Afghanistan - Livestock - the development challenge

Report No. 2315-AF Livestock-The Development Challenge A Sub-Sector Survey Afghanistan September 12, 1979 Projects Department Europe, Middle East and North Africa Region FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and inay be used by recipients only in thie performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Afghanis (AF) 40 = US$1 AF 1 = US$0.025 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 hectare (ha) = 10,000 m2 = 2.47 acres = 5 jeribs 1 jerib = 2,000 m2 = 0.2 ha = 0.49 acres 1 kilometer (km) = 0.624 miles 1 sq. kilometer (km2) = 0.386 sq. miles = 100 ha 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.2046 pounds 1 metric ton (ton) = 1,000 kg = 2,204.6 pounds 1 liter = 1.057 US quarts  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY AFGHANISTAN LIVESTOCK - THE DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGE A Sub-Sector Survey Table of Contents Page No. BASIC DATA BACKGROUND, SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS . ............... i-xi I. THE STRUCTURE OF THE LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY ............ 1 A. Livestock in the Economy ..... ................. 1 B. Livestock Production ..... ..................... 1 C. Animal Husbandry ..... . ....................... .. 4 II. LIVESTOCK IN THE SEVEN-YEAR PLAN ................... 4 A. Plan Goals ....... ................ 4 B. Programs and Projects ....... . . 5 C. Progress to Date ...... ........................ 7 D. The Plan in Perspective ....................... 7 III. CONSTRAINTS TO IMPROVING LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION ...... 8 A. Animal Nutrition and Rangelands .............. . 8 B. Institutional Constraints .......... *.......... 12 C. Animal Health . .... ................. ......... . 12 D. Animal Breeding and Husbandry .............. ... 13 E. Wool .......................................... 13 Fe Meat ..oo....oo.oo . .oo....... ..... oo .................... 14 G. Hides and Skins . ..... .. ..... ...... ..... 15 H. Poultry *.... .. 15 Io Milk ... ........................... ooo...... o.oo ......... oo 15 J. Credit .... o ................ o.... 15 IV. GOALS, STRATEGIES, PROGRAMS AND PROJECTS FOR LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT ... o.o ....... 16 Ao Goals ..o..o.o .................. oo............ .oo*o.... o 16 B. The Approach - Lessons Learned ... o............ 18 C. The Resource Base and the Potential ............ 18 This report is based on the findings of a Mission consisting of V.A. Ashworth and D.M. O'Connor (Consultant), which visited Afghanistan in March 1978; draft report was reviewed by the Government and discussed with Bank Missions in January and July 1979. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  Table of Contents (Continued) Page No. D. Strategies ...... .............................. 20 E. Policies, Programs, and Projects .... .......... 24 V. PRIORITY SHORT RUN PROGRAMS ........................ 24 A. Animal Nutrition and Rangelands . ............... 24 B. Institutional Reform .................... ... . 30 C. Animal Health ... ......... 32 D. Meat ....... ................. ................. 34 E. Carpets ..... 36 F. Milk ........................................ 36 G. Poultry ..................................... 38 H. Institutional Credit .................... ... . 38 I. Animal Breeding ............................. 39 VI. LOWER PRIORITY LONGER RUN PROGRAMS .............. ... 39 A. Ministry of Agriculture ................... .. 39 B. Animal Health ....... ........................ 39 C. Meat ........................................... 40 D. Wool ........... ................................ 41 E. Karakul ........ ................................ 42 F. Animal Breeding ....... ......................... 42 G. Hides and Skins ...... .......................... 43 H. Livestock Census ...... ............ ........ 43 I. Animal Research ...... .......................... 44 ANNEXES 1. Animal Health . .......................................... 45 2. Animal Nutrition and Rangelands ............ .. ........... 53 3. Animal Breeding and Husbandry ..... ...................... 67 4. Production, Processing and Marketing of Livestock Products A. Wool ... ............................................. 71 B. Meat ................................................ 75 C. Hides and Skins .....*...... ......................... 82 D. Karakul .. ........................................... 84 E. Poultry Products ................ ....................*.*. 88 F. Dairy Products ........ .............................. 90 5. Ministry of Agriculture - Veterinary Services and Animal Production Department ......... .......................... 99 MAPS 1. IBRD 13704 2. IBRD 13705  BASIC DATA Area Population (1976/77)la Total: 675,000 km2 Total: 14.0 million = 67.5 miillion hectares Urban: 2.5 million Pasture: 40 million nectares Rural: 10.0 million Arable: 8 million hectares Nomadic: 1.5 million - cultivated 3.8 hectares (irrigable Rate of Growth: 2.2% - uncultivated 4.2 hectares 2.7 mil. ha) Education (1974/75) GNP Per Capita (1976/77)-: $160 Adult Literacy Rate: 8-10% Rate of Growth: 3.1% (1970/71) (1966-76) Enrollment Ratios: Primary School: 29.8% Secondary School: 12.0% Higher Education: 6.7% Labor Force (1975/76) Thousands % of Total Agriculture and Livestock 2492.8 52.9 Industry and Mining 40.7 0.9 Handicrafts 843.6 17.9 Construction 44.7 0.9 Transport and Communications 56.6 1.2 Commerce 257.3 5.5 Services 691.6 14.7 Other 282.7 6.0 Total 4710.0 100.0 1975/76 Per 1976/77 Per Merchandise Exports US$ Mui. -cent cent Dry Fruits and Nuts 54.7 23 61.9 21 Fresh Fruits 20.1 8 25.8 9 Cotton 35.3 15 64.5 22 Natural Gas 46.3 20 39.6 13 Miscellaneous 30.1 13 36.0 12 Sub-total 186.5 79 227.8 77 Karakul 10.4 4 19.8 7 Wool and Hair 10.8 5 8.9 3 Hides and Skins 11.7 5 11.0 4 Carpets and Rugs 16.1 7 25.9 9 Sub-total 49 21 65.6 23 Total 235.5 100.0 293.4 100.0 ia Source: Basic Economic Report, IBRD No. 1777a-AF, March,1978. /b World Bank Atlas, 1977.  BASIC DATA (Cont'd) Livestock Population (1977) Million Head Cattle 3.4 Sheep 19.4 Goats 3.0 Camels, Donkeys, Horses 2.0 Poultry 6.0  BACKGROUND, SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Introduction 1. This Livestock Sub-sector Survey was initiated at the request of the Government of Afghanistan in order to identify firstly, the major sub-sector development constraints and secondly, possible strategies and programs for alleviating these. It was hoped that the resulting report would form the basis upon which Government could establish future policies within which possibilities for future IDA and other donor financial assistance could be identified. The recommendations made in this study are based on the work of the original mission (March 1978) and follow-up discussions (based on a draft report dated December 21, 1978) with representatives of the Government of the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan. The recommendations made will need to be adapted to the new Government's evolving policies, detailed analytical work and, in many cases, financial and economic evaluations would need to be made before final decisions on recommended programs and projects could be made. The report does not advocate that Afghanistan's economic future should be based upon priority allocation of resources towards livestock development. It is recognized that national resource allocation must take account of broader national issues and developmental goals. Livestock is but one sub-sector of the total economy. It is however important and would justify, in terms of potential economic and social benefits, a higher allocation of development resources than has been made in the past. The survey endeavours to analyze existing and past programs and strategies, developmental constraints, and then within the subsector, to recommend strategies and priority programs which would, if effectively implemented, make a worthwhile contribution towards achieving national economic and social goals. Where recommended strategies, programs and projects are accepted and accorded appropriate priority, it will be necessary to prepare detailed in-depth implementation schedules. It is recognized that Afghanistan could not implement all of the recommendations at one time. For this reason a rough order of priority is suggested, with programs categorized as "Priority Short Run" or "Lower Priority Longer Run". Higher priority "short run" programs would perhaps be implemented progres- sively during the next 5 to 8 years. It is not intended that the report cover all technical aspects of livestock development. However, more detailed technical discussion is contained in the Annexes 1-5. Livestock Sub-Sector Background 2. Livestock products, including carpets and rugs, account for 25% of GNP and 23% of exports (1976/77, US$65.6 million). In addition, the value of unofficial live sheep exports to Iran is estimated at about US$33 million. Per capita meat consumption is estimated at 11.5 kg per annum and milk 60 kg, which is low by international standards. The livestock sub-sector is impor- tant in the total economy due to its contribution both to exports and domestic living standards; almost all the rural population of about 12 million are, to some degree, dependent on livestock for income, food and draft power. 3. The dominant feature of Afghan livestock production and husbandry is the annual migration system, with some 20 million sheep and 3 million goats maintained mainly on the rangelands, with winter grazing on the semi-arid plains and summer grazing in the mountains. Production is severly limited by  the poor quality and sparse nature of the rangeland grazing, with which the livestock exists in precarious balance. High death rates occur in drought years due to the combined effects of starvation, disease and parasites. Three and a half million cattle, kept mainly for draught use on irrigated land, are also poorly fed and have low production. Good potential exists for livestock development, as sheep, goat and cattle breeds are well suited to the generally harsh conditions and, given adequate nutrition and disease control, meat and milk production could be substantially increased; and is capable of meeting both domestic and export requirements. Capable, resourseful, livestock owners have shown an ability to devise management systems well suited to the environ- ment. 4. Current plans and projects aim to increase livestock numbers largely through disease control but, with the exception of the IDA-financed Herat Livestock Development Project (Credits 375-AF and 649-AF) which includes components for increasing irrigation forage production, fail to recognize that increasing livestock production can only be achieved through an integrated approach designed to achieve national (urban and rural) food security, improve disease control, increase offtake, and most importantly, increase the feed base. Little has been achieved over the past decade and stock numbers and production appear to have remained static, due largely to a failure to define priorities and to plan and execute effective projects. Conclusions 5. Increased livestock production is essential as one means of increas- ing protein available to present and forecasted population. Plant protein cannot completely substitute for animal protein in the diets of Afghan people who constitute a society in which animals and their products are culturally and economically important. The major objective in Afghan livestock produc- tion should be to maintain, or even decrease numbers and increase individual animal productivity through improved feeding and disease control, while concurrently reducing mortality and increasing offtake. The substantial increase in livestock feed supply necessary for improving production, can only be achieved through range development and by greater use of irrigation water for forage production. Using balanced crop rotations which include a legume, both livestock and agricultural crop production could be increased as part of improved farm management systems in which animals and plants are compli- mentary. There is insufficient understanding of range use and development, which is a massive, delicately balanced complex of agronomic, ecologic, socio-economic factors. Long-term survey and research work must be initiated so as to provide a sound basis for designing and implementing effective improvement programs. Range projects initiated without full cognisance of all the factors involved could upset a very delicate balance and result in a sociological and ecological disaster. No meaningful improvement in range- land production can be obtained until some effective means are found to control both the livestock and people using the ranges. This cannot be achieved in the short run and all involved must be reconciled to the fact that range improvement is a difficult long-term objective. Range improvement programs should include activities to encourage nomads to change lifestyles and move into alternative means of making a living.  - iii - 6. The nomads and their pastoral system represent one of the nation's great resources. They utilize a resource and make a contribution to the econ- omy without any call upon Government services or expenditure; and no other group or system in Afghanistan could utilize the harsh remote rangelands any other way. While some modification of the present system, such as encouraging partial nomadic settlement combined with maintaining the migration system, may be desirable, it should be allowed to evolve slowly and with the full support of the people it is designed to help; the nomads themselves. Programs designed to help nomads should be very carefully prepared, have a reasonable chance of success and be efficiently executed by people with expert knowledge (and sympathy for) both the complex as a whole and the people in particular. 7. As alfalfa yields are high in Afghanistan by international stand- ards, alfalfa production on irrigated land for feeding to livestock appears economically attractive. However farmers cannot be expected to increase alfalfa production until they have assured self-sufficiency in wheat, ade- quate summer water, reliable livestock product markets and adequate veter- inary protection and extension. Alfalfa can contribute significantly to soil fertility and improved yields in crop rotations, but development must be through integrated agricultural and livestock programs which ameliorate all the major constraints mentioned. 8. The export of sheep meat to high priced Iranian and Gulf State markets can earn the foreign exchange required to import lower priced high quality protein such as soya and non-fat milk powder, which are better suited to infant and nursing mother use, the groups where protein deficiency is of greatest concern. Increased milk and egg production could also contribute to improving the diet of young children and nursing mothers. Cattle are kept on most farms for draft purposes, with milk produced largely as a byproduct. Providing reliable markets and collection systems are established, potential exists for increasing milk production by stepping up irrigated forage produc- tion and improving animal health services, artificial breeding and extension. This would require the organization of a milk collection and transport system for liquid milk sale in urban areas, and for processing in small low cost plants to cheese and other milk products. A fluid milk industry would need to be supplemented in the winter with reconstituted milk from initially, imported components. Improved poultry production must be based on grain feeding to improved stock which efficiently convert feed to meat and eggs. While grain feeding cannot be justified for sheep and cattle on both social and economic grounds, potential exists for using corn and barley in an efficient poultry industry, particularly as the country moves closer to grain self-sufficiency. The industry would, however, need to be efficiently operated and use well bred imported stock in relatively small commercial operations, adequately supported with health, extension, credit and marketing services. 9. The Ministry of Agriculture is faced with heavy responsibilities and has many calls on its limited manpower resources; it has comparatively few well trained and experienced people with a full understanding of the development process, and an appreciation of farmer and flock owner's problems. Furthermore, the administrative framework in which staff have to operate is inadequate to meet the needs of dynamic agricultural and livestock develop- ment. In order to identify priorities, limit objectives, and concentrate  - iv - resources in effective programs and projects, an indepth review of the Ministry's objectives and resources in the livestock sub-sector and of admin- istrative bottlenecks is now required. To increase the number of trained staff the Ministry should develop regular and appropriate in-service training programs and require all professional staff to spend lengthy periods in the field, with promotion and salary increases being dependent upon field perform- ance. Ultimately, specialist training should be given to a limited number in poultry production, hides and skins, animal husbandry, nutrition and wool so that appropriate projects and programs could be effectively implemented at the farm level. Selection of projects and programs should, inter alia, be based upon a detailed analysis of their cost effectiveness, rather than the more superficial evaluation which prioritizes projects merely because they are cheap (financially and manpower) or judged as being too expensive. 10. Control of all animal diseases is beyond the present resources of Government. Economically important diseases should, however, be defined and a control program, based on 3 regional diagnostic laboratories with well equipped mobile vaccinating teams, established. Greater benefit could be obtained from existing clinics and sub-clinics by providing these with adequate equipment including refrigeration, for vaccine storage, transport, and with improved staff training and supervision. But what is needed most in the animal health field is a 'barefoot veterinarian' approach, which would train semi-literate village veterinary workers in limited, but effective, skills and extend veter- inary services to the villages, where the need is most. Government could not, however, afford to establish an entirely free effective veterinary service and consequently, the introduction of some cost recovery system among livestock owners will be necessary. Recommendations 11. Overall development goals for the livestock sub-sector should be to economically increase production in order to raise incomes and standards of living, reduce farmer risks associated with livestock production, promote self-sustaining development and strengthen the national economy by increasing exports, rural employment opportunities and achieving security in basic food production. 12. Strategies to achieve these goals should include programs which would have maximum impact at the grassroots farm level; retain the means of production largely in the private/cooperative sector; increase animal produc- tivity and offtake rather than numbers; improve animal nutrition through first achieving national food security; upgrade the effectiveness of Government institutions; and ensure that producer prices provide sufficient incentive for increasing livestock production, consistent with maintaining balanced produc- tion of key crops such as wheat, cotton, fruit and vegetables. 13. The main recommended programs and policies within these strategies would include: Rangelands and Nutrition (i) Improved animal nutrition can only be achieved by increasing the total amount of digestable feed available. A total  increase in feed can be achieved in four ways. Firstly, increasing the amount of irrigated forage grown; secondly, introducing on rainfed crop land suitable leguminous crops; thirdly, introducing range management and control systems combined with introducing suitable legumes and woody plants to increase range pasture productivity; and fourthly, improving the utilization of crop and industrial by-products. Afghanistan should not encourage animal fattening or milk production based upon feeding large quantities of relatively expensive concentrates and grain. (ii) A survey of the entire ranges involving the agronomy, ecology, sociology and economy is a vast undertaking but such a survey, progressively implemented over time, is recommended for serious consideration. (iii) Preparation, after appropriate survey, of a pilot but compre- hensive nomad cooperative-range management project. (iv) Establishment of special training programs for range manage- ment and production technicians and professionals; and a comprehensive review of reports, studies and relevant litera- ture on the Afghan nomad-range complex. Institutional Reform (v) In order to improve the operational efficiency of the Ministry of Agriculture in general and the Veterinary Services and Animal Production Department in particular, as a development agency, a high level task force should be established to carry out a comprehensive review of the existing situation highlighting constraints and bottlenecks, and making recommendations for future improvement (it is considered this would be worthwhile despite recent moves made to improve the situation). (vi) Despite its apparently high cost, the Ministry of Agriculture should establish a training department fully equipped and supported with the necessary qualified staff to carry out a meaningful training function, which would focus upon three main areas: continuous in-service, induction, and retraining. (vii) A complete effectiveness and operational review of the Gov- ernment farms should now be made. The prime aim should be to establish limited objectives, with a meaningful role in the livestock production improvement and guard against a disproportionate channelling of resources (finance, manpower, water) into operations which do not prove in practice to be cost effective and which ultimately cannot make a significant contribution to improving national production.  - vi - (viii) A Project identification, preparation, appraisal and evalua- tion unit should be established within the Planning Depart- ment of the Ministry of Agriculture to assist with policy formulation, to initiate, appraise and supervise projects within that policy, and to promote the use of monitoring and evaluation as a management tool. 1/ (ix) Staff field assignments should be made more attractive rela- tive to Kabul based appointments. A broader range of incen- tives to attract staff to the field needs to be introduced. Such a package could include salary and promotion bars which cannot be passed without serving on a field assignment; pro- vision of housing at low rentals; for married staff an assignment allowance for wife and each child; and maximum field tours of say four years followed by rotation to Kabul or other stations with better than average facilities. Animal Health (x) After a full review of existing knowledge, "notifiable" diseases, control of which should be given priority con- sideration, should be defined. Criteria for selection of these diseases should be the cost of control compared to the economic and financial losses saved, including partic- ularly, their effect on production and growth. (xi) The number of diagnostic laboratories should be restricted to perhaps three or four. These should be properly equipped, staffed, and have adequate financial support. Emphasis should be placed upon determining exactly which diseases and parasites exist, their economic importance, the most effi- cient means of control and the location of more concentrated infection areas. It is undesirable for Afghanistan to attempt to provide sufficient facilities and highly trained staff, to be able to undertake diagnostic services for every possible disease. (xii) An effective animal health control service can be an element for rural education and social change. Basic veterinary services including vaccinations and animal health extension can be effectively provided by village veterinary workers, or a 'barefoot veterinarian' approach which would expand the service offered through well trained and supervised 'village yeterinary workers' (VVW's), and out into the villages where the need is greatest. These people need not be academically qualified but must be well trained in basic veterinary first 1/ A unit has recently been established but it is not clear that it includes provision for an effective monitoring and evaluation unit.  - vii - aid and vaccination techniques. Ultimately the standard of trairing and academic background can be progressively raised but it is neither necessary, desirable or economic for Afghanistan, at its present stage of development, to aim at having the majority of the veterinary staff fully quali- fied academically. (xiii) Diseases of national importance and hence "notifiable" should be controlled free of charge; all other veterinary services, particularly clinical, should be charged for on a simple fixed rate basis; local finance is a constant constraint and an effi- cient service simply cannot be provided free by the Government of Afghanistan. (xiv) While legislation for specific animal disease control and animal health services in general is a desirable objective, it is essential that such legislation should be simple, practical, and capable of being enforced. (xv) Present policy for vaccine production should be fully reviewed. A fairly large range of vaccines is presently produced, and whether it is desirable, economic and necessary for Afghanistan to produce these should be carefully examined; furthermore, the quality and therefore effectiveness of presently produced vaccine should be examined. (xvi) More practical type training and experience should be intro- duced into existing education programs. No degree in veterinary science should be granted until the candidate has spent a minimum of one year in the field operating among farmers. Meat (xvii) Meat industry policy should be based upon programs which would increase meat production (through integrated agricultural devel- opment programs including effective veterinary services), suffi- cient to ensure meeting annual domestic demand at reasonable prices, and the ever increasing export demand. However in order to compete with the main world mutton and lamb exporters (Australia and New Zealand) Afghanistan will have to develop vigorous, professional marketing skills, and establish a reputa- tion for reliability in meeting contractual quantity and quality obligations. (xviii) The policy of maintaining reasonable domestic meat prices should take account of not only consumer purchasing power and demands, but also the returns which producers require to not only maintain production, but to compensate for the risks involved in livestock production and divert land and water from lower value crops such as wheat, into forage for conversion to meat.  - viii - (xix) For the domestic market, no additional processing works should be established until demand and meat price, clearly indicates that, they would be financially viable without Government subsidies or need to unfairly increase the consumer price, or reduce that paid to producers. Carpets (xx) Expansion and improvement in the carpet industry production and efficiency should receive priority. Government intervention should be confined to providing the necessary support including maintaining favorable trading conditions, assistance in expanding export markets, ensuring availability of credit for both produc- tion and marketing, quality control, and to the extent possible, a fair return for the producer's effort. Caution should be exer- cised in any Government attempt to control the carpet industry. Dairy Production (xxi) Dairy development should be designed to meet an increasing demand for improved nutrition levels, and replacing milk product imports which, if local production is not increased, are likely to increase in accordance with demand. (xxii) Milk production programs should be based largely upon small farm development in conjunction with integrated rural development projects, and as a part of a national dairy development program. Such a policy is likely to see milk production increase more quickly and at lower cost than on large 'commercial' state farms, where managerial experience and the entrepreneurial approach are not strong. (xxiii) The retail milk price should reward the producer sufficiently to encourage him to maintain and increase production. (xxiv) The preparation of a national dairy development program with the presently proposed dairy project 1/ as a first phase, is recom- mended. Dairy production programs should not be designed to encourage all year round milk production. Due to the climate, winter milk production is not only difficult but would be expen- sive and hard to maintain. It is strongly recommended that farm dairy production should be on a seasonal basis with calving coin- ciding with the onset of spring growth. 1/ Annex 4, Section F, paras. 3.02-4.02. Also FAO/ISCDD Final Report, December 1977.  - ix - Poultry (xxv) In view of the need for daily personal type management and the need to carefully monitor costs relative to output, commercial poultry production is best undertaken on a decentralized basis. Government activities should focus on operation of a rehab- ilitated Bagrami poultry farm designed to carry out applied research, such as housing, and the introduction of parent stock for the production of hybrid stock for sale to commercial producers. In addition Government should provide supporting services including animal health, specialized poultry husbandry and feeding extension, credit, and assistance with egg and poultry marketing cooperative formulation; and a feed compound- ing plant for quality concentrate feed production. (xxvi) Within the Ministry of Agriculture, a specialized poultry extension service should be established. Livestock Census (xxvii) As with many developing countries the available Afghan statis- tical data are not always reliable. As a basis for more objec- tive Livestock Sub-sector planning a new livestock census is required; a census should be accompanied by the establishment of simple reliable systems for monitoring changes over time. Wool (xxviii) National wool production policy should give priority to improv- ing, through extension activities, national flock nutrition and control of parasites and diseases. However, the establishment within the Ministry of Agriculture rf a small highly trained extension service which would focus ipon wool improvement and production technology would be worth considering. (xxix) Afghanistan could ultimately be a major producer of long staple, coarse carpet-style wool, and given appropriate research and development programs in the production and marketing sectors could develop an export industry in quality "carpet-style" wool sold in "washed" condition. To achieve this goal, production and quality, including the implementa- tion of a wool grading system would have to substantially increase. (xxx) Until a clear demand is demonstrated and existing plants are operating to full capacity (including the use of more than one sh4ft operation), no additional wool scouring plants should be established. Production of woolen textiles, and yarns suit- able for the carpet and handicraft trade, should be so designed to meet domestic demand only.  Animal Breeding (xxxi) The introduction of new sheep breeds should not be made in the foreseeable future. The present breeds have very good genetic potential for desirable economic characteristics including wool, growth rate, fecundity, milk production, pelt color, and hardiness. The introduction of fine wool breeds, with the objec- tive of producing fine wool to substitute for imports may not prove cost effective; a previous attempt to introduce new sheep breeds failed. Hides and Skins (xxxii) The quality of leather and of locally made handicraft goods, which are in keen demand by tourists, should be upgraded. Gov- ernment assistance should be directed firstly towards ensuring the establishment of a viable industry producing high quality goods; secondly, establishing control standards and' systems; thirdly, providing both operation and marketing credit at commer- cial rates to the private sector; and fourthly where appropriate, arranging for foreign managerial and technical assistance. Animal Research (xxxiii) Research must have a basic objective of economically increasing farm production. It should meantime, be confined to testing and adapting international work to Afghan conditions within the frame- work of farm management systems and technology relevant to the Afghan farmer. Policy, coordination and direction should be undertaken within the framework of the proposed Agricultural Research Institute which is to include all concerned agencies and departments. An integral part of any reorganized research program would be improving the information flow from researcher to farmer and vice versa. 14. Whilst the potential for improving livestock production sufficient to meet both domestic and export demand, is good, the means by which it can be developed to the best advantage of both the nation and individual livestock owners, presents no easy task. The contribution which the sub-sector makes to the economy as a whole and to the well being of peoples' lives would justify an improvement firstly, in priority given it as compared to the past, and secondly, the resources allocated for its development. Livestock and the related industry, including carpets and handicrafts, represents one of the nation's most valuable resources, but without the will and the means to give the development process the necessary momentum, the sub-sector will continue to remain Afghanistan's development challenge. Investment Possibilities 15. The main investment possibilities which have emerged from this study and of interest to IDA include:  - xi - (i) A dairy/poultry project including assistance to existing and possibly new State farms, milk collection, processing and market- ing, concentrate feed production, on-farm development and credit, and strengthening of related Government services such as veterinary, artificial insemination and extension. Total investment and operat- ing costs over four years could amount to about Af 1600 million (US$40 million) but a substantial proportion of these costs (perhaps 25-30%) could ultimately be recovered from consumers and, through credit activities, subborrowers. (ii) A phased national program to coincide with an improvement in marketing opportunities and range management survey work, for establishment of an effective national veterinary service includ- ing a village veterinary service, mobile services to nomads, extension of the number of sub-clinics, review of present vaccine production objectives, staff training and provision of supporting equipment. An initial 3 year phase including investment and operating costs could amount to Af 800 million (US$20 million). Cost recovery on drugs and vaccines might ultimately amount to 50 or 60% of this. (iii) Additional rural development projects which address, on an integrated package basis, veterinary services, agricultural research and exten- sion, range management and improvement, livestock marketing and an improvement in animal feed supplies. The recently approved Rural Development Project to be centered on Ghazni, Kabul and Paktika provinces is estimated to cost (investment and operating) Af 1560 million (US$39 million) phased over five years. (iv) After appropriate survey and preparation work in each case, range management and rural development projects designed primarily to assist nomads and other rangeland users. Variations in cost would be considerable, but including preparation work, each project could cost Af 320-400 million (US$8-10 million) including invest- ment and operating costs. 16. These opportunities, would after agreement in principle with the Government of Afghanistan, require the preparation of detailed feasibility studies to determine their technical, financial and economic viability. Social benefits would, to the extent possible, also need to be taken into account in determining the acceptability of projects.   AFGHANISTAN LIVESTOCK SUB-SECTOR SURVEY I. THE STRUCTURE OF THE LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY A. Livestock in the Economy 1/ 1.01 Total GNP in 1976-77 was about Af 115 billion, which translates to GNP per capita of Af 8,200 (US$160). 2/ Agriculture (including livestock and forestry) produces about 50 percent of GNP. Livestock accounts for about 16% and handicrafts (largely woolen carpets and rugs), a further 8-10%. Livestock products are about 14% of total exports with carpets and rugs accounting for a further 9%. This 23% represents a substantial decline (from about 40% in 1967-68) during the 10 years ending March 1977, when the value of total exports increased by a factor of 4.4, due largely to an increase in the volume and value of other exports including dried fruit and natural gas (Table 1, page 2). The total value of recorded livestock exports including carpets and rugs in 1976-77 amounted to US$65.6 million, of which carpets and rugs contri- buted 39%, karakul 30%, hides and skins 17%, and wool and hair 14%. The value of unrecorded live sheep exports to Iran is about US$33 million 3/ per annum. Only a small amount of livestock products, mainly milk powders are imported. Of the total estimated population of 14 million, 85% including about 1.5 million nomads live in rural areas. Population growth rate is about 2.2% per annum. 4/ About 70% of the total labor force of 4.7 million are engaged in agriculture, livestock, and handicrafts. B. Livestock Production 1.02 All meat and milk (excepting imported donated milk products) are pro- duced domestically, and provide annual per capita levels of about 11.5 kg 5/ meat and 60 kg milk equivalent. Fresh milk consumption is mainly restricted 1/ Detailed information on Afghanistan's economy is presented in 'Journey to Economic Development', IBRD report No. 1777a-AF, March 17, 1978. 2/ Compared to India $150, Pakistan $170, Nepal $120, Turkey $990 (World Bank Atlas, 1977). 3/ Mission estimates. 4/ Compared to India 2.1%, Bangladesh 2.0%, Pakistan 3.0%, and Nepal 2.1%; Ministry of Planning considers present growth rate (1978) 2.51%. 5/ Compared to Iran 12 kg, USSR 42 kg, USA 88 kg, and New Zealand 103 kg (Total red meat 1977).  Table 1: Exports of Livestock Products -------------Afghan Year -------------- 1346 1347 1348 1349 1350 1351 1352 1353 1354 1355 (1967-68) (1968-69) (1969-70) (1970-71) (1971-72) (1972-73) (1973-74) (1974-75) (1975-76) (1976-77 Casings - 1000 Coils 2104 1874 1467 820 3971 3254 1965 2243 1623 2316 Volume Index - - - loo 484 397 240 274 198 282 Total Value Afs Mil. - - - 52.4 52.4 46.5 46.9 47.0 47.4 41.4 Value Index - - - 100 100 89 89 90 90 79 Value Afs/Coil 46.0 44.0 50.3 43.5 208.3 151.3 92.2 105.4 76.9 95.8 Unit Value Index 100 96 109 95 453 329 200 229 167 208 Karakul - 1000 Pelts 1903 1424 1693 1735 2134 1189 957 827 838 1114 Volume Index 100 75 89 91 112 62 50 43 44 59 Total Value Afs Nil. 1077.6 629.1 982.8 858.0 1483.5 1269.8 960.5 707.0 610.0 1137.2 Value Index 100 58 91 80 138 118 89 66 57 106 Value Afs/Pelt 566 442 580 495 695 1068 1004 855 728 1021 Unit Value Index 100 78 102 87 123 189 177 151 129 180 Hides and Skins - 1000 1752 1902 2375 1628 2336 2074 2323 2118 3242 3246 Units Volume Index 100 109 136 93 133 118 133 121 185 185 Total Value Afs Nil. 155.1 152.1 195.9 173.8 265.1 252.9 339.9 417.3 664.4 643.0 Value Index 100 98 126 112 155 163 219 269 428 415 Value Afs/Unit 88.5 80.0 82.5 106.7 113.5 122.0 146.3 197.0 204.9 198.1 Unit Value Index 100 90 93 121 128 138 165 223 232 224 Wool and Fine Hair-Tons 3716 5437 5225 5207 6075 4345 3294 4040 5628 4991 Volume Iadex 100 146 141 140 163 117 89 109 151 134 Total Value Afs Nil. 367.2 520.7 509.4 622.2 673.8 476.5 343.6 364.5 467.1 393.3 Value Index 100 142 139 169 183 130 94 99 127 107 Value Afs/Kg 98.8 95.6 97.5 119.5 110.9 109.7 104.3 90.2 83.0 78.8 Unit Value Index 100 97 99 121 112 111 106 91 84 80 Carpets and Rugs 1000 H2 - - - 395 487 574 512 543 436 739 Volume Index . _ _ 100 123 145 130 137 110 187 Total Value MA Mil. - - - 550.6 679.1 877.2 889.3 1184.7 980.6 1266.7 Value Index - - - 100 123 159 162 215 178 230 Value Afs/M2 _ _ _ 1394 1394 1528 173T 2182 2249 1714 Unit Value Index - - - 100 100 110 125 157 161 123 Value of Total Exports-Mil. 66.4 71.8 81.7 85.1 99.7 124.5 159.1 230.6 235.5 293.4 Value Index 100 108 123 66.4 150 188 240 347 355 442 Value of Livestock 26.4 22.1 29.1 26.5 36.7 36.1 44.2 45.8 49 65.6 Products Includint Carpets and Rugss(il. Value Index 100 84 110 100 139 137 167 173 186 248 Value of Livestock 40 31 36 31 37 29 28 20 21 22 Exports as Percentage of Total Export Value-. Source: Central Statistics Office Kay, 1978  - 3 - to families with cows, although sheep and goat milk is available in rural areas during spring. Sheep numbers fell by about 40% during the two-year drought (1971-72), and the subsequent building up of flocks has reduced numbers available for slaughter and karakul pelt exports. The build-up in flock numbers took another set back in 1976-77 when drought in the north again caused high losses. Although cattle are maintained primarily as draft animals, they also provide milk and milk products, meat and hides. Camels provide transportation, milk and meat, particularly amongst nomads, while donkey transport is also important. Poultry husbandry is almost entirely backyard scavenging while efforts to expand intensive commercial poultry production have so far made little progress. Estimated livestock numbers and production which probably overstate the meat and milk position are shown in Table 2. Table 2: ANIMAL NUMBERS AND PRODUCTION 1976/77 1977/78 /a ------millions----- A. Numbers Cattle 3.7 3.42 Of which: Milk Cows 1.1 1.026 Sheep 21.2 19.4 Of which: Karakuls 6.2 4.8 Goats 3.0 3.0 -----1,000 tons---- B. Production Cow Meat 62.3 106.3 Sheep Meat 92.2 97.3 Goat Meat 25.0 25.2 Other Meat 6.8 7.1 Milk from Cows 600 508 Milk from Sheep and Goats 261 211 Wool 25.4 28.3 ----1,000 pieces--- Karakul Skins 1,584 2,360 Hides (Horses and Cows) 566 966 Skins (Sheep and Goats) 1,200 1,200 Casings 4,600 4,900 /a Estimates. Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Planning Department  -4- C. Animal Husbandry 1/ 1.03 Afghan animal husbandry comprises mainly extensive pastoral sheep and goat production, with cattle being restricted principally to irrigated areas, primarily to provide work oxen. Livestock of some kind are found on most farms. Husbandry techniques are well adapted to the harsh environment, but productivity is low as nutrition is poor and disease and parasite control lacking. Agricultural practices in Afghanistan are largely traditional with no more than 15% of farmers presently using chemical fertilizer. Total usage in 1977/78 was 100,000 tons representing about 26 kg per ha cropped which is verv low compared to neighboring developing countries. The outstanding livestock husbandry feature is the extensive pastoral system dominated by the seasonal sheep and goat flock migration between winter grazing on the semi- arid plains, and summer mountain pastures. Well adapted husbandry and asso- ciated breeds and varieties of livestock and crops have enabled farmers to gain a subsistence living from a difficult agricultural environment. The 12 million rural population live in about 20,000 villages, containing more than 1.2 million farm families in the low-land valleys and plains, which also provide winter bases for about 200,000 nomadic families. About 2.8 2/ million irrigated hectares provide 85 percent of all food and industrial crops, while crop residues supply a proportion of livestock winter feed. The total land area of about 65 million ha includes about 8 million arable ha, of which only about half is planted annually, due to lack of irrigation water and the need to fallow rainfed areas. Over 40 million ha of grazing is barely sufficient, even in years of 'normal' precipitation, to meet minimum livestock feed requirements. II. LIVESTOCK IN THE SEVEN-YEAR PLAN 3/ A. Plan Goals 2.01 The previous Government launched a Seven-Year Plan (1976-77 to 1982- 83) for Social and Economic Development. The Plan proposed an Af 41 billion 1/ For a detailed description of types and characteristics of Afghan sheep and cattle, see 'Planning Study of the Agricultural Sector of Afghanistan, (Vol III, Part II, pages 33-55), Robert R. Nathan Associates Inc., Washington, D.C. December 1971. 2/ Estimates of irrigable land vary widely; of irrigable area only 50-70% is irrigated in any one year, depending on water availability. 3/ The new Afghan Government suspended this Plan in April, 1978; discussion on its content is included in order to provide some background and pers- pective of past development planning in the livestock sub-sector; a new 5-year Development Plan was still under preparation when this survey was finalized.  -5- (US$1.03 billion) program in agriculture and irrigation including livestock, with the objectives of increased output and foreign exchange earnings, higher living standards especially for small farmers, and greater rural resource mobilization. Despite the subsector's estimated 25-30% contribution to GNP, only 5% of the total proposed development expenditure for agriculture and irrigation was allocated to livestock (Table 3). While food self-sufficiency was an important goal, emphasis was placed on cash crops, especially sugar beet and cotton. Virtually, all output growth (about 4.6 percent per annum) was dependent upon productivity increases and more intensive farming methods. The plan projected a fivefold increase in fertilizer use, a fourfold rise in cotton improved seed use, 23 times more use of plant protection chemicals and a threefold increase in agricultural credit. 2.02 The plan recognized the need to increase livestock production to meet population expansion demands. The major livestock subsector objectives included increasing export earnings and meat supply through sheep development, reducing animal losses by increasing forage cultivation, water supply and shelter provision, and increasing the livestock owner's income. A plan feature was the targeted production for annual increases of 3.5% in sheep and goat numbers, 3% increase in cattle numbers, and annual production increases including meat 7.6 percent, milk 4.3 percent, wool 3.2 percent and karakul pelts 4 percent. 2.03 The development strategy for increasing animal numbers and produc- tion was based on improving animal health protection, expanding research centers, increasing industrial by-product utilization, improving extension and credit services, providing water supply facilities and shelters, and strengthening the Karakul Institute. Prophylactic animal treatment would increase from about 6.3 million to 11.6 million per annum, an 84% total increase or a little over 9% per annum. B. Programs and Projects 2.04 The plan included the continuation of the First and Second, IDA sup- ported Livestock Projects 1/ in Northwestern Afghanistan, which are designed to increase sheep production, and tap the rich Middle Eastern markets with mutton processed through a modern export standard slaughterhouse. These projects are supported by production components including on-farm development, increasing forage production through groundwater exploitation, extensive veterinary support programs, and sheep improvement center establishment to serve the nomadic and transhumant flocks. 2.05 Karakul sheep development was to be achieved by increasing sheep numbers on Government breeding farms, reviving karakul cooperatives, strengthen- ing the Karakul Institute, and providing credit to flock owners for financing improved sire and winter feed purchases. The plan included provision for a 1/ IDA credits 375-AF and 649-AF, Report Nos. 56a-AF, March 1973, 1043-AF, May 1976.  -6- Table 3. AGRICULTURE AND IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES (Af billion) Total Budget 7-Year Plan (1969T70-1975/76) (1976/77) (1976/77-1982/83) Ministry of Agriculture, Total 4,059 788.85 7,660 including: Cooperatives and Extension 1,272 197.33 1,944 Crop Development 516 173.08 1,928 Livestock Development 278 101.08 995 Seeds and Fertilizers - 70.93 860 Regional Projects: Kunar 87 67.95 450 Nagarhar 1,906 237.30 1,719 Paktia 1,494 111.17 804 Agricultural Bank 611 271.80 1,450 Herat Livestock Devt. Corporation 68 126.00 1,103 Ministry of Water and Power: 2,368 1,392.00 19,318 Irrigation Construction 244 82.00 585 Irrigation Surveys 814 763.00 12,087 Helmand and Argandab Devt. Authority Total Irrigation 3,426 2,237.00 31,990 Rural Development Dept. 521 140.00 1,362 Total Agriculture and Irrigation 8,006 3,165.85 41,012 National TOTAL 29,175 14,027.00 174,435 Agriculture and Irrig tion (percentage of total)'