中国加入世界贸易组织的经济影响

.) PS 3' POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER 3 053 Economic Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization Elena Ianchovichina William Martin The World Bank Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network P D Economic Policy Division and Development Research Group Trade May 2003  POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER 3053 Abstract lanchovichina and Martin present estimates of the relative to farm incomes. Reduction in agricultural impact of accession by China and Chinese Taipei to the protection may hurt some farmers. World Trade Organization. China is estimated to be the Possible policy changes considered to offset these biggest beneficiary, followed by Chinese Taipei and their impacts include reductions in barriers to labor mobility major trading partners. Accession will boost the labor- and improvements in rural education. The authors intensive manufacturing sectors in China, especially the estimate that the removal of the hukou system would textiles and apparel sector that will benefit directly from raise farm wages and allow 28 million workers to the removal of quotas on textiles and apparel exports to migrate to nonfarm jobs. If, in addition, there is an North America and Western Europe. Consequently, increase in education spending that results in a developing economies competing with China in third percentage point increase in the annual skilled labor markets may suffer relatively small losses. China has growth rate, approximately 32 million farm workers already benefited from the reforms undertaken between would leave their job for jobs in the nonfarm sectors. 1995 and 2001 (US$31 billion) and trade reforms after These policies would not only facilitate the evolution of accession will lead to additional gains of around $US10 China's economy toward high-technology manufacturing billion. Accession will have important distributional and services, they have the potential to much more than consequences for China, with wages of skilled workers offset any negative impacts of accession on rural wages and unskilled nonfarm workers rising in real terms and and rural incomes generally. This paper-a joint product of the Economic Policy Division, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network and Trade, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the Bank to assess the impact of China's WTO accession. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Sarah Lipscomb, room MC4-404, telephone 202-458-7266, fax 202-522-2530, email address slipscomb@worldbank.org. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://econ.worldbank.org. The authors may be contacted at eianchovichina@worldbank.org or wmartinl@worldbank.org. May 2003. (38 pages) The Policy Researcb Working Paper Sees dssemdnates the findngs of work ign progress to encourage the exchange of tdeas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polisbed. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in thts paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessanly represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Produced by Partnerships, Capacity Building, and Outreach  Economic Impacts of China's Accession to the WTO by Elena Ianchovichina