Guatemala - Memorandum on recent economic developments and prospects

RESTRICTED COPY~1 ~Report No. CA -15 Iuds repurt is for offiias use onuy by mhe Bank Goup and specuicany autnorized organizations or persons. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accent responsibility for the accuracy or cmnleteness of the renort, INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS OF GUATEMALA O V 1 I% 1 1 er oveerir aC, a n r Central America'and Caribbean Department cUR~aCY EQUIrTVALTSM( 1 Quetzal (Q) = 1 U.S. Uollar FISCAL YEAR January i to December 31 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. Basic Data i-iii Introduction and Summary. .......... . . . . . . . 1 Recent Economic Growth and Prospects . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Public Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . * . . . . 4 Public Investment .. . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Financing Public Investment .... . . . . . . 8 Development Institutions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Money and Credit. . ............ . . . . . . 11 Balance of Payments . .......... . . . . . . 12 Statistical Appendix I. Population TT. ATo -1a Amtsn+ nAduno+ III. Public Finances .4.V . .L..a1%, LJJ y. ,-1tLl V. External Public Debt Mr. . An.eBo and Crss D - i onA Se r 1Ii l Report isbasdL on± the1 LLnu'-Ln1gs 01 e. 1ILL6-Ll UU 7ZVUUa1TiraLa U Mr. Euric A. Bobb, and Miss Donna-Marie Dowsett in August-September 1971.  GUATEMAA BASIC 4ATA I. SIZE Area (square kilometers) 108,900 1960 1965 1969 1970 Population (millions) 3.82 4.5o 5.09 5.26 Annual growth rate (%) - - - - 3.1 - - - - - 3.3 GNP (current market prices) per capita (US$) 264 288 329 352 II. ECONOMIC INDICATORS GDP at constant market prices (millions of 1958 quetzales) 1,049.2 1,355.2 1,684.2 1,778.2 Sector origin (%) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Agriculture . TE7 27.1 T5. Manufacturing 13.1 14.1 16.2 16.6 Construction 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.6 Commerce 26.0 27.8 28.4 28.6 Other 29.0 27.6 26.6 26.6 Annual Chanaes (%) 1961-66 1969 1970 GDP at current market prices 5.2 10.9 10.7 GDP at constant market prices 5.2 7.0 5.6 Manufacturing value addedlron.nricAs) 8.0 9.2 8.) Agriculture value added (con. prices) 3.9 5.8 3.8 ERnorts. fn.-h. 9.1 12.) - 1-.6 Imports, c.i.f. 9.9 1.2 11.3 Tot,l bnkin system crerit 8A 6 9-1 to public sector (4.o) (5.5) (-6.4) to orivate sector (9.7) (7.2) ( 2.9) Consumer prices 0.5 3.0 3.5 1960 1965 1969 1970 GDP at current market prices (millions of auetzales) 1OLh 1.331 1,703 1,886 o GDP at current market prices: Gross fixed investment 9.8 13.0 1)1- 1 9 Public sector (2.6) (3.1) (2.9) (2.6) Private sector (7-2) (9.9) (l I (11 3 Inventory investment 0.5 0.5 -0.3 1.4 Gross domestic savings 8.h 11.9 l . I 1 Public sector (2.0) (2.2) (1.6) (1.3) Privnte sectnr (A-),) (-n) (12 7) (1), 8) Resource gap 1.9 2.3 -0.3 -0.8 - 1i - 1960 1965 1969 1970 Contral Gcwernm-n. in.in co (in millions of Quetzales) Current revenue 87.3 118.8 19.7 165.2 ft ornn-P a+ cunt marke+ pr; o ceA -If 1 fRA AA Current exponditure 7.5 96.8 129.3 1L7.8 f L DP an t curr.ent4 rna 1 -m 1m e /7 11 t'7 ')1 (7 A) (7 P) L'o U]. UL1 Id ulicil, Ik LIO . L) 1 e *C.k I*/ \fIU/ Current surplus 12.8 22.0 20.1 17. 111VUst:LU'-bi'i -A1Util L1t C-U*LU Ui-*U * Jz* * Surplus/Deficit -13.3 -12.8 -9.6 -16.8 INGL eXL. la I inal[ullig it*U £4.) LLt. L U). U Net domestic financing -3.6 8.3 -4.6 -1.8 Balance of Payments (in millions of US$) Exports of goods and non-factor services 132 22.6 303 351 Imports of goods and non-factor services 152 257 299 335 Resource gap - 20. -31 I 16 Factor income, net -10 -12 -31 -33 Current account deficit 30 h3 27 17 Transfers, net 15 8 lh 18 Private capital, net 19 25 16 13 Official capital, net 3 7 7 16 Reserve changes, net -6 3 -10 -29 Concentration of Commodity Exports ( of exports, f.o.b.) Coffee 65 49 32 33 Cotton 5 18 15 9 External Public Debt Medium and long-term outstanding as reported to IBRD (including undisbursed, repayable in local and foreign currency, in millions of US$) 51 / 71 V 208 27 Debt service ratio (' of foreign exchange earnings) 3.1bJ <-1 7.7 8.7 system (US0 millions) 8 L8 47 76 IBRD loans as of September 30, 1971 US$50.5 m of which outstanding: US$32.1 m DIF data aq of June 10. 1Q71)(Tjt millions) Quota 36.0 Fiinri holdings of Onit.7ales 10 Stand-by arrangement 1L.0 Al1ocation, of SDR, 1070 1971 3.9 ti U6LIJ1re ya eL L .UL6 j S/ 1961. - ii1 - III. SOCIAL AND RELATED INDICATORS 1960 1965 1969 1970 Birth rate (per 1,000 population) 47.7 46.1 Death rate (per 1,000 population) 17.5 17.2 Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 91.8 92.6 Life expectancy (years) L9 Literacy rate (% of adult population) 38 School enrollment (% of school age population) J/ 30 33 Urban (76) (74) (78) Rural (22) (25) (30) Primary school retention ratio W 17 19 Publib expenditure on social sectors as% of GDP at current market pricess/ - 3.6 3.6 3.4 Population Der hospital bed hb6 h1h )22 Doctors per 10,000 population 2.4 Distribution of farm land % owned by top tenth 81.4 ExDenditure on defense % of Central Government budget 9.3 15.6 15.3 20.5 % of GDP 0.9 1.5 1.h 2.0 c/ Total refers to primary and secondary school, but the urban/rural breakdown r(fRrs only to primary schools. d The reference year is the year of graduation of the cohort. m/ Cntra Anvrnmpn+. only-  GUATEMALA LEMORANDUM ON RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS Introduction and Summary 1. This memorandum covers economic developments in Guatemala since the last economic report (CA-3a, December 17, 1970), which was based on the findings of a mission in April 1970. The report identified the following as key constraints to economic development in Guatemala: the limited size of the domestic market; a vulnerable external sector, heavily dependent on coffee and cotton exports; and a low investment ratio resulting from polit- ical uncertainty and the lack of a dynamic public sector revenue and invest- ment effort. The report indicated that a new Government, which had taken office in July 1970. was attemotine to cone with some of the basic nrohlems of the economy and of the public sector in particular. The Government en- dorsed a Devplonment Plan (1971-75) prenared by the outgoine administration, the general objectives of which were consistent with those considered to be of imnortanrp hv the Inst prononmic renort 2.The new Government'sq T-iir acconmplishmepnt- rhiringy tHep laqt year has been in the area of institution-building. In contrast to the past, when imnortant reform nrnornms were freoipntly dplnvad at the laoflcntite ctony the new Government has moved quickly and effectively to secure approval for and to carry out a number of someti-q l4ffinit1t nAlminictrnrtrp nnA inctu- tional changes which are necessary for the execution of the investment pro- gram In nrticu, r i t hnc vanronni 7 "A i t-c nvii-iirI t-,rn I nea icn orrA to implement a rural development program, which is directed towards the Small&. higlk6andxLt ALA aLCgriculAtua, deveopmet~.i bSca a..d an. agricul- tural commodity price stabilization agency have also been established, and J.a. Lu yearst Oa 1C LtacS 0U a weL con0ceiveu investment FLU6Lnut and inadequate project preparation have been major obstacles to development. iL Lif C LL l d U LLIC ubW Uic nLUL UseCVtUv lli L instiLULLUs cULLLLUe to make progress in identifying, preparing and carrying out projects, the overnment will have lau A v aT -u 1,S __ aL '..enceosary CAanson -1 -Uvi1- and private investment. At that point, the major constraint in the public sectoL Is 4LNCJ i L-U v ts a --ASl IUoCn. LULIUW LL ALC lZLLZ CCADC i ta ratO in 1967-69, Central Government revenue in 1970 recorded a satisfactory 10 percunt increase, largely uue tu hiniker revenues LLUU U lsdUre sI Liln te Lsae tax and import duties, and also from the effect of higher coffee prices upon the cotee export tax. Ie mission's proJections iuicate Luat siuilar rev- enue growth in 1971-72 will generate a current surplus sufficient to finance a bstantial .9ar at Lte Central GovernmIents i nvestment program. nowever, a small financing gap is likely to appear in 1973 and increase in succeeding years, unless addiLional sources of revenue can be developed in time. ine Government is aware of the situation and is planning a number of administra- Live improvements in the tax system. However, It is LiKely that these im- provements will not yield tht- reqiired additional revenues, so that the Gov- ernment will bo raced with the problem of decicing whether to alter the basic structure of its tax system or to reduce its investment program. Clearly, a decision to postpoRe essential public investments would be detrimental to the economic prospects of Guatemala. -2- 4. In sum, achievements so far are encouraging and the authorities do not face major immediate decisions in the fiscal field, although such deci- sions will probably be required in the coming year or in early 197/3. However, large social problems remain and probably help to explain present social unrest. Extremely low educational and health standards, concentration of land ownership, uneven distribution of economic benefits - with half the total population still outside the modern market economy - and a high level of unemployment and underemployment are basic obstacles to economic devel- opment. The crisis in the Central American Common Market (CACM) and uncer- tainties surrounding a possible solution could keep private industrial in- vestment at a low level and remain a crucial factor for the future of the manufacturing sector in Guatemala. Recent Economic Growth and Prospects 5. During 1968-70, real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 6 per- cent, or at a substantially faster rate than in the first seven years of the decade (Table 1). As in the past, economic growth has varied with the trend of merchandise exports, which rezovered at about 15 percent annually from their depressed 1967 level. As a result, exports of goods and non-factor services rose from 16 percent of GDP in 1967 to 18.6 percent of GDP in 1970. On the supply side, the most dynamic sector was manufacturing, where real value added increased at an annual rate of 9 percent. Helped by the large 14 percent yearly increase in livestock production, a growing part of which has been channelled into exports, total agricultural output continued to grow at an annual rate of 5 percent compared to 4 percent in the period 1960-67, but was held back by the slow increase in the production of tradi- tional crops, especially coffee and corn. TABLE 1: SELECTED NATIONAL ACCOUNTS INDICATORS, 1961-70 1961-67 1968 1969 1970 Annual Changes (%): GDP at 1958 market prices 5.3 5.7 7.0 5.6 Agriculture, value added (consumer prices) 4.0 5.6 5.8 3.8 Manufacturing, value added (consumer prices) 8.6 9.1 9.2 8.4 Consumer prites 0.4 2.0 3.0 3.5 Rati.os to C)P (Z) Exports, f.o.b. 13.1 14.9 15.4 17.5 Imports, c.1.f. 15.0 16.5 15.4 15.5 Cross investment 11.5 14.3 14.0 15.0 Domestic savings 9.5 12.5 14.3 16.1 Source: Bank of Guatemala. -3- A. The rate of economic expansion is exnected to decline in the next two or three years to the level of 4-5 percent experienced in 1965-67, due mainly to lackof dvnamism in the external ctror, roulting from Inwe-r coffee prices and the crisis in the Common Market. Honduras in practice .I-A.-~r --- f-l r--m-o Market- in Januar 1971 when -;I- es-14shedA A...4-- on imports from Costa Rica, Guatemala and Nicaragua. At present there is 0 J7:. 4 t~all -raud betee Hodu a andV EiC CW 1Z~L 1-4.LIAU __ TCOly no tU Llt bdalvauul, .L1 LAL C omo MJJtlPL art).N partners can find a viable solution soon to the present obstacles, export Ca LLL,$ L ..41 c 4. LiJ UCi. V-. ove Ut b t ol y4 In t.1 e I. 7-) -7- after a slight decline in 1971. Uncertainty caused by the Common Market crisis a1n0 inrnLU s Lnrest. DALuat ULl L A1 i UKt e 1t AL . 0L11=C P -tALI to discourage private investment. On the other hand, public investment is ieely to ilcease, vuL, given s siall weight In LuL uemanu, it cannot be expected to offset the deflationary effects of sluggish exports and pri- vate investment. -MUL Lua LJ LL LU b a regulaLr 01 SIort-Lerm eco- nomic activity, public investment is essential to lay the necessary infra- structure [or future uevelopment. 7. Mleaium- and long-term prospects would improve considerably if an agreement were reached to begin construction on a large project to mine and refine nickel for export. After many years of negotiations, in February 1971 the Government granted a mining concession to EXMIBAL, a subsidiary of the international Nickel Company (INCO). Under Guatemala's industrial in- centive laws EXMIBAL would enjoy a five-year income tax holiday from the date construction begins, but the company has to credit the Government with 50 percent of the tax exemption towards the purchase by the Government of 30 percent of authorized capital. The project involves an initial invest- ment of over $260 million, with annual gross exports estimated to rise from $41 million to $82 million in the tenth year of operation, net toreign ex- change earnings rising from $6 million to $39 million. The concession agreement states explicitly tuat EXMIBAL's operations must at all times have a positive balance of payments effect. All debt to finance the project must have a term of at least ten years with three years of grace, and debt service cannot exceed net forein exchange earnings from the project in any year. Te major obstacles to project execution are the financial require- ments: INCO still must raise $90 million of long-term finance and the Guntemalan Covernment is reluctant to provide its guarantee. Discussions are taking place with the World Bank Group, Inter-American Development Bank and private sources of long-term finance, but it is not yet clear whether INCO can obtain assurances of suitable finance before the April 1972 dead- line suggested by the Guatemalan Government. Public Finance. 8. DTurin, the 1J61-69 period, Central Government current revenue grew at an annual rate of 7.1 percent and it increased from 8 to 9 percent as a ratio to GDP. This growth was primarily due to several increases in tax rates introduced so as to make the structure of revenues more responsive to chan;es in income. There were several major changes in 1967-69, including a surcharge of 10 percent on te:ie amount of direct tax payments, an increase in thte rate of the sales tax from 1.0 to 1.5 percent, and the introduction of a 30 percent surcharge on duty rates on consumer goods imports, as agreed under the San Jose Protocol. of Common narNet countries, in 9oo. ine in- crease in current revenues of 10 percent - somewhat more than the growth of GDP in current prices - achieved in 1970 occurred without any significant new taxation. The main sources of additional revenue in 1970 were import duties, stamp taxes, the coffee export tax and the company income tax. The buoyancy of revenue from import duties resulted from strong growth of imports and the application of the tull surcharge under the San Jose Protocol in the last quarter of the year, when it was extended to intermediate and capital goods. Coffee tax receipts increased from Q5.9 million to Q8.3 million, because of the combined effect of a 30 percent increase in the average export price and a rate structure progressive with respect to unit price. With the end of tax holidays for several manufacturing companies, revenue from the corpor- ation income tax increased by Q1.7 million in 1970 compared to Q3.3 million in 1966-69. 9. Central Government current revenues are expected to grow in 1971 at about the same pace as GDP, despite the decline in coffee tax receipts because of lower prices. On the other hand, revenues from the import duties should maintain a high growth rate because of the impact of the expanded San Jose Protocol surcharge over a full year. Moreover, improvement in the ad- ministration of direct taxes is continuing, and revenues from the company income tax can be expected to expand substantially as effective taxation is extended to several companies for which tax holidays under the incentive laws have ended. Table 2: SUMIARY OF CENTRAL GOVERNNENT OPERATIONS, 1967-73 (In millions of quetzales) lict_ual dL1stifficate. 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Current revenue 136.3 149.7 165.2 176.5 184.5 194.0 Current expenditure 118.3 129.3 147.8 144.2 19.9 158.2 Current account surplus 17.5 20.4 17.4 32.3 34.6 35.8 Capital receipts 2.2 2.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 Investment expenditure 25.6 30.0 34.2 40.2 47.0 59.0 Overall deficit (-) -5.9 -7.4 -16.0 -6.9 -11.4 -22.2 External financing. net 6.8 12.0 17.8 9.0 5.5 11.0 Domestic financing, net -0.9 -4.6 -1.8 -2.1 5.9 8.0 Banking system, net -3.3 5.0 -2.0 -3.2 6.0 6.0 Other (including floating debt) 2.4 -9.6 0.2 1.1 0.1 2.0 Can to hu, financed - - - - - 3.2 Source: Table 5.1, Appendix. - 5 - 10. Over the next two years, the Government intends to emphasize better tax administration, especially of direct taxes. In January 1971 Congress approved a law requiring an identification for each taxpayer, in lieu of the present practice of a separate identification for each tax. A technical com- mittee of the Ministry of Finance is currently working on this measure with assistance from USAID. The authorities hope to introduce a working scheme in 1972 or early 1973. Cross-checking of tax liabilities will also be eased by the proposed joint administration of property taxes by the Central Govern- ment and the municipal authorities in Guatemala City. Congress has already approved the legislation for this change. The authorities plan to introduce in 1Q72 n svtpm of exit travel rertificat.- undpr which dplinannt tax- payers would not be allowed to travel abroad until satisfactory arrangements for the naument of txn are romplPtPi Vinallv- thp fipldr mirit ct-.qff of the Ministry of Finance has been strengthened with a view to establishing clc~ vaiyinw. nf tn-z Ar-Irt-inne q "4na it On '.t c t1it wqtin 1Dtt a ni n- istration revenue yielded from the existing tax system would be adequate to meet reqUire.ents, Hp CGovernment does not feel tha-t it 4q necessary to- in- troduce any new taxes at this time. However, some preliminary ideas exist a-nnr psible ta me nasu,res,cornsisti ng mainly, of4 incraesi the -a na'tioan of sales and of real estate property. The Government has not yet made any de- cision on whether and when such measures might be presented to Congress expanded by only 4-5 percent annually, and at the end of the decade they accounted LUL Less hilan U pCLLCnt UL GDE d,a iUudLaUII Of LIC LedLiVt=Y low level of Government services. Current outlays continued to expand slow- Ly in 1970, but purchases of defense equipment totalling Q13 million, which are counted as part of current expenditures, led to an apparent increase of 14 percent or Q18.5 million during 1970. However, Lte Lncrease Lu Lte de- fense budget was a one-time expenditure which will probably not be repeated during the next few years. Excluding the defense equipment purchase from 1970 current expenditures, these are estimated to increase by about 7 per- cent in 1971, while in 1972 the increase is expected to be about 5 percent. However, if the levels of investment planned are achieved in the next two to tnree years, much larger increases o. current expenditures W111 De required later in the 1970's. 12. The present and projected structure of current expenditures shows a shift towards development expenditures, compared to the distribution of the mid-1960's. For the future, the shire of education is expected to rise subscantially beginning in about 1974, whin the education projects financed by the IIRD and USAID will have been completed and in operation. Public Investment 13. The Government's share in fixed capital formation has fluctuated around 2 to 3 percent of GDP in the last decade, with fluctuations deter- mined by the construction of a few major projects. Although public invest- ment in the last decade has made some key contributions to the development of necessary infrastructure in ports, highways and electricity, it has not as a whole been a dynamic factor in the economy. The authorities hope to change this trend in the period of the 1971-75 Plan. - 6 - 14. Since 1968 Central Government investment, including capital trans- fers to autonomous agencies, has increased by about 05 million per year, reaching an estimated Q40 million in 1971. Direct investment in 1971 is estimated to be slivhtly lower than in 1970. but capital transfers are about double, mainly because of a five-fold increase in transfers to agriculture for the cnnitnlization of new institutions. The growth in Central Govern- ment investment is expected to continue in 1972, in effect the first year nf imn1PmPnfftinn nf thp Pl-n nPriod qinrp rP.nircP in 1971 wprp ronrpn- trated on establishing institutions (see paras. 18-22 below). Direct in- vestment is PwnArtPd tn inpron.qP hv nA millinn nr qbnt-t 30 nprrpnt in 1979 mainly in education. Although direct investment in agriculture will decline, overall public Sector effort in thic ccnor raill in'rncX QnhCtantial1 nwing to the commencement of AID-financed supervised credit programs through the unewly ceatedl Agricultural Development R-ik 1,fRANTTWIZA1 Table 3: CENTRAL GOVERN!NENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE DV MATnD =TT\rleTANT 10% O 7J ,L.L.LLn o uetz~L~a.les 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Total Investment 25.6 30.0 34.2 40.2 47.0 59.0 Direct Invesiment 18.2 23.3 27.5 26.9 35.0 45.0 Agriculture 1.6 4.1 5.9 4.4 3.0 7.0 Transport i.4 13.4 13.4 2.7 . io. Communications 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 - - Education 1.0 1.7 1.1 1.0 7.5 9.0 Health 3.1 3.1 2.1 2.5 6.5 10.0 General services 0.4 U.5 L.5 5.0 3.5 3.0 Other direct - - 1.9 0.6 0.5 - Transfers 7.4 6.7 6.7 13.3 12.0 14.0 Agriculture 1.0 1.5 1.7 10.0 6.1 7.0 Housing 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 U.8 1.0 Power 3.0 3.1 2.5 1.0 2.4 3.0 Other 2.8 1.8 2.0 1.3 2.7 3.0 Source: Table 5.2, Appendix, and IBRD staff projection. 15. Direct investment by autonomous public agencies, especially in power and telecommunications, is expected to increase sharply over the next four years. The National Electricity Institute (INDE) invested about $9.0 million in 1970 (roughly the same as in 1968-69) and is expected to complete -7- its current expansion program this year, with further expenditure of about $4.0 million. By 1973 INDE will begin a significant expansion of its ther- mal capacity, at an estimated total cost of $25-27 million, with possible financial assistance from the IBRD, and plans are also well advanced for a large USAID-financed rural electrification project. In the period 1972-75. the newly established Guatemala Telecommunications Company (GUATEL) will undertake a maior expansion program to increase the installed capacity of exchanges in Guatemala City, exchanges outside the capital and long distance facilities. The total cost of the new project during the period 1972-75 is estimated at $21.2 million. The Bank is considering financing about 75 per- cent of the cost of this program, with the rest coming from internal cash generation and a small amount of Central Government transfers. Financing Public Investment 16. Data on the financing of public investment outside the Central Government are fragmentary- hut q 1nrcp nqrt in recent years has hppn fi- nanced by transfers from the Central Government. As regards the Central Government ituelf in recent ypnrq itc rirront Qnuinctc finanPAd - rplantviuv large share - about 60 percent - of investment expenditure. However, this was meralxr a r-flction of the low lo'vel nf intetment (ant 2 percnt of GDP in 1968-71), rather than an indication of strong fiscal performance. The ratio of current -rAaia f-nfMT (about 9 percent, on average, during 1968-70) was very low in relation to average per capita income, value added in. t-b modern~ sector andrtAnher indiartors of t--able apacityl4- (see CA3a para. 148). Owing to limitations in project preparation, the Government had commercial sources rather than utilize more favorable long-term funds from in some years (e.g. 1968 and 1971), and a substantial share of gross dis- UUL Lent LL YpL L=_LLH Li LuU.UVL- CUtU bL1ULL-LVLL1 UZUL. Table 4: FINANCING CENTRAL GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT, 1968-73 (In millions of quetzales) 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Total investment 25.6 30.0 34.2 40.2 47.0 59.0 Direct (18.2) (23.3) (27.5) (26.9) (34.8) (45.0) Transfers ( 7.4) ( 6.7) ( 6.7) (13.3) (12.2) (14.0) Financing Current surplus 17.5 20.4 17.4 32.3 34.6 35.8 Capital receipts 2.2 2.2 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 Foreign borrowing (net) 6.8 12.0 17.8 9.0 5.5 11.0 Development loans ( 9.2) (15.4) (13.5) (14.0) (16.0) (20.0) Commercial loans (12.0) (10.0) (15.0) ( 6.0) ( - ) ( - ) Amortization (14.4) (13.4) (10.7) (11.0) (10.5) ( 9.0) Domestic borrowing (net) -0.9 -4.6 -1.8 -2.1 -5.9 -8-0 Can to be financed - - - 32 Source: Table 5.1, Appendix. 17. If the projected substantial increase in investment is to be achieud, the Central G%ernment raill need to mbnilize a mlrh hnr- lvnel of domestic resources through changes in tax policy. Assuming that current ex-enditures Will increas by a very mo-,ar.te 7 p ercenmt bn-..-- 1Q71-J71 t-l- current budget surplus would level off at around $35 million over the next t,- o y a ss3 L .AL P ubi c invesYtmen U . i s, --1-k-c-.y , fl- 1"'4 L_rAO~ aii&*O'..a. capabilities, to increase from Q34 million in 1970 to almost Q60 million in 193 4, t u iL~ inLcLreas, ing, 41S s are u fJ -4 - LUIIiI 3, 1)jC AL L & 9i_0S 1J U0 Z. *V perL- cent in 1973 and causing an unfinanced gap to appear at the end of the period. I L ui U L OCU al ! li UL CAL _L L i LUt. h ; t-L CLIUU i li LU LUVCL PLU.JCU LCU gross disbursements until 1973, and the Government intends to utilize a eAL ve'y mouerate amount U uolesic creitL, mainuy frum LCe vauinug sys- tem, in order to finance its investment program. Thus, it will be possible to avoid a recurrence of general-purpose borrowing from foreign oank sources at commercial terms. Of course, the need to introduce new tax measures may well arise before i73, if current expenditures increase at a faster rate than assumed in the projections. At any rate, unless tax administration improves dramatically, additional revenue measures will become mandatory by 1973, since current expenditures, especially in education, will by then have increased as a result of the accelerated investment effort, and because public sector institutions. Development Institutions 18. In the last year the Government has concentrated much of its atten- tion on estaDilsning several uevelopment institutions which are essential tur implementing the five-year Plan. In particular, progress has been made in creating more satisfactory institutions in agriculture. Both an agricultural development bank and a commodity price stabilization agency (INDECA) have been established, and a reorganized land reform agency (INTA) is expected to expand operations early in 1972. In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture has under- gone a major reorganization with the result that all extension services ana personnel working directly on the Rural Development Program are centralized in one department. 19. In May 1971 the agricultural credit services of existing agencies 1/ were merged into a new agricultural development bank (BANDESA). BANDESA's subscribed capital ($12 million) is expected to come from a Government con- tribution in 1971, from assets transferred from the four former agricultural credit institutions and from the possible sale of bonds. In addition, BANDESA is expected to administer trust funds, in particular a part of the USAID loan of $23 million for the Rural Development Program. BANDESA is already financing credit operations on a small scale from its own resources and has recently completed all requirements to begin disbursements under the USAID loan, but overall lending is not expected to expand substantially until. the beginning of the next crop year in March 1972. Most of the staff of BANDESA are either former employees of the previous agricultural institu- tions or newly graduated agricultural technicians. IDB has agreed to pro- vide technical assistance and USAID will help in recruiting financial spe- cialists. 20. in December 1970 the National Institute of Agricultural Commer- cialization (INDECA) was created to stabilize prices and improve the mar- keting of basic grains and vegetables. INDECA is receiving $3.5 million from the Government over a five-year period and can also draw on special credit lines from the Bank of Guatemala for the purchase of grains. The Central American Bank for Economic Integration (BCIE) is providing a loan for building and enlarging silos to more than double present storage capac- ity. 21. Progress has been slower in establishing the industrial develop- ment bank (CORFINA) because of disagreement between the Government and the private sector about the control of the institution. A compromise was re- cently reached, according to which 45 percent of equity and 3 out of 7 mem- bers of the Board of Directors would be allocated to the private sector. No 1/ Banco Nacional Agrario, Credito Hipotecario, Instituto de Fomento de la Produccion rINFOF) and Inter-American Cooperative Service for Supervised Agricultural Credit (SCICAS). major difficulties are expected when the draft law establishing the bank is of approximately $15 million will be provided over a five-year period by the contributions of 5-10 percent of the value of allowable import duty exemp- L UL L LS4 .u u -A -c LLL.. ,A.,.,. tai 6AL. ua a A. . LLUCU LV C £C ,$Ld L .1.11. CORFITA, which will provide both loan and equity capital and technical Li ~ IIIU U LUL U ac i.C W .L LViIJjAC.U.L.Ly PJLny anL important role in stimulating private investment in industry, mining and LUUL til. D Ce Li UL LIULLdC" 01 tAPU1.LtLLCU bLILL WLL UU GLMJ U t neck, both USAID and IDB have offered technical assistance. 22. As noted above, in April 1971 the Empresa Guatemalteca de Tele- comunicaciones LTurTJ , an autonomous public agency responsible for inter- national and domestic telephone service, was created by merging two existing entities. I/ The reorganization of telecommunications was an essential step for the large expansion program proposed by USAID and the Bank. The Bank is now considering financing the program. money and Credit 23. while cautious monetary policies have been instrumental in main- taining remarkable price stability throughout the 1960's and in curbing imports in years of balance or payments deticits, credit availability tor developmental purposes has been jeopardized by its abrupt fluctuations and the mobilization of private savings has not been sufficient for the develop- ment needs of Guatemala. The main factor which shaped monetary policy was the objective of maintaining balance of payments equilibrium in the face of fluctuating export earnings. In line with this objective, the expansion of net domestic credit of the banking system was kept more or less in line with the rate of growth of exports which averaged about 11 percent annually. In line with export fluctuations, annual changes in credit were generally quite abrupt. After growing by almost 9.5 percent in 1969, total credit increased by only 2 percent in 1970 and expanded at an annual rate of about 3.5 percent in the first half of 1971, largely because of the stagnation of net credit to the public sector, with small changes in other banking system assets. 24. Banking system liabilities to the private sector increased by 11 percent in 1970, about the same rate as in the 1960's. The share in the total money and quasi-money supply of time and savings deposits, which increased from 25 to 50 percent during the past decade, continued to rise rapidly in the first half of 1971 reaching almost 60 percent. Rapid growth in aggre- gate private savings which as a proportion of GDP increased from 5 to 13 1/ The two existing entities were: (i) the Directorate General of Telecom- munications (Ministry of Communications and Public Works), which was in charge of national telephone and telegraph operations, and (ii) the Empresa Cuatemalteca de Telecomunicaciones Internacionales (a public autonomous agency), which was responsible for all international serv- ices and domestic telex facilities. . - 11 - percent during 1960-1970, the low level of taxation, and the price stabil- ity, which made real interest rates consistently positive, are all factors which explain this rise in deposits. Most of the additional savings were absorbed by the commercial banks (savings deposits increased at an annual rate of 22 percent in the first half of 1971), with very little going to the public development banks, which therefore were not capable of expand- ing their medium-and long-term lending sufficiently. About 80 percent of outstanding loans of the banking system in 1969 were at a term of one year or less. Balance of Payments 25. Guatemala's balance of Dayments improved substantially in 1970, but it is still heavily dependent on the export of a few primary products .nd for manufactured goods- on the small Common Market. In snite of a steep decline in cotton receipts ($13 million) in 1970, total merchandise epnrtq incraRed by 11-6 nercent- mainly hPnnqP of hichpr onffe rprpinfe (+23.4 percent) and exceptionally large exports to the CACM (+22.5 percent). [hilp t-hp intrPne- in thp uiliip of cofftp Pxnortv rpciltPA f-rnm n O nprnont rise in the average price received, the substantial expansion of regional exports was based mainly on a Inrgr volume nf saloc, onpiallyto Hndurac which absorbed about 60 percent of the increase. This strong export growth and a substantial net nhlic cnitn1 inflnya ^Ffont 0h 11 perent Inease in imports, with the result that net international reserves grew by $29 mil- lion to a level eqUialent to ant 11 weerf f 4mports of good and ser- vices, compared to an average 6.5 weeks in 1966-69. The major component of imo got was raw materials, which rose 1D.. M.-a.-; 15- - higher production for the regional market and probably also because of stock- j). .LLLL1 prior - to the effe~ .ctiveness V~L o f Lt ...,,c 3 Oj JLLL . UL%t.Lat CZL ULL tCZW IUIIOL rial imports in September. 26. The substantial balance of payments improvement in 1970 cannot be expecteu to ve uaitntaieu, in view u L[e very moueUs Luort-e-Um uutluuk LU[ exports. However, if the authorities are successful in containing import growtu v avuu p-r en 4 n I U - I, unaCemala ouulu nU CACLi e any serious balance of payments problems, although this objective will involve a Imr moes Ur L C 0n0miC A LgrMWth t A L11C ido L LLILas thrLe yLLAfL declining by about 3.5 percent in 1971, export earnings should recover slow- ly at about 4 percent annually over Lne following two years. Cufee prices are expected to fall by about 6 percent in 1971 and are likely to decline luruter in 1i97-t/, out tne Leuction inu export value SnouLa De small owing to some increase in volume. Cotton sales in 1971 are expected to be about 25 percent higher than last year, but the growth rate should be consideradbly lower in 1972-73, when prices are likely to stabilize or decline and the acreage under cultivation is therefore not likely to increase much further. 27. ine present crisis of [ne CAM nas strongly arrectea Guatemala-s exports of manufactured products. In January 1971 Honduras introduced duties on imports Lrom Le Market and in practice withdrew in protest against what it considered to be the inequitable distribution of benefits under the pres- ent Common Market structure. Trade problems between Guatemala and Costa Rica - 12 - also appeared in June, when Costa Rica placed quotas on certain imports from other Central American countries. Guatemala eventually accepted an export quota for some regionally traded goods. Under these circumstances exports to the CACM in 1971 will probably not exceed the 1969 level. Guatemala, along with Nicaragua and Costa Rica, is currently negotiating new trading arrangements with Honduras, but these are not expected to be in operation before 1972. 28. The last economic report identified possibilities for strengthen- ing the external sector through diversification, especially in mining, non- traditional agriculture (vegetables, fruits, flowers), shrimp and tourism. In addition the report stressed the importance of developing new markets for both traditional and new products. The Government has already adopted some policies in support of this long-term objective. These policies include strengthening agricultural credit and extension services (see paras. 17-18) and the establishment in 1971 of an export promotion agency. As already indicated in para. 7. the Government has also negotiated a nickel-mining concession, which would generate an investment of US$260 million in the next three years if financine arrangements can he made. 29. Guatemala's debt service ratio was about 9 percent in 1970, and is not likely to increase substantially, provided non-project borrowing from forpivn rnmmprcil hanks i- nvnidpd in futurp vpqr. Nft rnnitnl inflnw iR estimated at about $115 million in 1971-73, compared to $99 million in 1968- 70 As far as the niihlin coet-r ic rcnePrnpA Hp pvictinc ninplinp of un- disbursed foreign loans ($107.8 million on December 31, 1970) will cover a sshtanzitn 1 qhnrp nf arnce rnnirnl inflow- Ahnt nnp-mnartor of thp debt repayable in foreign currencies is due to foreign banks at medium-term. In line rith the existinC g sandh arranomnr t .7Hi th the TMPafforctive inf-1 December 28, 1971), authorities are trying to lengthen the average maturity of outstanding debt by reducing liabll4-es with a ma~turity of l ess than 10 years. 30. The efforts of the new Government to establish new institutions in k y etorsL a re at muajor& aut. JLa~ *LLt 1F-- -A ~ fl ---4-- . -4f-l, -fL tta~... long-term development problems. For the medium-term future Guatemala faces a constaLLiL in L UnVl Uplet LUI H ±Uw UWLU Uf the sltow growhL o L aUi- tional exports. With its moderate external debt service ratio, Guatemala can1, LU bULIIC CALCHLL 1! L11 4 L&LUULil LLUL;LtC3aCU LULU4.6A LUH-LC=LL UtZ- velopment loans for worthwhile programs. A major condition for the availa- bility and utilization of such Lunus will be Le existence of a sufficient level of public savings, which will probably require some form of tax action by the beginning of ia. STATISTICAL APPENDIX I. POPULATION 1.1 Distribution of Population by Size of Settlement, 1950, 1965-69. 1.2 Economically Active Population by Sector, 1950, 1960-66. II. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 2.1 Gross Domestic Product by Sector, 1960, 1965-70. 2.2 Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure Categories, 1960, 1965-70. 2.3 National and Domestic Savings, 1960, 1965-70. 2.4 Investment and Savings Ratios, 1960, 1965-70. 2.5 Value Added in Manufacturing by Major Industrial Branches, 1950, 1955, 1960-70. 2.6 Gross Value of Production of Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and Fisheries, 1960-70. III. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, EXTERNAL FINANCE 3.1 Balance of Payments, 1965-73. 3.2 Value, Volume and Unit Price of Principal Exports, 1961-70. 3.3 Summary of Imports, 1961-70. 3.4 Trade with Other Central American Countries, 1960-70. IV. EXTERNAL DEBT 4.1 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1970 (Foreign). 442 Estimated Future Service Payments on External Public Deht Out.tanding Including Undisbursed as of December 31, 1970 (Foreign). 40A Past Transactions on External PubTic DAt. 1966-70 (Foregn). 4.4 External Public Debt Outstanding as of December 31, 1970 'Local). A-5 Estimated Future Service Payments on External Public Debt Outstanding Including Undisbursed as of December 31, 1970 (Local). 4A Past Transactions on External Public Dht, 1966-70 (Local), V. PUBIT.TC FTNANCE 5.l Srmmary of Cen+tral GovernmentOpnatifns, 1065-73. 5.2 Central Government Capital Expenditure by Major Function, 1968-73. 0/-3 CentlA Govrnen Current' Expenitur by*~A Major' Fucin 196"73 5.4 Central Government Current Revenue, 1968-73. VT. MONEY AND CREDIT 6.1 Summary Accounts of the Banking System, 1966-71. 6.2 Sector Composition of Credit to the Private Sector, 1961-70.  Table 1.1 : GUATEMALA: DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY SIZE OF SETTLEMENT Census Estimate 1950 1965 1969 k UivubdllUbj Tnt.nl no-nniltion - 11 9ttlem nt 2,701 LC oo-1 Settlements of less than 200 inhabitants) 871) 200 but less than 2,000 inhabitan ) 2,120 0,06h L o( 2,000 but less than 10,000 inhabitants 359 779) 10,000 but less than 0000 inhabitants 07 50,000 but less than 100,000 inhabitants -- -- -- More than 100,000 inhabitants ALO An Tot.nl nonulation - qll qptt1ment. Inn n n0n n 1n0n Settlements of less than 200 inhabitants) 19.0) Onn 7-4- 1es- +I U -1 I a n 1 Ann0 -- 4l -1 e 1a J 75*1 1.UJ n .1. 2,000 but less than 10,000 inhabitants 12.9 17.0) 'I n nnnt 1- .4- '1- -,- . 1, -- ifn nnn 4 J- 1- 4- 4. z - 0 1uuu vu 00 uuu less uhcm30 inuiU0nuo .u v.u 0.0 50,000 but less than 100,000 inhabitants -- -- r1ore tha-un Luv,000 in11dhabi Li s0. 13.0 10 Source: General Statistical Office. CELADE: Boletln demogra'ico, Uctober 196u Table 1.2 : GUATEMALA: ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION BY SECTOR, 1950, 1960-66 . 1950 1960 . 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 (nnbler of persons) Total 57,814 11 72.62 11187,731 8 1,33,222 337,10 1,9 2 ~ 00 AgricuLture, forestry, fishing 659,550 773,807 773,626 790,758 893,b71 861,10 888,800 17,600 Mi ring 1,8U41 2,035 1,3h7 1,390 1,626 1,720 1,800 1,2- Industry 111,538 133,742 137,768 141,L21 151,228 149,860 15L,319 (Cnstruction 26,127 26,977 33,688 28,839 26,340 3h,220 35,3X 3 b,50 Ele:ztricity 1,244 1,461 1,546 1,567 1,848 1,680 1,600 ,700 Cc::rerce 52,561 67,34 9 68,353 71,891 80,934 82,280 85,000 87,7C0 Transpart 15,352 23,870 25,713 30,738 26,494 28,180 29,,1C 3 0,0 Serv-ces 99,701 13,L11 15,690 149,114 156,281 158,860 163,60 0 (percentages) Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 I!. iL griculture, forestry, fishing 68.1 66.0 65.1 65.1 66.8 65.4 65. 65. Ki ni ng 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.. 0.1 0.1 0.1 1 dI 5 try 11.5 11. 11.6 11.6 11.-3 11.3 11.3 11.3 construc tio 2.7 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.6 2.6 6 Electrici ty 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 ,c:;erce 5.4 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.2 Transport 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.0 2.1 :2.1 2.1 Services 10.3 12.2 12.3 12.3 11.7 12.0 12.0 12.0 Source: Bank of Guatemala. Teble 2.1 UUATULA: uU 1LiROSLS DOMa1CROU T BY SEiCT, 1y6U, 1905-70 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 (In millions of 1958 quetzales) tross doamestic producst (marklet pric es) I N.Q 9 1 lcr 9 1 kw r) I IhRA 1. 1 <71 0 1 AP), 1 77. Primary production 319.9 391.0 40?.4 40?.9 h32.5 h57.6 h75.1 Agriculture and related sectors- .1il )..1 107 -T.-n=l -- 1 795 77 =-4 Mining 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.L 1.7 Senndarrnroduction 16L. 229.h 2 L2 27l . 29q.1 1o.8 TL5. Manuacturing 135.5 =9,. 210.7 -72-T M.2 29~ 7T Construction 20.7 24.5 26.6 29.3 27.6 28.5 28.7 Utilities 7.3 1h.1 15.9 16.7 18.3 20.1 21.7 Services 565.7 73h.8 767. 8014.1 846.3 905.8 957.6 Transoort and communications !5-3 737 7X 7. 79.9 91.3 97.4 Commercial services 274.5 376.6 397.2 417.6 448.4 477.5 507.9 Financial services 18.7 32.7 33.4 35.0 36.2 38.2 42.1 Housine services 94.4 107.6 111.5 11.9 118.2 121.8 125.0 Public administration 63.7 65.1 66.8 72.2 73.3 82.6 86.9 Other 64.1 79.0 83.0 86.3 90.3 94.4 98.3 (As percentage of GDP) Gross domestic product 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Primary production '0.0 28.9 28.6 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.7 Agriculture and related sectors 7t .17 2 *27-. 27.7 77T 2 Mining 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 Secondary productior 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.4 Manufacturing 13.1 = T7 -.3 T- 162 -T37 Construction 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.f Utilities 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 3.2 Services 5h.o 54.2 53.7 54.0. 53.8 53.t 53- Transport and communications -T3 -T.7 3 5 ,.1 T 5. Commercial services 26.0 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.L 28.6 Financial services 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 Housing services 8.8 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.0 Public administration 6.0 4.8 4.7 4.9 .7 4.9 .9 Other 6.o e.8 I.8 . 57 5.u v.I Sources Bank of Guatemala and IBRD Mission estimates. Table 2.2: GUATFMALA: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY EXPENDITURE CATEORIES, 1960, 1965-70 Estimates 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 (In millions of current quetzales) Consumption expenditures 955.8 1,181. 1.2116.6 1.299.9 1 370 5 1,460.2 1.581.7 General government 79.9 97.9 T.0 1127 115!2 131.2 - Domestic investment 107.6 180.2 1h9.L 202.7 224.6 238.' 288.5 Grss.fixed canitalfrmatn*n10. TY TT 101 7 7717 -T97=K1 General government (26.6) (41.2) (3.1) (43.8) (7.2) (49.) (9.6) Private sector (75.5) (132.3) (129.3) (147.9) (177.2) (194.2) (213.0) Change 4n inventories 5.h 6.7 -18:0 11 0 3Th .AA1 2_ Gross domestic exoenditure 1,063.h 1,361.7 1,396.0 1 502.6 1,59.1 1,698.7 1 870.2 Net halane goods and services -19.d -30.E Exports 131.9 227T 2 2 327 2Td 33.2 3777 Imports 151.7 256.7 262.6 281.3 296.2 298.6 335.5 Gross omesti _ 1,0L3.6 1.331.1 1.391.3 1.56.0 1,565.7 1,713.3 1-85.6 Net factor income payments -il.5 -16.T1) -20.0 -26.1 -33.9 Gross national product 1,033.2 1,319.6 1,372.7 1,433.2 1,537.6 1,672.41 1 (As percentage of GDP) Consmaption expenditures 91.6 88.8 89.6 89.4 87.5 85.7 83.9 General government 7.7 TT T 7.7 -7.T 70 -71 Private settor 83.9 81.4 82.1 - 81.7 80.2 78.0 75.5 Domestic investment 10.2 13.5 10.7 13.9 116.3 1h.0 15.3 Gross fixed capital investment 9.7 13.0 12.0 13.2 3l-1 1 .3 13.? General government (2.5) (3.1) (2.7) (3.0) (2.8) :(2.9) (2.6) Private sector (7.2) (9.9) (9.3) (10.2) (11.3) (11.4) (11.3) Change in inventories 0.5 0.5 -1.3 0 0.7 0.2 -0.3 1.4 Gross domestic expenditure 101.9 102.3 100.3 103.3 101.9 99.7 99.2 Net balance goods and services -1.9 -2.3 -0.3 -3.3 -1.9 0.3 O 0.0 Exports 12. 17.0 T-T1 1f 17.0 TU3 105 Imports 1h.5 -19.3 -18.9 -19.3 -18.9 -17.5 -17.8 Gross domestic product 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Bank of Guatemala and IBRD Mission estimates. Table 2 .3 GUATEKALA: NATIONAL AND DOMESTIC SAVINGS, 1960, 1965-70 (In millions of current quetzales) 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 GDP at market prices 1,043.6 1,331.1 1,391.3 1,hs).0 1,565.7 1,703.3 1,885.6 Consumption 955.8 1,181.5 1,246.6 1,299.9 1370.5 1,460.2 1,581.7 Gross domestic savings 87.8 149.6 144.7 154.1 195.2 243.1 303.9 Gross investment 107.5 180.2 149.4 202.7 224.6 238.5 288.5 Resource gap 19.7 30.6 4.7 48.6 29.4 - 4.6 - 15.b Net factor income payments o10.4 - 11.5 -1 8.6 - 20.8 28.1 - 30.9 - 36.0 National savings 77.4 138.1 126.1 133.3 167.1 212.2 267.9 Public savings 21.0 29.1 16.3 12.3 20.9 27.5 2L.A Private savings 56.4 109.0 109.8 121.0 146.2 184.7 2)43.5 Source: Table 2.2 Table 2.h: GUATEMALA: IDVESTMENT AND SAVINGS RATIOS, 1960, 1965-70 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Gross investment as % of GDP 10.3 13.5 10.7 13.9 14.3 14.0 15.0 Domestic savings as % of GDP 8.4 11.2 10.4 10.6 12.5 124.3 16.1 Resource gap as % of investmerit 18.3 17.0 3.0 24.o 13.1 surpl. surpl. Marginal domestic savings ratio 0.74 - 0.20 0.06 0.30 0.33 0.31 National savings as % of GDP 7.4 10.4 9.1 9.2 10.7 12.5 14.2 Source: Table. 2.3 Table 2.5: GUATEMALA: VALUE ADDED IN MANUFACTURING BY MAJOR INDUSTRIAL BRANCHS, 1950, 1955, 1960-70 (In million quetzales at 1958 prices) 1950 1955 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 Food processing 26.2 29.5 39.9 41.0 43.8 48.2 51.7 53.5 54.9 58.3 62.4 71.3 77.C Beverages 19.1 19.7 24.6 23.8 22.5 23.8 24.9 26.3 26.5 26.6 27.2 30.2 32.C Tobacco 9.4 9.6 11.2 11.1 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.7 1l.3 16.5 15.2 15.8 17.6 Textiles 4.7 6.4 10.4 11.9 15.7 21.0 30.8 37.9 26.6 29.4 31.9 31.7 33.8 Clothing and footwear 11.1 13.2 18.9 20.2 24.1 29.0 34.5 38.9 26.8 27.8 30.9 33.4 34.0 Wood and cork manufactures 2.0 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.8 3.8 4.2 4.1 3.9 5.0 5.4 Furniture and fixtures 3.6 4.1 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.o 6.2 6.4 6.6 Paper and paper goods - 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.6 4.o 4.9 Printing and allied industries 1.2 1.7 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.5 5.h Leather and leather products 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.9 3.7 3.7 Rubber products 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 3.2 3.6 4.5 4.1 h.h Chemicals and products 2.7 2.9 4.6 5.1 5.8 6.0 6.4 6.6 7.5 8.6 10.5 9.5 10.0 Non-metallic minerals 3.8 4.8 5.3 6.4 6.2 7.1 9.3 10.1 10.9 10.0 8.9 10.6 10.1 Metal products 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.6 3,8 4.8 5.4 11.7 16.1 21.1 23.6 27.9 Machinery, excluding electrical 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.9 2.6 3.5 3.9 4.6 Electrical machinery 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.1 4.9 Transportation equipment 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.0 Miscellaneous 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.9 3.7 4.8 6.1 7.8 10.0 TOTAL 86.6 98.5 132.4 139.2 :L51.6 172.2 198.5 218.7 210.7 228.4 249.2 272.2 295.1 Index 1960 = 100 65.4 74.3 100.0 105.1 114.5 130.0 149.9 L65.1 159.1 172.5 188.2 205.5 222.8 Scource: Bank of Guatemala. Tab1e 2.6 GUATEMALA: GROSS VALUE OF PRODUCTION OF AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK, FORESTRY AND FISHERIES. 1960-70 Estknte 1960 196 _ 196 _ 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 _ 196 L_ _ .969 170 (In thousand qiel.zales at 1958 prices) Agiulue22681.9 226,612.6 237,310. 286,7971 289,787.0 21ý5,507. }12,215.2 28]r266.9 }21 . },g m }661. Food eropa 87,952.0 90,788.3 94,103.0 109,384.7 115,111.7 116,951.9 120,764.5 118,5L4.7 124,793.1 maise 24,713.6 25,234.2 26,363.2 32,795,7 34,797.4 34,396.3 35,321.9 32,81.8 30,959.9 rice 1,473.6 1,359.5 1,713.1 1,967.7 2,632.9 3,054.2 3,341.6 2,L90.0 1,550.3 mheat 2,591.4 3,On.2 3,152.3 h,163.9 4,408.3 4,856.2 4,904.6 3,139.3 1,571.9 barley 13.6 13.0 12.3 14,3 16.4 17., 16.4 19.7 20.4 beans 15,326.4 15,570.8 15,833.1 20,237.2 21,472.0 21,214.2 21,786.7 25,725.0 30,197.6 Una beans 860.3 887.6 91.9 920.4 900.1 928.2 957.1 1,065.5 1,098.2 lentila 4.9 4.9 4.9 4,.9 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.4 6.6 ground nuts 95.7 98.7 99.8 105,.9 108.9 n2.0 U5.0 115.0 118.1 Beans 123.8 141.7 195.4 289.0 216.7 197.5 197.5 582.0 619.2 potatoe 1,218.9 1,335.4 1,567.9 1,343.2 1,652.3 1,948.5 2,181.5 :1,414.2 2,219.1 vigetabl1,863.2 15,541.8 15,L1.6 15,923.4 16,417.2 16,926.0 17,451.0 17,956.8 18,513.6 truita 15,798.8 16,798.4 17,531.0 17,962.6 18,684.0 :19,271.1 29,876.8 19,539.4 20,1 5.1 oler 10,867.8 10,791.1 11,300.5 13,657.o 13,799.4 1,,024.2 1,608-3 13,679.4 14,773.1 Industrial oropa 138,861.9 135,826.3 143,207.4 177,412.4 174,675.3 177,556.0 191,450.7 1&3,722.2 185,442.0 coffee 87,657.5 85,628.2 88,333.8 103,021.2 97,846.7 105,300.9 104,843.4 87,765.8 95,188.4 cac 310.1 404.1 174.2 257.8 181.2 188.1 195.1 202.1 209.0 rubber 249.7 249.7 538.7 724.9 882.6 915.4 1,322.8 :1,898.7 2,104.6 cotton (1nt) 8,895.4 11,91.9 18,119.5 30,472.4 35,840.5 40,090.2 46,557.8 36,866.8 40,698.0 ctton (seed) 950.3 1,299.4 1,975.4 3,309.5 3,905.2 4,376.4 5,085.6 3,950.6 4,544.9 kQnaf o.o 96.0 460.8 534.4 562.4 671.2 697.6 752.0 720.0 eugar k/ 14,388.6 13,987.4 17,904.4 18,221.9 18,255.4 16,430.9 17,614.6 2,0,733.4 20,743.0 banana exprt 20,237.5 17,55b.7 11,472.2 15,687.6 12,197.6 4,408.8 9,849.5 8,305.0 15,243.0 oLtrinela . 6C0.0 212.8 269.5 421.3 439.8 478.6 398.2 356.5 246.7 lifon grawse 1,091.7 584.8 919.3 1,235.9 970.1 729.1 . 792.3 743.0 585.1 cardamom 1,524.0 769.7 7,400.9 1,262.3 1,323.9 1,216.1 1,231.5 1,770.3 1,847.3 tobacco 1,019.8 1,000.8 1,028.2 1,443.3 1,491.8 1,637.-1 1,755.1 :1,978.5 1,881.6 ehicle 1,861.3 2,094.8 610.5 819.9 778.1 1,113.2 1,113.2 3,399.5 1,430.4 Livestock , 88.462.4 89,126.3 92,153.7 _92,U5.7 _4.040.1 59,847.1 118.972.8 121.290.1 L]Q_642. 1.<582227.2 Forestry 280.6 1228 3 31.729.7 34.175.2 36,038.5 37,172.8 38,181.4 3,289.4 L9 L30_. JW.. Fiahing and huntinlg 3,j16.9 L92 3876. 3, 4,803.0 165 4,U93.2 .5.064.4 .5. ij.| . 7.1 Total grose value of p~eduLion 2L0II7å9 348.6. 6.1 414.622,1 157~0 '1 4.728. 4.8. 7.6. 0.5. ,1. Input. 22,092.9 24,659.7 25,867.8 31,145.4 36,148.8 39,390.5 41,675.3 41,352.6 43,651.1 46,225.4 47,960.6 Total valut added 318,095.9 323,607.5 335,043.8 383,477.2 384,762.1 389,361.3 412,053.0 408,132.9 430,817.0 456,225.1 473,356.5 (As percentage of gross value of production) Agriculture 66.7 65.1 65.8 69.2 68.8 68.7 68.8 63.9 65.4 61.8 60.7 (food orops) (25.9) (26.1) (26.1) (26.4) (27.3) (27.3) (26.6) (26.4) (26.3) (industrial crop() (4. (39. (39.7) (42.8) (41.5) (41.4) (42.2) (37.5) (39.1) Livetock 24.0 25.b 24.7 22.2 21.9 21.9 22.0 26.5 25.6 29.4 30.4 Forestry 8.4 8.6 3.5 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.2 8.5 8.1 7.7 7.9 Fishing and hunting 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 Total gross value of produ,ction 1.0.Q0 loo- j_002.0 1000 100.0 100.C 100.0 100.0 100.0 a/ Ineludes banaLa for domstic conumption. Ineludes centrifugal and non-centrifagal sugar, and syrup. Souraet Bank of Guatemala. Tal - 1' UAE.MIAIA - . BALmXE OFr PA-11L"m.1 Snc 19.5-3 (In millions of U.S. dollars) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Goods and services, net -62.1 -23.3 -69.6 -57.5 -26.3 -17.7 -69.7 -57.0 -66.0 Receipts 228.28. aLL L) 26Ld 306.L J 3h6.8 . 2.. Exports, f.o.b. 192.1 228.7 203.9 233.5 262.5 298.3 287.8 299.0 311.0 Travel 5.9 7 V. 7. " 12. , . 10 1.0 Factor income 2.7 2.6 1.8 2.5 3.2 L.0 L.0 4.0 .0 Other services 29.8 23.5 23.3 26.8 31.5 60.1 61.0 61.0 61.5 Payments 270.9 283.8 303.9 326.8 332.7 372.6 396.5 b16.0 638.5 Imrts,- f..b r 20. 226. 237.1 TO-101.-30. Freight, insurance 18.2 19.2 21.6 21.6 21.3 25.3 27.0 28.0 29.5 Factor payments 16.2 21.2 22.6 30.6 36.1 37.1 40.0 62.0 6.0 Other services 32.6 61.6 33.2 37.2 36.h 63.6 66.0 h4.5 65.0 Transers, n+ 7 9 0L 0. 11 . T. 0 17a0 19.0 Pn.n 210 Capital movenents 32.1 7.0 56.h 68.h 22.1 28.9 33.7 36.o 50.0 Private sector 26.8 6.9 36.6 33.h 15.7 13.6 15.3 13.0 2h.0 Diec inetmet ne 1 T? 1rr T3= -OT-7 Other long-term, net 12.8 16.5 13.6 13.7 13.9 20.7 Medium- and short-term, not 15.9 -23.2 1.7 -1.0 -17.2 -20.9 Errors and omissions -6.8 1.1 3.3 -2.1 -5.6 -L.7 Plsh14t. 6+ A o.i 18 0 T Al 7 it 12 7 1,.0 99 n1 :C: . Government bonds T.3 -0.9 11.5 -. -1.3 0.7 Placements (12.5) (6.5) (19.1) (13.1) (10.1) (15.5) Amortization (-8.2) (-7.6) (-7.6) (-9.1)(-ll.6)(-16.8) Development loans 2.5 0.8 7.6 7.0 8.7 12.0 DisbursPmentn (q.2) (2.6) (10.9) (10.8) (13.0) (9. 5) Amortizations (-2.7) (-3.6) (-3.5) (-3.8) (-4.3) (17.5) nedium-tern lans to banks, net 2.3 0.6 0.6 6.2 0.6 -0.6 0.5 2.0 2.0 Bank of Guatemala 2.3 -5 T . 7.7 1.0 -0.1 Commercial banks 0.2 1.0 -0.1 - -0.6 -0.1 Development institutions -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 Transactions with international organizations -1.8 -0.2 -1.5 -0.2 -1.6 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 Allocation of SDRs - - - - - 6.2 3.9 n.a. n.a. Net monetary movements(- incr. in reserves) 2.5 6.9 5.6 -2.3 -9.8 .-29.1 -3.0 1.0 -5.0 IMF position 3.8 5.3 10.0 -1.9 -2.3 -11.1 Bank of Guatemala -5.6 0.3 -3.5 -1.5 -8.8 --8.2 er4 U1a L3 1.e n.e7 I I I 0u Source: Bank of Guatemala, and IBRD Mission estimates 1971-73 Table 3.2: GUATEMALA: VALUE, VOLUME AND UNIT PRICE OF PRINCIPAL EXPORTS, 1961-70 (Value in millions of U.S. dollars, volume in millions of kilos, and unit price in U.S. dollars) Estimate 1961 1962 1963 196 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 TOTAL 114.0 119.0 15h.1 169.3 192.1 228.7 203.9 233.5 262.5 296.3 Agricultural exports (value) 97.5 9b.7 123.2 126.6 142.h 170.1 12h.9 142.7 157.2 163.L Coffee value 67.1 67.1 78.0 71.1 91.7 100.1 68.4 73.4 81.5 loo.6 volume 79.0 82.h 98.2 76.0 95.3 109.2 81.3 9h.3 99.6 95.1 unit price 0.89 0.81 0.79 0.93 0.96 0.92 0.84 0.78 0.82 1.06 Cotton value 10.2 15.2 2L.7 32.1 314.4 44.5 31.9 41.0 4o.1 27.2 volume 91.6 27.0 50.h 54.1 (0.6 92.8 67.1 77.9 84.2 57.7 unit price 0.52 0.56 0.h9 0.50 0.h9 0.L8 0.0 0.53 0.148 0.L7 Bananas value 13.9 9.5 11.5 11.8 14.9 10.5 9.2 14.1 18.9 19.7 volume 157.0 83.5 121.5 9h.", 311.1 109.2 --- 142.7 162.9 190.2 unit price 0.091 0.11 0.09' 0.13 0.13 0.10 -- .-.O u.L - UL- Other agricultural exports value 6.3 6.9 9.0 11.6 11.A 15.0 15.8 14.2 16.4 15.9 Mineral exports (value) 2 03 o.5 0.3 0.4 1.5 2.7 3.7 4.1 h.h volume 23.9 ll. 14 r.1. 3.14 1.r 12 11 1.)6 unit price 0.1h 0.2 0.10 0.08 0.12 0.18 0.15 0.32 0.26 0.23 1. a 'f, , , 4 0 ~ industrial exoorts (value) 1.1. 200.Ij.3.J.4t&.)L4.' . . 3 I5y. , 0 011 ' Meat value .8 3.8 . 1. 3.7 )1.6 5.3 8.0 8.6 12.0 1 7 volume 1.1 4.9 6.0 4.8 5.6 5.9 8.8 9.4 12.3 12.1 unit price 0.73 0.78 0.73 0.77 0.79 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.97 1.09 Sugar value 0.9 2.6 6.1 8.5 1.2 6.0 8.9 6.0 6.7 9.2 volume 7.0 3.0 L6.7 5h-9 31.6 52.3 6o-o L x 97.4 unit price 0.12 0.08 0.13 0.15 0.13- 0.11 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.16 Other industrial exports value 11.L 13.6 19.9 31.3 36.0 51.0 98.4 70.1 82.4 1o8.6 Source: Bank of Guatemala. Table 3.3: GUATEMALPA: SUMMAFLT OF INPORTS, 1961-70 (In milliors of U.S. dollars) 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 .1969 Est1te Total imports, c.i.f. l 6 36.0 171. 2021 221.0 248.1 259-0 262.2 291.9 Consumer goods _5-. _4.0, 5. 60.2 3 .5 67.1 74.0 77.9 78.7 87.4 Non-durables 32.2 30.9 37.9 37.2 49.5 43.7 51.1 52.5 54.2 60.2 Durable s 13.7 13.1 21.8 23.0 24.0 23.14 22.9 25.4 24.5 27.2 Raw materials 41. 42.2 593 78.3 78.1 93.6 96.7 93.9 108.2 Agriculture n.a. n.a. n.a. 16.5 17.4 14.7 15.6 14.6 n.a. n.a. Industry a'nd mining n.a. n.a. n.a. 42.8 60.9 63.4 78.0 82.1 n.a. n.a. Lubricants and fuels 12.5 11.8 13.9 15 .4 13.8 13.3 14.2 8.3 11.9 11.9 Construction materials 5.8 7.7 6.5 11.5 11.5 12.0 12.2 15.8 17.8 18.5 Capital goods 27.8 429.5, 17 42.9 46.0 49.6 57.9 57.3 61.3 Agriculture 5.8 6.o 6.1 7.3 7.8 6.9 5.5 6.8 5.5 5.7 Industry 16.1 18.2 21.1 30.1 26.5 29.1 32.5 37.2 38.3 42.9 Transport and conmunications 5.9 5.3 10.3 12.3 8.6 10.0 11.6 13.9 13.5 12.7 Unclassified 0.2 0.6 6.0 6.1 4.3 4.5 4.5 2.4 2.6 4.6 Source: Bank of Cuatemala. Table 3.4: GUATEMALA: TRADE WITH OTHER CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES, 1960-.70 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 (In millions of U.S. dollars) Exports, f.o.b. .98.7 13 29.6 ,7 50.9 57.7 70.9 83.8 102.5 El Salvador h.6 61 ~2 11.1 17.1 16 §ý7 ~ 3 2 .37.5 39.7 Honduras 0.4 1.3 1.7 3.5 5.4 6.6 7.2 9.h 12.7 17.1 27.8 Nicaragua -- 0.3 0.7 2.3 h.h 5.2 7.9 10.6 11.3 12.3 14.9 Costa Rica 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.4 2.7 4.3 7.3 9.0 -L4.4 16.9 20.2 Iiports, c.i.f. 7.6 8.8 11.1 1_ 2 31.5 33.8 h2.14 51. 65.0 El Salvador >.9 7.7 1 9.1 22. Ž 29.3 3 33.2 39.5 Honduras 0.9 1.2 3.0 2.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 5.h 7.1 6.0 7.1 Nicaragua -- -- 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.h 2.1 2.1 3.5 4.6 7.2 Costa Rica 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.4 2.8 3.9 4.3 5.3 8.0 7.5 11.2 Trade balance -2.7 - 0.3 -_ -2 -__ _.2 17.1 L.6 :21.5 32.4 37.5 (Trade with other Central American countries as percentage of total trade) Exports 4.2 7.5 7.2 11.2 17.5 18.6 22.3 28.3 30.4 31.9 34.4 Imports 6.1 6.2 h.8 11.5 13.0 -14.0 L5.3 17.0 19.1 19.6 22.3 (YearLy growth rates) Exports 73.5 2.h 98.9 71.1 20.6 42.6 13.4 22.9 18.2 22.3 Imports 15.8 26.1 78.4 32.8 19.8 7.3 :24.6 17.3 4.o 26.5 Source: Bank of Guatemala and SIECA. Table Lt.1: GUAYTE;ilRNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTjrIG AS 0F DBEr 31, 1970/ DG-bt Repayable in Forej gn Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Debt Outstandic- December 3l, .970 Source Disbursed Including only undisbursed TOTAL EXTER9AL P7BLIC DEET 7 Privately held dc-b 2 1 _62_376 Suppierså 03,632 Spain -3,15t United Sta5s >50 h76 Financi a' Tn st-Xc:Itutions~ 47Al2 b O Canada 5,000 5,000 Un itUe d St3 e 3281 .-i,6 -1 3,895 Privately p 'ced bonds 13,8L±9 13, 8.9 Loans from ir nt.ional organizations 3_2,933 50 336 I BRD 13,765 28,300 T r)D n,'0 BCE 13,811 16,312) Leans fr3m Goverr cs - United States 21,095 631Å Debt wi-th an or-gi,t or extended maturity of over one year. 2/ Central American Bank for Economic Integration. Source: IBRD Statistical Services Division, Economics Denartmpnt. Ma- 12, 1971.  'rpinr )[2. _7 OUTTDI l D S C D 31, 19 J 17 Debt Repayab1é nr orei u'rr (lIn thou sai r? U3. do~LlaP ELI UbTSI (bEGIN GF PER100 PAYME 41S ) uI t PERI'DD T r n .i ( AU T T YEAR t ZAT0 1,TEREST TUTAL T T L P- y T RPAL P J L IC DE13T 971 1 5I 15b 10 , 51 2 1 # 3 6 1 1972 142>6G4 15559 6'G27 21>586 1973 127'045 12;6a9 5:663 18>312 114 9 155>75u 5 J07 15>757 9 75 1 03.64 6.95 60 2545 j3 976 95>07 >454 3962 140'16 978 03p0,6 A> 11 3033> 3 6,715 979 79k637 3> 33 19 7bt804 3 ;93 2' 9 6:8 2 9b1 711 pV4 15 2 '' 1982 67>754 4 261 2>019 6s279 19b3 63 493 4'4 310 1 P 35,635 9e4 59A 164 3>743 1s '54 5-3 ,7 1965 55.440 1p633 1503u 1906 51>80)7 3J62o l>355 4 ' 946'179 3J727 1>211 44)r 19c8 44,451 3715 1p')57 2 919 40p736 3>776 9U3 4 1990 36>960 3>94 744 4>638 1991 33>066 4>024 576 1/ Inludes sc: . on al debt listeci in T le 0.1 prepared May 12 1971. with the cxr- on of the oilo,:ir. ich ror epn ent terms - not avai1Jlble: TOTALa $i5,613,000 "inac.i l instit on • 77p,0 I0n 1 r,iten o a able L.2: U 3 . T D ?U TU, 3317103 3 S C EUOTD ll 3. z DEü~:' T i'. Ia V 3,1 7 pn. -s æ of 6 LE ET 0u 51 (dEGIN uF PEH0 ) AYME NS DuNING PERIUU INCL.UDIrG ANUNTI" yEA R UNü1SURSEL /ATION INTETEST TUIAL PfRIVATELY-HELD UldT 1971 44,635 12#244 2,962 15>206 1972 32>391 10)' 029 2>250 12>278 1973 22>363 b>515 1>,99. e8214 7 154 4>770 1>227 5>997 1975 1 > 78 4.o236 66 5> .$103 1976 675'2 2.981 512 3H493 1977 3,662 2,233 264 2>497 1978 1,629 432 1979 1>197 432 84 517 197349 481 19i1 332 332 19 351 SUPPLIEr,S 971 3 6 21 179 1972 3>473 325 132 457 1973 3;149 491 224 715 1974 2>656 332 193 525 192>325 332 16 500 .1976 18993 332 143 475 77 1661 332 118 451 19 7 1,329 332 93 426 1979 997 332 401 1960 664 332 376 19d1 332 332 19 351 Table 4.2: GUI jYiJ,Å. iiTVA'1D iUTURE SET/IE PAYMENTS Oil EXTERIAL PUBLI,IC DiE3T OU?lTf!D IiCLUDlNG~ UiiDISBUiSED AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1970 Debt Repayable in Foreign Curreney (In thousands of U.S. dollars) __pa 3 of 6 L>EIi OUT$T (BEINd üP FRIUD)~ PAYMENTS DURING PERIDU INCLUDING AMORTIm El T l59U EDi , NTE T TTAiL PiV ATELY H ELD LÆEB1 1971 27#154 5>799 2P160 Iff 79 1972 21>355 4>41 1p753 6>11 1973 16>937 4>43d 1>381 5>818 1974 12>499 4p259 1>007 5>266 1975 6>240 3p733 680 4p413 1976 4>507 2p47b 358 2P835 1977 2>030 1>730 142 1p f72 1978 300 0 26 126 1979 200 100 16 116 19b0 100 100 5 105 PRIVATLY PLACEU HGN,JS 971 13 R4 1!>2 6 76A1 7* ( i p 1972 7,563 5.2b6 365 5*651 19n-, 2 12775 94 i.6A 1974 691 176 27 205 19/6 341 171 12 102 1917 171 171 4 175 OUTSTAII 5 IIj IOUiGD /< O : . 3'IG Debt, eay e in Foein Currcy*' 0 ULT OulST (eEGIN OF PEHR10) PAYMENTS O-IRYLG HERIUU) INCLUDING AMUKTI- YEA R UNI ISiURKS,E1 ZA rlj I TEST TOTAL 1971 50,014 952 1.,35 2i707 1973 47p374 2 190 2p757 4>955 1974 45p1(6 1>945 29666 4>611 1975 43.232 1.948 2.551 4.499 1976 41>263 1p993 2437 4 431 1977 39.290 2>029 2o317 4,346 1978 37.261 2>064 2.197 4261 1979 35.196 2>349 2>071 4p421 1960 32p847 2>409 1.931 4>340 1981 30>438 2.464 1>786 4P250 1982 27,974 2>524 1>637 4160 19b3 25s450 2s614 1F'465 4>099 1984 22.836 2>363 1o330 3-693 1985 20.473 2p253 1,192 3p445 1986 18220 2p24b 1o061 3.308 1987 15>973 2430d 927 3p274 19ö8 13.625 2o335 787 3#121 1989 11>291 2>396 645 3p041 1990 8p895 2>514 500 3>013 1991 6p381 2>644 348 2s991 1IBRD) 1971 28'300 175 876 1>051 1972 28 125 551 1o525 2>075 1973 27.575 581 1.654 23234 1974 26p995 620 10659 2p279 å975 26375 655 1,620 2>275 1976 25s720 700 1p581 2>281 1977 25.020 745 1.536 2>281 197d 24>275 790 1s490 2.230 1979 23:4'5 1p075 1sa38 2.513 1980 22p0 1>135 1371 2>506 1961 219275 1205 1)300 2,9505 1902 20:C7C 1.260 1,224250 417420 15 1.57 1965 15.96' 1>540 96.6 2,506 196 61442 164 u 2 n9 1987 12>7cZ 1.740 767 2.507 1969 9'19: 1>970 541 1907 2 Table 4.2: GUji1LA l ATED FUTUi: SECRVCE PAYMENTS ON EXTERN.AL PUBLIC DEBT OUiTTAbíDING IiOLUU:G UNTDISBURED AS OF DECEIBER 31, 1970 Debt Repayable in Foreit;n Currencv (Tn thouSndS of U.S. dollars) page 5 of 6 UtUT UUTST (BEGIN uF PERIOU) PAYMENTS DURING PERIO INCLUDING AMURTIP YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATIUN INTEREST TUTAI, LOANS FROM INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS ID B 1971 6268 652 321 974 1972 5p616 652 324 976 1973 4,964 652 286 938 1974 4>311 391 248 639 1975 3921 391 225 616 197 3530 391 202 593 1977 3p140 391 179 570 1978 2 749 391 156 547 1979 2,359 391 133 524 1980 if9 U 391 5&a- 1981 1>577 391 87 478 19ö2 1,187 391 65 1963 796 391 41 432 1964 406 301 18 319 1985 105 105 3 108 Et i 1971 15-446 125 63d 763 1972 15 321 486 742 1t226 1973 14'835 965 817- 1p783 1974 1370 934 760 4 1975 12>936 903 706 19609 1976 12>033 903 654 1>557 1977 11130 ö93 602 1p496 9884 551 435 1979 9>353 884 500 1>384 1980 ) 4 8Q 4 4 9 1 3 3 1961 7>585 d66 398 1>267 19b2 6717 853 349 1,202 19d3 Sö64 b53 300 1,153 19ö4 5>011 60u 255.6 1905 4>403 606 223 831 19ö6 3>795 60 i917 1967 3-1ö 608 159 767 19ö8 2>580 48b 129 614 19ö9 2>096 426 104 530 199U 1>670 424 82 506 1991 1r24 6 424 60 483 Table 4.2: GIUATEMAIA - ESTIMATED FIUR SERVI PAYME4NT3 MN EXidAL MUHLIC DEAT OUTSTANDIIXG I-IjDNG UNDISUkAEA 1 D0 BE1-,R 31, 1970 Dobt Repayuble in Foreign Currency (In thousaind of U.S. dollars) __________pa e 6 of 6 OEUT OUTST INCLUDIG AM UHRTI .C- A n u N., -T e Li. r, cC , 1 A T I n N. 1 N, T U. Lj L- U . 1 YER N'5UREU ZAIN 1 EETTUTAL LOANS FROM GVERNMENTS UNI7ED bTATES 1971 63>465 2>314 1>055 3P369 1972 61>151 3.8942 1>166 5>028 1973 57p309 3>937 1#207 5p144 1974 53>372 4>035 1114 5>149 1975 49p337 2' 384 1> 039 3-424 1976 46>953 1>480 1,013 2>492 1977 45>473 1p315 1>011 2>326 1978 44>156 915 966 1>901 1979 43-244 1>051 1>003 2>054 1980 42o192 1>051 709 1#761 19b1 41>141 1>361 418 1>778 19ö2 39#7d0 1#737 382 2>119 19d3 38>043 1>696 350 2p046 1984 36,347 1>380 324 1>704 19d5 34967 103ö0 311 1>691 1956 33>587 1>380 297 1>678 1987 32206 1>3 8 24 1>664 j9dö 30p626 1>380 271 1>651 9 9 C93 4åå 1 38R 257 1>63 1990 28:065 1>380 244. 1 624 926>65 1>380 231 1>611 Source: IBRD Statistical Services Division, Economics Department, May 12, 1971. Table !.3: UA TEMALA: PAST TRAiiSACTICNS ON EXTERNA1L PUBLIC DEBT. 1970 Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thcaur.s of U.S. dollarS) pa~ e of L Debt outotndLIre . . . Ga NO 0 T A L • 966 86523 56332 30191 22290 13?94 11635 3092 14750 1 967 97005 5E567 33433 505 34795 13. 1 3497 *7308 199 162251 94:c03 68146 3197 10902 186394 5206 24100 190 151557 94±92 573653 49774 39551 211601 64:. 30: 1971 176727 109139 67538 T0TAL PRlIVATELY MELD DECT 1966 37076 28275 5601 9733 9770 7851. 1725 9576 19 '7 30957 301.92 t76 2 32'06 23D46 950 06 1 193 2662 42 37 0425 187 17226 i1?79 3029 1410£27 199 59760 49665 10095 9190 6%.02 13D95 .34Z0 17C 190 55C57 42173 12384 22334 2D433 15513 3653 19 1683 1971 62376 5r2111 10265 SUP PLIES 1966 34148 3443 '"72• e 0 73 1967 3623 2903 722 340 772 11 9 9 23 27 374 - 1 305 753 121 2C9 299 203 63 3 912 96 1010 1*I 116 116 0 26 3156 - 1971 3632 5 3182 See footno te at end of Lable. Table >.3: GUATEMALA: PAST TRANSACTIONS ON EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT, 1970 Dobt RepayaJDle in Foreign Currency (In thousards of U.S. dollars) page 2 of )1 Tr -.cfoionu rrr p=riod Includin, Meaured.,ý Urdic- .7to, 2Dcro Fy t Year . 3 ut . rn- b,- d -~=on -t. 7tn VELY FtELD GE'2T rINAPNC 4AL INST TU TIONS 1966 18043 9247 C001 2315 3574 4290 520 4310 .967 16573 0530 6043 4706 4690 3c96 400 37 1963 181633 10132 3051. 1190 9933 3071 1 30 1969 27021 994 10027 919 6359 97 6370 23$0 0700 9 T 44 95 37312 7003 PRIVM ATELY-1PLACED GONDS 1966 15580 I5580 6196 6196 3017 1017 34 1967 1C759 13759 16500 1 500 5632 28 70C, 1963 1626 31698 633 7974 1994 960 3640 343373 1731 1013 1 9 22268 2220c 16 16 8434 1251 1971 133 9 13Q49 '!GT AL -IM, FOM VIT:ATIONAL ORaANIZATIOS 1966 17277 12171 5106 7937 2320 1992 666 2656 1967 23073 12500 10573 20529 5733 2442 633 3130 1968 41157 15796 25361 17603 7324 2471 703 c59 16291 2 47 2577 6921 2622 64 3 1970 56047 27746 2030 140 121 3 oo 1 1749 0750 1971 5036 32933 17953 Table L.3: GUATEMALA: PAST TRANSACTIONS ON EXTERIAL PUBLIC DEBT, 1970 Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousand of U.S. dolla-rs) 1ý1,-Ou, 3page 3 of )1 Db outtrd be@inv. of e riod Trano~cioic ctring priod earU udi.c ony burcid i tion Ivt rt. Intorc,Tm I BRD 1966 8807 3807 164 336 9 1967 7203 7203 15000 1015 67 329 1968 2C520 6539 13901 13300 3733 179'3 236 199 9 32066 C514 23552 r 50'7 13P0 53 923 1970 30226 11691 18535 00 2 J12 2738 S 2300 13765 135 1966 6757 3364 3393 3200 332 370 231 601 1967 94383 3827 5611 - 331 203 63 27 9 1968 8425 5167 3238 - 3C6 10>5 629 301 96 - 741,8 5601 P,47 - 73f 543 1 7 197 6906 5793 1113 202 633 347 9*5. 1971 6263 5357 <11 BCIE 1966 1713 1713 4737 1438 13 49 67 67 6432 1470 4962 5860 261'0 80 101 12212 4070 8142 - 469 246 64 251 699 1677' 6532 10245 2577 4170 439 250 69 197l 12915 10262 0653 1840 7906 4t37 590 5027 1971 1631i 13011 2507 Table 4.3: GUATEMALA: PAST TRANSACTIONS ON EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT, 1970 Debt Ppayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) page 4 of h bet ding Transactions dring period ~~nnin pe iod___ including Disburcd, Undis- Aut Isbuse- Pyr2nts Year uriis. o bursed z.ation ment Amort. Interest Total LOANS FROM GOVERNMENTS UNITED STATES 1966 32170 15886 16284 4620 1804 1815 701 2516 1967 34975 15875· 19100 6323 5511 1869 740 2609 1968 39428 19516 19912 8600 6103 1026 1002 2828 1969 46200 23791 22409 -3570 2659 2177 1082 3259 1970 40453 24273 16180 25100 1910 2087 1037 3124 1971 63465 24095 39370 1/ Debt with an original or extended maturity of over one year. Source: IBRD, Statistical Services Division, Economics Department, May 20, 1971, Table L.h: GUAYTMALA - EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1970u Debt Repayable in Local Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollars) Debt Outstanding December 31, 1970 Source Disbursed Including onv undisbursed fP)cPt, T-.rr D'KTT r9TnT.T(' Th1i'T 76 70.0011 T -ans -Pro,-- Irnte-rnati onal1 Organi zati ons 1J. 7 56.679 IDB 31,039 5L,028 BCIE 2,08 2,651 Loans from U.S. Government - Sncinl Propress Trust Fund 13.321 13,325 /1 Debt with an original or extended maturity of over one year. Source: IBRD, Statistical Service Division, Economics Department, May 12, 1971.  Table h.5: GUATlUA ESTIMATED Fu7n JR-EB1Le ?, D' T OUTSTANING DJD ING UNDISURW1D AS Oc W112,7;j 3-.,- Debt Repy,,ab le in Inca. Currncy (In thousands of U.S. dollars) utL T UUL I I (F.GIN UF P1R11,l) PAYmINTS tURING L. ERI U INCLUDIN(i AMUR T I yIAR UNUISUURSEU 1AT iUN INT FSi TU lAL TOTAL I xIHNAL PuoLIC U 1971 109004 1>176 996 2s '. 19(2 662 1>865 1>392 3-27? 1973 66,943 2>s14421 6 197464>501 2 7 1.666 97,31 9 4 ; 6 1 0 n> 6 1976 59993 13366 1p641 5,013 -18 kU I t,O - 19/8 52>245 3J0'I 1 1>456 4p856 9 u u 44 3> 420 i ji59 4,'7C 19b0 45)425 3>431 1>261 4,6 9 l 4 1, 9 3 . 164 1982 38p530 3457 ip65 4,523 i983 35>072 3456 61 4p423 1984 31 616 3471 t66 4,345 i9o5 2t i39 3'045 /7o 3i615 1986 25-094 3ip'59 C) 4 3, / 4 3 23073 9 3,670 1988 18p963 3>U64 >11 3,575 99 y5 -2 24 2 3p222 1990 13p105 2615 341 3,022 9 Y i 10>429 po'b 27o 29 ')55 Table L. ): uu.Y1n1AIJ - E ; i~ a2~p Dbt cb e yÖle in Local Ourency (In thou.sands of U . dlrs Jtt C, JU0 1) K'CLUI G 1 A i-< T YLAR UN uoSl- / 11s 1 j T EL. t- l I I AL InlJS FRO0M INT 1 ATrIO:*;AL oT0 7A:IZATIOS 1971 56>679 68o 644 1'324 1972 55999 1.379 1>054 2p432 19/3 549620 1 831 1#202 3p113 1974 m2 !6 72 Ift5 3 279 1975 50,86B 2>32u 1>417 3>737 1976 415äl9 2>7 1'374 4>01 1977 45,8 42 2p707 1>296 4>003 i, jå 3 ,3 c- ?0 4# 214 c 3 A925 1979 40>421 2>707 1p140 3>47 19i0 7,>720 >17 1#f62 3>!69 1961 $5>013 2>70/t 965 3>692 1962 i2>306 2>0i 90f 3>614 1983 .29.599 2>707 h29 3>536 1964 2 bp92 2>70i 751 >4 1985 2401d5 2p516 674 3190 1986 21,669 2>51( 60i 3>ii S 1967 19p153 2p516 5243 3>046 1988 16,635 2>494 155 2>949 1989 .14o141 2p34i5164 2>732 1990 1 1, 793 2>216 7.i7 2>533 1991 9576 2 216 -Ie 2o468 1971 50.j2 V 680 i15 1>195 19y2 5 3> 34 1>321 15 2> 236 19/3 5290 2/ - 1719 * 4 7 2 .96 66 19(4 50p308 1p79b 1>229 3>027 1975 48,510 2>186 1s295 3;iib i9(6 46p324 2>57 3 1>259 3>632 1977 43> ?51 2>573 1,16 3 /61 1978 i41117ö 2p573 1p117 .3p690 1979 38,605 2 573 1, 46 3#620 1960 36,032 2>573 v 76 3>549 1961 33>459 2>573 905 3>47 1962 30>86 2>513 634 3>407 1983 26>313 2>573 f63 3>336 1904 25'?39 2,573 692 3>265 19h5 23' 166 2> 381 623 3'UU' 196 0 ?- 5 2 31 55/ 2 938 19b7 12361 4191 2>012 1 986 16>¤2 2_ 3- 4252> 0 1969 1 326 22V 359 2>&07 1'ûY!9 2>11_ 2v) 2' 3 ) 1 99 9 77211 3 2 3 3 Table .: GAE A- T D U S . ¯LT Debt Repayale En Loal Currency (In thousands of US. dollars) ______ ______________________pace 3 of' b UEHT CUTSI (tE(JIN Ur FERI00) PAYMENTS u'iNG PiRIUUD INCLUDIN(G AMUFRTlu YEAR UNDi$U8URSEu ZAIION iNTf'ST TIUTAL Ln z,O INT ENA k TT n AR2Z T IA 6cIE 1971 2,651 v 130 130 1972 2,651 58 138 196 1973 2,593 112 135 2417 1974 2P4d1 123 129 25? 1975 2p358 134 122 256 1976 2>224 134 115 249 1977 2,090 134 1083 242 1978 1,956 101 235 1979 1822 134 94 1900 1'659 134 7 2 1961 1>555 134 80 214 1982 1,C21 134 73 207 1 3 1,28/ 134 66. 200 1984 1I 15 13" i4 59 19 1985 1> 019 35 5 7 19k J4 13 4 1987 748 137 37 174 9 8 611 11 3 l1 lii 1989 49i 100 25 125 I 990 39n i0 n 2l 12 * L7 V (' 1 1 ] C t 1991 299 100 14 114 Table L .5: CGUATEMAkLA - ESTINLATmED FUTUF: ; SERVIC- PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEET 'UTSTA D 1' INClUDI UNDISiiU~~TcRSEDc''~ AS Ofl DECE' E 31 197 JU )1J u1 ' L JK 1-) U !J -L, 1 IJL UUL7Ufl-, (In thousands of U.S. dollars) p a of 4 nd i.RT LIIIT ST (HLGIN UF PEPIOJU) PAYMENT5 UURING PERIUU 1NCEUtJINU AMUR!1I YE AR UND ISHURSE RA 1 I(N INTEREST TU TAL 1 RAU 170ItM iG\./) RNM'1J NT S UNITED STATES SOCIAL PRGRESS TRUST FUND 1971 - j23t 496 352 648 1972 12'P29 507 33 1973 12>323 612 324 936 1914 111011 626 '0r 1975 11>)086 642 291 9-32 1916 109444 659 2 932 1977 9# 786 676 56 931 197ö 9p110 694 237 931 1979 8>417 713 21d 931 1980 7o704 (31 199 930 1981 6,9/4 751 1/9 930 1982 6,223 750 159 909 1963 o 413 749 13 7 1984 4o724 770 1 / 07 1985 3>954 529 95 624 1986 3>425 542 Ö2 624 1987 2,8b3 555 69 624 1988 2#326 57 5.5 625 1989 1p758 446 42 48M 1990 11 312 459 30 4d 1991 853 469 1ö 4&7 1/ Includes service on all debt listed in Table 4.h prepared May 12, 1971. Source: IBRD Statistical Services Division, Economics Department, May 12, 1971. Table 4.6: GUATEMALA - PAST TRANSACTIONS 0N EWTERiAL PUBLIC DEBT 1966 - 70 1 Debt Repayable in Local Currency (In tosm o£ U.S. 'las paIge icf 2 Vbt out-3- .Inbio Year urdir. only bnd i.on -rt Aet. Intcr:3t Total GRAND.TOTAL 1966 13559 4846 B713 7220 2045 267 170 437 1967 20562 6674 133u8 9773 4137 42n 263 7o0 1960 29912 10393 19519 7110 4399 403 421 904 1969 36546 14309 22239 19e00 626, 553 511 1094 1970 54994 20019 34975 15953 10693 9t17 745 *1692 1971 70004 2976 4,0236 TOTAL LOANS FROMI INTERNATIONAL ORG1TANIONS 1966 15t9 400 1069 4200 400 167 34 201 1967 5632 843 4709 9773 840 110 109 219 1960 15296 1574 13722 7118 2060 144 101 325 1969 22269 3490 18779 19000 4422 107 267 454 1970 4102 7725 33357 156o 9006 366 531 897 1971 56679 16447 40239 1966 1549 480 1069 4200 400 167 314 201 1967 5632 843 4789 0700 040 110 108. 218 1963 14223 1574 12649. 6000 1660 144 1C1 325 1969 20079 3090 16939 19000 3398 107 267 454 197( 3C392 6301 32091 155o0 7602 366 461 027 1971 5402B 14039 30909 'C fotno a2 ft () of table T:,ble ).6: GUATEMALA - PASI' TRKNSACTIONS ON EXTERAL PUBLIC DBT lY - 70 Debt Repayable in Local Cu-rrency (In thousards of U.S. dollars) pa=e 2 of 2 ~L5t outstanding beging of M riod, Tnctione during period Includling i cd UnI.s- atho^r- :DInburco- Pc. ::nts Yrar unly burrcd I-tion trt frort. Tntercct Total LO\NS FAlPr INTERNNTION4L A 1 6 7 • •1073 -S 96 1073 • 1073 1118 0 2190 t00 1790 524 12190 924 1266 460 14 70 70 2651 2408 243 LOANS FRCM GOVERN"ENTS _ Ui JO0CILJ., tDCY TRTGFN 1966 12010 ý366 764C 3n20 1565 100 136 236 067. 14930 5031 9099 3297 310 . 79 009 6 4616 3019 r797 2339 339 70 57 1969 14279 10419 3460 i. 1,2 366 27464 1971 13912 12294 1610 ¶I167 7 3325 13321 4 /_D_ Dc c:t ol or xtended n:Our. y of Over Onc year. Source: IBRD Statistical Services Division, Economics Department, May 28, 1971 T,able Kl GUA TEMA LA: SUlLMA1RY OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENP UPERATI UNS, 1965-73 (In millions of quetzales) Est.-Projecions _1965 1966 1967 1966 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Current revenue 116.1 120.6 126.0 136.3 169.7 165.2 176.5 1b6.5 196.( Current expenditure 96.d 109.6 11.5 118.8 129.3 167.6 164.2 169.9 15d.2 Current surplus 22.0 11.0 5.5 17.5 20.6 17.! 32.3 34.6 35.6 Capital receipts 1.1 1.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 Investment expenditure 3h.1 26.6 29. 25.6 30.0 36.2 60.2 67.0 59.0 Direct 2. 26 16. .G 1C l.2 3.3 27.5 2¯¯ _ 5. (5.o Transfers 10.2 9.7 9.8 7.6 6.7 6.7 13.3 12 . 1.0 Surplus or deficit -11.7 -16.3 -22.1 - -.9 - 7.9 -16.0 - 6.9 -ll.6 -22.2 External financing, net 3.6 - 2.3 16.7 6.8 12.0 17.8 9.0 5.5 11.0 Disbursements 13.7 16.0 27.0 21.1 2 2 20.0 1S0 20.0 (of which program bcrrowing) (-) (10.0) (3.0) (12 .0) (10.0) (15.0) (6.0) (-) (-) Amortization 10.3 16.6 12.3 16.6 13.6 10.7 11.0 10.. (of ihich program borrowing) (5.7) (11.5) (6.2) (10.d) (9.5) (6.7) (7.0) (6.9) (9.0) Domestic financing, net 6.3 16.6 7.6 - o.9 - 6.6 - .1.8 - 2.1 5.9 8.0 Bank of Guatemala, net - 0¯6 11.0 1.9 -3.0 .9 -c 3.1 ) Commercial banks, net - 2.9 7.2 - 3.0 - 0.3 - 1.9 1.2 ) - 3.2 6.0 6.0 Developnent institutions, net - o.5 - 0.6 0.1 - 1.0 - 0.1 Floa'ting debt - - 6.6 1.1 3.5 - 1.5 10.6 ) 1.1 - 0.1 2.0 Other, residual 11.9 2.9 6.3 - 1.1 - 6.1 -10.6 ) Gap to be financed - - - - - - - - S ouirce: Minis try of Finance and IBRD MI ssio n estimates; 171-7 . Table 5.2: GUATEMALA: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE BY MATAR FUCITONPTTA c6 loAA_7 TIn mil-lions of qezls 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 193 TOTAL INVESTMENT 25.6 30.0 34.2 40.2 47.0 59.0 Direct investment 16.2 23.3 27.5 26.9 35.0 45.0 Economic services 13.7 18.0 21.8 18.3 17.0 23.0 Agriculture 1.6 4. .7 4.0 3.0 7.0 Transport 11.4 13.4 13.4 12.7 14.0 16.0 Communications 0.7 0.5 0.0 . ---- ---- Other ---- ---- 1.9 0.5 ---- ---- Social services 4.1 4.o 3.2 3.6 14.5 19.0 Education 1.0 1.7 1.1 1.0 7.5 9.0 Hearn 3.1 3.1 2.1 2.5 6.5 10.0 Other ---- ---- 0.1 0. General services 0.4 0.5 2.5 5.0 3.5 3.0 Transfers 7.4 6.7 6.7 13.3 12 0 14.0 Agriculture 1.0 1.5 1.7 10.0 5.1 7.0 Housing 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.d 1.0 Power 3.0 3.1 2.5 1.0 2.4 3.0 Other 2.8 1.8 2.0 1.3 2.7 3.0 Total investment as percentage of GDP 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.6 Source: Ministry of Finance, and IBRD Mission estimates,1971-73. Table 5.3: GUATDIALA: UNTRAL GuVERNMENT UURENT EX-rNUUEB IM RA FUNCTION, 1968 -73 (in millions of quetzales) Rev. Actual Budget Est. Projection 1968 1969 1970 1971 1971 1972 1973 TOTAL 11. 1-29-3 .L7.8 1111 -1 1LI), 2 9 Z Economic Services 15.2 17.2 18.0 22.6 19.5 18.9 20.5 Agriculture 2.7 3.0 3.7 7 .5 -7.5 - Transport 6.9 8.0 7.3 8.1 8.0 8.4 9.0 Communications 4.1 4.2 4. 4.7 4.5 2.0 2.0 Other 1.5 2.0 2.6 3.9 3.0 3.5 4.0 Social Services 50.9 57.5 61.1 59.6 65.2 67.6 70.7 Education 2 29.3 3 7 31. 32.7 W Health 13.9 17.4 19.7 20.1 21.0 22.0 23.0 Social Welfare 8.2 7.0 8.3 10.7 9.7 10.1 10.2 Other 2.2 5.8 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 General Services 51.9 5L.1 68.2 57.6 59.0 62.L 66.0 General Admin. 17.9 1 T T 2h.0 21.0 23.0 25.0 Defense & Police 2h.3 2L.h 37.3 20.h .25.0 25.5 26.0 Justice 2.5 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.9 .0 Interest 7.5 7.7 8.0 9.5 9.5 10.0 11.0 Unclassified 0.5 0.5 0. 1.2 0. 1-7 1-0 Source: Ministry of Finance, and IBRD Mission estimates, 1971-73. Table 5.h: GUATEMALA: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT REVENUE, 1968-73 (In millions of quetzales) Rev. Budget Est. Projection 19 169 17 171 19071 19n72 n197,3 TAX REVENUE 122.9 13h.h 147.9 154.2 158.5 168.9 176.8 Direct Taxes 22.1 22.1 . 2 20.0 Income Tax 16.0 167 17.7 8.1 20.5 22.3 23.8 (Personal) ( .7) .)(b3 .)(h8 .)(58 (Company) (12.3) (12.6) (14.4) (13.8) (15.7) (17.0) (18.0) Property Tax 1 . 6.0 6.7 6.0 6.0 Indirect Taxes 100.8 112.3 123.2 129.4 132.0 139.7 146.8 Foreign Trade 3.- 39.9 -6 .1I :.,2 3. 56)u.i Export duty . 63 7 8.7 9.3 9.3 9.5 (Cf ee4 .4) (5.9) (3.3) ( .2) ( u.9) ( 8.9) (k .9 Import duty 26.1 29.5 32.7 34.5 36.3 38.5 40.6 (S)an José Protocol) (D.5 ( u.7 ( 1 6.9 ( 9.) ( u.2) ( U.7 ( 9.2)j Unallocated 3.5 4.1 4.7 5.2 5.0 5.5 6.0 Domestic Transactions 66.h 72.4 77.1 81.0 81.41 86.4 90.9 Stamp Tax 30.6 32.8 35. 2. 37.8 U0.7 -42.7 Petroleum products 9.8 10.9 11.5 12.0 11.5 11.8 12.0 Tobacco 5.1 6.4 6.6 6.1 7.0 7.5 8.0 Alcohol 15.1 15.7 16.4 16.7 17.5 18.14 19.5 Other 5.8 6.6 7.0 7.5 7.6 8.0 8.7 NON-TAX REVENUE 13.4 15.3 17.3 19.4 1o.o n6.5 17.0 Services 7.9 7.2 -.7 9.7 10.0 7 8.0 (Telecommunications) ( 3.0) ( 3.1) ( 3.5) ( 3.8) ( 3.8) () (-- Transfers 3.1 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.0 3.0 (GUATEL) ( 0.7) ( 0.5) ( 0.7) ( 0.1) ( 0.) ( .0) ( 1.) (RPS)( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Other 2.4 5.2 6.2 7.4 5.7 6.0 6.0 TOTAL CURRENT REVENUE 136.3 149.7 165.2 173.6 16.5 184.5 194.0 Source: Ministry of Finance, and IBRD Mission estimates, 1971-73. Table 6.1 GUATEMALA: SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM, 1966-70 (In millions of quetzales) Page 1 of b End of Period jun.e 1966 1967 1960 1969 1970 1972 1971 I. Bank of Guatemala International reserves, net 53.0 h 6.1: o c A 0 i0 .3 07 Gold and foreign assets ,7 7 01. 93 92.7 Net IMF position - 5.3 -15.3 -13.! -11.1 -- - d.1 -- Holdings of SDRs -- -- -- -- 2.0 1.2 7.3 Short-term liabilitics - 2.h - 3.7 -2.2 - 2.3 - 3.2 - 3.0 -2.6 Domestic assets 82.5 93.0 97.h 101.6 100.3 79.6 69.6 Credit to Central Government, net 3.2 39.9 36.69 -2. 3 97 37T. 00 Credit >>.9 52.0 6.3 55.1 5. >7. . Deposits -17.7 -12.1 - 9.h -12.3 -16.1 -20.9 -27.3 Credit to rest of public sector, net -13.4 - 9.7 - 5.2 - L.6 - 5.2 - 6.1 - 7.L Credit 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.6 0.h 1.0 0.L Deposits -14.0 -10.h -5.L - 5.2 - 6.2 - 7.1 - 7.6 edi t tocmecabak-. 01. Q - In I, 00 - I r, r From domestic resources 14.7 16.0 1.3 11.3 17.8 5.3 11.0 From foreign resources 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.3 6.7 6.t 6.3 Bank securities 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.? 0.2 Credit to development institutions 19.3 23.8 27.L, 27.1 26.2 23.1 1L.0 1From domes+i rescurces 11 l 1.6 15.7 1L.1 1 n3. 2.3 From foreign resources 5.7 7.5 11.2 12. 12.0 12.3 11.C Securities 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Official capital and reserves - 9.8 -10.3 -10.3 -10.3 -10.3 -10.3 -10.3 Subscriptions to international agencies 10.2 10.8 13.2 lb.9 15.L 15.h 15.9 Denosits of international aeencies - 3.8 - 2.9 - .1 - - b.9 - b.2 - Allocation of SDRs -- -- -- -- - L.7 5.3 5.3 Unclassified assets, net. 18.2 17.6 17.11 17.3 18.6 16.1 25.1 Assets 20.1 20.2 10.3 10.3 19.2 10.L ZO.C Liabilities -1.9 -2.6 -0.9 -1.0 -0.6 -2.0 -1. Foreign liabilities (medium and long-term) 15.6 26.2 20.6 21.6 21.5 22.1 20.6 Liabilities to banks 3 8.8 1:)'n. ~ 00C r n 1 r2. 7 Commercial banks T. 7 1.7 7. Y5 77.9 55.7 Cash in vaults 4.2 4.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.8 7.6 Reserve deposits 31.7 3h.0 31.2 41.0 53.3 i3.0 L6.o Foreign exchange deposits 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Develonent ins+itutnn- 9.8 1.9 1.A 1.r 2.1 9.3 2.0 Cash in vaults 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.L 0.1 0.2 Reserve deposits 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.8 Sinking fund deposits 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 o.6 -- Currency in circulation 81.1 82.L 83.L 90.9 L6.1 89.3 88.8 Table 6.1 GUATEMALA: SUMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM, 1966-71 (In millions of quetzales) Page 2 of 4 End of Period June 196U 1967 196 1969 1970 1970 1971 II. Commercial Banks International reserves, net 12.2 -11. .-11.b -13.3 - 3.8 - 9.7 - 4.7 Foreign assets 2.1 2.7 3.3 ~¯ -. 3.9 4.9 ¯73 Short-term liabilities -14.3 -1>4.1 -15.1 -17.9 - 7.7 -14.6 - 8.5 Claims on Bank of Guatemala 37.5 h0.2 42.1 49.0 61.3 52.1 59.0 Cash in vaults 77 ~7 7. ~ 6. ~77 Foreign exchange deposits 32.9 34.9 38.6 41.5 53.8 0.1 51.3 Other deposits 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 45.3 0.1 Domestic assets 175.7 190.3 215.1 233.3 23b.2 29.3 263.8 Credit to Central Government 111 . 9.3 ~ 7 "~ -1. ¯26 Credit to rest of public sector, net - 1.0 - 2.8 - 0.9 - 2.0 - 1.4 0.6 - 1.6 Credit 1.3 0.L 3.0 1.b 2.6 8.6 3.8 Deposits - 1.8 - 2.1 - 2.6 - 2.5 - 2.6 - 2.1 - 0.8 Mortgage bondsID '.5 - 1.1 - 1.3 - 1.3 - 1.4 - 1.3 - 1.4 Credit to private sector 155.b 173.5 193.9 210.5 218.1 206.2 217. Official capital - 8.3 - 9.9 -10.4 -10.7 -11.0 -10.5 -lC.9 Unclassified assets, net 18.6 21.L 23.2 28.2 24.o 37.2 29.5 Assets 30.b 33.5 35.7 1l.2 26.8 51.7 6.9 Liabilities -12.2 -12.1 -12.5 -13.0 -12.8 -16.5 -17.4 Foreign liabilities (medium and long-term) 2.h 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.0 Liabilities to Bank of Guatemala 23.6 25.5 23.b 20.2 16.5 13.9 8.3 Liabilities to private sector 175.1 191.3 219.6 246.9 277.8 276.1 307.8 Sight deposits ~58~ 61¯2 675.5 ¯ .~9 77.3 ~79.7 Time deposits 32.3 33.3 37.3 38.5 40.8 12.3 11.9 Savings deposits 63.8 75.1 88.d 109.6 130.0 126.5 15.6 Foreign exchange deposits 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 securities 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 Cnpital and reserves 19.3 20.0 26.6 29.3 30.9 29.1 30.7 Table 6.1-: GUATEMALA: SUMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTýX, 1966-71 (In millions of quetzales) Page 3 of 6 End of Period June 1966 1967l1968-1969 1970 1970 1971 III. Development Institutions International reserves, net 0.1 0.2 - 0.5 - 0.3 - - 0.6 - Foreign assets 0.1 0.3 0.2 ~~~-3 ~~~3 0.2 0.1 Short-term liabilities - 0.1 - 0.7 - c).6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 Claims On Bank of Guatemala 2.0 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.6 Cash in vaults 0¯2 ¯¯ ~ ~T 0~3 ¯ 0.-2 Deposits 1.8 1.2 1.3 0.8 1.2 1. 2... Domestic assets 24.0 29.0 33.1 3i.6 36.1 30.8 20.9 Credit to Central Government, net 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 Credit 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.1 1,0 - - Credit to rest of public sector, net - 0.8 - 0.5 - 0.7 - C).8 - 1.0 - 1.0 - 0.6 Credit 0.3 - 0.1 - - - - Deposits - 0.5 - 0.1 0.1 - 0.2 - 0.2 - 0.3 - C.1 Mortgage bonds - 0.6 -0.6 - 0.7 - 0.6 - 0,8 -0.7 - 0.7 Credit to private sector 22.6 25.9 25.3 26.6 23.6 22.6 9.2 Official capital -10.6 - 9.5 - 9.1 - 8.6 - 7.3 - B.9 - o.) Unclassified assets, net 12.5 13.0 17.5 18.5 17,8 17.6 12.2 Assets 19.6 20.1 26.8 25.8 25.7 25.0 16.0 Liabilities -7.1 - 7.1 -7.3 - 7.3 - 7.9 - 7.6 - 1. Foreign liabilities (medium and long-term) 1.6 1.5 1.3 1L.1 0.9 1.0 0.0 Liabilities to Bank of Guatemala 20.0 23.5 27.8 27.2 26.7 23.8 16.6 Liabilities to private sector 6.5 5.7 5.2 7.2 8.0 7.6 0i Sight deposits 1~ 1.9 ~ 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.Y Time deposits 0.6 1.1 0.7 2.0 1.0 1.2 1.9 Savings deposits 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.5 6.3 3 Securities - - - - 0.1 Table 6.1 : GUATEMALA: SUMMARY ACCOUJNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM, 1966-71 (In millions of quetzales) Page h of 4 End of Period June 1_97F91961967 199 1970 1970 1971 IV. Banking System International reserves, net h0.9 35.2 37.5 47.3 76.4 73.8 92.7 Gold and foreign assets 32¯9 ~ 89 79.3 ýb7 9b.8 Š¯.~ Net IMF position - 5.3 -15.3 -13.4 -11.1 - - 8.1 . - Holdings of SDRs - - - - 2.0 1.2 7.3 Short-tem liabilities -16,7 -18.0 -18.0 -20.8 -11.3 -18.1 -11.1 Domestic assets 23..4 26b.2 294.7 322.3 329.3 323.9 335.3 Credit to Central Government, net LT, T ~.1 T6.3 ~51.3 >9.2 53.8 ¯ .8 Credit 67,1 60.2 55.7 63.6 65.3 7h1.7 82.1 Dposi ts -17.7 -12.1 - 9. -12.3 -16.1 -20.9 -27.3 Credit to rest of public sector, net -15.4 -13.0 - 6.7 - 7.5 - 2.8 - 6.6 - 6.6 Credit 2.1 1.1 3.3 2.3 3.0 5.0 .3 Dep(si ts -16.3 -12.6 - 8.1 - 7.9 - 9.9 - 9.5 - 8.7 Mcrtgage bonds - 1.1 - 1.5 - 1.4 - 1.9 - 2.1 - 2.1 - 2.2 Credit to private sector 178.1 199.8 219.1 234.9 2h1.8 228.6 226.7 Official capital and reserves -28.5 -29.6 -29.9 -29.6 -28.6 -29.7 -21.6 Subscriptions to international agencies 10.2 10.8 13.2 14.9 15.8 15.8 .15.9 Allocation of SDRs - - - - - .2 - L.2 - 8.1 Deposits of international agencies - 3.8 - 2.9 - 5.1 - 5.8 - L.9 - 5.3 - 5.3 Unclassified assets, net b49.4 52.0 57.4 68.0 60.4 70.9 67.1 Assets 70.6 73.8 78.8 85.3 81.6 95.1 87.6 Liabilities -21.2 -21.8 -20.8 -21.3 -21 2 -2h.2 -20.5 Interbank float - - 0.5 - 0.2 - 0.3 8.8W 1.0 12.41/ Foreign liabilities (medium and long-tenn) 19.6 20.0 28.2 2h1.6 28.2 2>.8 23.h Liabilities to private sector 260.7 279.8 308.2 3>45.0 381.5 372.9 h0>.6 Girrency in circulation bl.1 83 9T0.9 ~9.l E1.3 ~= Sight deposits .59.6 63.1 67.4 70.2 76.8 79.3 81.3 Time depos:its 32.7 34.h 3b.0 40.5 42.6 43.6 L3.7 Savings deposits 65.9 77.8 91.7 113.1 13.3 130.8 159.0 Foreign exchange deposits 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Securities 2.1 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 Capital and reserves 19.2 20.0 26.6 29.3 30.8 29.1 30.7 1/ Includes liabilities of the Banco de Comercio to the Bank of Guatemala. Source: Ban< of Guatemala and IMF. Table 6.2: GUATEM4LA: SFKTOR COMPOSITION OF CREDIT TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR, 1961-70 (In millions of quetzales) ----- Estimate 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 TOTAL 77 825 9 104.8 103.8 ;L04.6 118.0 13,.1 164.8 168.4 Agriculture 33.4 35.4 39.4 41.5 39.8 36.5 38.4 40.5 44.5 44.4 Livestock 3.2 5.8 5.5 8.5 7.6 8.0 10.3 12.4 12.4 11.7 Forestry and Fisheries 1.0 2.3 1.6 1.0 1.3 0.9 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.6 Manufacturing 7.1 9.1 16.4 17.7 17.9 19.4 28.2 32.0 44.6 44.6 Construction 3.1 3.5 3.9 5.1 6.6 8.4 8.2 10.6 14.4 16.3 Commerce 18.4 17.1 16.5 17.8 18.8 20.2 18.9 24.5 26.8 30.1 Services 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 2.3 3.5 3.3 Consumption 1.6 1.8 2.2 4.9 2.4 2.6 3.2 4.3 5.6 5.1 Other / 5.4 7.0 8.4 6.7 8.4 7.6 7.3 9.9 12.3 12.3 / ining, transportation and unclassified. Source: Bank of Guatemala.