Zambia - Urban sector survey (Vol. 2 of 2) : Annexes

Report No. 490-ZA F cnQpy Urban Sector Survey FE O Republic of Zamnbia (In Two Volumes) Volume 11: Annexes May 24, 1976 Transportation and Urban Projects Department Development Economics Department FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US$1 = Kwacha 0.643 Kwacha 1 (Kl) = US$1.556 Ngwee (n) 100 = Kl Mwacha 1 million us$1,555,56o ABBREVIATIONS 1 meter (m) 3.28 feet (ft) 1 square meter (m2) 10.76 square feet (sq ft) 1 kilometer = 0.62 miles (mi) 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres 1 liter (1) = 0.246 US gallons (gal) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CSO Central Statistical Office DDC District Development Committee FNDP First National Development Plan GRZ Government of the Republic of Zambia IDZ Intensive Development Zones MOLGH Ministry of Local Government and Housing MOE Ministry of Education NHA National Housing Authority PDC Provincial Development Committee SNDP Second National Development Plan UNIP United National Independence Party FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ZAMBIA - URBAN SECTOR SURVEY ANNEXES Table of Contents Page No. I. URBANIZATION A. Urban Growth .............................. 1 B. Migration ........................................ 4 C. Urban Employment ... . ... ...... .... .. . ... .. 8 D. Urban Incomes . ........................... .. 12 II. THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL CENTERS A. Regional Growth and Urban Development ..... 1 1. Introduction ....... ....................... . 1 2. Structure of the Economy ............. 1 3. Spatial Consequences ......... ........ 2 4. Public Investment in First and Second Plans ....... .... . ......... .. 3 5. Decentralization of Manufacturing .... 5 6. Potential Impact on Distribution of Urban Growth ... .................... 7 B. Chipata and Eastern Province .............. 8 1. Existing Characteristics of Chipata .. 8 2. Developments in Eastern Province ..... 10 3. Future Growth of Chipata ............. 15 4. Other Urban Centers in the Province ... 17 III. HOUSING I. The Housing Stock ... . ..................... . 1 II. Urban Housing Programs and Policies ....... 5 III. Housing Account Financial Positions ....... 9 IV. Rent Levels . .................... .... ....... 9 V. Sale of Council Owned Houses .............. 17 VI. Collection Procedures and Arrears Problems . 18 VII. Site and Service Programs ................ . 19 VIII. The Squatter Problem ...................... 22 IX. Divided Responsibility for Housing ........ 26 X. Costs in Site and Service Schemes ......... 27 XI. Sources of Capital . ... *... . ...... ................ . 28 XII. The National Housing Authority .......... .. 29 This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  ANNEXES - Table of Contents (Continued) Page No. IV. LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES IN ZAMBIA I. Introduction *..*.*... **....*... **........... *........ * .. ... * ... 1 II. Budgetary Authority for Local Governments .. 4 III. Sources of Council Revenues ........ ...... 6 IV. Local Government Expenditures ............. 14 V. Summary and Conclusions .... ............ *.. 17 Chart  INDEX OF TABLES Annex I Table 1 - Eureopean Population in Major Towns Table 2 - Africans in Employment by Town & Year Table 3 - Distribution of the increase in the Urban Population during 1963-1969 by Provinces and the Percentage in the Urban Population during 1963-1969 in the Province Table 4 - Distribution & Growth of Zambian Towns Over 4,000 Population by Province - 1963-1974 Table 5 - Regional Distribution & Growth of Population During 1963-1969 and 1969-1974 Table 5a - Distribution of Population by Settlement Size Groups, Zambia and W. Malaysia Table 6 - Zambian Cities, Municipalities and Townships - Population Growth 1969-74 Table 7 - Distribution of the Projected Total population by Rural & Urban Areas Separately for Males and Females (in thousands) Table 8 - Distribution of Projected total population by Rural & Urban Areas Separately for Males and Females (percentage) Table 9 - Zambia. Expected Population, 1975-2000 by Province and Municipality Table 10 - Zambia Projected Rates of Population Growth by Province and Municipality 1969-2000 Table 11 - Zambia. Percentage Distribution of Population by Province and Municipality Table 12 - Zambia - '4ale-Female Ratios by Province and Age Group, 1969 (Males per 100 Females) Table 13 - Male-Female Ratios by Province & Municipality - Africans 1963 & 1 969 Table 14 - Zambia - Mirgration Ratios by Province - Males Table 15 - Zambia - Proportionate Distribution of Provincial Populations by Place of Birth - 1969 (Males) Table 16 - Zambia - Proportionate Distribution of Provincial Populations by Place of Birth - 1969 (Females) Table 17 - Zambia - Male-Female Ratio by Province of Residence and Place of Birth Table 18 - Zambia - Male Labor Force and Economically Active Population by Province - 1969 Table 19 - Economically Active Population in Zambia by Main Activity Groups, 1969 Table 20 - Zambia - Comparison of Reported Employment of Africans from Census & Employment Surveys by Sector - 1969 Table 21 - Employment of Wage & Salary Workers 1961-1972 Table 22 - Household Heads by Occupational Group & Town Table 23 - Lusaka Squatter Areas: Employment Status of Householders  - 2 - Table 24 - Self Employed and Employers by Detailed Activity Table 25 - Kitwe - Survey of Townships, Percentage Breakdown of Employment by Type (Males) - 1973 Table 26 - Kitwe - Survey of Townships Percentage Breakdown of Employment by Type (Females) - 1973 Table 27 - Lusaka: Working Population by Selected Detailed Occupation Groups, 1969 Table 28 - (a) Zambianization in Central Government Employment - Division 1 and 2 Table 28 - (b) Progress of Zambianization in the Mines (including Broken Hill and Ndola Copper Refineries) Table 29 - Posts in all Grades Table 30 - Employment by Industrial Sectors in December, 1971 and Anticipated Employment by December, 1976 (thousands) Table 31 - Total Urban Population and Labor Force 1969-1978 (thousands) Table 32 - Urban Labor Force Participation by Age and Sex 1969 adn 1978 Table 33 - Estimated Employment, Formal and Informal Sector - 1971, 1976 Table 34 - Estimated Increase in Labor Force and Employment by Sex, Formal and Informal Sector, 1971-76 Table 35 - Zambia - 1966-68 Household Budget Survey. Summary of Results Table 36 - Household Income and Expenditure by Income Group Table 37 - Kitwe - Township Survey - Household Incomes - Numbers of Households by Income Group and Township - 1972 Table 38 - Household Incomes - Percent Distribution by Income Group Table 39 - Kitwe - Township Survey - Household data Table 40 - Zambia - Selected Towns - Average Household and Per Capita Monthly Incomes - Low Income African Housing Areas 1966-68 Table 41 - (a) Index Numbers of Consumer Prices: Low Income Group: All Centers Combined. New Series: 1969 = 100 Table 41 - (b) Consumer Price Index. Higher and Lower Incomes January, 1962 = 100 Table 42 - Average Annual Earnings of African Employees in Each Industry. 1960-1972 Annex II Table 1 - Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Economic Activity at Current Purchasers Values (K million) Table 2 - Percentage Distribution of Sales by Sections of Purchase - 1969 Table 3 - Distribution of Imports by Origin, Grouped Sectors - 1969  - 3 - Table 4 - Zambia - Distribution of Imported Inputs by Sector - 1969 Table 5 - Employment by Province and Sector, 1968 Table 6 - Distribution of Manufacturing Establishments among Provinces by Manufacturing Activity 1969 Table 7 - Average Agricultural Crop Production by Province 1969-72 Table 8 - Zambia - Proportion of Population Aged 10-14 Enrolled in Primary School by Province 1972 Table 9 - Zambia. Distribution of Primary School Pupils by Age Group and Province 1972 (Percentage) Table 10 - Distribution of Capital Expenditure in the FNDP Table 11 - Zambia - Hospital Beds by Province, 1973 and 1981 Table 12 - Results of the Model (Input-Output Model Without Substitution of Imports) Changes in Output by Sectors 1967-1976 Table 13 - Computed Growth of Total Production by Sectors 1971-1976 Table 14 - Labor Output Ratio, Capital Output Ratio, and Labor Intensity by Sectors 1967 Table 15 - Synopsis of Possible Projects Suggested for Southern Region Table 16 - Employees in Major Zambian Towns by Main Activity Groups, 1961 Table 17 - Marketings of Major Agricultural Products 1970-71 Table 18 - Eastern Province - Agricultural Marketings 1964-1972 Annex III Table 1 - (a) Percentage Distribution of Dwellings by Number of Rooms Table 1 - (b) Percentage Distribution of Dwellings by Number of Rooms and Number of Occupants Table 2 - Percentage Distribution of Dwellings by Density of Occupation and Number of Rooms Table 3 - Allocation of Sites and Houses to be Constructed During Second National Development Plan by Type of Council Table 4 - Summary of Housing Account Finances Table 5 - Summary of Housing Account Finances for the Three Large Cities in Zambia, 1972 Table 6 - Summary of Housing Account Finances for Three of the Five Municipalities in Zambia, 1972 Table 7 - Summary of Housing Account Finances for Three Township Councils in Zambia, 1972 Table 8 - Breakdown of Rental Charge for Low-Cost Housing Table 9 - Kitwe. Council Low Cost Housing Rentals Table 10 - Growth of Local Authority Owned Housing Stock 1967-72  - 4 - Table 11 - Site and Service Plot Developnents as Proportion of Total Estimated 1973 Housing Stock Table 12 - Estimates of Squatter Populations by Town 1969-74 Table 13 - Distance Traveled to Work by Type of Township. Kitwe 1972. Table 14 - Dwelling Units in Kabwe Urban Area, 1973 Table 15 - Monthly Plot Charges by Type of Scheme Table 16 - Scale of Contributions to Zambia National Provident Fund Table 17 - Site and Service Schemes - Total Monthly Payment by Size of Loan and Cost of Plot Development Table 18 - Percentage Distribution of Dwellings by Type of Landlord Table 19 - Percentage Distribution of Dwellings by Type of Toilet Facility Table 20 - Percentage Distribution of Dwellings by Type of Water Supply Table 21 - Persons per Dwelling by Province and Urban District Table 22 - Percentage Distribution of Dwellings by Type of Cooking Fuel Used, and Electricity Availability Table 23 - Percentage Distribution of Dwellings by Material of Construction of Roofs and Walls Annex IV Table 1 - Rates Schedules, 1973 Table 2 - Property Valuation for Selected Cities and Municipalities in Zambia, 1972 Table 3 - Water Tariff Schedules for Residential Consumers for Selected Cities and Municipalities, 1973 Table 4 - Selected Sewerage Tariff Schedules for Residential Units, 1973 Table 5 - Adjusted Estimates of Per Capita Gross Current Expenditures (K) by Function Lusaka City Council Table 6 - Rating and Valuation Data Lusaka City Council Table 7 - Summary of General Rate Fund Finances (K) for the Three Large Cities in Zambia, 1972 Table 8 - Summary of General Rate Fund Finances (K) for Three of the Five Municipalities in Zambia, 1972 Table 9 - Summary of General Rate Fund Finances (K) for Three Township Councils in Zambia, 1972 Table 10 - Summary of Water Account Finances for the Three Large Cities in Zambia, 1972 Table 11 - Summary of Water Account Finances for Three of the Five Municipalities in Zambia, 1972 Table 12 - Summary of Water Account Finances for Three Township Councils in Zambia, 1972 Table 13 - Summary of Sewerage Account Finances for the Three Large Cities in Zambia, 1972  - 5 - Table 14 - Summary of Sewerage Account Finances for Three of the Five Municipalities in Zambia, 1972 Table 15 - Summary of Sewerage Account Finances for Three Township Councils in Zambia, 1972 Table 16 - Summary of Liquor Undertaking Finances Lusaka City Council Table 17 - Summary of Liquor Undertaking Finances Kitwe, 1972 Table 18 - Summary of Liquor Undertaking Finances Ndola, 1972 Table 19 - Summary of Liquor Undertaking Finances (K) for Three of The Five Municipalities in Zambia, 1972 Table 20 - Summary of Liquor Undertaking Finances (K) for Three Township Councils in Zambia, 1972 Table 21 - Government Grants to Lusaka Council Table 22 - Summary of Gross Expenditures by Function Lusaka City Council Table 23 - Summary of Per Capita Gross Current Expenditures by Function Lusaka City Council Table 24 - Summary of Gross Expenditures by Function Kitwe City Council Table 25 - Summary of Gross Expenditures by Function Ndola City Council Table 26 - Summary of Per Capita Gross Current Expenditures by Function Kitwe City Council Table 27 - Summary of Per Capita Gross Current Expenditures by Function Ndola City Council Table 28 - Summary of Gross Current Expenditures by Function for Three of the Five Municipalities in Zambi, 1972 Table 29 - Summary of Per Capita Gross Current Expenditures by Function for Three of the Five Municipalities in Zambia, 1972 Table 30 - Summary of Gross Current Expenditures by Function for Three Township Councils in Zambia, 1972 Table 31 - Summary of Per Capita Gross Current Expenditures by Function for Three Township Councils in Zambia, 1972 Table 32 - Per Capita Current Expenditures (K) for Selected Functions for Selected Local Government Units, 1972 Table 33 - Summary of Gross Current Expenditures by Function for Two Rural Councils in Zambia, 1972   ANNEX I Page 1 URBANIZATION A. URBAN GROWTH 1. Urbanization and the development of the urban system in Zambia is a reflection of the dualistic nature of the economy. The major urban centers are the focus of the "modern sector" of this economy built around the copper-mining industry. The major impulse for development in this part of Africa followed the desire of British mining interests, based in South Africa, to obtain mineral rights in the areas and then to proceed with exploration. Expeditions were financed in the late 19th century by the British South Africa Company, and the leaders obtained, sometimes by some- what dubious means, the signatures of local chiefs to documents ceding mineral rights over their territory. The first discovery of lead and zinc occurred in 1902 at Broken Hill, now Kabwe. A rail line was constructed north from Bulawayo in Rhodesia via the Victoria Falls, which reached this area in 1901 and was extended to meet the Belgian system to the north which served the Katanga area where development in the following two decades was relatively slow. Some development continued but the major expansion did not occur until after World War II. 2. Data indicating the growth of the urban centers in the country is somewhat scanty since a complete census of the countrY was not carried out until 1969. During the colonial period, due to lack of facilities and some lack of interest, the censuses which were carried out confined themselves to the non-African population in the territory and enumerating Africans registered as employed. A census of the African population only for the country was carried out in 1963 on the eve of Independence. This means that prior to 1963 there was no accurate information on the population in rural areas. However, the available data do provide a picture of the growth of the main urban areas. Tables 1 and 2 show the numbers of Africans in employment and of European population in the main towns for the period 1946 and 1952. These suggest three main phases of growth since World War II. During the first decade following the War, rapid growth took place with the numbers of Europeans increasing threefold and that of Africans in employment doubling as production of copper expanded. Ancillary industries were established principally by immigrants from Britain or by establishment of branches by South African or Rhodesian concerns. In the following period up to indepen- dence, urban growth appears to have slowed although this was not universal. Lusaka and Kitwe, the latter in the center of the Copperbelt, both show significant increases in employment at this time. 3. The colonial government recognized the danger of a rapid movement of population to urban areas without adequate emplovment opportunities and also felt some responsibility to support tribal authorities. Residence in urban areas was restricted at first to single men with wage employment. Many of these were recruited for fixed periods, especially by the mines, housed in bachelor quarters and then returned to their village at the end of their contract period. Later, men were allowed to bring their families with them, but were still essentially viewed by the authorities as being temporary residents - an attitude which naturally led to an assumption that  ANNEX I Page 2 employers or local authorities were responsible for supplying housing for them. These policies tended to hold down urban populations below levels they might otherwise have attained, but despite them,there was considerable growth of unauthorized settlements. 4. Following independence, these restrictions were lifted and during the 1963-69 period, migration to urban areas was extremely rapid, particularly among females (see Table 3). In fact, 89.5 percent of additional population growth in the country in this period took place in urban areas. The average rate of population growth in rural areas was only 1.1% per annum, while on average,the urban areas grew at almost 10 percent per annum. Since 90 percent of the urban population is concentrated in the Central and Copper- belt provinces,major interprovincial population movements occurred (see Table 5). 5. The most rapid growth occurred in the larger population centers, with one or two minor exceptions. Kafue, which was the most rapidly growing place of all,with an annual rate of expansion of 35 percent, is a planned industrial settlement about 25 miles from Lusaka. Lusaka, itself, was the most rapidly growing of the major cities with an annual rate of 13 percent. Most of the Copperbelt centers, except for Luanshya and Mufulira grew at rates of 10 percent per annum or more. The latter two towns are older established mining centers, in which mining activity has levelled off in recent years. From Tables 4 and 3, it is clear that the overwhelming propor- tion of the urban population of the country is concentrated in the Central and Copperbelt provinces. And, with the exception of Livingstone in Southern Province, no other centers had populations, in 1969, exceeding 15,000. The smaller commercial and administrative centers in the peripheral provinces generally grew at rates of about 5-7 percent during the 1963-1969 periods, and have populations of between 5,000 and 10,000. 6. Preliminary estimates from the 1974 Sample Census of Population provide an indication of the rate of population growth since 1969 (see Table 4). These show a reduction of the general rate of urban growth to about 6.4 percent per annum. Major declines have occurred in Lusaka, from 13.4 percent between 1963 and 1969 to 8.9 percent, in Kitwe, down from 8.4 to 4.7 percent and Chingola from 9.6 to 5.3 percent. On the other hand, growth has held up relatively in Ndola, down from 9.5 to 7.5 percent and Kabwe from 9.4 to 8.2 percent. Overall, the slow rate of growth of the copper mining industry is reflected in the relative decline in the share of the copperbelt mining towns in the population of the eight municipalities (see Table 6) and the rising share of Lusaka in particular and also of Ndola--a manufacturing and commercial center (see Annex II, Table 16), and Kabwe, more oriented to construction, transport and manufacturing. Popu- lation estimates for the smaller centers show a great deal of variability and no clear pattern. 7. The reasons for this slow-down may be twofold. During the first few years after independence, wage rates in urban areas increased rapidly and it has been suggested by a number of authors that the terms of trade  ANNEA X Page 3 turned sharply against agricultural producers. Given recent changes in producer prices for some agricultural commodities, these changes may have been arrested. Urban income levels may also not have been rising so rapidly in more recent years. This is discussed in more detail later. In addition, if there was a once-for-all increase in the movement of women into urban areas during the latter part of the 1960's, this effect may now have disappeared. 8. A set of projections of urban and rural populations in 1978 were made by the Population, Labor Force, Employment and Migration Committee in 1971. This projection was based on a rate of growth of urban areas of about seven percent per annum (see Table 7), with total urban population rising from 1.1 million in 1969 to almost 2.1 million in 1978. On the basis of the estimates presented above, current rates of urban population growth do appear to be more or less in line with these projections, which were used as the basis of estimates made for 1976 for the SNDP and which are given in Table 6. The latter estimates assume that about 87 percent of total urban growth will still take place in the Central and Copperbelt provinces, and that almost 80 percent of population growth will be in urban areas. As can be seen from Table 8, growth at this rate will mean that by 1978 approximately 40 percent of the total population of the country will be housed in urban areas. This table also indicates the dramatic nature of the changes which will have taken place, since in 1963 only approximately 19 percent of the population was housed in urban areas. Then in the short period of 15 years the urban proportion of the the population will have doubled, while the total popula- tion in urban areas will have trebled. Thus, in a period of 15-20 years, Zambia will have effectively changed from a rural to an urban based society. 9. Longer term projections of urban populations as a whole have not yet been made. The Town and Country Planning Department has, however, made a series of projections of populations of provinces and districts to the year 2000 for a number of different assumptions of birth rates, mortality and migration. 1/ Table 9 presents the figures based on the assumption which is currently seen as the most likely for the provinces and eight muni- cipalities. 2/ It is estimated that Lusaka will have grown to a population 1/ Department of Town and Country Planning. African Population Projections. Undated. 2/ Eight different assumptions were used, which comprised combinations of assumptions on fertility rates and male and female migration rates. That chosen assumed: a) Fertility rate falling from 0.2335 in 1970 to 0.18 in 1955. b) Male migration in 1970-75 at 85 percent of the 1963-69 rate, declining to 10 percent in 1995-2000. c) Female migration in 1970-75 at 80 percent of 1963-69 rate, declin- ing to 5 percent in 1995-2000.  ANNEX I Page 4 of 1.7 million, Kitwe to 920,000, Ndola to 770,000, and Chingola to 600,000. These figures appear to be very large but when the implied rates of population growth for the individual provinces and municipalities are estimated (see Table 10),it can be seen that they assume a declining rate of growth for the municipalities,so that by the year 1990 they will be growing at less than 4 percent per annum, compared to a national population growth rate of 3 per- cent per annum. Based upon experience in other parts of the world, it must be considered somewhat unlikely that the rate of urban population growth will have fallen to this extent, given the continued high national population growth rate. B. MIGRATION 1. The preceding discussion has shown that the very rapid rate of urban growth which has taken place has resulted from massive rural-urban migration,,which has in turn meant movement from the peripheral provinces to the Central and Copperbelt provinces. Table 5 showed that, in the 1963-69 period, this migration was rapid enough in the Northern and Luapula provinces to more than offset natural increase and to result in an actual decline in population where out-migration over the six years amounted to over 20 percent of the total population in 1963. 1/ Despite the pervasive extent of migration in Zambia, study of the phenomenon has been limited. The 1969 population census contained a question which it was hoped would provide some insights; respondents were asked where they were living one year prior to the date of enumeration. Responses however, were considered to be very unreliable and have subsequently been virtually ignored. The Central Statistical Office (C.S.O.) hopes to carry out a migration survey in 1975. 2. In the meantime, the 1963 and 1969 censuses can be used to provide some background on movements which have taken place. The 1969 census requested the respondents' age. This question was not well answered, with men over 15 tending to overstate and women understate their ages, and reported ages for both groups clustered around 5 year intervals, e.g., 20, 25, 30 etc. This is not an uncommon response and, subsequent to the census, an attempt was made to smooth out the age distributions obtained. This was done for each individual province. In Table 12 the estimated populations in each age by sex have been taken and the ratio of males to females calculated. The final column shows the national figures which indicate an unexpectedly low reported proportion of males in the 15-45 age groups. Why this occurred is not clear. In 1962 it has been estimated 2/ that there were 93,500 Zambians working in 1/ These two provinces were however, subject to religious based civil wars, which may have increased migration rates. 2/ Kay, A Social Geography of Zambia.  ANNEX I Page 5 other territories and 44,000 aliens working in Zambia. Thus there was an excess of out migrants of almost 50,000. Of the Zambians working elsewhere 45 percent were in Rhodesia, 17 percent in South Africa and 17 I:rcent in Zaire. The excess of females over males reported in the 1969 census was almost 83,000. Given the deterioration in relations with Rhodesia and South Africa following UDI, it would seem unlikely that the number of Zambians working in those countries increased after 1962, especially as official recruiting for the South African mines was terminated. Thus it is unlikely that the deficit of males is accounted for by those working in other countries. There may have been some under reporting, particularly in the 15-44 age group. 3. The table shows that the provinces are divided into three distinct groups: (a) Central and Copperbelt, which contain the major urban centers have marked surpluses of adult males over females. (b) The predominatly rural and non line of rail Eastern, Luapula, Northern, Northwestern and Western Provinces which all have marked deficits of adult males, particularly in the 20-35 age groups. (c) The Southern Province, on the line of rail, but mainly agricultural, whose sex ratios more closely approximate the national average than any other. Beyond the age of 50 the differences in male/female ratios become less marked, suggesting some return migration of males to their places of origin. Detailed information on this point is not available because of the failure of the migration question in the 1969 census, but the smoothed age distribu- tions produced from the census support this proposition. It is noticeable, however, that the male/female ratio remains relatively low for the Eastern Province throughout the adult age range, suggesting a lower propensity to return by males from this region. 4. Prior to Independence in 1963, the colonial government had attempted to restrict migration to the urban areas and there was some practice, particul- arly by mining companies, of recruiting male labor in rural areas for specified contract periods,during which the individual workers would be housed in bachelor quarters provided by employers. It has been suggested that the higher rate of migration in the period following independence was partly due to an increased movement of females into urban areas,once they were allowed to join their husbands. Some evidence of this point can be obtained from a comparison of the male/female ratios by province from the 1963 and 1969 census. These figures are presented in Table 13. Direct comparison of the figures which indicates a decline in the ratio during this period in several provinces is, however, somewhat misleading, because of the apparent national decline in the male/female ratio. If the provincial figures are deflated by the national average, the resulting figures give a better indication of  ANNEX I Page 6 the true changes which appear to have taken place. These resulting figures indicate that in the Central Province the male/female ratio was unchanged over the 1963 and 1969 period, whereas there was a decline in the Copperbelt Province and,at the same time,there was some increase in the Northwestern and Western Provinces. The other provinces also indicate relatively minor changes over the intervening period. For the Central and Copperbelt Provinces, therefore, the apparent changes are in the direction which would have been expected and therefore gives some support to the postulation made earlier. Table 13 also presents the figures for the eight major municipalities and these also show a consistent downward trend in male/female ratio, suggesting that the movement of females was a significant element in migration during this period. However, the figures presented in Table 13 show that the pro- portionate increase of females in urban areas was greater than that for males in all provinces. It may be expected that restrictions on migration of dependents would have been less rigorously enforced in smaller rural centers than in the major urban areas and,as a result,the change following relaxation of the restrictions to be correspondingly less marked. The apparent uniformity of the difference - about thirty percentage points,may suggest a change in the pattern of migration as the idea of permanent settlement in urban areas became more firmly established. 5. Some further insights into migration in Zambia can be obtained from data which was received from the CSO,indicating the place of birth and cur- rent place of residence of those enumerated for the 1969 census. The results of these enquiries suggest that mobility of the Zambian population is relatively high. Table 14 shows that the proportion of males born in any one province who were living in another province at the time of the census varied from 14% for those in the Copperbelt to 30% for those born in the Eastern province. Since almost 50% of the population is under 15 years of age, and will therefore only be enumerated as a migrant if the parents have moved, these proportions must be considered to be high. Among females, mobility was also high. The lowest proportionate movement was in Western Province, where 10% of those born in the province were living in other provinces in 1969. Again Eastern Province with 23% has the highest propor- tion of out-migrants. 6. The relative inflows and outflows of individuals are indicated by the ratio of those born elsewhere. As might be expected, the range is extremely high but again the provinces divided themselves into three clear groups,with the Central and Copperbelt Provinces having ratios of 3:1 and 6:1 respectively, i.e., a very large excess of in-migrants over out-migrants. The Southern Province again appears to be approximately in balance with a ratio of 1.04, whereas the non line- of -rail provinces show a very large excess of out- migrants over in-migrants falling from 3:1 in Luapula to 10:1 in Eastern Province. Similar figures are seen for females. 7. More detailed examination of the data on place of origin indicates a number of clear migratory flows. Tables 15 and 16 show the percentage breakdown by place of birth for the eight provinces for males and females.  ANNEX I Page 7 The major source of migrants to the Central Province has clearly been from Eastern Province,with smaller numbers from the Northern and Southern Provinces, and also a relatively significant number from Rhodesia. The other major recipient province is Copperbelt,which received the largest number of migrants from Northern and Luapula provinces,and with slightly smaller numbers from Eastern and Central Provinces. Because of the relatively low existing popula- tions, the numbers of migrants from Western and Northwestern Provinces were relatively low. Those from Western Province moved to Southern, Central and Copperbelt Provinces in that order, whereas those from Northwestern went overwhelmingly to the Copperbelt. 8. Table 17 shows male/female ratios for each of the provinces by place of birth of respondents. These figures indicate two major patterns. The first is a tendency for the male/female ratio to be highest for persons from more distant origins. Thus, for those currently living in the Copper- belt, ratios are higher for those from Eastern and Northern than for those from Central and Luapula Provinces. Similarly, for those born in the Eastern Provinces but who have migrated, the ratio of males to females is highest in Western Province and Luapala Province,declining to its lowest in Central Province, the latter being the province with which Eastern Province is most closely linked, both physically and economically. There also tends to be a higher male/female ratio among migrants from some sources, e.g. Western Province and Malawi. These places were both areas where the South African and Rhodesian mining companies had well established recruiting networks prior to the 1960's, and it may be that the pattern of short-term migration of males which was thus developed has become fairly firmly established, even where males migrate on an individual rather than a contractual basis. It may be that this practice will become less marked in the next few years. On the other hand, the reported ratio of males to females among migrants from Rhodesia is particularly low, and this may be a reflection of the fact that a number of these are undoubtedly political refugees and either (a) the males are in Rhodesia but have moved the women and children to Zambia for purposes of safety, or (b) that the males were reluctant to indicate their presence by responding to the census question for fear that it might be used against them. 9. The most interesting feature which emerges from this analysis is the apparent balance in inflows and outflows in the Southern Province and the balanced male/female ratios and age distributions which have resulted. The reasons for this are not entirely clear, since available data suggests income levels in Southern Province are below those in Central and Copperbelt Provinces. Some indication of the possible reasons may be obtained by an investigation of the apparent labor market conditions in the provinces. If the resident male population in the 20-60 age group is compared with those reported in the census as being in employment, as in Table 18, a clear distinction between the line-of-rail provinces and the others is apparent. In the three provinces of Central, Copperbelt and Southern, there is an approximate one-to-one ratio between the two figures, whereas in the non line-of-rail provinces the number of males actually working was 75 or less  ANNEX I Page 8 the number of men in the 20-60 age bracket. The census report suggested that this low figure may have been in part because of the coincidence of the census with the dry season reduction in agricultural activity. 10. The most interesting comparison is between the Eastern and Southern Provinces,for these are the two provinces in which smallholder agriculture is most fully developed, the main difference between them is that the South- ern Province was an important area of expatriate farm development. Twenty-six percent of those in wage employment in Southern Province are in agriculture, compared to 9 percent in Eastern Province. Wage levels in agricultural employment are, however, significantly below those in other activities and the above figures may suggest that employment opportunities,rather than levels of remuneration themselves,are important in determining the extent of out- migration. It is not clear whether those employed in agriculture in Southern Province are able to engage in some agricultural activity on their own account,and provide themselves at least with subsistence,in addition to cash income received from their employment, or whether there is a general lack of interest among men in operating a smallholder agricultural enterprise so that,if income earning possibilities are not available nearby, individuals will move elsewhere. The answer to this question may be of considerable importance in judging the most appropriate agricultural policy for the country, if one of its major goals is to be the slowing of the rate of rural/ urban migration, since it may suggest that some emphasis on the creation of employment opportunities in larger-scale enterprises might be more useful than attempts to increase the levels of incomes of semi-subsistence producers. A tracer study of secondary school leavers recently initiated by the University of Zambia Educational Research Center,may throw some further light on this question. Some preliminary results for schools in rural areas show that within a year of graduation more than 90% of the school leavers had left for urban areas. C. URBAN EMPLOYMENT 1. The 1969 Census indicated that approximately 1.15 million persons, or 28 percent of the population,reported themselves as being in the labor force. Of these,some 760,000 indicated that they were currently working and their breakdown by sector of employment is shown in Table 19. As noted in the previous section,it is assumed that the reported figures understate the actual proportion of the population engaged in agriculture,because of the seasonal downturn in activity. Of those reporting,56 percent were in non-agricultural activities, with 25 percent in services, mining and commerce. Table 20 compares the census figures for Africans with those reported in June 1969 by the semi-annual employment survey carried out by the Central Statistical Office. This survey covers registered enterprises and therefore may be taken to closely approximate what is frequently referred to as the "formal sector" of the economy. While there may be some discrepancies because of differences in definition, as a whole, almost 90 percent of those  ANNEX I Page 9 Africans employed in sectors other than agriculture and services, appear to be in the "formal sector". This is a very high proportion by the standards of most developing countries. 2. Sectoral employment in 1961 and 1972 is compared in Table 21. Over this period, total wage employment increased by approximately 46 percent. Slight falls were experienced in agriculture and domestic service. Other services, including government services,increased by 60 percent in the same period, while the remaining activities expanded by almost 70 percent. How- ever, at the same time, the total non-African employment fell from 32,000 to 26,000. As a result African employment in the urban based formal sector activities has increased over the eleven year period from 163,000 to 300,000, or by almost 90 percent. This is an annual rate of 5.7 percent per annum, which appears to be somewhat below the rate of growth of the urban male popu- lation, which has been around 7 percent. The above figures are based on the employment survey, which probably has a poorer coverage of smaller Zambian operated enterprises, e.g., in construction, transportation and services, than of the larger public or expatriate enterprises. 3. Clearly, therefore, this rapid expansion in urban employment opportunities,coupled with the decline in agricultural wage employment, exerted a major pull factor on rural-urban migration. The result has been rapid urban growth without the creation of high levels of unemployment. Table 22 shows the breakdown of employment for the sample studied in the 1966-68 Household Budget Survey. This shows that,at that time,an average of 2.8 percent of the heads of households were unemployed. This proportion varied from a low of 1.2 in Kabwe to a high of 4.2 in Mongu. This Survey covered all African housing areas at that time. The results of more recent surveys in squatter areas in Lusaka are summarized in Table 23. These indicate a range of between 4.8 and 9.1 percent for the rate of unemployment among householders. These changes should not be taken to indicate an in- crease in the rate of unemployment,since the latter surveys did not cover areas of local authority or company housing,in which one would expect the proportion of unemployed householders to be much lower. 4. Data for all adult males in a series of squatter settlements in Lusaka in 1969,indicated that just under 75 percent of them were employed. A more recent survey in Kitwe,covering lowcost housing areas as a whole, indicated that approximately 82.5 percent of adult males were in employment. Of the remaining 17.5 percent, 7 percent were either students or not in the labor force, while 10.5 percent indicated that they were unable to find work (see Table 25). These data have been disaggregated by the type of township, and it is noticeable that the proportion of males unable to find work is less than 10 percent in all areas except mine townships,where 20 percent were reported in this category. Since the average monthly income for this group was approximately K130 ($200) (about double that for the rest of the sample), it may be reasonably assumed that a number of those without work fall into a category of voluntarily,rather than involuntarily unemployed, since they  ANNEX I Page 10 would appear to be under much less pressure to take the first opportunity of employment than those from other areas of the city. Currently available information from this Kitwe survey does not enable us to ascertain the age or educational achievement of the individuals in the unemployed category. Data from this Kitwe survey do, however, show that on the average there were 1.2 men per household and almost exactly one employed adult male per household. As a result, since there were approximately 1.2 households per house, each house contained in excess of one adult income earner. 5. Another characteristic feature of urban areas in Zambia is the relatively low level of self-employment. Table 23 shows that,in the Lusaka squatter areas surveyed, approximately 15 percent of the householders were in this category. Directly comparable data are not available for the city as a whole or elsewhere, but Table 27, showing the breakdown by occupation groups for all the working population in squatter areas in Lusaka and the city as a whole, does indicate a high proportion of individuals in activities in which self-employment is likely to be small. Sales workers, for example, including salesmen and shop assistants made up slightly less than 8 percent of the total employment in the city, while agricultural workers which included charcoal burners, comprised some 4 percent, whereas 80 percent or more of the total were professional, administrative, clerical, service and productive workers (mechanics, bricklayers, transport operators etc.). Table 25 shows a similar picture in Kitwe,where again retail workers were only 7 percent in total and agricultural/forestry workers 9 percent. The latter were principally charcoal burners and these were heavily concentrated in the squatter townships. 6. A survey carried out in a major Lusaka squatter settlement gives a picture of activities in which the self employed are engaged. Just over 50 percent of the sample were in some form of retailing - 80 percent of these as street sellers. Most of the latter have stalls in local markets. The extent of small scale manufacturing and repair services is low. The eleven individuals reported in the survey represent under 2 percent of the total employed. 7. The reasons for the low proportion of employment in retailing activities and also in self-employment is not entirely clear. During the colonial period and since, there have been restrictions on retail activities and licences are normally required in order to engage in this type of occupa- tion. This has almost certainly had some effect in reducing the number of individuals involved. At the same time, there is an absence in Zambian cities of the extensive trading carried on by women, which is so common in other parts of Africa. In fact, the participation of women in the labor force is very low. Table 27 shows that in a sample of townships surveyed in Kitwe, only 6.7 percent of the women were working,whereas 7 percent said that they could not find work, 8 percent were too old or sick and 76.7 percent indicated that they looked after the house. These proportions varied somewhat in different types of townships, with those apparently viewing themselves as in the labor force varying from 11 percent in a site and services housing  ANNEX I Page 11 scheme to 21 percent in mine townships. A further survey in squatter areas in Lusaka reported that less than 8 percent of the wives earned additional income for the family and, for the country as a whole, the number of women in employment is only around 10 percent of the labor force. 8. A further employment related factor which undoubtedly stimulated urbanization has been Zambianization. Since 1963 in particular,efforts have been made to replace skilled and semi-skilled expatriates with Zambians. Table 27 shows the progress made in the first few years. In the mining sector,the number of Zambians in positions formerly held by expatriates in- creased five fold in the first five years after independence. In Government, progress had been rapid in administrative, executive, professional and clerical posts, with slower progress in technical and educational work. In 1971 a similar position still prevailed (see Table 29), with high proportions of expatriates in medical, educational, and secretarial posts. Additionally, at that time about 18 percent of all posts were vacant, many in areas which could be filled by Zambians after training,e.g. clerical, administrative, personnel, nurses and medical assistants. There is therefore a continuing demand for graduates of the educational and training system in occupations which are primarily urban based while opportunities in rural areas are few. The SNDP forecast a demand for trained personnel of almost 5,000 per year in 1976,while planned output was only about 1,700. Clearly,in such a situa- tion,the main urban areas will be more successful in meeting their needs than rural areas. The continued movement of trained manpower to cities will induce others to follow. 9. The SNDP projected an increase in employment of wage paid labor from 405,000 to 505,000 over the period of the Plan, i.e. 1971 to 1976 (see Table 30). This represents a rate of growth of 4.6 percent per annum or slightly in excess of the projected labor force growth of 4.2 percent. The overall projected growth of the urban labor force is 7.6 percent (see Table 31). During the period to 1978, it is anticipated that male participation rates will decline slightly from 49 percent to 46 percent of the total population (see Table 32). On the other hand, the female participation rate is expected to rise from 14 to just over 20 percent. As a result, the expected rate of increases in the labor force are 6 percent for men and 12.7 percent for women. 10. The effect of these increases on urban employment are difficult to assess. Table 33 presents an estimate based on existing levels of employ- ment. Total employment has been divided into formal and informal sectors on the basis of the reported breakdown of the labor force for urban districts in the 1969 Census. The formal sector has been taken as those reported as "employers" or "employees". This probably overestimates formal sector employ- ment slightly. 11. Assuming that current employment rates for males and females are maintained, the numbers in employment in 1976 would be 384,100 males and 82,200 females. Approximately 83,000 of the jobs projected in the SNDP may be in urban areas. Partitioning this between males and females on the basis  ANNEX I Page 12 of the estimated 1971 ratios (10 males/1 female), yields total formal sector employment of 328,000 males and 32,500 females. Assuming the balance of those working are in the informal sector, this will grow from 54,000 persons in 1971 to 105,000 in 1976, or at an annual rate of 14 percent per annum. Numbers of males in the informal sector would rise at 10 percent per annum and those of women by almost 20 percent (see Table 34). At the other extreme, if the formal sector employment is split between men and women on the basis of their proportionate entry into the labor force, formal sector employment of women would increase by 14 percent per annum, and that of men by 4.4 percent. 12. The actual outcome is likely to fall between these two extremes. In any event, there is likely to be an increase of about 5 percent per annum in male formal sector employment, as opposed to a growth of about 6 percent in the labor force. Informal sector employment will therefore have to take up this slack and would probably rise from about 14 percent of gainful employment to perhaps 17 percent or more. In this regard, extended site and service housing programs could play a significant role in generating an increasing demand for small scale activities in the construction and related sectors. D. URBAN INCOMES 1. A number of studies over the past few years have presented data on incomes of Africans in urban areas in Zambia. While these all appear to have been derived from somewhat different samples, they do provide a reason- ably consistent picture of the distribution of incomes in urban areas. They do, however, appear to leave some questions unanswered which could be important from a policy point of view and might be investigated further. 2. The major study, which has been carried out on consumption patterns, was the Household Budget Survey run between 1966 and 1968 in low-cost African housing areas in nine towns in Zambia, by the Central Statistical Office. The results of this study have been used as a source of income distribution figures for the low cost housing areas. However, perusal of the results of the survey indicates that the distributions obtained may be inaccurate, particularly at the lower scale income levels, and should there- fore be interpreted with caution. 3. The survey was carried out on a total sample of 2576 households, in the nine towns. In order to overcome the problem of seasonal variations and to keep down the overall cost, the following method was adopted. The overall sample in each town was randomly divided into 12 sub-samples (3-6 in the smaller towns). Each of these sub groups was then surveyed for one month. Each household was visited by an enumerator everv day and a record of all receipts and expenditures made through an entire month. This process was repeated with a similar sub-sample in the following month, with the whole survey in a town extending over a year. The results from the individual sub groups were aggregated to obtain composite results for each town and  ANNEX I Page 13 for the country as a whole. The national results as presented are summarized in Table 30. The income and expenditure figures are further surmiarized in Table 31. 4. Income received included: wages and salaries, income from property, business profits and consumption of home produced goods. This therefore omits gifts and loans received by the households which were proportionately much more significant in the households with low incomes. Consumption expenditure covers all disbursements except those for gifts and loans to others and "other expenditures" (on average 4.5 percent of total), which are not defined but presumably include payments to savings accounts. In the lowest income group, receipts from all sources, including imputed income gifts and loans, amounted to an average K10.65 during the survey month, while total disbursements amounted to K53.91 in the same period. For the K10-20 group the corresponding figures were K17.80 and K48.93 respectively. The households in these groups were thus spending in excess of income to the extent of over K40 per month at the time of the survey. Clearly this is not a situation which could persist over an extended period of time unless receipts from gifts or loans increased considerably, or the household had substantial savings on which to draw. 5. There appear to be three possible reasons for these discrepancies: (a) Heads of households or other members may have been temporarily out of work during the month of the survey. It was reported that 5 percent of household heads were unemployed when surveyed. (b) Substantial under-reporting of incomes may have occurred at the lower income levels. (c) Month to month variation in income, resulting from fluctua- tions in activity by self-employed, overtime variations, bonuses, etc. Households with unusually low receipts in the month of survey would therefore be counted in a low income group, even though their average income was considerably higher. Similarly,there may have been some overstatement of numbers in higher income groups because of above average earnings during the month of the survey. Thus the survey method adopted may not have adequately dealt with the problem of seasonal fluctuations as intended,nor with the problem of the random nature of some incomes in any short period. For income groups with recorded incomes of over K20 per month, receipts and expenditures match more closely and are clearly more representative of the normal monthly situtation for those households. However, since just over 13 percent of the sample fell into the K20 and under categories, the question of whether these figures are to be taken as representative of incomes of the population of low-cost housing areas is clearly of some importance.  ANNEX I Page 14 6. For purposes of comparison,Table 32 shows reported incomes for households in Kitwe for a sample from low-cost housing areas and squatter settlements taken in 1972. This shows 5 percent of households having incomes of less than K20 per month. These figures are summarized on Table 33, together with figures for two other surveys in Lusaka, the first from a squatter settlement and the second from a survey of site and service schemes. Some of the differences between the results of these surveys may be accounted for by differences in method, as well as the different sites used. Both the Household Budget Survey and the Kitwe Survey do show a positive relation- ship between household size and household income, see Tables 30 and 34,and also the Kitwe Survey indicated an average of 1.0 adult males employed per household and since there was an average of more than one household per house, an average of 1.22 employed males per house. These figures, and the problems of obtaining income data as highlighted by the Budget Study,suggest that investigation into the circumstances of the very low income households, e.g. those recorded in the 1972 survey of George,might be useful in indicat- ing the extent of real poverty. Many of these households may be comprised of only one or two persons, perhaps recent migrant living with relative. As such therefore they may not, for example, be potentially in the market for individual housing units. 7. In general, the data suggests that in the major urban areas in Zambia, the number of households with monthly incomes of below K20 ($30) is perhaps only about 5 percent of the total. In fact,when the median incomes estimated for the different townships in Kitwe are expressed on a per capita basis,a strikingly uniform figure of about K9 per person per month ($14) is obtained, except in the mine households. This does suggest adjustment of household sizes to fit available resources and possibly some sensitivity of migration to economic conditions. 8. While the income distribution data presented by the Household Budget Survey are open to some question, it may be assumed that the average income recorded by this Survey was a reasonable reflection of the income levels obtained at the time of the Survey. These showed average monthly incomes of almost K60 per household. In the sample survey, the average size of a household was 5.4. This meant an average monthly income per head of Kll (see Table 35). While there were some variations among the towns surveyed, this was not large, and not subject to any systematic interpreta- tion. Table 32 shows the income distribution for the townships surveyed in 1972 in Kitwe. This indicates an approximate average monthly income for the sample as a whole of K66 per household,or about K12.5 per head. While the two samples are not strictly comparable, they do suggest an increase of perhaps about 15 percent in per capita incomes over this period of time. At the same time, Table H shows that the consumer price index for lower income groups has increased by about 30 percent over the same period. This may suggest some decline in real incomes in urban areas for the African population as a whole over this period.  ANNEX I Page 15 9. At the same time however, reported average annual earnings over this period show a substantial rise (see Table 37). Earnings rose particularly rapidly in the 1964 to 1969 period, but appear to have levelled off since that time. There is some problem in interpretation of the 1966-68 survey since it took place during the period of rapidly rising incomes. The recorded average from the survey of K60 was fairly close to the reported average earnings of Africans in all industries (Table 37). The Kitwe survey in early 1973 indicated an average of K66 per month (Table 32). This compares to a reported average wage of K960 in 1972 for all industries including agriculture. This may indicate under-reporting of incomes in the Kitwe survey, relative under-representation of higher income groups in the latter survey or a relative shift to activities with lower earnings. There may have been some increase in informal or semi-formal activities, i.e. in smaller enterprises not covered by official surveys, and which are also less likely to be covered by union wage agreements and labor legislation. If there has been some relative deterioration in the position of the lower income groups in urban areas in the past few years, then this may be related to the apparent slow-down in rural/urban migration, especially since the relationship between income and household size does indicate a sensitivity to the economic situation in determining family arrangements. 10. The 1966-68 Household Budget Survey contained three small townships in its sample, Chipata, Choma and Mongu. The average household incomes reported in these townships show no effective difference from those in the municipalities (see Table 35). This is probably to be expected since a large proportion of those employed in these townships are in the public sector and thus subject to national wage scales.  ANNEX I Table 1 EJROPEAN POPULATION IN MAJOR TOWNS 1946 1951 1956 1969 Livingstone 1326 2316 3673 n.a. Lusaka 2813 4656 9449 n.a. Kabve 1671 2851 4250 n.a. Chililabombwe 1787 n.a. Chingola 1163 2602 4851 n.a. Kitwe 2951 5225 10393 n.a. Luanshya 2741 4676 6161 n.a. Mufulira 2146 3703 5730 n.a. Ndola 1242 2907 7384 n.a. TOTAL 16053 28936 53678 43390 Source: Central Statistical Office Censuses of Population, 19146, 1951,1956 and 1969.  ANNEX I Table 2 AFRICANS IN 4PL0YMENT BY TOWN AND YEAR 1/ 1/ 1/ 1946 1951 1956 19617 1963- 1969- Livingstone 6369 9604 9555 10609 8980 12112 Lusaka 7763 14756 22444 30116 32460 39816 Kabwe 6821 9400 9990 9149 11730 16600 Chililabombve ( 7861 7201 7870 8918 Chingola 5839 12267 ( 13142 13397 12380 20552 Kitwe 15457 22406 26387 29718 31500 48144 Luanshya 13o47 19651 19115 14733 14370 17705 Mufulira 10223 16688 15740 17933 15220 19426 Ndola 6737 12928 22221 21070 20730 34787 TOTAL 72256 117706 146455 153926 155240 218060 1/ Males only. Source: Central Statistical Office Censuses of Population, 1946, 1951, 1956, 1963 and 1969.  ANNEX I Table 3 DISTRIBUTION OF THE INCREASE IN THE URBAN POPULATION DURING 1963-1969 BY PROVINCE AND THE PERCENTAGE IN THE URBAN POPULATION DURING 1963-1969 IN THE PROVINCE Proportion of Percentage Province urban population increase in the increase during urban population 1963-1969 during 1963-1 969 Males Females Males Females Copperbelt 65.0 65.8 51.6 77.5 Central 27.6 25.9 67.5 93.0 Southern 3.4 4.0 27.5 49.8 Luapula 0.9 1.0 60.4 106.6 Northern 0.4 0.7 21.9 58.3 Eastern 1.1 1.3 51.5 88.5 Northwestern - - _ Western 1.6 1.3 134.7 161.5 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Central Statistical Office Censuses of Population, 1963 and 1969.  ANNEX I Table 4 DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH OF ZAMBIAN TOWNS,-/BY PROVINCE, 1963-1974 Population Rate of Growth Percent per Annum Province Town 1963 1969 1974 1963-69 1969-74 Western Mongu 4,279 10,107 11,859 15.4 3.3 Central Lusaka 123,510 262,425 401,000 13.4 8.9 Kabwe 39,522 65 ,74 98,000 9.4 8.2 Kafue 2,043 12,500 19,625 35.5 9.4 Serenje 3,112 4,241 4,498 5.3 1.2 Eastern Chipata 8,527 13,500 16,585 8.0 4.2 Luapula Mansa 5,228 9,012 7,937 9.5 -2.6 Kawambwa 6,180 8,318 2,762 5.1 -15.0 Sainfya 4,161 5,656 5,722 5.2 0.2 Northern Kasama 6,734 8,924 16,412 4.8 13.0 Mbala 3,644 5,282 7,611 6.4 7.6 Isoka 3,361 4,545 3,556 5.2 -5.0 Southern Choma 6,940 11,9h0 10,413 9.5 -2.7 Mazabuka 5,406 6,274 10,869 2.5 11.6 Kalomo 4,989 6,565 4,697 4.8 -6.9 Livingstone 33,026 45,243 58,000 5.3 5.1 Monze 3,238 4,181 5,131 4.4 4.0 Copperbelt Chililabombwe 34,165 44,862 56,ooo 4.7 4.5 Chingola 59,517 103,292 134,000 9.6 5.3 Kalulushi 21,303 32,272 41,000 7.2 4.9 Kitwe 123,027 199,798 251,000 8.4 4.7 Luanshya 75,332 96,282 121,000 4.2 4.7 Mufulira 80,609 107,802 136,000 5.0 4.8 Ndola 92,691 159,786 229,000 9.5 7.5 Total 705,897 1,230,882 1,652,677 9.7 6.1 Source: C.S.O. Sample Census of Population, Preliminary Report, February 1975. 1/ Places with populations of over 4,000 in 1969.  ANNE( I Table 5 REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH OF POPULATION DURING 1963-1969 AND 1969-1974 (IN 1,000 PERSONS) Province Population Net In@rease Net Migration 1/ 1/ 2/ 1/ 1/ 2/ 1963 1969- 1974 1963-1969 1969-1974 1963-1969 1969-1997 1. Luapula 366 345 321 - 21 - 24 - 82 - 61 2. Northern 578 560 580 - 18 + 20 -116 - 50 3. Eastern 492 520 568 + 28 + 48 - 55 - 22 4. Northwestern 216 236 256 + 20 + 20 - 16 - 12 5. Western 372 420 463 + 48 + 43 - 14 - 12 6. Southern 477 503 540 + 26 + 37 - 54 - 34 Sub Total 2,500 2,584 2,728 + 83 +144 -336 -196 7. Central 490 707 920 +217 +213 +135 + 95 8. Copperbelt 520 809 1,o46 +289 +237 +201 +101 Sub Total 1,010 1,516 1,966 +506 +45o +336 +196 TOTAL 3,511 4,100 4,694 +589 +594 0 0 1/ Actual Census Results 1/ Sample Census estimate Source: Republic of Zambia; Second National Development Plan, p. 168 and Central Statistical Office, Sample Census of Population 1974 Preliminary Report.  ANNEX I Table 5a DISTRIBUTION OF POPUL&TION BY SETTLEfENT SIZE GROUPS, ZAMBIA AND W. MALAYSIA Zambia (1969) V. Malaysia (1970) Population Size Number of Percent of Number of Percent of Group Places Total Population Places Total Population Up to 5,000 n.a. 70.0 n.a. 65.9 5,000 - 10,000 7 1.2 59 5.3 10,000 - 20,000 4 1.2 16 3.5 20,000 - 30,000 - _ 7 2.0 30,000 - 50,000 1 1.1 4 1.9 50,000 - 75,000 1 1.7 4.6 9 75,000 - 100,000 1 2.4 3.0 Over 100,000 5 22.4 5 13.8 Total Population 4,057 8,808 (thousands) Source: Zambia. 1969 Census of Population. Malaysia. 1970 Census of Population.  ANNEX I Table 6 DISTRIBUTION OF MUNICIPAL POPULATION BY MUNICIPALITY, 1963-74 Share of Total Municipal Population Municipality 1963 1969 1974 Chingola 13.7 13.3 12.5 Kitwe 21.2 20.8 19.1 Luanshya 11.0 8.6 7.9 Mufulira 11.8 9.6 8.9 Ndola 13.6 14.3 15.0 Kabwe 5.8 5.9 6.4 Lusaka 18.1 23.5 26.3 Livingstone 4.8 4.0 3.8 Total Population 682,338 1,117,736 1,525,000 Source: Central Statistical Office: Sample Census of Population 1974, Preliminary Report, February 1975.  ANNEX I Table 7 DISTRIBUTION OF THE PROJECTED TOTAL POPULATION BY RURAL AND URBAN AREAS SEPARATELY FOR MAIES AND FEKALES (In Thousands) Year Urban Population Rural Population Total Population X F T M F T M F T 1963 376 291 667 1365 1478 2843 1741 1769 3510 1969 584 514 1098 1452 1549 3001 2036 2063 4099 1971 671 608 1279 1483 1574 3057 2154 2182 4336 1972 718 659 1377 1498 1582 3080 2216 2241 4457 1973 767 712 1479 1509 1590 3099 2276 2302 4578 1976 936 886 1822 1551 1626 3177 2487 2512 4999 1977 997 949 1946 1566 1636 3202 2563 2585 5148 1978 1062 1014 2076 1577 1650 3227 2639 2664 5303 Note: M - Males; F - Females; T = Both Sexes Combined Source: G.R.Z. Report of the Population, Labour Foroe, Employment and Migration Planning Committee, mimeo, 1971, p.73.  ANNEX I Table 8 DISTRIBUTION OF PROJECTED TOTAL POPULATION BY RURAL AND URBAN AREAS SEPARATELY FOR MALES AND FEKALES (Percentage) Urban Population Rural Population Year Male Female Total Male Female Total 1963 21.6 16.5 19.0 98.9 83.h 81.0 1969 28.7 2h.9 26.8 71.3 95.1 93.2 1971 31.2 27.8 29.h 68.8 72.2 90.6 1972 32.h 29.h 30.9 67.6 70.6 69.1 1973 33.7 30.9 32.3 66.3 69.1 69.9 1976 37.6 35.3 36.5 62.4 6h.7 63.5 1977 38.9 36.7 37.8 61.1 63.3 62.2 1978 40.2 38.1 39.2 59.8 61.9 60.8 Source: Ibid.  ANNE I Table9 ZAMBIA: EXPECTED POPULATIDN, 1975-2000 BY PROVINCE MND MUNICIPALIT Province Municipality 1969 1975 1980 1990 2000 Western 411697 465240 515349 642066 831510 Southern 490535 527147 576537 725767 958253 Livingstone 49063 62306 80869 129305 191090 Northern 546346 535757 554023 653585 851249 Northwestern 232135 254535 276935 338595 437538 Luapula 336942 322122 327552 379147 492336 Eastern 508519 540996 582435 710987 924265 Copperbelt 785492 1117154 1409795 2087056 2870636 Chingola 148154 212268 277037 429665 603935 Kitwe 232070 331647 431417 659156 916171 Mufulira 107802 134464 155138 199146 254195 Luanshya 96282 114350 127113 154672 192380 Ndola 159786 238916 326992 537318 773629 Central 686994 935969 1158408 1672545 2280650 Kabwe 85437 110515 129679 161292 199030 Lusaka 257900 445089 663244 1168639 1712333 Zambia 3998658 4698772 5400981 7210033 9647124 Source: Republic of Zambia, Department of Town and Country Planning (Undated)  ANNEX I Table 10 ZAMBIA: PROJECTED RATES OF POPUIATION GROWTH BY PROVINCE AND MUNICIPALITY, 1969-2000 Province Municipality. 1969-75 1975-80 1980-90 1990-2000 Western 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.6 Southern 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.8 Livingstone 4.1 5.4 4.8 4.0 Northern -0.3 0.7 1.7 2.7 Northwestern 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.6 Luapula -0.8 0.3 1.5 2.7 Eastern 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.7 Copperbelt 6.1 h.8 4.0 3.2 Chingola 5.3 5.5 4.5 3.5 Kitwe 6.1 5.4 4.3 3.3 Mufulira 3.7 2.9 2.5 2.5 Luanshya 2.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 Ndola 6.9 6.5 5.1 3.7 Central 5.3 4.4 3.7 3.2 Kabwe 4.4 3.3 2.2 2.1 Lusaka 9.5 8.3 5.8 3.9 Total Zambia 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 Source: Computed from Table 9  ANNEX I Table 11 PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY PROVINCE AND MUNICIPALITY Province Municipality 1975 1980 1990 2000 Western 9.90 9.54 8.90 8.62 Southern 11.22 10.67 10.07 9.93 Livingstone 1.33 1.50 1.79 1.98 Northern 11.40 10.26 9.o6 8.82 Northwestern 5.42 5.13 4.70 4.54 Luapula 6.86 6.06 5.26 5.10 Eastern 11.51 10.78 9.86 9.58 Copperbelt 23.78 26.10 28.95 29.76 Chingola & Chil 4.52 5.13 5.96 6.26 Kitwe & Kal. 7.06 7.99 9.14 9.50 Mufulira 2.87 2.87 2.76 2.63 Luanshya 2.43 2.35 2.15 1.99 Ndola 5.08 6.05 7.45 8.02 Central Kabwe 2.35 2.40 2.2h 2.o6 Lusaka 9.47 12.28 16.21 17.75 Source: Computed from Table 9  ZAMJIAi MtALE-FRULE RATiDS BY PROVINCE AND AZ! GIDUPS, 1969 (Males per 1,000 Females) Age Group Central Copperbelt Eastern Luapula Northern N. Western Southern Western ZAMBIA