China - Agricultural Education and Research Project

Docum The WVor <tiJ i ol\ FOR OFFICIA . ,; / 1I. Report No. 970o PROJECT PERFORMANCEAUDIT REPORT PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA AGRICULTURAL EDUCATION AND RESEARCH PROJECT (CREDIT 1297-CHA) JUNE 28, 1991 Operations Evaluation Department This documenthas a restricteddistibution and may be used by redpients only in the performanceof their offlcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY Name of Currency: Yuan Currency Exchange Rate: Appraisal year Average US$1 - Y1.75 InterveningYears: 1983 US$1 - Y2.00 1984 US$1 - Y2.80 1985 US$1 - Y2.80 1986 US$1 - Y3.72 1987 US$1 - Y3.72 1988 US$1 - Y3.72 CompletionYear Average US$1 - Y3.72 GLOSSARY BA - Bureau of Aquatics BLR - Bureau of Land Reclamation CAAS - Chinese Academy of Agricultura. Sciences CAS Chinese Academy of Sciences CAST - Chinese Association for Science and Technology CATEC - County Agro-TechnicalExtension Center CNNRI - Chinese National Rice Research Institute D0I Department of Education DSi - Department of Science and Technology IBRD - InternationalBank for Reconstruction and Development ICB - InternationalCompetitive Bidding IDA International DevelopmentAssociation IRRI InternationalRice Research Institute MAAF - Ministry of Agriculture,Animal Husbandry and Fishery MIS - Management Information System MOF - Ministry of Forestry MWREP - Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power OED - OperationsEvaluationDepartment O&M - Operationsand Maintenance PC - Project Commission PCR - Project CompletionReport PMC - Project Management Committee PMO - Project Management Office PO - Project Office PPAR - Project PerformanceAudit Report PRS - ProductionResponsibilitySystem SAC - State AgriculturalCommission SAR - Staff Appraisal Report SDR - Special Drawing Right SMA - State MeteorologyAdministration SOE - Statement of Expenses SSTC - State Science and Technology Commission  THEWORLD SANK %rt - L LI *%VA Ju D.C.20433 Washington, U.S.A. Oke of Dect-General OptOnM Evaluatilr June 28, 1991 TO THE EXECUTIVEDIRECTORSAND THE PRESIDENT MEMORANDUM SUBJECT: Project Performance Audit Report on PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA AgriculturalEducation and Research Proiect (Credit 1297-CHA) Attached, for information, is a copy of a report entitled "Project Performance Audit Report on People's Republic of China: AgriculturalEducationand ResearchProject (Credit1297-CHA)"preparedby the OperationsEvaluationDepartment. Attachment This document has a restricted only in the performance and maybe usedby recipients distribution of their officialduties.Its contentsmaynot otherwisebedisctosedwithoutWorldBankauthorization.  FOROMCIuL USEONLY PROJECT PERFORMANCE AUDIT REPORT PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA AGRICULTURAL EDUCATION AND RESEARCHPROJECT (CREDIT 1297-CHA) Table of Contents Pare No. Preface ... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Basic Data Sheet .iii .0.. 0. Evaluation Summary . . . . . . . v . . . . . . . . . v I. Project Background t. . . . . . . . . 1. . . . . A. Agricultural Development: 1949-1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . I B. Educational Development: 1949-1980 . . . . . . . . . . . 3 C. Bank Group Assistance to China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 II. Project Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 A.* Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * . . * . * . 5 B. Identificstionof Problems . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . 5 C. Identification of Solutions ........... 7 D. Project Objectives and Inputs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 E. Financing Plan and Implementation Arrangements . . . . . . . 13 III. Project Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 A. Implementation Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 B. Performance of Implementing Agencies and IDA . . . . . . . . 15 C. Execution of Project Components . . . . . & . . . . . . . * 17 IV. Project Achievements and Outcomes . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . 22 A. Achievement of Project Objectives . . . . . * . . * . . . . 23 B. Development of the Agricultural Sector, 1980-1990 . . . . *. . * . . . . . . . 31 C. Development of Institutions and Systems . . . . . . . . . . 32 D. Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 V. Findings and Lessons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . 38 ANNEXES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Thisdocument hasa restricted distribution andmaybeusedbyrecipients onlyin the performance of theirofficial duties. Itscontentsmaynototherwise bedisclosed without WorldBank authorization.  - 1 - AUDIT REPORST PROJECT PERFORHANCE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA EDUCATION AGRiCULTURAL AND RESEARCHPROJECT (CREDIT 1297-CHA) PREFACE This is a Project Performance Audit Report (PPAR) prepared by the Operations Evaluation Department (OED) for the Agricultural Education and Research Project in the People's Republic of China. This project, for which Credit 1297-CHAin the amount of SDR 67.8 million (US$ 75.4 million equivalent) was approved on November 2, 1982, was virtually completed by the end of 1988. The Credit was closed on March 31, 1989, and the final disbursementtook place on September 1, 1989. There were no cancellations. The PPAR is based on several sources: i) the Project CompletionReport (PCR) prepared by the Asia Region and issued as OED Report No. 8530 (April 18, 1990); ii) the Project CompletionReport prepared by the Project Office in the Ministry of Agriculture,Animal Husbandry and Fishery (September 1988); iii) materials pertinent to project preparation and implementation, including background papers, the Staff Appraisal Report (SAR), the Credit Agreement, the correspondencefiles, and studies produced under the project; iv) a review of economic and sector work in agriculture and education carried out by the Bank Group between 1979 and 1990; v) PPARs for completed China projects in agriculture and education; vi) SARs for the Second Agricultural Education Project (Ln. 2444-CHA) and the Second AgriculturalResearch Project (Cr. 1516- CHA); vii) interviewswith Bank Group staff responsible for appraising and supervisingthe project; and viii) the findings of an OED mission to China in October 1990,which visited project sites and intervieweduniversityand research institute staff and Borrower officials associatedwith the project. The PPAR validatesmost findingsof the PCR and, where possible,updates this analysisand highlights selected issues that arose in the course of the Audit. The draft PPAR was sent to the Borrower for comments but none was received.  - iii - PROJECT PERFORMANCE AUIT RBERT PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHIA EDUCATION AGRICULTURAL ANDRESEARCHPROJECT (CREDIT 1297-ClA) BASIC DATA SIIEET KEY PROJECT DATA APPRAISAL ACTUAL OR ACTUAL AS S ITEM EXPECTATION CURRENT OF APPRAISAL ESTIMATE ESTIMATE Total Project Cost (USS Million) 201.60 184.40 91.50 Credit Amount (US$ Billion) 75.40 73.25 97.20 Credit Amount (Y Million) 132.00 300.00 227.00 Data Physical Compouents Completed 31-Dec-85 31-Dec-88 Proportion Completed by that date (1) 94S Institutional Performance CUMULATIVE ESTIMATED AND ACTUAL DISBURSEKENTS FY83 FY84 FY85 FY86 FY87 FY88 FY89 FY90 Appraisal Estimate (US$ Million) 3.7 15.00 33.90 49.00 64.10 75.40AI Actual (US$ Million) 0.69 24.54 46.37 54.10 60.52 65.52 72.50 73.25!I Actual as 2 of Appraisal (2) 18.65 163.60 136.78 110.41 94.41 86.90 Date of Final Disbursement: September 1, 1989 PROJECT DATES Original Revisions Actual Plan _ First Mention in Files NA - May 81 Negotiations NA - Apr 82 Board Approval NA - 2-Nov-82 Signing (Credit Agreement Date) 16-Feb-83 - 16-Nov-82 Effectiveness - 2-Feb-83 Closing Date 30-Jun-88 - 31-Mar-89 Equivalent to 67.8 million SDR.  - iv - STAFF INPU$ (StaffWeeks) FX 82 ,8^ 4 85 86 AZ 88 Total Pre-appraisal 36.2 20.8 - - - _ - 57.0 Appraisal 95.3 - - - - - 95.3 Negotiation 12.8 4.3 - - - - - 17.1 Supervision - 17.2 27.8 19.2 9.8 8.6 3.8 86.3 Other 8.4 1.6 - - - - 10.0 Total 152.7 43.9 27.8 19.2 9.8 8.6 3.8 265.7 MISSIONDATA Date No. of Specialization Performance Trends (mo./vr.) Persons Represented Ratint Identification/PreparaAlon Jul-81 6 NA NA NA Appraisal Oct/Nov-81 9 NA NA NA Post-Appraisal Mar-82 5 NA NA NA Supervision I Jan/Feb-83 5 5(GE)(EC)(AE) 1 2 Supervision II Jun/Jul-83 1 1(EC) 1 2 Supervision III Oct/Nov-83 2 1(GE)(A) 1 2 SupervisionIV Mar-84 1 1(GE) 1 2 SupervisionV Sep-84 4 4(GE)(AR) 1 1 SupervisionVI Feb-85 3 3(EC)(TE)W(E) 1 1 SupervisionVII Jun-85 3 3(EC)(AR)(AE) I 1 SupervisionVIII Oct-85 2 2(A)(EC) I I SupervisionIX May-86 1 1(AC) I I SupervisionX May-87 2 1(AE) 1 1 SupervisionXI Oct-87 1 1(AE) 1 1 SupervisionXII May-88 2 2(AE) Completion May-88 Specializations: A - Architect AE a Agricultural Educator AR - Agricultural Research EC - Economist GE U General Educator TE - Technical Educator Performance Rating: I - Problem Free 2 - Moderate Problems 3 - Major Problems Trend; 1 - Improving 2 a Stationary 3 * Deteriorating OTHERPROJECTDATA Borrower: People's Republic of China ExecutingAgency: ProjectOffice,Ministry of Agriculture,Animal Husbandry & Fishery (StateAgr. Commission) FY of the Borrower: Jan-i to Dec-31 Follow-On Pro1ects: Names II Agricultural Education Project Loan Numbers 2444-CHA Amount (US$ Million): 68.8 Approval Date: 9-Jul-84 Name: II Agricultural Research Project Credit Number: 1516-CHA Amount (US$ Million): 25.0 Approval D'fe: 3-Dec-84  - V PROJECT PERFORANCEAUDIT REPORT PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA EDUCATION AGRICULTURAL AND RESEARCHPROJECT (CREDIT 1297-CiA) SUIOURY EVALUATION Introduction Obiectives Between 1981 and 198F, the Board The project provided assistance approved nearly US$700.0 million to support 17 existing institutions dollars equivalent for six projects (11 universities and 6 research to assist higher education in China. institutes), establish the Chinese This represented the most NationalRice ResearchInstitute,and concentrated and largest single generateinformationon the status of investment in this subsector by the agricultural research and manpower Bank in its history. Credit 1297- planning and administration. The CHA, for which US$75.4 million was main objectives and inputs of the approved in November 1982, was the project included: second project to assist tertiary level education and the first to * improving teaching and research focus on human resource and research quality (through provision of capacity in agricult,re. It followed modern scientific equipment, a fairly intensive period of problem books and materials, overseas analysis during the late 1970s, fellowships and study tours for during which time the chief faculty and staff of project constraintsin agricultural education institutions,and specialists in and research were identifiedas poor language training and quality, insufficient capacity, and agriculturalsciences); poor management (paras. 2.02-2.10). IDA sought a basis for addressing * expandingenrollmentand research potentially far-reaching capacity (through rehabilitation organizational issues, but the of existing or construction of Borrower preferred to focus on new dormitories,classrooms, and strengthening the teaching and laboratories and development of research functions of selected new postgraduatecourses); and institutions, and this was the project scope that eventually * improving resource organization prevailed (paras. 2.11-2.15). and management(throughprovision of overseas training for  - vi - administ-ators, librarians, and cost of the proj3ct amounted to computer center directors and US$184.5 equivalent, a 9X coat management specialasts) (paras. underrun due to fluctuations in the 2.16-2.23). exchange rate between the Yuan and the US dollar. Local currency The project contained studies of comparisons indicated a 152 cost agricultural manpower and research, overrun (paras. 3.01-3.02). which were to lay the groundwork for future lending, and two evaluation The number and location of components--a tracer survey of beneficiary institutions from graduatesof project institutionsand multiple ministries and agencies an evaluation matrix, in which provideda difficultmanagerialtask, project objectives had been but zhe Project Office did an translated into measurable key excepticnal job in coordinating indicators and targets (paras. 2.24- efforts and meoting deadlines and 2.30). Administratively, it targets. Cooperation from the encompassed eleven ministries and participating institutions, plus agencies whose representativeswere strong commitment and management at co constitute a Project Management the local level, further facilitated Committee to provide oversight and implementation. Effective project guidance. The chief implementing management was complemented by the agency, the Project Office, was co.-dialdialogue between IDA and the located in the Ministry of Borrower which prevailed throughout Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and implementation. IDA provided steady Fishery. Individual project aud effective supervision and institutionscontributedstaff to sit technicalassistancein every respect on technical panels and established but two: in the procurement and management committees for day-to-day atilization of specialist services, oversight at the local level (paras. and in civil works construction 2.34-2.35). (paras. 3.03-3.07). ImnlementationExoerience Most project inputs were implementedas designed. The studies The project was implemented as and the evaluation components were designed within the cost and time undertakenon scheduleand the former parameters establishedat Appraisal. submitted to IDA as planned. There were five amendments to the Construction and renovation Credit Agreement, none of which activities, which were largely substantially altered the scope or financed by the Borrower, proceeded content of the project. The Credit well at most sites and eventually Account was closed on March 31, 1989, exceeded estimated volume by some an extension of nine months to the 60S. Equipment totalling some original Closing Date. The total US$52.4 million--orsome 71.52 of the Credit amount of SDR 67.8 million was Credit--wasprocuredon schedule,and disbursed, but because of the for the colleges, was installed by increasing value of the US dollar, the end of 1987. Equipment this amounted to US$73.25 million installationfor research institutes equivalent, slightly less than the lagged somewhat, but by June 1988, US$75.4 million envisioned at virtually all of the equipment had Appraisal. In US dollars, the total been installed and was in operating  _ vil - condition. Implementation of restoring and extending the capacity specialistassistancewas mixed. The of the institutions to undertake language training component, which their basic functionsiii) supporting was a sine qua non for effective the development of new courses and implementationof the overseas study improvingthe quality of teachingand program, was highly successful. researe,h; and iii) facilitating the Academic and management specialist expansion of postgraduate programs, assistance was not in high demand which had been virtually non-existent from participating institutions and at Appraisal stage (paras. 4.05- was underutilized;as a component it 4.10). The attempts to alter was relatively ineffective, the universitycurriculaand programsmet outstandingcontribLtionsof selected with miced success. Targets were individuals notwithstanding (paras. exceeded with respect to: i) 3.08-3.18). establishing postgraduate degree programs and agriculture l Overseas training, particularly education/extension programs ani ii) the placing of fellows under the enrolimentsin agricultural economics facultyupgradingprogram, got off to and managementcourses. The goals of a slow start, but the eventual reorienting and consolidating numbers more than made up initial curricula in order to delay student delays. Between 1984-1988,some 911 specialization and reduce inefficient faculty went abroad to study, which programming were achieved in part exceeded Appraisal expectations by (paras 4.11-4.13). One of the few some 44Z. This large increase came apparent problems at the time of about because fellows sent abroad Audit was the delay in the return of were encouraged to--and did--find overseas fellows which, however alternative sources of financing, temporary,delayed realizationof the which freed project funds for full benefits of the upgrading additional candidates. As a program. consequence of this policy, fellows who started in one degree program The expansionobjectivewas fully frequently proceeded to the next achieved for both educational and level and delayed their return. At research institutions. By project the time of the Audit, 77Z of those completion,undergraduateenrollment studying at the PhD level and 85X of and output had reached 1232 and 1272 those at the Master's level were of the targets, respectively,while still overseasstudying (paras.3.19- postgraduate enrollment was an even 3.24). greater 1442 of the target. Over one-quarter of the student body was Results female, as intended. By the time the Audit mission was in the field, As might be expected by the project institutionshad experienced careful preparation and exemplary a six-fold increase in postgraduate implementation, targets and enrollments in less than a decade objectives were generally met or (paras. 4.14-4.16). exceeded. The quality objective was largely achieved. Staff, facilities In its final form, the project and programs were upgraded, and the item aimed .ec improving resource calibre of students improved. The organizationand management was not equipment provided assisted in: i) as comprehensive as IDA would have  - viii - liked. It was a modest step and developed close links to farmers and absorbed les than 32 of the Credit entrepreneurs In their communities amount. This item focused on (paras. 4.32-4.37). improving internal efficiency and strengthening management (especially At the time of Audit, there was of libraries) at project little doubt that the impact of the institutions, rather than on project on the development of rationalizing resource allocation individual institutions was patterns and reforming systems, as significant. Education and research IDA. had hoped for at the outset. institutionshad improved along th. Achievementswere partial. Libraries lines envisaged at Appraisal, along became more open and accessible and with their stature in the scientific were better managed, and many became community. This development was active tn assisting with the complemented and bolstered by the developmentof a variety of teaching booming conditLons of the aids. Internal efficiency did not agricultural economy. There is appear to improve much; in little evidence that the basic particular, teacher-Rtudent ratios systemsof which project institutions remained very high. The studies formed a part were similarly (initially identified by IDA as strengthened, however. Research inputs into this objective) were efforts remained fragmented, with successful in laying the groundwork responsibilities divided between a for follow-on projects, but they did 'arge number of agencies. Tertiary not lay the groundwork for an educationexpandedrapidly during the integrated agricultural research period, with little attention to system or improvedmanpower planning internal efficiency issues or practices (paras. 4.17-4.31). recurrent costs. As there were no explicit attempts to formalize or Project implementation took place cement collaborative relationships during a period of uaajoreconomic among institutions or professional reform in China, particularly associations among the scientists agricultural reform. A number of themselves, l1inkages between bold measures were adopted to institutions remainedad hoc and weak restructure and liberalizethe rural (paras:.4.38-4.41). economy, including (i) dismantling the communes and shifting production Sustainabilitv responsibility to the household,(ii) r a p id ly monetizing and The problems noted in earlier commercializing rural economic paragraphs notwithstanding, prospects activities, (iii) increasing farm for the sustainability of this prices, (iv) reintroducing free project are favorable. Project markets, (v) improvingpublic sector institt:tions were maintaining marketing and distributionnetworks, appropriate levels and adequate and (vi) giving farmersmore autonomy quality of both;inputs and outputs in in choosing cropping patterns. the post-completionphase, although Results were dramatl.c, and the rapid there was considerable Deed to growth of the rural economy led to an improve internal efficiency, as escalating demand for the training, noted. Effective mechanisms for research and outreach services of monitoring equipment utilization and project institutions, who in turn had identifying maintenance needs have  -ix - been established at most Findings and L-kosar institutions. Strong economic performance led to a strong dewand As a free-standing operation, for the services and output of this was a successful project. It project institutions, yet there was benefitted from a good understanding need for institutionsto be vigilant of the urgent pL)blems needing in adjusting their programs to attention in the wake of the Cultural evolving needs (paras 4.42-4.46). Revolution and from an appropriate project scope. To borruw a phrase From the perspective of the from the Borrower CompletionReport, Audit, the main sustainability- the investment wes "Just like rain related concerns are three, one after a long dry season." The key relating to the internal efficiency indicatorsand targets set by project of project institutions, and two planners were realistic and stemming from factors outside the attainable and generally closely direct control of the project or the monitosed by well-managed project institutions. Several efficiency units at the local level. The measurements,such as teacher:student experiment of combining agricultural ratios, indicated that project higher education and research institutions wsre not functioning institutionsunder a single lending optimally. Another concern was the operation, although somewhat prospects for long term recurrent unorthodox by IDA standards, was financing. Althoug project successful. The project was institutions have been quite instrumental in breaking the ingenious in devising cost-recovery isolationof the previousdecades and measures that double as public in bringing Chinese agriculcural service activities, it is unlikely scientists into contact with that in the foreseeable future they colleagues from around the world. could become entirely self-financing This was no small accomplishment entities. The need to ensure (paras. 5.01-5.02). adequate recurrent budgets is paramount anid requires strong Some of the most useful lessons Government commitment (paras 4.47- to emerge from this project concern 4.50). The final issue was the the selection of inputs appropriate persistence of manpower forecasting to the desired obje_tive and the as the chief tool for planning the careful monitoring of those inputs. levels and composition of The language training component,for expenditures in and determining which the IDA. Credit provided not allocationsto higher education. For only technical assistance but also China, the un:esponsiveness and financing for facilities and rigidity inherent in manpower equipment,was institutionalized and forecasting is exacerbated by: i) has paid handsome benefits for this the state-directed labor allocation project and several others (paras. system, and ii) a tendency toward 4.55 and 5.03). Overseas training excessive specialization at the was certainly an appropriateway to undergraduate level, which ill upgrade faculty and staff of project preparesgraduates for career changes institutions, particularlygiven the (paras. 4.53-4.55). paucity of postgraduate level programs in China at the time. But the appropriate target should not have been the number sent abroad, but been delinked from &ny broader rather the number returned to their objective. Arguably, this was an posts (paras. 4.06-4.09 and 5.04). acceptable strategy for a first The project sought to improve operation. Nevertheless, the Audit institutional management through believes that this strategy will have consolidating overspecialized a number of disadvantages in the university programs snd improving longer term. Firstly, it allowed administrative practices. This was internal inefficiencies to persist, to be accomplished by exposing the ultimately to the detriment of the staff and officials of project institutions themselves. Secondly, institutions to foreign specialists by removing the investment from and overseas study tours. However, system allocation issues, it probably the project never specified how these promoted the observed tendency for inputs were to achieve these goals-- institutions to work at cross- amounting to fundamental purposes and certainly contributed to organizational reform in some cases-- ti.e overly rapid expansion of higher or how performance was to be education in China. Thirdly, by assessed. The Audit questions removing the investment from system whether specfalists and study tours development issues, institutional can have much impact under the best linkages were ignored along with the of circumstances; the vague related issue of internal quality application of these inputs in this control and self-regulation of the project achieved little (para. 5.05). tertiary and agricultural research systems. Finally, it allowed The project focused on restoring, external inefficiency to persist. expanding and improving the teaching Until the need to remove the vestiges and research functions of selected of the command economy approach from institutions, but without concomitant labor allocation practices is attention to insti-utional management squarely addressed, the long term fit issues. Furthermore, the investment between the output of the project was outside the context of larger institutions and the needs of the system development, the agricultural economy cannot be assured (paras. manpower and research studies having 5.06-5.12).  PROJECT PERFORMANCEAUDIT REPORT PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA AGRICULTURAL ANDRESEARCH EDUCATION PROJECT (CREDIT--1297-CHA) 1. PROJECT BACKGROUND 1.01 The experience of the Agricultural Education and Research Project should be seen in light of: (i) developmentsin the agriculturaland education sectors during the thirty years followingthe 1949 socialist revolutionand (ii) strategiesdeveloped by the Bank Group and Borrower in the late 19709 to build upon the best, and ameliorate the worst, aspects of this legacy. A background paper, "Socialist Economic Development in China: 1949-1980," is presented as Annex 1. A. AgriculturalDeveloDment: 1949-1980 1.02 All things considered,agricultural developmentftom 1949 to 1980 was impressive. Gross agricultural output grew in real terms by about 3.2Z p.a. between 1955-1978. Agricultural productivity per hectare of cultivated land increasedconsiderably. Grain yields nearly doubled between 1952 and 1978, the most rapid increase occurring after 1965 when Government policy emphasized achieving self-sufficiency in grain production. China was able to meet the basic food requirements of it population--about 221 of the world's total--from less than 11Z of the world's arable land. This overall growth was made possible by development of an intensive farming system, development/promulgation of high- yielding and drought-resistant varieties of rice and wheat, increased use of chemicalfertilizersand mechanization, expansionof water controland irrigation systems,and strong organization of rural populations. Dissemination of research findings and new technologieswere facilitatedby a fairly efficient extension system and the fact that local groups (counties,communes, and brigades)were organized to respond to outreach,demonstration and farmer trainingactivities. 1.03 Researchplayed a vital role in China'sagricultural growth during this period. Scientificadvances occurred despite frequent policy fluctuationsand purges over the period. At issue were the relative merits of promoting professional versus ideologicalqualifications, basic (or "hard")researchversus practical production-orientedstudy, and the establishment of a scientificelite versus the extension of some sort of scientificnetwork of the masses. As a consequenceof these vacillations,however,impressiveadvances in some areas-- such as the developmentand promulgation of high-yieldingvarieties of rice and rust-resistant wheat--wereoffset by setbacksand shortcomings in others. In the longer term, the volatilityof the environment placed constraintson the overall quality and volume of research. 1.04 Dram.oticpolicy shifts in the late 1970s began to open the economy. China entered its fourth decade of socialist-ledeconomic developmentwith the Four ModernizationsPlan of 1980. Under this ambitiousplan, China would strive toward international standardsin agriculture,industry,defense,and scienceand technologyby 1985, and a quadruplingof the country's gross value of industrial and agriculturaloutput per capita by 2000. Concurrently,very rapid development of educationwas also planned,with higher education targetedas the sub-sector within education to expand most rapidly. For agriculturalresearch, the impact in some areas was immediate. Agriculturalcolleges began to step up both basic and applied researchactivitieswith lessenedpolitical interference. Long-term researchplanning concepts,professionalscientificsocieties,and professional (rather than political)managementof researchorganizations were reintroduced. Even so, physical and human resource constraintsremained severe. 1.05 Under the Four ModernizationsPlan, agriculturewould continue as a cornerstoneof national development. Agricultureaccounted for some 34Z of the GDP and, with 800 million people living in rural areas in 1980 (or about 85Z of the total population), it would continue to be the principal source of employment. Some of the more importantdistinguishingcharacteristics of the sector included: (i) low proportion of land under cultivation (about 10X of total land area), (ii) high proportion of land under irrigation (about 451 of cultivatedarea), (iii)generallyefficientutilizationof cultivatedareas, (iv) strong rural organizations,and (iv) extreme labor intensity. In fact, China used more labor per hectare than any other country in the world. Because of the high population growth rate in already denselypopulated rural areas, net output per agriculturalworker had declined by about 12? betwee.. 1957-77. 1.06 Although dramatic growth of 6? p.a. had been achieved from 1977-80 owing to improved economic incentives,possibilitiesfor continued growth were limited by the scarcity of arable land, worsening problems of soil and water conservation, decreasing marginal returns to additional inputs of minimally skilled labor, and the relative efficiency of the system. Ironically, past successes in achieving high yields made the task of raising productivitymore complex than in countrieswhere farming systems were less developed. 1.07 In light of this situation, it appeared to Chinese leaders that the greatest future gains for agriculture would necessarily come from increased efficiency (inboth the productionand resourceallocationprocesses),additional scientific and technologicalbreakthroughs(in the developmentof improvedcrop varieties and better disease and peat control), and application of these innovations at the farm level. The agricultural development strategy that emerged emphasized: (i) improving incentives to producers and decentralizing decision making through increased use of the "production responsibility system"l/;(ii) increasing specializationin agriculturalproduction to match cropping systems more closely to soil and climatic conditions; (iii) creating improved and well-integrated systems of production, storage, transport, and ,LI The productionresponsibility system (PRS)was introducedin 1979. It incorporated various contractingarrangements of owners of and managers that defined rights and responsibilities of assets. In the agricultural sector, the household replacedthe collectiveas the basic farm managementand productionunit. The householdwas obligatedto pay taxes and contribute to collectivewelfare funds and maintenanceof public infrastructure, but could retain all output. remaining marketing; (iv) expanding agricultural research and increased use of modern inputs and technology;and (v) strengthening educationalinstitutions to improve the quality of specialized agriculturalmanpower. In additionto continuingpast programs for boosting agriculturaloutput (such as constructionof irrigation works, combineduse of chemical and organic fertilizers,productionof certified seeds and the developmentof pest managementsystems), the Governmentdecided to increase state investment in the agricultural sector in combination with judicious use of foreign assistance. 1.08 Agricultural education and research--two of the systems needed to generate the manpower and knowledgeneeded to activate the strategies--werenot equal to the task. Thirty years of dramaticpolicy shifts and growing isolation from the world scientificcommunityhad taken their toll in eroding the human and intellectualcapital bases upon which further development could be built. A declining physicalbase, increasingly obsoleteknowledge base, and ill-prepared teachers and researcherswere but some of the lingering legaciesthat had to be overcome. B. EducationalDeveloDment: 1949-1980 1.09 Determiningpriorities,elaboratingconsistentpolicies, and enacting programs to develop education proved a difficult task for China's policymakers after 1949, particularlygiven the vast school age population,limited financial resources, and a commitment to rapid modernization on the socialist model. Dramatic fluctuations in education policy reflected shifting views on the relative value to assign educational quality (particularlyin scientific and technical fields and at the higher levels) versus educational expansion (particularly basic education in rural areas), ideologicalqualifications versus professional expertise, and local financing and autonomy versus centralized administration. During most of the fifties, the early 1960., and from 1976 onwards,educational policy stressedquality,professionalism and centralization. The Great Leap Forward (1958-59)and the Cultural Revolution (1966-76)saw the pendulum swing toward mass education, ideological orthodoxy, and decentralization. The latter movement culminated in such extreme measures as school closures, destruction of books and equipment, harassment or worse of instructional staff, abandonment of academic standards, shutting down of the Ministry of Education, and isolation from internationalacademic and research communities. 1.10 After thirty years of such policies, the net result Was an education system with impressive enrollment ratios of 93Z and 462 at the primary and secondary levels, respectively, but only 1.2% at the tertiary level. The impact of the Cultural Revolutionhad been particularlydevastatingon enrollmentsand standards in higher education. Student intake into colleges had ceased altogetherfrom 1966 to 19711, and when institutions reopened,admission was based more on socio-politicalcriteria than on academic achievement. While this measure may have increased rural representationin the student body, it also resulted in plummeting academic standards. Apart from the quality of the student, the quality of institutionalresources was eroded during this time. Outright destruction of physical plant followed by deterioration due to inadequate budgets were principal factors; swelling of faculty size with inappropriately trained staff and severing of professional contacts with institutionsoutside China were others. 1.11 In 1977, with about 1,000 institutionsto attend to, the Government began the enormous task of rebuildingthe higher educationsystem. It introduced certain measures to strengthen academic quality, including establishingformal achievement standards and certification procedures. A college entrance examination was developed and the awarding of undergraduateand postgraduate degrees was reintroduced. Three year curricula introducedduring the Cultural Revolution were dropped and four-year programs reinstated. Finally, certain colleges and universitieswere designated as "key" institutions,entitled to special funding, and expected to play a leadershiprole within the system. C. Bank Group Assistance to China 1.12 The dialoguebetween the Bank Group and the Borrowerbegan unofficially in the late 1970s. After China's change of representation in May 1980, the Bank undertooksubstantialeconomicand sectorwork, which culminatedin a nine volume introductoryeconomic report the following year.21 1.13 From the outset, both sides implicitly agreed on: (i) the need to rebuild the higher educationsystem in order to support the ambitiousdevelopment scheme envisioned by the Government, (ii) the need to focus attention and resourceson agriculturaldevelopment, and (iii) the active participationby the Bank Group in financing these activities. The first formal request for assistance came in June 1980 with the Government'ssubmissionof a paper which laid out the status, plans, and needs for higher education. The resulting project was rapidly formulatedin under a year. On June 23, 1981, an IBRD loan of US$100.0 million equivalent and an IDA credit of SDR 81.4 million (about US$100 million equivalent) were approved to support a University Development Project (Ln. 2021/Cr. 1167),which supportedthe first phase of a massive effort to reconstructhigher education. The Loan/Creditprovided funds to improve the teaching and research functions of science and engineeringdepartmentsat 26 of China's 100 key universities. This was not only the first lending operation in China, but was also the single largest amount ever providedby the Bank Group for an education project, much less an operation devoted exclusively to higher education.3 1.14 Although strategiesfor agriculturewere still emerging, receptivity to Bank Group financing for at least some aspects of sectoral development prompted the Chinese to seek assistance, and in June 1982, the Executive Directors approved a credit of SDR 54.0 million (about US$60.0 million equivalent)for the North China Plain AgriculturalProject. This project focused /1 China: Socialist EconomicDevelonment. (Report#3391-CHA)June 1, 1981. Al Thie projectvas completed on time and has been audited (ProjectPerformanceAudit Report, China - UniversityDevelogmentProiect,Report No. 7561, December 30, 1988).  - 5 - on one of the country's most productive and populated regions, whose fertile soils nonetheless had been historically subject to drought, salinity and waterloggingattendantupon poor drainage. Pilot projectshad demonstratedthat, with suitable facilities, additional lands could be reclaimed and become productive for a wide range of crops. The North China Plain Project was the first attempt to extend these pilot schemes to a large area.!' II. PROJECT GENERATION A. Overview 2.01 In early 1981, the Chinese State Agricultural Commission (SAC) established a Project Leadership Team, a Project Committee, and a Specialist Expert Committeeto conduct a feasibilitystudy, completea b.ckgroundpaper, and formulatethe project. Over one hundred individualswere involved in preparing the feasibilitystudy and other backgrounddocuments. The formal applicationfor a project was made in June 1981, and within seventeen months the project was presented to the Board. An Identification mission took place in July 1981, and an Appraisal mission followed in October the same year. Six IDA staff were involvedin the Preparationmission,nine in the Appraisal,and five in the Post- Appraisal. Staff from both education and agricultural operating divisions participatedthroughout. Negotiationstook place in April 1982, and on November 2, 1982, the Executive Directors approved a Credit in the amount of SDR 67.8 (US$75.4million equivalent) for a project est-1mated to cost US$201.6 million equivalent. B. Identificationof Problems 2.02 The Audit feels that problem analysis during project generationwas quite thorough, especiallyin light of the paucity of informationavailable and the speed with which the project was assembled. The SAR grouped problems or weaknesses into three main categories. These were: i) poor quality of teaching and research output owing to inadequate equipment, underqualified staff, and inappropriate curriculum;ii) low level of output of graduatesand researchowing to lack of space and/or substandard facilitiesand the absence of postgraduate programs; and iii) inefficientorganization and managementof resources owing to poor linkages between institutions,inefficient utilizationof staff and space, and weak library and administrative management. 2.03 AtriculturalHigher Education. In the late 1970s there was no clear picture of the supply of or demand for trained agriculturalmanpower, yet there was implicit agreement thatt i) numbers and quality were inadequate by any standard and that ii) institutionsproducing agricultural professionals and Thisproject on time andhas beenaudited(Project was completed Performance AuditReport, North China Plain AariculturalProlect,Report No. 7736, April 28, 1989). scientistsneeded priority attention in order to overcome supply side problems. All availableevidencepointed toward the low human capital base from which China was starting. In a country with nearly 300 million farm families, there were only 3,000 individualswith postgraduatetraining in agriculturalsubjects; of these, only 101 had doctorates. Rudimentary estimates of the stock of total agriculturalprofessionalsranged from 172,000 to 201,000 in 1979. Thie figure, coupledwith the number of farm familiee,gave a ratio of 1 professional to every 1,493-1,744families (or every 815-1,020households), which was one of lowest in the world. It was determinedthat, in order to bring the ratio of households to professional manpower more in line with internationalstandards by 1990, an approximate doubling of the total stock of professional manpower and a quadrupling of the number of graduates from postgraduate programs would be required. This was a tall order. 2.04 At the time, seventy-three institutions, includingnine "key" schools, had agriculturalfaculties. They enrolled 80,600 students, or about 82 of the total number at the tartiary level. Less than 1S of this enrollmentwas at the postgraduatelevel. The quality of studentswas low, as agriculture was not the first choice for many. Student freedom to select course of study had increased during the late 1970s, even though total numbers allowed into any given program continued to be limited by a quota system organizedby the Ministry of Education and based on a socialist labor allocationmodel. That agriculturewas not a preferred field of study was evident from low entrance scores accepted by the agriculturalfaculties. 2.05 Staff at the institutionswere overly abundant, relatively young, inbred, and underqualified. There were 21,000 instructors, yielding a student/teacher ratio of 3.8:1. This was unnecessarilygenerous in light of the paucity of postgraduateprograms. About 502 of the staff were under 45 years of age and graduates of the institutionsin which they taught. About 80X had less than 5 years of post secondary education themselves. 2.06 Many of the institutions had been relocated during the Cultural Revolution, and the return of institutionsto their original sites after 1977 posed enormous problems of reoccupation,renovation,and replacement of school buildings, not to mention effective space utilization. The absence of basic scientificequipmentwas so severe that only about half of the experimentsneeded to meet educationalrequirementscould be performed. Poorly trained library and administrativestaff compoundedmanagement and quality problems. 2.07 Major shortcomingsin the undergraduatecurriculumincludedpremature and excessive specialization, insufficient attention to broad (systemic) agricultural problems, and inadequate coverage of the social sciences. The tendency toward compartmentalizationproduced graduateswith knowledge of their own technicalareas, but limited understandingof agricultureas a total system. There were no agriculturaloutreach/education units to develop, test, or teach extension methodologies. And althoughhalf of the institutionshad established departments of agriculturaleconomics,this field enrolled only 32 of the total student body in 1980.  -7 - 2.08 Agricult_ral Research. Agricultural research also had problems of capacity, quality, and management. As with the universities, most research instituteslacked even minimally adequate facilities. Equipment was obsolete, consumables were inadequate, pover sources were unreliable, and computers virtually nonexistent. The lack of postgraduatestudy at the university level was particularly devastating because it meant that few individuals were adequately trained for careers as research scientists. In the late 1970s, the Chinese took an innovative step by authorizing a number of national research institutes to establish graduate programs. Students, typically staff of the institute, would take postgraduate courses at one of the universities but complete the research requirements at the institute. Although the primary purpose of this move was to rapidly increase the stock of trained scientific researchers,it was anticipatedthat it would also build linkages between the institutesand the universities. Althoughthis was a positive step and augmented university efforts, some feared that a sense of urgency could outweighthe need for prudent long range planning of postgraduateprograms. 2.09 Apart from constraintsaffectingfacilitiesand manpower,the structure of the system encouragedinefficiency and duplicationof effort. A large number of specializedbodies coexisted with overlapping responsibilitiesfor various aspects of scientificresearch,includingthe ChineseAssociationfor Science and Technology (CAST), the State Science and Technology Commission (SSTC) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). In addition to having policy-making functions,each of these agenciesalso maintainedand operatedcommodity-specific research institutesscattered throughoutthe provinceswhich handled both basic and applied research. Another major part of the research community was constitutedby ministry-supervised research. In agriculturalrasearch,the most prominent was the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAMS) under the Ministry of Agriculture,Animal Husbandry and Fishery (MAAF). 2.10 Moreover,althoughthe verticalorganization of research,training,and extension efforts appeared fairly efficient--as evidenced by the effective disseminationof research findings in the past--intra-institutional cooperation along horizontal lines was weak. There were no effective mechanisms for negotiating and setting research priorities or established procedures for allocatingresourcesto priorityprograms. Therewas no structurefor connecting or coordinatingresearch efforts across the wide variety of governmental bodies responsible for them. Similarly, there was no system for selecting, assigning and financing university research and linking it to that of the research institutes. As a consequence,research entities tended to operate separately. The fact that linkages amongvarious parts of the systemwere ad hoc and informal at best, and non-existentat worst, meant that excessiveduplication of research effort was likely. C. Identificationof Solutions 2.11 IDA and the Borrower agreed in most respects concerningthe nature of the problems, and these shared perceptionsfacilitatedproject formulation. In addition to aforementioned perceptions about the need to restore tertiary educationand continuebuildingon agricultural growth,both IDA and the Borrower assumedthat strengtheningagriculturaleducation and researchwould contribute to modernizing agriculture and raising agriculturalproduction. 2.12 With regard to the role of agriculturalhigher education and research in development, the Staff Appraisal Report (SAR) is explicits "Two major constraints impede efforts to apply science and technology to improve agricultural development: the shortage of well trained manpower in the agriculturalsciences and the inadequacyof the researchoutput in these fields" (para. 2.23). The SAR further stated, "China's agricultural education and research systems are handicapped by uneven quality of output, inadequate capacity, and inefficient management. The proposed project will assist the Government in addressing these problems as part of its long-term objective of modernizing agriculturethereby raising agriculturalproduction" (para. 6.01). 2.13 The Governmentthought the best strategyfor addressingthe weaknesses in agricultural education and research was selectively upgrading certain institutions. It identified eleven agricultural colleges and six existing research institutesand prepared the initial request for assistancebased upon this strategy. Colleges were selected on the basis of their institutional quality and potential (including9 key schools), favorable location (in each of the six geographical areas), sizable enrollment (about one fourth of all agriculturalenrollments), and better quality of staff. The research institutes identifiedcovered areas important for agriculturalgrowth, such as animal and aquatic products,water conservation, meteorology,and forestry. In addition, a plan for the establishment of the China National Rice Research Institute (CNRRI)vas developed. 2.14 While IDA had no problem with the Government'sapproachof selectively upgrading a group of diverse institutions under one lending operation, some IDA staff favored placing the project in a context of broader institutionaland systems development to ensure linkages between extension, research, and trainingleducation activities. The possibilityof supportingextensiondirectly was raised only briefly before being tabled for a later project, althoughinputs designed to strengthenextension trainingwere included. 2.15 Staff also pointed to organizational and resourcemanagementproblems and indicated the desirabilityof not only rehabilitating,but fundamentally restructuring,some aspectsof project institutions and the systems of which they formed a part. Nevertheless,it is clear from the dialogue during preparation and the eventual scope of the project that the Government'sprioritiesremained those of strengtheningthe basic education and research functions at the level of the institutions. Perhaps the Governmentwas not comfortablein securingIDA assistancefor componentsthat would involve fundamentalorganizational changes in an undetermined direction. Perhaps the sense of urgency overrode other considerations. Whatever the reasons, the ultimateproject was tightly focused  - 9- on eleven colleges, six existing research institutes,and CNRRI.1 1 Management and organizational issues were not addressed at the level of the system, but through limited support for the individual institutions. (A list of project institutions and their administrative affiliations at the time of Approval appears as Annex 2.) D. Prolect Obiectives and Inputs 2.16 The project contained three explicit objectiveswhich addressed the weaknesses identified during Appraisal: i) improving teaching and research quality, ii) expanding enrollment and research capacity, and iii) imptoving resourceorganizationand management. The project also contained two studies of agriculturalmanpower and research, which were intendedto generateknowledgeand set the stage for further IDA assistanceand two evaluationcomponentsaimed at monitoring the achievement of project objectives (ttacer studies and an evaluationmatrix). Covenantswere fairly standard,except for the addition of those governing: i) the establishmentof the structure and functions of the Project Office and Project Commission; ii) the employment of specialists and experts; iii) the criteria for selection of fellows; iv) the implementationof the researchand manpower studies;v) the yearly monitoringof project objectives against targets agreed and set forth in the evaluation matrix; and vi) the implementation of the tracer studies. 2.17 Objective l: ImprovinR teaching and research auality. The specific inputs for this objective were buildings and equipment, expatriate specialist assistance, overseas fellowships and study tours. It was hoped that overall institutionalquality would also improve by promoting intercollegeexchange of students, sending students to different schools for undergraduate and postgraduatestudy, and raising admission standards. To improve the quality of admissions,measures would be taken to ensure that the proportion of freshmen admittedwith national college entrance scores below 340 would be reduced from 7S in 1981 to less than 1S in 1986. 2.18 Physical inputs included laboratory equipment and instruments, computers, library and audiovisualequipment,books and journals and laboratory materials and reagents, as well as new or renovated spaces to house these materials. It was expectedthat the proportionof courseswith experimentswould increase from 592 to 832 as a result of providing the equipment. The laboratory equipment allocated to collegeswould be used mainly for practical training in undergraduatecourses and for postgraduate training and research to a lesser extent. Laboratory equipment for the research instituteswould be used almost entirelyfor research,except where graduatetrainingprogramswere present. One of the more innovativecivil works items was the establishmentof two language training centers to house the languagespecialistsdescribed below. The single Somewhat latein the Appraisal stage,IDAproposed incorporating CNRRIand adding it to the list of six institutions already selected. Since considerable preparatory work had already been done regarding its proposed establishment (much with assistance from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)in the Philippines), the Chinese were happy to acceptits inclusion for IDA financing.  - 10 - largest constructionitem WaS CNRRI, which was to be establishedat the Huang- Tien-Fan State Farm near Hangzhou City in Zheijian Province. It would involve construction/remodeling and equipping of 107,000 sq.m. of new facilities and 5,000 sq.m. of existing facilities. 2.19 The project was intended to provide about 30 staff-yearsof language training experts and about 12 staff-years of short term assistance in agricultural sciences to help to: increase foreign language competency among Chinese scholars destined for study abroadt develop additional courses and postgraduateprograms, consolidate overspecialized uniergraduateprograms, and strengthenstaff of the CNRRI and other research institutes. Over 150 graduate 11 Basic courses in level courses were expected to be approved and introduced. 4arming systems would be introcuced and enroll 50% of the students by project completion. Agricultural education/extension--which did not exist as a separate disciplineor career stream in China prior to the project--would be established in six of the eleven colleges. Agriculturaleconomicsand management courses at both graduate and postgraduatelevelswere to be strengthenedand to enroll 10% of the relevant student cohort by 1985/86. 2.20 In addition to creating programs and courses deemed necessary to the curriculum,the project also sought to postponeundergraduatespecialization and consolidateunderutilizedprograms. Project planners assumed that the gradual expansionof postgraduatedegree programswould reduce the need to provide depth through specialization at the undergraduatelevel (SAR, para. 2.12). However, they also tried to enst?re some consolidationby requiring project institutions to reduce the proportionof specializedprogramshaving fewer than 100 students from 382 to less than 102 of their total undergraduateprograms. Specialists were to play a key role in this consolidationeffort. Although not ohjecting to the inclusion of curriculum consolidation in the task description for specialists, a method of monitoring progress was not determined, and this indicator was dropped from the final form of the evaluationmatrix. There was agreement, however, that all colleges would change their programs to allow students to postpone specializinguntil the third year. 2.21 At the time the project was appraised,only 17% of the 7,554 teaching and research staff at project institutions had more than four years of postsecondaryeducation. Over half of the college faculty had studied at the same college where they were then teaching. Only a few staff in the top three grades were under 45 years old and held Master's degrees; none held PhDs. The project was to provide a total of 720 staff-yearsfor 633 overseas fellowships and grants for 429 college and 204 researchinstitutestaff. Of these, 201 would be for short term (2-6 month) study tours, 244 would be for one year advanced study'tours, 147 would be for masters degrees and 41 would be for doctoral degrees. By 1985/86,it was anticipatedthat: (i) the percentageof staff with less educationthan four years post secondarywould drop from seventeento five; 6I The SAR discussed the development of postgraduateprograms under the second objective, expansionof enrollment. From the point of ex Rost analysisand discussionshowever,it makes more sense to regard it as a quality Input.  - 11 - (ii) the percentageof staff in the top three grades under 45 years old holding Doctoral and Master's degrees would increase to 52 and 15S, respectiv:y; and (iii) the proportion of staff who were graduates of the college in which they taught would drop to less than half. Increasedquality of research staff was to be measured by increased circulation and validation of research output, with greater emphasison publishingin nationaland international s^ient4ficjournals. 2.22 Objective2: Eg2andingenrollmentand researchcapacity. The project aimed at rehabilitating existing facilities and conseruct new dormitories, classroomsand laboratories. Based mainly on the provisionof additionalspace, the number of undergraduateswas expectedto increasefrom 18,350 to about 23,500 and the number of postgraduatesfrom 436 to 2,020--about1,910 postgraduates(942 of the total) at a college or university, the remainder affiliatedwith one of the research institutes. Undergraduateoutput was expected to increase from 4,229 in 1980/81 to 5,025 in 1985/86 and the percentageof females in freshman classes to increase from 172 to 212. 2.23 Objective 3: Im2roving resource organizationand management. The inputs for this objective were management specialist services and overseas trainingfor staff of the project institutionsand implementing units. A total of 5 staff-years of specialist assistance would be provided to assist in improving space utilization,financial and academic records keeping, operation of library facilities and inter-college/institutelinkages. Over 100 administrators(includingpresidentsand vice presidentsof colleges, institute directors, registrars, and directors of computer centers) were to be sent for study tours to observe the management of similar institutions abroad. In addition, 33 library staff would receive fellowshipsfor postgraduate or short 2 In retrospect, it term overseas study in library and information sciences. is clear that this was the least well developed of the three objectives. The level and type of inputs were limited in size and scope, expected outcomeswere insufficientlyelaborated, and indicators against which to assess performance were minimal. 2.24 AgriculturalManpower and Research Studies. The studies represented a somewhat controversialcomponent from the outset, and over the course of project formulationIDA and the Borrowertook conflictingand sometimes shifting positions with regard to their scope and placement. IDA educators expressed concernwith allocativeiuefficiencies, particularly the overly generousstaffing ratios, excessive number of specializations at the undergraduate level, inefficientspace utilization,and ad hoc planning of university programs. IDA agricultural staff were concerned about the lack of coordinationwithin the researchcommunityand recommended that, as a prerequisite to IDA assistance,the Government clarify how it would conduct research leading to increases in agriculturalproductionas well as how it would structure linkages among various research entities in order to foster efficient collaboration. These staff 2/ It vas not clear from the SARwhether the management and library study tourslfellowships were to be included in the 720 staff-yearsdiscussedpreviously. The Audithas assumed thatthey werenot.  - 12 - advocateda comprehensiveapproachto assisting whichwould incorporate research the settingand ratlonalizationof research priorities.In fact, the creation of an integrated researchsystemwas briefly one of the project'sexplicit objectives. Noting the absence of information, the initial Project Brief proposedstudieswhichwouldgenerate theneededinformation,contribute to long- term planning,and lay the foundationsfor furtherinvestment. 2.25 ConsiderableIDA staff time during preparationwas devoted to developing the rationale and scope of the proposed studies. Both the Identification and Appraisal missions recommended including them under the project. The December 1981 Issues Paper recommendedagainst this, however, on the grounds that the Govermnentwas planning to undertake the studies on it own anyway. Nevertheless, IDA,management continued to favor inclusion of the studies. The DecisionMemorandumaffirmedtheir importance,the need to include them in the project, and the possibilityof IDA financingfor them. It directed the Post-Appraisal mission to discuss the purpose, scope, method of execution of and expected benefits from the studies and assist in drafting their terms of reference. Finally, it noted that, since the Bank's country and economic sector a.alogue with China was proceeding more slowly than desired, collaborative efforts within the context of the two studies might have the added benefit of getting the Borrower accustomedto IDA interest in such matters. 2.26 The Loan Committee subsequently endorsed this position and stated unequivocallythat the studieswere the foundationfor the project. It pointed to the risks stemming from IDA's ignorance of China's research system and the risks attached to preceding with large investments in agricultural education without a better understanding of actual needs. It also noted that the justification for financingthe large amount of equipmentshould be linked to the studies and to the dialoguebetween IDA and the Borrowerthat would emerge in the process of doing them. Finally,the Committeereaffirmedthat the studies should be accepted by the Government as a part of the project, and that the C-o ittee should be consulted during Negotiations if it was proposed to deviate from the treatment of the studies as outlined at that time. 2.27 The Government did agree to carry out the studies in accordancewith timing and terms of reference acceptableto the Association,and to provide the Associationwith a summaryand analysisof the findingsat their conclusion. The project financed technical assistance for the studies, which were under the direction of special task forces composed of senior Chinese specialists. The manpower study, which was to be conducted in a pilot province, was to assess for highand mediumlevelmanpover futurerequirements (as a basis in agriculture and build Chinese expertise in manpowe- for identifying future inveaitments) planning, survey and projection methodologies. The research study was to and related objectives development among agricultural develop: i) priorities research areas and ii) study proposals for strengtheningand modernizing the agriculturalresearch system. 2.28 At some point, IDA had proposed to include the studies under the third objective,as a prelude to addressingthe larger issues of resourceorganization and management. During negotiations, and presumably at the request of the  - 13 - Government, the studieswere moved to a separate category,"facilitatingthe developmentof agriculturaleducationand researchand identifying and preparing future investments 1 in these areas."A There is no evidence that this was discussed with the Loan Committee. In the final analysis,for all their importanceto establishingmanpowerand researchneeds,the studieswere treated as an sb%pendage 1' to the project. 2.29 Pro1ect Monitoringand Evaluation. There were two evaluation in the projectt tracer studiesand a projectevaluation componer.ts matrix. Annualtracersurveys were to be undertakento monitorthe externalefficiency of project institutions, in essence the fit between field of academic and the employment specialization of graduates. 2.30 the projectenumerated From its inception, a set of specificgoals against which progress could be measured. Project objectiveswere translated into twenty measurable indicators and generally quantifiable targets in four categories: quantitativechange, qualitativechange, research improvement,and managementimprovement. It was expectedthat progresswould be monitored at mid- project (1983/84)and at completion (1985/86). As the project was formulated, the content of the matrix changed somewhat to reflect the declining focus on system management and internal efficiency issues. During Negotiations,final agreementwas reached on the scope of the indicatorsand their specific targets as well as on the principal of monitoring and evaluating project performance using the evaluation matrix and tracer survey tools. Annex 3 compares the originalwith the eventual format of the evaluationmatrix. Arranaements E. Financins Plan and Imnlementation 2.31 In keeping with the favored focus of the project, the overwhelming proportionof project investment (some 972) went to the first two objectivesof improvingquality and expanding capacity (US$91.2million and US$73.7 million, withoutcontingencies). respectively, Less thanUS$6.0million(the remaining 3Z) was allocated to improve the organizationand management of resources and prepare the studies. IDA intended to cover two-thirdsof the cost of improving quality--mostto be spent on equiment--while the Government would cover the lion's share of the amov need to construct,remodel and furnish the facilities needed. Annex 4 give v a breakdown of estimated project cost by project objective,and Annex 5 gives the financial plan by category of expenditure. sI Record of Negotiations Memorandum,April 29, 1982. 9I Despite the Government'sobvious reluctanceover them, IDA continued to regard the studies as pivotal to the Bank's long term strategy. At the time the project was presented to the Board, staff emphasizedthat this project was consistent with Bank support for human resource development, organizationalreform in the agriculture sector, and long-rangeplanning affecting agriculturalresearch programs.  - 14 - 2.32 It was estimated that the project would increase the annual recurrent outlays for higher agriculturaleducationand researchby US$16.0million, or 7Z. The SAR stated that this represented lees than one half of 12 increase in the total budget for all levels of oducation,training and research in the country, which was about US$12.3 billion. Half of the increase in recurrent cost would finance increasedenrollmentstthe remaininghalf would financethe operationand maintenance of new scientificequipment, including computers. 2.33 The project had been prepared under the direction of the SAC, but by April 1982,when the project was being negotiated,the Governmentwas undergoing a reorganization. Although SAC still existed as an entity, it was unclear what final form it would take.L t0 SAC was subsequently superseded by &everal ministries,and project managementwas overseenby the MinisterialCoordination Commission composed of ministers and agency heads of the MAAF, Ministry of Forestry (MOF),Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power (MWREP),and the State Meteorology Administration(SMA). Under this commissionwas the Project Management Committee (PMC) composed of eleven members from ministries and agenciesinvolvedin the project. Projectmanagementand operationwas under the authority of the PMC, whose members are listed in Annex 6. 2.34 Projectmanagementarrangements were elaboratebut well laid out. Day- to-day administration was to be handled by a Project Office (PO), which was constituwed in the MAAF. The duties of the PO included: liaisingwitl IDA on all project-relatedmatters, monitoring all aspects of civil works activities, reviewingequipmentlists and preparingtender documents, monitoring procurement of local purchases,recruitingspecialists, administering placement of fellows, maintaining records and accounts, and monitoring project budgets and achievements. although the PO also was to benitor the progress on the project studies, responsibility for their execution rested ultimatelywith MAAF. Each of the eighteen project institutions woulc also establish a Project Management Office (PMO) to oversee local implemen:ation, including: appointing and supervising contractors,assistingin the drawingup of equipmentspecifications, supervising equipment installation,operatl'n and maintenance, and procuring local equipment. It was estimatedthat the Pt ject Office would consist of about ten staff, while project implementationpersonnel at each irstitution would number about fifteen. 2.35 Finally, a Project Commission (PC) maib up of representativesof the eighteen project institutions would constitutea number of professionalpanels to oversee technical aspects of the project. The main functions of the PC includedt providingtechnicalguidance;assistingthe PO with equipmentpurchase and the individualinstitutions with installation, utilizationand maintenance; facilitatingimplementation of institutional staff tevelopmentplans--including placement of scholars for overseas study; and determining requirements for specialistservices and supervisiono: specialists. During project preparation IDA expressed the desire that the PC also play a role in coordinatingequipment To cover any changes resulting Article fromthe reorganization, 1 of the Credit Agreement and relevant In the SAR refer to the SAC *and any successor paragraphs thereto".  - 15 - procurement with the intended consolidation of university courses and rationalizationof research priorities,but in the end, the PC did not fulfill this broader role. 111. PROJECT IMPLEMENTUTION A. ImplementationOverview 3.01 The project was basically implementedas designedwithin the cost and time parameters established at Appraisal. There wero five amendments to the Credit A reement,none of which substantiallyaltered the scope or content of the project.-' The Credit account was closed on March 31, 1989, an extension of nine months to the original Closing Date. Disbursements continued until September 1, 1989. The total Credit amount of SDR 67.8 million was disbursed, but because of the increasingvalue of the US dollar, this amounted to US$73.25 million equivalent, slightly less than the US$75.4 million envisioned at Appraisal. 3.02 In US dollars, total project costs amounted to US$184.5 equivalent,a 91 cost underrun. IDA provided 402 of the investment (rather than the 37Z envisioned). When measured in US dollars, the Government's share also fell-- from US$126.2million to US$111.2million equivalent. This apparentdeclinewas due to fluctuations in the exchange rate between the Yuan and the US dollar. Actual allocations by project category differed somewhat from Appraisal, as illustratedin Annex 7. Local currency comparisonsshowed a cost overrun of 151 and an increase of the Government'scontributionby 24Z. B. Performance of ImplementineAgencies and IDA 3.03 Although project execution did not suffer specifically from the reorganizationof SAC, some problemswere experienced. Because the PO required specializations not available in the HAAP, the latter requested othermembers of the Ministerial CoordinationCommittee to help staff the PO. This arrangement did not work entirely smoothlyand was exacerbatedby the length of time it took to implementthe project. The CompletionReport preparedby the Governmentnoted the high annual rate of staff turnover (some 182) and the difficulty in maintaining an appropriate complimentof staff throughout implementation. It suggested that, in future, staff positions, staffing levels and candidate qualificationsbe even more specificallydelineated in the project documents. The Borrower's concern notwithstanding, aggregatestaffinglevels in the PO were higher than anticipatedat Appraisal,rising to a total of 35 in 1986. Given the Thefiveamendments entailedt(i)establishing a Special AccountI (ll)allowingdisbursement against statements of expenses (Sole); (11i) Increasng allovancesfor equipment, books/journals and fellovships/training and decreasing those for specialist services; (iv) increasing the procurement ceiling for limited international tendering; and (v)extending the Closing Date.  - 16 - fact that the PO was implementingthree projects by that time, this increasewas necessary to keep implementation on schedule. 3.04 The number and location of baneficiary institutions from multiple ministries and agencies provided a difficultmanagerial task, but the PO did an exceptional job in coordinating efforts and meeting deadlines and targets. Effectiveness was aided by a core of dedicatedstaff (about 40Z of the total) who remained throughoutimplementation. Given the inexperience of the implementing agencies and the inherent complexity of the project design, implementation was remarkably efficient. This is reflected in a number of ways. In the first place, disbursementsgenerally exceeded targets. The first six months period after Credit Effectivenessin February 1983 was slow and disbursementsfor FY83 were lower than expected. But as procedures were established, disbursement percentages shot up and actually exceeded annual targets for much of the remainder of the implementation period. In the second place, annual reporting was regular and thorough. This was aidedby the establishment of a comprehensive computerizedmonitoring system in the PO which included,but was not limited to, the evaluation matrix. Monitoring of various implementationindicators was generallymeticulous. Finally, IDA SupervisionSummaries (Form 590) contained Performance Ratings of 1 ("Problem-free or Minor Problems") for virtually all indicatorsthroughout implementation. 3.05 Effective project managementwas complemented by the cordial dialogue between IDA and the Borrowerwhich prevailed throughout implementation.Aa' The Audit mission found that supervisioninputs were generally sufficient(in terms of frequency and staffing) to cover most issues arising during implementation. There were twelve IDA supervisionmissions, with an average interval of eight months and an average mission length of two weeks. The project was overseen primarily by educators and agricultural educators,with occasional help from agriculturalresearch and procurementspecialists. 3.06 The Audit noted that IDA staff were frequentlyoverextendedwhile in the field--supervising two or three projects while preparing another--so that their ability to focus on this project in any depth was limited. Nonetheless, staff were often able to identifypotentialproblemsand propose actions to avoid them (suchas establishingthe SpecialAccount and allowingdisbursements against SOEs). They also supplied technicaladvice where it was merited and appreciated (for equipmentprocurementand study design, for example--see paras. 3.12, 3.25, 4.30). When issues arose, supervisionmissions left a detailed Aide Memoire which was then usually followedup by IDA management. 3.07 Two areaswhere improvedmonitoringwas needed were the procurementand utilizationof specialistservicesand civilworks construction. The first issue is discussed in detail in paragraph 3.18. Regarding civil works, it became obvious in late 1987 that, although facilities at most sites were progressing 121 Report TheCompletion andtheBorrower bytheGovernment prepared interviewed officials bythe Audit missionboth commentedfavorably providedby IDA upon the excellentassistance supervisionstaff.  - 17 - well and nearing completion,some--most notably those at CNRRI--wereconsiderably delayed. The project had been supervisedby an IDA architect only once, and that at a very early stage (October/November 19 8 3 ).L-1 IDA put minimal supervision input into civil works, perhaps because it was assumed to be the Borrower's prerogative or because no problems had been reported by the IDA architect or staff supervisingthe project or by the PO. Apparently,the PO was less involved in supervisingcivil works than either intendedby IDA (as evident from the tenor of the SAR) or the desired by the PO. The Government'sCompletionReport noted that the "responsibility contractsystem"was not yet in practiceat the time the project became effective and that civil works were carried out under an administrative arrangement under which the PO had the right to supervise and review the implementation scheduleand constructionquality only. Although the PCR stated that constructionof CNRRI was completed in October 1989, the Audit mission in October 1990 noted that completionwas still pending for the germplasm bank, the greenhouses and the training center. C. Execution of Project ComPonents 3.08 Civil Works. Despite delays, constructionand renovationactivities proceededwell at most sites and eventuallyexceededestimatedvolume by some 60S overall. The project constructed some 692,844 sq.m. of new buildings and rehabilitated42,600 sq.m. of existingbuildings,comparedwith the 481,717 and 39,399 sq.m. estimated at Appraisal. For the eleven universities, 22 new laboratorieswere constructedand 67 were renovatedas planned. Twelve new and fourteen existing labs were added. For the research institutes,a total of 49 labs, germplasm banks, greenhousesand/or machinery stationswere constructedor renovated. Six additional labs were also under constructionand in various stages of completionat the time of Audit. Based on their overseas experience, Chinese scholarswho had participatedin project-financed study tours recommended the constructionof the 32 extra laboratories. Increased allowance under the Credit for equipment also spurred this. 3.09 Constructedfacilitiesappearedwell designedand solidlybuilt to the Audit mission, and college and instituteofficials also expressed satisfaction. In addition to laboratoriesfor basic and special courses, a total of ten new central laboratory buildings (or analytical test centers) were established at nine colleges and one institute. These facilities housed the larger or more elaborate testing equipment--such as optical spectrometers, chromatographs, electrophoreticmeters, liquid scintillationcounters, high-speed centrifugal machines--aswell as computer facilitiesand electronmicroscopes. It seemed to the Audit mission that consolidationof this type of sensitive and expensive equipment under one roof (ratherthan dispersionthroughoutthe campus according to departmentallocation) had certain advantagesas it facilitatedmaintenance and the monitoring of usage. 13 Although an IDAarchitect also visited China as partof a supervision mission in October 1985, his termsof reference did not extend to Cr. 1297, and tbhre is no evidence that he evaluated the progress made under this project.  - 18 - 3.10 ECuipment. Selection,procurement,and installationwere expeditiously done. As anticipated,equipmont was acquiredthrough a process involvinga large number of China'smost respectedagricultural scientists gathered into scientific and technical panels under the direction of the Project Commission. The PC representeda wide spectrumof scientificinterests, was guided by technical and professional considerations, and emphasized decision making by end ueers. Valuable equipment selection expertise was acquired as well as experience in matching research and curriculumneeds with resource availability. 3.11 Equipment totalling US$52.4 million--or 71.5Z of the Credit--was procured in some 8,109 lots, of which 1,560were acquiredby direct purchase and the rest through tendering. All equipment designated for the colleges was delivered and installedby the end of 1987. Equipment installation for research instituteslagged somewhat, on occasion pendingcompletionof physical facilities to house it. Nevertheless,as of June 1988, virtually all of the equipment commissioned had been accepted and was in good operating condition. Dissatisfactionwas expressed in very few cases, as with some computers whose quality was questionable and whose capacitywas undesirably low. 3.12 IDA monitored equipmentprocurementand providedstaff and consultants to assist the Borrowerwith equipment list preparationand ICB procedures. In addition, in mid-1985, IDA conducted a comprehensive mid-term evaluationof the installation, operation and impact of the equipment purchased on the education and research functions of each institution. Some of the problems identifiedby the mission included: unresolved claims against suppliers, distribution of equipment,and supply of parts, consumables andpower. Apparently not realizing that a certain portion of total costs could be retained until equipment was satisfactorilyinstalled and in use, the Borrower had paid the full price when a bill of lading had been presented. This made it difficult to ensure supplier compliancewith warranty obligations. The mission took note of the outstanding disagreementsand the companies involved, and by completionmost such problems had been resolved. Through this experience,Borroweragenciesbecame more adept at negotiatingguaranteesand performancebonds, so the problemwas not repeated. Nevertheless,it seemed to the Audit mission that a simple opportunityto educate the Borrower ex ante had been missed by the numerous procurementmissions which had visited China during the early stages of project implementation. 3.13 There were a few cases where too many of one kind of equipmenthad been delivered to one institution and none to another. The mid-term evaluation pointed out these discrepanciesand encouragedthe-MAAFto coordinateexchanges between institutionsto maximize utilization. It appearedto the Audit mission that this had been done to some extent. Mechanisms for sharing equipmentwere in place and operational,although on a more informal and decentralizedbasis than envisaged by the mid-term reviewers. 3.14 The power supply problem was reflected in several ways. For institutions in lesser developed areas of the country, a general electrical capacity shortage restrictedthe operation of some equipment. The possibility that power outages would damage sensitive equipment was another cause for concern. Finally, being identified as agriculturalinstitutions (rather than  - 19 - research or industrial)meant that they were classed as lower priority users, and thus were not entitled to the level of power needed to operate the ecuipment effectively. Irregular power supply was not mentioned to the Audit mission as a major continuing problem; it is possible that issue had diminished in importance, at least for those institutions visited by the mission. Nevertheless, the Audit would like to point out the extent to which such ostensibly exogenous "infrastructural" problems arise in education projects, adverselyaffectingimplementation and impact,and reiteratethe need for project planners to take such issues into considerationduring project preparation.?4 3.15 SiecialistAssistance. In total, 47 staff years of specialistservice were to be provided in three categories: 12 for short-term assignments of academic specialists;30 for languagetrainingspecialists; and 5 for management specialists. The SAR noted that the Government gave assurances that it would submit draft terms of reference for review and select specialistsin accordance with the Association's "Guidelines for the Use of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers" (August 1981). The Credit Agreement did not specify submission of terms of reference, but only Borrower agreement to employ experts "whose selection, qualifications,experience and terms and conditions of employment shall be satisfactoryto the Association in accordancewith the principles and procedures described in the 'Guidelines'"(Section 3.02). Schedule 5 of the Credit Agreement described the three categorieswithout further detail. 3.16 Implementation was mixed. The innovativelanguagetraining component was very successful. In total, fifty staff-years were used to acquire the servicesof 54 languageteachers. The languageteachersnot only preparedaround 1,000 students for overseas study between 1983-87, but helped establish two English languagecenters in the Central China AgriculturalCollege in Wuhan and the Forestry College at Beijing Universityand train 22 English secretariesand 38 English teachers in project institutions. Both language centers, whose construction was financed by the Credit, were provided with fully equipped language laboratories. Language training was a sine qua non for effective implementation of the overseas study program, and those formulating and implementing the project are to be credited for including and successfully executing this important component. The institutionalizationof language training in the two centers was an important side benefit, and one on which subsequentprojects have been able to build. 3.17 Academic and management trainingwere less successful. Sixty experts participated for about 5.33 years, less than half of the original allocation. Although it was difficult to make an aggregate alssessment given the highly diversified nature of the intended contributions,Chinese evaluators judged forty-sixspecialists"successful" based upon whether counterpartsfelt they had learned any thing new or not. Reasons cited for underutilizationand poor performance of specialists included: (i) language difficulties/poor 14I See. for exampl, Audit* of Malaysia Third Education Project (ReportNo. 6280, June 27, 1986); EthiopiaFifth EducationProject (ReportNo. 7209,April 28, 1988);and PhilippinesFisheries Trainin8 Project (OED Report No. 8788, June 25, 1990).  - 20 - communicationg(ii) poor advancedpreparationon the part of specialists;(iii) lack of receptivity to the material on the part of Chinese scholars; and (iv) availabilityof lower cost assistance outside the project context. Language, prior contact with Chinese scholars, and ethnicity seemed to be key factors affecting specialist acceptance and effectiveness. In an informal survey of project institutions,the Audit mission noted that those specialistsmost often mentioned favorablywere those fluent in a Chinese language, of ethnic Chinese origin, or previouslyknown to hosting institutions. 3.18 Although IDA supervisionmissions noted the lags in implementingthe specialist assistancecomponents, they seemed unable or unwilling to force the issue with the Borrower, and eventuallycaved in to the Government'srequest to lower the allocation for that category in the Credit Agreement. It is the Audit's opinion that the componentwas designedand implemented with insufficient rigor and commitment on both sides. Presumed or hoped for contributionsin a number of areas (staff/programupgrading,developmentof postgraduate curriculum, management improvement, and course rationalization) were insufficiently specified. Detailed terms of reference for experts that identified their role in the developmentof their host institutions were rarely put forth. None of the evaluation indicators measured performance (much less impact) of specialists against agreed criteria. IDA's response throughout was passive, perhaps a reflection of the vagueness in which the specialist assistance component was couched. Ultimately, IDA did not insist on reviewing terms of reference and hesitated to insist in some of the areas (such as consolidation/rationalization of university programs)where specialistinput was expected to make an impact. 3.19 OverseasTraining. According to the SAR, there were two categoriesof overseastraining: facultyupgrading (providingfellowshipsin the agricultural sciencesand related fields) and administrative upgrading (providingfellowships in library and information sciences and for management training).1'-Faculty upgrading got off to a slow start because of delays in placing fellows. IDA suggestedthat the Borrowerretain a placementagenev,but Chinese officialsfelt that sufficientprofessionalcontactsexistedbetween China and the outsideworld to allow placement through individualinstitutions. The fact that, from 1984 to 1988, 911 faculty left to study overseas (44Z more than the 633 envisioned at Appraisal) attests to the accuracy of the Borrower'sviewpoint about placement. Annex 8 shows the actual phasing of the overseastrainingprogram by institution and category of study. 3.20 At Appraisal it was anticipatedthat 841 of all fellowswould study in English speaking countries, 132 in Japan, and 32 in other places. This was obtained in practice, as demonstrated in Annex 9. The United States alone received some 622 of all fellowship holders (including 792 of all doctoral candidates, 652 of all Master's candidates, and 572 of all advanced study fellows). The Chinese may have included fellows pursuing library and computer sciences in the former group because their professional enhancement involved advanced degrees, not just short tenm study.  - 21 - 3.21 There are discrepancies between the SAR, the PCR, the Government Completion Report, and the figures supplied to the Audit mission regarding the originaland actual numbers of fellowships for each categoryof study (doctorate, masters, advanced study tours). Annex 10 shows the various figures. Whatever the basis for comparison, targets were generally reached or exceeded without concomitant increase in project costs. Depending on the yardstick, aggregate targets were exceeded by anywhere from 44Z to 1251. Leaving non-degree study tours aside, it is interesting to note the huge increase in regard to those pursuing Doctoral (48-881) and Master's (121-157S) degrees. This occurred because many fellows sent abroad under the project were encouraged to find alternativesources of financingas soon as possible, thus freeing project funds to assist additional faculty and staff. In this they succeededAl'l Furthermore,the Government generallydid not make the follows comply with their nriginalstudy agenda, but encouragedthem to pursue relevant studies,up to and including additional advanced degrees. Thus, of the 378 students listed as pursuing Master's degrees, some 230 (or 611) were continuing in Doctoral prograuns . 3.22 The fact that so many were able to secure alternative financing supports the Borrower's contention that the fellowship holders performed extremely well. The Government Completion Report, as well as officials interviewed by the Audit mission, gave numerous examples of the scholastic excellence of the fellows. Based on the increase in their numbers and their academic performance, it would seem that the overseas training of Borrower agriculturalists was a huge success. That the Chinese were able to, in some cases, double the number of degree studentswithout also doublingthe cost to the project demonstrates considerable resourcefulnesson the part of both the Government and fellowship holders. 3.23 This is not the whole picture, however, since at the time of the Audit mission, only 406 individuals--less than half of the total number studying abroad--hadactuallyreturned,and of those, over 80X had been visiting scholars, not degree students. Annex 11 compares the total number going abroad against those returning by June 30, 1988 (when project completiondata was gathered) and October 30, 1990 (when the Audit mission was in the field). Of those pursuing Doctoraland Master's deLrees,an overwhelming proportion (772 and 85Z, respectively) were still abroad.l 3.24 The other category of overseas study was for managerial and professionalupgrading. The PCR noted that a total of 26 persons participated in library and informationscience studies,somewhatless than the 33 envisioned in the SAR. Although the SAR says that "over 100 college/institute The Government Completion Report noted thatover 200 students and scholarships had received other forms of financial support, mainly from hosting institutionts AZ' Agricultural Regional staff commenting upon a draft of this Audit noted that the estimated Implementationperiodof fiveyearsvas far too shortto successfully accomplish overseas forresearch, training and thatan implementation uf eight periu2d yearsismore realistic when suchcomponents are involved.The Auditconcurs vith thisobservation.  - 22 - administrators"would be sent abroad, the completionreports statethe target as 377, and the actual figure as 437, a 16X increase over the plan. Whatever the correct base figure, programmed targets were met. 3.25 Studies. The studieswere undertakenand submittedto IDA on schedule. IDA staff played an active and effective role in assistingwith the design and implementation of the studies,working closelywith local staffundertakingthem. The manpower study, which was conducted on a pilot basis in Jiangsu province by a team from Nanjing AgriculturalUniversity,more than fulfilled the agreement between the Government and IDA. It met both of its original objectives (of assessingmanpower requiremantsand helping the Borrower to acquire expertisein manpower planning and projection methodologies), and contributed toward preparationof the follow-onproject (the Second Agricultural Education Project, Ln. 2444/Cr. 1500-CHA,approved06/14/84). The research study was also conducted and found acceptableby IDA. Its findings were important in the shaping of the Second Agricultural Research Project (Cr. 1516-CHA, approved 09/11/84).io- 3.26 Proiect Monitoring and Evaluation. The tracer studies and evaluation componentswere executed as planned and within the agreed time schedule. Early in project implementation a computerized evaluationsystem was developedfor each project institution. This greatly facilitated monitoringprogress in achieving targets and the preparation of the Completion Report. Based on the positive experience with this project, an evaluation matrix was also incorporatedinto the Second Agricultural Education Project. IV. PROJECT ACHIEVEMENTSAND OUTCOMES 4.01 The first section of this chapterassesses the achievementof project targets and objectivesat Completionand at Audit. The impact of the studies is also discussed. As might be e'xpected from the strong preparation and exemplary implementation, targetsand objectives were generallymet or exceededby the time completiondata was gathered in 1987. Annex 12 presentsthis informationin the format of the evaluation matrix developed at Appraisal. The quality and capacity of university and research programs were enhanced. Undergraduate and postgraduate enrollment in agricultural subjects and output grew. The modest aims to improve resource organization and management were achieved to a limited extent. The Audit confirmed most of the PCR findings with regard to the achievement of objectives at completion. Where possible, the Audit has updated these findings. 4.02 The second section assesses outcomes against the backdrop of overall agricultural development during the period and IDA assistance to agriculture. Both studies were translated itto English.sent to IDA, and used extensively in the preparation of the followon projects. Study However, onlytheManpower through was available the correspondence files;the Research Studyhad been lost.  - 23 - Implementationof Cr. 1297-CAcoincided with major reformswhich greatly enhanced the dynamism of the agriculturalsector. The transfer of land use rights to individualfamers, dismantlingof communes, increasingliberalization of prices and markets, and decentralization of investment decision-making profoundly restructured the rural economy, resulted in rapid growth in agricultural production,and spurred demand for the servicesoffered by project institutions. 4.03 The third sectiondiscussesproject achievements within the context of the development of institutionsand systems of higher education and research. Several project colleges were upgraded to universities and many research institutesbroadened their mandate as a result of project assistance. Many had formed closeworking relationshipswith sister institutions abroad or with client groups at home. Nonetheless, the inattention to broader issues of system developmentexacerbatedproblemsof fragmentationand duplication,and may have contributed to the present proliferationof higher education institutions. 4.04 The fourth section presents findings related to the sustainabilityof the investment. At this stage, prospects for sustainability are favorable. Institutionsare generally maintaining appropriate levels and quality of both inputs and outputs in the post-completion phase, although there is still considerableneed to improve efficiency. There is significantextant demand by the economy for both their services and their graduates. The main concern is with factors outside the direct control of the project or the institutions, namely, prospects for long term financingand persistenceof allocativepatterns to higher education based upon manpower forecastingmethodologies long since discredited. A. Achievement of Protect Obiectives 4.05 Improvina Teachint and Research Oualitv. Most aspects of this objectivewere accomplishedsatisfactorily. Staff, facilitiesand programswere upgraded. The calibre of students also Improved, as did the number of intercollegeexchanges of students continuing on for advanced degrees."'t 4.06 Staff developmentgenerally took place along the lines envisioned at Appraisal (Annex 12). The proportion of staff with less education than four years of college dropped to around 5%. Those teaching in the same collegewhere they had studied also dropped, ana althoughonly slightly (from 51-46%), it was sufficientto have met the target. The proportionof younger staff with Master's degrees exceeded project targets by a wide margin, while the proportion with Doctoral degrees was only about half the target. The large numbers of staff still studying abroad may account for some of the shortfall in the latter category. In retrospect,a more effective indicatorfor staff development would have been the number of staff trained and returned to their Dosts. 1±/ Initially,only about 5X of all postgraduate studentswent to a differentcollegethan the one where they had completedtheir undergraduate work. By the late 1980a, this had gone up to 332.  - 24 - 4.07 Without question,the continuedabsence of these individualskept the full benefitsof their studies from being roalized for project institutions. It representeda serious,if temporary,brain drain for the country,and was a major area of concern for all Chinese officials Interviewedby the Audit mission. It had also been noted as a problem in the University Development Project (Ln. 2021/Cr. 1167). Relevant observationsfrom the Audit of that project are worth quoting in fulls The practice of requiring overseas fellows on higher degree programs, after completing the first year of study, to obtain a scholarship from the host university or other sources to finance the rest of their studies,apparentlyhad contributed to delays in the return of trained staff to their home universities. The PCR found that, as of December 1986, less than 5 percent of the 906 fellows had returned to China, and the audit mission's impressionwas that there was no significant change in early 1988. The abovementioned practicewes aimed at increasingthe number of staff trained in post-graduatedegrees,but the inadvertenthidden costs might includethe severanceof links between the fellowsand their home universities.L0' 4.08 At the time these operationswere being developed and implemented, neither IDA nor the Borrower anticipated the problems that might arise from sending scholars abroad to study. Now that problems have arisen and are being acknowledged, the Audit feels that the Borrower should review some of its practices which seem to exacerbate the situation. These practices include encouraging scholars to seek outside financing and allowing postgraduatework above that originally agreed with fellowshiprecipients. In discussionsvwth Borrower officials,the Audit mission pointed out that other countries have had similar experiences with errant scholars and have developedmechanisms aimed at minimizing the exodus,which they have applied with varying degrees of success. Some mechanisms include: choosing older, mid-careerprofessionals (as opposed to younger &nd more mobile individuals),requiring the posting of bonds on the part of family or friends,or contractingfellows for a certain number of years 1 following completion of studies.2 / The Audit felt that IDA could assist the Borrower in articulatingthe issues and exploringways of reversing or reducing the problem in the future, including placing additional covenants in the Loan/CreditAgreementswhich could help Borrowers keep their fellows on track. Insisting upon a break between Master's and Doctoral studies by requiring Lo/ See PPAR ChinaUniversity Pro1ect, Develonment op. cit.,para.42. £1' A recently completed OED study of Bank assistance to education in Indonesia reviewed the *xperience with project-financed fellowships and noted many of the issues dlcussed above, including the importance of language training. One of the main findings was that potential re-entry problem of fellowship holders were insufficiently considered by both project planners and supervisors. (Seeindonesian Educationand theWorldBank: An Assessment of Two Decades of Lendins, forthcoming.)  - 25 - fellowship holders to serve their home institution for an interim period Is another suggestionA./ 4.09 Equipment provided was essential in restoring and extending the capacity of institutions to undertake their basic functions, supporting the development of new courses, improving quality of teaching, increasing postgraduatesenrollments,and enabling research institutionsto undertake new research and, in some cases, gain the staturo necessary to become nationally recognizedcenters for certain commoditiesor activities. It was anticipated that the laboratoryequipmentprovidedwould permit the 11 colleges to increase the percentage of experiments conductsdper course out of the total requiredby the standard syllabus from 592 to 83S. The actual percentage at the time of completionwas 912, and by the time of the Audit mission, it had grown to 98S. Annex 13 shows this performance by institution. 4.10 The computers enabled the compilation of inventories and databases, permitting a level of scientific analysis hitherto unavailable to Chinese scientists. There was also evidencethat they were increasingly in use to assist management infomation systems (MIS) for project institutions. Audiovisual equipment enabled colleges to produce teachingaids which had proven invaluable in the effort to raise educational quality."/ Scientific equipment had encouraged research breakthroughs, many of such significance as to garner nationalawards and international acclaim. The publicationof researchfindings far exceededexpectations. In many cases, discoveriesled directly to economic benefits for residents of a given region or to conservation of valuable resources. In one notable instance, remote sensing equipment permitted the discovery,monitoring and ultimate containaentof an immense forest fire in the northern regions of the country, all of which would not have been possible without the equipment provided by the Credit. 4.11 The quality of curricula and programs was generally improved along agreed lines. Shortfalls were seen in areas where there was little Borrower interest from the outset. Targets were exceeded for the number of postgraduate degree programs and agriculturaleducation/extension programs to be established and for the enrollments in agricultural economics and management courses (Annex 12). It was not known whether or to what degree farming systems courses had been introduced, as this wAs never monitored. 4.12 Attempts to reorient curricula and to delay student specialization until the postgrad .ate level were partially successful. Experience with university programs abroad and the findings of tracer studies convinced many L21 Requiring fellows to signa contract with theirsponsoring Institutionswhichbindsthem to a five year period of service following completion of theirtraining andwhich is "guaranteed" by the family of the recipient is an arrangement which has worked moderately well in other Asian countries, notably Thailand and Malaysia. W Although the Audit was shown plenty of evidence that the audiovisual equipment was being used to produce teaching aide, it should be noted that these aspects of improving educational quality have not yet been monitored in any systematic way.  - 26 - university officials that the inadequate relationsLip between the education provided and skills needed could be improvedthrough a less rigid undergraduate system. Accordingly,some universities changedtheir programsto delay selection of undergraduatemajor until the third year. 4.13 There is strong evidence of institutional expansion over the implementationperiod. The establishmentof new courses apparently was not offset by the elimination of older and underutilized ones. For the eleven institutions,the total number of specializationsincreased from 122 in 1981 to 188 in 1990,while the number of departmentsrose from 69 to 100. Annex 14 shows this overall growth by institution concerned. The proposed consolidationof undergraduatespecializations with fewer than 100 students did not occur to any notable exteat and was not monitored (havingbeen excluded as an indicator at an early stage). It appeared to the Audit mission that the Project Commissionhad not been active in coordinatingequipment procurementwith rationalizationof universitycourses or researchpriorities (see paras. 4.40-4.41). 4.14 ExpandingEnrollme.t and ResearchCanacity. This objectivewas fully achieved for both educational and research institutions (Annex 12). Research capacity was greatly expanded, the most noteworthy example being the establishmentof CNRRI. The percentageof staff publishingin various research journals also exceeded expectationsby a wide margin, and the Audit mission was told about a variety of important research breakthroughsthat staff felt were directly attributableto project assistance. 4.15 At project completion,undergraduate enrollmentand output had reached 1231 and 127Z of the targets,respectively, while postgraduateenrollmentwas an even greater 144% of the target. Over one-quarter of the student body was female, as had been intended. I In 1987, undergraduateenrollment at project assisted tertiary institutions was 28,992, or about one-fourth of all agriculturaluniversityenrollmentin the country. By the 1989/1990 school year when the Audit missionwas in the field, it had reached 30,757, an overall growth of 681 in less than a decade. Postgraduate enrollmentwas even more impressive, growing from 347 in 1980/81 to 2088 in 1989;90,a six-fold increase (see Annex 15). 4.16 Despite provision of state-of-the-art equipment and training for its staff, there was concern that CNRRI was not yet providing the leadershipin the area of rice research that had been hoped for at Appraisal. While some of the problem could be attributedto the newness of the institution,there was evidence that deeper issues would remain to hamper its effectiveness. For one thing, there was considerableinstitutional rivalry and territorialitywhich apparenrly had not diminishedin the ex post phase. The information clearinghouse function that CNRRI was to perform remained somewhat weak and, although CNRRI had a 241 by entrance determined was automatically intouniversity The PCR notedthat acceptance examination and thatif targets scores, policies vewoto be maintained, forfemaleenrollment wouldneed to changeto reflectthesepriorities(PCRpara.5.13). The Auditconcurswith thisobservation.  - 27 - variety thesehad not becomeseminal of publications, vehicles for dissemination of research findings to the broader community. Another problem was the reluctance to work in concert of researchers with each otherand to undertakea multidisciplinary,integratedresearchteam approach. The fragmentation of researcheffortswas not only wastefulof research resources,both human and physical,but it also delayed the productionand promulgation of research findings. 4.17 Imarovina ResourceOrganization andManstement. In its finalformthis objective as IDA wouldhave liked. It was a modeststep was not as comprehensive towardefficiency and rationalization,and indicators of progress were limited to libraryaccessand staffand spaceutilization.Achievements were partial. Librariesstayed openmorehourseachweek andmaterials becameeasierto obtain, althoughnot to the extent envisioned at Appraisal(see Annex 12). Library utillzationvaried greatlyamonginstitutions visitedby the Audit missionand seemedto be dependentuponthe energy,dedication and trainingof library staff. 4.18 One of the most importantlibraries assisted underthe project was the Information Center of the ChineseAcademyof Agricultural Sciences. The SAR anticipated that this Centerwould become the clearinghouse for scientific information in the agricultural sciences. Although the capacity of the Center was undoubtedly expandedunderthe project(facilitating, inter alia publication of materials), there is littleevidence that the center had enough financial support to subscribeto all the necessary journals, much less become the informational hub thatproject planners desired. At the time of the Audit it Was providing neitherthe leadership nor the services neededby the system,in part becausethe levelof funding was insufficient for anything other than minimal upgrading, and in part because of resistance of the compartmentalization and territoriality agricultural research system. As it was not tergeted for further assistance under the SecondAgricultural ResearchProject,an opportunity to build on the slenderbeginning made in the project under Audit was lost. 4.19 With regard to teacher:student ratios, Project Completion Reports prepared by the Bank and the Borrower reported an overallincrease from 1:3.6 to 1s4.9,whichapproximated the goal of 1:5 set at Appraisal.Data collected from the ProjectOffice plus a spot check of four colleges visited by the Audit mission indicated far lessimprovament, however. Althoughthreeinstitutions met or exceeded the 1:5 target, an equalnumber were stillbelow 1:3 and the average for all institutions was 1:4.12--suggesting minimalimprovement over the decade (seeAnnex 16). 4.20 of spaceutilization The percentage was expected to increasefrom 402 to over60Z. The CompletionReport prepared by the Borrower,uponwhich the IDA PCR was prepared,stated that thiL target was achieved, but without further elaboration.As the SAR did not give the numberof hours in serviceper week, however,it is difficultto see how thisconclusion was reached. 4.21 Equipmentand spaceutilizationdatafor somefacilities, presentedin reports, the completion is as reproduced Annex 17. If the basis for comparison is a 54-hourweek, overallutilization among the variouskinds of facilities  - 28 - variedfrom72Z for audio-visual labsto over1002for the computer rooms,indeed exceeding the 60S target. This may not be the fullpicture, however. Recent stuties and articles have indicatedthat facilities utilization amongtertiary institutions remainsa major concernin China.U' One surveyundertaken by IDA foundthat laboratory and classroomutilization occasionally fell as low as 621 and 502, respectively, indicatingconsiderableinefficiencywithin the system, if not withinprojectinstitutions per ge. 4.22 Facilitiesutilizationissues are complex, involvingnotions of optimality and appropriateness, and a thoroughanalysis was wellbeyondthe scope of the Audit. The missionnoted that,although usagevaried,in no casewere laboratories used for teachingmore than 21 hoursper week,which was low. In fact,specializedicentral labswereusedprimarily for research,and centrallabs were used even less for teachingthan for "publicservice."While this latter findin8 was not surprising (since central labs housed the most expensive and sophisticatedequipment--thatleastsuitedto undergraduatecoursework and most likely to be expensiveto repair),it did underscoreissues of equipment relevanceto undergraduateprograms,echoinga concernexpressed at Appraisal. Similar concernshad been raised in the course of auditingthe University DevelopmentProject.3)"An internationaladvisorypanelevaluating thatproject had cautionedagainstautomaticallyequating certainlevelsof utilizationwith appropriateand adequate use, since the use of expensivestate-of-the-art equipmentfor mundaneteaching purposesor for industrial R&D work (rather than for research)might be sub-optimal. 4.23 IMpactof the Research andManower Studies. The impactof the studies has beenmixed. On the one hand theygenerated importantinformation aboutand insightsinto the statusand weaknesses of agriculturaleducation and research systems--andcontributed to the preparationof the follow-onprojects. On the other hand, there has been little follow-up(and none outside the project context)and the periodic reviewof manpower and research needs have not been institutionalizedby the Borrower. 4.24 The researchstudywas usefulin helpingto identifyprioritycommodity areas and researchmanpowerneeds and in preparingthe SecondAgricultural ResearchProject. It also demonstratedthe extremecompartmentalizationin the provisionof agriculturalservices (includingresearch)and the weaknessin the liAkagesbetween variousservice providers.The studynotedthat therewere no well-definedlinks betweenthe agricultural researchstructure and colleges/ universitiesof agricultureasidefrom the personal contacts, precedentand ad .M arrangementsfor jointwork on specific projectsat the provinciallevel. Moreover,separateagencles with specificfunctions(plantprotection, seed 21 See, forexample, MinWeifang, Education fligher Finance in Chinat Current Constraintsand Strateglec for1990..' in Hiaher Ed,cation forthcoming Volume 19, No. 1; and WorldBank, ChinaHanaeement andFinanceofHigherEducation, (Report No. 5912-CHA, May 15 1986) Annex all see PPARChinaUnivereitL Devetoument Proiect, oo cit, paras.25-26.  - 29 - testing,etc)provided within theirmandateto clientele all services in a given area. This arrangement led to considerable overlap in some regions and inadequatecoveragein others. 4.25 The SecondAgriculturalResearchProjectidentifiedthe rationalization of the servicestructureand the strengtheningof linkagesas two key elements in improving of research. the effectiveness It recommendedreplacingthe current systemwith location-specific extensionstations which could combineseveral functions and providedassistance for a pilot programof ten such stations. These "County Agro-TechnicalExtensionCenters" or CATEC8, would conduct a very appliedtype of research with a primary focus on demonstrationand testing. Responsibilityfor maintaining linkagesto both farmersand the more formal researchcommunityand for insuringa two-way wouldrestwith flowof information varioustechnical advisory and extension committeesin the CATECs. Although therewas some initialreluctance to disturbexisting the CATEC arrangements, approachappearedto be generating considerablebenefitsand takinghold in severallocations, including thoseoutsidethe pilotprojectareas. 4.26 Althoughit was usefulin identifying areas for furtherimprovement, the practice sucha study of undertaking was not institutionalized or nationally evenreplicated the provinces. throughout To the knowledgeof theAuditmission, the original study has not been updated. Thus, despite its apparent importance to the futuredirectionof agricultural the studydid not lead to an research, integratedsystemof agriculturalresearch. 4.27 As noted, at the time the projectwas prepared,there were many unknownsregardingagriculturalmanpower, interalia,the size of the stockof manpower, of training the relationship to employmentopportunities,the ability institutions of training to respondto shiftingmanpowerneeds,and the direction futureneedsmighttake. The project afforded opportunity an important to both fill in the knowledgeand test how well institutional output was matching manpower needs in a given province. Using sampling and survey techniques,the team from NanjingAgricultural Universitycollected data on several employment categories of trainedagricultural manpowerin Jiangsuprovince and testeda variety of standardtechniques for estimatingfuture needs. The team also obtainedinformation on the trainingcapacityof variousschoolsand research institutes in the area. 4.28 The experience of undertakingthe manpowerresearch was valuable from a numberof perspectives.In the firstplace,it demonstrated how systematic collection and study of specific information regarding the number, characteristicsand possible futureevolution of agriculturalmanpower couldbe used to derive implications for the planning of agricultural education. Secondly,it overturnedmanyassumptions about manpowerplanningand demonstrated that the choiceof methodology for estimating futurepersonnel needs was not alwaysself-evident. The teamcame to recognize that standardcoefficients for allocatingagricultural technical personnel were not a reliable yardstick for projections.By the completion of the study,the teamwas no longeradvocating a singleuniformstandard (suchas personnelper 10,000farmfamilies or area of  - 30 - of the county conditions basedon prevailing arableland)but ratheran approach or localeunder consideration. 4.29 Thirdly, it produced new and sometimescontroversialinsights regarding the education and utilization of agricultural technical personnel.For example, the team discovered that the majority of agriculturaltechnical personnel were in the 45-60 age range,which meant that the entire stockwould have to be replaced by the year 2000 if currentstaffing patterns were to be maintained. It also discovered that collegeeducated and secondaryeducated personnel were being deployed In a ratio of approximately one to one, which suggested inefficient utilization of both categoriee of staff. Finally,it uncovered several shortcomings in both the quality and format of existing training programs. The introduction of the peasants' responsibility system had dramatically alteredthe pattern of agricultural productionin the province,but the training institutions had not always respond adequatelyto thesenew demands. 4.30 IDA,whichhad been closelyinvolved in setting up the manpower study and monitoring its progress, had two broadpurposes in mind: (i) strengthening the quality of manpower analysis in China, and (ii) providingsufficient information to justifythe preparation of a follow-o-.project. Whilesucceeding fully in the secondobjective, the study,in the view of the Audit,had little long term impact on the qualityof agricultural manpoweranalysisin China. During a mid-projectassessment,IDA congratulated the Borrower on its achievements in collecting and analyzing baseline datafromJiangsu province and suggested thatthiswas an excellent pointof departure for further research into the effectsof education on farmersand training of agricultural personnel on farmer productivity and the efficiencyof farmoperations. In early 1984,as the studynearedcompletion and the preparation of the secondagricultural education project got underway, IDA soughtto extendthe analysis at the provincial level as well as initiate similarstudies on a countrywide basis. Although declining further IDA assistancefor Jiangsu province, the Borrower accepted six years of specialist assistance projectto extendthe model developed underthe follow-on there to additionalprovinces. 4.31 The Audit interviewed Borrower officials (including original members of the studyteamat NanjingAgricultural University) to see what the follow-up to the pilot study had been. Although admittingthe study had provided invaluable insights into desirable changesin degreeprograms and curricula as well as intofutureagricultural manpower noeds, there apparently was no further research or evenupdating of studyfindings.Staffwho had participated in the original studylamented the lackof institutionalization of the process, since to be reallyusefulthe data needed periodic and systematic updating. Without this, staff feared that the expertisedevelopedduring the project would eventually be lost,alongwith the capacity to buildupon (muchlessextend) past achievements in manpoweranalysis. The Auditmission was unable to ascertain why an admittedly useful practice had not been continued, but hypothesized that it was because both the information and the process had generated opposition from certain quarters. Perhaps information generatedregarding(i) the external inefficiency of the agricultural tertiary institutions and (ii) the  - 31 - ineffectiveness of currentmanpowerforecasting toolsand laborallocation models provedtoo threateningto entrenchedinterest. B. DeveloDment of the Agricultural Sector.1980-1990 4.32 As notedearlier,Chinaintroduced basiceconomic reform.in 1979which set the stagefor futuredevelopment. A numberof boldmeasures were adopted to restructure and liberalize the rural *conomy,including(i) dismantling the communes and shiftingproduction responsibility to the household; (ii)rapidly monetizing and commercializingruraleconomic activities,(iii)increasing farm prices, (iv) reintroducing free markets, and (v) improvingpublic sector marketing and distribution networks. Underthe productionresponsibility system, farmers were givenmore autonomy in choosingcropping patterns and diversifying activities.The results were dramatic.Production increased by over 101 p.a., substantially greaterthan the 61 growthexperienced at the end of the previous decade. Both incomesand consumption rose markedly. In nominalterms, per capitaincomesof farmersin 1983were 2.3 timeswhat they had been in 1979. 4.33 Despitea reduction in area sown,grainoutputsteadily increasedto a peak level of 407 milliontons in 1984 (341 greaterthan in 1978),before declining in thewake of new reforms whichreplaced compulsory procurementquotas with voluntary contracts,adjusted procurement pricesand greatlyenlarged the role of the market. Thesemeasures, whichpermitted farmers to shiftproduction intohigher-value livestock and cashcrops,resulted in a temporarydropin grain production beforeeventually rebounding towardthe end of the decade. Although agriculture continued to be heavilycroporiented, thereyes a steadydecline in the shareof crop production and a concomitant increase in sideline production (activities and industriesrun by brigades and teems)and livestock production. 4.34 The fisheries and livestock sub-sectorsalsobenefitted fromthemajor policy changesin 1979. While accounting for a relatively smallsliceof the agricultural output, fisheries (at 1.51of the grossvalue)and livestock (at 141 of the grossvalue)were of growing importance. Totalfishproduction increased from 4.5 millions tons in 1980to around9.4 milliontons in 1987,mainlyas a result of the rapid growthand increasing shareof marineand freshwater fish culture over the period (from 1.4 to 4.9 million tons). Althoughcapture fisheries stillprovided a significant proportion,growthrateswere lower and were expected to actually decline as problems of overfishing and pollutionbegan to affectthe already heavilyexploited coastalend inland waters. Most of the totalfishproduction was for localconsumption whichremained comparativelylow despite production increases. Of total meatproduction, pigscontributed to 881, poultry8S and other livestock only 41. More than 902 of the pigs and an even largershare of the poultry were privately owned. Liberalization in the mid- 1980shad a massiveimpacton livestock productions the pig populationincreased 101 between1984-86, while red meat, milk and egg production roseby 181,331, and 261 duringthe same period. 4.35 Bank/IDA assistanceto the sectorexpandedrapidlyduringthe decade in supportof the Government'seffortsto increase and diversifyagricultural production. Apart from land reclamationand development,of which the North  - 32 - China Plain Project was the first, the Bank Group assisted rural credit, seeds, forestry, freshwaterfisheries,rubber and area development. Implementation of most Bank-Group financed projects was on schedule during the period, with disbursements for agricultural projects outpacing other sectors. Notable features of all projects were the high standard of project management, enthusiasticparticipation of farmers,and effectivecollaboration of Government authorities at all levels. 4.36 The North China Plain Project demonstratedall of these features, as well as economic benefits well exceeding those anticipated at Appraisal (562 versus 302). Project objectiveswere fully achieved. Overall croppingintensity increased from 138Z to 163Z, yields of all crops were two to three times pre- project estimates, and total production increased by 166S. Other positive features of the project includedsoil and water studieswhich resulted in cost- saving refinements in project design, indirect benefits resulting from the promotion of small-scale rural enterprises (agro-processing facilities, paper mills, livestock and fisheries enterprises, etc.), and experience in land improvement and the large-scalepromotion of technology. Although a competent institutionalframeworkcapableof promotingdevelopmentin areas reclaimedfrom salinity and waterloggingwas also in place, it was not fully effective at the time the project was completed. The Audit of the project noted that sustainabilitv of nrolect benefitswas linked not only to systematicoperations and maintenance of the facilities Drovided. but also to the ability of the Government (in this case. provincialauthorities) to meet increasinademand for agriculturaIinputs and services (emphasis added). 4.37 The rapid growth of the rural economy during the decade of the 19808 led to an escalatingdemand for the training, researchand outreach services of project institutions. It was apparent that institutionsvisited by the Audit Mission often had developed close linkages to local farmers, fishermen and businessmen. Universityand researchstaff cited numerousexamplesof successful cooperationin directlyraisingyields and output. One regionaluniversity,for example,structuredits researchand outreachactivitiesto promote agricultural productionin several counties in the province,which brought faculty into close contactwith the problems of average farmers. Another university,the only one to provide trainingin marine captureactivitiesin China, was collaborating with the local fishing industry to finance and operate university trainingvessels. A research institute,after extensively surveyingthe resourcesof the lake which was its focus, made a number of proposals for drastically altering the traditional capture methods of local fishermen. Although accepted with considerable reservation, the alternativeswere tried and ultimately proved extremely profitable for local fishermen. Not only did yearly yields increase, but income from other activities undertaken during slack seasons eventually exceeded that from traditionalfishing activities. C. Develogment of Institutionsand Slstems 4.38 IDA sought a basis for addressing potentially far-reaching organizationalissues, but the Borrower preferred to focus on strengtheningthe teaching and research functions of selected institutions,and this was the  - 33 - eventual project scope. At the time of the Audit there was little doubt that capacitiesat the project institutions had improvedalong the lines envisaged at Appraisal, along with their stature in the scientificcommunity. The Audit saw many cases where colleges had been upgraded to full universities, or where institutionshad taken on additionalresponsibilities or broader mandates as a result of their enhanced status. For example,the Lake Taihu ExperimentalBssee, which was initiallya small local researchstation, grew into a national center for freshwaterfish farmingwhich also served as a UNDP trainingcenter for the Asia region. 4.39 Although there is little doubt that the impact or the development of individualproject institutionswas significant,there is little evidence that the basic systems of which project institutionsformed a part were similarly strengthened. There were no explicit attempts to formally strengthen collaborativelinkagesamong institutions or the professionalassociationsamong scientists. There was no attention to reducing the fragmentationof research efforts. Contrary to one of the original project objectives, no unified or integrated system for agriculturalresearchwas established. 4.40 Although a Project Cominssionwas set up to oversee technical aspects of the project, it appears that these panels were not 'etainedafter project completion, nor have their former members coalesced to provide continued professional guidance and leadership. Particularlyin a circumstanceof rapid growth, insiderswith knowledge of capacity and quality must take a major role in establishing academic standards, guiding the shape of new programs, and lobbying for the financing necessary to maintain them. 4.41 While the agricultural colleges under the project grew in size and stature, in most cases exceedingproject expectations, their ability to generate sufficient resources and allocate them efficiently remained weak and their linkages to each other remained ad hoc and occasionallytenuous. Furthermore, recent evidencesuggeststhat this project--and others assistinghigher education in China--may have inadvertentlycontributed to the proliferation of higher education institutions. Even though total expenditures on the sub-sector increased over five times between 1978 and 1988, indicating the substantial commitment of the Government to tertiary education, it now seems that the system has expanded too rapidly and the increase in state allocationshas not risen to meet the growth of recurrentcosts. Elementsof the problem are the overly rapid expansion of institutionsand programs (and resulting diseconomiesof scale), high inflation (and concomitant decline in purchasing power of colleges and universities),and the internal inefficiencies of the institutions themselves. D. Sustainabilitv 4.42 An analytical approach measuring the sustainability of education projects in the post-completionperiod has been developed and tested by OED. This approach encompasses two sets of variables: five indicators of sustainability(input,efficiency,output,qualitativeand spin-off)and factors (both internal and external to the project) which determine the level of  - 34 - sustainability over the longer term.U' Although a detailed analysis of sustainability is well beyond the scope of the Audit, an interim assessment can be made using information available in the imediate ex post period. 4.43 Input indicators(such as physical facilities, teachersand staff, and materialsand equipment)were being maintainedat an acceptablelevel at the time of the Audit visit. While some of the input trends appeared favorable (i.e., a steady stream of fellows returning from abroad every year and institutionalized maintenance practices at the university and institute level), there Was also cause for concern, chiefly the return of fellows to their posts and the need to finance non-personnel instructionalcosts and maintenance. 4.44 The Audit mission was impressed with the state of repair of the equipmentand the attentionto maintenancegiven by project institutions.During implementation, an information recordingsystem for each major piece of equipment had been established,and these log books were made freely availableto the Audit mission. Record keeping was generallymeticulous. Depending on the nature of the equipment and the manner in which it was used, general operations and maintenance (O&M) had been arranged in several ways. For sets of commonly or widely used equipment (such as computers,electronmicroscopes,or audio-visual, special O&M units headed by an experienced faculty member and staffed with trained technicianswere formed. Where instruments performedspecificoperations needed by several departments (such as gas/liquidchromatographers, amino acid analyzers,and spectrophotometers), units formed around the particularfunction (such as chemical analysis). Where equipmentwas used by a single department, a designated staff member from that unit took charge. The Audit found that, while adherenceto such monitoringproceduresvaried, it was generallytakenvery seriously and systematically. The Audit mission also noted that the responsibilities of O&M units sometimes extended beyond responding to requests for repairs into managing and monitoring equipment utilization, including the trainingand certification of users and making spot checks to ensure appropriate utilization. Not surprisingly,in departments where log books were assiduously maintained and laboratorymanagementunits had comprehensiveresponsibilities, the equipment was in the best state of repair. 4.45 Although maintenance capacity had been institutionalized to a considerable degree, equipment maintenance was probably the single greatest concern of college and researchstaff interviewed by the Audit mission. Elements of the problem includedimport tax regulations, local repair capacity,and--most importantly--apersistent shortage of financing for spares and consumables. Officials noted that, while instrumentsfor teachingand researchwere free of tax within two years of entering the country, they subsequentlybecame dutiable items, along with their spare parts and consumables. Import limitationsfurther res.,ictedthe availabilityof some items. Getting the equipmentrepairedraised L7/ The Sustainabilityof InvestmentPro1ectsin Education (OED Report No. 9225, dated December 28, 1990) three published case studies of education projects in Indonesia (OED Report No. 7767),Malavi (OED Report No. 7919),andColombia (OED Report No. 7926). A descriptionof the analytical framwvork is outlined In each of these reports, and appears as Chapter 4 in Report No. 9225.  - 35 - additional problems. The more complex pieces of equipment had to be sent to central repair stations in Beijing and Shanghai that had been organized by suppliersfor that purpooe. Satisfaction with this system varied, but seemed to be on the wane among officials interviewed by the Audit mission. Long turn around times (of one to two years) and high costs were indicated,along with the desire among the Chinese to become more self sufficient in these areas. 4.46 IDA staff and Borrower officials continued to discuss repair and maintenance issues into the post-completionphase and in the context of the follow-onproject. One suggestionunder discussionbetween the Borrowerand IDA at the time of the Audit visit was the possibilityof establishinga consultancy center for servicingequipmentand traininglocal techniciansin maintenanceand repair. Project staff interviewedby the mission favored this idea because it would develop Chinese capacity and diminish relianceon foreign suppliers. The institutional framework(whethercentralized or decentralized,public or private) and the long term financingarrangements (whethersubsidizedor self-financing), needed to be explored further with the Government. Nevertheless, the Audit agreed with those interviewedthat something needed to be done as a matter of urgency. At a minimum, all future projects containing sophisticatedequipment should include a substantialallocation for spares and service contracts. 4.47 The most severe constraintwas financing. Officials estimated that about 12-15X of the originalpurchaseprice should have been allocatedfor repair and maintenance, rather than the 5-10 currently allocated. In fact, budget allocationsand structureshad changed very little in the wake of the project. Income from contract work for other entitieswas not sufficientto make up the difference. 4.48 The Audit noted that inadequate financing for non-personnel instructionalcosts was emerging as a major constraint in the higher education system. Evidence has emerged both within the context of specific project experience and sub-sectoral analysis by Chinese scholars.La/ Recurrent financingwas identifiedas an issue in the Audit of the UniversityDevelopment Project (para. 34), it has been identifiedas an issue in this project, and also began to emerge as a problem during the implementationof the Polytechnic and TelevisionUniversityProject (Cr. 1411-CHA,approved9/83). Reoponseshave been ad hoc. In the case of the project under Audit, IDA allowed savings from the Credit to cover anticipatedspare parts needs. Similarly,rather than canceling the SDR 3.0 million which was left as unused proceeds at the end of the implementation period of Cr. 1411, the Board approved the creation of an equipment maintenance account and an additional disbursement category. But these actions,however well intentioned have been mere palliatives, and have not addressed the broader context or provided a solution for the longer term. 4.49 The Audit feels that in the case of these university development project, preparation and appraisalwere technicallyweak from the standpointof iMnWeifan8, "Hisher Education Fluance in China: Current Constraints and Strategies for the 19908,a op, cit.  - 36 - estimating the real costs of acquiring and maintaining the equipment and analyzing the financingstructureof the higher education system. Well over half a billion dollars was to be investedover the course of several projects, and a matter such as maintenancemust be seen in the contest of a rapidly increasing stock of plant to be maintained. The human capital and foreign exchange implicationsattendantupon acquiringexpensiveand sophisticated equipmentwere glossed over by IDA and addressed insufficiently both from the perspectiveof the recurrent cost analysis and the risks of undertaking the project and its companions. Along with addressing appropriateness and utilization, IDA economistsshould have developeda better methodologyfor computingthe recurrent cost implicationsof a project, such as the one under Audit, where over 70Z of the Credit went for equipmentpurchased abroad. 4.50 Several efficiencymeasurements indicated that project institutions were indeed not functioningoptimally. While the passage of studentsthrough the system (or "throughput") was not a problem, inefficient teacher:student ratios and utilizationrates were never effectivelyaddressedand remained issues after completion. Programming decisions that allowed expansion without concomitant eliminationor consolidation of underenrolled programs indicatedanother area of concern. 4.51 Output indicators for this project were linked to the teaching, research and service functions of the institutionsconcerned.L9JAt the time of Audit, achievementsin these three categorieswere satisfactory. Enrollment and output at both the undergraduateand postgraduatelevels continued to climb in the period following completion, as did the amount of research undertaken. Institutionstook their service role quite seriously,as indicatedby Annex 17. 4.52 The Audit noted that the time institutions devoted to "publicservice" was in fact a form of contract work--frequentlyof a research and development nature--whichinstitutions were paid to undertakeon behalf of externalagencies. Fees charged helped to defray the operating costs of the equipment used. The idea that public institutionsshould provide services (above and beyond their designated functions), recover costs, and become self-financing were important features of the Chinese institutional landscape. It seemed to the Audit mission that this variation of the "responsibility system"was a strong indicatorof the sustainability of project institutions. It encouraged self-reliance and initiative and was a positive and innovativestep toward defraying operational costs and keeping institutionsrelevant by placing them in a "problem solving" response mode. In the final analysis,however, institutionsneeded to balance concerns for social and economic relevance and cost recovery (or even profitability)against their primary functions of teaching and research. 4.53 Qualitativeindicatore(or trends in the qualitativeaspectsof output) encompassed issues of institutionalrelevance and flexibility. Of particular "11 Institutional service takes a varietyof forms, uponthe "message" and the "client:." depending It can be in the form of dissemination to colleagues,as outreach or extension to the community, or consultation to policymakingfora,such as the government.  - 37 - importancefor this project were the fit between curricula and manpower needs, or research to agriculturalneeds, and the ability of institutionsto adapt to new information and changing circumstances. In the immediate ex post period, there was little apparentproblem of a qualitativenature. On the contrary, the significant qualitative gains for both agricultural manpower and research promptedthe Borrowerto employ an agriculturalallegoryin its CompletionReport and note that the investmenthad been "just like rain after a long dry season." The continuinggrowth of the agriculturaleconomy and researchactivitiesand the apparentrapid absorptionof graduatesinto this dynamic sector auguredwell for project institutions. There were also indications of some institutional flexibility and adaptability--asseen in the changes to the curricula and programming resulting from study tours and the findings of project-financed tracer studies. 4.54 Nevertheless, the Audit queried China's ability to retain the qualitative gains in the longer term given the inflexibility of resource organizationand allocationsystems. For higher education the main constraint was the persistenceof manpower forecastingae the chief tool for planning levels and composition of expenditures.'°/ The unresponsivenessand rigidity inherent in manpower forecasting was further enhanced by the state-directed labor allocation system and China's penchant for excessive specialization at the undergraduate level. Overspecialization exacerbated the situation because graduates from such courses of study were ill-preparedfor the introduction of new technologies or for the changing job requirementsthat always accompany a dynamic and developingeconomy. Thus, it would appear that the competitiveness and allocativeefficienciesengenderedby the application of the "responsibility system" to individualinstitutionshad not reached education and labor markets. 4.55 The most important spin-off indicator was the establishment and institutionalizationof the language training initiated under the project. Although the overall investmentwas miniMal, significanttraining capacitywas establishedin an area not only crucial to project successbut also important for reducingChina's historicisolationfrom the international community. The payoff from this small investment has been considerable and the fact that the two language trainingcenters are continuingin the post-completion phase indicates strong prospects for their oustainability. ig/ Projecting manpower requirements based either on estimates of futureneeds providedby employers or on complex planning models have proven problematic and inaccurate in most countries. Employer-bosed forecasts cannot be aggregated into a forecast for the whole economy. Complex manpower planntng methods--whlch attempt to calculate labor requirements (by occupation, sector and industry) based upon output and productivity forecasts, and to convert them into an educational structure through estimates of the level of formal education required for each occapation--have been no more successful. While the weaknesses of manpower forecastingare videly acknowledged, it ts still videly practiced.  - 38 - V. FINDINGSAND LESSONS 5.01 As a free-standingoperation,this was a highly successfulproject. It benefitted from a good understanding of the problems needing attention and appropriate project scope. The key indicators and targets set by project plannerswere realisticand attainableand generallycloselymonitored. Although the institutionaland geographicscope of the project was broad, the Borrower's executing agencies and IDA worked in close collaborationto insure effective implementation and achievement of project objectives. The experiment of combiningagriculturalhigher educationand researchinstitutions under a single operation, while somewhat unorthodox by IDA standards, demonstrated that two related sectors can be effectivelycombined and supervised. In fact, whatever weak linkages existed between the two types of institutions were probably strengthenedas a result of the project. 5.02 The three major shortcomings in agricultural higher education and research (namely,capacity, quality,management)were all addressed to varying degrees in the project. There have been significantgains in the quantity and quality of output of both research and training institutionsas a result of the project, and many project institutionshave gained internationalreputations. The project investmentwas crucial to breaking the isolation of the previous decades and to bringing Chinese agriculturalscientistsinto contact with their colleagues from around the world. This was no small accomplishment. Although some of the initial assumptions used to justify the investmentwere based on methodologies since discredited (chiefly manpower forecasting and standard allocations and staffing ratios for the agriculturalsector), the needs proved to be so great, the basis so minimal, and the growth of the agriculturaleconomy so spectacularas to provide ample justification for the investmentin hindsight. 5.03 Some of the most useful lessonsto emerge from this project concern the selection of inputs appropriate to the desired objective and the effective monitoring of those inputs. Four illustrationsare provided. The first case concernslanguagetraining. Those preparingthe projectrealizedthat successful execution of the overseas study component,upon which the objectiveof upgrading staff quality rested, hinged upon ensuring adequate language skills of participant fellows. The decisionto provide not only technicalassistance,but also facilities and equipment to support language training was a wise one--it institutionalizedtraining capacity, and paid considerable dividends in the context of this project and its successor. 5.04 The actual overseas training experience met with mixed success, although not because of fellows' languageproblems. Overseas fellowshipswere an appropriate input to the objective of staff upgrading. In terms of the numbers of beneficiariesinvolved, it exceeded expectationsby a wide margin. However, the impact of this upgradingwas diminishedfor project institutions by not have been the case had the delayed return of the fellows. This perhapswou'ld the Government been less anxious to encourage fellows to pursue degrees beyond the agreed study financedunder the project. The Audit feels that maintaining  - 39 - th. assistanceroleand encouragingfellowsto returnfor a few yearsof earvice between the Masters and Doctoratedegreeswould allow the Borrower,project institutions, and scholarsalike to capturethe maximumbenefitsof overseas study. 5.05 In another instance,the project sought to improve Institutional management practices (consolidateoverspecialized universityprograms ard improve administration) by exposing projectofficials to foreignspecialists andoverseas studytours. The projectneverspecified how theseinputs were to achievethese goals--amounting to fundamental institutional reform in some cases--orhow performance iouldbe assessed. No specific termsof reference were identified for the consultants and no institutional actionplans (encompassing intended changes to administrative practices) were put forth. NeitherIDA nor the P0 was actively involved in overseeing the implementationof the specialist assistance, and it was considerably underutilized. There is littleevidencethat project institutions themselves--the intendedbeneficiaries--had much interest in these activities.The Audit questions whetherspecialists and studytours can have much impact in achieving fundamental institutional reform under the best of circumstances. Although undoubtedly usefulfor the individualswho participated, the vague application of theseinputsin this projectdid littleto restructure the institutions. 5.06 Finally, themanpower and researchstudies were stand-alone inputsand not linkedto the achievement of any broaderobjective.Therewas no official followup to the studies, much lessevidence that the Borrower had moved toward a unifiedsystemof agricultural research,a more efficient resource allocation model for agricultural colleges and universities, or a more flexible systemof laborallocation for agriculturalmanpower.The mainproblem, in the viewof the Audit,was that the institutional arrangement to profitfromthe findings of the studies did not existand have not been created. Recentreviews have confirmed thatBank Grouplendingfor research and studycomponents in education projects needs improvement.1 1 Among the trenchantobservations from these reviews relevant to the projectunderAudit includethe following: (a) Studiesare more likelyto be completedwhen they are included withinthe Loan/CreditAgreements(as the researchand manpower studywere). (b) Study findingsare inadequately disseminated. Studies are seldom available to audienceswider than their original sponsors,and sometimes not even available to them. (c) Studiesare frequently included reasons, for political such as incountry developing discussions on divisive issuesor resolving policynegotiationdeadlock. 2_/1 Tan, J.P., "ResearchComponentsin World Bank EducationProjects,"1982 (WorldBank Education Department); and Lockheed, Marlaine E. and Rodd, Alastair G., "World Bank Lending for Education Research, 1982-89,"January 1991, (PRE Working Paper No. 583).  - 40 - 5.07 Although IDA initially favored a strong emphasis on improving organizationalsystems and resource allocationpatterns and sought to have the two studies carried out in this context, the Borrower was more interested in restoring, expanding and improving the teaching and research functions at the eighteen selected institutions,and the project eventuallytook this shape and retained this focus. While this may have been an acceptable strategy for the first project in assisting agriculturaleducation and research, this approach seems to have had some disadvantagesin the longer term- 1 5.08 Firstly, IDA did not keep pressureon the Borrowerto address internal efficiency issues and concerted attention was not sustained. In consequence, many entrenched internal inefficienciesidentified during project preparation remained at project completion. Among the most troublesome were high teacher:student ratios and questionable utilization patterns for project facilities. There was also a strong indication of that, while colleges and universitieshad added new courses, they had not taken sufficientmeasures to reduce or consolidateundersubscribedones. 5.09 Secondly,by divorcing the eleven agriculturalcolleges and the seven research institutes from the broader context of system development, IDA inadvertently reinforcedsome of the existingproblemsand added to others. The selective focus on individual institutions without parallel measures to strengthen the research system, for example, did not help China move toward an integrated approach to agricultural research, and probably exacerbated the observed tendency for institutionsto work at cross-purposes. 5.10 In a similar vein, IDA arguably contributed to the overly rapid expansion of higher education. Bank Group assistance to higher education in China has been substantialand has taken place within the context of massive sub- sectoralgrowth. There have been six higher educationprojects, for which loans and credits worth nearly US$700.0million equivalentwere approved in less than a decade. This is certainly an unprecedentedinvestmentin tertiary education over such a short span of time, even for a country with the absorptivecapacity and substantial needs of China. The Audit found little evidence that the recurrent costs of this investment was calculated with an eye to either the overall growth of the sub-sector (and demands from non-project institutions)or the adequacy of university budgets for meeting recurrent costs of project investments. Furthermore,by incrementallyassisting individual institutions without apparent reference to the overall system, IDA may have exacerbatedthe very diseconomiesof scale it was allegedly trying to reduce. "Rationalizing" higher educationthrough the restructuring and consolidationof institutions and programsalways presents enormousdifficulties. In China these are amplifiedby the large number of bodies at the various levels of governmentresponsible for 321 This is not to implythat focusing limited resources on selected institutions in order to promotethemas *centers of excellence"(or "key"or "flagship"Institutions)is thewrong approach, but ratherthat it must be guidedby an understanding of how the networkof lstitutions will ultimately regulate, finance, and governitself.  - 41 - individualinstitutions. Nevertheless,if the long term viability of the system is not to suffer, this nettle must be grasped. 5.11 Thirdly, the need to create a context for fosteringcontinuing intro- Institutional linkages was ignored. Opportunities to promote strong informational networks (such as could have occurred through the CAAS Informetion Center) or to formalize quality control mandates (as could have happened if the ProjectCormrissionhad retainedsome ex post oversightfunction)were not availed in the project. In a consequence,institutions continuedto functionin official isolation from each other rather than as collaborating partners in agricultural development. If rationalizationis going to happen, the university community, through its various professionalassociations,must take an active part. 5.12 Finally, the need to remove vestiges of the command economy approach from allocative practices (both within labor markets and to higher education budgets) was not squarely addressed. The manpower and tracer studies demonstratedthe difficulty of ensuring a good fit between college/university output and labor market needs, and thus shed considerable light on the disadvantagesof continuing such practices in a rapidly growing economy. But although acknowledgedto be highly useful, this type of research has not been extended, much less institutionalized. While China is still in a position to absorb and effectively utilize college graduates whatever their particular training, it is undoubtedly true that costs accruing to external inefficiency will also begin to mount as they have in other countries. 5.13 Additional findings and lessons include the following: (a) IDA should not forego supervisingcivilworks construction under projects even when IDA is not the funding source for that input (para. 3.07). (b) The elaboration of explicit project objectives and key project indicators, their incorporationinto an evaluation matrix and the regular monitoringof achievementsi4easurably facilitates ex post evaluation(paras.2.29-2.30,3.04, 3.26 and Annex 12). (c) Institutionalized operations and maintenance systems are important to the routine maintenance of project equipment but need to be complimentedby adequatebudgets. (paras.4.44-4.50). (d) Higher education institutions can usefully combine self- financing activitieswith public service, provided that there are no disincentivesor restrictionsand that institutionstake it upon themselves to keep, a good balance between these of teaching and research activitiesand their primary functilons (para. 4.52 and Annex 17).  - 43 - ANX I SOCIALIST ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN CHINAs 1949-1980 Goals. Strategies. and Achievements 1. Initial Perlod. 1949-1976. For most of the first thirty years after the revolution, China's development strategieswere driven by twin goals of industrialgrowth and poverty reductionwithin rather strictly interpreted--and after harshly applied--socialist guidelines. The Chinese approachedthese goals in two essentiallydifferentways. Poverty reduction efforts primarily focused on rural development and provision of basic social services, relied heavily on local resources and initiative,and emphasizedcost effectivenessand technical improvisation. Industrialization,on the other hand, was based on massive infusionsof centrallymobilized resources,relied on technologiesthat stemmed from Soviet designs of the 1950s, and virtually ignored economic criteria. The tension between these two approachescontributedover the years to sharp policy I oscillations, which in turn caused setbacks,if not reversals,to the development process. 2. Despite dramatic fluctuations,there was substantialprogress toward the achievementof both objectives. By the late 1970s, China's economic system was an amalgamation of a largely urban state economy characterizedby public ownership,centralization of economicdecisions,strictlyhierarchicalcontrol, and little relianceon markets or prices, and a rural commune economy of its own design where local autonomy and market forces played a greater role. Industrialization had been rapidlyachievedthroughmassive investmentsfinanced primarily through domestic savings. The share of industryin GDP rose to 401 in the late 1970s, which was similar to the average for middle-incomedeveloping countries. However, because the service sector remained comparativelysmall, agriculture still accounted for 341 of the GDP and over 701 of employment, and around 85% of the population continued to live in rural areas, featureswhich gave China a profile closer to that of low-income countries. Furthermore, because the system was so effectiveat mobilizingdomestic savings,consumption grew auch slower than income, and is estimated to have risen at an annual rate of only 1.31 between 1959-1977,barely above the average for other low-income countries.'t 3. Low per capita consumption levels notwithstanding,the quality of life for the poor in China did improve significantly,surpassing that in most other low-incomecountries. By 1977, the Chinese were assured that their mo.c basic needs would be met: their work, shelterand food supplieswere guaranteed, !/ Unlessotherviseindicated statisticalmaterialin the Annexhas been extracted fromChinai SocialiptEconomic (In Nine Volumes), Develooment World BankReportNo. 3391-CHA;June 1, 1981.  - 44 - the last through a combinationof state rationingand collectiveself-insurance; most of their children were not only in school, but being comparativelywell taught; and most had access to basic health care and family planning services. Life expectancy--oneof the beat indicatorsof the extent of real poverty in a country--wasestimatedto be between 64-68 years in the late 19708, an unusually high figure for a country at China's per capita income level. 4. New Strategies and Reforms. 1977-1980. Thanks to increased openmindedness within the Chinese leadership,the long standing debate over the ends and means of economic development began to be openly voiced and wider options discussed in the late 1970s. The debate was fueled by a growing awareness of the importance of economic considerations and the impact of continuingto ignore such signals. It was felt that future growth would depend more upon improvingthe efficiencyof resourceuse than on continuedmobilization of resources coupled with fundamental institutionalchanges, the recipe for achievingresults in the past. Furthermore, it seemed that benefitsderived from technologicalisolation as X stimulus to improvisationhad been taken over by costs in terms of preservingpockets of backwardnessand bottlenecks. Finally, the remarkableprogressmade in meeting industrialization and poverty reduction goals vas creating a demand for a commensurately rapid rise in general living standards. 5. Although the detailednature of the reform had not emergedconclusively by the end of the decade, the general direction was clear. The overwhelming consensus on the need for change had found expression in a number of policy innovations. One set of reforms aimed at providing lower-level units more freedom to maneuver, stronger incentives to seek efficiency and consumer preference, and better market signals. Thus, a formal revenue-sharingsystem gave provincial governments more autonomy to serve their constituencies efficiently. State enterprises were givenmore controlover productiondecisions and allowed to retain a certain percentage of their profits to pay bonuses, improve worker amenities, and modernize and expand their operations. To supplementand stimulate the state's unifieddistributionsystem, the number and variety of commercialchannelswere increasedand joint ventures cutting across traditional administrative boundaries were encouraged. The managementof foreign trade, vhich had begun to boom in the 1970s aftev a virtual stagnationduring the previous decade, vas decentralized somewhat, and incentivesto increase exports vere added. In the commune sector the role of the productionteam was enhanced and linkages between individualeffort and reward were strengthened. Under an approach called the "responsibilitysystem,, rural marketing structures were diversified,and emphasisbegan to shift from meeting nationalproductionquotas toward exploiting local comparative advantage. AgriculturalProgress and Problems 6. Chinese strategies for achieving poverty reduction and industrialixation were affected by tvo major constraints: first, an extreme shortage of cultivableland in relation to populationand second, a high degree of internationalisolation. These constraintsinfluencedthe trajectoryand pace of agriculturaldevelopment in particular. For one thing, prospective returns  - 45 - to investments in agriculture (the main source of income for the poor) were limited by land scarcity, the fact that the easiest advances In intensive cultivationhad alreadybeen made and the limitedopportunitiesfor international trade. Similarly, the inevitablecompetitionfor capital and skilled manpower was aggravatedby a nearly exclusive reliance on domestic resources. 7. All things considered,China's overall agricultural developmentduring the period was impressive, although the direction and pace of growth was not necessarilyuniform or balanced. The intense and increasingpressure on a very narrow arable land base was the single most delimiting factor. 1' Despite fluctuations,arable land hovered at slightly less than 100 million ha., while sown areas expanded at only about 0.2: p.a. throughoutthe period. The apparent explanation for this situation was that gains from land reclamation, new settlements,and irrigationwere offset by growing industrial and residential requirementsin the most densely populated and highly productiveareas. In any event, after 1965, there seems to have been little net change in either arable land or tho sown area. 8. The extremely rapid growth of China's rural population was another important factor. Partly because rural to urban migration was restricted, the agriculturallabor force increasedat 2% p.a., faster than any comparablecountry during the period. The stable land base and increasingpopulationmeant that the sown area per agriculturalworker in 1979 actuallyfell to two-thirdsof vhat it had been in 1952. Data on the agriculturallabor force and cultivatedareas, in combination with estimates of net agricultural output, indicate a decline in aggregate labor productivity despite a substantial increase in land prc-uctivity.3 In fact, between 1957 and 1977, net output per worker dropped by '2. 9. Scientific breakthroughs and technological advances mitigated the negative impact of the narrowing land base and burgeoning population and accounted for much of the productivityincreases during the period. As noted, agricultural land was already fairly efficiently utilized due to multiple cropping and refinementof traditionallabor-intensive cultivation techniques. In fact, cultivatedareas were some 148.5million ha. (or nearly 50o greater than the arable land base) due to successful multiple cropping. Biological breakthroughsin the major food staples--rice, wheat, and corn--led to improved seed varieties and built further on this already solid base. Particularly noteworthy were the popularizationof a rice hybrid and the development of a semi-dwarf improved rice variety, activities in which China led the way. it ratio The person/Lsnd was already less favorable in China in 1949 than it was in India in 1980. it The relative increases in rural per capita incomes compared with agricultural labor productivity ia attributable to increased procurement prices of agricultural products (versus near-constant prices for industrial good sold in rural areas) and the growing prominence of brigade-managed enterprises as a nonagricultural income source.  - 46 - 10. These advanceswere complementedby extensive efforts to improve the land base, extendirrigationand flood protectionsystems,and increasenutrient availabilitythrough chemicalfertilizers. In the 1950., the control of flooding and development of gravity flow irrigation systems were emphasized through massive projects involvingthousands of peasant workers. During the 1960s and 19708, the burgeoning industrial sector began to supply items to modernize processes,including pumps and engines for power-drivenirrigation. All totaled, irrigated land grew from 16 million ha. in 1949 to around 45 million ha. in 1979. With some 452 of the arable land under irrigation,China compared favorablywith other developing countries, which averaged around 172 of arable land under irrigation. 11. With improvedvarieties and inputs,better yields were obtained. With flood control and irrigation,productionbecame progressivelymore independent from the annual fluctuationsof weather. The benefitswere measured in terms of record-breakinggrain yields. In fact, by the end of the 1970s, China's cereal yields per arable hectare were significantlyhigher than the average for both developing and developed countries. 12. The collectiveimpact of these various factors,along with that of the dramatic policy shifts and reversals over the period, is seen in the profile of agricultural production over the thirty years. After an initial period of restructuringand recuperation, reestablishment of pre-war productionlevelswas again achievedby 1952-53. Within the next five years, outputs in all categories rose to new record levels. Between 1952-57,food grain productiongrew at over 3X p.a., cotton and oilseeds grew at 2.2Z, and other crops and animal husbandry/fisheries grew at 8.32 and 7.2Z, respectively.*' 13. Reversals due to bad weather and the impact of the Great Leap Forward (1958-60)subsequently checked progressuntil about 1965, after which strategies again changed. Procurementprices were increased and agriculturaldevelopment was accorded a higher priority in investmentplanning. Allocationsto producer goods industriesfor chemical fertilizers, tractors, irrigationpumps and other equipmentwere also increased,and this coincidedwith the emergenceof new high- yielding varieties of wheat and rice. Yields of certain commodities began to climb again. 14. These generally favorabledevelopmentswere conditionedby political considerations,however,and progresswas not uniform across commodities. On the one hand, policies that emphasizedprovincialgrain self-sufficiency and "grain first" strategiesengendereda healthy food grain output of about 32 p.a., and a renewedemphasis on rural industrysaw the output from brigade enterprisesgrow at more than 10Z p.a. On the other hand, production in other crop categories, If Chinai Socialist EconqmlcDevelo_ment, on. cit., Annex C, Table 3.1. It is interesting to note that the report disaggregates agricultural production into several standard categories of crop nd animal production, as well as another set of rural-based economic activities, largely consisting of brigade- or comnmune-managed*sidelines," some of which had little to do vith traditional agricultural pursuits tutwhich played a crucial role in the development of the rural are".  - 47 - rmained far belowthe levelsof the mid- as well as animaland fishproduction, 1950s. 15. Furthermore, althoughoverallagricultural growthat some 2.9Z p.a. between1965and 1977was respectable, it was a periodof substantial increase in modern inputs,and even higher performance might have been anticipated had policy conditionsbeen optimal. The subsequent rapid advances in sector performance duringthe late 1970s,when favorable policychangescomplemented increasedsuppliesof fertilizerand goodweatherconditions, supportsthe notion that outputactually fell shortof full potential duringthe 1965-77period. 16. The major agricultural problemsidentified In the late 1970swere traceableto thismixedlegacy. In the firstplace,sinceinvestment priorities for agriculturehad not alwaysbeen well selected, quantitative achievoments oftenmaskedconsiderable inefficiency.Thiswas especially the ca6ewith some chemicalfertilizerproduction unitsand largerirrigation projects. Secondly, becauseincentives and producer were restricted discretion duringthe period, effectivefarm managementpracticeswere not always rewarded and thus not inculcated.Technology changeon the scaleand at the speedachieved from the 19608 onwards also had repercussions. The Increased supply and often indiscriminateusage of chemicalfertilizer was not withoutboth economic and ecological consequences. A sizeable proportion of the agriculturalmachinery producedin the 19709was of indifferentquality,which resultedin frequent breakdowns, costs and sometimes high maintenance prematurewriteoffs. Major problemsin land developmentalso emerged,involvingerosion,siltation,and salinity. HumanResourceDevelopment 17. Just as in other sectors, the goals of poverty reductionand industrializationguidedhumanresource development policies duringthe initial phase. Strategies included creating an egalitarian and uniform education system which would successfully developboth socialist consciousness and intellectual abilities. Conflict arosewhen policies and strategies were actually put into practice,however, as it was difficultto strike a consistent balance between the provision of basic education on a massivescale (where political education was emphasized) and the development of more advanced training on a more selective basis (where technical and intellectual skills were refined). In the final analysis,efforts to expand the coverage and improve the quality of basic educationweresuccessful, whilesimilar sporadicefforts toward higher education had mixed resultsat best. 18. Initially, and throughout the 1950s,therewas steadyand Impressive progress in highereducation.From a minutebase of 120,000in 1949,the sub- sectorgrewrapidly. By 1958,the enrollment ratewas 1.6Zof the relevantage group,whichwas similarto the averagefor other developingcountriesat that time. The Great Leap Forward and the economic difficulties that ensued interrupted this advance, but by the mid-1960c it had regainedmomentum.  - 48 - 19. During the Cultural Revolution (1966-76),the whole education system was severely disrupted and the quality drastically altered. Many schools and universitieswere initiallyclosed. Equipment was destroyed and books burned. Vocational and technical secondary schools were largely abolished, as was postgraduateeducation. Primary and secondary schoolsopened after two or three years, but universities and other post-secondaryinstitutionsremained closed until the early 1970s, and even then opened on a diminishedscale. An open-door admissions policy was adopted at all levels, except for those whose class backgroundswere deemed undesirable,which generally included children of the intelligentsia. Course length was arbitrarilyreduced,political and practical subjectswere emphasized,and attentionto core academicareas was reduced. The teaching force--not to mention the teaching quality--was altered, eince many teachersand professors,accused of "bourgeois" attitudes,were dispatc2ied to the countryside and replaced with peasants, workers and others with more acceptable political--ifless desirable educational--backgrounds. 20. The cost of CulturalRevolutionwas very high in human resourceterms, and its harmful legacy haunted China throughoutthe remainderof the decade and well beyond. It is estimated to have cost the country two million middle-level technicians and one millicn university graduates alone. In addition, only a mediocre educationwas given to thosewho did pass through the system during this period. The.proportions of the labor force with a university or specialized technical education (including vocational secondary schocoling) were low by internationalstandards and in 1979, were 0.5% and 0.9Z, respectively. Even though the Chinese education system had generally favored science and engineering (over arts and social sciences), only 1% of the labor force had scientific or technical training. Of these, an estimated 28% were engaged in teaching or research, another 302 in medicine, with only about 42% working directly in agriculture or industry. As a result, the ratio of scientificand 1 technical personnel to total manpower in the productivesectors was very low.5 Furthermore,the few scientistsand techniciansthat there were possessed a poor or obsolete knowledge stemming from ten years of educational disruptions and isolation from the rest of the world. 21. The educationalstrategiesof the secondhalf of the 1970s complemented the new economic policies and social openness that was beginning to take place. The importance of technical and intellectual expertise resurfaced, and educational quality again became an important issue. "Key" schools and universities,technicaland vocationaleducation,and postgraduate studywere re- establishedand supported.t Courses were restored to their former length, and 51 Even in chemicalsand machinerymanufacturing, the ratio in Chinawas 4.52, comparedwith 5.22 in Brazil,9.32 in Mexico, and 21.12 in the UniteJ States. In agriculture, the technicaland scientific ratio manpower at 0.5-1.0 was estimated with 2 perthousand compared per thousand, in Mexico and the international of 5 per thousand. average di The "key" achool or university concept ls based on the assumption that centers of excellence and specialization can: (i) provide academic and Intellectual leadership to the rest of the education community,(ii) improve the quality of education and strengthen the system, and (iii) be a coat effectiveway of allocatingresources.  - 49 - universityenrollmentrose. Even so, the enrollmentrate in 1979 was only 1.22-- half the average for other low-incomecountriesand a quarter of the average for all developingcountries. Physical facilities were largely uncrowded,but there was an acute shortage of scientificequipment (especiallycomputers) and books and journals for postgraduatestudies. Universityteaching staff were numerous (with a student/teacher ration of 4.3, which was low by internationalstandards), but largely underqualified. Even in the 20 key universities,only 8$ of the staff had completed post graduate studies, and 162 had three or less of higher education. 22. Although there continued to be a strong bias toward science and engineering, especially at the key universities,the curriculum was weak and unbalanced. For example, immunologyand genetics were excluded from the basic life sciences course, while physical chemistrywas emphasizedat the expense of organic and inorganic chemistry. Moreover, the cost of these institutions was very high by internationalstandards,primarilybecausethe student/teacher ratio was high, the physical facilitieswere underutilizedand a high proportionof studentswere boarders. Costs per studentwere on the order of $1,000 per year-- double the average cost in other developing countries and 50 times the per student cost of primary education in China.  - 50 - ANNEX2 PROJECT INSTITUTIONS AND ADMINISTRATIVE APFILIATION.' ministry/Bureau 1980 / 81 College/Institute Affiliation Location EnrolLmentk Teaching/Research ______ ______ ____ _ __________________________ ______ _____Staff _______ NanjingAgricultural MA Nanjing, 1,147 484 College _ Jiangsu (136) Central China HOA Wban, 2,361 675 Agricultural College Hubei (374) _i South China MOA ¢uanghnou, 2,054 674 Agricultural College Guangdong (528) __ Northwestern ien, XlA 2,178 555 AgriculturalCollege _ Shaanxl (306) Southwestern MOA Choa8qiga 2,527 474 Agricultural College Sichuan (528) || Shenyang Agricultural MOA Shenyang, 1,901 592 College Liaonlng (401) || South China Tropical Ministry of State Farms Hatnan, 677 180 Crops College & Land Reclamation Guangdong (100) Beijing Forestry Ministry of Beijin 940 323 College Forestry (227) _ East China Technical Ministry of Water Najing 2,680 629 Universityof Conservancy Jilngeu (309) Water Resources 11 Shanghai Aquatic General Bureau of Shanghai 709 276 Products College Aquatic Products (105) 11 Nanjing Meteorological CentralMeteorolo-gical Nanjini, 1,176 300 College Bureau Jiangsu (317) _ CAAS Animal Husbandry CAAS (MOA) Beijing 120 Research Institue CAAS Library and CAAS (HOA) Beijing 124 Information Center Center for Monitoring Ministry of Forestry Beijing 130 ForestryResources Survey & Planning ___________________________ Institute Water Conservancy Ministry of Water a locations 1,929 Research Centers Conservancy Lake Taihu Experimental General Bureau of Wuxi, 41 Base Aquatic Products Jiangsu MeteorologyData CentralMeteorolo- Beijing 48 ServiceCenter gicalBureau Chinese National Rice CAAS Hangzhou, Research Institute Zhejia _Long-_ The Audit acknowledgesthat some project institutions have sitce changed their names for a variety of reasons (suchas upgrading from a college to a university). The original nanes have been kept in the Interest of simplicity. Sources SAR Table 3.1 hI Female enrollmentin parentheses.  - 51 - Annex 3 Page 1 of 2 PROJECT INDICATORSAND TARGETS Bame 1980/81 OriginalTarget FinalTarget Indicator/Target (FromFirst (From WAR) Mission) Appraisal _ Enrollment and Outputin Project _ i Institutions Undergraduate enrollment 18,350 23,500 23,500 Postgraduate enrollment Colleges 350 1,900 1,900 Institutes 90 200 120 Improved sex ratio enrollments 2 Freshmen vho are female 17 25 21 Undergraduate output (# of graduates) 4,229 5,025 5,025 Quality Improvement Quality of staffand its source 2 of staff vith less education than four years of study 17 Less than 5 Less than 5 2 of staff in trop three grades under 45 years of age (1,195 members) holding: Doctoral degrees 0 15 5 Master's degrees Few 23 15 1 of staff who are graduates of the college in which they teach 51 40 Under 50 Curriculum improvement, expansion and broadening 2 of experiments conducted out of total :equired curricula 59 85 83 Number of graduate degree programs authorized by StateCouncil(by speciality): Doctoral Lessthan 10 50 55 Master's Lessthan 10 200 110 Establishing agricultural education/ extension units in project college (number of colleges) 0 5 6 Introducing a basiccourseIn I' farming systems (2 of students enrolled) 0 80 5 (2 of staffdevelop.expenditures) 0 20 (2 of research expenditures) 1 20 *l / Indicator or Target was dropped in finalform.  - 52 - Annex 3 Page 2 of 2 Base 1980/81 OriginalTarget FinalTarget Indicator/Target (FromFirst (FromSAR) Mission) Appraisal Qualitative Improvement (cont'd) Strengthening agricultural economicls/ management courses and expanding enrollment (as 2 of total enrollment) Undergraduate 7 10 10 Postgraduate 3 10 10 _ Improvement of student : intaket Improving the S of freshmen admitted with national college entrance scores below 340 7 Less than 1 Less than 1 Prompting intercollege exchange of students: 2 of postgraduates who took their undergraduate work at another college Less than 5 Over 25 Over 25 Delaying student's decision to choose specialized area after admission to the college(number of colleges) 1 11 11 Consolidation of Curriculum: S of specialities with fewer than 100 students 38 Less than 10 Research Improvement Quality of research: 2 of staff research published in: Local college journal Over 90 Under 50 Under 50 CAASjournals Lessthan 10 Over 20 Over 20 CAS and international journals Lessthan5 15 Over 10 ManagementImprovement Improvingstaffutilizacion 1:3.6 1:6.0 1l5.0 (expressedin teacher:student ratio) Improving spaceutilization Under40 Over60 Over 60 (2 utilization) Extendingthe periodof library services(hours per week) 40 100 80 Broadening to accessof students No open Fullyopen Fullyopen librarymaterials stacks stacks stacks centers Audiovisualservice In to improve operation teaching 3 10 MissionBackto OfficeReportand SAR,Annex5. Sourcess Appraisal 1 indicator or target was dropped in finalform.  - 53 - ANNEX4 ESTIMATEDCOST BY PROECT OBJECTIVE! Local I Foreign T Total Local Forelgn I Total ProjectObjective (Yuan Million) (US$ million) Improvementof Teachina and ResearchQuality Fellovshipsand Academic Study tours 2.7 23.4 26.1 1.5 13.4 14.9 Specialist services Academic _ 2.1 2.1 - 1.2 1.2 Language training 3.;kl 3.1 6.1 1.7 1.8 3.5 Equipment 46.1 79.3 125.4 26.3 45.3 71.6 Subtotal 51.8 107.9 159.7 29.5 61.7 91.2 ExDansionof Enrollmentand ResearchCavacitv I Furniture 4.3 - 4.3 2.5 - 2.5 Construction& Remodeling 124.6 _ 124.6 71.2 _ 71.2 Subtotal 128.9 128.9 73.7 _ 73.7 lmnrovementof Organizationand Manaaementof Resources Managementstudy tours _ 1.3 1.3 _ 0.8 0.8 Specialistservices-management - 0.9 0.9 - 0.5 0.5 Management expenses 3.0 - 3.0 1.7 - 1.7 Subtotal 3.0 2.2 5.2 1.7 1.3 3.0 Studies and Preparationof Future Proects 3.0 1.8 4.8 1.7 1.0 2.7 Baseline 186.7 111.9 298.6 106.6 64.0 170.6 Contingencies Unforeseen 9.3 5.6 14.9 5.3 3.2 8.5 Price escalation 25.0 14.4 39.4 14.3 8.2 22.5 Total Prolect Cost 221.0 131.9 352.9 126.2 75.4 201.6 Source SAR, Table 5.1 / Civil works for language training facilitied.  - 54 - ANE 5 ORIGINAL FINANCIAL PLANA Category of Government _ _ Association I_Total Estimated Association Average Financing Expenditure (US$ million) (X Total Expenditures) _ Civil Works and Furniture 85.3 - 85.3 0 Imported Equipment - 50.5 50.5 100 Locally Procured Equipment 29.8 - 29.8 0 SpecialistServices - 5.4 5.4 100 Fellowships 1.6 16.3 17.9 91 Studies and Management Expenses 4.2 - 4.2 0 Unallocated 5.3 3.2 8.5 38 Total 126.2 75.4 201.6 37 Sources SAR, Table 5.5  - 55 - AMIEX 6 OF THE PROJECT MANAGEMENT MEMBERS COMMITTEE - Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry end Fishery (MAAF) - Ministry of Forestry (MOF) - Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power (MWREP) - State Meteorology Administration(SMA) - Chinese Academy of AgriculturalScience (CAAS) - Bureau of Land Reclamation (BLR) - Department of Education (DOE) - Department of Science and Technology (DST) - Bureauof Aquatics (BA) - SurveyPlanning Institute - Foreign Affairs Department  - 56 - ANE 7 TOTAL PROJECT INV9SIMENM' (US$ Million) Appraisal Estimate (US$)k Actual Investment (USS) Cttegories Government Bank X Govermentil Bank S CivilWorks 85.3 42 81.6 - 44 Equipmentand Books 29.8 50.5 40 25.2 52.4 42 Expert services and management 4.2 5.4 3 4.4 2.7 4 Training 1.6 16.3 9 - 18.2 10 Unallocated 5.3 3.2 4 - - - Total 126.2 75.4 100 111.2 73.3 100.0 *I Sources ProjectCompletionReport, Table 1 and Audit Mission data. ki Appraisal Estlmates based on an ezchange rate of US$1 - 11.75. St Government investment calculated using actual exchange rate during implementation.  ANX 8 THE PHASINGANDPURPOSEOF STUDYOF FELLOWSHIP HOLDERS-L UNDERLOAN1297-CHA _9- . - _ __ TOtal DOCTORT3 iASTn *DATM= SuD! Actua Achi.,msWt an wooer Plnned Iher dnrt duringOm yea Pl a e? set tiaq " t Planed lotb et 'In the yea 0_r of Taret Plned ~_as S 8 es at4 as5 96 u1 a 94 aU gU 7 m Acbleed (2) itArc.Coll 41 6 5 3_ 1 1 20 20 10 is - I I 1_ SS 163.9 ntrel Cbie A4lcudltal College 42 5 I I _ I 30 so 13 4 1 9 9 a_ 2 S9 1".1 OCbne Ar ltaal Colley 40 5 2 4 3 1 23 1 35 a 3 12 I 3 5 4 G1 152.3 m4stetuagytultualCollege 42 6 2 I 29 12 9 4 3 3 a 6 2 3 7 _ _1 143.2 Seat_utem Agricultttl1 Cone" 37 3 1 1 _ 31 1t 14 4 S 2 2 2 6 _ 1 117.o Agriculturl Clle 40 5 _ _ 2 _ _ 23 14 6 7 1- 10 7 _ 4 _ 4 135.0 chn Trpleal Creps CoUa 47 5 I 1 _I_ 19 6 7 _ 2 = 3 a 5 3 9 51 109.3 *.t 1areCo~.lle - 39 4 _ 2 - 7 _ _ 1 _3 7 32 133.3 heat Chm __o m?&.%IV. of 33 3 I 5 9 9 3 III. to 2 |15 | | I || - 1-1 .0 Aquaic llo 47 6 I_1 2n 1 431 91.3 ______ , !I ,jb29 1 _4_ 1119 t t 14 10.3 Animlbab sm a l a ercbruat. 16 1 4 1 Fs 1 6 1 4 1 1 - 12 1s 112.3 LibCrary =0 lfotutio Center 24 2 1 I 1 1 74 14 * - 1 4 - -200. -5 dtorisa Nr Prestry Resources 17 0 00 - ! I 1. -17 -2 4. Cot cor n= e archCenters 62 4 3 1 1 9 4 S 1 1 49 9 23 16 13 33 110 177.4 Taibu x r t l Bs s 13 is 1I 1___1 2 9 2 1 1 1 1 16 I 123.1 yData Service Cenr 31 .7 T 2 a 25.- se ationel lice Researeh {natit t 86 13 4 6 3 | 33 2 14 11 16 1 40 3 7 7 7 67 101.2 TOTAL 686 79 18 1821 17 i 322 14111576 39 7 283 7289 94 73 911I 132.6 L Source: Project Office and Audit Mission Data.  - 58 - ANNEX9 ASSISTED UNDERCREDIT 1297-CH&A' DESTINATIONOF FELLOWS Host Country Doctorate iasters' Advanced Totals ________________ Study 8__________________________ United States 61 246 258 565 United Kingdom 8 67 36 111 I Japan 1 13 59 73 Canada 2 19 36 57 France 0 20 2 22 West Germany 3 2 20 25 Australia 1 4 9 14 Philippines 0 3 1 4 Italy 0 0 9 9 15 Other countries 1 4 26 31 TOTALS 77 378 456 911 Sources Project Office and Audit Mlision Data. AA  OVERSEASTRAINING PROGRAM FOR AGRICULTURAL SCIENTISTS-L CATEGORY ORIGINALNUMBER OF FELLOIS PLANED ACTUAL NUMBER OF FEILIOS SENT Approval PCR Government June 30 June 30 October 30, (SAR) CompletSon 1988 1988 1990 ,,p,o;Ifn (PCR) (Gov.Completion Audit Mission Report) Doctoral 41 41 53 77 77 77 Masters 147 147 171 377 377 378 Advanced Study (1) 1 year tours 201 (ii) 2-6 month tours 244 (Total)SL (445) (201) (226) (421) (421) (456) I TOTALS 633 389 450 875 875 911 Sources: SAR para 3.03; PCR Table 2; GovernmentCompletionReport para 1.2.1; and ProjectOffice. bl 'lt is not known why the Government's original figures were larger, unless other types of study (such as library/information sciences or management trailing) were also included. Fl For the PCR and the Government Completion Report, it is possible that total numbers for advanced study are partial, being a reflection of the 1 year study tours only.  - 60 - ANNEX I11 FELLOWSRETURNINGFROMOVERSEASSTUDr-' CATEGORY Number of Student Number eturned By June 30, 1988 By October 30, 1990 Doctorate 77 10 18 mEaster's 378 35 55 Advanced Study 456 223 333 TOTAL 911 268 406 Sources: Covernment Completion Report, Project Offlce, and Audit Miasion Data.  - 61 - AWLX 12 Page I of 2 ANDTARGETS OF PROJECTINDICATORS ACHIEVEMENT Targt t Indicator/Target a*s Midway * ina ActualI of 1980/81 1983/84 19S6/86 Target Enrollmentand Output in Project Institutions enrollment Undergraduate 18,350 19,320 23,500 30,757k1 131 Postgraduate enrollment 440 950 1,900 2,734 144 Improved sex ratio enrollments Z Freshmen who are female 17 19 21 26 123 Undergraduate output (t of graduates) 4,229 4,195 5,025 6,375 127 Quality Improvement Qualityof staffand Its source 2 of staffvith less education than four years of study 17 12 Less than 5 5 97 2 of staff in top three grades under 45 yearsof age (1,195 members)holdings Doctoral degrees 0 2 5 3 54 Master's degrees Few 5 15 22 144 Z of staffwho are graduates of the college In which they teach 51 46 Less than 50 45.9 109 Curriculum Improvement, expansion and broadening 2 of experiments conducted out of total required curricula 59 70 83 g98 118 Number of graduate degree program authorized by State Council (by speciality): Doctoral Less than 10 35 55 57 104 Master's Less than 10 70 110 178 162 Esarblishing agriculturaleducation/ extension units in projectcollege (number of colleges) 0 3 6 9 150 Introducing a basic course In farming systems t (I of students enrolled) 0 20 50 _ _ _  - 62 - ANNIEX 12 Page 2 of 2 .__________ _ .Target _ IndicatorlTarget _ _ miidway Final Actual1 l of 1980/81 1983/84 1985/86 Target Qualltative Icprovant (conttd) Strengthening agricultural conemical maragmnt courses and expanding enrollmet (as S of total enrollmnt) Undergraduate 7 8 10 17 166 Postgraduats 3 6 10 12 115 Improvement of student intakes Improving the S of fresbzen admitted vith national college entrance scores below 340 7 Less than 4 Less than 1 100 Promptlng lntercollege exchange of students: 2 of postgraduates who took their undergraduate work at another collge Lees than S Over 10 Over 25 33 132 Delaying student's decision to choose epecialized area after admlssion to s the college (number of collages) 1 11 - jg .--. j Research Improvemnt Quaiity of research: Z of staff research published ln: Local college journal Over 90 90 Less than 50 33 ISO MAS journala Lees than 10 10 Over 20 25 248 CAS and international journals Less than 5 5 Over 10 42 425 Management Impravement Improvaig staff utilization 1:3.6 1s4.2 1s5.0 1:4.111 82 (extpressed in teacheristudent ratio) - - _- _- Improving sce utillzation Under 40 Over 45 Over 60 68 113 (I utilization) _ _ Extending the period of llbrary services(hours pEr veek) 40 50 80 77.2 97 Broadening accessof studento to library meterials None Som Fully Part lal 1 Data from 1987 unless otherwlse noted. 3 From 1989/1990. Indicator not monitored. Sourcess PCR Annex4 and Audit Misslon.  - 63 - ANNEX13 PROJECTEDINCREASES IN EXPERIMNTS PER COURSEWITH PROJECT EQUIPMENTIN USE (Z) Percentageof Experlmnts carried out Colleges 1981 At Project 1989 completion (Baae) (Projected) (Actual) Nanjing Agricultural College S0 60 93 CentralChina AgriculturalCollege 62 87 98 South China AgriculturalCollege 57 75 95 NorthwesternAgriculturalCollege 81 94 99 SouthwesternAgriculturalCollege 60 85 99 Shenyang Agricultural College 70 90 98 South China TropicalCrops College 40 80 116 Beijing Forestry College 60 95 92 East China TechnicalUniversityof Water Resources 75 88 89 ShanghaiAquatic ProductsCollege 51 89 94 NanjingNeteorologicalCollege 40 70 102 Average _9 83 73 97. Source: SAR Table 3.3, Audit Mission Data.  - 64 - ANNI!X 14, OF SPECIALIZATIONS ANDDEPARTHENTS GROWTH AT PROJECT INSTITUTIONS Total Total Colleges Spcializarions Depa tment 1981 1990 1981 1990 Nanjing AgriculturalCollege 9 19 6 11 Central China AgriculturalCollege 14 22 9 11 South China Agricultural College 16 28 8 11 NorthwesternAgriculturalCollege 13 15 8 10 SouthwesternAgriculturalCollege 13 18 8 11 ShenyangAgriculturalCollege 17 20 9 9 South China Tropical Crops College 6 8 5 7 Beijing ForestryCollege 8 14 4 6 East China Technical Universityof Water Resources 8 27 6 15 ShanghaiAquatic Products College 11 11 3 4 Nanjing Meteorological College 5 6 3 5 [ Total Ia 122 69 ! loo Source: SAR Annex 2A, and Audit Mission Data.  - 65 - STUDENTSAT PROJECT TERTIARY INSTITUTIONS: AND POSTGRADUATE NUMBEROF UNDERGRADUATE PROJECTED(1985/86) APPRAISAL(1980/81), ANDAUDIT (1989/90) Enrol lsnt institutions Undergraduate _ Postgraduate Total 1980/81 1985186 1989/90 1980/81 1985/86 1989/90 Base Projected Actual B se Projeoted Actual _ _ Nanjing Agricultural College 1,147 2,055 3,060 54 300 358 3,418 Central China Agricultural College 2,361 2,731 2,963 34 219 252 3,215 South China Agricultural College 2,054 2,730 3,503 71 200 267 3,770 Northwestern Agricultural College 2,178 2,700 3,054 41 120 298 3,352 Southwestern Agricultural College 2,527 2,820 2,876 10 459 46 2,922 Shenyang Agricultural College 1,901 2,880 2,800 7 250 229 3,029 South China Tropical Crops college 677 1,080 1,752 - 45 23 1,775 Beijing Forestry College 940 1,590 1,857 17 120 152 2,009 East China Technical University of Water Resources 2,680 3,028 5,909 96 96 329 6,238 Shanghai Aquatic Products College 709 900 1 ,583 - So 31 1,614 Nanjing Meteorological College 1,176 970 1,400 17 50 103 1,503 Total |18_350| 23,484 30,7St 347 [ 129,9 2,088 32,845  ANNES16 s STUDENT TEACHER RATIO AT PROJECTTERTRY INSTITUTIONS 1980/81 1989/90 _ Teaching Total Teacher: Teaching Total Teacher: Staff Enrollment Student Staff Enrollmen Student Ratio t Ratio Nanjing Agricultural College 484 1,201 1 : 2.48 877 3,418 1 i 3.90 Central China Agricultural College 675 2,395 1 t 3.55 751 3,215 1 t4.28 South China Agricultural College 674 2,125 1 : 3.15 747 3,770 1 s 5.05 Northwestern Agricultural College 555 2,219 1 : 4.00 781 3,352 1 :4.29 Southwestern Agricultural College 474 2,537 1 s S.35 731 2,922 1 i 4.00 Shenyang Agricultural College 592 1,908 1 a 3.22 705 3,029 1 4. 30 South China Tropical Crops College 180 677 1 t 3.76 287 1,775 1 t 6.18 Beijing Forestry College 323 957 1 t 2.96 504 2,009 1 : 3.99 East China Techaical University of Water Resources 629 2,776 1 t 4.41 1,937 6,238 1 :3.22 Shanghal Aquatic Products College 276 709 1 t 2.57 394 1,614 1 1 4.10 Nanjing Meteorological College 300 1,193 1 : 3.98' 264 1,503 1 a 5.65 Totals 5,162 18,697 7,978 32,854 Average I_ 3 62 1 a 4.12 Source: SAR. Tables 3.1, 3.4, and Audit Mission Data.  - 67 - ANNEX 17 LABORATORY AND SPECIALIZED FACILITIES UTILIZATION (hours/week) Labs for Central Computer Audio-Visual Basic Special Labs Rooms Library Labs Courses Courses Total Average Weekly Hours in 40.9 48.6 42.9 54.7 57.3 38.8 Use Teaching 21.3 20.6 9.4 30.7 46.0 30.0 Research 14.8 25.0 23.5 19.6 9.0 5.8 Public Service 4.8 3.0 10.0 4.4 2.3 3.0 Source: Borrower Completion Report, PCR