Sri Lanka - The 1973 economic outlook

FUR -F COPY DOCUMENT OF INTlRNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTI!ON AND DEVELOPMENI INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Not For Public Use Rport t4o. 47a-CE THE 1973 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR SRI LANKA January 23, 1973 South Asia Department This report was prepared for ofriciat use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published, quoted I or cited without Bank Group authorization. The bank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuiracy or completeness of the report.  Currency Equivalents 1972 US$1.00 - Rs 6.40 Ks 1.OO = US$0.16 Rs 1 mil. - US$156,000 1973 US$1.00 - Rs 6.73 Rs 1.00 Uw'S$0.15 Rs 1 mil. - US$147,000 Foreign Exchange Entitlement Certificate (FEEC) Rate 1972 US$1.00 = Rs 9.92 (55X FEEC) 1973 US$1.00 = Rs 11.19 (65% FEEC) Tnis report is based on the findings of a mission which visited Sri Lanka from November 15 to 25, 1972. The mission consisted of Mr. R. Hablutzel (Chief) and 'Ir. A. Premchand (DIF).  TABLE OF ODNTENTS Page No. BASIC DATA SUHAHY AND wDNCLUSIONS ...... .................... i-illi iNTIRODuCIION' ............................................ 1 1.TDS IN PDlUCION AND GPnTH ............ 1 Export Crops ............,.,.,.,........ 2 GDP in 1972 .......... ....................... 2 Savings and Investment ...... ................ 4 Employment .......... ........................ 5 Economic Development ...... .................. 5 II. GOVERNMENT FINANCE ............................... 6 Developmente in 1972. 6 The Setting for the 1973 Budget. 8 The 1973 Budget Estirmates ................... , Assessment of the 1973 Budget ...... ......... i1 III. BALANCE OF PAYrMNEIS OULLUOOK ...................... ' 3 EAports ........, 13 Imworts ...... . . . ... 14 Overall Balance of Payments for 1973 .... .... 16 STATISTICAL APPENDIX  Area: 65,607 k2 Population: 1972 13.1 million Rate ofVroto t. 1965-721e 20 3 - Populastion density; (per sq km. to total .v 200 to arable land (1964 ) 3.033 Officia.i Eatiaates;Ftission Estimate Gross National Product: (1971) As. 12,677 million T t current market prices) Rate of growtb at constant prices (1971) 0.9% Rate of grovwth a eonstant prices :198-1971) 3.2% GIIP per capita (US$ equivalent) (1971) $162 $110 tA T...tle P,..,A,rt at Pato,t CO..t I_107 1 Ra. 9.856 million Of which (): Asriculture 34 eanufacturing 15 Construction 6 transport and Ccunication 9 Trade 13 Otber Services 23 ( Average) L of GNP at Itrket Price. (Officisl Estimates "11 197i 1,61-70 Gross investment 17.2 15.1 Cross savings 16.1 12.9 BL-ance of Psye ts current .^ccUnt defricit 1.121 2. 5_/ Iovetetnt incoe payments 1.1 o.6 Government revenue 21.1 21.5 July 1. i972 Averge An Cnu nane) Ra. million 1 11 Total mooy supply 2,111 5.3 Tim and savings deposits .313 13.4 Bank credit to public sector (net) J,171 51.3 Comrvial ak creuit to private e otor (sro .) 910 10.0 11ev. Lstimates Aversc Anna IChange I 197-7 9c O!b1-71/72 fps. million) Publlc Sector Operations Government current receipts 3,070 t 6 Government current expenditure 3,053 7.3 Surplus/Deficit 17 Irregular Government capital expeaditure 9l1 5.3 Total external asistance to public sector (net) 317 25.0 r.t.rna.l ruubl,c rebt ku; SltiPi0a Jux 17- 9 Total debt outstanding (including IMP drawings) USS zallion 618 304 Debt service ratio to exrort earninr. (excludiAnz 1972 (est.) o68 LN7 repuchases 13th Short-term Debt (less th 1 year) ISS nl!licn 71 Balance of Pyents (USS million) I2t 1971 1970 1A9 Total exports 321 330 335 321 Total imports 366 376 392 446 Curent invlalbles (not) -13 -7 -20 -17 Set current account balanc- -52 -59 -77 -1!2 Increase ln exchAge reserves I-) -' -24 -5 54 C 1dity Concentration of Eoorte 1972 1961-66 lAverage) Tea, rubber, coconut products (3 r.Jor exports) 85S 93S Rtcbane Reserves NUOS million) 1972 1971 197D 1969 1961-66 (June) (Average) Liquid Balances Abroad 1.9 2.T 4.. 2.6 14 IX? dravings outstanding 99 85 80 105 29 ftto