Uganda - Energy efficiency improvement in the brick and tile industry

Z
. .Z' iw " L-1 c k z - VY" 'V7 g owo 1
.
41
, g, N "ga A 17M 411 IT, 4'1,1'
:.%
I
F2
v j;p g 7sag A.- 4 - A A
N AF. X2B, 4
-,* X-111 -A
I^R K 13T.W. 2,11 1
R 1
nl W71 WR 'kN .tF I ,
l . VP C
IN, V4_ 9" N 7, j4t
, ni AW, 5
X, Li, 7,* V _fk Y Et V
x W-1-V -;:4N,`w -.4 t 14
M tv If 4MII
'k M T5 z w- -7 T. bl 1
pl V! ke_iAil. 9N TV;i sr -gg S' X, - i6 4&
 i6 -VA U4, IX" I, -r, 0, F.7-- ,w4k -4 . ..... i'M "We" X4i , j u
-xuo
I WN wl

f2li Q11, WV, jw 10 -na  ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEHENT IN THE BRICK AND TILE INDUSTRY MARCH 1989  ACROWYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS Acronyms EIL Experiment in International Living GOU government of Uganda IPF Indicative Program Funding KCI Kiteredde Construction Institute I4M Ministry of Cooperatives and Marketing mmWD Ministry of Housing and Urban Development MNO Ministry of Energy MOEPF Ministry of of Environmental Protection and Forestry WOIT Ministry of Industry and Technology MPED Ministry of Planning and Economic Development UNDP United Nations Development Programme Abbreviations kg kilogram m meter MJ megajoule mm millimeter N Newton RFO Residual Fuel Oil t metric tonne toe tonne of oil equivalent tonne metric tonne USh Uganda Shilling US$ U. S. Dollar  CWRUCY EQUIVALETS (as of September 1987) USh 60 a US$1.00 ENERGY CONVERSION FACTORS 1 metric tonne (t) D 1,000 kilograms (kg) 1 tonne of oil equivalent (toe) - 10 million kilocalories (keal) 1 tonne of oil equivalent (toe) = 41.9 megajoules (MJ) 1 tonne of oil equivalent (toe) - 7.33 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) 1 kilocalorie (kcal) = 0.00419 gigajoules (GJ) 1 megajoule (NJ) - 1 million Joules (J) 1 megajoule (NJ) = 239 kilocalories (kcal) 1 aegajoule (NJ) = 0.0000239 toe FUEL CONVERSION FACTORS Density Fuel Unit as Used Lower Heating Value (kg/unit) (MJ/kg) Fuelwood m3 stacked 510 15.0 (air-dried Eucalyptus) Coffee Husk m3 stacked 410 15.5 Rice Husk m3 stacked 105 13.0 Papyrus Stalks m3 stacked 240 15.0 Residual Fuel Oil (RFO) litre 0.98 38.6  TABLE OF COUTES Page No. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................. ..... ..... .. i Project Development .................................... 1 Objectives ..04.0.6.. ............... ........ ....... 2 Scope ..................****..*.***... 000000@40 ***,* 3 National Economy....................................... 4 Energy 8ector......................................... 4 III. THE BRICK AND TILE INDUSTRY............................... 6 Structure................................ 6 Ovrie........... 000*O*.. 0....0 6 Artisan P roducers.............................e.... 7 Small-scale, Semi-mechanized Producers... 7 Medium-scale, Mechanized Producerstucer.*****s.*. 7 Brick and Tile Deund... 7 7 Estm tio........................ 8 Brick and Tile S U P P 1 Y 8 OveViee r V i eW.................. 8 Artisanal Production ......9 Small Scale, Semi-mechanized Production ............. 10 Medium Scale, Mechanized Production................. 10 Future Production .... 4000000000000060000*090000000e 11 Supply/Demand Gap...................................... 11 energy Consumption in the Brick and Tile Industry......e 12 Overview .............................................. 12 Artisanal Producers ................................. 13 Small Scale, Semi-mechanized Producers .............. 14 Medium Scale, Mechanized Producers.................. 14 IV. PROPOSED MEASURES TO IMPROVE ENERGY EFFICIENCY ............ 15 Overview ................. ................. 0e*0**000000 15 Artisan Producers ..........5........ 15 Energy Efficiency Measures........................... 15 Implementation...................................... 16 Introduction of Brick and Block Standards........... 18 Potential Energy ...................... 18 Small Scale, Semi-mechani.ed Producers.. .............. 19 Energy Efficiency Measures.......................... 19 Potential Energy Savings............................ 21 Medium Scale Producers......... .. ................... 21 Sub-sector Status............0...................**. 21  Energy Efficiency Measures ........................* 21 Impleakentation ...............,4*o*,oo,,,o, 21 Potential Energy Savingso..........................* 21 ALternative Fuels .................. ..*.*eee*....4** * 22 V. PROJECT COSTS AND SCHEDULING .............................. 23 8ummarye o ............o..o.....o...... ..o......... ... 23 Artisan Producers...................................... 25 Small Scale, Semi-mechanized Producers*................ 25 Medium Scale, Mechanized Producers.....................* 25 VI. PROJECT BENEFITS, JUSTIFICATION AND RISKS................. 26 Project Benefitso...................................... 26 Direct Fuelwood Savings............................. 26 Improved Product Qualityo.........................+o 28 Project Justification.o........oooo.o..oo.o*. o.o..o... 28 Financial Analysisa........ ....**...00*.*00*0........ 28 Economic Analysis.....o l y si.o..oo...o..o...osooo.oo. 30 Project Risks 32 TABLEs 3.1 Classsfication of Brick and Tile Industry................. 6 3.2 Estimated Brick and Tile Demand ........................... 8 3.3 Estimated Brick and Tile Supply ........................... 9 3.4 Proposed Brick and Tile Plants ............................ 11 3.5 Brick and Tile Supply/Demand Analysis..................... 12 3.6 Current Energy Consumption in Brick and Tile Industries... 13 4.1 Potential Energy Savings in Artisanal Brick Manufacture... 19 5.1 Summary of Cost of Recommended Component .................. 24 6.1 Fuelvood Savings Due to Proposed Energy Efficiency Measures for Artisan and Small-Scale Producers at Various Levels of Production............................ 27 6.2 Financial Cost of Fuelwood................................ 29 6.3 Project Financial Rate of Return.......................... 29 6.4 Estimates of Marginal Economic Cost of Fuelwood Production............. . ..... ..... .... . ................. 30 6.5 Economic Value of Fuelwoode................................ 31 6.6 'roject Economic Rate of Return........................... 31 1 List of Institutions snd Individuals Contacted............ 33 2 Structure of the Brick and Tile Industry.................. 36 3 Estimation of Brick and Tile Demand....................... 39 4 Brick Making in Uganda.................................... 54 5 A Sample of Periodic Kilns................................ 55 6 Horizontal and Vertical Cross Sections of a Hoffman Ring Kiln.............................................. 56 7 Brick and Block withFrog................................. 57 8 Relationship of Output of Clamp Kiln to Kiln Size......... 58  9 Kiteredde Construction Iastitute.......................... 60 10 Proposed Dimensions of Standards Bricks and Block kseee... 63 11 Model Down-draft Kiln 64 12 Model Small-Scale, Semi Mechanized Brick and Tile Production Unit. ........... 000 00 .. 67 13 Blade-set Clamp Kilns in Indonesia......o...oeo...o....... 91 14 Estimated Costs of Efficiency Improvement Measures in Artiosn subsector o.......................e........... * 92 15 Cost of an Eight Chamber Down-draft Kil n 93 16 Pinancial Analysis of Artisan and Small Scale Producer Project Components * 94 17 Economic Analysis of Artisan and Small Scale Producer Project Cop to n e n t o 101 MAP IBRD 18540Bs Uganda  gxCcuTIVE SUIQIARY 1. The availability of energy is an important determinant in Uganda's economic development, and measures for developing energy supply and managing demand need to be planned and implemented in order to prevent energy bottlenecks from restraining economic recovery. The 1983 Energy Assessment Report, prepared under the joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Assessment Program, outlined a number of issues which needed to be addressed to enable the energy sector to play an effective role in the economic recovery of Uganda. One of the issues was the need to improve anergy efficiency of rural industries to alleviate the pressure on existing fuelwood resources. Objectives 2. The overall goal of this ESMAP activity ia to identify and evaluate technically and economically feasible means for improving the energy efficiency of the brick and tile industry in Uganda. Reduction of fuelwood demand would be expected to directly contribute to stemuing the erosion of Uganda's wood capital. In addition, as fuelwood supplies to the brick and tile industry are obtained at significant financial cost, energy efficiency gains should translate into greater production at lower cost. Woodfuels Sector 3. Woodfuels account for 96% of Uganda's current energy consump- tion, including approximately 70P of commercjal energy. Current consump- tion is estimated to be around 18,00O,000 m of fuelwood equivalent, and is expected to rise to 27,500,0O0 m by the 2000. 4. Growth of the woodfuel economy has precipitated the development of a number of discrete areas where woodfuels have become in short supply, most especially in parts of West Nile, Soroti, Mbarara and Rakai districts. This trend is very likely to accelerate. Current annual production , woody biomass in Uganda is estimated to be around 15,600,000 mo of fuelwood equivalent; demand thus exceeds sustainable supply by around 171. This picture is ezpected to change dramatically over the next 15 years. By the year 2000, demand for woodfuel is expected to exceed the 1985 sustainable supply by nearly 80X. Of this estimated future demand, commercial woodfuels will account for 191, compared with 141 in 1985. Brick and Tile Industry Structure S. Brick manufacturing methods in developing countries range from traditional artisan production units to medium-scale, capital intensive plants. In Uganda, considering the scale and technique of production, the brick and tile industry could be classified into artisan, small-scale  and medium-scale production units. Table I summarizes the production techniques used by the various producers. Table t- CLASSIFICATION Of BRICK AND TILE INDUSTRY Number of Scale of Bricks/day Production (overage) 0/ Process Used Market Area Artisan b/ 1,000 Hand-made, Rural villages clamp-fired Small 10,000 SemI-mechanized Near towns Medium c/ 40,000 Mechanized, extruded, Near industrial- wire cut continuous Ized areas of rln; kiln high demand a/ Annual production per unit depends on the number of days In operation considering weather conditions and other constraints. b/ Artisan producers are major suppliers of brick In Uganda. c/ Presently Uganda Clays Is the only medium scale brick and tile producer in Uganda. Brick and Tile Supply and Demand 6, The demand for building materials (e.g. bricks and tiles) is more complex than simply pressure from population expansion. Knowledge of Uganda's recent history emphasizes the importance of demand for bricks and tiles caused by a large backlog in housing stock, plus reconstruction and maintenance of damaged and neglected buildings. Simultaneously# after years of stagnation, the construction industry has enormous building material requirements for new construction, reconstruction and maintenance in the industrial, commercial, clerical, private and public sectors. 7. Even cursory analysis of supply and demand figures reveals that there is an extreme shortage of brick and tile in Uganda. At the current rate of production, the gap between supply and demand will continue to widen, resulting in higher prices for these products to final consumers. A summary analysis of the current supply/demand situation is given in Table 2.  - iii - Table 2: BRICK AND TILE SUPPLY/DEMAND ANALYSIS (ptlIlons) Estimated Supply Supply/Demand Present 1987 e 100% Present Gap I 100% Supply/Demand Product/Scetwwlo Demand Capacity 1/ Supply Capacity Gap Br ickis Low Case 3S0 5B 23 292 327 Optimistic Case 1,821 58 23 1,763 1,796 TIles Low Case 97 a 0.1 89 97 Optmlistlc Case "1 8 0.1 493 501 a/ Including six plants proposed for estabilshment. 8. Since various type of fuels are used to fire bricks, energy consumption has been determined in terms of cubic meters of stacked firewood equivalent for all fuels used, including coffee and rice husk. Total energy consumption in the bribck and tile industry is determined using this equivalency as 73,000 m of firewood per annum at present production rates. Approximately 91% of this energy demand is met by firewood as opposed to agricultural waste substitutes. 9. The significance of total wood demand by the industry may be realized by noting that production as a level to mect maximum forecast demand would require a hundred-fold increase in brick and tile output. Scaled by this factor and converted into solid wood equivalent terms, the implied future wood demand is 4,380,000 a . While the estimates are proximate, this is roughly 281 of annual woody biomass production in Uganda. Ignoring residential backlog still results in a forty-fold increase over present supply to meet annual demand, requiring some 1 of national wood biomass production at present industry energy efficiency. Proposed Measures to Improve Energy Efficiency 10. Energy consumption parameters demonstrate that there is up to a 9:1 variation in the energy efficiency of brick and tile manufacture in Uganda. The few small and medium scale production units are functioning at 20-25 percent of their installed capacities, and, in the case of small scale plants, are highly energy inefficient. Consequently, the traditional artisan brick producing units are furnishing the bulk (7 times the output of semi-mechanized plants) of Uganda's burnt bricks. Unfortunately, these artisan production units are also using the bulk of the energy in the form of fuelwood, which is leading to national concern over deforestation. The country can ill afford continuing inefficiencies  - iV - in brick and tile production at inadequate production rates. Yet, Uganda requires locally produced building materials to support any positive reconstruction effort. Possible energy solutions take two formst (a) Low-cost energy efficiency enhancements through improved kiln design, maintenance and operation; and (b) Substitution of available alternative fuels, especially agricultural residues, for firewood. 11. Artisan Producers. Artisan brick producers will remain the prime suppliers of brick to the residential andt often, the industrial and commercial sectors for the forseeable future. In view of the scale of future wood demand from this sub-sector and the magnitude of potential energy savings, a national dissemination/extension effort is warranted. A suitable program would incltue the following componentst (a) Research/Pilot Demonstration to test and adapt proposed energy conservation measures in optimized brick structure and composition, and improved kiln construction and firing; (b) Training to sustainably transfer the knowledge and potential benefits of the research component; and (c) Dissemination to ensure popularization of the improved techniques throughout Uganda. The first two make up the pilot phase activities which would be overseen by a steering committee sponsored by the Ministry of Energy and made up of interested governmental representatives. Assuming satisfactory results from the pilot phase, a 3 1/2 year country-wide dissemination program will begin. 12. The program should be targeted at traditional rural-based artisan brickmakers as well as those located in medium cities, rural towns and institutionally-sponsored integrated development programs. While the basic rationale for the effort is based on energy conservation, program goals should be extended to encompass the promotion of improved local materials and the upgrading of standards of basic building materials. Because of their extensive prior experience in training artisans for the construction industry in Uganda, it is recommended that the day-to-day implementation of the proposed program for upgrading artisan brick production methods be placed 'nder the supervision of the Kiteredde Construction Institute (KCI). Technical assistance, especially on administration and management aspects, should be provided to the KCI. 13. Small Scale, Semi-mechanized Producers. The small scale brick production units promise to be highly beneficial to the country's r..onstruction efforts. The semi-mechanized units require modest capital investment, can service specific markets without extensive transport costs and are of a scale that is relatively easy to manage. A program to address inefficlencies in management and fuel consumption while promoting pilot scale improved brick production is therefore recommended. Measures  include improved kiln draft control, replacement of1 manufacturing equip- ment, and provision of spare parts. 14. The proposed assistance to the small-scale brick production sector would also be coordinated by the steering committee, in close collaboration with other local agencies such as the Uganda Development Bank, that have some in-house capabilities to assist prospective small- scale brick makers on a number of critical tasks. Such tasks would includet (a) expediting 'clearing house' types of operations, related specifically to identifying and arranging the procurement from abroad of spare parts and other accessories for their equipment (i.e., to reburbish or retrofit their plants); and (b) completing project feasibility and appraisal studies in respect f ventures to retrofit individual plants. 15. Medium Scale Producers. Uganda Clay Works, Ltd., a parastatal organization, produces the best clay masonry units and the only clay roofing tiles in Uganda at a rate of fuel consumption that is on par with more mechanized European plants. The factory is well located to major markets and has an order backlog of six months. Nevertheless, the plant is three decades old with severe needs for renovation and spare parts. Due to interrupted electrical service and lack of transport and spares, the plant is operating at 30-40% of installed capacity and is undoubtedly at a production cost disadvantage from the full payroll being carried. 16. If and when foreign exchange becomes available through the economic recovery program, Uganda Clay Works should be placed high on the list of critical industries. The longer term goal should be to increase Uganda Clay's production capacity through the addition of another production line to produce preferentially for the public sector. Initially, technical assistance will be needed to define and substantiate the amount of spare parts required. In later phases, expertise will be required to study the feasibility of adding a new production line. Project Costs 17. Implementation of the recommended action plans is estimated to cost a total of approximately US$2,900,000. These costs cover: (a) Establishment and operation of a research and training/ dissemination program for the artisanal sub-sector; (b) Establishment of a revolving fund for provision of spare parts to the small scale producer sub-sector; (c) Pilot installation of an improved downdraft kiln at Kizubi Brickworks, and follow-on extension to four other small scale producers; (d) Feasibility evaluation of the addition of a new production line at Uganda Clay Works, Ltd.; and  - vi - (e) Provision of technical assistance to all th ee sb-sectors in kiln design and construction, firing techniques, fuel substitution, and enterprise management. About 701 of the total cost will be in foreign exchange and the balance in local currency. 18. In addition to these expenditures, the mission envisions in the longer term an investment of US$4 million for equipment, installation and technical services at Uganda Clays. The feasibility of the investment in the proposed new production line will be established in component (d) above. Project Benefits 19. Benefits of a project to improve the energy efficiency of Uganda's brick and tile industry take both direct and indirect forms. Efforts to improve energy efficiency through rehabilitation and training will have numerous spin-off benefits to the construction industry, such as reduced equipment down time and higher capacity utilization, increased operator skill levels, and improved overall management. These benefits should all favorably impact on productive efficiency, enhancing the industry's important role in supporting economic recovery. 20. The main quantifiable benefit of the proposed project is an expected major reduction in fuelwood demand by the brick and tile industry, both through gains in end-use efficiency and substitution of agricultural residues. The total fuelwood saviggs at present production levels is estimated as just under 40,000 m /year, fairly small in absolute terms relative to demand in the household sub-sector. However, given the great brick and tile supply/demand gap and the expansion potential of the industry, the 60Z economies achievable in the artisan and small scale sub-sectors are very significant. Project Justification 21. Artisan Sub-sector. Returns in the economic analysis shown in Table 3 are favorable for all but the most pessimistic brick production scenario, indicating ample justification for a national research and training/extension program targeted at artisan producers. 22. Small Scale, Semi-mechanized Subsector. Results of the economic analysis of the small scale producer component are also shown in Table 3. With returns averaging 20 percent across all kiln dissemination scenarios, the kiln replacemert program is similarly well justified.  - vii - Table 3: PROJECT ECONOMIC RATE OF RETURN Sub-Sector/Scenarlo EIRR (S) Artisan No growth In current production 7 10% annual Increase In years 6-20 15 20% annual Increase In years 6-20 22 Small Scale, Semi-mechanized Replacement of 1 kiln 21 Replacement of 5 kilns over 5 years 19 Replacement of 5 kllns over 3 years 19 Replacement of 5 kilns over 2 years 20 Source: Annex 17. Project Risks 23. The major project risks rest primarily in the artisan sub- sector. As with any national training and extension effort, implementation is subject to delay or failure to reach target populations. Renewed deterioration of the security situation could compound these difficulties. The risk is minimized through careful choice of implementing agents and use of a two-phased pilot/wide-scale dissemination approach to project scheduling and oversight. 24. The second major risk is failure to obtain anticipated energy savings. Especially in the artisan sub-sector, this could be the result of producers failing to follow technical advice and new techniques. However, purchased fuelwood makes up a substantial portion of brick and tile production costs, so there thus appear to be adequate incentives for adoption. In addition, the training/extension design incorporates in- field, community-level demonstrations in order to illustrate the new techniques under plausible operating conditions.  I. IN.RODUCTION Project Development 1.1 The availability of energy is an important determinant in Uganda's economic development, and measures for developing energy supply and managing demand need to be planned and implemented in order to prevent energy bottlenecks from restreining economic recovery. The 1983 Energy Assessment Report, prepared under the joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Assessment Program, outlined a number. of issues which needed to be addressed to enable the energy sector to play an effective role in the economic recovery of Uganda. l/ One of the issues was the need to improve energy efficiency of rural industries to alleviate the pressure on existing fuelwood resources. In 1984, a follow-up to the Energy Assessment carried out under the joint UNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) recommended that immediate steps be taken to improve energy efficiency in Uganda's brick and tile industry. 1.2 Following a request by the Ugandan Government, agreement was reached for an ESMAP technical. assistance and investment identification activity to: (a) assess fuelwood supply and consumption requirements in the country's brick and tile industry; (b) identify measures to improve energy efficiency in the industry focusing mainly on simple, inexpensive energy conservation measures; and (c) design a program of action to disseminate these measures on a nationwide basis. Funding for the ESMAP project was secured from UNDP country IPF resources, supplemented by internal ESMAP funds and in-kind contributions from the Government of Uganda (GOU). The Energy Department of the Ministry of Power, Ports and Telecommunications was designated as implementing agency. 1.3 An ESMAP mission consisting of a mission leader, a brick and tile production engineer and an extension specialist arrived in Kampala in mid-July, 1985, for a planned visit of four weeks. 2/ However, the mission's work was hampered by a worsening security situation and consequent restrictions on internal travel. The mission's activities had to be prematurely terminated and its members left Uganda as part of an official evacuation on July 31, 1985. 1.4 In order to complete the work of the above mission, a second ESMAP mission was fielded in September, 1987, with the cooperation of the 1/ Usanda: Issues and Options in the Energy Sector, Report No. 4453- UG, World Bank, July, 1983. 2/ The mission members were Messrs. Bernard Frueh (Mission Leader), J. Van der Velden (Consultant - Brick and Tile Production Engineer), and S. Davenport (Consultant - Extension Specialist)  2 - Ministry of Energy. 3/ The mission was able to successfully, both update and extend the findings of the 1985 visit during its three week stays This report thus represents the combined results of the original and follow-up missions. ObJectives 1.5 The overall goal of this 8SMAP activity is to identify and evaluate technically and economically feasible means for improving the energy efficiency of the brick and tile industry in Uganda. These measures include kiln and process modifications to reduce the consumption of fuelwood per unit product output, as well as substitution of low-cost agricultural residue fuels where readily available. Reduction of fuelwood demand would be expected to directly contribute to stemaing the erosion of Uganda's wood capital. In addition, as fuelwood supplies to the brick and tile industry are obtained at significant financial cost, energy efficiency gains should translate into greater production at lower cost. 1.6 Specifically, the activity aims to: (a) Identify the areas of concentration of brick and tile production as well as the organizational structure of this industrial subsector; (b) Estimate current and likely future levels of brick and tile production as well as the fuel requirements of the industry; (c) Assess the performance of the different type of kilns and firing techniques used in Uganda, especially to determine the scope for energy qavings; (d) Assess the scope for using alternative fuels on the basis of their adaptability to regional conditions and their economic and financial competitiveness; (e) Prepare an inventory of the various technical packages and managerial measures that could be used to improve the efficiency of energy use in brick and tile production; and 3/ The members of the mission which visited Uganda from August 31 to September 18, 1987 were Messrs. Reza Khonsary (Mission Leader), Jan van der Velden (Consultant - Brick and Tile Production Engineer), and Stanton Davenport (Consultant - Extension Specialist). The report was authored by Mr. Charles Feinstein (Energy Planner). Administrative support was provided by Ms. Evelyn Cortez-Pusco.  -3- (f) Formulate a financially and economically justifiedt program of action to improve the efficiency of energy use in the brick and the tile industries of Uganda. Scope 1.7 During the field work in Uganda, visits were made to a number of mechanized, semi-mechanized and artisan brick and tile production units in Kampala, Entebbe, Jinja, Tororo, Mbale, Luwero, Mpigi, Masaka and Arua. The mission liaised with representatives of the Ministries of Energy (MOE), Planning and Economic Development (MPD ), Housing and Urban Development (MMUD), Industry and Technology (NOIT), Cooperatives and Marketing (MCM), and Environmental Protection and Forestry (MOEPP). In addition, the mission briefed officials of international and non- governmental organizations operating in Uganda, and met with owners/managers of private enterprises. A complete list of persons and institutions contacted appears as Annex 1.  II. UlUUD National Economy 2.1 Uganda has substantial reserves of natural wealth, with especially favorable soils and climate for agricultural production and with a significant mineral base to support the industrial sector. At independence in 1962, Uganda's economy was strong, backed by excep- tionally skilled labor resources. The production of export crops, primarily cotton and coffee, was rapidly growing. The small industrial sector provided export and consumer goods, transport and communications were good, and an extensive hydroelectric-based electrification system was developed during the years just after independence. A steady annual CDP growth rate of 2Z was achieved until 1970. 2.2 The economy stagpated and per capita income fell in the suc- ceeding decade. Long years of neglect resulting from an inability to maintain and manage basic industrial, monetary and agricultural infras- tructures as well as the emigration of skilled manpower and expertise contributed greatly to accelerating the economic decline. The Ugandan economy also suffered greatly from the rise in international petroleum prices in 1973, and from the breakup of the East African Community in 1977. The period of decline reached its lowest point during the war in 1979, which resulted in widespread looting and in damage to the few remaining productive sectors of the economy. 2.3 In 1981, the GOU began a program to stabilize the economy by encouraging private investment, reviving agricultural and industrial productive capacities, and by reducing inflation. The strategy involved floating the Uganda Shilling (USh), introducing more realistic producer prices, dismantling the system of price controls, and returning nationa- lized industries to private ownership. Recovery programs were developed with the aim of increasing agricultural production and exports in part through this strategy and in part by targeting external assistance at the rehabilitation of the most promising sectors. These programs have been successful both in attracting foreign finance and in restoring the economy on an upward growth path. Energy Sector 2.4 During 1980, per capita energy consumption in Uganda is estimated to have been 0.35 toe, of which only 0.06 toe was commercial. 4/ This level of commercial energy consumption, while exceptionally low by world standards, is comparable to estimates for some 4/ Commercial energy is defined as all energy traded outside the subsistence sector.  other low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Energy use is concentrated in the household sector (802 of total energy and 372 of commercial energy in 1980). 2.5 Woodfuels account for 962 of Uganda's current energy consump- tion# including approximately 702 of commerc al energy. Current consump- tion is estimated to be around 18,t00,000 m of fuelvood equivalent, and is expected to rise to 27,500,000 m by the year 2000. 2.6 Growth of the woodfuel economy has precipitated the development of a number of discrete areas where woodfuels have become in short supply, most especiallvr in parts of West Vile, Soroti, Mbarara and Rakai districts. This trend is very likely to accelerate. Current annual production of woody biomass in Uganda is estimated to be around 15,600,000 m' of fuelwood equivalent; demand thus exceeds sustainable supply by around 17X. This picture is expected to change dramatically over the next 15 years. By the year 2000, demand for woodfuel is expected to exceed the 1985 sustainable supply by nearly 801. Of this estimated future demand, commercial woodfuels will account for 192 or 5,225,000 m3, compared with 14X in 1985. 2.7 Commercial woodfuels are used primarily by the urban domestic sector and by a number of agroindustries. The tea, tobacco and brick- making industries are greatly dependent on fuelwood for drying, curing, and burning their products, respectively. Aggregate demand by these industries totaled about 230,000 m (solid) in 1985. The ability of the tea, tobacco and brick and tile industries to expand may be severely constrained unless steps are taken on both the demand and supply sides.  -6- III. THE BRICK AND TILE INDUSTRY Structure Overview 3.1 Brick manufacturing methods in developing countries range from traditional artisan production units to medium-scale, capital intensive plants. The choice of brick making technology is mostly a function of market demand (i.e. scale and location of demand, and required or minimum acceptable quality standard), and availability and cost of investment funds and other inputs (labor, raw materials, fuel, transport, spare parts, etc.) associated with alternative production techniques. In Uganda, considering the scale and technique of production, the brick and tile industry could be classified into artisan, small-scale and medium- scale production units. Table 3.1 summarizes the production techniques used by the various producers, and the following paragraphs briefly characterize the three modes of production. Annex 2 provides a detailed description of the organizational structure of the industry. Table 3.1: CLASSIFICATION OF BRICK AND TILE INDUSTRY Number of Scale of Bricks/day Production (averaMe) a/ Process Used Market Area Artisan b/ 1,000 Hand-made, Rural villoges clamp-fired Small 10,000 Semi-mechanized Near towns Medium o/ 40,000 Mechanized, extruded, Near Industrial- wire cut continuous ized areas of ring kiln high demand a/ Annual production per unit depends on the number of days In operatlon considering weather conditlons and other constraints. b/ Artison producers are mojor suppliers of brick In Uganda. Cl Presently Uganda Clays Is the only medium scale brick and tile producer In Uganda. Source: Mission estimates.  -7- Artisan Producers 3.2 Artisan brick makers produce about 1,000 bricks/day and are located close to the clay sources, and within a short distance of the brick markets. This reduces the transport cost and concomitantly the amount of fuel used in transport. The production method used is highly labor intensive and the investment requirements are low, consisting of simple, locally available implements. Furthermore, when climatic conditions impede building construction, the brick production ceases. Although artisan production is particularly appropriate for rural and peri-urban areas, due to the severe shortage of building material in Uganda artisan brick producers are supplying the majority of fired bricks to the principal urban centers. Small-scale, Semi-mechanized Producers 3.3 Small-scale, semi-mechanized brickmakers produce about 10,000 bricks/day. The production method used is relatively sophisticated although the machinery employed, especially the brick extruders, is old. These production units are usually located close to citiis and have the potential to yield higher productivity per worker than the artisan units. Medium-scale, Mechanized Producers 3.4 In contrast to the artisan and small-scale brick production, medium-scale brickworks necessitate the capital investment of millions of dollars, mostly in foreign exchange for import of sophisticated produc- tion machinery and control systems. The complex equipment requires skilled management and trained production personnel. Employment associated with mechanized techniques of brick production is often very smell relative to the traditional methods, although these producers have the potential to manufacture substantial quantities of higher quality bricks at lower unit energy consumption. Brick and Tile Demand Components 3.5 The demand for building matarials (e.g. bricks and tiles) is more complex than simply pressure from population expansion. Knowledge of Uganda's recent history emphasizes the importance of demand for bricks and tiles caused by a large backlog in housing stock, plus reconstruction and maintenance of damaged and neglected buildings. Simultaneously, after years--- of stagnation, the construction industry has enormous building material requirements for new construction, reconstruction and maintenance in the industrial, commercial, clerical, private and public sectors.  -8- Estimation 3.6 Working from a number of housing sector documents, the mission assembled disaggregated estimates of brick and tile demand which incorporate assumptions of future economic growth and recovery rates in the building industry. In order to indicate the range of uncertainty in the assessments, the results are presented in two basic scenarios: Low Case and Optimistic Case. Detailed calculations supporting the range of estimates are given in Annex 3 and summarized in Table 3.2. Table 3.2: ESTIMATED BRICK AND TILE DEMAND (millions) 1985 Demand Component 1985-87 Population Residential New 1985 Demand 1987 Product/Scenario Growth ae Backlog b/ Construction c/ Sub-Total Growth d/ Demand Bricks Low Case 123 150 27 300 50 350 Optimistic Case 123 1,078 360 1,561 260 1,821 Tiles Low Case 34 41 8 83 14 97 Optimistic Case 34 297 99 430 71 501 a/ Urban = 5.0S; Kampala - 4.0%; National n 3.2%. b/ Optimistic Case: Hlgh brick/tile housing density and backlog absorbed over one year. Low Case: Low brick/tile housing density and backlog absorbed over five years. cl Optimistic Case: New construction, reconstruction and maintenance * 30% of residentlal demand. Low Case: New construction, reconstruction and maintenance a 10% of residential demand. d/ At 8% pa.a Source: MUKD; UN/Habitat; UNOP; USAID; World Bank; Mission estimates. Brick and Tile Supply overview 3.7 Industry capacity and actual supply estimates are summarized in Table 3.3. The combined installed annual capacity of the one medium- scale, mechanized factory and six small-scale, semi-mechanized manufac- turing units is 34.5 million bricks and 1.2 million tiles per year. Due to a variety of constraints, including lack of spare parts, transport delays, electric power disruption, lack of maintenance and run-down kiln  -9 - equipment, the actual combined production of these saen producers is nearer the range of 3.2 million bricks/year and 0.12 million tiles/ year. The combined annual capacity of six production units proposed to be established is 23.4 million bricks and 6.8 million tiles. 3.8 Excluding extremely small, ad hoc sun-dried brick and tile pilot programs sustained by international organizations, the informal or artisan brick production is estimated to supply 20 million low quality bricks/year. Table 3.3: ESTIMATED BRICK AND TILE SUPPLY Production at Full Capacity by Type of Fuel Capacity Coffte Rlce Production Capacity Utilization Woodfuel Husk Husk (tonnes) (tonnes) (S) (tonnes) (tonnes) (tonnes) Msdium-scele, mechanized: Uganda Clays 8,750 36,500 24 - 36,50 - Small-scale, semI-mechanized: Butendi 6,6,000 C(6,000 00- Kiblimba C 6,000 a/ C 3,000 -- 3,000 Kizubi ( 6,000 b/ C 3,000 3,000 - Mutanga Clays Ltd. 6,000 (18.6 6,000 - - Pan African C 6,000 C 6,000 - - Universal Clay Works 6 000 6.000 - Subtotal 6 _/ 3 18.6 24,000 9 000 3,000 Artisan 117,000 NWA N/A 117,00 - _ Total 132,440 72.500 d/ N/A 141.000 45,500 3,000 a/ Kibisba Is assumed on the average to use 50% fuelwood and SOS rice nIusk* b/ Kizubi Is assumed on the average to use 50S fuelwood and 50% coffee husk. S/ Total production of the small-scale, semi-sechanized producers. d/ Doe not Include capacity of artisan producers since their capacity Is flexdble and could be Increased easily. Source: Mission estimates. Artisanal Production 3.9 Artisan brickmakers produce handmade weatherproof brick and blocks suitable for the walls of one-story houses. Operations are  - 10 - widespread, and artisan bricknaking can be found throughout Uganda wherever there is a demand. Production is therefore elastic, with no set "capacity" or capacity factor. 3.10 The solid bricks and blocks are shaped into various sizes using bottomless wooden molds. The length of the bricks varies from 220 to 295 mm, the width from 100 to 150 mm and the height from 65 to 130 mm. Weight thus varies from 2.5 to 7.6 kg per piece. The consistency of the brick dimensions in a lot is usually poor. 3.11 The air-dried (green) bricks are firnd in non-permanent, hznd- stacked clamps (see Annex 4) varying in design and size and containing from 30 to 180 tonnes of bricks. The fuel is firewood, mainly Eucalyptus. To save as much wood as possible, firing periods are kept short and firing temperatures low. For this reason, the quality level of bricks and blocks fired in the clamp kilns is rather poor. Generally the dry compressive strength is lower than 8 N/mm2, and especially the bricks within 300 mm from the outside surfaces of the clamp are of very low quality and partly not even weatherproof. The proportion of these very poor quality bricks is strongly dependent on the size of the clamp and varies from approximately 25X up to 45%. Due to the low quality of the clamp kiln products, the average breakage rate to the construction sites is about 17%. Small Scale, Semi-mechanized Production 3.12 The small scale, semi-mechanized production units manufacture a large variety of solid and perforated clay bricks and in some works also a U