DOCUMENT OF INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Not For Public Use Report No. AW-39a THE RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF CAMEROON (in two volumes) VOLUME I THE MAIN REPORT October 19, 1972 Western Africa Region This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report. CONVERSION TABLE US$ 1 CFAF 255.79 CFAF : US$ 0.0039 CFAF 1 FF 0.02 FF l CFAF 5o.oo PREFACE The last report on the Cameroon economy "Current Economic Situation and Prospects of the Republic of Cameroon", in five volumes, was distributed on December 21, 1970. This report also contained annexes on agriculture, forestry, transport and industry. The present report is based on the find- ings of a mission which visited Cameroon in November 1971, composed of Mr. Richard Westebbe (Chief), and Mr. Yves Franchet who served as economist primarily concerned with the revision of the national accounts. Mr. Westebbe discussed the draft report with the Government in May 1972. The report was revised on the basis of information received from Cameroonian authorities following these discussions. Volume I discusses important recent economic developments, particularly government finance and public savings, and the general feasibility of the new five-year plan. The second volume covers the revised national accounts and the methodology used to bring them into accord with the UN system and to convert them to constant prices. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. MAP COUNTRY DATA SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS INTRODUCTION ................................ 1 I. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS .............................. 1 A. Cocoa and Exports .............................. 1 B. GDP Origins and Expenditures ................... 5 C. Employment, Wages and Prices ................... 9 D. Money and Credit .....................*.......... 11 II. PUBLIC FINANCES ................................ *. 13 A. Recent Budgetary Developments .................. 13 B. 1971/72 Outlook ................................ 15 C. Changes in the Fiscal System ................... 16 III. THE PLAN AND GROWTH PROSPECTS ....................... 17 A. Plan composition ............ 17 B. Major Growth Problems .......................... 18 C. Growth Prospects ............................... 21 IV. FINANCING PROSPECTS AND CREDITWORTHINESS ............ 25 A. Investment Levels .................. * ........... 25 B. Domestic Contribution ............ .... 25 C. External Finance ............................... 27 D. Creditworthiness ........... ...... 28 TEXT TABLES Table 1 - Estimated Cocoa Export Prices, Cost and Taxes 4 2 - Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Origin at Constant Market Prices 1964/65 - 1969/70 Selected Years 6 3 - Expenditure on GDP 8 4 - Consolidated Federal and Federated Budgets and Financing 14 STATISTICAL APPENDIX Table 1.1 - Population Characteristics (Regional, Urbanized, Density, Hospital Beds) 1.2 - Modern Sector Labor Force with Higher Qualifications in 1971 1.3 - Percentage of Non African Foreigners in Private Employment of Higher Qualifications 1.4 - Comparative Minimum Monthly Salary Scales by Sector and Category of Skills in 1969 2.1 - Expenditures on GDP, 1966/67 - 1970/71 3.1 - Balance of Payments 3.2 - Principal Exports, 1968/69 - 1970/71 3.3 - Imports 1965/66 - 1969/70 4.1 - External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1971 4.2 - External Public Debt as of December 31, 1971 5.1 - Customs Receipts 5.2 - Balance Sheet of the Treasury, June 1965 - June 1971 7.1 - Production of Principal Crops 10.1 - Third Plan Financing ANNEX I Investment and the Second Plan Table 1 - The Equipment Budget and the Second Plan Table 2 - Total Investments (Public and Private) for the first Four Years of the Second Plan FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON FPILWAY RM MAPDUGUP -rjce -ý I I - jrLOlth.tOl1 uJnjcr preliiin-.ry st(de RÖAD5 . Msån. tr-n,k tjtbotnL4cd 0~ Main trunk MOKO, I It EkNATIlüNAL A L RPÅRT .- PORI5 . SEAS)NAL ,lVER hi klIiCES -~f-2 - Gud ~~sr r - - . EEo Ba-fB a r Lom -.'IJ' . L GUFOBUEA REUBI of Rb ElP o -y E QUAT OR GUINE GF AUNI B Pjou CON m Brzaile NOVEMBER 1970 IBRD 2342R COUNTRY DATA COUNTRY: Cameroon POPUATION: 5.9 million (1971) DENSITY: 12.5 per km2 AREA: ' 75,45o km Rate of Growth: 2,1% (from 1963 to 1970) Ttical Status: Unitary State POPUIATION CHARACTERISTICS: HEALTH: Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000): 40.0 (1970) Population per physician: 22,000 (1971) Crude Death Rate (per 1,000): 19.0 (1970) Population per hospital bed: 393 (1971) EDUCAT ION: Primary School Enrolment: 70 % (1970) GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 1970/71: (1966/67 prices) Rate of Growth (%, Volume) (CFAF billions) 1964/65 - 1969/70 GDP 249.4 100.0% 6.h% Gross Investment 36.4 14.6% 12.1% Gross Domestic Savings 23.0 9.2% 2.0% Resource Gap -13.4 5.3% - OUTPUT 1970/71: (1966/67 prices) (CFAF billio*$ Agriculture 99.3 39.8% Industry 47.1 18.9% Services 103.0 41.3% PUBLIC FINANCES (Central and Federated Governments) (CFAF billions) 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 1969/70 (% of GDP in current prices) Current Revenues 0.0 45.6 52.1 16.2 Current Expenditures 4.6 39.0 4-.0 13.9 Debt and Capital Expenditure. a .8 - 7.5 -13.1 2.1 .1.6 - 0.9 - 4.o aJ Including extra budgetary capital expenditures. -2- PRICES and CREDIT: Urban Consumer Price Index (March 1963 100) Bank Credit to Private Sector Average Year Index A6 Change $ Change 1968 316.5 End of period: 1968 35.7 1969 118.1 1.3 1969 42.o 17.6 1970 121. 2.7 1970 46.2 10.0 1971 126.1 3.9 1970 3rd Quart. 42.3 1971 3rd Quart. 45.1 . BALANCE OF TRADE and FOREIGN ASSETS (CFAF billions) MECHANDISE EPORTS (CFAF biLlions) 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 Dec. 31 1969/70 % 1970/71 % 1970 Cocoa beans & Imports (CIF) 49.3 60.9 69.9 butter 23.2 (3.G) 16.6 (26.9) Exports (FOB) 52.0 66.4 61.7 Coffee 14.8 (22.2) 14.8 (24.0) Logs 4-3 ( 6.5) 4.2 (6.8) Balance *3.7 *5.5 -8.2 Cotton 2.6 ( 3.9) 4.2 6.8) Aluminium 5.4 ( 8.1) 5.2 (8.14) All others 16.1 (24-3) 16.7 (27.1) 66.4 10000 61,7 100.0 (US$ millions) Dec.1969 Dec.1970 Dec.1971 April 1972 ETERNAL DEBT ON DECEMER 31 Foreign Exchange Outstanding and Disbursed: US$ 114.1 Reserves with 65.2 77.8 66.2 45.5 IMF position DEBT SERVICE RATIO (1971): 4.5% (end of period) I13RD/IDA LENDING DECEMBER 31, 1971 (USs millions) Outstanding and Undisbursed IBRD IDA 010. 197 3r Qar376.1 2. See 1969/7eb Tal erur 19721. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i. Two developments dominate the recent economic situation in the Cameroon: (a) There was a continued sharp decline until recently in the price of cocoa (anticipated in the last economic report), and in the output of other major export crops. This setback has signifi- cant implications for investment, savings, employment, and the balance of payments. (b) A new development plan which calls for a significant expansion in spending has been adopted, effective June 30, 1971, for the period 1971/72 - 1975/76. It is based on the assumption that the past growth rates of agricultural exports, public savings, and private investment will persist or accelerate. The primary objective of doubling real per capita income in the twenty-year period, 1960-80, is retained, while "respecting the equilibrium of sectors and regions". ii. In the six years from 1964 to 1970, Cameroon's GDP growth rate in real terms averaged 6.4 percent. This was well in excess of the 5.8 percent rate required to achieve the objective of doubling real per capita income in the period 1960-80. Population growth is estimated at 2.1 percent an- nually. Agriculture, particularly cash export crops, accounted for the bulk of the growth in value added. There were impressive gains in manufacturing, construction, and transportation, which were supported by high levels of public investment in infrastructure and buildings. In 1970/71, the GDP growth rate fell to less than 3 percent, primarily due to declining output of coffee, cotton and groundnuts. During this period, the volume of cocoa production continued to expand. iii. In the 1960's, increased prices, particularly of cocoa, added sub- stantially to investment resources. By 1969/70, the increase in export earn- ings resulting from these price increases were equivalent to one-third of gross investment. Increased prices also caused higher customs revenues and greater stabilization fund resources. As export crops are grown mainly by small farmers, the increased rural incomes led to increased demand for manu- factured products; in the case of cocoa guaranteed producer prices were raised. Production of import substitutes rose sharply to meet this demand. After 1967, industrial activity increased most markedly in the field of cocoa processing, due to higher world market prices for that crop. In the late 1960's, private foreign investment began to fall off as some of the more obvious import sub- stitution opportunities for consumer goods were exploited. A slackening of confidence on the part of private investors concerned with Government inter- vention contributed to this sentiment. The Government has already taken steps to improve communication with private investors in order to strengthen the confidence of foreign investors. iv. Cameroon's balance of payments was adversely affected when the world market price of cocoa fell by over 30 percent from 1969 to 1971. As a result of this price drop and the reduced output of other major crops, the total value of exports fell by 7 percent between 1969/70 and 1970/71. Imports rose sharply in this period, leading to an overall trade deficit of CFAF 8 billion in 1970 compared with surpluses in the two previous years. The growing deficit in the balance of payments contributed to a CFAF 10 bil- lion fall in net foreign assets between June 30, 1971 and March 31, 1972. v. The slowdown of foreign trade in 1970/71 caused a deceleration in indirect revenues. The 1970/71 budge! was nevertheless in overall balance partly because current spending was siarply curtailed towards the end of the fiscal year. Savings in the public sector as a whole became negative due to extra budgetary spending and the subsidization of cocoa exports (net proceeds, after allowing for transportation and other commercial costs and taxes fell below guaranteed domestic producer prices). This caused a decline in the stabilization funds in the latter part of 1971, in sharp contrast to the substantial build-up in the last few years. vi. In 1970/71, the Government followed what was in effect a "compen- satory" investment policy. While cocoa and other export proceeds declined, cocoa producer prices were maintained and the Government drew heavily on the stabilization fund for newly authorized public works and other expenditures. The stabilization fund's resources declined by CFAF 2.9 billion during 1970/71. vii. The Plan projects a 7.3 percent rate of growth of GDP in constant market prices. This estimate appears too high in view of present and likely developments in export crops, the related prospects for manufacturing invest- ment and output, the lag in project preparation and the effects of the trans- port bottleneck. An average annual growth rate of about 4 percent for the period of the plan would be more realistic; the lower rate makes allowance for the deterioration in the terms of trade and public financial resource constraints. Development Problems viii. (a) A basic problem for the next development phase is the rapid shift of population from rural to urban areas. The level of urbanization was 22 percent in 1970 and may reach 38 per- cent in 1985. Douala and Yaounde have received the brunt of this internal migration. The biggest industrial center, Douala, suffers from growing underemployment and spreading squatter settlements with lack of basic facilities. The main problem in the cities will be to increase productive employment and plan land uses for housing and infrastructure. On a national scale a good deal more knowledge will be required before a policy on urban settlements can be formulated. (b) Cameroon has great potential for rural development, expanding both food output and export crops, raising rural productivity and income by labor intensive methods and stimulating the growth of presently backward regions with possibly important effects on migration flows. To this end, a new Bank-financed rice irrigation project in the North will raise productivity for - iii - a large number of farmers. Although the 1971/72-1975/76 de- velopment plan proposes to direct only 13 percent of public resources to agriculture, the increase in trained extension workers and better transportation to markets will provide important benefits to agriculture. (c) Industrial development, intimately related to urbanization, must be guided and aggressively promoted toward a new phase of growth involving where possible Cameroonian capital and entrepreneurship, but wherever necessary involving foreign capital and knowhow. This has been the Government's policy in the past. The best opportunities for industry lie in developing intermediate products for the domestic market and processed products for export markets. The production of plants for wood processing, oil milling, chocolate pro- duction, sugar refining, and soluble coffee, is steadily increasing. (d) Serious bottlenecks still exist in the transportation system, particularly in the port of Douala and the railroad Douala- Yaounde. The Bank is involved in projects which should even- tually eliminate these bottlenecks. In addition, agricultural areas lack feeder roads, and new forestry concessions cannot be fully exploited because of congestion in the ports and railways, and because of the lack of access roads. The transport bottlenecks have caused under-utilization of pro- ductive resources and entail the risk of hampering achievement of planned growth. (e) Cameroon's development has suffered from inadequate coordina- tion of Government action in education and agriculture as responsibility in these key sectors was diffused between the two federated states. The recent referendum creating a unitary state has already led to the establishment of central government ministries of education and agriculture. Preparation and imple- mentation of projects needs to be greatly strengthened by the Central Government if available foreign aid and domestic capital allocations are to be absorbed. ix. The third five-year Plan was announced at a time when prospects, particularly of exports, had deteriorated. The Plan calls for investment of CFAF 280 billion (after debt service), of which slightly over half is to be public. Of this amount, the federal, federated, and local governments would have been expected to finance about CFAF 51 billion and the stabilization funds CFAF 7 billion. x. The Government is aware of the need to limit capital spending in accordance with a system of national priorities and in line with available resources. Accordingly, the investment levels projected in the Plan are regarded as indicative. The mission has projected total investment of some - iv - CFAF 200 billion in view of likely financial availabilities and absorptive capacity. Of this total, CFAF 100 billion would be financed by the public sector. xi. The prospects for public savings are not bright as a result of the lower level of export prices. This year, a current budget surplus is unlikely. A sharp decline is expected in the stabilization fund, based on payments to producers at present or even reduced crop prices. Further, tax revenues are bound to be adversely affected by the drop in export prices. The short-run prospects for public savings depend largely on measures to improve revenue collection and to restrain spending. The Government in recognition of the situation has taken a number of measures to increase savings which can be mobilized by the public sector. xii. It would appear possible to increase income tax yields. Further, fiscal exemptions under the investment code could be reviewed and reduced, although care must be taken not to shake investor confidence. Customs duty collection could also be improved. The harmonizing of the revenue structures of East and West Cameroon following the creation of the unitary state should yield additional revenues. On the expenditure side, there is scope for greater restraint and perhaps economies after years of extremely rapid increases, particularly of personnel expenditures. The Government should consider formulating an austerity program which would separate priority investment from other expenditures in the funds allocated for the annual equipment budget. xiii. Assuming expenditures are restrained and measures adopted to raise revenues, public savings, including some CFAF 16 billion on the part of public enterprises, could reach, according to the mission's rough estimate, CFAF 36 billion during the period of the Plan. This would leave about CFAF 64 billion of the CFAF 100 billion projected public investment program to be financed by foreign grants and loans during the five years of Plan (1970/ 71-1975/76); such a level of external finance would seem in line with recent trends. On this basis, Cameroon's public savings would finance about one- third of public investment (excluding debt service). Cameroon's contribu- tion would be close to one-half of public investment including debt service. Creditworthiness xiv. Cameroon's external debt has been rising rapidly. In the past, this increase was mainly in the form of debts carrying long maturities and low interest rates. Recently, there has been some hardening of terms, partly because of a substantial rise in supplier credits. However, Cameroon's debt service burden is still moderate because it has been able to obtain the bulk of its external finance on concessional terms. If further increases in supplier credits are restrained and new debt is on terms similar to those in the past, total public debt service may be expected to be 6.5 percent of projected export earnings in 1976/77. This compares with a current ratio of about 4.5 percent and a 1970 level of 3 percent. In the future, Cameroon is likely to have a widening resource gap which, together with a recent rise in debt servicing, calls for caution in debt management. Making allowance for Cameroon's poverty level these factors indicate that the bulk of external finance to Cameroon should be on concessionary terms for several years to come. INTRODUCTION The Federal Republic of Cameroon contains 475,000 km2 and 5.9 mil- lion people. The estimated population growth rate is 2.1 percent annually. Population densities vary c6nsiderably and are greatest in the North, the Bamileke area, and around the two big cities of Douala and Yaounde. Per capita GDP is estimated at US$187 in 1970/71 at the then current exchange rate. France is the most important source of technical assistance, pri- vate sector capital, and management. It has been the main source of foreign aid but it may well be replaced by the World Bank and other agencies during the next few years. Cameroon is an associate member of the European Common Mar- ket (EEC), which is also an important source of financial assistance through the European Development Fund (FED). The EEC's trade advantage with Cameroon was reduced by cuts -- proposed by Cameroon -- in 1970, in the West African Custom and Economic Union (UDEAC) external tariff with the outside world. Cameroon is a member of the franc zone and the Central Bank of the States of Equatorial Africa and Cameroon, with Gabon, Congo (B), and the CAR. The CFA franc is fully convertible with the French franc and has kept its stable relationship with that currency during last year's realignment. Cameroon follows the exchange rate and monetary policies of the Equatorial Central Bank of which it is a member. It is consequently also a member of the franc zone. The country has considerable ethnic diversity with 200 tribes and 24 major languages. President El Hadj Ahidjo who has been in power since independence, exercises considerable control over the budget and pursues a policy termed "planned liberalism" under which private initiative is given the dominant role in industrial and agricultural development. The adminis- tration was becoming increasingly unified under the federal Government with a corresponding reduction in the role of the two states. In May 1972 a national referendum approved the creation of the bilingual United Republic of Cameroon thus abolishing the former three separate governments and four assemblies. The new unitary structure was supported as a way of reducing inefficiencies and costs, while improving coordination in key fields of economic and social development. I. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS A. Cocoa and Exports 1. The sharp decline in cocoa prices in 1971/72 was the dominant re- cent feature of the Cameroonian economy. The output of other major export crops also fell, causing a setback which has significant implications for savings, investments, employment and the balance of payments. Terms of Trade and Resources 2. Cameroon's export crop developments influence decisively expendi- tures on GDP and the financing of investment. From 1966/67 through 1969/70, the export price index rose by 40 percent, mainly due to the substantial rise in cocoa prices, compared with a 12 percent rise in the import price index. In 1969/70 the increased resources generated by the improvement in the terms of trade were the equivalent of one third of gross investment. The subse- quent decline in the terms of trade caused a loss in real resources equiva- lent to 2.2 percent of GDP from 1969/70 to 1970/71. Real resource losses may be equal to that level again through 1971/72, although cocoa prices have levelled off since the last quarter of 1971. The loss in resources after 1969/70 was the equivalent to 14 percent of gross investment in 1970/71. (Statistical Appendix, Table 2.1). Balance of Payments Impact 3. The total value of exports declined by 7 percent between 1969/70 and 1970/71, following an average annual rise of 9 percent from 1967 to 1969 (Statistical Appendix, Table 3.2 contains a breakdown of exports from 1968/69-1970/71). The fall in cocoa prices was the cause of most of this decline, although the quantity of cocoa exports rose slightly. Favorable prices for coffee left export values virtually unchanged despite sharp falls in the quantities exported - the new level approximated Cameroon's inter- national quota of 60,000 tons. Log exports rose in quantity, but not in value. Cotton exports reached 30,000 tons in 1970/71; triple the 1961 level. Aluminium exports fell slightly reflecting the diversion of the metal to domestic manufacturing. The severe decline in the cotton crop in the last season due to drought and the only partial recovery expected this year means that cotton will not play an important role in exports for at least two years (Statistical Appendix, Table 7.1). Planting of rubber trees in West Cameroon and rising output are reflected in the steady increase in exports in recent years. 4. In the last five years, imports rose by 8.5 percent annually, ap- proximately the same as the export growth rate. The composition of imports shifted away from food and other consumer goods in favor of raw materials and capital goods (Statistical Appendix, Tables 3.2 and 3.3). In the last two fiscal years (1968/69-1970/71), the value of imports rose by 24 and 15 percent respectively. In real terms, the growth was less impressive as import prices rose by 10 and 7 percent respectively in these years. Some decline in the demand for imports may be expected in line with the limited - 2 - growth foreseen in domestic demand and investment. The sharp recent rise in import prices, however, will continue to have unfavorable repercussions on the trade balance and balance of payments. 5. In 1970/71, for the first time in three years, Cameroon's trade balance was in deficit. The following table shows the movement of imports exports and foreign assets from 1967/68 through 1970/71. (in billions of CFA francs) 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 Dec. 1970 Imports (CIF) 48.2 49.5 60.9 69.9 Exports (FOB) 44.5 52.0 66.4 61.7 Trade Balance -3.7 +3.5 +5.5 -8.2 Change in net foreign assets -2.3 +4.6 +7.9 +4.6 -6.9 Source: BCEAEC and International Financial Statistics. 6. The difference between the trade balance and the change of reserves may be assumed in a rough way to represent current and capital account move- ments for which we have no details. In particular, it would appear that the rise in net foreign assets during 1969/70 was in part due to net inflows of official capital (Statistical Appendix, Table 3.1). Between the end of June 1970 and the end of December net foreign assets fell the equivalent of CFA francs 7.0 billion, a trend which may persist in view of the heavy and grow- ing foreign trade deficit in 1970/71. 7. The effects on Cameroon's import prices of the recent exchange rate adjustment would appear to be small, as about 17 percent of total trade is with countries (USA and others) where currencies were devalued by 8 percent against the CFA franc, and about 22 percent with countries (the Netherlands and Germany) whose currencies were revalued against the CFA franc. As world market cocoa prices are based on dollar area price changes the revaluation of the CFA franc versus the dollar further reduced Cameroon's export proceeds in CFA francs. Food imports, which are important for the growing urban centers, amount to some 10 percent of total imports and are unlikely to be affected as they come largely from the franc zone which accounts for over 60 percent of Cameroon's imports. 8. Balance of payments estimates for 1968, 1969 and 1970 show trade balance surpluses for both years which are more than offset by heavy net freight, other service and factor income payments. The figures are not entirely reliable. Table 3.1 in the Statistical Appendix shows the breakdown of these estimates in detail. The 1968 figure for imports appears to be underestimated; - 3 - freight payments may be overstated. Factor income payments are probably understated and other services overstated. Official grants cover from a third to a half of the current account deficit and official and private long term capital the rest. Import factor payments and capital flow figures are quite volatile in the period covered and are believed to be underestimated. The errors and omissions balancing item amounted to CFAF 13 billion in 1969 and CFAF 9 billion in 1970, amounts which approximate the total size of estimated transfers and long term capital flows in these years. Public Savings Impacts 9. The cocoa price decline had a particularly marked effect on public savings and, accordingly, on the capacity of Cameroon's capacity to finance development. The Government collects important taxes from cocoa exports. It also has the use of the stabilization funds resources which increase during periods when net export prices exceed domestic farmer price support levels. 10. From 1969 to 1970, the world market price of cocoa declined from an annual average 45.7 cents a lb to 34.2 cents a lb, a fall of 26 percent. By November 1971, the price of cocoa fell to 25.2 cents a lb, or a further 26 percent. In the first part of 1972 the price rose again to over 30 cents a lb, but the IBRD forecasts no basic improvement over the 25-26 cents level through 1975. The revaluation of the CFA franc vis-a-vis the dollar has the effect of reducing the export proceeds in local currency for such commodities as coffee which are sold to the U.S. by a further 8 percent in the coming crop year. The stabilization fund maintains producer prices at specified levels and pays the producers a subsidy if the net export price falls below the producer price (see Table 1). For the 1971/72 crop year cocoa producer prices were raised to CFAF 90 for first quality, CFAF 75 for second quality and CFAF 65 for third quality, compared with a top price of CFAF 85 last year for the first two qualities and CFAF 70 for the lowest. This new system is designed to give incentives to raise the average quality of cocoa marketed. The draft budget of the Cocoa Stabilization Fund for the campaign year begin- ning in October 1971 calls for price support payments of CFAF 3.7 billion plus CFAF 1.5 billion in arrears from 1970/71, making a total estimated draw down of CFAF 5.2 billion by the end of the crop year in 1972, which would have exhausted the fund. The budget may be unduly pessimistic since on the basis of current price support payments of about CFAF 23 a kilo to farmers, total payments for the year would have been about CFAF 2.6 billion, and less at the higher prices prevailing in the first size months of 1972 11. Under the financial circumstances facing the stabilization fund, it would be difficult to maintain producer prices should a new decline in world market prices take place. The recent depletion of the stabilization funds is discussed in Chapter II. The Cotton Stabilization Fund was partly drawn down to pay income maintenance subsidies to farmers, in compensation for their drought stricken crop. -4- Table 1: ESTIMATED COCOA EXPORT PRICES, COSTS AND TAXES (in CFAF) FY68/69 FY69/70 FY70/71 FY71/72 Preliminary estimates International C.I.F. price per kg 194 258 199 16 per lb (cents) (40) (39) (31) (24) Ocean freight and other costs 18 18 18 19 Douala, F.O.B. price per kg 176 2L0 181 127 Export tax 27 34 34 34 Costs including Stabilization Fund tax, Exporters profit allowances, other taxes and charges and transport to Douala 26 53 25 59 2 58 26 60 Net price 123 181 123 67 Price guaranteed to producers (CFAF per kg) 70 85 85 90 Price per kg to Stabilization Fund +53 *96 .38 -23 Cocoa production (in 1,000 m.t.) 107.2 120.9 122.1 110 of whichi Cocoa exports 64.9 77.1 78.5 78 Cocoa Stabilization Fund changes in period 1/ (theoretical) in billion CFAF +3.h *7.4 *2.9 -2.6 Actual changes in all Stabilization Funds 1/ ..5 #7.8 -2.9 Cocoa export taxes yield, in billion CFAF 1.8 2.6 2.7 Percentage of Current Revenues 4.1% 5.5% 5.0c Current consolidated Govertnment Revenues (in billion CFAF) h2.3 07.1 53.5 Actual changes in Cocoa Stabilization Fund balances may differ from these figures because of delays in recording transactions and because of withdrawals. Source: Caisse de Stabilisation, and IBRD estimates. - 5 - B. GDP Origins and Expenditures 12. Between mid-1964 and mid-1970, Cameroon's GDP growth rate in real terms averaged 6.4 percent annually (11.2 percent in current prices) 1/. This rate was in excess of the 5.8 percent rate required to achieve the primary national economic objectives of doubling real per capita income in the twenty-year period, 1960-80. Population growth is estimated at 2.1 percent annually. In 1970/71. the real GDP growth rate fell to an 2.6 percent (based on preliminary estimates) primarily due to the declining output of coffee, cotton, and groundnuts, although cocoa as mentioned earlier expanded in volume. Table 2 shows the growth of GDP in constant prices. 13. Agriculture accounted for slightly over half of the increase in value added in real terms in the five years from 1964/65 to 1969/70. The quantity index of cash crops mainly for export, rose by 8.4 percent on an average annual basis in this period; coffee, cocoa, groundnuts and cotton seed value added contributed in almost equal absolute amounts to this rise. Food crops rose by an average annual rate of some 3.7 percent, evidently reflecting the response of traditional producers to rising urban demand (see Volume II, Table 7). The other main sources of growth were manufac- turing and construction as well as transport and communication which re- flected heavy investments in infrastructure. Government services expanded at a slightly lower rate than the GDP. 14. As a consequence of this growth pattern, modern sector activities continued to rise as a proportion of the GDP, from 47 percent in 1965 to 51 percent in 1969. Between 1964/65 and 1970/71, mining, manufacturing and construction rose from 17 to 19 percent of the GDP. The rapid growth of cash crop output has caused the share of agriculture to rise from 38 percent of GDP to 40 percent during the past five years. 15. The heavy dependence of the Cameroon economy on export markets for agricultural products is also a source of vulnerability even though out- put is reasonably diversified. Manufacturing output rose by an estimated 6.6 percent at constant prices, which is close to the recent average growth rate and reflects past investments in import substitution industries prim- arily food, textiles and shoes, and the fact that domestic demand was main- tained. Aluminium output continued to expand both for export as well as for manufactured products for the domestic market. 1/ The national accounts figures used in this report differ from the fig- ures in the last economic report because of revisions made during the recent updating mission. In brief, a portion of value added formerly assigned to trade has been restored to cash agriculture. Further, the growth of traditional agricultural output has been revised upward on the basis of more recent information. Volume II contains detailed information on these revisions, and the methodology used to convert GDP and its components into constant prices. -6- Table 2: GROSS DOIESTIC PRODUCT BY INDUSTRIAL ORIGI AT CONSTANT 4ARKET PRICES 196h/65 - 1969/70 SLECTED Y1ARS (in billions 1966/67 CFA francs) 969/70Gro 1961/65 Rate Average An- 1970/71 1964/65 1966/67 1968/69 1969/70 nual rate 1970/71 1969/etu 2/ of g,row-t1 / Agriculture lf 67.8 77.7 91.8 101.4 8.11% 99.3 -2.1 Mining 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.14 - 0.h - Maufacturiig 19.2 20.8 24.2 27.1 7.1% 28.9 6.6 ConCtruction 10.8 12.0 13.9 14.6 6.2% 15.3 11.7% Public Utilities 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.4 - - 2.5 Banking, Insurance, Real Estate 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 - 1.1 ~ Transport and Tele- coimunications 11.9 13.6 17.6 19.9 10.9% 19.4 ~ Trade 38.6 38.7 39.6 112.9 2.1% 45.3 5.6( GovernicnL Services 19.6 20.6 23.3 25.8 5.6% 28.2 10. OLher wrvices 6.8 7.h 8.3 8.6 .18% 9.0 11.17" GDP 178, 3 .19 22.)6 f gg 2. /Includos coffee processsing and firc-ood. 2f Preliminary estimntes. Source: IDRD mission. - 7- 16. Based on GDP data in constant market prices, consumption increased from 86 percent to 90 percent of GDP in the last six years (Statistical Ap- pendix, Table 2.1). Investment, on the other hand, has not shown a similar increase. Investment levels appear to be governed more on a year to year basis by the effects of decisions to invest by foreign private investors and government capital spending policies. The savings generated by the rise in cocoa prices benefitted the public sector through the increase in stabilization fund resources as well as through taxes on foreign trade and incomes discussed earlier. After 1968/69, the increase in prices paid to domestic producers influenced private activity through the impact on the demand for the domestically produced manufactured goods and services and for imports. 17. Gross domestic savings in current prices rose from 14.1 percent of GDP in 1967/68 to estimated 17.3 percent in 1969/70. The increase was made possible by the favorable movements in the terms of trade discussed earlier (Text Table 3). The reversal in this trend in 1970/71 together with the outflow of factor payments has probably meant that national savings covered a smaller proportion of investments and that the resource surplus turned into a deficit. 1/ 1/ GDP and its components estimated in constant prices will not show the real resources generated by the increase in export prices. Thus, in 1969/70, there is a resource gap of CFAF 7.2 billion in constant prices and in current prices a resource surplus of CFAF 5.3 billion. In order to show the impact on resources in constant prices of terms of trade changes Statistical Appendix, Table 2.1 deflates exports by the import price index and shows gross domestic income, which is a measure of GDP in constant prices including the resource impact of terms of trade changes. In 1970/71, the resource gap in constant 1966/67 prices was accordingly CFAF 13.4 billion. - 8 - Table 3: EXPENDITURE ON GDP (in billion current CFAF) 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70* Current Prices Consumption Public (26.0) (28.1) (30.9) (34.7) (37.5) (40.7) Private (113.3) (121.0) (133.1) (153.4) (168.7) (191.7) Total 139.3 149.2 164.0 188.1 206.2 232.4 Investment Machinery and equipment (8.2) (8.0) (12.7) (15.3) (11.7) (17.8) Construction (16.8) (19.9) (19.0) (19.3) (20.4) (25.5) Changes in stocks (n.a.) (n.a.) (n.a.) (n.a.) (n.a.) (n.a.) Total 25.0 27.9 31.7 34.6 32.1 43.3 Exports of goods and nf services 38.4 34.9 36.5 44.5 52.0 66.2 Imports of goods and nf services 37.4 37.5 38.0 48.2 49.5 60.9 GDP, market prices 165.3 174.4 194.2 219.0 240.8 281.0 Gross Domestic Savings 26.0 25.2 30.2 30.9 34.6 48.6 as % of GDP 15.7 14.4 15.6 14.1 14.3 17.3 Gross Investment as % of GDP 15.3 15.9 16.3 15.7 13.3 15.4 * Estimates. 18. Domestic savings are calculated as a residual between consumption estimates and GDP and are therefore of uncertain reliability. National savings are difficult to estimate in the absence of reliable balance of payments statistics on factor payments and receipts from abroad for the private sector (see Statistical Appendix, Table 3.1, Balance of Payments). Prelim- inary estimates show that the investment rate in real terms was maintained in 1970/71, the decline in private investment has tended to be offset by an increase in public investment for the past three years. - 9 - C. Employment, Wages and Prices 19. Employment rose impressively in recent years, although there are now signs of a slow down. The recent officially decreed rise in wages rates may, at least temporarily, further diminish incentives for employment growth. 20. In 1971 employment by members of syndicate of industrialists (SYNDUSTRICAM) rose by 18.5 percent over year earlier levels, which although less than from 1969 to 1970, was still impressive. Business activity rose by close to 18 percent on a year-to-year basis in current prices which is about the rate of recent years. Food, drink and tobacco manufactures (43 percent of Syndustricam sales) kept up with the rate of growth followed by mechanical industries, vehicles, chemicals and construction materials. Textiles, clothing and shoe manufactures had a lower rate of growth mainly due to a fall off in sales to UDEAC. 21. In 1970/71, Cameroon had some 170,000 wage earners of whom 30 percent were in public service and 70 percent in the private and semi- public sectors; about 30 percent of this modern sector labor force may be classified as in the skilled and management category of whom 56 percent are in the private sector (Statistical Appendix, Table 1.2). These modern sector employees represented an estimated 7.6 percent of the active popula- tion between 20 and 55 years of age. Private modern sector employment (ex- cluding teachers and domestic servants) rose by slightly less than 6 percent annually between 1966 and 1971, reportedly far less than in the early 1960s (the last economic report contains information on this period). The most rapid growth was in the tertiary sector (11 percent), followed by the sec- ondary sector (4.7 percent), and the primary sector (3.7 percent). Public sector employment rose even more rapidly, by some 12 percent annually be- tween 1966 and 1971, partly in response to considerably higher pay scales than in the private sector, particularly at the lower levels of skills (Statistical Appendix, Table 1.4). 22. A major official reclassification of wages took place in 1971, which affected industrial workers mainly in Douala. As a consequence of the widespread upgrading which occurred, salaries rose by an average of 22 percent. This was regarded as excessive in some management circles, although as inevitable and hopefully a one-time occurrence in others. There is evidence that many workers were underclassified in the former system. The reform is believed to have contributed to social stability in the Douala industrial region. 23. The consumer price indices for three cities (Yaounde, Douala and Victoria) rose by some 3 percent in the year ending June 30, 1971; and by 6 percent during 1971; in the previous 5 years price increased yearly by 2 to 3 percent. The prices of many commodities in the price indices are officially controlled, and the coverage of the series is not regarded as representative. Controls are further difficult to enforce so that the index using controlled prices tends to understate price increases. - 10 - 24. Cameroonization of private modern sector employment has proceeded slowly. Foreigners represented only 2.4 percent of total private wage and salary earners in 1970/71 compared with 3.4 percent in 1965/66. Neverthe- less in 1970/71 Cameroonians held only 15 percent of private sector manage- ment-level jobs and 26 percent of senior -level technicians jobs (Statistical Appendix, Tables 1.2 and 1.3). They represent 94 percent of the category of skilled and highly-skilled workers. Ordinary workers constitute about three quarters of wage earners and are entirely Cameroonian. Training Cameroonians to fill jobs at the higher management and skilled levels, particularly in the primary and secondary sectors, is a major objective of current employ- ment and educational policy. The comparatively rapid growth of modern sec- tor employment in recent years has been accompanied by annual urban growth rates estimated between 5.5 to 6.5 percent. Yet, the fact that modern sector employment is a relatively small part of total employment means that a significant proportion of those migrating to the towns cannot find modern sector jobs and occupy themselves in marginal services pursuits. 25. The cities of Yaounde and Douala have a combined 1970 population of 440,000 which is about one-third of the country's urban population (urban is defined as settlements of 5,000 or more). Although these two cities con- tain the greatest concentration of modern sector jobs, they also attract a high percentage of people of working age. Underemployment and the growth of shanty towns, particularly in Douala, are identified as serious problems in official circles. The problem may become more acute if, as expected, modern sector activity experiences a reduced growth rate in the near future. That migration continues, particularly towards Douala and Yaounde, is an indication of the pull of even marginal service occupations, compared with the alternative of a relatively stagnant traditional rural way of life. 1/ 1/ Studies are not available of the age, ethnic and occupational composi- tion of migrants, the incentives to which they respond, their occupa- tion and incomes in urban areas and the conditions of housing and urban amenities available to them. The facts about the distribution of in- come between urban and rural areas and between regions are not well known (Statistical Appendix, Table 1.4 for a breakdown of official minimum wage scales by major regions). Even the distributional impacts of public policies and expenditure can only be analyzed in small part with available data. Despite a 60 percent rise in the number of hospi- tal beds between 1965 and 1971, the higher income urbanized regions of the center south and littoral had more than twice as many beds per capita as north region in 1971 (Statistical Appendix, Table 1.1), which has an estimated cash per capita income of CFAF 4,100 (US$16) annually. Primary school attendance is only about 30 percent in the north com- pared with over 70 percent for the national average. - 11 - D. Money and Credit 26. Credit to the private sector rose by 8 percent in 1971 (through November) compared with 13 percent in 1970 and 18 percent in 1969; the aver- age annual rate of expansion was 12 percent between 1966 and 1970. Varia- tions in credit to the private sector reflect mainly crop financing require- ments. The decline in the net creditor position of the public sector in 1971 is mainly due to the withdrawal of stabilization fund deposits, described earlier; as a consequence domestic credit expanded by 30 percent in 1971, which led to an unusually high, 15 percent, increase in the money supply. The increased money supply may have contributed to the pressures on prices in 1971 (Section I(c)), although part of this increased money supply was absorbed by the growing monetization of the economy. Net foreign assets of the system more than doubled in 1970 and then declined by 8 percent in 1971, principally following changes in the balance of payments position. The Central Bank exercises control of the monetary system through its rediscounts and by moral suasion. No change in Central Bank policy was evident in the period as the rise in domestic credit took place at the expense of net foreign assets. 27. The following table shows monetary development from November 1969 through November 1971. (in billions of CFA francs) 1969 % 1970 % 1971 Nov.30 Change Nov.30 Change Nov.30 Domestic Credit 31.34 9 29.25 30 38.13 (Claims on Private Sector) (39.67) 31 (44.63) 8 (48.25) (Claims on Government) (-8.29) (-15.38) (-10.22) Demand deposits 15.14 18 17.92 12 21.50 Time savings deposit 4.44 38 6.12 27 7.75 Net foreign assets 7.50 223 16.74 -8 15.40 Money supply 32.58 10 35.95 15 41.29 % of GDP 11.6 11.7 12.0 Source: IFS. - 12 - 28. In the past two years, the money supply has on the average increased by about the same ratio as estimated GDP in current prices. In the last six years, money supply has increased at an average annual rate of 12.5 percent and GDP in current prices by about 11 percent. Quasi money has increased more rapidly than the GDP. The ratio of money supply to GDP has been in- creased slightly in recent years, although it is still comparatively low. 29. The policy of keeping interest rates low, at 4.25 percent for high grade commercial paper with a 3.50 percent minimum Central Bank re- discount rate, may have had an impact on financial savings, and the will- ingness of business enterprises to keep funds in Cameroon. The Bank's effective rate to borrowers is about 2.5 percent above the rediscount rate; the Development Bank charges effective rates between 4 and 8 percent. Under present rediscount policies, small businesses may find it more diffi- cult to obtain credit than larger enterprises. The low cost of credit to public and private borrowers tends to encourage capital intensive investments. The tendency of the larger, usually foreign owned firms, to shift borrowing to Cameroon, with its relatively low interest rates, and to send their liquid funds abroad to earn higher rates is partially reduced through direct con- trols and rationing in the allocation of credit, although such controls admittedly operate imperfectly. Firms are being asked to agree to keep part of their earnings in Cameroon. Small savings have been increasing in the savings banks as at this level people have no access to foreign credit markets. Savers with such access can transfer funds abroad when interest rates dif- ferences make it attractive to do so. Accordingly, time and savings deposits continued to expand more rapidly than private credit or increases in the money supply (see text tabulation above). There is also a non-institutionalized flow of savings and accumulation of capital in tribal areas, the extend of which is not known but which indicates that an active market matches the supply of savings with entrepreneurial demand. The authorities are pursuing a policy of encouraging domestic savings through such means as requiring banks to open branches in the smaller centers, and the sales of savings certificates and equipment bonds. - 13 - II. PUBLIC FINANCES A. Recent Budgetary Developments 30. The consolidated Federal and budgets of the two Federated States showed a levelling off in the ratio of the current surplus to GDP between 1968/69 and 1970/71 to GDP at 2.2 percent. This followed several years of impressive increases. Table 4 shows the current capital and extrabudgetary accounts for the period 1968/69 through 1971/72. 31. Part of the levelling off in the current surpluses was due to the decline in the rate of increase in indirect tax revenues as export values fell. Contributing to the fall in the current surplus was a 15 percent rise in current expenditures between 1969/70 and 1970/71 after two years during which outlays had been held to 10 percent annual increases. Because of the prospect of a large cash deficit, the Ministry of Finance in the Spring of 1971 obtained agreement to block 10 percent of approved current expenditures in an effort to limit the emerging overall deficit. This measure is reported to have stopped expenditures of at least CFAF 500 million. 32. On the capital account, budgetary outlays declined slightly in 1970/71. However, in December 1970, extrabudgetary capital spending of CFAF 9.5 billion was authorized as follows: - The extrabudgetary capital account, which had received some 600 million transferred from the Caisse d'Investissements in June 1968 and CFAF 400 million in December 1969 for a variety of capital works, was increased by CFAF 5.5 billion in a grant for capital equipment and other purposes. - A grant of CFAF 500 million was made for emergency assistance funds. - Some CFAF 2 billion was allocated for a loan to build two new stadia in Yaounde and Douala respectively. - Advances of CFAF 1.7 billion were made to construct ministries, housing and to finance the Cameroonian Development Bank, the Societe Nationale d'Investissements and the Societe Immobiliere du Cameroun. 33. In July 1971, another CFAF 1 billion was advanced from the Stabil- ization Funds for the two sports stadia, making a total drawing of CFAF 10.5 on these funds since December 1970. The rationale for this transfer was that the Stabilization Funds were regarded as more than sufficient to cover even- tual needs of the.farmers, while additional capital spending was required as necessary to raise the rate of development investment to a higher level, in Table 4: CONSOLIDATED FEDERAL AND FEDERATED BUDGETOAND FINANCING (in billions of CFAF) 1971/72 United 1968/69 1969/70 1970/711/ (Budget Republic estimates) 1972/73 2/ Current revenue 3 L0. 05.59 52.08 58.Oa 66.85 Indirect taxes 25.20 31.34 33.97 40.42 43.70 Direct and other taxes and revenues 1h.9h 14.25 18.11 17.62 23.12 Current expenditures 23/ .60 38.95 42.98 48.62 0.11 Current surplus *5.hb +6.64 +9.10 +9.42 +12.7 Debt service -0.85 -1.03 -1.59 -2.25 -2.38 Capital expenditures (net) -2.96 -4.92 -Q.hL -7.80 -10.36 kudget surplus/deficit *1.65 *0.69 t2.67 -0.63 Other adjustments(including custom bills) -1.32 *1.16 -1.5L Balance *0.33 +1.85 t1.13 Extra budgetary capital -0.14 -1.61 -6.71 -9.50 Loans and advances -1.02 -1.05 -2.50 Deficit with treasury -0.63 -0.61 -6.08 Financing: Treasury deposits QL.28 *9.71 45.00 Changes in treasury liquid assets -2.97 -8.71 +1.80 *9.50 Other (including errors and omissions) -0.L8 -0.19 1.28 1 Figures for West and East Cameroon estimated. Federal receipts and expenditures are based on global figures in the draft Expos6 des Motifs de la Loi des Finances 1972/73. 2 Draft Budget of the United Republic of Cameroon. j/ Consolidated revenues and expenditures for 1968/69 through 1971/72 exclude the following transfers from the Federal to the Federated budget: 1968/69 - CFAF 2.29 billion,1969/70 - CFAF 1.49 billion, 1970/71 - CFAF L.00 billion, 1971/72 - CFAF 2.00 billion. h/ Provisional. Source: Minist6re des Finances et du Tr6sor. - 15 - line with general development objectives. 1/ During fiscal 1970/71, an esti- mated CFAF 6.7 billion of these extra budgetary allocation were spent and in 1971/72 a further CFAF 9.5 billion had reportedly been disbursed. This would not leave much in the Stabilization Fund resources for crop price support operations. In January 1972 a direct Treasury advance of CFAF 1.2 billion was authorized for the stadia. 34. In 1970/71, the Government followed in effect a "compensatory" investment policy. While cocoa and other export proceeds declined by CFAF 4.6 billion, cocoa producer prices were maintained and in addition, the Government drew on the Stabilization Fund by CFAF 6.7 billion to finance public works and other equipment. The use of the main treasury reserves was apparently made in the expectation that the decline in cocoa prices would not require large support payments from the Stabilization Fund. Treasury liquid assets in 1971/72 declined by some CFAF 9.5 billion accord- ing to preliminary estimates. B. 1971/72 Outlook 35. The 1971/72 budget forecasts a 15 percent rise in current revenues over the 1970/71 level, 18 percent over 1970/71 budget estimates and a 13.1 rise of current expenditures over the level of the previous year. In the light of the lower level of cocoa prices, which will have full effect in FY1972, and the past failure to restrain current spending, particularly personnel, below a 10 percent average annual rise, the budget may well turn out less favorable. This is especially so as no major new sources of tax revenues are contemplated, although as the Bank's last economic report pointed out substantial potential exists for increasing direct taxes, re- ducing exemptions, revising rates and making collections more effective. Further, the 1971/72 budget forecasts a 19 percent rise in customs revenues (84 percent of total consolidated revenues) whereas the rise in 1970/71 was only 9 percent. Indeed partial customs figures in this year indicate a shortfall compared with budget forecasts. Accordingly, the outlook is for a reduced current surplus this year even assuming an austerity policy in spending. Capital spending commitments are forecast at CFAF 7.8 billion in the consolidated budget in any event. Even assuming cuts can be made in lower priority investments, the size of past capital spending commit- ments are considerable so that the overall budget deficit with the Treasury including debt service could well reach CFAF 10 billion. 1/ From 1968/69 through 1971/72, Cameroon had increased funds allocated for the equipment budget by 34 percent annually. Actual spending rose by 66 percent between 1968/69 and 1969/70, and declined by 26 percent in the following year. - 161- 36. It is evident that given the prospect for an overall budget deficit, the necessity to finance extra budgetary commitments and crop support pay- ments, the Treasury will be hard pressed to finance the government from its available liquid assets. Accordingly, the Government is faced with diffi- cult choices in the areas of revenue increases, reduction of lower priority investment and additional recourse to foreign credits. C. Changes in the Fiscal System 37. Cameroon's public sector consisted of the Federal Government, the state Governments of East and West Cameroon, local authorities, public enter- prises (such as in transport, power and development banking), the agricul- tural stabilization funds, and a variety of agencies such as the postal and telegraph service, the national printing service and the central pharmacy. The Treasury acts as banker for the Government and handles the financial operations of the public sector. The provisional treasury balance sheets in the Statistical Appendix, Table 5.2, show how the net operations of the Government were financed through movements in and out of the asset side of the treasury, which contain the accounts of the correspondents and avail- abilities of cash and other assets. This table does not correspond fully with text table 4 which is based on a combination of more recent Treasury and banking system data. 38. The budget of the Federal Government accounts for about two thirds of the consolidated budget. Until 1970, the states were responsible for local administration, agriculture, education and public works. Starting in 1970/71, public works became the responsibilty of the Federal Govern- ment. The year before, the Federal Government took responsibility for police services. Accordingly, the 1971/72 budget shows a virtual elimina- tion of subsidies to East Cameroon, although the subsidy to the smaller but poorer West Cameroon Government was increased by 18 percent. Forma- tion of the United Republic of Cameroon will eliminate the financial role of the Federated states and increase that of the Federal Government. How- ever, in view of the time that will be required to integrate the various services it is unlikely that substantial economies will be possible in the near future. 39. A fiscal commission was already working to harmonize the tax systems of the two former Federated states. A common tax code is scheduled to be ready by July 1972. In harmonizing the separate tax systems no taxes will be lowered, instead the highest of the two taxes will be retained. The extra revenues are expected to enable the new Government to reduce its budgetary subsidies. 40. In 1970, UDEAC accepted Cameroon's proposal that the common ex- ternal tariff for non-common market countries be reduced by an average between 50 and 60 percent. The short term loss in revenues is estimated at CFAF 500 million annually by Cameroon, although in the longer run gains in revenues are expected from increased access to a wider trading area. - 17 - III. THE PLAN AND GROWTH PROSPECTS A. Plan Composition 41. the new third development plan for the period 1971/72 - 1975/76 calls for expenditures of CFAF 280 billion, of which half public. The plan is based on the assumption that the past growth rates of agricultural exports, public savings and private investment will persist or accelerate. The primary objective of doubling real per capita income in the twenty-year period 1960/80 is retained, while "respecting the equilibrium of sectors and regions" for equity reasons. The financing of the plan will be discussed in Chapter IV. 42. The sectoral breakdown of planned public expenditures is as follows: (Statistical Appendix, Table 10.1, for a full breakdown) Transport & Education Agriculture Industry Urbanism Other Communication and Rural 'ining Infrastructure Development Energy 38% 13% 13% 10% 13% 13% 43. The new plan like its predecessors places major emphasis, 38 per- cent of total expenditures, on transport infrastructure, which is to use close to half of expected foreign aid. These investments are regarded as vital for moving output from the interior as well as reducing regional im- balances. Roads will absorb about half of the transport investments prin- cipally concentrated on the North - South interregional axes, the Douala, Bafoussam Bamenda Link with the main highways to the West, and a number of farm-to-market roads. The new deep water port at Douala has high priority. Railways investments from Douala to Ngaoundere absorb about one-third of the total for transport with the object of completing the Trans-Cameroon inter- regional system. 44. Educational objectives include stricter pupil selection and up- grading teacher quality at the primary level, improved general secondary education and more rapid development of secondary technical education. Better supervision of the large private educational system is stressed. A number of higher educational institutions are to be set up including a Federal Polytechnic School, a School of Commerce, and Language Schools. About one fourth of new investments are for higher education facilities followed by primary, general secondary, and technical secondary. Private funds are expected to finance an additional third of general secondary investments. 45. Agricultural investments are heavily concentrated on integrated programs for cocoa and coffee rehabilitation, irrigated rice, cotton, and pineapple production and canning and development of banana, rubber and - 18 - palmoil plantations. Cattle production is to be increased through breeding and health programs. 46. The industrial sector program includes 30 large industrial projects the bulk of which have to be privately financed. Public projects are con- centrated in power and a proposed oil refinery. 47. About two thirds of urban investments are allocated to town plan- ning and public utilities, in view of the rapid rates of urbanization. Douala and Yaounde are to have industrial belts. Provision is made for cadastral surveys and a circumferential road around the capital. Housing is to be privately financed. Provision is made for rural housing and village water systems costing about 1 percent of Plan public investment. Other investments with important distributional impacts include a health program (3.8 percent of total public investments) to build regional and divisional hospitals, health centers, and train personnel. B. Major Growth Problems 48. The new five-year plan analyses priorities and sectoral require- ments in a comprehensive manner. Its feasibility will depend on the extent to which the programs and policies proposed will be able to overcome develop- ment obstacles within the prescribed time period. Transport 49. Lack of transport has been identified in the plan as a major and continuing development constraint. Bottlenecks exist from the in- adequate port of Douala to the principal national rail artery to Yaounde, and to the lack of agricultural feeder roads in the interior.. Yet pro- gress has been slow to the point where output targets are threatened. For example, delay in planning new logging roads in the eastern part of the country make it doubtful that the plan target of raising log output from one million cubic meters to 1.6 million cubic meters in five years can be reached. A number of logging entrepreneurs who shifted operations from the Ivory Coast in recent years have abandoned their concessions in Cameroon, in part because they reportedly have difficulty in shipping logs. Delays in completing long range studies for the new port at Douala will delay the start of project preparation and arrangement of financing. Plans for interim improvements have been approved. Urbanization 50. The population is shifting rapidly from rural to urban. In 1963, 16 percent of the population was urban (settlements of 5,000 and over). By 1970, the level of urbanization was 22 percent, and by 1985 may be 38 percent. Urban growth, particularly in the two main cities of Yaounde and Douala, has - 19 - already led to a growth of underemployment and unemployment. During the next five years alone, the supply of modern sector wage earners is expected to rise by 90,800 from a present 170,000, which represents about 25,000 more literate but untrained people than are likely to be absorbed in new skilled jobs. Crowded shanty towns are growing in a haphazard manner, without basic amenities. Iuch of this may be inevitable as part of the process of moderniza-. tion and indeed there are probably substantial further scale and external economies to be gained in the further growth of the two main cities, as well as selected regional centers. Cameroon has the opportunity to plan urban land uses, housing and infrastructure on a more rational basis and at lower cost, in order to avoid later the social and economic problems which beset countries that are at more advanced stages of the urbanization process. Before such planning on a national and local basis can take place, studies will have to be done of migration, urban occupations and incomes. As the plan recognizes, basic cadastral surveys will have to preceed land use planning. Rural Development 51. Cameroon also has possibilities for rural development, which, if exploited, could help stem the outflow from the land and thus release for other purposes resources which would otherwise be required for urban in- frastructure and services. Output is still largely in the hands of small farmers who produce both cash and subsistence crops on small plots, with largely traditional methods. A good deal can be done to reform the structure of agriculture through improvements in the credit, production, and dis- tribution mechanisms. 52. In cocoa, extensive replanting of trees is required to restore quality and increase output. Yet the young people needed to carry out this program are leaving for the towns because of lack of incentives. An example of what can be done in this respect is the Okala pre cooperative program, near Yaounde, sponsored by the UNDP and ILO, which on a small scale has raised farmer incomes improved storage and marketing and which has reportedly stemmed some of the exodus from this area. In food, a big step forward is the Semry Rice Project in the North, which is designed to meet growing urban demand for food while raising agricul,ural employment and incomes in a relatively de- pressed region. Additional efforts of this type might be feasible in the South. Even without government assistance, traditional farmers have responded to the market demand of the towns by raising food output by 3.7 percent annually. Important opportunities also exist for expanding livestock production in unused pasture lands with relatively low cost water and with reasonable transport costs to the growing markets. Cameroon now imports some 10 percent of its meat consumption, although it was formerly a meat exporter. Industry 53. Industrial investment has been decelerating partly because Cameroon is in a stage of transition away from replacement and consumer - 20 - good import substitution industries which have been the basis for past growth. In part, however, the climate for private business deteriorated, largely because of excessive bureaucratic intervention at the local level. The government has recently taken steps to improve matters, and the Pre- sident is personally directing an effort to open direct lines of com- munication with the business community. The new plan contains a number of industrial projects, with particular emphasis on industries producing intermediate products for local enterprises and transformation industries designed to produce exports. There may be reason to doubt whether the proposed 250,000 tons pulp and paper mill is feasible, although proposals in wood processing, textiles and vegetable oil extraction would seem to correspond well to Cameroon's potential. The prospects for industrialization will also in part remain tied to the growth in domestic demand, which as has been shown, are not too favorable given the outlook for cocoa and other export prices. Organization and Coordination 54. Cameroon's development progress will depend largely on its ability to prepare and carry out specific projects as well as to co- ordinate programs and policies in the key sectors. Improvement in these respects is a precondition to exploiting the opportunities and overcoming the obstacles discussed earlier. An effective agricultural effort can only be properly organized and coordinated at the federal level. Formerly, the two federal states controlled agricultural development, although they did not have adequate manpower, financial resources or the necessary in- stitutional structure. Much preparation will still be needed before key projects in agriculture can get underway. In industry, better promo- tional efforts and coordination will be needed with potential foreign investors. 55. In developing its human resources, Cameroon has managed to raise school attendance to over 70 percent of the eligible population in primary and 8 percent in secondary education. Yet, as the Plan recognizes, the quality of these schools is low in large part because of unqualified teachers. A great need exists to increase the number of trained people to fulfill the demands of an increasingly complex economy for skilled manpower, and to eventually replace expatriates who dominate the higher management and tech- nical positions. Before this can be done effectively, the entire educational system including the important part run by the private sector, will need to be coordinated through a central planning unit. Under the new unitary state the separate primary school systems of the two federated states will presumably be coordinated with each other and with the federal secondary and technical school systems. East Cameroon maintained separate secretariats of state for agriculture and animal husbandry, each of them being responsible for its own education and training institutions, a fact which was a barrier to policy coordination, raised costs and made difficult foreign financing of schools. - 21 - 56. Cameroon has an unusually capable cadre of civil servants and technicians who have managed the economy with a good deal of success. Nevertheless, in both the public and private sectors, until adequate numbers of trained Cameroonians are available, foreign expertise will continue to be necessary. The Government, in recognition of this, has pursued the policy of Cameroonization of jobs with moderation. 57. A useful way of bringing the forces of Government to bear on the problems of project preparation and financing would be the creation of a projects bureau in the Ministry of Planning, which could follow and supervise projects from preparation through completion. Such a central mechanism would appear essential if an adequate pipeline of projects is to be kept up and available foreign aid and domestic capital allocations absorbed on time. 58. The Ministry of Plan and Regional Development is preparing to strengthen its role in the resource allocation and programming process. A proposal being considered would set up multi-disciplinary project teams in the main ministries to administer the process of sectoral project prepara- tion and execution under the general control of the Ministry of Plan and in accordance with an annual development plan. A permanent National Plan- ning Commission (with sectoral commissions) is to propose the annual plan in the light of experience and five-year Plan priorities, and indicate its capital and current spending requirements before the annual budget exercise. Difficulties remain to be overcome in integrating the annual budget and plan, which will be discussed in paragraph 69. C. Growth Prospects 59. The Plan projects a 7.3 percent rate of growth of GDP in constant market prices. This estimate appears too high in view of present and likely developments in export crops, the related prospects for manufacturing invest- ment and output, the lag in project preparation and the effects of the trans- port bottleneck. An average annual growth rate of about 4 percent for the period of the plan would be more realistic; the lower rate makes allowance for the deterioration in the terms of trade. 60. The prospects for maintaining the past high rates of growth of GDP and investment are not favorable for the next few years, in view of resource constraints and lack of project preparation. Private invest- ment for import substitution was already showing signs of nearing saturation in many lines and will not be encouraged by domestic demand prospects. A recent survey conducted by SYNDUSTRICAII gives a somewhat more optimistic picture as it shows that for 15 out of 28 branches of activity existing private investors by the end of the first year of the Plan realized 12 percent of Plan targets and expect to achieve a further 35 percent in the remaining period (1972-75). On the other hand, investments realized in - 22 - 1971 were 8 percent below the level of 1970. Indeed, if as suggested earlier, the Government is forced to cut prices paid to cocoa farmers, demand could be seriously affected. The outlook is for no marked recovery in output of either modern sector industrial or cash crops. Accordingly, the major factors which can contribute to growth of GDP in the short term will be public infrastructure financed increasingly from abroad. The growth rate of traditional farm production is expected to be maintained. The external resource gap is likely to widen further as efforts are made to compensate for the decline in cocoa prices and the afore mentioned setbacks in the output of other cash crops. The prospects for public re- source mobilization and government policies in this respect are further discussed below. 61. A higher growth rate would be possible if the output and prices of cash export crops, particularly cocoa and coffee, were to exceed greatly our estimates and if higher than expected levels of private foreign invest- ment takes place. The growth rate is much less sensitive to variations in the output of other sectors. 1/ The following table compares Plan projections for the major parameters of the national accounts with projections made by the mission through 1976/77, which is a five-year period from the present: 1/ If export agricultural output is maintained at the 5.4 percent growth rate projected in the plan, the GDP growth rate would rise from 4.2 to 4.8 percent under ceteris paribus assumptions. - 23 - Plan Projections Mission Projection Current 1976/77 1976/77 Indicator Unit level /1 Abso- Growth Abso- Growth 1970/71 luteL-2 rate lute rate GDP (constant CFAF bil. 249.4 380.6 7.3% 319.2 4.2% 1966/67 prices) Population million 5.8 6.6 2.1% 6.6 2.1% GDP per capita (constant prices 1966/67) $US 168.0 225.0 5.0% 189.0 2.0% Investment " " CFAF bil. 36.4 57.1 7.8% 43.0 2.8% Savings (gross domestic) CFAF bil. 23.0 56.7 16.2% 32.0 5.6% Exports (Constant prices 1966/67) CFAF bil. 45.5 76.7 9.1% 67.5 6.8% Imports " " CFAF bil. 58.9 77.1 4.6% 78.0 4.8% Net Capital inflow /3 40.0 55.0 /4 50.0 /4 (public, long- $US term) /1 Preliminary mission estimates of the national accounts (See Vol. II for detailed description and calculation). /2 Country 1975/76 targets projected from mission estimates of GDP sources and uses in 1970/71. /3 Conversion to dollars at CFAF 255.8 = US$1. /4 Average aid requirement during 1970/71 - 1976/77. 62. The mission projects a resource gap of 3.5 percent of estimated GDP in 1976/77, compared with about 5.4 percent in 1970/71. 1/ The comparison of Plan and mission annual average growth rate projections for the main sectors is given below for the period 1970/71 to 1976/77: 1/ See Statistical Appendix, Table 2.1, and the discussion on page 11. The CFAF 13.4 billion gap in constant prices consists of a goods and services gap of CFAF 7 billion in constant import prices and a terms of trade effect of CFAF 6.4 billion which is expected to disappear in the period of the Plan. - 24 - Plan % Mission % Primary 4.1 2.1 of which: Traditional food (2.3) (3.7) Industrial and export crops (5.4) - Forestry (11.7) (5.0) Livestock (3.1) (3.1) Industry 12.5 4.0 Construction 6.7 6.7 Transport 8.5 8.5 63. The mission's projected growth rate implies a 4 percent growth rate in consumption compared with recent 8 percent rates. Investment by 1976/77 would amount to 13.5 percent of GDP which is slightly less than in recent years, but which is nevertheless consistent with the lower expected growth rate of investment. An average growth rate of some 4 percent under the conditions outlined above will require investments rising from about 37 million annually in the first year of the Plan, to some 42 billion in the last year. The projection assumes the growth will be lower than 4 percent at the start of the period and above this rate at the end. 64. Imports are projected to rise by slightly more than the GDP growth rate. Exports are estimated to rise by 6.8 percent annually in real terms with the principal increases in manufactured products; cocoa and coffee exports are expected to rise by some 2.5 percent annually, which is about 1/3 to 1/2 respectively of the rates projected in the Plan. The effect of the deceleration in export growth will be enhanced by the deterioration in the terms of trade. It is our view that the foreign resource gap after disappearance of the terms of trade impact would rise sharply over the level reached in 1970/71. With expected declines in cocoa and coffee prices and continued rises in import prices, the availability of foreign resources would become a critical factor in maintaining the growth momentum. The current account deficit would also grow in relation to GDP, as a large goods and services deficit is expected to be combined with outflow of factor payments. Some further drawdown of foreign assets may be warranted under the circumstances although increasingly new foreign financing, net of debt service, will be required. - 25 - IV. FINANCING PROSPECTS AND CREDITWORTHINESS A. Investment Levels 65. The Government announced its greatly expanded third five-year development Plan at a time when domestic demand and public resources generation showed the poorest prospects in years. The Plan calls for total investment of CFAF 280 billion after debt service of which slightly over half is to be public. The former federal and federated Governments would finance some 51 billion and the stabilization funds CFAF 7 billion (Statistical Appendix, Table 10.1). 66. Cameroonian authorities are aware of the need to limit capital spending in accordance with a system of priorities and in line with avail- able resources. Accordingly, the investment levels projected in the Plan are regarded as indicative. The mission regards a somewhat lower level of investment spending, about CFAF 200 billion (of which half public) as more in line with public resources likely to be available and the level of private investment likely to be reached. In the five years 1965/66 - 1969/70, the estimated level of investment was some CFAF 170 billion (in current prices). (Table 3). B. Domestic Contribution 67. The prospects for public savings are not bright given the decline in exports prices and the unlikelihood of a significant recovery during the Plan period. The rate of growth of public savings was impressive, as has been shown both in current budget surpluses and increases in the resources of the stabilization funds. Yet this year there is unlikely to be a suf- ficient current surplus to finance budgetary and extra budgetary commitments. A further decline would occur in the stabilization funds, based on payments to producers at the crop prices of late 1971. 68. Further, indirect and direct tax revenues are bound to be adversely affected by the decline in rural incomes and in the rate of growth of imports and domestic business activity, which will follow an expected reduction in rural demand. Accordingly, the near term prospects for public savings depend largely on measures which are taken to maintain domestic demand and improve revenue collection as well as to restrain current spending. 69. Direct personal and corporate income taxes have considerable potential for increases as analyzed in the last Bank report. Further, fiscal exemptions under the investment code could be reviewed and reduced in line with better international practice in this respect. Custom duty collection could be greatly improved. Measures are already underway for harmonizing the former East and West Cameroon revenue structures, which should raise substantial new revenues. The Plan proposes a 6 percent annual - 26 - rise in current outlays in real terms, including debt service, along with an assumed 15 percent rise in capital outlays. This degree of restraint on current spending has proved impossible in the past, given the necessity to increase recurrent outlays in relation to rising capital spending, the large annual increases in government personnel and other outlays, and the increasing charges for debt service which in Cameroonian accounting are included in current expenditures. As the background analysis of the plan indicates, a good deal of the past growth expenditures was for low priority purposes. The annual rate of increase of current expenditures for high priority economic and social purposes was only one half to two thirds of the rates programmed; total current spending in other items was increased even more than planned. This illustrates the need for a greater coordination between the planning and fiscal authorities with respect to the annual allocation of resources for current and capital spending. 70. Under the conditions of financial resource limitations facing Cameroon, a large measure of austerity in Government administration would seem in order. The Plan organization regards about two thirds of the federal budget as consisting of non-priority expenditures, where presumably most of the restraint in the growth of outlays can be effected. It is believed that total current spending (excluding debt service) with appropriate regard for priorities, can be kept to a 3 percent annual average rate in real terms (over 6 percent in current prices), and that revenue will increase in line with GDP growth. Further, a large part of the annual equipment budget is for purchases which are not of high development priority. The practice is to authorize 25 percent of estimated current receipts for this equipment budget. As suggested earlier it is doubtful whether public savings will be sufficient to finance these outlays (which amount to CFAF 10 billion in the 1972/73 budget). Accordingly it would appear desirable to.separate the equipment budget into development and non-development components in order to provide criteria for eventual pruning. 71. On the basis of a successful program to restrain non-development current expenditures and assuming fiscal reforms and improved collections, the following projection may be made of public savings availabilities during the five-year Plan period: - 27 - Budgetary surpluses under the present system CFAF 21 billion New revenues and improved collections 16 Sub total 37 Government debt service 17 Sub total 20 Surpluses of public enterprises and local authorities after debt service 16 Public savings available for capital investment 36 72. Use of the remaining stabilization funds for public investment spending is not included in these years. These estimates are necessarily inexact as they depend on many factors. The Government debt service estimate is higher than that used by the Plan and is based on the Mission's estimate of the terms and timing of new borrowing on conventional terms. Finally, little is known about the net savings capacity of public enter- prises and local authorities, the Plan estimate has been used in this table. A study is now underway in the Ministry of Finance on the financing of the main public enterprises. C. External Finance 73. In the five-year period 1965/69, disbursements of foreign aid amounted to an estimated total of CFAF 46 billion (US$167 million). The FAC provided 40 percent of this, and the FED 25 percent, as grants. Loans amounted to about 24 percent of the aid total, mainly from the Caisse Centrale, US AID, and the Kreditanstalt fur Wiederaufbau. Disbursements averaged about CFAF 9 billion annually (US$32.4 million). By 1970 the proportion of loans increased as that of grants declined. World Bank dis- bursements were very small during 1965/69. In 1970, disbursements amounted to CFAF 19 billion (US$69 million) from all sources, 30 percent of which was from France. French aid was concentrated in infrastructure (40 percent) and productive sectors (30 percent). The common market program was primarily in agriculture (50 percent) with a relatively small emphasis on infrasti;1:ture (20 percent). 74. Based on a 4 percent growth rate, the estimated public financial resource gap, is likely to be some CFAF 64 billion during the third Plan 1970/71 - 1975/76 and gross investment some CFAF 200 billion. As indicace-', of the CFAF 100 billion investment in the public sector (budget and public enterprises), some CFAF 36 billion (after some CFAF 17 billion of Government debt payments) would be financed with Cameroonian resources. This would leave some CFAF 64 billion, approximately CFAF 13 billion or US$50 million per year, to be provided in the form of foreign aid financing of public sector investment, a level which would seem realistic. - 28 - 75. On the basis of these estimates, Canercon would be financing with Dublic savings about one third of its public investment program, after debt service. If debt service is regarded as part of capital needs, Cameroon's contribution would be closer to 50 percent. The amount of foreign aid projected for the five-year Plan period is significantly larger than was disbursed in the 1965/69 period. Official external aid would finance about two third of total public investment (after debt service) in 1971/76 as against 55 percent in 1965/69. This is in line with the higher rate of disbursements in 1970 when the imnact of expanded aid programs began to be felt. In the light of the increasing commitment of most of the main aid agencies to Cameroon's development and the strong justification which exists for a larger share of foreign financing because of the decline in Cameroon exports, the amount of the external financing projected is regarded as reasonable. 76. There are no precise indications of what FED and FAC programs are likely to be, but they are not expected to vary substantially from current levels. Some 40 percent of the foreign aid total is exDected to be in the form of grants, with the balance being loans divided equally between the Covernment and public bodies guaranteed by the Government. In order for disbursements to reach the level projected commitments by air' agencies will have to rise sharply. In view of the uncertainties in the progran of some donors, so,e flexibility in amounts and terms will have to be shown on the part of major contributors if an adequate flow of foreil-n resources is tc be maintained. D. Creditworthiness 77. Cameroon's external debt has been rising rapidlv. In the past this rise waq mainly in the forM of long maturities and relatively low interest rates. Recently, there has also been a substantial rise in supplier credlits. For example, servicing for supplier credits are scheduled to rise from CFAP 800 million (US$2.9 million) in the 1970/71 federal budget to CFAF 1.5 billion (USS5.4 million) in the 1971/72 budget. (277.72 exchange rate) a situation we intend to fcllow closely. Assumine restraint is imposed on further increases in supplier credits and that new debt is on terms not more onerous than in the past, total nublic debt service by 1976/77 may be expected to rise to 6.5 percent of projected export earnings in that year. (Export projections are discussed in Chapter ITT (c)) This compares with a ratio of about 4.5 percent at present and 3 percent in 1970. 7R. Cameroon's debt service burden is moderate mostly because it has been able to maintain a resource surplus in recent years and to obtain the bulk of its external finance on concessional terms. In the years ahead Cameroon is likelv to have a widening resource deficit which together with a recent rise in debt servicing calls for caution in debt management. Al- lowing also for Cameroon's poverty level, the bulk of external finance should be on concessionary terms for a considerable period of time. STATISTICAL APPENDIX Table 1.1 - Population Characteristics (Regional, Urbanized, Density, Hospital Beds) 1.2 - Modern Sector Labor Force with Higher Qualifications in 1971 1.3 - Percentage of Non African Foreigners in Private Employment of Higher Qualifications 1.4 - Comparative Minimum Monthly Salary Scales by Sector and Category of Skills in 1969 2.1 - Expenditures on GDP, 1966/67 - 1970/71 3.1 - Balance of Payments 3.2 - Principal Exports, 1968/69 - 1970/71 3.3 - Imports 1965/66 - 1969/70 4.1 - External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1971 4.2 - External Public Debt as of December 31, 1971 5.1 - Customs Receipts 5.2 - Balance Sheet of the Treasury, June 1965 - June 1971 7.1 - Production of Principal Crops 10.1 - Third Plan Financing ANNEX I Investment and the Second Plan Table 1 - The Equipment Budget and the Second Plan Table 2 - Total Investments (Public and Private) for the first Four Years of the Second Plan Statistical Appendix Tble 11 PCiULATION CHANACTERISTICS (RIGT0AL, URBANIZED, DEi1TY, HOSPITAL BEDS), 1970 Population Pe7cent of Population Hospital Population Region" in 1970 population per km2 bedsin pcr hofpital (in '000) ursnized 1971 bed E:mt Cnr:croot North 1,58o 10 9.6 2,058 767 Center South'/ 1,130 22 9.2 3,863 292 East 280 11 2.6 80 331 Littoral2 65o 68 32.1 2,358 275 West 1,000 20 71.9 3,469 288 \est Co :oce 1,200 16 28.3 2,2L1 535 TOTAL ,80 22 12.5 1,AG 393 1/ Contains the city of Yound&. 2/ Contains the city of Douala. Source: Third Five Year Plan Statistical Appendix Table 1.2: M40DE7RN SECTOR LIBOR FORCE WITH HIGIHR QUTALIFICATIONS IN 1971 Categories Priv.te Public Total Percentage of Careroorians Sector Service in private sector ernploye-it. Skillcd ard highly skilld 19,110 16,300 35,410 9h.0 Technicians h,873 2,326 2,199 65.2 Senior Technicians 1,8h3 ) 26.1h )2,410 5,149. Management 896 )1.5 TOTAL 26,722 21036 h7,758 81- Source: Third live Year Plan Statistical Appendix T- -c 1.3: PERCENTAGE OF N0N1 AFRICAN FOREIGNER3 IN PRIVATE EM4PLOYlýENT OF IIGHER QUALIFICATIONS, 1970 Mianagem3nt Senior leve. Technicians Skilled and Tecbnicians highly skilled a s .3 s a s a s Primary 9h.1 90.2 30.0 86.8 9.8 36.3 1.5 1.0 Secondary 87.9 90.6 78.3 85.3 33.2 15.1 2.7 9.3 Tertiary 75.6 80.1 61.1 62.9 23.7 26.3 2.5 1.3 TOTAL 82.1 85.8 65.8 76.1 26.6 34.9 2.5 5.9 a) Administrative personnel s) Technicil personnel Source: Third Five Year Plan ntatisticai Appendix Table 1.4: CMTTIVE Dm 7 IoNTHLY SALARY SCAIES BY SEOTOR A1D CATEGoRY OF SKILLS M1 1969 i-'D2 ~?rirn~-- E<-½r S~,V,~rvand Tert~ySetr Crdirtry end 1590 - 33390 M900 - 16000 o o - 13560 hOOO - 10850 6760 - 21200 $h60 - 17123 L333 - 13589 seri skilled Skiled md 28620 - 5183 16oo - 30000 13560 - 25025 10850 - 20340 2120C - 33000 17123 - 30692 13589 - 21358 highly skilled Technicians h2294 - 108915 30000 - 62500 25425 - 52965 20340 - 12375 38000 - 70000 30692 - 56539 24358 - Lh870 Senior Te nicians 59625 - 50255 62500 - 8500o 52965 - 85000 42375 - 85000 70CCO -100000 56539 -100000 1h870 -100000 fonegernent 59625 - 150255 85=oo -180000 850o -180000 85000 -18o00 1o0o0o -195000 100000 -195000 10o00c -195000 73935 - 177285 Zone i - Bua, Douala, Edn, Yaound6. Zcne II - Bafia, Ebolo, E Kribi, Kumba, Malmayo, äkongsamba, Sangmelina, Tiko, Victoria. Zone III - Rest of the country. Source: ministry of Plan and Regional Developrent, Study of wages and salaries. Statistical Appendix Table 2.1: IPLNDITURES ON GDP, 1966/67 - 1970/71 (in billions 1966/67 CFA francs) 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 Consumption 164.5 186.5 . 197.3 215.2 226.4 public .30.9 34.3 37.1 4O.0 44.6 private 133.1 152.2 160.2 175.2 181.8 Investment 31.7 34.5 30.9 35.1 36.4 machinery & equipment 12.7 15.5 11.3 14.9 15.3 construction 19.0 19.0 19.6 20.2 21.1 Deficit on goods and services -1.5 -3.7 +2.h +.7 -7.0 Gross domestic income 194.2 217.3 230.6 255.0 255.8 (-means) Change in terms of trade(gain) - -6.1 -8.2 -11.9 -6.h GDP, market prices 194.2 211.2 222.h 243.1 249.4 anrqual growth rate 8.8% 5.3% 9.3% 2.6% Gross domcatic savings 30.2 2h.7 25.1 27.9 23.0 as A of GDP 15.6 11.7 11.2 11.5 9.2 Gross domestic investments as V of GDP 19.3 16.3 13.9 1h.4 Th.5 Iport unit price index 100.0 99.1 101.7 112.0 118.6 Export unit price index 100.0 11h.6 121.2 140.4 135.4 Terms of trade index 100.0 115.6 119.2 125.4 11.;.2 Note: Exporto in the deficit on goods and services have been deflated by the 1"rn. pri(e index in order to show them in constant purchasing power units. Source: 1BD mission estimates (see Vol. II). Statistical Appendix Table 3.1: BALANCE OF PAYKENTS (in billions of CFA francs) 1968 1969 170 Exports L6.0 50.6 60.7 Imports ". L6.2 Trade Balance +7.2 +4.+ Freight / Insurance -6.6 -h.9 -11.0 Travel -i.1 -2.7 -0.1 Factor income -1.7 -3.3 -3.1 Other services -3.2 -3.6 -.1 Current account balance -P.* -10.1 -13. Official transfers +.) .3.2 .5.1 Capital transactions - official (including debt repayment) +1.2 *5.2 *L.? - private (including debt repayment) 1.2 .1.0 .6 Others (short term) errors and omissions -o. +0.1 41.2 (Change in foreign assets) 1/ (-2.9) (-2.6) (-7.3 -ource: Direction des Contr6les Economiques. 1/ (-) = decrease. Statistical Appendix agble 3:2. FRINCIPAL EXIORTS, 1968/69 - 1970/71 (Q: in millions of tons) (V: in billions of CFA francs) Pr tcha- ge over pre- 1968/69 vious yoar 1969/70 Percent change 1970/71 Percent change Q v Q v Q 7 Cocoa beans 64.9 12.3 26% 77.1 18.5 50% 78 5 11.2 -23D Cocoa butter 8.5 3.3 50% 10.å 4.7 42% 7.7 2.4 Arabica coffee 19.3 3.8 -12% 23.7 5.5 1% 18.3 5.3 -h Pobusta coffee 48.9 7.6 2% 50.1 9.3 22% 4l.2 9.5 2Y Bananas, freSh hLi.0 0.6 - 419.5 2.0 300% 50.2 1.6 -12 Rubber 10.3 1.0 21% 11.5 1.3 30% 23.8 1.5 150 Logs 350.3 3.5 25% 406.9 4.3 23% 424.1 4.2 -2% Cotton 24.1 2.9 43% 19.7 2.6 -11$ 30.5 4.2 62p Aluiniur. 36.9 5.1 7% 38.4 . 6% 37.0 . -h sub total above 40.1 53.4 L tot,- 9xrzorts 776.3 50.6 18.5% 853. 4 66.4 +31% 877.8 61.7 -75 Source: fficial Trade 'tatistics. Statistical Appendix Table 3-3: mDRTS 1965/66 - 1969/70 (in rillions or C.F.A. francs) U3E. G UF3 1965-1966 1966-1967 % 1967-1968 % 1968-1969 1969-1970 Fcodstuffs, drinks, tob~acco ,77L. 12.7 4,h02 11.7 4,880 10.2 5,507 11.2 5,771 9.5 Po:7er, 1ubrie 1,570 h.2 ,616 4.6 2,505 5.1 2,761 2.6 2,761 4.6 Unprecesd products - c2 vegetable or ania.l1 352 0.9 392 1.0 822 1.7 1,037 2.2 1,231 2.0 - of r:iineral origin 1,506 4.0 881 2.3 1,654 3.5 1,387 2.8 1,759 2.9 S=9i-finished goods h,607 12.3 6,259 16.6 6,234 13.0 5,987 12.8 7,00, n1.4 - tr-nEnrt and traction eq-uiLent 3,31 8.9 3,093 8.2 5,172 10.9 5,278 10.8 6,505 10.7 - for Agriculture 227 0.6 196 0.5 309 - 322 0.7 332 0.5 - for Inaustry 5,278 14.0 4,785 12.7 5,669 11.9 5,077 10.3 9,437 15.6 Finis'rcd consumption goods - of households 6,797 18.1 6,101 1.6.2 7,697 16.1 8,508 17.4 9,423 15.5 - of enterprises 9,106 24.3 9,955 26.4 13,090 27.5 13,408 27.3 16,641 27.3 37,566 100.0 37,680 100.0 47,738 100.0 49,272 100.0 60,860 100.0 Source: Cameroon, 1971/72 Budget (Estimates) Statistical Appendix Tble hel: EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEET OUTSTANDE,! AS OF DECEBER 31, 1971 DEBT REPAYATELE D FOREIG. CU?RRNCY (in thousands of U.S. Dollars) Creditor CCunt.ry Disbursed Undis- ,oa Type of Citor buroed Canada 1,957 - 1,957 Fn!77 - b77 Cerony (Fkd. Rep. cf) h,351 - L,351 Supplier 6785 - 6,785 France 55 - 55 ublicly isued bonds 55 - 55 Italy 285 136 421 Otber Privnte. Financinl Inst. 283 136 b21 ropen P.?v. Fund - 5,000 5,ooo European Invest. Bank 12,930 2,3i7 15,277 IBRD 7,740 29,360 37,100 IDA 10,965 19,035 30,000 Lo-nr from Int. Oranizations 31,635 55,72 87,37 France 62,863 19,992 82,855 Germany (Fecdt Rep. of,) 11,819 2,2l 111,090 Ita:ly 3,859 - 3,859 United Kingdom h,063 - h,063 USA 20,001 .5,906 25,907 USSR 2,hh5 2,239 .oans_frolo"ernents 10ý50 30,378 13 J58 ToFAL ETInAL fJBLIC DEBT lh3,8>0 86,256 230jc6 ote: Debt ith a maturity of over one year. Statistical Appendix Table L.2: FüWRNAL FUELIC DET AS OF DE=E E 31, 1971 DEET P RAABLE IN FOREIGN CUPRE'CY (in thousands of U.S. Dollars) Debu Cutsadn Cancel- beginning_of Perod Tranwscticns curLng Period Service lations, Divu,ur e d ICluding Commit- Dis r -- Fy.entss Year only Undibr::ed %ents s2mmnts Principal Lnterest Total ents 1969 P6,969 1LO.554 47,771 17,238 3,310 1I,211 7,521 -9,559 1970 93,611, 183,1]6 10,107 25,918 4,487 h,62h 9,111 -786 :971 111,697 213,220 7,962 27,837 6,519 5,77 12,293 10,33 1972 143,MhO. 230,096 - 25,193 8,300 3,953 12,253 -8,521 1973 157,559 213,275 - 11,671 9,11 1,720 13,8613 - 1977) 163,026 20,130 - 11,335 9,504 5,170 l,671 - 1975 16,917 191-,626 - 8,969 10,140 5,187 15,327 - 1976 163,7146 1Eh,t26 - 6,985 9,366 5,026 14,392 - 1977 161,365 175,120 - 6,788 9,801 4,960 114,762 - 1978 15E,352 165,31 - 3,561 9,730 14,929 l,659 - 1979 152,1?3 157,589 - 3,260 9,250 l62 13,901 - 1920 16,193 1l6,339 123 9,032 b,328 23,361 - 1981 137,2314 137,307 22 8,924 3,995 12,919 - 1982 128,370 123,371- 1 7,447 3,670 11,117 - 1983 120,923 120,2923 - 6,610 3, 409 10,019 - 198 L 1116.312 11i,312 - 6,158 3,189 9,3L6 - 1985 10,153 108,153 - 5,814 2,978 8,792 - 1986 102,339 102,339 - 5,905 2,769 8,674 - Note: Includes service on all debt listed in T.ble 4.1 prepared April 13, 1972, vith the exception of the following for which repaym nt ter-s are not available: Loans from European Investment Bank $ 3,084 Loans from Governments - France 5,h37 TOAL $ 5,2 Statistical Appendix Table 5.1: CUSTOMS RECEIPTS, 1964/65 - 1969/70 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 VALUE: (million CFAF) Import Duties and Taxes 10,816 12,787 15,219 17,088 17,740 20,214 Export Duties and Taxes 3,208 3,208 3,087 2,884 3,232 4,828 Other Customs Duties and Taxes 1,500 1,763 2,228 2,743 3,373 4,481 TOTAL RECEIPTS 15,52L 17,618 20,534 22,715 24,345 29,523 STRUCTURE Import Duties and Taxes 69.7 72,6. 7h.1 75.2 72.9 68.5 Export Duties and Taxes 20.7 17.4 15.0 12.7 13.3 16.3 Other Customs Duties and Taxes 9.6 10.0 10.9 12.1 13.8. 15.2 TOTAL RECEIPTS 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (in %) InDort Duties and Taxes 11.2 18.2 19.0 12.3 3.8 13.9 Export Duties and Taxes -2.3 -4.h 0.6 -6.6 12.1 49.4 Other Customs Duties and Taxes 22.1 17.5 26.4 23.1 23.0 32.8 TOTAL RECEIPTS 9.0 13.5 16.6 10.6 7.2 21.2 Import Duties and Taxes: Customs duties on imports, imports duties, turnover tax on imports, supplementary tax (road fund). Export Duties and Taxes: Export duties (export tax, and live wild animal tax) produce inspection tax, sealing tax, timber inspection and secondary forest produce tax. Others: Business transaction tax (up to 1965/66) inland taxes, UDEAC single tax, veterinary inspection tax, SIC and SOCACAO dues, warehouse charges, meat transportation tax, fines and confiscations. NOTE: Figures do not conform exactly to the receipts on cash basis used in text table 4. Source: Third-Five Year ?'Lan. Book 4 Public Finance. Statistical Appendix TAble .?: .RAIANCE SHET OF TIE TRFASURY (PROVISIONAL) June 1965 - June 1971 (in billions ot CFAF) June 30, 1Q65 June 30, 1966 June 30, 1967 June 33, 1968 June 30, 1969 Jine 30, 1970 June 30, 1971 9/ CR D CR D CR D CR D CR 0 CR D CH D A. Car ying Out of the loi de Finance I. Federal Governnent Oerations 1. Bu,et 7.0 0.5 7.3 2.5 0.2 3.2 5.4 1/ 4.3 7.5 2/ 0.7 3.4 3.8 2. Special Funds Commercial Accounts (2.7) (3.1) (1.8) (1.2) (0.9) (2.1) Erpenditure on Special Resources (0.7) (0.7) (0.4) (0.6) (0.2) (0.3) Balance 3.4 3.8 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 2.1 3. Loans & Borrc.inc Accounts 1.0 2.3 Balance Federal Government 3.1 0.1 2.8 - h.3 8.2 T. Federate States Operations 1. East Cameroon Budgetary Operations (NA) (IA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (3.2) (.6) (8.6) Non-budgetary Operations (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (0.1) (0.1) nalance 0.0 -- o.6 0.5 4.5 3/ 4.6 2/ 3.3 2.1 2. West Cameroon 4/ Budgetary Operations (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (1.2) (1.3) Non-budgetary Operations (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (0.6) (1.0) Balance 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.2 Balance Federal States 0.0 0.4 09 4.2 2.7 1.9 Balance of Operations _. 0.2 6.7 0 10.1 B. Liquid Assets I. Correspondents 1. Financial Services Public I.stitutions / 1.3) (1.) (2.7) (3.2) (7.7) (15.5) (12.(7/) Nanicipalitles 06050:3116j Supplementary Budgets 6 Balance 2.3 2.2 3.6 4.1 10.1 18.6 15.z 2. Other Corresponlents 4tiers) lurrent Accoun I)epos,ts (1.3) (1.5) (1.0) (2.2) (3.0) (0.3) (0.3) Miscellaneans Deposits (2.3) (3.6) (3.2) (6.4) (4.5) (7.5) (3.2) (including payment. of loans & consignment) Balance 3.6 5.1 4.2 8.6 7.5 7.8 3.5 Balance Correspondents 5 7 7.8 12.7 17.6 26.4 18.9 f. Cash and Portfolio 1. Money and Quasi Money Cash Holdings 15 (.6(1.3) (1.2) (1..) Bank Assets in Current Acet. 1.3 2.0 (3.0) 2.6 (3.h) (1.9) (1.5) 2. Financial Invesunent 6/ (7.4) (6.8) (3.5) (3.9) (6.) (14.3) (12.0) 3. Other Moverents of Pnds (1.2) (2.5) (0.5) (3.0) (1.5) (2.0) (6.1)8/ Balance Cash & Portfolio 9.0 10.4 7.6 6.0 10.0 19.6 8.8 - Balance of Financi 20 6.7 7.6 7.0 10.1 IA: Not available. :R: Credit. : Ibit. I Of which previous fiscal years 2.5. / Of wlich previous fiscal years 5.0. / Coming mor't1y from Drevious fis al years. I The Wes* Cameroon P-;get. was integrated to the Federal Treasury from the year 1966/1967. SMostly Cais3es de SlAbilination des prix. / Essentially fi:ancial investment in the French Treasury. / Prore 4ra,s'er fro t,.* (alsa- de Stahiliatlon to Special Funds. I Essentially comptes d'attente. / Preliminary. Source: Treasury. Statistical Appendix Table 7.1: PRODUCTION OF PRINCIPAL CROPS, 1969/70 - 1970/71 (in metric tons) Percent Crops 1969/70 1970/71 Change Cocoa 120,17 122,526 +2.0 Arabico 23,628 27,544 +16.0 Robusta 58,287 53,927 - 7.5 Tea 1,029 1,165 +12.6 Bananas 70,h7 69,335 - 1.6 Cottonseed 91,334 38,350 -58.o Rubber 12,011 13,552 +12.8 Tobacco 3,527 .,34 +22.0 Palm nuts 44,800 41,35o - 7.7 Wood (m3) 730,000 828,171 +13.4 Peanuts 55,959 33,960 -39.3 Source: Part 1 draft 1972/73 Budget Federal Republic of Cameroon. StatiGtical Appendix Toble 10.1: TIRD PLAN FINAMICING (CYAF france millions in 197Ö/71 prices) PJBLIC FUINANCI 7d Public Private a8eeT0 1 itINA!I111M OUT aF oWN 7NDS FINANCN OU OF 0 OREICI M Financing Financing Pinancing Public !ulic Totel Total Total S',te ^nd Stnbiliza. TdiTAL Subsidies State Fdies Council Furd Self to the State Ioans I-.reign TOTAL Fina.inr L I - PrJA EC0'oMY Agric,lture 2,961 2,100 1,840 6,901 4~,64 3,950 - 8,814 15,715 1,800 17,515 stockfring 630 - - 630 1,220 - - 1,220 1,850 100 1,90 Forest, 943 - - 943 137 - - 137 3,080 3,500 4,50 unting and 4tldlife 200 - - 200 30n - - 300 500 - 500 Fshin, ad PIC. Breeding 166 - - 166 34 - - 34 200 800 1,000 RPIRAL ECTim T=TAL 4,900 2,100 1,840 8,840 6,555 3,950 - 10,505 19,345 6,200 25,545 11 - ITS~fY - MIJIHI - PCER Inu,-ry - '.increl prospection 500 - - 500 - - 2,160 2,160 2,660 53,760 56,420 pow f er e 700 - 2,700 3,400 180 - 7,800 7,980 11,380 2,500 13,880 1IIUITn - KININ1 - PCWER TOTAL 1,200 - 2,700 3,900 180 - 9,960 10,140 14,oo 56,260 70,300 .II -MC.EnE - PRIVAT TAISPORT SEMVICE 100 1,300 - 1,i00 - - - - 1,400 41,00 42,00 iV - 'OUISM 1,000 - - 1,000 - - - - 1,000 6,200 7,200 V - INFFA3"7UCTURE2 P-tå 1,000 500 1,800 3,300 1,000 2,000 - 3,000 6,300 220 6,500 RC11s and Sridg3e5 8,350 2,000 1,000 11,350 5,500 7,550 - 13,050 24,400 1,500 25,900 Rail1ys 300 - 3,400 3,700 2,500 - 8,900 1.,400 15,100 - 15,100 Civil Aviatlon - Meteorolog 900 - 400 1,300 1,700 500 - 2,200 3,500 - 3,500 Telezr.nunteations and Postal Services 2,700 - - 2,700 - 3,600 - 3,600 6,300 - 6,300 INFRASTRUCTURE 1TAL 13,250 2,500 6,600 22,350 10,700 13,650 8,000 33,250 55,600 1,700 57,300 VI - ELUCAVION 9,750 200 - 9,950 5,635 3,450 - 9,085 19,035 2,600 21,635 VII - YMUTH AND SPORS 1,500 - - 1,500 - - - - 1,500 - 1,500 ViIt - EALT7! 3,750 200 - 3,950 1,600 - - 1,600 5,550 1,200 6,750 rX - ty:: lrnT, 1,500 - 4,500 6,000 3,400 3,000 1,000 5,400 11,400 - 11,00 X - R2AL MCDI D A20 VILLAGE WATER SUPPLY 1,500 - - 1,500 - - - - 1,500 - 1,500 Xf - VO:E1 HO0I - - - - - - - - - 16,800 16,800 XIU - 880 - - 840 420 - - 420 1,300 - 1,300 X,Ii - AFcISTPrVE EQUIPMENT 4,300 700 - 5,000 - - - - 5,000 -5,000 ZIV - 0"=R EQUPN2X1' 1,800 - - 1,800 - - - - 1,800 - 1,800 XV - 07'7R AlHRITIES -- - - - - - - 3,500 3,500 XVI - S2ES A1D REEARC 2,500 - - 2,500 500 - - 500 3,000 - 3,000 X IIIWJ - IACIAL PA.TICIPATIONS 3,070 - - 3,070 - - - - 3,070 - 3,070 GMRITm TOTAL 51,000 7,000 15,640 73,640 26,990 24,050 14,86o 70,900 144,50 135,46 280,000 Source: 1ird-Fiie Year Plan. ANNEX I Page 1 Investment and the 2nd Plan 1. An analysis of the first four years of the second Plan, 1964/65 - 1968/69, reveals that private enterprise investment rose by 14 percent annually, and public investment by 6.9 percent with a drop evident in the fourth year. Enterprises account normally for half of gross investments, government for about 30 percent, and households the rest 1/. Available information does not permit a sectorial examination of public investment for the last Plan period. However, the breakdown of equipment budget credits made available on a budgetary basis for the five years 1966/67 - 1970/71 are available. Those are compared with the provisions of the second five-year Plan in Table 1. 2. In general, 75 percent of Plan provisions were covered by investment budget allocations (excluding government administrative buildings) with better than average rates for transport infrastructure, urban development and education. Government administrative building greatly exceeded Plan provisions, despite the objective to limit allocations for this purpose. Unmet needs in this respect are reported to be large. Some CFAF 2 billion in unspent equipment credits are estimated to be carried over to the new Plan period. 3. In Table 2, total estimated investments realized in the first four years of the Plan are compared with provisions of the Plan. In addition to administrative construction only industrial investment at 78 percent of Plan provisions greatly exceeded the 59 percent average which realized investments reached as a proportion of total Plan pro- visions. 1 Rapport sur l'Ex6cution du Deuxi6me Plan, Quatrieme Ann6e, Direction de la Planification, July 1971. ANNEX T Page 2 Table 1: THE EQUIPMENT BGifET AD THE SECONDJ FLAN, 1,"64/65 - (in billions of CFAF) Budgetary and Credits as a Second Plan extrabudgetary percentage of Sectors Provisions % Credits % Plan provisions Studies 0.7 3.3 0.8 4.0 111 Rural sector 4.3 19.5 2.4 12.3 57 Mining, manufacturing and power o.8 3.6 0.3 1.4 35 Infrastructure, transport and communications 8.0 36.7 7.0 33.7 87 Urban public works and housing 1.0 4.8 1.0 5.2 97 Education 2.4 11.2 2.0 10.3 83 Public health 1.2 5.5 0.4 2.1 35 Commerce, tourism and information 0.5 2.1 0.2 1.0 60 Administrative cquipment 2.9 13.3 $.5 28.0 190 21.8 100.0 19.6 100.0 90 Extra budgetary equipment credits outside the plan 3.2 Source: Rapport sur 1'Execution du TIe Plan Quatribme Ann6e. Direction de la Planification, Juillet 1971. APNEX I Page 3 Table 2: TOTAL INVESTMENTS (PUBLIC AND PRIVATE) FOR THE FIRST FOUR YEARS OF THE SECOND PLAN, 1964/65 -1969/70 (CFAF millions) Percentage of Plan Outcome A years Plan realized Sectors rovisions 1964/65-1969/70 in four years General Studies 2,283 1,239 5L.3 Rural 32,3L 11,953 37.0 Industry and Kining 39,014 30,822 7P.2 Commerce and Tourism 3,666 1,939 52.9 Transport and Communications 4l,769 23,528 55.7 Education and Training 10,392 5,235 50.b Health, Social affairs ,050 2,599 64.2 Urbanism and Housing 11,578 5,0b3 h7.1 Administrative equipment and information 3,500 5,182 107.1 1L8,996 1/879o5. 1/ Excluding CFAF 16,180 for automibile transport. Source: Rapport sur l'ex6cution du ITe Plan QuatriAme Ann6e, Direction de la Planification, Juillet 1971.
Группа Всемирного банка · Pre-2003 Economic or Sector Report
Cameroon - The recent economic development of Cameroon (Vol. 1 of 2) : Volume I : the main report
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