Tajikistan - Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation Project

Report No. PID7736 Project Name Tajikistan-Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation... Project Region Europe and Central Asia Sector ESSD/ Natural Resources Management Project ID TJPE65794 Borrower Government of Tajikistan Implementing Agency To be defined Date PID Prepared May 20, 1999 Projected Appraisal to be defined Projected Board Date to be defined Background 1. Country and Sector Background In 1911 an earthquake-triggered landslide blocked the course of river Murgab at the Usoi site in the Eastern Pamir range of Tajikistan. The 650 m high, natural dam progressively impounded a lake with a volume of about 17 billion m3 (half the volume of Lake Geneva) at an altitude of 3,300 m. There are increasing and founded concerns about the stability of the landslide dam which is holding the lake. The consequences of a lake outburst flood would have catastrophic consequences in Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The Bank's main country assistance goal as indicated in the CAS is to provide direct support to the most vulnerable groups in the Tajikistan' society. Such groups are identified in the CAS as: located in isolated mountainous areas and lacking adequate shelter. The project is targeted to such groups. The social component will also bring collateral benefits to these isolated parts of the civil society of Tajikistan. The territory of Tajikistan is very prone to natural hazards. Lake Sarez probably constitutes the most dangerous of such hazards. The GOT is highly committed in preventing a disaster associated with the lake. Any step in mitigating the risk posed by the lake is going to impact not only Tajikistan, but a large part of the Central Asia Region. The problem has therefore a regional relevance. 2. Objectives The project will: (1) design and install a community-based monitoring and early warning system; and, (2) collate existing studies, formulate a risk assessment, rank potential disaster prevention options and formulate recommendations. This project represent an initial, fast-track operation of modest size compared with the magnitude of the problem. The project will limit itself to addressing the most immediate needs while seeking longer-term solutions to this complex issue. A part from such studies, disaster prevention is not within the scope of the present project. 3. Description  The proposed risk mitigation project is based on non-structural measures along the following 3 components: Component Description Monitoring / Design, procure, install and test suitable monitoring Early Warning (lake levels, leakage rates, landslide movements, System (EWS) crest settlement, etc.) and early warning systems. Training of the organization responsible for the O&M of the system. Provide funds for O&M of the system over a period of 3 years. Community based Provide basic, safety-related supply/ assistance/ EWS training on EWS to the most vulnerable populations. Strengthen "naturally-sheltered areas" which can provide assistance to the rest of the population under emergency situations. Train communities in the maintenance of the system. Studies on long- Review existing studies, screen alternatives and term solutions develop a pre-feasibility study for the regulation of the lake levels for safety and productive (hydropower, water supply, etc.) purposes. 4. Financing The cost of the project is expected to be US$ 4 million to be refined after pre-appraisal mission. Donors funding is being sought. Details to be determined Sources of funds to be defined. Donors conference scheduled in the second half of 1999 in conjunction with the Secretariat for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (UN-IDNDR). 5. Implementation Pre-appraisal mission: June 1999 Appraisal mission: to be defined Board presentation: to be defined Project duration: 2 years 6. Sustainability Community participation (social component) Studies for long term solutions 7. Lessons learned from past operations in the country/sector Non-structural measures can be implemented more rapidly and at a much lower cost than the structural ones. In the light of disaster prevention, the former should not be regarded as a substitute for the latter. A sound safety program should balance structural and non-structural measures. Non-structural measures can play an important role in mitigating the consequences of a disaster. They also play a fundamental role in assuring sustainability of any rehabilitation work. In order to prevent a disaster from happening, structural measures are required. Therefore a pre-feasibility study is necessary that would critically -2 -  review and integrate the past studies to come out with a ranking of the options to make Lake Sarez environmentally sustainable (third component of the project). The social component must play a central role in the project. No engineering solution for mitigating the risk in the short term is going to work if awareness and preparedness of the people at risk is not adequately promoted. In planning an emergency response to a potential flood, it is critical that those villages that may survive, either in whole or in part, be identified and incorporated in the planning as intermediate "safe havens" to which flood survivors may go to await outside assistance. The implementing agency (not yet identified) must be strengthened to enable it to respond to a disaster of the scale of the potential Lake Sarez flood. Such a capacity building effort will have to be parallel to that being developed at local community level, under the social component, and fully integrated with it. In view of the complexity of the lake Sarez problem, it is considered necessary that the GOT appoints a Panel of Experts (POE) to review, steer and advise on the implementation of the project. The POE should be retained by the GOT to act as an high level advisory group on future interventions that the Republic of Tajikistan, with the support of the international community, will pursue in relation to the Lake Sarez problem. 8. Poverty Category Very nearly all of the target population have very low incomes. Most in Afghanistan are subsistence farmers. In Tajikistan people in the vulnerable communities are mainly farmers with below-subsistence productivity levels and workers who are underemployed. Most of those who are employed (e.g. school teachers, mechanics, health workers) are seldom paid. The especially vulnerable people among this poor population, such as children and the elderly, are the ones for whom it is most important to cache survival equipment and supplies, as they will be least likely to survive on barren mountainsides. 9. Environmental Aspects Lake Sarez itself is a potential environmental catastrophe The project aims at mitigating the risk of a potential environmental catastrophe; as such, it is negatively correlated with the environmental impact concept. Only non-structural measures are envisaged, thus no physical impact is expected during implementation. 10. Program Objective Categories Environmentally Sustainable Development/ Natural Resource Management 11. Contact Point: The InfoShop The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone No. (202)458 5454 Fax No. (202) 522 1500 Note: This is information on an evolving project. Certain activities and/or components may not be included in the final project. - 3 -  Processed by the InfoShop week ending May 29, 1999. - 4 -