Jordan - Issues of employment and labor market imbalances (Vol. 2 of 2) : Annexes and statistical appendix

Report No. 5117-JO Jordan Issues of Employment and Labor Market Imbalances (in Two Volumes) Volume II: Annexes and Statistical Appendix May 1986 Division 2C Country Programs Department II Europe, Middle East and North Africa Region FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of ihe World Bank This report has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS 1982 1983 1984 1985 1 Jordan Dinar (JD) = US$2.84 US$2.75 US$2.60 US$2.54 1 US Dollar ($) = JD.352 JD.364 JD.384 JD.394  FOI OFFICL USE ONLY MANPOWER DEVELOPMENT IN JORDAN ANNEXES AND STATISTICAL APPENDIX (VOLUME 2) Table of Contents Page No. ANNEXES 1 The Compound Model: An Integrated Computer Based 1 Manpower Forecasting Model 2 Demand and Supply Assumptions Used in the Model 12 3 Present Population Structure 32 4 Proposal for Management Training in Jordan 43 5 Present System for Human Resources Infornmation 47 and Planning 6 Wages 52 7 Mini-Survey on Working Women in Jordan 55 STATISTICAL APPENDIX This document has a rstr distuibution and may be ud by mcipients only in the poformce cf their omcial dutieL Its contents may not othenise be dickled without Wodd Bank auth_riatn.  ANNEX1I Page 1 of 9 The Compound Model mA Intasrztad Cosmuter Based Yanow?er Foreesatin Model  -2- ANNEX 1 Page 2 of 9 THE MAMPOWER M?DEL 1. Tntroduction The manpower model ha been deveoped by the Technicbl Assistance and Special Studies Division of the Europe, Middle East, and North Africa Project. Department of the World Bank, with the problm of both labor iUortftg mn exporting countries In mind. The principal appLicaLionh for planners are: (i) to forecast manpowar requirements (national and expatriate) required to meet specific sectoral output targets; and (ii) to idantlfy and isolate specific problems in the supply of manpower through simulation of flows of students and trainees through the education and training system In the light of-such modifiable parameters as participation, repetition and drop-out rates, and qualifications required to enter program. The system also prmits the planner to set specific maupower targets. thrqugh an allocation sub-model, such as maximiznug the number of nationals in certain occupational categnrissain a given sector or optimizing the allocation of qualified labor to occupatios In those sectors of the economy which are considered as having a high priority. Since the model incorporates sectoral production targets, together vith certain assumptions about productivity growth for the sectors concerned, the modal cm also be used to estimate what production levels might be achelved In give aectors working with existing and likely Indigenous manpower stocks but with certain lImits. if so desired, placed on the growth or overall numbers of expatriate upowr. II. The ModelI and its Sub-Models A simplified schema of the model is: figure 1 Latbor~~ [ ~~~Model a_ Inut Data _ RequirementsI SiEucation a L _ Model CtSM) odel  6 . ,-3 - .. ANNEX 1 Page 3 of 9 A more analytical schema is given in Annex I. The reader may wish to refer to It while reading the following paragraphs which provide a descrip- ciou of the functions, principal dara requirements and some of the assoc4ated reportC of the sub-models, beginning with the manpower requiremeuts model. A. Iapoer Requirements Model (MRM) C.) Function: The )RM requires specification of sector production targets (usually on the basis of a development - . . plan). Its principal function is to calculate occupational requirements (nationals) in the light of assumptions about initial productivity in. the base year and productivLty grovth. Requirements are then expressed In terms ok educational qualifications. For example, senior technical occupations may be regarded as requIring a science or matb- based degree or, a more specific example, an agricultural project manager would require a higher agricultural qualification; (- ) Principal Data Requirements: * - ^(a) GDP by sector (base year); (b) annual sector targets for projected years; (c) sector productivity for the base year; (d) sector productivity growth rates. :WLabor-output elasticities can also be used to estimate - -remployment needs, if desired. (iii) Associated Output Reports: (a) expected production by sector and related manpower requiremants by occupation within sector, by year, lndicating available mationals, existing expatrzates - - and net additional requirements (RAR); and (b) aggregated manpower requirements by sector. * 5. labor Force Model (LF,. (1) Function: Identifies available national labor force ac beginning of each slmulation year by occspntion within osctor and applica an attrition rate (Eventually, a promotion filter. to take account of movement upwards in the occupational structure or lateral rransfcr may be incorporat- ed in later versions of the model); takes account of available nov labor force entrants from the Education Simulation * . Model (Es?O, after applying a participation tilter Cfor - -. example, JOt all outputs from lower secondary girls' programs will enter the labor force.-some wini marry); provides the I-t supply of mapover for the asiulati$o year; "all *  -.4- ANNEX 1 Page 4 of 9 (i) Principal Data Requirements: (a) labor force for the base year disaggregated by nationals and expatriates (up to ten separate nationalities or groupings of nationalities) by occupation vithin sector; and Cb) attrition rates by occupation within sector, and by nationality (average "stay" as estimated from i"igration records cma be used for expatriates). (11i) Principal Reports: - national labor force by occupation Withln sector, Indicating: - labor force at beginning of the s-iulition year; _ numbers affected by attrltlon; -labor force subsequent to attrition; - current labor force allocations from the ESM; total labor force availability at the end of the sxmulation year. *3 national labor force disaggregated by occupations (summed across sectors); - national labor force by sectors (occupations sumed); - analyses of expatriate labor force by nationality. by sector, occupation for the simulation year, indicating: expatriate labor force; attrition (numbers affected); expatriate labor force after attrition; expatriate reqtiraments needed to fil deficits (after allocation of nationals to the sector/occupational matrlx in light of established priorities); and net importation of expatriates. C. Education Simulation Model (ESt) (1) Function: The ES? simulates flows of students and t-rain es through the system or the basis of Initial enrol=nts (in the base year) and assuptions about participation rates (of girls and boys in a program or percentage of an age group or yet again percentage of graduates entering a courme from a previous one-for example, percetage of primary graduates going to either lower secondary general or into the labor force). repetition rates and drop-out rntes. These parameters can be changed to reflect educational policy decisions such as: higher partlclpation of girls in a given program; Incresed flows from secondary to vocational/technical programs or specification of particular proportions of upper secondary school entrants to literary and science-oriented courses; introduction of "automatic promotion" or limiting of repetition to a minimum number of times. For the purpose of flows to the labor force, the model considers any year of program as an exlt point (each program year Is called a "course") classifn leavers in teS ways (boy/girl; completer/drop-out).  -5- ANNEX 1 Page 5 of 9 As indicated in Figure 2, from the ESM courses "emit points", one could feed through a participation matrix into "pools" from which a given occupation in specified sectors can draw. This provides a certain flexibility: it night be assumed, for example that skilled clerical occupations might draw upon completers (but not drop- outs) from years 2 and 3 of the preparatory course. The planner can, in fact, insert his own information about changing recruitment practices of employers. This flexibility is important since supply surpluses or shortrgea may, respectively, raise or lower recruitment levels as expressed in educational attainment. One inviolable rule of the system is that no sector/occupational matrix cell (SOM)LI may draw upon more than one "pool". However, a "pool" can be made as large or as small as conditions warrant. The total number of pools is bounded by the size of the SOM (Annex 2) which has 13 occupations x 18 sectors (- 234 pools). In order for the ESM-to operate, the base llffe data are as follows: (il) Data Requirements: - base year enrolments of nationals in each course (aF defined above - this mcans for every year of every program, in every level and branch of the system) together vith age/grade distributio. if possible. - participation, drop-out and repetition zates; - stock of teachers by type (optianl); and - desirable student/teacher ratios for each program (optionl). (iii) Principal Reports: - status of underage school leavers by age and level (too young to enter labor force) if the age/grade distributin is given; - current leavers and potential particip-ts ("filter-ed for participation) by grade sad progroL. /1 That is, an occupation In a given sector, represented by a single cell In the matrix illustrated in Annex 2.  Iigu:e 2s The Marikovian Bile of the SNs. (Possible new entrants are allowed) Repeater Entrant Continuing completer fropout Ron-continuing completer Exit points from ETS Notet Each itudent in any given couroe has one of four possible successor statesi (1) repeater In same coursel (ii) completer continuing to successor courseg (iii) non-continuing completer% (Iv) non-completing dropout. The last two constitute exit points. from the ETS., o 0  ANNEX 1 Page 7 of 9 D. Manpower Poilcy Model LKM= (I) Functions: The MPM allocates supply from the labor force and from the ESM to the overall SOM (See Annex 2) according to specific priorities. For example, in allocating manpower witb professional qualifications and senior technical - -., qualifications--engineero, say -a priority might be assigned to these occupational categories within the oJ.il Industry and within other sectors considered as strategically important-public util4ties or communications depunding on the country. The MPM can also be setito maximize the number of natoDnals employed in a specific occupation within a sector. In a case where supply is greater than demand, adjustments required relative to -participation and repetition coefficients in the TEMS will have to be made. AlternativeI3, the planner may adjust entry requirements elsewhere, introducing alternative follow-on courses. In cases where supply is less than demand, the moat critical priorities vill be satisfied first. Where priorities are equal and supply insufficient, allocation between occupatio/sector cells Is made on the basis of each cell's net re rents weighted by the degree of nationalization already obtained; (1i) Data Requirements: - SO) prioritieSL -percentage of nationalization targets; (ii) rlncipal. Reports: - allocation reports such as allocation of "pooled" leavers by occupation within sector; -nationalization progrm ayalsis report:. (a) sector/occupation requiremeto; (b) existIng national laor force; (c) nationalization; (d) nuiber of natlonals needed; /1 These p ritits may be judgemental or based on labor market survey desigued to Inventory critical sklll nadee of public and private eaterpriSe.  -8- ANNEX 1 Page 8 of 9 (e) difference (a) and (b); (f) current ESM supply; (g) net additional requirements - nationality analyses of labor force by sector and occupation (Z by each nationality for every occupation within a given sector); - total sector employment diitributed by nationality; - total employment by occupation distributed by nationality group; - comparison of target sectoral outputs with "achievable" outputs, given existiig labor force (natioual plug expatriate). - manpower availability by "Pool"; (iv) Allocation of Ex&atriate Personnel: Once the available national labor force has been allocated to the SOM (i.e, the existing labor force less attrition, plus new entrants from the ESM) the residual requirements-:in the form of expatriate personnel- can be estimated. The allocation of expatriate personnel may be constrained In several ways: - general availability; - availability of the specific skill 'mix" required; - government "tolerance" levels set for certain nationalities or nationality groups (given their existence in certain numbers in the country); - eventually, the costs of different expatriate Croups may also be a major constraint. The allocation of expatriates to the SOM cells is made by a linear programming model (LP2) which can respect these constraints. Since the model as a whole accomodates up to ten nationalities or national groups and there are 234 cells in the SOM, the total variables (or possibilities of assignment or a nationality "pool") are 2,340. To make allocation less complex, the SOM has been partitioned into critical 8kill areas (for example, a "partition" might be managerial and senior technical posts in three key sectors). The LPN allocates available expatriate labor, in the light of such constraints as previously mencioned, to the most critical partition, them proceeds to the next partitiou 4hlle taking into account these from a gi--en natlonality and/or skill mix who have already been "used" In the pre-ious allocation). The process continues until all the residual requirements in the SON have been satisfied.  -9- ANNEX 1 Page 9 of 9 III. Application The model has been applied in several Middle Eastern countries for manpower projections and policy analysis. A revised version of the model which permits regional, inter-country manpower allocation has been developed and will be used by the Bank in its Regional Study of Labor Mlgrntion, designed to simulate the impact on labor supplier and importer countriea in the Region_/l This is possible because each country can be treated as a quasi-region within a "macro-country" repreaented by the Region. This resenrch effort i!. expected to throw light on the increasing problems relating to inter-country competition for expatriate labor and to the corollary problem of labor deficiency and its impact on the economies of supplier countries. The primary usefulness of the model for country-level planning lien in lts abllity to focus Attention on the feasibility of renching given development targets in those countries where labor, rather than capitai, is a major constraint. The model, by simulating (with real data from the education/training system) likely supplies of trained nationals can show: - what additional Imports of expatriate labor will be required to reach specified output plan targets; - what output targets by sector can be achieved with existing labor. It can also bighlight the feasibility of specifie manpower targets. For example, country x determines to attain total nationalization of occupations which are considered critical to the maintenance and operation of key lnfrastructure such as ports, power plants, refineries. i BHow soon can this goal be achieved, if at al? What modifications, in terms of program,. training infrastructure, Instructoro and re-directed ' I wtudent flEoIw, will be needed if the goal In to be achieved within a reasonable time horizon? These are typical questions which the model can help to answer. There are, however, at least three important prerequisites for its applicatIon to such problems. They are: f *. (a) Traincd personnel (unually national planner. from Planning, Education and other soctoral Miniotrlco concerned with tralning); (b) Maintenance of an up-to-date data bane; * Cc) Good coordination and common undarstanding between the miniotrica/ agencics concerned. Mne lart is perhanpa the moat Important. The recommendations flowing from the simulation of plans and policy measurco should lead to appropriata action to modify programs, re-direct flown, change adliaitracive regulations, etc. The model Is oly a tool, a meana to thos anda. .L XUdd. lat and North Africa Region.  -4 S~~~~~fs 4 US