, stimulation of production, vertical integration of production with agro-industrial processing, and, of course, to avoid extreme scarcity of staple commodities such as milk and soft wheat. Export promotion represents the minimum degree of intervention in agricultural prices, as illustrated by the Office de Commercialization et Exportation (OCE) which purchases on the basis of production contracts made against export commit- ments for vegetables, citrus, etc. The Office Nationale Interprofessionel des Cereales et Legumineuses (ONICL) performs a similar function for pulses. 3.20 The protection of consumers from higher prices, as during 1973-1975, is more complex because of the concurrent need to stimulate production through remunerative prices. The Government chooses means such as supply management and subsidies for imported staples--soft wheat, sugar, edible oils, butter--to simultaneously avoid scarcity and maintain consumers' real income. For cereal grains, the supply management function is administered by the ONICL, which - 40 - regulates inventory levels at all points and levies a tax on the volume that it regulates. But only a part of cereals is regulated by ONICL according to prices set by MARA, because most grains, except soft wheat, are subject only to minimum, or support, prices. Support prices for durum wheat, barley, maize and sorghum are generally lower than those in the free market. The price of bread wheat is fixed by the MARA to keep bread prices from rising. Sales to flour mills through the SCAM (Societe de Commercialization Agricole Marocaine) are compulsory, but a parallel market also exists for lower grades of wheat. Consequently, except for bread wheat, support prices are only indicative and would be necessary only if scarcity were replaced by surpluses or if they fulfilled a supply stabilization function. 3.21 For bread wheat and other commodities with fixed prices, such as oilseeds, the method of price determination in part explains the continued lag in production. Prices are set on the basis of a calculated break-even point plus a profit, relative to a desired income level per ha. The esti- mate is arrived at from production costs at a single technological level, including an assumed value for land rent, all labor, interest, etc. The price selected to achieve a gross income level per ha is subjectively decided, irrespective of distortions in factor costs or risks, alternative opportu- nities for higher value crops, or a wide range of productivity levels due to different factor endowments. As shown in para. 3.18, the difference between the price of bread and durum wheat has widened from DH 5/Qx to DH 28/Qx in 1975. The short-term response of producers to prices is, to the extent possible, to switch to lower risk and more profitable crops, such as pulses (lentils, bread beans, chick peas, etc.), rather than risk the costs of fer- tilizers and improved seeds for a low margin sunflower or wheat crop. An illustration is given below for major crops produced in both rainfed and irrigated areas. PRICE LEVEL RELATIVE TO RETURNS FOR PRODUCTION OF MAJOR COMMODITIES Target Returns (DH/ha) Break- 100 200 300 400 500 600 Yield even Actual Prices Needed to Achieve Returns Crop (region) (Q/ha) Price Price Above ------------------------ (DH/Q) ----------------------- Barley 11 58 58 68 77 86 95 104 - Durum wheat (Chaouia) 12 82 70-88 90 98 107 115 124 - Durum wheat (Fez.) 15 75 70-88 82 88 95 101 108 - Durum wheat (Irrig.) 25 58 100 62 66 70 74 78 - Bread wheat (Fez). 18 68 60-63 74 79 85 90 96 101 Bread wheat (Irrig.) 35 48 60 51 54 57 59 62 - Bread wheat (Irrig.) 25 67 60 71 75 81 83 97 - Sunflower (irrig.) 18 91 130 97 102 108 113 119 124 Sunflower (rainfed) 9 111 130 122 133 144 156 167 - Hybrid corn (Doukhkala) 30 57 50 60 64 67 71 74 - Sugarbeets (irrig.) 35 79 96 83 85 88 90 93 96 Sugarbeets (rainfed) 25 75 96 79 83 88 91 95 99 Source: MARA (DMV), 1976. - 41 - 3.22 The above table illustrates that fixed or minimum prices for cereals are near or below the break-even point. When conditions permit this encourages cost-saving measures to generate a higher income per ha or a shift in cropping patterns toward more favorably priced crops such pulses. This is not the case, for sugarbeets, which are contractually priced according to demand by the mills. Sunflower seeds which, until 1975, had been at a price so low as to discourage producers in rainfed areas from using modern techniques, are fre- quently replaced by more profitable spring crops. 3.23 For milk, the price paid to producers by dairies is set by the Government. The fixed price in 1975 varied from DH 0.80/1 during the peak production period to DH 1.05/1 during the winter months. A subsidy is paid to dairies to stimulate their volume of milk processed, which ranged from 16% to 36% of the price paid to milk producers, depending on the season. Dairies are also subsidized for butter production on the order of DH 2.00- 2.25 per kg, thereby reducing the price of butter to consumers by an equiva- lent amount and supporting the price of milk at a high level. 3.24 For crops which require further processing, or are "vertically integrated", such as cotton, sugar beets and cane, and oilseeds, prices are determined according to the requirements of processing plants for raw materials and the degree of capacity utilization desired. Prices paid for sugar beets have consistently been set to achieve profitability for beet producers, mills or refineries which would otherwise operate well below their capacity. The price paid to farmers for sugar beets has risen from DH 60/ton in 1969--after a long period of stability--to DH 96 in 1975/76. This has enabled the mills and refineries to produce sugar at prices of DH 1.85 - 2.20/ kg for refined sugar. The success achieved with sugar beet pricing does not apply for oilseeds, perhaps because of the multiple by-products for which markets must be developed. 3.25 The successful experience with price determination of sugar beets and pulses and, to a limited extent, milk, should probably be applied to soft wheat. The principle involved is simple: remunerate producers who increase production and market it through regulated channels. It would undoubtedly require time to alter the structure of production, to increase the area planted in bread wheat and decrease that planted in durum. However, such an approach would be compatible with the apparent preference of Moroccan consumers. D. Subsidies 3.26 Subsidies for both the production and consumption of agricultural products are employed in Morocco. Based on the amounts involved in recent years, consumers have benefited much more from subsidies than producers. The government is aware that subsidies represent substantial drains of current revenue, but it has committed itself to the goals outlined below. -42 - a. Producer subsidies. These are cost-reducing incentives for producers to encourage investment and/or production of predetermined commodities. The aggregate amount of resources employed for such subsidies is only vaguely known, but for individual items has been estimated to be 20-30% of fertilizer costs to farmers, 30% of forage seeds, 20% of imported dairy cattle, etc. During 1973-75 subsidies for agricultural production and investment amounted to about DH 75 million, of which DB 43 million was for fertilizer use. In addition, DH 383 million was spent on subsidies for fertilizer imports. The funds spent on fertilizers, some DH 426 million during 1973-75, plus seeds, dairy cows and machinery could, theoretically, generate more production than would have been forthcoming without any government intervention. Once the productive capability is established, it would be expected that such subsidies could be reduced, or even eliminated, and that the government-regulated "market mechanism" would correspondingly enable prices to rise. b. Consumer subsidies. These are mainly subsidies to reduce the cost of food imports. They are financed in large part by the Government budget through the compensatory fund of the Caisse de Compensation and the cereals marketing organization (ONICL). The Caisse also offsets part of the increase in the costs of imported fertilizer, cement and fuels. Total subsidies from the Caisse and ONICL financed from the budget amounted to approximately DR 2.5 billion in 1975 vs. DH 1.5 million in 1974, and only DH 135 million in 1973. Agricultural commodities - wheat, sugar, edible oils and butter - as shown in the following Table, accounted for DR 2 billion or 80% of the 1975 import subsi- dies, with sugar leading in value, followed by wheat and edible oils. Subsidies for imported foods reached their 1975 level because of rapidly rising import costs since 1973, relative to prices set by the Government. Without Government countermeasures market prices would have other- wise risen to meet higher production costs and reflect supply-demand relationships. 3.27 The complex and costly system of subsidies for selected production inputs and a few imported commodities has helped keep their price more stable than without Government intervention. With some exceptions, it has not, how- ever, generally induced the expected increases in production. The adoption of production subsidies assumes that lower costs will be distributed in pro- portion to the volume of production on each farm. Such subsidies really apply to the better endowed, more efficient, market-oriented farmers, i.e. those in irrigated areas or where rainfall, soils, etc. are adequate. At the most, the number of such farmers does not exceed 600,000 out of a total of 1.9 million. Another second implicit assumption is that consumer sub- sidies to help finance imports, would not be a deterrent to increasing - 43 - production (and income), which could presumably be achieved through higher prices and the adoption of modern inputs and techniques. Except for sugar beet and some individual milk producers, this effect has not occurred. Consequently, in addition to the considerable costs to the Central Government, subsidies represent the loss to the economy of an undetermined agricultural production potential, and tends to exacerbate the dualism of the agricultural sector. IMPORT SUBSIDIES FOR MAJOR AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES (Million DH) 1973 1974 1975 Wheat 102 215 400 Sugar 75 476 1,229 Edible oils - 285 423 Butter - n.d. 27 Fertilizer n.d. 113 270 Source: Caisse de Compensation. 3.28 Import subsidies, as an antidote to inflation also seem to have had an effect equivalent to maintaining or, possibly, increasing the real income of consumers. In seeking to insulate consumers from rising interna- tional commodity prices in 1973-75, import subsidies permitted a much more pronounced rise in the volume of imports and consumption for two of the three food commodities than otherwise would have occurred after 1972, as shown below. IMPORTS AND PRODUCTION OF BREAD WHEAT AND SUGAR ('000 tons) Bread Wheat Sugar Year Imports Production Total Imports Production Total 1971 72 546 1,218 247 238 485 1972 382 530 912 222 252 474 1973 905 392 1,297 278 194 472 1974 778 473 1,251 287 292 579 1975 1,304 371 1,675 267 270 537 Source: Tables 2.0 and 3.2. 3.29 In the aggregate, subsidies contributed DH 3.2 billion to cushion the cost of imports for consumers from 1973 to 1975. This amount is 85% of the increment in the total c.i.f. value of bread wheat, sugar and edible oils. With this level of protection, demand increased, but it remains to be seen what would be the effective demand and domestic production at or near market prices. To achieve this would require significantly reducing the import subsidies and allowing domestic prices to rise to a more remunerative level for producers. - 44- 3.30 Although agricultural subsidies and prices are but two factors affecting agricultural production, an assessment is needed of the real costs to the economy of the present system and the alternatives open to the Govern- ment. Such an assessment should be done by the Price Directorate of the Office of the Prime Minister and the MARA. Concerning, first, prices the review should focus on the method of price determination, prices actually paid to the producers and the short and long-term effects of subsidies for imported foods on farm prices and income. Second, alternatives to the present system of subsidies should be sought between (a) reallocating subsi- dies among a much larger number of farmers as an inducement to supply agreed quantities at contracted prices, as practiced for sugar beets and milk; (b) gradually reducing the total amounts of subsidies and allowing prices to rise in response to effective demand, while continuing to rely on support prices, set near market prices, as an indication of the Government's determination to improve supply management by direct purchases from producers. E. Agricultural Credit 1/ 3.31 Although it is not formally included in the 1973-77 Development Plan, agricultural credit plays an important role in the agricultural devel- opment of Morocco. Virtually the only source of farm credit is the Caisse National de Credit Agricole (CNCA) with 24 regional branches (CRCA), and 86 Caisses Locales de Credit Agricole (CLCA). The CNCA/CRCA lends to borrowers with a "fiscal income" in excess of DH 3,000 and to cooperatives or other associations; the CLCA's lends only to small holders whose "fiscal income" is below DH 3,000. 3.32 Since the creation of the CNCA in 1961-62 it has vigorously pursued a policy to expand credit available to farmers. The CNCA credit increased from DH 85 million in 1961-62 to DH 711 million in 1974-75. Although lending tripled from 1961-62 to 1967-68, from a very low base, the increase in lending since 1971-72 is more revealing, as shown below: 1/ A more comprehensive review of the Agricultural Credit System is contained in the Caisse Nationale de Credit Agricole III appraisal report (Annex 2). - 45 - AGRICULTURAL CREDIT COMMITMENTS BY THE CNCA AND ITS AFFILIATES 1961/62-1974/75 (Million DH) Medium and Short Term Long Term Total 1961-62 n.a. n.a. 85 1967-68 n.a. n.a. 240 1971-72 290 95 384 1972-73 319 156 474 1973-74 390 199 589 1974-75 497 214 711 Source: CNCA. 3.33 The growth of lending in recent years indicates a large pent-up demand for agricultural credit, especially to finance medium and long term investments. While total credit increased by 83% during the last 5 years, the amount supplied to finance medium and long-term needs increased by 118%. There are indications that this trend will continue, with creditworthiness of potential borrowers as the only major constraint. 3.34 The amount of lending by the CNCA System is essentially limited by the income potential of borrowers. Theoretically any farmer with a "fiscal income" over DH 100 annually is eligible to borrow. This corresponds to a farm income of approximately DH 250, which is equivalent to net income from one ha of barley or wheat cultivated by traditional techniques. In reality virtually none with a fiscal income below DH 300 (equivalent to 2 ha) is reached by institutional credit, which means that at least 1.2 million small holders are or will remain ineligible for official credit. 1/ Until now, only some 240,000 borrowers have been using agricultural credit, but the number is expected to increase with the expansion of CLCA operations and formation of more cooperatives and farmers' associations. 3.35 Producers' associations or pre-cooperative groups are becoming means of obtaining credit for joint-purchasing of machinery and implements. About 380 such groups existed at the end of 1975, with a total of 2,600 members. Whether such groups will develop into cooperatives or remain as loose asso- ciations is unknown, in view of the fact that many dissolve and new ones are established during any one year. 3.36 The expansion in the use of short-term credit is easier to visualize than medium- and long-term borrowing. Although farmers with a fiscal income of DH 300-3,000 are eligible for medium- and long-term borrowing from the 1/ The 1.7 million consists only of crop producers. - 46 - CLCA, such loans are subject to strict limitation in the amount of indebted- ness. These limits in effect reduce to about 70% the amount that can be financed with credit by farmers below the DH 300-3,000 level. Therefore, to expand the use of short, medium, and long-term credit certain conditions must obtain: (a) prerequisites for viable borrowing must exist, i.e. the technical possibility for increasing income and savings, and (b) restrictions on medium- and long-term borrowing by small holders must be relaxed to accommodate investments, such as pasture improvement, which may require several years to bear fruit. 3.37 Efforts to link the use of short term credit to higher productivity have been successful for some crops and some types of farmers. This is evident with sugar beet production (30% of total short-term lending). High wheat yields obtained by a small number of borrowers receiving direct tech- nical assistance and inputs from the extension service (CT's) also attest to the role of credit in financing the means of raising productivity. Progress made by the CLCA's during the next few years in executing the Bank's Third Loan to CNCA will be the barometer of the degree to which credit will generate both the incomes and the savings for smallholders in rainfed areas. - 47 - IV. POSSIBILITIES FOR CROP PRODUCTION A. Achieving Higher Yields and Yield Stability 4.01 Land availability dictates that long term increases in crop produc- tion must be sought in rainfed areas, although considerable potential exists on lands that are presently or will be irrigated. However, even before major gains are achieved under rainfed conditions, it should be possible to increase irrigated crop production through multiple cropping, higher yields and in- creased plantings of wheat and oilseeds. According to Table 6.2, the Govern- ment expects that, when the irrigation investment program is completed, approximately 600,000 ha will be planted in crops that are also produced under non-irrigated conditions, mainly cereals, sugar beets, pulses and oilseeds. Except for about 30,000 ha of sugar beets and 200,000 ha of cereals, these crops are at present mostly grown without irrigation. 4.02 The timing and amount of precipitation is so decisive in rainfed agriculture that during an unfavorable year, it can nullify the effect of nearly all improved cultural practices. For example, average grain yields were 14.7 Q/ha in 1968, an excellent crop year, but fell to 6.9 Q/ha in 1973 and 8.4 Q/ha in 1975, both of which were "drought" years. However, it is possible to achieve greater yield stability so that the fluctuations between extremely favorable and drought years are reduced and higher average yields are obtained over time. 4.03 The failure to raise yields and achieve some degree of yield stability in rainfed areas is due mainly to the limited adoption of suitable cultural practices, except on the more modernized farms. Such practices do not always substantially increase cash costs, although fertilizer and labor requirements are generally higher. The major improvements needed are outlined below: (a) Water conservation. Farmers should take steps to effectively build up soil moisture reserves by tilling the land before the first rains of autumn. (b) Land preparation. Much improvement is possible in seed and root-bed preparation for particular crops. (c) Availability and use of quality seeds. Quality seeds are needed in sufficient quantity for the most important crops. Because of the economic importance of seeds, the subject is discussed below (Paragraphs 4.21-4.26). Under Morocco's agricultural conditions, more risk-spreading varieties are needed, to permit choice of varieties according to the yield- limiting factors of any given year, area or farm. This would minimize the risk of massive crop failures, especially for cereals. - 48 - (d) Plant density. The practice of sowing cereals by broad- casting followed by disking or plowing into the ground, results in low plant density, low germination, favorable conditions for weeds, and poor resistance to moisture stress. Good seedbed preparation should be followed by use of a grain drill for sowing to assure optimal spacing and depth of seeds. (e) Fertilization. The average increase of 11.5% annually in the use of fertilizer has greatly outpaced the increase in crop production, and help explain the gains achieved by sugar beets and cotton. Subsidies of 20% for the purchase of fertilizer should result in greater productivity. (f) Weed control. Weeds are often viewed as a source of forage for livestock, rather than a competitor for moisture and plant nutrients. Timely control is needed; e.g., spraying before weeds reach flowering or plowing before weeds set seeds. A crop of oats-vetch to replace the common weed-fallow would produce a much needed high- value forage and help control weeds in the succeeding cereal crop. (g) Mechanization. Mechanization would be less necessary if Morocco had adequate animal traction and suitable implements to increase the productivity of the ample supply of rural labor. A recent evaluation of agri- cultural credit shows little substitution of labor by mechanization, except for harvesting, and on larger farms. Mechanization compensates for inadequate animal traction, permits completion of operations on time and with greater precision, and compensates for generally adverse or unpre- dictable weather. For some 6 million ha of crop land, Morocco has a total of 18,500 tractors, which is sufficient for land preparation on approximately 2.8 million ha. The 3,400 pieces of harvesting equipment, allowing 300 ha per machine, give a mechanized harvesting capacity of about I million ha. Approximately two-thirds of the tractors and one-third of the harvesters are employed in irrigated areas (500-600,000 ha), leaving at least 4 million ha in rainfed areas cultivated by traditional means. 4.04 By virtue of their economic importance within the wide range of crops produced in Morocco and because of their unfulfilled potential in both irrigated and non-irrigated areas, barley, wheat, maize, oilseeds and sugar beets are singled out for future programs. 4.05 Barley. Barley accounts for roughly 44% of all land in cereals and about one-third of all land in crops. It is consumed not only as livestock feed, but as human food, particularly in years of unfavorable wheat harvests. All the current varieties grown are fairly susceptible to the major diseases, - 49 - net blotch (Pyrenophora), leaf blotch (Helminthsporium), and scald (Rhynco- sporium). The most popular varieties are very susceptible to lodging, and hence are unable to benefit from high rates of nitrogen fertilization. Barley is also the most neglected crop, both from the standpoint of cultiva- tion practices as well as applied research. It is usually planted on the poorest land receiving the least preparation and seldom benefits from any weed control. Its big advantage is that since it is a short season crop, it is more immune to spring drought than wheat. The national average yield is below 10 Q/ha, but trials suggest that the real potential is 50 - 100% greater. 1/ The only meaningful research now underway is being carried out by the National Agricultural Institute. The DRA is cooperating by providing land and equip- ment, though there is no effort yet to translate what has been discovered into recommended production practices. As shown in the table below, it is doubtful that present barley yields can support higher production costs. COMPARATIVE COSTS AND RETURNS FROM TRADITIONAL AND MODERN PRODUCTION METHODS (DH/ha) /1 Traditional Modern Durum Durum Bread Wheat Barley Wheat Wheat Barley Hired labor /2 63 63 84 84 84 Seeds 42 36 100 128 92 Fertilizer - - 126 165 60 Mechanization 90 90 235 245 170 Irrigation 25 25 102 112 85 220 214 647 744 519 Yield (Q) 7 8 15 18 11 Gross value /3 538 448 1,170 1,200 650 Net value 318 234 523 456 131 Interest charges /4 - - 35 40 28 Net income 318 234 488 416 103 Production cost/Q 31.4 26.7 45 44 49 Al No land rent cost assumed. /2 Family labor is remunerated from net income. /3 Includes value of straw. /4 At 8% for 8 months. Source: MARA 1/ "Quelques Aspects de l'Amelioration de l'Orge au Maroc," by J.L. Caddell, A. Thompson, R.D. Wilcoxson. Hommes, Terre & Eaux, Rabat, Deember 1975. - 50 - Wheat 4.06 Since 1965, a number of campaigns have been carried out to improve yields. Plowing, fertilizer, use of high yielding varieties and rotations have all been the object of "crash" campaigns. Yet the basic principles of good wheat farming were already known and being used by a few modern farmers who succeeded in doubling and tripling average yields. Nevertheless, national average yields are still under 10 t/ha (Table 7.2). Even though these cam- paigns have not achieved the spectacular results expected, the level of wheat farming has improved since 1971. With increasing mechanization, field prep- aration has improved, more farmers are using more fertilizer and high-yielding varieties (HYV), and the use of herbicides is more widespread. There remains the lack of experience and understanding among farmers of how to combine these practices consistently, so as to raise yields and returns. However, it is not certain that potential returns are sufficiently enticing to adopt cost- increasing techniques. Costs of production of soft wheat, using recommended practices in the Fez-Meknes area, show that costs have risen 41% since 1973. The price of bread wheat rose 33% in the same period (from 45 DH to 60 DH/Q). At 1976 costs and prices, a farmer would have to obtain a yield of 20 Q/ha to break even, while in 1975 the average yield was 16.4 Q/ha in that region and lower elsewhere. Therefore, substantially higher yields will be a necessary condition, at 1976 costs and prices. Yields under traditional methods in less favored areas such as Oued-Zem or Oujda are seldom above 9-10 Q/ha, but costs are reduced by DH 300-400/ha. This places total costs of producing one quintal of wheat well below market and stipulated prices for both durum and bread wheat (DH 70 and DH 60 respectively). With imputed costs of unpaid family labor, risks of cash loss are minimized-and the output from 1 ha of durum wheat produced by traditional methods is equivalent to a cash income of DH 300-400. 4.07 With a relatively fixed area of 2 million ha available for wheat in rainfed areas, the average annual increase in yields of 1.4% during 1961/65-1975/71 has been insufficient. If, during the next decade, yields could rise by an average of 2% annually, an average of 12 Q/ha would be obtained during 1981/85, vs. 9.8 Q in 1971/75. This would amount to an additional 400,000 tons which would cover about 50% of the projected addi- tional deficit in bread wheat between 1975 and 1985. Besides raising yields in rainfed areas, Morocco should tap the wheat production potential of its irrigated lands where yield stability is more certain. Though average wheat yields of 20-25 Q/ha have been reported under irrigation, a minimum of 35 Q/ha is a more realistic level with existing technology. If this poten- tial is tapped, the 200,000 ha planted in wheat under irrigation could produce 700,000-800,000 tons vs. their present volume of 400,000 tons. Contrary to certain opinions, irrigated wheat production can be highly profitable. According to MARA estimates, the main additional expenses in the Lower Moulouya perimeter are irrigation water, which was valued at 81 DH/ha and fertilizer (78 DH/ha). This would require only an additional production of 2.65 Q/ha over yields of non-irrigated wheat in the Fez-Meknes region. Lifting the price of bread wheat to a more remunerative level than in 1975 and 1976 would probably accelerate wheat production in irrigated areas. - 51 - Maize 4.08 Open pollinated maize is planted on approximately 400,000 ha, with average yields of 7.4 Q/ha during the last 9 years. It is frequently grown by subsistence farmers as a substitute crop when other cereals could not be sown during the autumn planting season. Because hybrid maize varieties are profitable only under irrigation, it would be preferable, therefore, that Morocco either introduce better maize genotypes, with CIMMYT assistance, or toi substitute sorghum. In rainfed areas, the latter can be grown under similar conditions as maize and yields average 10.4 Q/ha, and is much better adapted to the short springs and hot, dry summers of Morocco. Oilseeds 4.09 The surge in demand for vegetable oils has caught Morocco by surprise and its modest oilseed production has been inadequate. Domestic production of sunflower, cottonseed and peanuts supplies only 9-10% of total demand for vegetable oils. In addition to lack of agronomic experience with plants other than cottonseed, sunflower and peanuts, expanding oilseed produc- tion -poses complex agro-industrial problems that are not as easily solved as for sugar beet or cane. The specialized nature of oil crushing and refining and the need to dispose of multiple byproducts in a limited domestic market may pose some problems. Aside from cottonseed produced under irrigation, sunflower is the only major oilseed produced in Morocco. Under rainfed conditions, its average yield is only about 8 Q/ha, or 275 kg of crude oil per ha, compared with a potential of 15 Q/ha under irrigation, which would be equivalent to 525 kg of crude oil. Peanuts were recently introduced and the record so far is spotty, though oil yields per ton are higher than from other oilseed crops. Several years of trials under irrigation would be needed before large-scale production of soybeans could be risked, due to their day-length sensitivity. Results of safflower trials are not known, but varieties of this hardy plant thrive under irrigation, producing up to 5 tons/ha in California and Northwest Mexico where climates are similar to Marrakech, Safi or Agadir. In order to entice farmers to expand production and improve practices, both agronomic and economic research will be needed for a range of oilseeds. Sugar beets 4.11 Sugar beet production is equally successful in rainfed and in irrigated areas due to a combination of favorable economic and market-related factors. Beet prices paid by the mills have steadily edged up, from DH 66/ton in 1973 to DH 96 in 1975. Even with a 10 t/ha difference between yields of rainfed and irrigated areas, prices have assured producers a remuneration of 600-900/ha, excluding returns to land and labor which, at current prices, can add another DH 900/ha in rainfed and DH 1,300/ha in irrigated areas. If costs rise, without corresponding increase in yields, beet production in non-irrigated areas may become marginal in the future at current prices paid to producers. - 52 - B. Agricultural Research 4.12 Morocco possesses a large and well-established agricultural research institution, the Agricultural Research Department (DRA) of the MARA. With 30 central research stations, 40 experimental stations, and 9 regional plant protection and inspection stations (Tables 14.2 and 14.3), the physical plant of DRA is unusually well-endowed for agricultural research and plant protec- tion work. The DRA has a staff of 471 professionals plus supporting personnel of 1,780 and a total budget of DH 23.6 million in 1976 (excluding salaries). There is sufficient balance between central administration and field services, and the two major divisions seem to be staffed in proportion to the complexity of their respective functions. Admittedly as of June 1976, there were some 125 vacancies at the professional level and 112 in supporting positions, but personnel shortages appear to be temporary, although 21% in professional vacancies is high, particularly as these are mostly for personnel at the research and experiment stations. 4.13 Notwithstanding the appearance of a large, well-structured and adequately-financed agricultural research organization, a combination of factors inherent in its scope, method of work and staffing, minimize the impact of DRA on the productivity of agriculture. Scope 4.14 An imbalance is evident in the services and work programs of the two major divisions of the DRA: the Research and Experiment (ER) Division and the Technical Control and Phytosanitary Division (CTP). The latter deals with more routine matters of plant protection and seed multiplication. However, the former, which should be concerned with more basic factors affecting crop productivity, lacks a well defined work program focused on national priorities. Therefore, its work is broadly scattered among a large variety of crops and tends to deal with a myriad of problems that should be the concern of CTP. 4.15 The lack of criteria for setting research priorities and formulating specific programs hinders the work of both divisions. For example, in spite of a relatively large investment achieved so far during the 1973-75 develop- ment plan (DH 49.6 million) and the amount proposed for 1976-77 (DH 35 mil- lion) barley research is negligible, and very few on-farm selection trials are being conducted for other cereals. At the central stations, out of a total of 176 persons assigned, only 21 work on cereals and 6 on oilseed crops, vs. 19 on sugar, 6 on pulses, and 7 on olives. The regional centers, virtually work on all activities other than cereal and oilseed crops. With the exception of the valuable work carried out by the CTP in producing foundation seed, and supervising seed certification, the emphasis of the DRA is more on the less demanding, more routine role of plant protection. Of course, this makes it possible to undertake a large number of projects, but many of these seek answers that are often already well documented, such as the optimum growing periods, effect of plant-spacing on tillering, effect of potash fertilization, etc., rather than to solve fundamental problems limiting - 53 - crop production in farmers' fields. The DRA should resume the former practice of conducting trials with "pilot" farmers, with the express object of finding the choice of crops, varieties, and cultural methods which will raise both productivity and profitability. The DRA should also cooperate more with the various ORMVA to eliminate the sort of duplication which now exists near Sidi Slimane. 4.16 In spite of the existence of three major stations concerned with livestock and animal science, very little actual research is being conducted in this and related fields. Virtually no research in forage crops is con- ducted. Structure 4.17 The DRA's previous autonomy has been eliminated recently and re- gional and local research personnel are responsible to the Provincial Directors of the MARA, who are in turn responsible to the Governors of their respective provinces. However, the research personnel as well as many of their activities are still administered from Rabat. This new structure has produced much discontent within the MARA. Staff complain that their responsi- bilities are unclear and their authority is diluted. The frequent failure to clearly assign responsibility to staff and hold them accountable for providing meaningful results is one of the chief structural weaknesses in the present organization. 4.18 It is estimated that all of the DRA experiment stations occupy 20-30,000 ha of land. The number of stations seems excessive, especially in certain provinces such as Marrakech (7), Beni-Mellal (5), and Kenitra (5), where they are concentrated. A redeployment of research and experimentation among a smaller number of stations would reduce the need for scarce research and administrative skills. Technical Staff 4.19 The observation that the DRA is well-staffed must be qualified with the caveat that its large staff consists of a small number of university- trained technicians relative to the myriad of research and related activities. Although the DRA's professional staff increased from 208 persons in 1963 to 375 in 1974, the additional staff consists of non-university trained assis- tants, while the number of university trained scientific personnel, including expatriate advisers, was reduced by 10. At this time, therefore, the scien- tifically trained staff of 130 is barely adequate to administer a total of 70 stations and 9 inspection and control offices, and conduct scientific work in 50 separate activities. Moreover, with 37 vacant posts requiring university trained professionals, this means that most of the actual research is con- ducted by assistants. - 54 - Impact 4.20 It is widely acknowledged that insufficient quantities and poor quality of seed have been important factors in limiting yields in Morocco. About 4.7 million ha (90% of total cropland) are annually planted with seed of which nothing is known about its germinating ability and varietal purity, nor its freedom from weed seeds, foreign matter and diseases. Practically none of it is treated before sowing. Use of such seed frequently results in thin stands which are neither able to compete with weeds nor benefit from extra fertilizer or soil moisture, even though the seed may be of high- yielding varieties. 4.21 The Technical Control and Phytosanitary Division (CTP) is responsible for the production of foundation seed and the inspection and certification of registered and certified seed. Foundation seed of 22 cereal varieties is produced using costly, time-consuming, and antiquated methods at 16 different stations. Nevertheless, the CTP assures ample supplies of foundation and registered seed, limiting its production to known demand. 4.22 The system begins to break down at the point where registered seed is multiplied into certified seed by some 700-800 farmers and the certified seed is distributed for regular planting. In 1973-74, for example, the DRA had enough registered seed to sow 50,000 ha of durum wheat and 50,000 ha of bread wheat. However, only 30,000 ha of the former and 16,000 ha of the latter were actually planted. This should have permitted delivery to the state grain cooperative (SCAM) of 300,000 Q of durum and 250,000 Q of bread wheat. However, the SCAM only received 180,000 Q of the former and 240,000 Q of the latter. 1/ 4.23 Frequent problems have been encountered in the use of the SCAM as the major processor, storer, and distributor of registered and certified seed. Since the main role of the SCAM is the handling of commercial grains, there seems to be an incompatibility in carrying out these two functions under the existing organization and with the present facilities. 4.24 In the past few years, it has been impossible to observe any cor- relation between the volume of certified seed reportedly planted and yields. 1/ Note Sur La Mise au Point d'Une Organization du Secteur Semences Selectionnees, SONACOS, MARA, Rabat 1975. - 55 - AVAILABILITY AND IMPACT OF CERTIFIED BREAD WHEAT SEED ON YIELDS Seed Area Yield Produced /1 in wheat /2 (Q/ha) Year (Q) ('000 ha) 1969 103,300 454 8.4 1970 158,000 489 11.2 1971 150,600 481 10.7 1972 194,600 562 7.0 1973 292,000 528 8.9 1974 172,900 453 8.2 /1 Harvested in June. /2 Planted in October. Seeding rate approx. 1.25 Q/ha. 4.25 The DRA should continually reassess its seed research and production activities in terms of the impact achieved on crop production under uncon- trolled conditions. The following measures appear to be the minimum needed: (a) more on-farm varietal testing; (b) more risk-spreading varieties of major crops to cover different ecological conditions and rotations; (c) more quality, control over seed multiplication and distribution; and (d) a different system of processing, storage, and distribution than that now provided by the SCAM. C. Extension Service 4.26 The extension service is part of the DMV and employs over 900 people in its field organization who work through 15 provincial services, 94 local centers (Centres de Travaux - CT) serving rainfed areas, and a number of sub-centers scattered among the more important villages. Extension pro- grams in the past were usually built around integrated operations stressing a single theme such as plowing, fertilization, etc. However, it became apparent that extension staff were more tied up with administrative tasks than in actual technical assistance to farmers. Recently, steps have been taken to increase the general effectiveness of the extension staff, though one of the main problems is the increasing attrition of agents who seek employment in the private sector where salaries are twice the DH 1000/month paid by MARA. Naturally, some of the more energetic and ambitious agents leave the service as soon as they have completed the obligatory initial service period (6 years). 4.27 The extension service trains its own agents at three schools which are now operating at full capacity. It has been suggested that more training schools are needed. Nevertheless, the authorities estimate that they would have enough agents if they could reduce attrition and have more control over the agents' residence. They state, quite logically, that an agent living in the village or area where he works is worth perhaps two who live in towns and have to "commute" to the countryside. - 56 - 4.28 Eight rural youth training centers have recently been established but they lack trained staff, are greatly underequipped, and occupy the students with a fairly meaningless program which leaves training needs un- satisfied. Given its sound objectives this effort needs to be improved and expanded since rural youth is one of the two major elements of the rural population groups which is left out of the extension services' work. The other group is women. 4.29 There is still a great gap in coordination between research and extension. Several practices are still being recommended which are contrary to experimental evidence. There is also a continuing failure to recognize the profit-motive as a stimulus to agricultural production. Various plans and programs refer to the duty of farmers to produce more to fulfill national goals. D. Education and Training 4.30 The Agricultural Education Department (DEA) is responsible for these functions and its Director is also Director of the Institut Agronomique et Veterinaire Hassan II (IAV), located in Rabat. It trains agricultural engineers and other professionals, including veterinarians. 4.31 Between the Institute, the agricultural school at Meknes, the for- estry school at Sale, and the National Institute of Statistics, 1355 students are enrolled in studies leading to the equivalent to a B.Sc. degree. Student enrollment has increased tenfold in the past five years. Though only 103 "ingenieurs" and 11 veterinarians were graduated in 1976, this number is expected to rise to about 600 by 1981 (Table 15.0). Nine post-secondary agricultural schools, with a current enrollment of 777, offer two-year courses in agriculture and related technical fields (forestry, topography, statistics, mechanics, etc.). By tacit agreement with the DEA, the DMV's extension ser- vice continues to assume responsibility for training its own agents. Of 470 presently in training, 417 are expected to complete their studies in 1977. 4.32 The IAV has become the national center for new approaches to agri- culture. It is impressive not only because of its modern physical plant, but also for its catalytic role in provoking study and debate on agricultural issues. In addition to their regular studies, students are exposed to fre- quent public seminars, lectures, and discussions which are held at the Institute, and are required to conduct extensive field work in Morocco's major agricultural area. - 57 - 4.33 One of the main weaknesses of the system is that too much emphasis is placed on preparing high-level technicians, while the critical need for many more competent farmers and farm managers is being neglected. Farm management, as a unifying discipline, is absent from the Institute's curri- culum. A second weakness is that too many youth entering the system are from the cities. Few rural youth get the opportunity for advanced education, because they are ill-prepared by the rural school system. Increasingly, therefore, the country's agriculture will be directed by people with little or no rural background. Thirdly, there is a barrier existing between the Institute and the DRA. What little collaborative research does take place is strictly on an ad hoc basis, usually as a result of personal cooperation. Thus, what one institution is doing seems to be of little concern to the other. - 58 - V. CONDITIONS FOR LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT 5.01 The semi-arid conditions and the systems of land use and tenure of Morocco impose limits on expansion of meat and milk production over the short and medium-term. Production from cattle and sheep is constrained by feed deficiency. The situation has been amply documented in recent years by AID, FAO, and consulting firms under contract with the Government. 1/ Key indicators such as stocking rate (2.5 sheep/ha), offtake (22% for cattle, 34% for sheep), and output of meat and milk per animal characterize Moroccan livestock production as extensive. However, unlike some other countries with abundant land, Morocco presently lacks the necessary conditions to sustain extensive production. Nevertheless there exist good chances for developing livestock production provided (a) a destocking policy is rigorously followed, (b) the encroachment of crop farming on range is stopped and reversed; (c) forage crops are introduced into the crop rotation pattern, and (d) Gov- ernment follows producer-oriented price policies for meat as well as milk. There is some intensive milk production near the cities based on stall feeding with purchased forage or concentrates and occasional grazing of fallow fields. Most of the milk marketed in Morocco is produced by such dairies. 5.02 Production per animal varies with rainfall, management, and breed, but is generally low, due largely to malnutrition and diseases. Anthrax, brucellosis, sheep pox, and parasites are most frequent. Fodder production on extensive rangelands is limited by low rainfall, cold winters, and poor, shallow soils. Exploitative land use, overstocking, and invasion of tradi- tional grazing lands by cereal production are depleting the range. The problem is aggravated because most rangelands is collective and flock owners place more emphasis on animal number rather than quality. Under these cir- cumstances, firm range management and destocking measures which would regulate nomadic grazing, would infringe on traditional systems of land tenure (e.g., collectives, large private and government holdings), and would be unpopular. Under intensive production (e.g., irrigated or high- rainfall dairy), nutritional deficiency is due more to poor management than to insufficient forage. In the cereal production areas, cultivated forage cannot be more than a supplementary source of feed for economic reasons. It requires a combination of factors that do not yet exist for most Moroccan farmers: enough suitable land to satisfy their subsistence needs; consid- erable investment in animals and/or buildings and equipment; and a sustained, rather than seasonal, market for cultivated forage. The seasonal nature of the market for forage exposes most farmers to undue risks. Therefore, only some 100,000 ha with 60,000 in irrigated areas, are planted with alfalfa and clover. Another 60,000 ha are planted with annual forage, mainly oats-vetch. Agro-industrial by-products (beet pulp, wheat bran molasses, cottonseed meal) are available commercially to the few modern beef and dairy enterprises and few flock-owners use them as emergency feed. 1/ AID, Livestock Marketing in Morocco (1971); FAO, Livestock Reconnaissance Mission to Morocco (1974); Italconsult (1972); MARA, Etude pour l'Amenagement des Terrains de Parcours du Maroc Oriental (ERES, 1973). - 59 - 5.03 As noted earlier (Chapter II), most of Morocco's 4 million cattle, 15 million sheep and 6 million goats depend on grazing natural pastures, forest range, volunteer growth on fallow land and crop residue. For most producers livestock is a diversified activity. Thus, 58% of cattle-owning farmers also raise either sheep (33%) or goats (7%), or all three (18%). Likewise, 91% of sheep producers keep cattle or goats, or both. Consequently, the conditions of production are basically similar for the three, with added emphasis on sheep and goat production in the more arid areas. Cattle 5.04 Overstocking and underfeeding lowers the productivity of cattle. The liveweight of native cattle seldom exceeds 300 kg and annual milk produc- tion averages 530 kg/cow. Male animals are retained too long and sometimes make up 30% of a farmer's or a village herd. Four years elapse before the first calving, and subsequent calvings normally occur at intervals of 16-20 months. Small herds are typical for most of the 836,000 cattle. 90% of the livestock producers possess the equivalent of 5 or fewer adult animals (GAU) accounting for 70% of all cattle. Improved breeds are rare, except among larger producers and Government-owned operations. They consist of purebred or crossbred animals, mostly Friesian, with some Tarentaise, Brown Swiss, and Montbeliarde. Sheep 5.05 The importance of sheep resides in the large number of producers and the vast area they graze. Flocks occupy the major proportion of Morocco's grazing lands and large flocks are considered desirable by pro- ducers to reduce risk. Consequently, lambing rates vary between 60 and 100%, wool yields are only 1.2 kg/head and culling rate is about 20%. There are some 520,000 sheep producers. Small flocks are common; some 85% of producers have flocks below 50 head (accounting for 45% of the nation's sheep) and 31% of the farmers own less than 10 sheep. Transhumance plays an important role in the feeding pattern, though it probably does not involve more than 3 million head. It generally involves larger flocks of 200-300 head which leave the plains and steppe for the hills in the summer. Most transhumance involves relatively short distances. 5.06 Moroccan sheep breeds are the Timhadite, the Sardi, the Beni Guil and Demane. The Timhadite inhabits the Middle Atlas and its surroundings. The Sardi is found in the western and the Geni Guil in the eastern plains. The prolific Demane is found between Ksar es Souk and Zagora. Strains of these breeds, their crosses and a few hundred imported animals chiefly comprise the national flock. 5.07 Sheep producers are economically more affected by the scarcity and poor nutritive quality of grazing lands than cattle farmers. Under present circumstances, medium operators have no distinct advantage over smaller ones except for the amount of revenue which enables them to buy feed in emergency periods. As shown below, except for the proportion of sold lambs and produced wool, both small and medium producers operate according to-the same norms. - 60 - Under these conditions, supplementary forage, as proposed in Government programs, could boost lambing and weaning rates and increase the live weight per animal by 10 kg or more per head. PROTOTYPE SHEEP PRODUCTION UNITS Small Medium No. of sheep 40 100 No. of ewes 25 65 No. of lambs 18 45 Milk/year (1) 270 675 Wool (kg) 60 150 offtake Adults 8 20 Lambs 3 9 Meat (liveweight) (kg) 290 740 Milk sales (DH) 257 641 Meat sales (DH) 1,595 4,070 Wool (DH) 390 975 Gross Income (DH) 2,242 5,686 Source: Mission estimates. Goats 5.08 Raising goats for meat and milk is complementary to both cattle and sheep production. Goat production is important in meeting basic sub- sistence needs of rural families and excess animals represents marketable savings that are sold at local souks. The rapidly rising number of goats (para. 2.06) suggests that they are becoming a serious cause of damage to vegetation and possibly contribute to erosion. Eventually, goat production would have to be discouraged by means of strict grazing legislation. Goats compete with sheep for forage; however, at least one-half of their intake consists of forage such as the arganier shrubs and other inferior vegetation not suitable for sheep or cattle. A. Milk Production and Marketing 5.09 Most of the milk produced in Morocco is not marketed. Approxi- mately 12% is processed by dairies, 8% is sold directly by vendors, and the rest is consumed where it is produced. As shown in Chapter I rising domestic demand for milk and butter is partly satisfied by increasing imports, even though 40% of the installed capacity of major dairy plants is not utilized despite recent rises in prices and other incentives offered by the Govern- ment. A milk price of DH 0.95/1 and incentives such as a 20% investment subsidy in physical structures and forage production are attractive only to already modernized and technologically efficient milk producers. - 61 - PROTOTYPE DAIRY FARMS Traditional Modern /2 No. of cattle 7 40 No. of cows 5 20 No. of calves 3 15 Milk/cow/year 500 1. 1,200 1. Cattle sold (liveweight) 350 kg. 2,700 kg. Milk sales (annual) 1,425 /1 DH 17,100 /1 Meat sales ( " ) DH 1,400 DH 10,800 Gross income (annual) DH 2,825 DH 27,900 Forage "cost"( " ) -0- n.a. Amortization of livestock (annual) -0- n.a. Purebred (5 years) DH 18,700 All Crossbred (4 years) DH 14,069 /1 Assuming no subsistence consumption which generally amounts for at least the support of 1 cow per family annually. /2 Purebred and crossbred. Source: Mission estimates. 5.10 It may seem simple to substitute more productive animals for the allegedly inefficient ones of the traditional producer and thereby raise output from 500 1/cow/year to 1,000 1. This seems an obvious solution, especially with a milk price of DH 0.95/1. In reality, the indebtedness a traditional producer would incur, plus the higher feed, veterinary, and in- semination costs leave little room for the risks involved in adopting an imported technology. Consequently, although the price of milk does not appear low relative to other consumer goods such as bread and meat, it is not sufficiently remunerative to encourage small producers to assume any additional risks. Small producers in rainfed areas who seek to modernize need an assured supply of forage, preferably from their own land, to profit from the low opportunity cost of their labor, since an imported dairy cow will cost DH 5,000 and a cross-bred DH 2,500. Thus, although milk marketing is rapidly being improved, with government financed collection centers, the transition from traditional to modern systems of milk production will be slow, and will depend on improvements in availability of low-cost forage and feed, relatively lower cost of other factors, viz, animals, physical structures and veterinary care. B. Meat Production and Marketing 5.11 Future increases in meat production will have to originate in higher carcass weights, rather than processing more animals. So far, average carcass weights have not greatly changed for 10 to 15 years and - 62 - are 116 kg for cattle and 12 kg for sheep. Without additional forage and feed at remunerative prices, carcass weights cannot be expected to increase significantly. Fattening operations, which have been expanding, especially for lamb, cannot compensate for depleted grazing range and poor pastures for all cattle herds and sheep flocks. Such operations are profitable only as long as the price of meat rises as it did recently. Given the preference of consumers for lamb and mutton, and its scarcity relative to beef, beef has a price advantage and is available in larger volume. However, the constraints on expanding production apply equally to both. 5.12 Livestock marketing poses no major problem of an organizational or logistic nature. Two systems of slaughtering absorb all the animals that can be sold and farmers receive an adequate share of the final market value of the meat. Approximately 90% of the cattle and 50% of the sheep and goats are slaughtered in controled abbatoirs and then pass through the marketing chain to retailers. Under this system farmers receive 75-85% of the final sales value. Under a second system, butchers buy directly from producers at the souks, thereby enabling farmers to receive 80-90% of the final sales value. C. Government Services and Investment for Livestock Development 5.13 The Livestock Department of MARA concentrates its work on the operation of several stations and farms for the production of breeding animals and experimentation, and diagnostic and preventive veterinary services. Its staff of 766 technical and 1,078 support personnel is insufficient to cover most needs, especially in the vast rangeland, and has very little depth with which to.provide technical assistance to live- stock producers. Professionals in livestock production are assigned to each Provincial Service of MARA, but their responsibilities are concentrated on veterinary services and the administration of subsidy programs, plus over- sight of one or more pilot project such as in Marrakech and El Kelaa. In other areas, such as Oujda, a pilot project in Ain Beni Mathar is administered directly by the regional chief of MARA's provincial service because no qual- ified professional and support staff is available. Very little livestock extension work is conducted in rainfed areas. 5.14 Training facilities are basically adequate, comprising the National Agricutural and Veterinary Institute (IAV) for veterinarians and livestock technicians, and the agricultural school in Meknes. The Institute graduates 10 veterinarians and 10 livestock technicians annually while the Meknes school strains about 20 livestock specialists. For extension per- sonnel a livestock school near Kenitra provides training for 100 "adjoints" and 100 agents yearly. The Livestock Department's intent to expand training facilities should concentrate on enabling the training institutions to attract and train a larger number of persons for applied research, range management and extension work. - 63 - 5.15 Except for the work of the livestock department of the LAV, very little research is done in livestock. The IAV research, carried on concur- rently with its curriculum, concentrates on crossbreeding of local animals with imported breeds and a few nutrition and fattening trials. Its sheep breeding program is especially promising. It concentrates on two extremely prolific breeds, the Demane, an Arabic desert sheep and the Finsheep both of which frequently produce twins or triplets. The research program so far is limited to the collection of basic data on the Demane and its behavior and performance. Virtually no research is directed at improving sources and quality of feed and forage under prevailing conditions. It would be highly desirable to evaluate recent attempts to improve pastures and forages, in- cluding fertilizer response. The AID financed project in the Plaine d'Arid and the range project in the Mamora forest near Kenitra undertook work in these areas. 5.16 Government investments for livestock development are administered by the Livestock Department, except for small amounts invested in the ORMVA and credit of the CNCA and other sources. Because of restricted investment in livestock during the 1968-72 Plan, DH 206 million was budgeted for the 1973-77 five year plan. The composition of investment according to major purposes indicates a strong emphasis on veterinary services and genetics relative to the more pressing problem of nutrition, especially range im- provement. INVESTMENT FOR LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT (Million DH) 1968-72 1973-77 1973-75 /1 Plan /1 % Plan /2 % Expenditure % Veterinary services 16.9 18 63.0 30 24.0 29 Animal Nutrition 20.7 23 43.0 21 23.1 28 -- Rangelands (7.4) (11.9) -- Emergency feed (15.5) (11.2) Genetic improvement 50.3 55 51.0 25 28.9 34 Marketing 3.8 4 49.9 24 7.8 9 -- Milk (45.0) 7.6 Total 91.7 100 206.0 100 83.5 100 /l Actual expenditures. /2 Planned expenditures, not including adjustments made in 1974. Source: Plan de Developpement Economique et Social 1973-77, Vol. II and MARA, Rapport sur L'Execution du Plan Quinguennal, 1973-77 (1975). - 64 - 5.17 As shown in the table below a very large proportion of investment outlays so far realized during the 1973-77 plan has been to equip the Livestock Department with land, buildings, material, and to finance current expenditures and subsidies. These combined represent 78% of the DR 83.5 million spent in 1973-75, while only DH 12 million was spent on rangeland improvement projects and DH 7.8 million on marketing, mostly for milk. Such a pattern of expendi- tures in the context of a development plan for livestock development has several ramifications: a. very little directly productive capital formation takes place, especially for purposes where it can have most direct impact; b. buildings and equipment of the Livestock Department rep- resent "sunk cost" if, as it appears, they do not generate either increased output of meat and dairy products or a higher level of productivity per head, and are seldom used to full capacity; c. if production and income effects are desired from subsidies for investment in livestock development as stated under the Agriculture Investment Code (para. 6.04, Appendix 2), their effectiveness as an incentive for private investment would be more likely if most were financed as rebates after an increment in output had been achieved. This should be simple since most investment is financed through CNCA. The table below shows the breakdown of expenditures in greater detail. PURPOSE AND COMPOSITION OF EXPENDITURES FOR LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT DURING 1973-75 (Million DH) Buildings Operations & Program & Equipment Subsidies Investment Veterinary services 13.0 10.6 Animal nutrition - - - -- Rangeland - - 12.0 -- Emergency Feed 11.2 _/I - - Genetic improvement 14.5 14.4 /2 - Marketing - - 7.8 - Milk - - (7.6) Total 38.7 25.0 19.8 % (46%) (32%) (24%) /1 Includes fattening operations, feed manufacturing and emergency forage sheds and supplies. /2 Includes expenditures for subsidized purchases of breeding cattle. Source: MARA, Rapport sur L'Execution du Plan Quinquennal, 1973-1977 (1975). -65 - D. Range and Pasture Improvement 5.18 In order to produce more feed for cattle, sheep and goats, and thereby increase meat output, the stocking rate will have to be lowered in both the steppe and cereal production areas. The vegetation of the steppe, where rainfall varies from 100-300 mm/year, consist of small desert shrubs, including alfa grass (Stipa tenacissima) in low rainfall areas, mixed with Artemesia alba, with increasing rainfall, and almost pure Artemesia in areas of over 200 mm of precipitation. Alfa grass is grazed only in severe drought. periods when the livestock take the young shoots. It provides about 40 Feed Units (FU)/ha, compared with Artemesia, which supplies about 150 FU/ha and requires about 2.5 ha to carry one sheep. The cereal production zones, with 300-600 mm of annual precipitation, provide straw and grazing of stubble and weed fallow. The forage yield is low, probably not more than 150 to 200 FU/ha, and there is scope to increase it by substituting medic pastures for weed fallow. 5.19 In attempts to improve pastures in the steppe and intermediate zones in the Atlas and Rif at least six types of projects are underway, of which the following are representative of conditions for cattle or sheep production in one or more zones. a. El Hadra: West of Marrakech, consists of 6,000 ha being developed jointly by the Departments of Livestock, Forestry, and the DMV at a total cost equivalent to US$1.2 million. This approach follows an example of a 1,000 ha WFP project of cactus plantation undertaken in the 1960s (Skura) and since closed to be kept as emergency forage. b. Ain Beni Mathar (formerly Berguent): 20,000 ha in the steppe south of Oujda in the Oujda Province, and based on the ERES (Etudes et Realisations Economiques et Sociales) feasibility study. It involves collective land where annual rainfall is about 240 mm; total cost will be equivalent to US$2 million. It includes watering points for flocks, irrigated alfalfa production and restricted grazing (see para 6.07). c. Plaine d'Arid: Originally an AID financed project (1968-1974) where 2,000 ha of collective land have been sown with inter- mediate wheatgrass (Agropyron intermedium) at a cost of US$60/ha. Annual rainfall averages 320 mm. During the next five years, 25,000 ha will be sown with the same species expected to yield about 1,000 FU/ha 1/. Present vegetation of Artemesia alba yields about 150 FU/ha. The project would benefit 2,000 families with about 70,000 sheep. 1/ One Feed Unit (FU) is equivalent to one kg of barley. - 66 - d. Imin-Tanout, Chichaoua, and an area Nortwest of El Kelaa: 3,000 ha of hills with contour planting of fruit trees, often almonds, interspersed with spontaneous grasses. These areas would serve as forage reserves for emergencies and are admin- istered by the Department of Water and Forestry. e. Mamora Forest, near Rabat: A project to combine forage pro- duction with forest conservation also designed to provide forage reserves in periods of drought. This project is ad- ministered by the Department of Water and Forestry and is carried out with UNDP/FAO assistance. 1/ f. El Boroul, south of Settat: The government has distributed 14,000 ha to 300 farmers organized in 8 cooperatives for the purpose of grazing sheep; the project is in the 200 mm rain- fall zone. 5.20 The above projects share several common features, among which the most important are: - They are all experimental; - Cooperative organization, with grazing rights within the project area subject to a limitation on the number of animals; - 70% of the capital costs are to be repaid by the cooperative; the Government assumes responsibility for the balance and operating costs; - Feed for fattening lambs, produced from small irrigated areas, such as in Chichaoua and Ain Beni Mathar, or from reseeded range in Midelt in the Plaine d'Arid; - Basic facilities for watering, dipping, and veterinary services. 5.21 These and similar projects have not yet yielded conclusive results but some are promising. Unresolved technical, economic and social problems emerge concerning: availability and costs of supplying water, including drilling and pumping equipment; capital investment/head; management of the improved range, fattening operations and marketing of surplus stock; a soundly-based destocking policy to apply whenever pasture is being overgrazed; and participation of small and medium flocks. The unresolved questions may overshadow all the positive features of these projects, especially in view of the ingrained habits of nomadic livestock producers and the intractable problem of collective lands. Ideally, increased emphasis should be given in these areas to breeding while fattening of weaned lambs be undertaken elsewhere. 1/ MARA, Project FAO/PNUD, Donnees de Base pour le Plan d'operation, 1975 (p. 24. - 67 - 5.22 Forage production in the cereal-producing regions could be consider- ably increased with the Australian practice of incorporating a legume-pasture phase into the crop rotation. This would restore soil fertility, increase crop yields and make better use of unproductive fallow lands by integrating cereal cropping with livestock production. Based on the experience of Tunisia, its technical feasibility under similar dryland farming conditions in Morocco, would seem assured, but widespread adoption is expected to be slow because of traditional land use and the pressure on land for growing crops for human con- sumption. 5.23 Legume pastures would be a part of the ley-farming system. Its essential features (Appendix 1) consist of suitable self-regenerating legumes chosen according to soil, climate and cropping rotation. They could be annual medicago and/or subterranean clover cultivars which are sown into the stubble. An adequate supply of phosphate and shallow cultivation are important. Manage- ment practices in the first year should aim at good seed yield for regenera- tion in subsequent years. Once established and properly managed, these legume pastures can yield up to 4,000 kg dry matter per ha in regenerating stands compared to 500 kg from weedy fallows. The nitrogen content of the soil will be increased considerably, along with the physical condition of the soil and crop yields. With limited costs of DH 160/ha a capital investment of DH 5,136 for a rotary mower (for each 50 ha) and periodic applications of phosphate, the carrying capacity of fallow land.would increase from 0.5 sheep/ha to 4.0. The value of additional live weight per ha. would amount to approximately Dh 239 for a two-year rotation and DH 160 for a three-year rotation. The estimated stream of benefits would be equivalent to a rate of return greater than 30% for the two-year and three-year rotation. 5.24 Other Government-sponsored projects, through the National Livestock Development Association (SNDE), aim to increase meat production through stock companies, with equity of Government (60%), farmers (30%) and King Ranch (10%). This activity is based on the King Ranch model ("Adarouche" near Azrou) where purebred Santa Gertrudis and crossbred cattle are maintained on improved pastures. Because of the equity requirements for participating in SNDE enter- prises, it is probable that they will benefit mainly medium and large livestock producers. No economic or financial data is available to asses the feasibility of such proposals. 5.25 One of the major constraints to livestock production has been the absence of any well-defined government policy, due largely to considerable ignorance of the nation's range and livestock resources. To alleviate this situation, the National Rangelands Commission (Commission Nationale des Parcours - CNP) was recently established to study proposals for rangeland improvement. The Ministries of Agriculture, Interior, Public Works, and their specialized departments involved in rangeland management all partici- pate in the Commission which has been given broad terms of reference to produce a general report before the end of 1976 dealing with the following: - 68 - - survey of the present land use and livestock management on arid and semi-arid rangelands; - inventory and location of collectively held rangelands, including their ownership and legal status; - water resources potential, proposed projects such as watering stations, equipment required, and costs; - agronomic research applicable to arid rangelands; - development projects prepared or underway. 5.26 Once the general report of the above topics is submitted more con- centrated studies would be conducted on specific actions for the improvement of rangelands. This would include criteria for project selection and design, budgetary proposals, and long-range investment plans. - 69 - VI. IRRIGATION AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 6.01 Irrigation is vital to the development of agriculture in Morocco for the reasons explained in the preceding sections. Morocco has approximately 1.4 million ha of irrigable land, though there are varying estimates as to the feasibility of irrigating all of this area. I/ In 1976, 770,000-880,000 ha of land were irrigated, including some 500,000 ha employing traditional means and 350,000 equiped with modern water distribution facilities. The area presently irrigated represents 11% of the arable land, and contributes an estimated 24-26% of agricultural GDP. Fully-developed irrigation potential could contribute on the order of 40% to the sector's GDP. However, another decade may be needed for the ambitious plans and investments launched during the 1960's to reach fruition. Such plans include reservoirs and distribution systems for 790,000 ha in 9 Offices Regionaux (ORMVA's) and the modernization of small and medium irrigation systems for 275,000 ha located outside the 9 perimeters. Plans for the 220-290,000 ha supplied by winter or spate irriga- tion are still indefinite. A. Types of Irrigated Agriculture 6.02 Irrigated agriculture in Morocco varies from the fully irrigated plains such as the Tadla to the spate irrigation of a few sectors with the erratic discharge of pre-Saharian streams. Among the more typical, how- ever, are the large perimeters and small and medium size Petite et Moyenne Hydraulique (PMH) schemes which supply water to areas ranging from a few hundred to 5,000 ha. The largest and most complex "perimeter" is the Gharb Basin with 240,000 ha in which three types of agriculture coexist: (a) modern irrigation financed and administered by the Regional Office (ORMVA's); (b) privately financed pump irrigation which may be efficient or rudimentary and, (c) rainfed agriculture. Similar systems exist, such as the Haouz, near Marrakech, and the Lower Moulouya, near Oujda. The challenge in systems such as the Gharb, lies in achieving an economically and socially efficient manage- ment of a basin in which only a part of the land can be irrigated, but where irrigation with complementary technology and services can have a far-reaching effect on the agricultural transformation of the area as a whole. In other words, irrigation infra-structure in the perimeters is a necessary but not sufficient condition. Irrigation is a prerequisite for some but not all crops. Sugar cane, rice and cotton need assured supply of water, while others, (e.g., sugar beet, wheat, oilseeds) can be produced either with or without irrigation, though they can greatly benefit from it if complementary measures are introduced. 1/ For example, estimates of irrigable area for the Haouz system vary from 112,000 to 288,000 ha, depending on the documentary source and assump- tions regarding groundwater, frequency or seasonality of irrigation, and quality of soils. - 70 - AREA AND SYSTEMS OF IRRIGATION ('000 ha) End Ultimate Type of Irrigation 1957 1961 1967 1972 1977 goal Modern ORMVA 85 130 140 258 473 795 PMH 50 60 60 70 91 290 Total 135 190 200 328 564 1,085 Traditional Perennial 275 275 275 232 187 - Winter 100 100 100 100 100 100 Spate 190 190 190 190 190 190 Total 565 565 565 522 477 290 TOTAL 700 755 765 850 1,041 1,375 6.03 Irrigated agriculture is managed by either regional authorities for reclamation and development) Offices Regionaux de Mise en Valeur - ORMVA), where major watershed management is involved and civil works required, or by the Provincial Agricultural Services for small irrigated areas. There are presently 9 Regional Authorities 1/ (ORMVA) and 16 Provincial Services. The large schemes managed by the "offices" covered a total area of 350-400,000 ha at the end of 1974, and are expected to expand to about 475,000 ha at the end of the present development Plan. 6.04 The various PMH projects generally involve the modernization of already irrigated crop areas and very few involve the irrigation of new land. Holdings are generally smaller than 10 ha and production consists of both fruit and crops. The Oued Za and Tadert projects, near Taourirt and Guercif, respectively, are typical, as well as small systems which have deteriorated such as the one near Debdou. Because of the scarcity of water in relation to the needs of farmers, PMH schemes stress the reduction of water losses and, where possible, locating additional sources of water. They can be entirely new schemes or the rehabilitation and expansion of existing schemes. Some may be proportionally as complex as the larger irrigated perimeters and include land consolidation or resettlement, on-farm development, land leveling, drainage, farm roads and extension services in addition to water distribution. Others may be relatively simple, consisting of seasonal irriga- tion, the production of forage, or, simple watering stations for cattle or sheep. 6.05 PMH schemes do not involve the construction of large structures such as storage dams, major main canals and tunnels although they often require the construction of systems of diversion, deepwells and pumping stations. However, water distribution within an irrigated area is similar irrespective of its size, and unit costs tend to be the same. Of course, rehabilitation projects might be less costly than entirely new ones although the difference is often - 71 - very small, but the net stream of benefits is normally smaller than for nev projects. In general, recent project costs suggest that PMH projects are r less expensive on a per ha basis than large irrigation schemes, although tt composition of the costs may be different. Moroccan authorities assert the traditional land tenure and water rights often complicate the PMH Project preparation, that the necessary surveys, water supply appraisals, test well etc., which are prerequisites of small schemes, are time consuming and raiE costs usually out of proportion with the size of the area to be irrigated. The fact that these projects are widely dispersed and thereby constitute a drain on manpower and equipment may justify this view, but not conclusivel) 6.06 The cost per ha for several types of PMH projects (at 1972 prices was estimated to vary from DH 2,200 to 18,000, depending on the type of projects. INVESTMENT COSTS OF SELECTED SMALL AND MEDIUM IRRIGATION PROJECTS Project Region Area Budgeted Costs /1 (ha) (Million DH) Tagannt Agadir 900 3.3 M'Ramer Safi 450 1.0 Amizmiz Marrakech 5,000 19.1 Oued Za Taourirt 2,500 9.2 Tigrigro Azrou 4,000 21.0 Assaka Khenifra 500 11.0 Skoura Fez 2,000 8.5 Inaouena Fez 2,500 36.0 Mharhar Tetouan 1,900 16.5 /1 Only for 1973-78 Plan period. Source: Table 8.2. 6.07 Because of their different character no generalization can be made about the economic viability of PMH schemes; their impact on non irrigated agriculture will vary according to concurrent changes in cropping patterns, yields, land tenure, etc. For example, an investment of DH 6,000/ha in selected areas such as Tadert and the Tadla might permit bread wheat yields to stabilize at 3 tons/ha. This would represent a 1.8 ton/ha increase over present yields. The value of this increased production, discounted at 6% from the fifth to the fifteenth year, would be superior to the original investment, assuming 1973 prices for imported bread wheat. However, calculations made on the basis of multiple cropping would produce a higher return. 6.08 Concerning investment in water resources for livestock, either to produce forage or to establish watering points, the effect of supplementary feed on a constant number of animals is the important criterion. Thus, one irrigated ha producing about 8,000 feed units annually can support 80 sheep during the 4-5 dry months, and result in a liveweight gain of 10 kg each. At the 1973-74 price of DH 5.5/kg liveweight, the net present value at 15% - 72 - the increase from the third through the seventh year exceeds the initial investment of DH 6,000/ha. For a more meaningful measure of returns, of course, the production costs of 1 ha of alfalfa need to be deducted from the stream of benefits. Another type of project is the system of deepwells to supply water to the sheep flocks and irrigate a few (10-30) ha of forage in the steppe. A capital investment of 700,000 DH per watering point supplies water and up to 15 ha of supplementary forage for 1,200 sheep. With an investment of approximately DH 600/head, similar weight gains can be achieved as above. B. Water Availability and Utilization 6.09 The scarcity of water is a major problem of PMH schemes because the discharge from rivers is already "budgeted" for ORMVA's, municipal and indus- trial use, and knowledge of the aquifer reserves is very scant. Furthermore, the prospect of finding new usable resources is limited and would require several years of systematic hydrogeological and geophysical research. It is estimated that such a program might increase useful underground water by 10 to 20%. This would not preclude the possibility of significant local discoveries. 6.10 Parallel with new exploration, water use regulations need to be en- forced. This is specially critical for new wells and pumping installations, where over-utilization and unregulated extraction from the aquifer may have long term adverse consequences. Other issues related to water utilization in PMH schemes are: - Irrigation efficiency is low. Water distribution should be closely regulated and water allocations kept at the minimum required for crops. A reduction of water waste would require better distribution systems -- foolproof gates, lined canals or underground pipes -- and trained water overseers. Concur- rently, cropping patterns should be more intensive in order to raise the productivity of land and other factors. - The infrastructure of PMH schemes is inadequate; a special staff and budget is required in each district. - Water charges in PMH areas, which are low or nil, should be reviewed and applied for at least the costs of operation and maintenance. - Closer coordination is needed between the several Government agencies involved in PMH at earlier stages of project iden- tification and preparation in order to accelerate the process of implementation and improve the operation and maintenance of the project area. - 73 - D. Prospects for Small and Medium Irrigation 6.11 PMH projects are ultimately expected to contribute some 575-580,000 ha to the long-range goal of irrigating 1.4 million ha. Most of the PMH area will be panted in cereal, forage, and vegetable crops. ACTUAL AND PROJECTED AREA PLANTED IN 1972 IN MAJOR CROPS IN SMALL AND MEDIUM IRRIGATION AREAS ('000 ha) Actual /1 Projected /1 Irrigable area 447.0 515.0 Area in crops 337.4 584.0 Cereals 239.7 278.0 Forage 34.6 14.1.0 Vegetables 35.1 105.0 Olives 28.0 60.0 /1 Area does not exactly match figures on p. 70 due to differing sources of data. Source: MARA, L'Irrigation au Maroc (1975). 6.12 A major handicap in planning and executing PMH projects is the lack of a unified institutional structure for this purpose. Responsibility for the development of irrigated agriculture in Morocco is already divided between two ministries, and the responsibilities within the MARA are assigned to two of its major Departments, DMV and DER, plus the ORMVA's. Although the physical infrastructure eventually gets built for the large irrigation projects, the agricultural development is behind schedule in all cases, notwithstanding the responsibilities assigned to the DMV and DER. The same problems affect more the PMH than in the ORMVA's because the latter's decentralized operational responsibility is absent in the Provincial Services of the MARA. Neither the Provincial Services nor the CT's are adequately staffed or equipped to manage small irrigation districts. In the DER small and medium irrigation is the responsibility of the Rural Management Division, which is also concerned with other physical infrastructure: public buildings of the MARA, rural construc- tion, on-farm development works, etc. Its technical staff of 193, including 36 engineers, is small relative to the staff and resources concentrated in the rest of the DER and the ORMVA's for the large irrigated perimeters. Conse- quently, in order to undertake a major program of PMH in the rainfed areas of Morocco, the organizational concepts of the ORMVA's should be adapted to local needs within the Provincial Services. The PMH projects should be organized as irrigation districts with a small, tightly knit line organization of engineers, agronomists and supporting personnel, including extension agents. -74 E. Investment Level 6.13 Public investment in irrigation has represented the largest single share of resources allocated for agricultural development during the 1968-72 and 1973-77 development plans. During the 1968-72 Plan it accounted for DH 1.8 billion, or 58% of capital outlays in agriculture, including dams. For the current plan it is expected to amount to DR 3.7 billion, including dams, or 70%. Because dam construction is the responsibility of the Ministry of Public Works and Communications, the proportion of investment channeled through the MARA for irrigation is smaller: 40% in 1968-72 and 59% in 1973-77. ESTIMATED INVESTMENT FOR IRRIGATION (Million DH) 1968-72 1973-77 1973-75 Plan Plan Commitments Total Ariculture 3,141 5,203 2,325 Dam construction 951 1,484 533 /1 ORMVA perimeters 810 2,017 1,097 Small and medium 70 165 62 irrigation (PMH) TOTAL 1,831 3,666 1,692 /1 Estimated. Source: Tables 16.1 and 16.2. 6.14 PMH projects are allocated a very small share of resources in both the previous and the present plan. Few of the PMH projects included in the 1973-77 development plan will have started by 1977. This is evident in view of the small amounts obligated or spent at the end of 1975 -- DH 40 million as opposed to the DH 165 million contemplated in the plan. Thus, while proposed outlays for PMH during 1973-78 amounted to 8% of the total amount planned for irrigation (excluding dams), outlays after 3 years were but 5% the total amount obligated or disbursed for irrigation. There may not be any competi- tion for the allocation of resources between the ORMVA and the PMH schemes, in view of the fact that the latter's investments are channeled primarily through the Provincial Services. However, even though PMH projects are the responsi- bility of the DMV in the Plan, while construction funds for ORMVA projects are primarily funded through DER, it appears that the DER and DMV concentrate primarily on the elusive goal of irrigating 43,000 ha annually in the ORMVA. So far this goal has not been attained, but small and medium schemes seem to have become a residual in the process. - 75 - 6.15 Some issues come to mind regarding investment in small and medium irrigation resources in rainfed areas. The question of how much should be allocated for PMH projects is really moot at present in view of the lag between the Plan and commitments for all types of irrigation. The issue of whether to stress PMH projects in rainfed areas or to continue to concen- trate on the large perimeters merits more attention than the simple dichotomy between rainfed and irrigated areas. Inasmuch as rainfed agriculture refers to areas which overlap with the ORMVA's, future choices in project selection should be among possibilities for irrigation. While there is insufficient data for categorically recommending a massive program of irrigation in PMH, as a group they offer advantages over larger schemes: shorter gestation period, less indivisibility, ease of administration and access to extension, credit and marketing if organized into districts. Future investment programs for irrigation should, therefore, commit funds for conducting the necessary feasibility studies and resource inventories. Table 1.0 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY TOTAL AND AGRICULTURAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTION (Million DH at 1960 Market Prices) Year Total Agricultural % of Annual GDP GDP Total Variations (%) 1960 8,200 2,650 32 - 1961 7,930 2,260 28 -15 1952 8,900 2,870 32 27 1963 9,410 3,060 33 7 1964 9,470 2,990 32 -2 1965 9,690 3,150 33 5 1966 9,470 2,780 30 -12 1967 10,100 3,070 30 10 1968 11,380 3,980 35 30 1969 11,430 3,650 32 -8 1970 12,010 3,720 31 2 1971 12,620 3,950 31 6 1972 13,200 4,090 31 4 1973 13,380 3,640 27 -12 1974 14,640 4,150 28 14 1975 14,960 3,660 24 -12 1960-62 average 8,300 2,593 1973-75 average 14,326 3,816 1960-62/1973-75 4.3% 3.02Z growth per annum Source: IBRD estimates. (Note: ?reliminary for 1974 and 1975. MARA's Statistiques Agricoles 1969-71 shows updated GDP figures.) Table 1.1 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Agricultural GDP - Three-Year Moving Average (Million DH at 1960 Market Prices) Year Actual Three-Year Average 1960 2,650 1961 2,260 2,593 1962 2,870 2,730 1963 3,060 2,973 1964 2,990 3,067 1965 2,780 3,000 1967 3,070 3,276 1968 3,980 3,567 1969 3,650 3,783 1970 3,720 3,773 1971 3,950 3,920 1972 4,090 3,893 1973 3,640 3,960 1974 4,150 3,816 1975 3,660 Source: Table 1.0 MDROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Volume and Value of Agricultural Production (Average 1961-65. Annual 1966-75) Average Item 1961-65 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 ('000 tons) Wheat (durum & bread) 1,336 1,149 1,268 2,778 1,594 1,801 2,188 2,161 1,574 1,853 1,575 Rice, paddy 20 25 28 41 50 40 3 14 12 14 29 Corn 352 157 236 415 450 320 390 368 217 389 371 Barley 1,314 610 1,320 3,494 2,205 1,953 2,572 2,466 1,255 2,389 1,585 Oars 18 13 19 21 11 12 15 24 13 43 28 Sorghum 74 47 48 87 41 48 121 59 52 74 74 Other grains 22 14 17 24 10 48 26 17 13 15 16 Beans, dry 4 3 5 7 4 3 4 2 2 2 3 Broad beans 75 89 97 170 115 190 243 267 189 345 212 Lentils 15 9 15 18 20 20 16 20 11 27 34 Chick peaa 42 68 66 118 73 137 32 34 79 164 61 Dry peaa 34 30 32 47 41 60 50 62 37 124 98 Potatoes 193 275 205 160 300 275 275 280 280 275 275 Sugar beets 86 391 367 785 918 1,000 1,584 1,677 1,293 1,950 1,792 Tobacco 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 3 Cotton 6 8 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 6 5 Cottonseed 13 16 11 13 12 13 16 16 16 12 12 Flaxseed 6 3 3 5 7 3 3 5 1 3 2 Sunflower seed 6 5 9 4 8 21 12 25 18 14 25 Tomatoes 232 302 277 245 270 280 300 350 350 325 325 Oranges & tangerines 528 676 775 720 819 753 821 838 925 820 580 Lemona 7 9 5 5 3 3 8 4 4 3 3 Other fruits 13 17 15 13 8 5 15 8 10 17 16 Figs, fresh 76 59 65 65 60 60 65 65 65 65 65 Almonds (in shell) 18 20 24 14 13 13 12 19 13 17 10 Grapes 404 362 238 310 160 203 276 264 282 240 220 Dates 7L 95 75 100 100 100 75 100 90 95 50 Olive oil 25 18 18 50 16 30 55 30 35 30 20 Meats 154 168 174 175 180 175 175 180 175 210 220 Milk 421 501 520 525 535 525 535 550 525 525 350 Wool, greasy basia 15 20 Cross Value of Production (Million DII at constant prices) Crops 1,644.0 1,464.8 1,642.5 2,911.0 2,071.6 2,181.9 2,518.4 2,499.1 1,958.2 2,483.9 1,926.3 Livestock 602.6 670.0 692.7 696.2 722.6 703.8 702.8 738.3 723.6 798.0 733.2 Total agriculture 2,246.6 2,134.8 2,335.2 3,603.2 2,794.2 2,885.7 3,221.2 3,237.4 2,681.8 3,281.9 2,659.5 Total food 2,173.8 2,059.9 2,270.0 3,542.0 2,712.7 2,808.3 3,143.3 3,137.7 2,573.0 3,187.3 2.559.4 Indices of Production (1961-65 = 100) Crops 100 89 100 177 126 133 153 152 119 151 117 Total agriculture 100 95 104 160 124 128 143 144 119 146 118 Total food 100 95 104 163 125 129 145 144 118 147 118 Per cap. agriculture 100 87 92 137 103 103 111 108 87 103 80 Per cap. food 100 87 92 140 104 104 113 108 86 103 80 Index of Population 1961-65 - 12,375,000 100 109.5 113.0 116.7 120.5 124.5 128.6 133.0 137.4 142.1 146.6 Table 2.1 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Three-Year Moving Average of Gross Value of Agricultural Products (Million DH at 1961-65 Constant Prices) Total Food Year Agriculture Crops Livestock Only 1960 1961 2021 1418 603 1,972 1962 2075 1486 590 2,009 1963 2334 1743 591 2,259 1964 2478 1865 613 2,399 1965 2378 1741 638 2,248 1966 2362 1694 668 2,288 1967 2691 2006 686 2,624 1968 2910 2208 704 2,842 1969 3094 2388 707 3,021 1970 2967 2257 710 2,888 1971 3114 2400 715 3,030 1972 3047 2325 722 2,951 1973 3067 2314 754 2,966 1974 2874 2122 751 2,773 1975 Rates of growth 1961-1974-75 3.3%- 3.2% 2% 2.7% 1961-1970 4.6% 5.3% 2.4% 4.3% 1970-1974-75 .8% -1.5% 1.4% Source: Table 2.0 and U. S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Table 3.0 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY TOTAL AND AGRICULTURAL TRADE (Million DH) Year Imports Exports Balance of Trade Total Agricultural- Total Agricultural-1 Total Agricultural/L 1960 2,086.7 633.0 1,792.5 971.0 -294 338 1961 2,257.3 767.0 1,731.3 883.0 -526 116 1962 2,150.7 748.0 1,762.5 950.0 -388 202 1963 2,243.4 714.0 1,942.7 1,123.0 -300 409 1964 2,327.5 879.0 2,185.8 1,219.0 -142 340 1965 2,291.3 989.0 2,176.3 1,190.0 -115 201 1966 2,417.9 955.0 2,168.0 1,226.0 -250 271 1967 2,620.2 992.0 2,146.2 1,203.0 -474 211 1968 2,790.0 946.0 2,278.0 1,302.0 -512 356 1969 2,854.4 743.0 2,455.5 1,425.0 -389 682 1970 3,471.2 970.0 2,469.6 1,416.0 -1,001 446 1971 3,532.7 1,118.0 2,526.1 1,359.0 -1,006 241 1972 5,577.4 1,035.0 2,952.9 1,643.0 -625 608 1973 4,683.6 1,629.0 3,745.9 2,123.0 -938 494 1974 8,291.7 2,838.0 7,439.9 2,023.0 -852 -815 1975 10,393.7 3,485.0 6,237.6 1,698.0 -4,156 -1,787 /4 Excludes fertilizers and agricultural machinery Source: Office des Changes, Statistiques du Commerce Extirieur, 1975 - for Total Trade and its Annual Reports. ги�Косси АСК1С(11:fUKAL SL'СТОК S1IKVEY VOL11h4: ANO VALUE OF МАJОК АСК1L'ULTUI<AL ЕХ(Y31i'('S 1убЭ - 1975 1963-65/ ' 197Э-75 tem 1убЭ 1964 1уб5 lубб 1уб7 1968 196у 1у70 1y71 1972 1Ч73 1974 1975 (196Э-65=1д0) ---------------------------------Volwue 1n 'U00 tопи--------------- --------------------------------------------------------- Cltruв 355.2 476.2 4L6.0 433,3 496,5 56Ч.5 551.5 ЬОЗ.О 527.Ч 5В5.б 700.1 544.7 445.7 136 Тотвtиев 129.6 117.1 140.7 107.3 120.0 103.7 133.2 1Э9.1 13 L 2 119.5 173.2 145.7 ' 144.0 1L9 Риlыев 137.6 59.4 170.3 91.6 94.5 209.0 187.0 245.0 131.0 255.0 187.5 144.Э 119.2 123 O11ve о11 , 8.7 2.8 1.2 15 4 1.7 2.4 Э1.7 5.Э б.б Э3.9 21.5 20.5 1Э.Э 4Э5 Ollveв (сыnпед) n.d. п.д. 10.5 10.6 8.8 15.2 21.4 14.2 27.Ч ЭЬ 7 3U.3 Э4,Э 2Э.2 - РоСаСоеы 80.8 89.2 10Э.0 86.4 7U.0 85.4 49.0 66.0 69.4 82.9 90,2 71,2 7В.3 88 Чine п.д. и.д. 147 0 145.0 111.8 6G.3 90.2 86.0 33.6 65.2 1ЭЭ.0 63.0 45.5 - Сетевlы 302.4 185.3 108.6 ЭВ.Ь Э1.Э 4В.4 216.0 169.2 35.0 44.0 34.5 Эд.4 34.0 17 Сыиnед frulta 6 vкgeCablee п.д. n.d. п.д. 17,1 20,9 23.3 21.0 20.В 21.0 Э2.Ч 48.0 37.5 ЭО.О - i�'rult 6 vegeCeble ]иiсев n.d. n.J. n.J. 31.Э 2В.3 25.8 Э8.5 35.0 18.0 21.0 24.4 19.U 12.0 Аlиюnдв n.d. п.д. 5.4 п.д. 5.Э 3.4 3.7 3.4 Э.Э 4.5 5.3 2.1 .9 - Cotton 4.1 6.5 6.5 5.8 9.6 5.7 6.1 5.9 4.5 7 J 7.8 Э.О .5 ЬЬ 1lигве тсаС - - - ,5 .2 .8 .7 1.8 Э.О 2.7 Э.б 2.5 1.7 - ----------------------------------Velue in u�1111on D11 ---------------'------------`--- ------------------------------------------ С1Сгив 255.9 Э11.4 314.1 Э34.б Э45.9 420.4 388.5 357.Э Э89.1 428.5 494.0 Эд8.4 406.4 Тотдсоев 1pq,g 128.5 136.9 148.5 174.7 145.6 180.2 152.8 1Ь2-8 179.1 229.5 182 7 172.6 Риlвев 7Э.0 45.5 104.2 62.0 58.5 11Э.5 105.0 146.0 88.3 1Э5.0 181.0 15В.Э 118.4 O11ve oi1 ЭЬ.О 6,1 3.4 4Э.б 5.5 7.2 88.2 16.0 20.6 109.2 101.Э 147,0 9Э.8 011vеы (canned) n.d. n.d. 14.Э 16.9 25.3 2Э.0 Э1.б 23.0 47.8 56.5 52.6 )5.4 72.1 Potatoea 40.Э Э1.2 4Ч.5 59.2 47.Э ЭВ.б 25.0 40.Э 37.7 46.8 55.6 В1,5 7Э.б Ч1пе n.d. n.d. 8б.0 59.Э 56.2 23.9 Э9.0 42.9 19.6 Э1.б 8В.7 46.5 36.5 Cereala 88.4 56.5 39.2 17.7 23.7 51.7 17.9 50.6 20.7 Э2.0 34.0 43.3 61.1 свппеа 1ги1Св ь vеgеСвыев п J. n.d. п д. 11.5 1Э.9 zв.4 эо.о э1.о Э7.з а7.э 72.в 86.9 7э.о Fru1t Ь vegeeable julcea п.д. n.d. n.d. 21,6 18.8 23.7 Э5.5 Э7.8 22.0 Э1.0 32.0 26.0 L8.0 Аlгпипдв n.a. n.d. ЭЗ.Э п.д. 29.6 17.6 27.4 25.2 27.5 41.3 ь3.2 25.5 6.G СоССоп 17.В 29.4 'L9.5 25.4 40.2 25.5 30.4 28.Э 22.7 39.1 42.5 24.4 3.5 1lorse шед[ - - - 1.8 1.1 3.3 2.6 6.8 12.4 12.3 18.8 14.5 10.1 Tuta1 808.1 840.9 942.U 1,061.Э , 854.6 Ч08.5 1,192.3 1,464.Э 1,300.4 1,145.1 OCher food 6 agrlculturel exporta 417.9 362.1 ЭЬО.О ЭЬЭ.7 561.4 450.5 450 J 657.0 722,6 552.9 No[е; п.д. - по даСа � Sоитсев: Offlce дев Changeв впд МАКА Еог 1966-1975, and FAO 7'rade Yearbook Еиг 1y63-1966 �, w Ми¢исс0 ' АСК1г:111:11пгА1. SF.C'ГиИ SUИVFY Vi4.11ptE AND VALl1E U1' ИА111Н АСИ1С111:1'11НА1. 1ММ1И1'S 1Ч6Э-1971 � 1963-65/ 1Ч7l-75 Itcm 1ЧГ,Э 1964 1965 1Ч66 1ЧЬ7 1'168 1ЧЬЧ lЧ70 1971 1Ч72 1Ч7Э 1Ч74 1975 {t563-65=►00) ---°-----------------°----'- ---' Уоlшве 1п •0(Ю tддs -------------°---°-°-------------------------------° °- SиЕг иЬивt 117.1 ltlП.4 227.0 5Э7.Ч 855.2 5Ч1.5 98.5 Э58.4 671.6 ЭВ2.4 ЧU4.Ч 777.7 1.307.6 56Ч F1ипг 51,3 71.0 61.6 Э4.В Э3.0 27.4 Э6.2 5.2 - - - - - - Sugar 1 Э7Э.9 Э8Э.8 37Э.2 Э4Э.б ЭО5.4 281.6 25J.0 277.0 246.4 222.0 27tl.0 286.5 't67.3 ]4 vе�е[вь►ы о[1вL ьЧ.4 2o.s 71 s ь4.э 46.6 еЭ.б 4о.5 ьа.о 86.7 84.э 105.Ч 122.7 16о.е дh5 Coffee 1о.7 В.5 Ч.ь ч.о п.г 12.о 1о.ч 15.7 11.2 13.о 12.2 и.Э t2.3 5Hb Тиа � 9.tl 1Э.0 8.1 1U.2 12.8 15.5 17.6 14.2 12.9 12.4 10.4 15.9 13.6 129 Delry ргидис[в Соnдепвед m11k 8.6 7.Ч 8.8 6.9 8.7 Ч.8 9.tl 10.4 12.7 17.0 1Э.0 16,4 1L 4 161 Ury mllk 2.0 4.5 2.2 2.8 3.6 Э.2 3.7 3.4 2.9 2.9 2.4 Э.5 7.4 107 Ии[[вr 5.7 4.2 3.7 5.8 11.3 20.4 25.7 24.6 8.4 Э.9 5.0 9.Ч 11.9 1Ч7 Checsn 3.0 2.7 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 Э.О 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.6 106 011ыеедв 3.2 11.5 Ч.з 5.0 27.Э 26.В 1В.0 16.2 11.5 11.5 15.Э 7.0 7.0 122 Animel fвte 11.5 10.5 1'[.Ь 14.2 l5.1 15.4 1U.4 16.0 14.0 15.8 12.2 13.8 12.5 111 Сиггоn � з.б 5.4 4.7 5.6 б.б tl.9 В.4 7.7 6.tl 4.5 9.2 Ч.О 12.8 2ЭЭ Рисв[оеь 40.4 40.б 77.2 ЭU.Ч 21.9 3t.9 23.8 24.9 2).3 2Ч.7 29.6 32.2 2В,9 77 ТиЬассп 4.0 4.6 Э.8 4.4 4.8 4.7 5.Ч 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.6 6.6 144 Чоо! .2 - .5 .2 .2 .Э .2 .В 1.Э l.9 l.3 1.0 Э.2 ]97 Flbera Oи[е впJ eleal) 6.9 5.4 7.А 7.6 Ч.9 11.9 10.В 15.2 15.0 15.7 1Э.4 16.6 14.0 228 --'------'-----'-----°--'----°---Vыlue tn millLun UH---------------------------------------------- ----------------°----------- Sofc ыЬеыс 3tl 2 о2.4 78.7 201.7 30l.2 21Ь.2 39.9 l"ЗО.О 24Э.0 1ЭЬ.9 48Э.4 70В.Э 9SY.B F1our 19.2 1G.1 22.8 L2.0 15.2 l0.! 10.Ч 2.2 - - - - - . Sugar 18Ч.9 ЭЭО.О 370.5 1Ч0.9 14tl.5 119.2 1о8.1 1Э7.Э 14tl.7 169.Э 245.U 6Э2.4 Ч)1.4 УеgесвЬlе olle 75.8 2s.o 1ое.е Ч2.2 57.z вь.о а4.о чо.о 141.s ►о2.Ч 165.8 а и.4 405.8 Coftee 2В S 29.7 Э0.5 Э2.5 ЭS.Ь Э5.2 ЭО.S 4Ч.1 71.7 35.1 47.0 50.5 67.5 Тса 50.5/4 69 Ь 4 56 О-/4 Ь4.4 67.6 tl2.1 103.7 tl�i.7 81.5 86.1 66.9 105.Э 104.5 Чhо1с, conJeneed Ь дгу m[1k 1Ч.0- 19.U1- 'lЭ.О`- 20.5 25.6 26.4 25.8 26.7 ЭS.В 79.Э 44.2 69.1 58.Э Оиггег Э.8 3.6 15.9 16.Ч 2Э.8 Э L 4 3l Ь Э4.з 25.7 17.7 16.2 Э4.б 49.8 Сhееые 2.0 !.8 Ч.4 8.2 8.6 В,б 8,8 у у 12.3 t2.6 12.2 15.з 1b.0 U1lыееды l.6 6.6 5.7 Э.Ь 15.2 15.7 10.5 12.4 8.0 у.3 25.2 1L.2 9.3 Аn1тв1 fв[ы 8.В 9.0 14.0 14.6 12.2 11.4 9.6 17,0 15.4 14.6 16.0 29.5 l9.9 Cu[[un 11.5 16 J 12.8 16.2 18.] 26.4 25.2 2Э.4 2Э.4 30.7 2Ч.U 57.6 55.4 Ро[в[оев l2.2 12.U l5.2 12.9 12.1 11.6 11.0 12.2 12.1 17.7 18.2 22.2 26.0 ТоЬасси !3.! lЭ.Ч 11.4 17.6 17.1 18.4 26.1 22.7 26.4 ЭО.Э ]2.6 ЭЬ.Э 49.0 Чии1 L Ь - 7.Ч l.2 .9 1.5 .9 5.Э В.б 12 J 1Э.5 12.В 28.Э F1Ьегв (juce ыпд в1ыа1) 10.6 Ч.4 17.3 11.0 l'J.5 14,2 14.0 18.2 16.9 20.) 22.2 4Э.Э ЭО.Ь L L 'lbtal 486.Э 624.tl J91.9 ]16.4 )75.Э 714.4 500,2 680,4 fЭ3i.0 7Э1.5 1 237.4 2.263.tl 2,84),б О[Ьег Food Ь agrtculeueet lироггы15 2z7.7L 254.2L 197.1 zз8.б 216.7 2з1.ь г42.8 28ч.б гЕS;.о з01.5 3Чl.л 57s.2 ьз7.4 2 On1y rapeaeeJ, ew�tloveC, palm, co[aunыend вnд виуЬслn и Ц. �Э Ч1�о1е m11k ексlидед. 1nсlидиы ро[в[оыв For ыеед впд соnыитреlип. /5 Ехсlидее value of иLо1и иtlk Juring 1ЧЬз-65. ь txcludua [гвс[огв, fert111zerв ыпд рев[1сlдеы. L UnoC[1с1ы1. Sourcue: Ot[1се деы СЬыпgиы ыnд ltARA tur 1ЧЬЬ-1Ч75, and FAO 'fn�Ju YcлrLouk fur 1ЧбЭ-1Ч66 _ � �i �i iu MOROCCO AGRiCULTURAL SECTOR SIJkVF.Y Major Agricultural Exports and Imports 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Value in million DII at 1966-67 average prices - --- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Exports Citrus 317.1 363.4 461.9 402.7 441.4 386.4 428.7 512.5 398.2 326.3 Tomatoes 152.6 170.6 147.5 189.4 198.6 186.6 169.9 246.3 207.2 204.8 Pulses 59.4 61.2 135.4 121.2 158.8 84.9 165.2 121.5 93.5 77.2 Olive oil 44.1 4.8 6.8 90.8 15.2 18.9 97.1 61.6 58.7 38.1 Olives (Canned) 23.0 19.1 33.0 46.5 30.8 60.7 74.8 65.9 74.6 50.5 Potatoes 58.8 47.6 58.0 33.3 44.8 47.2 56.4 61.3 48.4 53.2 Wine 65.3 50.3 28.9 40.6 38.7 15.1 29.3 59.8 28.4 20.4 Cereals 22.8 18.5 28.7 127.0 100.2 20.7 26.0 20.4 17.9 20.1 Canned fruits & vegetables 14.1 17.2 19.2 17.3 17.2 17.3 27.2 39.6 30.9 24.8 Fruit and vegetable juices 21.3 19.2 17.5 26.2 23.0 12.2 14.3 16.6 12.9 8.2 Al,.oiids n.a. 29.6 1.8.9 20.7 18.9 18.4 25.1 29.6 11.7 5.0 Cotton 24.6 40.7 24.2 25.9 25.2 19.1 32.7 33.1 12.7 2.1 Horse meat 2.0 .8 3.3 2.8 7.5 12.4 11.2 14.9 10.4 7.o Total 805.1 843.0 983.3 1,146.2 940.9 901.0 1,162.9 1,283.1 1,005.5 837.7 Imports Soft wheat 194.9 309.9 214.3 35.7 129.9 243.4 138.6 327.9 281.8 472.4 Flour 13.9 12.2 10.9 14.5 2.0 -- -- -- -- -- Sugar 179.6 159.7 147.2 132.3 142.8 128.8 116.0 145.4 149.8 139.8 Vegetable otle 86.6 62.8 112.6 54.6 80.8 116.8 113.6 142.7. 165.3 216.6 Coffee 30.3 37.7 40.5 36.7 59.9 37.8 43.8 41.1 38.0 41.4 Tea 58.5 73.5 88.9 101.0 81.5 74.0 71.2 59.7 91.2 78.0 Conden&ed milk 11.8 14.9 16.8 16.8 17.8 21.8 22.3 23.3 28.1 19.5 Dry milk 8.5 10.9 9.7 10.0 10.3 8.8 8.8 7.3 10.6 10.3 Butter 13.8 21.9 48.6 61.2 58.5 20.0 9.3 11.9 23.6 28.3 Cheese 8.2 8.6 9.4 10.2 11.0 12.3 11.5 11.9 11.9 10.6 Oilseeds 2.7 12.8 14.8 9.9 8.9 6.3 6.3 8.4 3.8 3.8 Animal fats 1 12.9 13.8 14.0 9.5 W6 12.6 14.5 11.2 12.6 11.4 Cotton 16.0 18.8 25.4 24.0 22.0 19.5 12.8 26.3 25.7 36.6 Potatoes 12.7 12.3 13.1 9.8 10.2 11.2 12.2 12.2 13.2 11.9 Tobacco 16.6 18.1 16.2 22.2 22.2 22.2 22.6 21.5 21.1 24.9 wool 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.0 4.2 6.8 9.9 6.8 5.3 16.8 Fibers (jute and sisal) 10.6 13.8 16.7 15.1 21 3 21.0 22.0 18.8 23.2 19.6 Total 665.7 807.7 800.7 564.5 697.9 763.5 635.4 876.4 905.2 1,071.0 Sotwce: Tables 3.1. and 3.2 Table 3.4 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Price and Quantity Effects on Major Agricultural Exports (Million DH in Current and Constant 1966-67 Prices) At current Prices At Constant 1966-1967 Prices Difference Difference Pricel Item Yearsl/ Value Value % Value Quantity % Effeci(%) Citrus 1966-1967 340.3 -- 340.3 -- -- -- 1970-1971 373.2 +32.9 +10 414.0 +73.7 + 32 -12 1974-1975 397.4 +24.2 +6 362.0 -52.0 - 13 +19 Tomatoes 1966-1967 161.6 - -- 161.6 -- -- -- 1970-1971 157.8 - 3.8 -2 192.6 +31.0 + 19 -21 1974-1975 177.7 +19.9 +13 206.0 +13.4 + 7 + 6 Pulses 1966-1967 60.3 -- -- 60.3 -- -- -- 1970-1971 117.2 +21.2 +35 121.8 +61.5 + 102 -67 1974-1975 138.4 +21.2 +18 85.4 -36.4 - 30 +48 Olive 0il 1966-1967 24.5 -- -- 24.5 -- -- -- 1970-1974 18.3 + 6.3 -26 17.0 - 7.5 - 31 + 5 1974-1975 120.4 +102.1 +558 48.4 +31.4 + 185 +373 Olives (Canned) 1966-1967 21.1 -- -- 21.1 -- -- -- 1970-1971 35.4 +14.3 +68 45.8 +24.7 + 117 -49 1974-1975 73.8 +38.4 +108 62.5 +15.7 + 34 +74 Potatoes 1966-1967 53.2 -- -- 53.2 -- -- -- 1970-1971 39.0 -14.2 -27 46.0 - 7.2 - 14 -13 1974-1975 77.6 +38.6 +99 50.8 + 4.8 + 10 +89 Wine 1966-1967 57.8 -- -- 57.8 -- -- -- 1970-1971 31.3 -26.5 -46 26.9 -30.9 - 53 + 7 1974-1975 41.5 +10.2 +18 24.4 - 2.5 - 9 +27 1/ Average of the two years. Source: Table 3.1 MOROCCO Table 3.5 AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY -ice and Quantity Effecta on Major Agricultural Imports (Million DH in Current and Constant 1966-67 Prices) Current Prices Constant 1966-1967 Prices Difference Difference Price Item Years 1 Value Value % Value Quantity % Effect(%) Soft wheat 1966-1967 252.5 -- -- 252.5 -- -- -- 1970-1971 186.5 -65.0 -26 186.6 -65.9 -26 0 1974-1975 834.0 +647.5 +347 377.1 +190.5 +102 +245 Sugar 1966-1967 189.7 -- -- 252.5 -- -- -- 1970-1971 143.0 + 26.7 +16 135.8 -33.9 +20 -4 1974-1975 801.9 +658.9 +461 144.8 +9.0 +7 +454 Vegetable oils 1966-1967 74.7 -- -- 74.7 -- -- -- 1970-1971 115.5 +40.8 +55 98.6 +23.9 +32 -23 1974-1975 410.0 +294.5 +254 190.9 +92.3 +94 +160 Butter 1966-1967 20.4 -- -- 20.4 -- -- -- 1970-1971 30.0 +9.6 +47 39.2 +18.8 +92 -45 1974-1975 37.2 +7.2 +24 25.9 -13.3 -34 +58 1/ Average of the two years. Source: Table 3.2 MOROCCO A-RICU.TIRAI. SECTOR SURVEY Supply and Utili.uction Trend of Nine Major Agricultural Commodities ('000 tons) 1905 1966 1907 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 198 1985 1990 Soft wheat Production 306 226 335 709 369 383 547 530 392 473 371 540 600 660 Imports 312 586 901 630 148 366 672 382 905 778 1J30 1,390 1 860 2,270 Total utilization 618 812 1.23 1,339 517 749 l2 912 1 2 1 1,930 2,460 2,930 Durum wheat Production & utilization 1,009 923 933 2,068 1,225 1,418 1,642 1,631 1,182 1,380 1,204 6 1,750 ,89 Barley Production & utilization 1,190 612 1,541 3,494 2,205 1.953 2,572 2,466 1,255 2,387 1,585 2,520 2,800 3,100 Corn Production & utilization 272 157 236 415 450 320 390 368 217 390 371 440 490 550 Edible oils and oilseeds- Production 7.8 5.0 2.5 4.0 5.2 12.4 6.2 15.5 11.3 12.8 15.0 20.0 25.0 36.0 Imports 80.5 58.7 64.0 94.3 47.4 66.0 90.8 89.7 110.0 128.0 160.0 200.0 265.0 285.0 Total utilization 88.3 63.7 66.5 98.3 52.6 78.4 97.0 104.2 121.3 141.0 175.0 220.0 290.0 320.0 Sugar /4 Production- 26 59 55 112 135 167 237 252 194 291 269 430 560 700 Imports 373 344 305 282 253 273 246 222 278 287 267 270 290 290 Total utilization 379 403 360 394 388 440 483 474 . 472 578 536 700 850 990 Milk- Production 419 455 464 507 529 520 505 524 523 521 525 590 630 680 Imports 178 246 346 579 713 690 292 190 221 360 317- 435 715 945 Total utilization 597 701 810 186L 797 714 744 881 842 1 34 Coffee Imports 9.6 9.0 11.2 12.0 10.9 15.7 11.2 13.0 12.2 11.3 12.3 14.8 16.8 18.5 Tea Imports 8.1 10.2 12.8 15.5 17.6 14.2 12.9 12 .4 10.4 15.9 13.6 14.5 15.4 16.3 1/ Projected on the basis of least square regression of population (x) with utilization trend (y). Rounded when possible. 2/ Production and utilization are assumed to be equal for durum wheat, barley and corn, although the pattern of demand may change o as suggested in Table 4.1. 3/ Oil equivalent of sunflower and cotton seed. 4/ Based on a 15% extraction of raw sugar from beeta. 5/ All dairy products expressed in milk equivalent. Data preliminary for 1975. 6/ Estimated. MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Utilization Trend of Nine Major Commodities /1 Commodity Utilization Year Soft Durum Edible Wheat Wheat Barley Corn Oils Sugar Milk Coffee Tea ------------------------------------------000 tons------------------------------------------ 1965 618 1,009 1,190 272 88.3 379 597 9.6 8.1 1966 812 923 612 157 63.7 403 701 9.0 10.2 1967 1,236 933 1,541 236 66.5 360 810 11.2 12.8 1968 1,339 2,068 3,494 415 98.3 394 1,086 12.0 15.5 1969 517 1,225 2,205 450 52.6 388 1,242 10.9 17.6 1970 749 1,418 1,953 320 78.4 440 1,116- 15.7 14.2 1971 1,219 1,642 2,572 390 97.0 483 797 11.2 12.9 1972 912 1,631 2,466 368 104.2 474 714 13.0 12.4 1973 1,297 1,182 1,255 217 121.3 472 744 12.2 10.4 1974 1,251 1,380 2,387 390 141.0 578 881 11.3 15.9 1975 1,675 1,204 1 585 371 175.0 536 842- 12.3 13.6 1980 1,932 1,150/2 1:22 376 217.0 698 1,025 14.8 14.5 1985 2,461 96 /2 96 /2 401 289.0 850 1,345 16.8 15.4 1990 2,926 908-- 634-- 423 324.0 985 1,625 18.5 16.3 /1 Based on the 1965-75 trend (y=a+bx), except for durum wheat and barley. 12 Assuming decline of 4% annually since 1969 (based on the function y = be") /3 Estimated. * TABLE 4.2 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Composition of Household Expenditures for Food in 1970-71 Urban Rural Average kg/person DE kg/person DH kg/person DH Cereal products/-L 158 120 245 124 216 123 Soft wheat 71 32 45 Durum wheat 74 91 86 Barley 5 92 63 Maize .3 23 15 Rice 2 .5 1 Others 4 7 6 Meat 24 159 15 81 18 107 Fresh meat 18 131 12 70 14 90 Poultry 3 18 2 8 2 12 Fish 7 15 2 2 4 6 Eags (number) 36 7 14 2 21 4 Milk products- 25 29 27 19 27 22 Sugar /3 26 51 31 61 30 58 Edible oils-- 12 31 10 30 10 30 Butter 4 14 2 9 3 11 All veget leo 124 61 71 28 89 39 All fruit- 48 34 46 18 47 23 Tea & coffee 2 27 2 25 2 26 Other foods 68 22 37 Total (current prices) 616 421 486 (constant 1960 prices) 492 336 388 Totals do not add because of rounding. /2 Excludes butter and cheese. /3 Vegetable and olive oil. Z4 Fresh, canned and dried. Source: Secrftariat d'Etat au Plan, La Consomation et les D6penses des MEnages au Maroc (Avril 1970 - Avril 1971), Vol. IV, Alimenta- tion et Nutrition. MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Estimated Per Capita Consumption of Major Foods (kg per person) 1959-60 1970-71 Urban Rural Average Urban Rural Average Ceregil 187.0 312.0 279.0 159.0 245.0 216.4 Milk-- 15.4 11.6 14.0 24.7 27.3 27.4 Sugar 28.4 36.8 34.7 26.5 31.2 29.7 Potatoes 29.8 14.2 18.3 24.2 17.0 19.5 Olive oil 4.8 6.2 5.8 2.3 6.3 5.0 Vege able oil 6.2 1.5 2.6 9.4 3.3 5.3 Meat- 16.6 8.9 10.9 20.4 13.0 15,5 Poultry 1.6 1.3 1.4 3.6 1.7 2.3 Fresh fish 4.0 2.3 3.1 6.8 1.7 3.4 Pulses 9.7 9.7 9.6 5.4 4.7 4.9 Butter 1.3 1.4 1.4 4.1 1.7 2.5 Tea 1.0 1.4 1.3 Coffee 1.3 .8 1.0 Total Consumption Ixpen- ditures per personAL 614 392 450 1,102 530 720 Expressed in grain equivalent. 3 Excludes butter and cheese. - All meat except poultry. At constant 1960 prices. Source: Same (p.154 for 1959-60) MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Estimates and Projections of Population and Labor Force (Thousand persons) 1950 1960/1 19711! 1973-/ 1980/2 19852 199012 2000 Total population 8,953 11,626 15,154 16,330 20,180 23,510 27,365 35,900 Urban 3,412 5,327 6,000 8,555 10,980 13,590 Rural 8,215 9,797 10,330 11,625 12,620 13,775 Labor Force/3 3,254 3,980 4,246 5,246 6,112 7,115 9,334 Urban 978 1,403 1,560 2,224 2,854 3,533 Rural 2,276 2,578 2,685 3,022 3,281 3,582 Employed 2,950 3,632 n.d. 4,760/ 5,542- 6,410L Urban 800 1,181 n.d. 1,890 2,425 3,003 Rural 2,150 2,444 n.d. 2,870 3,117 3,467 Unemployed_/ 305 349 n.d. 486 693 705 Urban 179 216 n.d. 334 429 530 Rural 126 133 n.d. 152 164 175 /1 Census years. L2 Estimates of the Delegation au Plan for the years indicated. L Assumes that labor force participation rate will remain at 26% of, population in both urban and rural areas from 1971 until 1990. - Figures for 1980, 1985 and 1990 represent new jobs needed, based on the employment in 1971, rather than projected employment. 5 Absolute employment only, which excludes disguised unemployment which is suspected to be very-high in rural areas. Source: Secr6tariat d'Etat au Plan and IBRD estimates. TABLE 5.1 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Economically Active Population by Sector, 1960 and 1971 (Thousand persons)/' 1960-71 Change 1960 1971 Number % Agriculture 1,834 1,988 154 8 Industry, mining & landscape 370 593 223 60 Commerce & services 641 895 254 40 Undefined (incl. unemployed) 409 504 95 23 Total 3,254 3,980 726 22 . Figures rounded. Source: Secretariat d'Etat au Plan 'TABLE 5.2 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Structure of Rural Employment in 1960 and 1971 (Thousand persons) Change (%) Work specialty 1960 1971 Total Annual Professional 45.2 59.9 33 2.6 Commerce 57.0 65.0 14 1.2 Administrative 7.4 14.8 102 6.6 Skilled workers /1 59.1 78.8 33 2.6 Operators and hired labor- 1,817.8 1,981.8 9 .8 (Crop & livestock production) - (1,908.4).L Non-farm unskilled workers 148.5 274.7 85 5.8 Miscellaneous 141.1 101.2 -28 - Total 2,276.1 2,577.2 13 1.1 1. Includes farmers, fishermen, and persons engaged in forestry, hunting, etc. /2 Further distributed between livestock (18%) and crop produc- tion (82%). Source: Secritariat d'Etat au Plan, Recensement Ggndral de la Population Table 6.0 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Land Availability and Utilization ('000 ha) 1960-61 1974! Projected Total area 45,000 50,000 - Non-agricultural land 22,500 22,000 - Range 10,800 11,000 - - grazing (8,000) (8,000) - - non-grazing (2,800) (3,000) - Forests 4,900 5,200 - Cultivable land 6,800 7,400 7,600 - fallow (1,675) (1,E0O) - - cultivated. (5,125) (5,600) - Cultivated land 5,125 5,00 5,800 irrigated 63nL2:. 750 1,400 - permanent (390) (460) 1,100 - seasonal (240) (290) 300 - non-irrigated (bour) 4,600 4,850 4,400 /1 Refers to "irrigable" rather than actually "irrigated" for 1960. T2 'stimated. Source: Data from the Secritariat au Plan, MARA, Statistiques Agricoles, 1969-74 and Table "ABLE 6.1 AGRICULTRAL SECTOR SURVEY MOROCCO Land in major Crops in 1974-75 ('000 ha) Irrigated Project Areas Hi3h-Rainfall Areas Lov-Rainfall Areas (Government-Controlled) (3 myear) ( - 350 mm/year) T 0 T A L Non Non Non Xon Irrigated Irrisated Total Irrigated Irrigated Total Irrigated Irrigated Total Irrigated Irrigated Total Crains 160.0 682.8 842.8 15.5 1,514.1 1,529.6 27.4 1,976.3 2,003.7 202.9 4,173.2 4,376.1 Pulses * 74.1 74.1 - 445.1 445.1 - 49.6 49.6 - 568.8 568.8 Oilseeds - 18.0 18.0 - 17.3 17.3 - - - - 35.3 35.3 Sugar Beets 28.4 27.0 55.4 - 2.3 2.3 4.3 - 4.3 32.7 29.3 62.0 Sugarcane 4.4 - 4.4 - - - - - - 4.4 - 4.4 Cotton 17.2 - 17.2 - - - - - - 17.2 - 17.2 Forage 42.8 6.0 48.8 6.5 37.9 44.4 10.3 - 10.3 59.6 43.9 103.5 Vegecables 35.0 4.0 39.0 28.0 18.0 46.0 19.2 - 19.2 82.2 22.0' 104.2 Other 2.2 - 2.2 - 10.1 10.1 - - - 2.2 10.1 12.3 Total Crops 290.0 811.9 1,101.9 50.0 2,044.8 2,094.8 61.2 2,025.9 2,087.1 401.2 41882-.6 5,283.8 Fallow - 177.2 177.2 - 719.4 719.4 - 887.9 887.9 - 1,784.5 1,784.5 Total Crops and Fallow 290.0 989.1 1,7. 50.0 2 2 61.2 2, 2,7.8 401.2 6, ,08 Citrus 63.2 - 63.2 9.0 - 9.0 1.7 - 1.7 73.9 - 73.9 Olives 98.5 - 98.5 60.0 86.1 146.1 55.0 - 55.0 213.5 86.1 300.0 Other Fruits 37.0 25.1 62.1 31.0 33.6 64.6 67.1 - 67.1 135.1 58.7 193.8 Total Fruits 198.7 25.1 223.8 100.0 119.7 219.7 123.8 - 123.8 422.5 144.8 567.3 Grand T.t-112 488.7 1,014.2 1,502.9 150.0 2,883.9 3,033.9 185.0 2,913,8 823.7 6,811.9 7A 635 -6 Total :rigte 430.7 150.0 167.0 823.7 /1 Figures for grain crops and fallow represent averages for the years 1970-75. Figures for other crops and areas in fruit production are for 1974-75 only. /2 Includes figures for double cropping and crops in association with fruit trees. 3 Includes small and medium-scale irrigation. Total represents area irrigated in a permanent manner or by stream diversion during the rainy season, but not areas irrigated as a result of stream overflow. Source: Statistiques Agricoles, MARA. Principales Productions Vegetales, Campagne 1974-75. December 1975. July 1976. MOROCCO TABLE 6.2 AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Actual and Projected Irrigated Crops (0000 ha) 1972 1975 1977/1 Full PotentialiL Goal Total ORMVA PMH Cereals 158.0 203.0/2 298.0 543.0 265.0 278.0 Rice 3.0 (6.2) 10.0 40.0 40.0 Pulses 5.0 - 12.0 6.0 6.0 Oilseeds .7 - 8.0 3.0 3.0 Sugar beets 28.5 32.7 35.0 48.0 +.0 Sugar cane 2.8 4.4 11.0 116.0 116.0 Cotton 17.7 17.2 36.0 34.0 34.0 Forage 57.1 59.6 115.0 230.0 89.0 141.0 Vegecables 65.2 82.2 140.0 175.0 70.0 105.0 Citrus 60.8 74.0 77.0 73.0 73.0 Olives 48.5 70.0/3 82.0 110.0 50.0 60.0 Vine 5.7 5.7 6.0 7.0 7.0 Almonds 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 Other field crops 9.0 2.2 10.0 16.0 16.0 Misc. tree crops 135.0 Total 463.7 549.8 841.0 1,403-0 809.0 574.0 /1 Figures for 1977 and "full potential" are drawn from various frequently divergent estimates and objectives stated in official Moroccan publications. For example, the unpublished data of the DMV projects only 233,000 ha of cereals under irrigation in year 2000, 73,000 ha of sugar beet, 134,000 ha of sugar cane and 218,000 ha of olive trees, compared with larger areas for cereal and less in olives given in other reports. The figures have been rounded and no adjustments needs to be made for double cropping and inter- cropping in view of their conjectural nature. /2 1975 cereal area given by MARA is a 1970-75 average which also includes rice, indicated below in parentheses. Estimate based on area reported as planted in L'Irrigation au Maroc, rather than the 213.5 ha reported by MARA. Source: MARA (DMV) and L'Irrization au Maroc, (1975) MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Area Planted with Major Crops in Modern Irrigation Perimeters-1 ('000 ha) 1966 1972 1977 Goal Irrigable area 180.0 275.0 406.0 Area in crops 158.0 259.3 478.2 Cereals 44.0 52.0 128.0 Rice 5.0 3.0 10.0 Pulses 3.0 5.0 12.4 Oilseeds - .7 8.6 Sugar beets 8.0 28.5 38.2 Sugar Cane - 2.8 9.2 Cotton 16.0 17.7 36.7 Forage n.d. 22.5 58.0 Vegetables 14.0 30.1 48.0 Citrus 48.0 60.8 77.4 Olives n.d. 20.5 34.5 Vine n.d. 5.7 5.7 Almonds n.d. 1.0 1.5 Other 20.0 9.0 10.0 / Includes figures for double cropping and row crops planted in association with fruit trees. Source: IBRD, Examen des Projets et Programmes Agricoles, (1967), and MARA, L'Irrigation au Maroc, (1975). Table 6.4 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Volume and Gross Value of Crop Production under Irrigation, 1961-65 and 1971-75 1961-65 1971-75 Unit l/ Volume Value Volume Value Price (Dh/ton) ('000 m.t.) (Million Dh) ('000 m.t.) (Million Dh) Bread wheat 375 - - 25.0 9.4 Durum wheat 375 100 37.5 143 53.6 Barley 222 220 48.8 231 51.3 Corn 313 40 12.5 40 12.5 Rice 521 20 10.4 14.4 7.5 Sugar beets 60 -- -- 108.0 64.8 Cotton 3289 6 19.7 7.2 23.7 Cottonseed 329 13 4.3 14.4 4.7 Tomatoes (50%) 218 116 25.3 165.0 35.9 Oranges & Tangerines 263 528 138.8 797 209.6 Lemons 213 7 *.. 1.5 4.4 .9 Grapefruits 227 13 2.9 13.2 3.0 Grapes (50%) 286 202 57.8 128 36.6 Olive oil (33%) 2692 83 22.3 11.3 30.4 Total irrigated crops 381.8 543.9 All crops 1644.0 2277.0 1/ 1960 constant prices. Sources: Estimates based on information from the DMV, Table 2.0, and Direction de la Statistique du Secretariat d'Etat au Plan, Resultats par Culture de la Campagne 1973-1974. ACRICULiTURAL SECTOR SURVLY MOROCCO Area in Maor Field Crop, 1967-75 ('000 ha) CROP YEAR OF HARVEST 1961-65' 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Barley 1,627 1,794 1,774.6 2,105.7 2,037.0 1,890.0 1,998.0 1,932.8 2,016.3 1,972.6 1,819.1 Durum Wheat) 1578 1,640 1,220.8 1,399.4 1,467.0 1,438.0 1,517.0 1,503.5 1,477.6 1,388.5 1,238.0 Bread Wheat) 1 430.9 530.4 478.0 454.0 489.0 494.9 561.7 528.5 453.1 Maize 442 440 471.4 498.5 465.0 510.0 453.0 480.9 446.4 447.3 491.7 Sorghum 12 6 79.0 63.7 55.0 59.0 83.0 65.8 53.5 70.5 58.2 Oats 23 22 21.6 21.0 23.0 19.0 19.0 24.2 20.2 19.2 32.3 Rice 5 6 5.4 7.8 10.0 8.0 1.0 3.1 2.7 3.8 6.2 Canary Grass N.A. N.A. 35.4 23.5 28.0 64.0 38.0 25.0 20.8 23.6 22.0 Other 33 34 7.7 37.5 26.0 21.0 54.0 47.1 81.6 85.9 47.9 Total Grains 4 6 4.687.5 4 9 4,463.0 !4,652. 4,577.3 4,680.8 4 4 Broad Beans 153 151 149.6 114.5 167.0 181.0 190.0 259.3 278.4 227.3 220.1 Chick Peas 136 142 133 5 121.1 85.0 158.0 108.0 52.8 84.1 158.1 98.5 Dry Peas 54 50 54.1 65.4 51.0 61.0 70.0 91.4 102.0 109.5 137.4 Lentils 25 23 11.8 20.8 32.0 37.0 28.0 38.7 31.0 40.5 46.4 Flat Peas N.A. N.A. 19.5 25.2 17.0 20.0 22.0 28.8 41.0 38.1 46.4 Other - 7.8 14.2 12.0 9.0 9.0 10.2 16.4 12.7 13.7 Total Pulses 376.3 361.2 364.0 466.0 427.0 481.2 552.9 586.2 562.5 Sunflower 7 9 5.7 8.4 17,0 24.0 14.5 36.8 20.5 18.4 23.3 Linseed 12 9 4.0 4.1 3.9 7.9 3.1 8.3 1.9 1.9 2.4 Other N.A. N.A. 3.3 4.9 5.1 6.1 5.4 10.6 13.4 17.2 16.0 Total Oil Seeds 13.0 17.4 26.0 38.0 23.0 55.7 35.8 37.5 41.7 Sugarbeet 7 9 20.2 25.6 32.0 35.0 43.0 60.4 45.0 57.7 62.1 Cotton 12 21 16.5 14.5 17.0 20.0 17.0 16.8 15.5 16.3 17.4 Other - - 5.2 5.5 6.0 8.0 10.0 11.9 11.7 13.2 18.0 Total Industrial Crops 41.9 45.6 55.0 63.0 70-0 89.1 72.2 87.2 97.5 Sources: Statlatiques Agricoles, I'Agriculture Marocalne en Chiffres. 1969-74, MARA, Rabat, June 1975. Statlstiques Agricoles. Principales Productions Vegetales, 1974-75, MARA, Rabat, December 1975. Resultats ie Ia Campagne Agricole, 1973-74. Direction de Ia Statistique, Secretariat d'Etat au Plan, Rabat, September 1975. FAO Production Yearbook, Vols. 24 and 28, 1970 and 1974. Pertonal Communication, Foreign Agriculture Service, USDA, June 1976. July 1976. AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY WROCCO Field Crop Production ('000 tone) CROP YEAR OF HARVEST 1961-65 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Barley 1,316 612 1,540.9 3,494.4 2,204.5 1,953.2 2,571.9 2,465.9 1,254.6 2,387.0 1,585.3 Durum Wheat) 1,336 1,000 933.3 2,068.8 1,225.0 1,417.9 1,641.5 1,631.0 1,182.1 1,380.0 1,204.0 Bread WheaO 335.1 709.4 369.0 382.6 546.6 529.8 392.0 473.0 370.8 Maize 352 190 235.7 415.3 449.6 319.6 389.9 367.6 217.3 390.0 370.8 Sorghum 6 2 38.0 87.0 40.6 47.8 120.5 59.0 52.1 87.7 74.6 Oats 18 13 18.6 21.4 10.8 12.1 15.3 23.6 12.2 19.8 26.8 Rice 20 25 27.5 41.0 50.0 40.0 2.7 13.9 10.4 12.3 29.2 Canary Grass N.A. N.A. 17.4 23.9 10.3 48.3 25.8 16.8 12.5 15.1 16.6 Other 28 23 5.1 28.4 10.2 14.4 30.8 49.1 90.6 38.3 40.2 Total Grains 15.6 6 4 4 5 51567 32238 4,803. 2 Broad Beans 110 89 96.8 169.5 155.3 189.9 242.6 267.2 188.7 345.5 212.7 Chick Peas 65 68 65.5. 118.2 72.6 137.2 1.9 34.0 78.9 163.8 60.8 Dry Peas 35 31 31.4 51.9 32.7 33.4 50.0 61.9 37.1 124.3 98.6 Lentils 12 7 4.6 21.6 19.4 15.1 15.6 20.1 11.4 27.5 34.3 Flat Peas N.A. N.A. 13.5 24.2 6.8 11.0 21.8 24.2 26.2 32.0 36.2 Other 6 3 4.2 10.5 7.4 4.9 4.8 6.9 11.4 11.7 8.4 Total Pulses 216.0 395.9 294.2 391.5 336.7 414.3 353.7 704.8 451.0 Sunflower 5 3 1.4 3.7 6.8 21.4 11.8 25.5 18.4 14.2 15.6 Linseed 5 5 1.6 2.7 2.9 8.3 - 8.8 . 1.4 2.9 1.8 Other N.A. N.A. - - - - 6.4 6.2 7.4 12.9 18.8 Total Oil Seeds 3.0 . 9.7 29.7 18.2 40.5 27.2 30.0 36.2 Sugarbeet 143 175 364.0 747.9 898.7 1,114.0 1,583.9 1,677.0 1,292.7 1,943.6 1,791.9 Cotton 5 10 17.0 19.6 21.8 18.9 19.1 26.6 26.6 17.8 17.3 Other - - - - - - 1.0 2.7 6.1 8.4 62.8 Sources: Stariatiques Agricoles, I'Amriculture Marocaine en Chiffres, 1969-74, MARA, Rabat, June 1975. Statisriques Agricoles. Principales Productions Vegetales, 1974-75, MARA, Rabat, December 1975. RestIltats de Is Campagne Agricole, 1973-74. Direction de Ia Statistique, Secretariat d'Etat au Plan, Rabat, September 1975. FAO Production Year book, Vols. 24 and 28, 1970 and 1974. Personal Conanunication, Foreign Agriculture Service, USDA, June 1976. July 1976. AGRICULTURAL SECTI)R SURVEY MOROCCO Average Yields of Major Field Crops (0/ha) CROP YEAR OF HARVEST 1961-65/1 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Barley 8.1 6.7 8.7 16.6 10.8 10.3 12.9 12.8 6.2 12.1 8.7 Durum Whea8. 6.9 7.6 14.3 8.4 10.8 10.8 10.8 8.0 9.9 9.7 Bread Wheat) 6.4 7.8 13.4 7.7 8.4 11.2 10.7 7.0 8.9 8.2 Maize 8 2.9 5.0 8.3 9.7 6.2 8.6 7.6 4.9 8.7 7.5 Sorghtun 5.1 6.1 6.1 13.6 7.4 8.1 14.5 9.0 9.7 12.4 12.8 Oats 7.9 5.8 8.6 10.2 4.7 6.4 8.0 9.7 6.0 9.9 8.8 Rice 40.8 45.1 50.9 52.6 50.0 50.0 27.0 44.8 38.7 32.2 47.1 Canary Grass N.A. N.A. 4.9 10.2 3.7 7.6 6.7 6.7 6.0 6.4 7.5 Other - - 6.6 7.6 3.9 6.9 5.7 10.4 11.1 4.5 8.4 Average - All Grains - 5.8! 7.8 14.7 9.5 9.5 11.5 11.3 6.9 10.6 8.9 Broad Beans 7,2 5.9 6.5 14.8 9.3 10.4 12.8 10.3 6.8 15.2 9.6 Chick Peas 4.8 4.8 4.5 9.8 8.5 8.6 0.2 6.4 9.4 10.3 6.1 Dry Peas 6.6 6.1 5.8 7.9 6.4 5.5 7.1 6.8 3.6 11.3 7.2 Lentils 4.9 3.1 3.9 10.4 6.1 4.1 5.6 5.2 3.7 6.8 7.1 Flat Peas N.A. N.A. 6.9 9.6 4.0 5.5 9.9 8.4 6.4 8.4 7.8 Other - N.A. 5.4 7.4 6.2 5.4 5.3 6.8 6.9 9.2 6.1 Sunflower 7.1 2.8 2.5 4.4 4.0 8.9 8.1 6.9 8.9 7.7 6.7 Linseed 4.7 5.6 4.0 6.6 7.4 10.5 7.6 10.6 7.2 15.1 7.4 Other - N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 11.9 5.9 5.5 7.5 11.7 Sugarbeet 202 191 180.2 292.2 280.8 318.3 368.3 277.6 287.3 336.6 288.5 Cot ton 4 4.8 10.3 13.5 12.8 9.5 11.2 15.8 17.2 10.9 10.0 /I FAO Production Yearbook, Vol. 24, 1970. /2 Average of averages for Barley, Durua) and Bread Wheats, Maize and Sorghutit. Sources: Staristiques Agricoles, I'Agriculture Marocaine en Chiffres. 1969-74, MARA, Rabat. June 1975. Statistiques Agricoles, Principales Productiont, Vegetales, 1974-75, MARA, Rabat, December 1975. Resultats de Ia Campagne Agricole, 1973-74. Direction de Ia Statistique, Secretariat d'Etat au Plan, Rabat, September 1975. FAO Production Yearbook, Vols. 24 and 28, 1970 and 1974. Personal Conauniication, Foreign Ag.Aculture Service, USDA, June 1976. July 1976. AGRICUIlURAL. SECTOR SURVEY MOROCCO Production of Selected Fruits, Ve,-etables and Tobacco ('000 tons) CROP 1961-65 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Tomatoes 233 302 277 245 250 28(1 300 460 500 450 Potatoes 210 275 205 160 300 300 275 226 226 240 Oranges 518 620 701 777 729 816 821 838 988- 819L Grapefruit 11 11 12 10 10 12 15 8 17 17 Lemons 9 9 6 4 3 5 8 2 81L 3L3 Grapes (Total) 392 328 193 310 160 203- 276 264 282 290 Wiine Grapes 308 278 170 216 88 163 167 149 167 n.a. Olives 186 155 244 400 165 506 195 269 229 241 Figs 76 59 65 65 65 60 65 67L3 67L3 671L Dates 79 90 80 90 90 1001L 75 100 90 95 Tobacco- 19 18 15 13 18 30 30 33 33 33 /I Includes tangerines and clementines. L 100 metric tons. /3 Foreign Agriculture Service, USDA, 1976. Sources: Statistiques Agricoles. Principales Productions Vegetates Campagne 1974-76, MARA, Rabat, December 1975. Statistiques Agricoles, L'Agriculture Marocalne en Chiffres, 1969-1974, MARA, Rabat, June 1975. Resultats Par Culture de Is Campagne Agricole 1973-74, Direction de la Statistique, Secretariat d'Etat su Plan, Rabat, September 1975. Personal Communication, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, June 1976. July 1976. < fHUKUGUO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Irrigable and Irrigated Land by Major Perimeter and Type of System (*000 ha) ORMVA Total Irrigated Completed 1974/1 1977/2 Irrigable 1967 1968-72 Modernized Unimproved Coal (ha) Lower Moulouya 59.0 21.0 19.0 38.3 - 52.0 Gharb 228.0 41.0 14.9 48.2 18.0 84.5 Doukkala 92.0 61.0 10.0 28.2 - 40.9 Haouz 112.7 18.0 11.3 29.0 29.5 41.3 Tadla 117.0 60.0 17.3 60.8 22.5 76.7 Tafilalelt 41.0 - 22.8 24.6 9.5 29.6 Ouarzazate 28.0 - .4 26.4 - 26.4 Souss-Massa 85.2 14.0 - 36.1 25.0 53.8 Loukkos 32.0 2.0 - 2.0 2.4 15.3 Sub-Total 795.0 180.0 95.7 299.6 106.9 420.5 Small and medium schemes (PM11) 290.0 275.0 41.7 22 n.d. Sub-Total (modern irrigation) 1,085.0 Other (traditional irrigation)/3 215.0 290.0 n.d n.d. Total 1,300.0 /1 Data is cumulative for 1973-1977 period. No data available for PMH1 during the 1973-77 period except the improvement of 7,400 hectares within the ORMVA and 23,000 ha in other schemes. /2 As revised in 1974. 23: Winter and spate irrigation. Sources: Plan de DEveloppement Economique et Social, 1973-1977, (Vol. II); MARA, Statistique Agricole, L'Agriculturel Marocaine en Chiffres, 1969-1974; and L'Irrigation au Maroc, (1975). CO MOROCCO ACRICULTURAL SECTOR MISSION Large Irrigation Schemes- Available To Be Completion Useful (Regulated) Irrigated Irrigated Total Dam Oued Date Storage Capacty Irrigation Scheme in 1974 Late 1977 Area Mm3 M ---------------a------------- El Kansera Beth 1935-69 265 210 Sidi Slimane 15,000 28,000 28,000 idrtss I - (Arabat) Inaouene 1973 1,100 925 Gharb )33,000 56,500 200,000 M'Jara Ouerrha 1981 1,400 Gharb ) Mohammed V - Mechra Kli1a Moulouya 1967 535 600 Basse Moulouya - Triffas 38,300 52,020 59,000 Bin El Ouidane El Abid 1954 1,160 1,000 Beni Moussa - West 66,000 67,000 67,000 ) Beni Moussa - East 15,000 )Tadia Dechra El Oued Oum Er Rbia 1980 550 Beni Amir - Beni Moussa ) Kasba Tadla Oum Er Rbia 1935 280 Beni Amir 23,500 25,500 35,000 ) Sidi Cheho Oum Er Rbia 1979 2,200 835 Doukkala 26,200 38,900 90,000 Moulay Youssef (Ait Aadel) Tessaout 1971 190 260 Tessaout Upstream 19,000 25,300 26,300 Lalla Takerkoust N'Fis 1935 38 78 Ilaouz Central 25,000 25,600 61,000 Alt Chouarit Lakhdar 1980 350 )Hlaouz Central ) R'Dat 1984 )Tessaout Downstream 9,500 9,500 20,000 Oued Mekhazen Loukkos 1977 275 270 Loukkos 4,400 17,500 32,000 Tamzaourt Issen 1977 120 80 Souss 49,000 58,000 65,700 Youssef Ben Tachfine Massa 1972 290 90 Massa 11,500 19,500 19,500 Hassan Addakil ZIz 1971 355 140 Tafilalet 23,600 23,600 23,600 Mansour Eddahbi Draa 1972 520 270 Draa - Ouarzazate 1,09 19,40 19,40 TOTAL 363,400 466,300 761,500 /1 Tentative figures, gross areas including some PMH, perennial traditional schemes to be modernized. /2 Im Fout dam constructed in 1944 already served the Doukkala First Stage area. MOkOCCO ACICUL:URA. SLCffl S1VEY Tentati ve List of PMl Prtes Under Co)nsider,tion (S-Year Plan 1973-1977) Engineeringl Corstruction EstimatI. Cost Project Region Area Type Preparation Period a narci Remarks a 'U00 DI l -" i.lion- Tagannt Agadir 900 River diversion & main canal To February 75 75 - late 76 85 2.5 Spate irrigation. M'Ramer Safi 450 76 - tlae 77 1.0 Ruhabilltation. Koråmat Safi 500/1,000 pumping 75-Lnd 76 77 350 3.5 PIreatic aquifer. Jimaa Salilm Safi 350 75 76 - 77 75 2.5 From Safi canal. Dir of lieii M.lial Beni Moussa/East 14,000 mping from aq,uif.r 75-iate 77 1,100 Mathetatical model of underground water potenrial. Att B.ugee4 Bentil Nellal 3,000 Terraces 75 - 77 230 Land consolidation. Az.iwtour El Jadida 1,500 75 - 76 76 - 77 700 10.5 Pum,ping from Oum Er Kbia. Assif El Mal Marrakelk 4,000 75 - 77 330 Atlas mounktaln footills. D-iranc Marrakeeh t,500 o RtAabilltation 75 - 76 130 Atlas mountlan toothills. Amlzmiz tar,rak.cl 5,000 75-late 77 77 - 79 b00 18.5 Depe&nding on groundwater resources. Chichao,ua Marrakech 6,000 Rehabilåtation End 75 3.0 Plantations. Oed Za TaourirL 2.500 RLeihablitation 6 pumping Mid-76 200 9.0 250 ha extension. Dar Slimanc Oujda 800 3.6 Ouija Rabat Sale 1,400 76 600 22.0 Supply from the water supply main pipeline of 0ued Grou. Tigi igra Azrou 4,000 1,000 20.0 Land consolidat.ion. Rjbj Mekn,es 2,000 .ate 77 AnLog i- M>delt 5,000 ExtenFsIon 1,100 Lining of 14 km of malin canal. Ait lol,iblUImia Assaka Khenifra 500 Exteision 100 5.0 Pumping from Oum Er Rbla. Tanoub.rt Kliamlsset 1,400 Land consolidation Late 77 77 540 10.5 NckkurAl loceima 5,400 Watersied management Late 77 77 - 78 1,000 40.0 EKLat E ja a) Taza 2,000 0Re Late 77 800 P,mepieg from Wadi. El Orja,io Cuercif Taza 500 late 77 2001 irrigated sch,eme. T-ddert Taza 750 Rt.hbit,ilitaio&n a exten.ion Late 76 4.5 Land consoidJation pumping. Tendit Taza 280 76 2.5 Pmaping trom existing canal. A J jFeb 1,8t0 Rhab,ilitio L,000 Land consolidat Ion extension. Allt Cli-ggag s1,80 Rla.ltlin Mis-,ur Fes 500 76 3.5 Land consolldation. Skoura Fes 2,000 75 - 76 77 500 8.0 Land coisolidat in. Chinate Fs 450 1.5 Collective lands. Lower inaocne Fs 2,000 75 - 77 71 - 78 2.500 33.6 Pilot projeccs. Måddle Sehou 3,600 pilot pcojtits. 11-i Khia l f Tetolan 300 77 100 0.8 Oued lachef T1t1aaw 3,000 76 77 1,300 9.0 Ajras TLouiea 750 Catil ,>r.la. i rrigaLioi 14.0 Supply from a small da»,. Mbarbar Tetouan ,90> 76 77 - 78 500 16.0 Multipurpose dam to be construcced by public Works. he,d Lao- Tetouai 250 76 77 - 78 100 2.5 Eht.nsion of xisting 1,200 ha. Ain Tab,da Ou)da 500 Underground waler pumping. hitit Mekeis 8,000 Rabi litation 76 - 77 nc louded in W. bank tktines pro j-t. Kaabi Fes 500 Bor.ho1ls 89,780 (27 - /1 Not cot, llstiuctlin ~ais, 11nly that p-art budged wit tin the 5-year Plan. TABLE 9.0 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY LIVESTOCK Livestock Inventory- (thousand head) Provinces Cattle Sheep Goats Horses Mules Donkeys Camels Pigs Agadir-Tarfaya 171 651 1,235 N 14 31 6 N Al Hoceima 38 59 129 N 10 2 N N Beni Mellal 137 1,048 412 13 55 1 1 N El Jadida 400 548 1 4 14 46 N N Fes 210 756 252 4 96 95 1 N Ksar Es Souk 33 460 490 2 32 62 14 N Marrakech 162 821 394 6 28 73 4 N Meknes 184 1,062 190 8 32 15 N N Nador 42 299 61 1 11 32 N N Ouarzazate 83 738 553 N 17 26 12 N Oujda 44 1,398 361 5 16 56 9 1 Kenitra 978 811 65 18 83 79 N N Tanger 19 28 5 1 1 2 N N Taza 130 947 663 3 49 24 2 N Tetouan 265 372 408 10 33 35 N 1 Casablanca 40 25 N 3 3 4 N 1 Rabat-Sale 80 145 21 6 7 7 N N Safi 230 526 230 31 55 75 18 N Khouribga 65 542 67 69 50 8 3 N Settat 185 806 39 9 29 84 21 1 El Kelaa 205 1,999 273 5 23 27 7 N Khemisset 258 533 174 31 82 81 1 N Khenifra 75 575 231 3 24 11 1 N Total: 1974 4,034 15,149 6,254 232 764 876 100 4 1971 /2 3,664 16,700 7,052 1970 /3 3,600 14,500 7,850 200 1947/52 /3 2,188 11,249 8,718 195 /1 MARA, information to Mission, May, 1976 /2 MARA, Enquete Statistique sur les structures du cheptel national, 1972. /3 FAO Production Yearbook, Volume 24, 1970 N - Negligible or None June 1976 TABLc^. � .1 MOROCCO AGRICULTI'itAL SECTOR SURVEY LIVESTOCK Yearlv Llvaвcock Рг4дисцоп (�000 toas) � Tota1 Cactle Sheeo Gоася Роиlсгц ?1ня _°culnes ' Сате� i1 А• `ц1k ;р гЗ /ц НС- 0- '1� НС 0 Т НС 0 Т НС 0 т Т Т Т 1947-52 'g Э19 271 2Э 25 1960 128 ЭОЭ 431 118 262 Э80 2 22 24 8 19 27 1961 92 292 Э84 86 254 Э40 1 20 21 5 1В 2Э 1962 56 282 ЭЭ8 52 248 ЭОО 1 17 18 Э 17 20 196Э 80 282 Эб2 76 249 Э25 V 16 16 4 17 21 1964 110 292 402 105 257 Эб2 1 18 19 � 17 21 1965 120 298 418 115 252 Э77 1 19 20 4 17 21 1966 147 Э09 456 140 270 410 1 21 22 6 18 24 1957 151 Э1Э 464 142 27Э 415 2 22 24 7 18 25 i968 142 Э64 506 l32 Э26 458 2 21 2Э 8 17 25 i969r 205 Э24 529 197 279 476 Э 2Э 26 5 22 27 1970'� - - 502 - ' 450 - ' 25 - - 27 1971 147 Э58 505 141 323 464 1 17 18 5 18 2Э 1972 156 Э7Э 529 149 ЭЭ5 484 1 19 20 6 19 25 t973 157 Э86 54Э 151 Э49 500 1 19 20 5 18 2З 19%4 151 Э70 521 145 ЭЗ5 G80 1 17 18 5 18 2Э 8. Иеас � 1960-64 149 бб ]8 19 26 1965-69 179 82 45 22 ЭО 1970-74 207 90 51 17 49 1974 � - 74 44; ' 11 ' 1 4 5 1947-52�"� - 50 60°1 ' ' 1970:.� 90 � С. [iool � � L947-52 114 1970 18S � � � D. 5kina 1947-52 3,720 1970 5,400 � �д Е. Н1деа -'� - 1947-52 655 1970 ЬОО �1 Souree: MARA, P1an Iвicier, 1975 � НС = Human еопа�рсlоп Т J= Ocher (animal consuшpclon, loasaa) 1 т = тосаl � FAO Ргодиесiоп Yearbook, 1970 �о 5оитсе; NЛАА, informacioп ео missloa, :tav 1976 � Including goat апд 1атЬ аевс �:ioa1: 3тевау Ьааеа 1п '00 cons; зkina апд hldes tn '000 v = �egligible ог попе Типе 1976 MOROCCO TABLE 9.2 AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY LIVESTOCK Yearlv Livestock ConRiunrtion k.vuu zons) Consumption National Production Import I/ 2/ A. Milk - 1963 565 363 202 1964 605 402 203 1965 597 419 178 1966 701 455 246 1967 810 464 346 1968 1,086 507 579 1969 1,242 529 713 1970 690 1971 797 505 292 1972 714 524 190 1973 744 523 221 1974 881 521 360 B. Beefl, 1960-64 66 66 1965-69 82 82 1970-74 90 90 4 1974 74 74 (0.7) - C. Muttord/ 1960-64 38 38 1965-69 45 45 1970-74 51 51 4 1974 44 44 (3.8) - D. Goats Meat3/ 1960-64 19 19 1965-69 22 22 1970-74 17 17 4/ 1974 11 11 (1-1) E. Poultry Mea 1960-64 26 26 1965-69 30 30 1970-74 49 49 Imports of milk and milk Droducts in tons of milk equivalent Source: MARA, Plan Laitier 1975 Source: M.MU, information to mission, May 1976 4/ N umber of animals slaughtered, in millions June 1976 TABLE 9.3 MOROCCO SURVEY OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS IN RAINFED AREAS Dairy Processing Capacity and Utilization in 1975 Milk Processed Capacity 0 Capacity. ('000 tons p/a> (_o) Centrale Laitiere Casablanca 70 59 85 Superlait Casablanca 18 6 34 Bonlait Marrakech 27 23 87 Colait Kenitra 11 6 55 /1 Comalait Meknes 9 2 24 Socolino Oujda 9 5 53 Polaid Nord Tetouan 27 2 8 Halile Souss Agadir 9 1 12 TOTAL 180 104 58 /l Other than cooperative plants; the mission was informed that Comalait, Meknes, a COMAGRI business, will shortly be sold to the Meknes Dairy Cooperative; this information had already been given to the Meknes Mission in June 1974. ZABLE 9.4~ MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY LIVESTOCK 1974 Prices for Livestock Products and Production Inputs - Products Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. NOV. Dec. Milk 1.09 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.11 1.14 1.14 1.15 1.16 Cattle - live 3.79 4.04 4.20 4.11 4.09 3.97 3.98 4.06 4.44 4.49 4.56 4.67 - carcass (wholesale) 4/ 7.62 7.97 8.02 7.99 7.90 7.82 7.86 7.88 8.27 8.40 8.69 8.78 Sheep - live 5.14 5.52 5.56 5.44 5.19 4.95 5.12 5.36 5.71 5.94 6.09 6.39 - carcass (wholesale) 4! 10.16 10.60 10.84 10.33 10.22 9.72 9.88 10.18 10.79 11.05 11.37 11.83 Goat - live 3.58 3.84 3.83 3.73 3.72 3.65 3.65 3.78 3.88 3.98 4.12 4.14 Camel - live 2.90 3.12 3.25 2.99 3.20 2.93 2.98 3.08 3.14 3.43 3.51 3.57 Poultry 6.63 6.84 7.09 7.01 6.87 6.91 6.80 6.87 7.34 7.58 7.62 7.94 Eggs (dozen) 3.45 3.36 3.31 3.25 3.17 3.03 3.12 3.37 3.76 3.83 3.85 3.97 Honey 11.00 11.09 11.25 11.31 11.41 11.34 11.42 11.77 12.56 12.79 13.35 13.48 Wool (greasy) 6.02 6.09 6.10 6.11 6.14 6.29 6.45 6.50 6.93 7.11 7.37 7.54 Bowels 2.08 2.01 1.92 1.95 1.93 1.90 1.86 1.87 1.97 2.01 2.08 2.17 Hides and skins - cattle 1.36 1.21 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.23 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.31 1.34 1.36 - sheep (per piece) 8.59 8.99 8.55 8.49 8.27 8.15 8.29 8.21 8.40 9.03 9.58 9.71 - equines 3.75 3.75 3.75 4.00 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 - goat (piece) 4.91 5.23 5.05 5.09 5.14 5.08 4.96 5.22 5.30 5.51 5.54 5.64 Livestock January - March April - June - July - Seotember October - December Imoorted breeding bull 3.867 3.895 3.812 3.887 Moroccan breeding bu l 1.412 1.371 1.431 1.496 Purebred dairy cow _' 3.710 3.489 3.690 3.667 Crossbred dairy cow 1.648 1.690 1.774 1.786 Moroccan dairy cow 892 893 941 994 Saddle horse 1.341 1.359 1.466 1.419 Work horse - 861 832 905 945 Hinny (jennet) 903 925 938 994 Donkey 179 191 206 217 Mule 990 1.033 1.062 1.102 Camel 879 884 937 1.028 Ram 257 261 279 294 Ewe 130 138 139 148 Lamb 110 114 114 126 Goat 96 100 101 106 Inputs Forage 0.34 0.32 0.36 0.41 Straw 0.23 0.21 0.21 0.25 Wheat bran 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.39 Barley 0.58 0.60 0.61 0.71 Oats 0.51 0.48 0.49 0.62 Maize 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.73 Oil cake 0.54 0.55 0.54 0.56 Sugarbeet pulp 1/ MARA, information to mission in May 1976 j/ Prices in DR/kg if not stated otherwise 1/ Probably ex-dairy plant, fixed by Government 4J Fixed by municipalities S/ DH/head !/ Probably imported 1/ DH/kg June 1976 TABLE, 10.0 AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY MOROCCO Prices paid to Farmers for Major Crops (DH/Q) CROP 1969 1971 1972 19731 1974 1975 19762 Barley (support) 20 27 30 31 40 58 56 Durum Wheat (support) 40 44 47 46 63 88 92 Bread Wheat (fixed) 35 39 42 41 40 60 60 Maize (support after 1974) 23 30 30 31 45 70 54 Sorghum 22 28 24 32 - 58 - Oats 26 26 26 27 - 62 71 Canary Grass 107 42 41 52 - 135 130 Broad Beans 33 35 40 38 - 67 64 Chick Peas 42 44 103 95 - 102 95 Dry Peas 34 30 37 33 - 76 46 Lentils 46 54 65 68 - 133 96 Flat Peas 28 34 28 30 - 51 57 Olives (Green) - 44 44 55 109 - Sugar beets (fixed) 60 60 66 76 90 96 Sunflower (fixed) 64 64 64 74 90 130 1/ Data for 1974 not supplied in this series. 2/ Preliminary Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform July 1976 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Trade in Agricultural Machinery and Inputs Years IMPORTS EXPORTS Tractors Fertilizers Pesticides Fertilizers Number Value (Value) (Value) Manufactured Crude ------------------us '000--------------------------------------------------------- 1963 648 3,240 4,690 2,880 200 91,1140 1964 677 2,180 1,430 2,700 630 114,170 1965 680 2,930 5,260 1,430 109,270 1966 3,001 3,960 5,266 2,830 7,819 105,696 1967 1,201 3,640 6,875 3,110 10,400 107,775 1968 2,398 6,738 8,236 3,167 13,641 107,467 1969 2,354 8,176 5,875 3,186 10,405 108,863 1970 1,724 5,236 3,062 3,860 6,501 114,170 1971 2,342 6,002 5,864 3,817 11,266 126,132 1972 1,100 4,451 7,479 4,177 14,748 144,470 1973 1,845 7,457 12,446 5,853 20,560 195,279 0 1974 1975 Source: FAO, Trade Yearbook AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY MOROCCO Coimercial Fertilizer Use (100 tons Useful Elements) CROP YEAR ENDING TYPE 1961-65 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Nitrogenous - N 152 250 280 293 330 360 456 585 550 650 618 Phosphate - P205 240 334 365 360 362 353 423 579 480 650 690 Potassium - K2 0 87 92 154 208 143 179 229 252 300 293 400 Total 479 676 799 861 835 892 1,108 1,416 1,330 1,593 1,708 Sources: MARA - Rabat - 1956 - 1967 - Marchb National des En.grais D.A.E.J. 1969. 1968 - 1972 - Note sur I'Emploi et le Commerce des Engrais. S. P. Casa-Settat 1973. 1973 - 1975 - Ste. Marocaine des Fertilisants, "Fertima" July 1976. O Table 13.0 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Agricultural Research Budgets /1 A. Operating budget for Agricultural Research for 1975 and 1976-- 1976 1975 Experimental farms 3.3 3.0 Phytosanitary control 6.2 0.2 Research Institutions and official laboratories 1.1 0.9 Total 4.6 4.1 (1) Excluding salaries and special allowances for which a lump sum estimate is included in the Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform budget. B. Investment budget for Agricultural Research in 1976 1973-75 1976 1977 Commitments Budgets Budgets Experimental farms 12.9 7.3 4.7 Plant protection 1.6 0.4 0.2 Official laboratories 0.7 0.6 0.2 9 Regional Centers 1.9 0.6 0.6 Central Services 6.7 0.6 0.6 General and Specialized Studies 6.8 3.7 3.7 Expenses for locust, rodents and bird controls 19.2 6.4 5.3 Total 49.6 19.6 15.3 Source: MARA, DRA July 1976 TABLE 14.0 AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY MOROCCO Production of Foundation Seed on Experiment Stations 1975-76 Crop and Variety No. of Stations Area Sown Involved (Ha) Barley 71 1 39.24 077 1 10.90 895 4 47.30 905 1 32.50 Massira 1 1.66 Layoun 2 4.20 Total Barley 7 135.80 Durum Wheat 272 1 21.04 1658 1 17.76 2777 2 297.40 2909 2 36.28 52/71 6 347.20 Cocorit 4 102.50 El Wahda 2 1.00 Total Durum 11 823.18 Bread Wheat 2306 2 19.00 908 2 20.60 Siete Cerros 1 36.00 149 (Nasma) 5 185.50 Potam 2 14.80 5/70-11 2 27.80 5/70-32 2 1.00 Total Bread Wheat 7_ 304.70 Oats 153 2 8.83 Rye Petkus 2 6.67 Total All Grains 16 1,279.18 Source: Personal Communication. Direction de la Recherche Agronomique, Rabat, June 1976. ACN1C11LTUКA4 SBC'NК SUКVF.Y МОВОГСО , ртдиссlил оЕ Сег[1(1ед ьпд Кек1ы[пгиЛ Sиыд of Вгоед Чhев[ (ВЧ). �г�ли Ч1�еь[ (UM1. Ваг)ev (В) ипд Ов[ь (0)1/ 1969 _ 1Ч70 1Ч71 1972 lЧ7Э 1974 ВЧ ОЧ В 0 ВЧ DЧ В р ВЧ ОЧ 8 0 ВЧ ОУ В 0 ВЧ DN В 0 ВЧ DM В 0 Агив Sим (00'е 11и) CertlflиJ lбl 207 Э5 .7 155 2Э5 5.5 4.4 l29 l88 1.6 - 170 21Э - - 1д9 l55 - - 15д Э4Ч 12 L 4 Beglлterыd 19 2В 4 1 15 1В .l - l9 29 .5 - 45 25 - - 76 70 5.2 1 22 ЭЬ S 2 3btel l�U 2®5 ЭУ9 !®7 1®0 25ФЗ 5�6 4�4 1®8 2�7 2пl ® 2�5 2тд ® ® 22-5 1®5 5®2 1� 1ё0 Э�5 1� 3�4 Агии Уввиlпк L�вpиctlon (00'и дл) L'егеlСlед tl7 129 17 - ll9 l15 ! - д5 llЧ - - ll9 142 - - 129 79 - - tl8 1i5 2.2 - Beglв[ered 14 17 2.4 - 1l l6 - - 17 18 .Э - 24 19 - - 2Э 2l - - l6 26 2.1 .l '1'о[ л l 10�1 1®Ь 10�.4 � l00 1�1 � ® 1®2 )1�7 �Э � 1®Э l�l ® � 1�2 1�0 i ® 1 U�4 1�1 4�Э �1 Fruducllun аЕ Sced рвивln Ina иerlnn (00'ы Q Сиг[1f1ед 10ЭЭ 1020 l2B - 15tld 1Ч55 ].Ч - l506 1573 - - 1Ч46 1tl22 - - 2Ч2U 9Э7 - - 1729 1211 Э - Bиg[иtcrcJ 221 176 Э2 - 2д7 272 - - 505 3Ч3 9.Э - д27 3U - - 561 ЭЭ2 - - ЭЭ9 42Э 44 2 То[и1 12�e4 1®96 1�0 ®)6В�71 2�27 7�Ч ® 2(�11 1ЧФЬ Ч�Э ® 27�7Э 21®Ч � � 74®1 12�Ч i ® 20��д 1��Э4 4� � _Ц Certlfled Sеид. Saed 1n[endud Со Ье воьлl Ьу Евтл�егв for the pruductlun of сотлетсlьl graln. Вед1е[егед Seed; Saed 1п[епдед [о Ьи еом Ьу governmeп[-eupervCeed опд lпврес[ед neeJ-producere for [he ртодис[1оп of CerCtClcd Secd. i. 5ои[се; U1rec[1on де 1ы Btcбerche Agconumlque, ВеЬлС, ре[лиnеl L'ouaunlcы[lon, June 1Ч76. � Ëi � Ju1y 1976. , �^. У MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Agricultural Research Organization Chart I A. Headquarters in RABAT. Ftirlcultural Research Directio 10 persons ,:a-,v. Servlv '9 2r dukintitrative Servic esearch and Experiment Divislo echnic Control and Phytosanita Ptudiesand lnfo:r ton A 7Servtc 09 persons 22 persons Pro ems Division 5 persons - a- I r 1: 20 ersons gronomv Se"icl logy Se i hytosallitary Contral,an eed and Plan, M.I,IpJI..1i.j fficial lAboracuries Servic 14 persons rcoll Wcust Control Serv e ervice 23 parbons 36 ..,..n. 12 prrsons I I St Cl rentral Station *entral Station Phytoeantrary control 11 RCHOUCH Seed Produc: 37 . rsuns Ition Station 5 pers, I,ocust Control Start.. t. on It persons al JInter grains 12 persons Animal nutrition- Soil Mineralogy iprJng graLis 9 Cows KOUDLA Soil Physics 11 pers.n 'dible legnme s 6 Sheep Soil Chemistry 9 Forage crops 6 beekeeping station 2 persons Soil microbiology 4 ,ngar crops 19 Poultry farming Phytoecology 3 M sued crops 6 station Sol] mapping 4 *Iber crops 5 Sericulture Chemistry lab. 6 Vruck gardening crops AGADIR station 'iLrus crops KENITRA r.it crops 5 peru.nh IA Livestock Statlm as productLon 2 37 persons IiVC Lrees 7 ate palm trees MARRAKECH romatfe and Medicinal crops Agricultural 21 persons improve.Lut Radio EI.m.1.L8 5 111yCoLechily 34 Fechnolosica 1 39 Research Ito MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Agricultural Research Organization Chart IT B. Regional Centers. RESEARCH AND EXPERIMENT DIVISION TECHNICAL CONTROL AND PHYTOSANITARY PROBLEMS DIVISION AGADIR Truck gardening Central Station Pedological Regional Plant protection 83 persons L2 experimental stations Station Regional inspection (PPRI), ACADIR Locust control group MARRAKECH Date Palm Central Station Zootechnical Regional Pedological Regional PPRI,MARRAKECH Seed control and seed 91 persons 7 experimental stat ona Station, SOUIULA Station Plant Protection multiplication Reg- Regional inspection for horticulture Unit, SAFI tonal inspection, for adaptation MARRAKECH trials Regional station for entomology BENt MELLAL 5 experimental stations Zootechnical Regional PPRI, BENI MELIAL 48 persons Regional inspection for horticul- Station, DEROUA ture for adaptation Ltrials MEKNES-FES 4 experimental farms Sericulture Central PPRI, MEKNES and FES Seed control and seed 88 persons Regional inspection for horticul- gtation Plant Protection multiplication Reg- ture AIN TAOUJDATE Units in FES and tonal inspection, for adaptation AZROU MEKNES Itrials Jteknba field lab EL JADIDA 3 experimental stations PPRI, EL JADIDA Seed control and seed 27 persons multiplication Reg- ional inspection, EL JADIDA CASABLANCA 2 experimental stations PPRI, CASABLANCA Item, CASABLANCA 48 persons Regional inspection for horticulture Fumigation Station Official Lab, CASABIANCA KENITRA Citrus Central Station PPRI, KENITRA 59 persons 5 experimental stations Plant Protection Unit, Regional Inspection for horticulture SIDI SLIMANE for adaptation e trials TAGER F, experimental station Pedological Regional PPRI, TANGER 36 persons Regional inspection for adaptation Station Plant Protection Unit, rtrials FNIDEQ Fumigation station OUJDA I experimental station PPRI, OUJDA 24 persona Plant Protection Unit, BENT ANZAR RABAT Fl experimental station Plant Protection Unit, 154 persons L trial garden RABAT 658 persons in all MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Personnel of Agricultural Research Department (June 1976) Filled PoGitions Vacant Positions Personnel Classification Budgeted Central Regional and Central Regional and Grade Including Contract Agents Positions Services Provincial Services Services Provincial ServiceA Exempt General Engineer 1 1 0 0 0 Deputy Director 1 0 0 1 0 Chief Engineer 5 3 0 2 0 11 State Engineer 77 24 28 6 19 11 Veterinary Inspector 2 1 0 0 1 10 Engineer 77(1) 10 53 5 6 8 Specialized Technical Assistant 15 0 10 0 5 7 Technical Assistants 320 22 237 3 58 6-5 Technical Agents 101 3 79 0 19 Sub-Total 599(1) 64 407 17 108 11 Administrative Officer 2 0 0 2 0 10 Deputy Adm. Officer 9 9 0 0 0 8 Technical Writer 0 0 0 0 0 6-5 Secretary 45 23 22 0 0 2 Executive Staff 80 41 39 0 0 Sub-Total 136 73 61 2 0 7 Support Personnel 4 2 1 1 0 6 Support Personnel First Class 2 0 2 0 0 5 Support Personnel Second Class 9 3 6 0 0 4 Support Personnel Third Class 259 52 147 0 60 2 Support Personnel Fourth Class 178 40 115 0 23 1 Service Agent 289 156 115 18 0 7 Laboratory Assistant 8 0 2 4 2 Contract Employees 7 3 2 0 2 Sub-Total 756 256 390 23 87 CRAND TOTAL 1491(1) 393 858 42 195 (1) Including 3 engineers on terminal status. NOTE: In addition, about one thousand permanent agents work as drivers, tractor drivers, water distribution agents, grafters, guards, agricultural workers, et cetera. They don't belong to Staff administration, but are considered as administrative agents. MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Moroccan and Foreign Technicians of Agricultural Research Department Item 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Moroccan Graduates 18 24 28 31 32 34 42 52 54 58 66 81 Foreign Graduates 118 104 71 58 75 81 90 82 82 76 56 47 Subtotal 136 128 99 89 107 115 132 134 136 134 122 128 Moroccan Technical 66 98 96 103 122 134 162 193 244 239 226 245 Agents Foreign Technical 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 8 6 2 2 Agents Subtotal 72 105 103 111 129 141 168 199 252 245 228 247 Total 208 233 202 200 236 256 300 333 388 379 350 375 LF5I TABLE 15.0 STUDENTS IN AGRICULTURAL T.AIl.'(G 1975-1976 Year of Graduation Institution 11981 !1980 11979 !1978 !1977 11976 !Total I UNIVERSITY LEVEL ! fl1) Institut Agronomigue at ! et Veterinaire Hassan II i I - ! 1/ I1 ! -Combined Freshman Class 585+9E 1 ! ! ! ! 594 ! -Agronomy !50 1 39 !39 !41 143 !212 * -Veterinarian Medicine ! ! 26 24+1 E ! 21 ! 19 ! 11 ! 102 ! -Topography & Rural ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Engineering 143 !39 !35 ! ! !117 ! -Food Technology !31 !17 !13 I I '61 * -Land ownership: ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Assistant Inspectors 15 ! ! ! ! ! ! 15 Inspectors ! 6! I I ' 6 !2) Ecole Nationale d'A- ! ! 1/ 1 ! ! ! griculture de 'feknes !80+6 ET 35 ! 48 ! ! ! 169 ! !3) Ecole Nationale Fores- i ! ! ! ! ! ! tiere Ingenieurs de I I ' ' I1/ ! ! Sale ! !13+14E!12+14E! 12+8E! ! ! 73 ! 4) Institur des Statis- ! ! ! ! ! ! ! tiques et d'Economie ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Appliquee !4 ! 2 ! ! ! ! ! 6 ! Total !610+9E!265 ! ! ! 60 ! 54 11355 ! ! First Year ! Second Year ! Total II. HIGH SCHOOL LEVEL !!! !1) Training Schools for Technical II ! - Ecole d'Agriculture de Souihla-Marrakechj 58 i 59 ! 117 ! - cole d'Agricillture d'Ellouizia ! 56 ! 50 ! 106 1 - Ecole d'Agriculture de Zraieb-Berkane I 33 ! 25 ! 58 - Ecole d'Horticulture de Meknes I 60 ! 43 ! 103 ! - Ecole Royale d'Elevage du Fouarat I 64 ! 73 ! 137 ! - Ecole du Genie Rural et de Topographie I 37 ! 45+3 E 1/ ! 85 - Ecole de Mecanique Agricole-Bouknadel 43 ! 37+1 E 1/ ! 81 ! - Ecole Royale Forestiere de Sale I 17 ! 18 ! 35 ! - Techniciens de laboratoire 1 35 ! 15 ! 50 ! - Institut National des Statistiques I ! et d'Economie Appliquee 4 ! - 1 ! 5 ! Total 407 1366+4 E ! 777 1 12) Training Schools for Agents - Agriculture 1 194 ! 153 ! 347 ! - Elevage 84 1 I 84 I - Topography ! 39 ! ! 39 ! Sub-Total I 317 ! 153 ! 470 ! Total ! ! ! 1247 ! SE - Etranger MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY 1973-1977 Development Plan Resource Availability and Use for Agriculture (Million Dh) 1973-75 Execution 1976-1977 Projected Commitmentsl3 Funds 1973-75 1973-75 Carry- Available Commitments Exonenditures over 2 Plan Total Amount % Irrigated perimeters Moulouya 126 128 91 72 110 110 Gharb-Sebou 295 314 205 69 277 277 Doukkala 84 84 50 59 114 114 Haouz 127 135 75 59 146 146 Tadla 72 89 57 79 48 48 Tafilalet 51 40 26 50 11 45 56 Ouarzazate 75 72 43 57 3 50 53 Souss-Massa 211 220 178 84 141 141 Loukkos 20 15 7 36 5 177 182 Sub-total 1 10 733 69 19 11,12 Rainfed areas- 488 346 221 45 142 376 518 Livestock 128 87 94 66 41 75 116 Water, soil & forest conservation 161 124 85 53 37 96 133 Agricultural research 65 50 40 60 15 29 44 Agricultural education 42 28 17 41 12 9 21 Land surveys & management 63 41 31 49 12 44 56 Agricultural economics & statistics 18 9 5 27 9 20 29 Agricultural inspection 10 10 1 8 Sub-total 975 695 484 50 268 649 917 Total 2L036 _,) 287 1 Including small and medium irrigation schemes. L2 Uncommited funds. .L Based on amounts budgeted for 1976 and 1977 in L'Execution des Deux Premi res Tranches...... 0 TABLE 16.1 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Composition of Investment for Agricultural Development during the 1968-72 and 1973-77 Development Plan Li (Million DH) /2 / Purpose and/or Function 1968-72 1973-77 1973-75 1976&- 1977-2 Plan Plan Commitment Rainfed Areas (DMV & DER) - Buildings and equipment 6.3 89.3 52.4 47.7 29.9 --Rural infrastructure 70.6 160. -3 68.0 40.0 58.0 - Land distribution 57.9 123.0-- 75.3 46.5 46.2 - Area development - 40.0/3 1.0 11.0 29.0 - Extension 6 5.2--- 200.8- 11.0 5.6 7.3 - Subsidies /4 /4 60.1 64.2 61.0 - Studies 12.2 27.5 16.0 10.4 11.2 - Others 2.5 Sub-cotal 203.1 641.0 284.1 225.4 242.4 Water,129.9 243.2 123.9 63.2 57.7 Water, soil and forest conservation Livestock develooment 91.6 192.0 86.7 28.9 19.5 Irrigated Agriculture.t 880.0 2,182.0 1,159.0 668.4 869.9 Supoorting services (all agriculture) - Agricultural research (DRA) 45.1 83.0 49.7 19.6 15.2 - Agricultural education (DEA) 165.0 47.0 27.9 20.5 23.8 - Land surveys and management 48.6 86.8 41.1 19.0 12.4 - Agricultural economies and statistics 29.9 81.0 9.0 15.2 10.1 - Agricultural inspection - - 9.5 - - Sub-total 288.6 298.0 137.0 74.3 61.5 TOTAL 1,593.2 3 060.2 1,251.0 /1 Amounts represent appropriation for 1968-72, plan allocation for 1973-77 and obligation for 1973-75. 72 Appropriation for 1976 and authorizations for 1977. /3 Estimated on the basis of data in the 1974 reformulation of the amount originally allocated in the Plan. 4 Extension and subsidies are combined for the period. /5 Excludes dam construction outlays but includes resources for small and medium size irrigation (PMH). Source: Plan de developpement economique et social 1973-77; 4ARA. Raoport sur 1'9xecution du plan quinquiennel. TABLE 16.2 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Investment Expenditures for Irrigation (Million DH) 1968-72 1973-75 1973-75- Outlays Commitments'Outlays Moulouya 103.4 127.7 91.5 Gharb 115.9 313.5 205.0 Doukkala 96.1 84.3 50.4 Haouz 96.2 135.4 75.2 Tadla' 93.8 88.9 57.4 Tafilalelt 75.5 40.4 26.0 Ouarzazate 62.6 71.7 43.2 Souss Massa 16.8 220.4 177.5 Loukkos 3.8 14.6 7.3 Sub-Total 664.1 1,096.9 733.4 Dam Construction 951.3 600.0/1 533.0 DMV Studies 12.2 Small & Medium Irrigation/1 70.2 62.0 39.7 Total 1,697.8 1,958.9 1,306.0 /l Estimated Source: 1973-77 Plan (Vol. II) and annual reports on the execution of the- 1973-77 olan by MARA.. TABLE 16.3 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY Commitments and Expenditures for Irrigation During the 1968-72 and 1973-77 Development Plans (Million DH) Irrigation 1968- 1973- 1973-75 Perimeter 1972 1977 Reported statistical (ORMV) Plan Plan 1973 1974/2 1975 1973-75 discrepancy Moulouya Commitment 138.1 201.8 42.9 46.9 54.6 127.7 16.7 Expenditures 103.4 40.2 22.0 37.6 91.5 9.1 Gharb Commitment 134.5 552.2 113.5 128.1 147.2 313.5 75.3 Expenditures 115.9 46.1 52.3 85.1 205.0 -21.5 Doukkala Commitment 105.5 186.3 36.7 30.3 49.3 84.3 32.0 Expenditures 96.1 12.6 9.3 23.3 50.4 -5.2 Haouz Commitment 118.9 213.5 33.5 40.1 77.8 135.4 16.0 Expenditures 96.2 13.6 15.0 42.4 75.2 -4.2 Tadla Commitment 120.4 93.0 29.2 29.8 44.3 88.8 14.5 Expenditures 93.8 11.6 10.7 31.9 57.4 -3.2 Tafilalelt Commitment 80.7 89.7 13.9 14.5 15.6 40.4 3.6 Expenditures 75.5 8.1 18.3 6.5 26.0 -3.1 Ouarzazate Commitment 64.5 121.5 34.2 21.7 28.7 71.7 12.9 Expenditures 62.6 17.3 10.1 10.6 43.2 -5.2 Souss-Hassa Commitment 41.5 323.2 69.7 85.5 92.6 220.4 27.4 Expenditures 16.8 38.4 49.9 77.2 177.5 -12.U Loukkos Commitment 5.5 196.7 - 3.4 9.4 14.6 -1.8 Expenditures 3.8 - .3 5.7 7.3 -1.3 Total ORMVA Commitment 809.7 1,978.0 373.6 400.3 519.5 1,096.8 196.6 Expenditures 664.1 187.9 178.7 320.3 733.4 -46.5 Small & medium irrigation (PMH) Commitment n.d. 165.0 22.3 15.9 18.8 62.0 5.0 Expenditures 70.2 12.6 12.3 18.6 3?.7 3.8 Total Commitment Q35.2 2,143.0 395.6 416.2 538.3 1,158.8 Expenditures 734.3 200.5 191.0 338.9 773.1 11-As modified in 1974. Excludes dam construction. U Gv to October 31 of that year. Source: 1973-1977 Plan (Vol. II), Annual reports on the execution of the Plan by the MARA ANNEX 1 Page 1 MOROCCO AGRICULTURAL SECTOR SURVEY CEREAL FORAGE ROTATION SYSTEM 1.01 The cereal producing region has considerable scope for forage produc- tion. The Australian practice of incorporating a legume-pasture phase into crop rotation in order to restore soil fertility, increase crop yields and to make better use of unproductive fallow lands by integrating cereal cropping with livestock production is technically feasible and applicable to dryland farming in Morocco, but its widespread adoption is expected to be slow, be- cause of the pressure on land for growing crops for human consumption and the lack of a properly organized livestock industry. However, the current exploita- tive nature of the crop and livestock husbandry practices in Morocco, leading to reduced soil fertility of cropping lands and limited sources of fodder avail- able from the rangelands, may force a change in farming and livestock prac- tices. According to figures presented by D. M. Leeuwrik (1975) at the Third Regional Wheat Workshop in Tunis, Morocco has 1.124 million hectares of fallow which could be put into legume pasture. 1.02 Essential Features of the Ley-Farming System 1/ (a) Self-regenerating annual legumes. The choice of a suitable legume is dependent on soil, climate and cropping rotation, but may be one or more of a range of annual medic species and/or subterranean clover cultivars. (i) Soils. In Morocco the annual medics are expected to be more important than the subterranean clovers because of the widespread occurrence of calcareous soils. However, on some of the more acid soils, e.g., the brown soils, overlying slates in the Ez-zhiliga hills area, a suit- able cultivar of subterranean clover may need to be used instead of a medic. (ii) Climate. The value of annual pasture legumes in the rotation is likely to have the greatest application in the 350 mm - 500 mm rainfall zone. Within this range various legumes are available with different times of flowering and maturity. In the more elevated areas, where the mean minimum temperature for January (the coldest month) falls below 20C, cold may be a limiting factor for the currently available commercial species of medics. 1/ In the Australian Ley Farming System, cereal cropping alternates with pasture leys comprising self-regenerating annual legumes such as sub- terranean clover or annual medics ANNEX 1 Page 2 (iii) Cropping rotation. Medics are particularly well adapted to rotations involving one or two crops followed by one year of pasture ley. Once the medic has become well established and has produced a large amount of seed, fur- ther sowing is unnecessary as good regeneration occurs naturally following cropping, because of the high propor- tion of hard seeds. (b) Establishment The recommended practice is to sow early (September-October) at 10kg per ha into the stubble ground with 45 units of P205 per hectare. The stubble ground should be shallow cultivated to a depth of 3 cm and the seed surface sown and covered by light harrows or with boughs of trees to a depth of 0.5 - 1 cm. (c) Depth of ploughing In order to retain seed supplies of the pasture legume close to the surface, shallow tillage for soil preparation preceding the sowing of a crop is essential for satisfactory regeneration in subsequent years. The widespread practice of deep ploughing in Morocco is unnecessary for good crop production and is definitely unfavorable for good legume regeneration. (d) Phosphate application Regular applications of fertilizer to the pasture ley will be a, completely new concept which Moroccan farmers may find difficult to accept. However, for satisfactory forage production, its adoption will be important. (e) Management In the first year of establishment, management practices (grazing and mowing) should be directed towards obtaining a good seed yield for regeneration in subsequent years. Weeds should be controlled by grazing and/or mowing which should not be shorter than 8-10 cm and all stock should be removed before the onset of flowering. (f) Benefits are given on page 5 and can be summarized as follows: (i) Increased forage production. It is doubtful if weedy fallows produce more than 500 kg dry matter (DM) per ha. Medic pastures can yield 1,500-2,000 kg DM/ha ANNEX 1 Page 3 in the first year of establishment and regenerating stands up to 4,000 kg DM per ha. E.D. Carter' (1975) has estimated that I ton of DM either in the form of high quality green pasture, dry pasture or hay would maintain 1 ewe equivalent (1 ewe = 1.5 dry sheep equivalent (DSE)) for one year (assuming a 75% pasture utilization). (ii) Increased soil nitrogen. Good grazed legume pastures are capable of improving the nitrogen status of the soil by an amount equivalent to 60 kg N/ha/year. (iii) Improved physical condition of the soil. The pasture ley and grazing by livestock will increase soil organic matter levels, improve soil structure and lead to better infiltration. (iv) Weed and Disease control. By direct competition from good pasture legume growth combined with grazing by livestock and/or moving, weeds are controlled and the prevalence of some cereal diseases is reduced by the introduction of a pasture legume phase into the crop rotation, e.g., root-rot disease (Ophiobobus) and cereal cyst nematode. 1.03 Proposed Project. Considerable scope exists in Morocco for the improvement of farming practices which will increase crop and livestock pro- duction and bring about a more stable agriculture. To this end, the Australian ley system of farming has definite application, but its adoption is unlikely to be readily accepted until the system has been properly demonstrated and the subsistence needs of farmers fully satisfied, and only then if the system does not involve any drastic changes in farming practices and equipment used. Al- though Tunisia's experience with medic pasture leys is relevant to Morocco, the results cannot be applied directly as a basis for a Bank project until the groundwork of demonstration and adjustment to local practices has first been carried out (para 1.06). 1.04 However, it is considered that the use of legume pasture leys should be included as an important component of a crop improvement project which could be used as a vehicle to gain farmer acceptance of the system and gradually lead to the integration of cereal cropping with livestock production. This project will need to be supported by a strong extension team headed by a project leader with experience in dryland farming systems and livestock production in a Mediterranean environment capable of working with his Moroccan counter- part. A French-speaking expert with experience in Australia and North African countries would be a distinct advantage. ANNEX I Page 4 Cost and Benefits of the Ley Farming System 1.05 Ley Farming System using a self-regenerating annual legume - barrel medic (Medicago truncatula). A. Costs Per ha 1. For establishment Sub. I Sub. II Sub. I Sub. II DH DH US$ US$ (1) Barrel medic seed 10 kg/ha (once only) 10 kg seed at 9 DH/kg (less 60% and 30% subsidy) 36 63 8.41 14.72 (2) Superphosphate (18%) 45 units of P205/ha at 16.92 DH/100 kg (less 15% and 20% subsidy) 36 34 8.41 7.94 (3) Cultivation - I shallow cultivation (disc harrow) 30 30 7.01 7.01 (4) Sowing - surface drilling with covering harrow 15 15 3.50 3.51 (5) Mowing 30 30 7.01 7.01 147 172 34.34 40.19 Note: Subsidy I = higher subsidy. Subsidy II = lower subsidy. 2. For maintenance - Depends on previous phosphate history but assumes maintenance topdressing of 25 units P205/ha on the pasture. at 16.92 DH/100 kg (less 15% and 20% subsidy) 20 19 4.67 4.44 Application 10 10 2.33 2.33 30 - 29 7.00 6.77 3. Capital Costs (1) Equipment - For farms above 50 ha - 1 rotary mower costing approximately 5136 DR or $1,200 where farmer has his own tractor, otherwise cultivation, sowing and mowing operations done by con- tract as above. (2) Livestock purchases. Important to have sufficient livestock on hand to manage the first year stand. - 1 breeding ewe costs 140 DH/head = $32.7. ANNEX I Page 5 B. Benefits 1. Additional forage produced as compared with weedy fallows First year medic 1000 kg. Dm/ha = additional ewe/ha Regeneration medic 3,500 kg. Dm/ha = 3 1/2 ewes/ha. 2. Reduced Nitrogen application After first good medic year, 30 units of N/ha instead of normal 60 units of N/ha - represents a saving of 9 DH per ha = $2.10 per ha in first crop year. 3. Less soil preparation treatments prior to first crop after pasture phase. Represents a saving of 80 DH/ha = $18.69/ha. (Assume 3 shallow cultivations at 30 DH/ha/operation as compared with I deep ploughing at 50 DH/ha and 4 disc harrowings at 30 DH/ ha/operation) C. Aplication to some rotations 1. Two course Rotations Year Rotation Estab. Maint. Savings Carrying Income Cost Cost DR/ha capacity from Lamb DR/ha DH/ha ewes/ha sale DH 1 fallow (weeds) - - - 0.5 49.5 2 wheat - - - - - 3 fallow (weeds) - - - 0.5 49.5 4 wheat - - - - - Average annual gross income from lamb sales - 25 DH/ha I medic ley 160 - - 1.5 198 2 wheat - - - - 3 medic ley - 30 - 4.0 528 4 wheat - 89 - - Average annual gross income from lamb sales after year 2 = 264 DH/ha 2. Three Course Rotations Year Rotation Estab. Maint. Savings Carrying Income Cost Cost DR/ha capacity from Lamb DH/ha DR/ha ewes/ha sale DH 1 fallow (weeds) - - - 0.5 49.5 2 wheat - - - - - 3 barley - - - - - 4 fallow (weeds) - - - 0.5 49.5 5 wheat - - - - - 6 barley - - - Average annual gross income from lamb sales after year 3 16.5 DH/ha ANNEX 1 Page 6 Year Rotation Estab. Maint. Savings Carrying Income Cost Cost DH/ha capacity from Lamb DH/ha DH/ha ewes/ha sale DH 1 grain legume - - - - 390 2 wheat - - - - - 3 barley - - - - - 4 grain legume - - - - 390 5 wheat - - - - - 6 barley - - - - Average annual gross income from grain legume 130 DH/ha 1 medic ley 160 - - 1.5 198 2 wheat - - - - - 3 barley - - - - 4 medic ley - 30 - 4.0 528 5 wheat - - 89 - - 6 barley - - - -- Average annual gross income from lamb sales after year 3 176 DH/ha Assumptions Carrying capacity weedy fallows 500 kg Dm/ha = 0.5 ewes/ha 1st-year medic ley 1,500 kg Dm/ha 1.5 ewes/ha Regeneration medic 4,000 kg Dm/ha = 4.0 ewes/ha Lambing percentage weedy fallows - 60% medic leys - 80% Lamb prices 5.50 DH/kg live wt. Lamb weights 30 kg/head live Value of additional liveweight/ha (a) Two-course rotation 264-25 = 239 DH (b) Three-course rotation 176-16.5 = 159.5 DH ANNEX 1 Page 7 Ley Farming System in Tunisia 1.06 The method used by J.B. Doolette to get a ley farming project launched in Tunisia has been described in two published papers. The project commenced in 1971 and is working with 300-400 cooperators including both privately-owned and state-owned farms. The project is simple and requires relatively few inputs. It appears to be gaining acceptance by the farming community who are most impressed by the additional forage which the system provides. The important features of the project are: 1. It is confined to the 350 - 500 mm rainfall zone on cal- careous soils. 2. It is based on a simple cereal/pasture medic rotation, which replaces the commonly adopted cereal/fallow rotation. 3. A well-trained group of Tunisian extension workers is an important component of the project. Evaluation 1. The system must allow the yield of cereals to be at least as high as that using the best available recommendations and permit livestock to be integrated. However, it is considered that it will take 2 - 3 cycles of the rotation before wheat yields will match those from fallow plus recommended rates of nitrogen fertilizer. Initiallly, wheat yields may be up to 10% less. 2. Measurable benefits to date include: (a) Additional forage - Weedy fallow 500 kg DM/ha First year medic 1,500-2000 kg DM/ha = 1 1/2 ewes/ha Regeneration medic 4,000 kg DM /ha = 4 ewes/ha (b) Reduced applications of nitrogen - Where medic has been sown, the nitrogen application on the cereal is reduced by 50%. It is expected that after five complete cycles this will be reduced by 100%. (c) Less soil preparation treatments - The number of cultivations to prepare the land for cereal growing has been reduced from 5 to 3 and the depth of initial cultivation is only 8 to 10 cm as compared with the traditional 20 to 30 cm. ANNEX 1 Page 8 Major Inputs 1. For establishment: Seed 10 kg/ha (once only) Superphosphate 45 units P205/ha Cultivation - one shallow (3 cms) cultivation with scarifier Sowing - surface drilling or broadcasting Harrowing - to cover seed 2. Maintenance topdressing 45 units P205/ha 3. Equipment - for farms above 50 ha, 1 rotary mower where farmer has his own tractor, otherwise cultivation and mowing operations done by contract 4. Livestock purchases - important to have sufficient livestock on hand to manage the first year stand. 5. Technical assistance - extension unit; study tours. Application to Morocco 1.07 There is sufficient evidence to assume that medics will thrive in Morocco within the rainfall belt of 350 mm to 500 mm mean minimum where winter temperatures for January do not go below 20C. 1.08 The system, based on a two course rotation of cereal/medic pasture, may not be so easily adapted to Morocco, where because of the great pressure on land, there appears to be much less fallow. Seed Supplies 1.09 Initially seed supplies should be readily obtainable from Australia, although the Algeria Government has announced it intends to sow 50,000 ha in 1976. This will require 500 tons of medic seed which may temporarily affect the supply of seed from Australia. Ultimately, any North African country con- templating large sowings of medic seed should seriously consider local seed production. -l‘딪씸