India - Situation and prospects of the economy : a medium-term perspective (Vol. 1 of 3) : Executive Summary

Report No. 4g62-IN Situation and Prospects of the Indian Economy-A Medium Term Perspective On Three Volumes) Volume 1: Executive Summary April 16, 1984 South Asia Programs India Division FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Docufent of the VVorld Bank. This document has a restriced distibution and may be used by reapients only in the. performance of their official duties. its contents may not oterwise - be disdosed without ~Mxd Bank authorization.  CURRENCY AND OTHER EQUIVALENTS Currency Prior to June 6, 1966: US$1.00 = Rs 4.7619 Rs 1.00 = US$0.21 From June 6, 1966 to mid-December 1971: US$1.00 = Rs 7.50 Rs 1.00 = US$0.13333 Mid-December 1971 to end-June 1972: US$1.00 = Rs 7.27927 Rs 1.00 - US$0.1374 After end-June 1972: floating rate Rate end-March 1984: US$1.00 = Rs 10.707 Rs 1.00 = US$0.0934 Rupee values have been converted into dollars by using the prevailing exchange rates indicated above up to 1970/71. For subsequent years the folloving average rates in rupees per US dollar have been used: 1971/72 : 7.444 1975/76 : 8.653 1979/80 : 8.076 1972/73 : 7.706 1976177 : 8.939 1980/81 7.893 1973/74 : 7.791 1977178 : 8.563 1981/82 : 8.929 1974/75 : 7.976 1978/79 : 8.206 1982/83 9.628 Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics (IFS), line 'rf." In this report an estimate of 10.2 Rupees per US Dollar was used for 1983/84. The rate subsequently published in IFS is 10.312. Weights Unless otherwise specified all weight measures are metric. Years The Indian fiscal year runs from April 1 through March 31.  FOR OFCIL USE ONLY TITLE : SITUATION AND PROSPECTS OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY - A MEDIUM TERM PERSPECTIVE VOLUME I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY COUNTRY : INDIA REGION SOUTH ASIA SECTOR COUNTRY ECONOMIC REPORT TYPE CLASSIF NMWYY LANGUAGE 4962-IN CEM Restricted 04/84 English PUBDATE 8404 ABSTRACT This report updates the economic situation and prospects of India through Indian fiscal year 1983/84. The report consists of three volumes: Volume I containing the Executive Sumsary, Volume II containing the main body of the report and Volume III, the Statistical Appendix. The report reviews Current Developments, Domestic and External Resources (Chapters 2 and 3), Population and Poverty Issues (Chapters 4 and 5), and Medium Term Investment Issues in agriculture, human resources, energy, transportation, urban infrastructure and industry (Chapters 6-11). IThis document ha a sticted disibution and may be used by ripints only in the prformac of thei officia duts Its contents may not oterwise be disclosedwitout WordDatnk authorizatn  Acknowled2ement This report was prepared in New Delhi by members of the World Bank Resident Mission in India aad of the India Division at the Bank head- quarters under the general guidance of E. Bevan Waide (Resident Mission Chief) and leadership of Roger W. Grave (Acting Principal Economist). Contributors to the report included Leslie Abbie, Zafer Ecevit, Christopher L. Hall, John R. Hansen, James Q. Harrison, Felipe Morris, Kiem R. Phan, Armando Pinell-Siles and James 0. Wright. Sunanda Sengupta and V.J. Ravishankar contributed to Chapter 1. Pravin Visaria contributed to Chapter 4. V.J. Ravishankar, P. Rajagopalan and L.K. Raut provided statistical and general research support. Willem C.F. Bussink (Principal Economist) joined the Resident Mission late in the process of preparing this report and contributed to its review.  SITUATION AND PROSPECTS OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY - A MEDIUM TERM PERSPECTIVE VOLUME I: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Table of Contents PaLe Basic Data ................ *..*.**.. *********.***** *................ i A. Recent Developments in the Indian Economy ....................... 1 B. Recent Trends in Investment and saviugs ......................... 3 C. Resource Prospects for the Future ............................... 6 D. Balance of Payments Prospects . ... ....e.. . e............ ....... .... 8 E. Population Trends and Implications .............................. 12 F. Poverty and its Alleviation ..... ....... ............... .. .. ...... 14 G. Medium-Term Investment Issues in Key Sectors .................... 19  -i- INDTA - SOCIL INDICATORS DATA SHEET INDIA REFERENCE GROUPS (IEIGTED AVERACES) I. HOST (HOST RECENT ESTIMATE) /b obRECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOME 1960/- 970 ESTIMATE- ASIA 6 PACIFIC ASIA & PACIFIC ARE (THOUSD SQ. K) TOTAL 3287.6 3287.6 3287.6 AGRICULTURAL 1760.7 1780.5 1811.3 CNP PER CAPITA (US$) 70.0 100.0 260.0 276.7 1028.6 nr CnSmPrIO mR CAPITA (KILOQtS OF COAL EQUIVALENT) 114.0 165.0 210.0 398.4 792.8 POPLATIN AD VIDAL STATISTICS POPULATION NID-YEAR (THOUSANDS) 434850.0 547569.0 690183.0 URBAN POPULATION (2 OF TOTAL)- 18.0 19.8 23.7 21.5 32.9 POPULATION PRMOECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (MILL) 1001.3 STATIONARY POPULATION (MILL) 1838.3 YEAR STATIONARY POP. REACHED 2140 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KM. 132.3 166.6 205.3 161.7 260.7 PER SQ. KM. ACRI. LAND 247.0 307.5 372.7 363.1 1696.5 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (2) 0-14 YRS 40.9 42.7 39.7 36.6 39.4 15-64 YRS 54.5 54.2 57.2 59.2 57.2 65 AND ABOVE 4.6 3.1 3.0 4.2 3.3 POPULATION OROWTH RATE (2) TOTAL 1.8 2.3 2.1 1.9 2.3 URBAN 2.5 3.3 3.7 4.0 3.9 CUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUS) 43.7 40.0 35.4 29.3 31.3 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUS) 21.8 16.7 13.3 10.9 9.6 CROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.0 2.0 FAMILY PLANNING ACCEFTORS, ANNUAL (THOUS) 64.0 3782.0 6826.0 USERS (Z OF HARRIED WOMEN) .. 12.0 23.0 48.1 46.6 O SDD AM NUTRITO INDEX OF FOOD MROD. PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 98.0 102.0 107.0 111.4 125.2 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (Z OF REQUIREUENTS) 96.0 90.0 87.0 98.1 114.2 PROTEINS (CRAES PER DAY) 54.0 50.0 47.0 56.7 57.9 OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 17.D 15.0 13.0/c 13.9 14.1 CHILD (AGES 1-4) DEATH RATE 26.2 20.7 17.0 12.2 7.6 NELIE LIFE EXPECT. AT BIRTH (YEARS) 43.2 48.1 52.2 59.6 60.2 INFANT HORT. RATE (PER THOUS) 165.0 139.0 121.2 96.6 68.1 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (ZPOP) TOTAL .. 17.0 33.0/d 32.9 37.1 URBAN .. 60.0 83.07-d 70.8 54.8 RURAL .. 6.0 20.07r 22.2 26.4 ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (Z OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 18.0 20.0/e 18.1 41.4 IRBAN .. 85.0 87.0d7 72.7 47.5 RURAL *- 1.0 2.07; 4.7 33.4 POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 4850.0 4890.0 3640.0/f 3506.0 7771.9 POP. ?ER NURSING PERSON 10980.04 8300.0 538.0 4797.9 2462.6 POP. PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 2180.0 1650.0 1310.0/d 1100.6 1047.2 URBAN .. .. 370.Od 298.4 651.1 RURAL .. .. 10410.07o 5941.6 2591.9 ADMTSSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. .. .. 27.0 AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD TOTAL 5.2 5.6 5.2/e .. .. URBAN 5.2 5.6 4.8Te RURAL 52 5.6 5.3 AVERAGE NO. OF PERSONS/ROOM TOTAL 2.6 2.8 URBAN 2.6 2.8 RURLI 2.6 2.8 ACCESS TO ELECT. (C OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. URBAN .. .. RURAL .. .. BEST wOPY AVAUEIU  -ii- INDIA -SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET INDIA REFERENCE ROVPS (WEIGHTED AVERACUS) /- MOST (HOST RECENT ESTIMATE) /b RECENT LOW INCOME MIDDLE INCOE 1601 1970/L ESTIMAT4bL ASIA A PACIFIC ASIA A PACIFIC ADJUSTED ENROLMENT RATIOS PR1IIAM: TOTAL 61.0 73.0 76.0/f 96.1 101.2 KALE JO.O 90.0 90.07F 107.8 106.0 FELE 60.0 56.0 61.077 92.9 97.5 SECONDARY: TOTAL 20.0 26.0 28.0/f 30.2 44.9 MALE 30.0 36.0 31.07f 37.3 50.0 FEtALE 10.0 15.0 18.077 22.2 44.6 VOCATIONiAL (2 OF SECONDARY) 2.8 1.0 0.7/e 2.3 18.5 PUPL-TEACNER RATIO PRIKARY 46.0 41.0 43.0/f 34.4 32.7 SECONDARY 16.0 21.0 .. 18.4 23.4 ADULT LITERACY RATE (2) 27.8 33.4 36.0 53.5 72.9 coawf_r i PASSENCER CARS/THOUSAND POP 0.6 1.1 1.3/f 1.6 9.7 RADIO RECEIVERS/THOUSAND POP 4.9 21.5 44.4 96.8 113.7 TV RECZIVERS/THOUSAND POP 0.0 0.0 1.7 9.9 50.1 NEWSPAPER C-DAILY GENERAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION 10.6 16.2 19.7 16.4 54.0 CINEMA ANUAL ATTENDANCE/CAPITA 3.2 4.1 3.7/e 3.6 3.4 LAN FORCE TOTAL LABOR FORCE (THOUS) 185951.0 219194.0 27l179.0 PEIALE (PERCENT) 30.7 32.5 31.8 33.3 33.6 AGCICULTURE (PERCENT) 74.0 74.0 69.3 69.0 50.9 IDUSTRY (PERCENT) 11.0 11.0 13.2 15.8 19.2 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 42.8 40.0 39.3 42.5 38.6 KALE 57.0 52.4 51.9 54.4 50.7 FE4ALF 27.3 26.9 25.9 29.8 26.6 ECONOHIC DEPENDENCY RATIO 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 INCOSM DISBRIDUrIOU PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCOME RECEIVED BY HIlHESr 5X OF HOUSEHOLDS 26.7 26.3/h 22.2/e 16.5 22.2 HIGHEST 20S OF HOUSEHOLUS 51.7 48.97h 49.47; 43.5 48.0 LOWEST 201 OF HOUSEhOLDS 4.1 6.17; 7.0Te 6.9 6.4 LOIET 402 OF HOUSEHOLDS 13.6 17.27; 16.27; 17.5 15.5 OTE TAI CT GOUPS ESTIMATED ABSMLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 132.0 133.9 194.5 RURAL .. .. 114.0 111.6 155.0 ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (USS PM CAPITA) URIAN .. .. .. .. 178.0 RURAL .. .. .. .. 164.8 ESTIMTES POP. BELOW AISOLUYE POVERtY INCOME LEVEL (Z) URBAN .. .. 40.3 43.8 24.4 RURAL .. .. 50.7 51.7 41.1 rNO AVAILABLE NOT APPLICAILE NO TE S - Ia The group verages for eacb iodiccaor are populaetio-weighted arithmetic means. Coverage of countries aeong the indicators depends on availability of data and is not unufora. /b Unless otherwise noted. -Data for 1960" refer to any year between 1959 end 1961; -Data for 1970" between 1969 end 1971; and data for "Moat Recent Estimate" between 1979 and 1981. Ic 1977; /d 1976; le 1975; If 1978; I 1962; lb 1964-65. may 1983 BEST COPY AVAILABLE  ciii- 1537T5O Or ItCIAL IfDICdrlff omptrblw becam of the tack of otamlordicsd dofttl-o .ml CIma,pt. wod by 4ff.Eroot -cm.otyt to t11tlacio tic da.W. Tb. data cr. -noticteo wooEd to domoribo wdet of moitoRco. Iihtrate tro.,. mod ohorotorle octet. -J..dl 41ffoCooco Wot-mwcsit lb. rofocm- grow. an (I) thc one --ctry ra-p of tic owijot -woto, a (23 a coCety croc, cub -Moti b.tgioaook .i tic tic Cowottry arop of tcb swijot taotry (.-ot fo- 9ab I--ta oil Ott op.r.y.aroop Sam" lmWddi too- lorth Africa and Middle toot" to tCh--n beans. my Otrogo eca saa arfioitom.i. In tCh. a'eo gopdt tich wrow ar p`ymlaitn Leightsi cithatlc one for each 1oldotor an ho only obo.. ejrItty Wr tcb conoitea So SrIX be. dots for tcc ludittoo. tint tCh -coag of towtcto toos tic Imlooodpowd no tic aetIltbtl Imy .f data ad (too efr -t.ni. tot ho aerttad In rotatin ono0sc of c- indictor to anthr. V.om aecroge or mty nefot I.cOmolr the colt, of me- dtcra. I .-I-gf tic a-tiry as tefironr repo.. Mat (tCesod nq.ic.l PoIoSomfsoct lcpwlattom ".dln.S by combe of preoiclog rYJIt - mitt emrfac a arscopilo a arAan totoo t-st: 391. fl ljTT Tcoamdcal o-Ic at elnorolity jane. an% d 591 data. PmnottC= jr Mact toPre lpwlstIot di1.d by membr of pytocitfao %re,trl- ucftlet of ogitlartar adtoproly or smraotly ciact os. 2odwoto cooo,nIct..t eye. prcetiejl fretib ad or C= Poetwo. -rbut an htocet odo.mct Ito foIow 59*. arot,5 ...ii tarta. 971) ad 39W data. "on,'Arto cccPl Cmptfhd-ttl icbi. ad rot - Popotj- o (total. C19 PR CIT C"l)- tap pr -aptrm ocsotmamcrrn cob l r .. ecalblo is publt. an p.1loata esro and optliedboptat1 ad ca .tot. by oor-tm ethad a World heck AlIA. (t9i9-I %amimt rwicbIttlcttoo Womot.- Ioptitim ese mstbf shms. tootystffs lMOe 1950. aol ItS1 data, by at tLa. me p5".ltsn. FoAtbtIsh-ooom pr-ctdlsg prIelpolly comtedlol toroacmcotinfde tel. ictpittm. b-wooto, Intutd health as MR"ntcyo)ssmopyia MR CAPITA- tcoot .P.ro to--wptlo of escta e-la-aor al~rot ty miofrrd by a puys.yatl cbt by a wdice prIa-y oc.,x u- ndsimt.poorair, aceat oon bydro. enter ...otoUte. ooc-.doto ott.) thick offr im-potnt- a.ccendtoo ad and motbecet ntccly mbtcrmm of Yoat oqofooLot p.r capital weld. a IStltod rooo of mndtcst fotttooIr iatlotta p_ ff 39*.190. .tt,ad ills) date. orb.hasitt Imotodo WHO. prtotipaflg.-ra hpitats, and roro popLtesyOs ass. ersj. nSnutMcS tp-molafcd hojiltim at. 1b1tods cmty tsr totl. totl rnolcta Mi-ter SL. -nd3 W A. of J0y17 1~ 9&0. 3973. ad 1901 Iomtm c onia a oa ocba of L.toeo to or tab-tge data. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~fitt. lepttalettntd bytcnao f bed.. titanymolaba prcol f tut ai. of orbeo to total popoflsot dlfornt ofmitceoy irac roa y aff-et cpaeiltofdais SfltSIsC ..eg -nwortom: (9*0. 3930. a.d 19*3 Imim. Aornn 1m'ofliahod(anenybsac)-tta.w s,adcr 30tijjtjij~ji(~ toGMn popo-tec- projmttoto -t bead no 3910 a tetr maim onto. A boerdo ortd- m rny cot ha mleds to tiiJijiitjiyagoendcooandtheir ertaIlty oi f.rtitiythe oW-osld for otelimilc- porpma. r ZV. rjItin Ioonty foruLtelty -ca.. Ctoprlo ofirobrgeohro orwtpt000-tt.oho,cdryl org -e .-Jsatcae its. auiooat bIrth fotracis cith n-try'm pot Pfpreoprct metoi n oo Copd teniawa .opit. imow ILani ad tacto 1Sffo onpact-c olsilllog at 57.) dctL Mg.. tooJp.ftlony. -imitingo tLold. wc-oon tv_trec ad Y-ro Tho paractorm for Icrilllty rato ate ic. tiro t.n.. amnnptd pact.. ae.mdog doeio In L.ortaltoy acedmgf to See tonl and rot famIly rooi lrrrt W nocif domillI1n - oa.obw.. oa ooitia of wortllt, .ao .fcrilltp' trade fwr Prejntoe porpom. If total0 tba, -ad rentl -SeniLe. epmttteoP. mine, tic birth rta to cq.cL to tic datb at., ad ate tic ago f115C1fsl atro-tar rcooia -t"La. 7ml. L. -orhind only f tot fetIlity ratee K.,I dmctle - to. ro,L-loo booS of ..lt sot Cep adtite 001. than -~ ltiWbo- tatljmaf an fmelc - Cross ttal. ..I. ad font. oarS oosortb of coe rcpiaon Itoolf ecctly. 100 lster t.rotinomi of el age t the Primacy Iwno am po`rl`ga. of ropottno pop.lIlmo- ota -o omibamood c tic halo of tc. pIojotod circo-5rioary nctg.PopUtltit.a ooeotly Imodo echildren Igo 0-li otico of tic poplator..i tic y-,cr R 353, A tic rota of dortia of lare bet adjatod for dff.faao fogthn of primary odmtotbo f-r frt. ity ot to roicomt oo. Cosariwo uctt m..o--Ia dw-,itl. -nrol-Mt -V oeoo WU po.C-Co ba-tioaomo.tatba Ic rneeic - lb. yaer then otottoasr o . of DWpIte ay bic or oA.o tic my flote hCbwl ago. p.plsimmm till ho matn. oodrymdal-ttl.Caoed ae - apote a shone3 enodry Pooaln not odiato tqscC P---otIOt7c of op,road priamy 1ootrsccle lor~. o. Mi-pet ppittbeP., eqero kiometor 1300 betrco) of prelde go-ro. -oco-et or-- tob rla.l.mg imgrtymi-m for II o61 9e. 1979, ad JIM doA.. ptptle amsilfy of 12 to 17 ins.- of O. cotfmpmndon toot-, wen Pot n. a. ettmttra)San - Caopmfdamte for agttl.ttta o IaLy ctfodod. omIyl 59f. 19WO a-d 3950 data. foabc oohctCoroto oodr) - f tionl totef Al.lrtM S-tntr fscrcao I_ CIlSdcoo (0-54. ye:.). -rkiog-ag CI- Icn.tcsio,Ifata.a te ro So poroto taood 44-joarot a - otto (*5 snar ad ne) so. ron. o at oldpoa only o wdptnn femdt nittom ycar sopofat9boo Ott19-O. 19040ot. adr1970.83. Lopondimg laneto imooltle ront Sat Comramts- mta -hoeSgrek atom of crics14 Soft lieaeccVatnl-S.trt dlm(mt tisLa otis.) positlo for 190.0 11 -iD, cod 3970-OS. a portost. cftotlMl ouainqo.iioaaday erode flcti Sat (scramd smock Indhrthe prc thinoad of mid- Crab Ueath ram ectinod) - rmc ah o thasond of aild-p.-y Pt-omao.rtac: nrtoon2coahc)-Poocyamrpt poptobe InO.lYia an 10Zdat. tt etl. lndho ot iu pfel -ld h a.teiomca -ean a Deca Saotutilm Ots - O-.,o' twbr ofdegltoro a m 'li bear in shi7 nsilot l.i i01o e ccP-rlnd if ale apcareP---Lano.tft el aeooo(o bao reatn t7Poc- of c rolnoc forrfi fertIlity rein; n-sl fn-ca croa dlot 1110, 397O. ad breadomat toattlpbi o iaada mmabm emn 1985. licond realtor SmSari.a to nert.d.o roaftm-iro . S coil. roan Plomim-orcttos. oco Ct.eo, Soo ao of acoto sl -a im of foi aafr .. er ey .1 ha teoporal. mIsc eni f_atin Pl-o"Lot I of_- -Wrd o mI-Preteof norrimI snoa .55cpr ien fpplce: eotdoa -It-.oen TV coceoo a. a l dhern j 3544 -cnr.st.e ltl.n detanIai eccott- c an In - pn roneinmlnof TV toa o isftori. all orred moc ..mor qa race. j2p~i.eal. ocoasadreln S - Io tha aoorag Solo,or crd IciafrtSa corCapta fS*-f!SiiO . lSec f pe royto rbltrii.o looed ptmecl. t rt-rdlo moral enm. i 1.toamdawo a.lmat ctd.-tot 0 al lc aciuian.lrcfllm.mcodo en a.d to be doIty" If It appoa atit 1 far ttac o -oo. fa.d and te ocdr orhcm Casetifa roto planr condo (.X Clomn Asnel Altnde aci em loa - sand Ot t"e "hlo of ..oroe ectod r oetr) k9cih a WIWdIt cr talat -nItt-n. to... ti.teii aId dosttt b ea.IntLItus edolente to drOn-to nlnma an act fana baat eIdmd). Atarat.i prtdnctln of -ht -toety I. wille _it.. beadmm aIle anrastpVIM-er prte- 010Mm: 19143 970, and 1901 tottolt.acolr n calrie toocomiof nooiceati .C-ooadfo Y1r clo te Cobnond) - Zan-,.todd ef t.0 p.,IhChJ, lctlndmg Cre acosy Iqlaoio"tto upi ntat otoac . alatyfra sscpae I0M morldlos h.-fom ccmm otc., cartIn day. Atia.lbla eppliom cooprb belle pfodnile opco n p.ottwooJeicot Sf mih S or- tui-nettoar o ap-to. and obene in stork. Not oepptio -olInd aobei Peal, e.d.. otpoal 0. 3970 end lest dat. qwmlla od In tad ptocoabo. cccl Iee tn Itayteta.toic rost-en. SabIn forto , pm.rcmtag of tota abew fac.. mcqnlrneoc -C.c .etieta by FAD besel - phytloloi. sL most for --mIa I.-tt3jjm ao foei ocl oetry. batIg ad ottlntty and 3.aaitk coold-rIm .ntteo t.."oopt-ta body ogim ichm0. 00.-ottm .g of Ctota lAor focc-; 39*, t975 and 1951 dat.. ago an -o dtntrlb.tla of p.pcltboo. and otbaing 30 p.ceot fmr womb fle.ioen)-Sber fore In m.min. ..tcctrtboL otfooo Itbcsollat 19h-fl 390adlf-ae i lilt me ee.a a- P-toteg of totl faint forte 1910. Potrait mcoe o motto(can no dn) - Psto oetmm pn e-Pito 3970 and 39113 data. god spply c- ten pt day. on ocplr mtfoo In dofimed to'to.Pt"tirctc oe(att .ttl ae dfn.-Ptli ico -omrencfriletofliaetoo by USDA pycede for cii.1ictyrt.cceo,we .1 o,a nlalbrfc -laea. of ti t. ofttlprotol poe dayan 20o goo of ate1 -apoomsa of x. totl, .t ad fa. opulatte of alt ooo caPootolnl polo. ProIcl. of firt. 10 graa mbmld he amidt po-t-eo Tbon tI), 1970. andIPS data. Th.-e ar bemnd -o 15W` potLolp.tia rota m-.dd eraSec than lic of7ga of total peetoi c- 21 goo re-tflotIn ao-.r mtrotn- of Lbs VP.pettt. ad long tic trend. a of owle p-tnal -w an onrgo for the wold4 epco bly FAD In tic ran cotea an f to ealott ano 151101 OctLfd F foon-y; 19b1-65. 1970 and 1980 dat. frOtmoCe esco tatlo - Sail. of pmpl.slo odor I) a DI ad goc to Pot capIta ot edl o elo f 1rn te ad sLor- - Ptntlo apply of fadl.tl lbrfr. d.rtnmd f r soECo en ...i a o a;I `9 170 ad 1921 CidCo1-63 ot Sato (noP-.ooad - dom-S loath p.r tihcoad inPoclco. rot toon Ibeth 1. etmi cod kg05 - Emaln by ciclect I agogrp 1-4 0,t hlrnI 1*1 otn. trap: fw woo dn.Spimg p.J-t rlbCht 20 pmin. P-m--- EGo puranMaid Poores AID pmco o cnoledata d-artd rre lhf. tblam:. 3990. tI d51170- das.9eoool U17tooee at mit (orae - -rt iIr of yeeof1f.rccmn -Iwo collelng-M aelot r nr appraIet n-ao of p.mi tait ad 01 itt; 1*0.117 an 191 dta.obeld e isorMotd oti M e1 n Amlacb oowiiot. 1- -1 kate of Safe hai- (-".os of ~moaletaJ-idl om. ma 1 -1 ctrltiowlty odoat dci plc enootLa1 ot-foed roqtroot isr n-he .f P-opi. sotol. echo. and recall cIsS11 toaooobl acmi to nfe tfferdehi.. wotoc anopy tloctSeo treted onfac 00r W trotdSt oStd bI . - noIiaPninIccso K ccpt)-tiea aa - eaa ntod trntheibtfra protemod bharoso. mprlscge a beelreaIn peon noo ton Ina-io 5aoe r capita catamydli acptnngoo tholr eep.tt- mepopoItott. ft en yr--Ie I-o mf the oowotyy. tics. tona in darLa frai tCh reeli. mebt ore e pobl: fateutat or L.tnpot 1mcao en -nc ico 200- -mr teat cith sliwtamt for htghar oat f lining to wob scoot hewam Z. OM t Ie aroo --ocoI. aeom e.d Soply theL t he - ismofo tadrrl-Preto ..ala mSma ea).o c lo -1ot- of the eenbld da not h to apes a dlcprportloot P.r" ff acomto "ocoot ftbmn.elb -Kcc . o ntte)- oa.n n am ntd ticaleef aCl dIspomo. witb or oiibm trat-ont. of towlto fetalI Deco Iloiw bomo ootootc ad et.-n.o hI aco -t-he ylm cr the on of Pit ICw.oomc bA-yoio ad projattla Sptn prlmlo ad Olcfa mealtla.Fy lit RESTCOPY AVAILABLE  -iv- ECONOIIC DEVELOPMENT DATA CNP PEI CAPITA IN 1981 US$260 *1 CROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN 1902/83 bh ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (2, Conetant Price.) c/ 1955156-1959/60 1960/61-1964/65 1965/6E-1969/70 1970/71-1974175 3975/76-1979/Bu USS BIn. 2 CDOP t Market Prices 170.74 100.0 3.7 3.6 3.7 2.9 4.1 Gross Domstic Investment 41.99 24.6 Gross National Saving 38.12 22.3 Current Account Balance - 3.87 - 2.3 OUTPUT. LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1981 Value added (at factor coat) Labor Farce it V.A. Per Worker USS Bin. z Nil. 2 IISS 2 of Natienal Avare Agriculture 51.7 35.1 172.7 70.6 299 50 Industry 35.2 23.9 31.6 12.9 1114 185 Services 60.6 41.0 40.3 16.5 1504 249 Total/Avrage 170l5 100.0 244.6 100 0 603 100 WVERIHENT FINANCE General Covernsent et Central Government Rs. Bln. Z of CDP Rs. Bin. Z of CDP 1982/83 19N2N13 197ng79-3982t83 1982/N3 1982t83 t978/79-1982/83 Current Receipts 333.34 20.3 19.5 175.61 10.7 10.5 Current Expenditurea 340.09 20.7 19.0 188.59 11.5 10.B Current Surplus/Deficit - 6.75 - 0.4 0.5 - 12.98 - 0.8 - 0.4 Capital Expenditures f/ 131.28 8.0 8.1 95.13 5.8 5.7 External Assistance (net) d/ 19.30 1.2 1.0 MNE?, CREDIT AND PRICES 1970/71 1975/76 1977/78 1978179 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 February 1983 Februsry 1984 (Rs Billion outatanding at end of period) Money end Quai Money 109.8 224.8 329.1 401.1 472.3 555.5 624.9 723.8 711.7 845.7 Bank Credit to Covorement (not) 54.6 106.3 137.3 159.3 200.1 257.2 309.1 352.4 353.5 406.6 Bank Credit to Comercial Sector 64.6 156.2 212.2 255.3 310.1 363.5 430.5 504.5 487.7 576.4 (Percentage or Index Numbers) Apr-Feb 1982/83 Apr-Feb 1983/U4 Honey and Quasi Money as a 2 of GDP 27.3 30.3 36.7 41.1 44.1 43.6 42.0 44.0 Wholeale Price Index (1970/71 - 100) 100.0 173.0 185.8 IB5.8 217.6 257.3 281.4 288.6 288.1 314.8 Annual percentage changes in: Wholesale Price Index 7.7 -1.1 5.2 - 17.1 18.2 9.4 2.6 2.3 9.3 bank Credit tn Covernnent (net) 15.0 22.7 16.3 16.0 25.6 28.5 20.2 14.0 21.0 j/ 18.9 ht Bank Credit to Commercial Sector 19.4 22.7 12.6 20.2 21.5 17.2 18.4 17.2 15.5 1/ 17.9 hI */ The per capita GNP estimate is et mrket prices. using World Bank Atlas methodology. base period 1979-1981. All other conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchage rate prevailing during the period coverd. bl Quick Estimates. Central Statistical Organization. rl Caputed from trend line of CNP at factor cost sries, including one observation before first year and one observation after last year of liated period. d/ Vorld Bank estimtes of nt disburcesent of concessional aid and IBRD. et Transfers between Centre and States have been netted out. ?i All loans and advances to third psrties have been netted out. li Percentage change from end-March 1982 to end-Februnry 1983. h/ Percentage change from end-Mrch 1983 to and-February 1984. it Total Labor Force and percentage breakdown from 2981 Cenous. Excludes data for Assam. BEST COPY AVLABLE  BALANCE OF PAYMEN 190181 19dl/B2 1952/8333 i93i841/ auCKAmnDISn WSORTS (AVERACZ 1979180-19u2/B3) a/ CUS$ NMI.) US$ MIR. Z Exports of Goode i/ 8.50 63.519 8.001 8.466 Engineering ;oos r/ 980 12 Imports of Good. j/ -16,204 -15500 -14,249 -14.412 Tea 455 6 Trad Balance - 7.700 - 6.9B1 - 1.248 - 5.946 Cmes 779 9 MrPS (net) 1.365 974 940 856 Clothing 573 7 Leather and Lsathmr Products 480 6 Resource Balance - 6.335 - 6,007 - 5.308 5.090 Jute Manufactures 333 4 ILron ore 310 5 Interest Income (nt) k/ 600 286 - 415 - 648 Cotton Textiles 328 S Net Trnsfers I/ 2.771 2.318 31549 1.790 Susar 86 1 Others 3.B49 46 Balance on Current Account - 2.964 - 3,403 - 3.874 - 3.948 Official Loan. 4 Granta Total 8.243 100 Crlam Disburaents 2.651 2.570 3.066 3.441 TENlRlL DEBT. MARCH 31. 1983 AaorLizstion - - 700 - 674 - 701 - 783 USS billion Transaction with IN? (net) 1.035 690 1.9B0 1.295 Outstanding and Disbursed 19.6 All Other ltea 0/ - 367 - 1.581 12 531 Undiebur ed 11.1 Outstanding including Undiebursed 30.7 Increase in Reerve C -) 345 2.398 - 503 - 536 Gross Raserves (mod ye r) p 6.859 4.461 4.964 5.500 DEBT SERVICE ItATIO FOR 1982/83 j1 n/ 10.1 per cant Not Rsemrve (sod yer) 6.532 3.497 2.088 1.449 IBIID/IDA LEIlINr. MAICM 31. 1984 j/ Pusi and Blalted Maetrials USS million Imports (Petroleum) j/ 6.672 5.590 4,613 3.395 IBID IDA Outst Ading sod Dlibursed 1 .826 7.924 Undisbursed 2.0BI 4&331 Outstanding including Undisbursed 3.907 12.255 RATE OF EXCNAWSE June 1966 to mid-DeemAaber 1971 US$1.00 - Re 7.50 Ia 1.00 - US50.13333 Mid-December 1971 to end-June 1972 USs1.00 - RB 7.27927 Ia 1.00 - US$0. 137376 After and-June 1972 Floating Beta Spot Rate end-March 1983 US$1.00 - Re 10.0301 Ra 1.00 - USS0.0997 Spot Rate nd-March 1984 USS1.00 - RB 10.7181 Re 1.00 - US$0.0933 1/ Estimated k/ Figures givea cover a11 investen_t incn_ (nt). Major paymnte are intereat on foreign lans sod charges paid to MIM. and ajor receipts is interest earned on foreign *stn . I Figures Riven iclude workers' remittances but exclude official grant aseistance which is included within official loas and grants. and non-resident deposits which are included within all other items. !7 Exclude net us of IMF credit. ni Amortization and interest paymnts on foreign loans a a percentage of total current receipts. 0/ Includes exchange rate sdjustment to the valuation of resrves and financnLg of ilmbalnces in rupee trads.