Zambia - Agricultural research and extension review

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL LSIE ONLY Report No. 4591-ZA ZAMBIA AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND EXTENSION REVIEW November 29, 1983 The World Bank Regional Mission in Eastern Africa This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRI:NCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Zambian Kwacha 1975 K 1.00 = SDR 1.33 = US$ 1.55 1976-77 K 1.00 = SDR 1.08 = US$ 1.33 1978-82 K 1.00 = SDR 0.97 = US$ 1.20 1983 K 1.00 = SDR 0.78 = US$ 0.83 Until July 1983 the Kwacha was officially pegged to the SDR. The US Dollar equivalents shown above correspond to changes in the official value of the Kwacha during this period. In July 1983 the official value of the Kwacha was redefined in terms of a floating basket of currencies. As of October 1983, the rate was approximately K 1.00 = US$0.71 (or US$1.00 K 1.40). WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres 1 millimeter (mm) = 0.039 inches 1 meter (m) = 1.09 yards i square meter (m2) = 10.76 square feet 1 cubic meter (m3) = 1.31 cubic yards 1 kilometer (km) = 0.62 miles 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.205 pounds 1 metric ton (ton) = 2,205 pounds GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS AA Agricultural Assistant AD Agricultural Demonstrator AFC Agricultural Finance Company AO Agricultural Officer ARPT Adaptive Research Planning Team AS Agricultural Supervisor CARO Chief Agricultural Research Officer CAS Chief Agricultural Supervisor CCS Cooperative Credit Scheme CD Commodity Demonstrator CDA Cattle Development Area CF Contact Farmer CFC Cattle Finance Company CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research CIMMYT International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center CIP International Potato Center CRT Commodity Research Team CSB Cold Storage Board CSRT Commodity and Specialist Research Team DAO District Agricultural Officer DBZ Development Bank of Zambia DOA Department of Agriculture (MAWD) DPB Dairy Produce Board DVTCS Department of Veterinary and Tsetse Control Services EEC European Economic Community FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation (U.N.) FI Farm Institute FTC Farmer Training Center GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product GRZ Government of the Republic of Zambia HEO Home Economics Officer IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICRISAT International Crops Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics IDA International Development Association IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IITA International Institute of Tropical Agriculture IMF International Monetary Fund IRDP Integrated Rural Development Program IRRI International Rice Research Institute LINTCO Lint Company of Zambia MAWD Ministry of Agriculture and Water Development M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NAMBOARD National Agricultural Marketing Board NCDP National Commission for Development Planning NCSR National Council for Scientific Research NORAD Norwegian Agency for International Development NRDC National Resources Development College PAO Provincial Agricultural Officer PAS Principal Agricultural Supervisor PCU Provincial Cooperative Union This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  ABBREVIATIONS (Continued) PEXCO Provincial Experiment Committee SAA Senior Agricultural Assistant SADCC Southern African Development Coordination Conference SIDA Swedish International Development Agency SMS Subject Matter Specialist SRT Specialist Research Team TBZ Tobacco Board of Zambia T&V Training and Visit (extension system) UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNIP United National Independence Party UNZA University of Zambia USAID United States Agency for International Development ZADB Zambia Agricultural Development Bank ZAMHORT Zambia Horticultural Products ZAMSEED Zambia Seed Company ZSIC Zambia State Insurance Corporation  ZAMBIA AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND EXTENSION REVIEW Table of Contents Page No Preface i Summary and Conclusions ii I. BACKGROUND A. General .1 B. Ecology, Land Tenure and Farming Systems. 2 C. Agricultural Development. 6 D. Agricultural Institutions and Services .11 E. Previous World Bank Involvement .17 II. AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH A. General .18 B. Research Organization .19 C. Research Planning and Review .20 D. Funding for Research .23 E. Research Focus and Programs .24 F. Issues and Constraints .38 III. AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION A. General .44 B. Subsector Organization .45 C. The Administrative Environment .47 D. Extension Training .48 E. Funding for Extension .50 F. Extension Themes and Messages .51 G. Donor Involvement .57 H. Issues and Constraints .61 IV. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS A. General .67 B. Recommendations for Research .70 C. Recommendations for Extension .78 D.. Proposed Actions .91 APPENDICES 1,, Strategy Paper/Work Plan and Investment Program for Research and Extension: Terms of Reference.  CHARTS 1. Ministry of Agriculture and Water Development Organization Structure 2. Agricultural Research Facilities 3. Research Branch of DOA. Structure 1982 4. National Council for Scientific Research: Organizational Chart TABLES 1. Farm Units and Farm Population by Province and by Farm Type (1980). 2. Agricultural Practices and Yields. 3. Estimated Maize Production and Sales by Provinces. 4. Relative Importance of Crops and Livestock in the Provinces. 5. Marketed Production of Some Selected Crops. 6. Crop Producer Prices 1975/76 - 1983/84. 7. Research Staff and Expenditure at Research Establishments. 8. Capital Expenditure for Research Projects. 9. Capital and Recurrent Expenditures for Agricultural Research (current prices). 10. Capital and Recurrent Expenditures for Agricultural Research (constant 1980 prices). 11. Indices of MAWD's Average Salary and of Wholesale Prices. 12. Recurrent Departmental Charges (RDC) Index. 13. Expenditure for Research and Extension and its Relation to Agricultural GDP. 14. Extension Staff Positions in the Provinces (1982). 15. Agricultural Households, Administrative and Extension Organization and Staff Numbers in Extension Centers (1982). 16. Training of Agricultural Graduates, Diplomates and Certificate Holders (1981). 17. Capital and Recurrent Expenditure for Agricultural Extension (constant 1980 prices). 18. Capital and Recurrent Expenditure for Agricultural Extension (current prices). 19. Capital Expenditure for Extension and Land Use Projects carried out by the Department of Agriculture. 20. Capital Expenditure by MAWD Headquarters for Agricultural Development Projects. 21. Technical and Capital Assistance to Agricultural Research and Extension Services. MAPS IBRD 11542R Republic of Zambia : Population Distribution. IBRD 11631R Republic of Zambia : Ecological Zones and Traditional Agricultural Systems.  Preface This review was initiated following the Bank's agreement with the Government of Zambia in 1981 to carry out detailed studies on: (1) the planning capabilities of the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Development (MAWD); and (ii) the entire range of support services being provided by MAWD to the agricultural sector. The report on strengthening the Planning Division of MAWD was issued in December 1982. During a Bank mission to Zambia in December 1981, it was agreed with Government that the agricultural services review would be carried out through several separate studies, starting with a review of the research and extension subsectors to be followed later by reports on input supply, marketing and pricing. The research and extension review is particularly timely in view of the reorganization of structure and programs currently underway in both these subsectors as well as the contributions to research and extension staff and facilities already being partly financed by the Bank under the Eastern and Southern Province Agricultural Development Projects. This review is expected to set the framework for future Bank project assistance to the research and extension subsectors in Zambia. This report is based primarily on the findings of a Bank mission which visited Zambia in March-April 1982, comprising Messrs. E. Goetz and E. Boerema. The first draft of the report was issued in July 1982, reviewed internally by the Bank in September 1982, and its contents discussed informally with MAWD staff in Zambia in October 1982. Revised drafts of the report were again discussed with officials in MAWD, NCDP, NCSR, the Ministry of Finance and several donor agencies by follow-up missions to Zambia in February and August-September 1983 comprising Messrs. A. Zulfiqar and E. Boerema; Messrs. D.H. van der Sluijs and R. Ranasinghe participated in this final mission. The report was finalized by Mr. Zulfiqar with editorial support from Mr. M. O'Hara. It reflects the above discussions with various Zambian officials as well as comments received in May 1983 from several reviewers within the Bank, particularly Messrs. D.H. van der Sluijs and A. Spurling.  Ia  - ii - ZAMBIA AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND EXTENSION REVIEW Summary and Conclusions 1. The economy of Zambia is in transition. The mining sector, mainly copper mining, has traditionally dominated the economy and accounted for an overwhelming proportion of GDP and foreign exchange earnings. However, world copper prices have declined sharply in recent years and that sector now faces serious medium and long term problems. Since 1976 the economy has been in depression; per capita domestic income in 1980 was less than 50% of its 1965 level in real terms. Diversification of production is therefore a high national priority and the most promising avenue for achieving this is through agricultural development. 2. Although agriculture supports over 50 percent of Zambia's population, it accounts for only about 15 percent of GDP (1982). This is unusually low, particularly for a developing country. Government's aims for agriculture have been expressed in three National Development Plans. They include self-sufficiency in food crops, increased production of raw materials for agro-industry, import substitution and foreign exchange generation from increased production of cash crops, and the creation of employment opportunities in the rural areas. 3. The first two Plans failed to achieve their output targets, mainly due to institutional deficiencies. The Third Plan has invested largely in inefficient parastatals and heavily subsidized smallholder schemes which have limited impact. During the 1970s, production of most agricultural commodities either stagnated or declined, exports remained small in both absolute and relative terms, and food imports increased. Cumbersome credit procedures, late deliveries of inputs, and delays in marketing and crop payments remain major constraints in development of Zambia's agriculture. 4. In the past, support to agricultural production through research and extension has been less than satisfactory. During the colonial and immediate post- colonial era, research and extension efforts were almost exclusively directed to support for large scale European settler farmers along the line of rail. Livestock breeding and cultivation of "political" crops such as maize with high yield potential under good management were the focus of attention . Relatively few resources were directed to the African farmer who, typically, cultivated subsistence crops on poor soils under a system of shifting cultivation. 5. Arrangements for the provision of research and extension services are currently in a state of flux. The systems which have operated hitherto are being reorganized in an attempt to achieve a more adaptive and farmer- oriented approach which will benefit Zambia's 600,000 smallholder farming  - iii - families. The tools selected to achieve this shift in focus and activity on the research side are the multi-disciplinary Commodity and Specialist Research Teams and the area-based Adaptive Research Planning Teams which are now either just beginning operations or are still being established. In extension, a modified training and visit (T&V) system was introduced in 1978 on a limited scale: this involves a programmed approach based on regular farm visits by trained staff, delivering key topical messages to carefully selected contact farmers. It is anticipated that the new research and extension systems will provide the much needed feedback between farmers and researchers through extension. This linkage has been seriously lacking to date. Only about 5% of all smallholders are presently reached by extension services. 6. For the new approaches to be successfully implemented, a number of constraints will have to be addressed. The most notable of these concern funding, staff availability, training and conditions of service, management and institutional problems, and technical issues. 7. While capital allocations to agriculture have been increased in the successive National Plans, the amounts allocated for recurrent expenditures have steadily declined in real terms. Furthermore, the composition of recurrent expenditures has changed. Fewer and fewer funds have been available for staff allowances, travel and other on-duty expenses. The result of this is that staff are frequently desk-bound and programs cannot be implemented for lack of staff mobility, materials and equipment. Moreover, research staff are frequently deployed in isolated locations with relatively small farming communities and in numbers that are not sufficient to achieve the critical mass necessary for any real impact on rural development. The lack of a well-coordinated national strategy for agricultural research has in the past constrained the effectiveness of the considerable resources made available by the donor agencies for the sub-sector. 8. There is a critical shortage of appropriately qualified and experienced Zambian professional staff. Consequently, many senior field positions are being filled by inadequately trained staff and the research service in particular is obliged to rely heavily on the services of expatriate professionals, mostly working under short term contracts. This is clearly expensive, inconvenient, and leads to disruption of programs through frequent staff turnover. Nevertheless, reliance on expatriate staff, particularly in planning and evaluation work, is likely to persist at least to the end of the decade when more Zambian graduates will start becoming available. 9. While the numbers of technical and support staff are on the whole adequate, their training is not. The curricula of the agricultural training institutions do not yet reflect the change in emphasis in research and extension activities. Course content does not correspond to the socio-economic realities of smallholder farming; little account is taken of varying soil and climatic conditions from region to region and trainees are not prepared adequately for the job situation they will face. Teaching  - iv - staff at the agricultural training institutions are not kept up to date with developments in research and in the field. Furthermore, because the public sector is as a matter of policy the employer of last resort for diploma and certificate holders in agricultural sciences, and because it is extremely difficult to transfer or dismiss staff, there is already evidence of an excess of non-professional staff (particularly in extension) at the lower levels while the shortage of graduate-level staff persists. 10. Conditions of service in the agricultural research and extension institutions are less attractive than elsewhere, particularly the private and parastatal sectors. Salaries have declined by 50% in real terms over the last 10 years. Hardship allowances are not available, housing is inadequate, and there is no system of incentives for staff to perform well. These conditions create an environment in which staff have no motivation to put more than the minimum effort into their work. Career opportunities are also lacking. To achieve promotion, an agricultural scientist is usually obliged to seek a managerial position for which he may be less suited and less willing. 11. Research stations and sub-stations are found in all the provinces; however, many of these are in isolated locations and inadequately staffed for effective, multi-disciplinary research. While buildings and experimental areas are usually adequate, they are often poorly equipped and ill-maintained. At the same time, the direction of research programs is highly centralised and frequently inappropriate'to local conditions. Research station staff and extension staff in camps and blocks lack the means, both physical and financial, to regularly visit farmers. 12. Organizational problems include lack of coordination between the branches of the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Development responsible for research and extension and other agencies, including external donors: overlapping and duplication of effort are frequent. Collaboration between MAWD and the National Council for Scientific Research is insufficient. No comprehensive effort has so far been made to establish the value of resources (manpower, land, equipment and funds) devoted to research activities and extension projects of various types. There is a particularly pressing need to clarify the mechanisms for setting and reviewing research priorities. The rather cumbersome PEXCO (para. 2.07) system has been effectively shelved but the only other body hitherto engaged in this activity, NCSR, has neither the resources nor any real authority to have much of an impact in this area. Principal Findings 13. There is a clear need for a higher level of funding to agricultural services, particularly for recurrent expenditures, in line with the objective of promoting rapid increases in the agricultural GDP. This requires policy decisions at the highest Government levels involving reassessment of the relative priorities for the different economic sectors. Such decisions can be facilitated with attempts at quantification  v of the benefits of selected research and extension projects. Donor assistance should be coordinated at a central level. Underlying all this is the basic need for well-defined and consistent long-term Government objectives and policies for the agricultural sector. MAWD officials should be more closely involved with and consulted about resource planning and allocation decisions affecting the sector. 14. There is also considerable scope for improving the effectiveness of the use of available resources. As a first step, inventories should be established of resources already assigned to different projects and programs. Clear mechanisms and processes for setting priorities and for allocating/monitoring resources should be laid down. The number of research facilities and proposed CSRTs should be carefully reviewed, and where possible reduced to rationalise the use of scarce funds and manpower resources. The priorities for each research team should be clearly set and crops which can substitute for imports or generate foreign exchange within the smallholder subsector should be identified. Careful evaluation of experience with ARPTs already established should precede their further expansion. 15. The previous emphasis on commercial farming and the relative neglect of smallholders means that there are very few suitable extension messages available for the vast majority of farmers. Further agronomic work is required on a number of specific crops, such as cassava, millet, sorghum, beans and rice. Attention must be given to developing or introducing early-maturing maize varieties; tobacco research findings should be adapted to family farmer conditions. More work is also warranted on intercropping, smallholder mechanization, integrated farming systems, irrigation, soil conservation, crop storage, agro-forestry, and improvement of grazing on poor soils. 16. The organization and management of the research institutions should be reviewed. A decision is needed on whether or not a Department of Animal Science and Livestock Development is to be created: the present recommendation is that it should not. Crop and livestock research should be integrated to the extent possible. The duties and authority of research station managers with regard to the CSRTs and ARPTs should be defined. Formal, organic linkages should be established between research and extension. Research-Extension Liaison Officers and ARPT Committees should be appointed in each province to ensure effective cooperation between the ARPTs and provincial extension personnel. Extension staff (provincial and district SMSs) should be afforded opportunities to participate in meetings to determine research priorities. 17. Introduction of an extension system along T&V lines requires strong top-level policy commitment and effective communication of the merits and purposes of the system throughout the hierarchy. Operation of the system is likely to be difficult in many parts of Zambia with a dispersed population. Hence the need to move cautiously, to work within existing institutional constraints, and to adapt the model to local circumstances and needs. Farmers should be closely involved in the  - vi - problem-solving and decision-making process. More field demonstrations of improved technology are required and the language ability of extension workers should be considered when they are being posted to the field. 18. The creation of a unified multidisciplinary extension service under one line of command from MAWD's Extension Branch is already official policy: it should be implemented as a matter of high priority. The importance of maintaining administrative flexibility to allow quick decisions to be made in the field in response to changing needs in agriculture must be recognized. Lines of authority should be clear, and performance routinely monitored. Services such as those to rural youth and rural women should also be incorporated into the appropriate Government agency, in the former case the Ministry of Youth and Sports, in the latter the Department of Community Development. Animal husbandry and veterinary services should be reviewed in depth and recommendations made for their improvement. 19. The present Lima recommendations need to be urgently reviewed and refined on the basis of local verification and economic evaluation. Duplication between the Lima and IRDP programs and other development efforts should also be avoided in the future. The lack of consistency in their respective approaches should be addressed and the present recommendation is, that as a matter of policy, no inputs should be provided free of charge. 20. Extension messages should be technically sound, financially attractive, simple, practical, easily taught and learned. Appropriate messages for smallholders should be generated through the ARPTs and should therefore be related to farmer priorities and conditions in each region. Pricing policies, the supply of inputs, the availability of credit and other support services need to be reviewed. 21. The involvement of ward councillors and other local administration officials in extension work should be kept to a minimum. While they can provide valuable assistance in obtaining farmers' cooperation for introducing new technology or timely practices, they should avoid disrupting extension programs by requisitioning staff and facilities (especially transport) for purposes not related to agricultural extension. 22. Measures are needed to make the research and extension services more attractive to staff. Incentives for improved performance, adequate housing and hardship allowances should be provided. However, the present practice of providing additional incentives to special project staff should be discontinued: it is discriminatory and creates staff dissatisfaction. Opportunities for advancement should be based primarily on competence and productivity, and outstanding work should in particular be recognized and rewarded. Procedures should be developed for selecting, training, supervising and evaluating field staff on a continuing basis. With increasing availability of trained staff, appropriate policies are needed for the systematic phasing-out of unqualified extension workers. The  - vii - current government policy of guaranteeing employment to all newly qualified applicants also requires review in the light of increasing resource constraints and imminent staff surpluses. 23. Emphasis should be placed on constant upgrading of existing staff through regular in-service training, including opportunities for professional development of research scientists. Curricula in training institutions should be continuously revised and updated to reflect the state of the art in agricultural services. More emphasis in training is needed on practical work, and more time should be set aside for this. Farmer training should be reoriented from residential to mobile courses. Actions Needed 24. The current reorganization of research around CSRTs and ARPTs and of extension along T&V lines are initiatives in the right direction and deserve full support. This report highlights various institutional, management and technical constraints in both research and extension and makes specific recommendations, for example, on research programs, extension methodology and organization, staff training, and economic evaluation needs. Action on most of these recommendations is within the direct influence and control of the Research and Extension Branches of MAWD and should be initiated immediately. 25. Several outstanding issues in the two subsectors also need to be addressed as a matter of urgency: in research, the role, adequacy or necessity of existing research facilities, the mechanisms for overall program coordination and review, the appropriate number and functions of CSRTs and ARPTs, and the organization of livestock research; in extension, the modifications in the T&V approach needed for reaching dispersed farm populations under the different agro-ecological circumstances of each region, and for working within existing institutional and budgetary constraints. In addition, long-term manpower requirements at all levels need to be defined and comprehensive staff training and development programs should be prepared and implemented to cover both research and extension requirements. 26. On a more general but equally important level, decisions are required from Government to, clarify the relationship between MAWD and NCSR, improve coordination on capital and recurrent budget formulation between NCDP and the Ministry of Finance, and establish mechanisms for review and coordination of donor assistance to these subsectors. Two equally important sets of actions are also required to maintain the effectiveness and credibility of present MAWD initiatives in research and extension. First, explicit policy commitment from the highest levels of Government to agricultural development in general (including appropriate pricing policies to ensure adequate incentives) and specifically to the long-term strengthening of both research and extension, backed by increased funding (particularly of recurrent costs) for these subsectors. Second,the formulation of integrated national research and extension strategies/ policies with clearly specified priorities related to overall socio-  - viii - economic development objectives, which would help in establishing the most appropriate level and use of resources in these subsectors. 27. To enable the Assistant Directors for research and extension to better direct and coordinate the programs for which they have responsibility while also improving the coordination between extension, research and planning within the Ministry of Agriculture, the Research and Extension Directorates should be brought up to strength, largely through filling of existing vacancies and/or re-deployment of experienced staff. Moreover, to assist in the articulation of such strategies and policies, a permanent Coordination and Review Committee, comprising high-level expert representatives from MAWD, NCSR, UNZA, NRDC, etc., should be appointed immediately. The committee would be responsible for an early review of the appropriateness of research and extension objectives and programs in the context of government policy. It would also ensure that all research and extension activities, regardless of institutional origin, were coordinated and that the available resources were applied to the best advantage of the agricultural sector. The committee should assign the highest priority to the immediate review of long-term strategies for both research and extension, as formulated by MAWD, prior to any further significant development of activities in these subsectors. Subsequently, this review should be undertaken annually, with a comprehensive in-depth review once every five years. 28. Strategy formulation would involve carrying out a detailed overview and assessment of the research and extension subsectors, taking stock of achievements and progress to date, and identifying those parts of the existing systems which need to be strengthened or cut back. Such an exercise should critically review the need for all existing research facilities, prepare long-term research plans for all CSRTs, evaluate the extension approaches adopted under various ongoing projects and programs, develop extension models for the different agro-economic regions and provinces, and make appropriate recommendations on program focus, organization, staffing and training. Subsector shortcomings and resource needs should be clearly identified and detailed capital and recurrent cost estimates prepared for proposed developments in research and extension over the next five years. This would provide policy makers with concrete investment programs in line with a consistent strategy and help ensure that all future donor assistance fits within a coordinated framework. 29. In the case of the World Bank, the above exercise could result in a preparation report for a possible agricultural research and extension project in Zambia. Bank financing should be made available to the Government to employ a team of qualified and experienced consultants who could assist the Ministry of Agriculture in the preparation of the strategy paper, workplans and investment program. After completion of the main tasks, probably over a 6-months' period, starting early 1984, two of the consultants (one each for research and extension) could be retained to provide support to the respective Assistant Directors during the initial implementation of the proposed organizational and policy changes and investment programs.  - ix - 30. Finally, the Government should consider bringing together, towards the middle of 1984, the various donors currently involved in Zambia's agricultural sector, with the objective of securing their support for incorporating future assistance to the research and extension subsectors into the strategic framework developed through the above exercise. The Bank could assist in coordinating such a meeting, if the Government so desires.  ZAMBIA AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND EXTENSION REVIEW I. BACKGROUND A. General Location and Physical Characteristics 1.01 Located in central Southern Africa, Zambia shares a common border with no fewer than eight* other African States: Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, Angola and Zaire. The national territory covers about 750,000 km2. It is completely land-locked but Zambian sovereignty extends over territorial waters in portions of three sizeable international lakes: Tanganyika, Kariba and Mweru, and wholly includes one other large lake, Bangweulu. Altitude varies between approximately 1,000 m over most of the country to peaks of about 2,500 m. There are two great trans-country rivers: the Zambezi and the Chambesi- Luapula. All the other rivers of significance drain into these two arteries. The principal ecological zones and agro-economic regions are detailed in paras 1.06 through 1.11. Population (IBRD Map 11542R) 1.02 The total population of Zambia is estimated at about six million inhabitants and is thought to be growing at over 3% annually: one of the highest rates in the world. It is anticipated that at this rate there will be ten million Zambians by the year 2000. The growth of the urban population has been especially rapid in recent years at about 9% per annum and is caused by significant movement away from rural areas. The largest concentrations of population are along the line-of-rail which links the Copperbelt with Livingstone via Lusaka. Over 40% of the population (or two and a half million people) now live in urban areas, making Zambia the most urbanized nation in Africa after South Africa and Algeria. The balance of the population depends on agriculture for a livelihood. Transport and Communications 1.03 Zambia has a transport network composed of some 35,000 km of roads, 2,000 km of railways, and 170 airports and landing strips. There is also a 1,700 km oil pipeline from Ndola to Dar-es-Salaam. Because it is land-locked, Zambia is vulnerable to military and political disturbances in neighboring territories: traditionally, external trade has been carried by rail through Angola, Tanzania, or via Zimbabwe tQ South Africa and Mozambique. Recently road links through Malawi and Tanzania have assumed new significance. Wide divergence between potential and actual carrying capacities of the network has been a persistent problem for the transport sector. It is related to deficient management and planning, to technical problems and to long term neglect of maintenance. The results are long delays, loss of goods and disproportionately high transport costs. * The existence of a common border between Zambia and Botswana is disputed; in addition, Zambia, Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe differ on the precise demarcation of their respective boundaries where all four meet at the Caprivi strip.  -2- The Economy 1.04 Although agriculture supports over 50% of Zambia's population, it accounts for only about 15% of GDP. The mining sector, mainly copper mining, has traditionally dominated the economy and accounted for an overwhelming proportion of GDP and foreign exchange earnings. However, that sector now faces significnnt medium and long-term problems. Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.1% in the first ten years after Independence in 1964 but per capita income has declined steadily since that time. Since 1976 the economy has been in depression, due mainly to a 40% decline in the price of copper but also to military and political events in neighboring countries. Export earnings and Government revenues have fallen, causing balance of payments problems: current account deficits averaged 8% of GNP in the period 1976-80. Zambia's 1980 GNP was estimated at K2.8 billion (US$3.4 billion equivalent); for the same year, per capita domestic income was less than 50% its 1965 level in real terms. 1.05 The structure of the economy has changed in recent years. Declines in the mining sector have been offset by the increased share of services. Government consumption has increased in relative terms while Government savings have become negative. National savings and real investment decreased during the late 70s while the average incremental capital-output ratio has increased significantly. Despite improved relations with Zimbabwe, which have mitigated Zambia's physical access problems, investments in mining for the foreseeable future are likely to do no more than maintain existing levels of output, employment and foreign exchange earnings. Without a successful diversification policy and considerable long-term structural adjustments, Zambia faces a relatively dismal economic future. Any significant economic growth will have to come from the agricultural sector and this will be the country's most serious challenge for the rest of this century and probably well into the next. B. Ecology, Land Tenure and Farming Systems (IBRD Map 11631R) Ecological Zones 1.06 Broadly speaking, Zambia can be divided into four major ecological zones. The Northern High Rainfall Zone comprises the major parts of Northern, Luapula, Copperbelt and North Western Provinces. It is characterized by higher rainfall than the rest of Zambia (1,000-1,500 mm on average, all falling between November and April) and generally poor, leached sandvelt soils. The mean length of the rainy season (145 to 190 days) favors annual crops with a long growing season. However, high rainfall, low sunshine hours, and cloud cover reduce temperatures to an average of 21