Tanzania - Economic development and prospects (Vol. 4 of 4) : A program of preinvestment studies

RESTRICTED Report No. AE-26 rmLE COPfY This report is for of ficial use only by the Bank Group and specifically authorized organizations or persons, It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND PROSPECTS OF TANZANIA (in four volumes) VOLUME IV A PROGRAM OF PREINVESTMENT STUDIES POWER - TOURISM - URBAN/REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSING June 22. 1972 Eastern Africa Department  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS 1 Tanzanian Shilling = U.S.$0.14 1 U.S. Dbllar S 5h 7.14 This report is based on the findings of a mission which visited Tanzania during August/September 1971. The mission consisted of the following: Messrs. Lyle M. Hansen (mission Chief); Pieter Bottelier (general economics); John Cleave (agriculture); Andrew Hayman (tourism); Esref Erkmen (power); Raimundo Guarda (consultant on housing and urban development).  TABLE OF CONTENTS VOLL-E IV A PROGRAM OF PREIUNESTMEWT STUDIES POg.WER - TOURISM1 - URBAN/REGIONAL DEVELOP'ENT AND HIOUSIN3C Pa, e wNo INTRODUCTION ............ I 1. PO2TR .................2 Background .................................................... 2 Developmcent Strategy and Initiated Preinvestment Stulies ...... Proposed Preinvestnent Study - Kidatu Second Stage Development. 4 Alter-native I ............5 . 5 Alternative II ................................................ Preinvestment Study Proposal Data Sheet ....................... 6 II. TOUIRISM ...8................................................... Backgroundi and K'ey Isstues ..................................... 8 Proposed Preinvestment Stuidies ................................ 9 List of Proposec. StudiCs ....... . . . 10 Preinvestment Stud'-y Proposoal Data. SheCLs ...... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 ITI. UIVR7AT/RKCIONAL DvEVELO?"'T.T A'TD E'OUSI`IC ........................ 23 3ackgrounm ................................ ........... . . 23 Government PolicV ar,d Prau-^rar!s .............................. 24 Centrtl Issus ............................................ 24 Thle Prooscr' Stuv d.................................... 24 Prirnvestrneat Stud", Propost:- Data Shcets ...... ................ 26   INTRODUCTION 1. This volume presents a program of preinvestment studies for three sectors in Tanzania. The program has been prepared by a Bank mission in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Development Planning, various ministries and agencies of the Government of Tanzania, and the Resident Office of the UNDP in Dar es Salaam. This report on three sectors completes the design of preinvestment studies for ten sectors in Tanzania initiated in 1970. The conclusions for the first six sectors were reported in the Bank report entitled, "Economic Development in East Africa", volume III (dated July 30, 1971). That report also outlined the objectives, methods and criteria of selection for preinvestment studies, and the reader interested in the details should refer to that volume. 2. There is no formal report being made on preinvestinent studies on the water supply and sewerage sector as it was the judgment of the Hank mission, concurred with by the Tanzanian authorities, that past, existing and planned studies adequately cover the requirements in this sector.   - 2 - CHAPTER I POWER (Sector No. 5) Background 1. In Tanzania the public power supplies dominate the sector account- ing for more than 80% (i.e. 122 MW) of the total installed generating capac- ity. The remaining 28 M4 of total installation is owned by various indus- tries mostly situated in remote parts of the country, far from any public sources of supply. The Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited (TANESCO), all of whose shares are owned by the Government, holds licences for the public supplies of power in all the electrified regions which cover most of the important population centers of the country. These licences are being extended from time to time to cover other and less important, regions as the electric service is extended to such areas. TANESCO is an efficiently run organization, enjoying a high degree of autonomy. 2. TAINESCO has an interconnected power system operating at 132 kV in the coastal region between Dar es Salaam, Tanga and Morogoro. This system accounts for 71% of the company's installed generating capacity, 63% of its 54,000 electricity consumers and 78% of its total 1970 sales of 341 million kWh. These figures reflect the concentration of urban population and gen- eral economic activity in the coastal region. Other population centers with considerable economic activity include the Moshi-Arusha area in the foothills of Mount Kilimanjaro with an installed capacity of 15 M;4, and the Mwanza area in the Lake Victoria region (7.5 MW). The Mbeya-Tukuyu area in the South-Western region (0.66 M;) is a center with considerable development po- tential. Twelve other population centers have public supplies of electric- ity, with generating equipment ranging from 145 to 2175 kW of installed capacity. 3. Hydroelectric power plant owned by TANESCO has a total capacity of 48 11J, consisting mainly of 17.5 MW at Pangani Falls, 21 MW at Hale and 8 !SI at Nyumba-ya-Mungu. All these stations are on Pangani River, the first two feeding into the coastal system and the other into the Moshi-Arusha system. A small hydroelectric station of 1.2 MW located at Kikuletwa on a tributary of the Pangani River also supplies Moshi-Arusha system. Another small hydroelectric plant of 0.34 MW on the Mbeya River is supplying Mbeya town. The remaining 71.8 MW capacity owned by TANESCO is provided by about 85 diesel generating sets, at 19 different locations. These units varv in size from 35 kW to 6100 kW. Under a Bank Loan the Ubungo diesel station in Dar es Salaam is now being extended by two 7.5 MN units, and a hydroelectric station comprising two units of 50 MW capacity is being constructed at Kidatu on the Great Ruaha River as the first stage development of the total scheme. Further development of the scheme involves the addition of two other units of the same size at two stages, one to be commissioned in 1979 and the other in 1982.   Development Strategy and Initiated Preinvestment Studies 4. The development strategy for the public supply of electricity for the next 15 years is set out and most of the preinvestment studies necessary for the major investment decisions in the next five years are identified and initiated by TANESCO. In the following paragraphs the salient features of this strategy will be given together with a short review of the already initiated major studies. 5. TANESCO completed in 1970 a study covering the technical, econo- nLical and financial feasibility of an interconnection between the Coastal and the Moshi-Arusha Systems. On the basis of that study it has already negotiated a loan from CIDA to cover the construction of this interconnection. The final studies leading up to the detailed designs and to the preparation of contract specifications are planned to be started by TANESCO immediately following the effectiveness of this loan. 6. The increasing power demand in the large interconnected power sys- tem formed by this interconnection will be met, up to the year 1979, by the existing power generation facilities in the two regions and by the output of the Kidatu First Stage Development under construction. According to the present plans, further needs of this system beyond that date are to be cov- ered by constructing the second and third stages of the Kidatu Scheme for which only a preliminary investigation was included in the preinvestment study undertaken in 1969 for the first stage of the development. A final study for the second stage is hereby recommended and it should be completed within the following three years if a shortage of power in the Coastal System is to be avoided beyond 1979. (See paragraph 13). 7. The future power requirements of the Lake Victoria region includ- ing the towns of Mwanza, Bukoba, and Musoma and the available means of meet- ing these requirements are being investigated under the Kagera River Basin Study recently started under U.N.D.P. Technical Assistance Project. This project jointly undertaken for the Governments of Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania is a predominantly irrigation scheme, but also contains the devel- opment of a very important hydroelectric element. 8. The requirements of the Mbeya and Tukuyu region are planned to be covered by the proposed Kiwira Project for which the final studies are ex- pected to be started by a team from USSR in a very short time. 9. Finally, an important preinvestment study is already underway for a hydroelectric scheme at the Stiegler's Gorge on the Rufuji River intended mainly for the development of power intensive industries in the country by making use of the tremendous power potential (estimated to be about 600 MW firm) at the mentioned site which can economically be developed only for very large consumption levels presently beyond Tanzania's normal require- ments. 10. The requirements of the remaining regions are being regularly surveyed and reviewed by TANESCOts own staff, and the necessary provisions  - 4 - are being included in the yearly investment programs. These surveys include also the extension of electric service to some smaller townships or villages, but within the limitations of the Government's Directive for operating under commercially and economically viable conditions, and in accordance with the exigencies of the national economic plan. Proposed Preinvestment Study - Kidatu Second Stage Development 11. A Study Sheet for the recommended preinvestment study is attached. Brief coTments on this Study are the following. 1;2. The civil engineering works presently under construction for the Kidatu First Stage Development are adequately dimensioned to accommodate the requirements of the second and third stage development. The second stage therefore involves only the construction of a low head regulating dam at Mtera, about 175 km upstream of Kidatu, and the installation of further turbo-alternator sets at the Kidatu Power Station. 13. The preinvestment study prepared in 1969 for the first stage dev- elopment includes only the preliminary investigations for the second stage development. An advanced study has therefore to be undertaken to update and complement this study so that the detailed designs and cost calculations can be prepared before the financial arrangements can be undertaken. Allow- ing about four years for these arrangements and the construction of the proj- ect would make it advisable for the advanced study to be completed before 1975. (See paragraph 5). 14. This advanced study involves the consideration of two different sclutions for Mtera dam as explained below: The original dam site at Mtera proposed in the preliminary investi- gations was selected on the basis of the geologic and topographic conditions which would give the required volume of reservoir for over-yearly regulation at the cheapest possible cost. However, the topographic conditions around this site are such that an alter- native site about 10 -- 12 km downstream may be chosen resulting in somewhat greater cost due to the relocation of about 40 km of the Dodoma-Iringa road, but providing the benefit of creating a possi- bility for the future use (beyond second and third stage development) of a sudden drop in the river bed elevation for the generation of about 100 MW of power at the Mtera dam area. This possibility can be ascertained by a small study (initial check) which would cost about 50,000 Tanzanian Shillings and should be undertaken as soon as possible with finances from TANESCOTs own resources. This initial check would show whether the alternative site may be discarded at the outset or whether it is worthy of further investigation in de- tail together with thie original site to lead to the selection of the most attractive solution. Therefore, the proposed preinvestment study for the second stage development of the Kidatu Project may consist of one of the two alternatives described below, depending on the outcome of the initial check mentioned above.  -5 Alternative I Updating the existing study in relation to initially selected site and completing the necessary borehole drillings, aerial surveys, ground survevs and soil investigations, anti updating the designs and cost calculations in sufficient detail to enable the prepara- tioti of contract specifications. Alternative II In addition to the above work, conducting the necessary field investigations in relation to topography, geology and soil mechanics, including aerial and ground surveys, borehole drill- ings, seismic measurements, road relocations, transmission line routings, etc. for a darn and power station at Mtera alternative site; comparing such a development with the originally conceived arrangement, and preparing the designi of selected solution with sufficient detai.l. and accuracy required for the prepiration of contract specifications.  Fopm Na. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE Ilt-691 ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORAT ON PREINVESTMENI PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET NO: 5 -1 i. IArea: Countr y: Sector(s): TAPZSANTA POTER 1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Final Feasibility Study for the Second Stage Kidatu Hydroelectric Devel. 2. PURPOSE: To determine the detailed technical, economic and financial feasibility of the Second Stage Development of the Kidatu Hydroelectric Scheme and to recommend ortimum design for the developrnent based on detailed cost estimates. '3. SCOPE: The Study should complete the necessary borehole drillings, aerial surveys, ground sur-veys, and soil investigations for the constraction of a low head dam at MItera, at the site already selected during the initial study ccnpleted in 1963, and should update this Study, the design and the cost calculations in sufficient detail to enable the preparaticn of the contract specifications. The scope may however, be enlarged to include the detailed| sLtudy of an anternative dam site and the determination of the least cost solution and its d resign pending the outcome of an initial small check to be undertaken by the Tanzanian Blectric Supply Company Limited wituhin the next few months. 4. BACQGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other AvailaVe Data (c) Expected Data Problems '- Report on Mar'et for Electri- city iHterz Mc McLellan March 1 66 Supplementary Report May I968 ii) Electricity Dev. in Tanganyi`ka Coyne et Bellier 1966 (iii) Preliminary Study Balfour Peatty & Co. ct. 1967 Feasibility of Steam Generating Station 'lay 1967 7 TIMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting Date --ne yrear Second cart rC -?7 6. COh*WENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS: 7. PROJECT(S) EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM STUDY (If known): (a) Description (b) Estimated Investment (US$ equivalent) 5$'i M'Tt Second Stage Develcpment of' Yidatu ;ydroelectric Scheme (c) Financing Need and Potential Source 8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): 1 Sheet Prepared by: PE. Erti:e 1t255.000 or $535,000 depending on the *cce o work Dept. or Agency: ublic Utilities Projects described under (3) above Date: Niovember 1w 2 1I71 9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: The Study is of the highest priority sinice it is Item(s) Revised: l related to the most important power consuming region Dept. or Agency of Tanzania. _ _ Date:  - 7* - .Rv No. 386.01 INTERNATIOtJAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE 1-691 ASSOCCI 4r' yu RECONSTRUCTIrO AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No. 552(I } (to be filled in when possible) 1. TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Tear -otal Man-hbrtins (a) Foreign Professional Staff: Alt. fIt. lr TKappi ng _ - Hydrology 2 2 Geology 1 3 Seismic Investigation . 6. Soil Mechanical Investigation 4.... 1 Road Studies ..................... Transmission line studies ........ Project k Design work ............____________ I 1_- I t i Total _ 20 26 (b) Local Professional Staff (c) Local Supporting Staff 2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local Total () Equipment&.00Currency Currency (a) Professional Staff Costs Cu c C300 285. ED&Y| (b) Equipment 2 Drilling 6a' Coo 8, | (c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 25,0oc0 1 70J.0r0| (d) Total 1 55 S '4(419 3. OTHER COMMENTS Continued from.... 1(1~ - Item b - Dackwrcund (iv) Wariu River Poer Development - S1ICED - Oct. i'6 (v) Hydroelectric Development on Great Ruaha River - Balfoaur Peattv% - Nay 1 6,!) 7 r (vi) Comparative Study - SWECO & Balfcur Beatty - JuLy 1.'y63 <rii) Preinvestment Study - C-reat Rua'ha Polver Project v. PJ - Nov. 1 2 6 vii) Renort on phase 7 Of Fl-oCC gical St ud3y l SUE? - .Scopt. iQ Supplement Prepared by: E. !r'7 me-1 Dept. or Agency: Public if.ili-;ies .tl ro,i Date: Novemb er 1 . 97- Supplement Rev sed by. Item(s) Revised:f Dept. or Agency: Date: |  - 3 - CIAX TE . II TOURIS{f (Sector No. 9) 3ackground and Key Issues 1. Tanzania has excellent beaches and unrivalled gamne. Although only slightly furtlher from the main markets than Kenya, Tanzania's tourist indus- try is still very undeveloped compared to Kenya, tourist arrivals in the two countries in 1969 being 56,000 and 221,000 -respectively. Vlirtually all holiday visitors to Tanzania also visit Kenya, where the greater part of their time and money is spent. Tourisr is estimated to haave brcught Tan2anlia gross foreign exchange receipts of 61 rm. Sdz. in i969/70. 2. H'otel accornodation has expanded considerably, but the total stock rem.ainls small. In the first two years of the current Five Year Plan (19(9/70- 1970/71) almost 2,000 tourist- class hotel beds hiave been built, of %which 1,157 were by the public sector. Occupancies of Par es Salaam city hotels have beeni very high, Dut that of lod,es and beach hotels generally poor so far. The Mikumi lodge in particular has suffered bv the lack, until recently, of complementary beach accoiTmTodation. However, bookings for the 1971/72 season look very encouraging. 3. Responsibility for tourist development rests with the Nqinistry of Natural Resources and Tourism. Reportirg to it is the parastatal Tfanczacia Tourist Corporation (TTC), established in April 1V0f,9. Ttte TTC took over a mixed bag of projects from the Aiational LDevelnpnent Corporation, aDu4 its suDsidiaries now include eigl-t hotel and lodige companies, plus copupatnies engaged in touring, hotel managem.ent, filo,makitig safari operatiri. ant gamLe fishing. 4. In 1973 tthe TTC comaissionedl Arthur D. Little (AUL) to prena-re a Tea Year Totrisr;, evelopjcr.t Plan. The repert is still only in d2raft forrm, hut on:e important nrrliminarv recoi7tendatinr -wa-s thit Ta3zniiia shouls develop soureicrn circu: s, including. largely unexpolo_ted .anle resoLrces. cogetner witlh oeac-k hotels near Bar es Salarne ioucevcr U thie time cf the russia ' vis it. thle government 'sas t2lieveA to be reviewing, its tourisml policy: al- though this had yet to be clarified, it seemed that a new policv mi,ht bJe announced directing development to the Northern Gae areas; to be served by the ne7 iilimanjaro airport, andl severely restrictin? investments if. beach hotels . Such a policy mav be entirely appropriate in terms of broader social obiectives, but the cost in tcrmKls of lost o,portunities to esplolt thie rapidly growling beaclh am! g:,ame package tour miarkHet should also be fullv recog,nized. J~ Inz v` eI cvw f :ae uncertaintv surrounding tin bastic cirection1 of tourism policv, and in consonuence of the preliminary nature of AD-L's Ten  -9- Year Development Plan, the priorities attached to any program of preinvest- ment studies must be extremely tentative. The proposed program is never- theless concerned with the following issues of the sector: (i) training and manpower; (ii) determining the feasibility of developing new tourist circuits; (iii) protecting and developing marine resources; (iv) providing for the optimum use of the natural resources of the Tanzanian coast; (v) protecting investments already made by preventing possible damage to the environment, (vi) determining means of reducing capital and operating costs. Examination of the final version of the ADI, report would be needed to define the scope of the above studies in such a way that they did not duplicate work already done. Proposed Preinvestment Studies 6. Tourism industry training study. A small scale study, for which I.L.O. assistance has been considered. Such a study would take account of work in this field already begun by the East African Community, but Tanzania recognizes the need for a tourism manpower program on a national basis. The filling of posts at all levels by appropriately qualifiecd Tan- zanians is a basic requiremuent. 7. Feasibility study of southiern tourist circuits. This study would, have high priority only if government policy accepted substantial develop- ments at the beach. Work has already started on the collection of ecological and other data in the Selous region, which up to now has been largely unknown. 8. Feasibility study - marine Larks. Although marine parks can be successfully operated as revenue earning projects, this study could have wider implications for the conservation of Tanzania's marine resources. 9. Land ca ability study, coastal _rLeion. The physical capacity of the coastal region for develonnent of different kinds appears to need de- tailed evaluation. The timing of suclh a study would be entirely determine-: by government policy towards coastal development. 10). Technical study, local beach protection. It is said that the beaches adjacent to the three new beach hotels north of Dar es Salaar are in danger of erosion and polution. Even if this daniger were exag,erated, the risk is such that an expert assessment is urgeiitly needed.  - 10 - 11. Hotel building and operating cost-analy is. It is crucial to Tanzania's success as a tourist destination that hotel construction and op- erating costs be minimized, consistent with the standards dictated by the requirements of the market. Institutional and fiscal factors may have a significant bearing on the realistic possibilities for cost reductions. List of Proposed Studies Suggested Duration Estimated Study Starting in - Cost No. Name of Proposed Study Year /1 Months (US$ millions) /2 9-1 Tourist Industry FY1971/72 2 - Training Study 9-2 Feasibility study FY1972/72 12 160 southern tourist circuits 9--3 Feasibility study, FY1972/73 6 55 marine parks 9--4 Land capability FY1972/73 12 140 study, coast 9--5 Technical study FY1971/72 4 36 local beach protection 9-6 Hotel building and FY1972/73 3 17 operating cost analysis /1 Timings all to be reviewed when governrnent tourism policy is clarified. /2 Excluding local professional assistance.  - 11 - FORM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (11-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 9-1 (i) Area: Country: Sector(s): EAST AFRCA1 TANZANIA TOURISM F. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Tourist industry training study. 2. PURPOSE: To provide an assessment of manpower requirements for the Tanzanian tourist industry under appropriate assumptions on the nature and pace of tourist developnent. To recommend training programs whereby posts at all levels may be most quickly and effectively filled by Tanzanian citizens. 3. SCOPE: The study would be limited to Tanzania, but would take account of studies already initiated in this field by the East African Community. A ten year time scale would be appropriate. Investigations would be required into the tourism investment plans of the public and private sectors, the performance of existing training programs, and the availability of training facilities outside Tanzania. Attention would be paid to aspects of training at all levels, having regard to the Government's objective to fill all positions by well qualified citizens. 4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data Problems Arthur D. Little 10 Year Uncertainty surrounding Tourism Development Plan government policy on I.L.D. studies of tourism scale and phasing of training. Performance reports tourist development. of Hallmark Hotel School East African Community manpower studies. 5. TIMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting Date Two (2) months 1572 6. COMMENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS: Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism, through the Tanzania Tourist Development Corporation. Interest indicated by the I.L.O. 7. PROJECT(S) EXPECTED TO RESULT FRO4 STUDY Qif known): (a) Description (b) Estimated Investment (US$ equivalent) Extension of hotel training schcol. (c) Financing Need and Potential Source 8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: A. Hayman Dept. orAgency: Tourism Projects Dept. Date: September 13th, 1971 t9- STAFFIS COMENT OK PRIORITY RMI.KG OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: l Item(s) Revised: Dept. or Agency: _ Date:  - 12 - FORM No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (11-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 9-1 (2) (to be filled in when possible) 1I. TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months (a) Foreign Professional Staff: Tourism training specialist 1 2 Total: 1 2 (b) Local Professional Staff: Hotel adviser 1 (c) Local Supporting Staff 2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local Currency Currency Total (a) Professional Staff Costs 6,000 300 6,300 (b) Equipment * _ (c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 2,000 200 2,200 (d) Total 8,000 |, Coo 3. OTiiER COMMENTS Supplement Prepared by: A. Hayman Dept. or Agency: Tourism Prcjects Dept. Date: September 13, 1 971 Supplement Revised by: Item(s) Revised: Dept. or Agency: Date:  - 13 - FORM NO. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (11 .69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 9-2 (i) Area: Country: Sector(s): EAST AFRICA TANZANIA TOURISM 1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: FEASIBILITY STUDY - Southern Tourist Circuits 2. PURPOSE: To determine the technical, economic, and financial feasibility of developing new tourist circuits in the southern part of Tanzania. 3. SCOPE The geograpuical boundary of the studies is that part of Tanzania that can be effectively combined with the beach as an attractive tourist destinaticn. Special study would be givern to the Selous area. The time period would be 15 years. The scope of studies would include the evaluation of lodges with their ancillary staff facilities, roads, airstrips. Recommendatiuns would be required on institutional and finpncial arrangements for development of new circuits, as well as those aspects of game management relevant to tourism. 4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data ProDlems Arthur D. Little 10 Year Climate, topographical, Tourism Development Plan, and ecological data on Hallmark Hotels feasibility the Selous studies Roads feasibility studies 5. T7MING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting Date 12 months 1973 6. COMMENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS: Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism, through the Tanzania Tourist Development Corporation. 7. PROJECT(S) EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM STUDY (if known): (a) Description (b) Estimated Investment (US$ equivalent) Infrastructure and lodge development (c) Financing Need and Potential Source B. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (USS equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: A. Hayman $1 60,000 Dept. or Agency: Tourism Projects Dept. Date: September 13, 1971 9 STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: _ Priority depends on government policy still to be ltems)Revised formulated. If beach resorts to be developed, this I Rs study has high priority: otherwise, negligible. Dept orAgency Date:  - 14 - FORM No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (11.69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 9-2 (2) (to be filled in when possible) I TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months (a) Foreign Professional Staff: Architect Planner 1 5 Engineers 2 12 Economist 1 3 Ecologist 1 6 Marketing specialist 1 2 Total: 6 28 (b) Local Professional Staff Game expert 1 6 hotel expert 1 2 ~~n~~~ineer~~~~~~ 2 ~~12 (c) Local Supporting Staff : 6ce oist T 6 2. TENrATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivaient) Foreign Local Total Currency Currency (i_ (i) j (a) Professional Staff Costs : 80,000 8 000 8i ,00Q (b) Equipmient 10,000 5,000 1 5,000 (c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 26 ,000 31 ,OOC 57 , 000 (d) Total 11 ,000 4d ,00_ 1 60,000 3. OTHER COMMENTS (i) excluding cost of local professional staff. Supplement Prepared by: A. Hayman Dept. or Agency: Tourism Proiects Dept. Date: September 13, 1571 Supplement Revised by: Item(s) Revised: Dept. or Agency: Date:  - 15 - FORM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (11-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 9-3 (i) Area: Country: Sector(s): EAST AFRICA TANZANIA TOURISM I. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Feasibility Study - Marine Parks 2. PURPOSE: To assess the extent to which marine resources are in danger of depletion, particularly in those areas suitable for coastal tourist development. To evaluate alternative means of arresting any such danger, and to determine the technical economic and financial feasibility of establishing marine parks. 3. SCOPE: The study would be confined to coastal waters within fifty miles north and south of Dar-es-Salaam, plus such other specific zones as may be designated by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism. Technical surveys would be carried out to the extent necessary to achieve the above purposes: on the basis of which a recommended program would be prepared over a 15 years time scale. Specific areas requiring emergency short term action would be identified, and appropriate measures recommended. 4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data Problems Study by Dr. Carleton Ray Marine park studies Lack of basic Arthur D. Little 10 Year in Kenya ecological data Tourism Development Plan 5. TIMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting Date 6 months 1973 6. COMMENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS: Plinistry of Natural Resources and Tourism, through the Tanzania Tourist Corporation. Assistance should be sought from a Foundation or University. 7. PROJECT(S) EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM STUDY (if known): (a) Description (b) Estimated Investment (US$ equivalent) Establishment of marine parks. Protection of marine resources (c) Financing Need and Potential Source 8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: A. Hayman $55,000 Dept. or Agency: Tourism Projects Dept. I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~Date: September 13, 1971 9. STAFF'S COM14ENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: Priority subject to review by Ministry of Item(s) Revised: Natural Resources and Tourism. Dept. or Agency: Date:  - 1-6 - FORM No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (11.691 ASSOCIArION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 9-3 (2) (to be filled in when possible) I. TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months (a) Foreign Professional Staff: Ecologist 1 6 Marine biologist 1 6 Economist 1 2 Total: 3 14 (b) Local Professional Staff : Fisheries adviser 1 2 Economist 1 2 (c) Local Supporting Staff 2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local t Currency Currency (1) Total (i) (a) Professional Staff Costs 34 h,oo0 7,000 4i ,ooo (b) Equipment D 00 500 1 ,00e (c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 6,ooo 7,0co 13,00c (d) Total 40,500 14h500 55nnC 3. OTHER COMMENTS (i) excluding cost of local professional staff. Supplement Prepared by: A. Hayman Dept. or Agency: Tourism Projects Dept. Date: September 13, 1971 Supplement Revised by: Item(s) Revised: Dept. or Agency: Date:  - 17' - FORM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATtONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (II-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY OATA SHEET No.: 9- (i) Area: Country: Sector(s): EAST AFRICA TANZANIA TOURISM 1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Land Capability Study, Coast 2. PURPOSE: To determine the physical constraints on tourist developments at the coast. The study would cover the coastal region approximately fifty miles north and south of Dar-es-Salaam, and extend out to sea to the coral reefs. The study would determine the physical capacity available for tourist and other development, and provide indications of zoning requirements. The study would select priority sites for hotels, based on detailed technical studies beyond the scope of the Arthur D. Little study. 4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data Problems Dar es Salaam Plan Arthur D. Little Ten Year Tourism Development Plan 5. TlMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting Date 12 months 1973 6. COMMENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS: Ministry of Natural Resources & Tourism, through the Tanzania Tourist Corporation. 7. PROJECT(S) EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM STUDY (if known): (a) Description (b) Estimated Investment (US$ equivalent) Program of hotel investments along the coast. (c) Financing Need and Potential Source 8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: Andrew Hayman $140,000 Dept. or Agency: Tourism Projects Dept. Date: September 13, 1971 9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: I First priority if government policy is to extend Item(s) Revised: beach acocmmodation. Otherwise, very low priority. Dept. or Agency: Date:  - 18 - FORM No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (11-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 9-h (2) (to be filled in when possible) I TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months (a) Foreign Professional Staff: Architect planners 2 12 Economist 1 4 Marketing specialist 1 2 Ecologist 1 6 Hotel expert 1 2 Total: 6 26 (b) Local Professional Staff : Architect planner 1 6 (c) Local Supporting Staff Economist 1 6 2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local tal (i Currency Currency (i) To a (a) Professional Staff Costs : 7h,000 9,000 83,000 (b) Equipment 1 000 1 000 2 ,000 (c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff. etc.): 25 ,ooo 30,000 5 5,000 (d) Total 100,000 O,000 ,1hO,000 3. OTHER COMMENTS (i) excluding cost of local professional staff. Supplement Prepared by: A. Hayman Dept. or Agency: Tourism Projects Dept. Date: September 13, 1971 Supplement Revised by: Item(s) Revised: Dept. or Agency: Date:  - 19 - FORMA No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (11-69 i ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 9-5 (i) Area: Country: Sector(s): EAST AFRICA TANZANIA TOURISM I. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Technical Study, Local beach protection. 2. PURPOSE: To assess the extent to which the beaches and reefs in the region of the Bahari, Kunduchi, and Africana hotels are in danger of erosion or pollution, and recommend the most appropriate means of overcoming any such danger. 3. SCOPE: The study would be limited to the vicinity of the three existing hotels and any other contiguous sites designated for hotel development in the near future. The study would be concerned with short term measures to arrest any further deterioration, in terms of least-cost solutions. Attention would also be paid to the danger of oil pollution and the possible requirement for relocation of tanker moorings. 4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data Problems Arthur D. Little 10 year Tourism Development Plan Study by Dr. Carleton Ray 5. TIMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting Date It months 1972 6. COMMENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS: Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism 7. PROJECT(S) EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM STUDY (if known): (a) Description (b) Estimated Investment (US$ equivalent) Protection measures at beaches (c) Financing Need and Potential Source 8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: A Hayman Dept. or Agency: Tourism Proje-^ts Dent. $36,000 Date:September 13, 1971 9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: j First Priority. Item(s) Revised: Dept. or Agency: _ Date: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ._ _ _ __ _ _ ~  - 20 - FORM No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (11-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 9-5 (2) (to be filled in when possible) 1. TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months (a) Foreign Professional Staff: Hydrologist 1 4 Engineer 1 4 Total: 8 (b) Local Professional Staff : Ecologist 1 4 Engineer 1 4 (c) Local Supporting Staff : 2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local Currency Currencyi Total (i (a) Professional Staff Costs : 23,000 5,000 28,000 (b) Equipment 500 500 (c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 4,ooo 3,ooo 7,000 (d) Total 273500 8,500 36,000 3. OTHER COMMENTS (i) excluding cost of local professional staff. Supplement Prepared by: A. Hayman Dept. or Agency: Tourism Pro.jects Dept. Date: Septeniber 1 3, 1971 Supplement Revised by: Item(s) Revised: Dept. or Agency: Date:  - 21 - FORM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATICOAL FINANCE (I1-69) ASSOCIATION RECCONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No. 9-6 (i) lArea: Country: Sector(s): EAST AFRICA TANZAN1A TOURISM 1. NAVE OF PROPOSED STUDY: Hotel Building and Operating Cost Analysis 2. PURPOSE: To determine the main factors determining the level of construction and operating costs of hotels and lodges in Tanzania, and to indicate ways by which they may be reduced. 3. SCOPE: The study would cover all 'international' class accommodation in Tanzania, and projects still in progress. Having isolated the main reasons for the high levels of costs, the study would recommend means by which they could be reduced. A detailed code of standards for hotels and lodges of different types would be drawn up, having regard to the requirements of the most important markets. Recommendations would be made where appropriate on institutional factors, and fiscal measures. 4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data Probiems Hallmark feasibility studies Operating and TTO feasibility studies construction costs of Arthur D. Little 10 year Tourism non-TTC hotels. Development Plan 5. TIMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting Date 3 months 1973 6. C044ENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS: Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism, through the Tanzania Tourist Corporation. 7. PRD%ECT(S) EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM STUDY (if known): (al Descri;tion 'b) Estimated Investment QUS$ equivalent) (c) Financing Need and Potential Source 8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: Andrew Haymran Dept. or Agency: Tourism Projects Dept. $17,000 Date: September 13, 1971 9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: High priority if the Government intends to seek Item(s) Revised: finAncing for a major program of hotel and lodge Op or Agency: investment. Otherwise, low priority. . Date:  - 22 - FaRM No. 386.01 INTERNATICNAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE ('1-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 9-6 (2) (to be filled in when possible) I TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months (a) Foreign Professional Staff: Architect 1 2 Quantity Surveyor 1 1 Hotel specialist 1 1 Total: 3 4 (b) Local Professional Staff Architect 1 2 Hotel Adviser 1 1 (c) Local Supporting Staff 12. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local Total i Currency Currency i (i) (a) Professional Staff Costs 11,000 3,000 4,000 (b) Equipment (c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 2,000 1 ,000 3,000 (d) Total 1 3,000 4, 00 17,o000 3. OTHER COMMENTS (i) Excluding cost of local professional staff. Supplement Prepared by: A. Hayman Dept. or Agency: Tourism Projects Dept. Date: September 13, 1971 Supplement Revised by: Item(s) Revised: Dept. or Agency Date:  - 23 - CHIAPTER III URBAN/REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSING (Sector No. 10) Background 1. Tanzania is characterized by a few urban growth centers in well defined regions. These include the region around the capital city, Dar es Salaam, the agricultural and tourist belt from Tanga to lIwanza, and the areas around 1beya, near the Zambian border, and Mwatara, near the Mozambique border. Growth is also occuring along the main transport routes, especially along the railways and main roads. The regions mentioned above are growing faster than the rest of the country because they either have good agricultural and/or tourist potential, or they are alreadv well estab- lished industrial centers with good transportation lines. Up to now then, regional growth has been influenced largely by economic and demographic forces. 2. In 1970, the population of Tanzania was 12.9 million, widely scattered over an area of 364,000 square miles. The urban population, in- cluding cities and towns with 1800 or more people, was approximately 774,000 or about 6.5% of the total. The national population was growing at approx- irmately 3% and that of the urban areas at about 7%. Assuming that the growth rates observed in 1970 will be maintained, 2.7 milliotn and 19.5 million of the country's population will be found in the urban and rural areas respec- tively by 1987. Tanzania will therefore remain a predominantly rural country. 3. The population drift to the cities has concentrated on the capital, Dar es Salaam. In 1967, the last census year, Dar es Salaam had 272,000 people - a population larger than the next nine largest cities and towvns put together. 1Uhereas the urban areas as a whole grew by about 6.3% a year between 1957 and 1907, Dar es Salaam, grew by 7._