HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic growth prospects for Mozambique

: I~ HIV/AID-S, Human Capital., and Economic Growth rrospecto for Mozamlbique Chariming Arrndt February 2005 O$II) The World Bank 0  K IEIllV/umaICn9 flfl, fl Cgdptmll9 kld1 nmwll Prr$pe$ fou rica ir1egzon Woirking Pnaper Sernies No. 41 IFebruanry 2003 J sing a computable general equilibrium causes of the growth slowdown are reduced Wmodelling approach, the author finds productivity growth, reduced population that the Mozambican economy will be 14% growth and human capital accumulation, and to 20% smaller in 2010 on account of AIDS. reduced physical accumulation. Mitigating Per capita GDP growth will be between and preventive policy responses are 0.3% and 1.0% lower per annum. The main proposed in Africa. Aunhor Channing Arndt Associate Professor Department of Agricultural Economics and Center for Global Trade Analysis Perdue University E-mail: <caindt@purdue.edu> The Africa Region Working Paper Series expedites dissemination of applied research and policy studies uith potential for improving economic performance and social conditions in Sub-Saharan Afiica. The Series publishes papers at preliminary stages to stimzilate timely discuzssion witihin the Region and among client countries, donors, and the policy research commtmiuni The editorial boardfor the Series consists of representatives fron professional families appointed by the Region's Sector Directors. F'or additional inJbrination, please contact Pauila Wh/iite, nmanaging editor of the series, (81731), Email: pwhite2'dworldhank.org or visit the Web site: http://wwiw. worldbank. ore/afr/iyps/index. htm. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s), they do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank Group, its Executive Dl[irectors, or the countries they represent and should not be attributed to them.  HIV/AIDS, Human Capital, and Economic Growth Prospects for Mozambique Channing Arndt February 2003  AcklEswkedge