阿根廷经济增长的恢复

Restoring Economic Growth in Argentina* William R. Cline** Center for Global Development and Institute for International Economics June 2003 World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3158, October 2003 The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at http://econ.worldbank.org. * This study was prepared under the auspices of Economics International, Inc. The author is grateful for financial support from General Motors Corporation, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, and the World Bank. For helpful discussions during the preparation of the manuscript, he thanks Daniel Artana, Juan Luis Bour, Emilio Cardenas, Javier Finkman, Miguel Kiguel, Minister of Economy Roberto Lavagna, Daniel Marx, Guillermo Mondino, former central bank president Pedro Pou, central bank president Alfonso Prat-Gay, Andrew Powell, and Federico Sturzenegger. For comments on a previous draft, he thanks Emilio Cardenas, Mario Gutierrez, Javier Finkman, Daniel Marx, Atsushi Masuda, Guillermo Perry, Andrew Powell, Luis Serven, Mario Teijeiro, Edwin M. Truman, and John Williamson. None of these individuals is responsible for any shortcomings remaining in this study. ** Joint Senior Fellow. Dr. Cline has previously been Deputy Managing Director and Chief Economist for the Institute of International Finance (1996-2001), and Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics (1982-1995) and Brookings Institution (1973-1981).  2 Contents Summary ..................................................................... 3 I. Introduction .................................................................... 8 II. Origins of the crisis ...................................................... 10 A. Principal diagnoses ........................................ 11 B. Fiscal imbalance and debt sustainability ......... 13 C. The currency board and overvaluation ............ 19 D. External shocks ............................................... 28 E. Political shocks ............................................... 30 F. The Role of the IMF ....................................... 35 III. A year in perdition: 2002 .......................................... 39 A. Overview ......................................................... 39 B. Output and inflation ........................................ 41 C. The external sector .......................................... 43 D. The deposit freeze and pesification ................ 44 E. Fiscal performance ......................................... 46 F. Monetary policy .............................................. 47 IV. Immediate challenges ................................................ 49 A. Avoiding high inflation .................................. 49 B. Refurbishing the financial sector .................... 52 C. Restructuring government debt ...................... 57 D. Maintaining the social safety net ................... 64 V. Strategies for the longer term ................................... 66 A. Baseline growth prospects and challenges ... 66 B. Fiscal reform .................................................. 68 C. Reforming provincial revenue sharing .......... 77 D. Exchange rate regime .................................... 80 E. Trade policy ................................................... 86 F. Rules of the game for foreign direct investment 90 G. Labor market reform ...................................... 92 H. Political Institutions ....................................... 94 VI. Conclusion ............................................................... 97 Annex A. Conditions for Fiscal Sustainability .................... 99 Annex B. The Analytics of Restructuring Government Debt 101 Annex C. Evaluating the 2001 Megaswap .......................... 103 References ........................................................................... 105  3 Summary Economic potential