Report No. 490-ZA FLE Copy Urban Sector Survey Republic of Zambia (In Two Volumes) Volume 1: Main Text May 24, 1976 Transportation and Urban Projects Department Development Economics Department FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US$1 Kwacha 0.643 Kwacha 1 (Kl) US$1.556 Ngwee (n) 100 = Kl Mwacha 1 million = us$1,555,56o ABBREVIATIONS 1 meter (in) 3.28 feet (ft) 1 square meter (m2) = 10.76 square feet (sq ft) 1 kilometer = 0.62 miles (mi) 1 hectare (ha) 2.47 acres 1 liter (1) = 0.246 US gallons (gal) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CSO Central Statistical Office DDC District Development Committee FNDP First National Development Plan GRZ Government of the Republic of Zambia IDZ Intensive Development Zones MOLGH Ministry of Local Government and Housing MOE Ministry of Education NHA National Housing Authority PDC Provincial Development Committee SNDP Second National Development Plan UNIP United National Independence Party FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY ZAMBIA URBAN SECTOR SURVEY Table of Contents Page No. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ..........******...................* i-v INTRODUCTION * *** *** *.............................. ............... . 1 1. DEVELOPMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE ......... 3 Post Independence Development Planning . ..... ... .. ..... 3 1964 - 1970 Preparation and Execution of the First National Development Plan ..... .......to 3 1970 - 1974 The Second National Development Plan and the One-Party State ................ 4 The Planning Process at the National Level ....... 7 The Institutional Framework for Urban and Regional Development ....... ...... . ....... ........* *. 9 Urban Development Institutions ................... 9 Regional Development Institutions .............. .... 10 Decentralization for Urban and Regional Development ... ......... .......... . 10 2. URBANIZATION AND SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT IN ZAMBIA ........ 12 Introduction ....................*********** ......... 12 Structure of the Economy ..... . . . . ... . ..... ... . 12 Locational Factors in Development .. ................... 13 Urban Growth . ........................ ................* 13 Urban Concentration * . ............. .................... 14 Urban System .......... . ..................... 14 Concentration of Economic Activity ..... ............... 15 Migration *.... .*****....... .....** ............... 15 Employment ................. .......................... .... 16 Incomes to*...*....* ........... *........................ 18 Summary *a............................................. o...... 19 This Report was prepared by Messrs. J. English and M. Cohen (Development Economics Department). The mission visited Zambia in September 1973. The draft report was submitted to Government in July 1974. Because of uncer- tainty over policy on decentralization formal comments from Government were not received until Autumn 1975. The report has also been revised to incor- porate the results of the 1974 sample census and to reflect major policy changes. It has not, however, been possible to update the bulk of the report and this remains essentially as initially written. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. -2- Page No. 3. PROSPECTS FOR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT .................... 20 The Problem ........................................... 20 The Structure of Manufacturing ........................ 20 Scope for Decentralization of Manufacturing .... ....... 21 Need for Integrated Agricultural - Urban Development .. 23 The Long-Term Role of Agriculture ..................... 23 I?uture Population Balance ............................. 24 The Future Urban System ............................... 24 An Urban Strategy ..................................... 25 Urban-Regional Development in Tanzanian Corridor ...... 25 4. THE URBAN AREAS .................. ..................... 28 A. Cities and Municipalities ........................ 28 1. Introduction ................................ 28 2. The Structure of Towns ...................... 28 3. Housing and Infrastructure .... .............. 30 The Housing Stock ........ .. ............ 30 Post Independence Policies ..... ........ 31 Housing Development at the Local Level . 33 Costs in Site and Service Schemes ...... 34 Target Populations ......... ............ 36 4. Municipal Finance ........................... 37 Sources of Revenue ......... ............ 37 Central Control over Local Finance Decisions ......... .. .............. 38 Expanding the Tax Base ....... .......... 39 General Rate Fund Positions ..... ....... 40 Issues in Municipal Finance ..... ....... 41 B. The Townships .................................... 43 1. Site and Service Schemes .... ................ 44 2. Township Finance ............................ 46 5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMM1ENDATIONS ........ .. ............. 48 A. Development Policy Problems ...................... 49 The Locus of Development Planning and Project Implementation ......... .. .............. 49 Central-Local Fiscal Relations .... .......... 50 -3- Page No. B. Urban Policy Problems ............... . ............ 50 Land ............ ............. 50 Public Finance ............. 51 The Role of Municipal Government Institutions 51 C. Recommendations for Bank Involvement in the Urban Sector .......... 52 Development of Regional Centers ........... . . 52 The Major Urban Centers ..................... 53 LIST OF TABLES 1. Sectoral Distribution of Gross Domestic Product 1965 and 1974 (at 1965 prices) 2. Zambian Cities, Municipalities and Townships - Population Growth 1963-1974 3. Distribution of National Urban and Rural Population by Province 1969 4. Proportion of Total Zambian Employment in Line of Rail Provinces by Sector, 1968 5. Distribution and Growth of Population by Province 1963-69 and 1969-76 (thousands) 6. Migrant Ratios, 1969 7. Distribution of Working African Male Population by Employment Status 8. Estimated Formal and Informal Sector African Employment by Sex, 1971 and 1976 9. Male Labor Force and Economically Active Population by Province Group, 1969 10. Reported Incomes in Low-Cost and Squatter Housing Areas 11. Distribution of Sales by Purchasing Sectors, 1969 12. Means of Transport to Work by Type of Township, Survey of Lower Income Townships - Kitwe, 1972 13. Percentage Distribution of Dwellings by Type of Landlord, 1969 14. Summary of Characteristics of Housing Stock, Urban Areas, 1969 15. Percentage Distribution of Dwellings by Density of Occupation and Number of Rooms, 1969 16. Site and Service Scheme Dwelling Completions by Municipality, November, 1973 17. Site and Service Schemes, Monthly Charges and Estimated Income Needed to Meet Charges by Type of Scheme and Size of Loan - 4 - 18. Site and Service Schemes: Percentage of Population Unable to Meet Charges by Type of Scheme and Size of Loan 19. Summary of General Rate Fund Finances and Assessed Valuations, Selected Local Government Units, 1972 20. Per Capita Gross Expenditures by Functions, Selected Local Government Units, 1972 21. Existing Site and Service Plots and SNDP Housing Programs-- Townships in non Line-of-Rail Povinces FIGURE Zambia - Local Government Structure MAPS Zambia - Urbnn Development (IBRD 11049R) Zambia - Population Distribution (IBRD 11542) Zambia - Possible Future Spatial Development (IBRD 1099R) Zambia - Transportation Network (IBRD 11509) Zambia - International Routes (IBRD 11510) SUM9ARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1. Over the past decade the Zambian economy has expanded at an average rate of 3.7 percent per annum in real terms (less than 1 percent per capita). The current per capita income is approximately K 400. Excluding the Republic of South Africa,this is the second highest level in sub-saharan Africa. This high average income however masks major income disparities and a highly dualis- tic economy. 2. The modern sector of the economy is dominated by the copper mining industry which,contributes about one-third of G.D.P. and 95 percent of exports. The opening of the mines in the early years of the century was the major impetus to development of the economy. Expatriate workers arrived to manage the mines and administer the country and ancillary activities developed to service the mining sector and the attendant population. These activities were primarily focused on serving this spatially concentrated market. 3. As a result of this extensive use of expatriate labor, incomes in the copper industry and related activities and in administration were high. These activities were overwhelmingly located in the major urban areas of the country. Physical conditions and high transport costs limited agricultural development. During the colonial period restrictions were placed upon migration to urban areas. Following Independence these were relaxed,and at the same time there was a major increase in manufacturing activity,following the break off in relations with traditional suppliers in Rhodesia and South Africa. The result was rapid rural-urban migration. In the 1963-69 period urban areas grew by an average of almost 10 percent per year. This growth rate has now slowed to just over 6 percent. Currently the urban areas contain 35 percent of the population and it is anticipated that by 1980 over 40 per- cent will be urban. 4. The urban areas have been characterized by high levels of wage employment, about 87 percent of males working are classified as employees. WIage levels have been relatively high. In 1972 the average wage of African employees in non-agricultural activities was K 1,034 (US$1,600) per annum. Even in squatter areas median incomes are K 480 - K 600 (US$750-935) per annum and the average household has one working male member. The bulk of the rural population, by contrast, continues in a semi-subsistence agricul- ture with household production at levels of K 200 (US$312) or below. 5. The urban-rural disparities are heightened by the spatial characteris- tics of the country's development. The mining industry is almost entirely concentrated in a single area covering less than one percent of the country's land area, and located in the north center of the country. The other major urban centers are located on the rail line running south to Rhodesia. This rail-line also traverses the principal area of relatively high crop potential in the country. Marketed agricultural production is therefore concentrated also along the line_of_rail. - ii - 6. The result has been almost complete concentration of commercial activity in the three central line-of-rail provinces. These three provinces contain 95 percent of all reported private sector employment and 85 percent of public and private sector employment, while containing only 52 percent of the population. The 5 peripheral provinces have predominantly subsistence economy with paid employment almost entirely dependent upon the public sector. As a consequence of income and employment disparities, persistent net migration has occurred from the peripheral to the line-of-rail provinces, amounting to 282,000 between 1963 and 1969. The income gap between urban and rural areas however appears to be continuing to widen. Regional Development 7. Faced with these disparities between urban and rural incomes, employment opportunities and also the availability of public and private services, the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) has.placed major emphasis since Independence on rural and agricultural development. A succession of planning exercises has been followed by a series of adminis- trative reforms,seeking to make national, provincial and district institu- tions more effective in accomplishing economic and political objectives. Lacking experienced administrators, these initiatives have been only partially successful and planning staff remain heavily concentrated in Lusaka. 8. Future rural-urban migration and the rate of urban population growth will be determined by progress in reducing rural-urban income differentials. The scope for such reduction is dependent upon: (a) The long-term potential of agriculture in Zambia and its likely structure. (b) The choice between emphasis on a commercially oriented agriculture, likely to be relatively concentrated on the better soils near the line-of-rail,or on a direct attempt to raise incomes of those currently engaged in agriculture in more peripheral areas, through agricultural improvement in those areas. 9. The future spatial pattern of Zambia's development will depend in part on the policies adopted with respect to these issues. The existing economic and spatial structure of the Zambian economy appears to offer little scope for promoting development of lagging regions through industrially based urban growth. This implies that urban development in the peripheral provinces will have to be based upon agricultural development. However, the low overall population density of the country and relatively extensive agriculture to which most of it is suited, will mean that towns in these areas will be small and relatively few in number. 10. Human and capital resource constraints demand selectivity in development programs. Given the interdependence of urban and agricultural development in the non-line-of-rail provinces,it is desirable that these - iii - components be selectively combined in areas of high potential on a provincial basis within an overall spatial development strategy. Such a strategy would appear to be most advantageously based on utilization of the major transportation corridors of the country. The immediate new opportunity of this type is provided by the Tanzania-Zambia (TAZARA) railroad and the Great North Road. Given added cross country links,this would provide regional development opportunities in the northeast and east of the country. 11. Such a regionally focussed program,based on an increased emphasis on agriculture,would divert some migration to regional centers such as Kasama and Chipata. However, in the short run, it is likely to have little impact on overall urban growth. Zambia's urban population in 1980 will approach 2.4 million, a figure representing an increase of almost 800,000 over the 1973 level. This implies an annual increment to the urban population of about 110,000 persons, over the remainder of the decade. Urban Needs 12. An increase of this magnitude will create major problems of employ- ment, provision of shelter, public services and planning. A clear and well defined urban program is needed, designed to: (a) Strengthen the development of the country's attenuated urban system through regional programs which utilize resource and transport opportunities. (b) Enable existing and future residents to gain access to housing and other services within the framework of the Government's commitment to the principle of self-help in the housing field. This will include both the provision of sites for new housing at standards and costs which are in line with the ability to pay and, where feasible, improving access to services in existing settlements. (c) Assist in maintaining the growth of employment and promote the development of small-scale Zambian enterprise so as to begin reducing the sharp dualistic nature of the country,both within urban areas and as between urban and rural regions. 13. While the overall increase in urban based formal sector employment over the past decade has been impressive, there is evidence that the rate of growth has been slowing. If labor force growth continues as expected, unemployment will rise unless an increasing proportion of employment is found in "informal" or small-scale activities. Little is currently known about this aspect of the economy. An expanded program of self-help housing will be a major factor in promoting small-scale Zambian enterprise. In addition, existing conditions, e.g., licensing laws and zoning practices, should be examined to determine whether they form an impediment to the development of such activity. - iv - 14. Since Independence, GRZ has placed increased emphasis on the self- help principle in housing provision, and the public housing program has now virtually ceased. While the country therefore has considerable experience in self-help housing programs, the current rate of progress in these programs is inadequate to meet the needs of the growing urban population. Squatter settlements, i.e. unorganized and unserviced self-help efforts, are therefore expanding rapidly. An increased impetus is needed in the near future, in view of the government's strong commitment to self-help housing, if the standard of housing services available to the urban poor is not to decline drastically. Constraints 15. The ability of Zambia to mount a program guided by the above criteria to meet the needs of urban growth will be constrained in a number of ways: (a) Financial. Given the principle of recovery of on-site costs from occupants, there is a clear need to tailor servicing levels to the ability to pay. This will mean, for example, an increased emphasis on communal provision of water, absence of piped sewerage, but with provision for later upgrading. The reduction of flow of central government funds to the municipalities, e.g. phasing out of housing and other grants, will increase the need for generation of local revenue and/or mean a reduction in staffing and services provided. Some reduction in staffing already occurred, hampering the municipalities' effort to meet development needs. (b) Municipal Institutions. A trebling of organized self-help housing construction will require a similar increase in support personnel. The Lusaka Sites and Services project is providing for an increase in training of community development officers and this program will require further extension. At the municipal level, consideration could also be given to the structure of council and the administration with a view to increasing their ability to meet the development needs of the municipalities. (c) Provincial Institutions. Site and service projects have been in progress for some years in the provincial centers, but rates of development have been extremely low because of costs and lack of support personnel. Given the GRZ's expressed policy of decentralization and shortages of manpower, it would appear preferable to locate responsibility for settle- ment development at a subnational level. This capacity to perform these functions does not now exist. 16. There is evidence that measures being taken to reduce the flow of central government funds to municipalities will increase the relative burden borne by lower income groups. It is recommended that a review of municipal - v - finance be undertaken to investigate the possibilities of expanding municipal tax bases, particularly by bringing mining property on to the tax rolls, and means of increasing the progressivity of the local tax structure with respect to incomes. 17. Within this framework, it is recommended that the Government should place emphasis on both the development of regional centers and the acceleration of self-help housing programs in the major urban centers. If urban investments in regional centers are to have developmental impact, it is desirable that they be linked to the overall development strategy for their hinterland. In the longer term, this will be most effectively achieved through the establishment of planning and coordination capacity at sub-national levels,and it is recommended that consideration be given to this need as a part of the overall goal of de- centralizing the administration of the Party and Government. INTRODUCTION 0.1 This report examines the pattern of spatial development in Zambia in order to identify future trends in urban growth. The report analyzes those trends in relation to the goals of the Zambian national development strategy in order to determine the degree of congruency between development patterns and public policies designed to manage them. The historical forces in Zambian development, particularly the concentration of development in urban areas along a major north-south railway, raises questions about the means by which public policies can or should reorient development towards the rural sectors in order to reduce disparities between urban and rural incomes. These questions direct attention to the evolution of development policy and institutional structure, the spatial growth of the economy, the processes of urban and regional growth, and opportunities to improve existing conditions while planning for future development. 0.2 Zambia is already the most urbanized nation in Africa. By 1978, almost 40 percent of the national population will live in urban areas, an increase of one million since 1969. Most of this growth, as indicated in Map IBRD 11049R, is located in eight major urban centers along the line of rail 1/ extending from the Copperbelt in the north through the administrative capital of Lusaka and central agricultural areas to the southern town of Livingstone. The continuing industrial and commercial growth of Ndola, Lusaka and the mining towns of Chingola, Kabwe, Kitwe, Luanshya and Mufulira is the major attraction of continuing migration from rural areas. The locational concen- tration of the modern, industrial sector of the economy along the line of rail, in contrast to the traditional, agricultural sector in rural areas, tends to reinforce the common disparities between the urban and rural sectors. Unlike urban areas in many other African countries, Zambian towns have main- tained high levels of employment and incomes, despite rapid rates of growth. A major problem of development policy, therefore, becomes the gap in urban and rural incomes. 0.3 Faced with this situation, it is not surprising that Zambian auth- orities have oriented the national development strategy towards growth of the rural sector in order to eliminate major differences in real incomes between the urban and rural sectors. This policy thrust was adopted at Independence and is now central to the Second National Development Plan (SNDP) covering the period 1972-1976. This objective, however, has yet to be achieved. Existing patterns of growth have long-term consequences which limit the options open to Zambia both in urban and rural development. 1/ The three provinces lying on the main north-south rail line, i.e., Copperbelt, Central and Southern are referred to in this report as the "line-of-rail" provinces, as distinguished from Eastern, Northern, Luapula, North-western and Western, collectively referred to as the "non line-of-rail" provinces. - 2 - 0.4 A major factor influencing the success of Zambia's development strategy is its institutional structure. The Zambian government, presented in Figure 1, is intended to be decentralized in order to create a 'partici- patory democracy" which promotes "development from below." Since Independence, a succession of planning exercises has been followed by a series of administra- tive reforms, seeking to make national, provincial and district institutions more effective in accomplishing various developmental and political tasks. The present system of eight provinces, each headed by a Cabinet Minister supported by a staff and Provincial Development Committee (PDC) and 44 districts each headed by a District Governor, supported by his staff and a District Development Committee is intended to reflect official views of the need to shape institutions according to policy goals. 0.5 The evolution of development policy and institutional structure remains a central problem for the Government of the Republic of Zambia. Efforts to redefine policy goals and reorganize administrative forms reflect the continuing problem of formulating a development strategy which is both internally consistent and realistic for the future. This urban sector survey seeks to add a spatial dimension to discussion of that strategy. 0.6 The report first places spatial development into the broader context of the national development strategy and institutional framework. Chapter II then reviews the development of the urban sector, with particular attention to employment and incomes. Chapter III examines the prospects for decentraliz- ing industrial activity and urban development to peripheral regions within the context of integrated regional development. Chapter IV presents the principal problems and needs of cities, municipalities, and townships. The report concludes with recommendations for policy decisions and possible future Bank involvement in the Zambian urban sector, including urban-related regional development. 0.7 This report is based on findings of a mission consisting of Messrs. J. English and M. Cohen (Development Economics Department), which visited Zambia in August/September 1973. The mission was assisted by Messrs. W. Doebele and R. Saunders (Consultants) who also participated in the Appraisal Mission for the Lusaka Squatter Upgrading and Site and Services Project. - 3 - CHAPTER I. DEVELOPMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE 1.01 The evolution of development policy and the structure of public institutions in Zambia since Independence in 1964 reflects a continuing dialogue concerning official Zambian views of the relation between development goals and institutions assigned to achieve them. A succession of planning exercises has been followed by a series of administrative reforms seeking to make national, provincial, and district institutions more effective in accomplishing various developmental and political tasks. The major theme throughout this evolution of policy and institutional structure has been a growing emphasis on the rural/ agricultural sector and administrative decentralization to carry out rural development efforts. This emphasis has stemmed from many sources, including advice of high-level aid missions, the imperatives of political consolidation after Independence, and President Kaunda's desire to maintain the rural bases of African traditional society. Despite great publicity and political exposure, this official concern with the rural sector and decentralization has not, however, made significant inroads into rural-urban disparities. Central authorities in Lusaka have not delegated financial control to their provincial and district counterparts, who, therefore, remain dependent on central decision- making and are unable to initiate development programs in their jurisdictions. This situation emphasizes the difficulties in suggesting new policies and development projects affecting spatial development in Zambia. Post-Independence Development Planning 1964-1970: Preparation and Execution of the First National Development Plan 1.02 Many of the premises of development policy in the post-independence period stem from the recommendations of the "Seers Report" of 1964. 1/ That report formed the basis of the Transitional Development Plan of 1965 and preparation for the First National Development Plan (FNDP) of JulY 1966. It emphasized the importance of agriculture and the rural sector in a Zambian development strategy. Relatively little attention was directed towards the urban sector, except to note anticipated migration, urban growth, and the need for a national housing program within a proposed National Housing Authority. Observation of the inequalities between the urban and rural sectors led to recommendations designed to reduce "disparities". 1.03 The most important effort to reorganize public intervention in the rural sector came through a series of administrative reforms starting in 1964. At that time President Kaunda sought to revitalize regional and local develop- ment by appointing Ministers of State as the political heads of each province 1/ Report of the UN/ECA/FAO Economic Survey Mission on the Economic Develop- ment of Zambia, Falcon Press, Ndola, 1964. - 4 - in order to mobilize support for public programs. Resident Secretaries and District Secretaries replaced the colonial Commissioners and District Officers. However, conflicts between political and civil service interests led to and were further exacerbated by the departure of many former British provincial and district administrators. Thus, while the government sought to decentralize its develoDment activities into the rural areas, it lacked sufficient manpower to effectively staff the new administrative system. 1.04 In addition to these changes, President Kaunda also created the Provincial Development Committees (PDC) and District Development Committees (DDC) to bring together public officials and local political notables to discuss the needs of their jurisdictions. Proposals for specific projects and budgetary allocations were presented, first from the DDC to the PDC, and then on to central ministries in Lusaka. The Minister of State and later the Provincial Cabinet Minister chaired the PDC and acted as a filter for all requests from the districts in the province. The PDC and DDC met quarterly to discuss the progress of individual projects and to plan for the next year's budget. This system was used in the preparation of both the FNDP and SNDP. 1.05 In 1968, President Kaunda announced new administrative reforms establishing the position of Provincial Cabinet Minister as the supreme authority in the province, assisted by a junior Minister of State, responsible for political functions. 1/ The Provincial Cabinet Ministers and District Governors were supported by civil service staffs head by a Permanent Secretary and District Secretary respectively. While numerous problems of coordination and financial control developed with this complicated decentralized system of executive officers and development committees, the system did represent one of the first attempts in post-independence Africa to establish a structurally decentralized administration. 1970-1974: The Second National Development Plan and the One-Party State 1.06 At the same time that the above institutional changes were being made, the FNDP also allocated substantial financial resources to the rural sector. However, the review of FNDP performance contained in the SNTP noted that some 69 percent of all government capital investment was envisaged to be spent in the three line of-rail provinces. In fact these three provinces, containing only 50 percent of the country's population, received some 82 per- cent of total capital expenditures. 1.07 Despite FNDP intentions, observers agree that the agricultural sector experienced a relative decline during this period, in contrast to the growth of urban and industrial activities. Production of agricultural goods fell in some areas leading to increased import of foodstuffs. Efforts to re-organize the rural sector the National Agricultural Marketing Board (Namboard) and various co-operative experiments did not significantly improve the productivity of what was publicly termed a top priority sector. 1/ K. D. Kaunda, Zambia's Guidelines for the Next Decade, Speech to the National Council of UNIP, Mulungushi, November 9, 1968. -5- 1.08 SNDP proposals increased the emphasis on development of the rural sector and agriculture. Great attention was focused on the disparities between provinces and the continuing process of urban growth. Each province was given an investment progra;:i for the plan period of 1972-76. In addition, the plan proposed the creation of Intensive Development Zones (IDZ) in which to concentrate public investment in rural areas. The IDZ's, directed by the Nlinistry of Rural Developmetnt, were intended to increase rural productivity by mounting new programs within a carefully selected limited area. The SNDP notes "development at the grass roots through the Intensive Developuient Zones will iaark otie of tire miiost funda:.mental differences between tisis Plan and the First National Development Plan". 1/ The IDZ's were also supposed to be accorLpanied by the proposed creation of some 25,000 Village Productivity Committees and 1,500 Ward Development Committees, intended to be "the centres of initiative, planning, and implementation of the local needs". 2/ 1.09 By 1974 however, it was clear that the IDZ program was not achieving the desired rate of progress. Execution quickly became overcentralized and overplanned. Excessive emphasis on central planning coupled with a lack of personnel equipped for such work resulted in efforts in the first two years being confined to three provinces. The dispersal of responsibility and planning staff among central ministries contributed to delays. As a result the hoped for grass roots development effort failed to materialize. The IDZ program has subsequently been abandoned and Government has embarked upon a Rural Reconstruc- tion Program (RRP). This countrywide program is primarily aimed at creating opportunities for rural youth and is organized under the Zambian National Service and consequently comes under the Ministry of Defense. One Rural Re- construction Center (RRC) is planned for each district and it is envisaged that these centers will cater to about 800 trainees. Sites are selected through the District Development Committee with the District Secretary consulting the rural councils and chiefs. This approach suggests that the effort to generate grass roots initiative, planning and development is being played down, at least for the immediate future. 1.10 In addition to the promulgation of the SNDP in 1972, Zambia also adopted a new constitution creating a single-party state. While the govern- ment is legally placed under the control of the Central Committee of UNIP and its various sectoral supervisory committees, it is unclear whether public sector activities will be materially affected by the new political structure at the national level. However, at the provincial and district level, party officials who had had only interrmiittent and not very consequential impact on development policy discussions are now expected to seek a larger role. The parallel structure of UNIP at the village, town, municipal, district and provincial levels further complicates existing governmental organizatioln. 1/ SNDP, p. 64. 2/ Ibid. - 6 - 1.11 By late 1973, a re-examination of the decentralized administrative system was underway, in part stimulated by the May 1972 Report of the Working Party Appointed to Review the System of Decentralized Administration, known as the "Simmance Report". This Report had clearly described the multiple inefficiencies of the existing system, noting: "Since Independence, the provincial administration has been seriously run down in quality and numbers. It lacks the authority to supervise and coordinate the activities of government in the field". 1/ "Executive authority remains firmly at the centre". Concentration of executive direction in Lusaka has had "several debilitating effects": (i) Efficiency in execution suffers and accountability (in the widest sense) for success or failure cannot be determined. Who can be adjudged responsible along the attenuated chain of command from central to local level? Everyone blames someone else, usually his superior. (ii) Field officers lose the will and the capacity to make decisions and become fit only for referring matters to higher authority. Centralization becomes a powerful stccessor to colonialism in sqppressinz individual initiative. (iii) Sectoral ministries neglect their policy-making duties because they are too busy trying to manage by remote control. As a result, both policy and management are poor. 2/ 1.12 While noting that "national policy must continue to be decided at the centre", the authors of the report concluded that more budgetary authority should be delegated to the provincial level. They noted that in 1968, President Kaunda decided that half of the ministries (8 of 16) should go to the provincial level. By December 1969, however, the 8 in Lusaka had increased to 12. By the end of 1971, the original 16 had become 24, with 16 in Lusaka and 8 in the provinces. Decentralization had been thwarted by a countervailing process of central expansion. 1.13 This process was particularly evident in the case of the Provincial and District Development Committees. The Cormmittees had never been given statutory authority, but were created by administrative instruction in 1965 as part of the implementing machinery for the Transitional Development Plan and later the FNDP. By 1972, the Simmance Report concludes: 1/ Cabinet Office, Report of the Working Party Appointed to Review the System of Decentralized Administration (Lusaka: May 1972), p 3. 2/ Ibid. p 28. - 7- With all that can be said on their behalf, PUC's are rapidly becoming the antithesis of the resolute agents of coordinated development they were originally intended to become. The Government has not yet provided them with clear guidelines or put the tools of development firmly in their hands. Dissatisfaction and disillusion over their achievement is now rife. The conmon judgment among officials is that they have failed. With the impulse of the SNDP preparation now behind them, there is a danger that the pace of their degeneration will increase. 1/ Sadly, the authors remark: We have found no example of a District Development Committee decision because there is absolutely nothing that the District Development Committee is empowered to decide. 2/ 1.14 If decentralization were to achieve its objective, central control would have to be loosened and the system simplified by a reduction of structures. The basic critique of the Report appears valid and deserves continuing consideration: Even though the Government has chosen rural develop- ment as a priority area and has sought to shape public institutions around that policy goal, the present institutional structure does not permit either effective planning or project implementation at the provincial or district level. This problem also has major implications from the urban development point of view. An integral part of the growth of the regional urban centers is an upgrading of their role within the national urban system. This will happen slowly as the agricultural bases of the regions expand, and they take on increasing wholesaling, co-ordinating rather than service center functions. This upgrading of role would be given a considerable impetus if a greater degree of decision making power were transferred to the provinces, i.e., to the provincial capitals. The Planning Process at the National Level 1.15 The expansion of provincial and district administrative structures has been accompanied in Lusaka by the development of complicated national planning machinery. The growing governmental role in the economy after the 1968 Mulungushi Reform 3/ and the 1969 Mfatero Reforms has resulted in the growthi of the M*linistry of Development Planning and National Guidance, recently 1/ Ibid., p90. 2/ Ibid., p91. 3/ For further discussion of the 1968 Mulungushi Reform, see: After M4ulungushi: The Economics of Zambia Humanism, Bastiaan de Gaay Fortman, ed., (Nairobi, East Africa Publishing l1ouse, 1969). - 8 - coinbined witli the llinistry of Finance after the November 1973 elections. The Development Planning Division (DPD) of the Ministry is the central planninig office of the government, with some nine major planning and coordination functions. 1/ Sectoral planning is supposed to occur in the various executive ministries, but in fact only the Ministries of Education and Rural Develop- ment have planning units at this time. Sectoral plans are intended to be coordinated by the Development Planning Division. 1.16 In procedural terms, proposals come from DDC's and PDC's to the National Development Committee (NADEC) of the Cabinet which, with the advice of the DPD, proposes a national plan which includes various sectoral components, including the activity of parastatals, developed by executive ministries. Sectoral proposals have been reviewed within subsections of the DPD before their inclusion in the plan. The Plan is then approved by the National Assembly. Unlike the FNDP, the SNDP calls for annual reviews of performance through a process of "continuous planning". This frequent reevaluation is particularly necessary in view of Zambia's financial un- certainties in the face of changing world copper prices and difficulties with Rhodesia since UDI in 1965 and the 1973 border closing to the south. 1.17 Despite the intended breadth of the planning machinery there is some question about the quantity and quality of work actually produced. The DPD has the greatest concentration of trained economists in the country, yet its influence is apparently not felt at all levels of administration. Within the DPD there are few economists in its Regional Planning Unit and none at the provincial level, leading the Sinimance Report to describe the situation as the "antithesis of decentralization: it confines professional economic planning to the centre and relegates to amateurs the grass roots level". 2/ Thus frequent reassignment of ministerial portfolios, centralization of trained manpower and overlapping responsibilities have hindered planning at both the national and regional levels. This appraisal is echoed by a January 1973 document of the Ministry of Development Planning and National Guidance: Zambia has a rather sophisticated planning machinery but its functioning at the sectoral and regional levels has been seriously incapacitated because of lack of qualified personnel. At the regional level, inadequate coordination of the various development and planning bodies seems to be the main problem. 3/ 1.18 Given the interrelationships between urban and agricultural development which have been emuphasized in other sections of this report, it is clear that coordination of development and planning bodies, particularly at the Provincial level will be essential, if viable regional development programs are to be mounted. 1/ See SNDP pp 329-330, for a complete list of the functions of the Develop- ment Planning Division. 2/ Ibid., pp 96-97. 50 of 72 economists in tile civil service are in the DPD. 3/ Ministry of Development Planning ands National (uidance, 1972 Development Budget: Progress of Implerientation, p. /dJ. - 9 - The Institutional Framework for Urban and Regional Development Urban Development Institutions 1.19 In addition to the creation of machinery for national planning and provincial/district administration, during the first decade of the Zambian independence government also established national and local councils. Zambian institutions were established to follow the British tradition of local self- government quite closely. Local councils were elected in all jurisdictions, with cities also electing mayors through the Minister of Local Government and Housing. These local institutions were responsible for tax collection and provision of services, including water, sewerage, refuse collection, con- struction and maintenance of roads, street lighting, markets, parks and playing fields, libraries, and cemeteries. The councils are also responsible for fire prevention services, preventive health services, town planning, and traffic control. In addition, the councils are the major landlords in the country. Police and education are financed and administered directly by central ministries in Lusaka. 1.20 Derived from the colonial municipal institutions, the classification of Zambian urban centers into three cities, 1/ five municipalities, 2/ and eleven townships in the Local Government Act of 1965 set the framework in which urban development was to occur. In comparison to municipal government in many other African states, Zambian urban institutions are considerably more viable and effective in providing public services, especially housing, to urban residents. The organization of municipal government is quite uniform among the eight major urban jurisdictions. Although the councils are well-established and provide a wide range of services, their power is limited by two factors: (1) the existence of mining townships which operate as the relevant jurisdiction for a large proportion of the population of the Copperbelt towns and Kabwe, and (2) increasing central control from Lusaka. The effects of these facts of life are discussed in Chapter 4 in some detail. 1.21 Following the Local Government Act of 1965, all affairs of local jurisdictions in Zambia are under the control of the Ministry of Local Government and Housing. While the portfolio of this Ministry shifted several times during the 1960s, it now exists as a separate entity with extensive authority to determine the physical, economic and social development patterns of Zambian towns. Its Departments of Provincial and Local Government, Housing, and Town and Country Planning oversee all decisions taken by city, municipal, township, and rural councils. All budgetary allocations, tax rates, capital expenditures, and personnel decisions must be referred to Lusaka for approval. This pattern of central control has been accentuated since the national budget deficits of 1971-72. It raises further questions about official intentions to decentralize government. 1/ Lusaka, Kitwe and Ndola. 2/ Chingola, Mufulira, Luanshya, Kabwe and Livingstone. - 10 - 1.22 This pattern of central control is also reflected in the role and functions of the National Housing Authority, created in 1971. Continuing a pattern established by its predecessor, the Zambia Housing Board, the Authoritv has a strong veto power over local authorities' decisions--within limits set to formulate and implement urban development policy. Placed under the authority of the Minister of Local Government and Housing, NHA has been given a wide range of functions which permits intervention in local affairs as well as a major role in advising on national policies for housing and urban development. These functions include preparation of urban development plans for all types of urban centers, improvement of squatter areas, housing project management, estimation of national housing needs, and several other housing responsibilities. While a recent creation, the NHA has rapidly become the focus for the best technical expertise for analysis of urban questions in the country. Its largely expatriate staff should be able to train Zambians, while performing a technical assistance function throughout the country. Regional Development Institutions 1.23 The major institutions responsible for regional planning are the Regional Planning Unit in the Development Planning Division, Ministry of Planning and Finance, and the Department of Town and Country Planning in the Ministry of Housing and Local Government. The Regional Planning Unit coordinates all economic planning at the provincial level, linking the provincial Dlans with the SNDP. The Department of Town and Country Planning is divided into the Northern and Southern Planning Authorities, and is assisted by a Research Division. It is charged, by the Town and Country Planning Act of 1962, to prepare physical development plans for all jurisdictions, including urban areas and regions. In fact, plans for towns have been subcontracted out to three major private consultants, Doxiadis Associates, the African Studies Consulting Organization (ASCO), and the National Housing Authority. The SNDP provides for the creation of regional planning units at the provincial level, but the shortage of trained manpower, already apparent in the lack of pro- ductivity in existing institutions, is delaying formation of these units. Decentralization for Urban and Regional Development 1.24 Despite public intentions to decentralize government, Zambian authorities have established an institutional framework which has myriad structures at the provincial/district and city/municipal levels, but little formal decision-making authority. This gap between intentions and actual performance not only raises false expectations about the government's local development efforts, but also results in a lack of planning and poor execution of development projects. Delayed release of funds by central authorities for capital expenditures causes "excessive strains on the departments' adminis- trative ability to execute and supervise plan implementation properly." 1/ 1/ 1972 Development Budget: Progress of Implementation, Ministry of Development Planning and National Guidance, January 1973, p. 36. - 11 - If national financial uncertainties in Zambia must be accepted as a fact of public life, it should nevertheless still be possible to permit a greater share of responsibility for local planning and financial management, 1/ to devolve to provincial, district, city and municipal jurisdictions. 1.25 The link between policy and institutional structure has been recognized, as reflected in the President's speech to the National Council of UNIP in June 1975, where it was announced that the Government intended to transfer responsibility for services such as clinics, dispensaries, health centers, and primary schools to local authorities. This trend is consistent with the Government's objectives for greater decentralization and should, therefore, be continued in the future. This would also apply to the regional level where provincial wide planning and project execution should occur. The administra- tive system is basically sound, but it will require a continued process of simplification and redefinition of responsibility if it is to be a useful tool for local development in both rural and urban areas. 1/ Report of-the jw i Part:y Appointed to Review the System of Decentralized-~Acdmf-i!nvstration, -passim. - 12 - CHAPTER 2 URBANIZATION AND SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT IN ZAMBIA Introduction 2.01 The current urban system and the structure of urban areas in Zambia reflects the developmental history of the country over the past 75 years. Prior to the colonization of central Africa by European powers, the area which is now Zambia was sparsely settled by a large number of tribal groups living in a subsistence economy. No large scale trading system for local produce or its attendant urban places existed, as in West Africa, and European interest was centered on the potential for mineral development. Structure of the Economy 2.02 The Zambian economy, up to Independence in 1964, operated as a part of the larger economy of Southern Africa. Mining development was carried out almost exclusively by companies based in South Africa. Most equipment and supplies came from the south because the specialized equipment needed by the mines was provided by companies whose principal market was the larger mining industry of South Africa. Manufacturing activity, therefore, developed slowly in Zambia. In 1947 a Census of Industrial Production recorded 74 manufacturing establishments, 22 of which were in metal engineering. However, wood products, based on the forests of the mid-Zambesi Valley, accounted for 30 percent of net output and 50 percent of employment. The continued growth of copper production was accompanied by an expansion of locally based activities to service the mining population. By 1965 almost 40 percent of gross domestic product was derived from mining (including smelting and refining) and only about 10 percent from agriculture (see Table 1). The remaining 50 percent of domestic product was derived from the urban based secondary and tertiary activities. Since 1965, growth of the mining industry has been relatively slower than that of the economy as a whole, such that in 1974 it contributed just under 25 percent of G.D.P. 1/ Agriculture's share appears to have fallen slightly and the major increases occurred in manufacturing, services, finance and real estate. 2.03 Because of the subsistence nature of the indigenous agriculture, the market for goods and services which developed was heavily oriented towards the demands of the expatriate groups in the mining industry and administrative services. Private sector services and manufacturing which developed were primarily oriented towards assembling or servicing imported manufactured goods and supplying general business or consumer services. 2/ 1/ This decline, however, is partly a result of the Mlufulira mine disaster in 1969 which reduced output by 25 percent. 2/ See Annex II. - 13 - Locational Factors in Development 2.04 The result of this structure is that the bulk of non-mining activity in the economy is highly oriented towards its market and that these markets are highly localized. This tendency to localization is accentuated by the fact that the major copper ore bodies are located in a relatively small area on the Zairian border. Development of these deposits was preceded by that of the lead/zinc deposits about 100 miles to the south. The rail line linking these mining areas to southern Africa also traversed the length of one of the country's major areas of agricultural potential, in the Central aud Southern Provinces. The bulk of the commercial agricultural output, contributed by about 600 expatriate-operated farms and an equal number of Zambian enterprises, are located along this rail line. 2.05 Agricultural development in the country generally was hindered by poor environmental and economic conditions. The distance to major external markets either in Southern Africa or in Europe resulted in high transporta- tion costs. Low rainfall, infertile or poorly structured soils and tsetse infestation over wide areas of the country have greatly reduced productive potential. Agriculture has essentially been limited to those goods which can be produced competitively for the local market against outside supplies. Areas away from the line-of-rail were particularly disadvantaged and agri- culture has remained at a more or less subsistence level. Agricultural markets and service centers have therefore not developed on any scale. Urban Growth 2.06 Full censuses were not taken before 1963, so that accurate historic data are not available. 1/ However, available data do suggest three main phases of growth since World War II. The decade 1945-55, was a period of rapid expansion of copper production and of renewed British interest in colonial settlement. The European population of the major towns more than trebled and recorded African employment in these towns doubled. For the remainder of the period under Federation, i.e., to 1963, urban growth was slowed, partly by reduced growth in copper output as well as Federal policies which encouraged growth in manufacturing in Rhodesia rather than Zambia. This effect appears to have been least marked in Lusaka, which continued to grow. Following Independence in 1964 and disrupted relations with Rhodesia after UDI in 1965, manufacturing output and employment grew rapidly in Zambia. Restrictions on movement of females to towns were also removed at this time. Urban populations grew rapidly at almost 10 nercent per annum between 1963 and 1969. The result was a virtual doubling of the urban popula- tion and, with the inability of existing housing programs to cope with this growth, a considerable increase in squaeter settlements occurred to which the government attempted to respond by expanding programs for self-help housing. 1/ See Annex I. - 14 - 2.07 The rate of urban growth has fallen since the 1963-69 period. The 1974 Sample Census estimates that the rate of growth of the major towns since 1969 has averaged 6.4 percent (see Table 2). This rate is, however, slightly below that projected in the SNDP which forecast an urban population of 2.1 million in 1978 or almost 40 percent of the expected total population of 5.3 million. However, it implies an average annual increase of about 110,000 persons in the urban population or approximately 17,000 households. Such growth represents a very dramatic change in the structure of society over the 15 year period following 1963, when only about 19 percent of the population was housed in the urban areas. Urban Concentration 2.08 This general form of development had important consequences for the present urban sector in Zambia. The heavy concentration of activity in the mining sector and its localization in the Copperbelt area, together with the limited development of agriculture, has resulted in a marked concentration of the urban population of the country in 1969, 90 percent being in Central and Copperbelt Provinces (see Table 3). A further six percent was located in Southern Province and only four percent in the five non line-of-rail provinces. As a result, Copperbelt Province is over 90 percent urbanized and Central Province almost 50 percent. In Southern Province there was about 15 percent of the population in urban places, but in the non line-of-rail provinces this proportion was below three percent. 2.09 The urban population is not only concentrated by region but also by place. In 1969, 8 places, the 3 cities and 5 municipalities, contained 93 percent of the total urban population. Five of these centers are in Copperbelt Province, 2 in Central Province and one in Southern Province (see Map IBRD 11049R). These eight centers now contain approximately 33 percent of the nation's population. This is projected to rise to 40 percent by 1980 and 50 percent by the end of the century. The Urban System 2.10 The urban system is not characterized by the dominance in terms of population of any one center. Lusaka, the capital is the largest city with an estimated population in 1974 of 301,000. The second largest city Kitwe had a population of 292,000. However, the Copperbelt forms a single urban region wi.-th a population of 970,000 and is the dominant economic center in the country. The system as a whole is primate in that there are no intermediate regional centers of any size, except Livingstone. 1/ The rural towns are essentially administrative and service outposts of the central core of the economy. 1/ The contrast, in distribution of the population by size of place, between Zambia and Malaysia, is interesting (see Annex Table 1.5 (a)). Malaysia has a similar per capita G.D.P. to Zambia but Is oriented more toward export-agriculture. - 15 - 2.11 The relative growth of manufacturing and service activity compared to mining is reflected in differing growth rates of urban centers, particu- larly since 1969. The growth rates of the copperbelt mining towns have declined to between 4.5 to 5 percent per year. Lusaka, Ndola and Kabwe, more heavily oriented towards manufacturing,commerce and services, continue to show growth rates in excess of 7.5 percent. Thus between 1963 and 1974 the share of Lusaka, Ndola and Kabwe in the total population of municipalities rose from 37 percent to 48 percent,while that of the other copperbelt towns fell from 58 to 48 percent. The Concentration of Economic Activity 2.12 In terras of contribution to Gross Domestic Project, the line-of-rail has become the locus of at least 85 percent of the economic activity of the country, although the three provinces contain only 52 percent of the national population. This geographic concentration of activity is well illustrated by the distribution of reported wage employment in 1960,which is a reasonable measure of "formal sector" activities. Table 4 shows the proportion of private sector employment by sector located in the three line-of-rail pro- vinces and a similar breakdown for public sector employment by organizational type. Almost 95 percent of all private sector employment is located in three provinces, 85 percent of it in Central and Copperbelt Provinces alone. Almost 100 percent of all mining and private transportation employment is located there, as well as 97 percent of manufacturing employment. Public employment is less markedly concentrated, but 65 percent of the total is in three pro- vinces. Local Government employment is closely related to population but employment in public corporations shows a somewhat similar distribution to the private sector, with 92 percent on the line-of-rail. 2.13 The spatial dualism of the economy is illustrated by the relative importance of formal and informal sector activities. An indication of this can be obtained by comparing employment reported by employment surveys with numbers reported as being economically active by the population census. Such a comparison indicates that in the 1963-69 period 40 percent of the economical- ly active were employed by the formal sector. This proportion was as high as 67 percent in the Copperbelt and 47 percent in the Central Province. In the non line-of-rail provinces, formal sector employment accounted only for about 20 percent of activity and, of that proportion, over 70 percent was contri- buted by the public sector, compared to less than 50 percent on the line-of- rail. Off the line-of-rail, the economy is therefore predominantly oriented towards subsistence, with a small formal sector servicing the population of the area, comprising both private and public components. Migration 2.14 Given the localization of urban centers, the rural-urban popula- tion shifts have had major interregional implications. Between 1963 and 1969 there was an estimated net migration of 282,000 to the line-of-rail - 16 - provinces, whose proportion of total population rose from 42 to 49 percent (see Table 5). The 1974 Sample Census of Population indicated that a further net movement of about 160,000 has occurred between 1969 and 1974. No detailed study of migration has been carried out in Zambia. Data from the 1969 Census however do give an indication of the extent of inter-provincial movement and of the major flows, on the basis of individuals place of birth and current residence. 1/ Table 6 indicates that the provinces can be divided into three groups: Central and Copperbelt with a heavy excess of in-migrants over out- migrants (3:1 and 6:1 respectively); Southern, with approximate equality between in-migrants and out-migrants; and the non line-of-rail provinces, with excesses of out-migrants of 3:1 to 10:1. Inter-provincial mobility appears to be high. For example, almost 15 percent of the males born in Copperbelt Province were living in another province in 1969. This proportion was as high as 30 percent for the Eastern Province. 2.15 Despite net out-migration from Southern Province in the 1960's, the overall balance between inflows and outflows before 1969 and the relatively balanced male-female ratios are of interest. The proportion of the male labor force at work in the Province is approximately equal to that in Central and Copperbelt Provinces, and greatly above that in the non line-of-rail provinces. The province is, however, considerably oriented towards agriculture with ap- proximately 26 percent of those exported in wage employment being in that sector, compared to one percent and 11 percent in Copperbelt and Central Pro- vinces respectively. Since agricultural wage levels have typically been about one-half those in other sectors, this implies a lower average wage level in Southern Province. Despite the ease of access to Central and Copperbelt Provinces and the apparent income differential, migration movement was slight prior to 1963 and proportionately, out-migration from the Province prior to 1969 was the same as that for Central and Copperbelt. Employment 2.16 These migration processes were fueled primarily by a rapid increase in employment opportunities in the cities. African employment in the urban based formal sector is estimated to have risen from 163,000 to 300,000 between 1961 and 1972,or by approximately 85 percent. 2/ This is an annual rate of just under six percent per annum, which is somewhat below the rate of growth of the urban male population of about seven percent. At the same time, wage employment in agriculture (as reported in official employment surveys) fell by some 12 percent. Numerically, all new wage employment opportunities were in the urban areas. Despite the rapid growth in labor force, unemployment rates in the urban areas have remained relatively low. 3/ Available data suggest that somewhat less than 10 percent of males over 14 are unemployed, with lower rates for heads of households. However, the rate of growth of formal sector employment has slowed somewhat since 1969, and these low un- employment levels may be increasing. 1/ See Annex I. 2/ See Annex I. 3/ Ibid. - 17 - 2.17 Urban employment is heavily oriented towards wage employment. Table 7 shows that of those reported as working in urban centers in 1969, 87 percent were employees and only 7.8 percent self-employed. This underlines the modern sector nature of the economy of the urban areas. The implication of the low- level of self-employment for future development is not entirely clear. Scope may exist for considerable increases in informal sector activity. On the other hand, the pervasiveness of modern sector activity may limit potential oppor- tunities for small-scale entrepreneurs to become established. 1/ 2.18 Participation by women in the labor force is low. The 1969 census indicated that in the rural areas almost 30 percent of women over 14 con- sidered themselves to be in the labor force, i.e., were working or seeking work. The proportion in urban areas was, however, only 25 percent. However, it is anticipated in the SNDP that the urban participation will rise dramati- cally. As a result the projected growth of the urban female labor force is estimated at 12.7 percent per annum, compared to six percent for males. 2/ 2.19 The SNDP anticipated an increase of 100,000 in total wage employment over the period of the Plan. If this occurs, it is likely that African urban wage employment will rise from 277,000 in 1971 to 361,000 in 1976, or by 5.4 percent per annum. This clearly implies, if the female labor force increases at the rate expected, that overall the rate of employment in the informal sector will have to increase at a more rapid rate if overall employment rates are to be maintained. If paid employment in the formal sector expands at the expected rate, male employment may grow at about five percent in the formal sector and 12.5 percent in the informal sector. The corresponding figures for females would be 9.1 percent and 16.8 percent (see Table 8). However, if as appears likely the SNDP formal sector employment targets are not met, the outcome will depend on what happens to rural-urban migration and labor-force participation. Preliminary results from a tracer study of secondary school leavers indicate that these school leavers migrated within the first year following their schooling,broadly in a fashion consistent with the relative availability of employment opportunities. Eighty percent of those from the rural provinces had moved elsewhere within one year. Since the probability of obtaining employment in the major urban centers is much higher, it is not clear to what extent a reduction in the probability of obtaining employment will result in a fall in rural-urban migration,especially if the urban-rural wage gap continues to widen. If migration continues then unemploy- ment will rise and there will be increasing pressure on the informal sector to absorb a greater share of the labor force. 1/ A current study by the Development Planning Unit of London University on the process of absorption of migrants in Lusaka is probing into questions related to this problem. 2/ See Annex I. - 18 - 2.20 As noted in para 2.16,little is currently known about informal sector employment in Zambian cities. Increased opportunities for small business might be stimulated in a number of ways. The self-help housing program itself will act as a considerable stimulus to small-scale contract- ing, materials and furnishing supplies. A number of current restrictions, e.g., on use of dwellings for business purposes, and licensing laws appear likely to inhibit the development of small business. A study of the struc- ture and needs of small Zambian business (including hawkers) in urban areas would appear to be a matter of some urgency to guide future policy in this field. Consideration might be given to a program of assistance to small business in urban areas. 2.21 In contrast, in the rural areas employment rates are very low. In the five non line-of-rail provinces, the proportion of those reported in "formal" employment among all those indicated as working was below 25 percent in 1969, compared to a national average of 40 percent. 1/ This in fact under- stated the differential since the proportion of the labor force reported as working in the census was lower in the non line-of-rail provinces, partly because of seasonal fluctuations in agricultural activity. The number of males reported as in the labor force in the line-of-rail provinces was 119 percent of the number in the 20-59 age group, compared to 96 percent in the non line-of-rail provinces. Table 9 also shows that 84 percent of those in the labor force in the line-of-rail provinces were working at the time of the census, compared to only 60 percent off the line-of-rail. In addition, migra- tion has resulted in severe imbalances in male-temale ratios, especially in the 20-34 age groups. 2/ For example, in Eastern Province there are only 61 males per 100 females in the 25-34 age group. Such distortions result in increased dependency ratios, i.e., a greater total number of persons to be supported per person of working age. Incomes 2.22 In the absence of comprehensive surveys, information on income levels in Zambian urban areas is based on partial surveys. Conclusions drawn from such sources must be regarded as somewhat tentative. Recent surveys in low-cost housing and squatter areas in Lusaka and Kitwe,carried out in 1972 and 1973,suggest median household incomes of K 50 - K 60 per month (see Table 10). The Household Budget Survey of 1966-68 in African Housing Areas indicated average cash incomes of about K 60 per month. The two samples are not strictly comparable because some of those covered in the earlier survey may have moved to other housing, but since consumer prices have increased about 30 percent since 1967, this may indicate some decline in real incomes among the African population over this period. 1/ See Annex I. 2/ See Annex I. - 19 - 2.23 Analysis of data from a survey of low-cost housing areas in Kitwe shows that on average each household contains 1.03 males in employment. 1/ Iedian per capita incomes for the different types of housing areas ranged from K 8.6 ($13.5) per month in squatter housing to K 15.0 ($23.5) in mine housing. Less than one percent of households had incormies below K 10 ($15.5) per month. Studies of squatter areas in Lusaka showed similar median incomes, but about seven percent of households with very low incomes. Average cash earnings of all workers in non-agricultural activities in 1972 were reported as K 1375 ($2140) per year and those of Africans, K1040 ($1620). 2/ 2.24 In contrast, rural incomes are very low. Studies have indicated that at least 50 percent of "cultivator" households make virtually no cash sales of farm produce, but produce only for subsistence purposes. Their cash income from non-farm sources is typically low, depending upon opportuni- ties. However, detail is not available on the composition of these house- holds, e.g. how many are headed by women whose husbands are absent and who may remit funds. A recent study of cultivators in the Eastern Province, where rural income levels may be slightly above the national average, indicated a weighted mean annual household income of K 195 ($290). Home consumption of farm products amounted to K 103 ($160) of this, cash income from sales of farm produce was K 35 ($55) and the remainder cash income from employment or business. The distribution of incomes among these households was markedly skewed, however, with only about 15 percent having above average incomes. Two-thirds of the sample had only marginal sales of agricultural produce, with cash incomes of K 30-40 ($46-62) and their average incomes amounting to less than K 150 ($230). These income estimates do not, however, take into account the value of housing services consumed. Summary 2.25 The nature of economic development which has occurred in Zambia during this century has resulted in a highly dualistic economy. Modern sector activity is highly concentrated in a few urban places which themselves are concentrated in a small section of the country. These urban areas have expanded rapidly, particularly since Independence. At the same time, agricultural production and rural development have stagnated. This urban growth has been accompanied by a rapid growth of employment opportunities. By general African standards, incomes and rates of employment are high. Median incomes of those in urban squatter settlements appear to be similar to those in the upper quartile in rural areas and thus continued rapid rural-urban migration may be expected. However, it does appear likely that, if female participation in the labor force rises rapidly, opportunities for male wage employment will grow at a rate somewhat below that of the labor force. As a result, employment in the informal sector will have to expand more rapidly in order to maintain current employment levels. This relative increase in informal sector employment may create downward pressure on urban incomes, i.e., increasing the proportion of those in the lower income groups. 1/ See Annex I. 2/ C. S. 0. .Monthly Digest of Statistics, June 1973. - 20 - CHAPTER 3 PROSPECTS FOR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT The Problem 3.01 Since Independence the Government has maintained a policy aimed at increasing economic opportunities and improving public services in rural areas to alleviate "existing imbalances between rural and urban areas in terms of economic differences and social inequity". 1/ Progress, however, has been mixed. 2/ From the perspective of this report the major problems are (1) whether in the near future urban based developments can assist to a significant degree in Zambia's regional development effort, (2) the type of urban system which is likely to evolve in the country and (3) in light of the above, what urban/regional development strategy should be adopted in the near future. 3.02 Chapter 2 briefly outlined the impact of the location of natural resources, climate, topography and external relationships on the pattern of early settlement and communications links in Zambia. The concentration of economic activity and dualistic structure which resulted was indicated. Spatial structures once established tend to be long lived. The extent to which the degree of urban concentration which is developing in Zambia can be forestalled, if that is desired, depends upon a number of factors: (a) the structure of the economy, determining the possibility of decentralizing activity from major existing centers; (b) size of the country's population density, which determines the relative number and size of urban centers which may develop; (c) communications; and (d) institutional structures. This chapter will examine these factors, suggest the form of the future Zambian urban system and initial opportunities for urban and regional development. The Structure of Manufacturing 3.03 The regional development policy frequently adopted by developed countries has been to attempt to disperse economic activities from the major metropolitan areas to disadvantaged regions. This has primarily been based on dispersal of manufacturing activities. The manufacturing sector in the Zambian economy currently comprises a range of engineering and chemical sub-sectors producing inputs for the mining, construction and service sectors, and con- sumer goods industries assembling products for final sale. Sales within the manufacturing sector are limited (see Table 11), i.e., little of the output is used as input by other manufacturing enterprises. Mfost of the enterprises rely heavily on imported components or materials for assembly or processing. These activities are, therefore, strongly market oriented and since the market 1/ Second National Development Plan, p. 301. 2/ For a review of the results of the First Plan, see SNDP, pp. 285-301. - 21 - is highly concentrated, the incentive for locating in the major centers is high. This trend is enhanced in activities such as engineering where much of the output comprises production of small numbers of specially designed goods, e.g. steel structures, where easy access between producer and customer is essential. The localization of markets also combines in a vicious circle with the localization of business and personal services, further enhancing the relative advantage of existing centers. Scope for Decentralization of Manufacturing 3.04 Following Independence and particularly the Rhodesian UDI, competition from Rhodesian and South African industry was reduced and a rapid expansion of manufacturing industry occurred. The industrial groups expanding most rapidly were textiles, clothing and footwear, chemicals and rubber products and the metal industries. A 1969 survey reported a total of 532 manufacturing estab- lishments, 1/ while value added in manufacturing in that year was estimated at $125 million. The scale of operation was low, particularly in sectors other than food, beverages and tobacco, which comprised 16 percent of estab- lishments and 50 percent of value added. It may, therefore, be expected that much of the expansion taking place in currently existing activities will be by expansion of present plants rather than by establishment of new plants or enterprises. This clearly mitigates against any major degree of diversion of growth away from existing centers. Also, many of the post-independence enterprises have been established by expatriates whose business links are entirely within existing centers and they would, therefore, be extremely reluctant to move any distance away from these centers. There is no potential reservoir of entrepreneurial talent in the smaller regional centers with the technical skills and business connections necessary to establish such enterprises. 3.05 The major potential for establishment of manufacturing in the re- gional centers appears to rest with new activities of a relatively large scale, probably either owned by foreign corporations or parastatal bodies. This potential, however, appears to be limited. The Ministry of Planning and Finance has initiated an inter-sectoral study to determine relative devel- opment potential and recommend appropriate investment incentives. This will provide a much clearer view than currently exists of the overall prospects for expansion of manufacturing. The severe limitations on industrial develop- ment away from the Copperbelt and Lusaka are illustrated by the results of the Southern Province Planning Study. 2/ The study (carried out in 1967/70) included an investigation of potential industrial development up to 1976 (i.e., through the SNDP period). The Southern Province is traversed by the existing railroad to Rhodesia and includes the municipality of Livingstone. Manufac- turing employment in the province is about 13 percent of the national total, and that in agriculture, approximately 40 percent. The province is in a greatly advantageous position compared to the non line-of-rail provinces. Nevertheless, the total employment projected in the 23 potential projects listed by the Study 1/ SNDP, p. 295. 2/ Gesellschaft fur Regionale Strukturentwicklung. Southern Province of Zambia. Prospects of Regional Development, Bonn 1971. - 22 - would amount to some 2,500. 1/ Even with a fairly generous assumption of ex- panded employment in existing enterprises, and in new small scale developments, the increase would be sufficient only to maintain, not increase, the Province's share of projected national employment growth. In addition, 14 of the 23 projects were based on agricultural inputs. 3.06 The main Potential source of manufacturing activity which might be established in regional centers rests with assembly activities, where the bulk of the components are imported and a relatively standardized good produced for sale to a national market. As a means for decentralization of industry this has two major drawbacks: (a) By definition, the extent of generation of other activity in the locality of the plant will be slight. Since, except perhaps for a product such as bicycles, the manufacturing activity and product would be relatively sophisticated, most of its supporting services, e.g., engineering skills, would not provide a general stimulus to activity in a region in which subsistence agriculture was dominant. (b) The number of potential locations in the country is small. Since this type of assembly industry would rely heavily on imported materials, good access to these supplies and to national markets would be essential. The automobile assembly plant at Livingstone is on the main rail link with Rhodesia and South Africa. However, the recent border closure has reduced the value of this location. The only other potential locations of this type are those offered by the new rail link with Tanzania. This effec- tively eliminates the western half of the country (i.e., Western and Northwestern Provinces), Eastern Province, Luapula Province and much of Northern Province. 3.07 The potential scale of such development is, however, likely to be small. It is estimated that in order to establish a manufacturing based town with 50,000 inhabitants by 1985, it would be necessary for it to capture at least 10 percent of the additional employment in manufacturing which might be generated in the 1976-1985 decade. 2/ For reasons cited above, this would be difficult. A town of this size would also only account for about five percent of urban growth in the same period. 3.08 The orientation of manufacturing activities toward national or export markets can have a significant impact upon location of industry. A number of countries have established border industries in disadvantaged regions (some- times accompanied by free port status) aimed primarily at export markets. The possibility of Zambian industrial exports to East Africa has been raised, which would presumably benefit the Northern Province. However, such possibilities 1/ See Annex Table II. 15. 2/ See Annex II. - 23 - appear slight because of the relatively small size of these markets, presence of competing industries and high transport and labor costs. 1/ The largest market would be provided by the Zairian Copperbelt in Shaba. Since this is adjacent to the Zambian copperbelt, development of this market would not stimulate Zambia's outlying regions, but would accentuate the concentration in existing centers. 3.09 Non-manufacturing activities may also be decentralized to some extent. The workshops of the TAZARA railroad are being located at Mpika in Northern Province. More significantly a greater degree of decentralization to the Provincial level would have a double impact on provincial capitals. It would both provide initial employment and also increase the relative im- portance of these towns as decision making centers as compared to the major urban centers. This in itself provides an impetus for related activities, e.g., in construction, to locate there. Need for Integrated Agricultural-Urban Development 3.10 Development of urban centers in the non line-of-rail provinces will therefore depend primarily on the expansion of resource based activities or market-based activities where economies of scale in production are out- weighed by the costs of transportation or communication, e.g., fresh food products, furniture manufacture, building materials, machinery and equipment servicing. The growth of the local market for these goods and services, except in isolated localities where mineral production may be developed, will depend upon the expansion of agricultural output and incomes. Expansion of agricultural output will also provide some opportunity for agricultural pro- cessing. The stimulation of the growth of urban centers away from the line- of-rail is thus linked directly to agricultural development in the regions and requires that a comprehensive regional view of development is taken. 2/ The Long-Term Role of Agriculture 3.11 Agriculture currently contributes almost 13 percent of GDP. In the first half of this decade the sector has been expanding at about 1.7 percent per year, compared to 3.2 percent for the economy as a whole. Even if the relative rate of growth of agriculture is increased in the latter part of the current decade, the share of agriculture in 1980 will still be below 15 percent. In the longer term, the development of agriculture in Zambia is hampered by both economic and environmental factors. The long distances to sea-ports result in high transport costs thus reducing incentives to export. However, this does conversely provide a measure of protection to Zambian agriculture in its own market. The domestic market by the end of the century 1/ See De Gaay Fortman, "Zambia's Markets" in Elliott, Constraints on Zambia's Development, pp 224-232. 2/ Annex II discusses these aspects of development in Eastern Province. - 24 - will approach 10 million persons but this is relatively small. Therefore, it appears likely that in the long-term while agriculture's share of G.D.P. might grow as increased import substitution occurs and some potential exports, e.g. tobacco, beef, confectionery groundnuts, are increased, this growth is unlikely to result in agriculture's share of G.D.P. rising much above its present level. 3.12 Therefore, if incomes are to be equalized between agriculture and other sectors, ultimately the proportion of the population engaged in agri- culture would have to decline to a level more in line with its share of G.D.P. compared to its current level of about 50 percent. Experience in currently more developed countries indicates that such equality will not be achieved in the foreseeable future. However, it may be reasonable to assume that by the end of the century the proportion of the labor force engaged in agriculture will have fallen to close to 20 percent with another 10-15 percent in rural areas in related activities. Thus the population distribution might be 35 percent rural and 65 percent urban, compared to a current rural-urban split of about 65-35. Future Population Balance 3.13 Currently the eight cities and municipalities contain approximately 32 percent of the nation's population. Projections by the Town and Country Planning Department foresee this proportion rising to 40 percent by 1980 and 50 percent by the end of the century. 1/ This projection assumes a slowing of their rate of growth from about seven percent per annum currently to below 3.5 percent per annum by the end of the period. Since the national population growth rate is assumed to remain near three percent per annum this would mean that migration to these metropolitan centers would virtually cease. Experience in other countries indicates that such a reduction of migration flows would be extremely difficult to achieve. 3.14 The likelihood that the eight municipalities will contain over 50 percent of the nation's population by the end of the century implies that the potential size of any other urban centers is greatly restricted. Thus if 35 percent of the population were rural and 55 percent in the eight municipalities, the balance of the urban places would contain only about 10 percent of total population. This bears a striking similarity to the current Australian dis- tribution, where almost 65 percent of the population live in 10 cities of over 100,000 inhabitants, 11.3 percent in 63 towns of 10-100,000 persons and 24 percent in smaller settlements. 2/ The Future Urban System 3.15 The appropriate urban strategy for Zambia is strongly influenced by the low overall population density of the country. For the country as a 1/ See Annex I. 2/ Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics, Australia Yearbook 1972, p. 132. - 25 - whole the current population density is six persons per square kilometer. In the non line-of-rail provinces it is only 4.5 persons per square kilometer. The density in these provinces will increase, but is unlikely to rise above seven persons per square kilometer by the end of the century. Agricultural development will require a network of service centers which will develop into a hierarchy in size and function. Because of the low overall population density, however, these centers will be relatively widely spaced. The extent of the potential business linkages between individual regional centers will be small. Each will service its hinterland and ship its products to the national or export markets. Over 50 percent of the national market will be in the existing urban core and this will be the major internal source of goods and services. 3.16 Thus the existing economic and physical structure of the country, coupled with its low population density strongly implies that those areas not adjacent to the existing core region of the economy (i.e., Copperbelt/Lusaka) will remain essentially peripheral to that core. The fact that the Copperbelt/ Lusaka region is physically in the center of the country only enhances its locational advantage. No other possible center is likely ever to have a market potential approaching that of the existing core region. What will be of major importance, therefore, in promoting growth of the regions and their urban centers will be accessibility to internal and external markets. Such accessibility has in the past given the Southern Province an advantage over other provinces. An Urban Strategy 3.17 The low potential density of economic activity implies that the number of justifiable communications arteries is small. Thus the basic form of development will have to be based on a series of corridors between the center and external markets, rather than in a dense internal network. Links between these corridors will be limited. In the past the only corridor in the country has been the central line-of-rail, linking Lusaka and the Copperbelt to Southern Africa (see map) and also (but of lesser importance) linking to Zaire to the north. The major new corridor which has been created is the Great North Road and the Tanzania-Zambia (TAZARA) railroad, linking Zambia with the port of Dar-es-Salaam in Tanzania. The Great East Road, from Lusaka via Chipata to Malawi is linked by rail to the Mozambique ports of Beira and Nacala. In the longer term, additional routes to the north-west and west to Angola and Atlantic ports may also be feasible (see Map IBRD 1099R). Urban-Regional Development in Tanzanian Corridor 3.18 A number of potential opportunities exist which indicate that a coherent development strategy for the eastern half of the country could be formulated, linked to the new rail-line. The region between Kapiri Mposhi, where the TAZARA railroad joins the existing rail line, and Serenje forms part of the major area of land of high crop potential in the country (see map). Maize output in this area is reported to have increased sharply since the construction of the improved Great North Road. In addition, its relative pro- ximity to both the Copperbelt and Lusaka gives the region additional potential - 26 - as a site for manufacturing activities. To the east of the rail line, on the boundaries of the Eastern and Northern Provinces, is the Luangwa National Park. The more elevated area on the southern and eastern borders of Eastern Province is also considered as of high crop potential. This includes a major portion of the Family Farm Project, which will have a significant impact on cash crop production in the Province in the next five years. 1/ 3.19 To the present time, however, no overall planning has been carried out for the development of the TAZARA railroad corridor. The Ministry of Planning and Finance began a study but this was put aside before any real progress had been made. A provincial plan for the Central Province by the Research Unit of the Department of Town and Country Planning is close to completion. This is primarily designed to provide a framework within which a provincial program of public infrastructure development can be developed. The Department is also in the process of preparing a structure plan for Kapiri Mposhi. A glass factory began operations in 1974. Private sector interest in the area as a site for commercial development is increasing and consider- able squatting has occurred. The town is expected to expand to about 10,000 or more persons by 1980. 3.20 In Northern Province, the main workshops for the railway are under construction at Mpika together with housing for about 2,000 railroad employees. A population of some 13,000 is expected by 1976 when the workshops will be in full operation. The Town and Country Planning Department is preparing a structure plan designed to link the housing now being constructed with the existing settlement of 1,500 persons, as development proceeds. Preliminary planning for development of the Mbala Kasama area is being carried out by the Ministry of Planning and Finance. Present thinking envisages a relatively conservative program, concentrating on expansion of coffee, and sunflowers, an extension of fisheries on Lake Tanganyika and upgrading of the local cattle herd. Consideration is to be given to the development of a small industrial area at Kasama to take advantage of the location on the railroad. 3.21 Some preliminary planning has been carried out for a route from the Great East Road to the southern section of the Luangwa National Park and the possibility of extending this link to the Great North Road is being investigated. Such a route would provide a link between the Eastern Province and the new rail route and also probably shorten the road distance to the Copperbelt. This road could join the Great North Road in the vicinity of Serenje. This town is being linked to Luapula Province by a highway on which construction started in 1974, and would therefore become a major nodal point. The Town and Country Planning Department has started planning work for the development of the Luangwa National Park to select sites for hotels and camps, outline a settlement pattern for the area and draw up a program for invest- ment in the Park and the surrounding region. Most of this ancillary develop- ment is planned to the southeast of the Park partly within reach of Chipata. 3.22 Because of the overall manpower shortages and, since it is viewed as important that development planning and execution be focused as far as 1/ See Annex II. - 27 - possible at the provincial level, a phased approach will have to be adopted to regional development in Zambia. Proposals for a phased approach to urban/ regional development within this general context are made in Chapter 5, follow- ing a discussion of the more specific problems of the urban areas themselves. - 28 - CHAPTER 4 THE URBAN AREAS A. Cities and Municipalities 1. Introduction 4.01 In order to place the present characteristics of Zambian urban centers in prospective it is necessary to briefly review the major factors related to their development. During the colonial period the urban areas were to some degree seen as centers of "temporary residence". Most of the managerial and skilled technical staff of the mining companies and other major enterprises and of government were expatriates, usually under specified term contracts. Much of the unskilled labor force, mainly Zamnbian, were similarlv under contract and there was an implicit assumption that the indigenous population had a permanent home in the rural tribal areas to which they would return after working for a period in the urban areas. In such circumstances housing was normally supplied by employers for expatriates and frequently also for Zambians. 4.02 Public utilities and services were included in these provisions. In many cases mining and other companies developed discrete townships for their own personnel and these were adjoined by the "towns proper" containing other commercial and industrial activities and general housing areas. 1/ This overall form of development has given rise to a number of general features of Zambian towns which form the basis of the major problems which face them at the present time. These may be summarized as: First, a wide range in quality of housing and services within urban areas (a feature exacerbated by the development of squatter areas). Secondly, a sharp segregation of housing areas by income groups. This is generally paralleled by variations in density, i.e., low density in high income areas. Thirdly, segregation of uses, residen- tial, commercial and industrial, coupled with segregation of housing types has resulted in a dispersed urban development pattern and long journeys to work and services. Fourthly, a high proportion of the urban housing stock is owned and frequently subsidized by central and local government, or by large scale employers. 2. The Structure of Towns 4.03 Many of the problems of urban services, including the shortage of housing, in Zambian towns are exacerbated by the spatial pattern of develop- ment of urban areas. Much of the original spatial planning of the towns 1/ For a detailed discussion of this aspect of urban development in Zambia see G. Kay A Social Geography of Zambia and D. Hywel Davies Zambia in Maps. - 29 - during the colonial period was based on three principles: (1) racial segre- gation; (2) unequal land allocations and residential densities; and (3) isolation of mining activities from urban development. Taken together, these principles led to the planning of towns covering great areas, with central business and industrial zones frequently adjacent to white residential neighborhoods. Residential compounds for Africans were located on the periphery of the urban area, often with little means of transport to town, public services, or places of employment. The low density of Zambian towns, with their relatively well-developed infrastructure in the central business and residential areas, and neglect of compounds for Africans was a consequ- ence of earlier racial policies. 4.04 The presence of mines in the Copperbelt towns illustrates a variant on this pattern of development, with the entire mine company area comprising a separate territorial-administrative entity adjacent to the town. The patterns of formal mine-town interactions influenced the degree of worker involvement in urban life beyond the mine township. Thus, workers were strongly encouraged to live within the mine township. The transitory character of mine employment up to 1964 heavily influenced the lack of perma- nent urban residential pattern by Africans. Since 1964, with the movement of women to the towns, the mine townships have become less transitory and offer a viable, long-term alternative to life in municipalities. 4.05 The implications of these development patterns for present and future urban growth are very important. Zambian towns are presentlv of low density and poorly integrated in a functional sense. Distances between residence and work are frequently long. Table 12 shows the median distances to work and the mode of transport used by residents of a range of lower income townships in Kitwe. This city has a population of 292,000 and is the second largest in the country. The average worker covered in the survey travelled 3.5 miles to work. The only significant use of public transport was by those in council housing or the site and services scheme surveyed, who, on average had furthest to go. Those in squatter townships were relatively well off with respect to distance, but had to rely on their own means of transport. Somewhat surprisingly, the group most frenuently traveling by foot were those in the mine townships, 78 percent of whom said they had 3 or 4 miles to travel. Overall, about one-third of the sample used motorized transport, 21 percent bicycles and the remaining 45 percent walked. 4.06 This low density development also affects the growth of the informal tertiary sector, which is noticeably small in contrast to activities in other African countries. Trading from houses is frequently discouraged or banned in public or company housing of site and services schemes. Traditional market activity is almost non-existent, both because of ethnic traditions, the small scale of some compounds which would discourage permanent markets and land use restrictions. The result is shopping in the downtown business districts on Saturday afternoons, involving expensive, long commutes by the heads of households and their wives. Restrictions on African commerce during the colonial period have been lifted, but their influence persists. - 30 - 4.07 At the same time the strong attachment to the generous use of land for residential purposes does mean that the overall density of towns in Zambia will remain low. Emphasis will have to be given in planning to con- solidating the existing structure, and to ensuring that adequate public transport services are developed to ease the problem of commuting to employ- ment and service centers. 4.08 These structural problems can only be resolved over a period of time as growth continues. At present the major problem of the municipalities is in attempting to reduce the wide disparity of housing conditions and service levels which exist and meeting the needs of future expansion. The first of these will primarily involve the upgrading of existing squatter areas and some relocation of individual households. Current policy requires that expansion primarily be catered for by individual construction of housing. This creates a number of problems which will have to be dealt with if growth is not to occur by default in the form of increased squatter settlement. 3. Housing and Infrastructure 1/ The Housing Stock 4.09 The attitude to urban development outlined in para. 4.01 resulted in an extremely high proportion of dwelling units in urban areas being owned by public or private landlords. Table 13 shows that in 1969, 71 percent of all dwellings (including squatter housing) were rented. Of these, 31 percent were owned by companies and 24 percent by local government. This was parti- cularly pronounced in the copper mining towns where over 40 percent of dwell- ings were company owned. This is in sharp contrast to the rural areas where 94 percent of dwellings were owner-occupied. 4.10 At the same time the general level of the urban housing stock is high. In 1969, 70 percent of dwellings were constructed of concrete block or burnt brick, compared to only 14 percent in rural areas (see Table 14). Similarly almost 50 percent had private taps and 38 percent access to shared taps. The range of housing size and facilities is however very wide. Almost all council and company owned housing is of permanent construction. However, in Kitwe for example, lower cost council dwellings vary from quarters for single persons, to 2 room dwellings with total area of about 25 square meters to 4/5 room dwellings with an area of around 60 square meters. A similar range exists in mine housing standards, 2/ with 2 to 4 roomed high density housing i.e. gross densities of about 20 dwellings per hectare. Mining com- pany personnel with salaries of over K 120 ($187) per month are normally entitled to housing in lower density areas (e.g. about 10 dwellings/hectare) while senior staff are housed in areas with densities of only 2-6 dwellings/ hectare and pay no rent. 1/ Water Supply and Sewerage were the subject of a recent IBRD Survey: "Zambia, Water Supply and Sanitation Sector Study," Report No. 559a-ZA, February 1975. This report will therefore only discuss these sectors as aspects of questions of urban growth and shelter needs. 2/ See Annex III. - 31 - 4.11 At the opposite end of the spectrum however those living in squatter (unauthorized) areas receive a very low level of services. Thus in one major squatter area of Lusaka, a survey in 1972/73 1/ showed that only 8.5 percent of dwellings were constructed wholly or in part with burnt brick and concrete block, while 90 percent were of sundried brick. Similarly there was no piped water to the area, 20 percent of the dwellings had their o.m well, 60 percent shared a well and 17 percent indicated that they normally obtained water from taps in a neighboring housing area -- a distance of up to 2 km. The gross density of housing was high, 40 dwellings per hectare but despite this, the area had to rely on pit latrines. While the general lack of services is typical, densities in squatter areas vary widely. Thus two large squatter settlements in Kabwe have an estimated average gross density of 5 dwellings per hectare. 4.12 This unevenness in the housing stock and availability of utilities is also reflected in the levels of overcrowding of dwellings. In Zambia as a whole 51 percent of dwellings are of one room and 25 percent of two rooms. However, there appears to be little relationship between the size of dwelling and the number of occupants. 2/ Table 15 shows the density of occupation of dwellings of different sizes in Zambia as a whole and in Kitwe. Overall, 54 percent of dwellings in Zambia were occupied at a densitv of over two persons per room and may be considered to be over-crowded. On the other hand, almost 23 percent were occupied by one person or less per room. Close to 25 percent of two room dwellings and 14 percent of one room dwellings were under- utilized by this definition. Similarly in Kitwe, 56 percent of dwellings were overcrowded and 20 percent underutilized. 4.13 This degree of underutilization is probably a reflection of the policy of subsidization of housing services. Council housing lists are generally very long and thus there is every encouragement for those in these dwellings to stay in them. The degree of subsidization is indicated by the fact that for most councils rental payments amount to only 75 to 80 percent of revenues 3/ which themselves only just cover expenses. These expenses also reflect historical rather than current costs of housing construction. These earlier policies also created a climate of relatively high expectations of urban housing and a philosophy that the employer or the government was responsible for housing people in urban areas. The latter is reflected in the continuance by law of housing allowances of K 5.50 ($8.60) per month to all employees earning less than K 40 ($62.40) per month. Allowances are also frequently paid to those in higher income brackets unless housing is provided. Post Independence Policies 4.14 Following Independence, urban population grew rapidly. Initially an attempt was made in 1965, in the First Housing Programme, to increase construction of low-cost housing, with provision of serviced plots for self- help construction to account for 30 percent of the total. A number of changes in programs were made in the years immediately following, as progress was 1/ Dept. of Town and Country Planning Mwaziona, A Study of an Unofficial Housing Area. Lusaka, 1973. 2/ See Annex Table III. 1. 3/ See Annex III. - 32 - below expectations. Some lowering of standards was introduced, particularly in the Second Official Housing Programme of 1968. The proportion of serviced plots increased to almost 75 percent of the total public development and a number of grants and loans were introduced. The trend in housing policy since Independence has therefore been one of increasing commitment to the principle of self-help provision of shelter with public assistance. The country thus has a considerable fund of experience of such housing projects on which to draw. 4.15 In preparing the Second National Development Plan (SNDP), estimates of urban growth over the 1971-76 period were made which indicated a total need of approximately 85,500 dwelling units (17,000 per year) to cope with population increases, most of which would be in the eight municipalities. The Plan, however, made provision for only 70,000 units to be constructed with public support, leaving full private development to make up at least part of the gap. The Plan places almost complete reliance in the development of serviced plots, which comprise 67,000 of the total. The 3,000 units to be constructed fully from public funds were entirely allocated to townships and rural councils. This does not mean that the municipalities will construct no houses, but only those for which funds are lent by employers. Councils must obtain loan sanction for all borrowing and cannot therefore go directly to the public to borrow for house construction. 4.16 This policy also stems from a desire to reduce the level of direct subsidization of housing (at least in publicly owned housing) and thus to increase the attractiveness of owner-occupation relative to tenancy. Grants to councils on their houses are therefore being progressively eliminated and councils have been instructed to cease subsidizing housing accounts from liquor undertakings. 1/ The thrust of this policy is to reduce the degree of public ownership of housing, and to increase owner-occupation of dwellings. This is also to be encouraged by the sale of council-owned housing. However, arrangements for such sales have not yet been made. 2/ It should be noted that this policy does not itself help to increase the housing stock. However, if sales prices are above original loan commitment, such sales would generate funds which could be used for additional housing projects if approved by central government. Sale of the dwellings would also transfer the cost of maintenance from the council to the purchaser. An alternative would be to selectively increase rents with some form of rent rebate for lower income groups. This would provide an increased incentive for those with higher in- comes to construct their own housing. 4.17 However, at the same time that public policy was switching to this encouragement of private construction, the slowdown in the rate of growth of employment in mining and in major enterprises such as the railways meant that these groups did not increase their rate of construction as urban population growth increased. Thus in Kabwe, over the six year period to 1973, while the number of council houses increased by 33 percent and other official and private housing by 21 percent, the number of dwellings in squatter areas 1/ See Annex III. 2/ See Annex III. - 33 - rose by 270 percent and those in self-help schemes by 320 percent. Squatter housing made up 67 percent of the increase over this period. This situation appears to be typical. In 1969 it was estimated that about 14 percent of urban households were in squatter areas. A more recent estimate for 1974 indicated that this proportion has risen to about 29 percent. While these two estimates may not be strictly comparable and the later estimate be more comprehensive, they do suggest an alarming rate of increase approaching 20 percent per annum. 4.18 Thus it is clear that the site and service program is not operating at a level sufficient to meet the needs of population growth and that the proportion of the population with access to utility services, etc., is falling. Given the expected continued rapid growth of the municipalities it is clear that major emphasis must be placed on establishing viable site and services programs in these centers. 4.19 By November 1973, a total of 12,815 dwellings were reported as com- pleted on site and service schemes in the eight cities and municipalities, amounting to almost 5 percent of total stock (see Table 16). In Ndola the number of dwellings approached 10 percent of the total and was over 6 percent in Lusaka. However, a more realistic view of the achievement in other Copper- belt municipalities is seen if housing in mine townships is omitted. Since this comprises almost half the stock in these centers the proportional con- tribution of site and service schemes to stock in municipal areas is appro- ximately double that indicated in Table 16. On the other hand, a major short- fall still remains. Between July and November 1973 reported completions were 1,938, equivalent to an annual rate of 5,800, or less than 40 percent of needs. Housing Development at the Local Level 4.20 It is not clear that many councils are in a position to place suffi- cient emphasis on this problem, to achieve such an increase in self-help housing construction in the near future. The division of organizational res- ponsibility for housing varies somewhat. Responsibility for site and services schemes lies with the Department of Health in Lusaka and usually with the Housing Department elsewhere. The latter department appears in most muni- cipalities visited to be primarily concerned with the administration of the council's housing stock. In effect the department's function is seen as one of "estate management" rather than of "housing development". A Community Development Officer is normally in charge of a site and service scheme and responsible for the operation of storehouses for sale of building materials (in cooperation with the Treasurer's Department). Site works are however the responsibility of the Engineer's Department. 4.21 With the expected continuation of growth of about 7 percent, the municipalities will double in population in 10 years. Thus,in this period, urban infrastructure and housing stock equal to that currently in place will have to be replicated, even if the proportion of the population living in squatter settlements, poorly served by infrastructure, is to be maintained. A reduction of this proportion would require an even more rapid rate of - 34 - development. In order to meet this objective, changes in administrative structure appear to be desirable. It was noticeable that in Ndola, where site and service programs appear to have had most success the housing and community development staffs have been combined in a Department of Housing and Social Services. This type of organization not only facilitated coordination between the two staff groups, but also helped ensure that the overall objectives to- wards which they were working were consistent. Consideration might be given to creating a structure in which such a Housing and Social Services Department and the Engineers Department could be closely linked with the Town Planning itself in a grouping with the prime function of urban development. Council committee structure and responsibilities might also be reviewed to help stream- line operation and to ensure that this departmental grouping will not be hamp- ered by receiving conflicting directives from committees with overlapping responsibilities. 4.22 Some streamlining of structure would assist in increasing a muni- cipality's ability to respond to the demand for shelter and infrastructure services. However, the essense of the site and services program is that dwelling construction will be organized and financed by the individuals concerned. Individual households have three alternatives: (a) to construct a dwelling in a site and service scheme; (b) to construct a dwelling in an unauthorized squatter settlement; or (c) share an existing dwelling with its current occupants. Bidding an existing dwelling away from its current occupant, e.g., by purchase, or paying a higher rent, may be viewed as an additional alternative, but the displaced household is then effectively faced with the three alternatives above. The response to these alternatives, will depend upon their cost, and the household's available resources (both capital and labor). Costs in Site and Service Schemes 4.23 Site and service schemes in Zambia have been of two alternative standards. "Fully serviced" schemes have individual piped water and water- borne sewage connections to each lot. "Basic" schemes have communal water connections, i.e., stand pipes, and consequently have no waterborne sewage, characteristically relying on pit latrines. The costs of preparing these plots, including road access and drainage, will naturally vary with local conditions, but the figures given below are typical: - 35 - Site and Service Schemes Monthly Plot Charges by Type of Scheme /1 Type of Scheme Basic Fully-Serviced Low Cost High Cost K K K Plot Development Cost 150 400 800 Monthly Capital Charge 1.05 2.80. 5.59 Standing Charges /2 1.78 2.13 4.31 Total Monthly Charge 2.83 4.93 9.90 Source: Annex Table III.15. /1 Based on 1973 prices. /2 Includes water, sewerage and dustbin charges, property taxes, and manage- ment fee. 4.24 The standing charge covers costs of water supply, sewerage, garbage collection, scheme management and property taxes. The monthly ground rent in this example also includes a levy which will repay the capital cost of the plot plus interest at 7-1/2 percent over 30 years. In practice these charges have been reduced by various grants. During the FNDP period, GRZ paid a grant of 50 percent of plot costs to a maximum of K 210. The SNDP scheme has been to grant aid costs over K 300 subject to a maximum grant of K 200. In addition unit grants from central government and from profits of liquor operations have been used to reduce standing charges. The SNDP however proposed to eliminate these grants progressively. At the present time there is considerable uncer- tainty as to whether they will be paid in future. As a result, plot occupants will probably have to pay the full cost of plot development and servicing. 4.25 These charges represent payments for the plot only. In addition the occupier has to build the dwelling. Building costs vary depending on materials used, design and labor charges. Estimates for materials costs only, assuming a concrete foundation range upwards from K 16 ($25) per square meter 1/ for buildings constructed of sun-dried brick. Thus a minimal size unit of about 20 square meters would cost at least K 320 ($500). Loans have been made to plot holders to assist in the purchase of building materials. The size and terms of these loans have been varied on a number of occasions. In addition employers have been encouraged to make loans to their employees. It is also possible for individuals who have been making payments into the Zambian Na- tional Provident Fund to withdraw all but two years of their payments for the purpose of financing the construction or purchase of a dwelling. 1/ See Annex III. - 36 - Target Populations 4.26 The extent to which individuals will participate in these schemes will depend upon their ability to pay these charges. Assuming that individuals will be willing to spend up to 20 percent of their income on housing, Table 17 estimates the minimum monthly income needed to pay the monthly charges on basic and fully serviced schemes. For each type, a range of loans are taken from none to K 500. This upper level however should not be taken as a limit since expenditure may be well above this. It does in fact represent the material cost of a minimal concrete block dwelling. The ability of those likely to participate in these schemes to pay these charges is illustrated in Table 18. The minimum required incomes have been compared to income levels among residents of squatter and council townships in Kitwe. The table indicates the proportions of these groups which could not afford the monthly charges. 4.27 Clearly, even if no loan is required, the fully serviced scheme is beyond the reach of many individuals. Fifty percent of squatter households had monthly incomes below the required K 40 per month, and 28 percent of those in council housing. The additional potential burden of loan repayment for building materials sharply reduces the proportion able to pay - e.g., only 20 percent of the squatters could afford to carry a K 300 loan. On the other hand only five percent of the squatters could potentially not afford the cost of a basic scheme without a loan. Again, however, building loan charges sharply increase costs. 4.28 On most schemes minimum building standards, as prescribed in local byelaws have been laid down. These have the effect of raising the minimum materials cost of housing to about K 300. For those at low income levels it would appear likely that loan assistance would be required to enable them to construct a dwelling of this standard. However this automatically increases the proportion who cannot pay. 4.29 Surveys in squatter areas however have indicated that the majority of dwellings were constructed for K 100 or less in materials. Standards are of course lower. Since the current squatter population may be reasonably representative of those households to whom these housing schemes will have to cater, it may be appropriate to allow lower standards in some schemes. If this is not done, there may be up to one-quarter of the population who cannot meet charges levied. This will only aggravate the existing problem of arrears of payments, or encourage further growth of squatter settlements. 4.30 The SNDP proposed that all schemes and projects to upgrade existing squatter areas include piped water supplies and sewage facilities, i.e., that "basic" schemes no longer be initiated. The figures presented above show clearly that unless fully serviced schemes are heavily subsidized, they will be beyond the means of a majority of the potential occupants. In order to - 37 - bring the cost of schemes to the "basic" level, the amount of the subsidy would have to be K5 ($7.80) per month, i.e. $94 per year. For the 70,000 plots proposed in the SNDP this would mean an annual cost of $6.5 million - or double existing housing subsidies. 4.31 Government policy is however to reduce the level of subsidies for housing. If this goal is to be achieved, it will be necessary for a substan- tial proportion of site and service schemes to be of basic standard. This obviously does not preclude upgrading the areas at a later stage as income levels rise to provide individual water and sewer connections. The problem of payment arrears in site and service schemes (and also council housing) is already very significant and was exacerbated by the Rent Act of 1972. This made prosecution necessary in order to evict tenants in arrears. Amendment of this legislation is currently being considered. However, even if the legal aspects are resolved, arrears remain a major potential problem. This is more likely to arise if plot charges are high. 4. Municipal Finances 1/ Source of Revenue 4.32 The two major sources of council revenues are the personal levy and the property tax. The former is in effect a local tax on incomes which is collected by all local authorities according to a schedule set by GRZ. Employers are required to deduct the levy from the wages of their employees, but collection of levies from self-employed persons is difficult. Other municipal revenues are received from fees charged for miscellaneous services such as refuse collection, automobile registration and from trade licenses. Water and sewerage services are directly charged to consumers. The council housing stocks also yield considerable rental income, though not sufficient to cover costs. In addition, council liquor operations are expected to generate surpluses which in the past have been used to subsidize housing funds. Councils' ability to generate adequate surpluses from this operation, however, has varied widely. 4.33 GRZ also provides some grants to councils for specific purposes. At the present time all but rural councils receive funds to (a) finance a proportion of their preventive health program, (b) subsidize council house rents (this is being phased out), (c) help cover the cost of provision of serviced sites for self-built housing (the future of this grant is uncertain) and (d) pay for outside town-planning consultants. Prior to 1972 councils also received block grants from the central government. At present, munic- ipalities, townships and rural councils receive some substitutes for the block grants. Municipal councils receive rate limitation grants and townships benefit from revenue deficiency grants, but the cities do not now receive such assistance, which is in any case being restricted. 1/ For a more detailed discussion of sources of local government funds and expenditures, see Annex IV. - 38 - Central Control over Local Finance Decisions 4.34 The control of the local councils over the various revenue sources and expenditures outlined above is limited. Councils cannot alter rates or tariff schedules on any local government revenue source without obtaining prior approval from the Ministry of Local Government and Housing. The Ministry must give approval before councils can sell any land, materials, or other assets and negotiates all loans for capital expenditure purposes. It must also approve any investment of surplus funds. On the expenditure side, the central government exercises strict control over capital expenditures: all items must be approved even if financed internally. The government has used these controls to attempt to control local government expenditures, particularly in light of national fiscal constraints since 1971. In 1972, the Ministry requested the City, Municipal and Township councils to limit their Rate Fund expenditures 1/ in that year to five percent below their 1971 level. The 1973 limit for these expenditures was put at 1972 plus five percent, i.e., effectively back at the 1971 level. Expenditures on water, sewerage and liquor undertakings were not limited in this manner, since it was recognized that these accounts generated their own revenue and a cutback in expenditures could result in a decline in service and subsequently revenue. Also exempted from the cutback were items over which councils had no control such as mandated civil service wage increases and increases in debt service costs. 4.35 The effect of this policy has been twofold. Expenditures have been held down in part by not filling posts which have fallen vacant. Since many posts in local government, particularly at the upper level, are held by expatriates on fixed period contracts, a number of these have expired. This has meant that in certain instances departmental staffing in upper positions has fallen to dangerously low levels and is threatening to impair departments' ability to perform their normal duties. Since it is important that extra efforts are made immediately to increase the rate of housing construction (outside squatter settlements) it is essential that steps are taken to release funding to fill vacant positions particularly in housing, social services and engineering departments to enable them to handle the additional workload. 4.36 The close central control of funds, coupled with constraints on staffing at central and local levels and a number of changes in procedures and grant conditions, has led to problems of communication between central and local government. The result has been to create a considerable degree of uncertainty at the local government level as to the current status of a number of programs. The heavy cutbacks of capital expenditure has also led to considerable over- budgeting, thereby obscuring overall priorities. 1/ Expenditures financed by councils' own sources, principally rates and personal levy. - 39 - Expanding the Tax Base 4.37 Comparisons of revenues raised and expenditures between individual cities and municipalities are hampered by the fact that in general the major mining companies operate outside the local government system. Thus in Luanshya, a municipality of approximately 113,000 persons, it is estimated that almost 60 percent of the population is housed by the Roan Consolidated Mines who operate the copper mines. These people live in what is referred to as the "Roan Township". The township is provided with services, e.g., water, sewerage and roads, by the mining company, which does not pay property taxes to the municipality. Company employees are not required to live in the company town- ship, but they are strongly encouraged to do so. While the rate of growth of Luanshya has been relatively low in recent years, about 4 percent per annum, employment in the mine has been virtually stagnant. Thus, growth has probably been absorbed by the area controlled by the municipal council, which therefore would have an effective rate of growth of about eight percent or more. 4.38 Luanshya is probably the most extreme case of this type in terms of the relative size of the mine township, but similar conditions apply in all the Copperbelt towns except Ndola and also in Kabwe. The mining companies do not separate costs of serving the mine and the township in their accounts. The potential rateable value of mine property is not known, nor is the extent to which mine township inhabitants make use of the facilities of the municipali- ties, e.g., markets, parks, libraries. It is not clear why the mine properties should not form part of the tax bases upon which the greater urban communities in which they are located can draw to finance their growth.1/ 4.39 Because of the non-assessment of mine properties, direct comparison between the major urban centers on assessed values and expenditures is difficult. Table 19 shows a breakdown of assessed values for three cities and three municipalities with an attempt made to adjust for mine townships, where possible. This shows per capita valuations of K 500 to K 600 for the cities and somewhat below this for the municipalities. The bases for these valuations in most cases date from the mid sixties, since when property values have increased significantly. Revaluation has been hampered by an acute shortage of Valuation Officers. 4.40 Considerable uncertainty has been created by recent decisions on land tenure and property valuation. These are basically intended to eli- minate speculation in land and property and to prevent individuals from ob- taining large capital gains as urban growth occurs and also to be in accord with traditional Zambian concepts of land tenure. (a) Land Tenure. Ownership of all land held under freehold titles has been vested in the State under the Land 1/ The Minister of Local Government and Housing established a working party in 1975 to enquire into the integration of the mine townships into surrounding Local Authorities. - 40 - (Conversion of Titles) Act of 1975. All such land is to be held under 100-year leaseholds at nominal rentals, e.g., K 20 per hectare (or part thereof) for residential land in municipalities and K 160 per hectare for commercial land, regardless of location. These holdings may be transferred with the permission of the President at a price based on the unexhausted value of the improvements. (b) Valuation. Zambian real property assessment for taxa- tion purposes has been split into site value and the value of improvements. Higher levies have been made on site values. Following the decision that unimproved land has no value, site values are to be eliminated from the tax rolls. The immediate effect of this change is likely to be a relative shift in the property tax burden from commercial to residential property, since site value has generally comprised a larger share of total value of commercial property. It is not clear whether the value of structures alone will continue to be used for taxation or whether a complete reassessment will be carried out based on market value. 4.41 These measures may reduce the prices paid for property, whether purchased or rented. Whether this represents an improvement over the pre- existing situation is not clear. The economic benefits resulting from site location will tend to accrue to the occupant rather than the owner. This is likely to result in an excess number of potential occupants compared to the available supply. Some means will have to be found to allocate the available land or property among potential occupants. Elsewhere this type of situation has given rise to informal pricing arrangements such as "key money". A detailed review of policy objectives and alternatives would appear desirable before final decisions are made in this important and complex field. General Rate Fund Positions 4.42 Table 19 indicates the per capita net expenditures and revenues for nine jurisdictions in 1972. Net expenditures are the excess of each of the committee accounts over the receipts of that account for sales of water, charges or licenses. Of the three cities, two showed an excess of revenues over net expenditures. The third, Ndola, had a per capita deficit of approx- imately K 0.40. The cities received no general grants from central govern- ment in 1972. The municipalities did however receive a rate limitation grant, which varied from about K 1.50 to K 2.30 per capita. Even with this grant, two of the councils showed an overall deficit for the year. This poorer financial position than the cities appears to derive from both a slightly higher level of net expenditures and lower revenues. 4.43 Some indication of additional reasons for variation in financial position of the different groups of places can be obtained from the summary of - 41 - gross expenditures by function shown in Table 20. Total gross expenditures between the groups of towns appear generally comparable. There are, however, some differences in distribution between functions. 1/ The proportion of spending on water supply and sewerage is lowest in the municipalities suggest- ing some increasing cost as town size rises above 200,000 and more extensive systems are required. For the smaller towns the high fixed costs of system and operation result in higher per capita costs. On the other hand the proportion of spending on Administration and General Services appears to decline with size. This however is rather a catch-all category and comparisons are therefore difficult. 4.44 One factor which it has not been possible to bring adequately into this comparison is the proportion of the population obtaining a full complement of public services. Data for Lusaka suggest that when expenditures over the period 1967-72 are deflated to allow for cost of living increases, there is a decline in overall spending from K 25.94 to K 20.90 per capita. When these figures are further adjusted to exclude the proportion of the population in squatter settlements, the per capita expenditures increase from K 32.42 to K 34.84 (see Annex IV). This suggests that levels of service were maintained for those persons who received the full array of services. However from the standpoint of the "average inhabitant" of the city there appears to have been a significant decline in the level of public services obtained. 2/ Available data do not permit a similar analysis for the other centers. Issues in Municipal Finance 4.45 Current Government policy is aimed at reducing levels of transfer of central funds to the municipalities and thereby make them more dependent upon their own resources. Thus housing grants are being eliminated and other grants reduced. Given the concurrent desire to improve living conditions in squatter areas and the need to service the growth of population, will the result be an undue financial squeeze on the municipalities and who will bear the resulting burden? 4.46 As shown in para. 4.14 rents of council owned housing are subsidized to a considerable degree. In Kitwe the average rent paid per dwelling in 1972 was K 102. In order to meet housing expenditures out of rents and sundry fees, this average rent would have to be increased to K 144. For the average tenant this would mean that rental payments would rise from just under 15 per- cent of income to about 20 percent as shown below. This would balance the account on the basis of historic construction costs. If rents were raised to "economic" levels, i.e., equivalent to replacement costs, a surplus would 1/ Direct comparisons between any two places must be made with care because of differences in individual situations, and accounting methods. 2/ This is in part a result of restrictions on local government spending in 1972 which reduced Lusaka's per capita expenditures to K 28.42 from K 30.79 in 1971. - 42 - be generated in the acccount. It would not appear reasonable to expect that rents could immediately be raised to above an average of 20 percent of incomes and therefore such a rental policy is not advisable at present. However as prices and incomes rise in future, and as councils effectively cease building, the housing accounts should be able to generate surpluses for general rate fund use. Effects of Increases in Rents of Council Housing Current Break-even Rents Rents Average Rent (K/Month) 8.5 12.0 Median Income (K/month) 58.4 58.4 Rent as Percentage of Median Income 14.6 20.5 Source: Annex Tables III. 7, III.18 4.47 The data presented earlier indicate that at appropriate service levels the capital costs of residential development can be met out of monthly charges paid by plot occupants. In addition water and sewerage charges are fixed at levels required to amortize their cost. Thus increased costs to the councils will relate to other general services, e.g., administration, parks, streets and lighting. In Lusaka in 1972 these amounted to K 8.50 per inhabit- ant. The cost of extending these services to the estimated 40 percent of the population in squatter areas is not known, but assuming there are some economies of scale in municipal operations, the increase might be about K 3 per capita or approximately K 1.15 million. Rate levies from those being serviced might amount to about K 150,000. In addition it should then be possible to levy property taxes on commercial activities which are at present not assessed. Assuming that rents on council housing are raised to eliminate any need for subsidization from other accounts an increase of 35 percent in rates would be needed to cover the deficit. In fact this might well be possible in Lusaka since rate levies in the city are 40-50 percent below those in other municipalities. Such cost offsets may be more difficult in the mining centers where mine townships are not contained within the municipalities and where the squatter population makes up 30 percent or more of the total. 4.48 At present the personal levy is assessed at rates from K 1.25 per year for those earning K 120 to K 200 per year, rising to K 20.00 on incomes of K 1,000 or over. If this were raised at income levels above K 1,000 to 2 percent, it would cease to be regressive. 1/ At the same time, since average 1/ It should be noted that incomes are also subject to the national income tax so that the overall tax system may not be regressive. - 43 - 1972 earnings of all non-agricultural employees were K 1,375, it would more than double the yield of the personal levy. This would clearly be more equitable than raising the overall rate levy. In fact either changing the personal levy in this way, or eliminating it, would make the local tax system more equitable. 4.49 The mining towns would also almost certainly benefit on balance if the mining properties became taxable, and it is assumed that the central government will continue to pay grants to local councils in lieu of rates on government property. 4.50 Present government policy of removing housing subsidies and grants to local authorities, attempting to design squatter upgrading and site and services schemes so as to recover development costs is likely to have a regressive impact within the present financial system. Most of these costs will be borne by the lower income groups. Additional revenue could be raised by increasing property taxes and this would spread the cost onto business enterprises as well as individuals. However it would be more equitable if the personal levy could be levied at a proportionate rate on annual incomes over K 1,000. Conversely equity would probably be improved if the personal levy were abolished and the revenue recovered from increased property taxes. On redistributive grounds some changes in utility charges might also be considered. 1/ 4.51 On balance therefore it would appear that, if average real incomes in the municipalities do not fall, it should be possible for. them to cover the costs of future development from their own resources, assuming that government and mining properties carry their share of the tax burden. The situation will be most difficult in Livingstone and possible to a lesser extent in Ndola where there are no mining properties to increase the tax base and also in Kabwe where the high current squatter population will constitute a burden. Livingstone and Kabwe would clearly be squeezed if the Rate Limitation Grants were eliminated without any compensating changes being allowed. Before any major steps are taken in this direction it is recommended that the whole question of municipal government finance in Zambia be reviewed in some detail to determine the effects of different changes in policy. B. The Townships 4.52 There are at the present time eleven Townships in Zambia. One of these, Kafue, with a population of 16,000 is located about 20 miles south of Lusaka and is essentially a new industrial suburb. Five of the remainder are in Southern Province and are agricultural service centers located along the rail line from Lusaka to Livingstone. The remaining five are located in the non line-of-rail provinces, four of them being provincial capitals. 4.53 These towns are small in comparison with the municipalities. The average size of the five non line-of-rail townships is 11,400 persons. Charac- teristically, the towns are essentially administrative centers and government, 1/ See Annex IV. - 44 - national and local, is both the major source of employment and owner of housing. 1/ Most of the housing in the townships,other than the publicly-owned stock,is of low quality and of pole and dagga or sun-dried brick construction. All of the townships have piped water systems and partial sewerage systems. The mission visited Kasama, Mansa and Chipata. All three of these townships have recently completed,or have in progress,extensions to water supply systems and Mansa and Chipata are constructing major sewerage systems. 4.54 The townships are in most instances comprised of state land within areas predominantly held under traditional tribal rights. This means that, outside the township, planning control does not exist; and occupation rights to a particular site are given by the village headmen and are normally verbal. This is not the situation within the township, where written leases are needed, ground rent has to be paid, and buildings have to be to an approved standard. As a result, a number of the townships have "suburban" squatter villages just outside their boundaries which have expanded as individuals working in or primarily depending on the township have settled in them, frequently making use of such services as the township water supply. Site and Service Schemes 4.55 Site and service schemes have been operational for a number of years, but progress has in most instances been very slow. There appear to be a number of reasons for this: (a) The small population means that the townships are unable to employ a wide range of skills among their staff. Site and services schemes are generally part of the responsibility of the Community Development Officer (normally of assistant level) who has a variety of other duties with community organizations and little aptitude for housing. (b) The small size of the schemes does not provide an adequate demand to justify the establishment of building material stores as in the municipalities. This, and the long distances which materials such as doors, window frames etc. have to be transported, means that their cost is about 50 percent more than in the major centers. In addition, the schemes (except at Mongu) have been of the fully serviced type and thus bear heavy ground rents. They are generally sites which were included in the 1968 Housing Pro- gramme and the earlier provisions, i.e. including a K 72 housing loan still apply. Since there are few persons, other than Govern- ment employees (who are largely housed by Government in any case), who have adequate funds to build under such conditions, demand for these plots has been low and appears to be confined to local small businessmen and those with some capital, retired schoolteachers, other Government employees or miners. 1/ For a more detailed discussion of the largest of these townships, Chipata, see Annex II.B. - 45 - (c) In most instances it. is possible for individuals to squat on land adjacent to the township and thus avoid the heavier costs of building on site and services schemes. 4.56 Nevertheless, several townships have opened second phases of their 1968 site and service programs in the past two years. Thus, in Chipata a second site was opened in 1971 with 32 plots. By mid-1973 four houses had had been completed and construction was proceeding on a further six. Mansa has a scheme dating from 1971 with 120 plots, 20 of which have been allocated and of these,seven actually have houses under construction. A scheme of 138 plots was opened in early 1973 in Kasama but no applications had been received six months later and there were still six unallocated plots out of a total of 66 on the earlier scheme dating from 1967. All of these schemes had plots complete with ablution blocks, representing an investment of K400-K500 per plot. 4.57 The SNDP proposed that public house construction be continued by the townships and rural councils (see Table 21). In addition, site and service schemes are proposed which would constitute a major increase in the existing efforts. Thus, in the four non line-of-rail townships excluding Mongu, currently about 425 plots have been serviced, 240 allocated and 130 houses completed in 5-6 years. The SNDP program calls for an additional 1500 plots in these four towns. Clearly, unless major changes are made in the operation of the schemes, these targets will not be achieved. Thus the major proportion of the schemes will have to be communally serviced in order to reduce monthly charges. There has been considerable resistance to this in the Township Councils largely because it has been felt that individual water and sewer connections are the normal standard in the municipalities and that a similar standard should apply in the townships. The increased use of "basic" schemes in the municipalities could thus have a useful side effect in persuading the townships to adopt similar standards for their schemes. 4.58 In addition to the question of standards, a considerable strength- ening of local execution capacity would be required. One alternative would be to place the township and other rural schemes under the control of a Lusaka- based agency, e.g. National Housing Authority. This will create problems of supervision because of the distances involved and will also give the impression that these schemes are another project decided from Lusaka. Because of the nature of these schemes, it is essential that they obtain local support. It is noticeable that the program in Mongu which is reported to be the most successful 1/, was based upon a relocation of a group of households and local community involvement was considerable from the start, services were communal and costs kept low. In contrast, local interest in site and service schemes in the other townships was lukewarm at best. 4.59 A greater degree of local control of programs of this type would be in accordance with the recommendations of the Simmance Report. 2/ Consider- ation might be given at the Provincial level to combining responsibility for 1/ See W. Concklin, Housing Problems in Zambia. Mimeo. Nov. 1971 pp. 125-6. 2/ Discussed in Chapter I. - 46 - housing, including self-help sites, and water supply. Responsibility for the latter is currently divided between the Department of Water Affairs in the Ministry of Rural Development and the Buildings Branch Division of the Ministry of Power, Transport and Works. Housing and site and service programs would therefore be drawn up on a provincial basis for the range of non-municipal settlements within the Province, and could be co-ordinated with the village regrouping program. 4.60 The limited potential for town development in the provinces on the basis of nationally oriented industry has been discussed in Chapter 3. It was indicated that growth of urban centers will be based upon development of regional resources. 1/ Provincial programs related to site and services and village regrouping would involve relatively small contracts of a relatively simple nature. As such they could be valuable in the development of local contracting capacity and encourage existing small-scale building materials industry, e.g., brick and block making, fabrication of window frames. 4.61 For these reasons it would appear desirable in the longer term to aim to establish at the provincial level a single department for development of settlements. This agency would be responsible for construction of infra- structure, planning and community development functions. However, it is clear that in the immediate future insufficient suitably qualified staff could be recruited to enable such provincial offices to function satisfactorily even allowing for redeployment of certain staff now working in urban centers. Township Finance 4.62 The financial position and gross expenditures for three townships have been summarized in Tables 19 and 20. 2/ The financial position of the three townships reviewed was more difficult than the larger jurisdictions. Net expenditures in one township, Mazabuka, were much higher than elsewhere and the reason for this is not clear. Expenditures of the other two do not appear out of line with other centers. All three had lower revenues than the cities and municipalities because of lower property tax receipts. This is a result of the low tax rate which they are allowed to levy. Since the per capita receipts from the personal levy are essentially in the same range for all three localities, it is not clear that income levels in the townships (as opposed to rural areas) are much below those in the larger centers. Data from the 1966-68 Budget Survey also indicated no major difference. 3/ This suggests 1/ Annex II discusses such developments in Eastern Province. 2/ These are discussed in greater detail in Annex IV. 3/ See Annex I. - 47 - that there may be scope for raising rates in the townships by 30-50 percent. The current system, with the revenue shortfall made up by deficiency grants, in effect provides a cash grant to those living in the townships and it is not clear whether this is necessary. Despite the deficiency grants of between K3.20 and K9.20 however, two of the township councils had a substantial deficit over the year. - 48 - CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.01 This report has shown the high degree of spatial concentration of the Zambian economy in the eight major urban centers. These urban centers are characterized by high levels of employment and income. The economy as a result is highly dualistic with a predominantly "modern" urban sector, dominated by wage employment and a semi-subsistence oriented rural economy. Government policy is concerned to reduce this sharp duality and its resultant economic and social disparities. 5.02 However, as indicated in Chapter 3, the opportunities for dispers- ing industrial or commercial activity, currently concentrated in the main urban centers, are limited. In any event, this would have somewhat limited impact since the decentralized activity would in most instances be of an enclave nature, generating little local spin-off. Local linkages might be increased by combining such development with establishment of a corporate, more capital intensive agriculture. Agricultural structure is outside the scope of this report, but it might be noted that Zambian experience with State ranches has not been encouraging. Current policy is, in any event, primarily aimed at increasing the productivity of small-scale agriculture and the development of urban centers in the non line-of-rail provinces will be principally dependent upon this agricultural base, i.e., development will be from the bottom up. 5.03 In the urban areas, if the rate of growth of the female labor force is as rapid as has been projected, the informal sector will have to expand rapidly if male employment is to be maintained at its current level. In fact, a rapid rate of growth of small-scale indigenous enterprises will act to reduce the degree of dualism in the urban economy. Artificial con- straints to reduce rural-urban migration would be counterproductive in this sense,and the use of such policies in earlier periods was a contributory factor to the current divisions. In fact, a policy of positive encouragement of Zambian small business in urban areas, although it might run some risk of increasing migration rates, could yield considerable returns. Potentially, the opportunities in the urban areas are much greater than in rural areas where the major problem of entrepreneurs supported by Rucom 1/ is the lack of local markets. 1/ Rucom Industries, Ltd., is a subsidiary of the Industrial Development Corporation of Zambia, Ltd. (INDECO), the state industrial holding corporation. Rucom has the specific responsibility for promoting the growth of industry and small-scale entrepreneurs in rural areas. - 49 - 5.04 The current switch of emphasis from large scale corporate or public housing (contractor constructed) to self-help provision could be a powerful stimulus to small scale entrepreneurs. The report has shown that the aver- age urban household can. afford to construct a simple dwelling on a pre- pared plot. However, the report has shown that at the present time housing construction on prepared serviced sites is only one-third the rate necessary to meet growth in household numbers. In other words, the majority of new households have to provide for themselves in unplanned, unserviced and un- authorized squatter settlements. While GRZ is attempting to improve this situation, clearly a major effort will be required. 5.05 At the same time, the mutual dependence of urban and agricultural development in the rural provinces has been stressed. This implies a re- gionally based development effort in these areas. The report has suggested that rregional programs be linked to major transport corridors with principal initial emphasis in Eastern and Northern Provinces. 5.06 Before proceeding to recommendations for future Bank involvement in the Zambian urban sector, it is important to first discuss several major unresolved policy questions which condition proposals for an urban and regional development strategy and which have been implicit throughout much of the preceding report. The mission encountered these questions frequently during discussions with Zambian officials at both national and local levels. Their resolution by the Government should, in some cases, be preconditions for future Bank intervention in urban and regional development projects. The questions fall into two broad categories: (i) development policy issues and (ii) urban policy issues. A. Development Policy Problems The Locus of Development Planning and Project Implementation 5.07 A major policy problem deserving immediate attention by Zambian authorities is determination of the locus and process of development planning and project implementation. The report has outlined the evolution of the national, provincial and district administrative system, including the com- plicated institutional framework which is beset by problems of overlapping responsibilities, unclear functions, and a proliferation of executive posi- tions which hinder effective planning and implementation. Simplification of the present project implementation machinery in the near future should be given the highest priority. 5.08 A more effective definition of the planning process also involves a new disposition of civil service personnel. The concentration of trained economists in a single ministry negates any serious, professional efforts to analyze development problems from below, at the level of the PDCs, DDCs, or councils in urban areas. Zambia must decide whether it wishes "development from below," with the full political implications of participatory democracy, or whether it wishes instead to continue with the present de facto centralized - 50 - planning machinery. Clearly, national policy must be decided at the national level, but official promises of decentralized decision-making will only raise false expectations unless they are followed by redefinition of the roles of the development committees. This is particularly true under the SNDP with the new emphasis on the work of the village productivity committees and ward development committees. In addition, unless a greater degree of decision making can be shifted to the provincial level or below the rationale for the decisions which are made will become increasingly blurred to those at the grass-roots level. Development committees will thus lack any clear framework in which to develop proposals, and dialogue among the respective groups will become increasingly difficult. Central-Local Fiscal Relations 5.09 A second national policy problem centers on the tensions in central- local fiscal relations. This problem is in part reflected in the previous discussion of the locus of planning and project implementation. However, some of the basic tenets in national fiscal policy deserve re-examination insofar as they influence patterns of urban and regional development. Although local authorities should be required to work within the national financial frame- work, even with some of the uncertainties implicit in that framework, they should also be given enough discretionary power to manage and develop their jurisdictions in a financially efficient manner. Thus, the release of central funds, local discretion over some capital expenditures, changes in local prop- erty tax administration, and budgetary planning should be redefined to permit local government to function more effectively. The shortage of trained man- power in the Ministry of Local Government and Housing undermines all central intentions to "control" local development. The result is simply delay. This situation is most dramatic when one considers the wide responsibility of the ministry in covering three cities, five municipalities, 11 townships, and 44 rural districts. An increased proportion of decisions could be taken at the provincial or municipal level, following guidelines sent out from Lusaka. B. Urban Policy Problems Land 5.10 Considerable uncertainty has been created by recent decisions on land tenure and property valuation. All land formerly held under freehold tenure has been converted to 100 year leaseholds. Land and real property now may be transferred only with the permission of the President. Site value taxation is being abolished, but there are no clear guidelines as to how improvements should now be valued. The immediate effect is a relative shift of the tax burden from commercial to residential property. The prin- cipal intent of policy is to eliminate speculation in land and property and to prevent individuals from obtaining large capital gains as urban growth occurs and to be in accord with traditional Zambian concepts of land tenure. It is not clear whether these objectives will be realized. It is recommended that a comprehensive review of policy objectives and alternatives be carried out before final decisions are made in this complex field. - 51 - Public Finance 5.11 (a) The Mining Townships. In Kabwe and all the copperbelt towns, except Ndola, there are in fact two jurisdictions: the municipality and the townships operated by the mining companies for their employees. The companies provide public utilities and other services to the residents. Mine emplovment is increasing slowly, and therefore the bulk of the growth of each urban area is being borne by the municipality without benefit of the tax base which would be provided by the mining properties. The concept of the company township in this form also appears to be incongruous within the framework of the principles of local government as expressed by the Simmance Commission 1/. It is recommended that a study group be established to review the legal and financial implications of incorporating the mine townships into the municipalities for administrative and taxation purposes. 2/ 5.12 (b) Sources of Municipal Finance. The expansion of urban areas through site and service schemes and the upgrading of squatter settlements, both of which initially make relatively modest contributions to property tax levies, will place an additional burden upon local revenues as central gov- ernment grants are reduced. Changes in housing policy, to eliminate subsidies on council owned housing and to recover development costs from site and ser- vices schemes, will tend to bear most heavily on lower income groups. It is recommended that the structure of local government finance be reviewed in detail and in particular that consideration be given to increasing the per- sonal levy on incomes over K1000 per year so that it becomes proportionate to income. This would both provide additional revenue to local authorities and reduce the relative burden on lower income groups. The Role of Municipal Government Institutions 5.13 A third unresolved urban Dolicv problem requiring action by the Zam- bian government is redefinition of the role of municipal government institu- tions in the urban development process. Earlier sections have referred to the general problem of decentralization and central-local fiscal relations. At the level of individual urban areas, however, it is essential for Zambian local institutions to play a greater role in planning and implementing urban development projects. Thus at the present time all physical planning of Zambian towns is contracted out to private consultants or the National Pousing Authority, instead of building a local capability to manage urban problems for the long 1/ Although this is somewhat mitigated by the fact that the State is now 4; major shareholder in the mining companies. 2/ The Minister of Local Government and housing established a Working Party in 1975 to inquire into this question. - 52 - term. While there is a recognized shortage of skilled Zambian manpower in this field, there are, nevertheless, many trained expatriates now working at the local level who should be given the responsibility for training Zambian counterparts. At the present time, these expatriates participate only mini- mally in the planning of towns they have worked in for more than a decade. This problem not only requires central acceptance of the need to permit local personnel to participate in project planning and implementation, but also involves some structural changes within municipal administrative institutions. The traditional British division into departments for treasury, engineer and community development deserves reform in order to make municipal administra- tion more oriented towards developmental tasks. C. Recommendations for Bank Involvement in the Urban Sector 5.15 The following recommendations for Bank involvement in urban and regional development are divided into two parts: proposals for (a) regional centers and (b) the major urban centers. Development of Regional Centers 5.15 Long-Term Needs: Although a goal of development strategy in Zambia is to promote growth away from the major urban centers, this report has shown that such growth is unlikely to be based on industrial development. Major emphasis must be placed on developing agricultural service and processing centers. However, in view of low population densities, this development should be related to a very few transportation corridors. 1/ A precondition of these efforts should be improvement of the system of decentralized admin- istration. Provincial capitals must be given sufficient planning and finan- cial authority to implement regional development projects. The importance of provincial administration is particularly important in view of the size of townships, which require small-scale, basic site and services schemes. A Bank project would involve efforts in several centers and should, therefore, be coordinated at the provincial level. Management of these efforts from Lusaka would contradict official intentions to improve provincial capacity to implement projects. However, shortages of personnel prevent the adoption of this approach on a country-wide basis. Efforts will have to be concen- trated on selected provinces and a phased approach taken to building up ca- pacity in the different provinces. 5.16 Projects: The construction of the TAZARA railroad enhances the possibilities for development in the eastern half of the country. A series of ongoing efforts provide a potential base for a developmental effort for these regions. These involve Central, Northern and Eastern Provinces. Pro- vincial planning or coordinating units as proposed in the SNDP should be established in these provinces to formulate development programs and to identify project components. An urban project covering two to three centers in each of two provinces could be prepared for appraisal in FY 77. These 1/ See Map IBRD 1099R. - 53 - could comprise 3,000-4,000 housing sites, with a major emphasis on low-cost communally serviced sites, basic urban infrastructure and community facilities. The Major Urban Centers 5.15 Short-Term Needs: This report has demonstrated that, for historical reasons,urban development in Zambia has been highly concentrated in the Copper- belt and along the line-of-rail. Little can or should be done to greatly affect the growth of the major centers in the short term. Consequently, the rate of housing and infrastructure development will have to be significantly increased if population growth is to be accommodated by anything other than expansion of already large squatter settlements in the major towns. However, successful expansion of the housing effort presupposes (a) the development of adequate capacity at the municipal level and (b) that potential scheme occupants can afford to meet the costs of housing construction. The report has indicated that it appears likely that an increasing proportion of urban employment will be "informal" or small-scale activities. An expanded program of self-help housing would be a major factor in promoting the growth of small- scale Zambian enterprise both directly through the demand for supplies and contractual services in housing construction, and potentially through creation of sites and markets for enterprises producing and marketing consumer goods. 5.16 Projects: It is, therefore, recommended that a principal element in future Bank involvement in urban development in Zambia be the expansion of current site and services programs and upgrading of squatter areas in the cities and municipalities. These efforts should focus on areas outside of Lusaka, where a project is currently being appraised. This project should be managed at the municipal level, as in the case of the Lusaka project, and should continue to place major emphasis on low-cost forms of development, and the training of Zambian personnel in technical and community development fields, and the provision of sites for the establishment of small-scale manu- facturing and retailing enterprises should also constitute a significant com- ponent of the project. 5.17 A project could involve two or three centers. Kitwe, which has a relatively small but rapidly increasing squatter population, and Ndola, with a fairly vigorous site and service program but also a significant squatter problem, would be principal candidates. Table 1: ZAMBIA - SECTORAL DISTRIBUTION OF GROSS DOIMESTIC PRODUCT 1965 AND 1974 (AT 1965 PRICES) 1965 1974 Agriculture 14.o 12.9 Mining 41.8 24.0 Manufacturing 6.9 14.1 Construction 5.9 4.1 Electricity, Gas and Water 0.8 3.2 Wholesale and Retail Trade 11.6 11.9 Transport and Communications 4.7 7.0 Hotels, Finance and Business Services 5.1 8.1 Community and Personal Services 9.2 14.7 100.0 100.0 Source: Central Statistical Office: Monthly Digest of Statistics, June 1975. Table 2: ZAMBIAN CITIES, MUNICIPALITIES AND TOWNSHIPS - POPULATION GROWTH 1963-1974 Population Rate of Growth Percent per Annum 1963 1969 1974 1963-69 1969-74 Cities Lusaka 123,510 262,425 401,000 13.4 8.9 Kitwe 144,330 232,070 292,000 8.2 4.7 Ndola 92,691 159,786 229,000 9.5 7.5 Municipalities Chingola 93,682 148,154 190,000 7.9 5.1 Kabwe 39,522 65,974 98,000 9.4 8.2 Livingstone 33,026 45,243 58,000 5.3 5.1 Luanshya 75,332 96 ,282 121,v000 4.2 4.7 Mufulira 80,609 107,802 136,000 5.0 4.8 Townships Chipata 8,527 13,500 16,585 8.0 4.2 Choma 6,940 11,940 10,413 9.5 -2.7 Kasama 6,734 8,924 16,412 4.8 13.0 Mansa 5,228 9,012 7,937 9.5 -2.6 Mazabuka 5,406 6,274 10,869 2.5 11.6 Mongu 4,279 10,107 11,859 15.4 3.3 Monze 3,238 4,181 5,131 4.4 4.0 Kafue 2,043 12,500 19,625 35.5 9.4 Source: C.S.O. Sample Census of Pbpulation, Preliminary Report, February lYO5. Table 3: DISTRIBUTTION OF NATIONAL URBAN AND RURAL POPUJLATION BY PROVINCE, 1969 Urban Rural Tbtal Province Percent 1/ Percent Percent Central 28.4 12.6 17.2 Copperbelt 61.6 2.2 19.7 Southern 6.2 14.8 12.3 Eastern 1.1 17.5 12.7 Luapula 0.7 11.6 8.4 Northern 1.2 18.9 13.7 Northwestern 0.0 8.2 5.8 W4estern 0.8 14.2 10.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Central Statistical Office. Census of Population and Housing, 1969. First Report, 1970. 1/ Cities, Municipalities and Townships. Table 4: PROPORTION OF TOTAL ZAMBIAN EMPLOYMENT IN LINE-OF-RAIL PROVINCES BY SECTOR, 1968 Copper Total Central -belt Sub Southern Line- Province Province Total Province of-Rail Private Agriculture 41.4 7.8 49.2 39.8 89.0 Mining and Quarrying 7.2 91.9 99.1 0.6 99.7 Manufacturing 32.4 51.2 83.6 13.2 96.8 Construction 35.5 58.5 94.o 3.1 97.1 Electricity, Gas & Water 6.o 94.0 100.0 - 100.0 Commerce 30.1 h9.4 79.5 7.3 86.8 Transportation 41.3 52.8 94.1 5.2 99.3 Services 32.3 40.9 73.2 11.2 8h.4 Total 27.1 58.1 85.2 9.6 94.8 Public Central Government 33.5 16.9 50.4 12.8 63.2 Public Corporations 40.0 23.5 63.5 28.8 92.3 Local Government 16.2 27.9 h4.1 11.0 55.1 Total 30.7 20.1 50.8 14.3 65.1 Total Enployment 28.5 43.5 72.0 11.4 83.4 Source: Annex Table II.5 Table 5: DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH OF POPULATION BY PROVINCE 1963-69 and 1969-76 (THOUSANDS) Province Population Net Tncrease Net Migration 1963 1969 1974 1963-69 1969-77 1963-69 1969-74 Central 490 707 920 + 217 + 213 + 135 + 95 Copperbelt 520 809 1,046 + 287 + 237 + 201 + 101 SUB TOTAL 1,010 1,516 1,966 + 506 + 450 + 336 + 196 Southern 477 503 540 + 26 + 37 - 54 - 34 SUBTOTAL ) Line-of-Rail) 1,487 2,019 2,506 + 532 + 487 + 282 + 162 Non Line-of-Rail Provinces 2,023 2,081 2,189 + 58 + 108 - 282 - 162 TOTAL 3,511 4,loo 4,695 + 589 + 695 0 0 Source: Central Statistical Office. Census of Population and Housing, 1969. First Report, 1970, and 1974 Sample Census. Table 6: MIGR4AT.RATIOS, 1969 V/ Ratio of Outmigrants Ratio of Inmigra 5t s- to population born to Outmigrants_ in Province Province Males Females Males Females Central 3.30 2.75 0.16 0.15 Copperbelt 6.15 5.23 G.14 0.14 Southern 1.04 0.81 0.15 0.13 Eastern 0.0S 0.11 0.30 0.23 Luapula 0.33 C.34 0.24 0.1
Группа Всемирного банка · Pre-2003 Economic or Sector Report
Zambia - Urban sector survey (Vol. 1 of 2) : Main text
Открыть оригинал документа
Полный текст размещён на сайте публикующей организации. lawenc.com индексирует метаданные и ведёт на официальный источник.
Полный текст
Основные сведения
Организация
Группа Всемирного банка
Тип документа
Pre-2003 Economic or Sector Report
Страна
Замбия
Источник
Всемирный банк