Tunisia - Review of development plan 1965-1968 (Vol. 7 of 7) : Education

RESTRICTED FILE COPY Report No. AF-39a This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REVIEW OF 1965 - 1968 DEVELOPMENT PLAN TUNISIA VOLUME VII Education November 26, 1965 Africa Department  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Prior to September 1964 U. S. $ = .420 Dinars Since September 1965 U.S. $ = . 525 Dinars  EDUCATION Table of Contents Page The School System I The 1959 Targets 3 The 1965-68 Plan 5 Pressure at the Primary Level 7 Pressures at the Secondary Level 9 Agricultural Education 12 Output and Enployment 13 The University of Tunis lb Research and Planning 15 Current Expenditures 15 Investments 17  Table of Contents (continued) AN2 EX: Tunisian School System Calendar of Enrollment Increase IIM. School Enrollment Increase IV. Dropouts, Reapeaters and Passers V. Pyramids of School Enrollment VI. Primary School Career VIi. Rates of Increasing Enrollment at Primary and 'Secondary Level VIII. Output and Employment, 1965-68 I,'. New Jobs to be Created from 1961-68 '. Comparison Between Offer and School Enrollment in Different Specialities XI. Increment in Teaching Staff, Secondary Level, 1965-68 XII. Entries, Enrollment and Output at Secondary Level XIII. National and Educational Operational Budget Increases XIV. Breakdown of Recurrent Expenditure for Education (1965) XV. Breakdown of Operational Expenditure According to Classifications in the Budget XVI. Operational Budget of Ministry of Education for Years 1962, 1963 & 1965 X7jII. Operational Expenditures Planned and Actual XVIII. Primary Teachers Salaries XIX. Annual Investments for School Buildings During the Four Year Period xx. Percentage of Net Investment Attributed to Education XII. Investment Projects for Education, 1965-68 XYII. Priority List of Projects for Secondary Schools to be Built 1965-68  EDUCATION The School System 1. The school system was reorganized in 1958, shortly after independence. It introduced language and other reformsirto what remained basically a French structure: six years of elementary school leading,through an ex- ternal and competitive examination, to either three years of intermediate or six years of secondary school. 2. Arabic was introduced as the medium of instruction for the first two years of primary, then concurrently with French; the latter remains predominant at secondary level. The French language is considered "an indispensable but associated" vehicle of culture. The function of primary schools (659,o0o pupils in 196h/65) is mainly instruction in the "3 R's," plus French and some civics. Delivery of a final certificate is in practice restricted to the pupils who succeed in passing the secondary school entrance examination. The remainder are considered and, more regrettably, may be inclined to think of themselves, as dropouts, in spite of the fact that they have achieved a complete course of instruction. Approximately 46 percent of the pupils do not c&mplete primary school and those passing to secondary need an average of eight years to pass through the six grades. The classical type of elementary schools have been established almost everywhere, even in the most remote areas. 3. Of the 40 percent of primary leavers who gain admission to secondary schools, about one third go to intermediate schools (2c,500 pupils in 196h/65). Wiith three year courses, these replaced the old-fashioned crafts school with the view of combining more appropriate forms of vocational education with an increment in general education. They are intended mainly for older pupils. About 55 percent complete the course, and about half of these have access to some form of further training. 4. The secondary schools (h5,475 pupils in 196h/65) are based on the celebrated principle of' progressive guidance into specialization, with two three-year cycles. After one common year, pupils are distributed between technical, economic and general streams. During the second three-year cycle, each stream divides into a number of optional sections, including teacher training, with each curricula being strongly differentia- ted. The grammar and science tracks, as well as the economic and the technical mathematics options lead up to an external examination (Baccalaureat) giving entrance to the University. Other sections, including teaching training, are considered vocational and conclude with a certificate (Brevet or Diploma).  - 2 - 5. Teacher training is organized for the primary level in a few teacher training colleges (4) and in a growing number of training sections (18) included in secondary schools. Secondary teachers have until recently been expected to have university degrees; a training college for assistant secondary teachers has now been established. All student- teachers either in the University of Tunis or abroad, receive substantial grants provided that they commit themselves to serve for a minimum of ten years in the teaching profession. This commitment applies strictly. The University, established by presidential decree in 1960, includes, at present, departments for Science, Law, Arts, Medicine and Religion, plus specialized institutions (Law, Education) attached to it. The number of students increased from 2,600 in 1960/61 to over 5,150 (4,650 Tunisians) in 1964/65; in addition, there were 3,500 TuInisian students studying abroad. 6. Agricultural education was not included in the school system established by the 1958 Education Reform Act. It is provided, under the auspices of the Ministry of Agriculture, by means of schools at secondary and higher level, special vocational centers and, mcre reccntly, short seminars for farmer training. The Ministry of Social Affairs is responsible for a program of general vocational training. 7. In sum, in a few years time, Tunisia has developed an impressive, modern and comprehensive system of education. The school system has grown to the point where in the 1965-66 Plan, investment in education is allotted D 43.5 million--D 36 million for the Department of Educatior. programs--or slightly under 10 percent of the total. In 1968, total expenditures for education, including the Department's investment and current expenditures are expected to amount to D 43 million 1/ or approx- imately 7 percent of GDP compared with 6.2 percent in the 1962-64 period. It should be stressed that at that time practically all educational ex- penses are met from Fu,blic funds, the number of pupils in private schools being insignificant,-- 8. While some target dates have been changed, and adjustments made, the basic aims of education have not changed since the "Ten Year Per- spectives" were drawn up, following the 1958 reorganization. Education was given the highest priority in development policy on the explicit assumption that rapid development of a large-scale educational effort would act as a decisive factor in changing the economic and social fabric of the nation. WVhile the system adopted was basically French, Tunisia is the first of the French-speaking African countries to have introduced some reforms in the inherited school system. The Tunisian school system is based more on a conception of progress which stresses technological and industrial factors; this is reflected in better opportunities for promoting and emphasizing science and technical education, as well as in the still inadequata attention being paid to agricultural education. 1/ This figure of D 43 million does not Include current expenditures for agricultural and vocational training (see Paragraph t3). 2/ 10,000 in primary; 5,500 in secondary schools.  9. In planning the development of the school system, equivalent priority was given to primary and secondary education. Economic development pros- pects being uncertain at that time, the expansion of schools was determined, and is still conducted on criteria derivecd from the system itself: the rate of growth was settled primarily in terms of admittance and enrollment and not in terms of output. The financial implications, both for current and capital expenditures, for this a riori type of planning have been accepted without contest up to the year 196h, as calculated and presented by the Ministry of Education. Recently some anxiety has been shown by the financial authorities as to the rapid increases in educational expenditures. This was demonstrated clearly when, in the Four-Year Plan, in spite of the priority extended to education, the amount requested by the Mfinistry of Education for investments was considerably reduced and a limitation imposed as to increases in current expenditures. In view of this concern, a critical review of progress needs to be made. It is a fair judgment to say that as its size has increased, the educational system has grown less manageable and less flexible. During the forthcoming years the further development of the system will recluire considerable effort if it is to cope effectively with problems of administration and finance, and to provide pupils with adequate teachers, equipment and buildings. The 1959 Targets 10. The aims of the 1959 Ten Year Plan, intended to be achieved almost within the span of a pupil's school career, were universal primary education and a significant rise in the output at intermediate and secondary levels. Normally, the progress is slow during the first years because of the small output of teachers and delays in school construction. But these bottlenecks were overcome rapidly in Tunisia at both primary and secondary levels, and the program got underway at full speed almost from the start. At the primary level, the speed-up was accomplished by reducing the weekly schedule of instruction--the teacher-pupil ratio decreased from 1/40 to 1/57 -- and by double-sitting the first grades -- by which, on the average, seven groups of pupils needed no more than five classrooms. In secondary schools, the decrease of the foreign school population and the important contribution by expatriate teachers had the same effect. In essence, these factors gained the time needed to bring teacher training and school construction to the level necessary for the planned increase of enrollment. 11. As mentioned, the enrollment targets were calGulated exclusively in terms of gross input. 'or primary schools, first grade places were to increase annually by a given 10 percent of the 1958 enrollment until the whole estimated 6-plus age group would be admitted. The primary pyramid was then estimated assuming an annual attrition rate of 1 percent per year, with 75 percent of the remainder passing to the following grade  - 4 - and 25 percent repeating. From these assumptions, the needed number of teachers and classrooms were calculated. For secondary enrollment, the key was the percentage of primary graduates permitted to enter secondary education, this rate was set at 37 percent (and later raised to 40 per- cent). The resulting "model" is described in Table 2, Part A. 12. Broadly, the delayed impact of the larger primary enrollment was expected in intermediate schools by 1968; by 1971 in six-year secondary schools; and by 1975 at the university level. The years 1965-72 were expected to be the most difficult because enrollment would acutely increase during that period at each level, resulting in a maxiLmUm of investir:ont require- mentsand a particularly steep rate of increase in operational expenditures. The expected stabilization point was 1972 for primary (with an estimated enrollment of about one million pupils); 1975 for intermediate; and 1978 for the six-year secondary schools (with an extrapolated enrollment of about 363,000 at the second level). The ratio of secondary to primary would then reach 0O.34, as compared to the 0.18 for 1980 proposed in the UlESCo Report on the Addis Ababa Conference on Educational Planning in Africa). 13. Such a planning scheme--which derived the internal progress of the entire system from input into prrLmary--set a rigid course for education. Due to the fixed percentage formula, secondary enrollments become closely related to primary enrolllments: factors having a bearing at the primary level--on admittance or output--will also have a bearing on subsequent developments of secondary education. Also, the output of educated manpower was decided 13 years in advance. And thirdly, the 18 decisions extended to 1978, a 20 year period, with only a limited margin for possible adjustment at the end of the first decade. At the same time, clS experience has meanwhile shown, the 1958 forecasts provided guide2ines which have enabled the educational authorities to manage the system efficiently, on the basis of established policies. 14. The chief deficiency of the 1958 Plan, in terms of the basic economic data, was an underestimation of the increase in school age pop- ulation. Adjustment of the population forecasts have led to a realistic decision to postpone the target date for universal primary education. The 1958 estimation of the school age population was made on the assumption that the total population would increase at a rate of 2.1 per- cent, with a relative stabilization of the birth rate as a result of birth control measures. Hence, the age group of 6-plus was expected to be 118,200 in 1966 and the school age population (6-14) about 968,400 in 1971. A revised estimate of population growth was adopted for the Four-Year Plan, 1965-68. Total population is now expected to grcw 2.3 percent anrmually, with the birth index decreasing progressively from 45.9 to 41.1 per 1,000 and it is generally thought that these figures mnay again underestimate reality. The census scheduled for 1966 should provide more accurate data. Whatever the actual figures may be, the educational authorities decided to postpone by five years, i.e., until 1971 the goal of enrolling the total 6-plus age group,  - 5 - 15. As a practical mattor, this mcans that it will take more time and money to achieve universal primary education than originally planned. Stabilization will take five years longer than planned in 1958. The era of simultaneous increase in enrollment at all levels, with its financial ramifications, will not end before 1977, when there will be an estimated enrollment of 1.3 million at primnary and 450,000 at secondary level. The 1965-68 Plan 16. The objectives of the 1965-68 Plan concentrate mainly on the continued developnment of the school system as it was reorganized in 1958. However, as just mentioned, the date for universal education has been post- poned to 1971; in addition, a figure of 40 percent has been maintained for a few years more as the percentage of primary school completers which will advance to the secondary level. The Plan puts increased emphasis on vocational, technical and science tracks. A network of national training centers for industry, and some schools for agricultural education are being developed as a parallel to the school system. And the expected rise in enrollment at all levels will result in a continuation of the policy of "war on many fronts." 17. School enrollment will rise from 659,000 to 879,000 in primary and from 66,000 to 122,000 in secondary schools, equivalent to an in- crease of 33 percent at primary and 85 percent at secondary levels. The enrollment ratio in primary schools will pEaSS from 65 percent to about 70 percent (of those from 6-l4 years of age), and from under 13 percent to 20 percent in secondary education. During the four years, over 16,000 pupils will leave secondary schools with an intermediate certificate, and over 11,000 with a complete certificate of education, of which 5,500 are expected to join institutions of higher education and universities. Vocational centers are expected to ensure training or advanced training to 31,500 pupils in different skills. For agriculture, 1,800 will graduate at vocational and 360 at sub-professional level. 18. During the four-year period it is estimated that of the 92,500 pupils (including drop-outs) trained or educated at higher than primary levels, over 30,000 are likely to be in surplus supply, primarily, of course, the drop-outs at the general tracks of secondary education. At the same time shortage of skills in almost all types of employment are expected to continue especially, in agriculture and in the building industry wlhere there is a large discrepancy between needs and the number of pupils actually trained in schools and centers. 19. Apparently a sufficient number of teachers will be trained (partly by means of a shortened course) to cope with the increase in school population at primary level, and even to replace the approximate 580 expatriates still on duty. At secondary level, of a total 3,000 new -teachers required, l,400 posts will have to be filled by expatriate teachers, by instructors with technical secondary education, and by present staff working extra hours. The appointment of foreign teaching  - 6 - staff in secondary and higher education is most important and will continue to be essential until Tunisia has increased its output of domestic teachers to the rate required by the increase in the number of pupils. 20. As to secondary education, during the preceding three years, 17 schools were built, and 16 extended by adding laboratories, class- rooms, workshops or boarding facilities. Plans were prepared to build during the next period, 49 new schools and enlarge 43 others in order to accommodate a supplement of 60,000 pupils. But as a result of a severe reduction of the funds initially requested, reconsideration is being given to the number and size of projects to be actually completed-- most of them according to standard designs, during the next four years. 21. For agricultural training, there are 4 secondary and 16 inter- mediate schools, part of them still under construction, in addition 9 centers are open, 6 of which are still not finished; the other 3 are to be expanded. Three new centers will be built during the four years. Furthermore, it is foreseen to enlarge the National School for Agriculture (post secondary level). In the field of training for industry and crafts, the main projects are to build 40 centers for pre-vocational training, some new centers for intensive training, and one institute for training and vocational guidance. Past experience demonstrates that improvements in methods of planning and supervision are needed to avoid delays and appropriations beyond the estimated costs. 22. The total allotment for educational purposes is D 43.5 million or slightly under 10 percent of the total capital expenditures foreseen in the Plan, Of that sum D 36.4 million is to be devoted to schools and institutions sponsored by the Department of Education, Of the specific allotments, it is likely that the provision for secondary school construc- tion is insufficient. On the other hand, about D 17 million is allotted for projects involving basic equipment for mass media, youth and cul- tural activities, which can hardly be considered of high priority under present circumstances. 23. In the meantime, current expenditure is expected to increase by about 50 percent. The budget of the Department of Education will rise to a total of D 31 million for the financial year 1968, To this must be added the D 2.14 million needed for agricultural education and D 2.8 million for vocational training. 24. An alarming aspect of educational finance is that current expenses for education tend to graw at a faster rate that the total of public expenditures. The part of the National budget devoted to insti- tutions sponsored by the Ministry of Education increased from 19 percent (1960) to 22.84 percent (1962), to 26,49 percent (1965) and will reach 33 percent in 1968, And it is obvious that unless drastic economies can be introduced the education expenses will not stabilize at that  point because the expensive sector of the system such as secondary education and vocational training--to say nothing of the university-- are just entering their first phase of dynamic expansion. Moreover, the scheduled resumption in 1968 of the 30-hour schedule in primary schools would result in a significant rise in the average cost per pupil. Taking all of these factors to ether it becomes almost unavoid- able that ultimately, and surely before the considerable investment al- ready made in education will give their full returns in terms of output, expenditures in education will simply have to be cut back abruptly and sharply in order to preserve reasonable overall financial stability. Such an abrupt cut-back would, of course, have serious repercussions on the educational system as a whole at that time. 25. In order to avoid this, it will be necessary to start now with the steps required to keep future educational expenditures within manageable proportions. In other words, the Mlission believes strongly that, with this aim in mind, the time is ripe for a major and thorough review of Tunisiala whole educational system. Various recommendations can be made in this respect which are included in the following section. Pressure at the Primary Level 26. Cne of the most serious problems of Tunisia's educational system at Drimary level is the repeater rate in the primary grades. Since 1953 the rates o repetitions have been constantly higher than expected (Soe Table 4). In the Three-Year and Four-Year Plans the actual percentages were arbitrarily modified in the hope that reality would con- form with the adjustment. The underlying question, however, has not been dealt with--namely, that school system itself may be at fault. 27. The effects of dropouts and repeaters on the evolution and balance of primary, and even secondartr education, is revealed by an analysis of the school careers of 1,000 children. Almost 18 percent left school before completing the hth grade, which portion of the invest- rment in schooling must be considered an absolute waste from the edu- cational and. financial point of view. Not more than 54.4 percent reached the last year of primary school without any delay. Of those entering secondary school, the pupils on average had spent eight years completing the six-year primary curricula. Thus a total of 12.77 teaching years was required for each pupil completing primary school, and 21.4 teaching years for each pupil permitted to enter into secondary education. Finally, on the basis of the 1964-65 figure of 37 repeaters for each 100 non- repeaters, primary enrollment at the stabilization point will total not 100 percent, but rather 137 percent of tho total of the six appropriate groups--i-  - 8 - other words, Tunisia will have "over universal" primary education. As it now stands, enrollments in 1968 wzill total near 114 percent of the appropri- ate age groups. If the cause could be ascribed to older pupils entering schools, as sometimes stated in official documents, the problem might be oonsidered transitory. But the real cause appears inherent to the system. 28. By eliminating repetition with -the ccnsequent significant re- duction in total enrollment, Tunisia cou:u effect important econcmies in the number of places, teachers and, therefore, money. While the supply of primary teachers is not a bottleneck, it would be possible to revert to a normal 30 hour week without increasing staff and expenditures too significantly. Due to double and even triple repetition, the number of repeaters is cumulative and constitutes not only a growing number, but a growing proportion of the total enrollnent in primary schools. And there can be little doubt that increased enrollments have been clerived more from increased repetition than increased entries. 1/ 29. Indirectly, the repetition in primary schools--and especially the 43 percent rate in the 6th grade--has an impact on secondary enroll- ments. The 6th grade enrollment, and consequently the number of pupils permitted to enter secondary education, grows at a faster rate than admittance in primary schoolsO, The ratio between the respective annual rates of increase is approximately 12 to 10. 30. The conclusion is inescapable that the progress of primary education is unhealthy particularly since under the Tunisian system, secondary education has its own specific aims in relation to which its proper rate of growth has to be calculated. The high repeater rate in all probability cannot be cured by administrative measures--a drastic restriction of the right to repeat under the present system, would probably result in an undesirable increase in dropouts. More basic adjustments are needed. If the average pupil needs eight years to complete primary education, the number of grade years should be extended from 6 to 8 or, alternatively, the level of attainment and/or the means cf evaluation have to be adjusted to the abilities of the average pupil. 31. Clearly, the attrition rate indicates that something is wrong with the system. The 1962 Plan attributes the situation to the lack of professional qualifications among the teachers and the social conditions of pupils, but the figures for attrition are not smaller in the towns where the conditions of life and the quality of the teachers presumably are better than in the couiitry. The'reduced weekly schedule also does _ot seem to be the main cause of failure, attrition being higher in the grades with a 25-hour schedule than in the two first grades wihich have only 15 hours. The main causes are apparently the excessive requirements of the curricula and above all the traditional means of assessing achieve- ments by way of formal examinations. I/ The analysis behind these statements is in Tables 5 and 60  32. The mission suggests that a rather drastic overhaul of the system is needed, to meet the goals usually set for primary schooling. These are: (1) to have almost all children normally complete the full course; (2) to have a reasonable percentage of children prepared to tackle secondary studies successfully. One possible system for reaching this goal might be five years continuous education, with repetition limited to exceptional cases and double repetition eliminated. At the end of these five years, an entrance examination for secondary school, with selection based on the needs for various types of education and training rather than on a fixed percentage. Curricula of such as five year course would naturally have to be re-examined on the basis of a careful study of present results of the pupils. The teaching of two languages--French and Arabic--in primary education undoubtedly is a complicating factor. But it does not seem possible to waive this, considering that vocational training, of even the simplest technical trades, is done in French. And one cannot deprive children at so early an age of their chance of pursuing secondary studies. These considerations will change when secondary technical instruction can be given in Arabic. 33. The log- am in the sixth year could be broken by introducing a split stream, one terminal ended by a certificate and the other preparatory, to the entrance examination for secondary school, with selection based on the just mentioned examination at the end of the fifth year. The key to eliminating repetition is to explain to the teachers that their job in primary school is, not to maintain a theoretical level by eliminating weak pupils, but to guide all of the children by a continuous progression to the end of the fifth year, where their orientation will be decided. If experience shows it to be necessary, it will be better to regroup where possible, a number of weak pupils and allow them to take three years instead of two, for the curricula of the third and fourth years. Adoption of such an expedient is, the mission feels, infinitely better than repetition. 34. Only after the measures recommended above begin to bear con- tinuous fruit arid the present excess of repeaters begins to deflate will it be possible t;o return gradually to a normal schedule of 30 hours without having to increase the number of teachers considerably over the present figure. In other words, to prevent an excess of expense during the period of reorganization, pedagogic improvements will have to be fi- nanced exclusively from the savings achieved by eliminating repetition. Pressures at the Secondary Level 35. The prime policy issue at the secondary level revolves around the problem of teacher supply. The increase in enrollment at secondary level, and consequently the need for additional teachers, has outpaced the output at higher levels of education; at the same time, secondary school output is still too small in comparison to total school popu- lation. The result is a bottleneck of classical proportions.  - 10 - .36. In 1964/65, for 65,900 pupils, there were 3,487 teachers, or one teacher for every 19 pupils, including 2,210 Tunisians and 1,280 expatri- ates. During 1965-68, enrollment will rise by about 56,500 to a level of 122,400. The need for new teachers is estimated at approximately 3,000. If this demand were to be met internally, which in any event would be physically impossible over the short-term, it would absorb about 87 percent, or almost the entire output, of professional-level Graduates from the school system. Education's current consumption of graduate output is running at about 47 percent and it could be argued that other professions of vital consequence to the economy are not getting their share. At the planned rate, the production of new teachers will be about 1,600 qualified teachers over 1965-68 leaving a shortage of 1,400 below the Plan figure which in the short run, could presumably be overcome by the recruitment of about 700 expatriates, the addition of about 250 technical instructors with secondary degrees, and by filling the remaining 450 vacancies by existing staff working extra hours. 37. Unfortunately, the teacher gap will become worse rather than better in the following period. By 1972-73, school enrollment at the secondary level is expected to rise to a total of 220,000; roughly 100,000 more pupils than in 1968/69. This will necessitate 5,000 more teachers. Of the 5,525 candidates expected to enter into higher and university education during 1965-68, it is not likely that more than 40 percent will end up as teachers. This means that during the years 1969-73 the education author- ities would be short of some 2,800 teachers. Clearly, neither the employ- ment of expatriate teachers, nor extra hours for existing staff nor whatever other means are devised, will be sufficien-t to close this pending gap. 38. Adjustments will need to be made, and the sooner the better. It would be possible, by making adjustments in the teacher training program, to staff all first cycle classes with personnel of assistant teacher rank. This rank should be made a regular part of the teacher corps, and, at least over the short term, the rate of output of assistant teachers should be doubled. The institution for training them is newly established Ecole Aormale des Professeurs Adjoints, a project supported by the UN Special Fund and assisted by UNESCO. The institution prepares, in a two- year post-secondary course (plus the usual probationary period), teachers for different tracks and subject matters, including technical, in inter- mediate and even the first grades of secondary schools. A further two- year course of study to be established shortly, will enable assistant teacllers to obtain the degree required for teaching in the last cycle of secondary schools. a three-year preparatory course is also offered by the institution. One hundred and thirty students graduated in June, 1965. A furt'ner 570 are expected to graduate during the next three years, giving a total of 700. The maximum production to be reached by 1972 is 200 grad- uates per year. Suclh a rate is far below the need for assistant teachers caused by the annual increase in enrollment. As mentioneci already, it is recommended that this institution be e-spected to double its present output.  - 11 - 39. There are, of course, many other possible ways to relieve the pressure, which are likely to involve structural changes. It is urgent to decide on the issues concerned before beginning the large secondary school construction program called for in the Four-Year I'lan. Initial measures, the mission believes, should specially aim at gaining the time needed for this purpose. 40. The most urgent measure for relieving the pressure is to reduce the demand for teachers by prolonging the teacher's work schedule (which is done partly by way of present staff working extra hours) and to increase the number of pupils per class. By raising the average number of pupils per class from 30 to 35 (except in workshops)-i.e., by reducing the teacher-pupil ratio from 1/19 to 1/23, Tunisia would achieve, on the basis of the figures for 1968/69, a saving of about 1,000 teachers. But this measure, essential and reasonable, is not enough for a longer term solution of the problem, which is linked to the pattern of growth of secondary education. 41. The number of graduates for the next six years, of course, are already in secondary school, and it is possible to increase their number only in two ways: i) by increasing the productivity of the secondary schools, and thus reducing dropouts and repeaters, which is not easy at this level, unless the curricula and the methods and requirements are modified (after analysis of the most frequent causes of school failures); and ii) by enabling a larger number of pupils in intermediate school to take complete secondary studies, which also is difficult under the present structure and curricula. 42. To carry out this strategy, it will be necessary to stop the growth of enrollment at the end of the first three years, but without jeopar- dizing the increase of future graduates. The best way to do this would be to stabilize total admissions at their present level, while favoring secondary admissions somewhat at the expense of the intermediate classes. This should not, however, be done at the expense of the technical sector. The commercial sector at the present level just about meets the expected future needs; therefore, the general sector in the intermediate classes would have to be considerably reduced. 43. It may even be necessary to go further and make changes which would help reduce the number of dropouts who are really dropouts--i.e., youth who interrput their studies to go to work without having any kind of skills. One might conceive, for instance, of a system whereby all the pupils admitted to secondary school henceforth, under a temporarily stabilized quota, will be included in an orientation class (7th grade). At the end of this first year, some pupils would then be oriented toward a brief two year technical course (industrial or agricultural). This approach would require provision for further vocational training outside the academic system. All of these possibilities warrant very early and very careful consideration and, where possible, implementation. It should be emphasized once again that a thorough overhaul of the present educa- tional system is urgent if the danger of a future collapse of the struc- ture as a whole because of financial restraints is to be avoided.  - 12 - lgricultural Education 144. Agricultural secondary schools are now isolated from the school system, and this in itself is probably their greatest weakness. Sections for agriculture could be easily integrated in a number of the multi- lateral schools located in the country or on the outskirts of smaller cities, in the middle of national grounds appropriate for practical work. Then more pupils would probably be attracted by and guided to this type of education leading to an occupation for which there is an urgent need. Furthermore, the establishment of such integrated sections would alleviate the problems of construction, administration and staffing which at present besiege agricultural education. 45. Students enrolling in the separate agricultural secondary schools must have passed the general entrance examination organized by the Ministxy of Education,, There is a first cycle of three years, specifi- cally intended to train the "agents techniques," or field officers. The second cycle of three years, provided in so-called "secondary colleges for agriculture," recruits graduates from the first cycle, or pupils who have completed the 10th or even the 9th grade of the ordinary secondary schools. The second cycle trains the "adjoints techniques," the agri- cultural technicians between the field officers and the university trained experts. 46. The National School for Agriculture (142 students) is intended to train agronomists at engineer (4 years) and chief engineer level (6 years). Vocational centers provide one or two years training in different skills (arboriculture, tractor drivers, mechanics). Farmer training is organized for adults on an ad hoc basis. 47. Compared with other types of education, the development of agricultural schools is recent and slow. In 1961, the number of schools was limited to 8 at intermediate level (814 pupils) and one secondary college with 164 pupils. At present, there are 16 intermediate colleges with 1,890 pupils (310 graduates) and 3 secondary colleges with a total of 440 pupils (45 graduates). It is planned to increase the annual number of graduates to about 110 (secondary) and 525 (intermediate) in 1967. In comparison with the needs of the 1965-68 Plan, the planned output will be 1,800 against 7,000 at intermediate level; 360 against 850 at full secondary level (technicians), and approximately 327 against 1,000 at high level (agrcnomists, veterinarians, foresters, etc.). 'Sp,ci rl efforts will need to be madc for increased enrolment and output in the agricultural stream .of secoQndtry eaucazion. lrs 'priority has to be given to the training of special teachers, on-the-spot or abroad. Plans have been made to establish a special Teachers' Training College, and assistance from the UN Special Fund has been requested. The numbers involved (130) might be too small to justify the establishment of a permanent training college, unless the development of agricultural education were planned in keeping with the actual needs.  - 13 - Output and Employment 48. Tunisia recently adopted (June 1965) the recommendations of ex- perts for a complete reorganization of its employment services; informa- tion on manpower needs should therefore over time be greatly improved. However, the forecasts used in the Plan, based on enquiries in various productive fields, are already indicative enough to conclude that the total output of post-primary education and training from 1966-68 is inferior at all levels to fill the new jobs to be created during this period, to say nothing of the backlog of vacancies existing in 1964 and normal replacement needs. 49. Employment for completers of the primary grades only may prove a serious problem: of the present pupils who do not qualify to enter secondary education, the chance of finding paid jobs is not higher than one to three. (This underscores the need for reform of the sixth year curriculum). For school leavers at secondary level, there is a distinction between pupils dropping out during the last three years of secondary school and those who leave school during the first cycle. The former may adapt themselves to the requirements of skilled clerical work or sub- professional jobs. But the second category, lacking any kind of special qualification, will only be qualified for jobs which are far below their level of expectation. The number of these dropouts is high but ccnceivable for Tunisia's type of school system and its rate of expansion, but it can be expected to increase year after year with the rise of secondary educa- tion, unless special efforts are made to increase the continuation rate. M4any of them could probably by proper guidance and vocational training be prepared to compete for skilled jobs, but the existing facilities for this even if increased as planned, will be greatly inadequate when compared with the expected number of dropouts (38,000 for 1965-68). 50. Centers for primary school Kropoutq, et up with assistance from UNICEF, are part of the vocational training progr-m undor the NIinistry of Social Affairs. Ihis special program coald be extended for the benefit of pupils completing the sixth grade of primary schcol. The extracurricula vocational training program involving schemes of apprenticeship, job probations and evening course, etc., appears generally well conceived. It is carried out in close cooperation with industry, which underwrites 25 percent of the operating expenses.i/ It is expected that the program can be expanded with a minimum of new investments, through greater utilization of existing facilities. l/ The National Institute for Productivity and Vocational Training, established in 1962 in Rades, near Tunis, with the assistance of the UN Special Fund and the cooperation of ILO experts now provides teacher traini; and research on the mothcdolog of training, but it is probably that in the near future, it will be charged with the administration and in- spection of the whole system of vocational training.  - 14 - 51. As in many countries the academic programs of technical training in intcrmediate schools do not prepare pupils sufficiently to entor directly into jcbs. Pupils who leave schools withl a "brevet", for instance, expect to find a well paid job as skilled workers. But industry is not particularly keen to hire them as such. In fact, the full-day vocational school, in spite of the number of hours devoted to workshop practice, is not able to provide pupils with more than a pre-vocational training, due to limitations of equipment, instructors, and work experience. These facts are becoming recognized, and it is expected that the academic programs will become more forthrightly pre-vocational. This will, of course, involve adjust- ments in curricula, methods and even equipment. 52. It can be noted that the volume of output in commercial courses, especially at intermediate level, is almost meeting the projected demand (2,200 against 2,400); it would be unwise to continue expanding this kind of training as foreseen in the Plan. About half the cutput frci the genorrl track of intermediate schools has bee-n going into teacher training, mostly the shortened training sections for future teachers in primary schools; a small part goes into the preparatory courses of the Assistant Teachers' Training College (see Paragraph 38), The intermediate schools constitute the main reserve for teaching candidates. The total output from intermediate tracks expected for 1965-68 is 16,400 of whom 7,900 will come from the technical industrial side. 53. Comparing the 1962 and the 1965 Plans, investment and current expenditures devoted to the educational institutions outside the Ministry of Education's jurisdiction--the specialized schools, etc..--are expected to increase at a higher rate than educational budgets. This trend is likely to go up in the coming years; it is imperative, therefore, to work out a revised comprehensive plan for all types of formal and informal education. The University of Tunis 54. Tunisia has followed a cautious and realistic policy toward develop- ment of the University of Tunis. At the time of independence, Tunisia had the traditional Zeitoun University and an existing institute for Higher Education (Institut des Hautes Etudes)-the latter forming the embryo of a modern university. But, in spite of the existence of plans and designs for a large university, it was decided as a matter of policy, to send a number of students abroad until the time when a sufficient number of graduates from secondary school would justiiy the progressive establishment of faculties. Even at the present time, with the commence- ment of the first years of university teaching, most of the institutions of higher learning are accommodated in existing buildings only roughly adapted to their purpose. It is now planned to initiate new construction during the four year period "as far as financial resources are available." This attitude is in sharp contrast to the "lavish" policy often applied in developing countries, which results in the multiplication of excessively expensive structures well equipped but short of students.  - 15 - 55. The teaching and research staff of university type education in Tunisia at present includes 156 permanent professors and lecturers (of whom 95 Tunisians) and 35 visiting professors. The student body increased from 2,600 in 1960/61 to 5,150 (4,650 Tunisians) in 1964/65. In addition, 3,500 study abroad, about 30 for architecture, 650 for engineering and industrial courses and 230 for agriculture. The National School for Agriculture is not at present related to the University. Of the total number of Tunisian students in Tunis or abroad, 3,830 received fellowships (3,162 of them from the Tunisian Government). 56. At university level, the allocation of grants, both national or external, is at the discretion of a national committee. The number of grants for each type of course of faculty is decided on annually in accordance to the needs as expressed in the Plan. 57. The 1965-68 Plan provides for the establishment of a School of Engineering and some research institutes. Research and Planning 58. In addition to the pressing problems at primary and secondary levels, the time has come to draw more precise plans and forecasts for university and specialized training. 5 The existing services for Educaticnal Planning Administration are hardly quipped to provide the type or thc voluc of work requirod at prcsent in the fLold of educational research and plannin~. Five institutiona could., under the uthority of the Iinistry, work together ior this purpose: a bureau ior school cr, nization and teaching methods, iwith a conpetence extending to all ranks ofecticm. a separate bureau of statistical planning, capable of drawing up models and revealing distortions, a bureau of construction planning, sufficiently staffed, and a bureau for studying educational costs, both recurrent and investment. The Assistant Teachers' Training College could play a very useful role in organizing and coordinating research studies, as well as in the training of research fellows. This is an area where outside assistance would be especially appropriate. Current Expenditures 60. Education is free at all levelse To avoid any kind of social discrimination, substantial aid is rendered to needy pupils through grants for boarders, free distribution of textbooks, and free lunches. The primary school lunch program, costing D 800,000 during 1965, is the kind of social project for which assistance might be sought from UNICEF or the World Food Program. 61. The share of expenditures going for staff, (89%) is on the high side (about 80 percent in the usual figure) because all expenditures for equipment, even to modernize existing schools, appear as investments rather than current expenditures and because most buildings and equipment  - 16 - are now new and require little maintenance, repair or renewal. This situa- tion will, of course, change in time and a significant increase in main- tenance expenditures can be foreseen here. 62. The small amount of expenditure for sentral administration reflects the smallness of the administrative staff in rela- tion to the tasks of management, supervision and research required by the rapid growth of the system. The strengthening of administrative and research staff, as is strongly recommended, will, of course, require some increase in expenditures. 63. The average unit costl(annual expenditures/number of pupils)in primary edu. :.ion i19 5 is D. 16.66. The resumption of a 30 hour schedule, which may be in general use by, say, 1973-74 (at 1 teacher for 40 pupils) would bring the unit cost of primary education (not including invisible increases in salaries) to the neighborhood of D 23.5. This average, applied to a student population of 1.2 million or so, would result in very high total costs for primary education. The importance of eliminating repeaters which represent an expenditure of more than D 3 million for 1965 alone is thus again underlined. 64. In intermediate education, considering the rate of retention, staff costs are also disproportionately high. Con- sidering the enrollment increases, the increase in expatriate staff (costing twice Tunisian salaries), and assuming that salaries will remain constant, the expenditures for secondary and intermediate education to- gether are likely to double every five years, if policies would remain the same. 65. For higher and university education, the rate of increase of expenditures will accelerate also, but more so in the next plan period, Expenditures connected with agricultural education and other special training programs will increase faster than for Ministry of Education programs. The average unit cost of agricultural education is compara- tively high: D 203 for intermediate and D 417 for secondary (in 1962). Amalgamation woulcl probably bring these down. 1/ The unit cost used in forecasting operational expenditures for primary education is based on the 1959/60 budget and is therefore cut of date. A salary of D 700 tias used in preparing the Four Year Plan; no provision for "invisible" increascs for promotion, .tc., Was madc. In six years the average yearly sal^ry of primary teachers has increased to at least D 821; it is probable that "other" expenditures included in the estimate of the unit cost have also increased.  - 17 - Investments / 66. For primary education, the Four-Year Plan allocation is based on a building iormula which calls for new classrooms at a rate equal to the number of new classes which are planned (4O pupils per class). Thus, one arrives at a total of new classrooms of L,120, but a further 700 would be needed by 1968 if the increasEd schedules for the 6th grade are fulfilled. Of the total, close to 3,800 would be of standard design, costing an average of D 1,000, and about 340 will be unique (usually in the towns), at an average cost estimated at D 3,000. The total classroom cost is estimated at D 8,278,000. iMiscellaneous construction of sanitary facilities, and teachers' lodgings, and the listing for equip- ment and replacement of obsolete school buildings, will bring total investment to D 10,675,000. This amount is 57 percent less than requested by the Minister of Education. The reduction was achieved by a simple bookkeeping reduction--not based on the ainalysis of actual costs--of the average cost per classroom from D 1,500 to D 1,000 for the standard type and frcm D 5,000 to D 3,000 for the individualized schools, and by considerably reducing the amounts requested for sanitary facilities, equipment, etc. Lven assuming that the initial requests were overestimated, it is improbable that the program of construction and equipment can be fully covered by the credits granted. It will be necessary to take other action to reduce the rate of increase in the number of pupils. The reduction of the construction program through exhaustion of finance would probably occur chiefly in 1968 (perhaps making impossible an increased schedule in the sixth year), see Table 20. The earlier that action can be taken to reduce the repeaters' rate, the sooner the result can be reflected in the construction program. 67. For secondary education, the building program is determined by the expect- ed increase in enrollment; but it takes into consideration also the desire to ccnsolidate various tracks into multilateral schools, and to reduce boarding pupils by judicious additions of new schools. In 1964/65, the 106 existing secondary schools (college and lycees), with few exceptions, reached the saturation point. The pressure of new admissions coming from the primary schools is extreme in most cases; the projects now being completed will make it possible to accept only about 8,800 of the 13,000 increment forecast for the 1965/66 school year. The situation may there- fore be regarded as critical, and any delay in the construction of new buildings is likely to disorganize the present educational program. 68. Investments are based on average costs per pupil, set at D 400 for the first cycle, D 550 for the technical sections of the camplete lycees and D 450 for the other sections of the lycees. The costs include purchase of land, study loans, replacement of obsolete buildings and, apparently, expenditures for equipment, for which no additional credit is provided. The total is D 25,051,000 including some projects that 2J Amounts of investment given below correspond to the figures in the Plan for commitments (Credits hngagEs) which are normally higher than investments to be actually paid (Credits Payes)  - 18 - are not expected to be completed until 1969. Some credits provided for the preceding period but not used are included in this amount. The Plan figures are h0 percent below the initial requests. The project costs of D 548 per pupil, (all categories lumped together) were arbitrarily reduced and requests were eliminated for extra expenditures on works in progress and for maintenance and replacement of buildings (professional fees f'or architectural studies were also eliminated). 69. A revision of the original list of projects is now in progress. As one adjustment, the Ministry has decided to replace plans for several schools of average capacity (600-900 pupils) with fewer multilateral and mixed schools with capacities of 1,200-1,400 pupils. The multilateral schools will be built to one of the Ministry's two standard designs (based on schools at Meenzel-Temime or Gromhalia). 70.. A preliminary list of projects (see Table 22), including 19 buildings (10 standard, 2 unique, and 7 complete lycees or enlargcments) would account for 48 percent of the total investments but accommodate only 38 percent of the additional pupils forecast for the four year period. Similarly, the schedule of finance (see Table 19) does not appear to allow enough construction time, on the basis of past experience. This may force the Ministry to open most of the worksites as soon as possible so that more disbursements Qani be made under 1966 allotments. 7' It is possible, but not certain, that a more rigid control of costs (which will require more stucly of costs) will make it possible to reduce the estimates in the latest project list. These estimates are already lower than prevailing costs, but a recent study (completed July 1965) by consulting architects proposes methods wzhich, if proved feasible, might result in schools being built at costs much lower than those now prevailing. The methods concerned ccnsist essentially of careful analysis of standards for buildings, materials and equipment. It is true, that actual constructions undertaken by the same group of consultants in Lekef, GaIsa and 6fax are no less costly than those built recently by local architects. But they were undertaken before the study was completed and are therefore not a good illustration. T2he next step should be an examination of the proposed standards, against the standards of two types already in use, which should give an indication of their soundness. 72. Xn any event, savings through better methods will have to compensate first for the recent devaluation and the general rise in construction costs which are not adequately reflected in the Plan estimates. For this reason, it is extremely doubtful that the investment funds for secondary construction will be sufficient to accommodate, even under mediocre conditions, all of the pupils who will swell the ranks during the four years. This is likely to have serious consequences, so that there is probably need for some more funds. This is not incompatible with the  - 19 - mission's recommendation that the rate of increase of secondary education be diminished a-t the level of admissions, especially in the intermediate schools. 73. These measures, it is hoped, will produce 3cme financial relief d=ring:the Four-Year Plan, but their full effect would come chiefly afterwards. ihey cannot be expected during the forthcoming period of crisis to compensate entirely for an insufficiency of investment funds. If asudden shortage of schools at the secondary level were to occur,this would require immediate and painful adjustments, but it would also have long-term effects on the development of Lunisia. It is through secondary education that the value of the investment in primary education is compounded. The mission feels that, whereas measures should be taken as soon as possible to meet the increase in secondary enrollment on a more rational basis, and to reexamine the costs of construction of secondary schools, investment funds to secondary education should be made available to the full extent necessary, even if it must be done at the expense of a program such as the D 17 million allotment for basic equipment in mass media and cultural activities, which are less urgently needed. 7L. The investmnents in higher and university education are related to specific projects (see Table 21). The allotment of slightly over D 9 million (plus D 1 million carried over from previous year) is 50 percent less than originally forecast. A small part of the funds are for financing temporary quarters; the bulk will go for starting the first stage of construction on six projects regarded as having priority in the growth of the universit;y. These six projects are the faculties of Medicine, Law Science, the National Engineering School the Assistant Teacher Training College and the New University City. 75. Except for the Nfational Engineering School, the sums forecast for each project relate to a relatively small portion of the works. It is assumed that a much greater financial effort will be necessary during the next Plan period, if the buildings are to be finished without delay. The construction of the Assista:it Teacher Training College, which would make it possible to increase the capacity to produce teachers is not scheduled to be completed in the four-year period. In view of the special need for this project, its completion should, in the mission's view, take priority, if necessary, over the construction of one of the faculties. 76. The investments forecast for agricultural education (D 3.0 million) and for vocational training (D 3.2 million) will go into projects-- various centers and schools-which are fully justified by the needs in these fields. The same holds true for the investments forecast for  - 20 - specialized education (D 525,000 for premedical education, for instance). It would, of course, be highly advisable to give the Ministries sponsoring these projects the benefit of the iiinistry of Education's experience in economizing onI school construction costs. q77 The D 17 miLlion forecast for cultural activities corresponds to a wide range of projects, not all of w,hich seem to have been studied in detail or to be of equally great urgency. It would be well to make these investments only to the extent that funds are not needed for the sectors of education hav:ing true priority, especially secondary education. 7S. As a final point, the total financial aid received by Tunisia for the support of education--current as well as investment--is a very small amount, considering the magnitude of the financial commitments made by the country itself, and the stake involved in building an adequate reservoir of educated manpower.  Ail [i I TUNISIAN SCHOCL SYSTEM 6 7 8 9 tO I 12 13 14 15 16 17 ENSEIGNEENrT xOYEN Sechon generale