India - Current economic position and prospects

APPENDIX 5 A.S. 26 a FILE Copy REST RIC T LJ This report is restricted to use within the Bank. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF INDIA November 122 1954 Department of Operations Asia and Middle East  Rate of Exc]iange of Indian Currency 1 Indian Rupee = U.S. $ 0.21 1 U.S. Dollar a Rs. 4.762 4  TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. Basic Data Summary andcGonclusions...................... i-ii A. INTERNAL FINANCE .........*.. *. ........ .... 1 I. The Financing of the First Three Years of the Five Year Plan................. 1 - 2 II. Financing of the Fourth Year of the Plan ............... * 3 -5 III. Honey Supply and Prices...........s - 6 Be PRODUCTION 6 I. Agricultural Production . ..... 6 - 7 II. Industrial Productionn...... 7 - 8 C. FOREtGN TRADE & BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ........ 6.- 12 D. TI[41 PROGRESS OF ME. FITrV YEAR PL.l AND THE OUTLOOK .1.3.-,,........................... 13 - 17 E. THE FIVE YEAR PLAN AND IDyDIA'S CREDIT.'CORTHI2TESS 17 - 20 Appendix - Outline of the Five Year Plan S tatistinal Appendix  Basic Data Area Total: 812 million acres (1.27 million sq. miles) Cultivated and fallow: 325 million acres Population 1951 census - 357 million I Rate of growth (19h7 - 1952): 1.2% per annum Density of population (1953): 310 per sq. mile of land 890 per sq. mile of cultivated land 1/ Plus an estimated 5 million for areas not included in the census. National Income in 1950-51 (at 1950 - 1951 prices at factor cost) Total: Rs. 95.5 billion (Rs. 88.7 billion at 1948-49 prices) Per Capita: Rs. 265 - U.S. $54 Acreage of Principal Crops in 1953-54 (millions of acres; final forecast) Cereals 208.0 Sugarcane 4.3 Pulses 49,3 Cotton 17.0 Oilseeds 27.5 Jute 1.2 Composition of Foreign Trade (April 1952 - March 1954 average; percentage of total value) Exports Imports Jute manufactures 20 Metal manufactures 27 Cotton manufactures 14 Foodgrains 21 Tea 15 Petroleum 12 Spices and tobaccr 6 Raw cotton 9 Oilseeds and oils 5 Raiv Jute 3 nther products 4 0o Other products 29 M/ Mainly: hides and skins, raw cotton, carpet wool, gums and resins, fruits and nuts, mang- anese ores, mica, and coal. Balance ef payments in 1953* (exchange control data) _o. Million) Exports 5,308 Imports -5,664 Services (net) 6eh Remittances and grants 320 Unrecorded transactions with the Middle East (net) -170 Surplus on current aoc.unt 398 L4ng-term capitd, errors & Qmissions -71 Remaining surplus 327 *Calendar year.  Basic Data - 2 (Rs. Millions) Central Government Budget for 1954/55* Disbursements Ordinary expenditure 4.,671 Disbursements not met from Revenue 3.1442 Total Disbursements 8,113 Receipts Ordinary revenue 4,517 Small savings and provident funds (net) 606 Deposits and cther items (net) 347 New loans (net of repayments) 253 Total Receipts 5,723 Budgetary Gap 2,390 Increase in fl?ating debt (Treasury Bills) 2,500 Increase in cash balances llO Public Debt on March 31, 1954 (Rs. billions) 26.95 Of which: External Debt 1.41 Central Bank Reserves on October 1, 1954 (Rs. Millions) Gold 1/ 11,176 Foreign Assets 7,316 Total 8,1492 * Fiscal year starting Lpril 1st, 1/ Revalued at present official rate of Rs. 166.7 per ounce.  INDIA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX (1948=100) 130 130 MONTHLY \, s V 120 120 /vV Iso It111 o 100 100 D J D J D J D J D J D 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 SUPPLY OF FOOD GRAINS (MILLIONS OF TONS) (MILLIONS OF PERSONS) "1948-49 1949-50 1950-51 1951-52 1952-53 1953-54 9T55-56) oFFICIAL GOLD AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE ASSETS (BILLIONS OF RUPEES) 10 .=.................. H 1 0 :.*.: . F;OR.E; IG5TOTAL LAST FRI Y OF MONTH..* 5 5 MONEY SUPPLY (BILLIONS OF RUPEES) LAST FRIDAY OF MONTH LOCAL PR ~OTA 20 . _ .*. 20 10 10 l1/19/54 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 No. 835 IBRD-Economic Staff  INDIA WHOLESALE PRICES: INDEXES (YEAR ENDING AUGUST 1939=100) 50MONTHLY ||i ,f , 0 450 450 / h-_ _--> _ \oZGENERAL 400 "NK~7 ^ 400 350 FOODSTUFFS2\ t 350 30 ,,,, ,,,, ,ll ,, ,, ,l,, , , ,,, ,, 1Ill 300 D J D J D J D J D J D 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 GOVERNMENT REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES (BILLIONS OF RUPEES) 8YEAR ENDING MARCH | EXPENDITURES ....... _ l REVENU ES X