Iraq - Current economic position and prospects

R,,S '-,".tT i,G n1p,,3 I Report No. 419a-lRQ T ___________________ Current Economic Position and Prospects of REPORTS DESK Iraq FILE COP ONE WEEK October 9, 1974 Europe, Middle East and North Africa Regional Office Not for Public Use U Document of the internationat Bank for Reconstruction and Development International Development Association This report was prepared for official use only bv the Bank Group It may not be published, quoted or cted without Bank Group authorization The Bank GCroup does not accept responsibthty tor the accuracy or completeness of the report  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Until December 1971 Iraqi Dinar (ID) US $2.80 US $ = ID0.357 December 1971 to February 1973 ID = US $3.04 US $ = ID 0.329 Since February 1973 ID = US $3.38 US $ = ID 0.296  CURRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF IRAQ Table of Contents Page No. COUNTRY DATA CHART MAP SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i-iii I. EOONOMIC STRUCTURE AND GROWTH ...................... 1 Legacy of the Past ............................ 1 Economic Growth ....... ........ . .3 Prices, Wages and Income Distribution ......... 5 Population, Employment and Manpower ........... 6 II. PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC SECTORS ......................... 7 Oil Industry ..................*.........*......... 7 Agriculture ............................... 11 Non-Oil Industry .............................. 15 Other Sectors .............. 18 III. DEVELOPMENT PLANNING ............ .... ......... 20 Development Administration ... 20 Plan Formulation, 1950-74 ...................... 21 Plan Implementation .. ..... ... . . 0... ........ . . ... 23 The Current Plan 1970-7 ..................... 24 The Outlook for Planning ...................... IV. PUBLIC FIANCES .................. 26 Present Budgetary System ................26 Government Revenues ** * * **** *** * 27 Government Expenditures . 27 The Consolidated Budgetary Position .. ....... 28 Recent Changes in Fiscal Policy ............... 29 V. MONEY AND CREDIT ********........................... 29 Trends in Money, Credit and Prices ............ 30 Monetary Policies ..... ........................ 32  Table of Contents (Continued) Page No. VI. FOREIGN TRADE AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS .. ........ 34 The Balance of Payments ... ................. . 36 External Debt ..............** ..****... ** ***** 37 Exchange and Trade Policies ................... 37 VII. PROSPECTS ......... ....... * ** e* 38 STATISTICAL APPENDIX This report was prepared by Messrs. O. Maiss and A. Zaman who visited Iraq in November 1973.  COUNTRY DATA - IRAQ AREA POPULATION DENSITY 73,7,522 km2 10.1 million (1972) 23 per kn,2 Rate of growth: 3.3% (1967-72) 81 per km of arable land POPULATION CFHRACTERISTICS (1970) HEALTH (1971) Crude birth rate (per 1,000 49 Population per physician 3,090 Crude death rate (per 1,000) 14 Population per hospital bed 530 Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births) 1o4 Life expectancy at birth (years) 53 NUTRITION (1964-66) EDUCATION (1969) Caloric intake as of requirements 89 Adult literacy rate (%) 26 Per capita protein intake (grams per day) 61 Primary school enrollment ratio (%) 68 GNP PER CAPITA-/: US $370 (1971) GROSS-NATIONAL PRODUCT (1971) ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (%, constant prices) US $ Mln. % 19M-69 1 GNP at market prices 3,550 100 6 6 Gross domestic investment 616 17 2 17 Gross national savings 803 22 h 11 Current acceomt balance 187 5 Exports of goods and NFS 1,670 47 3 ImEports of goods and NFS 880 25 2 9 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY (1971) Value Added Employment Value Added per Worcer T-S $ Mlln. J- M ln. ,%US $X Agriculture T.X 420 25 Industry 1,950 50 .25 10 7,800 516 Services 1,350 34 go 35 1,500 100 Total 3,920 100 2.59 100 1,510 100 GOVERNMENT FINANCE (1971/72) MONEY, CREDIT AND PRICES US $ Mln. % of GDP 1968 1973 Current receipts 1,416 36 (ID Mln. outstanding, end period) Current expenditure 1,040 26 Money supply 227 369 Current surplus 376 10 Bank credit to Government 108 219 Capital expenditure 336 9 Bank credit to Private 63 90 External assistance (net) 58 1 (Index numbers, 1962 = 100) Wholesale prices 109 125 Cost of living 106 135 BALANCE OF PAIENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS 1970 1971 1972 Average 1970-72 ( --- SDR Mln.----- ) SDR Mln. % Exports 628 788 735 Crude oil 650 90 Imports -506 -693 -654 All other 68 10 Invisibles and transfers, net -28 -16 37 Total 715 100 Errors and omissions -121 -77 -64 EXTERNAL DEBT (1972) Balance on current account -27 2 54 E- $ Mln. Total debt outstanding (end year) 460 Long-tens capital, net 25 79 95 of which undisbursed 141 Change in reserves 2 -81 -149 Debt service ratio: 3.3% Reserve position (end of year) gross reserves 487 631 753 IBRD LENDING (December 31 1973) net reserves 452 592 705 M Disbursed 25.h Undisbursed Total 1 1/ World Bank Atlas, 1973.   ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE CENTRAL PLANNING SYSTEM |Nhatroanl Canner for Consult-| a ancv and ManagE mrent PLANNING ROAR0 Selomenr Steering Camenitee Iraq Speort can ont and | l X ~~~~~~~~Standards Gegannzanron | Steering Cornmitee N |fatrnnar Center f o OEnga-e M fistee n Plann-ng o an Naon C ornpu tersta Cete Economic Ag,cuoa S deroa n Plrnninonard of rhe Planning Lega DaPtne Mrnisern | l Dadarameet Denartment Depamenen S Dep SmntD onDal Deparnent jProgram and f !Maintenance gagd Legal Srudia# O ats Follpop | Anma n nOtjl ad l jovrmn d Labon Fnrca Oaorcsron Sectmen l Oaaratioa e1and Rapares and Anal psi, P ngrount an S lnsg l 1Tasottrn| 1 e e ssg ect or Corrrntracrs Clot| Pubrc Relations PaJollawsue gad | Weights aed | Agrclua no ro arlc 0 Marn an |a* S arnge gsrf:catinnn Sactinonl Ro 1 ecoarain ge Sandardd P POduCt On | Appasl I 1 Arrnpr psn clnI 1 tm '|Oocornenaatron Aorheatinatinngyp l H - Sc:o - >ocan,ga Trninto an Fmanialrrg Sarn OooumsOtatsO Planning Proreertton|1 oumnato P Areannel Lae|n 1 ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ln rcaaar Onco umenWation | Wnrld Sarl 9-60hRIh   r -~~~~~ \-~ -- (0~ / /l I // ' ,, ' ., 't/X"~~~~~~~~ | ~ ~~~~~~~~~~ N (