R"ll R" flrRa FILE tsUT I DOCUMENT OF INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Not For Public Use Report No. 206a-GU W.MORANDUM ON RECRNT RrONOMTC DEVELOPMENT AND PROSPECTS OF I,TTATVMAT A Deptember 2.5 1±11. Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report. rtTTDDT' TITV VrATTTTTAT QWTrrCq 1 Quetzal (Q) = 1 U.S. dollar kiLafti Ur ADDnZTV_Lft1UaOl AID - U.S. Agency for International Development, AVIArECA - Guatemalan Airlines ANACAFE - National Coffee Association RANDEbA - National Bank for Agricultural Development BCIE - Central American Bank for Economic Integration CACM - Central American Common Market ORFINA - National Finance Corporation EXMIBAL - Company for the Exploration and Exploitation of the Izabal Mines FEGUA - Guatemalan Railroads FYDEP - Peten Development Agency GUATEL - Guatemala Telecommunications Administration GUATEXPRO - Guatemalan Export Promotion 1DB - Inter-American Development Bank IGSS - Guatemalan Social Security Institute INDE - National Electricity Institute INDECA - National Institute for the Commercialization of Agricultural Products INFOM - Municipal Development Institute INFOP - Institute for the Development of Production INGUAT - Guatemalan Tourism Institute INTA - National Institute for Agrarian Transformation INTECAP - Technical Education Institute INVI - National Housing Institute FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 This report is based on the findings of a mission in March-April 1973 to Guatemala by Mr. Guillermo Castaneda-Mungi. It also draws on the mission of Mr. Richard Webb in January 1973. GUATEIALA TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Number COUNTRY DATA MAP SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS........ i I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. ECONOMIC DBVELOPENT 1 III. PUBLIC FINANCE 3 Central Government Ourrent Revenue.......................3 Central Government Current Expenditure...................5 Central Government Investment Expenditure................6 Rest of the Public Sector................................8 IV. MONEY AND BANKING 8 V. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 11 Exports.................................................11 Imports..................................................13 Current Account Financing...............................14 VI. THE INCIDENCE OF GOVERNMENT POLICY ON POVERTY 15 VII. PROSPECTS (1973-79) 16 STATISTICAL APPENDIX Population National Accounts Public Finance Balance of Payments External Public Debt. Money and Credit COUNTAY DATA - GUATEMALA ARFA POPULATION DENSITY 108,900 km2 3.6million (mid-1972) D1.3 per 2 POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (1970) HEALTH (1970) Crude Birth Hate (per 1,000) 46 Population per physician L 4,030 Crud Death Iate (ner 1,000) lh Population per hospital bed 420 Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live births) 92 INCMEDITRBUIO DSr Td' lT ION 111 7 AI n--- (Ifr.'rr Q41 Nti 'f of national income, lowest quintile .. % owned by top 10 of owners 76.55 highest quintile .. % owned by smallest 10% of owners 0.45 ACCESS TO PIPED WATER ( ) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (1965) '4' paatn-ra --.. 4 T ~ - _ - rural .. - rural 3 NUTRITION (1970) EDUUATION (1970) Calorie intake as % of requirements 82 Adult literacy rate A 38 Per caoita nrotein intake 51 Primary school enrollment 4 6 Uar, PER riAIT -Ia1 L7/ 0' U, ) GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (%, constant prices) TT 1 MloAo.4i - o.7n 107n-70 GNP at Market Prices 2,143.7 100 0 5.2 5.6 6.0 Gross Domestic investment 291.0 13.0 .4 4.0 6.8 Gross National Saving 283.4 13.2 6.4 8.9 6.1 Current Account Balance - 9.6 - 0.. Fxports of Goods, NFS 395.8 18.5 10.0 6.7 6.6 Imports of Goods, NFS 395.3 18.4 8.0 3.7 1.0 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1971 VaTue Added Tabor Ynoe2.1 V Az Par Work., US $ Ml. PaD. % us $ Agriculture 521.0 27.5 0.81 50.7 643 46.8 Industry 349.4 1.4 0.26 g/ 18.8 1,344 .97.8 Services 1,025.8 54.1 0.31 22.5 2,288 240.8 Total/Average 1,896.; 100.0 1.3b 100.0 1,367 100.0 GOVERNMENT FINANCE General Government Central Government (Q_M1n.)of_G_DP (Q 1-n.) / of GDP 197) 1972 19Ag.75 1Q79 IQ79 - G0AA-75 Current Receipts 249.2 11.4 11.3 184.2 8.4 8.6 Current Expenditure 215.0 9. 9.9 159.2 7.3 Current Surplus 34.2 I.T -11--7 1.1 1.1 Capital Expenditures 74.0 3.4 2.8 52.2 2.b 1.8 rxternal Assistance (net) 10.7 0.5 0.7 9.2 0.4 0.5 I/ The Per Capita GNP estimate is at 1970 market prices, calculated by the same conversion technique as the 1972 World Atlas. All other conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. 2/ Total labor force' unemnloved are allocated to secto of their norm1 MAnttpi 3/ Manufacturing industry. not available not applicable Page 2 of 2 COUNTRY DATA - GUATEMAIA MONEY, CREDIT and PRICES 1965 1969 1970 1971 1P2 (Million Quetzales outstanding end period) Money and Quasi Money 218.1 314.7 350.1 388.8 462.7 Bank Credit to Public Sector 61.1 06.0 68.4 95.6 136.4 Bank Credit to Private Sector 165.5 234.9 248.9 257.2 278.1 'Percentages or Index N mers) money and unasi Money As i of GDP 16,1 18.3 18.4 19.4 22.1 General Price Index (1963 - 100) 96.9 99.L 104.4 103.7 106.7 Annual percentage changes in: General Price Index 0.6 5.0 - 0.7 ).9 Bank Credit to Public Sector 1.9 3.6 39.8 4 2.7 1-:1nk Crdi to Prva- Seto .1 6,n . . BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1969-72) 1970 1971. 1972 U0S ;Lu. ? (Millions US 1) Coffee 96.b 12.6 Cotton 33.8 11.4 Fxports of Goode, NFS 349.6 340.7 395.8 Bananas R6.2 6.8 Imports of Goods, NS 30.7 368.9 395.3 Meat 15.5 5.2 Resource Gap (deficit - -) 0.9 -2'. 0.7 All other conmodities 130.1 44.0 Total 100.0 Interest Payments (net) - 3.6 - 6.8 - 4.3 Workers ' Remittances . . . EKTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31, 1972 Other Factor Payments (net) -29.5 -31.5 -34.8 Net Transfers 18.0 24.8 29.0 US $ M1n. Public Debt, inicl. guaranteed 190.5 Direct Foreign Investment 22.5 22.5 15.3 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt . Net MLT Borrowing 47.6 29.3 21.3 Total outstanding & Disbursed Disbursements 72.8 54.1 63.0 Amortization Z>.2 24.0 41.7 JDB SErVICE RATU 17or Lyn ' Subtotal ro 7 . 6 CanitAl Grants .I Other Capital (net) - 0.3 - 0.1 2.6 Other items n.e.i. -40.8 1.8 20.7 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 10.5 Increase in Feserves (+) 2=.4 1. 50.3 Non-Guaranteed Private Dabt Total outstanding & Disbursed Net Reserves (end year) 72.2 84.0 134.3 RATE OF EXCRATE IBRD/IDA LENDING, (April 30, 1973) (Milion US$): IBRD IDA US S 1,00 On2s 1 0 1 L0 iS $ 1.00 Ou.standing & Disbursed 23.6 Undisbursed D_. 7 This raze of exchange has Outstanding incl. Undisbursed 47.3 . prevailed since December 18, 1946. 1/ Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Goods and Non-iactor Services. not available not applicable BRD 10564 92 91' 90 89- AUGUST 1973 IB GUATEMALA M E X l C O Main roads Secondary roads -.. . ..- - Roilroods Airports +ODos Lagasra PorTs Departmeni boundories .-Intem~tonal bounderies P E T E N - ke Petâný Melchcr Mene10 17' I -tI.- . 20 40 60 80 LLberlod Sn -Fancisco KlLOMETERS 0 10 .20 30 40 5 Snto Toribo o MILES Poctun M E X l C O MEXICO Gv/F of -- -- -- -.7Honduras San Matol Iatan CP lO ATION OF j UPUERTO BARS H U E Hý U E T E la A N G O A L T A V E PA p A Z EXMIBAL PROJECT AREA s-'ANTO IO - -- S-n Felie DE CASTILL Lanquin : I. T A B A L E L Q UI CLH[ -acl El EST LOR A 8 A ATLL COBAN L KC ¯.- -A ~ A Z AE oae ANGO.I SALMA Z A P I' A 5ANNM R c O.)/ TOTNICAPAN SANTA CRUZ DEL QUICH E 5°LA UNION ZACAPA 15, TOTONICAPAN E L F R OGR E SO La Un,6n ronA H O N DU RAS T QUZALTNANGO lOL0 CHI ALTENANG G ATEMALA CHIQUIMULA Sep.ate UEATN IG SJALAPA H Q U l M U Ayula PalasAZATENANGO AN GUA I UTMA A P A EL S(lanco RETALHULJ EQUE E Al, U L E U LA LaM u JAMAICA ChmeioESCUINT LA Ayar,t a JTA O L Dem ocrac - -SnCnO O U I P IC a t b a SAN A ROSA A A 1A1 E s C J/ l N T L A Chqmlla JUt)TIA PA - 4*ElI Tecciate /I--\d3S,1' El SA LVA DO NI_ý.CAR AGU p A c iFC CFA N PaifcOea 9EL SALVADO RAp 921 91° 9 PAN,,MA SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1. Guatemala's rate of growth of GDP in real terms during the l960o was about 5.5 percent per annum on the average and, during the last two years, nearly 6.0 percent on the average. The population grew at 3.1 percent per annum from 1960 to 1970 and at about 3.3 percent per annum from_1970 to 1972. Thui per capita real GDP grew at 2 percent per annum from 190 to 1970 and at about ?15 percent during the last two years. However, the standard of living of rtral poor - who made up about 50 percent of the 5.62 million population at the end of 1972 - is unlikely to have improved. ii. The impact of government policy on poverty in the past was small due to the limited effort in relation to the extent and degree of poverty. The stability of the economy traditionally has been maintained through a cautious monetary and fiscal policy. Past governments have maintained relatively balanced budgets but only by limiting expenditures for social and development purposes. A substantially increased tax effort would be a precondition of a more agressive social and development policy. iii. The present administration took office in 1970 and adopted the 1971-75 plan (prepared by the previous Government) which contained ambitious programs aimed at fostering economic growth and raising the living standards of the poorer classes. This plan is being partially implemented. There have been substantial increases in the Government expenditure on the capital account in the last two years. Nevertheless, the level of expenditure on current account required to provide essential social services is still low. If the standard of living of the poorer groups is to be substantially increased, a very strong effort will be necessary. iv. Guatemala's growth is not, at present, constrained by insufficient imnort capacity. The balance of payments improved considerably in 1972 with net foreign reserves increasing by US $50 million, and the next four years hold very good prospects. Exports increased substantially due mainly to a good agricultural year for coffee, cotton and sugar, and the coming into production of the new banana plantations and continued growth in both the volume and price of beef exports. The large surplus in the balance of payments has created an unusual increase in the liouidity of the economy. The commercial banks liabilities to the public have increased substantially while their credit operations have grown much more slowly. Banks. Drevented by government regulations from transfering funds to other countries, are seeking clients for their excess funds. v. The overall economic prospects for the rest of the decade are good, The maior challenge for nublic nliv will be +.o channel a significnt part o. the economic resources into programs to benefit the poor and to strengthe.1 the inst.iAt.i ons and~ ;qpnt--i . ri-n i~rpt fr)-r +Ti. cz nim, ,yc-~ ____ __- - -- -- - --- -1 l_-~-* . U1iJI dI~de lk to be assisted by bilateral and international financial agencies. Since export pruspects over the medium term are also relatively favorable, balance of payent$ problems should not constrain such a development effort. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS OF GUATEMALA Chapter I: INTRODUCTION 1. Guatemala, one of the five countries forming the Central American Common Market, has the largest population and the most varied physical environ- ment among them. Mountains divide Guatemala into four main regions: the highlands, the Pacific coastal plain, the Atlantic area and the Pet&n. The various climates and the rich soils allow the cultivation of almost any type of agricultural product. There are deposits of nickel that will be of commercially exploited with the participation of IFC, marble quarries of good potential for exports and some exploration for oil is being done. Guatemala's natural beauties, climate, archeological monuments, folklore and proximity to the United States, give her a high potential for tourism development. 2. Most of the country's population and economic activity is in the highlands. The principal food crops - corn and beans - are grown here, and most of the coffee is grown on the southern highland slopes. Nearly all the major urban centers and most of the country's industrial activities are located in the highlands. The Pacific coastal plain produces cotton, sugarcane, cattle, rice and other tropical crops. The Atlantic area produces bananas and some coffee. The Peten, which is the northermost province, occupies about a third of the country's area but is largely unYneliteP. Itcon+i th+ mos important archeological monument of the Mayas and produces chicle qnd some tropical woods. 3. 1uqtemala's nopulation has been growing at, more than 3 nercent ner annum and now totals about 5.6 million. The most significant characteristic of the nonnul+.ion i.q it, . harn ethnic rliv-ision The nure Tnrlinn.s who mnke up about 50 percent of the total population, are economically, culturally and linguit.inaly spaannd+. from +.h rest of +.hP nonnition, that is mainly of mixed Spanish and Indian origin. A large part of the Indian population does not narticiDate in the monev economy. They qre engaged in subsistence agriculture and have a standard of living well below that of the rest of the economy. Chanter TT* rNjMTn DEVET.OPM7KT 4. During the last 12 years the economy has been growing at an increasing rate. From 190r to -1965, GDTPi-n reanl terms gr at 5.prceteranum from- 1965 to 1970, at 5.7 percent per annum. Most of the increase in output and 1970, the economy has been growing at about 5.9 percent per annum, although the growth of the,ii,atrn sector has slowed do,- in.cmaionwt h preceeding years. 5. The share of agriculture in GDP is 27 percent and the sector employs per en ofZiL~i the ai1 c U-*--, popZjUj .ul in. '-lie ag-L-u--L ULIrEL-L 1-c Wi VL r'l.OW Lai LIEL ~ L -2-- subJect to Sharn fluc+ation.q r1rn tn vqri Ati ons in wather and maket, cn tions for the crops. From 1966 to 1970 agricultural production grew at 4.5 percent per annum. This was achinvAd in nrt.by the strong grow+.h of cattle prodn+ifn for the export market. The rate of growth of agricultural production for domestic cnaonumptn (2 nn+ n onn"1m) wrce lhol b r .ow the rate nf cYrnrT.T+hr nf' mnil tion (3.1 percent per annum). In the last two years the rate of growth of agri- nl +n-1 n-rmnvoA, n-+- Qn .on nn +I-, nvmon+ n annum an the ovo-y mA i r to a large increase in the production of the export products. Due to the a,4vrc- w~,n. -the y 4 r cin that4 a~ ffi-+-A rn-i yr --i 1 n -n1 c. wher cor0 -rn_ -Ano, are grown, however, the yearly growth rate of agricultural products for domestic v.~ ~~~1 us -lare us une mau1 uur1-d-uu1-1-4.o,vuo a prcnu m U U ~de s' U1~JILU.LC&tU U.L.L_'r Oe-Uo. _n UIAC _LZ) d_UULI aL11* I~u U ~ it employs 16 percent of the active population. This sector has been the most dyniai uru s uthe conomy * I grew at thaverage rate o n u2 perct per annum from 1965 to 1970. In the last two years, however, the average rate of growth decreased to 5.' Dercent, due toun oau ck in he Jter-na1 deniania and slower growth in the exports to the Central American Common Market. 7. Consumption expenditure grew at the average rate of 5.3 percent per annua from 196) to 1971. in 172, the rate ou growth dropped touP .u percent. This is due, on the one hand, to the drought that started in the last part of 1971 and continued through 1972, reducing the income in large areas of the rural population and, on the other hand, to the unusual increases of prices of some grains and imported goods. Tne increased output of export crops w-s nsuficient to offset this effect since the income generated by these activities is very much concentrated. 8. Fixed capital investment in real terms grew at the average rate of 5.8 percent from 1965 to 1970. In 1971 investment grew by 9,0 percent, and in 1972, by 4.0 percent; these fluctuations were mainly due to expenditure by some public agencies - particularly.acquisition of new railway equipment by FEGUA (Q37 million) and a new jet by AVIATECA (QS.' million). (These and some other autonomous public entities are included in the private sector in the Guatemala National Accounts.) Private housing construction has stagnated since 1969. Construction activity has switched from traditional house building to construction of large offices, apartments and commercial buildings, all of this in Guatemala City. Real estate brokerage activity seems to have increased considerably in the recent past due to the large financial resources that are looking for real investments as alterna7ives to bank deposits. This should have a positive imoact Cn the construction industry in the next few years. -3- Chapter III: PUBLIC FINANCE 9. The Central Government continues to operate at a very low level of revenue and expenditure. The main budget items, expressed as a percent of GDP, are summarized in Table 1. TABLE 1: CENTRAL GOVERNENT BUDGET SIMMARY (main items as a percent of GDP) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 R-rantQ R-7 8 C FK A-7 A-7 R '7 R Current Expenditure 7.3 7.9 8.2 7.4 7.5 7.8 - 7.4 7.3 Savings 1.7 0.8 nh 1 1 1.9 0.9 1.3 1.1 -. 2 .1 . Oj~ l- .7 Deficit Financing 0.9 1.1 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 1.3 Source: Appendix tables 2.2 and 5.1; components may not add because of rounding. 10. in the past the Bank hab rep!aUtULy piuned to the need to reurm the tax system to make it more responsive to the growth of income. Current revenue has grown more slowly than Gbr since the mia 196us in spite of several tax increases and other favorable events. The main tax measures taken in (a) A 10 percent surcharge on the amount of arect tax payments; (b) An increase in the sales tax rate from 1.0 to 1.5 percent; (c) A 30 percent import duty surcharge on consumer goods from Third countries (i.e. outside the Central American Common Market), in accordance with the regional San Jos6 Protocol; and (d) Extension of the San Jose' Protocol to intermediate and capital goods. In addition, the coffee export tax base increased considerably in 1970 as a result of high prices, ana many companiU6 ugani oU P I1 mUume i sO Iinu- uV_ expiration of exemption periods granted under the Central American Agreement on Fiscal Incentives. 11. The Government nas insisted that tax collections could be substan- tially improved through better administration. Improved auditing added some Q3 million in 1971 and Qh million in 1972 1/, which amounted to about 14 percent of direct tax revenues and 2.5 percent of total tax revenues for the two years. During 1971 and 1972 the following important reforms were introduced in support of the declared policy of better tax administration: (a) The Ministry of Finance was reorganized, including the fusion of previous offices for individual taxes into -functional units handling differenct stages in the processing tax declaration or enforcement; - (b) Two multi-purpose tax declaration forms replaced the seventeen forms previously needed on a tax-by-tax basis; (c) Tax payments were centralized to permit taxpayers to pay all their taxes at one teller window; (d) In 1971, Congress approved the creation of a single tax- payer identification number that makes taxpayer com- pliance easier to check. It is, of course, too early to expect tangible returns from such measures. In addition, some aspects of these reforms are not yet operational because of the lack of qualified personnel and, in the case of the taxpayer ident- fication number, to insufficient computer capacity. Congress will soon review a proposal (Tax Code project) for harmonizing tax adninistration procedures. 1/ (a) In 1971. 6L3 returns were examined an1 closed, with an additional 2.4 million in taxes and penalties. In 172, 19! returns were examined and closed. but taxes and Tenalties decreased to 01.3 million. This d-on in the yield was due to the lower tax brackets in the returns slected. (b) Tn 1972. .392 rone-4i e S were rea-nraised. oroducing an increase n taxable valae of Q43.2 millifon and an increase in tax.of Q173,529. Ths small vield wps eii i tip l mranoe annlied P3 ann H Oe.t7A P ne) th_n Anr (c) Delinquency collection increased fro.m Q million in 1971 to about Q3 million in 1972 -5- 12. Thp TJ.qATn-fi nnceri nn ra su,+nc irveyv is aqnot+he=r measmire. -uh counm l help considerably in improving tax administration. The first stage of this n-v-ie bhich r+arte in 1OQ ann T7 . mnA.cz in Mrnn 1Q79 r.rx?r3A +.h- South coast and the department of Guatemala, the areas of higher property values. Mjcu-ove 44- +h . fo ankho -i+4a havep h~ad oav'm+,- Af'f-i anl+v in i nrnotr.i no- cadastral valuations on the tax rolls, because the original project design did "not take acOnt of the systemz of' filing rpyrcrd onh, the bais of administrative departments of the country. As a result, a second stage -ro4c +oo crnlete + mnnming Q nht +r% a+o"+.r7-J+'k nn ATn In nf US $1.25 million that will soon be considered by the Guatemalan Congress. 13. These measures, even when fully effective, are unlikely to generate s,_-lPficienat - a"tAdi4- tonaL ara,1a4>4 revenues r lb1o amrv 4- r -;~p~- 4 -1- an,--4- 1-r the amounts required to support an accelerated development effort. They will, _L4 .1 1U UL I _L U±_L U b.L U o e e any Ue) for th U.d ±di~~I Lt.').~U1 election of Ma:-ch 1974. The Planning Council Secretariat, however, is con- oSLUring1_.L r"tuiening a paUage vo 'o ax cu1.OL . UO _L714 7t L_ U U 1u jJil. It includes: (a) establishing a sales tax in substitution for the stamp tax, with higher rates for luxury goods; (b) increases in the export taxes on coffee, meat, sugar and cotton. (c) increasing the property tax from Q3 or Q6 per thousand to QlO per thousand to be divided between the Central Government and the municipalities; and (d) increasing the tax on motor vehicles. 15. In August of this year the 30 percent surcharge on imports from countries outside of the Central American Common Market (which provides Q9.8 million annually to Guatemala) under the San Jos6 Protocol (Protocol- o the general Integration Treaty on emergency measures to protect the balance of payments) was extended for an additional 5 years by mutual agreement of the Central American Common Market partners. In addition, the Central American Agreement on Fiscal Incentives, which provides generous tax incentives t.o promote industrialization, has been extended indefinitely. Current Expenditure 16. The growth of budgetary current expenditure from 1965 to 1972 was uneven, increasing at about the same rate as GDP at current prices (7.4 percent per annum on the average). During this period the general level of prices -6- (measured by the GDP deflator) had increased at about 1.3 percent per annin, with unusual increases in 1970 (5.1 percent)and 1972 (3.1 percent). The composition of the current expenditure has shifted in favor of social services in the last few years, especially in the fields of education, health and social welfare. However, the level of current expenditure in the social areas is still too low to cope with the needs of the Guatemalan DoDulation. The maintenance of public schools, health centers and roads conti¯nueis to be inadéeate. Investment Expenditure 17. The 1971-75 Development Plan was overly ambitious in the sense Bhat it required i a assive and immeiaLt,e increase in investment and at the same time called for establishing new institutions and reforming many old ones, especiallv for the erucial rural development program 1/. 18. The compositon o Centrai Governnent investnent exnenditure (including both fixed capital and transfers) has varied substantially from 1968 to 1972 (see Table 3 below). In 197 total investment nxpnire in r by nearly 20 percent, but direct investments in economic and social services werp further reduced fron the already lo levels of 1970. This refleri.ec the delays in project preparation and administrative procedures in carring them out. Table 2: NTRiL GVP'T CPURREZPNTT PDITTURE . PER i Economic Services 2.3 3-1 3.6 3,3 Social Services 9.3 10.3 12.8 13.1 ZJUk U..LUI 4. u D.¿ U.9 Health 2.5 2.8 3.2 Socia.l -iWClf a r e 2.0 f2 3L General LSeviLCs 9.9 107 U.8 u 2. General Administration 3.7 Defense and Police 0.6 . 3 Other 1.å 2.0 2. TOTAL 21. 24- 27.2 28., Source: Table 5.3. 1/ IBRD Memorandum on Recent Economi- Development and Prosoects of Guatemala, ~ No. CA-15, November l', U71. -7- l9 Thp- qaiitaiehtt ak nrl lqrk ef rnnann.ty ton nrp-npr,- projects have not been completely overcome. The situation, however, has million on investment in 1972. This has increased the share of Central (G,,nr,,n o vir e' n.w a4- aonai nv 4-. t-a en- r~~ ,ra. - r . (T)P c-- e wi'p vnnr t h+- 1.7 percent on average for the preceding four years. The increase in investment expenditure-- -'k 1 ik - -' 4-4k n,-A -A-,a'4--4 -- , -' . -4,,1n. -; 4n,,- a+ + aa frl1I Table 3: CENTAL GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT EXPENDITURE k-L11 1ILL1L111011 01 %CL1U2JCL-US C U CUI'llu F. Ii IH1US1~~ 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Agriculture ..1 2.8 2.7 3.4 n. It n I n Z .1 ansprt4 -L-) .4 13-).0U - 1.3 - lv, Communications 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.1 - Education 1.0 1.7 1.0 1.1, 5.1 Health 3.1 3.1 2.1 1.0 7.1 Other 0.4 U. 2. 5.0 7.4 Transfers 7.4 0.7 0.0 14.0 12.7 TOTAL .0.U 2.6 34.2 2,2 Source: Table 5.4 20. The Government continues to create new institutions to implement its development program. In August 1972 it created CORFINA (a public finance corporation) that will engage in industrial promotion activities as well as provide credit facilities at medium and long term. CORFINA is now in the process of being organized and staffed. The Government is also establishing a housing bank. This new bank will absorb INVI (The National Institute of Housing). These newly created institutions and the reorganized Ministries of Finance and Agriculture are encountering increasing difficulties in staffing due to the lack of sufficiently prepared personnel. This situation could limit the capacity of the new offices in the fulfillment of their tasks. 21. The Secretariat of The Planning Council has recently been strengthened. A full scale evaluation of the 1971-75 Plan is now in progress, and this work will greatly help in improving the preparation of project and the administrative -8- procedures to carry them out. The PlanninL Council Secretariat, as well, is preparing an interim short-term plan for 1974 to be presented in December. They exnent to produce a new five-vear Dlan by July 1974. This new olan is going to be a follow-up of the present one. It is expected to stress income distrbuti on hbieti+ve thronh exnlicit rep-i onai planning and switching nublic expenditures to poorer areas of the country. Rest of the Public Sector 22. The current account surplus of the consolidated Rest of the Public Sector remained at aohu+ A C million annullv rring the 196 -72 nprind -wile direct investment grew at about 15 percent per annum. (See appendix Table 5.5 n C Tn +ho 1 c+ +hnraa ee n-"'z +vI-* -i invq+rcman+. %r)+.nal l hnr+ 08 m 111n financed to a large extent through sales of assets, 39 percent, while external nt .-vrr_.cA -r,4- -17 ,-a'nn4 -c -~e4 -n- nc, +k- narnc, !I---rna +lr- - Government transfers, 23 percent, and the surplus in current account, 27 percent. Government: The Municipality of Guatemala City with the financial support of IDBA, _L U LML11 6~ C%~LJ cio- UU II U.Lllb el_j H U J_k 'U4. i ' U ' US$13 million. This project will improve the health conditions of the which untreated sewage is now discharged). GUATEL, with the financial support of _L-UlL, isO caryin onl an- r exano progra thlat VWll- iLncrease the1c uy o't~ local exchanges by 35,700 telephone lines, and will alleviate congestion and Uelayos n e natuLona] 10-ui diaunce Uirti LJ. C%ii Ll_LZ-L4iV anumollz:aon long distance network. A new project of US$33.1 million is under consideration u expand ±AJJ- Ueerolug cipciuuy U upe wi one aIcour.evy aImanu Unu 1978. Further capacity will probably be required before 1980 when a new lyroelectriC Siem JLS extpected to be in eraun unapter Iv: IuAEY 1UvD RAUyrIM 23. The remarkable price stability and the good baLance ol paynents results have been achieved through a cautious monetary and fiscal policy, Prices appear to have increased at a more rapid rate in tne recent pasz (see paragraph 16) due essentially to the movement in import prices and the scarcity of some grains. However, the statistics on prices, wages and salaries in Guatemala are very weak and must be interpreted with caution. Table 4: ASSETS ANLIABI±LTISLO UTE BWI-L'-U 8YSTEM (In millions of Quetzales) nd o' December Annual unange 1966 1970 1972 1965-70 1971 1972 International reserves, net 40.9 72.2 134.3 4.9 11.8 50.3 Domestic assets 239.5 339.4 426.6 26.1 32.3 54.9 Public Sector, net 34.e 41.1 101.4 J.0 Zo.U 3,.3 (C, net) (49.4) (45.3) (96.4) (3.5) (21.4) (29.7) (RPS, net) (-15.2) (-4.2) 5 .0) (0.3) ( 4.6) ( 4.6) Private Sector 178.0 248.9 278.1 16.7 8.3 20.9 Subs. to Intl. A.gs. 10.2 15.4 21.5 1.1 1. 4 4.3 Unclassified assets, net 17.1 34.0 25.6 4.5 -3.8 -h.6 Assets = Liabilities 280.4 '411.6 211.5 31.0 44.1 105.6 Money 140.7' 173.2 211.5 8.0 5.2 33.1 Quasi-money 98.6 176.9 271.2 18.4 33.5 60.d Foreign liabilities 1/ 19.6 24.2 21.7 1.2 -1.9 -0.6 Other liabilities 21.5 3t.3 56.5 3.4 7.3 11.9 Source: Tables 6.2 and 6.3 24. The public sector borrowing from the banking system has generally been moderate in the past. However, in the last two years it has increased substantially, especially during 1972, to finance the larger deficit created by the new level of investment expenditure and to acquire the assets of Guatemala Electric Company. This has been greatly facilitated, on the one hand, by the unusual increase in liquidity and the stagnation in the private sector's demand for credit; and on the other hand, by a built-in bias in favor of government financing through the minimum capital requirement ratio. (Banks are required to maintain their capital at a level equal to at least 5 percent of bonds issued or guaranteed by the Govern- ment, 10 percent of all other loans and 50 percent of fixed assets.) Since most of the comercidl banks have loaned up to their limit on non-governmental credits, the only way for them to reduce their idle balances rapidly is by increasing their purchases of Government bonds. 1/ Medium and long-term. - 10~' - 25. The banking system liabilities structure has changed substartiallv from 1966 to 1972, due to the rapid growth in the saving deposits vis-a-vis sight deposits and currency in circulation. This has produced a reduction in the average cash requirement ratio from 21.3 percent in 1966 to 17.5 percent in 1972 for the commercial banks 1/ . The unusual inereases in 1972 of both money and quasi-money, are due mainy1 to the prosperity of the export sector. in December 1972, H hanking system has an exss over the required1 reserves of Q28.1 million. This excess liquidity forced some of the commercial banks -in the firs-t months of this ver. to rednc the- rat. of ineet pado savings deposits from 6 percent to 5 and 4.5 percent, however, the Government has recently issu neT hnr]s haf he b,yl a-le o, nta up --rt of ti Tiquidity, and the rate of interest on saving deposits has gone back to it's norm.al level. 26. The instruments of mone-arycor are bacicnlly t cpi a a ratio and the reserve requirement ratio. The capital/asset ratio is a surmountable condition for the expansion of the banks' assets since permission to expand capital is given almost automatically. So far the reserve require- ment rati-, 1aS been. used snlle-l to for-c t- baks to p-ete at a-saFe -ee.1 The authorities are donsidering means to control the liquidity of the banking system to avoid possible future repercussions on the t lty opb They are, as well, concerned about the stability of the new deposits of the banking system once the- international_J_~~ ntary s m gos- back t- norma they fear this might result in a substantial capital outflow. 27. The present excess liquidity of the banking system suggests the need and provides a goodu p unity r establiing a more ac mo etaryi U~4V policy. The authorities should consider using a marginal reserve requirement ra-ti aLS an instrumiento t ut suppl of mney. Te hu as well t steps for the creation of a secondary market for the Government papers to finance part of its development expenditur'e on better termE and t lower ost, through a liquid assets reserve ratio, composed of gcvernment bonds and bills without the need for a sight repurchaseguarantee clausc. 2b. The commercial banks are alIowed by legisiation to lend at mediu tenn, but the legal fixing of a maximum rate of interest at only one leFe, (U percent), plus a 1 percent coimission on the opening of the credit, make such operations unattractive. Short-term operations offer both less risk and beuter psssibiiities to increase the effective rate of interest. Tne authorities should consider establishing a structure of interest rates which could correct the present bias of the system against medi-um term lending. 1/ T1he prevailing requirements are 35 percent against sight and short-term time deposits and -,ndrawn balances on lines of credit, and 10 percent against long- term time and savi_ncs depositE. Chapter, I 'DAT A'hj1V nM~ DAVLTU'Yrr1Q 111. ~. U- 'a _LaiA U.L S1 as 2 W Jmproved 'U1 UU i' andL bl nce~L . of LentsiI hC1 ) j1. _L U~±JVZU ~'JA,U1Z1 .LLJ_Y -Lil the recent past. Exports have increased at a high rate, imports have been contained, capital anluwS have been substanal and the net aoreign reserve of the Central Bank have reached an all time record. Exports 30. The Central American Common Market and the generous tax incentives gave the production and export of manufactured goods a power'u push in- te 1, 0. This has resulted in a significant industrialization of the economy, mainly to su-stitute for iupors into the C1C area. in aUiuon, there nave been new opportunities for exports of meat and sugar. 31. Guatemala's exports have been substantially diversified, as is shown on the accompanying Table 5. 0able 5: PIUCIPAL EAUI (in millions of U.S. dollars) l 60 1965 1970 197.1 1972 Agriculture exports 105.0 12.h 168.3 155.9 188.0 Coffee 74.6 91.7 100.6 96.3 107.2 Cotton 5.d 34.4 27.2 26.0 41.8 Bananas 17.3 4.9 20.5 ib.2 23.2 Other 7.3 11.4 2C.5 15.4 15.8 Mineral exports 1.5 O.L -LL4-L -1. Industrial exports 9.4 49.3 124.4 127.6 145.6 Meat 0.2 4.6 12.7 -1-7.4 19.6 Sugar 0.1 4.2 9.2 9.9 i1.1 Other 9.1 40.5 102.5 100.3 111.7 TOTAL EXPORTS (F.O.B.) 1152 2-22.1- 2.21 286.9 337.5 Source: Table 3.2 The export drop of 1971 was due,mainly to the adverse world market conditions for the main export products, but the withdrawal of Honduras from the common Market also contributed through its effect on-Uother" industrial exports. - 12 - 32. Coffee continues to be the principal export of Guatemala. Pro- duction has remained fairly stable in the past with a substantial increase in 1972 due to favorable weather conditions. Prices in the international market improved in 1970, dropped slightly in 1971, but improved again in 1972. Nevertheless, the average price of Guatemala's coffee exports dropped in 1972 due to unusually large sales to new markets (i.e., outside the countries covered by the I.C.O. agreement). While sales to new markets in 1971 were 2,000 metric tons at a value of US $1.4 million, in 1972 they went up to 13,174 metric tons at a value of US $8.0 million. 33. Cotton export volume increased by more than 55 percent in 1972. Although the area devoted to cotton production was reduced substantially in 1970, the recent introduction of new techniques to control plant diseases by chemical insecticides and earlier planting, plus the .dry season of last year, have resulted in an excellent cotton crop in 1972. This has been accompanied by improvements in the international market for cotton. As a result of all these factors the demand for cotton land has increased and its price more than doubled last year. 34. Banana export volume increased by 15 percent last year. This has been the result of the coming into production of new areas on the Atlantic coast in the Izabal department. These new plantations have replaced the previous ones on the Pacific coast in the Tiquizate area which is now dedicated to cotton production. The new location gives better protection against violent sea wind and better access to the port. The "Gros Michel" variety has been replaced by the "Valeri" which is more resistant to the Panama disease. The United Fhuit sold its banana plantations to Del Monte in December of 1972 (Compaflia de Desarrollo Bananero de Guatemala Ltd.)., The new company plantation is about 9,400 acres while the independent producers have about 3,000 acres. 35. Meat exoort volume orew at the average rate of 16.5 percent ner annum from 1965 to 1972, with prices improving constantly. The high level of demand in the international market is the main incentive for this relativelv new exnort for Guatemala. The Government has imposed export quotas to assure supplies for the internal market. Most of the exnorts of ment are to the USA. Si inr Prnor+. volume artw at the qverne rqiP of 1 M nro7ent npor nnnm from 1965 to 1972, in spite of the reductions of 1968 and 1969. Prices have imnvrnvd onsideably in the p-t - grew at the average rate of 23 percent per year from 1960 to 1972. Nearly all of these exports are to the Central American Comond Market. Te rate of row+etn slowed down in the later.part of the period, due to the crisis of tne Common Market thlat began in 1969A-/: wih~ tbe umr between EP1 Salvador and" Ho nduras. ,) E xpj9J o~ r A. t1J. sJL t.J o.. t-ILI -. le.)IILL Centra IlUer ca Como Make fe lII 1 TTC1 (-1 n) m IlI;on in 1970 to TTQ $t91 -m I nn1i in 1971 * ~is z due tcqii t +ne1 rdioi(+in in exports to Honduras from US $27.8 million in 1970 to US $8.9 million in -1 Q17-1 . I 1 0-70 +"-~ - +,' +-,- r. m, -an -,.~ 'k-~ fk , ),- but still the share of exports to the area as a percentage of total exports ur. p eu Lii Al 94 *4 LLn -L7 I U. U C_ /7 .J ±L -L,; I 4. 11l1 6jLuuo -&PUJ.L U 1 . J,y .UY UU11c%_Lc:. to the CACM area include textiles, shoes, clothing, processed foods, chemical poUcts m -iIetb alli1C proU-duLCt-L,S, machinery, electrical1 prdcs,rber prodct8 non-metallic products and paper. 39. In 1971 the Government created GUATEXPRO, an autonomous public entity to promote exports, especally of non-traditional industral and agricultural products. The institution has recently been organized and they are trying to promote exports to third countries, outside the u.D1 area. New products are already being exported mainly.to the USA. Among these, flowers are the most successful. Availability of airline cargo space is the main constraint. The exports of fresh vegetables and fruits have not had the same success, mostly due to the lack of experience. Cotton textiles are, as well, being exported to the USA. 40. Endowed with geographic and historic attractions, colorful folklore, pleasant climate and its proxinity to the USA, Ciuatemala has a great potential in tourism. The number of tourists going to Guatemala has been increasing very fast in the last two years, in 1970 the number of tourists arriving in the country was 173,642; in 1971 it was 238,797 and in 1972 it grew to 348,138. More than 50 percent are from other Central American countries and about 25 percent from the United States. Earnings from tourism increased from US $O.d million in 1969 to US$ 16.5 million in 1972; while indicative of the trend, these data probably underestimate the actual figures. Several factors have contributed to this result, among them being promotional efforts and the reduction of airline tariffs through the GIT (Group Inclusive Tourist). 4l. The Toursim Institute (INGUAT) is working actively in the promotion of tourism. A feasibility study for developing the Tikal Park in the Pet6n is being prepared. This project, which would include a new airport, will require US$ 12.5 million of investment. The OAS is preparing the terms of reference for a tourism development scheme for the Izabal area on the Atlantic Coast. Imports 42. The slow growth of consumption, the reduction in the rate of growth of investment in the manufacturing sector in recent years, and to some extent bhe surcharge under the San Jos6 Protocol, have been reflected in low imports. The growth rate of imports (measured f.o.b.) fell from an average of -.5 percent noer annum in the period 1965-70 to 4.7 percent per annum for the last two years. In 1)72 the f.o.b. imports grew by only 2 percent, but in c.i.f. terms. imoorts grew about 6 percent due to the large increases in freight raeas. 43. Imports from the Central American Common Market grew at the average rate of 20 percent per annum from 1960 to 1972. The share of imports from the area is now about 21 percent of total imports, with El Salvador and Costa Rica as the two main suppliers. Financing the Current Account Deficit Lb. As shown in Table 6, the current account deficit has been mainly financed through substantial inflow of private resources. However, since 1569 the participation of international organizations has increased substantially. The overall balance of payments has remained in surplus since 1968, reaching an all time record of US$50.3 million in 1972. The Central Bank1s net international reserves, at the end of the year, reached US$137.6 million. This was due to the excellent market conditions for the main exports of Guatemala, the availability of supply due to favorable weather conditions for the export crops, the uncertainties in the international financial markets that encouraged the Guatemalans to keep their capital in the country, and the Quiet political climate that also helped to reduce capital flight and brought in tourists. Table 6: SUMMARY BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ( in millions of US dollars) Annual Average 1965-66 1967-65 1969-70 1971 1972 Resource Gap -16.5 -39.9 7.6 -2b.2 0.5 Eynorts (incl- n-f-s-) 277 2h9.7 2 32.7 7 707 _777 - Imports (incl. n.f.s.) -261.0 -289.6 -318.7 -368.9 -395.3 Net Factor Income -1L.5 -24.5 -32.0 -38.6 -39.1 Net Current Transfer 8h1i 5, All _) _ ?- CRRENTr ACOUTT' BALAC MT 22A .2 n -Q -A Direct investment, net 1.32. 22.8 15 Other short-term, net -J. 1.9 -19.1 9.9 25.2 Public Sector 7. 19.5 15.4 11.8 8.1 r' . U ' g -r-- at-ons ne '1 '- I -L4- Governments, net 1.4 3.7 0.2 -0.1 4.9 Loans to Banks / -.1 2.2 . -1.2 -0.1 Others 2/ -1.0 -0.9 0.9 2.1 2.8 monetary movements, net (increase - ) 4.7 1.7 -17.3 -11.8 -50.3 Net errors and ommissions -Iu.l -5.8 -1).2 -9.9 -6.6 Source: Table 3.1. 1/ medium and long-term. L/ Capital subscriptions to International Organization and allocation of SDRs. 15 . 5nThe average terms of the total external public aeot Uincluding unclis- bursed) improved substantially from 1965 to 1972, due mainly to the increasing borrowing from international organizations in the last Zive years. Table 7: PUBLIC EXTEENAL DEBT AT THE END OF PERID REAYABLE IN FORIG~LN CURRE1NCY ' l965 198 1971 1972 Outstanding including undisbursed (In million US dollars) 85.7 157.7 189.1 190.1 Average Interest Rate (percent) 5.18 5.48 4.80 4.78 Average Grace Period (years) 2.8 3.9 5.8 5.8 Average Maturity (years) 14.9 18.8 ?h.0 2t.4 Z1 Debts of and guaranteed by the public sector. Source: Table 4.2. 46. The Government recently established an office in the National Planning Council Secretariat to coordinate all external borrowing by the public sector. This should improve the ability of the authorities to manage Guatemala's external debt in such a way as to maintain a favorable debt profile and to see that these foreign resources are used for priority purposes. Chapter VI: THE INCIDENCE OF GOVERNMENT POLICY ON POVERTY 47. The main features of the poor in Guatemala are that they are very poor by world standards, almost entirely rural, mostly Indian, and to a considerable extent, geographically concentrated in the region known as the northern altiplano. 48. Though GDP per capita in Guatemala is now almost $400, half of the population lives on an average annual income of about $75. Peasant incomes are themselves more unequal than is usually perceived; thus, the poorest 20 or 30 percent, or some 200,000 - 300,000 families, live on per capita incomes of under $50. The most reliable source for income statistics -- a set of urban and rural surveys carried out in 1970 by the University of San Carlos -- found that for . one-third of rural wage-earners' families, per capita consumption was valued at between $20 and $60 per annum. Though such living standards tend to elude any - 1o - men~i i ct.at.tical Anrinton_ a look at the health statistics confirms the picture of extreme poverty: the death rate, which averaged 16.2 for all Guatemala in 19/',A w 292A in q recinn with 2C nperent of the total nonnintion: infqnt mortality was 89 per 1,000 live births for all Guatemala; the principal causes r1i Ac . M anceQ rr%nmn i-.n n er- r and tn r - vin -r i nr3rnAt. rn ablin health measures, such as gastritis and enteritis, influenza, pneumonia, whooping to determine from available data. The evidence for increasing poverty is indiect -Ad co e -P--- n dat Innr V C v.01-n r4 lncTl --+; rNin Ta+ N 4'vurA Ir 'Zlinn r3 and constant yields per hectare in the subsistence farming regions. Other sources, the data are inconclusive, they suggest little net change in small farmer incomes v). Uu rrL poor are concentrated -L.u U ugWU 6gzug)rD .1 u n largest is the northwestern altiplano, comprising some eight Departments; about UU perceu oi a- bImall 1armret iSve wLeW e an a moLUo a±re uugeno2uw. ;auaL cuu cultural separateness makes of this region a particularly complex development problem. A second concentration of very poor mUnifIuncss is found inu Whe oriente or southeastern highlands, where in contrast, a majority are ladinos, 1u04 WILLUt orL IILL,U r'E . L U8U* IU.oE', INt UWu ueu.Lk1 1u0u .LuI CL - m u e poorest half of the population, and about 75 percent of all minifundistas. umaL± iLvrmerI ±1 n 1~ v £ne reIns ar rUUivx veive v41, OnJ Uon avkerage. un.. the Coast they enjoy better land and better access to services; in the central aLti_p.LaIIo the"y hlavu t!ubLt:.[ aue o thela GuLate1u&la Cit.y andu z")UULIntLa macLLrkets:. A few, very poor minif±undistas, however, also live in the isolated, tropical northern provixCes. 51 nThe impact of Government policy on poverty in Uuaemala _L6 very small. Direct government effort has been small in relation to the extent and degree of poverty. however, there are some indications that the size ana quality of direct efforts on behalf of the poor could increase significantly in the near future. Additionally, some policies not primarily intended as anti-poverty measures, have helped to spread the benefits of recent economic growth to more backward areas. 52. The 1971-75 Development Plan contains a well designed set of programs, and a sizeable total allocation of funds for the rural poor. However, few of those programs are having an effective impact. bome have not received the necessary budgetary support, particularly the costly projected expansion of rural schooling and the adult literacy campaigns. Most have suffered administrative lags. And the potential impact on the poorest groups of most of these programs has been weakened or diluted as they have moved from the planning to the imple- mentation stage. Bureaucratic biases and the action of pressure groups have influenced the design of programs and the selection of projects in such a way as to divert funds to the less poor, politically stronger, and, from a develop- ment point of view, more responsive groups within the rural sector. An extreme -17 - ~ .~ JL~ ~71L~4 .LJ ..L 6L±dI cu .ll L1 d.yi"tal J c" U JOA.L.L.L u4..j ull UL L densely populated northern altiplano; other programs such as agricultural marketing facilities tend to benefit better-off groups outside the major cities. In±J eIah cas.ej , "iy a pa b,cluLU ?i ± ~L VUL 011iJd.L parbo.L .L., olJ bhe~ -".LU U " benefits reach down to the neediest 25 percent or 50 percent of the population. 53. Some current developments could lead to a much larger impact on poverty .11 onitJ near 'LuU-ULre. Firsy munyu govelsu-Iuv p-ogratuI - re ---- 4 gearing up, and may soon be in a position to greatly extend their reach; programs such as rural health, primary and aul scholing,g credit and extension have already passed through most of the delays caused by the need to establish new administrative machinery, train I-elU workers and design (or re-design) procedures after pilot studies or initial field work. Secondly, the frontier of government efforts is gradually oeing pushed outwards and downwards from a concentration on schools, hospitals nd infra- structure for Guatemala City and the relatively developed and commercialized agricultural areas to the needs of smaller towns and rural population in the less developed regions of the country. And thirdly, the poor are acquiring a greater capacity both to pressure for and to use government resources; this is a result of efforts at rural promotion, particularly by private sector agencies, and of the resulting institutional.development in the form of cooperatives and local government. 51. Several difficulties, however, stand i.i the way of an exctension 10 the size and effectiveness of programs that reach the very poor. The very poor must compete for resources with middle income groups -- organized labor. the bureaucracy, small town elites -- whose voice in governmernt :ray grow more rapidly than their own. An% broadening of political power may release strong demands fron these middle groups, who are still relatively weak in Guatemala. A second difficulty is that most planners and administrators tend to steer productive investments away from the poor (where problems are less well under- stood and results less certain) and towards well defined higher-yielding oppoU- tunities in already developed areas, unless funds have been channelled by urior political distributive decisions. A similar bias, that is evident in the Norte- medio investment projects, is the plannerst attraction to very large, capital- intensive regional development schemes in new or less populated areas whece projects are not constrained by problems of human change. Such plans also compete wise bhe often cheaper but adninistratively more difficult programs in the more populatb >d areas. 5. Finally, there are still unanswered questions cegarding th pla-ie c Indian culture in an economically developed socLety: most of the standard approaches to rural development are inconsistent with the preserva:ion of many':r aspects of Indian culture. Private sector groups involved in rural developrent in Guatemala have conflicting ideas regarding the best wavy to reconc lIe culturail values with economic development. Any significant expansi n of government e Cfforbs for rural development will face difficult choices in this conflict. IO -rce anii Wage puU .Luot~ lLait UL± U1=1 Wilv_Lu ±lc C LLLU." '.L u± OA-L U.L impact, chiefly by favoring labor-intensive crops and techniques in modern agriculture. Different poicie, uch as tne promotion of eUxrmely land- intensive livestock farming and the enforcement of existing minimum wage laws, could have a large negative impact on agricuLuraL employment. 57. International financial agencies can help to improve the impact of government policy on the poor partly by influencing the design of projects, and partly through their choice of projects for lending. Thus, more stress should be placed on identifying the principal beneficiaries of any proposed investment, and on a thorough search for alternative project designs with comparable cost-benefit ratios but better distributive incidence. Ulapter viI: PH0u6FE i -(y) 58. The economy should be able to grow at 6 percent per annum for the next seven years without jeopardizing the economic stability of the country. During the last five years investment expenditures averaged only 13 percent of GDP. In order to sustain a 6 percent growth rate however, an increase in the investment coefficient seems necessary. To raise this coefficient to 16.5 percent (implying an ICOR of 2.75) by 1979, gross investment will have to. grow at more than 9 percent per annum; domestic savings should grow at almost 9 percent. (The mission's projections, based on a continuation of the present development orientation, are summarized in Appendix Tables 2.3,B; 3.1,B; 3.2,B; 4.6; 5.1,B; 5.2, B; 5.3,B; 5.4,B; 5.5; 5.6,B). 59. Central Government current revenue is expected to remain at about 8.4 percent of U0P during the period and current expenditure at about 7.2 percent. These levels, given the expected improvement in the operations of the autonomous public sector agencies and enterprises, would provide sufficient savings in support of the public sector investment effort. Central Government investment expenditure on this basis would remain at about 2.5 percent of GDP, to stabilize at the comparatively high level achieved in 1972. This assumes, however, that there will be no radical change in the policy towards improving the living conditions of the poor, the health services, the education and other services to the community that are well below what is required in the country. 60. The overall deficit of the Central Government, under the above assumptions, would increase from US$27 million in 1972 to an average of US$44 million in 1977-79. In the latter period a substantial part of this deficit could be financed externally. If most of the borrowing is on long term, the resulting improvement in the debt profile would permit the debt service ratio to decline in the late 1970's (see below). 61. The balance of payments prospects are good and the forecasts for the main exports of Guatemala are encouraging. It is expected that EXMIBAL - 19 - will start exporting nickel in 1976 and that, with a moderate support from GUATEXPRO. the exnort of other non-traditional nroducts can grow at about 10 percent per annum. In addition tourism is anticipated to grow at 20 percent ner annum. With continued imorovement in non-traditional exnorts. the overall rate of growth of exports of goods and non-factor services should be about 9 nernent in nrrent nrireR 62. Imports have been low in the -cast as a conseauence of the deliberate policy of the Government to contain them mainly through import duties. In addi- tion, the slowdown in the investment of the manufacturine sector and the increases in prices due to the devaluation of the dollar and increases in the freight have contributed to it. In order to obtain a rate of growth of about 6 percent of GDP at constant prices, it is estimated that it will be necessary for imports of goods and non-factor services. at constant Drices. 'o grow xt, nhnMt, 9 nrAent per year during the first three years (including those for EKMIBAL mining project) and at about 6 percent ner annum from 1976 onqrr9,; 63. Thep stucur o he etePrnal1 piiblic debt has imroe cndral in the past few years; this trend is expected to be continued. The debt service ratin r7n Qhrn. 7 0 no--rm-snt. in +.h nmi'n-dc, 10AP..71 sAn jn e , i+n 1972. This was due to substantial amortization of the debt to foreign private banks and to the redemption of bonds. AS+1I teSe bon-rroig r r eplacn6-S - e d by - ne---A w- -- loans on more favorable terms, the debt service ratio is expected to decline longer run if Guatemala is successful in meeting its capital requirements -hn, r ncc , 1vf - - V r-3 r ~A n, _.vn,u1_a,,-,- ti. . L4. The l e-l-erna-1 sector does notips ~~~it T~c~~1 economic prospects for the next seven years are good. Under this perspective, there ar M o eratives for the An+tmalan ilnt.h"ritn4-rn: onf 1s to continue operating at the low level of budget equilibrium without major social policy 4- e-, - s,o 4-e-rtr + -,r-rAna I n aP t wo+1 nov-,i" ThrA alta -I.rnative und111A o rnntinn to widen the gap between the regions and economic classes in the country. The the pattern of development so as to channel a larger volume of economic resources int prgr.... ' ~'~i +) -orr 'up n- re ni To) r3r +,hp, 1rqt,t.er- it, I3-UU.S... J~ -I ' -~ would be necessary to: (a) substantially raise the level of public revenue and pAJ35i.L U 134 and also the administrative capacity to carry them out; and (c) design monetary instruments for channelling banking system in both the public and private sector. - 20 - The adoption of a more ambitious set of social and economic policies and programs need not give rise to balance of payments difficulties since there is still ample room for the country to borrow on good terms and to mobilize additional domestic fiscal resources. STATISTICAL APPENDIX Table No. I. POPULATION 1.1 Distribution of Population by Size of Settlement, 1950, 1965, 1969 1.2 Economic Active Population by Sectors, 1950, 1960, 1965-72 II. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 2.1 Gross Domestic Product by Sector, 1960, 1965-72 (1958 prices) 2.2 Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Categories, 1960, 1965-72 (current prices) 2.3 Summary of Ntinnal Arcount. (1967-69 nrices and exchange rates) Part A: 1960, 1965-72 Part R* 1Q71-72 And nrniPoted 1973-79 2.5 Value Added in Manufacturing by Major Industrial Branches, 1950, 1955, 1960, 196r-71 (1Q5 prices) 2.6 Value of Production in Manufacturing by Major Industrial Branches, 190, 1955, 1Q60 1QAR;-71 '1958 pricool 2.7 Gross Value of Production of Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fisheries, 196A-71 (10rP p-4cesl TTT IAT AMT nV DAVM-MTC Baac o4L Pamet 14t nULLUL Mu ~ IU 1 J10n 0- T llar Part A: 1965-72 E:dLL D. 1I7_L dLU prUjeteu 17IJ17 3.2 Value, Volume and Unit Value of Principal Exports Part B: 1971-72 and projected 1973-79 3.3 Su7-Lary of Imports, 1961-72 3.4 Trade with Other'Central American Countries, 1960-72 3.5 Exports and imports by Major Destination and Origin, 19o, 1961, 1966, 1971 3.6 Number of Tourists by Country of Origin, 1965-72 iV. LALKNAL UDET 4,1 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1972: Repayable in Foreign Currency 4.2 External Public Debt Outstanding at the End of Each Period: (Profile) Repayable in Foreign Currency 4.3 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1972: (Transactions) 4.4 External Public Debt Outstanding as ot December 31, 19/Z: Repayable in Local Currency 4.5 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1972: (Transactions) Repayable in Local Currency 4.6 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1972 and Projections 1973-79 (Transactions): Repayable in Foreign Currency -2- 4.7 Reconciliation of the Net Total External Debt - Local and Foreign Currency (1965-72) V. PUBLIC FINANCING 5.1 Summary of Central Government Operations Part A: 1965-72 Part B: 1971-72 and projected 1973-79 5.2 Central Government Current Revenue Part A: 1965-72 Part B: 1971-72 and projected 1973-79 5.3 Central Government Current Expenditure by Sector Part A: 1965-72 Part B: 1971-72 and proiected 1973-79 5.4 Central Government Capital Expenditures by Sector Part A: 1968-72 Part B: 1971-72 and projected 1973-79 5.5 Summary Transactions of the Autonomous Agencies (RPS), 1965-72 and projected 1973-79 5.6 Consolidated Public Sector Operations Part A: 1965-72 Part B: 1971-72 and proiected 1973-79 VI. MONEY AND CREDIT A-1 Siimmnrv Arrniirntz of tH 'Rnkinc, q-j,tPm 19AA-72 6.2 Financing Capacity of the Banking System, 1966-72 6. Ne Mt Chinages inthe Assets and Liabkilit-iesc of the Bnkring System, 1966-72 VII. PRICES 7.1 Price Indexes I.POPUI.ATION Table No. 1.1 Distributionof Population by Svie of Settlement, 1950, 1965, 1969. 1.2 Econo.mic Active Population by Sectors, 1950, 1960, 1965-72. Table 1.1: GUATEMALA - DISTRIBUTIQN OF POPULATION Bf SIZE OF SETTLEMENT 1950, 1965, 1969 Census Estimate 1970 1964 1969 (thousands) Total population - all settlements 2,791 4,585 5,091 Towns of less than 10,000 inhabitants 2,479 3,714 3,945 10,000 but less than 50,000 inhabitants 28 275 342 50,000 but less than 100,000 inhabitants -- -- -- More than 100,000 inhabitants 284 596 804 (percentage) Total population - all settlements 100.0 100.0 100.0 Towns of less than 10,000 inhabitants 88.8 81.0 77.5 10,000 but less than 50,000 inhabitants 1.0 6.0 6.7 50,000 but less than 100,000 inhabitants -- -- More than 100,000 inhabitants 10.2 13.0 15.8 Source: General Statistical Office. CE.KLA,DE:BLetin demografico, OctobUer 1968. Tahlf- . 2: GUATEMAIA -- ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION BY SECTORS 1/ 1950, 1960, 1965 through 1972 1950 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1?72 (number of persons) Agriculture 577,846 696,831 734,653 745,980 757,410 768,942 780,576 792,294 804,896 816,067 Mines and Quary 1,406 1,597 1,837 1,870 1,901 1,934 1,968 2,026 2,036 2,068 Manufacturing 108,744 134,277 181,974 188,194 194,611 201,226 208,048 215,074 222,534 229,794 Construction 25,765 31,046 30,965 31,326 31,687 32,049 32,412 32,776 33,171 33,508 Electricity 1,213 1,505 3,195 3,406 3,629 3,869 4,122 4,392 4,684 4,985 Commerce 51,245 70,710 94,923 98,835 102,899 107,121 111,505 116,054 119,599 125,688 Transport 14,968 23,141 28,870 30,141 31,466 32,844 34,280 35,775 37,368 38,954 Services 93,308 128,782 136,967 140,418 143,943 147,542 151,215 154,965 158,944 162,703 TOTAL 874,495 1,087,889 1,213,384 1,240,170 1,267,546 1,295,527 1,324,126 1,353,3.56 1,383,232 1,413,767 (pcrcentage) Agricul ture 66.1 64.1 60.5 60.2 59.8 59.4 59.0 58.5 58.2 57.7 Mines and Quary 0.2 0.2 0.2 0,1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Manufacturing 12.4 12.3 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 Cons tr c tion 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 Electricity 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Cognierce 5.9 6.5 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.9 Transport 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.B Se rvices 10,7 11.8 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1/ Excludes people under 15 years of age. Source: Bank of Guatemala. II. NA.TIO'l ACUNTS Table No. 4L ross IO[Mesti '11-cIdL)uCt "L-,;Y'SCI-0-, L7,UIJj \7Y 2.2 Gross Domestic Product by Dcpenditure Categories, 1960, 1965-72 (current prices). 2.3 Summary of National Accounts (1967-69 prices and exchange rates) lart A: 1960, 1D65-(2 Part B: 1971-72 and projected 1973-79. 2.4 Gross Fixed Capital Formation by Major Sectors, 1965-71 (1958 prices). 2.5 Value Added in llanuiacturing by Major Industria Brancnes, 19;u, 1955, 1960, 1965-71 (1958 prices). 2.6 Value of Production in Manufacturing by Major Lndustrial Branches, 190, 155, 19o, 196>5-71 1958 prices). 2.7 Gross Value of Production of Agriculture, Tivestock, Forestry and Fisheries, 1960-71 (1958 prices). u Table 2.1: GIUATEgALA -GOSS DOIEST.[C PRODUCT BY SECTOR 1960, 1965 through 1972 (preliminary) (In millions of 1958 quetzales) 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Gross domestic product (market prices) 1,049.2 1,355.2 1429.9 188.6 ,619.2 1,695.9 1792.8 1 896.2 2,10.0 Priinary production 320.0 391.0 h09.5 09.9 436 h64.3 91.h 521.0 5 Agriculture and related sectors 3I8. 3I9.9 J ö077 08.1 U2.2 7W6.~9 79-7 19.2 359.2 i'iing 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.4..4 1.7 1.8 1.9 2eccnjary production 163.5 229.4 253.2 274.5 300.7 321.9 332.9 349.4 371.3 ..anufac turing '. 190. 210.7 228¯3 U 273.3 Z3.0 298.3 36. Construction 20.7 24.5 26.6 29.3 27.6 28.5 28.4 28.h 30.0 Utilities 7.3 14.1 15.9 16.7 18.3 20.1 21.5 22.7 25.1 3ervices 565.7 73)4.8 767.2 804.2 864.9 909.7 968.5 1,025.8 1,087.6 Transport and comnunications -0.3 73.8 7.3 78.1 85.3 92.0 98.2 105.7 111.3 Commercial services 27)4.5 376.6 397.2 417.6 461.5 48,0.6 5:18.o 551.9 583.6 -inancial services 16.7 32.7 33.4 35.0 36.2 38.2 42.3 43.6 48.8 -ousing services 9h.4 107.6 111.4 114.9 116.3 121.8 124.8 130.5 136..4 Public administration 63.7 65.1 66.8 72.2 73.3 82.6 86.9 86.4 94.1 Other 64.1 79.0 82.9 86.4 90.3 94.5 98.3 105.7 113.4 Source: ½ank of Guatemala and 13RD inission estinates. Tab~L GUATEMALA - CROSS DOIMESTIC PRODUC' BY EXPEDITURE CATEGORIES 1960, 1965 through 1972 (preliminary) (Ih millions of current quetzales) 1960 6 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Consumiption expenditures 955.9 1,183.1 1,245.3 1,315.9 1,396.1 01554 1 649.0 1,745.3 1 889.3 General government 79.9 97.9 10 .0 l ~6 1153 3 Private sector 876.0 1,085.2 1,140.3 1,203.3 1,280.8 1,380.9 1,497.6 1,600.5 1,735.3 Domestic investment 107.5 177.2 149.6 188.1 243.8 195.7 244.1 283.8 29.3.0 Gross fixed capital formation 102.,1 179 T67.3 191.7 220.9 231.0 ZW¯Ï 291¯¯ 2T. (General government) ( 26,6) ( 42.6) ( 38.0) ( 43.8) ( h.0) ( 43.8) ( 45.2) ( 48.6) ( 59.8) (Private sector) (75.5) (132.3) (129.3) (147.9) (176.9) (187.2) (193,3) (216.2) (225.3) Change in inventories 5.4 2.3 - 17.7 - 3.6 22.9 - 35.3 5.6 19.0 7.9 Gross domestic expend-iture 1, 63, i 360o.3 1,394.9 1,504.0 1639.9 _j711.l 1 893,1 209 2.182.3 Net balance goods and services - 19.8 29 - - SO.5 - 29.3 - .3 10.9 - 28.2 bcports 131.9 227.8 261.1 232.5 266.9 302.9 349.6 340.7 395.8 Imports 151.7 256.7 265.3 283.0 296.2 298.6 338,7 368.9 395.3 Gross domestic product 1 043.6 1331.4 1,390.7 j3.5 l6.ý10.6 1715.4 1,904.0 2 000.9 2 182.8 Net factor income payments 10. - 1l5 - 17.4 - 20d - 28.1 -- 30.9 - 33.1 - 39.1 Gross national product 1,033ý2 L 1.9 1,373.3 1 432.7 1 82 168_. 1470.9 2 143 Source: Bank of Guatemala and IBU mission estimates. Note: There are slight differences in some aggregates with the data given by the Central Bank. Table 2.: GUATILAA - SU~MAR« OF NATIONAL ACC!NTS Part At 1960, 1965 through "1972 (preliminary) (In millions of US$ at average 1967-69 prices and exchange rates) 196 165 196 i67 196 96 1970 1971 :1972 I. Consunption 973.5 1,223.1 1,289.5 .1,319.9 1,406.2 1,501.5 1,583.2 1,667.0 1,734.5 II, ross Investment 120,2 180.2 358.0 191.8 246.9 1138.8 228.2 261.8 ?60.3 III. Gross National Expenditure (=I+II) 1,093.7 1,403.3 1,447.5 1,511 .7 1,653.1 1,690.3 1,811.4 1, 9?8.8 .1 99 4, IV. Net balance goods and services -49.8 -55.0 -24.9 -30.6 -4,2.1 - 2.9 -27.7 -42.2 5.0 (Export,s) (128.6) (207.3) (244.7) (256-4) (256.6) (289.2) (287.1) (290.6) (326.0) (Imports) (178.h) (262.3) (269.6) (287.0) (258.7) (292.1) (314.8) (332.8) (321.0) V. Gross Domestic Product (=III+IV) 1,043.9 1,348.3 1,422.6 -1,481.1 1,611L0 1,687.4 1,783.7 1,886.6 1,999.8 VI. Gains from terins of trade 25.6 25.4 20.6 -20.6 12.6 7.2 37.8 36.8 - 4.6 VII. Gross Domestic Income (=V+VI) 1,069.5 1,373.7 1,143.2 «,h60.5 1,623.6 1,69.6 1,821.5 1,903. 3,995.2 VIII. Domestic Savings (=VI«-I) 96.0 150.6 153.7 140.6 217.4 193.1 238.3 236.4 260.7 IX. Net factor income paynents - 5.9 -11.7 -17.7 -21.1 -28.3 -30.2 -30.8 -34.8 -3L8 X. Gross National Product (=V+ix) 1,038,0 1,336.6 1,hoh.9 1,460.0 1,582.7 1,657.2 1,752.9 1,851.8 1,968.0 XI. Gross National Income (=X+VI) 1,063.6 1,362.0 1,425.5 1,439.4 1,595.3 1,664.4 1,790.7 1,868.6 1,963.4 XII. Carrent transfers received, net 17ý2 7.7 9.6 9.4 11.5 13.8 16.8 22-3 23.6 XIII. National Savings (=XI+XI.I-I) 107.3 316.6 145.6 128.9 200.6 176.7 224.3 223.9 252,5 Gross Domestic Product at Current 1,043.6 1,331.4 1,390.7 1,453.5 1,610.6 1,715.4 1,904.0 2,000.9 2,18 .8 Prices Source: Bank of Guatemala, IBRD mission estimates. Iahle 2.3: MALA - SUMM1ARf OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Part B: 1972 (prelimninary) and projected 1973-79o (In rillions of USS at average 1967-69 prices and exchange rates) 1971 1972 1973 197 197 1976 1977 1978 1979 1. Consumotion 1,667.0 1,734.5 1,827.1 1,942.2 2,041.5 2,13h.2 2.251.0 2,37h.0 2,503.6 II. Gross Irnvestent 1/ 261.8 260.3 299.9 317.6 356.3 392.8 h2h.3 858.2 494.8 III. Gross National Expenditure (=1+II) 1,928.8 1,994.8 2,127.0 2,259.8 2,397.8 2,527.0 2,675.3 2,832.2 2,998.4 IV. Net balance goods and servieps 2/ -42.2 5.0 - 9.1 -16.9 -22.6 - 9.3 - 6.5 - .3.3 0.2 (Exports) (290.6) (326.0) (347.2) (370.8) (396.8) (426.6) (455.6) (486.5) (519.4) (Imports) (332.8) (321.0) (356.3) (387.7) (419.4) (435.9) (462.1) (489.8) (519.2) V. Gross Domestic Product (=III+IV) 3/ 1,886.6 1,999.8 2,117.9 2,2b2.9 2,375.2 2,517.7 2,668.8 2,828.9 2,998.6 VI. Gains from terms of trade 4/ 16.8 ~ 4.6 - 7.8 - 9.9 -12.2 -11.9 -17.7 -20.8 -24.2 VII. Gross Domestic Income (=V+VI) li,903.h 1,995.2 2,110.1 2,233.0 2,363.0 2,502.8 2,651.1 2,808.1 2,974.4 VI1I. Domestic Savings (=I-i) 236.4 260.7 283.0 290.8 321.5 368.6 hoo.1 43.1 870.8 IX. Net factor income pa;,yments 5/ -388 -31.8 -30.6 -31.4 -33.1 -36.8 -38.2 -39.6 -41.1 K. Gross National Product (~V+IX) 1,851.8 1,968.0 2,087.3 2,211.5 2,342.1 2,480.9 2,630.6 2,789.3 2,957.5 KI. Gross National income (=X+VI) 1,868.6 1,963.4 2,079.5 2,201.6 2,329.9 2,466.0 2,612.9 2,768.5 2,933.3 XII. Current transFers received, net 5/ 22.3 23,6 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.1 20.5 XIII. National Savings (=YI+XII-I) 223.9 252.5 270.0 277.5 3o6.9 350.8 381,h 414.6 45C.2 Gross Domestic Product at Current 2,000.9 2,182.8 2,379.3 2,569.6 2,775.2 2,997.2 3,236.9 3,895.8 3,775.5 Prices 6/ .sProjections are made using the IBRD Minimum Standard Model for Guatemala. 1/ Assumes the IGOR will increase slightly from that of the last five years to 2.40 until 1975, increasing to 2.50 in 1976, 2,60 in 1977 and thereafter an increase of 0.05, as is expected that the govermient will continue its new level of in- vestnent, mostly in infrastructure. 2/ See footnotes on tables 6.1 and 6.2. 3/ Assumes a rate of growth of 5.9 percent per annum for 1973, '7L, '75, and 6 percent per annum thereafter. h/ See footnotes on tables 6.1 and 6.2. Assumes that import prices will increase by 4 percent in 1973, 3.0 percent in 1974 and 2.5 percent thereafter, while export prices will increase by 3.0 percent in 1973, 2.5 percent in 1974 and 2.0 percent thereaf ter. 5/ See table 6.1. 6/ issumes a growth rate of 8 percent per year. Source: Bank of Guatemala and IBRD Mission projections. Table 2.4 GUATUIA - GROSS FIUD CPITAL FORMATION BY MAJOR SECTORS 1965 through 11 (~rhlii7nary) (Tin milLlions of quetzales at 1958 prioe) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Agriculture 1/ 23.2 19.8 16.5 19.3 17.3 17.4 18.6 (Machinery and. equipment) (14.1) (10.5) ( 8.4) (10.3) ( 8.1) ( 8.0) ( 9.0) (Permanent crops) ( 5.3) ( 5.h) ( 4.7) ( 5.3) ( 5.$) ( 5.5) ( 5.6) (land iRprovement) ( 3.8) ( 3.9) ( 3.4) ( 3.7) ( 3.8) ( 3.9) ( 4.0) Industry 1/ flachinery and equipnent 47.0 hh.6 49.5 56.5 56.6 60.3 590 Transport and communicatiors 1/ Machinery and equipnent 15.7 15.2 17.5 21.1 20.0 17.9 34.3 Private Constriuction 26.5 30.6 24.4 24.5 27.5 25.8 24,.7 Others 2/ 18.8 26.4 38.8 49.7 54.2 51.4 53.6 Public Inves tment Roads and publie works .35.6 29.3 37.6 38.3 37.1 36.,8 38.4 TOTAL 166.8 165.9 184.3 209.4 212.7 209.6 228.6 1/ Includes capital goods acquired by the Public Sactor. 2/ Includes onrly capital goods produced li the couitry. Source: Bank of Guatemala. Table 2.5: GUATEMALA - VALUE ADDED IN MANUFACTURING BY MAJOR INDUSTRIAL BRANCHES 1950, 1955, 1960 1965 through 1971 (In millions of uetzales at 1958 prices) 1950 1955 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Food processing 2G.2 29.3 41.2 51.4 54.9 58.3 69.5 73.6 76.5 81.5 Beverages 19.1 19.7 24.6 26.4 26.5 26.6 27.1 28.9 30.6 33.2 Tobacco 9.4 9.6 11.2 13.7 14.3 16.5 15.2 15.8 17.6 18.0 Textiles 4.7 6.4 12.3 24.5 26.6 29.4 30.3 31.7 33.8 :35.6 Clothing and footwear 11.1 13.2 18.9 24.6 26.8 27.8 31.5 33.3 32.6 :34.1 Wood and cork manufactures 2.0 2.5 2.5 4.0 4.2 4.1 3.9 5.0 5.5 5.2 Furniture and fixtures 3.6 4.1 4.8 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 Paper and paper goods - 0.1 0.6 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.9 4.7 Printing and allied industries 1.2 1.7 :2.4 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.9 4.8 Leather and leather products 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 3.7 3.7 3.0 3.3 Rubber products 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.1 3.2 3.6 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.9 Chemicals and products 2.7 2.9 4.6 6.8 7.5 8.5 9.3 9.5 10.3 10.4 Non-metallic minerals 3.8 4.8 5.3 10.2 10.9 10.0 9.0 10.6 10.2 9.9 Metal products 0.4 0.9 1.5 6.3 11.7 16.1 21.1 23.6 22.0 23.1 Machinery,, excluding electrical 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.6 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.8 Electrical machinery 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.1 3.9 4.0 Transportation equipment 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 Miscellaneous 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.9 3.7 4.7 6.1 7.8 10.0 12.8 Total 86.6 98.3 135.5 190.8 210.7 228,4 254.8 273.3 282.9 298.3 Index 1960 = 100 63.9 72.5 100.0 140.8 155.5 168.6 188.0 201.7 208.8 220.1 Source: Bank of Guatemala. Table 2.6: CUATEMALA -'VALUE OF PRODUCTION IN MANUFACTURING BY MAJOR INDUSTRIAL BRANCHES 1950, 1955 190, 1905 through 1971 (In millions of' quetzales at 1958 prices). 1950 1955 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Food processing 95.9 106.6 142.7 178.2 184.3 195.5 234.4 247.6 261.2 280.8 Beverages 25.0 24.1 30.8 34.4 34.1 33.9 35.3 38.9 41.1 44.6 Tobacco 12.0 12.4 14.5 17.7 18.5 21.3 19.7 20.4 22.8 23.4 Textiles 10.9 14.6 28.4 56.8 61.7 68.1 70.4 73.7 78.5 82.8 Clothing and footwear 28.7 34.0 49.5 65.5 71.1 73.6 80.9 85.3 84.2 88.4 Wood and cork manufactures 4.8 6.0 6.0 9.5 10.0 9.7 9.4 11.9 13.3 12.4 Furniture and fixtures 6.5 7.5 8.7 10.1 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.3 Paper and paper goods 0.1 0.2 1.3 5.8 6.1 6.7 8.0 9.0 11.0 10.5 Printing and allied industries 1.8 2.7 3.7 6.8 6.0 6.3 6.2 7.0 7.6 7.5 Leather and leather products 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.6 4.2 7.4 7.4 6.1 6.7 Rubber products 0.3 0.4 2.5 4.9 7.5 8.4 10.5 9.7 9.2 9.0 Chemicals and! products 8.2 8.7 14.2 20.2 22.0 24.9 27.1 27.4 28.6 30.0 Non-metallic minerals 8.0 9.9 11.1 21.2 22.7 20.8 18.6 21.9 21.2 20.6 Metal products 1.2 2.3 4.0 16.7 31.1 42.8 56.2 62.8 58.6 61.3 Machinery, excluding electrical 0.1 0.3 0.5 2.1 3.9 5.3 7.0 7.8 7.3 7.7 Electrical machinery 0.1 0.3 0.5 2.1 3.9 5.3 7.0 7.8 7.3 7.6 Transportation equipment 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.7 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.9 Miscellaneous 0.2 0.6 2.1 7.2 9.2 11.8 15.2 19.5 24.9 32.0 TOTAL 207.4 235.1 326.2 466.2 509.8 553.0 628.5 674.0 699.5 742.5 Index 1960 = 100 63.6 72.1 100.0 142.9 156.3 169.5 192.7 206.6 214.4 227.6 Source: Bank of Cuatemala. Table 2.7: GUATEMALA -GROSS ALE OF PRODUCTION OF AGRICULTURE, LIVES1OGU. ORESTRY AND F15HERIES 1960 through 1972 (preliminary) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 [9W 1911 1972 (in thousand of quet.ale- at 1958 prices) Agrzulýre 226,813.9 226,612.5 237,189.1 286797.0 289,786.9 294 507.5 332,944.0 28_7266. 305I42.8 310,457-,258% '3C, 3'l 35- 31 , Food crops 87,251.2 90.059.6 93,239.4 108,748.8 114.291.5 116,098.1 116,092.8 1 18,544.5 122,317.7 123,356.1 128,202.4 135,807.3 137,397.4 Maize 24,713.6 25,234.2 26,263.2 32,795.7 34,797.4 34,396,1 33,811.8 32,811.6 32,359.2 33,097.0 36,271.4 39,719.2 33,746.8 Rice 1,473.6 1,359.5 1,713.1 1,967.1 2.632.9 3,054,2 2,0C4.9 2,490.0 2,713.1 2,870.0 2,453.6 2,904.3 7,464,0 . Whea 2,591.4 3,011.2 3.152.3 4,163.9 4.408.3 4,856.2 3,982.3 3,139.3 4,517.9 3.091.0 4,074.5 4,496.0 4,861.3 Barly 13.6 12.9 12.2 14.3 16.3 17.0 19.0 l9.7 19.7 21.0 23.9 26.5 27.9 Sear 15,326.4 15,570.8 15,633.1 20,237.2 21,422.0 21.214.2 22,596.6 25,725.0 26.258.4 26,601.5 25,836.1 26,362.6 26,09.2 L mo Bea:. 860.3 887.6 914.9 920.4 900.1 928,2 1,033.5 1,065.5 1,098.2 1,132.6 1,167.7 1,203.5 1,241.0 Lenls 4 ,9 4.49 4.9 6.1 6,1 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.5 Ground 3..to 95.7 98.7 99.8 105.9 108.9 112.0 112.0 115.0 118.1 72.2 126.2 164.5 134.4 Sesme 123.8 141. 195.4 189.0 216.7 197,5 179.6 582.0 754.7 427.9 419.7 1,008.6 7,553.5 P ta'e 1,218.9 1,335.4 1,567.9 1,343.2 1,652.3 1,948.5 1,552.3 1,414.2 1,244.4 1,344.5 1,479.1 L,627.2 1,790.0 \egetables 14,863.2 15,541.8 15,414.6 15.923.4 66,417.2 16,926.0 17,446.8 .2,956.6 18,513.6 19,061.5 19,679.4 20,289.6 20,918.4 rts 15,098.0 16,069.8 16,773.3 17,326.8 17,863.9 38,612.2 18,931.9 ]9,539.4 20,145.1 20,769.6 21,433.9 22,027.4 2261.8 Other 10,867.8 10,791.1 11,294.7 13,657.0 13,799.4 14,024,2 [4,425.9 13,679.4 14,568.7 14,783.7 15,250.3 16.922.6 16,921.5 lndustiol Cres 139,562.7 136,552.9 143.949.7 178,040.? 175,495.4 178,409.4 186,851.2 168,722.2 183,625.1 187,101.7 192,054.4 196, 566.8 216.903.8 Guffe 87,651.5 85,628.2 88.333.0 103,021 97,846.7 105,300.9 100,039,6 87,765.8 96,363.7 98,353.5 108,499.4 109,852.2 108,59.0 Cacao 310.1 404.1 174.2 757.6 181.2 188.1 395.2 202,1 209.0 216.0 223.0 229.9 23 9 Rubber 249,7 249.1 538.7 724.9 882.6 915,4 1,322.8 1,890.7 2,10.6 2,332.1 2,317.2 7,380.5 2,447.2 Cotton .1t:: 8,895.4 31,941,9 18,119.5 30,2/2.4 35,840.3 40.090.2 .4,738.4 36,866.6 41,415.- 37,078.5 29,574.? 39,603.6 45,513. cotto. sa? 950.3 1,299,4 1,975.4 3,309.5 3,905.2 4,376,4 4,770.8 3,950.6 4,646.5 4,167.6 3,285.0 3,681.2 4,9.3 Kaf 80.0 96.0 460.8 534,4 562.4 671.2 680.0 752.0 856.C 744.8 761.6 649.6 583.2 sar 14,388.6 13,997.4 17,904.4 18,221.9 18,255.4 16,430.9 20,010.7 20,7331. l,995.0 21,150.9 22,6,5.1 29792,, 29,22.9 Banana tpe: 20,938.3 18,283.3 1729.9 16,323.4 13,017.7 5,262.2 .,31.8 8,305.0 12,990.2 16,196.8 16,849.5 1,622.9 17.806.7 Ctroela 602,0 212.8 269.5 421.3 439.0 478,6 398.2 356.5 246.1 161.1 146.6 343.0 30c. 1emon Grus; 1,091.7 584.0 919.3 1,235.9 970.1 729,1 792.3 743.0 585,1 614.9 930.5 733.0 689.I lardason 1,524.0 769.7 1,385.5 1,262.3 1,323.9 1,216.1 1,47/.8 1,7/0.3 2,062.8 2.016.6 3,278.9 2,401.5 3,732. oaocco ,1,019.8 1,000.1 1,028.2 1,443.3 1,491.8 1,637.1 1,710.9 3,978.5 1,878.9 1,992.1 2,321.8 2,412.5 ',471.5 Chicle 3,861.3 2,094.8 620.5 819.9 778,1 1,113.2 1,083.3 3,399.5 1,430.4 7,172.6 1,422.8 862. 048 Li tock 81,536,5 ,462.4 8,9.j?6.3 92,153.7 92,145.7 97668,.2 104916.5 l12.8 2._ 1550i_5 172 08. 19914 4 202_326 Forstr 28,660.6 29,798.3 30,598.9 31,179.7 34_675. 35.738,2 _35891.2 18, 200. 8003.0 39 2530.9 4,055.5 42,123,5 446 '6 FhIn an o5 r 740r.g _176.9 _3, 3939 3,876.0 _3_942._2 4,803.0 _,1 _ _i,5 064.9 4_495.4 4 818.9 5,370.7 5 369,2 5 1 Tal Goss \ue rod, n 3 187.9 148,267.1 260,79.3 414622.6 _20.910.8 43> 100.0 447 928 449 5.8 498,063.9 _09,822. 5 571_8,2 2200 83 22,092.9) 24,659.' 25,67.8 31,145.4 36,148.8 39,753.? 40,209.4 41,354.4 45,821.9 46,903.6 49.614.8 52,603.6 55,6.3.1 Total alue Added 318,095.6 323,607.4 334,922.5 338,477.2 384,762.0 392,346,8 407,719.4 408,150.4 432,242.0 462,919.5 489,677.1 519,174.6 549,309.1. (A, percentage of grost vlue of produclon) ARiculture 66.7 65.1 65.7 69.2 68.0 68.1 67.6 63.9 61.4 60.9 59.4 58.5 5b.6 (Fo, crops' (25.7) (25.9) (25.8) (76.23 (27.1) (26.9) (25.9) (26.4) (24,5, (24.2) (23.8) (23.8) (22.7) 1InduurIo Crept) (41.01 (39.2) (39.9) (43.0) (41.73 (41.2) (41.7) (37.5) (36,9; (36.71 (35.6) (34.7) (35.9) Li.e:-ck 24.0 25.4 24.7 72.2 21.9 22.6 23.4 26.5 30.1 30.4 32.0 33.2 33.1 Forestry 8.4 8., 8.5 7.? 8.1 8.3 6.0 8.5 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.3 7.3 Fishing ond Runtilg 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.0 l.- . 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 Total Grost VINe of Produerin 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 170.0 100.0 100.2 100.0 100,0 103.0 300.0 Sourcue: Onad of Guaohtala. III. EAL:àUE 0? PAENTS Table No. 3.1 Palance ofPayments (in millions of USO) Part A: 1965-72 Fart B: 1971-72 and projected 1973-79. 3.9 Value. Volume and Unit Value of Princinal Exports Part A: 1950, 1965-72 Part B: 1971-72 and pro:ectd 1973-79. 3.3 Siuery o2 1morts, 191-72. 3. ' Trade with Other Central :½.mericar. Courtries, 196-?2. 3. Exports and Imp-orts .by Major Destina;ion and Origin, 1936, 1961, 196 , 1971. 3.6 Mumter of Tourists by Country of Origin±, 1963-72. Table 3.1: GUATEMALA - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Part A: 1965 througi 1972 (preliminary) (In millions of US dollars) 1965 1966 197 LY00 7Q7 170 171 --A I. xpoes of &a and non-fant-r servicne 227.8 261.1 232.5 266.9 302.9 349.6 340.7 395.8 Merchandise, f.o.b. 192.1 231.9 203.9 233.5 262.5 297.1 206.9 337.5 Travel 5.9 5.7 5.5 6.5 9.2 12.1 13.6 16 9 Other services 2o .5 23.1 * (*-q '4 110.L -0.2 41.4- II. Imports of goods and non-factor services 256.7 265.3 283.0 296.2 298.6 .338.7 368.9 395.3 Merchandise, f.o.b. 206.1 201.8 226.5 237.6 24o.9 269.9 289.9 2p. Freight, insurance 18.2 19.2 23.2 21.4 21.3 25.3 27.2 40.3 Other services 12-h h)1_1 33.3 37.2 36.4k 43.5 _51iA 59- III. Resource gap (III - I - II) -28.9 - 4.2 -50.5 -29.3 4.3 10.9 -28.2 0.5 IV. Factor income, net -11.5 -17.4 -20.8 -28.1 -30.9 -33.1 -38.6 -39.1 Profits. net -11.7 -16.2 -18.2 -25.3 -27.5 -29.5 -31.8 -34.8 Interest, net 0.2 - 1.2 - 2.6 - 2.8 - 3.4 - 3.6 - 6.8 - 4.3 V . -lFansers, net 7 on a VTh Th.2 18.0 2L.8 2910 VI. CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (VI III + IV + V) -32.9 -12.2 -62.0 -46.0 -12.4 - 4.2 -82.0 - 9.6 Private Sector 42.8 8.2 37.b 37.2 21.0 22.5 51.0 55.7 Dirt invtment, net .1 1 99 h22. 22.8 15.1 Other long-term, net 1/ 12.8 13.5 1L.3 15.8 13.8 20.9 18.3 15.2 Other short-term 15.9 -23.8 4.9 - 1.0 -17.2 -20.9 9.9 25.2 Public Sector _/ 10.9 3.8 24.2 18.7 4.4 26.3 11.8 8.1 International Oruanizations. net 0.8 1.5 6.2 7.9 12.6 16.5 15.7 14.0 (Disbursement) ( 2.4) ( 3.1) ( 8.1) '(10.0) (15.1) (18.8) (16.5) (16.) (Amortization) ( 1.6) ( 1.6) ( 1.9) ( 2.1) (2.5) (2.3) (0.8) ( 1.6) Oovernmentb, net 2.7 0.1 .." O. 0.. 4 (Disbursement) ( 3.9) ( 1.5) ( 5.0) (5.8) (2.5) (2.3) (2.2) (7.2) (Amortization) ( 1.2) ( 1.4) ( 1.7) ( 1.8) ( 2.2) ( 2.2) ( 2.3) ( 2.3) Other Private, net 1/ 7.4 2.2 14.7 2.8 - 8.5 9.7 - 3.0 -11.h dium an 1nng-ter- Inrs to hanks, net 28 -1 o.6 3.9 1J, 0.1 - 1.2 - 0.1 Bank of Gtataa"s, net 'g/ 2.8 0.5 0.8 4.1 2.0 0.4 - 1.1 - 2.7 Commercial Banks 0.2 1.0 - 0.1 - - 0.4 - 0.1 - 2.6 Development institutions - 0.2 - 0.1 - 0.1 - U.2 - U.2 - v.2 -0.1 - 011 Transactions with International - 1.8 - 0.3 - 1.5 - 0.3 - 1.4 -1.0 - 1.6 -1.0 Organizations / Allocation of SDRa - - - - - b 399 Monetary movements, net (- increase) 2.5 6.9 5.6 - 2.3 - 9.8 -24.8 -11.8 -50.3 Net errors and omissions -24.3 - 3.d - 4.3 - 7.2 3.2 -23.1 - 9.9 - / Data from the IBRD Debt Reporting System. Does not include amortization of the external debt renavable in local currency and the external debt disbursed and repayable in local currency. )/ Includes loans from foreign private banks, financial institutions, suppliers to the Public Sector and the Private Sector with government guarantee. Includes as well public bonds. IL/ Data from the IBRD. Debt Renorting SvatAm. 1/ Includes Central Government capital subscriptions to International Organizations and CABEI, IBRD and IDB holdings of quetzales. Source: Bank of Guatemala, IMF Balance of Payments Yearbook, IBRD Debt deporting System and Mission 1972 estimates. Table 3.1: GUATEMALA - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS Part B: 1972 (preliminary) and projected 1973-79 (In millions of US dollars) 1971 972 IV73 17( 147 170 17( 17I l7; I. Exports of goods and non-factor services 340.7 395.8 434.7 476.1 520.1 570.7 622.1 678.0 739.1 Merchandise, f.o.b. 286.9 337.5 372.L 408.8 446.9 490.7 534.1 580.6 630.6 Travel / 13.6 16.9 20.3 24.3 29.2 35.0 42.0 50.4 60.5 uOer ser-vIces 402i4. 142.0 1.0. _)l.0 -I:. ).,. 17,i II. Imports of goods and non-factor services?/ 368.9 395.3 456.3 511.4 567.1 604.2 656.4 713.2 77.9 Merchandise, f.o.b. 289.9 295.7 Freight, insurance 27.2 LO.3 Other service- 29 III. Resource gap (III = I - II) -28.2 0.5 -21.6 -35.3 -47.0 -33.5 -34.3 -35.2 -35.8 IV. Factor income, net -38.6 -39.1 -39.2 -41.3 -4h.8 -51.0 -54.2 -57.7 -61.4 Profits. net -31.8 -314.8 -36.3 -38.3 -40.3 -44.5 -46.8 -49.2 -51.3 interest, net - 6.8 -14.3 - 2.9 - 3.0 - 4.5 - 6.5 - 7.4 - 8.5 - 9.7 V. Transfers, net 24.8 o 29.0 22.6 23. 2 27, f1. .7 29. I "6 VI. CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (VI = III + IV + V)-L2.0 - 9.6 -38.2 -52.7 -66.8 -56.1 -6o.8 -63.7 -64.6 Private Sector 51.0 55.7 29.8 53.3 68.9 23.0 21.0 17.3 l5.3 Direct investment, net 2; 22.8 15.3 22.8 27.14 31.8 23.0 214 .0 25.0 26 u. Other long-term, net 18,3 15.2 7.0 25.9 37.1 - - - 7.7 - Other short-term 9.9 25.2 - - - - - - Public Sector / 11.8 8.1 27.7 22.6 31.2 37.7 44.3 51.4 50.5 Tnternational Organizatins, net 1Z7 1 1R.n 21. 27.6 1A.0 Lo Lib 1 (Disbursement) (16.5) (16.4) (20.2) (23.1) (29.8) (36.0) (12.1) ( 07.8) (50.2) (Amortization) ( 0.8) ( 1.6) ( 2.2) ( 2.1) ( 2.2) ( 2.8) ( 4.1) ( 4.5) ( 6.1) Governments, net - 0.1 4.9 9.4 8.0 9.3 9.7 .2 10,7 9.0 (Disbursement) ( 2.2) ( 7.2) (13.7) (12.8) (11.7) (11.2) (11.5) (11.6) ( 9.9) (Amortization) (2.3) (2.3) ( L.3) (L4.8) (2.L) (1.5) 1.3) 0.9) ( 0.9) Other Private, net - 3.6 -11.6 0.3 - 6.L - 5.7 - 5.2 - 3.9 - 2.6 - 2.6 Mdiumn and long-terat -Loans to bak,net - 1. 2 - i Bank of Guatemala, net - .1 - Commercial Banks - 2.8 Development Institis43, - 0.1 -0.2 Trwrisction wit Ltornati ona 1,.,. -- - -0 Organizations Allocation of SDRs. 3.9 3.6 Monetary movements. not (- increase) 7/ -11-8 -40.1 -19. -21J2 -1A - 2_ - 7q - 0 - Net errors and omissions - 9.9 - 6.6 / Assumes an annual growth rate of 20 percent. / Assumes a minimum elasticity of demand for imports (constant prices) of 0.6,' for 1973 and 1 thereafter. An additioz ~1.9 millibon is aded Ln 19"131 UH00 100 -4-114on. i 10"'. an, US'~ 1". M .114on ln7r' - . VT4a e-- r- ject. / Assumes 10 percent of profit remittances over the previous year direct investment. In 1976, US, 2.0 million is added by the EMIBAL nickel project. Assumes a growth rate of 5.0 percent over a new base year calculated as an average of the last five. / Assumes US$ 20 million for 1973 and 197li and there After on Aonii.ionl onn. million q t A A w : is added in 1973, USS 7. million in 1974 and US.3 9.8 million in 1975 by the ERIBAL nickel project. 6/ a) Assumes the following new commitments: 1973 197th 9b176 17 197b 197 International Drganizations 20. S3.O L9.0 59.8 62.0 L16.0 46.0 Governments 5.7 9.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 vi) Incuuu te val-lkO uf Guatemiala. / Residual. Source: Bank of Guatemal4, IMF' Balance of Payments Yearbook, IBfcD Debt Reporting ystem and IBRD Mission estimate for 1972 and projections for 1973-79. .able 3.2: GUATEMALA -- VALUE, VOLUME AND UNIT VALUE OF PRINCIPAL EXPORTS Part A: 1960, 1965 through 1972 (preliminary) (Value in millions of US$, volume in millions of Kilogran and unit value in US$) _ 1960 1969 196 1967 1968 19 70 1971 1972 Agricultural exports value 105,0 142.4 ; 170.1 124.9 143.2 157.0 ;L68.3 155.9 188.0 Coff ee Value 74.6 91.7 100.1 68.4 73.4 81.5 100.6 96.3 107.2 olume 79.9 95.3 1,09.2 81.3 94.3 99.6 95.1 100.0 115.3 Unit value 0.9 0.96 0.92 0.84 0.78 0.82 1.06 0.96 0.9.3 Cotton Value 5J8 34.4 44.5 31.5 h1.0 40.3 27.2 26.0 41.8 Volume 12.1 70.6 92.8 67.1 75.2 84.2 57.7 55.6 87.1 Unit value 0.48 0.49 0.48 o.h7 0.55 0.48 0jf7 0.7 o.b8 Baiianas Value 17.3 4.9 10.5 9.2 14.L 16.9 20.5 18.2 23.2 volume 189.0 34.1 105.2 - 142.7 182.9 190.2 201.h 232.0 Unit value 0.09 0.13 0.10 - 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.09 0.10 Other agricultural exports value 70 11.4 15-0C 15.8ý 14.7 16.3 20.0 15.4 15.8 'ireral exourts value 1,5 0.4 1.5 2.7 3.7 4.h .44 3.4 3.9 Volume 11.1 3.5 7.7 ~i.6 ¯. Ï 13.2 ~7.0 Unit value 0.1h 0.12 0.18 0.15 0.32 0.27 0.23 0.26 0.23 Industrial exports value 9.1 49.3 76.3 86.6 101.0 124.4 127.6 _l5.6 Meat Value 0.2 h.6 5.3 8.0 8.6 12.0 12.7 17.4 19.8 Volume 0.' 5.8 5.9 8.8 9.4 12.3 12.1 16.2 16.9 Unit vaLue 0.38 0.79 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.98 1.01 1.07 1.17 Sugar Value 0.1 .2 6.o 8.9 8.0 6.7 9.2 9.9 1l.1 Volume 0.7 31.6 52.3 60.9 56J 46.0 57,3 66.7 78.3 Unit value 0.10 0.13 0.11 0.15 0.1 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.18 Other industrial exports value 91 0 L9 0 59 h 70.0 82.3 102.5 1003 111-7 TOTAI EXPORT JL 11 .9 192.1 231.9 203.9 233.5 262.h 297.1 286.9 337.5 Table 3.2: GUATEMALA - VALUE, VOLUME AND UNIT VALUE OF PRINCIPAL EXPORTS Part B: 1972 (prelimninary) and projected 1973-79 (Value in millions of US$, volume in millions of Kilogram and unit value in US) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Agricultural exports value 155.9 188.0 21L.2 226.1 240.0 240.6 2h.5 248.7 253.0 Coffee 1f Value 96.3 107.2 130.1 135.4 138.7 137.h 1)40.7 144.1 1-47.5 Volumne 100.0 115.3 108.4 111.0 113.7 116.4 119.2 122.1 125.0 Unit value 0.96 0.93 1.20 1.22 1.22 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.18 ctton 2/ Value 26.0 41.8 37.5 46.0 55.5 55.0 54.h 53.9 53.-4 Volume 55.6 87.1 7)4.9 91.9 111.0 109.9 108.8 107.8 106.7 Unit value o.47 0.48 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Bananas / Value 18.2 23.2 23.6 23,6 23.6 2h.8 24.8 2).8 24.8 Volume 201.4 232.0 235.8 235.8 235.8 247.6 247.6 247.6 247.6 Unit value 0.09 0.10 0.10 0,10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Other agricultural exp orts L1/ Value 15.4 15.8 20.0 21.1 22.2 23.4 24.6 25.9 27.3 Mineral exports value 5/ 3 3.9 4.0 _h..5 _.5 30.3 38.9 38.9 _)8.. Volume 13.2 17.0 - - - - - - Unit value 0.26 0.23 - - - - - - - Industrial exports value 127.6 1145.6 157.2 178.2 2 2.14 219.8 239.7 260.6 281.8 Meat 6y Value 17.4 19.8 23.5 31.7 41.3 43.4 h5.6 47.9 47.9 Volune 16.2 16.9 18.2 22.3 26.5 27.8 29.2 30.7 30.7 Unit value 1.07 1.17 1.29 1.42 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 Sugar Lf Value 9.9 14.1 10.8 11.3 12.14 12.9 114.2 lU.8 16.2 Voluie 66.7 78.3 63.8 66.h 69.1 71.9 7)4.8 77.9 81.1 Unit value 0.15 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.20 Other industrial exports Value EV 100._.3 111.7 122.9 2.2 148.7 163.5 179.9 197.9 217.7 SUB-TOTAL EXPORT VALUE 286.9 337.5 372.4 4o8.8 446.9 490.7 523.1 548.2 573.7 Additional exports 2/ _l.0 32.4 56.9 TOTAL EXPORT VALUE 286.9 337.5 372.4 408.8 446.9 490.7 53)4.1 580.6 630.6 Source: lee footnote in the followLng page. Notes for Table 3.2: GUATEMALA --VALUE, VOLUME AND UNIT VALUE OF PRINCIFAL -,JoU6d Part 3: 1972 (preliminary) and projected 1973-79 (Value in millions of US$, volume in millions of Kilogram and unit value in US,) 1/ TBRD Commodities and Exoort Projections Division, COMODITY PAPER No. 2 (2/73). Assumes that the volume will grow at 2.4 percent per annum over the base calcu- TAtPd ns an average of 1969-70-71. The prices are those given in the paper less 2.5 cents per lb. to obtain F.O.B. Guatemala. 2/ Assumes 10 nPrcent growth per annum in the area cultivated until 1975, from a three year moving average centered on 1970. Assumes 8.9% growth per annum in vield tntil 197.. from a three year moving average centered on 1970. The area cultivated and the yield remain constant after 1975. Assumes internal caonsmption of h5,on bales in 1973 and 1974. thereafter to increase by 5,000 bales per annum. / Asmes export ro 3 milionn hnv5 of LO bs. ner annum for 1973-74-75 and to remain constant after a 5 percent increase in 1976. Prices remain constant. L/ sse a 2 ent annual growth from a three year average centered an 197C / Assumes US$ 0.5 million increase in marble exports in 1974, remaining constant the export o m4inwal rsithanti nickel, thsranfar. Assumes that in 1976 the nickel mine will operate at 75 percent of its annual capacity and thereafter a+ fall capact+ Ann-Ia apaity 17 ,Onn Mn lhg nf matta with 7 nernent of nickel. Price constant at US$ 1.24 per lb. A Aq-nmes Ort -nn-t no-+ -o nnm wa+p n ? crrvui+.h in volnm iintil 197- over a new base calculated as a three year average centeredon 1970; thereafter the rate appieA is percent de to +4,o n lIo limiT+:2nrq in avail1hiTitv of land. Assumes that prices will increase by 10 percent per year ntil 1975, and till r6uada~n coi.unat- 'Wherc.~va""WrA1r. / Assumes that volume will increase at 4.1 percent per annum over a new base a 1 te a a three.~ yea r.a,. cu.1a aOC W1 averag Aot-. ----mn ----4 flr grow at 2.5 percent per annum during the period. Additional exports requireito maintain the growth rate of exports of goods anLL n/aditi6.oral L-5---e at tC,he ,,ir4,,u'i of 9 1-arcnt novr anw-,n. current pric -. U. %UJ. CLId.L . 4DJ TM-I-) W-Zs4UaJAA - .. . U5 'J L O*7 . ')-"J?C Tabe_).3: GUATIMA - SUffMAR OF TKPORTS 1961 through 1972 (preliminary) (IN millions of U.S. dollars) 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Total imports, c.i.f. 133.6 136,0 171.2 202.,1 224,3 221.0 248,1 259.0 262.2 295.2 317.1 336.5 Consumr goods 45.9 44.0 59.7 60.2 73,5 67.1 74.0 77.9 78.7 87.7 89._4 91.4 Non-durables 32.2 30.9 37,9 37.2 49,5 43.7 51.1 52.5 54.2 60.2 60.3 61.8 Durables 13.7 13, 21.8 23.0 24.0 23.4 22.9 75,i 24.5 27.5 29.1 29.6 Raw materials 41.3 42.2 47.4 59.3 78,3 78.1 93,6 96.7 93.9 108.3 113 8 123.2 Agriculture lna. i.. iln. 16.5 17.4 14.7 15.6 14.6 n.a. n.a. Tna. Tn. Industry and mining n.. nI. Ih, 42.8 60.9 63.4 78:0 87.1 n.a. Un,Ta. n,. Tna. Lubricants and fuels 12.5 11.8 13.9 15.4 13,8 13.3 14.2 8.3 11.9 14.9 18.1 24.8 Construetion materials 5.8 7.7 1,5 11.5 11.5 12.0 12.2 15.8 17.8 1_8.5 16.2 14.7 Capital goods 274 291 75 4.7 42. 9 4L0 49,6 57.9 57.3 61.4 74,3 76.6 Agrticulture. 5 6.u (.i 7.3 7.0 6.9 5.5 6.8 5.5 5.7 6.6 8.3 Industry 1G.1 t.2 2ý.1 30.1 26,5 29.1 37-5 37.2 38.3 42,9 42.8 49.1 Transport and comunicHtionn 5.9 .5.3 18.3 )?.3 >6 0.0 1.6 23.9 13.5 :12.8 24,9 19.2 Unclassified 60.2 . 00 6.1 1.3 4,5 4.5 2.4 2.6 4.4 5.3 5.8 Source: Bank of Guatemala. Tible 3.4 CUATEMATA TMÅDE WITH OTIER CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES 1960 through 1972 (preliminary) (i n millions of U.S. dollars) 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Exports, f.o.b. 4.9 8.5 8.7 17.3 29.6 35.7 50.9 57.7 70.9 8,.8 1025 92.1 98.0 El Salvador 4.4 6.1 6.2 11.1 17.1 19.6 28.5 28.7 32.5 37.5 39.7 40.8 Honduras 0.4 1.3 1.7 3.5 5.4 6.6 7.2 9.4 12.7 17.1 27.8 8.9 Nicearagua - 0.3 0.7 2.3 4.4 5.2 7.9 10.6 11.3 12.3 14,9 16.7 Costa Rica 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.4 2.7 4.3 7.3 9.0 14.4 16.9 20.2 25.7 Imports, c.i.f. 7.6 8.8 11.1 i9.8 ?6.3 31,5 33.8 42.1 49.4 51.4 65.0 66.5 70.0 El Salvador 5.9 6.8 7.7 16.1 19.1 22.4 23,5 29.3 30.8 33.2 39.5 42.5 Ronduras 0.9 1.2 3.0 2.7 3.6 3..8 3.9 5.4 7.1 6,0 7.1 1.8 Nicaragua - 0.4 n. 5 ci.8 1.4 2.1 2.1 3.5 4.6 7.2 8.6 Costa Rica 0. 8 0.8 0.1 0, 2.8 3.9 4.3 5.3 8.0 7.5 11.2 13.6 Trade bnlance -2<7 -0.3 2. 6, 3.3 4,2 17.1 15.6 21. 5 32.4 37.5 2.6 28.0 ('iiade w 1. th o11 ei Cen» i:a American couitries as percentage of total trade) Exports 4.2 7.5 7.2 )1.2 17.5 18.6 22.3 28.3 30.4 31.9 34.4 32.! 29.0 Intports 6.1 6.2 4.8 i.5 13,0 14.0 15.3 17,0 19.1 19.6 22,3 21.0 20.8 (Yearly grcwth rates) Exports 73,5 2,6 98.9 71.1 20.6 42.6 13.4 22.9 18.2 22.3 -10.0 6.4 Imports 15.8 26.1 78.4 32.8 19.8 7.3 24.6 17.3 4.0 26.5 2.3 5.3 Source: Bank of Guatemala. Table 3.5: GUATEMALA -EXPORTS AND IMPORTS BY MAJOR DESTINATION AND ORIGI12 1956 1961, 1966, 19 1 1956 l19 6 1900 4,1 Exports, f.o.b. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 United States 71.5 53.3 31.0 30.6 European Common Market 20.2 23.6 21. 18.8 (West Germany) ( 8.9) (17.6) (13.4) (10.8) (Others) (11.3) ( 6.0) ( 8.1) ( 8.0) Other European Countries 3.7 6.4 9.3 7.2 Central America 1.3 ?78 22. 32.5 (El Salvador) ( 1.2) ( 5.6) (12.6) (1.-4) (Others) ( 0.1) ( 29) ( 9.9) 18 Japan 0.7 ? 8.6 6.9 Others 2.6 1.2 7.1 4.0 Imports, c.i.f. 100.0 100.0 100.0 10010 United States 67.3 47.4 42.3 32.8 European Common Market 11.6 19 15.6 172 (West Germany) ( 6 2) (LI) ( 8.7) (106) (others) ( 5.h) 5 ( 6 9) 6V1 Other European Countries 6.3 81 8.q 8A Central America 1.2 6 7 16.3 22,1 (El Salvador) ( 0.5) ( D1) (11.3) (4.423 (Others) (0.7) 1.6) (.o) (8 1) Japan 0.6 b9 7ji in Q Others n _ 1 9o 7.o Sourcet Bank of Guatemala. Table3: GUATIMALA - NUMBEi. CF TOIISTS BY COUNTY OU OiIGIN 1965 through 1972 (.i thousands of persons) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 North A4eica 46.6 49.3 60.6 64.0 67.6 63. 90.1 103.1 Canada 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.2 3.L 3.8 Mexico 8.1 9.4 11.3 13.1 14.6 13.3 20.5 22.2 U. 5. A. 37.0 38.3 h7.8 48.7 50.6 48.0 66.6 77.1 Central America 86.6 71.3 88.4 8.2 81..0 81.3 L4.h 193.9 South America 4. .5 6.2 7,0 8.4 8.14 114 13.5 Furope 8.6 10.9 13.2 1.5.5 16.9 1.6,6 27.1 31.9 Gernany 3.0 ?33 8.0 France 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.6 .3 5.6 Italy 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.7 2.4 3.0 S'pain 2.0 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 4.8 4.4 Switzerland 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.6 2.4 Others n.a. 3.3 3.5 4.5 h.6 4.9 7.7 8.5 Asia 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.7 3.1 3.0 Antillas 1eo 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.5 1.6 OtLerS 5.0 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.0 0.8 1.1 TOTA L 1. l k U. U 2.8 3d annual change (%) -.9.3 23.2 1.7 2.1 -2.5 37.5 45.8 Source: Direccion General de Migracion andý Guatemala Tourist Comm(sion (INGUAT). IV. EXTERNAL DEBT Table No. L.1 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1972: Repayable in Foreign Currency. 4.2 xternal P-uic eb ~utstanLdAingIL at the~ End1~ ofJ EachOi Perod (Profile)- Repayable in Foreign Currency. 4.3 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1972: (transactions) Repayable in Foreign Currency. 4.4 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1972: Repayable in Local Currency. 4.5 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1972: (transactions) Repayable in Local Currency. 4.6 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1972 and Projections 1973-79 (transactions): Repayable in Foreign Currency. 4.7 Reconciliation of the Net Total External Debt - Local and Foreign Currency (L96-72). Table 4.1: GUATEMALA -- EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1972 lf Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Debt Outstanding Source December 3 197 Disbursed nling onl undisbursed Privately held debt 331093 38 57 Suppliers 7, f60 7,56 (Spain) (2,824) (2,824) (<United Kingdom) (4,623) (4,623) (U.S..A.) ( 113) ( 113) Finaneial Institutions 24,871 30,335 (United Kingdom) ( 346) ( 346) (U.S.A.) (24,525) (29,989) Privately placed borids 662 662 (Canada) ( 36) ( 36) (U.S.A.) ( 595) ( 595) (Multiple Lenders) ( 31) ( 31) Loans from IntemationalO zations 2r639 82' IBRD 21,4TÍ h7, 290 IDB 4,676 6,013 BCIE 2f 21,419 28,903 Loans from Governments 22å 355 69 698. U. S. A. 2 9,% ,698 TOTAL EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT 1_0087 190,461 De/bt with an original or extended maturity of over one year, unadju,sted[ for the currenrcy realignmEent. 2/ Contral American Bank for Eceonomnic Integratiom Toner: IH Lrxbt1 H-?nnain ystem.~ GUATEMALA ~ EXTENA,L PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING AT TIfE EN) OF EACH PERIOD lf 2f Debt Repayable in Foreign (Qrrency Average' Average Average Amount Interest Grace Maturity 1 oonUof U rate _ Period ers Peod ea s 1965 85.7 5.18 2.8 14.9 1966 96.2 5.11 3.2 16.7 1967 132.6 5.45 3.2 17.0 1968 157.7 5.44 3.9 18.8 1969 1. 0 5,54 4.0 19.3 1970 179M 5.i 4.9 22.2 1.971 1.85, ' 4.8o 5.4 24.0 1972 .- h.78 5.8 25.4 1/ Includes private debt tdth government guarantee. 2/ Debt with an or:i 1inal or cxtended maturity of over one year, unadjusted for Ao.currency realIBgnebt. Source: IBRD Debt Report:Lng System. Table h.3 : GUATEALA: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1972 DEBT REPAYAGLE IN FOREIQN CURRENCY PAGE 1 (IN THOUSANDS OF UoS DOLLARS ) TOTAL D OEST 00STANDING TRANSACT1014S DURING PER103 OEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL- LATIONSP miiuwgr6"--c DrB0-u KURf-~EC0S A D JUST- YEAR DNLY UNDXSBURSEO NENTS MENTS P RC TIf r- M10AL MENTS (1) (2) (3) (4) <5) (6> (7) (8) 1965 46p141 76p453 190698 20o171 9"627 20154 11,781 -i 1966 56p332 86p523 24.737 13o894 11o658 3p092 149750 -20597 1967 58p567 97p005 50s466 344795 131811 Jo497 179309 0413 1968 79j549 133p247 45i604 30,717 16>095 4s819 20p914 "585 1969 94o103 162p251 16>970 18o982 18,896 54190 249086 -8p7971 11970 94*189 151.528 49.774 36o977 20o551 6407 26#958 '653 1971 110p615 180098 29.940 22o303 20o163 7k1646 27p811 .324 11972 112.756 189#551 41i212 320232 34900 6#829 41P729 -5j402 1973 1100087 190.461 28o472 11725 6090 171815 '365 11974 1269469 178p371 17p835 131237 6k529 19.767 C 1975 131p642 165.134 13400 10o265 6s526 161791 1976 1349777 154p869 Bo550 9o569 6t450 16#019 1977 133#764 1459300 - 6488 9,322 6s259 15p582 1978 130p929 1359977 4A355 7o581 51990 13o571 1979 127p703 125.396 413 7o934 5,736 13,669 1980 120p183 120p463 160 8o042 5s334 13.376 1981 112p301 112p421 120 81451 4t917 13p368 1982 103t969 103,969 j* 8111 4o447 12o555 1983 95.858 95.858 " 6o733 41054 10;787 1994 139.125 89.125 6o225 3,715 9.940 1985 82900 82p900 6d>163 Jj-392 9.554 1986 76P737 76p737 6.220 31070 9P290 1987 70o517 70p517 '5oW0 2o751 8p557 1988 64,711 649711 "5793 21455 8.249 1989 58.918 58p918 - 5o853 2ols 8t012 1990 53.065 53p065 ° 5o971 1.857 7828 1991 47o093 47p093 6o006 14-548 7,555 1992 4;i p 08Y 419067 - 4p233 1258 5s492 NOTJE: DEBT WIUH A MATURITY OF OVER ONE YEAR. INCLUDDS ALL DE33T LYTED IN TABLE 41 PEPARED JU1 15, 1973, EXCEPT ICÄNS FROMI INTEMATIONAL OXGANIZATINS (BCIE) FOR $349 THOUSAN0D FOR WfICH REPAYENT TER1 ARE NOT AVAILABLE. THE DATA AVE NOT BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE CURRECY REALIGNMENT. Source: IRD Debt. Reportinw System. Table 4.3: GUATEMALA: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31>1972 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY PAGE 2 (IN THOUSANDS OF UoSö OULLARS) SUPPLIERS DE9T OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELm LATIONS, DISBRSED INCLUDING COMMIT0 01SBURSE-SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTo YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED M,NTS MENTS PRINCIPAL 1ElRiST TOTAL MENTS (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1965 3>7P 3>978 ° 530 530 1966 3448 3448 722 544 168 732 1967 2,903 3625 34d 772 161 933 1968 2>479 21b53 306 753 121 874 ca 1969 2jC31 2>099 43 914 80 994 215 1970 1P160 1,160 3p156 709 40 749 1971 451 3607 5>184 8-340 400 173 573 0 1972 gj391 6,391 831 610 1,441 1973 7>560 7:,560 813 527 1,340 1974 61,747 61747 - 728 472 1.200 1975 6>019 6p019 * 757 419 1s176 1976 5o262 5>262 789 364 1p152 1977 4473 4 473 ' 623 3U6 1>129 1978 3j651 3#651 - 859 247 1t105 1979 ?o792 2>792 898 184 1>082 1980 1oP94 10694 - 939 119 1>058 1981 955 955 955 51 1,006 Table L: T4IALA: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEGT AS OF DECEMBER 31p1972 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY PAGE 3 (IN THOUSANDS OF UeSå DOLLARS) PRIVATE DANKS DEST OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELG LATiONS, DISBURSED INCLUDING C-101mT IS81URSE SERVI~CE PAYMENT5 ADJUST YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS 1MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS (1) 2) 3) (45) (6) c7 (8) 1965 14p056 20P992 5>233 3,720 5>477 712 6p189 1966 11>947 20748 5>262 3>57 4 5190 655 5,845 129447 196,7 10>330 189373 1p919 1,911 3p996 561 4p557 1968 8245 16>296 12>135 9>938 3>775 736 4>511 t226 1969 14>403 24p430 13>190 6#359 4>397 1p413 5p810 £94'006 1970 16>365 29>223 19>662 25>437 6143 2>156 8>299 01 1971 35>658 42>741 4p746 3p426 9496 2>868 12>364 - 1972 29,589 37p991 18>284 16>300 22>664 2>368 25>052 C4P923 1973 23>224 28>688 5,464 3p988 1754 5>741 - 1974 24p700 24 700 ° 5p164 1o781 6o945 1975 19>537 19537 4>464 1>438 5o923 0 1976 15>052 15>052 4o027 1>121 5-148 1977 11>025 11p025 - a 2,604 849 3t453 1978 8>421 8>421 1*684 660 2,344 1979 6>737 6737 1p684 521 2>205 1980 5>053 5o053 1684 382 2p066 1981 39368 3>368 1>684 243 1p927 1982 1p684 1p664 " 1>684 104 1p7883 4 .3: G UATEMIALA: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEMBIER 31p1972 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY PAGE 4 (IN THOUSANOS OF UoSå DOLLARS) PRIVATELY PLACED BONDS DEST OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS OURING PERIOD BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCELa LATIONSo DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIxT- DISBURSE- _ E tiVULKC. ME-.T S ADJUS T YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MEN TS (1) (2) (3) (4) (5 (607 8 1965 3>000 3>000 10p052 10>052 172 1ö5 357 1966 12p8a0 1,2>ö80 6k1196 6> 196 2>117 82 2>999 1967 16,959 16p959 18>500 1di500 4p732 1>347 6o079- 1968 30>726 30>726 7>000 7j00l 7,074 1.967 9J041 '12 1969 30>640 30>640 8>375 1>7ö1 10>156 1970 22>265 22>265 16 16 8>432 1>251 9>683 1971 13> 49 13,'bö 9 6>434 751 7 o1b5, 1972 7>416 7>416 6p754 304 7j058 1973 662 6 62 144 26 170 "16 1974 50? 502 133 20 153 1975 369 36 - 123 14 137 1976 246 246 123 8 131, 1977 123 123 123 3 5 26 Table .3: GUATEMALA: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DIEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31o1972 OET REPAYAGILE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY PAGE 5 (IN THOUSANDS OF U.. DOLLARS) OTHER PRIVATE FINANCIAL INSTo DEIT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIO0 BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL- LAT I ON S DiSURSED INCLUDING coMmIT OISBURSE SERV1CL PA YMENT S ADJUST- YEAR ONLY UNOISBURSE1 MENTS MENTS PRI NCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL mENTs (1> (2) (3) (4) ( ) (6) (7) (8) 1967 27d7 2o787 1968 2>787 2.787 - - 196 205 401 1969 2>591 2o591 211 190 401 1970 23b0 2p38< 8 227 174 401 1971 2, 154 2p154 ' - 244 13b 382 1972 1>910 1>910 2 263 138 401 197 3 1.647 1>647 283 118 401 1974 1> 364 1>364 304 97 40 1 1975 1>060 J>060 - 328 73 401 1976 732 732 - 353 48 401 1977 379 379 379 21 401 EXT14NAL MUbLIG DtUI Ab UP LULM 31D1Yr2 Table ).3: I ATEMALA: DE8T REPAYALE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY ~~ PAGE 6 IN THOUSANDS OF UoSö DOLLARS LOANS FROM INTL. ORGANIZATIUNS DEEIT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS OURING PERIOD BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL- LA TIO N S DISBURSED INCLUDING COMNIT- DISBURSE SER1XL PAYMENTS ADJUSTe YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PR INCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) C6) (7) (8) 1965 1713 1966 1>713 4>737 10488 18 49 67 1967 1>470 6>432 5>86U 2>68u 80 101 181 1968 4070 12 212 4>649 2>546 84 251 335 1969 6>53? 16>777 3p150 4>170 439 250 669 M573 1970 10?6? 18>915 1>840 4>913 237 590 827 449 1971 14p939 201069 4>510 4>409 195 910 1>105 m 197? 19>153 24>3ö4 5.328 3>u75 808 1>018 1>826 fl1 1973 21>419 28>903 3>818 1>091 1>074 2p165 -349 1974 231>797 27>463 2>077 1>135 1#239 2>373 1975 24>740 26>329 1>519 1>178 1290 2>468 a 1976 25p080 25>150 7u 1>4615 1>301 2>768 a 1977 23>683 23>683 1>617 1>218 2>834 - 1978 22>066 22>066 1>608 1,126 2>734 1979 20>458 20>458 10608 1#034 2>642 1980 18P849 18>649 1>444 945 2p389 1981 17P405 17>405 1>434 866 2p300 l 1982 15>971 15>971 1>423 767 2>211 0 1983 14>548 14>5448 1>423 709 2p133 1984 13>124 13>124 1>178 635 1>813 a 1985 11>946 11>946 1>178 574 1p752 1986 10>768 10>768 1>178 513 1>691 1987 9>590 9>590 1>176 452 1,630 - 1988 8>41? 8>412 10056 393 1p449 m 19 M9 7> 356 7 > 356 l 996 339 1> 3 35 1990 60360 6>360 994 2d 1>262 1991 5>366 5>366 - 994 236 1>230 1 992 4> 37? 4. 372 86,3 1 5 1: 047 : GUATEMALA: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEiBT AS OF DECEMBER 31> 1972 DEiBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CuRRENCY PAGE 7 (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) LOANS FROM INTL. ORGANIZATIONS I BRD DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD BEGINNING oF PERIOD CANCEL- LAT IOCNS DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT® oSBURSE SERVICL PAYMENT5 ADJUSTO YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTs () (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1965 10>340 10 340 1533 460 1>993 1966 8>8u7 8'b07 - 1>604 386 1>990 1967 7,203 7>203 15p000 1>015 1p679 312 1>991 da 1 96 6>539 20>520 13p300 3>733 1 p75 8 236 1 994 4 1969 8p514 32p066 5>017 1>840 153 1l993 1970 11691 30>226 * 4000 1926 812 2>738 1971 13>765 28>300 4>000 3>732 445 1>373 1p818 1972 17>052 31>855 16>000 5p057 565 1>234 1p799 1973 21>544 47>290 5>819 580 1>427 2o007 1974 26>783 46>710 5>534 620 1p716 2>336 1975 31>697 46>090 4>882 655 2>065 2>720 1976 35>924 45P435 3p767 945 2>362 3307 1977 38>746 44P490 39035 2P077 2>543 4520 1978 39p704 42>413 2>056 2>142 2614 4>756 - 1979 39>619 40>272 .373 2>447 20608 5>055 - 1980 37>545 37>825 160 2p532 2p466 4p998 1981 35,9 173 35.293 - 120 2>627 2.304 4f930 198 3?>667 32>667 fl 2>727 2p131 4>858 1983 29>940 29p940 2>847 1P946 4.793 1984 27>093 27 093 2>962 1p751 4s713 1985 24>132 24.132 ' 3>077 1>551 4k628 19 21o055 21055 3» 222 1, 342 4p564 1987 17-833 17o833 2,807 1 135 3>941 0 1986 150027 15>027 20917 947 3.864 a 1989 12p110 12>110 3>037 754 3>790 1990 9:073 9>073 3p157 553 3 710 - 1991 5.917 51917 3 192 346 3>537 ,192 ? 725 2o725 1>55n 157 1*707 TFIMAT FT: EXTERNAL ULIC LT AS OF ECEMBER 31> 1972 DEST REPAYAbLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY PAGE 6 ( IN THOUSANDS OF UoSe oLLARS) LOANS FROM INTLø ORGANIZATIONS los G;EBT OUTSTANDXNG TRANSACTXONS DURING PER100 BE,GINNING 0F PERiOD CA i C E L L AT 1 ONS DISBURSED INCLU0ING CMMIT®i DISBURSE"m 4ERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUST YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED ME NTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS (1) ( 2) (3) (4) (S) ( ) (7) C ) 1965 1'A16 7>180 1,b71 323 167 490 1966 3> 364 6 ' 57 3,200 a 32 370 231 601 - 149 1967 3827 9>438 2>0'i 683 275 958 '330 1968 5>187 8,425 1>045 629 301 930 " 348 1969 5>601 7>448 734 543 241 784 1970 5>793 6>906 202 63d 347 985 1971 5>357 6>268 96 65b 319 977 1972 4>795 5>610 1 600 599 718 295 1>013 -479 1973 4>676 6I013 477 517 257 775 1974 4>636 5>496 272 354 246 600 1975 4>553 5>141 200 383 233 617 1976 4> 376 4 75b - 160 413 217 630 1977 4>125 4>345 112 413 200 612 1978 3p825 3,933 - 108 413 1$1 593 1979 3,520 3>520 413 161 574 1980 3>107 3>107 - - 413 139 551 1981 2>695 2>695 413 116 529 1982 2282 2,282 - 413 94 506 1983 11870 1>870 413 71 484 1984 1> 457 1> 457 - 323 4t 371 1985 1>134 1>134 :145 34 179 1986 989 989 58 29 87 1987 931 9 31 58 27 86 1988 87373 ' 3 58 26 84 1989 815 015 58 2 4 82 1990 756 756 - 58 22 80 1991 698 56 21 79 19 9 6 40 640 - 58 19 7 Table h.3: LUATDIA: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEST AS OF DECEMBER 3:1L1972 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY PAGE 9 (IN THOUSANDS OF U*Se DOLLARS) LOANS FROM INTLe ORGANIZATIONS DEST OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL- LAT IONSp DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT' ISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTø YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED M ENTS M ENTS PtIW RINiTiEST TOTAL MENTs (1) (2) C3) (5) (6) (7) () 1965 12>156 17P420 1>713 1>871 1>856 627 2>483 1966 12171 17,277 7>937 2'32U 1>992' 666 2>658 149 1967 12'500 23>073 20>60 5>73b 2j442 6b 3>130 °334 1968 15>796 41>157 17>949 7>324 2ø471 78 3p259 °344 1969 20>647 56>291 3p150 9>921 2ø822 644 3p466 572 1970 27>746 56>047 11>840 9>115 2>801 1p749 4P550 449 1971 34>061 54>637 1>510 8>237 1>298 2s6U2 3>900 1972 41>000 61>849 22p928 8>731 2>091 2>547 4>638 °480 1973 47'63 Q 82>206 10> 114 2> 186 2>758 4p946 °349 1974 55>216 79>669 7>683 2>109 3>201 5>310 1975 60>990 77p560 6>609 21217 3>588 5>805 1976 65>382 75>343 3>997 2-825 3>881 6,706 - 1977 66p554 72>518 3p147 4>106 3P961 8p067 1978 65>595 68>412! 2p164 4>163 3>9210 8>083 1979 63>596 64>249 373 4>466 3,803 8.271 1980 59-502 59>782 160 4 388 3>550 7>938 1981 55>273 55>393 1 120 4>473 3p2d5 7>758 198? 50>920 50>920 4f563 30o12 7p575 1983 46>358 46>358 , 41 683 2>726 7p409 1984 41>675 41>675, 4.'462 2p435 6p897 1985 37>213 37>213 4>400 2>159 6p559 1986 32>813 32>13 4>456 1>8t5 6.343 1987 28>355 28>3551 41043 1> 614 5> 657 198p 24>312 24>312' f 4s031 :1>366 5p397 1989 20>2611 20>281 4,091 1>117 5,208 1990 16p190 16>190 4,209 863 5>072 1991 11p981 11'981 ° 4>244 602 4,846 19Q2 7>737 7 737 2>471 360 2p831 'Tble ),3: GUATMFrALA: EXTERNAL PUBLIC OEBT AS OF DECEMBER 31>1972 DEDT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY PAGE 10 IN THOUSANDS OF UoSc DOLLARS LOANS FROM GOVERNMEINTS 1EBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS OURING PERI00 BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEt LAT I ON S DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT® DISBURSE SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTo YFAP ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS (1l) ( 2) (.3) (4) (5 ) 6 ) ( 7) (8) 1965 12>951 31PO63 2,700 4>52b 1>592 630 2p222 -1 1966 150886 32p170 4,620 1>04 1>615 701 2>516 1967 15>P75 34p975 6.4U0 59511 1>869 740 2>609 -78 1968 19>516 39>428 b*6W0 6o149 1>826 1>002 2>828 1969 23>791 46>200 630 20659 2>177 1>'0b2 3>259 4>200 1970 24>273 40>453 25,P1U0 2>409 2;239 1>037 3o276 0204 1971 24*t14? 63>110 11p500 2>300 :2p291 1>116 3>407 "325 197? 24>450 71>994 7p201 2>297 842 3>139 1 1973 29>355 69>698 - 12,194 4>309 907 59216 1974 37p940 659389 9> 952 4>799 960 5>759 1975 43,667 60>589 6p791 2p356 993 3>350 1976 48p102 58p233 - 4P559 1>452 1902b 2>480 1977 51p209 56p781 39341 l>287 1>119 2p406 1978 53>?63 55P494 2>191 875 1>163 2>039 1979 54>579 54>619 40U 8tb4 1>227 2>111 1980 539734 53,734 1p030 1>2ö2 2>313 1981 52>704 52>704 1>339 1>337 2p677 198? 51*365 51>365 1p864 1>330 3195 1983 499500 49p500 2>051 1p327 3>378 1984 47>450 47p450 1>763 102b0 3>043 1985 45>687 45>687 l " 1>763 1>233 2>995 1986 43>925 43>925 o 1>763 1>185 2o947 1987 42>162 42>162 1>763 1p137 2>900 1988 40*u00 40>400 - '" 1763 1*0b9 2>852 1989 38>637 38,637 1>763 1j041 2>804 1990 36>875 36p875 1>763 994 2o756 1991 35>112 35>112 1>763 946 2>709 1992 33, 349 33>349 - 1>763 898 2p661 TI?la U e u TA'rl AA =EXVMTRNAT TTITTC T nTYUi'TiITN AQ Fn1 E B 3 ,C7 DEPT RPAYATE Tn LCAL CURENMY I T-h - SADTTSAMric, oP TT S TTLA )P Aa. £~ V r. ''& 0irJ.a4M W- c - SC[RCE UNDISc- DIBUBE -rQURSE ý-W ý D mT,TAL BCIE 3,603 450 4,053 IDB 4l,313 20,é62 62,175 LOANS FROM INTL. ORGANIZATIONS 44,516 21,312 66,228 TOTAL EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT ,916 21,312 66,226 Not.e: uett with a maturity of over one year. >ource: IBRD Debt Reporting System. Table 4.5 GUATFMJE -EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECEUER 31, 1972 Page 1 DEBT REPAYA'BLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY (IN THOUSANDS OrF US DOLLARS ) 101TAL DEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANICIEL- ALATIONS, DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSED SERVIC PAYMENTS ADJUST- YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS (I) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1965 1>719 13>651 3o21 91 115 209 1 1966 40846 13,559 7,:220 2,045 267 l6d 435 50 1967 6>674 20>562 10p073 4,137 420 2ö6 706 -303 196m 10>393 29>912 7,118 4>399 4d3 423 906 1 1969 14p309 36>548 19>000 6>264 553 542 1>095 197o 20>019 54,994 15p960 10,233 947 742 1>689 -3 1971 29>309 70p004 7>7ö 8,915 1>04u 19209 2,249 9-501 1972 37>184 67-243 1>280 9>305 1>574 1>4b1 3>055 721 1973 44,916 66>228 7>997 2p816 1>1ö5 4>001 -274 1974 49>823 63>138 - 5>371 2p914 1>252 4#166 1975 52#2m0 60,224 - 3,497 3>133 1>401 4,534 - 1976 52>643 57,090 - 2p513 3-232 1o 52 4.764 - 1977 51>924 53p858 1436 3p253 1o532 4,785 1978 50p107 50>605 ° 46d 3-20 1>478 4,747 1979 47>3 C6 47p336 3 3>222 1 395 4>617 198o 44p115 44>115 - 3,239 1>300 4p538 1981 40p676 40>876 - 3>257 12u3 4>40 19m2 37o620 37>620 3 3,254 1p106 4p359 1983 34, 366 34>366 - 3P 252 1>00 4,260 1984 31 114 31>114 3o270 911 4,181 1985 27 P44 27,844 2>912 813 3>725 1986 24>932 24.932 2 >923 727 3s650 1987 2?00S 22>008 - - 2>934 640 3#574 1988 19>074 19>074 " - 2>923 553 3p476 1989 16p11 16,151 - o 2,652 467 3>119 1990 13>499 13#499 - - 2,526 369 2,914 1991 10,974 10,974 2k53 311 2R849 1992 8>436 8>436 >129 233 2,363 NXTE: DEBT WITH A MATURITY OF OVER ONE YEAR. INCLUDE ALL DEBTS LISTE) IN TARLE . PREYPR JUNE 1 , 197 7. Table .5 : UATrNMA -Iei.NAL IJEC u1BT As UF DE1CM4ER '1, -2 PAGE 2 DEBT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY (IN THOUSANOS OF UoS DDLLARS) LOANS FROM INTLo ORGANIZATIONS OCI1E DEBT nuTSTANniNG TRANSACTICINS DURING PERIOU BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL- LATIONSP DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT T DISBURSE ____ RESLL E-.fAlVtTS ADJUSTf YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS ( ) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1967 '1> 73 ' 1 1 1968 1073 1I116 400 " 01 1969 400 2 i90 ' 524 1970 924 2>1940 46U 1u024® 70 70 1971 1p9-8 2>651 1>1b0 95 5 119 119 -1 19)72 2-906 3p830 2b0 7545 158 216 1973 3>603 4p053 - 45I 14.3 191 334 1974 3>910 3p910 185 204 3 ö 9 1975 3>725 3>725 196 194 389 1976 3-530 3>530 235 1ö3 418 1977 3>294 3>294 * 242 170 412 1978 3>053 3ou53 242 157 399 1979 2>811 2#811 180 145 325 1910 2>631 2p63.1 180 136 316 1981. 2 4 51 2>451 180 126 306 198 2 71 2p271 8160 117 297 1983 2092 2>092 ItiO 1u7 287 1984 1>912 1>912 1t0 Vb 278 1985 1073? 1>732 161 d9 269 1986 10551 1>551 - 182 79 261 1987 1>369 1>369 183 69 252 - 1988 1>186 1,186 159 60 219 19839 1>027 1>027 ' 146 52 198 1990 881 681 - '" 146 44 190 1991 736 736 - 146 37 183 1992 59590 - 146 29 175 Table .: GUATEMAIAL -EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT AS OF DECWBER 31, 1972 PAGE 3 DEOT REPAYABLE IN LOCAL CURRENCY (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) LOANS FROM INTL. ORGANIZATIONS 108 OEBT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS DURING PERIOD BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL. LAT 10 N S E DISBURSED INCLUDING COMMIT" ISBURSE- SERVICE PAYMENTS ADJUSTe YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL MENTS (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1965 1>719 13p651 3>219 91 116 209 1 1966 4p846 13p559 7p22u 2>045 267 16 435 50 1967 6>674 20>562 9>000 4> 137 420 265 705 »303 1968 10p393 28>b39 6>000 3>999 483 423 906 2 1969 13,909 34,358 19>000 5>140 553 542 1>095 1 1970 19s095 52>604 15>500 9>209 947 672 1>619 4 1971 27>361 67>353 6>600 7>957 1>040 1P090 2>130 -99500 1972 34>278 63>413 1>000 8>551 1p516 1p323 2>839 °722 1973 41o313 62,175 7#547 2>673 994 3,667 274 1974 45>913 59>228 - 5>371 2>729 1>04b 3-777 - 1975 L8,8554 56P498 - 3>497 2p931 1P207 4o145 - 1976 49>114 53,561 2>513 2>-997 1>369 4j366 1977 -48>s30 50>564 1>436 3>012 1>362 4>373 1978 47>054 47p552 - 46b 3>027 1>321 4>348 1979 44>495 44>525 * 30 3p042 1p250 4>292 1980 41>484 41>484 - 3,059 1p164 4>223 1981 36>425 38p425 3.o077 1>077 4>153 198? 35>348 35p348 3>074 909 4>063 1983 32x274 32p274 0 " 3>072 901 3>973 1984 29>?0? 29p202 - - 3>090 813 3>903 1985 26>112 26>112 2,731 725 3>456 1986 23>381 23>381 .29741 646 3>389 1987 20>639 20>639 - 2-1e51 570 3p 322 1988 7 17,8 17.o86 2>764 493 3*257 19M9 15p1 24 15 124 0 2>5u b 415 2>921 19Q90 1?618 12 18 - 2>380 344 2,724 1Q91 10 ?3& 10,23 ' 2,392 274- 2.666 i JQ 2 7.".h 6 7.ih- 1,9l 3 2.1 faie. GUAT JÅALA -EXTERNAL PUBLIC DFBT AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1972 PAGE h DEBT REPAYA8LE IN LOCAL CURRENCY ( IN THOUSANDS OF U.Sö DULLARS) LOANS FROM INTL. ORGANIZATION$ DEPT OUTSTANDING TRANSACTIONS OURING PERIOD BEGINNING OF PERIOD CANCEL- LAT IONS, DISBURSED INCLUDING COmMIT" )ISBURSE- _ H É AlRETS ADJUST YEAR ONLY UNDISBURSED MENTS MENTS PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL HENTS <1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (61 (7) (8) 1965 1>719 13p651 3>219 91 209 -1 1966 4p946 13.559 7>220 2PU4b 267 168 435 50 1967 6o674 20o562 10,073 4s13? 420 2b6 7036 303 1968 10p393 29>912 7>11 4>399 483 423 906 1 1969 14,309 36>548 19,000 6p264 553 542 1>095 197o 20,r19 54.-994 15p960 10p233 947 742 1>689 -3 1971 29>309 70>004 7:760 8d91> 1>04u 1>209 2,249 -9.501 197? 37p134 67>243 1>280 9p305 1>574 1>481 3>055 -721 1973 44>916 66j228 7p997 20816 1>165 4>001 '274 19714 49>#23 63o138 5p371 2>914 1>252 4i166 1975 52>?80 609224 3;497 3o133 1>401 4>534 - 1976 52>643 57>090 - 2p513 3>232 1>552 4>784 1977 51.924 53>5ö 1,436 3>253 1,532 4>785 1978 50#107 50p605 46b 3p268 1>478 4 747 1979 47>306 47>336 3u 3#222 1>395 4>617 1980 4-115 44>115 - 3p239 1p300 4>538 1981 40p976 40>876 - 3o257 1>203 4#460 1982 37#620 37>620 - 3>254 1>106 4>359 1983 34#366 34>366 3p252 1>008 4,260 1984 31> 14 31>114 ' 3>270 911 4k181 1985 27,44 27844 - 2>912 613 3,725 - 18f 24>932 24>932 - 2>923 727 3o650 - 1987 2>008 22,00d 2p934 640 3p574 - 1988 19,074 19>074 2p923 553 3#476 19Q 16>151 16>151 2>652 467 3p119 1990 13,a99 13 499 - 2>526 3b9 2o914 1991 10.Q74 10>974 2x538 311 2>849 192 P 436 8p436 2p129 233 2o363 Table 4.3: GUATEMALA -EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY 1965 through 1972 and projected 1973-79 (Tn t*iowqzvi.q of TTqr~ 1 (I) INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS Page 1 of 3 pages Debt Outstanding Beginning of Period Transactions during Period Cancel- lations Disbursed Including Commit- Disburse- Service payments.Adjust- Year Only Undisbursed ments ments Principal interest Total ments (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1965 12,156 17,420 1,713 1,871 1,856 627 2,483 - 1966 12,171 17,277 7,937 2,320 1,992 666 2,658 -149 1967 12,500 23,073 20,860 5,738 2,442 688 3,130 -334 1968 15,796 41,157 17,949 7,324 2,471 788 3,259 -344 1969 20,647 56,291 3,150 9,921 2,822 644 3,466 -572 1970 27,746 56,047 1,840 9,115 2,801 1,749 4,550 -449 1971 34,061 54,637 8,510 8,237 1,298 2,602 3,900 - 1972 41,000. 61,849 22,928 8,731 2,091 2,547 4,638 -480 1973 47,639 82,206 20,500 12,150 2,200 2,800 5,000 -39 1974 57,550 100,467 53,000 17,670 2,100 3,259 5,359 1975 73,120 151,367 49,000 26,300 2,200 4,059 6,259 1976 97,220 198,167 59,800 33,535 2,800 4,926 7,726 - 1977 127,955 255,167 62,000 40,690 4,100 6,125 10,225 1978 164,545 313,067 46,000 47,330 4,528 7,596 12,124 - 1979 207,348 354,539 46,000 50,175 6,045 9,550 15,595 1980 251,478 394,494 49,680 50,987 6,978 11,562 18,540 1981 295,486 437,196 53,654 51,395 8,736 13,485 22,221 1982 338,145 482,114 57,947 51,880 10,794 15,303 26,097 - Table 4.6: GUATEMALA--EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY 1965 through 1972 and projected 1973-79 (In thousands of U.S. dollars) (II) GOVERNMENTS Page 2 of 3 pages Debt Outstanding Beginning of Period Transactions during Period -------- - Cancel- lations, Disbursed Including Commit- Disburse- Service payments Adjust- Year Only Undisbursed ments ments Principal interest Total ments (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1965 12,951 31,063 2,700 4,528 1,592 630 2,222 -1 1966 15,886 32,170 4,620 1,804 1,815 701 2,516 - 1967 15,875 34,975 6,400 5,511 1,869 740 2,609 -78 1968 19,516 39,428 8,600 6,149 1,826 1,002 2,828 -2 1969 23,791 46,200 630 2,659 2,177 1,082 3,259 -4,200 1970 24,273 40,453 25,100 2,409 2,239 1,037 3,276 -204 1971 24,442 63,110 11,500 2,300 2,291 1,116 3,407 -325 1972 24,450 71,994 - 7,201 2,297 842 3,139 1 1973 29,355 69,698 5,700 13,755 4,300 900 5,200 45 1974 38,855 71,143 9,000 18,775 4,800 1,026 5,826 - 1975 46,830 75,343 10,000 11,690 2,400 1,109 3,509 - 1976 56,120 82,943 10,000 11,255 1,500 1,256 2,756 - 1977 65,875 91,443 10,000 11,505 1,300 1,555 2,855 - 1978 76,080 100,143 10,000 11,620 900 1,901 2,801 - 1979 86,800 109,243 10,000 9,900 900 2,184 3,084 - 1980 95,800 118,343 10,800 10,120 1,000 2,581 3,581 - 1981 104,920 128,143 11,664 10,450 1,300 2,885 4,185 - 1982 114,069 138,507 12,597 10,966 1,900 3,198 5,098 - Table 4.,6: GUATEMALA - EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY 1965 through 1972 and projected 1973-79 (In thousands of U.S. dollars) (III = I + I:0 Total Page 3 of 3 pages Debt Outstanding Beginning of Period Transactions during Period ___ ___- -- Cancel- lations, Disbursed Including Conmnit- Disburse- Service payments Adjust- Year Only Undisbursed ments ments Principal interest Total ments (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1965 46,141 76,453 19,698 20,171 9,627 2,154 11,781 -1 1966 56,332 86,532 24,737 13,894 11,658 3,092 14,750 -2,597 1967 58,567 97,005 50,466 34,795 13,811 3,497 17,308 -413 1968 79,549 133,247 45,684 30,717 16,095 4,819 20,914 -585 1969 94,103 162,251 16,970 18,982 18,896 5,190 24,086 -8,797 1970 94,189 151,528 49,774 36,977 20,551 6,407 26,958 -653 1971 110,615 180,098 29,940 22,303 20,163 7,648 27,811 -324 1972 112,756 189,551 41,212 32,232 34,900 6,829 41,729 -5,402 1973 110,087 190,461 26,200 31,405 11,700 6,100 17,800 49 1974 129,805 205,010 62,000 30,445 13,200 6,685 19,885 - 1975 147,050 253,810 59,000 37,990 10,300 7,068 17,368 - 1976 174,740 302,510 69,800 44,790 9,600 7,682 17,282 - 1977 209,930 362,710 72,000 52,195 9,300 8,780 18,080 - 1978 252,825 425,410 56,000 58,950 8,028 10,397 18,426 1979 303,748 473,382 56,000 60,075 9,545 12,434 21,979 - 1980 354,278 519,837 60,480 61,107 10,578 14,643 25,221 1981 404,806 569,739 65,318 61,844 12,636 16,669 29,305 - 1982 454,014 622,421 70,544 62,846 14,394 18,601 32,995 - /1 Includes the debt as of December 31, 1972 to suppliers, Private Banks, Privately placed bonds and other Private Financial Institutions. Source: IBRD Debt Reporting System Table 4.3 and mission projections. Table 4.7: RCONILIATION OF IHE NET TO'TL EXTERNAL EBT, 1965 through 1972 (In millions of US dolLrs) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 PUBLIC SECTOR /1 I. ERS debt repayable in local and foreign currency 13.7 4.0 24.7 18.5 5.8 25.7 10.0 5.1 I. Table 5.6, part A (external financing, net) 11.3 3.0 22.9 16.7 2.2 27.8 8.5 10.7 III. Difference (= IE - II = Ä + B) 2.4 1.0 1.8 1.8 3.6 -2.1 1.5 -5.6 A. ItS entities not covered in Table 5 .5 2.7 1 .6 0.6 3.,5 0.9 -0.7 3.3 -h.h Central Bank ~2~ Ö3 -U. 6 -3 T ~T ~ -3 ~3 Credit Hip. Nac. - 0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 - INFOM - - - - - .. - 0.2 INFOP -0.1 -0.1 - -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 - -0.2 AVIATECA - - - - - - 5.6 -0.6 Private with Pub] i c Guarantoc - 1.0 0.h 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -02 - 0,5 B. Stat-istical Dicrepanicy /2 -0.3 -0.6 1.? --1.,7 9.7 -1.h -1.8 -1.2 BALINCE OF PAYMEMTS 1. DRS debt repayable in Iocal and foreign currency 13.7 4.0 24.7 18,.5 5.8 25.7 10.0 5.1 II. Less Disbursment in local currericy Plus Ainortiz ation :in local. currEncy 0.1 0.3 0.4 o.5 o.6 0.9 0.7 05 III. (= I -I) 13.8 4.3 25.1 19.0 6.4 26.6 10.: 5.6 IV. Table 3.1, Part A (Public Sector plus Bank of Guatmala, net) 13.7 4.3 25.0 18.8 6.h 26.7 10.7 5.4 V. Statistical Discrepancy (= III - IV) 0.1 - 0.1 0.2 - -0.1 - 0.2 1 There am no discrepancies at the Central Goverrnent level betueen the IRS and Table 5.6, Part A. /2 Data on external financing in Table 5.5 were provided by the institutions. The DRS figures do not incide INVI. Source: Tables 3.1, 5.5, 5.6 and IFRD Debt Reporting System. V. PULIC FINA10E Table No. 5.1 Sumary of Central Govermmnt Operations Part A: 1965-72 Part B: 19731-72 and projected 1973-79. 5.2 Central Governmnt Current Rovenue Part A: 1965-72 Part B: 1971-72 and projected 1973-79. 5.3 Central Govcr~nt Current Zponditure by Sector Part Ag 1965-72 Part B: 1971-72 and projected 1973-79. 5.4 Central Goverm=nt Capital Expenditures by Sector Par"t A: 1968-72 Part 8: 1971-?2 and projectod 1973-79 5.5 Su~ Tranactions of the Autonomous Agenciea (RPS), 1965-72 5..6 Consolidated Public s ector Operation Part A: 1965-72 Par B 1971-72 an projecte 1973-79 Tale 5.1: GUATEMAIA - SUMMARY OF CENTRAL GOV=R ' OPERATIONS Part A: 1965 through 1972 (Preiminary) (In millions of Quetzales) 1965 1966 1967 1968 L969 1970 1971 1972 Current :Revenue 118.1 120.4 124.0 136.3 149,7 165.0 173.7 184.2 Current kp,rditure 96.8 109.4 118.5 118.8 1293 147.8 147,9 i5g,2 eurrert Surplus 22.0 11.0 5.5 17.5 20.4 17.2 25.8 25.0 Capital Receipts 11 1.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 Investnent RKye!nditure 34.8 26.6 29.8 25.6 30.0 28.6 34.2 52<2 (DTirect) (24.6) (16.9) (20.0) (18.2) (23.3) (22.0) (20.2) (39.5) (Transfers) Lo.2i ( 9 9.8) <7.4) ( 6)) 1.0 (12.7) Surplus on Deficit -11.7 -14.3 -22.1 -5.9 -7.¶ -0.6 -7.6 -26.6 xte!rnal Financing, net 2/ 10.0 1.7 L8.7 11.3 -1,7 23.,3 0.7 9.2 Bonds, net 10.0 10.9 =T r, ~~~1i (placement) (10.0) (6.2) (15.0) (7-0) (-) (-) (-) ( ) (amortization) ( - ) (-2.0) (-4.1) (-6.0) (-7.4) (-7.4) (-5.4) (-5.8) International Organi.zationB, net -0.3 -0.8 3.4 4.0 7.7 12.1 11.6 11.7 (disbursement) ( 1.2) ( 0.9) ( 5.3) ( 6.0) ( 9.8) (14,3) (12.1) (12.9) (amortization) (--.5) (-1.7) (-1.9) (-2.0) (-2.1) (-2-2) (-o.5) (-1.2) Governments, net 2.7 0.2 3.3 4.1 0.4 0.2 - 4.7 (disburisement) ('3.9) ( 1.6) ( 5.o) ( 9) ( 2.1) ( 2.4) ( 2.3) ( 7,0) (amiortization) (-1.2) (-1.4) (-1.7) (-1.8) (-2.1) (-2.2) (-2.3) (-2,3) Other Private, net -2.4 -1.9 1.1 2.2 -2.4 18.4 -5.5 -1,4 Domstic Financing, net 1.7 12.6 3.4 -5.1 9.2 -12,.7 6.9 17) ýLJ Baik of Guatemala, net If T~. ~9 Conrcial Banks, net -2.9 7.2 -3.0 1.2 -1.9 1.2 10.9 23.6 I Development Institutions, net -0.5 --0.4 - - 1.0 -0.1 1.1 0.5 Oth-r, net :2.3 --5.2 4.7 -3.6 4.2 -6.7 -1i.5 3.0 V / It does not include 18 million for the acquisition of EMpresas Electricas de Guatemrala. 2f Data from IBRD Debt Roporting Sy6tem Source: Ministry of Finance. 5,1 C2UykiWs,AT-A -.W RKE OF CENTR-L GOVEfLINST OPERV-TIO33 Part Ds 1972 (preiää-uy) and projectend 1,973-79 (I ralion of Qataales) t 173 7 1Ph2 2.'3 216.9 233 It 251.9 27i.5 292, 315.8d 25.8 25.0 27.2 29.6 3:9 35. 38.2 tm7 15.7 rpiiRcipe0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 L.0 L.0 1.0 Te mn Fpolitwa 34.2 52.2 58.9 6I.7 71.2 75.5 80.0 86.8 89.9 (20.2) (39.5) (6.) (48.5) (534) (5<6.6) (60.0) (63.6) (67.h) (Tr?erj 174 9 0 1).2 urpluo on Beficit -7.6 -26. -30.9 -34.3 -38.5 -39.4 40.8 42.1 43.2 trnal nancing, at 0_7 2,8- 171L 20.8 25.7 .8.9 30.5 32.0 Bous, net -5 - - - (PIV,omwt) (a,,,or-tization) (-5.4) (-5.8) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) Inten on raton .6 11.7 10.2 9.7 3.9 18.3 2.2 122.1 24.9 (0-n ( (-2.7) (13.) (.9) (17.4) (22.3) (25.3) (26.2) (29.3) (oriai)(-0.5) (-1.2) (-3.13) (-3.2) (1-3.5) (-4.0) (-4.1), (-4.1) (.) 0mrcnt, nes ?ot -1.0.9 (2 ) 9.. 9.4 8.9 9.5 9.8 1o 8.8 (i re n)(2.3) (7.0) (12.2) (O.U (n9 .3) (n1e0) (n.a) (1Lo.) ( 9.7) (wtsto)(-2.3) (-2.3) (-2-3) (-2.3) (-2.1) (-1.5) (-1.3) (ao.9) (-0.9) Wtr Private, 1&" 3f -64ý9 -L.. -1.2 -2.0 -2.0 c21 2.1 -1.7 -L17 masto oeng nt /6, . 2 c. 17 "å 2. n1- n11.2. Bank of Guat=Ala 94 (.7) Com,kýecal l~nk, not, 10.9 (23.6) 8.0 4.0 4.0 -.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 Deelp uIstätutio, fft L.1 o .5) other, rctual -14 .5 2.9 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Oap to be monwed - - 1.0 1.2 1.7 7.2 5.4 b.6 4.2 1/ It asa n c of U$ 10.5 zkiOn in 19y73 U 23 0 ai in 1.974, US$ 33.5 wJ-ion i 1975, US$ 51.8 fiiUoe in 1976, US$ 17.0 rilin in 1977, 28.0 Minion In 1978 and Us$ 38.0 inttUion in 1979. 2/ It aames naw arentsf Us$ 5.7 äd1nxion in 1973, US$ 9.0 iUien in 19711 nd Ms 10.0 rdIlton ech y thereafte-r. 3/ It a,2~o not new private Ioansw fromnå 1973 a E/ It avsmes that after the exceso liquidi,r ls over tä banklng system wLL provide a mor Lodera net increase filnancig to the governmnt. Source: Ministy of Finance and TBRD Mission projections 1973-79 Talble 5.2: GUATEMALA - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURENT REVENUE Part A: 1965 through 1972 (preliminary) (In inillions of Quetzales) 1965 1966 1967 1968 196 1970 1971 1972 TAX REVENUE 108.3 108.0 109.8 122.9 13.44 17.7 164.3 DLrct Taxe; 16.4 16.3 18.8 22.1 22.1 24,7 26.3 29.8 Income Tax 13.1 12.4 14.0 16.0 16.6 187 20.5 22.4 (Personal) ( - ) (3.0) ( 3.8) ( 3.7) ( 4.0) ( 4.3) ( 5.0) ( 5.5) (Company) (- ) (9.4) (10.2) (12.3) (12.6) (14.4) (15.5) (16.9) Property Tax 3.3 3.9 4.8 6.1 5.5 6.0 5.8 7.4 direct Taxe 0. 91.7 91.5 100.8 112.3 123,0 128.2 134 Foreign Trade 43.5 40.2 35.3 34.4 39.9 46.1 47.5 47-i E:port Duty 8.5 8.5 5.5 4.8 6.3 8.7 8.0 8.6 (Coffee) (8.1) (8.1) ( 5.2) ( 4.4) ( 5.9) ( 8.3) ( 7.6) ( 8.0) Import Duty .30.5 27.5 26.1 26.1 29.5 32.7 34.8 33.9 (San Jose Protocol) - - - ( 0.5) ( 5.7) ( 6.9) ( 8.5) ( 8.1) Unallocated 4.5 4.2 3.7 3.5 4.1 4.7 4.7 4.6 Domestic Transactions 47.2 51.5 56.2 66.4 72.4 76.9 80.7 87.4 Stap Tax 15.6 16.9 22.3 30,.6 32.6 35.6 36.9 40.6 Petroleum Products 8.6 10,4 10.0 9.8 10.9 11.5 12.0 13.2 Tobacco 4.8 4.6 4.2 5.1 6.4 6.6 6.9 7.0 Alcohol 14.0 14.7 3J.7 15.1 15-7 16.4 17.8 18 5 Other 4.2 4.9 5.0 5.8 6.6 6.8 '7.1 8.l NONU-TAX REVENUE 11.7 12.7 13.9 13.4 3 15. E3 19.2 19 TOTAL CURRENT REVENUE 118.8 1204 124.0 136-3 149.i 165,o 173.7. 18 Source : Minis try of Fince . Table_ 5_: GUATEMALA - CENTRAL GOVERN4KMNT CURRENT REViNUE Part B: 1972 (preliminaly) and projected 1973-79 (In m1J.ins3 of Quetale3) 1971 1972 2.973 1974 1975 1976 1977 3978 1979 TAX REVENUE I .5 161.3 180 1 194.1 208.8 225.4 212.9 261.9 232.6 Direct Taces 26.3 298 335 36. 41.0 45.13 201 55.1 613 Income Tax y 20.5 22.4 24.9 27.6 30.6 33.7 37.1 40.8 45.0 (Persenal) ( 5.0) ( 5.5) ( 6.3) ( 7.0) (7.9) ( 8.7) ( 9.5) (1041> (1.4) (Company) (15.5) (16.9) (18.6) (20.6) (22.7) (25.0) (27.6) (30.4) (33.6) Property Tax 2 5.8 7.4 8.6 9.3 10.I 11.6 13.0 1>4.6 16.3 Indirect Taxes 128,2 134.5 146.6 157.2 167.8 180.1 I_92.8 206.5 2:21.3 Foreign Trade 47.5 47.1 53.5 57.8 61.8 66.9 71.9 77.4 B3.4 Liport Daty 3/ 8.0 8,6 10.6 11.0 1.3 L.12 11.4 11.8 12.1 (Goffee) ( 7.6) ( 8.0) (10.0) (10.4) (10.7) (10.6) (10.8) (n.1) (11.4), Dimport Duty 6/ 34.8 33.,9 37.6 41.0 44.3 48.8 53.0 57.5 62.5 (San Jose Protocol) ( 8.5) ( 8.1) ( 9.1) ( 9.9) (10.7() (11,8) (12.8) (1.3.9) (15.1) Unallocated 4.7 4.6 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.9 7.5 8.1 8.8 Domestie Transactions $f 80. 87.4 93.1 99.4 106.0 113.2 120.9 129.1 137.9 Stamp Tax 36.9 4o.6 43.6 46.9 50.4 54.2 58.3 62.7 67.4 Petroleum Products 12.0 13.2 14.0 14.9 15.8 16.8 17.9 19.0 20.2 Tobacco 6.9 7.0 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.2 Alcohol 17.8 18.5 19.3 20.1 20.9 21.8 22.7 23.6 24.6 Other 7.1 8.1 8.8 9.7 10.7 11.7 12.8 14.1 15.5 NON-TAX REVENUE ./ 19.2 19.9 21.2 22.8 24.6 26.5; 28.6 30.8 33.2 TOTAL CURRENT FVENUE 173.7 184,2 201.3 216.9 233.4 251.9 271.5 292.7 315.8 _1/ Assumes that the improverments that are being made in the tar. collection that mainly concentrates on the incoe tax and the termination of the holiday tax for companies as the yoars pass by, will produce an increase at an average of 10 percent per year after 1973. 2f For 1973 the budget estimate, 1974 an 8 percent is assumed as more nonnal, thereafter it is assuied a 12 percent rate of growth per ye.ar at an average. 3/ Assumes that import duties will continue to be determined by coffee export,s, and coffee tax revenue will follow the pattern of coffee exports. / Assuies that imports duties revenue will grow at about 9 pexcent such as imports in current prices. 5/ Average historical rates of growth are used. Source: Ministry of Finance and IBRD Mission Projections 1973-79. Table 3: GUATEMALA - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURES BY SECTOR Part A: 1965 through 1972 (preliminary) (In milLtons of Qaetzales) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Fconomic Services 10.6 17.1 16.7 17.2 18.0 19.7 18.7 Agriculture 3.0 33 3~0 2.7 3.0 5777 Tia - Transport 2.6 7.9 7.8 6.9 8.0 73 8.2 - Communications 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.1. 4.2 4.4 4.1 - Other 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.5 2.0 2.6 3.3 - Social Services 41.9 45! 0.4 50.9 52.5 61.1 69.8 Education 219 2.3.1 26~1 29.3 36S - Health 11.1 12.4 13 .4 13.9 17.4 19.7 17.2 Social welfare 7.6 6.6 7.5 8.2 7.0 8.3 13.4 Other 1.3 3,0 3.1 2.2 3.8 2.7 3.7 General Services 44.4 46.9 50.3 _52.7 5.6 68.7 58.4 67.3 General Admin. 17.7 17.ý 1 19.2 20.1 22.3 Defense and Police 20.5 21.0 24.6 2.3 24.4 37.3 23.1 Justice 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 3.3 3.3 3.6 Interst 4.8 5.7 6.6 7.5 7,7 8.0 9.4 10.6 TOTAL CURRET EXPENDITURE 96.9 109.1 118.4 118.8 129,3 117.8 l1479 159,2 Source: Ministry of Finance, Table 5.3: GUATEMALA - CENTRAL GOVERNIENT CURR1ENT EXPENDITURES BY SEGTOR Part ]B: 1972 (preliminaty) and projected 1973-79 (In million of Quetzales) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 Economic Services 19.7 18.7 22.6 24.3 26.1 28.1 30.2 2.5 35.0 Agriculture 4 - Transport 8.2 - Com,munications 4.1 - Other 3.3 - Social Services 69.8 73.2 76.2 82.0 88.2 94.9 102.2 109.9 118.3 Education 33 ¯ He al.th 17.2 Social Welfare 13.4 - Other .3.7 - General Services 54 67.3 75.3 81.0 87.2 93.8 10).9 108.6 16.8 General Admkin. 22.3 - Defense and Police 23.1 Justice 3.6 - Interest 9.4 10.6 TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE 1/ 147.9 159.2 17h.1 187.3 2.01. 216.8 233.3 251.0 270.1 / Assumes that total current expenditure will grow at 7.5 percent per year, 0.5 percent more than the historical rate for three years imLoving average center in 1966 and 1971. Asswes for the eomponent parts that the e>q>enditures wi.11 be distributed following the same average pattern. Source: Ministry of Finance and IBRD Mission Projections 1973-79. Ta:ble 5. GUAEIALA - CErAL GOVERNNT GMPITAL EXPENDITMES BT SECTOR Part As 1968 turoi 1972 (jpreliminary) (In md.1.Lns of Qaetwales) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Direct Investment 18.2 U..3 22.0 20.2 Economic Services 13.7 18.0 16.5 13.1 20.1 Agriculture -T 21 2.7 3 Transport 11.4 13.h 13.0 10.3 16.5 Communications 0.7 0. 0.6 0.1 - Other - - 0.1 - 0.2 Social Services 4_.1 4.8 3.3 2.4 13.0 Education. 1.0 1.7 1.0 0 5.1 Health 3.1 3.1 2.1 1.0 7.1 Other - - 0.2 0.3 0.8 General Services 0.4 0.5 2.2 4.7 6L).! Transfers 7.4 6.7 6.6 1.0 12.7 Agriculture 1.0 1. 2.0 771 -T.T Housing 0M2 003 0.5 1.8 1.9 Power 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.0 2.4 Other 2.8 1.8 1.6 4.1 3.6 TOTAL INVESTMENT 25.6 30-0 28.6 34.2 52.2 /1 Total Investment as Percentage of G.D.P. 1.6 1..7 1.5 1.7 2J /I Does not include Q 18 million for the acqisition of Empro"a Fle'ctricas de Guatema-la. Source: Ministry of Finance Tabe-.: GUATE4ALA - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURES BY SEuTOR Part B: 1972 (prelimiinary) and projected 1973-79 (In millions of Qetzales) 1971 1972 1973 197h 1975 1976 1917 1978 1979 Direct Investment 20.2 39.5 46.1 48.5 53.4 56.6 60.0 63.6 67.4 Econoi. Services 13.1 20.1 21.4 29.4 32.4 34.4 36.4 38.6 40.9 Agriculture 2. Transport 10.3 16.5 17<>9 Comunications 0.1 - - Othe r - 0. 2 Social Services 2.4 13.0 17.3 12.9 14.2 15.0 15.9 16.9 17.9 Education 1,1 5-1 7,J Health 1.0 7.1 9.2 Other 0.3 0.8 11,0 General ServiceS 4.7 6.4 7,4 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.7 8.1 8.6 Transf±ers 14.0 12.7 12.8 16.2 17.8 18.9 20.0 21.2 22.5 Agriculture -.1 -1 Housing 1.8 1.9 1.3 Power 2.0 2.4 3.0 Other k,1 3.6 4.0 TOTAL INVESTDENT (2 34.2 52.2 58 . 9 64.7 71.2 75.5 80.0 84.8 89.9 Total Investment as Percentage of G.D.P. 1.7 2.4 2,5 2,5 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 /1-Does not include Q 18 million for the acquisition of Empresas Electricas de Guatemala. /2 The 1973 budget figures are reduced to mire realistic iiures. Iu 1974 total ixwest.nent is assumed to grow at 10% per year, and a newýv base is established aking ilto consideration the compos:ltion of the investnent in the previous two years and the emphasis that the Governent is giving to Agriulture, Transport, comznications and Social Services. In 1975 it is assumed that total investment and each of its components will grow at 10 percent and there after at si_x percent per year. Source: Ministry of Finance and IBRD' Mission Projections 1973-79. Table 5.5: GUATEMAIA - SUMLIARY TRANSACTIONS OF THE AUTONOHOUS AGENCIES (RPS) 1_ 1965 through 1972 and projections for 1973-79 (In millions of quetzales) Page 1 of 3 Current Revenue Current Expend. Current Surplus Capital Rceipts Investment Surplus(+) External Domestic Total Transf. Total Transf. (+) cr deficit(-) Total Transf. expenditure or financing, financing, from CG to CC- from CG Deficit(-) net net 1965 - Total 291.5 (3.1) 22.4 -) 7.1 _3. (3.0) 11.2 -1.1 1.3 -0_.2 University of San Carlos 3.1 (2.1) 2.8 (-) 0.3 - - 0.3 - - - Social Security Institute (IGSS) 11.1 (1.0) 10.3 (-) 0.8 - - 0.2 0.6 - -0.6 Guatemala City 9.4 ( - ) 6.5 (-) 2.9 - ( - ) 3.4 -0.5 - 0.5 Other municipalities 5.1 ( - 2.3 (-) 2.8 - ( - ) 2.2 0.6 - -0.6 National Electricity Institute (INDE) 0.8 ( - ) 0.5 (-) 0.3 3.0 (3.0) 5.1 -1.8 1.3 0.5 1966 - Total 330 (3.7 27.7 (0.31 5.3 6.2 (5.4) 10.9 0.6 1.3 -1.9 University of San Carlos 3.8 (2.7) 3.4 (-) 0.4 - ( - ) 0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.1 Social Security Institute (IGSS) 11.7 (1.0) 11.2 (-) 0.5 - ( - ) 0.1 0.4 -0.4 Guatemala City 8..9 ( - ) 7.3 (-) 1.6 - ( - ) 2.0 -0.4 - 0.4 Other municipalities 5.6 ( - ) 3.4 (-) 2.2 - ( - ) 2.0 -0.2 - 0.2 National Electricity Institute (INDE) 1.7 ( - ) 0.9 (-) 0.8 3.6 (3.6) 4.5 -0.1 0.5 -0.4 rustet-ala Telecommunications (GUATEL) 1.3 ( - ) 0.8 (0.3) 0.5 0.3 (0.3) 0.2 0.6 -0.6 National Housing Institute (INVI) - ( - ) 0.7 (-) -0.7 2.3 (1.5) 1.5 0.1 0.7 -0.8 1967 - Total 36.9 (4.0) 30.1 (0.3)_ 6.8 5.7 (4.2) 17.2 -4.7 42 j.5 University of San Carlos 4.0 (3.0) 4.0 (-) - 0.7 (0.4) 0.6 0.1 0.1 -0.2 Social Security Institute (ICSS) 13.2 (1.0) 11.5 (-) 1.7 - ( - ) 1.8 -0,1 0.1 ~atemala City 9.4 ( - ) 7.5 (-) 1.9 - ( - ) 2.3 -0.4 - 0.4 Other municipalities 5.8 ( - ) 3.8 (-) 2.0 - ( - ) 2.5 -0.5- 0.5 National Electricity Institute (INDE) 2.7 ( - ) 1.3 (-) 1.4 1.8 (1.8) 4.7 -1.5 1.8 -0.3 Guatemala TelecommunLcations (GUATEL) 1.5 ( - ) 1.1 (0.3) 0.4 0.1 (0.1) 0.3 0.2 - -0.2 National Housing Institute (INVI) 0.3 ( - ) 0.9 (-) -0.6 3.1 (1.9) 5.0 -2.5 2.3 0.2 1968 - Total 45. 1 (4.9 41..7 (0.5) 34 93 3 18.0 -5. 3 5.4 -0 University of San Carlos 4.3 (3.1) 4.2 (-) 0.1 0.1 ( - ) 0.6 -0.4 - 0.4 Social Security Institute (InSs) 14.7 (1.3) 12.6 (-) 2.1 - ( - ) 1.6 025 - -0.5 Guatemala City 9.5 ( - ) 8.2 (-) 1.3 - ( - ) 2.6 -1.3 1.3 Other Municipalities 6.3 (0.5) 4.3 (-) 2.0 - ( - ) 1.8 0.2 - -0.2 National Electricity Institute (INDE) 4.1 ( - ) 2.5 (-) 1.6. 3.0 (3.0) 8.2 -3.6 3.8 -0.2 Guatemala Telecommunic-ations (CATEL) 1.9 ( - ) 1.5 (0.5) 0.4 0.1 (0.1) 0.8 -0.3 - 0.3 Guatemala Railways (FEGUA) 4.0 (-) 7.2 (-) -3.2 4.0 (- - 0.8 - -0.8 National Housing Institute (INVI) 0.3 ( - ) 1.2 (-) -0.9 2.1 (u.2) 2.4 -).2 1.6 -0,4 1969 - Total 56. 1 7 49-0 Q.7 7.1. 5.1 318.5 -6.(1 3.9 _2.4 Universit:y of San Carlos 4.8 (3.9) 4.8 (-) - - ( - ) 0.1 -0.1 - 0.1 Social Security Institute (IrSS) 20.1 (2.6) 17.6 (-) 2.5 - ( - ) 1.2 1.3 - -1.3 Guatemala City 11.1 ( - ) 9.3 (-) 1.8 - ( - ) 2.8 -1.0 - 1.0 Other muricipalities 6.7 (1.2) 4.5 (-) 2.2 - ( - ) 3.5 -1.3 - 1.3 National Electricity Institute (INDE) 4.8 ( - ) 3.3 (-) 1.5 3.1 (3.1) 8.7 -4.1 3.2 0.9 Cuatenala Telecommunications (GUATEL) 2.4 ( - ) 1.8 (0.7) 0.5 - ( - ) 0.5 - - - Guatemala Railways (FEGIUA) 5.9 (1.0) 6.6 (-) -0.7 -0.7 - 0.7 National Housing Institute (INVI) 0.3 ( - ) 1..1 (-) -0.8 2.0 (0.3) 1.7 -0.5 0.7 -0.2 * Slo4 GUATa& -S 2T TRNSACTIO?G OF TIE AUTONOMXE A~ NIIS (RPS) 1/ 3965 thog 972 -nd proj*c-tlonc for 19,73=719 (In milions of Quotzalaa) Page 2 of 3 CurronC P,venun C,wrnnt Expod. ur. nt Surplua C&pital Recipta Invetmant SurplLu-) Eternal Dom~stic ie-"å77E' r .o?. Tro . (e 1 4roo - -ut unne xpndituro or fimnig, n , tr= C2 t* 00 frl 09 D2ii(- :t nwt 1974 - T3AL 26 h Univ,röity of Sar. arloe 5.3 (4.1) 5.3 (.. - - - ) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 Social Surit.y Institute (ISS) 21.3 (2.7) 19.2 () 2.1 - (-) 0.5 1.6 - -1.6 -at+-- .-tity 10.? - 1 .6 '-1 2. 0. / - _ l.0 -1Ä -1.0 ?.4 nth.r Mlui.iplitie. 5.å 10.3) 4.3 (-. 2.5 y 3.5 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 Nrtiol E.ectricity Insttlute It r) 6.4 ( - - 2.2 2.? (2.5) 8.? -3.8 3.8 - ,oatemala Telacomun .tion (GUAT) 2.7 1.2 ) 1. - 3.2 -1.7 0.4 naar0..,,. oan k. i / -'1 0.7 ( - - -2.1 - LJ aticl Hlo ins (titute 8 08I. - 0 3.5 0.'> .1 .1 1.5 -L9 National Inotituta for Agrarln Reform 1.2 (1,2j 1.0 ( 0.2 0.8 (0.5) 0.7 3.3 - 1971 - TOTAL 2/ i C92 ý9 6.6 2.6 (7. 2ö.2 1. - Univcr51ty of San Carloc 5.7 (1.5) 5.9 -c.2 0.1 ( - ), 0.5 - ..ocial Security Instituto (IM0S) 23.2 (2.7) 21.6 -) 1.6 - ( ) 0.9 0.7 - ruatemala City 11.7 - 6.6 (- 5.1 0.1 (0 35 1.7 -1.2 Other !unicipalitle ¯7.2 (52)78 - -0. .6(-)37-.5-0. Oter8ol Ia4to 3.8 1.7 -0.5 o. Natiora Elotrielty Institute (ME) 6.5 2.L 7.3 (2.0) 10 5 -3. 3.0 -2.2 uatmala Teleco0m tions (GUATEL) 4.1 ( 3 10 0.5 0.5) 07 ,.8 1.1 -1.9 uoutemala Ra aoo& (oMUA) L.9 (- 7.6 -2.7 2.3 (1.5) 3.5 -3.9 3.2 r.7 Y-tional Houwing Institute (INWI) 0.9 ( 9 .9 (--6. .8. .518-3 3. (- 0.7 (0.8> 0.3 . 18 mational Instituto for Agrarian Reforn 1.1 (5 0.7 <0 0.3 -.0 -.1 Ntional Instituto of Agri.ultur C~..are 0.8 (3,8 0. 0.9 (03 1.0 -.1 -0.9 (INDECA) 1972 - TOTIAL 2./2 10.b21 _66.0 (- ý2 16. 1.8-56- M_ University of San Carlos 6.1 (4.5) 6.41 (-) .3 - ( - 0.3 -.6 -.1. 0.7 Social Scourity Inostitt. (Ia6S) 24.5 3.6" 24.7 -0.2 - ( - ) 0.7 -0.9 - Guat-mla City 11.8 - ) 8.3 3.5 3.4 (0.1) 6.8 0.1 -2.9 2.0 Other MuntolpalitIo5 7.8 (0.3) 5. (- 2.3 2.3 ( - 3 3.9 0.7 - --.7 Nationl Electroclty Institute (ID2E) 8.6 (-) 5.6 - 3.0 2.6 <2.4) 6.3 -1.7 2-2 Got.:mola Tel.ou:nioaton. (GUATSL) 7.3 - 6.7 - .6 - - 4.7 0.6 guåtaoala Raill&ya (FEMUA) 5.2 (- 6. ) -1.6 2.0 (2.0) - -0.3 Natloml Rousing Institute (INTI) 1.6 (- 1 0.0 5.0 (1.9) 6.9 1 h Nati4l Institute for Agraran Re.ar2 1.5 <2.0 0.3 ( 1.2 0.4 (0.4) - National Institute of Agriculture Cornarce 0.6 (0.6) 2.6 -) 02 1.0 (1.0) - 1.2 0.3 J.5 (INDECA) 1973 - TOTAL 1/ U_- (. 1) -i 8_. 0_) .6 61 University of San Carlos 6.7 (5.0) 6. - - ( . 3 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Social Security Institute (08) 27.4 (4.1) 27. -0.2 - (0- .7 4G.9 - 0.9 Guoto-al. City 12.2 (-) 12.6 (-) 1.6 - (- 3.0 -1.4 1.1 Other municipalItIes 8.3 1.0) 7 . .2 2.0 (2.0) 1.0 .6 - 1.6 1at1onal Eletricity Inatituta (INDE) 9.8 .-) 6.1 .) 3.7 2.5 <2.5, 2.3 3.9 o. -4.3 Outemala Telöeomunicatim, (GUATZL) 8.7 ( - ) 7.2 (- 1.5 - ( - ) 7.5 -60 3 Zuatefla Railwayr (F!UA) 5.5 ( - ) 6.8 ) -1.3 . < - ) - Nationol Hosing institute 1.I) L7 1.i - 0.6 5.0 (2.0) .5 1.1 - -1. Nationol Instituto for Agrarian Reorn 1 ( 1 0 (- 05 1.0 (1.0) 15 - - National Instituto of Agriculture Coefroce 1.5 (1.5 0.8 () 0.7 1.0 (1.0) 26 -0.9 1.3 - (INDECA) 1974 - TOTAL 2/ Q.3 <1.3 EL 2 ' Jå 5 80.9 --9. University f San Crloa 7.4 (5.6) 7.4 > - - ( -0.3 - 0011 3e01.Ity InstituT (103) 30.6 1.7) 30.9 -0.3 - ( 0.7 -10 - 1.0 Ouat~m. City 12.6 ( - 11.1 (- 1.5 - ( - 6.0 -.5 .9 1.' Other kunticIPlltien 8.8 (1.3) 7.6 (-) 1.2 2.0 (2.0) 4.0 -0.6 - 0.8 National 2lectric2ty Instituto (INDE) 11.4 6.7 ) 4.7 2.5 <2.5, 2.5 4.7 -3.1 -1.6 uuatomla Telecorunicatlono (GUATEL) 10.4 > .7 ( 2.7 - ) 9.i -6.h 4.1 2 GuatemaAa Railwayr (?U) 5.9 1 - 6 -0.9 - - -9.9 - 0.9 Na.et (8 - 1 0.7 5.0 (.0) < 1.2 - -L2 N t.ionl 1ntituto fr Agr ian Re or . 1.5 . (1.0) 1 - - - r u oanu.tre Olomeroe . o.1) o.8 ~0.1 1.2 (1.2) 2.b -13 1.3 - (INDECA)> -，…―---―昭―-------:-:----&---―、―-----.- Table 5.6: GUATEMALA - CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS Page 1 of 6 Part A: 1965 through 1972 (preliminary) (In millions of Quetzales) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 (1) Central Government (CG) Current revenue 118.1 120.4 124.0 136.3 149.7 165.0 173.7 184.2 (Transfers from RPS) (-) (0.3) ( 0.3) ( 0.5) ( 0.7) ( - ) (-) (-) Current expenditure 96.8 109.4 118.5 118.8 129.3 147.8 147.9 159.2 (Transfers to RPS) (3.11 (3.7) .0) ( 4.9) ( 8-7) ( 3) (9.21 (10.2k Current Account surplus (+) or deficit (-) 21.3 11.0 5.5 17.5 20.4 17.2 25.8 25.0 Capital receipts 1.1 1,3 2.2 2.2 2.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 Investment expenditure 34.8 26.6 29.8 25-6 30.0 28.6 34.2 52.2 (Transfers to RPS) (3.0) (5.4) ( 4.2) ( 3.-3) ( 3.4) ( 3.5) ( 7.1) ( 7.8) (Other transfers) (7.2) (4.3) ( 5.6) ( 4.1) ( 3.3) ( 3.1) ( 6.9) ( 4.9) Overall surplus (+) or deficit (-) -12.4 -14.3 -22.1 -5.9 -7.5 -10.6 -7.6 -26.6 External financing, net 10.0 1.7 18.7 11.3 -1.7 23.3 0.7 9.2 (Disbursement) (15.2) (87) (2T.) (23.3) (12.3) (36.) (14.3) (33.9) (Amortization) (5.2) (6.9) ( 9.8) (12.0) (14.0) (15.5) (13.6) (26.7) Domestic financing, net 2.4 12,.6 3.4 -5.4 9.2 -12.7 6.9 17.4 Bank of Guatemala, net -0.6 11.0 1.7 -3.0( 7.9 -7.1 9.T -9.?) Commercial banks, net -2.9 7.2 -3.0 1.2 -1.9 1.2 10.9 23.6) Development Institutions, net -0.5 -0.4 - - 1,0 -0,1 1.1 0.5) Other residual 6.4 -5.2 4.7 -3.6 4.2 -6.7 -1A.5 3,0 Source: Ministry of Finance and IBRD mission estimates. Table 5.6: GUATEMALA - CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS Page 2 of 6 Part A: 1965 through 1971-72 (preliminary) (In millions of Quetzales) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 (2) fiest of the Public Sector (RPS) Current Revenue 29.5 33.0 36.9 45. 56.1 59.4 66.1 75.2 (Transfers from C.G.) ( 3.1) ( 3.7) ( 4.0) ( 4.9) ( 8.7) ( 8,3) ( 9.2) (10.2) Current expenditure 22.4 27.7 30.1 41.7 149.0 52.9 59.5 66.0 (Transfers to C..) -- ) (0 0.3) 0.5) ( -) ( -) CulTent Account surplus (+) or deficit (-) 7.1 5.3 6.8 3.4 7.1 6.5 6.6 9.2 Capital receipts 3.0 6.2 5.7 9.3 5.1 10.7 22.6 16.7 (Transfers from C.G.) ( 3.0) ( 5.h) ( 4.2) ( 3.3) ( 3.4) ( 3.5) (7.1) ( 7.8) Direct Investment expenditure 11.2 10.9 17.2 18.0 8. 23.8 28.2 29,6 Overall surplus (+) or deficit (-) -1.1 0.6 -4.7 -5.3 -6.3 -6.6 1.0 -3.7 External financing, net 1.3 1.3 4.2 £.4 3.9 4.5 7.8 (Disbursements) ( 13 ( 1 ( ) (49 (ÎJ .7) (Amcortization) ( - ) ( - ) ( 0.1) ( 0.1) ( 1.0) ( 1.h) ( 1.9) ( 3.2) Domestic financing, net -0.2 -1.9 0L5 -0.1 2.4 2,J -8.8 2.2 Source: Table 5.5. Table 5.6: GUATEMALA - CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS Page 3 of 6 Part A: 1965 through 1972 (preliminary) (In millions of Quetzales) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 (3) Public Sector Current revenue 144.5 149-4 156.6 176.0 196.4 216.1 230.6 249.2 Current expenditure 116.1 133.1 1h,.3 If5.1 168.9 192.4 198.2 215.0 Current account surplus (+) or deficit (-) 28.4 16.3 12.3 20.9 27.5 23.7 32.4 34.2 Capital receipts 1.1 2.1 3.7 8.2 3.8 8.0 16.3 9.5 Investment expenditure 43.0 32.1 42.8 40.3 65.1 48.9 55.3 74.o (Transfers to others) ( 7.2) ( 4.3) (5.) ( t.1) ( 3.3) ( 3.1) ( 6.9) ( L.9j Overall surplus (+) or deficit (-) -13.5 -13.7 -26.8 -11.2. -13.8 -17.2 - 6.6 -30.3 External financing, net 11.3 3.0 22.9 16.7 2.2 27.8 8.5 10.7 (Disbursement) M1K ) CTq) (312) ( 7) (17.2) (W7) (2T ) (4,) (Amortization) ( 5.2) ( 6.9) ( 9.9) (12.1) (15.0) (16.9) (15.5) (22.9) Domestic financing, net 2.2 10.7 3.9 -5.5 11.6 -10.6 -1.9 19.6 Bank of Guatemala to C.G., net -0C. 11.0 1.7 -3.0 .9 -7.1 9.TT -9.7) Commercial Banks to C.G. net -2.9 7.2 -3.0 1.2 -1.9 1.2 10.9 23.6) Development Institutions to C.G., net -0.5 -04 - - 1.0 -0.1 1.1 0.5) Domestic financing to R,,PS. -0.2 -1.9 0.5 -0.1 2.4 2.1 -8.8 2.2 ather residual 6.L6 -5.2 4,7 -3.6 4.2 -6.7 -110.5 -3.0 Gap to be financed l A: GUATEMALA - ONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SEOTOR OPERA TIONS Page 4 of 6 Part B: 1972 (preliminary) and projected 1973-79 (In millions of Quetzales) ~ 197 197 197? 3.919727 (1) Central Government (CG) Current rvenue 173.7 184.2 201.3 216.9 233.h 251.9 271.5 292.7 315.8 Cu.rre-,,t e:nAditure )47.9 159.2 174.1 187,3 201.5 216.8 233.3 251.0 270.1 (T.ran=feýrs t,'o RPS) (9.2), 110_2 ý---l ,31ti i --2 1 L67 (j1 21£ ß urrent Aceout surplus (+) 25.8 25.0 27.2 29.6 31.9 35.1 38L2 41.7 45.7 or deficit (-) Capital receipts 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Ine3Lment expenditure 34.2 52.2 58.9 64.7 71.2 75.5 80.0 84.8 89.9 (Transfers to RPS) ( 7.1) ( 7.8) ( 8.5) ( 8.7) ( 8.7) ( 9.4) (10.9) (11.0) (11L5) (Ather transfers) (( 6-j)) (9.9 (1 411(g) overal surplus (+) or deficit (-) -7.6 -26.6 -30.9 -34.3 -38.5 -39.1 -40.8 -42.1 -43.2 External financing, net 0.7 9.2 18.9 17.1 20.8 25.7 28.9 30.5 32.0 (Di1sburnsement) (157) (3.9) (25%) (Z. ) (ý.T.Ï) (-.3) W ) (3) (I (Amortization) (13.6) (26.7) ( 6.5) ( 7.5) ( 7.9) (7.6) ( 7.5) ( 6.7) ( 7.0) Domestic financing, net 6,9 17.4 12.0 17.2 17<,7 13.7 11.9 11.6 11.2 Bank of Guatemala, net -9,7) Commercial banks, net 10.9 23.6) 8.8 4.0 4.P 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 Developnent Institutions, net 1.1 0.5) Other residual -145 3,0 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Gap to be financed - 1.0 11.2 11.7 7.2 5.4 4.6 4.2 Source: DUinistry of Finance and IBRD mission projection 1973-79 (See footnote on tables 5.2, 5.3, 5.4). Table . GUATEMALA - CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS Page 5 of 6 Part B: 1971-72 (preliminary) and projected 1973-79 (In millions of Quletzales) ,1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 (2) Rest of the Public Sector (RPS) Gurrent Revenue 66.1 75.2 83.3 91.3 101.1 112.2 124.9 139.3 -56.5 (Transfers from C.G.) ( 9.2) (10.2) (13.1) (13.3) (15.2) (16.7) (18.5) (21.0) (23.3) 0urrent ]penditure 59,5 66.0 75.0 81.6 89.0 96.1 104.0 112.4 122.2 (TranSfers to'C.G.).( - ) ( -) ( -) ( -) ( -) ( -) ( - 2 Ourrent Account surplus (+) 6.6 9.2 8.3 9.7 12.1 16.1 20.9 26.9 3h.3 or deficit (-) Capital receipts 22.6 16.7 11.5 11.7 11.7 12.4 13.9 -.14.0 ]J. (Transfers from C.G.) ( 7.1) ( 7.8) ( 8.5) ( 8.7) 8.7) ( 9.4) (10.9) (11.0) (=11.5) Direct Investment exioenditure 28.2 29.6 26,.6 30.9 32.5 30.5 38.3 146.9 4h.3 Overall surplus (+) or deficit (-) 1.0 -3.7 -6.8 -9.5 -8.7 -2.0 -3.5 -6.0 'xternal financing, net 7.8 1.5 6.1 8.2 9.3 11.0 13.h 17.8 l4. (Disburement» ( G) ( E~) ( 37 .òE 13) (1«(--) (7o .) (TT7 7) (Amortization) ( 1.9) ( 3.2) ( 1.2) ( 1.3) 1.3) ( 1.5) ( 2.6) ( 2.8) ( 2.8) omestic financing, net -8.6 2.2 0.7 1.3 -0.6 -9.0 -.9 -11.8 -18.9 Source: Table 5.5, Tab-le .6: GUATEMAL/, - CCN30LID:TED PULLIC 3ECTOR OPEA IO Ns Page 6 of 6 Part 3: 1972 IPreliminary) and projected 1973-79 (in millions of Quetzales) 1971 1972 1973 1974 1 75 1976 1977 1978 1979 (3) Public ector 0u,rrent revenue 230.6 249.2 271.5 294.9 319.3 3h7.4 377.9 411.0 449.0 Current expenditure 198.2 215.0 236. 255.6 275.3 296.2 316.8 342.4 369.0 Current account surplus (+) 3 2$ 34k2 35.5 39.3 k;o0 51. .2 59.1 08.6 80.0 or deficit (-) .,apital receipts 16.3 9. 3.6 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 >.0 4.0 investment expenditure 5.5.3 74.0 77.0 86.9 95.0 96.6 107.4 120.7 122.7 (Transfers to others) 6.9) 4.9) 4.3) 7 75)2 9.1) 9.5) ( 9.1) (10.2) L1.0) Overall surplus (+) or deficit (-) -6.6 -30.3 -37.7 -43.8 -47.2 -41.4 -44.3 -48.1 -38.7 F3:ternal financing, net 8.¢ 10.7 2 0 2 -.1 36.7 42.3 48.3 46.4 (Lisbursement) (240) (*0.6) (32.7) .1) (39.3) (r) (K) ( ) (56.) (Araortization) (15.5) (29.9) ( 7.7) ( 8.8) ( 9.2) ( 9.1) (10.3) ( 9.5) ( 9.8) Domestic financing, net -1.9 19.6 12.5 19.0 17.6 5.2 2.5 0.3 -7.1 Bank of Guatemala to 0.G., net ~. -97) orunercial Banks to 0.G., net 10.9 23.6) 8.8 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 Development Institutions to 0.G., net 1.1 0.5) Dorestic financing to R.P.3. -8.8 2.2 0.5 1.8- -0.1 -8.5 -9.4 -11.3 -18.3 Other residtal -14.5 3.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Gap to be financed - - 1,.0 11.2 11.{ Y'.2 5.4 4.6 4.2 VI MONEY AND CREDIT Table No. 6.1 Sum-ary Accounts ofthkBankg System 19667.) S..3 Ne,harges in A196t- A System, 1966-72. Table 6.1% GUATEMALA -SUMkARY ACCWUNTS OF TMS BANKING SYSTIM Page 1 of 4 pages 1966 through 1972 (In millions of quetzales) -gd of Period 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 I. Bank of Guatemala Znternational reserves, net 53.0 46.6 4? .d 0.9 0. d 137.6 Gold and foreign assets 6,7 6.. 74.4 H1., 6.1 117.9 Net m potion - 1_1 -iq.2 -13.L -11.1 - 3.0 9.8 Holdings of SDRs - - - - 2.0 8.6 12.5 Short-term liabilities - 2.4 - 3.7 - 2.8 - 2.3 - 3.2 - 2.2 - 2.6 Domestic assets 82 92.9 97.4 101.6 104.5 100.0 105.6 Credit to Oentral Goverment. net 0 . .9 42.6 .7 . . (Credit) ( 55.9) ( 52.0) ( 46.3) ( $5.1) ( 51.8) ( 64.6) 70,5) (Deposit) (-17.7) (-12.1) (- 9.4) (-12.3) (-16.1) (-19.7) (-24.3) Credi to rest of public sectorj net -.4 - 7 - 5.2 - . - 1.0 2.5 2. (credit) ( 0.6) ( 0.7) ( 0.2) ( 0.6) ( 4.4) ( 7.9) ( 9.7) (Deposits) (-14.0) (-10.L) (- 5.) (- 5.2) (- 6.2) (- 5.4) (- 6.8) Credit to commercial banks 23.6 24.8 23.1 19.6 27.3 21.1 28.4 From domestic resources 14.7 16.0 14.3 11.3 19.5 13.7 22.1 Bank securities 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 - 1.1 1.2 1. Credit to development institutions 19.3 22.7 27.4 27.1 26.2 12.9 9.3 From domestic resources 13.4 14.6 15.7 14.1 13.6 2.7 1.0 From foreign resources 5.7 7.5 11.2 12.4 12.0 9.6 7.2 Securit0e6 0._0_ Official capital and reserves - 9.8 -10.6 -10.3 -10.3 -10.3 -10.3 -10.3 Subscriptions to international agencies 10.2 10.8 13.2 14.9 15.6 17.2 23.5 Depoaits of Linattvnd.z . agencies - 3.8 - 2.9 - 5.1 - 5. h - .9 - 6.7 -11.7 Unclassified assets, net 18.2 17.6 17.4 17.3 16.9 18.2 19.3 20.il/ n1) ( 90.9 C 18.3) C 18.3) C 17.<) ( 18.8 A 2 1.2) (Liabilities) (- 1.9) (- 2.6) (- 0.9) (- 1.0) (- 0.6) (- 0.6) (- 1.9) Allocation of SDHs - 4.2 8.1 12.9 Foreiin liabilities (medium and lone-term) 15.6 16.2 20.6 21.6 21. 19.7 16.A Liabilities to banks 38.8 4o.8 3 50.0 63jc 69.3 100.2 Gommezoial banks 3J 0 u347 40.> o. o.y 95. Cash in vaults h.2 4.8 7.4 7.4 7.4 8.2 6.9 Reserve deposits 31.7 34.0 34.2 L1.0 53.4 58.6 6.2 Foreign exchange deposits 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Development institutions 2.8 1.9 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.4 5.0 Cain varul+ts 0.2 A d -A1 , , r ' r wa s w a e- d*e. %Je Wed. J.e4 WoJ4 I.s* 4 Reserve deposits 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.9 L.4 Sinking fund deposits 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.3 0,6 - 0.2 Currency in circulation 81.1 82.5 82.8 90.9 96.1 98.4 113.6 lable 6.1.: CrUAiA R! Aall" o!"U JfU NT3 Ujj, '11 TH-IE iAN%N SYTE.N4 rage e o1 i4 pages 1966 through 1972 (In millions of quetzales) End of Period 1966 1967 98 199 1970 1971 1972 II. Commercial Banks International reserves, net -12.2 -11.4 -11.8 -13.3 - 8.1 -11.4 - 3.4 Foreign assets 2.1 2.7 3.3 4.6 3.9 3.9 5.0 .hort-term liabilities -14.3 -14.1 -15.1 -17.9 -12.0 -15.3 - 8.4 Ilaims on Bank of Guatemala 37.5 40.2 42.1 49.0 61.7 68.1 95.7 Cash in vaults 7.2 7 7. 7. 8.1 8.9 Foreign exchange deposits 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other deposits 32.9 34.9 34.6 41.5 54.2 59.9 86.7 romestic assets 175.6 190.3 21 .O 233.3. 254.7 286.8 344.5 Credit to Central Government, net 11.1 B.1 9.3 7.4 8.6 19.5 47.T Credit to rest of public sector, net - 1.0 - 2,8 - 0.9 - 2.0 - 1.4 - 1.1 4.0 (Credit) ( 1.3) ( 0.4) ( 3.0) ( 1.8) ( 2.6) ( 1.3) ( 6.0) (Deposits) (-1.8) (-2.1) (-2.6) (- 2.5) (-2.6) (-1.0) (-1.0) (Mortgage bonds) (- 0.5) (- 1.1) (- 1.3) (- 1.3) (- 1.4) (- 1.4) (- 1.0) Credit to private sector 155 .4 173.5 193.9 210.5 225.3 244.7 267.3 Official capital - 8.3 - 9.9 -10.5 -10.7 -11.0 -11.0 -11.2 Unclassified assets, net 18.6 21.4 23.2 28.2 33.2 34.7 36.8 (Assets) ( 30.8) ( 33.5) ( 357) ( 41.2) ( 46.3) ( 48.4) (52.8), (Liabilities) (-12.2) (-12.1) (-12.5) (-13.0) (-13.1) (-13.7) (-16.0) Foreign liabilities (medium and long-term) 2.1 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.8 4.6 Liabilities to Bank of Guatemala 23.6 25.5 23.4 20.2 27.5 23.1 30.6 Liabilities to private sector 17.1 191.3 219.6 246.9 279.0 318.6 401.6 Sight deposits 7 5 Ti2 T 2 8 78.0 9 Time deposits 32.3 33.3 37.3 38.5 40.8 41.6 46.7 Savings deposits 63.4 75.1 88.8 109.6 130.0 162.6 215.6 Foreign exchange deposits 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Securities 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 Capital and reserves 19.3 20.0 26.6 29.3 32.2 35.6 42.7 Tabis_6.1 :GMTEikLA.- SU4ARC ACCOUNTS 0F THES BiNMING) 3SEL Page 3 of 4 pages 1966 through 1972 (In rmillions of quetzales) &Wir of Period III. Devel ment ln.titutions International reserves, net 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 - -0.1 0,1. ?ýoreign assets 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 - 0.3 Short-term liabilities - -0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 Claims on Bank of Guatemala 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.6 2.4 5.0 Cash in vaults 0.2 0.3 .T1 0. 3 UN 0.4 Deposits 1.8 1.2 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.9 4.6 lomestic assets 24.0 29.0 33.1 34.6 34.1 20.5 16.3 Credit to Central Government, net 0.1 0.1 0.1 .~.1 1.0 2.1 2.6 Credit to rest of public sector, net -0.8 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1.0 -1.9 ( rYedit) ( 0.3) ( -) (0.1) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) ( - ) (Deposits) (-0.5) (-0.1) (-0.1) (-0.2) (-0.2) (-0.3) (-1.5) (Mortgage bonds) (-0 -.4) (-0.7) (-0.6) (-0.8) (-0.7) (-0.4) Iredit to private sector 22.6 25.9 25.3 24.4 23.6 12.5 10.8 Official capital -L0. -9.5 -9.1 -8.6 -7.3 -4.5 -5.5 Unclassified assets, net 1L2.5 13,0 17.5 18.5 17. 11.4 10.3 (Assets) (19.6) (20.1) (24.8) (25.8) (25.7) (13.6) (15:3) (Liabilities) (-7.1) (-7.1) (-7.3) (-7.3) (-7.9) (-2.2) (-5.0) foreign liabilities (medium and long-term) 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 Liabilities to Bank of Guatemala 20.0 23.15 27. 27.2 26.7 13.7 9.7 Liabilities to private sector 4.5 5.7 5.2 7.2 8.1 8.3 11.1 Sight deposits 1. 1.9 1f6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 Time deposits 0.4 1.1 0.7 2.0 1.6 1.5 3,0 Savings deposits 2.5 2.7 2,9 3.5 Sec u riti es Table 6.1: GUATEMAiLA - SUMMAi ACCOUNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM Page h of 4 pages 1966 through 1972 (In millions of quetzales) End of Period -6¯ 96T 1968-¯---69 1970 1971 1972 IV. B ankinystem International reserves, neA 110.9 35. 37,0 47.4 72.2 84.0 1341.3 Gold and foreign assets 69.0 79.3 5.7 90.0 123.2 Net IF position - 5.3 -15.2 -13.4 -11.1 - 3.0 9.8 loldings ol S.D.R.s - - - - 2.0 8.6 12.5 Short-term liabilities -16.7 -17.9 -18.6 -20.8 -15.5 -17.6 -n1-.2 Domestic asset-s 239.5 264.1 29b.8 322.2 339.4 371.7 426.6 Credit to Central Government, net 4-. --. -'. -11 4T. -R.~7 JL: Credit to rest of public sector, net -15.2 -13.0 - 6.8 - 7.4 - 4.2 0.h 5.0 (Credit) ( 2.2) ( 1.1) ( 3.3) ( 2.h) ( 7.0) ( 9.2) ( 15.7) (Deposits) (-16.3) (-12.6) (- 8.1) (- 7,9) (- 9.0) (- 6.7) (- 9.3) (Mortgage bonds) (- 1.1) (- 1.5) (- 2.0) (- 1.9) (- 2.2) (- 2.1) (- 1.h) Credit to private sector 178.0 199.4 219.2 23h.9 248.9 257.2 278.1 Official capital and reserves -28.5 -30.0 -.29.9 -29.6 -28.6 -25.8 -27.0 Subscriptions to international agencies 10.2 10.8 13.2 lh.9 15,4 17.2 21.5 Deposits of international agencies - 3.8 - 2.9 - 5.1 - 5.h - 1.9 - 6.7 -11.7 Unclassified assets, net 49.3 52.0 58.1 64.0 67.9 64.3 66.6 (Assets) ( 70.5) ( 73.8) ( 78.8) ( 85.3) ( 89.5) ( 80.8) ( 89.5) (Liabilities) (-21.2) (-21.8) (--20.7) (-21.3) (-21.6) (-16.5) (-22.9) Interbank float 0.1 - 0.3 - 0.2 - 0.5 - 0.4 - 1.6 - 2.3 Allocation of S.D.R. - - - - 4,2 8.1 12.9 Forsign liabilities (medium and long-term) 19.6 20.0 24.2,2 24.6 2h.,2 22.3 21.7 Liabilities to private sector 260.8 279.5 307.6 3LI.0 383,2 42.3 526.3 Currency in circulation -62.1 22~5 90.9 96.1 98> TY.¯ Sight deposits 59.6 63.1 67 . 70.2 77.1 80.0 97.9 Time deposits 32.7 344 38,0 h0.5 42.6 543.1 49.7 Savings deposits 65.9 77.8 91.7 113.1 134.3 167.3 221.5 Foreign exchange deposits 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Securities 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 Capital and Reserves 19.3 20.0 26.6 29.3 32.2 35.6 42.7 Source: Bank of Guaterala and IM:F. Table 6.2: GUATILkL,Lý - FINANCDIG CAPACITY O : 3 IBåING 31-1 1966 through 1972 (In raillions of quetzales) 15,b6 1.967 1qUi 1969 l970 -1971 19iý et international reserves -0.9 35.4 37.0 47.4 72.2 64.0 134.3 Domestic assets 239.5 26 1 294.8 322.2 339.4 371.7 426.6 Public sector, net 3.2 351 39.§ T3 TL.1 67.1 101. (Central Government, net) ( 49.4) ( -8.1) ( 46.3) ( 51.3) ( 45.3) ( 66.7) ( 96.4) (Rest of public sector, net) (-19.2) (-13.0) (-- 6.8) (- 7.) (- 4.2) ( 0.4) ( 5.0) Private sector 170.0 199.4 219.2 234.9 248.9 257.2 273.1 Subscription to international agencies 10.2 10.8 13.2 14.9 15.4 17.2 21.5 Unclassified assets, net 17.1 18.8 22.9 28.5 34.0 30.2 25.6 Assets = Liabilities 280.L 299.5 331.3 369.6 411.6 455.7 560.9 Money r~ti¯ 35.6 I25.2 161,1 173.2 178.4 211.5 Cuasi--money 98.6 112.2 129.7 153.6 176.9 210.4 271.2 Foreign liabilities (medium and long-term) 19.6 20.0 24.2 24.6 24.2 22.3 21.7 Other liabilities 21.5 21.7 27.7 30,3 37.3 44.6 56.5 G.N. P. 1,373.3 1,432.7 1,562 .5 1,16U,5 1,870.9 1,962.3 2,143.7 Exports 231.9 203.9 233.5 262.5 297.1 286.9 337.5 Money as % of G.N.P. 10.2 10.2 9.5 9.6 9.3 9.1 9.9 uiasi-money as % of G.N.P. 7.2 7.8 8.2 9.1 9.5 10.7 12.7 Total liquid assets as ' of G.N.P. 17. 18.0 17.7 18.7 18,.8 19.8 22.6 Percentage change in private credit 7.7 12.0 9.9 7.2 6.0 3.3 8.1 Percentage change in public credit 53.4 2.6 12.5 11,1 - 6. 63.3 51.1 Percentage change in exports 23.5 -12.1 14.5 12.4 13.2 - 3.4 17.6 Percentage change in G.N.P. 4.0 4.3 10.5 6.4 11.1 4.9 9.2 Soarce: Table 6.1. Table 6.3: GUTuT3iALA -NET CHANGES IN THE AS,1TS AND LIABILITE1- OF Ti BANKING1 SYSTEi 1966 through 1972 (In millions of quetzales) 1966 1967 1968 199 19719 7971 1972 Net International Reserves - 6.8 - 5.5 1.6 10.0 24.8 11.6 50.3 Domestic Assets 30.5 214.6 30.7 27.4 17.2 32.3 54.9 Public sector, net 11.9 0.9 . 4.h - 2.8 26.0 3.3 (Central Government, net) (21.5) (- 1 (-3 1.8) ( 5.0) (- 6.0) (21.4) (29.7) (Rest of public sector, net) (-9.6) ( 2.2) ( 6.2) (-0.6) ( 3.2) ( 4.6) ( 4.6) Private sector 12.5 21.4 19.8 15.7 14.0 8.3 20.9 Subscription to International Organizations 0.5 0.6 2.4 1.7 0.5 1.8 4.3 Unclassified assets, net 5.6 1.7 4.1 5.6 5.5 -3.8 -4.6 Assets = Liabilities 23.7 19.1 32.3 37.8 42.0 44.1 105.2 Money 7.6 4.9 4.6 10.9 12.1 5.2 33.1I Cuas i-noney 13.6 13.6 17.5 23.9 23.3 33.5 60.8 Foreign liabilities (medium and long-term) 1.3 0.4 h.2 0., - 0.4 - 1.9 -. 06 Other liabilities 1.2 0.2 6.0 2.6 7.0 7.3 11.9 Source: Table 6.2, Table No. 7.1 Price Indexes. Table 7.1: GUATEMALA: PRICE INDEXES 1960, 196 through 1972 (preiminary) 1960 196 1966 1967 106, 196 170 11U9 Vholesale, Guatemala City 1950 100 105.2 106.3 105.2 105.0 112.1 117.7 120.0 119.9 123.5 Consumer, Guatemala City 1956 = 100 135.0 13)4.3 138.3 137.0 143.0 145.0 146.2 146.6 148.3 GDP deflator 1956 = 100 99.5 98.2 97.3 97.6 99.5 101.1 106.2 105.5 108.6 Imports 1956 = 100 91.8 l05.4 106.0 106.2 106.6 110.0 115.4 116.9 132.1 Exports 1956 = 100 93.9 67.5 83.4 79.6 80.4 76.5 Bb.6 61.7 75.2 Source: Bank of Guatemala.
Группа Всемирного банка · Pre-2003 Economic or Sector Report
Guatemala - Recent economic development and prospects
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