Senegal - Water Sector Project

Document of The World Bank Report No. 14008-SE STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT REPUBLIC OF SENEGAL WATER SECTOR PROJECT JUNE 12, 1995 Infrastructure Operations Division Western Africa Department Africa Region  ii CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency unit = CFA Franc (CFAF) US$1.0 = CFAF 535 (April 8, 1995) CFAF 1 million US$ 1,869 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 meter = 3.28 feet I hectare = 2.47 acres 1 kilometer = 0.625 miles 1 liter = 0.220 Imperial gallons I cubic meter = 220 Ig FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  iii ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AfDB African Development Bank AGCD/ABOS Agence Generale de Cooperation au Developpement / Algemeen Bestuur voor Ontwikkelingssamenwerking (General Agency for Cooperation to Development) -- Belgium AGETIP Agence d'Execution de Travaux d'Interet Public contre le sous-emploi (Agency for the execution of works in the public interest) BADEA Banque Arabe pour le Developpement Economique en Afrique (Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa) BISEPSE Banque Informatique de Suivi et d'Evaluation des Projets du Secteur Eau (Database for the monitoring and the evaluation of projects in the water sector) BEI Banque Europeenne d'Investissement (European Investment Bank) BOAD Banque Ouest Africaine de Developpement (West African Development Bank) BRGM Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Mines (Office Directorate of Mines and Geological Research) CAB Cellule Apres Barrages (Dam Unit) CFD Caisse Francaise de Developpement (French Development Bank) CONSERE Conseil Superieur de l'Environnement et des Ressources Naturelles (High Council or Environment and Natural Ressources) CSE Conseil Superieur de l'Eau (High Council on Water) CSS Compagnie Sucriere du Senegal (Sugar Company of Senegal) CTE Comite Technique de l'Eau (Technical Comittee on Water) DEM Direction de l'Exploitation et de la Maintenance des ouvrages d'hydraulique rurale (Directorate for the Use and Maintenance of Rural Water Works) DHA Direction de l'Hydraulique et de l'Assainissement (Directorate for Water Works and Sanitation) EDI Economic Development Institute of the World Bank GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product GREA Groupe Regional Eau et Assainissement (Regional Water and Sanitation Group) IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICB Intemational Competitive Bidding JICA Japan Intemational Cooperation Agency KfW Kreditanstalt fuir Wiederaufbau LCB Local Competitive Bidding LRMC Long-Run Marginal Cost MDR Ministere du Developpement Rural (Ministry of Rural Development) MEACC Mission d'Etude et d'Amenagement du Canal du Cayor (Survey and Planning Mission for the Cayor Canal) MEAVF Mission d'Etude et d'Amenagement des Vallees Fossiles (Survey and Planning for the Fossiles Valley) MEFP Ministere de l'Economie, des Finances, et du Plan (Ministry of the Economy, Financing, and Planning)  Iv MIS Management Information System NDF Nordic Development Fund NEAP National Environmental Action Plan OECF Organization for Economic Cooperation and Finance OMVS Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du Fleuve Senegal (Organlization for the Development of the Senegal River) ONAS Office National d'Assainissement urbain (National Office of Urban Sanitation) PDRE Plan Directeur du Developpement des Ressources en Eau (Master Plan of water ressource development) PDRG Plan Directeur de la Rive Gauche (Master Plan for the left Bank) PPF Project Preparation Facility SDAH Schema Directeur regional d'Amenagement Hydraulique (Regional Scheme for hydraulics planning) SdE Societe d'Exploitation (Private Operating Company) SGPRE Service de Gestion et de Planification des Ressources en Eau (Management and Planning Unit for Water Resources) SIGRES Systeme d'Information Geographique sur les Ressources en Eau du Senegal (Geographic Information System of Water Resources in Senengal) SMIG Salaire Minimum Interprofessionnel Garanti (Minimum guaranteed salary) SONES Societe Nationale des Eaux du Senegal (Societe nationale de patrimoine) (National Water Company of Senegal) SONEES Societe Nationale d'Exploitation des Eaux du Senegal (National Water Supply Company of Senegal) 1JNDP United Nations Development Program UPA Unite de politique agricole (Agricultural Policy Unit) WHO World Health Organization  REPUBLIC OF SENEGAL WATER SECTOR PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY ............................................... iv 1. BACKGROUND ............................................... .1 Economy ...............................................l. Population and Urbanization ................................................2 2. WATER RESOURCES .................................................2 Renewable Resources ................................................2 Demand and Resource Allocation ................................................5 Institutions ................................................7 Emerging Strategy .................................................9 3. THE SECTOR ................................................11 Drinking Water and Sanitation ...............................................1 I Irrigation in the Dakar and Thies Areas ................................................ 17 Environment and Health ............................................... 18 Emerging Policy ............................................... . 18 IDA Involvement ................................................ . 19 4. THE PROPOSED PROJECT ............................................... 20 Project Objectives ............................................... . 20 Description ................................................ . 21 Project Preparation ................................................. 26 Cost Estimates ............................................... . 31 Financing Plan ............................................... . 32 Advance Contracting ............................................... 33 5. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ................................................ 33 Introduction ............................................... . 33 Future Scenarios ............................................... . 34 Financial Equilibrium ............................................... 34 Future Tariffs ................................................. 35 Cash Shortfall/Surplus, Rescheduling and Equity Capital ............................................... 36 Financial Projection of SONES/Capital Structure of SdE ..................................................... 39 Capital Structure of SdE ..................................................... 39 This report was prepared by a team including: Mr. Jan Janssens (Sanitary Engineer, Task Manager), Ms. Yvonne Powers (Financial Analyst), Mr. Torbjorn Damhaug (Water Resource Management Specialist), Mr. Claude Sorel (Private Sector Development Specialist), Ms. Thelma Triche (Regulatory and Institutional Reforn Specialist), Messrs. Matar Fall and Michel Kerf (Consultants), Mr. Francois-Marie Patorni (Principal Water and Management Specialist), Ms. Fanny Barrett, Ms. Isabelle Denervaud and Mr. David Schisler (Project Assistants). The Lead Advisor is Mr. Richard Verspyck (Principal Water/Sanitation Specialist) and the Peer Reviewers are Messrs. Alain Locussol (Senior Sanitary Engineer), Klas Ringskog (Principal Water Supply Specialist), and Ms. Letitia Obeng (Senior Water/Sanitation Specialist). Mr. Jean-Louis Sarbib is the managing Director, and Mr. Alberto Harth is the managing Division Chief for the operation. Technical support was provided by Ms. Caroline Moisson and Mrs. Song Li.  ii 6. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ............................................ 40 Implementing Agencies and Responsibilities ............................................ 40 Implementation Schedule ............................................ 40 Monitoring and Reporting ............................................ 41 Procurement ............................................ 41 Disbursement ............................................ 43 Special Account ............................................ 44 Accounting, Auditing and Insurance ............................................ 45 Supervision ............................................ 45 7. PROJECT JUSTIFICATION AND RISKS ............................................ 45 Institutional Capacity Building ............................................ 46 Poverty Alleviation and Health ............................................ 46 Financial and Economic Justification ............................................ 47 Environmental and Health Impact ............................................ 48 Risks ............................................ 49 International Implications ............................................ 49 8. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION ............................................ 50  iii Annex No. 1-1 Monthly Rainfall in Senegal and Water Allocation Distribution from The Senegal River 2-1 Water Resource Management Strategy: Institutional Framework 2-2 Water Demand Projections for the Dakar Region 3-1 SONEES Balance Sheet (1990-1993) 3-2 Grille Tarifaire de la SONEES 4-1 Institutional Reform of the Urban Sanitation Subsector 4-2 La consommation d'eau potable dans les quartiers urbains defavorises 4-3 Institutional framework for urban water supply and wastewater sector 4-4 Matrix of water sector actors and responsibilities and definition of basic terms 4-5 Institutional Reform of the Urban Water Subsector: Remuneration Arrangements Incentives to Reduce Water Losses, Tariff Increases and Indexation of Tariffs 4-6 Detailed Cost Estimates 4-7 Implementation Scheme and Financing plan 5-1 Financial Projections Water Sector 5-2 Assumptions Used in the Financial Projections 5-3 Financing of the Temporary Cash Shortfall (table) 5-4 Financing of the Temporary Cash Shortfall (explanatory note) 6-1 Implementation Scheme 6-2 Implementation Schedule 6-3 Performance Indicators for Project Phases 6-4 Monitoring Indicators 6-5 Detailed Cost Estimates and Procurement Arrangements 6-6 Procurement Arrangements and Phasing 6-7 Estimated Disbursements of IDA Credit by Semester 6-8 Supervision Plan 7-1 Economic Evaluation 7-2 Environmental Assessment and Mitigation Plan 8 Letter of Sector Policy 9 Project file Maps IBRD 23121 SONEES Centers IBRD 23122 Water Supply System   Iv REPUBLIC OF SENEGAL WATER SECTOR PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Republic of Senegal Beneficiaries: The Government of Senegal (Ministry of Hydraulics, SONES and ONAS) Poverty Category: Program of Targeted Interventions Amount: SDR 63.5 million (US$100 million equivalent) Terms: Standard IDA terms, with 40 years maturity Onlending Terms: US$85 million equivalent of the IDA credit would be provided by the Government to SONES, of which 45 percent would be onlent to SONES at IBRD terms (20 years including 5 years of grace, at an annual interest rate of 7.1 percent), and the remaining 55 percent would be provided in the form of equity. SONES would bear the foreign exchange risk. The remaining US$15 million equivalent of the IDA credit would be provided to the Ministry of Hydraulics through a budgetary allocation. Financing Plan: See para. 4.46 Project Objectives: The proposed project supports the second of Senegal's three step strategy for the long-term development of its water sector. The first, supported by the Eleven Centers Water Supply Project (Cr. 1554-SE, closed in 1993), helped to establish SONEES, a competent parastatal. The second, supported by the proposed operation, deepens the institutional reform, makes critical investments to meet the demand for safe water for the year 2000, and sets the stage for the third step. The third step would assure the long-term sustainability of the sector and could be supported by a future operation. The overall development objectives of the proposed project are to address: (a) sustainability, by improving management, pricing, and cost recovery and reducing the Government subsidy for industrial, domestic, and irrigation water; (b) poverty alleviation and health, by increasing access to safe potable water and adequate and more affordable sanitation for the urban poor; and, (c) private sector participation, by engaging a private company to manage urban water supply. The specific project implementation objectives are: 1. In water resource management: to formulate an integrated, multisectoral strategy for the shared use of water by households, industry, and agriculture that will be coordinated with future development projects in these sectors. 2. In institutional capacity building: to strengthen the capacity of SGPRE to monitor aquifer  v exploitation, that of the newly established SONES to formulate and enforce policy and strategy, and that of the newly established ONAS to develop a strategy for urban and peri-urban sanitation improvement. 3. In urban water production and distribution: to reduce leakages in the Greater Dakar water distribution system (from the current estimated 27 to 15 percent), and to increase the Dakar region's water production capacity from the current 202,000 cubic meters a day to 271,000 cubic meters, an increase of 34 percent. 4. In urban sanitation: to increase the effectiveness of the existing Dakar sewerage system, develop sanitation in secondary towns, and, promote the reuse of treated municipal wastewater for irrigation. Project Description: 1. Institutional Capacity Building (base cost: US$8.1 million). To achieve a better water resource management, the proposed project would support the Ministry of Hydraulics and SGPRE in the preparation of a national water resource management strategy. To make more potable water available, it would support the newly created SONES in managing sector policy (including auditing and cost accounting). To improve sanitation services, it would support the newly created ONAS in the formulation of a national strategy for sanitation in urban and peri-urban areas. 2. Urban Water Supply (base cost: US$207.5 million). To increase the production of safe water drinking for Dakar, the proposed project would rehabilitate physical works and also expand water production and transport through the use of boreholes, treatment works, pipelines, clean water storage, and the building of a remote control and management system. It would improve and extend urban water distribution through network rehabilitation, renovation, and expansion (including new pipes, large water meters, and new connections to low-income households). It would provide such logistical support as consulting services (with regard to final studies, bid documents, and work supervision); and, a pilot plant and environmental impact studies of the long-term water needs in Dakar. It would also provide necessary laboratory equipment and rehabilitate office facilities. 3. Urban Sanitation (base cost: US$32.0 million). The proposed project would increase connections to the existing sewer system in Dakar, treat and reuse pern-urban municipal sewage for irrigation, prepare sewerage masterplans for nineteen secondary cities and riparian centers, implement a rainwater sanitation project in the St. Louis area, and, implement the Rufisque sewerage and urban drainage subproject. Benefits: The proposed project would help deepen the reforms of the water sector by improving its management, financial accountability, and resource allocation capacity. This would help the Government to keep water shortages in the Dakar region within manageable levels until a long-term solution can be implemented. It is estimated that 1.8 million people would benefit from the project, which would reduce the water deficit and make distribution more equitable and reliable. By providing a steady supply of potable water, the project would relieve one of the major hardships bome  VI by those living in poverty. In pen'-urban areas, women, who are traditionally charged with the family water supply duties, would realize substantial savings in effort and time. Under the proposed project, the Rufisque population (estimated at 150,000), would also benefit from improved sanitation. For nineteen other urban centers recently provided with a safe piped-water supply, sewerage and sanitation master plans would be prepared to improve sanitation services to a total population of 735,000. Construction activities under the project, moreover, would create about 15,000 person-years of temporary employment. Risks: The proposed project poses four primary risks. (a) at the institutional level, it is uncertain that: SONES will assume responsibilities from SONEES in an effective and timely manner. To address this risk, capacity building for SONES would include: (i) water sector planning and development; (ii) project management and implementation; (iii) selection of appropriate water supply and sanitation technologies; and (iv) performance monitoring, including maintenance audits; (b) at the financial level: whether the objective of sector equilibrium in 2003 will be met within the established timeframe given the country's precarious economic and fiscal situation which remains difficult. To address this risk, (i) a politically and socially sustainable tariff policy would be applied to achieve sector financial equilibrium by the year 2003, and key performance indicators would be used during project supervision, with clear targets; (c) at the private sector level: whether there will be a sufficient interest from several private companies, given the complexity of the Dakar situation and the introduction of renewal of the distribution network as part of the affermage contract. To address this risk, several upfront actions were taken before negotiations, namely: the creation of SONES, and, the information workshop for prequalified firms. In addition, as a condition of effectiveness, Government would enter into an affernage contract satisfactory to IDA, with the private operator; and (d) at the private operator level: whether the lowest bid will be sufficiently low to allow for financial viability of the water sector at a tariff level acceptable to the Senegalese authorities. This issue has been addressed through measures including (i) the capacity building program devised for SONES (see (a) above), (ii) the actions adopted in order to ensure sufficient interest from different candidates private companies (see (b) above) and (iii) the specific measures aimed at minimizing the risks of non-payment or late payment of water bills by Government. Maps: IBRD 23121 SONES Centers IBRD 23122 Water Supply System  vii Table i.l. Estimated Project Costs Cin US$ million) % Foreign % Total Base Project Component Local Foreign Total Exchange Costs percentage of total Phase 1 Institutional Capacity Building 1.2 6.6 7.11 84 3 Urban Water Supply Drinking WaterProduction 40.6 109.1 149.8 73 60 Water Supply and Distribution 3.6 10.1 13.7 74 6 Engineering, Studies, Supervision 2.2 4.6 6.7 68 3 Subtotal Urban WaterSupply 46.4 123.8 170.2 73 69 Urban Sanitation Sewerage/Urban Drainage 1.6 10.0 11.6 86 5 Subtotal Phase 1 49.3 140.4 189.7 74 77 Phase 2 Institutional Capacity Building 0.1 0.4 0.5 73 Urban Water Supply Drinking Water Production 3.1 9.3 12.4 75 5 Water Supply and Distribution 2.9 8.4 11.2 75 5 Engineering, Studies & Supervision 0.1 0.9 1.0 91 Subtotal Urban Water Supply 6.0 18.6 24.7 76 10 Urban Sanitation Sewerage, Urban Drainage 2.1 13.6 15.7 87 6 Subtotal Phase 2 8.3 32.6 40.9 80 16 Phase 3 Institutional Capacity Building 0.1 0.3 0.4 77 Urban Water Supply WaterSupplyandDistribution 2.1 6.7 8.7 76 4 Engineering, Studies, Supervision 0.5 1.0 1.6 66 1 Subtotal Urban Water Supply 2.6 7.9 10.3 75 4 Urban Sanitation Sewerage, Urban Drainage 1.0 3.3 4.3 76 2 Subtotal Phase 3 3.7 11.3 15.0 75 6 PPF Refinancing - 2.0 2.0 100 1 Total Baseline Costs 61.3 186.3 247.8 75 100 Physical Contingencies 6.1 18.4 24.6 75 10 Price Contingencies 8.1 9.9 17.11 55 7 Total Project Costs 75.4 214.6 290.1 74 117 *Costs are net of duties and direct and indirect taxes.  viii Table i. 2. Proposed Project Financing (in US$ million) Source of Funds Total % Total IDA 100 34.5 SONES 23.1 8.0 CFD 65.7 22.7 Cermany 25.5 8.8 AGCD 4.1 1.4 EIB 18.0 6.2 NDF 10.3 3.6 BOAD 11.9 4.1 BADEA 10.9 3.7 Other Financiers 20.5 7.1 Total 290.1 100.0 *Costs are net of duties, direct and indirect taxes. Table i.3. Estimated IDA Disbursements by Semester (in USS million) Bank FY nd Dsburedper semester Cumuli %ve | Senster Phse 1 Phase 2 Phae 3 D 1996 Is santer 2.0 2.0 2 2nd saneer 15.5 17.7 17 1997 istansi 15.5 33.0 33 2ndsanesa 16 49.0 49 lstsanter 16 - 65.0 65 2ndsemes- 8.0 73.0 73 1999 ist isema _ 8.0 - 81.0 81 2nd ecte 4.1 1.7 86.8 36 2000 ist snaster 4.1** 1.7 92.6 92 2nd smuia 3.8 96.4 96 2001 lstern- - 3.6 100 100 *Costs are net of duties, direct and indirect taxes. **Payment for works completed during Phase II.   REPUBLIC OF SENEGAL WATER SECTOR PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT 1. BACKGROUND 1.1 Senegal is a medium-sized country (196,722 kIn2) with 550 kilometers of Atlantic coastline. It is located at the westermnost point of the African Continent. Senegal is generally flat and lies in the Senegal-Mauritanian Depression. Elevations above 100 meters are found only on its eastern and southeastern borders with Mali and Guinea and near Dakar at the tip of the Cap Vert peninsula. Three-fourths of the country lies in the Sahel, which has suffered from a lower-than- normal average rainfall for the last forty years. The country itself has a tropical subdesert climate, with wet summers and dry winters. Senegal's development options are severely constrained by its arid climate. The rainy season is limited to a seasonal monsoon, wetter in the south (less than 1000 milimeters from May to October) than in the north (greater than 300 milimeters from June to September). Rainfall is about 500 milimeters a year in Dakar (Annex 1-1). The duration, intensity, and seasonal distribution of the rains at any one location varies considerably from year to year, particularly in areas of lowest rainfall. It is now accepted that Sahelian rainfall depends on features outside of its range, primarily ocean temperatures off the coast of South America. 1.2 The large sand dunes that give northeastern Senegal its undulating and ribbed surface are a reminder that Senegal borders the Sahara Desert and that, in the recent past, Senegal was much drier than it is today. Evaporation rates are extremely high, and everywhere in the country, potential annual evaporation rates exceed potential rainfall. The harmattan, a hot wind that blows out of the Sahara for part of the year and exacerbates this problem, carries dust as far south as Casamance in southern Senegal (see map IBRD 23122). Economy 1.3 At the time of Senegal's independence, it had one of the most developed economies in West Africa. But its economy declined with the loss of markets in newly independent sister states and because of long periods of bad weather and weak management. According to World Bank and IMF estimates, the gross national product (GNP) of the Republic of Senegal in 1994 was CFAF 2,060,300 million. Based on the estimated population, the per capita GNP was US$611.2 in 1994, at an exchange rate of 555.2 CFAF to the US dollar, using the Atlas method. 1.4 The primary, secondary, and tertiary (including nonmercantile services ) sectors account for 20.9 percent, 19.3 percent and 59.8 percent of the 1994 GDP, respectively. In the past decade, the primary sector has been shrinking and the secondary sector expanding, while the tertiary sector has maintained its level. The agriculture sector employs about 70 percent of the labor force, and half the cultivated land is in groundnut production. Government policy is to diversify agriculture and reduce dependence on groundnuts. With that end in mind, cotton, rice, sugar, and vegetables are now being planted in increased quantities. Senegal also has a relatively developed, but somewhat inefficient manufacturing sector, primarily located around Dakar. Much of the industrial output is in food, beverages, and tobacco products. Tourism also grew substantially  2 substantially in the 1970s, and again after the January 1994 devaluation. But Senegal still depends on foreign assistance to offset a chronic balance-of-trade deficit. Population and Urbanization 1.5 While the economy of Senegal grew at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent from 1982 to 1992, the population also grew at a relatively high rate of 2.5 percent per year. The population was 3.5 million at independence in 1960, 6.9 million in 1988, and 8.5 million in 1992. The population growth rate is not expected to slow in the near future and by the year 2006, it is estimated that Senegal will have nearly 12.4 million inhabitants - a figure that will be more than 18 million by the year 2021. In the urban areas (defined here as agglomerations of more than 10,000 inhabitants), the average population growth is about 3.7 percent per year, and in the Cap Vert Peninsula (including the capital city of Dakar), it reaches a rate between 5 and 6 percent. In Senegal there is sustained migration from rural to urban areas, particularly to Dakar and its surroundings. In 1902 the Government was transferred from Saint Louis to Dakar. The population of the city has since grown from 18,000 in 1902 to 350,000 in 1960, and then to 1.8 million in 1992 (48.2 percent of urban population and 22 percent of total population). It is expected to reach 2.3 million by the year 2000. Whereas in the 1960s 73 percent of the population lived in rural areas and 27 percent in urban areas, in 1992 only 45.6 percent lived in rural areas with 54.4 percent in urban areas. 1.6 Today approximately 54 percent of Senegal's urban population has access to a safe supply of piped water. Another 42 percent has access only to public fountains, and the remainder obtains water from conventional sources or from water vendors. In rural areas only about 65 percent of the population has access to a safe and reliable water supply, and service levels for waste-water and sewage disposal are considerably lower. Only about 20 percent of the urban population is connected to a water-bome sewerage system, and only about 12 percent of urban dwellers are connected to a sewerage system. The remainder relies on seepage pits or has no disposal system at all. Because of the serious backlog and the tremendous financial backing required to upgrade service levels, the system is likely to deteriorate further before improvements can be achieved. 2. WATER RESOURCES Renewable Resources 2.1 Surface water. Senegal is served by four major rivers: the Senegal, Saloum, Gambia, and Casamance, all of which are wide and meandering for most of their length. The Senegal River is by far the major source of surface water in Senegal (Figure 2.1). Since the completion of the Manantali dam in 1988, the minimum regulated flow of the Senegal River at Richard Toll is 26 million cubic meters per day. With the decrease in rainfall over the last forty years, river flows in the lower Senegal River have decreased from average levels of more than 30 billion cubic meters per year to averages of less than 20 billion, reaching a new low in 1984 of less than 10 billion cubic meters per year. Because of high evaporation rates, Senegal has practically no permanent, significant, surface-water bodies-with the exception of the Lac de Guiers, which is replenished yearly by the floods of the Senegal River. But since the completion of the dams at Manantali and Diama, ponds that used to dry out periodically are now more or less perennial.  3 2.2 Groundwater. Except in the southeastern region, Senegal sits on a sedimentary basin that contains large quantities of groundwater. Figure 2.1. RelatiDistribution ofSurface Groundwater resources often have more buffer Water Resources in Senegal capacity for variations in rainfall than do rivers, since the latter respond more directly to seasonal Other surface variations. Groundwater resources are therefore water resources relied upon extensively in many rural and urban 1% areas in Senegal and are a viable alternative to Gambia river expensive and environmentally sensitive water- 17% F S | | | l transmission schemes. But, if groundwater abstraction exceeds replenishments over the long run, the source will be depleted. 2.3 Western wells typically reach down 30 meters to aquifers, but in the Ferlo, they can be as Senegal river deep as 100 meters. Renewable groundwater 83