Private saving in Mexico, 1980-90

Policy Research Debt and International Finance International Economics Department and Country Department I, Latin America and the Caribbean The World Bank February 1992 WPS 861 Private Saving in Mexico, 1980-90 Patricio Arrau and Daniel Oks By conventional measures, private saving declined sharply in Mexico in 1987-90. The picture changes when data are cor- rected. The smaller decline in private saving that results is due mostly to a reduction in private interest income from domestic and foreign assets. The Potcy Rescarch Workmglapesdiscmtnate thc fndmtgsof work n progress and encourage the exc hangc of idcas among Ilank staff and all others terested in dcselopment issues These papers, distibuted by the Resear It Ad%s ory Stalf. carry the names of the authors, reflect only their views, and should be used and cited accordngl) he findtngs, interpretations, and conclusions are the authors' own They should not be attrtbuted to the World liad., its Board of Dirtctors. Its management, or any of its member countnes Policy Research Debt and International Finance WPS 861 This paper - a joint product of the Debt and International Finance Division, International Economics Department, and Country Operations Division, Country Department 1, Latin America and the Caribbean -- i- part of a larger effort in the Bank to identify external and internal factors that affect savings and investment in developing countries. Copies of the paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433. Please contact Sheilah King- Watson, room S8-040, extension 31047. (February 1992, 47 pages). Between 1987 and 1990, Mexico's current cause for concer than if it stems from non- account and trade balance deteriorated by more interest income, than US$10 billion. Higher investment accounts only partly for this deterioration, nor can it be The following are among the conclusions of attributed to the public sector. By conventional (unadjusted) measures of private saving - the total investment not financed by public or - When conventional measures of private foreign savings - private saving did decline saving are corrected, the recent decline in private sharply between 1987 and 1990. saving appears less important than it did before. But that diagnosis does not hold true w,,hen - Most variaiions in private saving between Drivate, public, and foreign savings are corrected 1980 and 1990 arc ascribable to fluctuations in (as they are here) to account for shiFts in portdb- disposable income. Disposable income fluctu- lio composition from foreign to domestic assets, ated considerably more than did private con- for the effects of inflation on foreign and domes- Sur"I't101. tic interest income (the inflation tax), for fluctua- tions in the real exchange rate, and for other - The sharp drop in private saving in 1990 faciors. was prompted primarily by a decline in dispos- able incomne and, less so, by fast-growing Arrau and Oks provide more informAation consumption. about the components of private saving than most studies so, addressing such questions as the a Only a quarter ofthe increase in consurp- following: Is consumption more important than tion in 1988-90 was attributable to increased disposable income in explaining changes in consumption of durables - which grew almost private saving? What components of consurp- three times faster than consumption of other tion and disposable income matter the most? If, items but represents only a small share (about 1 for example, the bulk of consumption growth is percent) oftotal consumption. accounted for by durable consumption in the wake of trade liberalization, the measured - Fluctuations in the real exchange rate played decline in private saving need not be cause fi an important role in the evolution of public concern as ir would be for a once-and-for-all saving because that exchange rate influences the stock adjustment in durable goods. On the other real interest serice on foreign debt. Real peso hand, if the main factor behind the recent declin devaluations in 1982 and 1985-86 hurt public in private saving is disposable income (rather finances and real peso appreciation later helped than consumption), it is useful to identify which them. Strong real peso appreciation in 1988 and, component of'disposable incomne accounts for to a lesser extent, in 199 reduced real income the decline. If, for example, the decline in from private foreign assets reducing private disposable income stems from a rcduction in the saving in those ears. domestic publi debt service, there may be less The Poficy Reearch Wvking Paper Series diseninales the I indingf ofo% oik uidei " ai in theBank. Anohjciveof the series is [ s get th wuse f oinrip ou quiki * even if preentalions re leS Lh,n fill) J)0hS1Wd Thi finding%, interpretations, and conclusions in thes, Papers do not ne ntifyaril\ TepISLI1 offiCial Bank PwhiC\ Produced by the Policy RSCaCh Dpslenination Center PRIVA2E SAVING IR MEXICO, 1980-90 Contents 1. Motivation and Summary p.3 2. Methodological Issues and Measurement Problems p.5 2.1 Methodological Issues p.5 2.2 Measurement Problems p.6 2.2.1 Balance of Payments Data p.6 2.2.2 Fiscal Data p.9 2.2.3 National Accounts Data p.10 2.3 Durable Consumption p.11 2.4 Data p.12 3. Private Saving Performance, 1980-90 p.13 3.1 Saving Rates in Mexico, 1980-90 p.13 3.2 Comparison with the Conventional Measure of Private Saving p.19 3.3 Disaggregation of Consumption Expenditures p.20 3.4 Dissagregation of Disposable Income p.21 References p.22 Annex A: A Revision of National Accounting Procedures in Mexico Annex B: Statistical Annex Annex C: Quarterly and Monthly Consumption Series in Mexico We have benefitted from comments by Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel and Sweder van Wijnbergen. We are very grateful to officials from the Government of Mexico for facilitating the data of this study and for helpful discussions. Heinz Rudulph and Rebecca Brideau provided able research assistance. 3 1. Motivation and Summary Between 1987 and 1990 Mexico's current account/trade balance deteriorated more than US$ 10 billion. The extent to waich this denerioration is worrisome hinges, of course, on the underlying factors. If it was prompted by a surge in investment there need be no big cause for concern as the trade deterioration could then be regarded as temporary. The evidence indeed shows that, despite the severe cutbacks in public investment, there was a sisable surge in fixed investment in the last three years, particularly in 1990 when fixed investment was up 13.5% In real terms compared to the 1989 level, or 28% above the 1987 level. However, higher investment only accounts partially for the recent current account deterioration. The current account deterioration cannot be ascribed to the public sector. Nominal public saving rose more than enough to finance increased investment implying that the entire current account deterioration could be ascribed to declining private saving. The conventional or unadjusted measure of private saving, i.e., the portion of aggregate investment not financed by public or foreign saving, has it fact declined sharply between 1987 and 1990. 1 However, when properly measuring private, public and foreign saving, the above diagnosis no longer holds. Private saving in 1990 was actually higher than in 1987 and public saving lower. And although recently both the conventional and proposed measures of private saving move in the same direction, i.e., a sharp decline in 1990, the conventional measure alarmingly shows a private saving-GDP ratio at its lowest level since 1981 while the proposed measure of private saving reveals that in 1990 the ratio was just below the decade's average. In this paper we compute series of private saving which incorporate a variety of corrections usually not considered in conventional measures. The main objective is to provide an accurate measure of private saving and its components. One key measurement problem is the measurement of income from foreign assets, which is usually misrepresented in the official current account of Mexico. We employ estimates of income from foreign assets which increase the measure of disposable income by almost 2 percentage points of GDP. The proposed private saving measure fully captures the impact of the recent shift in portfolio composition from foreign to domestic assets on private agent's income structure. Another key measurement issue is the adjustment of foreign and domestic interest payments for inflation. In a high inflation country as Mexico this adjustment is more than relevant. For example, the inflation component of the domestic public interest service alone represented more than 20 percentage points of GDP in 1987. And the inflation tax on base money, although partly compensated by interest payments on commercial banks deposits at the central bank, shrunk from arond 7% of GDP in 1982 to about 1% in 1989-90. In turn, the inflationary adjustment of foreign debt service and on income from foreign private assets permits measuring accurately the impact of the recent real peso appreciation over the foreign debt service burden and real income from foreign assets. Several other important measurement issues are discussed. For example, to ensure consistency with national accounts data those items of the balance of payments and Ziscal accounts which were available as national accounts data ' The conventional measure is derived directly from national accounts as the difference between disposable income and consumption. However, as we show in section 2 it is equivalent, once data consistency is ensured, to the portion of aggregate investment not financed by public or foreign saving. 4 were employed, e.g., the trade balance and current government expenditure. In particular, the curent government expenditure measure from national accounts tends to be larger than the fiscal accounts measure because the latter computes purchases of military equipment as investment whereas the former doesn't. Further consistency problems arise because the fiscal accounts measure of public investment are used as fiscal accounts treats purchases of assets as investment whereas national accounts properly considers these purchases below the line of financing. A useful feature of our study is that it provides information about private saving components. Is consumption more important than disposable income to explain changes in private saving? And what components of consumption/disposable income matter most? If, for example, the bulk of consumption growth is accounted for by durable consumption in the wake of trade liberalization, the measured decline in private saving need not be cause for concern as it would be a once-and-for-all stock-adjustment in durable goods. On the other hand, if the main factor behind the recent decline in private saving is disposable income (rather than consumption) it is useful to identify which component of disposable income accounts for the decline. If, for example, the decline in disposable income stems from a reduction in the domestic public debt service, there may be less cause for concern than if it stems from non-interest income. Several conclusions can be extracted from revised measurements. (i) Due to the inflation-adjustment of domestic and foreign interest income and the inclusion of the inflation tax in our measure the conventional private saving measure is systematically higher than the one proposed. The patterns of private saving suggested by the two measures is also qualitatively different. In particular, the recent decline in private saving appears relatively less important than conventional measures of private saving suggest. (ii) Most of the variability of private saving over the 1980-90 period is ascribable to fluctuations of disposable income, i.e., disposable income fluctuated considerably more than private consumption. In turn, most of the Ziuctuation of disposable income represents transfers between public and private sectors which account for much of the complementarity observed between public and private saving rates. Public saving performance was strongly influenced by external ev-"nts such as the 1981-82 debt crisis and the 1985-86 oil crisis. (iii) In particulax. the sharp drop in private saving observed in 1990 was prompted primarily by the decline in disposable income and, to a lesser extent, by fast growing consumption. The decline in disposable income was explained by a sharp drop in the real domestic public debt service and, to a lesser degree, by a reduction in real income from foreign assets (which, in turn, stemmed from lower external interest rates and real peso appreciation). However, the 1990 drop in public debt service was preceded by a bigger increase in 1988-89 so that disposable income (and private saving) in 1990 was still substantially above the 1987 level. Another important factor behind the upward trend in disposable income prior to 1990 was the sharp drop in the inflation tax. (iv) only one-quarter of the increase in consumption in 1988-90 was due to the increase in durable consumption which, nevertheless, grew almost three times faster than the other consumption items. The reason is that durable consumption represents a small share of total consumption; about 11%. (v) Fluctuations in the real exchange rate played an important role in the evolution of public saving, by influencing the real interest service on foreign debt, and of private saving, by influencing income from foreign 5 assets. In particular, the real peso devaluations in 1982 and in 1985-86 exerted an adverse impact on public finances while the subsequent real peso appreciat*on exerted the opposite effect thereafter. The impact of real exchange rate fluctuations on private saving increased during the decade along with the growth in the stock of private foreign assets. As a consequence, the strong real peso appreciation in 1988 and, to a lesser extent, in 1990 reduced real income -from private foreign assets lowering private saving in those years. As estimated Income from foreign private assets has come close to interest on foreign debt real exchange rate fluctuations will tend to have a neutral impact on domestic saving. (vi) Finally, a very important sub-product of our study is to make available good quality series on consumption data, both quarterly and monthly. Consumption series are in great scarcity in LDC's; and the series provided here for Mexico are not available from any other developing country. We include extensive appendices with information on national account methodology in Mexico and with disaggregated series of consumption. 2. Methodological Issues and Measurement Problems In subsection 2.1 we present the general framework to compute private saving. n subsection 2.2 we discuss several measurement problems associated to the computation. The measurement problems arise from the three sources of data employed: the balance of payments, the fiscal accounts and the national accounts. In subsection 2.3 we discuss the role of durable consumption in the measure of private saving. Data sources and calculation procedures are presented in subsection 2.4. 2.1 Methodological Issues We start from the traditional macroeconomic identity: Y=C+G+I+X-M (1) where Y is GDP, C is private consumption, 0 is government consumption, I is gross investment (both public investment, I , and private investment, Xp; where private investment includes foreign investment), and I - M is net exports of goods and non-factor services. By adding and rearranging terms, the identity can be expressed as I? +I, = (Y -NFS +rB +iF -iD, -T -OR -C -w*BM) Private Saving + (T+w*BM - OR-G-rB-iD,) Public Saving (2) + (M-I+iDr+iD, -iF+NFS) Foreign Saving where the added terms are: rB: income from claims against the government (real interest rate times stock of national or domestic debt) iF: income from private assets held abroad (real foeign interest rate times stock of assets held abroad) Tt direct and indirect taxes 6 ORz other government revenues (transfers from public enterprises, etc.) iDpu: interest payments for not external public debt (stock of external public debt less official reserves/assets times rea4 foreign interest rate) iDpr: interest payments on extarnal private debt (stock of external private debt times real foreign interest rate) NFS: net other factor services including workers, remittances and profit remittances (morkers' remittances from Mexicans abroad reduces NFS, while profit remittances from foreign companies in Mexico increases NFS). In this measure we also include all other current account items not included elsewhere (e.g. transfers from abr.ad, etc.) w*BN: inflation tax (net of interest paid by central bank oA commercial bank deposits) As we can see from identity (2) there are two ways of computing private saving. First, we can compute private saving directly by subtracting private consumption from disposable income, i.e., the first parenthesis on the right hand side of (2). Second, we can compute private saving indirectly as the difference between aggregate investment and the sum of public saving and foreign saving (current account deficit). Both measures would be identical if we use in identity (2) the same items from national accounts from identity (1). Noweve:, it is common to compute private saving using the indirect measure using implicitly the government budget definition for G as well as the balance of payments figures for X-N (trade balance of goods and non-factor services). The convenience of the indirect procedure is that the items of the disposable income series in the first parenthesis in the righi. hand side of identity (2) do not have to be computed explicitly. The inconvenie-ce stems precisely from the fact that fiscal accounts and national accounts use incompatible definitions of current and capital expenditures. 2.2 Measurement Problems. The three sources of data required for identity (2) are the balance of payments, the government budget and the national accounts. Several specific measurament problems associated to these sources are discussed in turn. We close the section with a discussion of the role of durable consumption in a measure of private saving. 2.2.1 Balance of Payments Data. The official current dccount balance does not adequately measure real national financial dissaving in Mexico for at least four reasons: i) the measurement of income from foreign assets is not based on a comprehensive measure of the stock of foreign assets; ii) the official methodology employed to calculate worker's remittances until 1988 underestimates remittances; iii) capital gains induced by inflation are neglected; and iv) the difference in statistical basis between balance of payments data and national accounts data, e.g., the national accounts implicitly converts foreign currency units into domestic currency units at a trade-weighted exchange rate. In order to obtain a current account balance which would allow us to estimate private saving properly we deal in turn with factors i) to iii; factor iv) is discussed in sections 2.2.3 and 2.4. Other possible sources of inadequate current account measurement not 7 dealt with here are trade misinvoicing and capital gains derived from cross- currency fluctuations. Although data on trade misinvoicing was available coverage was incomplete and some numbers appeared doubtful. On the other hand, capital gains/losses from cross-currency fluctuations could only have been calculated fce foreign debt as the currency composition of private foreign assets is unknown. i) Income from Poreign Assets. Income from private foreign assets requires knowledge of the stock of wealth held by domestic residents abroad. A direct measurement of this stock is unavailable except for deposits of Mexicans in foreign banks. This is clearly incomplete as it does not measure bond holdings, equity and real estate assets held by Mexicans abroad. Neither does it measure Mexican's bank deposits abroad held by off-shore companies. To remedy this problem we propose to use an indirect estimate of the stock of foreign assets held by Mexicans obtained by Brideau, Eggerstedt and van Wijnbergen (1991). AGW private capital outflows were derived residually as the difference between, on the one hand, the sum of external debt and DFI flows, and on the other hand, the sum of the current account deficit (excluding interest rqtained !broad), the increase in net reserves and the increase in other public foreign assets. This flow measure was completed by incorporating an unofficial estimate of additional worker's remittances (compared to the official figure) before 1988. The total private capital outflow was then estimatad by adding the new flow adjusted for worker's remittances to reinvested income from foreign assets. It was assumed that 100% of the income was reinvested and that the rate of return was explained two-thirds by the US CD rate and one-third by the three- month LIBOR rate. The stock, in turn, can be obtained by adding tue total flow to the stock of the previous period. ii) Worker's Remittances. In late 1990 the government revised the az+hodology to estimate annual worker's remittances. The new estimate, which implied an upwards revision of about US$ 1.5 billion, was only reported for 1989 and 1990. Thus, it is likely that worker's remittances prior to 1989 are underestimated. If this is the case, the current account deficit would be overestimated and capital flight underestimated. Preliminary and yet unofficial estimates of worker's remittances reported in Table 1 were used to adjust the current account balance. Taile 1. Wo:.er's Remittances Adjustment. Year official Adjusted Change 1980 140 569 429 1981 128 692 564 1982 98 690 591 1983 111 824 712 1984 176 943 767 1985 173 971 797 1986 180 &082 901 1987 207 1237 1030 1988 209 1526 1316 iii) Adiustment for Inflation. in order to estimate real private and public saving we raquire a measure of real/inflation-adjusted frreign financial savingis. This, in turn, requires adjusting the financial components ot the current account for inflation, i.e., computing reel interest receipts/payments rather than nominal. Since domestic goods are the chosen numeraire, i.e., we are concerned with the value of ft.-signers' not claims in terms of Mexican real resources, the real interest rat& on foreign assets (or on foreign debt) is obtained deflating the nominal interest rate, which depends on both the foreign interest rate and the rate of peso devaluation, by domestic inflation. More specifically: (3) r = [(1 + ir)*(1 + d)/(1 + w)] - I where: r is the real interest rate on foreign assets/liabilities it is the foreign nominal interest rate d is the rate of devaluation between the beginning and the end of the period of the exchange rate w is the domestic rate of inflation The first term in brackets in equation (3) can be decomposed into: (3') r = ir*((1 + d)/(1 + r)] + ((1 + d)/(l + w)] - 1 The first term on the right hand side measures the nominal interest (the foreign interest rate times one plus the rate of devaluation) in units of beginning of the period, i.e., discounted by the rate of inflation. The second and third terms measure the capital gain/loss component; e.g., if the rate of devaluation falls short of the rate of inflation there is a capital gain. It is clear from equation (3) that r is a good measure of the real cost of .ebt only if all the interest is paid at the end of the period, since d and w must measure end of period d valuation and inflation rates for the capital gain/loss component to make sense. In practice, though, interest payments on foreign debt are spread throughout the year. Thus, if there is a devaluation at the end of the period the interest cost of servicing debt is likely to be overestimated by (3) since most interest payments were made at a pre-devaluation exchange rate. When interest payments are spread throughout the year a better measure of the real cost of debt (r) is obtained by replacing the end of period devaluation and inflation rates in the first component of (3') by the average devaluation and inflation rates with respect to the beginning of the period: (4) r = if*[(1 + d-)/(l + w-)] + [(1 + d)/(1 + w)] - 1 where: d- and r- are the average devaluation and inflaticn rate with respect to the beginning of the period Equation (4) was actually used to estimate the real interest on foreign debt. 2 Note that since the foreign nominal interest rate has as well a foreign inflation component we could have -ewritten (3) ast 2 The same procedure was not applied to income from foreign assets because it was assumed that all interest on foreign assets was reinvested. (5) r [(+)*(1I + )*(1 + d)/(1 + w) -1 where the f superscript indicates foreign So that r is made up of two components: r, which is the real foreign interest rate, and (1 + :)*(1 + d)/(l + a), which is the real exchange rate. Thus, for example, a real pbso devaluation increases the burden of servicing foreign debt and a real peso appreciation reduces it. 2.2.2 Piscal Data. Public saving is measured as the difference between current revenue and current expenditure. However, this measurement of public sector saving is inadequate if based on fiscal accounts data because the latter considers as capital expenditure items which are actually current expenditure (point i)). Besides, when computing real public saving, this measure does ;ot capture capital gains derived from the inflation-erosion of domestic and foreign financial liabilities (point ii)) nor from the inflation tAx (point iii)). i) Current Expenditure Adjustment. Several items which fiscal accounts compute as public investment are not strictly investment from a national accounts perspective, i.e., they don't add to the existing capital stock. These items have to be reclassified as current public expenditure which, in turn, implies lower public saving. These items are mainly military expenditure and some federal transfers which do not translate into fixed capital formation. Since the national accounts properly compute these items as current government expenditure we use national accounts data of public expenditure to estimate public saving. 3 ii) Capital Gains From Inflatio,n on Financial Liabilities. Nominal fiscal deficits are a misleading measure of real public sector financial dissaving because they don't account for the loss in real value of domestic and foreign public debt which is due to inflation. The inflation- erosion of the real value of nominal debt should, thus, be subtracted from the nominal deficit. This is usually done with domestic debt, leading to the so called operational or inflation-adjusted fiscal deficit, but not with foreign debt. Only the real interest rate on domestic and foreign debt was computed as a fiscal expense. In the case of foreign debt the real interest rate was calculated as shown in equation (4) in the previous section; the real interest rate on domestic debt was obtained as follows: C. (6) r m [(1 - i)/(1 + I)] - 1 where: r (i) are the domestic real (nominal) 1-terest rate V is the domestic rate of inflation To avoid the problem that arose with the real foreign interest rate (average inflation different from end of period inflation) do-estic real interast payments (and the inflation tax discussed below) were estimated 3 Fiscal accounts also compute financial investments and purchases of land/real estate as investment. Although these are clearly transactions below the line of financing, i.e., asset swaps, and thus are not public investment from a national account perspective, they don't affect our estimate of public saving since they donet require reclassifying items to current expenditure (only current expenditures are needed to estimate public saving). mutiplying bhe above real interest rates and the beginning of the month stocks of debt (base money in the case of the inflation tax). Annual real interest payments were then obtained adding up monthly interest payments. iii) Inflation My.. Finally, the inflation-erosion of the dtock of base money (a wealth transfer to the public sector) was computed as fiscal revenue, i.e., the inflation tax. Since for most of the period commercial bank deposits at the Bank of Mexico (a major component of the stock of base money) perceived an interest the inflation taw revenue was actually less than the loss in real value due to inflation of the initial stock of base money. The actual procedure followed to e.,,Imate the inflation tax rate (applied over the beginning of period stock of base money) ist (7) WM= [(1 + iBM)/(1 + r)] - 1 where: *Om is the inflation tax rats iB" is the nominal interest rate on average perceived by one unit of base money 2.2.3 National Accounts Data The most difficult issue in the computation of national accounts is the distribution of supply into its demand components, e.g., consumption, investment, exports and stock accumulation. As we discuss below and, in more detail, in Annex A, the problems which arise in the measurement of aggregate demand components can be quite crucial for evaluating private saving and, in particular, for the choice of data frequency employed. From the discussion below, we conclude that the national accounts measure of both government consumption and the resource balance are relatively accurate while fixed investment, private consumption and stock accumulation are relatively more noisy (stock accumulation being the more noisy as it generally contains a residual component) and strongly dependent on the quality of surveys of sales and stocks. Since surveys on sales are less complete for q.arterly data series (which, thus, are more noisy) we only discuss annual data. One general problem with the national account system in Mexico is that its base is probably outdated. Fixed coefficients employed to estimate current value-added are based on the 1980 input-output matrix. Given the process of trade liberalization that Mexico has undergone in the 1980s, particularly, after 1985, the coefficients of value-added to value of production are likely to have changed significantly. For example, the substitution of imported inputs for domestic value-added in the production process is likely to have reduced the coefficient of actual value-added to value of production in the industrial sector (see Annex A for a more detailed discussion of this point). In any case, this is a source of error in the measurement of savinq that we cannot do anything about. As mentioned, zhe most difficult issue in the computation of national accounts is the distribution of supply into its demand components. The usual problem with the distribution of demand components is that the relevant information is generally not available. Therefore, some assumptions have to be made. The balance of payments accounts normally provide fairly good information on imports and exports. Except for the exchange rate measurement difficulties of transforming foreign denominated series into local currency accounts, these series are fairly accurate. In many cases assigning total supply to the demand components can be facilitated by doing the supply/demand compatibilization at a level as disaggregated as possible. For instance, if a firm produces mostly machinery, it is clear that production should be 11 assigned to investment rather than consumption nowever, for several othar sectors the prob ems of assigning total supply into its demand components is more difficult. The more serious problems arise in those sectors which products can go to several different demand components, particularly, when the fixed coefficients are likely to be out of date as in Mexico. Most food production, for example, can go to internediate demand, private consumption, stock accumulation (if storable) and erports. While the good characteristics help assigning the good tc investment and consumption, something else is required to discriminate when a good goes to stock accumulation or is actually invested or consumed. That usually requires good-quality survey data on sales at the sector or company level. The difference between what is produced and what is sold is the stock accumulation. The lack of good sales information normally implies having to use fixed distribution coefficients from the base period. The coefficients are mora likely to be stable or loss variable for consumption and investment, and therefore stock accumulation is often tho residual variable. Surveys on sales and stocks are therefore the critical input for a good d.stribution between investment nr consumption and stock accumulation. Surveys on salis are less complete for quarterly data series which, thus, are more noisy than annual data. In this i port we therefore only employ annual data. 2.3 Durable Consumption One fundamental question one wants to address when studying private saving and consumption series is to know whether any change in the rate of private wealth accumulation is permanent or transitory. The implicatioAs for public policy and the economy in general are dramatically different if such an increase is permanent or transitory. A permanent increase in consumption would not raise much concben if based in a permanent increase in income, while it would be fairly unwise if the change is due to misinterpretation (as permanent) of a transitory shock in income. However, because it is so difficult to disentangle permanent and transitory shocks from iicome, a large decrease in saving rates (increase in consumption) is normally viewed with concern. However, there is one case when it is rather easy to judge that an increase in consumption is transitory and therefore there should not be much policy concera, and that is when most of the incroase is in durable goods in the wake of a trade liberalization (as in Mexico's). Because prior to trade liberalization demand for durable goods may have been repressed, through quotas, once trade is liberalized a sudden once-and-for-all increase in the stock of durable consumption is likel7 to take place. Consumer durable imports may albo overshoot if agents expect a reversal of trade liberalLiation (the increase in demand for imported consumer durables being linked to expected capital gains from the policy reversal). Alternatively, we could think of durable expenditures as investment expenditures and ascribe to consumption only a service flow associated to the stock of durable goods. In the next section we will consider the durable-non- durable decomposition when interpreting the movement of private saving rates in Mexico. 2.4 Data. All raw variables employed in this study are listed in Annex P. All 12 official national account items from identity (1) were employed, and therefore the indirect as well as direct measure of private saving (see section 1) are identical. All nominal variables in identity (2) not included in identity (1) were deflated by the GDP deflator. All saving rates are calculated in both current and 1980 pesos. Data sources and adjustment procedures are described below. National Account (NAI Aqqregates. The data source is INEGI (National Institute of Statistics) and corresponds to gross aggregate investment, i.e., includes inventory accuaulation. INEGI reports the series in current pesos and in constant pesos of 1980. Balance of Payments (BOP) Agregates. The principal BOP data source is Bank of Mexico. However, the resource balance employed in identity (2) is a NA aggregate. The source for the stock of foreign private assets is Brideau, Eggerestedt and van Wijabergen (1991). The current account figures are based on revised, but yet unofficial, estimates of worker's remittances prior to 1988 (see Table 1). Net other factor services (NFS) was obtained as follows: (8) NFS = - [CACC - iFo . iDn + (M-I)) where: CACC is the current account adjusted for estimated worker's remittances iro is the official figure of interest retained abroad iDn is nominal interest on foreign debt (net of central bank reserves) M-X is the BOP trade deficit All flow variables originally in US dollars were converted to nominal pesos employing the average commercial exchange r.te ("de flotacion controlada do equilibrio") except for the resource balance which was available in pesos from national accounts source and interest payments/receipts. The terms iDpr and iDpu in identity (2) were obtained multiplying the share of private sector/public sector foreign debt in total foreign debt by the term iD. The terms iF and iD (real foreign interest payments/receipts) were calculated as the product of: the estimated real interesc rates (see equations (3) and (4) in subsection 2.2.2), the beginning of period debt/asset stocks measiured in US dollars and the beginning of period commercial exchange rate. Fiseal Accounts (FA) Agqregates. The principal data source for FA is Bank of Mexico. However, current government expenditures (excluding interest) employed in identity (2) is a NA aggregate. Domestic debt stocks correspond to the non-financial public sector consolidated with the Bank of Mexico and the Development Banks and is reported in the 1990 Annual Report of the Bank of Mexico ("Deuda Consolidada con Banco de Mexico"). Prior to 1983 this measure was not available and so we employed the consolidated debt of the non- financial public sector and all the financial system ("metodologia consolidada"). Domestic real interest payments and the inflation tax were estimated mutiplying real interest rates, obtained following the procedure described in subsection 2.2.2., by the beginning of the month stocks of debt and base money. Annual ;-*.1 interest payments are then obtained adding up monthly interest pAyments. Lack of monthly data impeded performing the same procedure with foreign public debt. The annual nominal interest rate on base money (equation (7)) was estimated as the ratio of interest paid by the Bank of Mexico (accumulated to December) and the average annual stock of base money. The monthly rate was the corresponding cumulative monthly rate that yielded 13 the just described annual rate. The annual rate for 1980 was assumed to be equal to the 1981 rate (data on interest paid by the Bank of Mexico to banks in 1980 was not available). The term other government revenues (OR) was obtained as followst (9) OR = EcBal + Ipu + 0 + iB + iDpun - T where: EcBal is the fiscal balance Ipu in public investment G is current government expenditure (FA source) iB is nominal interest on domestic debt iDpun is nominal intorest on external public debt T is tax revenue 3. Saving Rates in Mexico, 1980-90 In subsection 3.1 we compute the items in identity (2) and assess saving performance over the 1980-90 period. A comparison between our saving measure and the conventional measure is made in subsection 3.2. Inspection of saving measures reveals a high degree of complementarity between public and private saving throughout the decade in both the proposed and cinventional measures. However, it becomes difficult to interpret this complementarity without a closer look at the disaggregated items in both private and public savings. Thus, we analyze the behavior of private saving components: private consumption, in subsection 3.2, and disposable income, in subsection 3.3. 3.1 Saving Performance in 1980-1990. Figures 1 and 2 show our measures of private saving as a percentage of GDP in 1980 pesos and in current pesos respectively. Some important differences between the figures in current and real pesos arise after 1985; these differences stei from changes in relative prices brought about by trade liberalization. In the subsequent discussion we focus on the saving measures in constant pesos (Figure 1. The large flow of foreign finance that Mexico received in the early 1980s, which mainly financed public sector oil investments, came to an abrupt end in 1982 (Figure 3). As the debt crisis unfolded foreign saving contracted sharply prompting an equally drastic increase in public saving (Figure 1). While higher public saving stemmed primarily from an increase in revenue, higher public tariffs until the mid 1980s and higher tax revenue towards the end of the decade (respectively OR and T in Figure 4), it also relied heavily on inflation-driven wealth transfers (Figure 5). All this, of course, affected adversely private saving. Lower investment and the partial recovery of domestic saving came along with a sizable accumulation of foreign assets by the private sector. These assets eventually played an important role in the private sector income structure (Figure 6). 14 PRIVATE, PUBLIC AND FOREIGN SAVING. (in 1980 pesos as % of GDP) 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.15 V 0. -0.0 1980 19Bil1982 1983 1984tS9B51986 1987 1988 1989 1990 year. * Private Saving 4-- Pdffo Sovbg --aK- Foreign Savhg Figure 1 PRIVATE, PUBLIC AND FOREIGN SAVING. (in current pesos as % of GDP) 0.25 0.2 5 0.05 -0Ir **0.15 198019511 982 1983 i984 19551986 1987 191819891990 yeare Private S.vg -Puic Soving - 1 vign Saving Figure 2 15 DOMESTIC SAVING AND RMESTLNT. (in 1980 pesos as % of Gop) 0.35 0.3 it 0.2- 0 .15 . 0.1 1980 19811982 198 19'84 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 -e- Aggreg. Investment -+- Domesic Savfig Pigure 3 DISPOSABLE INCOME COWOENTS. (in 1980 pesos as % of GDP) 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02. 9L So -0.04. -0.06 - ii = 1980 198i 1982 19831984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 -W- 9 -IF- rg~r 4 a) DISPOSABLE INCOME COMPONTS. (in 1980 pesos as % of GP) 0 -0.02 0. -.2 1980 1981 1982 198319841985 1986 1987 1958 1989 1990 ym -T -~ -M -i&- -WS3 Figure 4 b) INFLATON-RIVEN DOMESTIC TRANSFERS (in 1980 pesos os % of GDP) 0.25 0.2 S0.15 *W 0.1 0.05 0 1980 19811982 198319841985 19861987 1988 1989 1990 y.m - Dmuslc Dbi --- nlalo Tax Figure 5 17 PROPOSED AND OFFICIAL MEASURES OF INTEREST ON PRIVATE FOREIGN ASSETS 5000 200 1000 - 198019011982 19831984 1985 19'6 1987 1980 1989 1990 Figure 6 The drop in domestic and, in particular, public saving in 1985-86 was by and large a temporary phenomenon: it was a consequence of the collapse in oil prices and was more than offset in later years through a deepening of the non- oil primary fiscal surplus. While foreign saving was clearly influenced by external events, it dropped after the debt crisis and it rose with the collapse of oil prices in the mid 1980s, it was as well strongly influenced by real exchange rate fluctuations. As Figure 7 illustrates, the real peso devaluations in 1982 and in 1985-86 exerted an adverse impact on public finances while the subsequent real peso appreciation exerted the opposite effect in the late 1980s. Private saving fluctuated substantially during the period. Figure 1 even suggests a cyclical pattern. An interesting feature, as Figure 8 illustrates, is that fluctuations in the private saving rate stem primarily from fluctuations in disposable income; private consumption also oscillates, lagging somewhat in response to changes in disposable income, but within a much narrower band. As mentioned, much of the variability in disposable income resulted from public sector adjustments to the debt and oil crisis. A more dissaggregated analysis of private saving, however, is left to subsections 3.3. and 3.4 where we examine the performance of consumption and disposable income sub-components. 18 REAL EXCHANGE RATE, FOREIGN DE9T SERVICE AND INCOM. FROM FOREIGN ASSETS 0.3 0.25 0. 0.1 -0. -0.15 1980 1981 1982131984 19'5 1988 1987 1988 1989 1990 - Red Exe. Rota aup + Putc ht. SrvTce -- kt. Pri.För.As Figure 7 DISPOSALJE INCOME AND CONSUMPTION. (in 1980 pesos os % of GDP) 0.9 0.85 0.8 8 0.75 0.7 0.60 0.61 980s19 I1982 198319841gB 5s9861987 1988 1989 199i iguream8 Imigure 8 19 3.2 Comparison with the Conventional Measure of Private Saving. Despite the sharp decline in private saving observed in 1990 at 15% the private saving rate is somewhat below the average of the decade but well above its lows in 1983 and 1987. This is in sharp contrast with what the conventional measure of private saving suggests (Figure 9): according to this measure private saving rates in 1990 are at their lowest level since 1981. The conventional private saving measure is systematically higher than the one proposed. This is largely due to the inflation-adjustment of domestic and foreign interest income and the inclusion of the inflation tax in our measure; note that the private sector a not creditor of both the public and foreign sectors. As Figure 10 shows the discrepancy between the two measures widens with inflation. CONVENTIONAL MEASURES OF SAVIG. (In 1980 pesos as % of G)P) 0.35 0.2 0.15. IR 0.1 005. 0- -0.05 198019811982 19831984198519861987198819891990 YG" Private Saing 9, PLMc Sa w - Foreign SakV Figure 9 20 CONVENTIOAL AND PROPOSED PRIVATE SAVING WASURES (1980 PESOS). 0.35 0.3- C25 *~0.2 0.15 19801981 1982 198 19841985 19681987 1988 1989 1990 ye * Convatand Proposed Figure 10 3.3 Disagregation of Consumption Series A detailed disaggregation of consumption, including series with quarterly and monthly data frequencies, is provided in Annex C. Our analysis is limited to data with annual frequency and only considers disaggregation of consumption into durable consumption, non-durable consumption and services. In 1989-90 private consumption grew at an average annual real rate of 5.4%; as a consequence, in 1990 the private consumption-GDP ratio got close to the record level for the decade attained in 1980. It is useful to check whether any particular component of consumption explains this trend. As Figure 11 shows the shares of the three consumption components out of total consumption were relatively stable over the 1980-90 period. However, durable consumption increased 28% between 1988 and 1990 and represents about one- quarter of the increase in total consumption over the same period. Durable consumption cannot explain an important part of total consumption growth because durable consumption only represented about 11% of total consumption during the period: the average growth of non-durable and services over 1988-90 is still a high 4.9%, or about 2 percentage points faster than output growth. Private Consumption Components (as % of Private Consumption) 0.8. 0.5. 0.2 0.1- 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 "WS --a- Dwu -+- Nvv-Ou -w - S"vce Figure 11 3.4 Dissaqqregation of Disposable income As discussed above most of the variability of private saving rates is accounted for by changes in disposable income. Figure 4 shows all non-GDP items of disposable income as a proportion of GDP. The real interest on domestic debt (rB), other government revenue (OR), net income on foreign assets (iF-iDpr) and the inflation tax (inf*BM) all exhibit important changes during the 1980-90 period. A closer inspection at the behavior of these items is thus required to evaluate the factors underlying private saving patterns. The large drop in disposable income, and associated decline in private saving, in the early 1980's steamed principally from the sharp increase in the inflation tan and the sharp drop in the domestic public interest service in 1982, and the more than doubling of other government revenues (OR) in 1983 (Figure 4). The impressive OR record was mainly the result of large increases in public utility prices as part of the structural adjustment process in Mexico. Disposable income recovered partially towards the mid-1980s. By and large this was due to a partial reversal of the above described changes: a temporary reduction of OR in 1985 and 1986, a substantial reduction in the inflation tax and a larger domestic public interest service. Net real income from private foretgn assets also increased favored by a real peso depreciation and the growing size of the stock of foreign assets. The steep decline in disposable income in 1987 is accounted for by three factors: a reduction in the real domestic debt service, a reduction in net income from foreign assets, and a new increase in other government revenue (OR). The drop in the real domestic interest service, equivalent to about 4 percentage points of GDP in 1987, was spurred by surprise inflation which hit 22 the economy towards the end of the year. Negative real interest rates on domestic debt and the recovery of OR explain why, along with the decline in private saving, there was a sharp improvement in public saving during 1987. The reduction in income from foreign private assets is accounted for by a real peso appreciation (measured December to December) and lower external interest rates. The stabilization program launched in December 1987, called "Pacto", was extremeley successful in bringing down inflation. However, real domestic interest rates rose to unprecedentedly high levels, about 40% and 30% respectively In 1988 and 1989. Higher interest receipts from domestic government debt were the single most important factor behind the large increase of disposable income in 1988-89. Successfull stabilization was also associated with important changes in the public sector revenue structures the sharp fall in the inflation tax was mostly offset by increases in conventional tax revenue. The other volatile factor of disposable income relevant in the late 1980s was real income from foreign assets. The real peso appreciation in 1988 led to a sharp reduction in real income from foreign assets; this was followed by an increase as the real exchange rate stabilized in 1989. The deepening of fiscal adjustment and able domestic and foreign debt management combined to eventually bring down domestic real interest rates. 4 The sharp drop in disposable income in 1990 was in fact prompted by the associated decline in the domestic public interest service and, to a lesser degree, by a reduction in real income from foreign assets. Reduced income from foreign assets, in turn, stemmed from lower external interest rates and a new real peso appreciation in 1990. There was a decline in other government revenue but this was offset by a new increase in conventional tax revenue. In short, most of the variability of disposable income in 1980-90 was associated to volatile transfers between the public and private sectors which, thus, account for much of the observed complementarity between public and private saving. Real rnchange rate fluctuations, associated both with external shocks and the stabilization program in the late 1980s, were the other volatile factor explaining the variability of disposable income. The direct impact of real exchange rate fluctuations on private saving increased during the decade along with the stuck of private foreign assets. 4 For example, see Oks (1991). Bridean, R., B. Eggeratedt and S. van Wijnbergen, "Measuring Capital Flight in Mexici" mimeo, World Bank, 1991. Meller, P., E. Livacich and P. Arrau (1984) "Una revisi6n del milagro econ6mico chilenot 1976-1981" en Collecci6n Estudios CIEPLAN 15, Santiago. Oks, Daniel F. (1991) "DevaJuation Expectations and Interest Rates in Mexico: the Role of Domestic Uebt Management", Discussion Paper, LAC Series, World Bank. Annex Av A Revision of National Accounting Procedures in Mexico In this annex we briefly review national accounting procedures in Mexico in order to assess the measurement problems associated to its different components. The discussion below is based on what we have been able to learn about the Mexican national account system. Computation of the gross value of vroduction and value-added The first step to compute national accounts series comprises the computation of the Gross Value of Production (VP). Most countries, including Mexico, have surveys and statistics with quantum indices of production and value of production at current prices for several sectors of the economy. When no direct information about the VP at current prices is available, independently computed price indices of the different sectors are generally available. These statistics allow to compute good-quality data of VP in both real and nominal terms. The next step is to compute the value added by subtracting to the VP the intermediate purchases by firms. When there are no good surveys to provide this information directly (the surveys provide the information at current prices; e.g. industrial surveys), a commonly used methodology is to apply the fixed riefficients from the Input-Output Matrix. The Matrix provides the exact coefficient for the year in which the matrix was computed, which is normally the base year of the national account system. This methodology, however, could be inappropriate if the coefficients vary too much, something which often happens with large structural changes in the economy; and very specially, when trade liberalizations takes place. In Meller, Livacich and Arrau (1984) it is shown that after the trade liberalization of the late seventies in Chile, the value-added/VP coefficient was substantially reduced in the industrial sector, mainly due to the substitution of domestic value-added by imported inputs in the production process. The value-added of the industrial sector, therefore, was overestimated because the fix coefficient methodology did not account for this fact. This observation suqqests the urgent need to chana the base of the pational account system (compute a new input-output matrix) after a trade liberalization takes place. In 1985 Mexico started the process of trade liberalization; by 1990 it already was one of the most open developing countries in the world. Since the base year of the national account system is still 1980 the urgency for changing the base of the national account system becomes apparent. If our presumption is correct and the computation of value added is overestimated in Mexico, then the series of private saving are also overestimated, specially after 1985. However, for the purposes of this report we are unable to evaluate this problem as there is no information available which would allow us to do so. Distribution of total supply into its demand components The,most difficult part of computing the national accounts is the distribution of supply into its demand components. As we discuss below identifying the problems which may arise with the measurement of demand components is crucial to assess how reliable our private saving measure is. The supply of sector "i" is comprised by the VP of the sector "i" plus imports (M) originated abroad in that sector (e.g. gross value of production of the industrial sector plus imports of industrial products).S The total * Throughout the report we abstract from commercialization margin, which is the other component of the total supply at consumer prices. supply must be distributed over intermediate demand (ID) , final private consumption (C), government consumption (0), gross fixed capital formation (FKP), stocks accumulation (SA) and exports (X). The following table illustrate this description. Table A.1: Supply Value and Intern. Priv. Gov. Fix Stck. Prod. Imp. Demand Demand Cons. Cons. Inves. Accum. Exp. VP1 +MN =sector, =ID, + C + 01 + K + SA +1 VPj + N =sectorj= IDj + Cj + G + 7Kr + SA + Xj VP + M = Total = ID + C + G + FKP + SA + X The notation in consistent with equation (2) after we define Y = VP - ID, and I = PKP + SA. The usual problem with the distribution of demand components is that the relevant information is generally not available, and some assumptions must be made. The balance of payments accounts normally provide fairly good information on imports and exports. Except for the exchange rate measurement difficulties of transforming foreign denominated series into local currency accounts, these seriez are fairly accurate. This means that measured total supply is a good measure of actual supply of goods and services at the sector level. For several sectors (and/or products), however, the problems of assigning the total demand into its demand components is very difficult. The discussion below states why some series can be trusted more than others. Assigning total supply to the demand components can be facilitated by doing the supply/demand compatibilization at a level as disaggregated as possible. For instance, several firms, or even sectors, specialize in exports. Consequently the value of production would mostly be assigned to exports. The only uncertainty could be, if the commodity is storable, how much of total supply goes to stock accumulation. If good exports series are available, stock accumulation can be accurately obtained by difference (all produced goods not exported). Something similar could be done if the company produces mostly machinery, or inputs for some other sector, which are easy to assign due to the characteristics of the good. The value of production of the construction sector, for instance, is another sector which is mostly assigned to fixed capital formation, and does not produce mayor measurement problems to other components. Government consumption is another variables relatively easy to assign. G is mostly the value of productions of sectors associated to the government. These are typically public administration plus governmant health and education production (expenses). The more serious problems appear with those sectors or products which can go to several different demand compone"ts. Most food production, for instance, can go to intermediate demand (purchases of other firms), private consumption, to stock accumulation (if storable) and exports. Similar problems occur with several investment goods. While again exports are generally well measured, the distribution to the other components can be very cumbersome. 26 Total intermediate demand must add up to total intermediate purchases by firms. In general there is no good methodology to assign the portion of total supply that goes to intermediate demand (except when the characteristics of the good makes such assignment obvious). Again, there is heavy reliance on fixed coefficients ID/VP in those sectors or products where the assignment is not obvious. The fixed coefficients are known from the base year. Of course, applying fixed coefficients to most sectors would not produce in general a total intermediate demand equal to the total intermediate purchases of firms, so ad-hoc adjustments are necessary to produce such a match. In general however, because these coefficient are mostly determined by technological factors, this part will not produce too much deviation from actual figures. Besides, the aggregate intermediate demand must add up to aggregate intermediate purchases by firms, which means that at least at the aggregate level intermediate demand is "allegedly" well measured.' From the discussion so far we can conclude that with the exception of fix gross capital formation, private consumption and stocks accumulations, all other measured demand components are relatively accurate measures of actual series (at least at the aggregate level). Indeed, the series of investment, private consumption and stock accumulations are Potentially the ones with more measurement errors. Although looking at the good characteristics is often sufficient to differentiate between goods that should be assigned to investment or consumption, that is not enough to differentiate when a good goes to stock accumulation or is actually invested or consumed. In order to do that, we need to have good survey data on sales at the sector or company level. The difference between what is produced and what is sold is the stock accumulation in the case of domestically produced goods. With the total supply of forei.gn goods we have a similar problem. The total of goods imported is the supply of foreign goods available, but we need to know the actual sales from commerce (distributors of imported goods) in order to differentiate between stock accumulation and actual consumption/investment. Surveys on sales and stocks. therefore are the critical information needed to have a good distribution between investment/consumption and stocks accumulation. This leads to the issue of which data frequency is of better quality. Quarterly information is less accurate precisely because good- quality surveys on sales and stocks are not available at this frequency, and therefore the distribution between consumption, investment and stocks accumulation is more cumbersome. Even at the annual level this is a large problem, but presumably due to bettex surveys and monitoring at the year level, facilitated by the normal cycle of business reporting (balance sheets, tax payments, etc.), the annual data is better. Among the three noisy components (fixed investment, private consumption and stock accumulation), stock accumulation is likely to be the most noisy. The reason for that is that the lack of sales information normally require to use again fixed distribution coefficients from the base period. The coefficients are more likely to be stable or less variable for consumption and investment, and therefore stock accumulation is often the residual variable. In short, gross domestic product, exports, imports and government consumption are relatively well measured at the aggregate level. Thus, the summation of fixed investment, private consumption and stock accumulation is also accurate. However, the distribution of this summation among the three 6 We say "allegedly" because it is not obvious that intermediate purchases by firms is well measured as discussed above. However, we suspect that the most substantive measurement errors are not due these series. 22 components is relatively inaccurate, specially for stock accumulation. This problem is more serious in the case of quarterly data. Annex as Statistical Annex. Notation for Tables 8.1 and B.2 Table All a) and b) I aggregate investment Y gross domestic product (GDP) T total taxes C private consumption ona non-interest current public expenditure (national accounts) 0 non-interest current public expenditure (fiscal accounts) (N-Z)na trade deficit (national accounts) Erbop beginning of period commercial exchange rate Eravg average commercial exchange rate LIBOR foreign interest rate (2/3 of LIBOR plus 1/3 US CD rate) EcBal economic fiscal deficit Ipu public investment GDPd GDP deflator is nominal interest domestic public debt iDpun nominal interest on foreign public debt iBf nominal interest on domestic federal debt iDpufn nominal interest on foreign federal debt inf CPI inflation (december to December) inf-avg CPI inflation (average compared to beginning of period) c) Dpr private foreign debt F private foreign assets CACC current account balance iFo interest retained abroad (official) WR workers remittances int-exp interest received from abroad (official) iDn net foreign interest paid (excluding interest on private assets) US-WPI wholesale price index of US (M-X) trade deficit (SOP accounts) iD-g gross external interest paid D total foreign debt Dpu public foreign debt d) DD domestic debt CBD-BM commercial bank deposits at Bank of Mexico Cates Cetes interest rate (90 days to 1984, 28 days thereafter) CPI consumer price index MBASE monetary base iB domestic interest on public debt Table B.2. (% of GDP) SpfY private saving Sg/T public saving 2! Sf/Y foreign saving C/Y private consumption Yd/Y disposable income NFS/Y net factor service (see identity 2 in text) rB/Y real interest service on domestic debt iF/Y real interest on private foreign assets iDpr/Y real interest on private foreign ebt T/Y total taxes OR/Y otherpublic revenue (see identity 2 in text) inf*BM/Y inflation tax 30 TABLE 9.1. BASIC DATA. a) Current 10-9 pesos I Y T C Gna G (M-X)na ERbop ERavg LIBOR EcBat Ipu 1980 1214 4470 435 2909 449 395 101 22.802 22.95 12.5 -292.6 429.2 1981 1678 6128 582 3944 660 572 155 23.26 24.51 15 -797.1 789.4 1982 2244 9798 791 6037 1026 927 -491 26.2 57.44 11.6 -1524.3 995.9 1983 3710 17879 1399 10882 1574 1549 -1713 96.3 120.16 9 -1456.1 1338 1984 5853 29472 2322 18590 2722 2353 -2307 143.62 167.76 10 -2105.8 1984.8 1985 10034 47392 3783 30575 4374 3899 -2408 191.95 256.95 7.8 -3808.9 2867.4 1986 14489 79536 6582 54209 7208 6738 -3629 368.2 611.35 6.3 -11465 4773.8 1987 37164 193552 15275 126052 16505 15844 -13829 915.1 1366.7 6.3 -27788 10729 1988 83209 396073 37844 270751 32961 30165 -9150 2209.7 2250.3 7.1 -36383 17300 1989 117817 516710 52009 340023 54460 40226 -4410 2281 2453.2 8.5 -24619 20364 1990 131288 668691 76201 464964 75692 50878 3253 2641 2807.3 7.8 -15106 32701 1991 2945.4 GDPd is iDpun iBf iDpufn iBBM inf inf-avg 1980 1 107 51 54.9 22.1 0.13154 0.29781 0.1423 1981 1.260254 179 126 140.4 33.5 0.13154 0.28683 0.1354 1982 2.027819 481 324 406 109 0.20519 0.98873 0.3901 1983 3.862381 1383 829 1137 388 0.30656 0.80769 0.3717 1984 6.144968 2347 1163 1813 548 0.3174 0.59169 0.536 1985 9.631618 3705 1738 3114 893 0.15821 0.63744 0.2649 1986 16.79482 9598 3499 8653 2100 0.26953 1.0574 0.4288 1987 40.15946 29702 8494 27990 5967 0.41485 1.5916 0.6157 1988 81.01484 51982 14163 49258 10064 0.26063 0.51657 0.2895 1989 102.5043 47322 18028 44638 12736 0.0512 0.19697 0.086 1990 127.7021 45142 20426 39524 17885 0.02036 0.29929 0.1357 b) Current US$ miLLion Dpr F CACC iFo WR int-exp iOn US-UPI (N-X) iD-g D Dpu 1980 6680 6474 -10740 698 429.6 1022 5823 1 4345 6147 40522 33842 1981 7300 8614 -16052 946 564.3 1386 9045 1.0534 6053 9485 54195 46895 1982 10200 22376 -6221 904 591.9 1325 11782 1.070886 -5942 12203 73518 63318 1983 8100 33047 5418 873 712.5 1279 9697 1.090162 -14382 10103 83918 75818 1984 14800 37652 4238 1481 767.1 2074 11122 1.103353 -13892 11715 88176 73376 1985 16296 43746 1237 1417 797.7 1822 9751 1.11538 -9134 10156 86662 70366 1986 15745 50419 -1673 1072 901.9 1462 7952 1.07342 -5841 8342 91175 75430 1987 15103 52642 3967 1174 1030.3 1888 7383 1.121854 -10380 8097 94442 79339 1988 14148 57221 -2443 1306 1316.8 2507 7438 1.173571 -4106 8639 96056 81908 1989 5931 65177 -5447 1761 1406 2580 8459 1.216641 -1765 9278 94746 88815 1990 3999 68027 -6610 1796 1500 2632 8182 1.27723 1153 9018 88512 84513 1991 91787 8238L c) Constant 10-9 1980 pesos I Y C Gna (M-X)na 1980 1213.984 4470 2909 449 101 1981 1392.985 4862 3123 495 149 1982 1054.856 4832 3046 505 -226 1983 769.959 4629 2883 519 -458 1984 817.006 4796 2977 553 -450 1985 901.412 4920 3083 558 -379 1986 710.712 4736 3011 566 -464 1987 742.907 4820 2984 559 -531 1988 833.731 4889 3047 556 -448 1989 877.738 5041 3220 553 -387 1990 991.255 5236 3387 562 -309 31 (continued TabLe 8.1) d) MonthLy Data DD CBD-BM Cetes CPI MBASE i8 127.6 1980 1 300 348.7 20.36947 133.8 509 2.2 2 308.5 357.9 21.05882 136.9 506.1 2.9 3 297.7 365.5 23.51282 139.7 523.5 15.8 4 314.0 384.9 24.64602 142.1 531.8 7.4 5 326.3 386.4 24.65799 144.4 545.7 9.9 6 366.1 389.9 23.71503 147.3 563.1 7.5 7 365.6 421.8 22.95506 151.4 564 4.7 8 370.4 419.8 23.48905 154.6 593.8 5.5 9 375.7 430.6 25.95585 156.3 593.6 20.8 10 390.1 437.9 27.54375 158.6 596.7 7.2 11 410.2 451.9 28.86415 161.4 623 9 12 507.1 501.9 31.23694 165.6 647.7 13.9 1981 1 559.1 482.6 32.66126 171.0 718.1 4.2 2 568.2 499.9 32.52332 175.2 696.3 4.1 3 574.5 525.6 32.26028 178.9 717.5 22.7 4 607.0 534.6 32.02263 182.9 741.1 12.1 5 646.5 570.2 31.673 185.7 768.1 9 6 648.7 577.1 31.99764 188.3 804.6 11.4 7 673.1 610.9 35.01013 191.6 825.6 19.4 8 646.9 632.4 38.51424 195.6 878.6 11.3 9 652.4 650.4 39.00737 199.2 950 53 10 650.9 663.9 38.8515 203.6 905.6 9.2 11 697.3 702.3 38.29406 207.5 939.9 12.7 12 722.2 723.1 38.21641 213.1 1008.3 9.8 1982 1 808.8 752.5 39.42366 223.7 1041.9 5.1 2 795.8 996.8 41.92797 232.5 1059.6 30 3 837.1 1006.1 40.73063 241.0 1314.9 60.1 4 916.7 999.2 45.13605 254.1 1324 -13.1 5 865.1 1030.5 52.0214 268.4 1342.7 24.9 6 856.7 1050.7 63.1296 281.3 1443.5 34.1 7 902.7 1120.4 65.65092 295.8 1410.4 36 8 971.8 1324.6 69.94846 329.0 1494 54.6 9 1,151.1 1318.8 60.82577 346.5 1734.4 27.3 10 1,536.7 1352.0 51.32755 364.5 1751.1 49.2 11 1 741.5 1441.7 63.07097 382.9 1819.5 77.4 12 1,958.6 14320.0 72.31935 423.8 1943.9 95.5 1983 1 2,224.6 1537.2 75.59666 469.9 1983.4 77.5 2 2,099.2 1522.4 77.83877 495.1 2031.2 92.7 3 2,150.2 1587.3 82.77061 519.1 2016.9 89.2 4 2,095.7 1563.2 80.35522 552.0 2092.8 45.2 5 2,167.8 1620.0 81.0995 575.9 2081.5 104.1 6 2,201.9 1696.7 79.94448 597.7 2008.8 93 7 2,430.1 1733.5 77.74492 627.3 2203.6 125.7 8 2,611.6 1856.9 71.98349 651.6 2250.5 155.5 9 2,780.1 2005.6 70.43278 671.7 2392.6 -93 10 2,777.8 2057.8 67.45266 694.0 2517.5 340.9 11 3,284.1 2212.6 66.8256 734.7 2600.8 83.4 12 3,562.7 2392.1 66.75107 766.1 2799.6 269 1984 1 4,031.6 2470.9 65.4434 814.8 3136.3 149.3 2 4,263.7 2613.4 61.34552 857.8 3177 147.5 3 4,500.9 2774.0 55.72473 894.5 3307.4 249.6 4 4,713.8 2867.0 56.44791 933.2 3515.2 160 5 4,854.6 2965.8 61.14508 964.1 3647.9 222.5 6 5,043.8 2962.4 62.32483 999.0 3756.4 216.5 7 5,174.8 3129.3 62.32483 1031.8 3791.8 197.9 8 5,392.3 3238.5 61.93086 1061.1 3930.7 184.6 9 5,605.5 3283.6 60.47797 1092.7 4079.1 226.9 10 5,595.1 3416.4 58.01632 1130.9 4118.1 248.2 11 5,737.0 3316.6 57.88756 1169.7 4293.7 196.2 12 5,837.0 3619.4 60.04403 1219.4 4300.2 147.6 1985 1 6,295.0 3471.9 58.44612 1309.5 4857.9 217.8 2 6,579.8 3557.4 60.2175 1364.2 4572.5 170 3 6,758.8 3599.8 70.84223 1417,1 4688.7 207.6 4 6,985.4 3699.8 73.65235 1460.7 4808.1 272.1 5 7,172.5 3639.5 75.64315 1495.3 4858.9 225 6 7,418.5 3664.2 85.58158 1532.8 4859.2 189.1 7 7,816.7 3635.2 93.05923 1586.2 4945.8 315.9 8 8,099.3 3682.9 96.13993 1655.5 4919.3 282.4 9 8,458.6 3737.8 90.24547 1721.6 5018.3 403.5 10 8,800.7 3774.6 86.42308 1787.0 5064.3 385.7 11 8,968.4 3711.6 90.34425 1869.5 5194.1 319.7 12 9,299.4 3835.2 99.30865 1996.7 5299.9 716 32 (continued Tabte 9.1) 1986 1 10,369.3 3929.8 103.0683 2173.3 5744.9 584.1 2 10,746.3 3930.5 104.2414 2269.9 5747.5 535 3 11,358.1 4214.5 111.4125 2375.4 5786.8 543.4 4 12,056.5 4045.7 120.0722 2499.4 6114.8 797 5 13,054.2 4107.9 120.0722 2638.3 6021.1 628.5 6 13,495.3 4325.0 126.8887 2807.6 6135.8 717.2 7 14,002.3 4341.7 141.7965 2947.7 6402.3 1026.3 8 15,088.1 4217.- 152.5498 3182.7 6477.9 1006.9 9 16,202.1 4417.1 161.5177 3373.7 6449.7 1154.2 10 17,153.6 4574.9 162.9994 3566.5 6612.5 871.8 11 18,992.1 4767.0 154.4644 3807.5 7053.5 1104.2 12 21,062.5 5067.3 163.495 4108.2 7551.1 6?9.2 1987 1 24,045.8 4677.4 156.8765 4440.9 8535.3 19.V0.9 2 26,797.5 5265.4 157.3614 4761.3 8027.3 1483 3 29,667.1 5448.9 153.4815 5076.0 8613 1512.6 4 32,392.5 5545.0 148.2905 5520.1 9056 2233.2 5 35,755.2 5850.8 145.2557 5936.2 9622.6 1678.8 6 38,531.0 5530.6 145.2557 6365.7 10136.3 1961.1 7 42,622.5 6116.6 144.4445 6881.3 9719.5 2828 8 45,919.4 5489.1 142.2322 7443.7 10958.5 2370.7 9 49,577.3 5952.7 141.3616 7934.1 10321.2 2188 10 52,245.7 6255.9 141.6362 8595.2 11149.6 3454.5 11 55,477.3 5956.2 175.4704 9277.0 12257.3 3324.9 12 57,641.0 6441.9 225.5166 10647.2 12485 4676.5 1988 1 65,455.2 7513.3 337.4622 12293.5 14754.2 4523.3 2 69,732.9 7689.5 334.8554 13318.5 15535.7 5095.3 3 76,155.9 6526.6 155.2821 14000.9 15669.7 6639.4 4 85,685.0 8881.2 90.49468 14431.9 16001.4 6756.4 5 90,004.7 8975.7 65.49571 14711.1 188W9.7 4311.5 6 92,897.0 8739.2 49.61785 15011.2 19457.8 4187.2 7 92,120.6 8107.3 49.45614 15261.8 19887.2 3209.2 8 90,223.6 7728.0 50.93215 15402.2 19287.7 4196.2 9 91,558.7 5861.7 51.8242 15490.2 18593.3 2623 10 88,913.5 6589.0 55.92956 15608.4 17055.4 2458.1 11 86,677.2 5602.4 64.30508 15817.3 17462.4 3352.5 12 80,193.4 6689.2 68.16286 16147.3 18086.5 4630.2 1989 1 8,429.4 7620.7 65.68954 16542.6 20750.8 24T4.8 2 87,601.7 7027.5 63.07457 16767.1 20010.1 3375.6 3 89,826.7 7662.4 60.92198 16948.8 20217.2 4835.6 4 90,872.7 3699.0 64.5779 17202.3 20675.1 4623.3 5 91,997.3 3911.0 67.39447 17439.1 17352.2 3668.9 6 90,665.8 3982.0 75.48187 17650.9 16896.3 5633.4 7 94,582.4 4457.0 59.73052 17827.4 17751.2 5193.8 8 100,754.0 3516.0 41.58753 17997.3 18463.4 4896.3 9 100,812.1 2356.0 41.01552 18169.4 16623.0 3128.9 10 104,796.2 3480.0 46.06859 18438.1 16130.0 3164.5 11 107,433.9 4465.0 47.61535 18696.9 17681.0 4196.2 12 108,696.2 4152.0 49.89754 19327.9 19362.0 2131.1 1990 1 109,946.1 3652.0 50.99147 20260.7 22960.0 3554.7 2 113,982.1 3618.0 56.89494 20719.5 19889 3902.8 3 117,197.8 3529.0 59.12228 21084.8 19850 5353 4 122,330.4 4428.0 55.97541 21405.7 20637 4759.6 5 122,330.0 4095.0 44.63657 21779.2 21389 5627.9 6 126,653.3 3054.0 41.07123 22258.9 21453 535.6 7 128,294.0 4387.0 35.96261 22664.8 21476 2722.42 8 133,891.7 2901.0 34.70242 23051.0 22138 2835.26 9 133,331.0 3491.0 35.27755 23379.6 21015 3019.4 10 133,419.0 3981.0 33.34718 23715.7 21719 3924.6 11 135,706.8 4392.0 28.30616 24345.4 23526 3206.64 12 141,514.9 5543.0 29.80741 25112.7 25586 2763.96 1 31134 33 TABLE 8.2: SAVING ESTIMATES AND COMPONENTS a) Current pesos (% of GDP) Sp/Y Sg/Y Sf/Y C/Y Yd/Y NFS/Y rB/Y iF/Y iDpr/Y T/Y OR/Y inf*BM/ 1980 0.177 0.082 0.013 0.651 0.828 0.004 0.003 -0.004 -0.003 0.097 0.057 -0.016 1981 0.195 0.042 0.037 0.644 0.839 0.005 0.003 0.000 0.001 0.095 0.047 *0.016 1982 0.183 -0.061 0.107 0.616 0.799 0.004 -0.034 0.064 0.030 0.081 0.042 -0.074 1983 0.136 0.185 -0.113 0.609 0.744 -0.004 -0.006 -0.018 -0.003 0.078 0.126 -0.035 1984 0.151 0.144 -0.096 0.631 0.782 -0.004 0.000 -0.014 -0.005 0.079 0.116 -0.018 1985 0.173 0.041 -0.002 0.645 0.818 -0.007 -0.004 0.047 0.019 0.080 0.097 *0.035 1986 0.148 0.018 0.017 0.682 0.829 -0.002 -0.016 0.066 0.023 0.083 0.082 -0.036 1987 0.075 0.190 -0.073 0.651 0.726 -0.006 -0.057 -0.002 0.000 0.079 0.112 -0.028 1988 0.105 0.185 -0.080 0.684 0.789 -0.005 0.050 -0.087 -0.020 0.096 0.099 -0.005 1989 0.219 0.013 -0.004 0.658 0.877 -0.004 0.060 0.014 0.001 0.101 0.095 -0.005 1990 0.101 0.100 -0.005 0.695 0.796 -0.010 0.013 -0.020 -0.001 0.114 0.086 -0.008 b) Constant 1980 pesos (% of GDP) Sp/Y Sg/Y Sf/Y C/Y Yd/Y NFS/Y rB/Y iF/Y iDpr/Y T/Y OR/Y infBM/Y 1980 0.177 0.082 0.013 0.651 0.828 0.004 0.003 -0.004 -0.003 0.097 0.057 -0.016 1981 0.196 0.048 0.042 0.642 0.839 0.005 0.003 0.000 0.001 0.095 0.047 -0.016 1982 0.169 -0.060 0.110 0.630 0.799 0.004 -0.034 0.064 0.030 0.081 0.042 -0.074 1983 0.122 0.161 -0.116 0.623 0.744 -0.004 -0.006 -0.018 -0.003 0.078 0.126 -0.035 1984 0.161 0.121 -0.112 0.621 0.782 -0.004 0.000 -0.014 -0.005 0.079 0.116 -0.018 1985 0.191 0.020 -0.028 0.627 0.818 -0.007 -0.004 0.047 0.019 0.080 0.097 *0.035 1986 0.193 -0.011 -0.036 0.636 0.829 -0.002 -0.016 0.066 0.023 0.083 0.082 -0.036 1987 0.107 0.159 -0.112 0.619 0.726 -0.006 -0.057 -0.002 0.000 0.079 0.112 -0.028 1988 0.165 0.155 -0.149 0.623 0.789 -0.005 0.050 -0.087 -0.020 0.096 0.099 -0.005 1989 0.238 0.009 -0.072 0.639 0.877 -0.004 0.060 0.014 0.001 0.101 0.095 -0.005 1990 0.149 0.106 -0.068 0.647 0.796 -0.010 0.013 -0.020 -0.001 0.114 0.087 *0.008 34 Annex Ct Ouarterly and Monthly Private Consumption Series In this annex we describe the sources of quarterly and monthly consumption series as well as the approach followed to identify some of their components. We also assess potential discrepancies by frequeucy of data. The Bank of Mexico provides quarterly indices of GDP and demand components on a regular basis. When those indices are applied to the 1980 figures of the national accounts we obtain quarterly demand components expressed in 1980 pesos. Although the quarterly GDP obtained in this way is not the official quarterly GDP (which is provided regularly by INEGI), the demand components of GDP computed by Banco de Mexico are the only available so far. The total quarterly private consumption index published by the Bank of Mexico is actually computed (but not published) at a fairly disaggregated level. The disaggregation is provided in Table C.l. As shown in the table, the series comprises domestically produced private consumption, imported private consumption and a small item called not foreign purchases which correct for cross border net consumption (foreigners in Mexico and Mexicans abroad), normally associated with frontier transactions not correctly detected when computing the two mayor items. Domestically produced private goods are also disaggregated into agriculture consumption, industrial consumption (durables and non-durable, there the latter is further disaggregated into food and non-food), and services. The imported private consumption series is not disaggregated further by the Bank of Mexico. Nevertheless, we have been able to separate durable and non-durable private imports by applying the share of durable imports in total consumption imports (both expressed in US dollars) to the imported consumption series in 1980 pesos. The share of durable imports in dollars is a good proxy for the share of real imported durable consumption if the relative prices in dollars have not change significantly over the period (something which is not very likely). Table C.2 provides the series of dollar imports of private consumers employed to break down the imported consumption series in Table C.1. The share of quarterly durable imports (adding the months) over total quarterly imports, is used to separate durable and non-durable imported consumption. Table C.3 provides the quarterly series of durable, non durable and services. Comparison of Ouarterly and Annual Series. Here we compare of quarterly and annual consumption series. As mentioned in Annex A, quarterly information is likely to be more inaccurate than annual information. In order to evaluate possible mismeasuremenz errors at the quarterly level, we compare the annual (official) series from INEGI with the quarterly series jy the Banco de Mexico. Table C.4 provides this information for the period 1980-90. We can see that in general the quarterly information does not deviate much from the official series. Although some underestimation of the consumption series is apparent in the last four years, which at most represents 3% of annual consumption in 1990. Consequently. the quarterly series of consumption from the Bank of Mexico can be used with high confidence. Comparison of Monthly and Quarterly Consumption Series. Although the Bank of Mexico does not produce a monthly version of its quarterly index, most of the basic information used to compute the quarterly series is available on a monthly basis. Officials in the Bank of Mexico kindly responded positively to our request for the monthly data and provided the series for consumption of domestically produced goods shown in Table C.5. To complete the series we have computed a series of imported consumption in 1980 pesos by deflating the dollar series in Table C.2 by a dollar price index of private imported goods. To separate durable and non-durable consumption we 35 use the same procedure described above for the quarterly information. We could not obtain a monthly version of the net foreign purchases series, but the latter represents a negligible part of the quarterly series (see Table C.1). Table C.6 compares the monthly and quarterly series of consumption. We can see that the domestic components are very close, always within the error order of 2%. This implies that we have a fairly accurate monthly version of the domestic component of the quarterly series. Our imported proxy, however, differs substantially from the quarterly series of the Banco de Mexico. Nevertheless, imported private consumption represents a very low share of total private consumption, between 2% and 6%. In short, total consumption based on monthly data does not differ too much from the quarterly series, particularly, when we leave aside the imported component. Unlike the quarterly series, the monthly series in the Table C.6 does not go through the process of compatibilization of demand and supply described in Annex A, and therefore is likely to be more "noisy" than the quarterly data. (This could explain the high divergence of our imported proxy.) TABLE Cl : QUARTERLY PRIVATE CONSUMPTION SERIES (billons $ 1980) GOODS AND SERVICES CONSUMED IN DOMESTIC MARKET DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION GOODS IMPORTED CONSUMPTION GOODS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS NET NON-DURABLE GOODS NON FO- AGRI- DURAB NO- SERVI- DURAB. DURAS. REING YEAR CULT GOOD FOODS FOOD TOTAL TOTAL CES TOTAL GOODS GOODS TOTAL TOTAL PURC TOTAL 1980.1 257.8 277.0 539.0 772.3 1311.3 1588.3 914.8 2760.9 28.3 22.4 50.7 2811.6 -27.3 2784. 1980.2 223.4 305.2 548.3 764.7 1313.0 1618.2 913.5 2755.1 41.5 29.4 70.9 2826.0 -6.2 2819. 1980.3 253.3 291.0 564.5 776.5 1341.0 1632.0 939.4 2824.7 61.4 42.3 103.7 2928.4 15.4 2943. 1980.4 311.1 307.1 584.0 806.6 1390.6 1697.7 951.1 2959.9 71.0 58.1 129.1 3089.0 6.5 3095. 1981.1 256.4 311.8 546.2 805.3 1351.5 1663.3 956.2 2875.9 41.5 34.9 76.4 2952.3 -4.6 2947. 1981.2 231.5 333.2 573.1 815.7 1388.8 1722.0 966.8 2920.3 43.9 30.3 74.2 2994.5 18.2 3012. 1981.3 268.1 324.6 614.8 828.5 1443.3 1767.9 992.1 3028.1 71.9 30.7 102.6 3130.7 37.6 3168. 1981.4 338.4 315.1 598.4 866.3 1464.7 1779.8 994.5 3112.7 77.0 41.0 118.0 3230.7 30.7 3261.4 1982.1 295.9 313.1 586.1 843.1 1429.2 1742.3 992.3 3030.5 38.3 29.3 67.6 3098.1 -26.1 3072.0 1982.2 255.8 315.5 584.3 872.5 1456.8 1772.3 994.8 3022.9 33.8 22.4 56.2 3079.1 -17.1 3062.0 1982.3 268.5 278.3 561.1 857.5 1418.6 1696.9 1006.4 2971.8 26.9 16.5 43.4 3015.2 -22.2 2993.0 1982.4 283.8 266.8 566.8 844.0 1410.8 1677.6 994.5 2955.9 16.9 10.3 27.2 2983.1 -28.1 2955.0 1983.1 268.1 249.4 538.2 614.3 1352.5 1601.S 1006.9 2876.9 13.4 6.0 19.4 2896.3 -83.9 2812.4 1983.2 253.3 255.0 547.3 842.2 1389.5 1644.5 1008.8 2906.6 14.1 7.4 21.5 2928.1 -58.0 2870.1 1983.3 261.3 224.2 525.0 825.6 1350.6 1574.8 1024.9 2861.C 13.2 7.1 20.3 2881.3 -40.5 2840.8 1983.4 341.3 227.9 493.3 852.2 1345.5 1573.4 1026.2 2940.9 8.7 7.3 16.0 2956.9 -45.7 2911.2 1984.1 284.1 232.1 521.6 863.2 1384.8 1616.9 1027.0 2928.0 13.4 11.2 24.6 2952.6 -63.9 2888.7 1984.2 265.7 249.1 517.5 848.2 1365.7 1614.8 1017.2 2897.7 13.2 10.7 23.9 2921.6 -38.3 2883.3 1984.3 286.8 252.9 555.9 843.1 1399.0 1651.9 1029.5 2968.2 16.5 9.8 26.3 2994.5 -21.8 2972.7 1984.4 339.7 265.8 555.5 865.3 1420.8 1686.6 1034.7 3061.0 19.2 11.2 30.4 3091.4 -24.7 3066.7 1985.1 278.4 270.7 548.6 892.1 1440.7 1711.4 1040.7 3030.5 18.5 11.3 29.8 3060.3 -40.6 3019.7 1985.2 283.6 280.6 572.3 885.2 1458.0 1738.6 1042.2 3064.4 19.8 14.3 34.1 3098.5 -16.3 3082.2 1985.3 301.0 276.9 597.9 874.6 1472.5 1749.4 1046.9 3097.3 20.8 11.8 32.6 3129.9 -18.9 3111.0 1985.4 349.0 288.5 579.5 912.4 1491.9 1780.4 1031.0 3160.4 21.9 15.2 37.1 3197.5 -33.1 3164.4 1986.1 287.5 247.8 518.7 921.6 1440.3 1688.1 1034.8 3010.4 19.4 9.2 28.6 3039.0 -51.1 2987.9 1986.2 271.4 276.4 560.0 927.6 1487.6 1764.0 1042.2 3077.6 16.1 7.1 23.2 3100.8 -35.9 3064.9 1986.3 293.3 245.9 550.9 885.2 1436.1 1682.0 1052.4 3027.7 17.8 7.2 25.0 3052.7 -30.1 3022.6 1986.4 344.0 228.7 544.2 905.0 1449.2 1677.9 1037.5 3059.4 18.8 11.6 30.4 3089.8 -45.6 3044.2 1987.1 288.9 229.7 504.1 911.3 1415.4 1645.1 1045.9 2979.9 12.1 7.3 19.4 2999.3 -72.4 2926.9 1987.2 277.9 263.4 534.7 900.3 1435.0 1698.4 1048.8 3025.1 13.6 6.8 20.4 3045.5 -44.5 3001.0 1987.3 307.1 257.9 558.1 872.7 1430.8 1688.7 1068.2 3064.0 13.8 7.3 21.1 3085.1 -30.8 3054.3 1987.4 359.4 273.2 584.3 911.4 1495.7 1768.9 1065.4 3193.7 20.4 12.3 32.7 3226.4 -40.5 3185.9 1988.1 288.7 252.2 520.5 882.6 1403.1 1655.3 1066.4 3010.4 19.5 7.2 26.7 3037.1 -55.7 2981.4 1988.2 287.8 276.4 533.9 894.0 1427.9 1704.3 1059.9 3052.0 33.0 10.5 43.5 3095.5 -21.1 3074.4 1988.3 299.8 270.3 554.1 863.7 1417.8 1688.1 1074.7 3062.6 40.3 14.7 55.0 3117.6 -6.3 3111.3 1988.4 339.0 292.8 610.0 932.4 1542.4 1835.2 1075.7 3249.9 52.2 24.2 76.4 3326.3 -1.6 3324.7 1989.1 279.4 272.3 572.3 931.2 1503.5 1775.8 1087.7 3142.9 44.3 22.6 66.9 3209.8 -21.7 3188.1 1989.2 273.2 300.4 621.6 945.9 1567.5 1867.9 1091.5 3232.6 57.8 28.9 86.7 3319.3 -13.6 3305.7 1989.3 296.5 299.5 610.6 932.9 1543.5 1843.0 1113.8 3253.3 47.7 28.2 75.9 3329.2 -5.3 3323.9 1989.4 305.2 316.2 618.5 970.4 1588.9 1905.1 1118.4 3328.7 70.6 37.5 108.1 3436.8 -8.9 3427.9 1990.1 279.4 285.8 605.4 978.0 1583.4 1869.2 1127.7 3276.3 56.0 31.5 87.5 3363.8 -19.9 3343.9 1990.2 273.2 332.6 631.8 975.0 1606.8 1939.4 1130.5 3343.1 70.2 29.5 99.7 3442.8 -1.1 3441.7 1990.3 314.6 332.3 638.9 970.1 1609.0 1941.3 1157.5 3413.4 74.3 41.5 115.8 3529.2 6.3 3535.5 1990.4 323.5 348.4 679.8 1003 1682.6 2031.0 1157.5 3512.0 87.3 51.4 138.7 3650.7 12.7 3663.4 37 TABLE C2: IMPORTED PRIVATE CONSUMPTION GOODS (thousand dollars) NON BASIC BASIC NON YEAR MONTH GOODS DURABLES DURABLES TOTAL TOTAL 1980 JAN 2256 36813 35289 72102 74358 1980 FEB 3626 4C*15 33945 80260 83886 1980 MAR 3447 49331 35691 85022 88469 1980 APR 4754 52184 33451 85635 90389 1980 MAY 3885 48668 37972 86640 90525 1980 JUN 3762 50216 35791 86007 89769 1980 JUL 4126 55567 37006 92573 96699 1980 AUG 4486 58908 37096 96004 100490 1980 SEP 3553 58612 45317 103929 107482 1980 OCT 5026 69703 60100 129803 134829 1980 NOV 4326 70690 51699 122389 126715 1980 DEC 5890 72997 62988 135985 141875 1981 JAN 4531 52711 49278 101989 106520 1981 FEB 4131 54522 50130 104652 108783 1981 MAR 5182 71228 50410 121638 126820 1981 APR 605i 66060 52403 118463 124516 1981 MAY 5363 70237 49700 119937 125300 1981 JUN 7452 75103 43531 118634 126086 1981 JUL 5499 77186 45878 123064 128563 1981 AUG 6853 97358 42503 139861 146714 1981 SEP 6797 128297 40935 169232 176029 1981 OCT 7505 105574 56109 161683 169188 1981 NOV 6798 79569 49598 129167 135965 1981 DEC 9327 95775 44008 139783 149110 1982 JAN 5853 58675 53554 112229 118082 1982 FEB 7058 60525 44438 104963 112021 1982 MAR 4555 62838 40871 103709 108264 1982 APR 5304 59718 40489 100207 105511 1982 MAY 3031 48382 34182 82564 85595 1982 JUN 1950 53870 32351 86221 88171 1982 JUL 2079 42055 32984 75039 77118 1982 AUG 1532 40442 21960 62402 63934 1982 SEP 1525 26282 11653 37935 39460 1982 OCT 3085 23785 13658 37443 40528 1982 NOV 1351 11713 7095 18808 20159 1982 DEC 4599 13030 8933 21963 26562 38 (cont. TABLE C2) NON BASIC BASIC NON YEAR MONTH GOODS DURABLES DURABLES TOTAL TOTAL 1983 JAN 692 8188 4782 12970 13662 1083 FEB 683 9918 3602 13520 14203 1983 MAR 1502 8299 3497 11796 13298 1983 APR 2242 7600 3212 10812 13054 1983 MAY 1347 10148 5444 15592 16939 1983 JUN 1734 12745 7258 20003 21737 1983 JUL 3048 16472 7457 23929 26977 1983 AUG 2694 12812 6166 18978 21672 1983 SEP '728 5727 5290 11017 13745 1983 OCT 2310 9088 5376 14464 16774 1983 NOV 3138 8205 8592 16797 19935 1983 DEC 5443 10031 9077 19108 24551 1984 JAN 3056 7177 4227 11404 14460 1984 FEB 2765 9238 6727 15965 18730 1984 MAR 5526 10678 11588 22266 27792 1984 APR 4350 9784 10578 20362 24712 1984 MAY 5027 12249 7591 19840 24867 1984 JUN 5992 10845 8686 19531 25523 1984 JUL 4632 10650 6829 17479 22111 1984 AUG 5257 15432 7834 23266 28523 1984 SEP 5877 11343 7399 18742 24619 1984 OCT 6631 18480 8499 26979 33610 1984 NOV 6502 17282 11280 28562 35064 1984 DEC 7974 18703 12038 30741 38715 1985 JAN 5646 13777 7217 20994 26640 1985 FEB 9923 14222 9133 23355 33278 1985 MAR 14992 19410 12566 31976 46968 1985 APR 10844 18048 13449 31497 42341 1985 MAY 13884 19995 14182 34177 48061 1985 JUN 8246 15542 11235 26777 35023 1985 JUL 8743 20590 11491 32081 40824 1985 AUG 8732 20891 11329 32220 40952 1985 SEP 8096 19921 12144 32065 40161 1985 OCT 10417 29679 15146 44825 55242 1985 NOV 10723 25098 18013 43111 53834 1985 DEC 9652 26658 23508 50166 59818 39 (cont. TABLE C2) NON BASIC BASIC NON YEAR MONTH GOODS DURABLES DURABLES TOTAL TOTAL 1986 JAN -3169 26858 11061 37919 34750 1986 FEB 6974 21378 11774 33152 40126 1986 MAR 5706 21299 10364 31663 37369 1986 APR 7184 25438 11902 37341 44525 1986 MAY 6190 21522 8615 30137 36327 1986 JUN 5769 20730 9361 30091 35860 1986 JUL 6722 27777 9355 37132 43854 1986 AUG 6559 17821 8150 25971 32530 1986 SEP 5282 17599 7949 25548 30830 1986 OCT 4613 21135 10807 31942 36555 1986 NOV 4136 17544 10050 27594 31730 1986 DEC 6498 19718 15146 34864 41362 1987 JAN 3007 13679 80188 21767 24774 1987 FEB 3410 15433 8505 23938 27348 1987 MAR 4383 19128 12390 31518 35901 1987 APR 3321 20439 8648 29087 32408 1987 MAY 4285 18070 9866 27936 32221 1987 JUN 3832 20219 10677 30896 34728 1987 JUL 3760 20797 11622 32319 36079 1987 AUG 4031 22977 10994 33971 38002 1987 SEP 3921 23722 12855 36577 40498 1987 OCT 6360 29071 14303 43374 49734 1987 NOV 9312 29835 17553 47388 56700 1987 DEC 12073 36451 25911 62362 74435 1988 JAN 6561 27*83 11424 38607 45168 1988 FEB 7329 39764 14577 54341 61670 1988 MAR 5677 51240 17811 69051 74728 1988 APR 7987 58404 22085 80489 88476 1988 MAY 10025 71175 19439 90614 100639 1988 JUN 20860 79026 24888 103914 124774 1988 JUL 38770 70605 28199 98804 137574 1988 AUG 43126 84621 26987 111608 154734 1988 SEP 40627 74672 28495 103167 143794 1988 OCT 41626 88184 34498 122682 164308 1988 NOV 36422 116576 54099 170675 207097 1988 DEC 46061 116250 59995 176245 222306 40 (cont. TABLE C2) NON BASIC BASIC NON YEAR MONTH GOODS DURABLES DURABLES TOTAL TOTAL 1989 JAN 22833 74396 38370 112766 135599 1989 FEB 21251 83443 46982 130425 151676 1989 MAR 24809 91819 42428 134247 159056 1989 APR 26011 108300 50386 158686 184697 1989 MAY 29664 106827 52803 159630 189294 1989 JUN 31116 110822 59447 170269 201385 1989 JUL 27999 89911 53856 143767 171766 1989 AUG 29516 108746 66263 175009 204525 1989 SEP 24915 117306 66308 183614 208529 1989 OCT 34036 150132 80906 231038 265074 1989 NOV 30374 178524 85623 264147 294521 1989 DEC 32118 152687 89236 241923 274041 1990 JAN 26729 101042 60404 161446 188175 1990 FEB 25690 100592 56045 156637 182327 1990 MAR 33560 116693 62243 178876 212436 1990 APR 24907 122934 56463 179397 204304 1990 MAY 30142 142755 621b5 204910 235052 1990 JUN 38248 184784 70875 255659 293907 1990 JUL 29183 155719 84472 240191 269374 1990 AUG 51876 155397 88954 244351 296227 1990 SEP 28941 152193 85360 237553 266494 1990 OCT 43195 211963 124282 336245 379440 1990 NOV 69677 223872 134247 358119 427796 1990 DEC 53210 192588 111255 303843 357053 1991 JAN 78483 145472 85324 230796 309279 1991 FEB 74775 147473 86168 233641 308416 1991 MAR 49131 154257 80416 234673 283804 41 TABLE CS: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION (billions $ 1980) NON- YEAR TOTAL DURABLES DURABLES SERVICES 1980.1 2784.3 305.29 1564.21 914.80 1980.2 2819.8 346.67 2473.13 913.50 1980.3 2943.8 352.36 2591.44 939.40 1980.4 3095.5 378.07 2717.43 951.10 1981.1 2947.7 353.33 2594.37 956.20 1981.2 3012.7 3'7.13 2635.57 966.80 1981.3 3168.3 396.50 2771.80 992.10 1981.4 3261.4 392.08 2869.32 994.50 1982.1 3072.0 351.45 2720.55 992.30 1982.2 3062.0 349.34 2712.66 994.80 1982.3 2S93.0 305.22 2687.78 1006.40 1982.4 2955.0 283.68 2671.32 994.50 1983.1 2812.4 262.78 2649.62 1006.90 1983.2 2870.1 269.13 2600.97 1008.80 1983.3 2840.8 237.38 2603.42 1024.90 1983.4 2911.2 236.58 2674.62 1026.20 1984.1 2888.7 245.53 2643.17 1027.00 1984.2 2883.3 262.25 2621.05 1017.20 1984.3 2972.7 269.45 2703.25 1029.50 1984.4 3066.7 284.99 2781.71 1034.70 1985.1 3019.7 2L9.21 2730.49 1040.70 1985.2 3082.2 300.36 2781.84 1042.20 1985.3 3111.0 297.6 2813.33 1046.90 1985.4 3164.4 310.38 2854.02 1031.00 1986.1 2987.9 267.16 2720.74 1034.80 1986.2 3064.9 292.50 2772.40 1042.20 1986.3 3022.6 263.72 2758.88 1052.40 1986.4 3044.2 247.51 2796.69 1037.50 1987.1 2926.9 241.82 2685.08 1045.90 1987.2 3001.0 277.03 2723.97 1048.80 1987.3 3054.3 271.74 2782.56 1068.20 1987.4 3185.9 293.56 2892.34 1065.40 1988.1 2981.4 271.68 2709.72 1066.40 1988.2 3074.4 309.40 2765.00 1059.90 1988.3 3111.3 310.62 2800.68 1074.70 1988.4 3324.7 345.03 2979.67 1075.70 1989.1 3188.1 316.55 2871.55 1087.70 1989.2 3305.7 358.24 2947.46 1091.50 1989.3 3323.9 347.24 2976.66 1113.80 1989.4 3427.9 386.79 3041.11 1118.40 1990.1 3343.9 341.84 3002.06 1127.70 1990.2 3441.7 402.78 3038.92 1130.50 1990.3 3535.5 406.60 3128.90 1157.50 1990.4 3663.4 435.72 3227.68 1157.50 42 TABLE C4: COMPARISON OF ANNUAL AND QUATERLY PRIVATE CONSUMPTION SERIES (billons $ 1980) YEAR ANNUAL QUARTERLY (1) (2) (1)1(2) 1980 2909 2910.85 0.999 1981 3123 3097.525 1.008, 1982 3046 3020.5 1.008 1983 2883 2858.625 1.008 1984 2977 2952.85 1.008 1985 3083 3094.325 0.996 1986 3011 3029.9 0.994 1987 2984 3042.025 0.981 1988 3047 3122.95 0.976 1989 3220 3311.4 0.973 1990 3387 3496.125 0.969 43 TABLE C5: GOODS AND SERVICES CONSUMED IN DOMESTIC MARKET (millons pesos 1980) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS NON-DURABLE GOODS AGRI- DURAB. SERVI- YEAR CULTUR GOODS FOOD NON-FOOD TOTAL TOTAL CES TOTAL Jan-80 230,979 273,521 786,874 533,698 1,320,572 1,594,092 912,467 2,737,538 Feb-80 211,938 268,335 772,156 536,963 1,309,119 1,577,455 914,512 2,703,905 Mar-80 330,483 297,630 771,995 562,150 1,334,145 1,631,775 917,421 2,879,679 Apr-80 233,458 292,335 764,889 531,616 1,296,505 1,588,840 911,597 2.733,895 May-80 224,306 310,911 773,880 570,459 1,344.339 1,655,249 914,323 2,793,878 Jun-80 212,46 320,694 770,570 557,346 1,327,917 1,648,611 914,580 2,775,627 Jul-80 238,903 315,671 772,904 574,888 1,347,791 1,663,463 939,504 2,841,869 Aug-80 251,663 298,738 796,873 574,463 1,371,335 1,670,073 950,131 2,871,867 Sep-80 269,334 267,620 776,415 564,046 1,340,461 1,608,081 928,565 2,805,980 Oct-80 275,778 301,885 801,971 592,865 1,394,836 1,696,721 943,606 2,916,104 Nov-80 275,778 315,549 788,603 604,054 1,392,657 1,708,206 947,727 2,931.710 Dec-80 352,770 312,795 843,479 573,817 1,417,295 1,730,090 961,968 3,044,828 Jan-81 234,000 299,820 820,704 542,327 1,363,031 1,662,851 952,439 2,849,290 Feb-81 197,017 304,431 787,957 535,924 1,323,881 1.628,312 957,900 2,783,230 Mar-81 338,182 338,501 822,694 576,270 1,398,965 1,737,466 958,261 3,033,909 Apr-81 239,606 317,428 815,947 535,925 1,351,872 1,669,300 964,221 2,873,127 May-81 230,707 341,098 811,726 594,798 1,406,524 1,747,622 962,316 2,940,644 Jun-81 224,187 348,542 834,083 604,704 1,438,788 1,787.329 973,863 2,985,380 Jul-81 265,437 355,874 822,310 622,695 1,445,005 1,800.880 992,628 3,058,944 Aug-81 271,253 324,497 839,568 633,825 1,473,393 1,797,890 1,001,966 3,071,109 Sep-81 267,610 301,845 838,926 608,316 1,447,241 1,749,086 981,706 2,998,403 Oct-81 295,427 315,184 855,519 613,799 1,469,318 1,784,502 985,572 3,065,500 Nov-81 295,427 325,221 867,683 620,013 1,487,696 1,812,917 994,558 3,102,901 Dec-81 378,494 313,431 888,009 580,569 1,468,578 1,782,009 1,003,371 3,163,874 Jan-82 266,742 294,466 855,782 571,421 1,427,203 1,721,669 990,001 2,978,411 Feb-82 264,526 293,250 813,486 572,416 1,385,902 1,679,152 982,945 2,926,623 Mar-82 356,432 357,481 870,131 635,250 1,505,381 1,862,862 1.003,954 3,223,248 Apr-82 265,289 313,601 885,815 543,559 1,429,374 1,742,975 1,001.044 3,009,308 May-82 259,655 318,104 878,839 615,798 1,494,637 1,812,741 993,120 3,065,516 Jun-82 242,456 320,929 871,143 607,698 1,478,841 1,799,769 990,236 3,032,462 Jul-82 252,367 293,404 879,999 548,945 1,428,944 1,722,348 1,014,726 2,989,441 Aug-82 266,282 283,952 838.564 629,683 1,468,248 1,752,200 1,020,172 3,038,654 Sep-82 286,850 267,410 830,892 559,360 1,390,252 1,657,662 984.302 2,928,814 Oct-82 250,610 266,614 843,952 581,055 1,425,007 1,691,621 991,892 2.934,124 Nov-82 250,610 292,898 872,238 568,433 1,440,671 1,733,569 989,037 2,973,217 Dec-82 314,410 249,829 872,238 521,205 1,393,443 1,643,272 1,002,571 2,960,253 44 (cont. TABLE CS) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS NON-DURABLE GOODS AGRI- DURAB. SERVI- YEAR CULTUR GOODS FOOD NON-FOOD TOTAL TOTAL CES TOTAL Jan-83 243,156 242,876 842,764 525,732 1,368,496 1,611,372 999,791 2,854,31 Feb-83 222,416 247,131 802,331 549,560 1,351,890 1,599,022 1,006,132 2,827,570 Mar-83 338,728 267,771 814,325 550,810 1,365,136 1,632,907 1,014,777 2,986,41 Apr-83 263,389 269,277 835,893 553,599 1,389,492 1,658,769 1,012,188 2,934,34 May-83 254,888 258,096 846,361 551,177 1,397,538 1,655,634 1,008,370 2,918.892 Jun-83 241,623 251,410 862,955 554,493 1,417,448 1,668,858 1,005,843 2,916,324 Jul-83 250,582 231,273 842,511 548,854 1,391,366 1,622,639 1,032,539 2,905,75 Aug-83 260,995 239,274 849,189 545,327 1,394,516 1,633,790 1,037,441 2,932,22 Sep-83 272,324 216,074 803,444 519,234 1,322,S77 1,538,752 1,004,721 2,815,79 Oct-83 300,483 227,564 822,234 529,087 1,351,321 1,578,885 1,017,067 2,896,43 Nov-83 300,483 237,757 867,060 522,929 1,389,988 1,627,746 1,024,991 2,953,22 Dec-83 380,824 231,232 887,131 481,635 1,368,766 1,519,998 1,036,542 3,017.364 Jan-84 259,278 224,670 873,743 511,277 1,385,020 1,,09,690 1,021,566 2,890,534 Feb-84 219,423 236,121 853,360 531,984 1,385,344 1,621,465 1,028,138 2,869,026 Mar-84 373,599 245,711 884,538 567,989 1,452,526 1,698,237 1,031,295 3,103,132 Apr-84 275,067 233,469 843,669 498,768 1,342,437 1,575,906 1,024,078 2,875,051 May-84 264,046 261,217 861,709 548,555 1,410,264 1,671,482 1,018,397 2,953,925 Jun-84 257,987 264,655 864,772 550,861 1,415,633 1,680,287 1,009,124 2,947,399 Jul-84 283,733 262,826 849,047 565,298 1,414,344 1,677,171 1,035,705 2,996,609 Aug-84 288,972 266,910 878,792 580,118 1,458,909 1,725,820 1,048,507 3,063,298 Sep-84 286,796 241,412 821,825 560,00 1,381,892 1,623,304 1,004,288 2,914,388 Oct-84 300,526 271,331 849,959 598,815 1,448,774 1,720,105 1,023,723 3,044,354 Nov-84 300,526 274,600 882,940 584,457 1,467,397 1,741,997 1,035,779 3,078,302 Dec-84 377,751 264,165 879,991 529,256 1,409,247 1,673,413 1,044,598 3,095,763 Jan-85 251,627 259,377 908,961 549,831 1,458,792 1,718,169 1,034,360 3,004,155 Feb-85 250,032 273,322 883,936 553,110 1,437,046 1,710,368 1,037,792 2,998,191 Mar-85 333,541 287,539 905,667 588,760 1,494,427 1,781,966 1,049,948 3,165,456 Apr-85 292,424 265,405 901,823 559,314 1,461,136 1,726,541 1,046,988 3,065,953 May-85 289,416 289,161 898,553 595,628 1,494,181 1,783,341 1,038,552 3,111,309 Jun-85 268,960 295,830 878,328 598.698 1,477,027 1,772,857 1,041,060 3,082,877 Jul-85 282,718 295,548 892,492 618,431 1,510,923 1,806,471 1.057,848 3,147,038 Aug-85 298,025 279,147 896,456 613,120 1,509,577 1,788,723 1,066,628 3,153,377 Sep-85 322,257 265,826 857,207 583,750 1,440,957 1,706,783 1,016,223 3,045,263 Oct-85 312,580 295,239 908,550 628,933 1,537,483 1,832,722 1,021,447 3.166,750 Nov-85 312,580 297,112 917,929 592,794 1,510,723 1,807,835 1,030,235 3,150,651 Dec-85 385,556 284,948 934,236 539,297 1,473,533 1,758,481 1,041,318 3,185,355 45 ont. TABLE CS) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS NON-DURABLE GOODS AGRI- DURAB. SERVI- YEAR CULTUR GOODS FOOD NON-FOOD TOTAL TOTAL CES TOTAL Jan-86 260,035 250,985 948,960 520,015 1,468,975 1,719,959 1,028,403 3,008,398 Feb-86 242,758 254,159 925,242 525,911 1,451,153 1,705,312 1,031,766 2,979,836 Mar-86 359,707 247,944 914,341 529,055 1,443,396 1,691,339 1,044,231 3,095,277 Apr-86 281,396 275,086 958,308 577,453 1,535,761 1,810,847 1,042,226 3,134,469 May-86 275,366 293,314 939,692 557,220 1,496,912 1,790,226 1,040,865 3,106,458 Jun-86 257,438 276,705 908,726 567,368 1,476,094 1,752,799 1,043,509 3,053,746 Jul-86 281,497 262,528 905,499 574,682 1,480,180 1,742,709 1,064,927 3,089,132 Aug-86 292,317 250,669 909,866 553,829 1,463,695 1,714,364 1,062,292 3,068,972 Sep-86 306,086 240,264 866,906 549,357 1,416,262 1,656,527 1,029,982 2,992,594 Oct-86 306,085 236,425 888,805 586,812 1,475,617 1,712,042 1,033,180 3,051,307 Nov-86 306,085 227,897 906,429 565,100 1,471,529 1,699,426 1,037,536 3,043,047 Dec-86 382,843 240,504 950,180 514,331 1,464,511 1,705,015 1,041,784 3,129,641 Jan-87 264,361 220,946 927,653 479,183 1,406,836 1,627,783 1,038,742 2,930,886 Feb-87 224,717 227,682 923,927 501,997 1,425,924 1,653,607 1,043,703 2,922,026 Mar-87 377,622 257,272 922,064 561,791 1,483,854 1,741,127 1,055,255 3,174,004 Apr-87 287,734 253,874 900,976 522,891 1,423,867 1,677,741 1,055,045 3,020,520 May-87 278,036 267,985 936,673 548,512 1,485,185 1,753,169 1,048,170 3,079,375 Jun-87 267,929 285,247 913,758 565,570 1,479,328 1,764,575 1,043,185 3,075,689 Jul-87 299,708 274,451 900,925 565,041 1,465,966 1,740,417 1,074,314 3,114,439 Aug-87 307,041 259,447 884,874 566,159 1,451,033 1,710,480 1,080,280 3,097,801 Sep-87 311,852 259,547 887,521 591,861 1,479,382 1,738,929 1,050,006 3,100,786 Oct-87 318,839 271,527 902,146 624,267 1,526,413 1,797,940 1,060,990 3,177,769 Nov-87 318,839 282,132 917,135 604,171 1,521,305 1,803,437 1,066,886 3.189,163 ec-87 398,816 286,073 956,077 559,349 1,515,426 1,801,499 1,068,324 3,268,639 an-88 278,700 248,426 916,282 512,897 1,429,179 1,677,605 1,059,700 3,016,005 Feb-88 253,900 259,771 885,899 542,917 1,428,816 1,688,587 1,066,100 3,008,587 Mar-88 333,500 269,166 888,464 547,949 1,436,413 1,705,579 1,073,400 3,112,479 Apr-88 291,100 270,935 918,918 545,086 1,464,004 1,734,939 1,063,600 3.089,639 May-88 302,800 286,066 922,810 534,354 1,457,164 1,743,230 1,059,000 3,105,030 un-88 269,400 295,154 897,167 573,498 1,470,665 1,765,819 1,057,100 3,092,319 Jul-88 281,700 271,557 857,310 545,526 1,402,836 1.674,393 1,078,300 3,034,393 ug-88 290,400 279,231 907,150 589,457 1,496,607 1,775,838 1,088,400 3,154,638 Sep-88 327,300 285,113 882,314 571,550 1,453,864 1,738,977 1,057,400 3,123,677 Oct-88 298,2W 295,990 878,667 633,339 1,512,006 1,807,996 1,069,600 3,175,796 ov-88 344,400 312,923 971,766 651,031 1,622,797 1,935,720 1,076,000 3,356,120 lec-88 374,400 292,449 987,184 589,469 1,576,652 1,869,101 1,081,500 3,325,001 46 (cont. TABLE C5) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS NON-DURABLE GOODS AGRI- DURAB. SERVI- YEAR CULTUR GOODS FOOD NON-FOOD TOTAL TOTAL CES TOTAL Jan-89 273,000 283,647 952,895 573,309 1,526,204 1,809,850 1.085,600 3,168,450 Feb-89 288,400 278,651 930,153 591,226 1,521,379 1.800,030 1,083,700 3,172,130 Mar-89 336,700 276,076 951,641 579,126 1,530,768 1,806,843 1.093,800 3,237,343 Apr-89 272,600 292,165 965,235 622,402 1,587.637 1,879,802 1,088,100 3,240,502 May-89 280,300 306,394 962,233 619,901 1,582,134 1,888,528 1,095,500 3,264,328 Jun-89 266,700 326,969 972,839 654,219 1,627,058 1,954,027 1,090,900 3,311,627 Jul-89 288,600 303,093 945,349 611,875 1,557,224 1,860,317 1,112,300 3,261,217 Aug-89 292,800 327,026 974,843 644,506 1,619,349 1,946,375 1,128,700 3,367,875 Sep-89 308,000 295,788 952,741 615,037 1,567,778 1,863,566 1,100,400 3,271,966 Oct-89 272,700 331,343 957,420 652,940 1,610,360 1,941,703 1,109,200 3,323,603 Nov-89 307,100 338,955 1,020,094 668,128 1,688,221 2,027,177 1,118,400 3,452,677 Dec-89 335,900 308,922 989,232 572,076 1,561,307 1,870,230 1,127,600 3,333,730 Jan-90 276,500 276,464 1,026,526 594,286 1,620,813 1,897,276 1,122,800 3,296,576 Feb-90 202,500 285,035 953,904 602,280 1,556,184 1,841,219 1,127,400 3,171,119 Mar-90 361,600 318,244 1,021,953 653,209 1,675,161 1,993,405 1,132,000 3,487,905 Apr-90 289,100 295,965 983,576 595,281 1,578,857 1,874,822 1,135,100 3,299,022 May-90 289,900 348,037 1,007,554 669,229 1,676,783 2,024,820 1,130.500 3,445,220 Jun-90 288,000 376,515 1,001,641 662,015 1,663,656 2,040,172 1,125,900 3,454,072 Jul-90 316,300 349,583 987,606 654,004 1,641,610 1,991,193 1,160,500 3,467,993 Aug-90 311,800 345,243 1,018,700 674,482 1,693,182 2,038,425 1,175,200 3,525,425 Sep-90 315,700 304,983 968,382 626,065 1,594,447 1,899,431 1,136,800 3,351,931 Oct-90 285,000 363,249 1,002,755 733,421 1,736,176 2,099,425 1,147,500 3,531,925 Nov-90 325,100 365,020 1,030,468 733,946 1,764,414 2,129,435 1,153,800 3,608,335 Dec-90 360,300 349,846 1,018,610 617,546 1,636,156 1.986,002 1,171,200 3,517,502 Jan-88 278,700 248,426 916,282 512,897 1,429,179 1,677,605 1,059,700 3,016,005 Feb-88 253,900 259,771 885,899 542,917 1,428,816 1,688,187 1,066,100 3,008.587 Mar-88 333,500 269,166 888,464 547,949 1,436,413 1,705,579 1,073,400 3,112,479 Apr-88 291,100 270,935 918,918 545,086 1,464,004 1,734,939 1,063,600 3,089,639 May-88 302,800 286,066 922,810 534,354 1,457,164 1,743,230 1,059,000 3,105,030 Jun-88 269,400 295,154 897,167 573,498 1,470,665 1,765,819 1,057,.00 3,092,319 Jul-88 281,700 271,557 857,310 545,526 1,402,836 1,674,393 1,078,300 3,034,393 Aug-88 290,400 279,231 907,150 589,457 1,496,607 1,775,838 1,088,400 3,154,638 Sep-88 327,300 285,113 882,314 571,550 1,453,864 1,738,977 1,057,400 3,123,677 Oct-88 298,200 295,990 878,667 633,339 1,512,006 1,807,996 1,069,600 3,175,796 Nov-88 344,400 312,923 971,766 651,031 1,622,797 1,935,720 1,076,000 3,356,120 Dec-88 374,400 292,449 987,184 589,469 1,576,652 1,869,101 1,081,500 3,325,001 TABLE C6: COMPARSION OF QUARTERLY ANp7MONTHLY 47 (millons $ 1980) QUARTERLY MONTHLY QUAR- TERLY MONTHLY DOMES- DOMES- DOMES- PRIVATE PRIVATE TIC IMPL TED TIC IMPORTED TIC IMPORTED CONSUM. CONSUM. GOODS GOODS GOODS GOODS GOODS GOODS YEAR (1) (2) (1Y(2) (4) (5) (6) (7) (4Y(6) (5Y(7) 1980.1 2784300 2847870 0.978 2760900 50700 2773707 74163 0.995 0.684 1980.2 2819800 2847327 0.990 2755100 70900 2767800 79527 0.995 0.892 1980.3 2943800 2927077 1.006 2824700 '03700 2839906 87171 0.995 1.190 1980.4 3095500 3077752 1.006 2959900 129100 2964214 113538 0.999 1.137 1981.1 2947700 2982521 0.988 2875900 76400 2888809 93712 0.996 0.815 1981.2 3012700 3034396 0.993 2920300 74200 2933050 101346 0.996 0.732 1981.3 3168300 3163609 1.001 3028100 102600 3042819 120790 0.995 0.849 1981.4 3261400 3232031 1.009 3112700 118000 3110758 121273 1.001 0.973 1982.1 3072000 3131476 0.981 3030500 67600 3042761 88715 0.996 0.762 1982.2 3062000 3108255 0.985 3022900 56200 3035762 72493 0.996 0.775 1982.3 2993000 3032603 0.987 2971800 43400 2985637 46967 0.995 0.924 1982.4 2965000 2978647 0.992 2965900 27200 2955865 22782 1.000 1.194 1983.1 2812400 2900106 0.970 2876900 19400 2889433 10673 0.996 1.818 1983.2 2870100 2936422 0.977 2906600 21500 2923187 13235 0.994 1.624 1983.3 2840800 2900374 0.979 2861000 20300 2884593 15781 0.992 1.286 1983.4 2911200 2970976 0.980 2940900 16000 2055673 15303 0.995 1.046 1984.1 2888700 2969346 0.973 2928000 24600 2954231 15116 0.991 1.627 1984.2 2883300 2943928 0.979 2897700 23900 2925458 18470 0.991 1.294 1984.3 2972700 3009849 0.988 2968200 26300 2991432 18418 0.992 1.428 1984.4 3066700 3099214 0.990 3061000 30400 3072806 26408 0.996 1.151 1985.1 3019700 3082275 0.980 3030500 29800 3055934 26341 0.992 1.131 1985.2 3082200 3117348 0.989 3064400 34100 3086713 30635 0.993 1.113 1985.3 3111000 3145012 0.989 3097300 32600 3115226 29786 0.994 1.094 1985.4 3164400 3209174 0.986 3160400 37100 3167585 41589 0.998 0.892 1986.1 2987900 3055630 0.978 3010400 28600 3027837 27793 0.994 1.029 1986.2 3064900 3127006 0.980 3077600 23200 3098224 28782 0.993 0.806 1986.3 3022600 3076448 0.982 3027700 25000 3050233 26216 0.993 0.954 1986.4 3044200 3101339 0.982 3059400 30400 3074665 26674 0.995 1.140 1987.1 2926900 3030022 0.966 2979900 19400 3008972 21050 0.990 0.922 1987.2 3001000 3081679 0.974 3025100 20400 3058528 23151 0.989 0.881 1987.3 3054300 3130883 0.976 3064000 21100 3104342 26541 0.987 0.795 1987.4 3185900 3253568 0.979 3193700 32700 3211857 41711 0.994 0.784 1988.1 2981400 3087197 0.966 3010400 26700 3045690 41507 0.988 0.643 1988.2 3074400 3166806 0.971 3052000 43500 3095663 71144 0.986 0.611 1988.3 3111300 3201706 0.972 3062600 55000 3104236 97470 0.987 0.564 1988.4 3324700 3417215 0.973 3249900 76400 3285639 131576 0.989 0.581 1989.1 3188100 3290270 0.969 3142900 56900 3192641 97629 0.984 0.685 1989.2 3305700 3397107 0.973 3232600 86700 3272152 124954 0.988 0.694 1989.3 3323900 3427339 0.970 3253300 75900 3300353 126986 0.986 0.598 1989.4 &,27900 3549033 0.966 3328700 108100 3370003 179030 0.988 0.604 1990.1 3343900 3441818 0.972 3276300 87500 3318533 123285 0.987 0.710 1990.2 3441700 3554334 0.968 3343100 99700 3399438 154897 0.983 0.644 1990.3 3535500 3622916 0.976 3413400 115800 3448450 174466 0.990 0.664 1990.4 3663400 3792816 0.966 3512000 138700 3552587 240229 0.989 0.577 Policy Research Working Paper Series Contact Title Author Date for paper WPS 842 Capital Flows to South Asia and Ishrat Husain January 1992 S. King-Watson ASEAN Countries: Trends, Kwang W. Jun 31047 Determinants, and Policy Implications WPS843 How Financial Markets Affect Long- Ejaz Ghani January 1992 A. Nokhostin Run Growth: A Cross-Country Study 34150 WPS844 Heterogeneity, Distribution, and Ravi Kanbur January 1992 WDR Office Cooperation in Common Properly 31393 Resource Management WPS845 Inflation Stabilization in Turkey: Luc Everaert January 1992 B. Mondestin An Application of the RMSM-X Model 36071 WPS846 Incorporating Cost and Cost- Larry Forgy January 1992 0 Nadora Effectiveness Analysis into the Diana M. Measham 31091 Development of Safe Motherhood Anne G. Tinker Programs WPS847 Coping with the Legacies of Silvia B. Sagari January 1992 M. Guirbo Subsidized Mortgage Credit in Loic Chiquier 35015 Hungary WPS848 How EC 1992 and Reforms of the Merlinda D. Ingco February 1992 P. Kokila Common Agricultural Policy Would Donald 0. Mitchell 33716 Affect Developing Countries' Grain Trade WPS849 Financial Structures and Economic Ross Levine February 1992 W. Pitayatonakarn Development 37666 WPS850 Fiscal Adjustment and the Real Kazi M Matin February 1992 D. Ballantyne Exchange Rate: The Case of Bangladesh 38004 WPS851 Sources of World Bank Estimates Eduard Bos February 1992 0. Nadora of Current Mortality Rates My T Vu 31091 Patience W. Stephens WPS852 How Health Insurance Affects the Joseph Kutzin February 1992 0. Nadora Delivery of Health Care in Developing Howard Barnum 31091 Countries WPS853 Policy Uncertainty, Information Gerard Capnio February 1992 W. Pitayatonakarn Asymmetries, and Financial 37664 Intermediation WPS854 Is There a Case for an Optimal Export Takamasa Akiyama February 1992 G. Ilogon Tax on Perennial Crops? 33732 WPS855 Sovereign Debt: A Primer Jonathan Eaton February 1992 S. King-Watson 31047 Policy Research Working Paper Series Contact Title Author Date for paper WPS856 Latin American Women's Earnings George Psacharopoulos February 1992 L. Longo and Participation in the Labor Force Zafiris Tzannatos 39244 WPS857 The Life Insurance Industry in the Kenneth M. Wright February 1992 W. Pitayatonakarn United States: An Analysis of Economic 37664 and Regulatory Issues WPS858 Contractual Savings and Emerging Dimitri Vittas February 1992 W. Pitayatonakarn Securities Markets 37664 WPS859 Macroeconomic Management and Ibrahim A. Elbadawi February 1992 V. Barthelmes the Black Market for Foreign Exchange 39175 in Sudan WPS860 The Restrictiveness of the Multi- Refik Erzan February 1992 G. Ilogon Fibre Arrangement on Eastern Christopher Holmes 33732 European Trade WPS861 Private Saving in Mexico, 1980-90 Patricio Arrau February 1992 S. King-Watson Daniel Oks 31047 WPS862 Higher Education in Egypt Alan Richards