Liberia - Current economic situation and prospects

Report No. 2662-LBR Liberia on mm Current Economic Situation and Prospects December 28, 1979 West Africa FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.   FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ................................... - v I. CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION .................................1 A. Economic Performance 1974-78 ..........................1 B. Investment and Savings ................................ 5 C. Public Finance ........................................ 8 D. Balance of Payments ................................... 14 E. External Debt ......................................... 17 F. Prices and Monetary Development ....................... 20 II. DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AND FUTURE PROSPECTS ...... ............. 23 A. First Development Plan ................................ 23 B. Planning Process ...................................... 27 C. Second Development Plan ............................... 29 D. Future Prospects ...................................... 35 III. SELECTED DEVELOPMENT ISSUES ................................ 41 A. Public Administration ................................. 41 B. Manpower and Employment ............................... 45 C. Income Distribution ................................... 49 D. Health, Population and Nutrition ...................... 52 E. Rice Policy ........................................... 56 Annex I. Review of Major Sectors Annex II. Rural Development Administration Statistical Appendix This report is written by Mr. Ishrat Husain based on the findings of an Economic Mission consisting of Ms. Aynur Uluatam and Mr. Ishrat Husain which visited Liberia in May 1979. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. IU contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.   Paae 1 of 2 volI!C.IIC INDICVTO!S - LIBERIA GROSS NATI0ONAL PRODUC. IN 1978 ANNUAL RATE OF nR0oTm (% 1977 C0NSTANT PRICES) US$ M2n. _ 1974-77 1978 GNP at Market Prices 807.8 100.0 2.3 6.7 Gross Domestic Investment 253.0 31.3 13.7 6.8 Gross National Saving 101.7 12.6 39 -9.2 Current Account Balance -100.1 12.4 Exports of Goods, NFS 500.1 61.9 -6.6 8.0 Imports of Goods, NFS 544.6 67.4 4.3 9.9 OUTTPUT, LAB3R F!ORCE AND .ROXD7171ITY Dn 1978 Value Added Labor For1c / V. A. PA- Wt;rkar USS O.n. US $ i Agriculture 283.7 35.0 482.2 70.5 588.3 49.6 Industry 2/ 168.8 20.8 30.8 4.5 5480.5 462.8 Services 358.5 44.2 73.8 10.8 4857.7 410.2 Unallocated 92.2 14.2 Total/Average 810.0 100.0 TM 100.0 1184.2 100.0 GOV=2UrNDO FflANC General Government Central Government : Mln.) fi of C3P rUSS Mln.) 'r of$ ODP 197 12 196 -7 1_78-79 197T 174_77'- Current Receipts .. .. .. 190.8 23.5 22.5 Carrent Expenditure .. .. 154.0 19.0 14.4 Current Surplus .. .. 36.8 4.5 8. Capital Expenditures .. .. .. 159.5 19.7 14.4 External Assistance (net) .. .. 60.4 9.4 4.0 W5NEY, CRDIT and PRICES 174 197' 1976 1977 1978 ThilJJ.on US$ o7ltstanding and period) Money and Quasi Money Bank credit to Public Sector 4.0 c.2 0.9 4.7 9.4 Bank Credit to Private Sector 72.7 76.8 83.1 109.2 132.1 (Percentages or Index Numbers) Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP General Price Index (1963 - 100) 3/ Armual percentage changes inj General Price Index 19.5 13.6 6.o 5.8 8.6 Bank credit to Public Sector . _45.0 -59.1 422.2 100.0 Bank credit to Private Sector .. 5.6 8.2 31.4 20.9 NOTE: All corTversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. 1/ Total labor force; unemployed are allocated to sector of their normal occupetion. "Unallocated" consists mainly of unemployed wcrkers seeking their first job. _! Over 80, is accounted for by iron ore. 3/ Consumer Price Index (Sepe, Nov. 1964-100) not available .tot applicable  PaKe 2 of 2 TRADE PAXMZNTS AND CAPITAL FW0RS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1976-78) BALANCE OF PAYMENTS US $ Mln % 1976 1977 1978 (Millions US$) Iron ore 292.2 62.8 Exports of Goods, NFS 467.1 459.0 500.1 Rubber 60.5 13.0 Imports of Goods, NFS -446.2 -521.9 -544.6 Diamonds 22.7 4.9 Resource Gap (deficit=-) 20.9 -62.9 -44.5 Lugs 6r Lumber 29.5 6.3 Coffee 25.0 5.3 Interest Payments (net) -4.7 -6.7 -10.1 Palm Products 3.7 0.8 Workers' Remittances -25.0 -27.5 -32.5 Cocoa 8.2 1.8 Other Factor Payments (net) -86.0 -80.0 -79.0 All other commodities 13.1 2.8 Net Transfers 34.9 29.4 32.2 Total 464.9 100.0 Balance on Current Account -59.8 -148.8 -134.7 Direct Foreign Investment 91.4 51.3 13.3 EXENAL DEBT, DECE'2ER 31.1978 Net MLT Borrowing 17.5 37.6 63.3 US $ Mln Disbursements 32.6 57.5 76.8 Abortization -15.1 -19.9 -13.5 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 341.5 Subtotal 108.9 88.9 76.6 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Other Items n.e.i. -11.1 51.1 30.0 Total outstanding & Disburse; 341.5 Increase in Re_erves (+) -38.0 8.8 28.1 DE1 SERVICE RATIO for Gross Reserves (end year) Net Reserves (end year).. . Public Debt. incl. guaranteed 6.1 Fuel and Related Materials 59.5 68.8 84.6 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Imports Total outstanding & Disbursed of which: Petroleum Exports of which: Petroleum .,RD/IDA TZNDING. (DECEIJ3ER 31, l978) CMILLI0N US3): IBRD IDA RATE OF ZX1{ANGE Outstanding & Disbursed 43.8 13.1 Through - 197L Since - 1971 Undisbursed 55.9 22.8 US i 1.00 ' 1.00 UT $ 1.o00 1 00 Outstanding incl. Undisbursed 35.9 1.00 US $ 1.00 US $ 1/ Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services. August 1979 not available not applicable  0 a. 2 . !>__><O _ q__ __ q-_ -_ or 11__ -_t ._ Y~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ _ d~ A d~~~~~~~~ t eu ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ASO - 4 e - F eo v nnb Sn S S*** *-g... . . _ ~ e :3 13 *