Argentina - El Nino Emergency Flood Project

Document of The World Bank Report No. T 7209 AR TECHNICAL ANNEX ARGENTINA El NINO EMERGENCY FLOOD PROJECT December 23, 1997 Finance, Private Sector and Infrastructure SMU Country Management Unit 7 Latin America and the Caribbean Region  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (November 20, 1997) Currency Unit = Peso (Arg$) US$1.00 = Arg$1.00 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS USED ENSO - El Nilto Southern Oscillation GoA - Government of Argentina IBRD - International Bank for Reconstruction and Development JEXIM - The Export-Import Bank of Japan MERCOSUR - Common Market Agreement among Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay PG - Provincial Governments POM - Project Operational Manual SAFP - Secretaria de Asistencia Financiera a las Provincias Secretariat for Financial Assistance to the Provinces of the Borrower's Ministry of Interior SST - Sea Surface Temperature SUCCE - Sub- Unidad Central de Coordinaci6n para la Emergencia Central Sub-Unit for the Coordination for Emergencies SUPCE - Sub- Unidad Provincial de Coordinacion para la Emergencia Provincial Sub-Unit for the Coordination for Emergencies UEC - Unidad Ejecutiva Central Central Executing Unit Vice President: Shahid Javed Burki Country Director: Myrna Alexander Sector Director: Sri-Ram Aiyer Team Leader: Abel Mejia The Memorandum and Recommendation of the President and the accompanying technical annex for this operation was prepared based on the findings of a mission by the Government of Argentina to Washington during November 13-24, 1997. The core project preparation team consisted of Abel Mejia, LCSFP (Team Leader), Adrien Campbell (LCSFP), Juan David Quintero (LCSES), Ede Isazz (LCSES) and Reynaldo Pastor and Ferenc Molnar (LEGLA). Gloria Bernero (LCSFP) provided administrative support. Argentine team members: Jorge Acosta, Rogelio Vincenti, Juan Carlos Gimenez, Philip Sopher, Roberto Bergman, Ruben Perry and Daniel Barrientos. The management team for this operation includes: Regional Vice President: Shahid Javed Burki, CMU Director: Myrna Alexander, Sector Director: Sri-Ram Aiyer, Sector Leader: Asif Faiz and Lead Economist: John Underwood. Peer reviewers are: Armando Araujo (OCSPR), Eugene McCarthy and Maria Victoria Lister (LCSFP); and external peer reviewer: Juan B. Valdes, Civil Engineering Department Head at the University of Arizona.  ARGENTINA EL NINO EMERGENCY FLOOD PROJECT LOAN AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Argentine Republic Implementing Agencies: Sub-Unidad Central de Coordinacion para la Emergencia- Unidad Ejecutora Central de la Secretaria de Asistencia a las Provincias, Ministry of the Interior, and the Beneficiary Provinces Poverty Category: Not applicable Program Objective Category: Emergency Assistance Loan Environment Category: B Loan Amount: US$42.0 million (including up to US$8.0 million of retroactive financing) Terms: Repayment in 15 years, including five years of grace, at the Bank's standard interest rate for LIBOR-based U.S. dollar single currency loans Commitment Fee: 0.75% on undisbursed loan balances Estimated Costs: Protection Phase Rehabilitation Phase Northwestern Provinces US$15.0 m. US$20.0 m. Littoral Provinces US$25.0 m. TOTAL US$15.0 m. US$45.0 m. Financing Plan: IBRD PG Total Northwestern Provinces US$26.2 m. US$8.8 m. US$35.0 m. Littoral Provinces US$15.8 m. US$9.2 m. US$25.0 m. TOTAL US$42.0 m. US$18.0 m. US$60.0 m. Estimated Rate of Return: Not applicable Map: IBRD-29272 Project Identification Number: AR-PE-55935   ARGENTINA EL NI19O EMERGENCY FLOOD PROJECT TECHNICAL ANNEX TABLE OF CONTENTS Paee No. L Background and Strategy 1 A. El Nifo impact in Argentina ........... ..1.......... B. Government strategy . .............. . 4 C. Lessons learned from previous projects .................. 5 D. Rationale for Bank assistance ...................... 5 II. The Project 6 A. Objective ......................... . 6 B. Preparation ........... ............ 6 C. Description ...... ............ .............. 7 D. Cost . . . ................................. 9 E. Financing ..... 9 F. Environment . . ... 10 G. Risks ...... 10 HI. Project Implementation 11 A. Arrangements .. 11 B. Eligibility criteria for sub-projects .................... 11 C. Project supervision and review ...................... 13 D. Procurement ..... ........... ............... 13 E. Disbursement . . . 15 F. Retroactivefinancing ........................... 15 G. Financial managment and auditing ..................... 15 H. Reporting .................. 16 I. Monitoring, impact and performance indicators ....... ...... 16 J. Project Operational Manual ....................... 17 IV. Agreements 17  APPENDICES Paee No. Appendix 1: Miscellaneous El Nifio graphs, maps and tables. 18 Appendix 2: El Nifio and Paranki'Paraguay flooding correlation 22 Appendix 3: Report on impacts of El Nifio in Argentina by Professor 23 Juan Valdes (Head of Civil Engineering at University of Arizona). Appendix 4: List of meetings held by central and local governments in 48 response to the El Nifio phenomenon. Appendix 5: SUCCE participants in project preparation. 50 Appendix 6: List of financed (emergency loan and mobilized resources) 51 and non-financed (future loan) construction works in the regions. Appendix 7: Project description outline. 53 Appendix 8: Guidelines for Terms of Reference for consultants to 55 undertake a regional flood-risk zoning of the northwestern provinces. Appendix 9: Project Cost and Financing 57 Appendix 10: Project Operational Manual (POM) 60 Appendix 11: Proposed engineering design criteria. 62 Appendix 12: Bank supervision plan. 63 Appendix 13: Financial Management System 64 Appendix 14: Monitoring: Performance Indicators and Implementation 66 Plan  ARGENTINA EL NINO EMERGENCY FLOOD PROJECT TECHNICAL ANNEX L. BACKGROUND AND STRATEGY A. El Nifio Impact in Argentina 1. The El Niho Phenomenon. El Nifio is the biggest cause of climate variability in the world. El Niflo is Spanish for "Christ Child", given that name because of its early December manifestation in the coastal Pacific waters of Peru and Equador, where abnormally warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) often signal the beginning of positive SST anomalies over the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific. In parallel, there is an atmospheric phenomenon known as the Southern Oscillation, named and described by Sir Gilbert Walker, which consists of an east-west atmospheric pressure see-saw, causing changes in the Pacific trade winds, that directly affects tropical weather around the globe. Given that these two events occur in parallel, scientists refer to it as the El Nifno/Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO), though for simplicity, the event is generally referred to as El Nifio. 3. Normal conditions. El Nifio is a cyclical event that occurs every three to seven years and lasts for approximately two years. Each El Nifio has its own characteristics; no one observed cycle has repeated itself to date. During normal conditions the trade winds blow toward the west across the tropical Pacific. These winds pile up warm surface water in the western Pacific, so that the sea surface is about one-half meter higher at Indonesia than at Ecuador. The sea surface temperature is also about eight degrees Celsius (C) higher in the west, with cool temperatures off the Pacific coast of South America arising because of an upwelling of cold water from deeper ocean levels. This cold water is nutrient-rich, supporting high levels of primary productivity, diverse marine ecosystems, and major fisheries. Rainfall comes from the rising air over the warmest water, while the eastern Pacific is relatively dry. Observations have shown that the cool water (generally below about 170 C) is within 50 meters of the sea surface. 4. El Niuo conditions. During an El Nifio the prevailing low-pressure system over Indonesia moves eastward, weakening the high pressure system near South America (the difference in atmospheric pressure is measured between Darwin and Tahiti). As a result the easterly trade winds relax in the central and western Pacific. The water that has accumulated in the western Pacific now has no force holding it in place. The Pacific behaves like a bath tub that is suddenly lifted at one end, that is the warm surface water that has built up in the west slopes back eastward, reversing the direction of the sea surface current. Sea levels and SST off the coast of South America rise, and the thernocline (the temperature gradient between cold and warm water) is pushed down to a much deeper level, leading to a depression of the thermocline (known as a warm phase) in the eastern Pacific Ocean waters and an elevation of the thermocline in the west (Australia). Rainfall follows the warm water eastward, causing flooding in Peru, southern Brazil,  -2- and northern Argentina and draught in the western Pacific (Indonesia and Australia). The eastward discharge of the atmospheric heat source overlying the warmest waters result in large changes in the global atmospheric circulation, which in turn causes global climate variability. Weather anomalies occur all over the globe every year, but a distinctive few do tend to recur with most or all El Nifio events and are thus referred to as teleconnections (climate anomalies associated with El Nifno). 5. La Ninia conditions. At the end of the El Niflo cycle is an equally important occurrence: La Nifia. This event is marked by the injection of water that is colder than usual (a rise in the thermocline), causing the waters of the eastern Pacific to cool considerably. This event has the opposite impact of the El Nifo event, meaning droughts occur where floods once were and above-normal rainfall in draught areas, causing floods even in eastern Australia. 6. During the last century more than a dozen El Nifno events have affected the South American coast. Graph 1 of Appendix 1 shows the Multivariate ENSO Index, or MEI, (positive values indicate El Nifio) used by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency to illustrate the strength of the six strongest (measured) El Nifnos of the century. The milder El Nifio events raise water temperatures only a degree or two along the 5,000-mile equatorial Pacific band. The stronger events, like the El Nifio of 1982-83, raise temperatures 5-10