Tunisia - Economic development plan (Vol. 3 of 3) : Agriculture and fisheries

AF 8 A. VOL. 3 This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION AGRICULTURE AND FISHERIES TUNISIA April 11, 1963 Economic Staff  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Tunisian Dinar 1 = $2. 38 U.S. $1. 00 = Tunisian Dinar 0.42  ANNM X AGRICULTURE AND FISHERIES General 1. In Roman times the main agricultural products of Tunisia were cereals, olive oil, wine and various fruits. To a large extent the same still holds today, and experts can show you olive trees, which were sup- posedly planted in Roman times and still bear today. The bulk of T-unisian agriculture is still largely traditional based on olives, cereals, fruits and age-old production methods. However, since the Protectorate in 1881 French colonists planted cereals in large areas of the better soils in the North, using more up-to-date farming techniques, and modern agriculture now covers about one third of the good cultivable land. Consequently the agricultural economy of Tunisia can be regarded as a dual economy, con- sisting of a small modern sector and a large "traditional sector". 20 The more primitive agriculture apparently has hardly prbfited from the example and experience of its more advanced neighb6r. There are various reasons for this, which more or less characterize Tunisian agriculture and present major problems for development. First, there are human and psycho- logical factors such as: a very low level of education, strcng conservatism and distrust of outside or foreign elements, the general reluctance ef subsistence farmers to jeopardize their living by experimenting with other ways and means of productions Secondly, there are ec:onomic factors: most subsistence oroducers are ec6nomically too weak ts be able to increase input.s for a possible higher production. Savings are practically non- existent and credit facilities are either highly inadequate &r tend to be used for consumnption. In the third place, technical factors limit the development of tr.;.(itional agriculture: mcdern agriculture had usua ly taken over the be.; lands, in particular with regard te water supply, the essertial factor in Tunisian agriculture. Finally, tradlitions and laws of land ownership: small lots or specific rights on "habousftj lands hampered development of more efficient production meth&ds. 3. The general objective of the Tunisian government is to increase production by changing the economic and social elements in this picture and also where possible to improve technical conditions (reforestation, anti-erosion, irrigation) althoigh it is realized that nature puts certain limits to potential expansiqn../ The "habous" is an institution of the Koran laws in which rights on and yields from some lands can be set aside for religious or general purposes, either immediately or after death of the original owner(s). The system was abolished by law of July 7, 1957. j At least, when one wants to keep reasonable cost levels in mind.  -2- Natural Conditions 4. The total area of Tunisia is about 15 mln. ha. of 7hich roughly 9 mln. ha. are counted as agricultural. For all practical purposes the actual agricultural area (annual and tree crops) is just about over 3 mln. ha., the rest being 3.1/2 mln. ha. alfa and poor pasturage, nearly 1 mln. ha. of forests and 1.3 mln. ha. of fallow or uncultivated areas. The determining factor is water supply. In the North with a rainfall of 500-1,500 mm. per year, agriculture has the best possibilities. In the Center and South, rainfall decreases rapidly till desert conditions are reached. Low rainfall in the Center and South limits agriculture mainly to extensive livestock-raising, tree crops (olives) and some rather poor subsistence agriculture (hard wheat and barley). Nore effective and in- tensive agriculture here is only possible under irrigation. The total ir- rigated area in Tunisia is not more than about LO,000 ha. (about 1% of the cultivated area proper) which at most could be expanded to 80-100,000 ha. in the next 5-10 years. 5. As rainfall is not only low in many areas but also very erratic (1960 and 1961 were drought years) and untimely (October rain is needed for seeding and April rain for final growth of the major crop: cereals), pro- duction varies greatly and during bad years many small producers barely manage to subsist. 6. Apart from lack of water, the water available is often salty especially in summer when there is little rain. This limits irrigation possibilities and requires expensive drainage in many cases. These prob- lems of salinity- are still being studied and a definite solution has not been found yet. 7. Another notural handicap is erosion. During ancient times the country was extensively covered with forest but through the ages the forest cover has been destroyed and serious problems of erosion, as well as aridity (leading to the advance of the desert to the North), have arisen. 8. Yet notwithstanding the above-mentioned natural handicaps, there is still a good potential for expansion. And also more broadening of production is quite possible. However, the realization of this potential is not easy. This is a central problem in the Plans. Agriculture in the General Economy 9. With about 70-75% of the active male population engaged in agri- culture, this sector produces about 30% of Gross Domestic Product. It must be realized of course that this large agricultural labor force includes a large amount of un- and under-employment. Furthermore with the erratic level of rainfall and consequent large variations in production the share of agriculture in the national product can vary s trongly. The added value of output in agriculture in the period 1950-1959 varied between 52 million dinars and 91 million dinars (at 1957 prices), or between 25 and 35% of GNP. A good or a poor crop year can change the National Product by 10-15%.. As  it is now fairly sure that after two lean years the 1963/64 olive crop will be very good,this alone might mean a difference of 10 million dinars or more in the National Product (that is about 3%X). 10. Exports of agricultural products in 1959 and 1960 (1961 was a very poor crop year) at an average of 35 million dinars constituted about 65% of total exports. Major export products are olive oil, hard wheat, wine, barley, citrus-fruits and other fruits and vegetables. 11. The farmers' organization, l'Union Nationale des Agriculteurs Tunisiens (U.N.A.T.) takes an important place in the agricultural policy of the country. It has a strong regional organization. It takes a part in extension, assists in organization of marketing and gets much of its power as consultative organization for the government in matters of agri- cultural policy. There are also groups for special commodities, such as olive oil (Office de l'Huile), cereals, citrus, dates, and wine. Membership of these groups is compulsory for producers, trade and cooperatives for the commodities in question and gives these organizations a strong control in agriculture. For export these organizations also have various regulations, such as for instance limiting trade permits to a minimum volume of shipments per year. The Structure of Agriculture 12. At independence 4,700 foreign landowners held a total of 600,000 ha.; 5,000 Tunisian modern farmers 400,000 ha. and 450,000 small farmers 3.1/2 mln. ha. Part of these foreign lands belonged to corporations (for instance in the area of the Erfida) or where cultivated by professional managers for the overseas owners. At present this foreign section is in the process of take-over and the situation is changing rapidly. Probably around 300-350,000 ha. are still in foreign hands. Wherever irrigation is being developed and production cooperatives are being organized the status and size of the Tunisian farms presently are also being changed. 13. There is a strong predominance of cereals, almost 2 mln. ha. of land is used for these; olive trees occupy about 760,000 ha., other tree cultures (citrus, apricots, almonds, etc.) almost 100,000 ha., grapes close to 50,000 ha. and dates 10,000 ha. Beans, vegetables, industrial and forage crops take about 150,000 ha. There is hardly any proper pasture land, as cattle is usually kept on fallow land, some poor r?habous" common land and in general wherever it can get something to feed on. There are about 600,000 cattle 1/ and 3.1/2 mln. sheep 1/ at present in Tunisia. With few exceptions, the livestock is in a rather poor condition. 1/ From FAO Production Yearbook 1961. Tunisian data on livestock differ much in various sources.  - 4 - 14. In general, the foreign and Tunisian modern agriculture was mostly concerned with cereals, but also grapes and some large olive-tree areas were included in the French and other foreign farm areas. Yields, of course, in the foreign-owned, better, areas were much higher than in traditional agri- culture and it is estimated in one of the Plan documents that the 600,000 ha, of mostly foreign holdings produced 40% of the countryts agricultural productlor 15. As far as cereals are concerned, hard wheat is the main variety because of climatic conditions. In general it gives lower yields than soft wheat, but also usually brings a much better price and is, from a world market poilnt of view, less in over-supply than soft wheat. Apart from being one of the main export commodities for Tunisia (mainly to France) hard wheat also takes an important place in the Tunisian diet, and in particular in the sub- sistence economy of the rural population. 16. Cereal yields in Tunisia on the average are quite low, and, apart from Libya, in general are below comparable yields in other North African areas. These average yields, however, do not give the true picture. Firstly, they are the average of the reasonably good yields obtained on European and modern Tunisian farms and the low yields in traditional farming. The former are often double the latter. Secondly, the country figures average the yields from the North where generally good or fair conditions exist for growing cereals, with the yields from the Center and South where some very poor sub- sistence durum, wvheat and barley cultivation is maintained under conditions which are almost impossible. 17, The following table, calculated from the 1959/60 report of the Banque Nationale Agricole, illustrates these points: YIELDS IN QX. (100 KGo)/HA. IN 1960 Hard Wheat _ Soft Wheat European TiiT_sa European Tunisian Lands Lands Lands Lands North 7.1 3.8 8.7 5-3 Center and South 4.6 1,5 8.0 2.6 18. Olives, some years the most important crop in value, also sh<o widie variations in yields. The usual sequence in production is: poor, medium, good crop year. Changes in rainfall and also differences between the more  Southern main area and the Northern olive groves) lead to great variations ir, the size of the crop. In 1960, a very good year, the crop yielded 1238,000 tons of olive oil, in 1955 it was only 22,000 tons, the 1961 crop was also very low (32,000 tons) and this year, 1962/63, the crop is estimated at 45,o00 tons. 19. In citrus fruits Tunisia produces good qualities but the yield per tree is rather low, mainly because of insufficient water in some areas during the hot summer season and also because the application of fertilizer for tree crops is as yet little developed. 20. In early vegetables (particularly artichokes, asparagus) good qualities are produced under irrigation. Most of these are produced very early and so far have a good export market in Western Europe, although Southern Italy and Sicily in certain irrigation perimeters might follow with only a seasonal delay of a couple of weeks. 21. A rather new crop is sugar beets for the new sugar factory in Beja. Seeding in fall and harvesting in spring gives good results, although rainfa-l limits the area to be put under this crop. 22. In a reasonably good crop year, 1960, the value of various crops was calculated as follows: VALUE OF CROPS (in millionscf dinars, at 1957 prices) Cereals 18.3 of -whifh Hard 'heat (13.3) Be--ns ana -eas 0.6 Veg- ables 7.2 Fruits 38.4 of which Olives (25,0) (exceptionally good crop) Total 6h.5 23. Mechanization in Tunisian agriculture was mostly limited to the modern sector for the cultivation of cereals. The Perspectives estimated the number of tractors available at about 3,000, whereas for 1971 a need for almost 18,000 tractors has been projected, The material sometimes was rather heavy (chain-tractors) and often of older French makes. However, as long as it was well maintained and regularly replaced it was sufficient for that sector. The last few years, however, both maintenance and replacement have been almost cbmpletely neglected by the foreign farmers, and at present this stock of agricultural mechanical tobls and machines is in pocr shape. This is not only a question of new material but also rnlairiterninpe, as qualified mechanics are lacking au  - 6 - 24. For the rest of agriculture, age-old methods of working the soil are still in use and the only suppliers of power are the ox, mule, donkey and camel In many cases in the South the soil is just scratched, seed is spread and if the weather is favorable some crop may be harvested. 25. In livestock the traditional methods result in very low yields. Dairy and meat production are far below the country's needs. The production of wool depends very much on the numbers - which vary from year to year depending on the weather - of the rather low quality herd and in general yields a very coarse products 26. In general, the modern and mainly foreign sector operated under the most favorable conditions and, apart from weather influence, got satisfactory results, The traditional sector was handicapped by poorer natural assets, unsatisfactory production methods and consequently low productivity. The Perspectives Plan 27. The policy of the Tunisian government as embodied in its Plans is: to increase the productivity of the backward, traditional sector in agriculture, to take over the foreign modern sector in agriculture within the next 3 years, and for both sectors to bring about some changes in the traditional crop patt6rn, 28. As a result the Perspectives forecast the value of agriculture pro- duction (at fixed 1957 prices) to increase from a yearly average of 76 millien dinars during 1959-1961.7 to 119 million dinars in 1971, a compound rate of growth of about 4.1% per year. The relative share of agriculture in G.D.P. for these periods is to decline from 29% to just below 25%. A summary of the quantitati-ve goals is shown in the following table: PLANNED INCREASE IN AG-RICULTURAL PRODUCTION (thousand tons) 1955-1959 Average-i 1971 Planned Darum BTh t 36h 665 Soft Wheat 122 192 Barley 188 258 Total Main Cereals m71, T Olive Oil 75 110 Citrus Fruits 65 180 Grapes 300 300 Dates 36 178 Almonds and Apricots 14 39 Sugar Beet 35 / 125 Market Gardening 315 777 Livestock Products (exol. milk) 40 68 a/ Used as base period in most Plan calculations, but not entirely representative for the recent situation at the start of the Plan period. Source: 1962-71 Tunisian Development. 1/ Present. 1/ 1959-1961 has been selected as the base period in this appendix because it gives the most recent available data and averages a good, normal and poor crop year.  - 7 - 29. The targets are to get a higher output of Tunisials diet staple items, cereals and olive oil (the production in cereals is supposed to be obtained from a reduced area, by increasing the yields), and to diversify at the same time through a further emphasis on tree crops and a strong expansion of market gardening, sugar beets and livestock products. 30. The goals in the 10-Year Plan have been set on the basis of a pro- jection of consumption needs, supplemented by an appraisal of estimated production possibilities. Each of these determining factors has some weak points which have been discussed in the main report. 31. To reach the goals the 10-Year Perspectives calculated net investments in the period 1962-1971 for agriculture at 340 million dinars, that is 385 of the total net investments estimated for the Perspective Period. In the Three- Year Plan, 1962-196h, net investments have been calculated at 106 million dinars or almost 407Z of the total (see tables 10 and 11). 32. The Perspectives have primarily given a lot of attention to the improvement of the agricultural structure. These programs in agricultural infra-structure concern in the first place water supply, that is control oi water by anti-erosion works and also increase of water supplies for irrigation by building large and small dams, constructing wells, irrigation and drainage ditchks, etc. Reforestation and restoration of exhausted or depleted soils come also under this heading. For this soil conservation and improvement, irrigation and forests the total investment amounts to over 155 million dinars in the 10-Year Perspectives (over 451% of total net investments in agriculture) ard 46 million dinars in the 1962-1964 Plan, or also close to 15% of the total for agricuilture. Other general measures are improvement of agricultural credi: and extension and trLniing of cadres by an extensive educational program. E-pansion of applied research and general studies of soils, water supplies, etc. (in many cases with techznical assistance from FAO, UNESCO, tUiN and other,, are included in the overall program. Nleasures to incirease the power equipment for farming form also part of these plans. 33. Many of the other goals in the Perspectives on housing and health, etc. tie in with the program of improvement in agriculture. 3Li. Most oi these programs are essential and must have top priority, if any improvement in agricultural production is to be possible at all. Education of the farmers and water supply appear, rightly, to be among the most essential tasks set by the Perspectives since lack of trained manpower and extension workers as well as lack of good water are the main bottlenecks in Tunisian agriculture. 35. Another feature of the investments in agriculture is the avowed policy to direct a considerable part of these to the Center and South where rainfall is much less favorable than in the North. A complete regional breakdown of investments has not been worked out but the declared policy of the govern- ment in essence is that in relation to production and population rather large amounts are to be spent in these more marginal production areas.  - 8 - 36. Irrigation is the main elemenit, 109 million dinars out of 155 million dinars in the total agricultural infra-structure investments for the Perspec- tives. The main category is irrigation from big dams, with a total capacity of 240 mln. m3, the cost of which amounts to 43.5 million dinars about evenly distributed between the dams and irrigation canals and ditches. lliddle and small dams, with a capacity of 33 mln. m3, is to require 9.1 million dinars, of which also nearly 50% for canals and ditches. Much attention is given in the Perspectives to the development of wells and small water points of which about 1,000 will be created, each irrigating between 1-10 ha. The average construction costs of these wells is estimated at 1,500 dinars plus 1,000 dinars for equipment. There are also funds for subsidies to the construction of private wells. The total amount projected for these small irrigation sources is 33 million dinars. 37. Individual yield or profit calculations for these investments have not been made in the Perspectives. Very rough calculations of the yield of the investments in irrigation show a total average cost of about 2,000 dinars per ha. if it is assumed that the investment outlays -iven in the Perspecti-'es (see appendix table 10) as a whole increase the irrigated area by about 60,000 ha. Wlhen, of course, other investments for an irrigation perimeter, such as roads, reallocation of lots, buildings, etc. are also taken into account the cost per ha. might be substantially higher. On the other hand, some of the investment cost in some of the projects should be charged against the provision of water for people and industry. The yield of an irrigated area can be 350 to 800 dinars per ha., compared to unirrigated land yields of 20-100 dinars per ha. (dependent on the natural water supply and kind of crop). As all these very roughly estimated figures are averages, there must be cases in wqhich the development of irrigated area will turn out to be extremely expensive conpared to expected yields. 38. Soil conservation and improvement, for wl.ich 26 million dinars have been forecast in the 10-Year Plan, also includes water control. Some 634,000 ha. are to be ccntoure'Ld, 110,000 ha. reforested and various other action taken to improve soil fertility. 39c Further development of the Banque Nationale Agricole is envisaged. A special bank for cooperative credit which was organized a few years ago has been liquidated now (and taken over by the Banque Nationale Agricole), as this spread the very few competent people available in this field too thinly. In agricultural training an enormous gap has to be filled. The Perspectives project training of 940 agricultural engineers in the 10-Year Plan period and over 7,500 medium and lower extension and technical agricultural workers. This represents a many-fold expansion of the small number of these trained people now available. 40. In the field of mechanization the old agricultural machinery has largely to be replaced and also shifts have to be made from light to medium- powered tractors and machines. One of the main problems here will be the organization of maintenance.  41. Altogether these overall agricultural objectives make sense in the areas for which they are planned. It cannot be denied that Tunisian agri- culture needs these improvements to be able to produce more. lhether the exact targets set for 1971 can be reached is impossible to say. However, these should be considered more as target directions rather than as firm quantitative goals. 42. The various sector targets for agriculture in the 10-Year Perspectives must also be regarded as directions in which the development is supposed to take place, and the discussion of the sector investment plans for 1962-1971 below will be in a very summarized form. 43. The major' item in the sector program is "Forage Crops and Livestock" showing an investment target of almost 70 million dinars for the next 10 years. This indicates a proper emphasis on developing livestock. Everybody agrees that this branch of agriculture is very backward. On the other hand, proper development in this field implies a big change in attitude towards the care of livestock, which might take longer to inculcate than the short 10-Year period of the Perspectives. Forage production is supposed to increase by about 30,; in the Center and South and to be of better quality. In the North fallow practices are to be changed to increase production of forage. In livestock numbers, cattle are to decrease slightly in number but to be of much higher quality. For sheep, numbers will be increased, in particular in the North. 44. The next important sector of investments (49.6 million dinars) is the production of cereals. Both in the South and North a decline in surfaces of about 270,000 ha. each (in total about 23%) is planned but because of higher yields production is expected to reach over 1.1 mln. tons compared to 0.66 mln. tons au present. Costs incidental to the take over of foreign-owned farms and reorganization and mechanization are the main costs of this program for cereals. 45g Besides livestock, diversification in agriculture will mainly be in an expansion and imprcvement of tree cultures (the cost of these is projected at Li9 million dinars in 10 years). The number of apricot, almond, peach, pr'ane, pear and apple as well as citrus trees is to increase in the Center and South as well as in the North. For grapes (except for a small quantity of table grapes) no further growth of output is projected because of limited market possibilities. The area under table olive trees is to increase to about 10,000 ha. in the North and the total olive oil production is to grow from better selection and production methods both for domestic consumption and for exports. 46. In dates, also a strong increase is being projected based on higher yields and a greater number of hectares allowing for higher domestic con- sumption and exports. 47. Finally, the Perspectives foresees investments of 12.3 million dinars for a strong expansion of vagetables, mainly on irrigated areas (the cost of irrigation not being included in this amount). Surfaces are projected to increase from 26,400 ha. to almost 50,000 hia. and production volume is cal- culated to increase from 315,000 tons to 777,000 tons. By selection of higher valued species the value of production is supposed to increase from 4.6 million dinars to 13.9 million dinars.  10 _ The Pre-Plan 1962-164 48. In the more detailed calculati