Thailand - Current economic position and prospects (Vol. 1 of 2) : Main report

RESTRICTED Report No. FE- 50a This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION JRRENT ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF THAILAND (VOLUME I) MAIN REPORT Sentember 25- 196s Far East Department CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit - baht U. S. $1 = E20.84 S1 = U.S. $0. 048 I m114 TT C &Ao n0 Table of Contents Chapter Page No. Basic Data Sunmary and Conclusions ......................... i I. The Social and Political Framework .............. 1 II. Recent Economic Performance ..................... 2 Cutput 2.................................*.. 2 Tncomp. Eynnditir and Snvings -- 2 External Finance ........................... 3 Tntrnal Finance C5 TTT. The Main nnonr.Tnent. Prblemz qnd the Publie Development Effort ..................... 7 The Demographic Outlook........... 7 World Market Outlook for Exports ............. 8 rMe Tw eve1@A E-C-J-Jncyar 0-1 T_wrest+-w O & 4JV J _L Ll"4 IL±.~L tL.L ~ LJ4 J.L& W[iLe LAt a *~0 The Public Sector Development Effort ....... 10 4uis Lc-our naens ..********.. **** ** AU The Major Sector Programs . 12 Agruicut ****0v0*************************eo 12 Manufacturing . ..................... 13 Transport and Communications ......1......4... 16 RoadsQ . *****.*********** **oo 1 Telecommunications ..................... 16 Education and Health ....................... 10 Water, Drainage and Sewerage ................. 17 Summary ....0.0.0. ...................... 17 IV. Prospects for Output and Income ................ 20 Agriculture .................................. 20 Rice . . . . . . . , . . . . . . ........... 20 Other Crops ..... ................ 21 Livestock, Forestry & Fishing ................ 22 Mining ....................................... 23 Manufacturing ............. .............0 23 Other Sectors and Overall Output ..........10 24 V. Financing Development ........................... 26 The Overall Pattern of Expenditure and Finance ............................0.. 26 Financing Public Sector Development ......... 27 The Central Government ....................... 27 State Enterprises ............................ 29 Local Governments ......................... 29 Foreign Financing ................... .. 30 Bank Credit, Exchange Reserves and New Taxes 0 31 Financing Private Investment and the Over-all Monetarv Balance .... ... ..-----. 2 External Finance ............. ....... 33 STATISTICAL ANNEX BASIC DATA Arp, cWi-.nna sn_ km. (2no-nnn sn- Ydlosl Population: total 3an 1,411,4, i1A (in 1964) atb converted at the is probably an underestimate, Growth rate in output 7.00 p.a. 1959/61 - 1962/64 Growth rate in export volume 7.6% p.a, 1959/61 - 1962/64 Rate of savings: early fifties 10.2% 1952-1954 recent years 17. Lyo>oL0 GNP by Industrial origin (1962 15Y 1903 19 prices) (billion baht) _Z 67.0 779 % distribution Agriculture ho 35 36 Manuf, Mining & Construction 1b 19 19 All other 42 46 45 100 100 100 Expenditure Pattern 1957 1963 196 distributio Consumption Public 10.0 10.0 10.3 Private 74.5 73.0 71.3 Fixed Investment Publc 4.7 7.0 7.1 Private 1/ 10.7 12.5 11.5 Change in stocks 1.8 0.9 1.,4 Current Defici- -1.7 - 3.4 1. 100.0 10010 100.0 Exports (1962 prices) Value (Billion Baht) 7.8 9.7 12,3 % distribution Rice 52 37 39 Rubber 19 21 19 Corn 1 8 10 Tin 8 8 6 Kenaf & Tapioca 2 8 9 All other 18 18 17 100 100 100 1/ After adjustment to exclude repair and maintenance. Cuent-r.a.l Go',verninentU Budg'e~f ., nt t.Ar (Billonbaht) Revenue 5.08 8.52 9:47 11100 Txp nu. Louj'e o J. .Uo o 11 syun Deficit (adjusted) -o.44 -0.33 -055 -0.10 Financed by: Non inflationary sources: Uou7 o.s Uo47 0.80 Inflationary borrowings: 0.37 -0.12 0.08 -0.70 Money Supply (Billion Baht) 8.0 11.9 12.9 1208 Net Foreign Assets (Million U.S.$) 321 540 609 642 % Imports (with invisibles) 70% 80% 83% 87%/ (without i ) 78 88 91 963 -' Public External Debt (Million U.S. $) 152 309 (310) 343/ 1/ End July 1965 2/ % of 19614 inport 3/ End June 1965 * April Summary and Conclusions In 1963 and 1964, real output and incomes in Thailand rose by 95% annually, bringing the average growth rate since 1959-60 to about 7%, as compared with one of 5% or less in the decade of the 1950s. A major factor in this acceleration has been a remarkable growth in the volume of exports, led by rice, maize, kenaf and tapioca, In 1964, alone total exports receipts rose 27% 2. This new export level can probably be maintained and increased moderately over the next few years, However, the growth rate will almost certainly slow down considerably because of probable dec]lJ.ncs in export prices, mainly in rubber and tin, and because of supply limit.ations in the case of rice and corn. This is likely to lead to a slower growth in real income than in the past five years, To ensure a recovery of the overall Prowth rate in the loner-run will reonire further increases in the development efforto 3. Impressive increases have been achieved in investment and savings over the Past five ver. and furt.her inr-nsn mit.p nonsrble Late in 1963, the Government approved a Three Year Development Plan for 1Q96i-AA %iCh ca1leor -ta 70f -1i--nc An~ niilnle,lA 'Ov the 1961-63 perioda Actual ou-tlays in 196 and 1965 indicate there will 'h M .Q11 1 ^f' M-r-.61r 99CI _-P 01 - _x,,4' slow 4" preparation and implementation. Significant progress has been made along achieve even more moderate increasesa The most that, seems feasible on U hnical CILU CL1"JLL.U-VLW g1-UUILLO UL, jJ.LUOU11U WVJULLL. UU d1i LL1.Lt:CO U. around 50% over the 1964-65 average of $5.0 billion by 1970. Even this is by no means urIn, but it does seem within the bounds of posSibli.ty if a concerted effort is made to improve further the administration of development and to make greater use of outside consultants and contractorsa 4. There has been a substantial rise in foreign capital inflow in the past several years, Together with the increased savings rate, this has Led to steady increases in exchange reserves - from $0y million at tne end of 19!9 - to $640 million by mid 1965, The public sector has made an important contribution to the growth in savings, mainly as the result of a rapid increase in revenues, averaging 12% annualy since 1961. With slower income growth expected, in the next several years, growth of revenue from existing taxes is likely to drop significantly, Nevertheless, assuming maintenance rf the recent level of gross capital inflow, Thailand can finance an increased development effort in part by a moderate draw down in its reserves in the next few years, 5. However, use of exchange reserves will have to be kept within prudent limits, and Thailand could begin to have a difficult financing problem by the end of the decade. The internal financial problem could. bd met in part by an increase in taxes designed to raise total govern- ment revenues to around 16% of GNP) as comparod with 15% at presont, Externally, the problem is likely to be moro difficult if the bulk of foriegn financing were to be provided on conventional terms,and if export growth slows down as present expected, - iv - Maintaining a growth of imports adequate to sustain a satisfactory rate of overall growth under these conditions would probably require steady increases in net foreign capital inflow, With debt service rising progressively, the gross inflow required would rise to magnitudes which would probably exceed practical possibilities. However, if a significant part of the inflows were financed on easier terms, the gross requirements would be less because debt service would be lower. 6. It would be prematurR to conclude that Thailand will in fact face a problem of this magnitude, For export growth could turn out to be faster than nresently nrniPntdi and the Increasp of investment- ability to absorb foreign capital effectively - may be lower. It should he nnsibln to nake a h ra wdoan+. r thnnp. nrnnopts. within the nmxt. year or two. With respect to the latter, a major test will be whether Thn1nnd nnn cnhm+..ntoly increae nr frneress -n nrnt. preparation and implementation in the next two years, In the meantime Thaiand still kas ample creA4+uoreh4ne for aA4+Ainal b%ro4ing4 on conventional terms, I. The Social and Political Framework 1. Over the past two decades, Thailand has achieved a record of impressive economic growth against a background of comparative social stability. This growth and stability have been mutually reinforcing* 2. One basic factor underlvin2 this achievement has been the ample supply of arable land relative to population, and the easy access to such land made possible by Thai traditions. This combination has permitted a high degree of land ownership among farm families, and a steady expansion of qrPqs7 undr- cultivAtion- This Pxnansion hns nlaved a maior role in meeting the income and employment requirements of a population which is still nearlir AOT ruranl ndr -r.hJich iqargroing at+ over- 3% annually0 I- Anothenr impont factor has bee n eihmogeanousic nnaure of society, and its ability to absorb non-Thai elements. This has meant much les soialfriti nthn"edt inra+ mny other conries -",nn' +11a "an0 Although there are a number of dialects, the vast majority of the 30 million belief in some form of Buddhism. Partly because of this homogeneity, the employment than is characteristic of most countries in the regiono 4. By far the most important ethnic minority is the Chinese, most of whom are now ltizens. Ihey account for around 0 o the populaUion anu play a major role in the commercial and industrial activities of the country. Many of the uhinese stil remain separate from the rest of the communiy3 but the extent of their integration is far greater in Thailand than most coun-- tries of the region, This process nas been facilitated both by Thai Jaws concerning schooling and by the similarities between the Thai and Chinese in their physical appearance and in their religious persuasion0 5. Equally important has been the gradual intermixture of Thai cultural traditions and Western ideas which has taken place without the complications and resentments arising from a history of colonial domination. This has been accompanied by a sense of independence, self-confidence and openness towards the West. 6. Despite frequent changes in the governing regime and shifts in personalities at the top, there have been important elements of continuity and stability in the political sphere. Basic policies have remained much the same, both with respect to external affairs and internal politics. A major stabilizing influence continues to be widespread respect for the King and the oonservative traditions deriving from the monarchy. Closely related is the high respect accorded to civil servants and their ability to influence govern- ment economic policies. Finally, the emergence of a modern business community has brought growing pressure for greater predictability in government behavior. All these groups, including the military, have accepted a high rate of economic growth as a primary aim of national policy, although as in most societies, there is often disagreement about priorities and about the appropriate distribution of the benefits. - 2 - II. Recent Economic Performance 7o Tr 196 and ICA) Thajiandts reaI s-noq+.t rns hV ovew annually, bringing the average growth rate since 1959-60 up to 7%, as The terms of trade have remained comparatively stable in the past five years, after deeirtn;mdrtl n +in --irnr iinif, n-r +.hp iQc fl. Thus despite an acceleration in the population growth rate, from around capita income has also speeded up. 8. The most important factors contributing to this growth have Ueen a heltURAiffY tj.&pvlQu tAjqJdL1A1L aL1U a liarluu DLC O U AIomLu i t uV.AVY At the same time, financial stability has been well maintained as the result of increased domestic savings and large foreign capital infow. Output 9. An acceleration in the growth rate of agricultural output has played a major role in the recent expansion of total output. The paddy crop in the past five years has averaged 9.0 million tons, as compared with averages of 7.3 million in the early 1950's and 7.1 million in the late fifties. The 1963/b4 crop at 10.2 ndllion tons was an all time record and the 1964/65 crop exceeded 9.6 million tons. Equally important has been the expansion of other crops. In the aggregate, their growth rate increased to 6.5% annually between 1956-59 and 1961-64 as against 5.3% in the preceding five years with the export crops - maize, kenaf and tapioca - leading the way. The Intter has resulted primarily from an increase in land under cultivation which amounted to about 30o between 1950 and 1963. The greater part of this expansion has taken place in the past six years. Land planted in paddy has increased on the average by only3I%f annually and has declined as a percentage of the total crop area from nearly 90% in 1950 to 85% in 1957 and to 780 in 1963. At the same time, acreage planted in other crops expanded by 351a between 1950 and 1957 and by another 0% between 1957 and 1963. overall, agricultural output went up by about $% annually in the past six years, as against less than 2.5% in the previous five. 10. Mining and manufacturing have also experienced an acceleration in output, particularly in the last four years. The official national accounts estimates show an average growth of 10% in both sectcxs since 1959. These sectors together now account for about 10% of GNP, excluding rice milling and saw milling which contribute another 3%. Construction and transDortation activities have maintained high growth rates (estimated at over 10%) in the past six years, reflecting the expansion of investment and of trade- both domestic and external. Public administration and the private service sectors have grown steadily at around 6% throughout most of the nast decade. at least at fast as real output, as average export prices have remained - 3 - roughly stable, while import prices have apparently not increased and may even have 1allen 1 1 4 Hh +Iizhe ArnatIn ny-i na 1 a%vol r ng hnadly at all national income in current prices has therefore also risen at just over savings have risen at an average rate of 10%. The foreign deficit has avrae 4-+ -- 00 -P r-IATD 4-- O017 ,4 -l- - 1 - -~. P 'I CfO 4-10A1 O.V ~J.%A J I&s U J _.'/0 WiJ.. %JI'J± .L kJ1S.' I$~7 W.LVJLA0 ~~I. % ) a. J .L .1-.O In 1964, however, it fell to 1.5% and in 1965 to date is running at -the sam ratLe, investment to GNP has increased from around 16% in 1955-56 (and less in Wte ear-Ly _LYW0 ) tO L77a A.U EUIU-6 and .7/ 21% inD6-4 y in1ternVLatioLUc definitions, these estimates are overstated by perhaps 10% because of the inclusion of substantial expenditures on repaars and maintenance. Moreover, GNP is under-estimated by at least 5% because of the low valuation of rice consumed domestically. Adjusted roughly to an Uter- nationally comparable basis, the Thai investment rates would show averages of about 14% in ly>->o, 17% in ly>y-ol and 1y/ in lyoj-oa. The sharpest increase has been in public fixed investment which has more than doubled since l957 as compared with a 65% rise in private investment over the same period. However, the private sector still accounts for two-thirds of the total. 13. The growth of the savings rate is closely associated with the exceptionally sharp rise in export earnings since 1956-58. In absolute terms, prirate savings have just about doubled in that time. Even more important has been the growth of public savings which has more than tripled since 1956-58, reaching nearly 6% of GNP in 1964-65 as compared with 2% seven years previously. This is due primarily to a remarkable growth in government revenues. External Finance 14. Thailand's export performance throughout the past decade has been outstanding, and in 1964 it was sensational. Between 1956-58 and 1961-63, current earnings grew at an average rate of 70 and then in 1964 shot up by 26%. In the first half of 1965, they were maintaining the 1964 level* This expansion has been due mainly to increases in the volume of merchandise exports - 35% between 1956-58 and 1961-63 and another 27% between 1963 and 1964. A sharp increase in rice exports in 1964 accounted for nearly half of the total volume increase in that year. These rose to 1.9 million tons as compared with averages of 1.3 million in 1956-58 and 1.4 million in 1961-63. The rice price fell '[oderately during 1964 so that the increase in earnings from rice in that year was l.0 billion, or nearly 40% of the increase in total value. The volume of rubber and tin 1/ Thailand's official import price index shows a 7% drop between 1959-60 and 1964-65, but this does not seem entirely plausible in view of slow upward trends in the average export prices of most of Thailand's main sources of supply. exports has moved up fairly steadily at over 5% on the average. Rubber prices hnae relined snAdr since 1Q00 bit 1 in 961 tin orices rose sharply offsetting nearly all the effect of the drop in rubber and rice priLces in thatrnrn ye+ ,tngYr thea whle peiodn( sincenp 6 by far the most important contribution to total growth has been the newer e p r s - p LCJ -kd 1 I L.. L , I'- -P. -A'~ + - -JA'.~ M0n'M +'ka Q0.C-rIM&- from less than g'200 million in 1956 (3% of export earnings) to 1.5 U1V ILLLOLI Y CUAA . LoIU 4DC-*_) LJ.LIIL.ULI % _J1 J.L VU V UJUJ/ LA '.4 **' has also been a healthy rise in a wide variety of smaller exports. 15. In the first half of 1965 the volume of all main merchandise exports except maize was holduig the 1964 rate. Maize was Lower becas- no stocks were left, whereas in the first half of 1964, some exports were made out of stocks. However, tne otal value remaeu at tue rst Ua-l- 1964 level because of a further increase in tin and kenaf prices. 16. Invisilble earnings have also increased substantLialy in recent years from an average of about IX740 million in 1956-58 to one of V1.36 billion in 1961-63 and over -OZ.0 billion in 1964 with a similar rate -11-1 the first half of 1965. Nearly half this increase is accounted for by U.S. government expenditures in the country, Growth of tourist earnings, and interest on exchange reserves account for most of the remainder. 17. Import value went up on the average by only 6% annually between 1956-5b and 1bl, but has risen by 10% in 1962 and 1963 and by 15% in 1964. A slowing down occurred during the first half of 1965 when the increase was only 3%. Machinery and transport equipment have been by far the most dynamic component in import growth. In 1964, they were two and a half times the 1956-58 level, accounting for 32% of total imports, as against 22% in the latter period. Part of this recent growth has been accounted for by consumer durables, particularly passenger automobiles and television equipment, but by far the major part has been for invest.- ment. Imports of food and manufactire-continued to drop as a proportion of the total. 18. Thailand has generally free exchange system, although it has recently introduced several protective tariffs and a few quotas for purposes of encouraging domestic manufacturingt Exchange is readily made available for current transactions, but large capital transfers need special airbhorization from the Bank of Thailand. From 1955 until late 1963, Thailand maintained a floating exchange rate, but the rate hardly ever floated by more than 3% away from V21 to the dollar, because of stab.,e domestic financial conditions. In October 1963 Thailand set a par value of V20.8 to $1.00. 19. Thailand has had a current account surplus only twice in the past 15 years, the first during the Korean boom of 1951, the second during 1961. In the four years prior to 1963. the current deficit averaged $80 million after allowing for the small surplus of 1961. In 1963, it grew to t110 million. but fell to less than one-third of this in 196L at which rate it appeared to be continuing in the first half of 1965. However, foreign capital inflow has consistently exceeded the current deficit since 1908. so that foreign exchange reserves have risen in each of the last five years. By the end of 1964, they were up to $609 million as noninst .tinn Ytillinn qt thp P.ni nf 10QAM_anM v- .T-tilv 14 .m t at $642 million, the equivalent to nearly one year's imports. 20. Long-term private capital inflow reached nearly $20 million in mainly reflected large investments by Shell in the new oil refinery and W4 .a0+r,ma v,a w -e facbmy,, as weU as a nunxbm wf on,.11 n. 4 nve__n bsd Grant assistance reached $30 million in 1964 (mainly from the U.S.) down about $35 million in the four preceding years, as disbursements on LCI01 .L -.4..1 J.LJO%,VQ1 JLI LU lci-aaiLJG.,L10110 CLlu. 1".L1wajy CUVE1y1615 were largely completed. The largest part of capital inflow has consisted -P Juan vU-4 vuou - -1_14 _uvi 3 au privav Xltoe 4x.ra1auos -n OJ.L _LtJO&1iQ LU LUU11±W I1 JLLU.JU; WIU ~J..Va6tJ WUIUDI'00 f.L&V1d1 Ue[U O.L. ItZ public sector rose by $145 million between the end of 1959 and 1964, while private exuerna.L ueu went up Dy $4) million. U the $1U mllLon total, $120 million has been incurred in the past two years. It continued to increase a-t 'FIs-5 rate- through Thne firs9t half of1 1965.> 21. By mid 196>, Thailands public external debt was up to about $343 million, including $140 million undisbursed. This represented an increase of 4)3 million over the end lo level. Disbursed private debt covered by Bank of Thailand exchange guarantees stood at $11 million, up from $70 million at the end of 1963. Total service on public and private debt together will amount to about $59 million (80 of 1964 exports) from 1965 through 1968. After that it falls to $40 million by 1970 and $25 million by 1975. Internal Finance 22. Internal monetary developmentsin the past two years have continued to maintain the pattern of stability characteristic of the previous five years. The money supply has been rising at an annual rate of 7%, or just about the same as the growth rate of national income in recent years. Since 1959, this expansion has been less in absolute terms than the expansion in foreign exchange reserves, which have risen since that year by $5.0 billion or 70%i of the end 1959 money supply. The strong domestic financial situation which this reflects can be attributed in large part to the rapid growth of government revenues, Between 1957 and 1961 revenues rose by 52% leading to a shift from a budget deficit to a surplus which in 1960 and 1961, together with increased non-inflationary public borrowing had a large negative impact on the money supply. With revenue less buoyant in 1962 and 1963 small deficits recurred but with sustained non-inflationary borrowing, the public sector continued to exert a mild contractionary effect. In 1964 and 1965 to date the growth of ordinary government revenues again accelerated to over 1D% annually. under the impact of improved fiscal management and the 1964-65 export boom. There has also been a marked rise in non- budeetary receipts from domestic sources. As a result. the negative impact of public sector operations increased to 4%f of the money supply in -6- 1964 and to annual rate of about 6% in the first four months of 1965.-' 23. Another important factor in recent financial strength has been the ranid croth of timne and savinas c.nnsits and the canit.al nnrnints of the banks, at least through 1964. Gross credit to the private sector has bAn Axaning Pairly stadIv at an average rate of 1A1 in the nat six years. However, from 1962 through 1964, increases in quasi-money and capital aounts+ere evren faser and Fare than offset the immactof this expansion on the money supply. In the first four months of 1965, +Ian "n e - o , 4 n P n w .1--s A--r - 4 -1, oh -ash P 4-1- - A-- -e4+-- o sm as in the money supply, perhaps reflecting the large negative influence of m,,kid '14-Ne er4-Un -no@4 m -Tw mL l m - L L4b-U w- -- -- Ju 4- a very liquid position. "Black marketT interest rates on time and "vA.LVJ.) mayVQ9 o .LnLIaVI A.LcLgy U.OCPYUUUU Culu Uiu VoUtC. JveL ULL _uuJL1g bank rates :has reportedly come down by as much as one-quarter within the past year or two, Le. frm a previus range o L;-rU70 to one of LC-L,/0 i1 1964 and probably even less today. 1/ After adjusting for seasonal factors. The actual amount corresponds to - 7 - III. The Main Development Problems and the Public Development Effort 24. As indicated in the foregoing chapter, Thailand's recent econonic Derformance has been quite impressive on almost all counts. A satisfactory growth rate in exports earnings and real income has been achieved despite a fall in export orices. The investment rate has been steadily increased. The savings rate has grown significantly in the past six years, and is now comnarative1v high for a country at Thailand's income level. External debt has risen, but external reserves have risen by just about the same amount and nnak sprvic on -xstina debt will not Pxned 8, of 1961 export earnings. Internal financial stability has been well maintained. 25. However, with per capita income at only $110, Thailand can hardly afford tn rest on nat liuole The pnhlom of main+.nining admatne increases in per capita income in the next five to ten years will in some -rePects. beo morea difficult. thaon n-os ofi the + pastrdecade The manirn-problemsR arise from the rapid growth of population and labor force, from uncertainties about the world marketTforiIail I S M Jin, exports, -4d fProm factors lim4t- ing the level and efficiency of investment. The Demographic Outlook 26. As in most developing countries, the growth rate has accelerated anaxs; musevuewar o he reaulu of puvlic nealth programs whicu. nave reduced the death rate, particularly infant mortality. The natural growth rate is estimated Uo have rslen frUm abouU -Lo in the iUmeuLate prewar period to 2,3% in the early 1950s and 3.3% at present. Assuming constant ferttity and a moderate decline in mRortality, the rate is likely to rise to 3.5% by 1970. This rapid increase in the growth rate has already had a maJUr _mpact o n educaton requirements. 1_U wLl soon De leL in a m1aJUr way in the need for jobs and housing, as the large increase in the younger age groups Is reflected in a rapid increase in the age groups of worKing age and marriageable age. The economically active population over age 1 iso pruoee to increase by an verage of )4v0uOCu per year between 1960 and 1970, or just about 5C% more than the average growth in the previous ten years. imilarly, the annual rate of househoU formation may be expected to rise from around 90,000 in 1960 to 130,000 by 1970. 27. It seems inevitable that the growth of population, labor force and households will continue to be more rapid in urban areas than in the countryside. Indeed, the shift to urban areas may well accelerate. The Bangkok-Thonburi area, Which now has a population or 2,5 million, expanded by around 4.0 a year between 1947 and 1960 when the over-all population growth was less than 3.0%. It would be surprising if the rate of increase in urban areas is not already over 4.5%. It is in the urban areas that the requirements for housing and improved public services will be most urgent. Nevertheless, it will still be necessary to find new employment in agriculture for the vast part of the population in the next 5-10 years. If total non-agricultural employment were to expand by 5% a year over the next decade, an increase of over 2.0% anntally in agriculture would be needed to absorb the projected 2.8% increase 'in total labor force. To achieve this without depressing per capita farm income will require both increasing .AnAc fla. n.. .v.A 4"^nfo 4"- +1k0n n,aa -4 1 .,rA ^-1A, n.+4-ft+4-- Indeed, the) need to identify new land suitable for agriculture and to open J.U LO , J L O .L VVjU6A1 L AK; 'U UL V1 I &II W V A& VJLU OU.J. U%;LALV .L U a I DLE.K V decade, World Market Outlook for Exports 28. Another problem facing Thailand is the uncertain world market outlook for many of its main export crops. Having already achieved considerable diversification in exports, the Thai economy is not as vulner- able as many others to short-term fluctuations in export demand. However, longer term prospects for most of the commodities which now rank among the top six are for generally lower prices than have prevailed in the past year or two. 29. In the post war period, Thailand has normally provided about a quarter of world rice exports. However, world exports are equivalent to only 5% of world production, and there are only a few major import markets, mostly in the Far East, most of which control imports tightly while striving for self-sufficiency themselves (so far without notable success). Partly because of these controls and partly because of a fairly stable export supply, world export prices have moved within a narrow range of $100-121 per ton for the past six years. In 1962, the price was at the high end of this range, and in 1964 fell to about $110. The best guess that can be made at present is that, even with moderate increases in total world export supplies, the price will average between $100 and $-10 a ton for the next five years or so. 30. Thailand is now the world's third largest producer of natural rubber. World rubber prices have been falling steadily since 1960 under the impact of the rapid expansion of synthetic production. From what is known of production costs of synthetic and natural rubber, it is estimated the equilibrium price for the late 1960s is likely to be around 20 cents a pound in the United States. This means that the export prices for Thailand should level off at the equivalent of U.S. 17-18 cents a pound, as against 2L cents in 1962 and 20 cents in 196& (January-June 1965. 21.4 cents). If synthetic technology were to improve substantially, the price could fall still lower in the lonaer run. 31. World tin Drices rose mnomentarlv lAst vnar tn.t2-10 a nound and recently were as high as $1.86 (May), because of supply limitations. Tt in wnnted that nrioens will remain fairiv high in the next few vears, since world consumption is likely to continue to exceed current production for awhile Howvr- releans from thn T 1- R- nk nile are also likely to continue. Moreover, the present high price level will tend to stimulate ~n, ~~~t4,,t~in +.hmZt i 4.C nvmognts+O +.ho m-4r.0- w.ill decline gradually within the next several years, and then stabilize at nv.n A 41 An a- -.A *% w nar ra4+t, +h,a 4TT in mn.A V?w'in ON-P 10AT.Aq and the $1.58 average of 1964. 32. Prospects are also that export prices for maize will tend to drift uownwards moderately an usuppition eow t subsidin s whcte US ias much depends on the price supports and export subsidies which the U. S. is -9- willing to provide its growers, Nevertheless, judging from the recent rapid growth in maize imports of South East Asia (especially Japan. Hongkong and Singapore), prospects for maintaining a growing volume of Thai exports are good. provided that production can be exnanded nn an efficient basis, Fnr thtm nis. qPvP.rn1 viorn~i Thni Imnif n-rnizs 'hnVP 'hP.Pn hipph whpn world production has been low, and vice versa. Long-run prospects are ii+.en innw-+.in- given mnnaetition fyrn Qmt1O+A t- lthengh Thai kenaf has a potential competitive edge on the market because of certain quality has experienced strong demand in recent years for starch in the U.S. market and evenmor for 1 ar Pa fee in Euoe .--- n.-4 o substitutes and a new common market tax will tend to depress prices in the .nme .a cUwvU u ommoditoes wal"h Iuaianu now axportvs i s a ,ua 11 quantities have potential for considerable expansion in terms of the world markeV Osuation simply vecau;e tUe magn1tues are now so small that Uty would scarcely affect world prices even with very large percentage increases i11 epo" voLume, However, the Key question with respect to these commodi- ties, as indend with most of the major exports discussed above, is whether production can be increased at a rate which will offset the downward drift in average export prices. The Level and Efficiency of Investment 35, As noted earlier, Thailand has achieved rates of investment in recent years which are quite respectable by international standards. Moreover, even after discounting the effect of the exceptionally good weather in the past two years, real output growth has averaged around 6%0 so that the efficiency of investment appears to have been relatively high. Between 1957 (another year when growing weather was exceptionally good) and 1964, the ratio of gross fixed investment to increased output was just about three to one. A number of factors suggest that this ratio will rise in the next five years. First, there has been some running down of the capital stock in transportation and irrigation which will require substantial investment in rehabilitation. In addition, the large areas of virgin land opened up in the period have permitted comparatively high yields to be obtained in the new crops, but soil fertility is now declining significantly in those areas. The investments required to open up new land will be comparatively greater than in the past because the more accessible areas are already in use. Moreover, to maintain productivity in existing cultivated areas will require increasing use of fertilizer and expanded public support in research and extension. The simpler forms of import substitution in manufacturing will soon be largely exploited, requiring greater investments in more complicated and more capital intensive types of production if the momentum is to be maintained in this sector. 36. There are. of course. imnortant instances where investments made in the past five years have only started to yield substantial returns in the nast year or twn. This is nnrtinlarly true of several imnortant irrigation and power projects, where the full returns will not be reached f^?, qle nl~ YnnrP v' MAYOin- - i rnn-nuri off i-4ann-r _,hniO1rl 'ho rn .qilhi o - 10 - in manufacturing which has been handicapped in the past by lack of experience in the private sector and by a number of highly inelficient inveOmen Iy the public sector. But, when account is also taken of the need to expand investment in such sectors as education, housing and other urban -acilties, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that investment will tend to rise relative to output in the next five years. Taken together with the probaole deterioration in terms of trade, this means a significant increase in the total development effort will be required if anything like the recent rate of income growth is to be maintained in the next five or ten years. To achieve this, important further improvements in public administration and in public policies supporting economic development will be necessary. Such improvement is possible, but will not be easy. The Public Sector Development Effort 37. The Government has become increasingly aware of the country's development problems in recent years, and has taken a number of steps to increase the level of investment and to improve its efficiency. As noted public sector investment has more than doubled since 1957, and in the past few years current outlays on development have also increased rapidly, Government encouragement to private investment has also borne fruit in recent years, particularly in the manufacturing sector, 38. A start has also been made on economic planning. At the request of the government. a World Bank Survey Mission prepared in 1958 a public sector development program for 1959-63, which was followed quite closely as a guide to public investment- Tn 19q9. the aovernment established the National Economic Development Board as its main agency for coordination of the develaorent -renrams and olicies- Tn 1960- the NRB nroduced a plan outline for the central government covering the period 1961-66, and in late 19i6l it An-r6vAPti a revisnd and amnlified vPr.qin fnr 1Q0)_( which covers the entire public sector. The NEDB has also made a start on manpower nlanning ann am prnorA.s orting +nselp anes rn.!nlamentA+An. At present, a five year plan for 1967-71 is under preparation. 39. Since 1959, there has also been a considerable strengthening of other onvernntnal apnni. wi+.h 4mnrnavnt rrslnq in devennment onliny and implementation, including the Budget Bureau, the Central Bank, and the grouped together under a strong Ministry of National Development, which many inefficiencies in the planning and implementation process, but the 4w rro-n+s a +h sno+ cf 0b - - rn- e hIa bean bho+n"+4ni 4Ve 11MI .7UL&-VU DbZL.LVLad.L DU~ULIVIJI".; JJUVkWLUJWAUL I 1J.Ll _LO %jU.LUW CUUUJ.Li.L)L. in its overall magnitudes, It called for an increase in total development spending ol more than "V% over the Uesmated 191-6u level Major icreases were proposed for all sectors except power and manufacturing, with the nest important being agriculture, transportation, education and community facilities., A summary of the Plan targets is shown below: - 11 - Table 1 The National Economic Development Plan.1961-66 (billion baht) Fiscal Years 1961-63 Y 1964-66 Agriculture 1.7 3.0 Tndustrv. mininp, and nnmmnr-A 1.0 1.2 Power 2.3 1.8 Trannn+tainon and coin=miinq 1-? 7-0 Education 0.7 1.8 Health 0.72/ 1-n Community facilities and welfare 1.7 3.7 'J J&I.L Vef Ve Total 12.0 23 Both for financing and implementation, the plan depends heavily on major in grant funds which is now occurring. A major increase in domestic .--.------------------ Projected Financing by Main Sources of Funds (billion baht) 1961-63 1964-66 Foreign grants 1.9 1.6 Foreign loans 2,2 5.0 Domestic resources 7.9 13.7 1240 2-003 41. On the basis of developments since the plan was prepared, it is now certain that the expenditure targets of the plan will not be achieved. The main shortfall is likely to be in disbursements on projects for which foreign financing has been arranged or was intended. During fiscal 1964 and 1965, disbursements on existing loans were quite slow, as the result of administrative delays and revisions in a number of the projects. Moreover, there have been 1/ The figures in this column represent budget estimates for the period from January 1, 1961 through September 1963 and are higher than actual outlays for that period. However, they come quite close to actual expenditure in the full three-year period from October 1, 1960 through September 1963. 2/ The figure given in the Plan document is VO.4 billion, but this excludes about 0300 million of current expenditure which need to be included for comparability with the projection. - 12 - delays in contracting new loans for projects in the plan. Hardly any were contracted during fiscal 1964. In 1965 to date, the pace has picked up, with $60 million having been contracted. However, given the long disbursement period probable for most of the major loans already committed and under consideration, it appears unlikely that, even with the elimination of some of the existing bottlenecks, disbursements will average more than $50 million annually for 1964-66 period, as compared with the $80 million average called for in the Plan. This implies a roughly corresponding shortfall in domestic expenditure for the projects involving this borrowing so that total expenditure for the three years is likely to be 20% - 25% less than called for in the Plan. 42. Nevertheless, this would still represent an increase of 40% over the 1961-63 Deriod. and would be a considerable accomplishment. Taking a. somewhat longer time period (e.g. 1967-71), it would seem feasible to achieve further increases in public sector investment on a reasonably efficient basis by perhaps 50% over the recent level. It is understood that the new Dublic sector nlan beinp nrenaration for 1967-71. will call for an increase of this magnitude i.e. an average of about 17,5 billion for that five year period. as against the estimated avArage of 4.-0 billion achieved in the fiscal years 196 and 19659 The Major Sector Programs 43. A number of revisions have been made in the 1964-66 Plan since it was approved and further mdifinatIons ar likely. Howpver, hV and larg the relative emphasis given the main sectors in the Plan correspnds well %ri+h thn. nn+.n)+Am. nnrl ^-nvna+ P +hnk -rm in +.In nay+. ROUvrAl i~-- b-he r-o-erb-als and req-reent of the econo-y in. the nY u?~ years. Agriculture 1/ 44. The large potential for expanding production and employment in Plan. There is still substantial potential for economic investment in L3 V.V1JL* UVUIM IRA. a±L .L5.AuaUY DUCLItULL l J1VtJ LUJUL- IIUW YI-J Z-0JLoLl. - ULMO r1UrJ_IJr, with assistance from an IBRD loan of $25 million, This will provide new or the Chao Phya project area. The estimated total cost is around 1.5 billion, ofL Which.L perhaps 420CU IIon willW be s. U pet L196hUL-66U* Another major irrigation possibility lies in the area north of the Chao rEya along the man river, where there appear to be another illon acres suitable for irrigation. However, it is likely to take another few years to complete the additionals tudLes needed to determine Tne optimum form of this project, including its large power potential, and its relationship win tne %Ouao Prya system into whnch its water flow. Tne ultimate cost of the project, which will loom large in the 1966-71 period, is in the neighbor- hood of 3.> billione Other important irrigation works which could be carried out sooner include an extension of the "dykes and ditches" program now underway in the Central Plain, and a project for rehablating the existing canal network which has suffered from inadequate maintenance in recent years, in addition, there may be a potential for expanded irrigation efforts in the Northeast. Several possibilities there, encompassing about 300,000 acres 1/ The agricultural sector is discussed in more detail in Volume II of this report. - 13 - have recently been identified by a U.S. Bureau of reclamation team. . In total, irrigation expenditures might well rise from the annual average of Vh60 million in 1963 and 196h to an average of between V6CO and 9700 million in 1965-68. Increased outlays on maintenance are also likely. However, +.hp q.brngthenina of apncty in thi Rnvnl Trriantinn nlPnartmnt which has occurred in recent years should permit a sizeable increase in work, nro-1'.4AA th re J s alsocos-d 1,1 - "'I 4 anc on the~ 11s ^ fraj~4an consultants and contractors, 45. Other public capital outlay in agriculture have averaged about tr rfn - 14 4 - - - - - _ - A-------I DC - L L - 4lk .. + A. .L J , LJL4 A ,'.JLAU VC.LQ0 tul ~ LLW-LUVIOV VJ) *.fj*.J%J V. E+%J/Q 5J V ~. JL - V . several years would be well justified if various administrative difficulties which~ LO. hav J1k-1pre prores JnJA 44L -LQ IU L..LVLLU %,.L%A' UV U VU.VL IJIV L .LAW JA 5.V needs are for greatly expanded programs of land classification and soil survey wur., ransporUt e-uAmenu fur extension workero OUso,ouvaaL.y expanded research facilities, more funds for agricultural credit (these have receUt.Ly ben expanueU, and greater outlays on pubUei jupo1t for new land development and replanting, particularly in rubber and oil palm, in adudtion to direct public outlays on these programs, encouragement of private estate development could be of major help in expanding agricultural output on an efficient basis. Manufacturing 4o. In recent years, the Thai Government has made impressive progress in stimulating private foreign investment through its program of tax holidays and other incentives, It has also contributed modest financial support to private manufacturing through participation in a private development finance company (IFCT). However, it has continued to make substantial sums available for support of government-owned manufacturing activities. Total investment in the latter averaged about V300 million in the fiscal years 1962-64 (over 10% of total industrial investment). A portion of this was financed by retained earnings, but the major part was covered by government grants and loans, The recurrent difficulties of these enterprises and the uncertainties they create for private investors have led to a growing feeling in the government that it should reduce its direct participation in this sector. On this b.-sis, it seems reasonable to project a substantial drop in such outlays in the next few years, However, technical support through such projects as the proposed Small Industries Service Unit jeems justified. In addition, further public funds are likely to be needed for financing the private sector through the IFCT and possibly for industrial estate development, Equally important is the need to strengthen further the administration of the various programs for industrial promotion, including tax incentives, tariff protection, and guidance to potential investors, Power 47. Between 1960 and 1964 the Dublic generatine capacity serving the Bangkok region was increased from 150 MW to 50 M. At the same time major improvements were made in the citvls distribution svstem- Tnether with a modest start in developing power facilities in other regions, these projects led to a total outlay on nower avernaing over VAnn TIllion a vwr in th - 14 - period 1960-6. Even with the considerable expansion in provincial generat- inn and dt bution faniii.ns nlannnn fnr +.hn nPyt, several vpars. total outlays on power will probably be reduced to an average about V400 million 4n +.ha nov+. feyii vrnr Th4M 4q enq4en'hv1r 1.r thn the 1(0 million rate projected in the Three Year Plan for 1964-66. The difference is dinn .e +.ha M nmn nt1A nn+.nement o fn Evrr norniPr.nt (the Pattani and slow progress in the work of the Provincial Electricity Authority. Transport and Communications 48. In the Three-Year Plan, 97,0 billion is allocated to Transport an&'-~L iL"aV.L ~JL1J CZLI C%WLC6 V.. 40 G . U.L. LV &A C& J VCL .LW L.. AC~ J~ this target will not be reached. It nay be possible to achieve this rate W.LUJLl U,IU 111Jj.&U, .LUUL- U 'D iJ~ ±Liu1t L0ou UFOJLL'U1LO q4ufdou.L" .Lli VjJJ"Q WC.% relate to the road program. Roads 49, The expansion of the economy since 1950 has been accompanied by a tripling in road transport activity. Although both capital and maintenance outlays on roads have increased considerably, they have not been able to meet the needs created by this traffic growth. As a result further major outlays are needed for the improvement of existing roads, as well as for new roads to open up the country, In the light of these needs, the Govern- ment projected outlays of 4.00 billion on roads in its Three-Year Plan as compared with actual capital expenditures of around %580 million annually in 1962-63 and Fh50 million in 1959-61. Foreign financing of $1.4 billion had already been arranged in the form of loans and grants from IBRD, Eximbank and AID, However, the program gct off to a very slow start as the result of inadequate preparation, administrative complications in the Highway Department and shortages of local contracting capacity, No disburse- ments at all were made under either of the two road loans in the first year of the Plan (indeed $10 million of the $35 million IBRD loan was cancelled at the Government's request), and it is unlikely that total capital outlays in the first year of the Plan exceeded 1650 million as against a target of a1,050 million. 50- However, several teams of foreign consultants have recently started to work on the projects covered by the IBRD loan and the Highway Department has made significant progress in sorting out its administrative problems. In addition, a new loan has recently been signed with AID for a $1.0 million project (from Saraburi to Lomsak), and new grant financing has been obtained for a new road to the Northeast from the Gulf of Thailand. Thus, a considerable increase in construction work - and maintenance outlays - should be possible over the next few years. Assuming that administrative improverents continue to be made, and that additional foreign financing is arranged in the next year or two. it is conceivable that total road expenditures might be roughly doubled between 1964 and 1968 - from V950 million (includine '300 million current) to 21.800 million (21.400 million capital and J'h00 million current). This would still be far short of the N2.-0 billion target for canital outlays prniented for 1966 in the Three-Year Plan, but under present conditions, it probably represents the maximu that can bec mr%hievP.f nn A rP~n.qnnnv offirint. bais.. 4n this time npriod- - 15 - Railways 5le The railroads have faced a problem of competition from roads in recent years which promises to grow greater in the near futureo However, with the reduction or elimination of the artificial advantages now favoring road transport 1/ it seems probable that further important investments in rail transport will be justified. Even assuming only slow traffic growth, important savings can be gained through continued dieselization and replacement of old rolling stock and old track. Indeed, a major program of investment for these purposes is currently underway with support from an IBRD loan. In addition, one major new line (the Korat cut-off) is under construction with financial help from Germany* Total capital outlays on these programs probably reached :VOO million in 1963-64 as against an average of only K100 million in 1960-62. Completion of the current program - originally planned for 1966. is likely to be delayed until 1967 and to involve further outlays of about 1,100 million in the three- Year period 1965-67. Some decline in the annual investment rate will probably be called for after that, There seems little economic justification for any major new line extensions. with the nossible exception of a connection between the existing lines to the North East and South East with Lnem Krabnng. a sitr 120 km- southeast of BAangok nn the G1lf- which h some promise of development into a deep water port and new industrial center. Ports 52. The Port of Bangkok, which handles 90% of the country's foreign tr d P 1-r-rem-1vier ncz4in, ,,~ +~ +-Inq~ ywpcnf a+ ^- n -n a rnr+.i in traffic, Excluding bulk petroleum products, the volume of traffic has ranri -ki" h%-v '71d 4" +1-,n ve+ -4-l,+ 4- - A TTMT C"an,4n1 W d R ndy 4N F,-"- -k' -'J 1,'/u .LUS 1ISU1. JO. U .L54AU J V4 WttLM JJ .~ now being made of the potential for improving the physical capacity and W.L JLLJj LW.L#JQJJ.LJ--L.UJ"JJCj.LJy L" &J.%oiV.LWAA. - W -1- investment of about V250 million may be called for over the next four years in1 ad i-O t-0 C-Vnt.LL1k1Ue' -.MUt.LLJg UUJcy V.L 40,V4 ILL"j.U (A, year,L However, with the further growth of traffic expected (perhaps 70% in the a supplementary port at laem Krabang, which consultants have tentatively idetii -As the closest site suitable for a deep pater pot. F uther studies are needed, but these may well indicate that -a start should be made on o±e fJTuwo to bne next Live years. In addition, there may be an eco- nomic justification for construction of a small deep water port in the scuth UL- -t-U-- of te count,ry.. Air Transport . Witn tne recent purcnase or tnree new aircrafts ana the complet- ion of a major expansion program for regional airports, capital outlays on 1/ The main advantages are very low taxes on motor fuels, tolerance of over-loading trucks, and the high charges imposed on rail users by the Express Transport Organization. a semi-autonomous Government Corporation which has a monopoly on delivery to and from the railroads, - 16 - domestic air service can be probably reduced to around V40 million annually in the next several years from an average of %85 million in the last four. However. Banekokts international airport is now congested partly because of dual military-civilian use. The problem will be reduced by completion of a second runway scheduled for next year. but it is not certain this will be sufficient. A feasibility study now being conducted may indicate that a sennd airnort wil1 hs needed if the military in eannnot beeliminated or curtailed. Telecommunications 54. Inadequate telecommunications and mail services consitute a handi- cn to, econo~ic ne-+4-tA +-i 4 " Mlin~4l nn,,l +-lknt- is o lnnnole no cm- the- q.flc r - _ _ _ wha is 1- - as road problem. Major increases in investment have taken place in the past Sn-^"^1's - -nn A n4c ow r systemn., for, -4w ter re-Jo. v n -" n,,n a'_ re,4 n +4- e,n n v-a4Yie YV,AJ Am A l M1 .'.Jh GYV Q4W V LJJ. JJI V.L- .LVr.L%JLVL.~'JII ~ 'I' three-fifths of the country was completed early this year at a total cost 1J .L UL roun" 11".J_LVL1* 1VVU 1J.C&.LUL1Q areL untAwlWety Lou .LJLLur1w'L - ,JdSV.- hovering the rest of the country at an estimated cost . Y9JtV 11LL.J.LVLL9 AoWU~V6r. U11L'tJL Z i. 'LDVL"L. U 111JOI,u ut 41r, L V%0_LU~ telephone service, and much of the value of the micro-wave system will not be realized until this is overcomea Bangkok currently has one of the lowtu ratios of phone to population of any city in the world, and even these are frequently out of order because of overloading of the lines, The Telephono Organization has an expansion plan underway, which would involve an increase of investment from an average of -040 million in recent years to 'L2u million in the current year and over the next five. However, it night well be justified to double this rate by 1968 or 1970 in order to meet the needs more adequately. This magnitude of investment could provide Bangkok with around four phones per hundred by 1974 as against 17 at present 1/o Education and Health 55. Per capita expenditures on education in Thailand are among the lowest in Southeast Asia, and the quality of instruction is generally low, In an effort to upgrade standards while also coping with the increased school age population, the Government recently decided to authorize annual increments in normal budget outlays of 10% annually and also to allocate up to :1.0 billion as the domestic counterpart for foreign financing in this sector over the next five years. A project for upgrading technical and vocational schools has been developed.for IBRD financing. This totals F40 million and is regarded as the first part of a two-phase project to be completed over the next five years. In addition, foreign financing from other sources is likely to continue at the recent rate of 50 million or more. Thus, total public outlays on education are likely to rise from about V1.95 billion in 1963/64 to V3.0 billion by 1968 with an average of around Y2.5 billion for 1965/68 as a whole, as compared with one of 91.5 billion in 1960-64. 1/ At present, Bomoay has also L,, Calcutta jo., ZngE.pore 3.9, Taipei 5.3, Manila 7.3, Athens 10.9, London 31.7, Washington (the highest in the world) 90, - 17 - 56. Total outlays on public health have gcne up by two and a half times in the past six years, reaching Y450 million in 1963/64. A major part of the increase has been financed by foreign grants, which rose from V20 million in 1956/57 to around l100 million in 1963/64. The most important projects in the period have been malaria eradication and the construction of Provincial hospitals and health centers. A further major increase in public health outlays - around 50% - is projected in the Development Plan for 196-66. with malaria eradication and provincial health facilities again accounting for the largest parta Given the difficulties of recruiting and retaining qnalified staff. which are mentioned in the Plan document, it is tentatively assumed that an increase of th nrnosed annitian wunld hn fnnsibli only nor a somewhat 1oner period - say, 1966-68. Thus, one might project total expenditures on halt.h at mand -DA 0A47-A in 40v7 Tnnn 10A 4llinn financed by foreign grants. On this basis, the total budget outlay for 1965-68 Water iveang andlS4rg ..,to.'. loval ydlic.L. ouply on.J water W 0U~ 'Uj.J.L.V~ AULV ~V 6VX7. O.SV' C6VUJLL million annually in the past two years, mainly because the construction of1 0a cnarmatively expensi0.ve 1111CII.UJ ..LIW.UU PI-,UCEP GO ~J-1 .IVVV Bangkok's water system. This will be largely completed in the current year, altough cUutueU outlays on UZiUributLon mIght be requireu o around V60 million annually. The Three-Year Plan calls for an expansion in budget outlays on provincial water supplies from about 1>> millon annually in recent years to %80 million in the next several years. In addition, continued AID financing at around %20 million a year seems likely on water supplies in the North East, These programs seem well justified, and would bring total public outlays on water to arouna 10 million annually in 1965-68. 58. It is also probable that expanded outlays on drainage in Bangkok would be well 3astified over the next several years to reduce the city's growing flooding problemso Work is now underway on a revised master plan for drainage and sewerage, and it seems possible that outlays averaging V80 million might be made for this purpose over the next four years as against negligible amounts in recent years* Sumnary 59. In sum, a substantial rise in both current and capital outlays on development would be justified over the next several years. The current component might rise from 93.0 billion in fiscal 1964 to around V4.3 billion by 1968, Capital outlays might rise to around V6.5 billion by 1968 as against V4* 9billion for 1964 with an average of $V5,7 billion for 1965/68, The latter compares with an average of V6.6 billion of capital outlays projected for 1964-66 in the Three-Year Development Plan. The actual average for 1964-66 is likely to be closer to Y5.,2 billion as a result of the slow start mentioned earlier. The Missia's assessment of probable current and capital outlays for 1965-68 by major sector is indicated in Table 1 below, along with actual expenditure rates of the recent Past. and the capital outlay projected in the Plan for 1964-66. - 18 - Table .2 Pniblin Sector D)evelonment Outlay Past & Prolected (million Baht) Mission Annual Averages for Fiscal Actuals 1964-66 Projections Years Ending in oA Plan h/ 196-68 1968 Vinn."- -Vrinyb Irrigation (mostly maintenance) 107 125 .. 150 180 Other agrict-1 t-al ser-es __na 101 _ 9)I 280 Highways (mostly maintenance) 156 280 340 )400 f1 1 ln Qn 9)400 Public Health 217 285 330 400 All lot~ 2- ;77 ).Al cl o)4 A),o Total: n7- 3 500 730- Capital: Central Govt., Local PJ'VV . D-W1 U JLJ. LL±I- J Irrigation 1/ 373 462 640 700 900 Other~ZJ ag iUUur L%j-L -L- I \C.'.jj / V -L f 1J' J Manufacturing & Mining 318 282 40o 230 230 k U Uvy .l U1- vUu %. 4uu Highways 460 621 1300 1100 1400 ailways 1U Co_ 4,u 5cu rUU Ports 65 47 100 110 150 A- 1^0. Inf ..Inn^ -.1 i P.1V 4:U ->0 LUU !/ 4u 4U Telecommunications 70 257 250 350 140 Other Transport & Communications 70 1>9 15u 1OU 15u Education 230 335 600 560 600i Health (capital only) 88 125 ()uu / 17 20 Water Supplies & Drainage 106 418 (330) 245 300 All Other Domestic 558 780 1300 1100 1290 Central Government (07) T270) U) r ) 770J) Government Enterprise o ( 80) (100) (100) / (100) (100) Local Government (271) (30) (600) (550) (60) Grant Total Capital: 3318 4576 66oo h/ 5695 6600 Average of actuals for 1962/63 anmd Mission ebtimates for 1963/660 IBRD disbursement on Yanhee project included entirely under power; budget outlays on Bumiphol dam included entirely under irrigation. Includes the allowance for Pattani hydro project subsequently dropped. 3 Includes the allowance for a second airport at Bangkok, subsequently dropped, at least for the time being* hV The Plan figures have been adjusted roughly for comparibility with the classifications of capital outlays used in the government budget, as follows: "other agriculture" and "health" have been reduced by 1150 million and $ 125 million respectively; on the other hand, an allowance of 100 million has been made for state enterprise exDenditure under "all other" for items not covered by the Plan - mainly for estimated outlays of the Lottery Organization on social welfare. Note: For further details on past outlays by year and sources of finance, see -19 - 60. Foreign £inancing nf nnbic sectnr development has risen from under 1.0 billion in 196o/61 to Y1.5 billion in 1964, with the entire increPA cmniinr frnm Innn finncing. Direct capital nitlv frnn the central government budget went up from A1.1 billion to $1.7 billion in the same peid whl tt etrrs an oclgvenet ulyrs from 50o.8 billion to A.5 billion (including amounts financed by transfers from the central government). On the basis of present indications, it appears possible that foreign financing might rise to an average of 11.6 billion in +he four_ year 4196-48, as coare wit one > of K2.2 illion projected in the Plan for 1964-66. If the total expenditures indicated ab,ove are to be realiz11ed, thi wolrev nae Age9. Illo +o 'k- ~L~JVV OLV UL.J I, ýL vlÅls wouLL.LQI ]LewOve an1 a:verage~ p)4,- U.LJEL.Lvti1 Vli WWV met from domestic resources for 1965-68, as against one of gh.3 billion aLed fr In tZ P-JctLa n Jfo 94-UU, an1d estimate dbL J UaldomeD.si VUlays of V3.5 billion in 1963/64. IV. Prospects for Output and Income 61. Given a public expenditure program and polices supporting private investment along the lines indicated, the prospects are good for a healthy expansion of production. For the next few years, however, growth of output and incomes will, in all probability be somewhat below the high rate of the past five or six years, because of the normal expectation of somewhat less favorable growing weather and because of the probable decline in the growth rate of export earnings. As noted. uncertainties about world demand for Thailand's major exports also obscure the longer run outlook. However, assuminLg no naior difficulties in this regard. the prospects seem favorable for a renewed acceleration of the growth rate around the turn of the decade. if the qnvernment continues to strengthen its policies in support of economic development as it has in the recent nast and if adeonate foreign financino is available 62. Onhioumsly,j Trnm~r rif tlia projct an+-ndrogam d1iscse i n thr! foregoing chapter will not have much impact on output during the next four or fivear bT+ shnOl havn sbtnta l benefits i the ^ period ar that. However, some should have quite a significant impact even in this ments and. supporting programs which will accrue over the next several A LJ .Lir ullu1 J'LAl'u Lvz Yt;1 L I Wi: .LUWUi lctUZ £d L 11 %LId ±L.~J.,L0 J.. u v put is likely to slow down to around 4% as compared with 5o between Jy7.)U 17 anu~ -L7'JLLLV4o .i A ~ jLI. ne,wahrLL1 IU L UUW1itj.-.UUWU apparently exceptionally good, especially in the Northeast, and any reaLsDU.( proJQu1ion has t,o uaise into account the probability of rever1on to average conditions. This applies especially to rice. In the case of other major export crops, some slow down is likely because of supply limitations in the case of corn, and because of world demand limitations in the case of apoUP and kena. nowever, at leas a m-Ioderate aU-ULraUion in the growth rate of other crops and livestock output should be possible, given greater efforts to improve TransporTaTion and marXeting conditions Rice: /0. During e past four years (l9o2-o) output of paddy has been 31% higher than during the 1956-59 period, and the rice export surplus has reached record levels. Certainly some of this increase is due to weather conditions.l/ Adjtsting roughly for this factor, it appears that the secular trend of output was around 37 annually in this period as against 1,5o in the previous five years. Increased acreage accounted for only a small part of this increase, as most of the land suitable for paddy cultivation was already in use by the latter 1950s, Thus, the average "normal" yield rose by perhaps 2,5% annually in this period, as against no 1/ Exceptionally good weather in 1963/64 and exceptionally poor weather in 1997/58. - 21 - increase in vields during the decade of the t50s. This must be attributed primarily to better water control, to improved seed,and in a minor degree to increased use of fertilizer. All these factors will continue to operate and an average annual increase in output around 3%0 now seems quite attain- mble in the next decade. On the basis of these prospects. it may be estimated that paddy output will average around 10.0 million tons in 1966n69 and -A millJin tons in 1971-7) Altlimah nast data on Droduction are too uncertain to derive reliable estimates of implied consumption, it seems likel t ^nii Ynnmnt*n has rimsn atnah%iit 9.4 annully in the past decade, or slightly less than population growth 1/. Projecting cnsunn ion g '-ah -P^" +.ha nov+. onAr f+. 9 RO/ nnniinIJ v wmn1i snlaast that the export surplus would average around 1.7 million tons in 1966-69 and Acreag-e under rubr-a probably more th,an doubled S-ince the late 1940s and probably exceeds 1.6 million acres at present. As the result early 1950s to 200,000 tons in the past few years, Immature acreage is ." . I_JJ J.LVUL'.LJY LL U11t; l_UI t; U.L ULltV"_JLLClL#:.L Uo one-I L" "L OL V11c; UuaJ .Lp .LI'A a moderate anount of this is in the high yielding varieties so that sizeable fL.Lurther _ir1ae In± Output IMy ble eaxpteCted OV -Longr as Wte Worl icerman high enough to provide the incentive to continue tapping. The Government's pro- gram to encourage replanting of low yieLUig afcre to±U Lb ub gU.t, UnUeway, and could have an important impact on output 10 to 15 years from now, although it would somewhat reduce the growth of output in the IrItIX. lil iiuawII run outlook is for an expansion of rubber output to about 250,000 tons by 1968 and perhaps 275,000 by 1970, out for only a slight increase in oxport uarnings avove the 1964 level of 02.0 billion because of the expected.continued price decline. 66. Corn has shown the most spectacular development of all the new crops, rising from 50,000 tons in the first half of the 1950s to about one million tons in the crop year 1963/64. This expansion follows the intro- duction of a hybrid developed under a joint Thai Government - US. Govern- ment - Rockefeller Foundation research program. The main market is Japan but sales to Hongkong, Flalaysia, Singapore and Europe have also become substantial in the last four years. These markets are likely to continue to expand at a healthy pace. Ot* However, the corn industry faces an important problem in the decline of yields which has been occurring as the result of reduced soil fertility which occurs after the first few years of production. Thus far, expansion of acreage has more than offset this, but the limit to accessible land will slow the rate of expansion in the next few years. The research group has been working on the development of new varieties which will respond to fertilizers and prospects are good for success within a few years. However, it will also be important to open up new land for corn production if continued advantage is to be taken of the rapid growth of demand. 1/ A mar opastn fonr tohis ctipen wherenthe isolute amot ply rie shift of population to the cities ifhere the absolute amount of rice --_ ___ VU4A- VLt A . J a. - 22 - 68* Kenaf. which corresonds to low oualitv lute. has been grown for some years in the Northeast region. When the Pakistan crop failed in 1960-61. world orices went un sharnly bringing about a large increase in Thailand's export earnings, and (with a one year lag) in output Ecport value in I 961 ranked third amna the ma in Pnort comnities, but by 1962 when Thai output was up 60% over 1961, the price had fallen sharply and enort earnincs fell l-%v 1, As a resnt Y on+pu+. fall and eneort. vane in 1963 was back to the 1961 level. Output and price increased again in 1964 nnA i +4 -'kcl 1'^r+AV1gr -"i A o A" T,%"4nno 4 10 E ^n-cnrl 4,-i ,,, ki -r r-Nntn?,v over the situation in Pakistan and India, the outlook is good for increased (carpet matting, etc.) and world demand is going up moderately. Chances market with average export values averaging around 1'600 annually (as compared wv-th1 P4UU rllion in 1964 alid an estamated p5800-m-l-lion in 1965 * 6.1 TapILoa Ugan to Uecome an impotanT export in tle mIU L7-O (over Y1Oo million a year) and had risen to over AOO million annually in use perJu .-O) and IoTfu .LLon in 10oe DemanC has been maUy 11Um the United States where it is used for starch and from Europe where its main use is animal feed. The best guess at the present is that export earnings will continue to grow at least moderately in the medium-term future. Iv* In 1964, all other crops combined were valued at about 7.4 Lillon (at 1962 prices) out of the total crop production valued at I20,4 billion (rice accounted for 79.7 billion while rubber, corn, kenaf and tapioca accounted for 03.3 billion). The most important in terms of value are sugarcane, coconuts, fruits and vegetables. The great part of this output goes into domestic consumption. Total output has been increasing at around 4% more recent years. However, in the past few years, the export component has been rising much faster - from about 1h50 million in 1957-59 to around 7,900 million in 1964. Of this increase about 7200 million is accounted for by sugar which may continue for a while, since the Government is subsidizing the export of surplus stocks, The remainder represents a pattern of growth that could well be maintained in the future. Among the most promising items are castor beans, mung beans, peanuts, soybeans, tobacco, kapok, bananas and palm oil. Increased production possibilities for many of these crops will be greatly enhanced by the irrigation projects now planned or under way, which will provide enough water on large areas to grow them in the dry season. However, a considerable intensification of research and extension work will be necessary to take full advantage of the potential for increased output and sales of these crops, It would seem quite possible that the overall growth rate for this group of crops could rise to at least 4.5% during the next five years with a significantly faster growth in the export component. Livestock. Forestry & Fishing 71. Outnut of livestock Droducts (which accounts for 70 of total agricultural production) has been stagnant in recent-years, in part because of domestic and external marketing difficulties. Efforts are being made tn overcome thAse and assuming success on this point. it would be reasonable to project a recovery of exports and renewed growth in total output at or0a ^v, Kla nrp Th r1e1in- in forestrv outnut in recent years is due to a drop in teak output which has been enforced as the result of over u tAng i+ n the past As a silt- the enntribution of forestry to GNP has fallen from a1.7 billion in the mid 1950s to about $1.h billion ; 10411 aa lve,+s 1, 1v,r%rNgnA fnn nyn WQA wanilinn t.4 I270 million in the in I/U arx e-k= - - -rk- same period. At least a moderate growth in output should take place over t-he noxt. fi.Lve to tens years if ~~ 11a- fr- ncyr intmal production takes place on the scale which seems desirable. Fishing out-- put U--- at- a- rapid rtinectyers^ asz the -resilt. of a large increase in the marine catch; this has been made possible in large part bY greatly expanded motorization of" t-he ifish.144rxpans1on is likely, not only in marine fishing, but also in inland fishing. Mining 72. Tin is the only mineral of any importance produced in Thailand. Since the cut back in production to 9,000 tons enforUUed iU _Lu under te, International Tin Agreement, production has increased rapidly, surpassing the previous peak of 19,000 in 1962 and reaching a level of C2u0 toUn in 1963 where it remained in 1964. Hith the price rise in the latter year, export earnings from tin reached %960 millon. Prices in I65 so far are even higher than 1964, so the value of exports is likely to be even larger this year than last. Prices may well remain fairly high in the next two or three years, but are expected to decline to around $1.30 a pound by 1970, (as compared with $1.58 in 1964, and the average of $1.70 so far in 1965). However, with the possibility of continued growth in Thai output of around l, or 5% annually, foreign exchange earnings from tin might still exceed 1,000 million five years from now. Output of other minerals has been small and fluctuations wide. Following the discovery of a smal deposit, production of iron ore reached 130,000 tons in 1964 and during the first month of 1965 ran at an annual rate of over 400,000, but there is no basis for expecting any large new mineral exports. Manufacturing 73. In 1963, value added by manufacturing accounted for 12% of the national product. About one-fourth of this was accounted for by rice milling and saw milling. Output of the latter has almost certainly gone up rather slowly, following trends in rice output and lumber production. The remainder is estimated in the official national accounts to have risen by around 6% annually in the decade of the 50s and by 10% annually since 1959. The latter growth rate seems quite plausible in view of the indicators of investment which are available. Indeed, it would not be surprising if the actual growth rate were somewhat higher. For there have been very sizeable increases of industrial investment in recent years. Total investment in manufacturinL is estimated to have risen from around 01.5 billion annually in 1957-58 to 12,5 billion in the past two years, (compared with estimated 1961 vni added of Vq_8 million by manufacturine other than rice and saw mills). A large part of this rise has undoubtedly been stimulated by the varis innontives nrvided to new manufacturinL investment under the "Promotion of Industrial Investment Law" enacted in 1959. As of July 1965- 1l ftirms had anlifi-d for privil-PrPs nndAr this law- It is estimated that total capital investment under these projects alone will exceed :V6.0 billion when thaeyr all Cmnleted pIarIy P_ A hdMllMrn of thi _ accounted for by two oil refineries, another :V250 million by a chemical fertilizer plant, r,/9nOO_ Ilion% bky the Fiesoerir +.P%"-% V<onl -iiiinn by a variety of textile plants, V300 million by cement, and $250 by neta" J-d-iAft-1-. JlO - 1 ...l Ungl '+4 , w14.n Th - , a n other -wnc24"n"+<z have brought with them a significant amount of foreign capital and techni- 7), 1,1 4.1 4.1- UL --4. _ vv.Ll ith he UCLL probable.L decin ite Growth rateU Qof arultual". exports, increasing reliance will have to be placed on domestic manufacturing as a prImLe imuipetus to overaLL growth. Theposet LUI' LL~ A.-111 L1AL4-L.-.- investment and further foreign participation are good0 There are still paper, metal working etc.) and a small beginning has been made in industrial expor e anu p±ywoou cu N. Given these prospects, and the large investments made recently which have still to come into full production, a continued growth in output of at around 10% a year would seem quite possible at least for the next five years. However, to ensure that this potential is realized on an efficient basis will require a major strengtaening of indirect public support for industrial development, and may well require substantially increasing the flow or public loan funds to the private manufacturing sector through appropriate institutions such as the IFCT. Other Sectors and Overall Output Among the remaining sectors, continued rapid expansion is likely in the public utilities, construction and transportation if the volume of investment and output continues to expand at the rates indicated aboveo The contribution of public administration will also rise substantially if current government expenditure on development grows at the rate indicated. Finally, the provision of housing service should grow moderately faster than population, while the trend of other services might be expected to rise at about the same rate as activity in all other sectors combined. 76. On the basis of these indciations, total growth in real output should average about 5.5% annually over the next four to five years. However, with the decline in export prices expected and increasing factor income payments to abroad, real national income growth might be in the order of 5 as against the 710 growth rate of the past five years. As compared with 1963, export growth in the next 5 years might be close to 6% annually, but only about 3% in relationship to the record 1964 level. (See Table 2). The export outlook after 1970 is obviously uncertain, but it is hard at present to see the possibility of export growth at more than 4% on the average. For total growth to grow more rapidly would require increasing emphasis on output for the domestic market. particularly in manufacturing. Table 3 Foreign Exchange Earnings Actual & Projected (nillion $) Actuals Est. Projections 1997 1958 1963 196h 1965 1968 1970 Rice 187 lh2 167 221 190 195 209 Rubber 82 64 91 98 100 96 100 Tin 26 12 36 h6 55 55 55 Corn 9 40 65 55 70 75 Ke nnf k Jute 2 3 17 2 Ln 25 30 Tapioca 7 9 21 31 30 35 4o Teak & other wood 17 15 10 13 14 12 10 All other 63 46 79 92 95 135 155 Total merchandise 390 308 461 590 579 623 670 Invisible receipts rom other nwv,4n 10 (2 3. e en [f l.n n4th Ver e-ibe3 6 TotI-L current earning : 3y 54 748 800 jU ~ ~ ~ ~ - U-J. -U1.~U ~ 4U J0 17 U ~ d 0 UUU r.LVC.u U.VULLB.LULo kLICU) - -L. -u 0 .Lu 417 349 556 703 700 7D56 .810 - 26 - V. Financing Development The Overall Pattern of Expenditure and Finance 77. To sustain a growth rate in real output of 5.5% or more will in 7% annually, in addition to expansion in public capital outlays on the of private investment from the real growth rate of over 9% recorded in the J_.LC.LCL VOWUL OWD.J~ L~JW~UVA J.72) I LL.LU .,7UJ49 1" 1"V'11 k.jC&Q jJ A .LCVW VWO "U~ LLL significant measure to the industrial promotion incentives established . 9. y UO ULue agruuL0U.Ues op.LU_ uk;ve dtVU U.cu W v.ne 6%AQ aAA1 AV export markets, and to the substantial rise in demand for housing and comm-ercial servi.ceS created by the rapid growth of real inuome in the periUd* All these inducements to private investment should continue to operate in the future, but some deceleration in the growth rate would seem likely because of slower growth in export incomes, and because important bottle- necks now exist (e.g. in transport, communications and technical skills) which have to be dealt with by important further investment by the public sector. 76. An increase in private investment of this magnitude would bring total investment to 21o of GNP by 1968, as against 20% in 1964 1/ Public consumption expenditures are likely to rise faster than investment, given the need for expanded economic services already mentioned, and a probable rise in outlays on defense and internal security. Nevertheless, with appropriate monetary and fiscal policies, it should be possible to increase the contribution of the public sector to national savings, above the 1963-64 level. (In fact, a major increase in public saxings has apparently occurred in 1965). However, with the slow down expected in growth of private disposable incomes, it seems unlikely that any growth of private savings can be achieved over the record 1964 level during the next six yearso In fact, some decline seems likely during the next two or three years. as consumer demand rises in response to the export boom of 1964-65. However, even to regain the 1964 private savings level by 1970 would mean holding the average growth of personal consumption growth to around 4.570 annually, or 1% per capita, a significantly slower rate than that of recent years. At least a moderate increase in foreign capital inflow seems possible and desirable to help suDort the increase of investment which seems feasible in this period. A plausible pattern of national expenditure for 1968 and 1970 reflecting these considerations mieht be somethinL as follws! ThnP rn+.cq are nad1in+.d roghnly + an intena+.ionaly cnmnarable basis. - 27 - Table 14 %.4P Sh. ic +an*al . .Tn eA+i . Ai n n 4a 1a. estimated 1964, and a reasonable prospect for 'I Ae .,-A *1 nM (billion baht) ibL, U bl,WU ates 1963 1964 1968 1970 1964-70 Gross domestic product 65.7 71lo 87.0 98.0 5-5 Factor income payments - - - VOO - o Gross national product E777 71.0 9702 Loss from terms of trade - - 0.6 - 1.0 Real national income 777 7T1-0 Z77 96 5"'o Current deficit 2.3 11 2,8 3,0 National expenditure T.0 T2 1 5.o Investment 13.4 14.2 18.2 21.0 6,3 Public fixed 4.76 5.0 6.5 7-5 7,0 Private fixed 8,2 8.2 10.5 1200 6.6 Changes in stocks 0.6 110 1,2 1.5 7,0 Consumption 54.6 5709 70.4 78.2 5,0 Public 6 7,3 9,9 11,6 8,0 Privata 48.0 50.6 60,5 66,6 45 National Savings 111 13.1 15ch 18.0 5oO Public 2,9 3,2 T7 - T Private 8.3 909 11,2 12.7 Total Savings as % of real income 16,8 18,4 18.0 18,7 Private savings as % of disposable income 15,0 16.3 15.6 16.2 Financing Public Sector Development 77, In 1963 and 196. public savings rose to an average of V'3.0 billion. as compared with only $L,0 billion in 1957-59. Relative to total savings, the rise was from about. 1. in the earlier neriod to 2 . in 1q63-6L, In 1965% it seems likely that there will be another 2arge increase - to over VTh0 billion. or nearly a third of the nrobable total for this vnar. However, with the rapid rise in current expenditure foreseen, it seem linlikelv thqt. thln hvr)l ri he nintninp withnii fr+.her nffrt to raise the current revenues, The Central Government 78. The current surplus of the central government rose steadily from Vl.V J .SJ VLA .L&L VV~. I U' 0 ,) 4IJ-L.LLX LL4 CULA .LVJ 7.L +I J LLP .LO tentatively estimated at $3.3 billion, This has been made possible by a -----------------IP%e'7 -- w ani n r revnue averageIg aerang 8 Abut oneird omfatU with a rise in current expenditure averaging 6%. About one-third of the - 28 - increase in revenues derives from import duties as the result of the expand- ing level of trade, improved collections, and some higher rates. Another third comes from the business tax which underwent a major reform in 1960. These two tax sources together now account for over half of total revenue, as against less than 40% in 1957. Income tax receipts went up two and a half times in the seven fiscal years 1957-64 1/, and in the first half of fiscal 1565 were up by 25% over the same period of 1964. However, they still only account for around 10% of total revenue. Export tax receipts fell between the fiscal years 1957 and 1963, but as the result of the record rice and tin exports in 1964, they rose to a new high in that year, which may even be exceeded in fiscal 1965. The rost important single factor in the sharp revenue growth of fiscal 1965 appears to be a strong rise in collections of import duties and business tax (which mainly affects imports)* This has been substantially larger than the rise in total imports which suRaests that a further important imnrovement in tax administration has been achieved. Finally, there has also been a large increase this year in "non budeetarv receintsn. which rnbahlv innlidps thA sizeable amount of funds from the estate of the former Prime Minister which have been Aornirpd by the gnvernentP 70- T?t%- +Ii cnr-n rn -"_ - 4 o 14 Ir-li, +V-+ + tax rates will go up at a much slower rate than in the recent past, As noted, the gror?tb rate in rea Jnco=ne Js 24k~ely to slow, down to around 51 between 1964 and 1970 as against an average of 9 in the past two year.s, kLU.. ~ V4.1 L0 AM1J.A ULLV kU LV.L .ULt1 LvlU .LLuJJ1UVV,U Vj.. a 1L")JQVAL.1:6WVLL still remain, it is unlikely that this factor can make the same relative well be economically justified to make at least a moderate reduction in export taxes on rice -in tAS priud to provide a greater incentive for production. Moreover, non-budgetary receipts may be expected to fall to more normul level in the future On ti basis, it woula De surprising i1 the growth of current revenue did not slowdown to around 5% annually in the next several. years. 80. On the other hand, current government expenditure will probably go up at a rate of ocuyo annualLy from the estimated 1yo0 level, if current development outlays are to be increased at the rate indicated earlier. Even this would require holding down the growth in outlays in defense and general administration below the 7.5% growth rate of recent years. Interest on puolic debt held outside the Central Bank will probably double in the next several years if use of external loans and bond sales to the public are to be increased as planned. On balance this would mean a reduction in the current surplus from about :2.3 billion in 1963/64 and V3.3 billion estimated for 1964/05 to about V2,0 billion by 1970, unless measures are taken to increase taxes. 1/ The fiscal year was the same as the calander year until 1961, when it was put on an October-September basis, - 29 - State Enterprises 81. Another important source of public sector savings is the surpluses of state enterprisese These have risen in the aggregate from around 0600 million in 1961/62 to 800 million in 1963/64. (Earlier data are not available). The most important of these are the public power entities established several years ago, the railway, port and telephone organizations, the tobacco monopoly, the Government's teak momopoly and the lottery organizationo There are also a large number of government manufacturing enterprises, but most of these have not made much contribut- ion to financing their own investment* 82. Several of the state enterprises should show a substantial increase in cash generation over the next four years. particularly the Yanhee Electricity Authority and the Metropolitan Electricity Authority, as the result of increased earnings. Both the State Railway and the Port Authority should also be able to expand their current surpluses at least moderately as the result of more efficient mnerations. as well as increased activityo In the case of the manufacturing sector, the govern- ment could realize addit.ona1 fnnds. mit.how hv asl at mnof itsprent enterprises, or by improving efficiency. In all, it would not seem excessively r%ntJm4.+Ar- +.%ny-pronect arse n e%otal curyre,nt. surluo state enterprises from around 800 million in 1964 to Y1,100 million by 1070 Z97O0 RP 'Wkn rny%f4+nl _~~+,a, -P e4+n+- a.r, A en4 es l-I~ n,,- nc 44 rd current surpluses in recent years by an average of :V700 million annuallyo .LAI.Ln~ 4ID.- VW X. IiUJ VAUJLL -VVV L% A VJ Wav~ V. .LV.V.Lr1L LLL.~I 1 J' LV J.VulJ A"'L1 grants from the central government, As a result, the total resources by around , 200 million annually in the past several years, and many of WnuM nave 1uJu up Large cash baLancebO A Large part of tnebe UU.anceU is not subject to much central government control, W&hile a reasonable Uegree of autonomy is clearly required for efficient operations by these enterprises the degree of autonomy enjoyed by many of them probably contri- butes significantly to an inefficient use of public funds. Efforts are being made to increase the extent of central government control and there are inducationes that some of these balances were turned over to the govern- ment in the fiscal year 1964/65. Local Governments 84. Current revenues and expenditures of local governments have both risen rapidly in recent years, mainly as the result of automatic allocation of a share in the business tax to these authorities, However, their current surplus has remained at around 7100 million and the bulk of their capital outlays has. been met by transfers and loans from the central government, totalling about 1300 million in recent years. A moderate increase in the current surplus of local governments should be possible over the next several years, given better collection of local taxes and some levelling off in the very rapid growth of current expenditure which has taken place in recent years. - 30 - ForeiRn Financing 85. Indications have already been given in Chapter IV of the extent of foreign financing of public sector investment in the recent past and the nossibilities for the next four vmar. An additional wnrd may be added here about the status of foreign financing arrangements. The undisbursed nortion mf lnnnq iph nnhlit qent near stands at about 9 Ai hn-llin and it seems probable that the great part will be disbursed in the next fonryars. Trrganin nn n Ta.T411 nko O'hv h^n+ i1.1 billion, the highways another Vl.1. billion, the railways V400 million in the next few years include additional irrigation and highway projects, U.VVIJ - J - &WL.iS .LV V.L I AJ.C&AL WL. ., jVV.V .U JIUIUQy J6U~JLAJLIU3 Bangkok drainage, and a second stage education project* These might total ove u'. v.'.un sL new -Loano L IPJO dLpU ugnJ.LII6 LI"O IIUg[LLUUU U.Lv UVIU.LaUeU in a timely fashion, disbursement on them might reach Vl.0 billion in the next five yearS, bringIg total dsbUursemens, incluLng those Irom loans already contracted to about $V7,0 billion in the next five years. This scale of foreign borrowing is considered reasonable on the expectation of continued efforts to speed up project preparation and to resolve the administrative difficulties which have slowed down project implementation and disbursements on existing l.oans, 86. Public sector amortization of existing loans reached $400 million in l96[, and will be at about W540 million in 196b and 7450 million in 1970. Repayments on new loans contracted in the next several years could raise this total to V600 million by 1968 and perhaps %700 million by 1970, even assuming that a much more moderate portion of this new debt will be on a medium term basis than was true of the last five years. 87, Grant financing of development projects has fallen in the current year to about 9450 million as against a peak of V'700 million in 1963. The latter reflected a large jump in disbursements on several highway projects and the teleconunications project which had been in progress for a number of years, and were completed in 1963 or early 1964. For the next few years, it seems likely that grant disbursements for development purposes will average no more than Y,400 million, and may decline further by 1970. 88. After allowing for all these financial possibilities, an important gap would remain if total investment were to achieve the levels indicated in Chapter IV The main elements may be summarized below - - 31 - Table The Public Sector Financial Gap (billion baht) Fiscal Years 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1968 1970 Actuals Est, Projections Central Government Ordinary revenue 7.2 7.9 8.5 9e5 1100 12,6 14.0 Non budgetary revenue 0.2 0.2 0.3 OAh 0.8 0.4 0.6 Total current revenue U 9 T3 Current exnenditures 5.8 6.1 607 7.6 8 10.9 12A Current surplus 1,6 2,0 2.1 2.3 3,3 2,1 2,0 Sinlim mf state ent. O( 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 11 Surplus of local govt. 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 02 0.2 0.3 Total niihl qnving. 9,A 9A 9 3O 2 )b3 1 1 J, Foreign grants 0.3 0.5 0.7 o5 o4 o4 0.3 Forden loans , 090 1.0 1.1 0,8 16 2,2 Less debt repayment -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -o.4 -0.6 -0.7 Total ofP abovetr 2,9 a~ r( r_ =.. =I 5,2,7 Public sector investment 2.9 3.7 4.4 4.9 5.1 6.5 7.5 T)- c 4 - -1 7 A I ol cf -1 A~ '2 1 VOW~-U.G' lj. 1111 r,k wej w 0J.) dOl- - 0 *'*.0? 89. It may be seen that the overall financing by the public sector was met durug the past several years almoUs entirely from the 0ources listed above, Bond sales to the savings bank and the general public fully covered or more than covered the moderate def-cits of 1Y13-ou So Uhat there was no resort to inflationary finance during this period. Indeed as already noted, there was a substantial deflationary impact from govern- ment finance in most of these years, In the fiscal year 1965, this may total V8o0 million, since bond sales to the public and savings bank had already reached $600 million in the first eight months of the year. This compares with Dona sales outside the commercial banks of XU00 mili1on in 1963 and 1964, However, it does not seem likely that these sales can continue at the recent rate, if income growth declines as indicated, A reasonable projection might be for sales to level out at around V800 million for the next few years, and then perhaps rise to 91000 billion by 1970. On this basis, there would be a deficit of %1,0 billion by 1968 and 1.3 billion in 1970 to be financed by use of bank credit or new taxation,, Bank Credit, Exchange Reserves and New Taxes 900 Given the competing claims of the private sector for bank credit in the next four years, it is unlikely that the government could borrow any substantial amount from the banking system without either unduly restricting private sector growth or creating pressure on exchange reserves* However, with reserves of $640 million at present, Thailand can certainly afford some draw-down. Indeed, the government has allowed for a use of reserves of around $80-$100 million over the next four or five years. This still would leave a Prudent safety marain at the end of the period, about 60% of the import level which might be expected by then. These - 32 - resources could thus cover virtually the entire deficit implied here for 1966-69. (92.0 billion. after allowing for bond sales to the public)a However, assuming that the reserve draw-down is to stop by 1970, the annual ian to be cnvered from domestic sources would rise to T1.3 billion or moreo 91. Thailand's recent performance in tax collections has been very imnreWs4+.ih +.ntal revenues r4min- from lens than 13%< nf NP in 1PA1 to 14% in 1964 and probably to more than 151p in 1965. It is possible that revenues from existing taxes will nT4411 k+ v4 o f+.% +t.han rJJP- hEn+ as indicated above, this seems unlikely. In any event, it would seem VV. V .LJ1X W.LAW r %VJ. jMUIWLAV W%J e .JO. V VV IW. 511w UL"W W~ -.-- producing additional revenue by 1970 or sooner. An additional 1.3 billion in tax revenue in '19770 woul.d bring the totaCL- to aboJut J./OUA GNP in that year. This would seem to be quite attainable, in view of L1 recen1' UVL'U. Financing Private Investment and the Oer-a.Ll Monetary Balance yco .LI private sector investment is to rise by >0 in the next ive years, a substantial increase in financial support would be required. In the past several years, the private sector has made increasing use of both foreign financing and bank credit. Long-term foreign investment reached 03350 million in 1963, and 000 million in 1964, as against much smaller amounts earlier. Equally important has been the increase in medium- term foreign loans to the private sector. On a net basis, these rose from $200 million in 1962 to V40 million in 1963 and g660 million in 1964, Unless the average tem of these credits is considerably lengthened, it is unlikely that the recent level of net inflows can be maintained, much less increased, without the accumulation of excessive total debts of this kind, The latter now stands at around $115 million, with annual repayments currently running at a rate of $35 million, Thus, for the future, it would seem reasonable to assume that net annual increases to such debt will drop to around t300 million, which would still bring total repayments up to around $45 million by 1970 if the average length of term was not increased, However, it would seem plausible to project a signi- ficant further rise in long-term foreign equity investment by 1970, so that the total net inflow from these sources might remain at about the $1.0 billion total of 1964. 930 This would still leave a major role to be played by domestic financial institutionso As noted, in the past several years bank credit to the private sector has been expanding at an average rate of around 165 annually. A continued rise of something close to this rate would seem needed if private sector investment is to expand adequately. This would mean an increase in the absolute expansion from around a1.6 billion in 1964 to twice that in 1968. Topether with the foreign financinL orojected. this would cover about 300 of the gross private investment or the same oronortion as 196h. However. the minstAnn rAnnins as tn whether the banking system could safely supply this magnitude of funds. An annual an-rth of +.hn monny annnly at Arin A% ulnd seem the ymt that nonld be permitted in this period without undue monetary pressure. This would in it+Q-al- n,-n4. n-y-oei-+. w r nv^ ^-P TY1 11 M1' 14yn nnniv1ir hkir '107() - 33 - Expansion of quasi-money and the capital accounts of the banks has been growing very rapidly in the past three years - averaging about V1.7 billion annually between 1961 and 1964. If this rate could be maintained, there should be sufficient funds to meet both the suggested private sector reantrements and still narnit some credit exnansion to the public sector. However, in 1964 and the first half of 1965, the growth rate nf these funds delinrd rcnif-cant1v esnitA thR hnnm anditions of that period, Thus, it seems quite possible that the annual increments of fiinr av41 hl e% +.ho hnnk4na n-nm may h -st+r hnc koly adcnia tot mnt the needs of the private sector, so that the marginal requirements of the nnhi4 sector would have + o me+ hw 4be mae +nvba Tinced 4ei may prove necessary for the public sector to raise taxes beyond the sector, External Finance 946. Even if the high level of exports achieved in 1964 can be maintained and .licreasedL modrael asO -'JLU-U-dL Mea"LVr '1hU.LUUUI. W I ILI "LLut need substantial capital inflow in order to finance an adequate increase in imports over the nex several years Total Laonb aUU grants to the public sector averaged above $90 million in the calandar years 1962-6. Tree exceoded the flows Imcluated in Table 4 Dy around PL> million partly because the latter is on a fiscal year basis, but mainly because they exclude grants used for defense, poilce and public aaministration) a For the next four or five years total grant receipts are not likely to exceed $20-42 million annually, while loan disbursements to the public sector might average about $60 million in the next two years, and then perhaps rise to $0 million by 1;68 and $110 million by 1970, As indicated, gross inflow to the private sector might plausibly be projected at $100 million by 1970 ($3~ million equity and $65 million loans) as compared with a 675 million average in the past two years. However, with rising debt service, the net inflow would go up much less, Indeed, on the basis of the assumptions made here, net capital inflow before use of reserves would remain at just about the same amount in 1968-1970 as the average for 1963-64-- that is, around $135 million. However, the increment to resources available for import financing would be substantially augmented, if as seems likely there is a shift from large annual accumulation of reserves in the past several years, to a moderate draw-down in the next several, This would permit a growth in imports of around 4.0% annually between the record level of 1964 and. 1970, AcUUaL a rroduuwju rL"anlui-Lug Q.0 L[purub (mdllion baht) Actuals Projections !963 1YO4 1Y9c 1yD0 imports of Goods and Services 641 720 855 95 Exports of Goods and Services 556 699 750 810 Dividend payments - 8 - 9 -15 -20 Interest on debt - 7 -13 -20 -25 Balance on current account -110 53 -1-0 -150 Foreign Grants 1/ 48 30 20 15 Private equity capital 18 20 35 35 Loans to private sector (gross) 44 71 6o 65 Loans to public sector (gross)2/ 52 51 80 110 Errors and omissions 32 11 15 10 Sub total gross inflow 197 -176 To- 23 Repayments of private sector -21 .439 45 -50 Repayments of public sector -16 -27 -35 -35 Net inflow from abroad 1 122 120 150 Use of reserves -45 -69 20 - Balance on caital account =I0 -5 05 I17 1/ Includes a sienificant a.mount of erant disbursements for defense. clice and public adinistration which is excluded fron the grant data in Table h 2/ These flows differ moderately from those shown in Table 4 mainly beanuse thn lattAr is on a fsnAl var basis,. 95. 'Imnort Lrnwth at this ratA shnuld bA adAnuate to 1rovide the expansion in supplies of raw materials and capital goods needed for an over-all growth in rpal ntnit hv 5-5% annually and of investment at aronndf 7% annually. Large further possibilities remain for import substitution -n foodstuifs (e,. f4h przduit suar coffn eca 1 whc4h should normi+. this category of imports to remain comparatively stable as it has for the there are significant possibilities for greater import substitution of co++^" Pnyf414mes n"A -nwnam nAak +anhA-nae44^wf4 Among manufacture goo ds., the recent investment in textiles, automcbile With these prospects, there should be adequate scope within the overall J.1"V.LOO per.LilLV U11port'SJ.LJ U.1L. LId.L 6UUUO lUV~ 1-LCO U 170 aULLV_J WILL,-;IL would be necessary to achieve the overall growth of investment assumed. 96. The problem of financing adequate import growth after 1970 may well be more difficul, for use of reserves cannot continue indefnely, and prospects for export growth after that are quite uncertain, Present - 35 - .LLJ-Log r ra in. L VoI JJUL J L-IS VJ.L FA.%A1ALW.LL CXU- 1L 06.L Z'V i L JJLV0.PV'-,UQ OU66ZOU LO&da. the country may do well to sustain a 4% growth in export earnings in the .L>f'gU* even gaven a con ub.urauLe xannoun .n new agrLuAura. expjorLob which are at present exported in small quantities, With this sort of growth in exports, an expansion of imports at even 47o annually woula requiue progressively larger net inflows of foreign capital in the coining decade. A projection on the basis of these assumptions indicates that the net inflow before payment of interest and dividends would have to rise from the $105 million assumed here for 1970 to nearly $200 million by 1978. If most of this increase were to be met by loans on conventional terms (long-terii to the public sector and medium-term to the private), gross inflows would have to rise from the $235 million projected for 1968 to over $400 million for 1978 in order to cover increased debt service. The latter would go up from $105 million (13% of exports) in 1970 to $240 million or 20% of the exports assumed for 1978. As a practical matter, it is considered unlikely that Thailand could obtain gross capital inflow of this magnitude. Obviously, the problem would be still greater if export grcwth were less than 4% or if required imports were more than that. One answer to this problem would be for Thailand to secure more favc'rable financing terms than assumed here to permit the required net inflow with lower gross totals. 97. However, it would be premature to conclude that Thailand will in fact face an external financing problem of this magnitude. For one thing exports might develop faster than projectedo For another, it may not prove feasible for Thailand to increase its investment effort at the rate indicated, As indicated earlier, important improvements have been made during recent years in development policies, and in the preparation and implementation of projects. However. substantial further improvements will be required to achieve the sort of increase in outlays described earlier on a reasonably efficient basis. If these cannot be achieved. the economic growth rate would soon begin to slow down, but so would the abilLty of the economv to utilize increased foreion anital nffectivelvy Durina the next year or two, it should be possible to judge much better what the Innar run prnsnnts are both with rnnpnt to Anorts and tn the abIlity of the economy to increase investment and to make effective use of foreign an4+al. It+.h renoet to the latter +.two main + wi+. 11 he the rate at which projects are prepared in a manner suitable for external financingp and the ratep na. which oY4RtAna pr^ijects. aren 4Tplant.'M STATISTICAL ANNEX Table I External Public Debt Outstanding. II Estimated Contractual Service Payments on External Public Debt. III External Private Debt Outstanding. IV Estimated Contractual Payments on External Private Debt. V Population in 19h7 and 1960 and Proiected. VT Tndustrial Tiqtribution off -Phn1nvmnt in CPn.qn. Ypar. VII Industrial Origin of Gross National Product at constant price& VIII Industrial origin of Gross Domestic Product at 1962 constant IX Produc tion of Principal crops and Forestry products. X Indicators of Hining, bnufacturing and Electzicity 1.LVCILtAV U - .L £J'JJWLV Y~ L 1,y "A. -JJ.1 L :I4J.L hL "I.L. V O-L UU ,JJ. ULLutZle 1JUJILUOU-L UAAjJJ. 1V 0 XII value Of exports by principal comumouties at constan 1962 prices. XIV Quantity of Exports of Principal Commodities, XV Value of Imports by Principal Category. XVI Quantity of Selected Imports. XVII Balance of Payments. XVIII Changes in Factors Affecting Money Supply. XIX Central Government Revenue (actual). XX Central Government E=penditure (actual). (Cont.i nirv1 STATISTICAL ANNEX (Continued) Table XXI Central Government Current Expenditure on Economic and Social Services. XKII Financing of Central Government Overall Deficit. XXIII Total Public Sector Capital Formation. XXIV State Enterprisest Capital Formation. XXV Local Governments' Capital Formation. - ? Q ~ .-AVW-L V9 A ;- - -.:rL -- val.J. -P-L Nil or 4JigL.Lcan t. Table 1: THAILAND - EXTERNAL MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM /1 PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF JUNE 37 1965 Debt Renavable in Foreirn Currency (Tn tanict mf TlS.. -dllar AnivaIAnts) Debt outstanding jTune TO104c Item Net of Including uniA4buvseA i" a4oni-ead rrivately-placea deot, (Uj4.3Y 7u43y 1BRD loans 96,66 l 163,61 U.S. Government loans 22,73b 70,239 Export-Import Bank 19,320 38,539 AID 3,418 31,700 Loans from West Germany lo,895 38,129 /1 Debt with an original or extended maturity of one year or more. 2 Of which $17,187,369 is guaranteed by Thailand as to foreign exchange transfer only. Statistics Division IBRD-Economics Department SAntembr 20. 1964 Table 2: THAILAND - ESTIMATED CONTRACTUAL SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF JUNE 30, 1965 /l Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents) rage 1 GRAND TOTAL DEBT OUTST (BEGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUDING AMORTI- YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL 1966 320,099 25,388 10,546 35,934 1968 271,209 26,212 12,815 39,027 1970 221,682 21,172 12,421 33,593 1971 200,510 16;489 11,298 27,787 1972 184,021 15,953 lo,446 26,399 1973 168,068 16,341 9,598 25,939 1974 151,727 15,826 8,742 24,568 1975 135,901 16,400 7,897 24,297 1976 119,501 15,522 7,032 22,554 1977 103,979 15,589 6,229 21,818 1978 88,390 15,634 5,411 21,045 1979 72,756 16,309 4,126 20,435 PRIVATELY-PLACED DEBT UEBT UUTST (BEGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUDING AMORTI- YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL 1965 70,439 /2 14,802 876 15,678 1966 58,028 15,117 771 15.888 1967 42,911 14,078 682 14,760 1968 28,833 14,095 582 14,677 1969 14,737 8,732 462 9,194 1970 6,005 5,697 325 6.022 1971 307 61 17 78 1972 246 61 13 74 1973 184 61 10 71 1974 123 61 6 67 1975 61 61 3 64 Table 2: THAILAND - ESTIMATED CONTRACTUAL SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL ~EDIUM- AND TLdN-TERM UICDT UTTANDIJ TN TILIMTN, TNDTSBURSED AS OF JUNE 30, 1965 /1 (CONT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents) Page 2 IBRD LOANS (BEIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUiDING ARI- YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION gTEREST TOTAL 1965 161,817 /2 6,208 6,430 12,638 1966 158,597 ~ 6.500 7,343 13,83 1967 152,097 6,336 7,855 14,191 1968 115 761 7b20 8,347 15,767 1969 138,341 8,,453 8,584 17>037 1970 129,88 8,790 8,349 17,139 1971 121,098 9,220 7,874 17,094 1972 111,878 8,550 7,383 15,933 1973 103,328 8,993 6,898 15,891 19714 90,335 9,515 6,386 15,901 1975 84,820 10,051 5,844 15,895 1976 71, 769 1n40,D 5,2371 A5,89 1977 614,147 11,240 4,667 15,907 197R C2907 1 1,3 1.3 1n,7n 1979 41,664 11,87L 2,935 14,809 U.S. GOVT. LOANS - TOTAL (BEGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCUDING AMOfr i- YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL 1965 70,239 /2 1,724 1,242 2,966 1966 68,095 ~ 1.724 1.410 3.13h 1967 66,371 2-064 l,92 3,98 1968 64.307 2.665 2.99 9221 1969 61,642 3,417 2,579 53996 1970 58.225 3.922 ;~>~ - 1971 4,303 7,297 2,1 6 8 1976 34,878 2,1483 1,361 3,864 1977 32,395 2,525 1,248 3,773 1973 29,870 27 1,831 3,698 1979 27,303 2,611 1,015 3,626 Table 2: TRAILAND - ESTIMATED CONTRACTUAL SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EKTERNAL MEnT1M. ANn T.oNr-TERm PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF JUNE 30, 1965 Al (CONT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents) Page 3 U.S. GOVT. LOANS - EXIM (BEGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD T/1f T TnTrT A UflWrT .11.VijLJV1J.L11%.Z JU1VKL1..L - YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL 1965 38,539 /2 1,724 1,181 2,905 1966 36,395 1,724 1,183 2,907 1967 34,671 2,064 1,396 3,460 1968 32,607 2,665 1,818 4,483 1969 29,942 3,266 1,661 4,927 1970 26.676 3.266 1.476 4.742 1971 23,410 3,266 1,292 4,558 1972 20.1U6 3.266 1,106 4.372 1973 16,878 3,175 922 4,097 1974 13,703 2.100 758 2.858 1975 11,603 2,100 637 2,737 1976 9.q03 1.2AA q28 1-791 1977 8,237 1,266 456 1,722 1978 6-971 1,266 382 1,ALA 1979 5,705 1,266 310 1,576 US rOT LONSr - M AI DEBT OUTST tn1-rPMWT OW rVITan1 DAvMMIMC nrTAin D'vrNn INCLUDING AMORTI- WEA R TnTQTTRZD 7AMTrAM T'K7qT1D f-1M AT 1965 31,700 /2 - 61 61 1966 31,700 - 227 227 1967 31,700 - 528 528 1968 31,700 - 738 738 1969 31,700 151 918 1,069 1970 31,549 656 1,048 1,704 1971 30,893 1,031 1.019 2.050 1972 29,862 1,066 985 2,051 1973 28,796 1.102 948 2.O4O 1974 27,694 1,140 912 2,052 1975 26,554 1.179 873 2.042 1976 25,375 1,217 833 2,050 1977 24.158 1.259 792 2,051 1978 22,899 1,301 749 2,050 1979 21,598 1 3h 70 20n Table 2: THAILAND - ESTIMATED CONTRACTUAL SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL sawseeS amnvammNTTETYN ""I fV ATRIO MAS A ITNT'lT*ThjTTOMl TTHTMrCDTT0CVr1 ELLUM- ANJ LUNU-1EW1 rUD"uj LD± LULOAAHULHU 10.LUU@U UEIULUDULUA" AS OF JUNE 30, 1965 /1 (coNT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents) Page 4 WEST GERMAN LOANS DEBT OUTST (BEGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUDING AMORTI- YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL 1965 35,379 /2 - 407 407 1966 -5,37Q 290 1,02 126 1967 35,132 1,024 1,315 2,339 1968 31 2,032 1, 30 3 ,36 1969 32,076 2,713 1,345 4,058 107n g0 fAT 9 -741 1 992 1 OR4 1971 26,600 2,911 1,096 4,007 10 7D 4A0 M r1 offo ') OO 1973 20,679 3,010 820 3,830 17f5 i Lf _9U7 %JuLV UVV ).9U7V 1975 1,659 3,009 540 3,549 -1907Z6I' Ze,6n 21 .7 ).00^ 2,817 1977 9,233 1,824 314 2,138 197817,409P1,824 2 45 206 1979 5,$585 1,824 176 2,000 /1 Includes service payments on all debts listed in Table 1 except the following for which repayment terms are not available: $2,143.846 unallocated Dortion of IBRD loan to the Industrial Finance Corporationg $2,750,000 West German Government loan. /2 Outstanding as of June 30. 1965: payments are for entire year 1965. Statistics Division IBRD-Economics Department September 20, 1965 Table 3: TTAIANT - EXTERNAT PRIT " 00 OTTAimIANTTI TITTTLTT MTTTTOTDC AS OF JUNE 30, 1965 Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (In thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents) Debt outstanding Item June 30, 1965 Net of Including undisbursed undisbursed TOTAL EXTERNAL PRIVATE DEBT 111186 11879 Suppliers' credits 107,321 112,691 Loans from parent companies to local subsidiaries 20,022 22,099 Unspecified o7,299 90,592 U.S. Government loans - Export-Import Bank 3,865 4,188 Statistics Division IBRD-Economics Department September 14, 1965 Table 4: THAILAND - ESTiMATED CONTRACTUAL SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL PRIVATE DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF JUNE 30, 1965 /1 /3 Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency %.Li L,1UUbidL1UZ U1. U .0. UU.LJ.&Ll V%4ULVC±L-Lts PAGE 1 DEBT OUTST (BEGIN OF PERIOD) tPAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUDING AMORTI- YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION 'INTEREST TOTAL 1965 112,776 /2 26,7(36 L,0UUO 27,784 1966 102,242 22,888 1,618 24,506 1967 79,354 18,529 1,527 20,056- 1968 60,825 18,359 1,277 19,636 1969 42,466 l1,553 Y49?z 2,502U 1970 22,913 7,233 719 7,952 1971 15,680 6,841 499 7,340 1972 8,839 5,832 292 6,124 1973 3,007 1,468 177 1,645 1974 1,539 1,218 74 1,292 1975 321 321 11 332 SUPPLIERS' CREDITS - TOTAL DEBT OUTST (BEGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUDING AMORTI- YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL 1965 108,588 /2 26,229 937 27,166 1966 98,561 21,87(5 1,2 23,297 1967 76,686 17,641 1,386 19,027 1968 59,045 17,471 1,188 18,659 1969 41,574 18,661 910 19,571 1970 22,913 7,233 719 7,952 1971 15,680 6,841 499 7,340 1972 8,839 5,832 292 6,124 1973 3,007 1,468 177 1,645 1974 1,539 1,218 74 1,292 1975 321 321 11 332 Tahlp h! THATTANTD - ESTfMATED CONTRACTUAL SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL PRIVATE DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF JUNE 30, 1965 /1 /3 (coNT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency (in thousands of U.S. dollar equivalents) _______PAGE 2 bUPPLIEkRA1 CREIT S Loans from parent companies to local subsidiaries DEBT OUTST (BEGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUDING AMORTI- YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL 196196 /2 1-0O 081 li.91 1966 16,798 2,174 1,044 3,218 1967 11,624 2,914 988 3,902 1968 11,710 4,222 781 5,003 1969 7,88 252 495 2,647 1970 5,336 1,993 347 2,340 1071 3,343 1 70 21l 1 o15 1972 1,642 685 89 774 1974 639 318 33 351 SUPPLIERS' CREDITS DEBT OUTST Unspecified (BEGIN OF PERIOD) PAYMENTS DURING PERIOD INCLUTDING AMORTI- YEAR UNDISBURSED ZATION INTEREST TOTAL 1965 89,419 A2 2)4,819 356 25,175 1966 81,763 19,701 378 20,079 1967 62,062 14,727 398 15,125 1968 47,335 13,249 407 13,656 1969 34,086 16,509 415 16,924 1970 17,577 5,240 372 5,612 1971 12,337 5,140 285 5,425 1972 7,197 5,147 203 5,350 1973 2,050 1,150 122 1,272 1974 900 900 41 941 Table 4: THAILAND - ESTIMATED CONTRACTUAL SERVICE PAYMENTS ON EXTERNAL PRIVATE DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF JUNE 30, 1965 /1 /3 (coNT.) Debt Repayable in Foreign Currency PAGE 3 U.S. GOVT. LOANS - EXPORT-IMPORT BANK DEBT OUTST (PnrTM nF PVRTnn1 PavLwE2 nITPUrN. PrEPrn INCLUDING AMORTI- VVAD TTKMT9TOQTWn 7ArpTn TAKTPrQT WAPAT 1965 4,188 /2 986 234 1,220 1966 3,681 1,013 196 1,209 1967 2,668 888 141 1,029 1968 1,780 888 89 977 1969 892 892 39 931 /1 Includes service payments on all debts listed in Table 3 except the follow- ing fo-r which repayment terms are not available: $1,173,000 Khonkaen Jute Mill loan $111,000 Thasala Mining Co. loan $11,000 Lever Bros. loans $675,000 Singer Industries loans $2,000.000 Esso Standard loans /2 Amount outstandino as of Jiune 30 1965; nqvmpnt ar for AntArp vp 1 lAC /3Assux1int.i rn in mrearat.ion of pa,%ments.- mra1i hnqr rnn- ~fr mation supplied by9ank of Thailand. IBRD-Economics Department tFW JUWA I 4 .AAJ4, ~ ' Table V Population in 1947, 1960 and Projected (Thousands) Age Groups 1947 1960 1965 1970 1975 190 Census Census 14 and less 7,375 12,134 14,528 17,154 20,338 24,477 15 - 19 1,95 2,635 3,116 3,910 4,707 5,518 20 - 24 1,547 2,299 2,599 3,081 3,874 4,672 25 - 29 1,249 2,055 2,264 2,567 3,050 3,843 30 - 34 1,146 1,710 2,018 2,229 2,535 3,020 35 - 39 1,006 1,401 1,670 1,978 2,192 2,499 40 - 44 831 1,146 1,358 1,625 1,933 2,148 45 - 49 691 961 1,100 1,309 1,572 1,877 50 - 54 511 803 910 1,046 1,252 1,510 55 - 59 399 637 747 852 985 1,184 60 and over 741 1,209 1,467 1,786 2,141 2,515 Total 17,443 26,990 31,777 37,537 44,579 53,291 Rate of growth (N p.a.) 2.9 1./ 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 Sources: Population Getsus: 1947 and 1960; H. GILLE and Thip C!ALOTHORN, "The Denmographicnutlook of Thailand c=nd om licatins, Bankok November 1963; A. DAS GUPTA and others, "Population Projection of Thailand", Bangkok, January 1963. Not : The 197 Census understates totrl population by perhaps 75. The 1960 Census was adjusted for underenumeration by Das Gupta. The declines at a rate more moderate than in recent years and that 1/ Growth over adjusted 1947 total. Table VI 1/ Industrial Distribution of Emnlovment in Census Years - (Thousands) BangkokW Rest of 1 9I7-2/ Thnnhiri .onirnt.Y Ttal Ag,rirulture and livP.t.nrk 3/ ).(-7K 87 A A 47 Forestry 8 -3 35 Fishing $3 ni"hl0 T'i nigi a-ndl qrm-ring OR2 MMnI-nn- I A I f 1 [ of which: of which: Rice Milling 4 28 32 J4 I. ~ ~.LVA U -L4 4e Textiles and clothing $3 38 93 131 Wouuu an D.Arniure e22 00 o of which: Sawmills 4 22 26 raper au prInuving 11 3 ILL Transport and equipment 5 11 15 26 Other metals and metal products 10 11 12 23 Basic Chemicals 2 2 1 3 Rubber products 1 1 5 Other 49 15 33 08 Construction 8 19 49 68 Commerce 707 191 553 74 Transport and communication 66 50 114 164 Education 70 23 118 141 Government 195 5/ 97 164 261 Personal services 43 73 122 195 Other services 26 18 29 47 Miscellaneous 11$ 40 196 236 Total 610$ 729 8323 9052 1/ From age 15 and upward. Census data for 1947 which give employment from 14 and upward were adjusted to eliminate age group 14 by assuming a) equal distribution between each year for year group 10-14, b) an employment percentage of 60% as suggested by the 1960 Population Census results, and c) that all youngsters aged 14 were employed in agriculture (136,000 males and 134.,000 females). (See continuation of footnotes next page) - - - n ni, C, -- -- --- .1 - - LI -' A -- -- 21 ie L7fa( Uensus unaerstates total popuiation ana empioymenG. 3/ The Censuses report employment in agriculture and livestock at 7,562,100 in 1947 and 10,202,300 in 1960. The number of women in these totals (3,787,00 and 5,184,300 respectively) exceeds the number of men. For the sake of international comparability, the figures in the table have been adjusted by assuming that the ratio of women to men in agriculture was 31% as in the Philippines. This Philippine ratio is derived from a statistical household survey generally considered as reliable. 4/ Calculated by assuming the same annual growth in numbers between 1947 and 1954 as between 1954 and 1960 as indicated in Educational Statistics of Thailand, 1954-1960. 5/ Net of employment in education. Sources: Statistical Yearbook No. 22 (1945-1955) Vol. 1, Thailand Population Census. 1960 and Educational Statistics of Thailand., 1954-1960. Table VII Industrial Origin of Gross National Product at Current Market Prices (Billion baht) 1955 1956 -1957 -1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 A13 15.8 18Æ 1. 180 1 21-0 21.2 2.0 22.L Crops 10.7 12.0 :13.9 11.6 14.0 15.3 16.3 17.0 17.3 18.6 Paddy 4.0 5.1 6.0 3.9 5.2 4.9 6.1 7.6 7.6 8.4 Other 6.7 6.9 7.9 7.7 8.8 10.4 10.2 9.4 9.7 10.2 Livestock 2.1 -1.5 2.2 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.2 Fisheries o.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.9 "orestry 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7 Mining & Quarrying 0,.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 Manufacturing 4.4 4.8 5.3 4.9 5.6 5.7 6.4 7.3 7.9 8.8 Rice and saw mills 1.2 :1.4 1.6 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.3 Other 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.4 4.7 5.3 5.8 6.5 Construction 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.2 Electricity & Water Supply 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 Transportation & Communication 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.4 Road vehicles 1.1 L.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.6, 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 Railways 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.h 0.4 0.5 Other 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Wholesale & Retail Trade, Banli.ng Insurance and Real. Estate 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.7 11.2 11.7 13.0 13.6 14.6 Owmership of Dwellings 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 Public Administration & Defense 1/ 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.6 3.9 Other services 2/ 2.6 27 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.6 _3.9 43 45 Gross Domestic Product 38.9 41.6 45.1 43.0 48.4 53.6 57.4 61.2 65.7 71.0 Net Factor Income from abroad - 0.1 - 0.2 0.3 0.1 - 0.1 -. 0.1 -. 0.]. 0.1 - Gross National Product 38.8 4l.4 44.8 42.9 48.3 53.5 57.3 61.1 65.7 71.0 (For footnotes see next page) Table VII (Cntinued) 1/ Excluding education and health. 2/ Including education and health. Source: National Income Division, Office of the National Economic Development Board. Some series were adjusted by the fiission as indicated in the following note. Note : The output of paddy has been attributed to thb years in which the bulk of the crop is sold. Value added by rice mills in 1951-1955 has been adjusted upward for apparent undervaluation in these years. Value added by road vehicles has been recalculated on the basis of number of vehicles registered (estimated for 1951, 1952-1963) and of data on Value added per type of vehicle adjusted so as to eliminate discontinuities in the series. For ownership of dwellings, a series in constant 1962 prices (see Note to Table VII) has been adjusted by means of an index combining indices of rents in Bangkok and the cost of building materials; the rent index reflects an extremely rapid increase in rents in Bangkok between 1952 and 1956 which was not typical of the rest of the country. Table VIII Industrial Origin of Gross Domestic Product at 1962 Constant Market Prices (Billion baht) 1955 1956 1957 ;L958 1959 ;1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Agriculture 15.9 16.9 19.4 16.3 18.7 1L9.9 21.2 21.2 23.6 25.9 Crops 11.4 13.L 15.1 12.4 14.8 -15.8 16.8 17.0 19.0 20.4 Paddy 5.2 6.8 7.7 5.1 6.6 6.3 7.3 7.5 8.8 9.7 Other 6.2 6.6 7.h 7.3 8.2 9.5 9.5 9.5 10.2 10.7 Livestock 2.1 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.2 Fisheries 0.8 o.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.8 Forestry 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 Mining & Quarrying 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 Manufacturing 5.1 5.5 6.0 5.4 5.9 6.2 6.7 7.3 8.1 9.0 Rice and saw mills 1.6 1.9 2.1 1.5 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 Other 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.5 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.5 Construction 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.0 Electricity & Water Supply 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4. Transportation & Communication 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.7 3.1 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.9 5. 4 Road vehicles 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.6 Railways 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 o.4 0.h 0.4 0.h 0.4 0.5 Other 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Wholesale & Retail Trade, Banking Insurance and Real Estate 9.2 9.2 9.1 8.9 9.8 11.4 11.8 13.0 13.7 14.8 Ownership of Dwellings 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 Public Administration & Defense 1/ 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.7 4.0 Other services 2.9 29 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.9 h.3 4.6 Gross tomestic Product h2..3 .8 48.3 U.8 50.3 55.3 58.3 6.1 67.0 L Excluding education and health. 2f Including education and health. Table VIII (CoWntied) Sources: Official Data adjusted as indicated to Note to Table VI and expressed at 1962 prices as indicated blaw Note: With the exceptions noted below, series were deflated by means of the retail price .instead of the. wholesald rprice Index. . Although both indices are excessively weighted by foodstuffs, particilrly Rice, this is somewhat less so in the case of retail price index. Its use, however, tends to damp down growth in real output. Agriculture: Tonnage valued at 1962 farm prices. Manufacturing: Tonnage of.paddy milled multiplied by value added per ton in 1962; value added by saw mills deflated by means of a weighted index of timber output. Transport and Communications: Value added by type, of motor vehicle in 1962 multiplied by numbers of vehicles in other yearso Ownership of Dwellings: Because of erratic Vehawior, the official figures were replaced by a series which assumes a 3% annual growth rate with the original total for 1962 as base year. Table IX Production of Principal_Crops & Forestry Products Thousand metric tons or m Crop Year ending in: 1950 1952 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 19641/ 1965 Paddy 6684 7325 8297 5570 7123 7055 7789 8177 9259 10168 9625 Rubber ... 127 136 11 174 171 186 196 199 211 Corn 27 45 137 186 317 544 598 665 858 950 Tapioca 256 257 418 487 1083 1222 1726 2077 2111 2025 Kenaf 5 13 18 30 50 181 339 13h 212 240 3002' Jute ... 1 2 2 4 6 12 7 7 Sugar Cane 839 1476 4147 4309 4988 5382 3983 3155 4733 4750 Coconut ... 694 1309 1150 1905 1040 1054 1098 1147 1238 Peanut 63 76 118 121 124 152 108 112 113 120 Munt bean 32 24 41 42 6 60 l1 51 55 54 Castor bean 3 10 32 29 34 43 33 44 53 Q5 Soy bean 12 21 27 22 23 26 24 30 33 40 Garlic ... 1 1 15 18 28 34 43 36 Onion ... 6 6 15 14 39 I1 50 37 Chilli ... 39 42 24 27 47 70 74 77 Fruits ... 2089 2416 2487 2562 2639 2718 2800 2884 Vegetables .. 752 870 895 922 950 979 1008 1038 Tobacco (green leaf) 21 2 66 66 67 74 48 48 55 48 Cotton 20 24 36 35 37 46 38 41 49 Teak (mQ) ... 2j4 188 181 164 154 l06 123 144 116 Yang (m3) ... 267 380 418 316 321 319 378 462 460 Firewood (m3) ... ... 1204 1123 1147 1191 1317 1446 1480 1400 Charcoal (m3) 620 609 505 603 628 560 762 664 655 640 1J Preliminary 21 Unofficial Estimate Source: Agricultural Statistics of Thailand and information supplied by Bank of Thailand. Table X Indicators of Mining, Mafacturing and Electricity Outpu Unit 1952 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Mining ~in . '000 tons L3.1 17.6 19.1 10.9 13.h 16.7 18.h 20.3 21.6 21.62f Wolfram-Y 1000 tons 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.h 0.5 o.k 0.2 0.u Lead ore '000 tons 2.5 9.4 7.1 2.3 3.3 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.0 8.12! Manganese ore '000 tons ... 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 2.9 6.5 1.10_ Iron ore r000 tons 2.9 5.8 9.0 14.7 6.1 11.5 55.8 h5.3 15.7 190.92/ Fluorite '000 tons - - - - - 3.5 .8 10.7 29.2 Gypsum '000 tons ... ... 2.1 5.7 8.0 13.0 12.0 21.0 23.9 1.9 . Marl '000 tons ... ... 413.4 467.7 459.5 h34.5 718.5 936.2 965.8 1058.32. Lignite '000 tons - 21.5 103.1 109.5 107.8 108.h 135.2 137.1 103.6: Manufacturing Cement '000 tons 2h7.0 398.0 02.0 499.0 566.0 543.0 800.0 968.0 997.0 lo59.i2 Gunny bags Million units ý. 3.6 3.6 .5 5.1 6.9 8.8 10.8 23.1 33.5 Cotton textiles Million sq. yards ... ... ... ... ... ... 86.6 1.09.4 1.0.0 18h,.5 Sugar '000 tons ... Sh.0 65.0 80.0 120.0 140.0 150.0 151.3 125.0 168-0 Tobacco '000 tons ... 8.5 8.8 8.5 8.4 8.9 9.7 10.5 10.1 1o., Paper '000 tons ... 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 3.6 5.9 7.9 13.6 Glass '000 tons - - - - - - ... 24.0 .. Automobile assembly 1000 units - - - - - - - 2.1 . Electric Power/ Million KwH Total generated ... 271 318 3,0 4l4 473 601 709 of which Bangkok5/ 120 222 258 279 320 363 hh1 531 637 827 (For footnotes see next page) Table X (contId) :If 72% concentrates. Production in first quarter 1964 and 1965 was: Tin 5.8 6.1 "Iron ore 4.2 109.6 Lead ore 0.8 5.2 Lignite 33.4 27.4 Manganese Cement 234.5 265.8 ore 1.5 5.8 Gunny bags 7.7 9.8 Concentrates. Public generators only. Beginning May 1964 includes Bhumipol Dam. Sources: Bank of Thailand and National Energy Authority. For manufacturing the information was obtained through the Bank of Thailand from Sian Cement Co., Ltd. and Jalaprathan Co., Ltd; Gunny Bag factories; Weaving Orga-niza- tion, Textile Manufacturing Association of Thailand, and Weaving Association of Thailand; Thailand Sugar Cor- poration, Ltd; Thailand Tobacco Monopoly; Thai Paper Mill and Bang Pa.-In Paper Mill; Glass Organization. Table XI Value of Exports by Principal Commodities (Million Baht) Jan. - June 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1964 1965 Rice 3943 2948 2576 2570 3598 3301 3477 4386 2382 2262 Rubber 1689 1326 2336 2579 2130 2111 1902 2060 987 1029 Tin 531 255 434 537 617 685 741 961 423 607 Kenaf and jute 47 70 88 230 626 579 358 495 234 448 Corn 74 183 250 551 597 502 828 1346 619 311 Tapioca and products .138 192 224 289 446 423 440 653 347 353 Su-total 6422 4974 59o8 6756 8o14 7601 7746 9901 4992 010 Teak 262 239 244 356 252 170 136 179 83 105 Other wood 89 68 57 102 69 61 78 93 49 41 Live cattle 58 59 87 100 120 103 81 ]L15 62 56 Hides and skins 54 47 71 82 83 70 53 63 33 31 Eggs (fresh) 62 45 72 127 129 38 21 33 21 23 Castor seed 87 42 77 71 94 124 98 90 65 38 Mung beans 23 24 37 49 60 62 59 84 40 57 Peanut s 54 59 46 39 52 56 57 50 23 25 Tobacco leaves lo 85 16 21 12 31 41 79 23 20 Kapok for wadding 4 52 60 68 82 102 108 123 53 46 Lac and lac seed 81 43 52 59 52 56 35 40 16 32 Salt 35 28 25 22 21 18 15 18 6 6 Sub-total 946 791 844 1095 1021 891 782 967 474 480 Other domestic exports 518 428 505 571 677 763 804 1234 610 666 Sub-total 1467 1219 1349 1666 1703 1654 1586 2201 1084 n46 Grand total 7889 6193 7257 8422 9717 9255 9332 12102 6076 6156 Re-exporti3 248 254 303 192 280 274 256 3ý52 164 113 Adjustment for balance of paymentt - 70 - 34 - 26 - 72 - 74 - 94 - 98 - 174 - 61 -89 Merchandise exports f.o.b. 8067 6413 7534 8542 9923 9435 9588 12280 6179 6180 (For footnotes see next page.) Table II (contId) For details see TabLe XII. Note: Trade returns for rice, rubber and tin in 1952 have been adjusted by multiplying the dollar values published in IFS by the average effective exchange rate for imports (see country notes on Thailand in the December 1995 issue of the IFS). The 1956 and 1957 trade returns for rice and. rubber have been adjusted for undervaluation, as reported in the IMF Balance of Payments Yearbook. A similar adjustment for rubber in the year 1952 was made by the Hiesion. Source: Annual Statements of Foreign Trade and Bank of Thailand. Table XI I Details ofr Value of "Other Domestic Exports"/ (Million Baht) 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Pigs and poultry 11 Fish, crustacea 69 36 29 34 40 4l 73 of which shrimps 0.7 0.1 1.2 3.h 3.1 9.2 46.3 94 Products of corn and rice 20 24 33 32 37 42 h0 Fruits, fresh and dried, nuts 17 21 2h 29 27 30 27 Beans, other than mung beans (includes soya beans) 6 7 15 17 17 14 2h± Vegetables, fresh and prepared 5 4 7 6 7 7 8 Spices, including chilli 28 13 33 35 31 35 27 Sugar 6 - 1 8 3h6 122 212 Molasses - 8 11 19 2[ 15 16 Vegetable oils 9 6 11 2 11 18 6 Seeds of kapok, cotton and sesame 29 4l h4 h3 h9 72 62 Peanut and copra cakes 11 11 16 14 19 27 22 Food waste for feed 10 12 31 l 11 11 21 Horns, bones, feathers, bristles 21 17 21 22 30 21 25 Gums, resins (not lac) 10 7 12 7 11 7 9 Charcoal 8 10 lb 18 14 11 13 Ores and metal waste (excl. tin) 56 11 8 23 21 14 16 Wood products, incl. plywood 1 6 8 6 Textile yarns and fabrics 14 11 10 23 24 28 35 Sarongs, shawls, etc. 1 2 h 6 13 12 16 C erent 15 13 15 1h 53 63 55 36 Precious stones, silverware 32 29 3h 36 3h 39 h7 Non-specifLed 136 131 84 127 14- 126 100 Total "Other domestic exports" 518 428 505 571 677 763 804 1234 1/ See Table XI, Source: Annual Statement of Foreign Trade, Monthly Reports of the Imports and Exports of Thailand and information supplied by Bank of Thailand. Table XIII Value of Exports by Principal Commodities at Constant 1962 Prices (Million baht) 1935/39 Jan.- June Average 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 196h 196. 1965 Rice 3586 4078 2942 2835 3124 ho93 3301 3614 4833 25981 2552 Rubber 378 1465 1h73 1896 1845 2007 2111 2032 2359 1141 1141 Tin 626 637 315 474 592 626 685 760 760 38 414 Kena. and jute - 36 67 91 150 349 579 306 394 202 323 Corn .. 68 173 252 547 603 502 791 1185 546 269 Tapioca and ]products _._._ 160 205 286 68 h23 443 714 390 361 Sub-tota-1 6388 5130 5753 65h 8146 7601 7946 10245 5257 5060 Teak 244 323 310 313 431 275 170 138 210 81 103 Other wood 7 85 98 61 103 61 61 70 (77) 38 36 Live cattle 13 54 57 87 95 115 103 73 111 61 53 Hides and skins 61 60 55 81 81 83 70 60 68 31 39 Eggs (fresh) 18 66 55 66 126 130 38 22 30 26 33 Castor seeds - 59 36 72 55 74 12h 92 83 62 37 Mung bean .. 31 21 45 68 78 62 61 93 h 74 Peanut s 48 59 49 38 51 56 53 h6 23 23 Tobacco leaves 5 74 69 14 20 13 31 4h 70 23 23 Kapoc - 28 43 66 73 92: 102 102 117 45 45 Lac and lac seed 23 43 20 26 34 32 56 44 42 19 31 Salt 30 33 35 30 25 18 16 19 53 58 Sub-total 901 856 715 1175 1029 891 775 97L 5a6 555 Total 7289 5986 6668 7698 9175 8492 8721 11216 5763 5615 Other (current prices ) 518 428 505 571 677 763 804 1234 610 666 Grand total 7807 6414 7173 8269 9852 9255 9525 12450 6373 6281 Sources: See Table XI. Table XIV Quantity of Exports of Principal Commodities (Thousand metric tons) 1935/39 Jan. -June lver age 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1964 1965 Rice 1380.7 1570.3 1132.9 1091.7 1202.8 1576.0 1271.0 1417.7 1896 1019 1001 Rubber 34.8 134.8 135.5 174.4 169.7 184.6 194.2 186.9 217 105 16: Tin 1/ 18.1 18.4 9.1 13.7 17.1 18.1 19.8 22,0 22 11 12 Kenaf and jute -14.8 27.6 37.3 61.8 143.5 239.9 125.8 162 83 133 corn .. 63.3 162.9 236.8 514.7 567.2 472.4 744.0 115 514 253 Tapioca and products .. 98.8 151.6 194.6 270.8 443.4 400.8 427.4 739 408 373 Teak ('000 m3) 57.1 75.7 72.6 73.3 100.9 64.5 39.8 32.2 49 19 24 Other wood ('000 m3) 7.7 99.5 114.9 71.0 120.3 70.7 64.2 81.8 90 45 43 Live cattle ('000 heads) 8.0 32.2 34.1 52.3 56.6 68.9 61.6, 44.0 67 37 32 Hides and skins 6.3 6,2 5.8 8.3 8.3 8.5 7.2 6.2 7 4 4 Eggs (fresh) 2.2 8.2 6.6 8.1 15.2 15.6 4.6 2.7 5 3 4 Castor seed - 26.0 15.7 31.4 2>4.0 32.6 54.0 40-1 36 27 16 Mung bean .. 10.5 7.2 15.4 23.,C 26.4. 21.0 20.7 33 15 25 Peanuts - 12.6 15.5 12.9 9.9 13.5 14.7 13.8 12 6 6 Tobacco leaves 0,4 6.7 5.8 1.2 1.7 1.1 2.6 3.8 6 2 2 Kapok for wadding - 4.4 6.7 10.3 11.3 14.3 15.8 15.8 18 7 7 Lac and lac seed 6,0 11,2 5.3 6.9 9.0 8.5 14.6 11.4 11 5 8 salt - 223.2 2,47.2 261.1 223.7 190.0 134.9 n6.14 140 39 43 1/ 72% concentrates. Source: Annual Statement of Foreign Trade and infornation supplied by Bank of Thailand. Table XV Value of Imports (c.i.f.) by Principal Category (Millions of baht) Jan. - March 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1964 1965 i. Food and Tobacco, of which: 897 978 983 892 962 902 956 1059 275 252 - milk products l0 379 ~Ej o21 ~~ 131 30 - tobacco 183 181 156 95 181 126 124 166 ho 39 2. Crude Materials 74 73 71 143 207 205 224 282 65 78 3. Mineral Fuels and Lubricants, of 901 -il 1 1017 1o22 1221 lT" 351 319 which: - crude oil - - - - 19 228 9 79 - gasoline .353 3ho 358 371 345 340 322 36h 86 h3 - fuel & diesel oils 323 337 3h2 372 4lo 547 573 613 179 165 h. Animal & Vegetable Oils & Fats 19 25 31 20 1 18 18 35 7 13 5. Chemnicals, of which: 9r9i 7M- Š22~ 1o 4~5 1190 121T3 I6 l~ .351 4 - medicinal & pharmac. 2-g :316 -i 3 327 3U9 - fertilizers 62 45 73 70 71 85 125 163 25 26 6. Manufactured Goods, of which: 36h0 3)34 3603 3812 4257 bh38 h876 5032 1228 1393 - paper, paperboard 292 213 ~328¯ ~ 271 ~~ 92 - textiles, c1othin & footwear 1158 1:181 1306 1242 1616 1558 1430 (1609) 458 503 - iron and steel products 611 707 712 646 803 738 858 993 258 32h - simple metal mfg. 370 :327 300 373 399 h89 627 ( h50) h2 68 7. Non-Electrical Mchry. & Equipmt. 632 744 1095 1020 1060 1384 1609 1837 381 124 8. Electrical Mchry. & Equipmt. 392 38-0 ~40- ~75K ~71i ~~67 ~-9h7 ¯~76P8 190 768i 9. Transport Equipment, of which: ý385 737 706 88 9 ý78 1097 13~h7 (1717¶) 9 589 - autos, motorcycles, bicycles etc. 11? 193 227 36 i i 9¯ (¯7 ) (138) - busses, trucks, lorries, chassis 383 392 392 4o8 467 571 697 ( 800) (196) 10. Miscellaneous Transactions, of which: 318 209 232 367 336 372 362 381 80 86 - gold bullion _-06 22 -W ~ 27 __9 127W 103 ~~59 __ 11. Total 9 837 899 22 10287 11506 12803 T1083 351 363 Adjustment for balance of paymts. -172 -183 - 42 -184 -225 -263 -.256 -231 - 38 - Merchandise Jimpjorts,cif-37 85 9? 93 06 1h 26 35 3177 39 Sourde: Annual Statements of the Foreign Trade of Thailand and Bank of Thailand. Note: Figures 'between brackets are partly estimated by the Mission. Table XVI Quantity of Selected Imports (Thousand metric tons, except where otherwise indicated) Jan. - March 1957 1958 1959 1960 196 1 Q6:2 1963 1964 1964 1965 Food and Tobacco Wheat flour 29.6 26.4 25.4 23.6 25.8 26.5 25.8 23.7 8.0 5.6 Sugar 8.0 17.1 9.1 0.01 0.02 - - 0.1 - 0.3 Coffee 3.5 3.4 4.5 5.7 5.0 5.4 2.7 5.0 2.2 0.9 Tea 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 0.3 0.3 Tobacco unnanufactured 5.4 5.3 6.6 3.9 5.8 3.9 3.6 5.0 1.6 1.3 Tobacco manufactired C>,04 0.02 0,02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 - Petroleum Products Crude oil 17 - - - - - - 63.8 651.6 33.3 215.1 Gasoline and benzine 'l/ 458.6 454.5 499.0 1560.3 610.0 561.6 544.0 559.6 162.3 72,6 Kerosene 1/ ~ 106,9 120.å 130.6 165.9 129..5 143.1 146.4 78.2 28.2 6.8 Fuel and diesel oils 1/ 527.7 570.1 617.0 658.5 770.4 1613.9 1183.2 1417.1 428.9 292.3 Lubricants 1/ ~ 36.8 28.7 33.6 40.8 36.3 56.2 52.8 61.4 10.9 15.2 Rubber Products Tires and tubes 2/ 2,7 3.3 2.5 3.2 3.1 4.2 3.3 3.5 0.7 0.9 Paper and Paper Products Cigarette paper 0.3 0,7 0.3 .5 0.5 0.5 0.3 005 0.2 0.06 Newspaper 16.6 15.2 18.8 17.8 24.5 15.5 26.6 21.4 5.6 4.2 Printing and writing paper 11.1 10.1 12.6 13.8 16.0 15.3 17.5 7.7 1.3 1.8 Paperboard 6.5 6.8 7.5 9.3 10.9 14.6 18.1 22.7 5.5 7.9 Yarns and Threåd Cotton 4.7 4.6 6.9 4.14 4.14 4.2 4.7 6.9 1.6 2.0 Rayon, sil,k, nylon etc., 0.7 0.9 0. 8 0.12 0.1 1.6 2.2 3.3 0.8 1.0 Wool 0.1 0,03 0.04 0.04 0.14 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.01 0.01 (See footnotes on next page.) Table XVI (Continued) Jan.-March 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1965 Yard Goods Cotton 2/ 5.0 141.1 164,6 148.0 169.9 239.0 122.6 114.0 31.8 28.5 Silk, rayon,nylon eto*. 3,6 308 L,47,.3 29.4 28.2 40.7 64.8 55.7 16.2 20.2 Wool 3/ 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 Linen / 0.2 0.4 0.4 06 2,7 3.8 3.7 4.8 - - Textile Manufactures Laces, ribbon etc. 0,05 0.1 0.1 0,04 0.02 0.2 0.2 0.02 0.07 0.1 Blankets 3.0 2.7 3.3 2.6 3.4 3.6 3.5 2.6 0.1 0.1 Household linens 0.9 0.9 0"9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 Miscellaneous Raw Materials Rope, twine, cord 4.1 4.,7 4.9 5.7 6.6 6.4 6.2 8.0 2.5 1.6 Gunny bags 4/ 29.2 17.,7 19.8 21.1 25.3 30,8 - 12.4 0.06 0.6 Cement 48.5 22,.0 15.9 14,1 6.1 34.9 16.5 8.9 0.9 2.7 Iron and Steel Tincluded tinplate) Joists, girders,angles etc. 59.1 69.2 63.6 75.4 84.9 117.9 132.7 132.4 35.1 45.3 Plates & sheets, coated 62.8 67.2 69.1 57.6 40.1 15.9 14.4 14.5 3.0 4.6 Railway rails and accessories 5.8 37.5 31.4 20,6 o.o6 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.05 0.01 Tubes, ipes & fittings 10.2 12.1 15.5 15.8 25.6 30.5 34.5 28.9 7.6 6.9 Plates sheets uncoaed 11.9 12.0 16.,7 29.7 70.9 78.4 101.0 133.6 35.4 43.3 Non-ferrous Patals Copper and alloys 1.6 1..2 1.1 1.4 1.2 2.1 2.4 2.8 0.5 C).9 Alum-inum and alloys 2.4 1.8 1.5 3.1 2.7 4.0 4.8 5.6 1.6 1.3 Lead and alloys 0.6 o.6 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.2 Zinc and alloys .1.3 1.7 1.5 4.0 7.3 9.0 10.9 12.2 2.1 3.8 Fertilizer 40.0 29.,7 47..8 52.,0 54.8 66.6 97.4 125.0 1/ 1000 kiloliters. 2/ 1957: million units; 1958-1965: million sq. yards. 7/ 1957: thousand tons: .1958-1965: million sq. yards. / illion units. Source: Annual Statements of the Forei,n Trade of Thailand and Departme=t of Customs' Table XVII Balance of Paynents (Milion f fU.S . dollars ) Jan.- June 19,57 19'58 19,59 15ý60 19.61 1962 19?63 1!964 1964~ 1,965 1.0 Goods and Services 1.1 Receipts 428.2 350.1 399.9 459.1 543.3 538.8 557.9 706.8 352.9 359.9 Merchandise exports,f.o.lb. 390.1 307.0 357.~ EO Efy"~j E03 3-9 6~ 95~E 297.1 29'7.1 Transportation & Insurance 8.5 10.3 5.9 9.5 12.5 14.2 ih.h 19.9 9.3 10.2 Foreign travel 2.7 4.2 5.2 5.4 7.7 8.8 9.9 10.3 5.2 5.3 Investment Income 5.7 6.0 4.9 6.6 8.9 10.3 12,7 113.7 9.2 11.7 Direct InvestiTent .. .. .. (0.2) (0.1) (0.3) (0.6) (0.7) (0.3) (..) Other (6.-4) (8.8) (10.0) (12.1) (1.B,0) (8.9) (..) Government n.i.e. 10.4 12.0 13.2 17.2 21.4 30.9 35.2 44.5 20.8 23.9 of which non-military .. .. .. (16.4) (18.7) (22.0) (20.1) (24.1) (11.0) (..) Other services 9.0 8.4 8.3 10.5 12.6 13.6 15.8 13.7 7.0 7.2 Sub-total: Services 3.3 »C~9 l37~ .2 .1 77~ ~lb0~ 107~1 "13 KB~. Sub-total: Goods & Services 4-8.5 357~9 3-.9 45~~2 S--E 5 f~7 ~583 6-97 3E.- 33"¯E Private donations 1.8 2.2 5.0 4.9 6.9 7.1 9.4 9.3 4.3 .5 1.2 Expenditures 473.8 430.1 466.8 496.6 536.0 603.6 668.1 739.5 365.3 378.3 erchandise imports,c.i. C. Ó~ 3 ~ 2 W» 47-~ E954.7 603.2 66 327. 377-3 Non-inonetary gold 5.1 1.1 - 2.9 6.2 7.5 7.1 5.3 0.4 1.8 Transportation & Insurance 8.8 6.2 5.4 5.7 6.6 5.5 4.0 5.7 2.6 2.6 Foreign travel 12.7 10.2 10.0 12.7 12.2 16.2 17.1 20.4 11.5 11L.7 Investment Income 17.5 13.2 11.4 11.3 13.00 15.c 14.7 22.0 10.4 11.2 Direct Investment .. .. .. (8.1) (9.1) (4 (8.4) (8.9) (4.7) (.. Othe r .. . . 3.2) (39) (5.6) (6.3) (13.1) (5.7) (. Government n.i.e. 4.6 2.9 3.9 5.3 5.0 4.4 7.4 8.2 4.0 4.3 Other services 9.3 7.5 9.8 8.9 10.9 12.3 12.2 14.2 7.7 7.9 Sub-total: Services/ 52.9 40.0 40.5 43.9 47.7 55] 55.4 70.5 36.2 39.5 Sub-total: Goods & Services 42~7 4266 464 49_.~ 53,¯8 601.6 6.773~. 33.¯9 375.8 Private donations 11.1 3.5 1.9 2.4 2.2 2.u 2.4 3.1 .1.4 :1.5 (For footnotes see end of table) Table XVII (Continued) Balance of Payments (Millions of U.S. dollars) Jan. --June 1997 19ý8 19-9 1960 1961 1962 1963 196 196b 1965 1.3 Net Goods & Services -45.6 -8o.o -66.9 -37.5 7.3 -64.8 -110.2 -32.7 -12.4 -18. 2.0 Errors and Omissions (net) - 5.o 21.5 _1C.9 29.2 _.6 16. h 28.8 - 0.6 2.h ___.2 3,0 Capital and Official Donations 3.1 Private Capta 3_/ 3.0 4.o 10.0 9.3 1.6 19.0 4o.8 51.9 21.8 21.7 3.2 Drawings . .. 13.0 2.0 35. 62.3 ~ 91.3 ~5. ~~ ¯. Direct long-term 2. h/ T 3.3 ¯ - / ~ . ~3 9.6 17. 20.4 ~~T~7 -1~~0 Loans to enterprises .. .. h.6 1.6 4.0 6.9 8.2 8.0 3.2 ) Suppliers ' Credits .. .. - - - - 14.4 6.2 5.5 ) Deferred payments 5/ . .. 3.7 7.0 16.2 21.0 44.3 18.0 ) Trade credits and advance payments for imports .. .. .. .3 8.5 2.7 52 12.4 2.6 ) IFCT - - -- - - - - 0.1 - ) 303 Repayments .. .. .. 3.7 il.h 16.4 21.5 39.4 28.6 21.5 Direct long-term - ~ .. .~ ~ 0.c 2.1 01.8 1.1 ~ 0.5 0,3 Loans to enterprises .. .. .. 1.7 2.2 4.8 3.1 2.7 1.9 ) Deferred payments .. .. .. - 3.3 7.1 12.7 23.7 10.0 ) Trade credits and advance )21.2 payments for imports .. .. .. 1.5 5.1 2.h 6.3 10.7 1.0 ) Suppliers' credits .. .. .. .. .. .. - 1.2 - ) 3.4 Official donations (net) 35.0 25.3 41.3 34.1 21. 38.8 47.6 30.0 15.2 17.1 U. S. grants 31. 20.7 3." 32.0 S. 2 30.6 ~1 9.2 10.1 Colombo Plan, UN Special Agencies, etc. o.6 1.6 0.8 2.1 2.0 12.0 14.2 9.h 3.2 1.2 Japanese war debt Settlement 3.0 3,C, 3.0 - - - 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 (For footnote, See end of table) Table XVII (Continued) Balance of Payments (Millions of U.S. Dollars') Jan. - June 1957 198 1959 1960 1961 -1962 1963 196h 196L I965 3.5 Official Loans (net) 19.7 10.8 10.6 13.9 26.7 52.2 36.3 24.0 11.6 2.7 3.6 Drawings 2T T 1 23.7 2TT 7T 1 . 50 26.0 IBRD3.2raig 12.2 11.2 12. T f 11 7.2 3) ICA/AID 6.0 0.6 1.9 4.0 7.3 1.7 0.6 3.7 1.8 (3.2) DLF - - - 5.4 5.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 1.9 (1.4) Export-Import Bank 0.3 - 6.6 5.4 1.7 7.5 2.4 0.1 0.1 Bank of America 3.0 - - - - - - - - - Germany - - - - - - 0.8 6.9 4.2 Suppliers' Credits 11.0 9.2 3.0 2.2 1.h 5.8 7.8 7.5 5.1 Deferred payments 5/ - - - 0.1 5.0 2.4 9.2 10.3 3.9 Project Contractors' Credits - - - - 7.8 27.7 L6.5 3.0 1.8 . 3.7 Repayments 6.1 3.9 13.1 1h.4 11.7 12.1 lS.5 26.8 1h.h 13,2 IBRD LT _ 75 _275 _2_7 2__. 2. 3.9 5T4 24 ICA/AID - - - - - 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 DLF - - - - - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Export-Import Bank 0.1 0.1 0.1 - 0.1 1.2 1.3 2.1 1.0 Bank of America - 0.4 2.8 3.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 - - Suppliers' Credits 4.6 2.1 7.7 8.0 6.9 4.1 2.6 4.1 4.2 Deferred payments }/ - - - - 3.0 1.7 5.4 lo.6 6.6 Project contractors' credits - - - - - - - 143 - 4.0 Miscellaneous (net) 0.6 - 1.0 0.3 - 7.8 6/- 1.2 - 0.2 1.3 + 2.3 1.0 - 0.8 5.0 FrinAssets, Net (-increase) _-7 -*7__7 Y _7_7. T - 2~ 7 T T _b . 744 6777 -9-.6 _267 1/ Operating expenses of embassies, consulates and international organizations. 2/ Excluding Non-Monetary Gold. 3/ Before 1959, estimated; from 1959, based on exchange records. Excludes banks. Net. 1/ The credit entry represents the value of goods imported on a deferred payment basis. The debit entry represents repayments. 6/ Of which: Baht liabilities to U.S. Government for surplus agricultural commodities: 1.8, and payments to IBRD and IDA: 4.2. Source: IT17 nn of Tn1in,1 Table XVIII Changes in Factors AffeCting Money Supply (Billions of Baht) Total Out- standing Jan.-April April, 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1964 1965 1965 Public Sector Govt. borrowing from Central Bank .39 .37 .38 -2.251/ -.55 -,,h -1.03 -.36 -.49 -.24 1.b7 Govt. borrowing from other banks .07 .05 .16 .28 .38 .84 .93 .92 .29 .21 4.1h 1.0 Total borrowing .46 .43 .54 -1.97 -.17 .80 - .10 .56 -.20 -.03 5.61 Less: Govt. deposits in Central Bank -.04 .08 .01 .52 .22 .89 - .48 1.05 .46 .58 3.28 Govt. deposits in other banks .10 -.o4 .20 .04 .11 -.12 .14 .09 .12 .44 1.11 Counterpart funds .10 -.07 .07 .01 .08 .03 - .08 -.10 -.08 ~.07 .31 Capital accounts of Central Bank .23 .25 .10 -18 1.15' .21 .48 .o4 -.09 .09 3.85 Other Central Eank liabilities (net) -.05 - - -2.154 -L.00 -.01 - .01 -.03 - ..01 --.c04 1.1 Total offsets .34 .22 .38 -1.40 .56 1.00 .05 1.05 .41 1.05 8.51 1.2 Net public sector .1 .21 .16 - .57 - .73 -.20 - .15 -.49 -.61 -1.08 -2.90 Private Sector 2.0 Borrowing from Banks .49 .64 .56 .85 .83 1.20 1.12 1.64 .68 .91 11.46 Less: Time & saving deposits .28 .30 .13 .41 .63 1.69-' 1.25 1.27 .32 .18 7.33 Other bank liabilities (net) -.01 .0 .04 --.03 - .02 .53 .17 .41 .05 .23 1.77 2.1 Total offsets .27 .314 .17 .38 .61 2.22 1.42 1.68 .37 .41 9.10 2.2 Net private sector .22 .30 _.39 ._47 _.22 -1.02 - .30 _.o4 .31 .50 2.36 3.0 Total Domestic Factors (1.2+2.2) .34 .51 .55 - .10 - .51 -1.22 - .45 -.51 -.30 -.58 - .54 4.0 Net Foreign Exchange Transactions .19 ø27 ~~--~07 -l,~ï~~6 ~~~9 ~9~1"17 ~1¯~- ~¯2 . ~9 Errors and omissions ~ 0~ ¯¯ 5 ,O~ ~.~' ~ ¯¯ - .12 -. - .20 5.0 Changes in Money Supply .47 .25 .63 1.01 .99 .01 .79 1.o4 .32 -.16 - % annual increase in money supply ~~ ~~ ~ ~~~u ~ ¯ ~~~ 7l - 8 ~ 5d Total Money Supply 7.98 8.45 9.08 10.09 11.08 11.09 11.88 12.92 12.20 12.76 12.76 % of GNP 18 20 19 19 19 18 18 18 - - (See Zootrotes on next page) Table XVIII (continued) Changes in Factors Affecting Money Supply J llons of -P D-t4 1/ Accumulated profits on exchange transactions from the Central Bank's operations at multiple rates in the early 1950s were included under Government borrowing until October 1960. Part was then transferred to the Government, and the remainder to the Capital account in January 1961. These transfers do not influence the net offset of the public sector on money supply. In May 1962 a marked decline in demand deposits and a sharp decrease in time deposits followed a change in classi- fication and higher interest rates on time deposits. On a 'basis broadly comparable with 1961 the money supply in 1962 would have increased by perhaps 0.50 billion baht, or 1 to 5 percent. 2/ Increase over April of preceding year. Sources: I.F.S. except for Counterpart Funds which are taken from Monthly Report of Bank of Thailand. Table X~ Central Government Revenue. (actua9l) (Billions of Baht) 1964/65 buldget a9-52 25-6 1957 1958 1959 1960 160/61 1961/62 1962/63 196/ estimates Tax Revenue Incone taxes 0.24 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.58Å 0.68 0.23 .78 0.85 0.9h Personal 0.24 0.19 0.20 0.24 0.27 0.37 0.46 0.45 o.47 o.5 Ö32 Corporate - 0.13 0.14 0.12 0.11 0.21 0.22 0.28 0.31 035 0.to Import duties 1.08 1.42 1.49 1.62 1.79 2.05 2.28 2.50 261. 2.8 2.16 Petroleum products 0.17 0.24 0.25 0.26 0.31 0.48 0.50 0.55 0.55 ¯ ..~2/ Food stuffs .. .. 0.03 0.16 0.16 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.21 Machinery, equipment and vehicles 0,63 0-87 0-13 0.35 0.32 0.40 0.47 0.50 0.60 0.72 0.61 Textiles - - 0.08 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.20 0.23 o.24 m.5 Other .. .. 1.08 0.77 0.87 0.85 0.97 1.07 1.03 1.17 1.29 Export duties 3/ 0.91 1.24 1.25 1.10 1.16 1.23 1.26 1.16 1.13 1.14 Rice o ~ 0.82 0.98 1.)4 0.94 0.87 0.89 1.02 0.98 0.95 1.T99ý Rubber 0.05 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.23 0.33 0.21 0.16 0.16 o.14 o.15 Other 0.04 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.06 0.01 0.03 0.04 Ci.02 0.02 0.03 :Business taxes Q.2 0.44 045 0. 52 0.j62 0 0.93 L.42 12 Excise taxes 0.18 0.23 0.22 0.36 0.41 0.44 0.47 0.38 0.40 61.2 Beverages 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.28 Petroleum producte - - - - - - - - - 0,.03 Other 0.06 0.09 0.07 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.13 0.12 0<.13 0.13 Monopolies .51 0.57 0.5 0.612 .6 Q-58 0.56 0.60 q._ L.10 Tobacco 0.35 0.44 0.43 0.51 0.50 0.53 0.51 0.55 0.73 E71 0'74 State lottery 0.06 0.07 0.12 0.12 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0108 o-15 Other 0.10 0.06 0.01 0.06 0.02 0.01 0.01 - - Other 0.4 0.48 0.41 0.45 0.46 0.49 0.49 02 212 o.64 6 Automobile tax 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.0+ 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 U~TO- Royalty 0.10 0.13 0.13 0.09 0.09 0.13 0.14 0.16 0.17 0.22 0.21 Other 0.35 0.32 0.22 0.32 0.32 0.30 0.28 0.28 0.31 O,32 0.34 Sub-total: Tax revenue 3.66 4.70 3 5. 5.41 6.21 6.68 7..3z ?0 8.84 -22 Table III (Contv ) Central Government Revenue (actual) 1964/65 budget 153 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1960/61 1961/62 196:2/6 1963/6 estimates Contribution of public enterprises 0,07 0.06 0.11 0.11 0.2i 0.14 0.11 0.20 0.20 0,14 0.k0 Bank of Thailand - 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.19 0.11 0.10 0,11 0.12 0,12 C.13 Fublic utilities 4/ 0.,04 0.01 0.03 0.03 0,02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.06 ..0.0 Others 1/ 0,03 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.02 0*03 0.01 010 0.10 0,08 0.2h Other revenue 0.,15 0.21 0.24 0,27 0.29 0 .0 0.39 0-37 0-52. 0.49 0o83 Sub-total: !on-tax revenue 0.,22 027 0.35 0.38 0.52 0,54 0.50 0.57 0.2 0.63 1.23 Total revenue 3,88 4.97 5.08 550 594 6.75 7.18 7.94 ..47 70.46 7 11 Increase mainly due to raising of tax rates on hipher income brackets, 2/ Folloving the start of domestic oil refining it is proposed to raise revenue from excise tax on refined products equivalent to the loss of import duties on crude oil. 3/ Including proceeds of Rice Premium. Post and telecommunications, Bangkok Electric orks, ond waterworks only. The contribution of these enterprises as shown here is moderately smaller than indicated in Table XXIV on the Financinr* of Gross Fixed Investment of State Enterprises, because of differences in sources and therefore in reporting: whereas the above figures are from the Comptroller Generalts Departmento the data in TableDXXON were compiled by N.E.D.B. largely from the enterprises financial statements. 6/ Excluding receipts from coin issues ad gross receipts-of waterv!orks. Actual total estimated at around )10.8 billione Sources: Comptroller General Department and Bureau of the Budget. Note: Due to rounding totals do not necessarily add up. Table XX Central Government Expenditure (actual) (Billions of Baht) Estirmated Budget Actual 19597 19,58 1959 ;L960 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 196)/65 1.0 Current Expenditure IL/ -1 1.1 Defense, administration. etc, 2.80 2.61 2.85 3.01 3.27 3.13 2.65 4.02 4.53 Defense and police T-9 7 ~ Tr¯F 2¯00, 2j.13 2.13 2.99 77 General. administration 0.80 0.66 0.68 0.73 0.82 0.78 0.87 0.81 0.93 Perisions 0.02 0.02 0.18 0.25 0.29 0.32 0.35 )o62 0.73 Miscellaneous 0.04 0.04 0.10 0.14 0.16 0.20 0.30 ) * 62""" 1.2 Interest payments 0.13 0.27 0.29 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.55 0.69 -- Internal debt 0.10 . .7 0.30 0.33 0.39 U.37 0.46 wý~- External debt 0.03 0.02 0.02 '0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.09 0.09 1.3 Economic & Social Services 2/ 1.65 1.81 1.81 1.94 2.21 2.27 2.69 3.o4 3.31 1.14 Total current expenditure 4.5 ~28 Y .9 .. 7~7 ~o 1"3 .7 ~.i ( ) 2'.0 Capital eXpenditure ]L/ 3 å7 W7 0,.78 .1.09 i ~ ( 20) 3.0 Loans and grants ./ ._1 0.145 0.60 0.61 0.62 0.59 0.96 1.02 1.13 (1.20) Local governments 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.10 0.17 0.22 0.3 (0.33) - State enterprises 0.22 0.36 0.50 0.49 0.52 0.41 0.72 0.79 o.8-o Other . . - - - 0.02 _/ - - 4.0 Total expenditure, 1/ ' .6 51 6.314 6.68 7.54 8.12 2.16 10.148 12.42 11.90 5.0 Curent reven f- -9 6.75 7T' 9-7 10.6 11¯¯00 6.0 Balarce 0 .-!~7- --.070 0.0.45 b.07 ~.~3 .. .01 ....1 1 - -.9 ý0.90 7.0 Adjustment '[/ 0.13 -0.06 ..0.23 -0.11 0.21 0.18 0.31 0.46 0.80 8.0 Overal Baia,nce -0.44 -0.147 ...0.'3 -0.4 -0.15 - -09633 ~.005_ 21.96 -0110 1/ Excludes operating expenses of public utilities and expenditures financed from external loans and grants. 2/ Details in Table TXI. / Details in Table xXIII. / For current and capital expenditure. / Interest free loan to Industrial Fimnce Corporation of Thailard See notes to Table XX. Notes: a) After 1960, f'iscal years Oct.1-Sept.30 Extra - budgetary receipts and adjustmient to cash basis. b) Figures between brackets are estirmated Sources: Corptroller General Departnent and Bureau of the Budget except for total expenditvre in i964/65 based on data in International Financial Statistics for first eight months of fiscal yearo Table XXI Central Government Current Ienditure on Economic and Social Services (actuals) (Millions of Baht) Budget atimates 1957 1958 1959 1960 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1966/65 Agriculture 23 33 45 52 59 73 85 93 127 Irrigation 35 63 79 101 107 108 121 135 153 Cooperatives 25 22 20 23 :27 37 55 414 53 Forestry 29 35 38 41 145 47 6 69 80 Power - - - 6 2 2 12 14 4 Industry and mining 12 14 17 22 25 39 30 43 45 Highways 134 96 111 127 172 :140 240 Other transport & communications 15 41 5o 23 31 41 39 Other economic services 1/ 88 86 95 116 129 115 184 220 200 Educat on 984 1069 1168 1193 1320 13i2 1,45 1571 1734 Health 80 207 161 188 214 219 271 (312) (360) Other social. services 223 1143 28 53 79 91 145 (156) (170) Total 1648 1809 1812 1945 2210 2274 2691 3035 ]/ Including Thai Governmentts contributions to the Counterpart Fund established under the US aid program and utilized to finance development expenditures. Source: See Table XX. Note: Figures between brackets are estimated. Table XXII Central Government: Financing of Overall Deficit (M'illions of Baht) 1964/65 3/ 1953 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1960/61 196:1/62 1962/63 1963/64 Est. Actual Overall Deficit 1 -1937 -623 -435 -470 :-630 -L =_12 - 2 -326 -555 314 Financin 1.937 627 437 C72 630 _p. 14b 2 328 555 -314 Repayment of External Loans (-) - 19 - 41 -- 35 - 37 - 39 - 41 - 35 - 53 - 45 - 50 - Borrowing from Government Savings Bank (Net) - 22 18 68 44 99 173 213 238 353 333 379 Borrowing from Public (Net) 60 107 34 43 85 269 157 140 144 192 220 Expansionary Financing: 1918 .13 370 422 485 -359 -186 -323 -124 80 -913 Net borrowing from Commercial Banks 75 - 14 - 11 63 108 211 478 626 516 - 66 Bank of Thailand 1844 542 239 245 524 298 470 -349 70 -784 2 Exchange Equalization Fund - - 180 60 - -270 - 18 - - - - Net use of cash balance - 12 - 1 - 64 89 -121 -504 -859 -466 -867 282 -915 Issue of new coins il 16 15 17 19 9 10 14 47 67 67 1/ See Table XXI. 2/ Eight-month period October-May. Estimate for full year is as follows: Overall deficit -100 Borrowing from Government Savings Bank and public 800 Expansionary financing -700 Source: See Table XX. Table XXIII Public Sector Capital Formation (mihlion Baht 1 1959 1960 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 Budget7 Estimated . etual 1.0 Agriculture 1.1 Irr igat ion 211 27h 330 417 424 157 501 Governrment budget 2Y -7W '3o W"T3 Bhumipol Dam -P 122 3929 200 13 Chao Phya Irr:ig ation Sys tem 80 87 70 86 65 40 h0 Chao Phya III (dykes and ditches project) - -0 30 30 Petchburi - -- - 30 30 Meklong - - - - - -20 Other 40 63 121 122 100 109 109 External loans - - - - 19 93 137 I3RD: Chao Phya III - - - - 7 58 Petchburi - - . - 19 28 21 Meklong- - - ·· -- ·· -- - 58 58 Other: Nan - - - - - - Other pro jects - - - - - 1.2 Other agLcul-ture 39 39 66 80 108 100 100 Governent budget ~--3 ~55r Cooperatives ~ ~3 3 ~10 22 Forestry 2 1 18 22 6 5 5 OthEr agriculture 6 5 7 10 15 30 30 State Enterprises' Domestic 1esources 30 30 38 38 65 45 45 Forest Indistry Organizati.on 30 L9 30 30 Rubber Plantation Organization 31 8 8 8 Other 5 8 7 7 (See footnote2 at end of table) Table 'XUI (Continueci) 1963/64 1959 1960 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 Budget17 Estimated xternal grants: AID 30 25o o 1 - Total Agriculture 99 350 26 522 5575 Government budget 220 283 31 79I 79- State Enterprises1 doestic res urces 30 30 38 38 65 45 45 External loans to Government - - 19 93 137 External grants: AID 49 37 30 25 25 40 0 2.0 Power State Eiterprises' domestic resources 77 123 225 18 249 243 191 Y¯a5ee Ictricity Authority 22 ~3 ~ 3E ~~~ Metropolitan Electricity Authority 10 10 130 72 125 79 79 Provincial Kectricity Authority 35 35 25 12 42 57 30 Lignite Authority 10 15 20 20 30 12 12 North East 1lectricity Authority - - - - - 47 20 2,2 External loans 369 395 .450 h66 514 552 30B Yanhee Klectri.city Authority IBRD 238 221 314 254 23h 198 110 Exim 131 108 31 116 75 - - Metropolitan Kectricity Authority: DLF - 66 105 70 53 83 83 Provirncial, Electricity Authority - - - - - 97 - Lignite Authority - - - 26 143 85 85 North East Electricity AuthoriLty - - - -1 9 e9 30 2.3 Externaj. grants: AID 70 78 28 -- 2 - 2,4 Total Power 516 596 703 604 765 795 9 State Enterprisest domestic resources 77 123 225 138 249 243 191 Enterprises 369 395 450 466 514 552 308 External Grants 70 78 23 - 2 - LLble ]i (Continued) 196 -~ ___ 162/6 Bu 3/66 1959 1960 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 Budget Estimated actuaR External grants 70 78 28 - 2 - 3v0 Transportalion and Commuricat-ion's 3,1 H w 447 490 351 575 593 1 132 650 Government budget 237 UU 66 W_E 377 _75 0 IBRD ~ ~ ~ - ~ - Exim Bank - - - - - 215 - New loans - . ... 8 External grants: AIDY 210 312 85 129 216 200 200 3.2 State Railay 186 125 70 ii 115 599 il State Enerse. domestic resources 170 125 70 108 106 367 250 Ex eïnraTToians - - 3 232f IBRD: exisTing 2 232T~6i new - - - 232 - Germany - - - h 232 100 AID (PL 480) - - - 33 5 - - External grants: AID 8 ... 3.3 Ports 40 45 83 46 44 100 50 STte Enterprisesu domestic resources ho 45 50 hh hå lo3 50 External loarB 33 DLF - - 33 2 3*4 Air Transportation 174 44 37 160 75 ho ho Airfields and air services --_- Externalgr_a_ns: AID 15h 5h gn ,n ho . -s --4U Mabis '-"TTT Cv 3r) 1963/64 1/ 19 59 1960_ 196 1961/62 1962/63 Budget Estimated actual Thai Airways State Eriterprise' domestic resources 20 1? 24 35 40 40 3.5 Telecommunications 30 64 90 5 312 202 2002 Telephone Orgaiization resources 20 38 50 33 50 122 122 External loans - 18 - - - - External grants: AID 10 8 40 22 262 80 80 3.6 Post Office State Enterp ;es' domestic resources l/ 20 20 27 25 95 5 85 3.7 Express Transport Organization State Enterprises' doMestic resouirces _5 _5 8 9 _7 10 10 3.8 Other Government budget 27 12 48 51 136 70 3.9 Total Transportation and Communications 929 805 697 1,059 ,2 2,037 1,518 Government budget 2j4 190 297 494 428 711 520 State Enterprises' domestic resources 275 253 222 243 337 727 557 External loans to Governrent - - - - - 357 - to State Enterprises 8 18 33 35 9 232 161 External grarits 382 344 145 287 518 280 280 iiý_h T (C111 'cntinuled) 19W63/6I 1959 1960 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 Budget7:/Estimated actual hJ) Industry and Mining 106 223 211 h36 gg 3h0 276 Governiment budget 27 -TO~ 13 1 .16 State Entenrises' domestic resources 95 100 133 154 186 174 174 External loans to State Enterprises - 92 62 253 89 98 84 External grarits: AID 6 4 6 4 2 2 2 IFCT loans.9 - - - - - 50 - 5,0 Education 201 187 228 233 310 l 360 dovernment budg et 137 106 lm 10 2176 3L 300 External grants AID 64 81 50 53 b CIV 40 1 Other - - 10 20 20 20 20 6.0 Health -13 51 54 121 12 166 130 Government budget -W ~j 2Tn ~37 D 3o External grants: AID h6 30 30 86 86 80 80 7.0 Water_Supply and Sewerage h 131 80 lhh 376 574 h60 vernmentbudget 7 3 External gra nts: AID 10/ 6, 76 20 - • 2) 20 EXternal loans: water supply - • - 98 323 388 340 drainage - - - 8.0 Miscelaneous 206 202 250 323 3h0 521 _97 Govenë-budget ~T 10 175 73S ~ -0 - Economic and social services n.i.,.16 14 43 45 57 140 80 of which: Land Settlenent - 12 15 20 40 ho Table XXIII (Continued) 1963161 1959 1960 196061 1961/62 1962/63 Budget-' Estimated i964/65 actual så Aninistration buildings and miscellaneous 75 89 132 193 192 28 220 State Enterprises 115 99 75 85 91 91 97 9.0 Total Government ard State Enterpris es 2 374 2jh5 2,69 3,442 .6250 5 711 4,18Q ¿A.c DEEesic_resources 1,390 i3 2 115 2~399 5_49 7 3.4C0 -enral Government (Direct) ¯72 ~7 1,092 37 1,71 2,173 1,70 2,100 State Enterprises 1/ 592 605 693 658 928 1,286 1,064 1,300 Ecternal resources 1,000 _ _8 1,. l-651 2.22 52 1,200 Loans to Central Governinent - - - 98 342 888 477 ) 8C State Enterprises 377 505 545 754 612 882 553 ) Graznts 623 650 319 475 697 482 h82 40C 10.0 Local Government' Capital Fornation 170 200 220 325 h0 2 460 420 Å20 Transfer from Central Government T0- 112 9,211 223 2ŽZ 05 Other resources 70 88 122' 179 190 237 200 22C 11.0 Total Public Sector Capital Formation 28 2 C, 67k _/70 1/ Budget and NEDB estimates of loan disbursements. 8/ Lam Pao, Lain Pra Plern and Iliae Tang projects. / Mostly to Government until Metropolitan Electricity Authority was set up. L/ Includes some loans repayable in local currency / Includes $ 2 million capital expenditure by Bangkok Dock Company. / Suppliers credit to Thai Rediffusion Company. / Includes some loan component repayable in local currency, / Transfer from Central Government. / Sub-loans by Industrial Finance Corporation of Thailand financed by loans from IBRD and Kredietanstalt (Germany). 10/ 1/2 of pipe line as of ]December 31, 1963, 1/ Water Supply. 1/ Including transfer from Central Government. 1/ More recent data on total capital expenditures indicate that the total for 1963/64 reached $4,'900 million, with the main increases over these estimates attributable to the Central Governmentts direct capital outlays which are now estimated at $1,850 million as against $1,700 million above. Sources: Comptroller General Delpartment, Bank of Thailand, NEDB and U30M/AID Financial Reports. Note: External aid excludes expenditures on defense, police and public administration financed by the U.S. Government. The aid estimates include direct dollar disbursements of project aid and withdrawals of counterpart funds generated by non-project aid. Total aid disbursements as reported by fiscal sources differ somewhat from the total of U.S. Government grants figures reported in the balance of payments because of: i) recording lags, and (ii) changes in counter- part balances. Over the period 1959-1963 g108 million were used to build up counterpart balances; total balances outstanding at the end of 1963 were $484 million. Table XXIV State Enterprises: Capital Formation and its financing, 1961/62-1963/64 (blillion Baht ) 1959 1960 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/6L 1963/6b Estimated Actual Gross Fixed Investmnt 969 1110 1138 1412 1540 2168 617 Power 446 518 675 605 763 795 L99 Yänhepp- Electrit Authority 391 392 395 405 361 246 158 ietropoli tan Electricity uthority 10 76 25 19 178 162 162 Prov. Electricity Atho.knrit 35N 35 25 12in143 Lignite Autho,rity & Northeast Electricity Atho rity 10 1 23 1n b7 rt~~~~c _2~rn 2 -41,.., - Tns p o r t & COo mma, -Iluni c1 e-a- tions 283 271 25. 278 3>46 959 718 State Railways 178 125 70 141 115 599 411 n -4J. L .IIL A r,' 0-1 .4 IA.4 'j fl Prt uthrt 4v 4-5 83ujh 03 Telephone Organiza- Thai Airways 20 20 17 24 35 40 40 Post Offices 20 20 27 2$ 95 8$ 8$ Other 5 5 8 9 7 10 10 Manufacturing 95 192 195 407 276 272 240 Oil refining .. .. .. 270 84 10 10 Weaving Organisation .. .. .. l >4 1l 87 NEDCOL* .. .. .. 19 28 18 18 Tobacco Monopoly .. .. .. 62 43 67 67 Other .. .. .. 51 74 76 76 Agriculture 30 30 38 38 65 45 5 Forestry Organization .. .. 30 49 30 30 Other .. .. 8 16 15 15 Lottery Organization, Financial & iscellaneous Institutions 115 99 75 70 70 70 70 All Other 115 99 75 14 20 27 45 tational Economic Development Corporation Table XXIV (Continued) 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 Financing 1. Operating Surplus before depreciation 2-49 67 868 Power 152 168 20h Yanhee Electricity Authority To 73 (100) Tetropolitan Electricity Authority 39 51 62 Provincial Electricity Authority 42 32 34 Lignite Auth. & Northeast Electricity Authority 11 12 8 Transport and Communications 282 264 326 State Railways 1W7 13T 177 Port Authority 43 41 62 Telenhone Organization 67 65 58 Thai Airways 15 l4 21 Post Officeq - - - Other 10 10 14 Manufacturing 139 99 88 Oil refiningr -3 - Weaving Organization 1 2 2 Mntinnnl Enonomic Devonnoment Corporation -14 -17 -2 Tobacco Mnpl 2 6lL Other -76 61 74 Agriculture 68 23 37 1-Ore stry Orga -zct 23 37 Other Lottery Organization, Financial -r1 1: -,L±)1 (- L - U0L11 U - fr- 17n 'M 7n'- / Net U Contribution to Central Governrnt budget irom Tobacco Monopoly, Forestry Organization, Bank of Thailand and miscellaneous conmercial institutions. Table XXIV (Continued) Est. Actual 1961/62 1962/63 196h/64 1963,/6L 2. Plus: Government Grants & Loans(Net) 337 609 683 558 Power 57 174 226 150 Yanhee Electricity Authority 37 ou 113 113 Metropolitan Electricity Authority 11 61 9 9 Provincial Electricity Authority 3 28 45 -4 Lignite Authority & Northeast Electricity Authority 6 24 59 32 Transport & Communications 74 180 334 285 State Railways 32 13 13 Port Authority 31 25 4I - Telephone Organization 10 36 31 31 Thai Airways 3 1 28 28 Post Offices 25 95 85 85 Other - - 1 6 6 Manufacturing 175 232 109 109 Oil Refining 1 1 T Weaving Organization - 41 41 41 NEDCOL 100 116 27 27 Tobacco Monopoly - - - - Other 8 56 27 27 Agriculture h 15 lb lb Forestry Organization - - - - Other 4 15 14 14 LottervOrwinization etc. Other 27 - - - 1959 1960 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1963/64 3. Plus: Use of External Actual Loans 754 612 882 553 Power 369 195 450 h66 5l 52 308 Yanhee Electricity athorlity 'A9 129 370 309 198 110 Metropolital Electricity Authority - 66 70 r"3 83 83 Provincial Electricity Al+Anyti - - 97 - Lignite Authority & Northeast ElIectIr-icity. A.tort 261 -- 102 17), 11 C Table XXIV (Continued) 1959 1960 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1963/64 Est, Transport L- Communica- Actual tions - - - 35 9 232 161 State Railways - - - 33 9 232 161 Port Authority 2 - - Telephone Organization Thai Airwys Post Offices Other Manuf aturinR 2q' 89 98 8B) Oil Refining --9 NEDCOL Tnbacon Mnp%ly Other Agriculture - - - - - - Other Lottery Organization etc. All Other .L7±U_L_e -;U ± U _, ) L7'U_V/Uf4 U. Less External Debt Repaymenus - -La4 _L"i _Lo Power 23 23 93 Yanhee Electricity Authority 23 23 73 Ietrcnolitan Electricity Authority - - Provincial Electricity Authority - Lignite Authority & Northeast Electricity Authority - - 25 Traipo-t & Ccmmunications 23 25 26 S Yd hailwlays 18 19 20 Frx t Authority 5 6 6 Tele,:hone Organization - - - Thai Airways - - Post Offices - - Other - - Repayments as indicated in financial statements of enterprises appear to be understated, particularly in recent years. Table XXI V (Continued) 1961/62 1962/63 1953/64 Manufacturing 101 93 '34 Oil - - Weaving - - 17 NEDCOL 94 86 - Tobacco - - Other 7 7 17 Agriculture - - vnore Qtryv nrqrj..ntjnn - - Other - - Lottery All Other 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1963/64 $. Less: All Other (Net) 281 197 85 202 Power h7 70 89 65 Metropolitan Electricity Authority -22 -13 - 8 - 8 frovincial 1Lectricity Autority 33 19 22 - 2 Lignite Authority & Northeast Electricity Authority - I -17 -17 Transport & Communications yu YU -93 2 State Railways 27 1 -7 42 Port Authority 2> 10 2 6 Telephone Organization bb 51 -39 -39 Thai Airways -6 -20 19 L9 Post Offices - - Other 1 2 - Hanufacturing 9 51 69 Oil Refining TO 1 7 Weaving Organization -4 16 23 23 NEDCOL -27 -15 7 7 Tobacco Monopoly 166 13 47 17 Other -126 -36 -20 8 Agriculture 34 -25 10 10 Forestry Organization 36 -25 7 7 Other - 4 - 3 3 Lottery Organization etc. - - - All Other 51 11 10 10 Source: National Economic Develoument Board. financial account. of the major enterprises and Mission estimates for 1959 and 1960, Table .:ky' LocalG a Caital Formati.on and Its Financing (Million baht) 3 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1960/61 .96L2 1962/63 463/Q4 Total Fixed Investment 70 130 160 140 170 200 220 325 402 460 F:inancing: Transfer from Central Government 73 105 88 93 106 118 104 151 217 229 External Loans - - 40 - - - - - - Current Surplus and borrowings 25 38 53 70 88 122 179 191 237 Lee External loan Repayments - - -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 -6 Sources: Central Government Budget, Bank of Thailand, N.E.D.B. and Survey Mission Report (199)