Colloquium on disasters, sustainability and development : a look to the 1990s

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ACKIVOREEDGEMEMS The editors would like to acknowledge the contribution of a number of people who helped to make the Colloquium. and production of this volume possible. We would like to express our gratitude to Kenneth Piddington for his support of this initiative. John English and Surinder Deol were instiumental to the success of the project. Administrative support for the Colloquium and this volume was provided by Marietta Visaya, Olivia McNeal, Mariatu Morton, and Cheryl Francis. We also would like to express our appreciation to the moderators, panelists, and Colloquium attendees who provided the impetus for the Colloquium. Photo credits: Edward Echeverria, Michele lannacci, Alcira Kreimer, Robert H. Nooter, and the World Bank Bangladesh Field Office. CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY v CONTRIBUTORS ix PART I. INTRODUCTION "Disasters, Sustainability, Development: A Look to the 1990s" 1 Alcira G. Kreimer PART II. OPENING SESSION Introductory Remarks to the Colloquium 17 Kenneth W Piddington PART III. PANEL DISCUSSIONS Panel 1. International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction Summary of the Panel Proceedings 26 "Background to the IDNDR" Stephen Rattien 29 "Formation of National Committees for the IDNDR" Richard E. Hallgren 34 "Planning for International Participation in the Decade" Philippe L Boulle 38 Note by the Panel Moderator Everardo Wessels 42 Panel 2. Vulnerability: Communications and Technology Summary of the Panel Proceedings 46 "International Disaster Communications" David Webster 50 "The Role of NGOs in the Reduction of Vulnerability" Charles Sykes 56 "Communications in Relief: Armenia, Bangladesh, and Sudan" Frederick M. Cole 59 "Technology Transfer and Disasters" Francisco R. Sagasti 62 "Natural Disaster Mitigation: World Bank Operational Policy Issues" Alberto Harth 66 Comments by the Panel Moderator N. Eik A Arrhenius 72 Panel 3. Regional Efforts for Disaster Reduction Summary of the Panel Proceedings 76 "Response Efforts in Health Emergency Preparedness" Dr. Jose Luis Zeballos 79 "Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Latin America and the Caribbean" Stephen 0. Bender 88 "Satellite Remote Sensing Applications for Natural Hazard Preparedness and Emergency Response Planning" Glenn S. Morgan 93 Comments by the Panel Moderator Stephen F. Lintner 112 Panel 4. Country Efforts to Prevent and Mitigate Natural Disasters Summary of the Panel Proceedings 116 "Recovery and Mitigation Efforts in Bangladesh and Nepal" Patrick E. McCarthy 120 "Prevention and Mitigation in Mexico" Felix A Jakob 127 "Mitigation Efforts at the Municipal Level: The La Paz Municipal Development Project" Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard 132 Comments by the Panel Moderator Thakoor Persaud 136 PART IV. CONCLUDING SESSION Concluding Remarks to the Colloquium Kenneth W Piddington 141 APPENDICES Appendix A. Colloquium Program 147 Appendix B. List of Participants 151 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Over the past 20 years, extreme in development, natural disasters, and the natural events have been responsible for environment to explore the lessons learned the death, injury, or loss of home for nearly from recent efforts in disaster prevention, one billion people, and they have caused mitigation, response, and reconstruction, unparalleled destruction in several and to discuss strategies for reducing the developing countries. Based upon devastating impact of natural hazards in catastrophic experiences of the past, a new the 1990s. The symposium was divided understanding of natural disasters is into four panel discussions on (i) the emerging. Patterns of development and International Decade, (ii) the role of human settlement are increasingly being technology and communications in linked to the severity with which extreme vulnerability, (iii) regional disaster natural events strike. Environmental preparedness activities, and (iv) country- degradation is being held responsible for specific disaster reduction projects and exacerbating the impact of droughts, floods, programs. Several common themes hurricanes, landslides, and wildfires. And emerged from the discussion at meeting. scientists are now discussing the potential consequences of global warming in terms Colloquium participants lauded the of a higher incidence of catastrophic International Decade as a milestone in the natural events. If disasters are to be history of humanity's attempt to cope with avoided in the future, human settlement disasters. The Decade signifies a patterns will need to be modified and fundamental shift in global perception environmental degradation ameliorated. about calamities, a recognition that the And if development policies and projects traditional, reactive approach to dealing are to be sustainable over the long term in with emergencies has been ineffective and disaster-prone countries, then the physical that a proactive strategy, to anticipate and structures and the economy, in general, of prepare for natural hazards, must be these countries must be made resilient and adopted. Through the Decade, a mandate their citizens must be taught disaster to assist in disaster reduction has been prevention and mitigation measures. adopted in which the world can mobilize in a unified effort. The Colloquium The designation of the 1990s by the speakers emphasized that preparations for Unit d Nations as the International the Decade must be flexible enough to Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction adapt to changing global conditions, and (IDNDR) is a testimony to the growing that Decade activities must be worldwide concern about natural disasters multidisciplinary to reflect the and the recognition that calamities are encompassing nature of disaster reduction. preventable to a large extent. With Other key approaches for the Decade were resourcefulness and commitment to disaster urged: reduction, extreme natural events do not necessarily have to become catastrophes. Disaster mitigation and environmental management must be The "Colloquium on Disasters, further integrated into development policy Sustainability, and Development: A Look and introduced early in the project to the 1990s," held at the World Bank on preparation cycle. To assist in this June 6, 1989, brought together specialists endeavor, more research needs to be v devoted to developing disaster reduction invest in measures to minimize techniques and tools, and to making the vulnerability. Single-focus development linkages between disaster reduction and mandates are being transformed into broader concerns of global consequence, multidisciplinary development strategies such as North/South issues. that integrate environmental management and disaster reduction measures. New Outreach programs must be applications for existing technologies are established to sensitize decision makers being created. And in several sectors, and the general public about the benefits traditional emergency response mechanisms of protecting their resource base against are being replaced by forward-looking natural hazards. (Both groups typically measures that anticipate and prepare for underestimate the long-term economic extreme events. Most important, however, consequence of a disaster.) disaster-prone countries are beginning to embark upon their own long-term programs Mechanisms to disseminate to lower vulnerability. disaster reduction information and technologies to developing countries must To fulfill one of the Decade's main be created and implemented. objectives -- the establishment of disaster reduction programs worldwide -- In addition to these initiatives, the Colloquium participants agreed that experts identified a number of impediments concerted cooperation at the international that need to be redressed for disaster level is of paramount importance. reduction planning and implementation to However, the primary focus will need to be effective. The unpredictability of rest at the national level with individual disasters - when and where they strike and governments and their citizens. For this with what magnitude - often creates a purpose, national IDNDR committees are psychological barrier to action and makes being established. Several speakers said planning for an extreme event difficult. that these newly established committees Several speakers also identified fatalistic will be in a unique position to design, attitudes toward natural disasters and the promote, and coordinate disaster reduction characteristic short-term focus of politicians programs for their countries' specific needs. as often diverting attention away from The committees also will be able to link longer-term, disaster reduction concerns. international Decade activities with Better analytical tools for integrating these community-level projects, and to act as unpredictable events into development liaison representing their countries in policy and projects need to be created. In international forums. addition, in the current climate of fiscal restraint, public investment in disaster Whether at the local, national, or reduction mechanisms often is hampered global level, disaster reduction programs by the stiff competition for scarce will continue to rely heavily on resources. technological innovation for designing seismic resistent structures, tracking the Despite these hurdles, Colloquium path of hurricanes, or communicating participants expressed their optimism that effectively during relief operations. disaster reduction programs for the Although many of the technologies International Decade will be successful if required for disaster reduction are current trends in the field continue. The available today, speakers agreed that designation of the International Decade gaining access to them for risk itself reflects a new awareness and drive management has been problematic. And by the event's 155 adopting nations to in cases where the technology is available vi for disaster reduction purposes, it often planning can support traditional disaster has been inappropriately applied. management practices. Participants suggested that The scope and evolving nature of overcoming problems of inaccessibility to the disaster management field emerged as technology for disaster management could speakers discussed prevention and be accomplished in several ways. The mitigation initiatives in individual countries, financial constraints associated with regions, and international organizations. planning for and monitoring unpredictable events can be circumvented if disaster The World Bank's disaster program reduction functions as one of many integral has undergone profound changes since the components of existing systems. In institution's beginnings, as a financier of addition, public and private ventures could the post-World War II reconstruction effort be better coordinated in order to eliminate in Europe, to current preparations for redundant applications of technologies, and freestanding disaster reduction loans. The conversely, to fill in the gaps where Bank's program essentially has mirrored needed. As technology continues to the world's changing perception about advance, the experts predicted, less calamities. Disaster reconstruction, once expensive systems with wider application solely devoted to the rehabilitation of will be made more accessible. physical structures, today addressed the broader, social and economic Regarding the appropriateness of considerations of disaster recovery. Indeed, technology transfer, the speakers the Bank has gone beyond traditional emphasized that a delicate balance must disaster reconstruction projects and is be achieved. On the one hand, high-tech beginning to integrate disaster reduction solutions and state-of-the-art expertise are measures into non-emergency loans and to essential in certain instances to reduce open a dialogue with its member countries vulnerability. On the other hand, local on these matters. communities have traditional disaster response mechanisms for coping with At the regional level, organizations calamities. The key to international are coalescing and formulating their own disaster reduction assistance must be to disaster reduction programs. In two of buttress local capacity and these traditional the sectors examined at the meeting - response mechanisms when appropriate, health and planning -- a multidisciplinary through non-governmental organizations if approach is being adopted. Technical and need be, and to promote, when financial resources are being pooled, appropriate, the transfer of disaster government officials trained, and disaster reduction technologies in a form that is mitigation priorities and programs compatible and sensitive to local practice. established. Satellite remote sensing was Throughout the world, several examined during the Colloquium as one disaster-prone developing countries are such state-of-the-art technology that can energetically launching new initiatives to make a significant contribution to lower cope with hazards. The Colloquium vulnerability and augment preparedness in explored four diverse case studies in which developing countries. The technology's disaster reduction programs and projects ability to provide accurate and timely are successfully being designed and information for pre-disaster planning, implemented. disaster monitoring, post-disaster assessment, and in general development In Bangladesh, pervasive floods and vii cyclones have been responsible for some mitigation program has been introduced in of the most catastrophic disasters of this a Bank-financed project for municipal century. In an effort to grapple with its development. Even in the case of a poor hazards, Bangladesh is embarking upon an city at high risk, the La Paz project aggressive, far-reaching disaster mitigation suggests that disaster mitigation programs program, which, as currently envisioned, can be economical and effective. includes the construction of flood-control works and the development of a In conclusion, the International comprehensive disaster preparedness plan. Decade and the Colloquium case studies In Bangladesh, and elsewhere, natural of country, regional, and international disasters are an integral force in the efforts illustrate the momentum being perpetuation of poverty, and therefore, generated for disaster reduction at all disaster reduction measures must be levels of the public sector. The 19hOs can central in the country's economic be viewed as a testing ground for development strategy. implementing disaster prevention, mitigation, and reconstruction programs. The Colloquium also examined As the 1990s approach and predictions of three World Bank-sponsored reconstruction global warming and a higher frequency of projects in Nepal. These innovative extrame natural events continue to be projects in the education, housing, and issued, and as populations continue to highway sectors take advantage of the burgeon, it is incumbent upon disaster- opportunity afforded by the recovery prone developing countries and the donor process to advance disaster prevention and community to integrate the lessons learned mitigation. Specifically, the disaster from the case studies of the 1980s for reduction components aim to promote development to be effective and seismic resistent construction and timber sustainable in the future. conservation, and to establish a post- monsoon damage monitoring system. In the case of Mexico, since the 1985 Mexico City earthquake, the government has undergone a significant shift in attitude toward natural disasters, changing from fatalistic notions of disasters as acts of God to a commitment toward preventing and mitigating calamities. In conjunction with the Mexico City earthquake recovery effort, the government designed and began to implement a long- term, countrywide disaster reduction program. In La Paz, Bolivia, smaller-scale hazards strike often and create extensive physical damage and loss of life over .a period of time. Like many Third World cities, La Paz is poor, lacking basic infrastructure in many areas. Despite seemingly intractable obstacles, an affordable and cost-effective disaster viii CONTRIBUTORS N. Erik A. Arrhenlus Felix A. Jakob Principal Adviser on Science and Technology Senior Urban Planner Vice President of Sector and Policy Research Latin America and Caribbean Country The World Bank Department The World Bank Stephen 0. Bender Project Chief Alcira G. Kreimer Natural Hazards Project Senior Environmental Specialist Organization of American States The Environment Department The World Bank Philippe L Boulle Director of the New York Liaison Office Stephen F. Lintner United Nations Office of the Disaster Relief Senior Environmental Specialist Coordinator (UNDRO) Europe, Middle East and North Africa Environment Division The World Bank Frederick M. Cole Assistant Director of Asia and the Pacific Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance Patrick E. McCarthy U.S. Agency for International Development Senior Financial Analyst Asia County Department The World Bank Richard E. Hallgren Executive Director American Meteorological Society, and Glenn S. Morgan Chair, U.S. IDNDR Committee Environmental Officer The Environment Department The World Bank Alberto Harth Operations Adviser Central Operations Department Thakoor Persaud The World Bank Senior Housing Specialist Latin America and Caribbean Technical Department The World Bank ix Kenneth W. Plddington Charles Sykes Director Assistant Executive Director The Environment Department CARE The World Bank David Webster Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard Director Project Officer International Disaster Communications Latin Americo and Caribbean Country Project Department The Annenberg Washington Program The World Bank Northwestern University Stephen Rattlen Everardo Wessels Deputy Executive Director Director Commission on Engineering and Technical Latin America and Caribbean Techical Systems Department National Research Council The World Bank Francisco R. Sagasti Dr. Jose Luis Zeballos Division Chief Medical Officer Strategic Planning and Review Department Pan American Health Organization The World Bank X � е � � „ . .И �. ,� , ' � � , , � ; �, �� ��� � 1�� � . • �.j � •г / � ' . � . � " �� �•� � .� . . • . �� о �. _ �: . �з ��,� .�� �! � � ,-�s. � : � S • �• i� �уΡ. � '�г` � - � � -г� - �`�,.�'_ �, , � (� � � � .__ � ((�о'��� я � а. � � � � �' `�,� �'' ., � � tr• � �� • � �'� �'л'h'� �,�т. • �'� � � �'j � • .'"� �е_iY - � , .г, А ;. . _ .t� �,`э . ^S�S � � � ��, �s,7 � �r •у.' ! ' Ум���{ �, � . , ... ' . >�' �•� ь � �'� 1 �' .��1, � ii+ • . , `� ' �'� � � „ � а'ь °� - • w ��• ул • r s�$ ,� ,� � �11....�� � • � � � � , ,�= ;R у � яG�j � ' � `�kп�И��� }' �'w � ��уΡr V � � • • `� ' +� � , t i •�. w�, (� � � �v , � � `�•.!� ,. 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J � � • � � � � а �+ _ �M1 _ . �+, ; � > г 1. : .. $. ti ... . , , - - ' -.>. ..tt�� . . �а� - _ �:� � � � � �L'",: с - � � , а: ��� � / ,,,� � � � �М .^г•�'^ ,,�,�` , . +� :р• �; 1•� �� � � _ ��'` � '� `� � м • •.� • . ` *уц 1 _� ^ ' L��� _У• .. ^ ^, �_ � � мl• - # ���'�.• 1� � � � �� � � Disasters, Sustainability, and Development: A Look to the 1990s Alcira Kreimer Senior Environmental Specialist The Environment Department The World Bank On June 6, 1989, the Environment Department and the Human Resources "Eareme events am Wegral Development Division of the World Bank components of the envbvnment. sponsored a symposium in Washington, However D.C. to promote the exchange of ideas , the eVent of damage and experiences on disasters and develop- that rewift from tlwm is to a ment. Approximately one-hundred people significant degree a ftinction of the with a variety of expertise in different types decisions made, activities of disasters represented disaster-related undaWket-4 and technokgkv private and public agencies, research ufi&xd &idng the pimess of centers, and academic institutions at the &vdopment In many cafe4 ca* Colloquium. kaespro&xed by a careme event The varied backgrounds and are preventable experiences of the participants provided a broad spectrum of opinions and perspectives on the main issues under discussion. The Colloquium served as a A large number of World Bank- forum for discussing issues relevant to member countries are prone to major disaster-prone developing countries. disasters. They have to cope with difficult short- and long-term problems of Alcira G. Kreimer is a Senior Environmental Specialist with the World Bank's Environment Department, where she provides advice on policy, research, and operations for disaster prevention, mitigation, and recovery. She is the coordinator of the Banles Task Force on Natural Disaster Reduction and the organizer of the Colloquium. She is the Bank representative to the U.N. inter-agency working group for the IDNDR. Ms. Kreimer has worked on reconstruction efforts in Mexico, El Salvador, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Dominica, and Guatemala. She has served on the Bank's advisory committees for the Bangladesh, Jamaica, Sudan, Ecuador, and Madagascar disaster reconstruction projects. Priof to joining the Bank, she was in charge of projects on international disaster assistance at the U.S. National Research Council and she served as a consultant on disasters and development for the United Nations Commission on Human Settlements and the United Nations Environment Programme. Formerly a faculty member at MIT, Mrs. Kreimer holds a Ph.D. in environmental planning from the University of California at Berkeley, a postgraduate degree in urban planning from the Centre de Recherche d'Urbanisme in Paris, and a master's degree in architecture from the University of Buenos Aires. 1 development arising from the vulnerability instances. As poorer countries have of their communities, economies, and become increasingly vulnerable to natural environment to the disruptions of natural disasters, and as the Bank has been disasters. The goal of the "Colloquium on confronted with the need to respond to a Disasters, Sustainability and Development: growing number of reconstruction projects, A Look to the 1990s" was to identify key the organization has placed greater effort sustainability issues arising in disaster- on preventive measures. prone countries. Since the Bank was created in 1947, Bank-financed activities in response there have been approximately 100 to major emergencies have risen in recent operations targeted for reconstruction after years. During the 1980s, emergencies various disasters, such as earthquakes, created by natural disasters reached a floods, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions, and critical mass. They included earthquakes war (see Annex II for a summary of Bank- in Malawi, Armenia, Mexico, Colombia, financed recovery projects). The very first Nepal, and Ecuador; a volcanic eruption four Bank operations were targeted for in Colombia; hurricanes in Jamaica, reconstruction and included assistance to Mexico, Madagascar, and Fiji; a forest fire France, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and in China; a drought in India; and floods in Denmark after the Second World War. Bangladesh, Sudan, Brazil, and Pakistan. Currently, the Bank is financing- recovery Vulnerability is increasing as development activities in, among other countries, processes continue to ignore risks posed Jamaica, Pakistan, Sudan, Brazil, by natural hazards. Bangladesh, Mexico, Mozambique, China, and Nepal. In light of the growing threat of natural disasters, it is fortunate that the Specific aspects concerning the United Nations has designated the 1990s Bank's current activities in natural disasters as the International Decade for Natural were presented at the meeting and Disaster Reduction, or the IDNDR included a discussion on disaster (Resolution 42/69, February 25, 1988, see prevention and mitigation within a general Annex 1). The fundamental objective of framework of environmental concerns (K. the Decade is to reduce, through concerted Piddington); operational policy concerns international action, the loss, damage, and in natural disaster mitigation (A. Harth); economic disruption caused by natural prevention, mitigation, and recovery disasters. activities in countries (F. Jakob, P. McCarthy, M. Plessis-Fraissard, T. Persaud); and efforts to use remote sensing Background on World Bank Activities in the assessment of disaster risk (G. Morgan). As a development institution, the World Bank's principal objectives are to encourage the growth of productive Disasters and Development activities and resources in less developed countries and to assist member countries Extreme events are integral in raising their standard of living and components of the environment. However, improving labor conditions. Because the extent of damage that results from disasters significantly impact development, them is to a significant degree a function the Bank has been actively involved in of the decisions made, activities providing post-disaster recovery and undertaken, and technologies utilized rehabilitation assistance in a nuriber of during the process of development. In 2 many cases, the costly losses produced by to normalcy). an extreme event are preventable. Moreover, vulnerability is increasing in Demands on institutions can be many countries as urban agglomerations significant and translate into destabilizing spread onto high-risk areas, inappropriate forces in the public sector. In most cases, technologies are utilized, architectural major disasters are unusual for the designs and construction ignore disaster impacted countries. National and sectoral risk, and strategies that link scientific and agencies may face difficulties in technical research to management and accommodating to the overwhelming decision making are missing. requirements needed for reconstruction. In most countries, financial arrangements to mobilize resources for recovery works "Reducing the potential for future include funds from extraordinary taxes, losses from naWul cakanities is temporary increases in tariffs, bond issues, contingency funds from the national the most appropriate mechanism budget, and reallocation of priorities in to improve the sustainabiliy of the national budget. That is, losses are development" redistributed at the national level. In addition, funding for relief and reconstruction may be available from local and international donations, international In making projections for natural and bilateral development organizations, hazard risk in the next millennium, we and NGOs. In some cases, disaster have to assume that environmental systems recovery also may require the immediate will be further strained by urban and mobilization of manpower and materials industrial growth, higher demand for in the affected region, including the services, and the deficient operation and diversion of construction workers from maintenance of infrastructure. These non-affected areas of the country, the trends indicate there is an urgent need for reallocation of equipment to disaster prevention and mitigation reconstruction, the reduction of exports of mechanisms. construction materials (e.g., timber and cement), and the postponement of non- Disasters have an impact on emergency construction activities. development by requiring the diversion of funds from national, state, and municipal budgets, as well as from development Disaster Impact and Sustainability projects, to the restoration of facilities and infrastructure. Post-disaster needs include Reducing the potential for future requirements posed by direct and indirect losses from natural calamities is the most losses, and by severe institutional demands. appropriate mechanism to improve the In addition to human life, losses include sustainability of development. As the damage to homes, businesses, and world enters the 1990s, we face a dilemma. industries, and deterioration of Action is needed to ensure that disaster governmental revenues from a F:aaller tax prevention and mitigation become integral base. Indirect economic costs include a components of development. In this sense, decline in income and employment from an important aspect of Bank-financed damage to industrial and commercial recovery projects implemented in the last facilities and agricultural production, and few years has been the inclusion of disaster from time-related losses (e.g., the cost reduction measures. After disasters, both imposed by the period required to return governments and affected communities are 3 committed to the adoption of measures to work in post-disaster recovery has been minimize vulnerability. Prevention and enhanced by its extensive experience in mitigation mechanisms included in Bank- rebuilding economic, social, and physical financed projects (e.g., Mexico, Nepal, systems after disasters. As mentioned Bangladesh, and China) have comprised (i) earlier, the Bank's assistance, particularly the implementation of measures to in the past five years, has been geared not strengthen the capability of institutions to only to rebuilding lost assets and facilities, deal with risk reduction, mitigation, but also to reducing vulnerability of human preparedness, and response; (ii) the settlements and economies to natural development of instruments, such as disasters. It is obvious that policies and building codes and land-use plans, to avert activities geared toward strengthening local future losses; (iii) the retrofitting of capabilities to reduce losses can only vulnerable buildings (e.g., schools and contribute to the achievement of sound hospitals); (iv) the evaluation of insurance development objectives and sustainable needs in reference to specific civil works; growth. and (v) the development of educational and training programs for disaster The Colloquium was a step toward prevention, mitigation, and response. discussing the very pressing issues we are confronting now. In addition to the The critical constraints imposed by discussion on specific efforts at the World natural disasters on development processes Bank, there wa ample opportunity to indicate that efficient vulnerability discuss the International Decade for reduction measures are needea in regional Natural Disaster Reduction (P. Boulle, R. strategies, country focus, sectoral work, and Hallgren, S. Rattien and E. Wessels); to projects. In the past few years, the Bank emphasize the important linkages between has undertaken the task of assisting communications, technology, and disaster-prone member countries in efforts vulnerability (D. Webster, F. Sagasti, F. to reduce their vulnerability to natural Cole, E. Arrhenius); to underline the calamities, not only through recovery substantial contribution of NGOs in operations, but also through regular disaster reduction (C. Sykes); to highlight projects. Examples of those efforts include the significance of regional efforts in projects to control locust (Algeria), disaster reduction (J. Zeballos, S. Bender improve disaster preparedness and S. Lintner); and to explore country (Bangladesh), mitigate natural hazard risk efforts to prevent and mitigate natural (Mexico), provide assistance at the hazards (F. Jakob, P. McCarthy, M. Plessis- municipal level in efforts to control Fraissard and T. Persaud). landslides and floods (Bolivia), improve disaster planning and prevention At this time, the actions and capabilities in the power sector activities being undertaken by the (Colombia), and reduce the susceptibility international community are encouraging. of forest resources to natural disasters such A concerted international effort will be as flooding and landslides (Indonesia). greatly enhanced by the Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. Although the next decade will require perseverance and In Lieu of a Conclusion: The Task Ahead cooperation among the numerous local, national, and international actors, their The losses from disasters amount effort will undoubtedly be a worthwhile to a significant burden to governments, one. institutions, and populations in less developed countries. The World Bank's 4 Annex 1. Resolution Adopted by the General Assembly 42/169. International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction The General Assembly. Coniderdng also that, among disasters of natural origin, drought and Recalling its resolution 3345 (XXIX) decertification are resulting in enormous of 17 December 1974, in which it requested damage, particularly in Africa, where the the Secretary-General to take appropriate recent drought threatened the lives of more measures to provide facilities co-ordinated than 20 million people and uprooted multidisciplinary research also at the millions of others, regional level aimed at synthesizing, integrating and advancing existing Recognizing that the effects of such knowledge on the relationships between disasters may damage very severely the population, resources, environment and fragile economic infrastructure of development, in order to assist Member developing countries, especially the least States, particularly the developing developed, land-locked and island countries, and the organizations of the developing countries, and thus hamper United Nations system in their efforts to their development process, cope with the complex and multidimensional problems related to this Recalling the report of the field in the context of social and economic Secretary-General on the work of the development, Organization, particularly the section, concerning natural disasters and the merits Noting with appreciation the of proposals that have been made to important contribution made by the World stimulate international study, planning and Commission on Environment and preparations on this subject over the next Development, as reflected in its report, decade under the auspices of the United which calls for new national and Nations, international approaches in dealing with the various factors affecting the Also taking note with appreciation environment, including natural disasters, of the report of the Secretary-General concerning the existing mechanisms and Considering that natural disasters, arrangements within the United Nations such as earthquakes, windstorms (cyclones, system for disaster and emergency hurricanes, tornadoes, typhoons), tsunamis, assistance and co-ordination, floods, landslides, volcanic eruptions, wildfires and other calamities of natural Recognizing the responsibility of origin, have claimed about 3 million lives the United Nations system of promoting worldwide in the past two decades, international co-operation in the study of adversely affected the lives of at least 800 natural disasters of geophysical origin and million more people and resulted in in the development of techniques to immediate damages exceeding $23 billion, mitigate risks arising therefrom, as well as for co-ordinating disaster relief, preparedness and prevention, including prediction and early warning, 5 Convinced that concerted co-operation in the field of natural disaster international action for the reduction of reduction, and to take a decision at its natural disasters over the course of the forty-third session on the content and 1990s would give genuine impetus to a modalities of United Nations participation series of concrete measures at the national, therein after having considered the report regional and international levels, of the Secretary-General referred to in paragraph 9 of the present resolution; Recogniing that the primary responsibility for defining the general goals 4. Deides that the objective of and directions of efforts undertaken in the this decade is to reduce through concerted framework of an international decade for international actions, especially in natural disaster reduction and for developing countries, loss of life, property implementing the measures that would damage and social and economic disruption result from the activities of the decade lies caused by natural disasters, such as with the Governments of the countries earthquakes, windstorms (cyclones, concerned, hurricanes, tornadoes, typhoons), tsunamis, floods, landslides, volcanic eruptions, Considering that the concept of a wildfires and other calamities of natural global programme >r natural disaster origin, such as grasshopper and locust reduction is predicated on collaborative infestations, and that its goals are: efforts among culturally and economically diverse nations, together with relevant (g) To improve the capacity of organizations of the United Nations system each country to mitigate the effects of and concerned national and international natural disasters expeditiously and non-governmental organizations, including effectively, paying special attention to scientific and technological institutions, assisting developing countries in the establishment, when needed, of early 1. Recognizes the importance warning systems; of reducing the impact of natural disasters for all people, and in particular for (h) To devise appropriate developing countries; guidelines and strategies for applying existing knowledge, taking into account 2. Recognizes further that the cultural and economic diversity among scientific and technical understanding of nations; the causes and impact of natural disasters and of ways to reduce both human and (g) To foster scientific and property losses has progressed to such an engineering endeavours aimed at closing extent that a concerted effort to assemble, critical gaps in knowledge in order to disseminate and apply this knowledge reduce loss of life and property; through national, regional and world-wide programmes could have very positive (d) To disseminate existing and effects in this regard, particularly for new information related to measures for developing countries; the assessment, prediction, prevention and mitigation of natural disasters; 3. Decides to designate the 1990s as a decade in which the (s) To develop measures for the international community, under the assessment, prediction, prevention and auspices of the United Nations, will pay mitigation of natural disasters through special attention to fostering international programmes of technical assistance and 6 technology transfer, demonstration projects, the co-ordination of international efforts and education and training, tailored to concerning the activities in support of the specific hazards and locations, and to objective and goals referred to in evaluate the effectiveness of those paragraphs 3 and 4 above, thus enabling programmes; each Member State to benefit from the experience of other countries; 5. Requests the Secretary- General, co-operation with the appropriate 9. Reuiests the Secretary- organizations of the United Nations system General to report to the General Assembly and relevant scientific, technical, academic at its forty-third session on progress made and other non-governmental organizations, in the preparations outlined above with to develop an appropriate framework for particular emphasis on defining the attaining the objective and goals referred catalytic and facilitating role envisaged for to in paragraphs 3 and 4 above and to the United Nations system. submit a report thereon to the General Assembly at its forty-fourth session through the Economic and Social Council; 6. Recommends that, if necessary, extrabudgetary resources be provided for the preparation of the above- mentioned report and considers that, for this purpose, voluntary contributions from countries, international organizations and other organizations are highly desirable; 7. Calls upon all Governments to participate during the decade for concerted international action for the reduction of natural disasters and, as appropriate, to establish national committees, in co-operation with the relevant scientific and technological communities, with a view to surveying available mechanisms and facilities for the reduction of natural hazards, assessing the particular requirements of their respective countries or regions in order to add to, improve or update existing mechanisms and facilities and develop a strategy to attain the desired goals; 8. Further calls upon Governments to keep the Secretary- General informed of their countries' plans and of assistance that can be provided so that the United Nations may become an international centre for the exchange of information, the storing of documents and 7 Annex 2. World Bank Lending Operations Natural Disaster Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Projects 1947- 1989 The Environment Department June 6, 1989 Code Country Project Title Disaster YearO (L) Bangladesh Third Flood Rehabilitation Project Flood FY1989 (R) Costa Rica Atlantico Agricultural Development Project Hurricane (R) India Water Supply and Sewerage Project Drought (R) India Gujarat Urban Development Project Drought (L) Jamaica Emergency Reconstruction Import Project Hurricane (R) Jamaica Water Supply and Sewerage Technical Assistance Hurricane (R) Jamaica Fourth Power Project Hurricane (R) Mexico Urban Transport Project Hurricane (L) Mozambique Urban Rehabilitation Project Civil War (L) Nepal Municipal Development and Earthquake Earthquake Emergency Housing Reconstruction Project (L) Nepal Earthquake Emergency Schools Earthquake Rehabilitation Project (L) Pakistan Flood Damage Restoration Project Flood (L) Sudan Emergency Flood Reconstruction Project Flood (R) Sudan New Haifa Irrigation Rehabilitation Project Flood (R) Sudan Blue Nile Pump Schemes Rehabilitation Flood (R) Sudan Agricultural Services Project Flood (R) Sudan Gezira Rehabilitation Flood (R) Sudan Third Highway Project Flood (L) Disaster reconstruction/recovery loan. (R) Non-emergency loan reallocated following the disaster for recovery efforts. (1) Year indicates fiscal year of Board approval. (NP) Loan not processed. 8 Code Country Project Title Disaster Year () Bangladesh Second Small Scale Flood Control, Drainage Flood FY1988 and Irrigation Project (L Bangladesh Second Flood Rehabilitation Project Flood (L Bangladesh Rural Roads and Markets Improvement Flood and Maintenance Project (L Bhutan Second Forestry Development Project Pest Epidemic (L Brazil Rio Flood Reconstruction and Prevention Project Flood Landslide (L Chad Road Reconstruction Project Civil War () China Da Xing An Ling Forest Fire Rehabilitation Forest Fire (R) Dominican Republic N.A. Cyclone (R) Ecuador Low-Income Housing Project Earthquake (L) El Salvador Earthquake Reconstruction Project Earthquake (R) El Salvador Fourth Education Project Earthquake () India Drought Assistance Project Drought (L Mozambique Second Rehabilitation Credit Civil War (P Nepal Road Rehabilitation Project Flood (P Nepal Mahakali Irrigation II Project Flood (P Sri Lanka Emergency Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Project Civil War (P Yemen, AR Sana'a - Hodeidah Road Rehabilitation Project Flood () Chad Highway Maintenance Project Civil War FY1987 (L Chad Agricultural Rehabilitation Project Civil War Drought () Ecuador Emergency Petroleum Reconstruction Project Earthquake (L) Madagascar Cyclone Rehabilitation Project Cyclone () Mozambique Energy Technical Assistance and Rehabilitation Civil War (P Yemen, PDR Fifth Highway Project Flood 9 Code Coutry Project Title Disaster Year (R) Bangladesh N.A. Cyclone FY1986 (L) Brazil Northeast Urban Flood Reconstruction Project Flood (L) Chile Santiago Water Supply and Sewerage II Project Earthquake (L) Chile Valparaiso Water Supply Reconstruction Project Earthquake (L) Colombia Second Irrigation Rehabilitation Project Volcano (R) India N.A. Flood (L) Madagascar Third Railways Project Cyclone (L) Mexico Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Earthquake (R) Mexico Rainfed Agricultural Development Project Earthquake (R) Mexico Second Urban and Regional Developt,nt Project Earthquake (R) Mexico Medium Size Cities and Sinaloa Water Project Earthquake (R) Mexico Export Development Project Earthquake (R) Mexico Lazaro Cardenas Industrial Port Project Earthquake (L) Vanuatu Multi-Project Credit Cyclone (L) Bangladesh Flood Rehabilitation Project Flood FY1985 (R) Bangladesh First Drainage and Flood Control Project Flood (R) Bangladesh Second Drainage and Flood Control Project Flood (R) Brazil Highway Project Flood (R) Chile N.A. Earthquake (R) Ecuador N.A. Flood (L) Ethiopia Drought Recovery Program Drought (R) Kenya N.A. Drought (L) Madagascar Cyclone Rehabilitation Project Cyclone (R) Madagascar Second Education Project Cyclone (R) Madagascar Water and Sanitation Project Cyclone (R) Madagascar Sixth Highway Project Cyclone (L) Mozambique Rehabilitation Program Civil War Drought (L) Sudan Drought Recovery Program Drought (L) Swaziland Cyclone Rehabilitation (Roads) Project Cyclone 10 Code Country Project Title Disaster Year (R) Argentina NA. Flood FY1984 (L) Colombia Popayan Region Earthquake Reconstruction Earthquake (R) Colombia Third Water and Sewerage Loan Earthquake (R) Colombia Urban Development Loan Earthquake (L) Uganda Third Reconstruction Credit Civil War (NP) Yemen, AR Earthquake Reconstruction Earthquake (L) Ghana First Reconstruction Import Credit Civil War FY1983 (R) Honduras NA Flood (R) Nicaragua NA. Flood (L) Peru Higher Agricultural Education Project Earthquake (R) Peru Lower Piura Irrigation Rehabilitation Project Flood (R) Peru Eight Highway Project Flood (R) Peru Petroleum Production Enhancement Project Flood (L) Uganda Agricultural Rehabilitation Project Civil War (L) Uganda Rehabilitation of the Education Sector Civil War (L) Uganda Post and Telecommunication Rehabilitation Civil War (L) Yemen, PDR Roads Flood Reconstruction Project Flood (L) Dominica Road Maintenance and Rehabilitation Project Hurricane FY1982 (L) Uganda Industrial Rehabilitation Project Civil War (L) Uganda Second Reconstruction Program Civil War (NP) Algeria El Asnam Earthquake Reconstruction Earthquake FY1981 (L) Fiji Cyclone Reconstruction Project Cyclone (L) Haiti Post-Hurricane Agricultural Rehabilitation Hurricane (L) Mauritius Urban Rehabilitation and Development Project Cyclone (L) Nicaragua Industrial Rehabilitation Credit Project Civil War 11 Code Country Project Title Disaster Year (P Uganda Technical Assistance Credit Civil War (L Zimbabwe Manufacturing Rehabilitation Imports Program Civil War (W Dominican Republic Urgent Import Requirements Project Hurricane FY1980 (L) Dominican Republic Emergency Road Reconstruction Project Hurricane (W Dominican Republic Second Road Maintenance and Reconstruction Project Hurricane (W Nicaragua Agricultural and Industrial Rehabilitation Civil War (L Nicaragua Urban Reconstruction Project Civil War (R) Nicaragua N.A. Civil War (L Uganda First Reconstruction Credit Civil War (L Yugoslavia Earthquake Rehabilitation - Highways Earthquake (L Yugoslavia Earthquake Rehabilitation - Port of Bar Earthquake (L Yugoslavia Earthquake Rehabilitation - Railways Earthquake (L Lebanon Reconstruction Project Civil War FY1978 (R) Lebanon N.A. Civil War (L) Romania Post-Earthquake Construction Assistance Earthquake (L Guatemala Earthquake Reconstruction-Education, Transport Earthquake FY1977 (L Guatemala Earthquake Reconstruction-Housing Earthquake (I) Pakistan Flood Damage Restoration Project Flood (L Romania Agriculture Flood Recovery Project Flood FY1976 (L Romania Industry Flood Recovery Project Flood (L Somalia Drought Rehabilitation Project Drought 12 Code Country Project Itle Disaster Year () Western Samoa Highway Project Flood FY1975 (L) Burkina Faso Drought Relief Fund Drought FY1974 (L) Chad Drought Relief Fund Drought (L) Ethiopia Drought Areas Rehabilitation Project Drought (L) Iceland Fishing Harbors Rehabilitation Project Volcano (L) Mali Drought Relief Fund Drought (L) Mauritania Drought Relief Fund Drought (L) Niger Drought Relief Fund Drought (L) Pakistan Flood Rehabilitation Program Credit Flood (L) Senegal Drought Relief Fund Drought (L) Sudan Southern Region Agricultural Rehabilitation Civil War (L) Bangladesh Coastal Rehabilitation and Cyclone Protection Cyclone FY1973 Civil War (L) Bangladesh Imports Program Credits Cyclone Civil War (L) Nicaragua Earthquake Reconstruction Project Earthquake (L) Nicaragua Second Managua Water Supply Project Earthquake (L) Nigeria Rehabilitation Program Loan Civil War FY1971 (L) Peru Road Reconstruction Project Earthquake (NP) Bangladesh Coastal Reconstruction Project Cyclone FY1970 (L) Nigeria Highway Rehabilitation Project Civil War (L) Nigria Transport Rehabilitation Project Civil War 13 Code Country Project Tie Disaster Year (L Yugoslavia Key Projects Program War FY1953 (L) Yugoslavia Power, Mining and Industry Reconstruction War FY1952 (L) Denmark Post-War Reconstruction Loan War FY1948 (L) Luxembourg Post-War Reconstruction Loan War (L Netherlands Post-War Reconstruction Loan War (P France Post-War Reconstruction Loan War FY1947 14 Part II. Opening Session The time has come to view natural hawds as a world pmblem, but one that scientfic and technological advances now provid a unique opporunity to address 77e establishment of an Intem natiol Decade for Natural Hazard Reducion, beginning in 1990 would be a potent fst step in rlducing the impacts of natural hazwds through coodi~ated researc, data gatherng and information sharr Frank Press, President of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Introductory Remarks to the Colloquium Kenneth W. Piddington Director The Environment Deparment The World Bank Good morning. I am Kenneth Piddington, Director of the Environment "We hope that thmugh international Deparnent in the World Bank, and it is act w can prr toe decion my pleasure to welcome you to the acinwecnpsstoedcin Cl oquium on Disasters, Sustainability, m i disasterpone countres and and Development: A Look To 1990s," seg the idea that prevention is not an which we are co-sponsoring with the add-on or luxry -- it is a necessity to Human Resources Development Division ensure sustainabiliy, of the Bank. I am pleased that we have a magnificent response to this occasion. If biography, I pondered on the words you look at the list of participants, you "colloquium" and "conservation." I was will see how broad the representation is reminded of a story when I first took over at the Colloquium. I would like to the Department of Conservation in New welcome, in particular, the NGOs who are Zealand. with us today. We set special store in the Bank to our discussions with the NGOs I arrived at a remote location in and their direct involvement in our work. New Zealand to discuss policies relating It is also significant that members from to the national park. I was checking into other multilateral and bilateral agencies, the hotel when the clerk said, "Oh yes, academic institutions, and research bodies Mr. Poddington." I thought, that's very have been able to join us. To all of you normal (my name gets distorted very I say, Welcome! easily). The clerk continued, "...from the Department of Conversation." And I Because I am interested in thought to myself, why should I correct languages, as you may see from my that, conversation is not a bad name for Kenneth W. Piddington is the Director of the Environment Department at the World Bank since April 1988. Mr. Piddington comes from a background as a career diplomat in the New Zealand foreign service from 1959 to 1976. He has been Vice-Chair for OECD's Committee for the Environment, New Zealand's Commissioner for the Environment, and the country's Director-General of Conservation. As the New Zealand delegate to numerous international environmental conferences and committees, Mr. Piddington has worked on issues related to the Antarctic, marine protection, and environmental impact assessment. He received his master's degree in modem languages and social anthropology from Auckland University, New Zealand. 17 a department. I think that I am allowed at the opening stages of this gathering to indulge When we are dealing with the in very brief philosophy. I am often environment, many of the issues we are intrigued by the distinction, which I regard handling call for "conversation," that is, as purely artificial, between a "man-made real discussion together. I think the choice disaster" (notice it is never woman-made) of the word "colloquium," which is a slightly and a "natural disaster." more formal Latinate version of "conversation," is very appropriate. When we work at risk assessment and risk reduction in the environmental I mention this because I have a area, we take a very different app-oach. sincere belief that in our approach to We study a specific site an. its problem solving in the environmental area, characteristics. Then, we analyze t e we need far less confrontation and much interactions between the human population more conciliation and consensus. I believe, and the natural factors which are at play. for example, at the global level, we are I would like to share with you two brief dealing with a number of very significant cameos from my own work in this area. issues, where nation-states are tending to work through familiar political blocs. But The first example relates to a the environment knows no political blocks; liquified petroleum gas (LPG) plant, which there is no reason why negotiations on is sadly relevant in view of the gas CFCs or atmospheric gases should be explosion in the Soviet Union this week. conducted on the basis of rich countries We were dealing with the installation of a versus poor countries. I think it is a great LPG storage plant in Wellington, New shame that this is tending to happen. Zealand, which was located next to a residential area surrounded by a hillside Ladies and gentlemen, we are living of pine trees and with only one escape and working at a time when there is an route. unprecedented degree of political interest in the environment. Naturally, I follow this The experts in risk assessment who with some interest. If there are any were called in by the LPG company Australians in the room, I am intrigued to computed their statistics and designed their learn not only that the Australian models and concluded that a resident had government has turned green, but that the a greater chance being knocked over by a Greens actually hold the balance of power motor car on this one escape route than in Tasmania. being consumed in a gas explosion. And indeed, since a considerable proportion of Through the work of the Bank with the population smoked more than twenty the Part One and Part Two members, we, cigarettes a day, the risk of mortality from as professionals, are aware of governments smoking was significantly higher. However, responding to the clear need for greater that sort of talk does not convince the coherence in the way we deal with population. The local people would never environmental issues and for greater accept the statistical analysis of the experts. application of the considerable knowledge which is available to deal with them. A (May I say parenthetically that substantial amount of that knowledge is sometimes in these matters the experts represented in this room today in respect are their own worst enemies. I remember to the particular topic we are discussing. a toxicologist who, when asked about the toxic effects of PCBs, replied, "Well, 18 anything will kill you if you have enough noticed the very first drop on the roof; it of it.") was so important to them in terms of the risk they perceived. "I have a sincere belief that in our As a footnote to the story may I approach to problem solving in the tell you that the hillside has indeed since appometlaegw ed a s caught fire, not because of a malfunction environmental area, we need far less in the LPG plant, but because a passing confrontation and much more motorist threw away a lit cigarette. No conciliation and consensus. I believe, one was injured, partly because evacuation for example at the global leve4 we are procedures were rehearsed intensively after dealing with a number of very the construction of the plant. significant Lisu, where na -sts The second story on risk perception are tending to work through familiar relates to a risk management seminar I political blocs. But the environment attended in Sydney, Australia. The subway knows no poitical blocks; there is no in Sydney, which goes underneath the city reason why negotiations on CFCs or buildings, is not the modem silent type as atmospheric gases should be conducted in Washington, but rather a noisy beast. on the basis of rich countries verus Every seven minutes, the proceedings were countries. punctuated by a strong vibration. Together poor cwith all the New Zealanders in the room, I stopped functioning with each vibration. Because I live on a fault line, I cannot sit Let me come back to my people on top of a subway without thinking of an with the LPG plant. I went to a meeting earthquake. at the end of the summer. It was an unusual summer, perhaps a harbinger of I wanted to mention these change in our local climate. We did not perceptions of risks which are very have rain for two months. As the drought important and greatly underestimated by continued, the risk of fire on the hillside the experts. I would also stress the which was covered with pine trees interaction between population and the increased. The resentment and anxiety of environment. Take the latest floods in Sri the people about the LPG plant increased Lanka. In this example, we are dealing at the same time. They did not separate with questions of deforestation in Sri the difference between the risk from fire Lanka and throughout the developing and the risk from the LPG plant -- it was world. Is that particular flood connected the totality of risk for the place they lived to the removal of forest cover? I do not in which was important. know. However, I can make a general supposition that to some degree, the In the middle of our meeting, I intensity of a flood and its impact has a suddenly sensed a change in mood. It was relationship to the activities of the a feeling of relief. You could feel the population, either in that locality or further tension disappearing. I thought to myself, up in the catchment area. "Well, we have not done anything to bring about this change. We did not tell the Returning to earthquakes, when I population that the LPG plant would not was involved in earthquake relief efforts be built." What shifted the mood was the in Peru, questions involving architecture coming of rain. Everyone in the room and design, building location, and security 19 margins were absolutely fundamental in potential areas for future work on terms of the effects and deaths which mitigation. occurred. Among the participants, we have a number of agencies whose focus is "Our experience with recovery after specifically on disaster relief. I should majordisast enin developing countriew mention at the outset that the Bank does obwin one direon forfiatum re - not participate in immediate relief efforts, such as the provision of emergency health the need to increase the resilience in or search and rescue. We think that there those countries that are disaster prone are a number of national and international through the adoption of disaster aid organizations better equipped for this mitigadon andpreparednesprograms. work than our organization. That is not to Pevention is critiaL say that we disregard the priorities in terms of relief. We think that our efforts after disasters are better focused on the restoration of the social, physical, and In other words, in relation to natural economic infrastructure. This is an area disasters, there is a great deal which can we will discuss in greater detail in the be done. Of course, that may involve the presentations. The demand for resources question of resources and the expense of for relief and reconstruction after disasters taking the extra precautionary measures, is indeed substantial. Our experience with particularly in developing countries. recovery after major disasters in developing countries points in one direction for future The Environment Department work: the need to increase the resilience considered that it would be useful at this in those countries that are disaster prone stage to share our experiences with you through the adoption of disaster mitigation through the Colloquium. I want to thank and preparedness programs. Prevention is Alcira Kreimer in particular, and her critical. colleagues, who have lengthy experience in these matters, for preparing with such It is most fortunate that the United care the presentations for today. Nations has designated the 1990s as the International Decade for Natural Disaster The Colloquium is part of an Reduction. I am very pleased that we ongoing program of activities on disaster have a colleague from the U.N. here to prevention, mitigation, and recovery, which address that issue. We hope that through is placed within the overall context of international action, we can press those environmental concerns. In the decision makers in disaster-prone countries Department, we convene the in-house Task and sell the idea that prevention is not an Force on Natural Disaster Reduction which add-on or luxury -- it is a necessity to is intended to assist in the development of ensure sustainability. Within that disaster reduction strategies. In addition philosophy, we would argue in the Bank to the Colloquium, we organize periodic that where there is an extra cost in order meetings to discuss critical issues to achieve sustainability, we should be concerning disaster prevention. looking at the ways in which that cost can be met rather than discarding it Today's agenda is an ambitious one. offhandedly and saying it cannot be We hope that we can discuss both past afforded. experience in coping with disasters and 20 Ladies and gentlemen, I could dwell at lengths on the central word of the title of the Colloquium, "sustainability". I feel, however, that it is much more important to enter into the substance of the program. I am looking forward to listening to what the presenters have to offer us. I want to finish by saying that the Bank has been making important efforts to reduce vulnerability. We have an emergency policy lending program which recommends the inclusion of disaster prevention and mitigation in emergency recovery operations. I believe that the Environment Department is well-placed to take the conclusions from an event such as this one, along with our colleagues in the country departments and regional environment divisions, and introduce those factors into the ongoing policy dialogue we have with our borrowing countries. With those thoughts, I would like to repeat my welcome to you. I am looking forward to the outcome of this Colloquium. At the end of the day, I will attempt to draw some of the threads together and bring to light some of the pointers for future policy. Thank you very much. 21 Part III. Panel Discussions "t is a matter of intemational concern that Bangladesh, one of the poorest and most densely populated countries in the wod is peiodically devastated by catastrophic f~oos. We stress the ugent need for effeciv4 coondinated action by the interational community, in support of the Government of Bangladesh, in order to jmd solutions to this major problem which are technically, fnancially, economically and environmentaffy sound. -- Group of Seven, Economic Declaration of the Paris Summit, July 16, 1989 0-1 , J . . . . . ... .. ... Panel 1. The International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction Stephen Rattien, The National Research Council Richard Hallgren, IDNDR U.S. National Committee Philippe Boulle, United Nations Disaster Relief Coordinator Everardo Wessels, moderator, The World Bank ~ C Summary of Panel Proceedings Growing worldwide attention on Mr. Rattien also explained that disaster prevention and mitigation is being interest in establishing the Decade was generated, in part, by the U.N.'s keen for several reasons. First, the designation of the 1990s as the scientists and policy makers believed that International Decade for Natural Disaster a coordinated, international program could Reduction. The first panel of the day set rally around the cause of disaster the stage for the Colloquium, providing reduction. Conversely, if no programs to background on the Decade and its contain the negative impacts of extreme objectives, and identifying critical events were enacted, disasters would development and policy issues that are become increasingly severe. Also, critical to the Decade's goals. technological resources could be harnessed for disaster reduction, and the policy The first speaker, Stephen Rattlen makers and development planners could of the National Research Council, reach a consensus on the issue as disaster chronicled the development of the global mitigation would become increasingly movement for the Decade, from its genesis linked to sustainable development. Second, as a proposal by Dr. Frank Press, President although the incidence of natural disasters of the U.S. Academy of Sciences, to its could never be completely eliminated, passage as a U.N. General Assembly significant reductions in their frequency resolution, to current deliberations on the and impact was considered a feasible and event's eventual form and spirit. positive option to pursue. Support for an activity to reduce the one-million plus lives Soon after, the proposal by Dr. lost every decade to natural calamities and Press, the National Academy, public and to halt the massive disruption of economic private organizations, academic institutions, progress in developing countries was and the United Nations under the greeted with enthusiasm by the leadership of the representatives of Japan international community. and Morocco began to explore the possibility of endorsing and participating Mr. Rattien concluded by outlining in the Decade. By the fall of 1987, a U.N. the organizational structure for resolution co-sponsored by 93 nations administering the Decade. The U.N. has formalized the International Decade. The called for establishing national committees resolution called for "...a decade in which as the primary implementing bodies. the international community, under the These national committees would involve auspices of the United Nations, will pay individual countries in the global effort special attention to fostering international while also allowing each nation to design cooperation in the field of natural disaster a disaster reduction program for its reduction." Mr. Rattien said the Decade individual needs. Soon after the General would stimulate cooperation among the Assembly resolution was adopted, Mr. mosaic of involved actors - national Perez de Cuellar, U.N. Secretary General, governments, scientific, health, and NGO appointed a 25-member Ad Hoc Group communities, the public and private of Experts to recommend how the Decade sectors, and the media - to achieve an could be best implemented. integrated approach to vulnerability reduction. Richard Hallgren, Chairman of the 26 U.S. National Committee for the Decade on disaster prevention and mitigation, and a member of the Ad Hoc Group of bringing donors and benefactors together Experts who advised the U.N. Secretary for concerted action, and promoting General on the Decade applauded the research and development for disaster International Decade for providing the reduction technology and procedures. impetus and framework in which disaster reduction could be achieved on a global Mr. Hallgren concluded by basis. He also expressed his expressing optimism that the U.S. National encouragement that with the momentum Committee would be one of the many generated by the Decade, available already-established committees to produce scientific and technological knowledge and implement an effective disaster would be adapted into operational form reduction program. for the purpose of risk reduction. Philippe Boulle of the New York Mr. Hallgren presentation largely Office of the United Nations Disaster focussed on the function and critical role Relief Coordinator (UNDRO), wrapped national committees will assume in the up the first panel by reflecting upon global effort to reduce vulnerability. As institutional and policy issues confronting entities representing sovereign countries, the International Decade. the national committees are uniquely positioned to build bridges between Mr. Boulle said that the Group of organizations and to coordinate and pool Experts' approach emphasize flexibility resources into regional ventures. and multisectoralism. This approach would Moreover, the national committees could establish a comprehensive program to effectively bring disaster mitigation to the include NGOs and the public and private community and local levels. He sector. However, Mr. Boulle said, for the emphasized that if the goal of global Decade's resources to be constructively disaster reduction is to be attained, allocated and for its activities to be developing nations and their national successfully administered, a number of key committees would need financial and issues need to be resolved. technical assistance, and that governments and local populations must possess the commitment to reduce vulnerability within Broad qualitative and their countries. quantitative targets need to be defined in order to operationalize Mr. Hallgren explained that the the Decade and assess its national committees have three principal performance. goals: to promote the Decade's activities within their countries; to advise their * Widespread educational programs governments on appropriate risk reduction are needed to change the public's programs and policies; and to serve as the fatalistic belief that natural disasters linkage between country, regional, and are inevitable and uncontrollable. international efforts. In this regard, he These educational efforts also need recommended a series of actions for each to convince public officials that committee to take, which included reduction programs can be cost- developing a national plan for Decade effective and politically popular. activities, coordinating policy and legislation to minimize vulnerability, * The scientific community must publicizing and increasing public awareness develop technologies that are 27 resistant to natural hazards and appropriate for developing-country settings. * Disaster response needs to be more directly linked to prevention and mitigation. * The Decade's overall framework for instituting disaster reduction needs to take into account the international economic and political milieu and make the linkages between the lowering of vulnerability and other relevant issues of global consequence, such as environmental degradation. * The majority of the Decade's activities needs to focus on the local and national level if global disaster reduction is to be assured. Mr. Wessels, Director of the Latin America Technical Department of the World Bank, the panel moderator, concluded the session and commented on the relevance of disasters on long-term economic development and the importance of correcting the course of disaster management. In a subsequent note, Mr. Wessels elaborated on the importance of the International Decade and the participation in it by individual governments. 28 Background to the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction Stephen Rattien Deputy Executive Director Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council The concept of a cooperative international program to reduce natural "U.N. delegates were enthusiastic hazards was first presented by Dr. Frank about supporting an activity that Press, President of the U.S. National cold suppoging anc atiever that Academy of Sciences, in a speech at the could tangibly reduce the over one Eighth World Conference on Earthquake milon lives lost per decade and Engineering in 1984. In his keynote that could halt the disruption of address to the International Association economic progress that disasters for Earthquake Engineering (IAEE), he bring to developing nations." proposed an International Decade for Natural Hazard Reduction, beginning in 1990. After the conference, as copies of the speech circulated, international interest Interest in establishing the Decade began to build, not only with respect to continued to grow and led to the reducing the toll from earthquakes, but appointment of the NRC Advisory from other natural hazards as well. In Committee on the International Decade response to the first wave of interest, an ad for Natural Hazard Reduction, whose hoc National Research Council (NRC) charge was to evaluate the potential for group developed an internal National such an effort and how best it might be Academy report, 'Toward a Less realized. The Committee, chaired by Hazardous World," that pointed to the George Housner of the California Institute moral underpinning of such a Decade and of Technology, was composed of natural spurred further NRC actions. hazard experts from many disciplines and was drawn from academia, the private Stephen Rattlen is the Deputy Executive Director of the Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems of the U.S. National Research Council (NRC), the research arm of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. He has principal oversight over the Division of Natural Hazard Mitigation. Mr. Rattien served as Vice President for Technology Development and Transfer at the Center of Innovative Technology; and President of DHR, Inc., a contract research firm. He held earlier positions at the National Science Foundation and the White House Council on Environmental Quality, the University of Pittsburgh, and Argonne National Laboratory. Mr. Rattien received his bachelor's degree in electrical engineering from The Cooper Union, his master's degree in Biomedical Engineering from the University of Rochester and his Ph.D. in Regiona! "conomic Development Planning from Cornell University. 29 sector, and governmental agencies. In with the assistance of Hans Einhaus and addition to its American membership, the Philippe Boulle, had the opportunity to Committee. benefited from the input discuss this activity with Jean Ripert, then received from experts in Canada, Mexico, the U.N. Director-General for and Japan. Development and International Economic Cooperation. Mr. Ripert became a The Committee concluded that champion of the Deade, as did Secretary- there was widespread interest in General Perez de Cuellar, who establishing the Decade, noting that the subsequently discussed the concept in scientific and technological community depth with Dr. Press. believed the time was right for a coordinated international program on hazard reduction and, conversely, that if "The Group of Expers views the nothing was done, natural disasters would Decade with enthusiasm seeing it become increasingly severe. The Committee's report, Confronting Natural as a relatively low cost activity that Disasters, stated that there was growing will yield tangible near-term confidence that important advances in beneftt Theprincipalfocus must coping with nitural hazards were within inevitably be at the national leve:4 reach of every nation if a global effort was but regional and international mounted. While it is too optimistic to cooperaton is critical in sharing expect that natural disasters can be com- copeation is etc ls ing pletely eliminated during such an effort, a nwld ag delpmg strong program can markedly reduce contries." injuries, deaths, and property damage due to natural hazards. In the summer of 1987, in parallel with the completion of the Housner United Nations Involvement Committee report, informal discussions at the U.N.'s Economic and Social Council In parallel with the efforts of the (ECOSOC) elicited support .for the Decade Committee, there was a growing concept, particularly when the link was international dialogue among a number of made between disaster mitigation and the people engaged in science and technology enhanced probability of sustained economic research relating to natural hazards, as development. U.N. delegates were well as among others engaged in hands-on enthusiastic about supporting an activity disaster mitigation activities. Among them that could tangibly reduce the over one were Mr. Hans Einhaus, Director and million lives lost per decade and that could Deputy to the United Nations Disaster halt the disruption of economic progress Relief Coordinator (UNDRO), and Mr. that disasters bring to developing nations. Hidehiko Sazanami, Director of the United The delegates from Japan and Morocco, Nations Centre for Regional Development Ambassador Taniguchi and Counsellor Ben (UNCRD). They and others convinced Dr. Moussa, ultimately became leading forces Press of the feasibility of the Decade and for the Decade. In the fall of 1987, they suggested that the United Nations might spearheaded a U.N. General Assembly serve as a coordinating body for this resolution, cosponsored by 93 nations and activity. passed by consensus, calling for the 1990s to be, "...a decade in which the As a result, George Housner and I international community, under the met with a number of U.N. officials and, auspices of the United Nations, will pay 30 special attention to fostering international is critical in sharing knowledge and co-operation in the field of natural disaster assisting developing countries. Further, reduction...." the Decade must be a cooperative endeavor of the U.N. system and outside The Secretary-General subsequently experts, with the inclusion of experts and called for the establishment of national organizations of many types throughout committees and, indeed, a number of the world, including the scientific, techno- countries, including Canada, China, Italy, logical, and health communities; business Japan, Mexico, and Morocco, already have and industrial groups; voluntary national committees. As of June 1989, the organizations; donor groups; the media; number had reached 30. The U.S. and others. National Committee, chaired by Dr. Richard Hallgren, will meet for the first As stated in the Group's appended time on June 21 to 22 here in Washington. Tokyo Declaration, the Decade is both a moral imperative and an opportunity for the world community, in a spirit of global International Ad Hoc Group of Experts cooperation, to use the considerable existing scientific and technical knowledge After the General Assembly to alleviate human suffering and enhance resolution, the Secretary General appointed economic security. Fatalism is no longer a 25-member international Ad Hoc Group acceptable; it is time to bring the full force of Experts to advise him on how best to of scientific and technological advancement implement the Decade. The Group, to reduce the human tragedy and economic chaired by Dr. Press, recently completed loss from natural disasters. We must take its work at a meeting in Tokyo, where it an integrated approach to disaster issued the attached Tokyo Declaration. reduction, bringing new emphasis to pre- Dr. Press presented the Group's report to disaster planning, preparedness, and the Secretary-General at a ceremony in prevention, while sustaining our post- New York City on June 1, and it was well disaster relief capabilities. Our received by the Secretary-General, as well humanitarian efforts must be broadened as by the U.N. Steering Committee for the to encompass disaster-resistant investment Decade (which has membership from the as well as timely warnings in which people key participating U.N. system at risk receive, understand, and act upon organizations). It will be presented to the the information conveyed. Group of 77 nations meeting at ECOSOC this July. Ultimately, it is hoped that the If all goes well, the number of General Assembly this year will approve nations having established national the detailed plan for Decade committees will soon expand greatly and implementation so that the international a unique organizational structure involving program can begin promptly in 1990. expertise both within and outside the United Nations will be created. National While the Group of Experts' report programs will take shape, with a distinctly was prepared for the Secretary-General broader orientation than has existed and must await his release, it is fair to historically, and cooperative programs will note that the Group views the Decade be created among professionals and experts with enthusiasm, seeing it as a relatively from diverse fields. We should also see low cost activity that will yield tangible joint activities among nations as we seek near-term benefits. The principal focus to tackle problems and exploit must inevitably be at the national level, opportunities common to all. but regional and international cooperation 31 Annex 1. Tokyo Declaration on the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction April 11, 1989 We, the International Ad Hoc disciplines engaged in disaster reduction. Group of Experts for the International We will soon submit our report to the Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, Secretary-General, but today we wish to hereby declare the following: call to the world's attention our common conviction that millions of lives can be Throughout history, mankind has saved, hundreds of millions protected from lived under the threat of natural disasters. tragedy, and hundreds of billions of dollars Millions of lives have been lost in recent saved as a result of the International decades, with untold human suffering and Decade. property damage as well as setbacks to development efforts. Indeed, the situation Since our first meeting in Geneva is growing worse. Vulnerability to natural in July 1988, there have been floods in the disasters is rising due to population growth, Sudan and Bangladesh, Hurricanes Gilbert urbanisation, and the concentration of and Juana in the Caribbean and Central industry and infrastructure in disaster-prone America, destructive earthquakes in China, areas. But we now have improved capacity India, Nepal, and the USSR, and severe to confront the problem. Fatalism is no drought and locust infestations in Africa. longer acceptable; it is time to bring the The post-disaster response of the full force of scientific and technological international community has been advancement to reduce the human tragedy generous. But observing these and other and economic loss of natural disasters. tragic events has convinced us of the need for increased efforts in disaster planning, This concept is the premise of the preparedness, and prevention. United Nations General Assembly decision, in its Resolution 42/169 of 11 December We believe that the Decade is a 1987, to designate the 1990s as an moral imperative. It is the first International Decade in which the world coordinated effort to prevent the community joins to cooperate on natural unnecessary loss of life from natural disaster reduction. hazards. It also makes practical sense. The Decade is an opportunity for the world The Secretary-General of the United community, in a spirit of global Nations, who was asked to develop a cooperation, to use the considerable framework to attain the objective and goals existing scientific and technical knowledge of the Decade, appointed our Committee, to alleviate human suffering and enhance the International Ad Hoc Group of economic security. In implementing the Experts. We are 25 scientists and technical Decade, the vulnerability of developing experts drawn from throughout the world countries must be of special concern. and representing the spectrum of 32 Thus we, the International Ad Hoc The Group is confident that through Group of Experts, call on: these actions mankind will capture the promise of enhanced security and The people of the world, as well as their prosperity. governments, to work toward greater security against natural disasters; International Ad Hoc Group of Experts The governments of all countries to participate actively in the Decade by educating and training their citizens to increase awareness, by enhancing social preparedness, by integrating disaster- consciousness into their development programmes, and by making available the power of science and technology to reduce disaster loss; The United Nations, scientific and technological institutions. nongovernmental organisations. and the private sector to support international and regional cooperation on disaster- related activities and to contribute to the transfer of disaster-reduction technology, particularly in disaster-prone developing countries. The Decade is an opportunity for action, both immediate and long term. Specific projects can be implemented immediately to help achieve a safer world. Implementation of the Decade requires commitment of the international community to enhance the level of technical cooperation, particularly with regard to developing countries. The Group calls for all countries to form national committees to plan for and coordinate national efforts. It suggests that the United Nations General Assembly consider the establishment of a unique cooperative mechanism, supported by extrabudgetary resources, that brings together the diverse groups that can contribute to the Decade. It seeks the commitment of the international community to assure the availability of resources to implement this important activity. 33 Formation of National Committees for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction Richard E. Haligren Chair, U.S. IDNDR National Committee Executive Director, American Meteorological Society I am extremely pleased to be able to participate in the Colloquium. For "Te Decade i an opp to those of us involved in the preparations utile the advances in sciece and for the International Decade for Natural tehekv Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), it is tec, and more genera, to rewarding to know that the World Bank is apply our overall knowledge to interested in considering ways to mitigate the impact of natural contribute. I believe it is extremely disasters on the peopk of the important for the World Bank to be world For the Jirvt time, we have involved, not only because of the suffering a framework: to work on a and misery that disasters cause to the people of the world each and every year, f -t Ma to da but also due to the fact that disasters all of the activities that go into interrupt the social and economic programs reducing the impact of natural of developing nations. dissters." The IDNDR is an exciting opportunity. It is an enormously complex undertaking and represents a tremendous impact of natural disasters on the people challenge. of the world. For the first time, we have a framework: to work on a multi-hazard The Decade is an opportunity to basis and to deal with all of the activities utilize the advances in science and that go into reducing the impact of natural technology, and more generally, to apply disasters. our overall knowledge to mitigate the Richard E. Hallgren is presently the Chair of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences' National Committee for Natural Disaster Reduction. He is also the Executive Director of the American Meteorological Society, a nonprofit scientific and professional organization, and a member of the U.N.'s Planning Committee for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (iDNDR). Mr. Hallgren served from 1979 to 1988 as the Director of the U.S. National Weather Service, which was responsible for providing weather forecasts and flood warnings for the U.S. and the coastal and off-shore waters. He also has been a member of the Executive Committee of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Assistant Administrator for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Oceanic and Atmospheric Services. Mr. Hallgren received his Ph.D. in meteorology from Pennsylvania State University. 34 In my former role as Director of name a few. These organizations have to the Weather Service of the United States, come together at the national, regional, I became painfully aware of the many ways and international level. That is the big the warning system for the protection of challenge and the one that we must life and property can fail. On some address because there is so much at stake. occasions, the disaster survey report would show that we had failed to issue a warning or the warning was inadequate and that, "The IDNDR will provide the although the science and technology was opponityforbuiingthebridges available to prepare a far more accurate ainongunhyfoibusldrngpheibridges and more precise warning, we had not amongthevariousgroupsinvolved translated the science and technology into in different types of disasters and the operational warning system. But more in ensuring that all of functions of frequently, the disaster survey report would risk assessment, land-planning, show that we had issued a good warning building codes, monitoring, but the people in the communities either warning, education, and did not get it in a timely way, or did not understand it fully, or did not know what preparedness treated in a balanced to do. We simply had not done enough in Way- educating the public and in encouraging the development of preparedness plans. Too frequently the world's attention Concerning the IDNDR, or in the is brought into focus on the large disasters case of the United States, the National such as the Armenian earthquake, Decade, disaster reduction activities can Bangladesh floods, or the Colombian go a long way in solving these types of volcanic eruption. They were terrible problems. The IDNDR will provide the disasters, but they take away somewhat opportunity for building the bridges among from the fact that there are literally tens the various groups involved in different of hundreds of smaller scale disasters that types of disasters and in ensuring that all happen every day around the world. And of functions of risk assessments, land-use these many "smaller ones," which are not planning, building codes, monitoring, in the world's news, collectively take a far warning, education, and preparedness greater toll than those that we hear about. treated in a balanced way. A comprehensive program of this type just simply makes better sense than the Formation of National Committees piecemeal approach that has been undertaken in this country and other I have been asked to focus on the countries for too long. formation of national committees or entities for the Decade. I consider the The complexity of the program is national arrangements as being the most somewhat mind-boggling. To be successful, critical element in the implementation of we have to have the full support of so the Decade. The bottom line is to ensure many different organizations, including that the people know what to do for all scientific and engineering groups, natural hazards that are common to the communications media, educational groups, area, and the local community has a plan insurance and banking corporations, civil of action that can be quickly swung into protection and voluntary organizations, and motion. This can only be done at the disaster management organizations, just to national level. It will involve many people 35 from many backgrounds and many come from agencies responsible for organizations within the country. meteorology, seismology, emergency management, land-use planning, building The developing nations will need regulations, health services, legal affairs, help, but if the will and desire within the civil protection, public works, and public nation is not present, we will not be utility policy. The national entity must be successful. The national arrangements of capable of interacting with the scientific our committees will differ in composition and professional communities and with the and function in different countries, but public to promote and facilitate the their basic goals must be the same: to achievement of Decade goals. promote the activities of the Decade; Governments may wish to review the advise their governments on priorities, national entities already established. programs, and projects that are most appropriate for their countries; and serve as points of contact with the international The national arangements ofour and regional elements of the Decade. committees wil differ in Each country will need to decide composition and function in how best to structure and finance their different countries, but their basic national entity. Common to all, however, goals must be the same to will be the pooling of resources and skills promote the activities of the needed to develop successful and De ; advise their government integrated disaster reduction programs, in on prioriti proram en areas such as planning, science and o and technology policy, research, public projects that are most appropriate education, and information dissemination. for their countries; and serve as Links are needed with experts in a wide points of contact with the range of scientific, engineering, and health internadonal and regional elements disciplines as well as with investment of the Decade." banking, private and professional associations, voluntary agencies, the media, educational institutions, and other entities whose actions can effect disaster reduction. The second essential element of a Links with the donor community are also national entity is that it is linked to important to the success of national community-level natural disaster mitigation entities. efforts, the Decade's organizational structure, and regional institutions The national entity could be within associated with the Decade. In this way, or outside a national government. the national entity would establish a Committee members could include framework for Decade activities at the representatives of government; academic, national and local levels and would link the research, and professional organizations; regional and international organizations and other interest groups. The latter could dealing with the Decade. It would also include the financial and insurance sectors, provide a mechanism for deciding on and voluntary associations on the priorities and new program initiatives, community level and other provide the means for mobilizing nongovernmental organizations experienced knowledge for natural disaster reduction in dealing with populations at high-risk and personnel training, and identify locations. Official representatives could financial resources for supporting national 36 entity program activities and their regional arrangements. Here in the United States, and international extensions. the National Committee has been established within the framework of the Whatever the organizational National Academy of Sciences. We have structure of these national entities, each very broad representation on it. I am should, confident that with the quality of the people and their breadth of knowledge (i) develop a national plan for Decade and experience, we will be able to work activities; cooperatively with the government of the United States in bringing about an effective (ii) coordinate policy analysis, program right down to the local community development, and legislation level. regarding natural disaster reduction, monitoring, early warning and We are having our first meeting of forecasting, evacuation planning, the United States National Committee on reliet and rehabilitation; June 21 and 22. We intend to build on all of the good work that is already going (iii) create and/or improve the on in this country. We intend to identify awareness of the public and and find ways of translating those into an governmental officials of the great overall program. We hope to learn from loss of life, property, and quality of other countries through the International life caused by natural disasters; Decade and to contribute to the IDNDR. (iv) develop logistical support and a We are at the beginning of a legislative framework for effective journey. A journey that I hope will not disaster reduction measures; go on just for the formally designated (v) evaluate national programs in terms Decade, but from here on. The IDNDR of Decade goals; will never totally reduce the suffering and misery of people from natural hazards, but (vi) bring donors and benefactors we should be able to lessen the impact ir together for concerted action to a major way. The World Bank has alread: support the Decade and permanent been active in these areas. I hope it play activities thereafter; an even greater role in the future. (vii) encourage preparedness through the development of localized quick-response self-help strategies; and (viii) promote research, development, and technology transfer to fill the gaps in knowledge related to natural disasters. A sizeable number of countries have already established their national arrangements. I cannot recall the exact number, but I believe over 20 countries have already established their 37 Planning for International Participation in the Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction Philippe L Boulle Director of the New York Liaison Office United Nations Office of the Disaster Relief Co-ordinator For the past 17 years, the organization I represent, the Disaster G mw mUl be mom lke Relief Office of the United Nations to pp D activitIes if they (UNDRO) has assisted governments, u ndesodht"ritigation worldwide, in more than 2,000 disasters, large and small. We have witnessed over is a positive approach towards the years the loss of millions of lives as protection of their own resource well as massive property damage and base and that it is part of economic destruction resulting from development acdtvie. There is earthquakes, floods, and other calamities. = l v m fh uwbfl We know that billions of dollars have ample evidence ofthe vulnerability poured into relief and reconstruction of sorne economies to disaster efforts. situations which can suffer damages equivalent to over 5% of Because we have seen so much their GNP in one single disaster." recurrent human misery and economic damage, we firmly believe in the value and importance of disaster mitigation. The toll on human life and property can addition to its relief coordination branch. indeed be significantly reduced by Several of UNDRO's successful improved risk assessment and early warning programmes are now in the field of systems, and by increased public awareness disaster mitigation, such as the Pan of disasters through education and training. Caribbean Disaster Prevention and This is why UNDRO now has a fully Preparedness Project, or in comprehensive fledged disaster mitigation branch in prevention projects in Colombia, Peru or Philippe L Boulle has been the Director of the New York liaison Office of the United Nations Office of the Disaster Relief Co-ordinator (UNDRO) since May 1988. He joined the United Nations in 1980 and was successively a Chief at the Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) and the Principal Officer at the Office of the Director-General of the United Nations for Development and International Economic Cooperation (DIEC), where he was closely involved in the launching of the U.N. Programme of Action for Africa. Prior to his U.N. appointments, Mr. Boulle was Secretary-General of the Mauritius Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and the Chief Executive of the Mauritius Commercial Bank Finance Corporation Ltd. He holds degrees from the Institut D'Etudes Politiques, the Faculte de Droit et des Sciences Economiques de Paris and the Faculte de Gestion et D'Economie Applique de Paris. 38 Indonesia. Activities covered by our leaders, United Nations organizations, and programmes range from hazard mapping NGOs, and adopt a multisectoral approach and monitoring of seismic activity to to disaster mitigation. training, research, and public awareness projects. UNDRO, therefore, welcomes the "e should not beieve that there opporumties offered by the forthcoming is already widepread acceptance International Decade for Natural Disaster of the necessity to change from an Reduction (IDNDR). Since the adoption attitude of responding to disasters of Resolution 42/169 in December 1987, to one of acting to prevent their which gave clear objectives for the Decade, impact Many local and United we have played a central role in the United Nadonssysten officia NGOs and Nations system in preparing for the Decade PVOs as wellas a lagepart ofthe by running a small interim secretariat for gVOsral pato te the Decade and by operating a trust fund ge pul aso to spe for that purpose. PrgrMrned to respond to disaster situations, and it will take a lot of But now is the crucial moment. At effort to change their perception." the end of this year and following preliminary discussion in the Economic and Social Council in July, the General Assembly will decide on the final shape The Ad Hoc Group also made and content of the Decade, including recommendations to the Secretary- General guidelines for international participation concerning organizational arrangements for in the Decade. the Decade. In short, recognizing the basic importance of national activities and the In their deliberations, the member need for coordinated central action, the states of the United Nations will be guided group proposed the establishment of a by the report of the Ad Hoc Group of board of trustees (about 5 members), a Experts, appointed by the programme committee (some 25 experts), Secretary-General to advise him on a a small identifiable secretariat for the possible framework and arrangement for Decade, and a trust fund to finance some the Decade. The report, which has just basic activities. The intention was to been presented to the Secretary-General stimulate, initiate, and orient action by the Chairman of the group, Dr. Frank towards the Decade's objectives; to Press, proposes a basic approach to promote exchange of information; and to IDNDR. There is no compulsory exercise some sort of coordination between programme of action for the Decade nor all the different actions at the various is there a detailed list of projects to be levels. Most of the activities themselves implemented. Rather, the report highlights would be carried out by governments, by basic objectives and goals to be attained, organizations of the United Nations system, and it lists possible actions towards that as well as by NGOs and scientific groups. end. There is even a description of some The proposal for the Decade recognized illustrative projects that could be the evolving nature of the exercise and the implemented. This is indeed u wise need not to cast in stone a programme for approach for a Decade that will have to ten years that may need adjustment as the blend international, regional, and national years go by. preoccupations, associate scientists, political 39 It is now up to the Secretary- approach to targets. Maybe, regional or General of the United Nations to make national targets can be established or his final recommendation to the General targets for different professional activities, Assembly. The United Nations Steering such as the building trade, can be devised. Committee on the Decade is meeting today. In any case, it will be important to to finalize proposals to member states. operationalize the Decade, no matter how Concerned entities of the United Nations difficult this is. system, including the World Bank, are represented in the Committee, which helps coordinate the inputs of the United "Govenuen at the international Nations system for the Decade. It is widely level willadeine the contents ofthe expected that by and large, the Steering Decade;fet,eitstucceostwll depen Committee will endorse the proposals of Deca*yet issaccesswilldepend the Group of Exp:rts. for a great part on activities at the national leveL Progress will be Once the organizational structure achieved only if the scientific and of the Decade is approved by member m wdd nobA states, international participation in the t Wwrh and irlY n capciks Decade will be defined with more .ue a precision. Groups such as international F he, it is the generalpublic that scientific unions, organizations of the needs to become more awae of the United Nations system, and private and virues of disaster miigation." non-governmental organizations will have the possibility to interact on substantive and programmatic matters with the secretariat or the programme committee Second. we should not believe that for the Decade. A workshop to be there is already widespread acceptance of conducted in July by the Italian the necessity to change from an attitude government on policy issues and scientific of responding to disasters to one of acting priorities for the Decade will also help to to prevent their impact. Many local and further clarify how the Decade will be United Nations system officials, NGOs implemented. and PVOs, as well as a large part of the general public are, so to speak, However, planning for international programmed to respond to disaster participation in the Decade is not just a situations, and it will take a lot of effort question of organizational arrangements to change their perception. In order to or even of the definition of goals and realize a change in mentality and objectives. Planning for the Decade also governmental attitude, a large part of means finding the correct answers to a Decade activities will have to be devoted series of issues which I will briefly outline to public education, public awareness, and for you. training programmes, especially at the local level in disaster-prone countries. First Decade "officials" will have to define some broad qualitative and Third, and this point is closely quantitative targets for the ten years to related to the previous one, the will of the come against which performance can be political world to give priority attention to assessed. This is an almost impossible disaster mitigation is not as strong as it task because there is always the danger of should. The economic and social benefits having a bureaucratic, account-like of disaster mitigation are not yet fully 40 perceived. Resource allocations for activities to be worked out for the Decade disaster mitigation, either in national needs to take into account the international budgets or in the programmes of or national environment in which international organizations, are also clear governments and private agencies have to evidence that a large effort still needs to move. North/South issues, debt, and be made. Governments would be more ecological and environmental matters will likely to support Decade activities if they also occupy attention in years to come, and understood that disaster mitigation is a natural disaster mitigation must find its positive approach towards protection of own niche in this whole context. It would their own resource base and that it is part be wrong to believe that it is naturally at of development activities. There is ample the center of activities. Interrelationships evidence of the vulnerability of some with other issues, especially environment economies to disaster situations, which can issues, will have to be examined. This is suffer damages equivalent to over 5% of a point which has been made abundantly their GNP in one single disaster. clear by Mr. Piddington this morning in his introduction to this seminar. Fourth, there will be no Decade for natural disaster reduction worthy of this Finally it is not easy to harness all name unless the scientific community is energies into one coordinated effort for fully involved in it and unless there is the Decade. Governments, at the tremendous progress in scientific research international level, will define the contents and the application of technology. It is by of the Decade; yet, its success will depend learning more about disasters that we shall for a great part on activities at the national be able to fight them effectively. The level. Progress will be achieved only if the Decade goes beyond the drafting of civil scientific and technical world fully defence preparedness measures. One mobilizes their research and innovation important problem will be the definition capacities. Further, it is the general public of appropriate means for the transfer of that needs to become more aware of the technology in disaster mitigation to virtues of disaster mitigation. The danger developing countries. of parallel and contradictory approaches is great. It will take a large amount of self- Eifth, there is a need to establish a discipline, common sense, and goodwill link between Decade activities and the from all groups concerned to make a actual response to disasters. It is not success of IDNDR. enough to predict accurately a volcanic eruption or a windstorm; it is as important to respond effectively to a disaster when it occurs. The link is not as easy to establish as one would think: in essence, disaster mitigation is a field where high-level technology can be used. By contrast, when a disaster strikes, immediate rescue efforts have to be undertaken by local individuals unfamiliar with technology in a typically disorganized set up where even electric power is not available or telephone lines are out of order. Sixth, the overall framework of 41 Note by the Panel Moderator* Everardo Wessels Department Director Latin America and the Caribbean Technical Department The World Bank The three presentations in this session convey a sense that the "Disaster not only internupt the International Decade for Natural Disaster development proces for many Reduction presents an opportunity for the world to collaborate in an effort that could countrie they se the proess back positively impact the lives of billions people On top of the long-term cost to and contribute to the long-term rebuild the economic base...are the sustainability of our development activities. less tangible costs: the loss to The numbers are staggering: Nearly three agriulunlproduion, thegrowth million people have died and about one of unempoymnt or the lack of billion people -- nearly one-fifth of the ofainentlon1ence ir thelako global population -- have been adversely investment cond e in the fuw impacted by disasters in the past twenty These longer-term costs manfest years. And physical damage, occurring on themselves in depressed GNP a monumental scale, has thwarted the growth raes. development aspirations of many of the world's poorest countries. When imagining a natural disaster, development process for many countries, we usually think of the suffering of the they set the process back. On top of the victims and the short-term economic effects long-term cost to rebuild the economic of the destruction. However, the hidden, base -- including the infrastructure, longer-term impacts often are just as housing, industry, water supply system, devastating, if not more so. The World health facilities, and schools - are the less Bank, which has financed many emergency tangible costs: the loss to agricultural reconstruction projects, is acutely aware production, the growth of unemployment, that these hidden costs impact developing or the lack of investment confidence in the countries far more severely than developed future. These longer-term costs manifest countries. Disasters not only interrupt the themselves in depressed GNP growth rates. Everardo Wessels is the Department Director for the Latin America and the Caribbean Technical Department of the World Bank. He joined the Bank in 1967 as a Young Professional and has worked in various capacities in the four World Bank regions and in the Programming and Budgeting Department. In 1979, Mr. Wessels became Assistant Director in charge of urban and water supply projects in Latin America and the Caribbean. He was promoted to his current position in 1987. Mr. Wessels holds degrees from the University of Buenos Aires and MIT. * Prepared for this volume. 42 Our approach to dealing with natural disasters has been ineffective in arriving at the real solution - preparing for and mitigating natural hazards. As with so many environmental problems requiring a long-term perspective, we have adopted a reactive stance, waiting for the crisis to strike before attention is drawn to the problem and remedial action is taken. Fortunately, this era in disaster management is ending. The International Decade represents a milestone. For the first time, the world community has joined together and formed a consensus that a proactive stand to combat the destruction from natural hazards should be pursued. Paying the up- front costs to construct resilient buildings and development projects makes economic sense. Educating the public about natural hazards and techniques to promote invulnerability can indeed save lives. And, promoting early warning technology and preparing emergency response plans can significantly enhance our ability to mitigate disasters. This philosophy is being embraced by the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. I am encouraged by this global effort which has attracted a true diversity of specialists - in development, engineering, the environment, government, science and technology, finance, and planning -- who are bringing their expertise to bear in this area. I believe the international community possesses the wherewithal to reduce the impact of natural disasters. The Decade is demonstrating that the requisite commitment by individual governments also is being secured. 43 Panel 2. Vulnerability: Communications and Technology David Webster, The Annenberg Washington Program, Northwestern University Charles Sykes, C4RE Frederick M. Cole, Office of US. Foreign Disaster Assistance Francisco Sagasti, The World Bank Alberto Harth, The World Bank N. Erik A. Arrhenius, moderator, The World Bank 1,4 w w611 I AT,-- Summary of Panel Proceedings Technology and communications this problem, Mr. Webster suggested the are critical factors in disaster reduction international community adopt a strategies. With effective communications convention to permit the free flow of and technological capability to anticipate communications equipment for disaster and prepare for an extreme event, natural response purposes. hazards can be endured and large-scale disasters averted. Conversely, the lack of Mr. Webster also regarded the these resources can exacerbate the gravity military establishment's restriction on of a disaster. The second panel explored access to its vast resources and classified the complex cultural, economic, information as unwarranted in many cases environmental, and institutional issues and a serious impairment to disaster associated with technology transfer and reduction efforts. According to Mr. communications linkages. The session also Webster, declassifying information with surveyed lessons learned from the World great potential to-lower vulnerability could Bank's 42 years of experience in disaster be extremely beneficial. reconstruction lending. In addition, he urged that a new, The first speaker, David Webster more constructive relationship be forged of the Annenberg Washington Program, between broadcasters and the communities Northwestern University, discussed disaster they serve. For example, in the aftermath communications and the barriers to the of a calamity, broadcasters could make free movement of vital information before communications equipment accessible to and during a calamity. He also provided disaster response organizations in exchange a number of recommendations for for their assistance and information about overcoming these barriers and for the event. harnessing available communications capacity. Mr. Webster reiterated a central theme of the Colloquium, namely, that all Mr. Webster urged that institutions relevant organizations, particularly devote more resources to managing governments, give higher priority to information critical to lowering disaster mitigation. Organizations must vulnerability. He said that communications be sensitized to the enormous cost brought from disaster-stricken areas often are not on by disasters, and how the up-front impaired by technical inability, but by expense of mitigation is dwarfed by the bureaucratic bottlenecks or unfamiliarity cost of recovery following a calamity. Mr. with a country's existing communications Webster concluded by emphasizing that pathways during a relief operation. In broadcasters have the unique ability to addition, to overcome the lack of technical generate considerable political momentum and financial resources for disaster for a cause and they could be instrumental reduction,disaster-relatedcommunications in fostering a public campaign for disaster often can be utilized as "add on" reduction. applications to existing technology. In certain instances, trade laws and border Charles Sykes of CARE, the next checks between countries have panelist, reviewed the approach utilized unnecessarily delayed the movement of by the NGO community to lower disaster-related information. To rectify vulnerability. Two principal themes 46 emerged from his discussion: locally-based, presentation by calling on the international low-tech solutions must be sought for community to assist in ending civil strife in effective disaster reduction at the countries experiencing serious, slow-onset community level and those civil conflicts disasters. which are thwarting disaster relief and recovery in grave, slow-onset disasters must Frederick Cole of the U.S. Office be urgently resolved. of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) moved the discussion back to Mr. Sykes introduced his communications from a disaster response presentation by drawing an analogy perspective. He analyzed three recent between the tropical forest canopy and the case studies: the 1988 earthquake in Soviet NGO community. There are far more Armenia, the 1988 flood in Bangladesh, species in the canopy, and in the NGO and a conglomeration of slow-onset community, with diverse y!t interconnected disasters in Sudan. roles than one might expect, he said. While this ecosystem of national and Mr. Cole described how the international NGOs does not necessarily Armenian communications network, which embrace disaster reduction as its primary was not at full capacity when the mission, many NGOs do abide by earthquake struck because equipment had principles of risk reduction in their previously been diverted to neighboring projects. These projects are commonly regions experiencing civil strife, sustained predicated upon the recognition that heavy damage and was unable to cope natural resource depletion and disasters with the extraordinary demands placed are inextricably linked. The plight of upon it by relief activities. Inadequate ecological refugees provides a vivid communications undoubtedly frustrated reminder of this link. the relief effort, he said. Mr. Cole argued that the Armenia case graphically Mr. Sykes pointed out that the illustrated the implications of not paying fundamental issues in disaster reduction the up-front costs to ensure that essential emerge once disasters are viewed as infrastructure remains viable after a major interruptions in the linear process of disturbance. development: How can resources be allocated to minimize the duration of this The 1988 floods in Bangladesh interruption? And, how can resources be differed significantly from the Armenian deployed during relief to promote earthquake. Floods are a common event reconstruction? According to the speaker, in Bangladesh and the country's the answers to these questions lie in communications network is underdeveloped strengthening local capacity to cope with to begin with. Despite the country's natural hazards and learning from poverty, Bangladesh is resilient and able to traditional practice and response in the overcome the calamities which strike. Mr. communities most likely to be affected. Cole contended that stiff competition for Outside attempts to promote disaster each development dollar makes reduction must be accomplished in overhauling the communication network an congruence with local practice; untenable option. Nonetheless, substantial communications, training and education, improvements in the network could be and science and technology must be made by fortifying traditional "vernacularized" to involve local communications systems, supplanting communities in the effort. inadequate systems at critical junctures, and ensuring that the communications Mr. Sykes concluded his network of development projects remains 47 as invulnerable as possible. In addition, event that available scientific knowledge Mr. Cole predicted that as technology could be acquired, the unpredictability of continues to advance, cost-effective natural hazards makes technological communication devices will become planning and deployment extremely available even for the most austere difficult, even in the most amenable economies. circumstances. In the case of Sudan, civil strife and Mr. Sagasti continued by echoing neglect of the population have exacerbated the earlier speakers in his insistence that the impact of drought, flood, and locust. the technology was available to mitigate Mr. Cole suggested that effective risk and to deliver effective relief and communications mechanisms for disaster recovery after a disaster. Bureaucratic relief are possible only by portable bottlenecks presented the fundamental equipment less vulnerable to sabotage than hurdle to mobilizing technology. Also, the larger equipment, such as radios and intellectual tools were lacking for rational, walkie-talkies. resource allocation decisions to be made, and political interest groups were absent Mr. Cole concluded that the best for pressure to be exerted on policy way to facilitate communications after a makers. disaster is to base development on the principle that invulnerability creates As the last issue, Mr. Sagasti sustainability. In addition, he reminded cautioned development planners and the audience that disasters create a unique professionals in the disaster field about opportunity where limited resources can be placing their unquestioned faith on so- channeled into preventing the recurrence called "popular wisdom." Local of a calamity. populations, he asserted, often do not possess the expertise necessary to Francisco Sagasti of the World reconstruct homes, infrastructure, and Bank broadened the discussion to examine private and public enterprises more the political considerations in which resiliently. The opportunity afforded by decisions about technology transfer and the disaster to rebuild entire communities disaster communications are made in more prudently must not be foregone. developing countries. Mr. Sagasti concluded by Mr. Sagasti reviewed the chief commenting on issues of direct obstacles developing countries must consequence to the Bank. He said the contend with in securing technology for proper instruments to incorporate the disaster reduction. The primary vagaries of extreme events into project impediment was the intense competition design and evaluation criteria still need to for scarce resources. Then, he discussed be developed. Also, he discussed new three sets of problems and policy opportunities emerging for the Bank and consequences associated with technology professions in the disaster field as former transfer for disaster rediction. enclaves of East-West conflict are being reconciled. The first issue concerned the appropriate use of technology and scientific Alberto Harth, Operations Advisor knowledge. Mr. Sagasti suggested that at the World Bank, provided the context some forms of technology transfer, fer future Bank activities in disaster agricultural chemicals for example, may reduction by reviewing the institution's exacerbate vulnerability. Moreover, in the past emergency lending practices and its 48 current emphasis on disaster mitigation. weaknesses within developing countries by providing greater support to new Mr. Harth began by examining the institutions or by strengthening existing factors which have led to successful Bank- ones. financed reconstruction projects. These factors include the host government's As a conclusion to the second panel, strong commitment to disaster recovery, Erik Arrhenius, Science and Technology early Bank involvement in the Advisor at the World Bank and the reconstruction effort, and a comprehensive moderator, commented on the ecological and multisectoral recovery program whose aspect of natural hazards and explored the objectives are reasonably limited in number relationship between extreme events in and scope. nature, environmental mismanagement, and disasters. According to Mr. Harth, since the Bank's first reconstruction loans in 1947 to Mr. Arrhenius said that the extreme Europe, emergency lending has evolved in events which trigger disasters are integral four important directions. First, the scope to the natural cycles of the Earth. As a of emergency assistance has expanded and response to these extreme events and less become more flexible -- projects have tumultuous natural fluctuations, the shifted to encompass economic recovery relationship between the Earth and humans rather than solely physical reconstruction. has undergone two phases. First, humans Second, special procedures have been lacked the technological and economic instituted to accelerate the processing of wherewithal to control and subdue nature. emergency loans. Third, quick-disbursing With the advent of thriving industrialized features to finance the immediate economies, nature soon could be exploited reconstruction needs of the disaster- and restrained. But, with the subjugation stricken nation have been implemented. of nature came a cost. Mr. Arrhenius cited And fourth, disaster prevention and burgeoning population growth and its mitigation have been given greater impact on the environment as an example prominence in normal and emergency of this cost. lending and as freestanding disaster reduction loans. As a result of our mismanagement of the environment, Mr. Arrhenius warned, Despite the Bank's institutional the frequency of extreme events inevitably push toward integrating disaster reduction will increase. And, despite successful into its lending program, it has encountered innovations to arrest environmental several obstacles in developing risk degradation, the incidence of natural reduction projects. The field's infancy is disasters will multiply in the future. Mr. reflected in the Bank's limited portfolio of Arrhenius called for a proactive approach risk lowering projects. Also, the complex in which future disasters are anticipated, milieu in which lending occurs has created prevented, and mitigated. Integrating an environment in which taking a long- disaster reduction with general term perspective for disaster mitigation is development theory and practice, he said, difficult. However, perhaps the most is imperative. formidable barrier to implementing effective hazard reduction programs is the institutional weaknesses within borrowing countries to administer such programs. Mr. Harth suggested that the donor community could help to rectify institutional 49 International Disaster Communications David Webster Director International Disaster Communications Project The Annenberg Washington Program of Northwestern University Perhaps I should open my contribution to the discussion by saying "In the last few yea= we have seen that I am probably the only person in this dramatic changes in the scale of room who is n1 a recognized expert on natural disasters, the environment, or epment that is needed to development. Also, I am not an engineer communicate internationally. It is -- so this is not going to be a technical nowpossible to rush into a stricken approach. I am an editor who ended up area with small satellite uplinks m the management of a very large and quickly restore broadcasting organization. So I do know communications with the outside something about international communications and it is the gap between word -data, voic4 and video. In these areas of expertise that I wish to fac4 most of the barriers to this address both in technical and policy terms. activity turn out not to be technical at al1 but often a lack of Last year I was asked by The knowledge or imagination or Annenberg Washington Program to chair bureuc r deay." a small task force in Washington to look bureaucratic delay. at the coming developments in the communications industry and how these might be used to help in dealing with was an enormous gap between what the natural disasters, both before and after communications people knew were going the event. It was an interesting group to be the startling developments of the consisting of relief workers, lawyers, next decade in their business, and the editors, engineers, and communications ability of some disaster relief organizations experts. It soon became clear that there to focus on these developments. Of course, David Webster is Director of the International Disaster Communications Project and a Senior Fellow with The Annenberg Washington Program of Northwestern University, which assesses how communication technology and current governmental communications policies affect aspects of American life. Previously, Mr. Webster was an Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where his work centered on public policy arising from communications. He worked for more than 30 years with the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), including eight on its Board of Management, most recently as Director, United States. In addition to his role as a member of the Board, Mr. Webster oversaw all the BBC's activities and interests in the U.S. and assessed the impact of new communications technology. 50 most broadcasters themselves do not know likely to be dedicated to the disaster much about the disaster business and have business. That would be totally not thought about their own potential for uneconomic. (Nobody would suggest that a constructive role. So we learned a great it is necessary to build a national telephone deal from each other and fresh minds were service across the United States designed applied to constantly recurring problems specifically to warn people in Kansas of the seen in a new light. likelihood of tornadoes.) There is a strange underestimation of what can be done about disasters. The "In n instances, the scale and fact that they have caused more deaths, cost of the technoloff applied by probably, even than warfare in the last lage broadcasting organ i two decades does not seem to focus the attention of governments. The false notion to the coverage of disasters far of unpredictability creates a psychological exceeds the sophistication and the barrier to action. If you were to take one cost of the technology available to hundredth of the energy, intellect, and relief organizations. It is certainly money which is applied to the subject of posi by caupiorag"eee how to win wars (in case they should break out) and applied those resources to how to to alow some of ti epenve deal with disasters (which we know will communications technology to be happen somewhere - some day), great used by the reliefauthoities in the progress would be made. Existing efforts management of the problem are inadequate. Institutions that are supposed to deal with the problem are too weak, lack effective resources, and lack a mandate to manage. The first task of the It is because of the unpredictability media is to cover the subject of disasters of the demand for specialized disaster more coherently and less fatalistically. services that they should, in the main, Disasters are not only partially an act of function as add-on systems to God, there is something that Man can do - communications developments which have - and the media can tell us. In fact, I am their own commercial justification. But told that the three of them -- God, Man, there are plenty of these around and new and the Media -- together can manage all ones that are growing. Take, as only one sorts of things. example, satellite location systems such as Geo-star which is now going into operation When we look at the likely in the United States. The commercial developments in the communications purpose of this system is to be able to industry during the next decade, we see track and locate, at a moments notice, dramatic potential. Systems which cannot spare parts for industry and goods of all help us today, in their next generation of kinds being trucked across the United development, can be full of possibilities. States. A small display device is installed Most of the innovations will happen for in the cab of the truck and messages can straightforward commercial reasons. There be sent back and forth across the continent will be a growth of major private and by satellite to a central control center. The public international satellite systems that system is in its early days and it cannot, at will have very real applications to the the moment, handle much information, but management of natural disasters. Of it will be upgraded. It will exist in the course, few of these developments are United States and will probaoly be 51 developed elsewhere in the world. The disseminate information on available system is clearly a technology which, at disaster communication resources, evaluate very low cost indeed, could be applied in potential satellite needs, and help the coming decade to help communications requesting nations to make disaster at times of natural disaster and the system contingency plans. It would formalize a itself is almost invulnerable. procedure for disaster-stricken nations to request help in disaster communications, Whenever you see or hear a story give assisting nations' personnel and about a disaster, the second sentence is communications equipment immunity from always "and communications have broken arrest and seizure and taxation, and down." This is because these otherwise encourage rapid entry into the communications often consist of highly requesting nations. It appeared to us that vulnerable hard-wire telephone lines. here was a gap that needed filling. Ours Many of the new systems being developed may not be the perfect convention but at through the use of a variety of satellites least it is a try and other people can go do not depend on hard-wire, and as the on and improve upon it. ground installations become smaller and more efficient, they will multiply. So the Another area (which is regarded by likelihood of all your ground stations being some people as extremely mysterious and knocked out at any one time is extremely in which we had recommendations) is that small. The ability to restore shattered of the use of remote satellite imaging. communications at times of emergency is, Remote imaging after a disaster, by itself, of course, growing rapidly. In the last few sometimes is not terribly useful, but if such years, we have seen dramatic changes in pictures from space relate to databanks full the scale of equipment that is needed to of picture from space taken in time of communicate internationally. It is now normality (that is, before disaster), the possible to rush into a stricken area with comparison can be extremely instructive. small satellite uplinks and quickly restore This is another technology which will grow communications with the outside world - rapidly in the coming decade and new data, voice, and video. In fact, most of commercial systems will become available the barriers to this activity turn out not to in addition to the existing ones of Landsat be technical at all, but often a lack of and SPOT. What I think is important here knowledge or imagination or bureaucratic is that this development (in relationship to delay. disaster mitigation) should not be totally uncoordinated. It would be ridiculous to A major proposal that came out of have a whole system of commercial our Annenberg group was therefore to orbiting satellites that flew over a certain remove the bureaucratic delays beforehand. area only every other Wednesday. What What is needed is a new international we need is some element of coordination convention for the free movement of so that the aggreg of these commercial communications equipment in order to deal developments will give a useful coverage with major disasters. A swift and of the world's most vulnerable spots and unhampered deployment of relief with a rate of revisit which can give us equipment and personnel across borders is information as fast as possible. Gradually, absolutely essential. So we drafted a the rates of revisit will improve and convention on telecommunications systems resolution will become better, both with for disasters. This would direct the photographic techniques and with other International Telecommunications Union, imaging. Again I must stress that the or some other suitable body, to collect and usefulness of this information relates to 52 the existence of databanks or comparable and Colorado. It is a tragedy that those information which have to be built up two great nations have found themselves beforehand. unable to cooperate in this area so far and take the instruments of war and apply them to the saving of lives in peacetime. "We need to reeramine the cloak of secuiy that lies over the use of Again, satellite remote sensing solely for its role in the mitigation of occasional remote imaging systems so that disasters would be uneconomic, but future both the growing commercial systems being built for other purpose can systems can be more effectively be made adequate if serious thought is utilized and the vast existing given today. A small example. There have inteligence resources of the great been studies of the proposed MediaSat, powen can be apW to this which would provide pictures to the world's role news media. These studies concluded -- probkn. the system was too expensive. We have done an engineering and cost study for a small Disaster-Sat system. Conclusion -- Of course, the difficulty of discussing =o expensive. But the technical this subject is that very little of this specifications for both systems are very technology exists in the open commercial similar. Could they be combined and the world. Most of it belongs to the world of costs shared -- indeed, are there other military intelligence of the great powers, revenue-creating uses not yet thought out? so that when you do discuss it with anybody who actually knows anything about it, they So, let me now turn to the role of go a little pale, and start muttering about broadcasters themselves. I know from my "national technical means." It is true that own experience both in the management this is an extremely sensitive subject. On of broadcasting and in early years when, the other hand, I also believe it is to be as a producer, I actually used to rush off true that the total blanket of security with to earthquakes such as that at Skopje in which it is covered should not continue to Yugoslavia, that, as a journalist, one often exist indefinitely and, in fact, I do not feels helpless when confronted with merely believe that it will continue to exist reporting major human suffering rather indefinitely. The great powers are well than helping. You wish to put down your aware of 90 percent of each other's camera or your notebook and try to help capabilities in this area and it would seem with your bare hands. Sometimes this to me ridiculous to try and protect 100 concern is overlayed with a protective percent of this information. In fact I cynicism. But there may be ways in which suggested in a recent article in the New onc can maintain one's professional York Times that in this new era of objectivity and primary role but at the cooperation, this area might be a subject same time be of assistance. The first is Mr. Gorbachev and Mr. Bush should place obviously by providing fair and accurate on their agenda for discussion. At the time reporting and fulfilling one's professional of the Armenian earthquake in the Soviet role according to the highest standards. Union, I am sure that the United States But there are also other ways in which one was in possession of very good pictures of can be made to feel less of a voyeur. Armenia, just as at the same time the Without compromising one's professional Soviet Union would have been in integrity, one can cooperate with the relief possession of very good pictures of Texas authorities. In many instances, the scale 53 and cost of the technology applied by large broadcasting organizations to the coverage %Wen disasers happen, the scale of disasters far exceeds the sophistication of cost is enormous However, the and the cost of the technology available to of ist is mt Ho et relief organizations. It is certainly possible, cost of mitigation s not so great by careful prior agreement, to allow some In the area of communications, of this expensive communications these costs ar manageable because technology to be used by the relief most of the things that need to be authorities in the management of the done can be an intellgent add-on problem. Satellite uplinks, for instance, to developments, both have multiple capabilities and broadcasters govemnental and commfci4 ,a usually make block bookings. This time is gre ntaan nn a not used efficiently. There is some slack. ar already happening." By prior arrangement, relief authorities could have cheap international communication by satellite and possibly world, this is changing very rapidly, access to material of interest to them not particularly in western Europe, where there actually broadcast. They in turn could is a rapid deregulation of broadcasting on make their expertise and knowledge a national level and new systems are available to broadcasters at the time of the growing -- many on a regional level. disaster and in prior training sessions. Instead of making one telephone call, say to the director-general of the BBC, it will Other ways in which the be necessary to make dozens of telephone broadcasters could help are obviously in calls to a lot of different independent the general education of people, in broadcasters, many of them transmitting to emergency warning systems, and with tho your country from somewhere else in the understanding of disasters when they world. So it is not going to be as simple happen. In many countries, the television as it used to be, and a lot of the emergency weatherman is a major messenger, plans will have to be rethought. The someone who is known and trusted in the audience is being fragmented. Also, it will household. It would seem natural that the be much more difficult to control the flow weatherman (or weather person) be of information. This will make even more adapted to become a conduit for a gradual evident and important a basic rule of public education about disaster mitigation information management. That is, in order and the person one turns to in the event to maintain credibility, you have to tell the of danger. truth and be open. You not only have to tell the truth and be open, you have to do Broadcasters have always been so quickly, indeed immediately. thought of as the transmission belt for governmental information at times of in the world of communications, emergency. The changes that are taking which is changing rapidly even as we speak, place in the communications industry, it will become more and more difficult for however, have created a need for a rather any one authority or any one transmission serious reassessment of this role. Many system to maintain a particular line of nations have become used to the idea of information without being contradicted by having a fairly straightforward national another stream of information which comes broadcasting system which is easy to from elsewhere, outside the control of contact and whose signal reaches most of national authority. Therefore, it is only the population. In many parts of the right to tell the truth quickly, it is also 54 necessary and practical to do that. all of them need to be sensitized to the need to plan for the entirely ptedictable So to sum up, =ne, we need more fact that disasters will and do happen. resources, new and strengthened When disasters happen, the scale of cost international institutions. Many of our is enormous. However, the cost of problems are managerial. We need mitigation is not so great. In the area of something like an 800 disaster number, communications, these costs are perhaps duplic.--,d on a regional basis, manageable because most of the things which would be the central point for all that need to be done can be an intelligent information relating to disasters. It would add-on to developments, both have the computer banks both to receive governmental and commercial, that are new information and to regurgitate the already happening. Now is the time to old. ensure that they happen in the way which is most useful for your specific needs. 'wo, we need a new international convention on the free movement of To conclude, perhaps one communications equipment in the event of immediate practical step which can be disaster. taken would be to take inventory -- to initiate a study of all new communications TI=, we need to reexamine the developments in order to determine what cloak of security that lies over the use of is likely to happen in the course of normal remote imaging systems so that both the commercial and governmental ventures, growing commercial systems can be more how they might be of use in disaster effectively utilized and the vast existing mitigation (how to hitchhike upon them), intelligence resources of the great powers and how institutionally, financially, and can be applied to this problem. technically these ventures might be nudged into the most useful shape before they are EQu, we need a new relationship fully formed. I doubt that any of these to gradually develop with broadcasters suggestions are new, but there seems to be who bestride the transmission systems. some kind of institutional drag which has Broadcasters too need education so that tc be overcome. It is, I suspect, not the they can report more effectively. They technical possibility, but political energy need to be given a constructive role. And that is lacking. And if you want to we need a new openness of authority. It generate political energy -- I do have some will no longer be possible to hide behind advice - go thou to the media. the excuse of bureaucratic convenience. We will have to take the risk of being open with the people -- lest a worse fate should befall us. Lastly, governments have to give disaster mitigation a higher priority. Disasters are inevitable only in one sense. The sense that eventually death is inevitable. In the meantime, there are things that can be done. Governments, media organizations, insurance companies, large international corporations - all of them need have a major stake in this, and 55 The Role of NGOs in the Reduction of Vulnerability Charles Sykes Assistant Executive Director CARE Although CARE was founded 43 years ago as a relief organization to "In spite of the significant resources provide a channel for North Americans to avib from the intenational assist people in war torn Europe, its community fo he teaon primary focus has long since shifted to community, we have seldom development and relief in low-income qatitatively or qualitatvely assessed countries of Asia, Africa, and Central and the reources made available by the Latin America. Support now comes from clan, Wrib kin, and community which seven European and two Pacific countries, repraents the initial response or first as well as Canada and the United States. aid adnistd well before external You will recall several years ago assiance ever arives. In other words, that when a small portion of the Costa with afew exceptions, our first order of Rican tropical canopy was sprayed with business in mitigation and reducing insecticide, there was an explosive new vulnerability is to learn from traditional finding in terms of scientific knowledge practice and response, and to about the number of species that exists. sth lc c If there was such a thing as a NGO canopy, and heaven forbid you sprayed it, you would probably find a large number of species far beyond what you would prevention or mitigation of disasters. On expect. So let me start by saying that of the other hand, there are significant and the thousands of non-governmental increasing numbers of both the northern organizations in the international and nd southern NGOs carrying out small-to national development field, few, if any, medium-sized projects which in every sense have as their primary purpose the have a disaster mitigation dimension. Charles Sykes is the Assistant Executive Director of CARE, responsible for liaison with the World Bank, the U.S. government, and private international relief and development organizations in the Washington, D.C. area. A twenty-year veteran of overseas service with international development organizations, Mr. Sykes has served in the Dominican Republic as the Supervisor for CARE relief operations following Hurricane David; in Egypt as the Manager for a supplemental nutrition and health education program; in India as country Director; and in Bangladesh, where devastating floods led to the first major aided self-help housing project in the country. Mr. Sykes has been a member of U.S. government teams set up to review food aid programs to the Sahel and India. He received his bachelor's degree from Middlebury College in Vermont, and attended Oslo University and Columbia University. 56 There are many examples of such projects: the challenges become very clear: How reforestation of fragile lands, halting of can we most effectively utilize our desertification, erosion control, improved resources to minimize the duration of the housing in vulnerable areas, hillside interruption? And the more intriguing terracing, the introduction of fuel efficient challenge of how can we effectively deploy stoves, the integration of low-cost relief resources in a rehabilitative and sustainable agriculture and forestry protective manner? practices, the introduction of dro ;ht resistance varieties of crops, road repair Where do we look for the answers and maintenance, immunization and oral to these questions? Although I have yet rehydration, and water resource to hear these questions posed at the development. Colloquium, I believe that most NGOs would respond the answers are to be found in the disaster-prone areas themselves, with "Greater attention needs to be gien to the communities and people likely to be the vernacularization of disster affected. At that point, the first question we should ask is what are the traditional mitigation communications, trainin& forms of mutual aid and self-help practiced and education, Le., science and during periods of emergency and stress. In technology must find its way into the spite of the significant resources available vernacular. Therefore returning to my from the international community, we have original thesis we must first look at the seldom quantitatively or qualitatively ne.us and wnd out what wrational assessed the resources made available by the clan, tribe, kin, and community which forms of self-help and muta aid exist represents the initial response or first aid during periods of stress." administered well before external assistance ever arrives. In other words, with a few exceptions, our first order of Many of these projects address the business in mitigation and reducing maxim that we in this room have all come vulnerability is to learn from traditional to recognize: natural resource depletion practice and response, and to strengthen and disasters are inextricably linked. We local capacity. see this most prominently in the field with ecological refugees and the depletion of In 1968, following severe floods in resources by refugees who are moving the Chittagong district of what is now in from fragile lands. The lands that they Bangladesh, we at CARE were engaged in have moved from have been affected a self-help housing project to replace severely by overgrazing by animals and by several thousand houses. During the the refugees themselves in addition to community motivation stage of the project, adverse weather conditions. I had the bright idea of using local newspapers in order to communicate with One of the most challenging disaster the people of the district about the project. mitigation tasks for developing countries, Fortunately, one of our national staff had NGOs, multilateral development banks, commissioned a local bard to put lyrics to and bilateral donors alike is how to protect music about the project and to travel ongoing development programs and around from village to village in the area projects during disasters. If we view singing the praises of self-help housing. development as a linear process and While my article was appearing in the disasters as an interruption in that process, cities, the bard was far more successful in 57 disseminating the message to the rural of life. communities at the nexus of the disaster. A much stronger effort needs to be made by the U.N., multilateral and bilateral organizations, and NGOs to help There are a increasing number of resolve civil and regional conflicts. disaster-prne areas which are Otherwise, the resources made available dbawarne b e whih ae for development and disaster mitigation in concurNly being consmed by so- countries like Mozambique and Sudan, called low-intensity wars and cil and those countries on the horn of Africa confet . . . A much stronger effot will have no positive result. needs to be made by the U.N., untitateral and bilaterl organizadon4 and NGOs to help resolve civil and regional conflIcts." Greater attention needs to be given to the vernacularization of disaster mitigation communications, training, and education, i.e., science and technology must find its way into the vernacular. Therefore, returning to my original thesis, we must first look at the nexus and find out what traditional forms of self-help and mutual aid exist during periods of stress. In closing let me say that although the Colloquium and U.N. General Assembly Resolution 42/169 primarily address natural disaster reduction, I, as an NGO representative, would be remiss in my responsibility if I did not mention our community's growing concern with the plight and the condition of people in areas of natural disasters overlaid by civil conflict. There are an increasing number of disaster-prone areas which are concurrently being consumed by so-called low-intensity wars and civil conflict. For example, last year in our work with the Mozambique Department of Nataral Calamities, 22 drivers were killed while delivering relief supplies to outlying provinces. Civil institutions such as schools, health clinics, and cooperatives, were being indiscriminately attacked throughout the countryside with great loss 58 Communications in Relief: Armenia, Bangladesh, and Sudan Frederick M. Cole Assistant Director for Asia and the Pacific Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) U.S. Agency for International Development I want to commend Alcira Kreimer and the other initiators of the Colloquium "Conu ications planners, as in on choosing so apt a title for this meeting. all sectors, have been sobered by Many of us in the disaster field have been trying for the past several years to find the the recognition that even the right words to put before development superpowers can be humbled by planners to induce them into implanting severe natural events. We have mitigation and preparedness in their been reminded yet again of the development activities. I think perhaps tragic consequences. of "sustainability" is that word which underestirnating nature's power. appropriately links disasters and We must do a much better job of assessing risk and paying the up- I have to say right at the beginning front cost of ensming the viability that I am not a communications expert; I of infrastructure necessary to cannot tell a passive repeater from a KU support our economic, sock and band. I will simply use communications polical ends.a illustratively. As a user of communications and as a systems analyst, I am struck by the perception that there have been more failures in communications infrastructure our expectations. These failures may bear in the recent years than there have been implications about the fragility of in the past. That may be due to the fact sophisticated communications equipment, that our office has been more active in the or they may say something about what field than we used to be or that appears to be the increasing incidence of technological advancements have raised disasters in urban settings. Frederick M. Cole is the Assistant Director for Asia and the Pacific at the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA), U.S. Agency for International Development. His primary responsibilities at OFDA include disaster relief and preparedness for the Middle East, Asia, and the Pacific; scientific and technological applications for disaster reduction; information systems management; and program planning. He recently designed a set of communication strategies to facilitate disaster management and coordinated OFDA's disaster response to the 19C8 floods in Bangladesh. Mr. Cole served as a Systems Analyst at Page Communications Engineers; a Peace Corps Coordinator; a Field Representative and Deputy Mission Chief for CARE in Libya, Yugoslavia, and India. He graduated from the University of the South, Tennessee, and studied urban affairs at American University. 59 When we look at recent disaster maddeningly slow to a visiting fireman such events in Armenia, Bangladesh, and Sudan, as myself, but gradually, the telephone we see nearly the full array of problems system comes back, pole by pole; the telex which impact adversely on communications. comes back, station by station; and news In Armenia, the severity of earthquake comes to Dhaka from up-country by boat damage was matched by the extraordinary and bus. need for communications to meet the requirements of command and control of relief efforts, family reunification, logistics, "I would like to suggest to those and reporting. The unsettled regional of you frm the Worl Bank that concerns appeared to divert some of the o communications capacity of the invwmrabilty may translate into government. I do not know what the sustainability for development extent of earthquake-induced damage was Whether you opt for satellite or to the traditional commercial and military terrestrialcommunicationssystems systems, but certainly the earthquake took to support your development its toll on these sectors. Inadequate projects ase mae sure your communications existed by all accounts. r pl system will still be operable when Communications planners, as in all the nt 14 eathquak or sectors, have been sobered by the hunicane requies comiunications recognition that even the superpowers can to ensure that humwanitarian be humbled by severe natural events. We assistance can relieve the suffering have been reminded yet again of the tragic of the affected population. consequences of underestimating nature's power. We must do a much better job of assessing risk and paying the up-front cost of ensuring the viability of infrastructure Competition for development dollars necessary to support our economic, social, in Bangladesh is so keen for the most basic and political ends. We must be prepared services that a quick fix for countrywide to augment communications systems when communications is not possible, as David necessary to ensure that life sustaining Webster said earlier is the case all over the relief to disaster victims be delivered as world. Certainly, the government should expeditiously as possible. be looking at all feasible ways of hardening traditional communications systems and Bangladesh was a totally different seeking new ways to supplant those systems picture from Armenia. Flooding is an at critical junctures in the regional annual event. Bangladesh's networks. Inexpensive satellite-linked communications capacity at the best of packet radio is one option that Bangladesh times leaves a good deal to be desired. is looking at currently. Technology is fast Yet somehow communications in offering cost-effective solutions to Bangladesh happens, even in the aftermath communications problems even in the most of a hundred-year flood as illustrated last austere economies. September. During the morning panel, the resilience of disaster-prone nations was Think of the impact that you, the mentioned. That is the word you most development planners, could have if you typically hear in regard to Bangladesh in devoted only a tiny fraction of your the wake of a disaster -- they are resilient. development dollars to ensuring that the The return of communications is communications necessary for 60 administering your projects were requires communications to ensure that invulnerable to the hundred-year flood, or humanitarian assistance can relieve the the twenty-year cyclone, or the fifty-year suffering of the affected population. tornado. A lot is known about the natural hazard risks in Bangladesh, as in most Mr. Piddington this morning countries in the world. If sustainability is mentioned that the Bank's role is not in in fact a goal of development, you will relief, but in rehabilitation and heed those risks. reconstruction. I think that we can make the point that if relief is planned and Sudan is a tragic mirror of what implemented properly, then rehabilitation has become all too prevalent in the and reconstruction are natural follow-ons international disaster business: civil strife to that activity. I should put it the other and neglect of entire populations. Their way. If we were to look at what should consequences have caused a virtual failure be accomplished in rehabilitation and of development. In a country which is not reconstruction, we would be better able to often recognized as a model for fashion our relief efforts to meet the communications infrastructure, it is perhaps development needs of the affected unrealistic to expect the government of population. I think this is a very important Sudan to be terribly supportive of our point. efforts to coordinate relief to populations which have been selectively OFDA has long promoted disenfranchised. When you introduce mitigation before disasters. We have drought, flood, and locusts, as in Sudan, the talked about preparedness and we have situation becomes even more intractable. been trying to generate interest on the part of many developing countries in being The solution to communications in better prepared over the past several years. the Sudan has been, so far, the importation What we find time and time again is that by donors of radio equipment to monitor a disaster is an opportunity. It is only in and report from the disaster scene, the immediate aftermath of a disaster that everything from walkie-talkies to single countries with very limited resources find sideband radios to satellite transceivers. that they can focus on their needs for The recent introduction by the Norwegians disaster mitigation. I would encourage the of mobile maritime satellite terminals, such World Bank in any way that they can to as had been effective in the Jamaican and take advantage of such opportunities. Armenian disasters, is a trend in disaster relief communications which we will see expand dramatically in the near futu- For us at OFDA, it has the advantage of portability and relative invulnerability. I would like to suggest to those of you from the World Bank that invulnerability may translate into sustainability for development. Whether you opt for satellite or terrestrial communications systems to support your development projects, please make sure your system will still be operable when the next flood, earthquake, or hurricane 61 Technology Transfer and Disasters Francisco R. Sagasti Division Chief Strategic Planning and Review Department The World Bank I would like to offer a few thoughts based primarily on my experience in my "The primay technological issue country, Peru, which has encountered all readng dster management kinds of disasters originating both by rega. .fng a m an g natural and human intervention. We have concems mobilizing and organang suffered our share of earthquakes, floods, technological capabilities in the droughts, and terrorism. face of extremely scarce resources, competing prioriWeandmlil As has been emphasized by the an mullipk previous speakers, the primary technological issue regarding disaster management concerns mobilizing and organizing technological capabilities in the capabilities in a more systematic fashion face of extremely scarce resources, to avoid the indiscriminate importation by competing priorities, and multiple developing countries of technologies and difficulties. Through my experience with practices that increase vulnerability to disasters in Peru and within the U.N. natural hazards. Issues of excessive Advisory Committee on Science and logging, reliance on chemical technologies Technology, where we have dealt primarily in agriculture, and land-use practices are with drought and desertification, I believe cases in point. There is also a question there are three sets of problem and policy referring to science that is closely related consequences related to technology transfer to technology transfer: How can we use and disasters. scientific knowledge available internationally to prepare for disasters? The first issue concerns technology transfer and how it may exacerbate In the case of Peru, we faced the vulnerability to natural hazards: How can difficult problem of grappling with the we use our technological assessment uncertainties and predictions related to Francisco R. Sagasti is currently a Division Chief with the Strategic Planning and Review Department at the World Bank; Adjunct Professor of Decision Sciences at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania; and Chair of the United Nations Advisory Committee on Science and Technology for Development. Mr. Sagasti has extensive experience in science and technology policy, management science, and development planning. He has held of variety of positions with numerous public, private, and academic institutions, including the government of Peru, the United Nations, Organization of American States, and Secretariat of the Andean Common Market. 62 the "El Nino" phenomena, in which changes become paramount, particularly when it in Pacific Ocean currents caused severe comes to developing methodologies to meteorological disturbances as well as integrate scientific and technological drastic reductions in fishery yields. information into government policies and Although we knew this was a recurrent plans. phenomena, whenever El Nino was brought to the attention of the National Planning The second set of problems which Commission or the Ministries of Industry, has been touched upon by the speakers Agriculture, or Fisheries, it became clear this morning is the question of technology that it was extremely difficult to develop policy to assist in providing a quick medium- and long-term plans which could response to natural disasters. Here, the take into consideration the 11- to 13-year main problem is not one of technological cycle within which El Nino struck with capability, the main problem centers on extreme severity. organizing ourselves to utilize what is available in a more effective fashion. Time and again, in the case of Peru, I have seen "Cwrently, neither the intellectual proposals to set up emergency networks for t, no her til pradio and TV. These proposals never tools nor the polkical presur materialized mainly because of the groups exist which could enable us incapacity or inability of the central to make intelligent choices about government to absorb and transform the long-tern, uncertain events, information into something that could be especially when we have to acted upon. And, as has been mentioned compare provisions for these earlier, this issue touches unredictable events with short- telecommunications, power restoration, ten r ore affocatonprobkm medical technology transfer, and water supply. The principal question in this regard As it was pointed out quite clearly is how can we invest our resources, time, to several planners at that time, if one and effort for preparedness activities when could predict with certainty the occurrence we do not know exactly when or where a of an extreme event, then incorporating disaster will strike? 'nstituting the prediction into a project evaluation or preparedness measures absorbs a development plan would be feasible. But, considerable amount of resources -- this when all that could be provided were resource allocation problem must be general statements indicating that an event addressed. Currently, neither the might or might not happen with varying intellectual tools nor the political pressure degrees of severity, it became difficult to groups exist which could enable us to make incorporate that event into projects or intelligent choices about long-term, development plans. This was often the uncertain events, especially when we have case despite scientists' rough predictions of to compare provisions for these the probability and frequency with which unpredictable events with short-term an extreme event such as El Nino would resource allocation problems. occur. The third set of issues involves In this regard, questions of technological applications for recovery and technology transfer and the use of scientific reconstruction, which, having been information at the international level addressed earlier by Kenneth Piddington, 63 will not receive a great deal of attention still extremely difficult to account for in this discussion. However, I would disaster vulnerability. I remember when caution here, and once again I must refer one scientist, who linked the El Nino to the Peruvian experience, on the reliance phenomena to increased sun spot activity, of what is commonly called popular came to the National Planning Institute in wisdom. I am reminded of the popular Peru suggesting that investment programs instinct that exists in Peru to reconstruct, take sun spot cycles into account. You especially after floods, exactly in the same can imagine how the economists with their place where a disaster has occurred. traditional frame of mind replied to this Reliance on popular wisdom can indeed be suggestion. a very costly exercise and lead to tragic mistakes. Modifying popular wisdom requires major changes in the habits and Dit offer the opportunity to points of view of grassroots organizations, redo in the ght way. Bu individual citizens, and neighborhood even tings iasteprigt ay.Bt groups. I would like to caution against an een though a daste preents an unquestioned reliance on popular wisdom opportunty that was not bagained when it has shown, at least in the case of for, problems of resource my own country, not to be very "wise". allocation, technological choices, and institutional capabilities may Let us also acknowledge that a oition a pas icen disasters offer the opportunity to redo a things in the right way. But, even though a disaster presents an opportunity that was not bargained for, problems of resource allocation, technological choices, and Concerning technologies for disaster institutional capabilities may limit options preparedness, I would like to address a in the disaster-stricken area. number of very pertinent points mentioned by Mr. Webster. The problem is not one When studying the application of of technological availability; we have technology for disaster management, we technological choices. The issue focuses also must differentiate between timing and on the correct combination of technology function: technology and science before a for communications and for the expeditious disaster strikes, technology to respond restoration of services. And, in turn, these quickly in the immediate aftermath of a issues highlight the need to manage the disaster, and technology to reconstruct content and behavior of mass media. with a longer-term perspective. Obviously, policy issues also emerge specific to these I recall a case in Peru that is three time periods. In the first case, the particularly applicable to the discussion main policy issue is the incorporation of today. In 1979, a seismologist predicted low-probability, high-risk, uncertain events with great precision that an earthquake into our normal project evaluation criteria. would hit Peru in August 1980. This Unfortunately, we do not know how to prediction was widely disseminated and incorporate extreme events into project created all kinds of havoc, including design with great skill, and unless we do, reduced tourism and capital flight. This it will be extremely difficult to take disaster case represented a typical incident in which risk into account. Even when you have the mass media, for sensationalistic some degree of regularity built into the purposes, exacerbated a fairly dubious system, such as in the El Nino case, it is scientific prediction based on a theory 64 which was totally untested and which, in the last analysis, proved unfounded. Handling this type of situation is not a technological problem, it is a policy problem related to the regulation of mass media behavior. Finally, there have been questions about technological choices for reconstruction. When a number of strategic planners, including myself, began to look into the disaster preparedness issue last year, we discovered that Alcira Kreimer in the Environment Department and others in the Bank were also looking into the area. We found that there was no need for us to raise disaster reduction as a strategic issue when others were looking at disasters more comprehensively. This conference is a demonstration of the Bank's interest on the topic. What we may try to do over the next year is to focus on the rehabilitation of physical infrastructure after disasters. This is going to be probably one of the main medium- and long-term strategic issues in terms of technology choice and opportunities offered by disasters, both manmade and natural. One of the items we are evaluating at present is, in the face of reduced East - West tensions, what opportunities are emerging to engage in reconstruction, especially following more than two decades of conflict in several countries. We are beginning to look systematically at what we may do in terms of reconstruction. And, of course, there is also the possibility of looking at these opportunities from the perspectives of natural disasters. 65 Natural Disaster Mitigation: World Bank Operational Policy Issues Alberto Harth Operations Adviser Central Operations Department The World Bank I would like to take this opportunity to thank Alcira Kreimer and the Bank's #In order to assist governments in Environment Department for providing this gaining access to new developments in forum to exchange views on global experiences in disasters and development, hazard technology, the donor disseminate country and regional community needs to keep abreast of experiences, review donor policies, and set such developments. Special attention the stage for the International Decade for is needed to make available cost- Natural Disaster Reduction. efective early warning systems, such The issues of communications and as satellite taking for huricanes, technology in disaster reduction have been f l a oughts, a red covered amply by the previous panel technologies for detecting and members, and will therefore not be the disseminating information on subject of my presentation. I will earthquakes. - The World Bank's concentrate my comments on the Bank's research complex is well-placed to emergency lending policy approved by our disseminate hazard prevention Board of Directors last November as a backdrop for the afternoon presentations techno a part of i age a on country and regional experiences. And as a contributor to the International since the Operations Policy Unit is about Decade." to issue a staff directive on emergency assistance, I will also discuss operational practices in emergency lending at the Bank. I will then tie in the Bank's emergency assistance program with the subject of vulnerability and mitigation. Alberto Harth is currently an Operations Adviser to the Central Operations Department of the World Bank. Previously, he was Deputy Division Chief in the South Asia Urban and Water Supply Division. Mr. Harth has participated in earthquake reconstruction projects to Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua, and flood reconstruction projects in Sudan and Yemen P.D.R. He has served on the advisory committees for the China, Bangladesh, Jamaica, and Mexico emergency projects. He is the author of the new operation directive on emergency recovery assistance, and a member of the Bank's Task Force on Natural Disaster Reduction. Mr. Harth received both his master's degree and Ph.D. in urban studies from MIT and joined the Bank in 1980. 66 Inding Trends emergency operations; evaluated the performance of emergency assistance, World Bank participation in the including project performance in hazard wake of a calamity goes back to its first reduction; and set out criteria for mounting reconstruction operations after World War and designing lending operations. The II. Thereafter, during the first two decades paper contained two main themes: the of the Bank's life, project lending was need to continue to emphasize flexibility virtually the only form of lending. Then, in the design of our lending for during the 1970s, there were two or three emergencies and the need to strengthen projects in response to emergencies per support for prevention and mitigation of year. The first World Bank staff guidelines future emergencies. Let me summarize the for assisting countries after an emergency paper's broad conclusions before discussing were issued only in mid-1984. their implications for operational practice. The review indicated that the Bank "In order to meet World Bank critefia was more successful in past emergency for enwgency ken&g an opoperations when (i) there was strong shouW demonsote tha ther are governmental commitment to recovery; (ii) there was Bank involvement soon after prospects for mitigating the impact of the emergency; (iii) a comprehensive futureenergencies. There is littlepoint recovery program was prepared as the in restoring the preexisting situation if basis for a multisectoral operation; (iv) a similar hazwd is likely to recur in the the operation's objectives were limited in fitr, even if the hazd is yer scope and number; (v) there were prior a country and agency relations which allowed us to make decisions quickly; and (vi) implementation and institutional arrangements for recovery were not Although there is no strong trend complex. in the number of emergency events to which the World Bank has responded, the The criteria for mounting an volume of lending for emergencies has emergency operation were also clarified in risen sharply in the last few years. This the policy paper: (i) efforts should focus fiscal year, six disaster reconstruction loans on economic recovery rather than on relief; were approved and eleven non-emergency (ii) there should be demonstrable economic loans were reallocated to a total of five benefits; (iii) the event should be of a countries, in addition to a rehabilitation significant scale; (iv) short- or medium- project in Mozambique (see Table 1). term action should be urgent; and (v) there Eleven ongoing operations were should be prospects for mitigating future restructured in several sectors to assist emergencies. Our review also outlined with recovery effort in five countries. design considerations such as flexibility in retroactive financing and appropriate policy conditionality. Emergency Policy The performance review on our The policy paper on Bank lending emergency operations indicated the for emergencies, which our Board endorsed following: (i) the frequency of project last November, reviewed past practice; implementation delays was about the same outlined successful characteristics of former as those experienced in normal Bank 67 Table 1. World Bank Lending Operations FY1989 Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Projects and Reallocations Country Project Title Disaster ELRS* Bangladesh Third Flood Rehabilitation Flood Jamaica Emergency Reconstruction Import Project Hurricane Nepal Municipal Development and Earthquake Earthquake Emergency Housing Reconstruction Project Nepal Earthquake Emergency Schools Earthquake Rehabilitation Project Pakistan Flood Damage Restoration Project Flood Sudan Emergency Flood Reconstruction Project Flood Othtr** Mozambique Urban Rehabilitation Project Civil War Reallocations Cost, -tica Atlantico Agricultural Development Project Hurricane India Water Supply and Sewerage Project Drought India Gujarat Urban Development Project Drought Jamaica Water Supply and Sewerage Technical Assistance Hurricane Jamaica Fourth Power Project Hurricane Mexico Urban Transport Project Hurricane Sudan New Halfa Irrigation Rehabilitation Project Flood Sudan Blue Nile Pump Schemes Rehabilitation Flood Sudan Agricultural Services Project Flood Sudan Gezira Rehabilitation Project Flood Sudan Third Highway Project Flood * Emergency Recovery Loans * Other - Civil War Rehabilitation 68 operations; (ii) project components designed to address disaster prevention agrith excqdon of very small and mitigation as a whole were not very cownries where we may only have one successful; and (iii) only rarely did the Bank make natural hazard reduction a lending operation every second or third major theme in its dialogue with borrowers year, the macro-environment for or an important element in its lending lending has become very complex program, even in countries that seemed Mitigation components have to particularly prone to natural disasters. compete for priority and scarce resources with a wide range of other New Directions development issues. Recent operational practices have been evolving in several areas. First, the Second, we have streamlined focus has shifted to broad emergency procedures and documentation for assistance, not just lending, and to emergency assistance by (i) involving senior economic recovery, rather than physical managers early in the decision-making reconstruction alone. Second, special process; (ii) processing loans with procedures for processing emergency abbreviated documentation; and (iii) assistance have been put in place. Third, providing the option to create a Bank-wide we now endorse quick-disbursing features, advisory group convened by the country such as import financing, for emergency director. loans. And fourth, greater prominence has been given to prevention and mitigation. Third, though quick-disbursing I will discuss these elements in greater assistance was previously allowed only detail. under adjustment lending situations and was therefore linked to macroeconomic The Bank has broadened the scope conditionality, the World Bank can now of its assistance by (i) reassessing the support quick-disbursing assistance in existing portfolio and allowing greater selected cases, particularly for financing flexibility in restructuring ongoing loans (six imports, if it is clearly linked to a well- ongoing loans were restructured in Mexico defined recovery program. This was done and five in Sudan); (ii) supporting a most recently in Jamaica. sequence of loans and mitigation efforts in countries which are particularly disaster And fourth, our operational policy prone (such as Bangladesh); (iii) including gives greater prominence to mitigation and mitigation components in non-emergency prevention. In order to meet World Bank projects (such as the La Paz Municipal criteria for emergency lending, an Development Project in Bolivia); (iv) operation should demonstrate that there galvanizing multi-donor support, are prospects for mitigating the impact of particularly for events affecting many future emergencies. There is little point sectors (such as Sri Lanka and Sudan); in restoring the preexisting situation if a and (v) preparing freestanding prevention similar hazard is likely to recur in the and mitigation projects in disaster-prone future, even if the hazard is years away. countries (the first operation has been Steps should be taken to prevent a identified in Mexico), in addition to loans recurrence of the emergency or to mitigate after specific emergencies. its impact. An emergency lending operation itself may not be the only or the 69 best vehicle for undertaking mitigation year, the macro-environment for lending activities, but it is usually a ve-y good place has become very complex. Mitigation to start because of the heightened political components have to compete for priority support for risk reduction which occurs and scarce resources with a wide range of after a disaster. other development issues. In a given country, we may encounter issues of economic adjustment, poverty alleviation, Mitigation Issues and Possible Approaches human resource development, food security, environmental degradation, rapid Why have the World Bank's past urbanization, etc., which need to be projects been less than successful in weighed against the concern for disaster mitigation and prevention? I would like mitigation. This is particularly true in non- to point to four reasons and suggest emergency situations. In the World Bank's possible approaches which are linked to new country department structure, it is at (i) our small stock of mitigation projects the country strategy level that the priorities and our limited expertise in the area; (ii) have to be set and support for mitigation the increasingly complex macro-context of assistance established. Bangladesh is an country interventions; (iii) the changing instance where this is happening, but it nature of mitigation technology; and (iv) could also occur in numerous Pacific Rim the complexity of fostering institutional countries prone to earthquakes or in the capability. Caribbean and Asian countries which are prone to hurricanes. With the exception of a reconstruction loan after a specific disaster, The third point concerns technology. the World Bank has not yet developed Approaches and technologies for reducing broad project experience on the various hazard are becoming increasingly available forms of disaster mitigation. This means and are continuing to develop rapidly. In that the World Bank will need to do more order to assist governments in gaining operational research on mitigation and access to new developments in hazard evaluate past efforts more thoroughly, technology, the donor community needs particularly for recent efforts such as the to keep abreast of such developments. Chinese Da Xing An Ling Forest Fire Special attention is needed to make Project and the Colombian Popayan available cost-effective early warning Earthquake Reconstruction Project. It also systems, such as satellite tracking for means that the World Bank will need to hurricanes, floods, and droughts, and rely on outside expertise and on closer improved technologies for detecting and collaboration with NGOs and other disseminating information on earthquakes. international and bilateral agencies, such The World Bank's research complex is as the United Nations Disaster Relief Co- well-placed to disseminate hazard ordinator (UNDRO) and Office of U.S. prevention technology as part of its agenda Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA). The and as a contributor to the International International Decade should assist in Decade. focusing more activity on preparedness and mitigation. The fourth issue addresses the The second point concerns the complex institutional dimension of making context of our overall country assistance prevention and mitigation work. program. With the exception of very small Institutional capability issues have countries where we may only have one traditionally been, and continue to be, lending operation every second or third difficult and pervasive. The World Bank's 70 annual reviews on project implementation and supervision often single out institutional issues which cut across sectoral and country lines. In the aftermath of a disaster, such weaknesses are magnified because emergencies involve politically sensitive issues, complex logistical problems, and highly visible actions. Institutional weaknesses are typically manifested as breakdowns in public administration mechanisms, poor inter- agency coordination, political interference, inadequate wages and working conditions, and a dearth of trained and motivated managers and technical staff. Donors, therefore, need to assess the likely levels of managerial. performance required for mitigation efforts by adapting the objectives and scope of assistance to existing capabilities and by. enhancing managerial capabilities of civil protection agencies. This is no small task. Meetings like this one can help set the stage for improving mitigation assistance. 71 Comments by the Panel Moderator N. Erik A. Arrhenius Principal Adviser on Science and Technology Office of the Vice President, Sector Policy and Research The World Bank Before we begin the question and answer period, I would like to provide a "Today we are confronted with a framework for the ensuing discussion by situation where we can dejinitely referring back to Mr. Piddington's introduction this morning. He mentioned an iread fr q of that it is difficult to discern between extremw evena. This trend will be natural and manmade disasters, which is a result ofourpast management of indeed a great problem. From that, I natue and will be partially due to would like to jump to Mr. Sagasti, who clinate change caused by the discussed the milieu in which extreme emissions of carbon dioxide and events occur. other greenhouse gases. One zould ask, is there always a stable environment? I would say no. One has to expect the environment to be in the ecosystem are overruled so that we unstable because extreme events are have as stable a system as possible to work integral to the ecological, biochemical, and in. During that phase, we usually did not geological systems. Nature is by no means have the capacity nor the economy to as good as some people say. I would ask, produce this stabilization. With the advent good to whom? Why should nature be of a stronger economies, we can stabilize better to man than to other species? nature; however, with more vigorous economies, we have also caused the In the history of man's exploitation destabilization of the nature. The of nature, there have been two phases: influence of the present growth of The trend to stabilize the inherently population is just one example. unstable nature -- to see that fluctuations N. Erik A. Arrhenius serves as Principal Adviser on Science and Technology to the Vice President of Sector Policy and Research at the World Bank. He is currently on leave as Professor of the Management of Natural Resources and as Director of the Institute for the Management of Natural Resources from the University of Stockholm. Mr. Arrhenius has been the Science Advisor to the Prime Minister of Sweden; Science Editor of AMBIO, an international journal of the human environment; and Secretary General for the Swedish Parliament's Commission on Natural Resources and the Environment. He has researched and taught genetics, biochemistry, environmental toxicology, natural resource management, and environmental protection. He received his bachelor's degree in genetics, chemistry, and zoology; his Ph.D. in zoephysiology; and his D.Sc. in zoophysiology and biochemistry. 72 Today we are confronted with a situation where we can definitely expect an increased frequency of extreme events. This trend will be a result of our past management of nature and will be partially due to climate change caused by the emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The higher incidence of natural hazards can by no means be averted, even with the most successful innovations. We will have to live with more extreme events while the population increases to well over ten billion. This brings me to the issue which Mr. Harth discussed, namely, the need to anticipate future disasters. We have seen that the Bank's natural disaster reduction program in the past has not been strong. When we look toward the future, I think what we must address is how we can integrate disaster reduction with general development. 73 Panel 3. Regional Efforts for Disaster Reduction Dr. Jose Luis Zeballos, Pan American Health Organization Stephen 0. Bender, Organization of American States Glenn S. Morgan, The World Bank Stephen F. Lintner, moderator, The World Bank eej Summary of Panel Proceedings Securing adequate resources and Dr. Zeballos said that a multisectoral expertise for disaster reduction in the 1990s approach must be taken and the overall will be a daunting task, especially for many health care and emergency response developing countries. One of the options systems must be integrated. PAHO's for these countries will be to regionalize disaster preparedness program has disaster reduction strategies and resources, embraced this approach in its objective to and take advantage of the collaboration of strengthen the response capacity within efforts and economies of scale. Regional member countries. One of the program's strategies also will be the most practical most important features is to foster self- way to manage transboundary natural sufficiency during the most critical times of hazards. an emergency, the immediate aftermath of a calamity when the majority of injured The third panel of the Colloquium begin to seek medical assistance and when examined how regional organizations are foreign aid has yet to be mobilized. facilitating the exchange information and resources, and how they can foster Dr. Zeballos also summarized issues cooperation for regional disaster that need to be considered when preparing preparedness plans in the future. The a comprehensive health emergency plan. session also reviewed applications for Hospitals, the focal point of health satellite remote sensing for specific types response, must be able to react quickly and of hazards. effectively. This does not only mean that hospitals must be prepared to respond to Dr. Jose Luis Zeballos of the Pan- a mass casualty situation, but also, American Health Organization (PAHO) contingency plans must be drawn for opened the panel with a discussion on hospitals to respond to a wide range of disaster reduction priorities in the health scenarios, including natural and sector in Latin America and the Caribbean. technological disasters. In addition, many hospital buildings in Latin America and the Dr. Zeballos argued that the Caribbean are old, vulnerable to hazards, Americas are highly vulnerable to extreme and in need of structural reinforcement. events, with 150,000 deaths and 500,000 injuries ceied by disasters over the last Concluded his speech, Dr. Zeballos two decades. This makes disaster recommended several projects to launch preparedness programs in the health sector the International Decade in the Americas. imperative. Recognizing that the health These projects included setting up pilot sector is an important component of programs for disaster preparedness in disaster management, PAHO has been hospitals and establishing a center for actively involved in disaster response regional disaster mitigation, which, as part efforts, as a liaison for mobilizing and of its activities, could conduct research on coordinating health relief assistance and health issues and public education. as a source of expertise for formulating disaster preparedness activities in the Stephen Bender of the Organization health sector. of American States (OAS) followed Dr. Zeballos and broadened the discussion In planning for health preparedness, from health preparedness to planning and 76 general disaster reduction activities in Latin The International Decade provides the America and the Caribbean. mandate and opportunity to pursue hazard management in a concerted, international Mr. Bender described the OAS's effort and to integrate disaster reduction Natural Hazard Project, which has initiated and sustainability into development policy. activities to reduce disaster vulnerability through integrated development planning. Mr. Bender said progress is being Through technical cooperation, training, made in moving toward these directions. and technology transfer, the project has He cited the shifting of once single- introduced cost-effective risk assessment focussed development mandates to and mitigation measures and trained mid- embrace a more multidisciplinary and level professionals. ecological approach. Also, mid-level professionals who understand the In addition, Mr. Bender identified importance of disaster reduction are key directions disaster reduction programs climbing the hierarchial ranks of must take in the 1990s: government and beginning to assume leadership roles. - Members of the donor and financial communities must learn Mr. Bender concluded by stressing to address risk management on an that disaster mitigation efforts must be anticipatory, non-crisis basis rather intensified in the next 10 years. than on a reactive basis. If the Information and technology needs to be Decade objectives are to be met, disseminated, more professionals need to this group also must interact more be trained in risk reduction techniques, intimately with the scientific and and equipment for lowering vulnerability technical community and with needs to be procured by national, regional, disaster-related organizations. and international organizations. Furthermore, institutions with expertise in - The integral relationship between natural disasters must be bolstered. In disasters, the environment, and regard t. :he development community, development must be recognized by hazard assessment and mitigation needs policy makers and assimilated into to be integrated into development policy their directives and projects. To be and practice, especially in the early stages truly sustainable, development must of project preparation when disaster take into account environmental mitigation can be the least disruptively considerations, including natural anJ most effectively introduced. disturbances. In the final presentation of the - If calamities are not curtailed by panel, Glenn Morgan of the World Bank, effective disaster reduction policies focussed on one area of technology with and practices in the near future, widespread potential to reduce the impact development activities will be of natural hazards, remote sensing. increasingly shaped by natural and manmade catastrophes. Financial Mr. Morgan explained that remote assistance for disaster relief and sensing can play a critical role in all facets reconstruction will grow substantially of disaster management, from pre-disaster and consume larger and larger planning to disaster monitoring to post- portions of foreign assistance disaster assessment. The technology can budgets. be indispensable for securing accurate and 77 timely information about the nature of a summarized the central themes that hazard, or for gathering rapid, low-cost emerged from the panel discussion and reconnaissance information over large, provided several prescriptions for often isolated areas where data collection approaching disaster management the may otherwise be very cumbersome. 1990s. However, Mr. Morgan remarked, Mr. Lintner said the traditional remote sensing applications differ emergency response approach to dealing considerably depending on the time frame with natural disasters must shift to more of the hazard (sudden-onset versus slow- proactive strategies focussed on disaster onset disasters) and the size and degree of prevention and preparedness. The panel's surface features altered. For example, discussion on regional initiatives in health remote sensing can effectively gauge and planning for Latin America and the disasters which markedly change the Caribbean and advancements in remote landscape, such as floods or wildfires. sensing demonstrates how approaches to Sudden-onset disasters caused by geological disaster management are changing. To disturbances, such as earthquakes and advance disaster reduction efforts, Mr. landslides, cannot usually be monitored Lintner recommended several areas to during the actual disaster event, but the pursue. Tools for evaluating and geological features and indicators of the incorporating risk into the planning process hazard can be detected before the calamity need to be developed. Decision makers occurs. Meteorological applications of and planners need to be sensitized, through remote sensing are routinely used to public outreach, about the cost of ignoring predict and track major storms. natural hazards; the range of professions working in disaster management needs to Despite the numerous applications be expanded; and those specialists currently of remote sensing, Mr. Morgan said the working in the disaster management field, technology is limited by certain factors such as health experts and engineers, need inherent to the hazard. Obtaining early to review their roles and improve their warning data for slow-onset disasters, such efficiency. Mr. Lintner concluded on an as drought or famine, is still in the optimistic note, claiming that significant experimental stage. Acquiring timely opportunities are emerging to manage information for some sudden-onset disasters in new and innovative ways. disasters may be virtually impossible, such as in the case of earthquakes and landslides, or for floods and hurricanes where cloud cover may obstruct the satellite's view of the hazard. Because of the these limitations, ground verification often is critical to support remote sensing data. Nonetheless, Mr. Morgan hailed remote sensing technology for its potential to contribute significantly to disaster reduction efforts, especially in the areas of risk assessment, disaster preparedness, and general development planning. Following the three presentations, Stephen Lintner, the moderator, 78 Response Efforts in Health Emergency Preparedness Jose Luis Zeballos, M.D. Medical Officer Emergency Preparedness and Disaster Relief Coordination Program Pan American Health Organization The countries of the Americas are highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Disaster management from the History records a series of events which hedth poi of view requie a have not only occasioned the loss of lives poin vw reuira and a multitude of injured, but they have also caused serious damage to the approach. Repaation for infrastructure and economies of the erergency situaions should bepart countries, significantly delaying efforts for of normal activities for both the socioeconomic development. pubfic and pivate health sectors, Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, with the acte partcipain of hurricanes, floods, avalancher and droughts othei relevant sectom have caused approximately 150,000 deaths and 500,000 injuries in the last two decades in the Latin American and Caribbean region (see Annex 1). Social violence, which affects various countries in Central America, has forced Vulnerability to technological hundreds of thousands of people to take disasters, such as chemical accidents, refuge in neighboring countries or to live release of toxic and radioactive substances, in temporary dwellings in their own fires, and explosions, are associated with countries as displaced persons. In both inorganic industrial development and urban cases, the already precarious situation of growth. Gas explosions and accidents the least favored populations, who are involving radioactive material, as generally located in the rural areas, is experienced in Mexico and Brazil, expose made worse not only by family the vulnerability of populations if dismemberment but by exposure to the inadequate preventive and safety measures risk of disease, aggravated by crowded are taken. conditions and insufficient accessibility to Jose Luis Zeballos, M.D., MPH is the Medical Officer for the Emergency Preparedness and Disaster Relief Coordination Program at the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). Since 1981, when Dr. Zeballos joined PAHO, he has worked in several disaster-related areas, including disaster management, assessment of health needs, hospital disaster preparedness, and operational research. He has acquired extensive experience in disaster management while working with developing countries, and has been instrumental in numerous post-disaster operations affecting the Latin American region, both at the field level and at PAHO headquarters. 79 basic services. "Countries have achieved Fortunately, large-scale disasters sgjnt ave aie are not frequent occurrences; nevertheless, it should not pass unnoticed that their lopnt of thei natilO long-term effects are usually much more uemagncyprogAWMn. Nav eA significant in the context of socioeconomic epeiences observed in recent development. This aspect has particular disastes demonstrate the need to significance in natural disasters which, in fieth strengthen a nation's own addition to the human suffering and to m a d t damage to the physical infrastructure, can .ogerwof-sufficktut cause huge losses in agriculture and f, atkastn the livestock, sectors which constitute the most critical moments of the economic base in many countries of the emergency - the first hours after a Americas. As an example, we can mention disaster has occurred when it is not the effects caused by the phenomenon p ible to count on foreign called El Nino, which caused floods and ash drought, and provoked large livestock and agro-industrial losses from 1982 to 1983. In recent times, we have had the Organization (PAHO) requested that the effects of Hurricane Gilbert, which severely Director establish a technical unit for affected Jamaica and Mexico, and disasters. The unit was charged with Hurricane Joan, which caused enormous defining policy for the organization; damage to Nicaragua, parts of Costa Rica, formulating plans of action for the various Panama, and Colombia. types of catastrophes; carrying out an inventory of human resources; training Disaster management from the personnel where needed; distributing health point of view requires a guides and technical manuals; promoting multidisciplinary and multisectoral operational research to meet the needs of approach. Preparation for emergency countries in emergency situations; and situations should be part of normal monitoring the establishment of effective activities for both the public and private coordination with the specialized agencies health sectors, with the active participation or the United Nations, the International of other relevant sectors. Intersectoral Red Cross, and other na )nal and coordination in the preparatory phase has international organizations that lend obvious advantages, not only for an assistance in cases of disaster. effective inter-institutional response during the emergency stage, but also for mutual Later, PAHO'S field of action was cooperation in developmental activities and broadened through other resolutions of in the period after a disaster. the directing bodies in which the importance of incorporating technological disasters and provocations by man as a The Pan American Health Organization consequence of social violence was pointed and its Role in Emergency Preparedness out. Other, more specialized technical and Response to Disasters divisions of the organization are occupied with emergencies arising out of epidemics In October 1976, the Directing and zoonoses. Council of the Pan American Health 80 The objectives of PAHO's The activities of the program during Emergency Preparedness and Disaster the emergency are especially oriented Relief Coordination Program are as toward support in the evaluation of priority follows: health needs for mobilization of aid, coordination of international assistance, (i) To promote and support the support with equipment for communication establishment of a technical program via satellite, support of experts, and in the health sector which will be mobilization of personnel. responsible for planning and continuing training prior to disasters Countries have achieved significant and effective response during advances in the development of their emergencies; national emergency programs. Neverthe- less, experiences observed in recent (ii) To promote the development of disasters demonstrate the nezd to further human resources in the health strengthen a nation's own capacity to sector, using a multidisciplinary respond, and thus to foster self-sufficiency approach to manage disasters; at least in the most critical moments of the emergency -- the first hours after a (iii) To stimulate cooperation and disaster has occurred when it is not coordination among the Ministry of possible to count on foreign assistance. Health, sanitary institutions, and nongovernmental organizations in cases of disaster; and Priorities During Emergency Situations (iv) To improve the management of During emergency situations caused health problems after disasters, by disasters, the immediate prioritls are responding in a technically verified to save lives and to provide relief to the and rational way to the emergency affected population. In this sense, the needs determined through objective nucleus of the systematized medical evaluation in conformity with long- response is the immediate delivery of term development goals. medical care in which hospitals play a critical role. One of the main goals of the program consists of rapid, effective Dealing with mass casualties response in the face of health problems constitutes a serious problem in countries, caused by disaster. This will be achieved especially where medical services are by guaranteeing the existence and vitality deficient. A well-organized hospital does of national programs in the health sector not necessarily mean that it is prepared to of every member country. respond to a mass casualty situation in a major emergency. If a hospital is not Thus, preparatory activities involve prepared to adequately respond to various areas of technical cooperation, situations that require complex decision among which are preparations by hospitals making, or if it does not take into account for disaster planning and the care of that hospital staff or their families may victims; sanitary engineering and have been affected by the disaster, then environmental sanitation; surveillance; its response capacity will be less effective. administration of temporary shelters; and logistic coordination and support. Moreover, recent natural disasters have demonstrated that the infrastructure 81 of hospitals is not invulnerable. Many destruction of the ecology and hospitals and health institutions were unreasonable land exploitation constitutes destroyed or severely damaged during the a potential threat. earthquakes in Mexico and El Salvador, and by Hurricane Gilbert in Jamaica (see Annex 2). Teafing wih ms casualtie The vulnerability of hospitals constitutes a serious problem in acquires a major dimension when risk countria, specially where medical factors are overlooked during construction, sevices are dejicienL A well- or when appropriate materials are not used organized hospital does not and quality control is not applied. These necasarily mean that it isprepared situations are aggravated by the absence of to respond to a mass casualty safety measures or contingency plans to s confront events that occur inside the situation in a major emergency. hospitals. A good number of hospitals in Latin America, built during the colonial period, need to reinforce their old Disease surveillance and control of infrastructure and maintenance systems. communicable diseases are important In new facilities, design does not always components in the provision of the medical fulfill safety requirements. care to large populations who are settled in crowded temporary shelters, or to Other priorities during early immigrants who are either carrying diseases response include water supply, shelter, or who are exposed to new diseases for food, and disease control. There is which they are not immunized or prepared. extensive experience in sudden-impact Mental health support and counseling are disasters in which the provision of water also important activities to carry out in supply constitutes a priority; however, little temporary settlements. effort has been made to provide contingency measures for alternative sources of drinking water, or to adapt The International Decade for Natural technology for prompt water purification. Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) Highly vulnerable countries should consider performing a vulnerability analysis of their The United Nations Resolution water supply plants as a priority. A/42/169 approved by the General Assembly in December 1987, "calls upon The logistics of food supply does all Governments to participate during the not constitute a major problem in Decade in the concerted international earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but action for the reduction of natural disasters floods due to hurricanes, tropical storms, and, as appropriate, to establish national or changing rain patterns such as those committees, in cooperation with relevant caused by the El Nino phenomena scientific and technological communities, extensively affect agricultural areas and with a view to surveying available can cause food scarcity. mechanisms and facilities for the reduction of natural hazards, in order to add to, Fortunately, the American region is improve or update existing mechanisms and not often affected by extensive drought facilities and develop a strategy to attain such as those affecting some parts of the desired goals." Africa. However, the systematic 82 Indeed, this initiative will be an of natural disasters. excellent opportunity to support the development or strengthening of national With the goals clearly defined, the disaster preparedness and response task remains to identify the actual activities programs. In PAHO's perspective, the and programmatic priorities. These will be Decade should be a substantive the yardstick used to measure the Decade's contribution to the social sector for the potential benefit to vulnerable groups in alleviation the human suffering in addition developing countries. to the development of high technology and scientific activities. Only a truly concerted effort with the commitment and involvement of the The Decade will also be a unique population, scientific community, and occasion to carry out joint activities. In specialized agencies will result in success this line of thinking, PAHO is seeking to and positive impact. Otherwise, the develop interagency cooperation and philosophy of the IDNDR could lay in an implement joint projects in many key isolated effort confined maybe to health areas in which the World Bank, laboratory research. Inter-American Development Bank, and other developing and bilateral agencies could play an important role in the context of the American region. The following projects which need multisectoral and multidisciplinary approach have been submitted by PAHO to the IDNDR Steering Committee for their consideration: (i) Pilot project for disaster mitigation in hospitals facilities in developing countries. (ii) Regional project for a center on water supply systems and disaster mitigation for Spanish/Portuguese speaking countries. (iii) Public awareness: an inventory and documentation center for Spanish/Portuguese speaking countries. (iv) Latin American center for social and health research on disasters. Many other ideas in the health sector could contribute to the enrichment of the interagency efforts in the preparedness, prevention, and reduction 83 Annex 1. Deaths and Number Affected by Major Disasters Major Earthquakes in Latin America, 1985 - 1989 YEAR COUNTRY DEATHS AFFECT-ED 1985 Argentina 6 38,000 1985 Chile 177 170,000 1985 Mexico 10,000 60,000 1985 Guatemala 12,000 1986 Peru 15 8,000 1986 El Salvador 1,100 500,000 1986 Brazil 1 15,000 1987 Ecuador 300 150,000 Major Volcanic Eruptions in Latin America, 1976 - 1989 YEAR COUNTRY DEATHS AFFECTED 1976 Costa Rica 70,000 1976 Guadeloupe - 75,000 1979 St. Vincent 2 20,000 1982 Mexico 100 60,000 1985 Colombia 23,080 200,000 84 Major Floods in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1986 - 1989 YEAR COUNTRY DEATHS AFTD 1986 Bolivia 29 260,000 1986 Peru 12 150,000 1986 Argentina 3 144,000 1986 Jamaica 54 40,000 1986 Chile 15 54,118 1986 Haiti 79 85,000 1986 Haiti 69 45,000 1986 Colombia 13 250,000 1987 Bolivia 20 20,000 1987 Peru 100 25,000 1987 Chile 55 116,364 1987 Haiti 13 5,000 1987 Guatemala 84 6,500 1988 Costa Rica 9 4,200 1988 Brazil 300 70,000 1988 Argentina 25 57,000 85 Major Hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America 1980 - 1989 YEAR COUNTRY DEATHS AFECTED 1980 St. Vincent N/A 20,000 (Allen) 1980 St. Lucia 17 70,000 (Allen) 1980 Jamaica (Allen) 9 10,000 1980 Haiti (Allen) 220 835,000 1982 Cuba (Albert) 40 105,000 1983 Mexico (Taco) 135 10,000 1985 Cuba (Kate) 2 475,000 1988 Jamaica (Gilbert) 45 500,000 1988 Mexico (Gilbert) 250 200,000 1988 Nicaragua and 116 185,000 others (Joan) Major Volcanic Eruptions in Latin America, 1976 - 1989 YEAR COUNTRY DEATHS AFFECTED 1976 Costa Rica 70,000 1976 Guadeloupe - 75,000 1979 St. Vincent 2 20,000 1982 Mexico 100 60,000 1985 Colombia 23,080 200,000 86 Annex 2. Damaged or Destroyed Hospitals (*) ype of Disaster No. Hositals No. Beds Earthquake, Mexico 13 4,387 (D.F. Sept. 1985) Earthquake, El Salvador 4 1,860 (San Salvador, Oct. 1986) Hurricane, "Gilbert" 22 5,085 (Jamaica, Sept. 1988) Total 39 11,332 () PAHO and other sources. References PAHO's Annual Report, 1987 - 1988 Disaster Preparedness and Relief, Executive Committee Document, 1989 Program Documents 87 Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Latin America and the Caribbean Stephen 0. Bender Project Chief Natural Hazard Project Organization of American States This is not the first time that the Bank, the Organization of American States he bat opponity to lessen (OAS), and other institutions present this disster v erabihy in the region afternoon have joined together to discuss is to a the relationship between disasters and development. Three years ago, we takes place by assuring that hawad gathered for a much smaller discussion, the assessment and miigation are part result of which led to the presentation and of development policy and its publication of the document, Incorporating proams, an4 most irnporta Natural Hazard Assessment and Mitigationthprjcpgw io pme into Project Preparation, published by the the proe ation process Committee of International Development from stages. Institutions on the Environment (CIDIE) and the OAS earlier this year. elements will determine the future success Now, as then, the issue is how to of the common mission of our institutions. better integrate natural hazard This title also encompasses the prime management concerns into the objective of the Natural Hazards Project development planning process. of the OAS. That objective is to reduce disaster vulnerability through the context A comment should be made on the of integrated development planning. The title of the Colloquium, "Disasters, project is a specific technical cooperation Sustainability, and Development." How activity carried out since 1983 by the OAS' well we will be able to manage the Department of Regional Development, complex interactions between these three which has been involved in natural Stephen 0. Bender has been the Project Chief of the Natural Hazard Risk Assessment and Disaster Mitigation Pilot Project at the Organization of American States since 1983. He has worked in most OAS member states on issues of urban and regional development planning, including natural hazard and natural resource management; urban and rural colonization settlement design; housing and potable water; and international technical cooperation program design, administration, and training. He most recently guided the development of the OAS Natural Hazards Project from its conception to a major technical assistance and training program active throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. Mr. Bender holds a master's degree in urban design from Rice University and a bachelor's degree in architecture from the University of Notre Dame. 88 resource management for more than 27 review what a look towards the 1990s years. includes for disaster prevention and mitigation in the region. Through the project's three principal and interrelated activities -- technical First of all, let it be said that of the cooperation, training, and technology three major organizational groups related transfer -- we have worked at the countries' to disaster management that function request, often in coordination with several nationally and internationally - natural of the institutions present here, to identify phenomena and engineering research hazards, propose mitigation measures, train entities, emergency preparedness and mid-level professionals from various response agencies, and development disciplines, and introduce effective, cost- planning and financing institutions -- the efficient methods for hazards assessment latter has been the last to deal on a non- and mitigaticn in more than 20 OAS crisis basis with hazard management issues. member states. At the same time, it is the planning community which is in the best position to The primary support for the project act as a catalyst to bring these three groups has come from USAID's Office of Foreign together. Planners are both users and Disaster Assistance (OFDA). This office producers of natural hazard information. is primarily responsible for emergency While not often formally charged with the preparedness and response, but it has seen task, planners produce hazard evaluations, fit to provide funds for longer-term particularly in the areas of atmospheric and prevention activities. Such support is hydrologic hazards. They should take the presently far too scarce, and it often comes lead in setting research priorities. They from humanitarian assistance offices while are best placed to identify those elements mainstream development assistance of the existing and proposed production agencies usually provide funding only after and service infrastructure which are at risk, the occurrence of a disaster. and for which political, economic, and social decisions dictate that a substantial Prevention activities carried out by reduction in vulnerability is either the project have covered geographical impossible or improbable. Responding to areas as large as the Paraguayan Chaco repeated calls from the emergency and as small as individual villages in management group for hazard maps, Caribbean island countries. They have planners should increase their activities in included subject matter as diverse as flood, hazard assessment as part of development landslide, and desertification evaluation; planning studies. Representatives of all the use of geographic and geo-referenced three groups are here this afternoon; such information systems for planning and encounters must continue. emergency management; satellite remote sensing technology; videos and printed Second, there is a direct, if not manuals for use by local officials; lifeline much discussed, relationship between mapping of critical facilities; and mapping disasters, the environment, and for development planning studies of natural development. In Latin American and the hazards, natural resources, population, and Caribbean, growing population pressure infrastructure information in the form of and increasing demand on the region's data sets, technical reports, and computer- ecosystems have long outstripped the generated maps. environment's capacity to provide sufficient goods and services in a non-value added From this perspective, let us quickly condition, particularly in urban areas. Safe 89 building sites, together with food, fuel, and response to natural and human events, building materials, are all naturally many of which will cause strife, conflict, occurring goods and services in great and disasters. This is in contrast to demand, particularly by the urban poor. previous shaping forces such as the As their immediate availability has become availability of broad expanses of scarce, these goods and services must be uninhabited or little developed forests, brought from distant sources. Value must valleys, and plains; the creation of entire be added in the form of energy, new cities built around the extraction or transportation, transformation, transformation of a single resource; and commercialization, and profit, to name the the single purpose extension of most common components. These infrastructure networks to colonize components are often the substance of remaining large tracts of land. Natural development plans and investments. and human events in the future will dictate the location, beneficiaries, affected sectors, and providers of financial support, often "We mus* avoid a situation where without the availability of alternatives in disaster refief becomes synonymous the traditional context of development. wfth developmeWt a%*wl4 and whfre For the region, we must avoid a post-disaster reconstruction dePletes situation where disaster relief becomes scarce resources otherwise destined for synonymous with development assistance, new investments." and where post-disaster reconstruction depletes scarce resources otherwise destined for new investments. We must be vigilant over institutional divisions Building sites safe from natural between disaster management and hazards, pollution, and accidents must development assistance so as not to create often be engineered for homes, businesses, a void in policies, programs, and projects and public infrastructure. But far too which address the utilization of resources often, disaster mitigation is limited to on- in the face of ever-increasing demands and site design, which at best allows for the vulnerability, particularly of the poor. passing on of the hazard. In the worst case, the inhabitants have neither the Fourth, the upcoming Decade for technical nor the financial means to reduce Disaster Reduction gives all of us a the vulnerability even of their own mandate to affect the way development endeavors. will take place, particularly with regard to If sustainability includes the lessening disaster vulnerability through continuing provision of safe building sites, development planning. then the environment, whether in rural or To some extent, time is on our side. urban areas, must be managed in an Mid-level professionals in public and integrated way with the understanding of private service will mature during the how natural events impact their Decade and by its end, they will have surroundings, both in terms of their assumed leadership positions in their attributes and hazards. respective sectors. Sectoral programs and d dprojects, recently identified and those yet Third, during the remaining years to come, can be shaped by a planning of this century and beyond, development process that includes hazard analysis and theory and practice will be shaped to an asecto ofprpitemigin ever-increasing degree by the timely a selection of appropriate mitigation 90 measures. Single-focus development mandates, so prevalent during the past "Single-focus development two decades, are giving way to mandat4 so prevalent duing the multisectoral and interdisciplinary approaches which concentrate on the P O t av competition inherent in assuring the to multisectoral and continuous use of resources and the need interdisciplinaiyapproacherwhich for conflict resolution. This is of particular concentrate on the competition relevance to disaster reduction. The inherent in assungthe continuous attractiveness of creating a specialty area use of rources and the need for out of each new development focus can c and should give way to a better conflict resolution. understanding on the part of all involved disciplines of the importance of considering the consequences of natural events. For the planning community, the challenge of the Decade is particularly What,' then, is of relevance and important because planning mechanisms importance to the region? at the national, sub-national, and local levels in most countries are already in First of all, we must recognize that place. The best opportunity to lessen the next decade presents an opportunity to disaster vulnerability in the region is to continue important work already begun. affect the way development takes place by Increased support is needed to further assuring that hazard assessment and expand and share the knowledge and mitigation are part of development policy experience already gained in disaster and its programs, and, most importantly, preparedness and response. Policies, the project preparation process from the programs, and projects are in place which earliest stages. will help to prepare public and private sectors alike in their response to disasters. A three-part approach is called for: The countries of the region are voicing their concerns, priorities, and needs for First, mechanisms exist for the new and better information, technology, creation and distribution of basic hazard training, and equipment. There exists information briefs to be incorporated into skilled professionals and technicians who country development strategies, can and should benefit from further environmental profiles, natural resource participation in international activities, but atlases, preliminary mission reports, project who also are willing and able to carry out programming documents, and other similar requested activities in the region as well items. as in their own countries. Second, training focus areas, course Likewise, research and engineering content, and institutional support institutions exist which have long dealt mechanisms have been identified to offer with hazard assessment, particularly in the programs in hazard analysis, mitigation area of geologic hazards. It is time to measure selection, and hazard assessment initiate new activities as well as support and mapping as part of multisectoral, existing endeavors as these institutions set interdisciplinary development planning out priorities in terms of training, studies. technology transfer, and information sharing. 91 Third, professionals from the region national and national level, to reinforce the with academic preparation and disaster- use of personnel and information that is related experience are available to available and that will become available continue their work in development through the actions described above. And planning and training. of course, the planning community, which must take an increasing role in long-term The constraints to take full disaster prevention, should seek out advantage of these resources will come as opportunities to produce and share no surprise, but they can be addressed. information and experience with the emergency management and research and Through government mandates, engineering communities. funding agency requirements, and development assistance offerings, hazard assessment and mitigation measure selection must be part of the planning process. Without separating out hazards as a sector or an impact analysis operation, all involved disciplines must be prepared to present and discuss disaster vulnerability and to participate in the decision-making process which weighs vulnerability with competing social, economic, political, and financial claims for resource use. For the Latin American and Caribbean region, we should strive to create and implement during the first 36 months of the Decade's activities additional training to mid-level professionals from the various disciplines involved in project preparation and hazard assessment. A target goal for training and follow-up technical assistance should be set at 1,200 professionals, using existing institutional settings in each of the three sub-regions - - Central America, South America, and the Caribbean. We should also set as a goal to have at least one operational unit in each country's planning mechanism to provide hazard information for use in the documents and missions described earlier. We should continue to work through other initiatives, including those begun by the environmentalists, to include natural phenomena information in the data bases of natural resources and environmental management problem areas. And finally, we should use ongoing planning and development projects, beginning at the sub- 92 Satellite Remote Sensing Applications for Natural Hazard Preparedness and Emergency Response Planning Glenn Morgan Environmental Specialist Environment Department The World Bank Introduction ."Remote sensing technologies are of A growing area of concern in relevance to thedisaster fieldfor several natural hazard assessment and emergency response planning is improving the reasons. Most importantly the availability and use of information about technology holds the promise of rapid the nature and spatial extemu of disasters. low-cost reconnaissance over luge Ultimately, the effectiveness of any often remote areas. In many situations program addressing natural disaster remote sensing techniques may be the preparedness and emergency response will on viabl data coleton alernatve. depend on the timeliness and accuracy of o abe da ollon ae n scientific and social information gathered Satellite imagery of vaious types can from the field. Unfortunately, timely and be useful in three distinct ways: as a accurate data are not always available pre-disasterplanning too4- as a tracking from field stations, and other data sources and monitoring tool during disaster must be considered. This paper addresses events* and as a post-disaster the contribution of satellite remote sensing aesent tooL" technology as a complementary and supplemental tool for the collection and management of such information. the technologies as applied to various types The paper reviews the major of disasters and natural hazards, and operational satellite remote sensing summarizes the potential contribution of technologies currently available and future developments in the field. The evaluates their relevance to disaster report provides a representative sample of planning and emergency response recent remote sensing literature related to programs. It also describes some of the hazards assessment and management. operational experiences and constraints of Glenn Morgan is an Environmental Specialist with the World Bank's Environmental Operations and Strategy Division, where he provides technical assistance in the fields of remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) technologies as applied to land resource survey, and to inventory and assessments associated with rural development projects. Prior to joining the Bank in 1982, Mr. Morgan worked for the System Planning Division of the British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority, where he applied GIS and remote sensing for hydroelectric route selection studies. Mr. Morgan graduated in geography from Simon Fraser University, Canada. 93 Satellite Remote Sensing Systems with Agency's ERS-1 system. These are by no Operational RelevAnce to Disaster means the only remote sensing instruments Preamd.nMs available today. Several interesting developments have also taken place with Viewing the earth from space respect to aircraft mounted multispectral platforms is thought to open many new scanners, video imaging technologies, and perspectives for the analysis and of course, aerial photography. Airborne management of natural disasters. The technologies, however, will not be dealt variety of operational and planned earth- with in this paper. observation satellite systems offer unique capabilities to study the earth and its physical systems at various levels of "s one might expec4 each spectral resolution and at different time intervals. Hutchinson (1989) describes three types of unagng system has hfent stregths satellite-derived information that would be md weaknee, and the utii of any of use to disaster preparedness and one system will depend on the nature emergency relief efforts: baseline of the problem being studied Though information describing an area's many satellite remote sensing systems vulnerability to disaster; information work on the same principle of related to the monitoring of events meauring the enery reflected fm could precipitate a disaster; and lastly, mesrn h nm0yrfetdfo information on the extent, magnitude, and featureS on the earth's surface, they duration of a disaster event. The vary widely with respect to the area contribution of remote sensing data will that can be covere4 the regularity with vary according to the requirements for which imagery can be provide4 the these informational needs. resolution ofthe images, and ofcourse, During the last three decades, the ultimate cost of the information." numerous remote sensing sensors have been developed for a wide variety of applications. Presently, there are a As one might expect, each spectral multitude of sensors available which have imaging system has inherent strengths and operational relevance to hazard weaknesses, and the utility of any one preparedness and emergency response system will depend on the nature of the planning. In 1985, Slater described 56 problem being studied. Though many such satellite systems in operation at that satellite remote sensing systems work on time. These included the National Oceanic the same principle of measuring the energy and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) reflected from features on the earth's Advanced Very High Resolution surface, they vary widely with respect to the Radiometer (AVHRR), the Nimbus 7 area that can be covered, the regularity Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS), the with which imagery can be provided, the European SPOT system, the American resolution of the images, and of course, the LANDSAT system, the Indian Resources ultimate cost of the information. Satellite (IRS), and the Japanese Marine Observation Satellite (MOS), to name a LANDSAT Thematic Mapper few (see tables 1 and 2). In addition, there imagery, for example, has a ground are numerous systems which will soon resolution of 30 m but records information become operational, such as Canada's in seven spectral bands. SPOT, on the RADARSAT and the European Space other hand, has two sensors capable of 94 Table 1. Present and Future Earth Observation Capabilities from Space Type of Instrument/Channels/Spectral Range Horizontal Repetition Status Space Platform Resolution Rate of (kma) Observation Geosynchronous VISSR, MSR/2-3/0.5-1.1, (5-7), 10-12 microns 0.75-9 15-30 min operational Satellites (GOES, GMS, VAS/12/0.63, 3.9-14.7 microns 7-14 METEOSAT, INSAT) Next Generation more spectral channels, eventually 1-2 15-30 min fron mid 199(s microwave sensors and beyond NOAA Polar AVHRR/5/0.58-12.5 microns 1 12 hours operational Orbiters HIRS/20/mostly thermal IR 17.4 MSU/4/50.3-57.9 GHz 109 AMSU/20/10-90 (180) GHz 50 ACZCS/9/0.4-0.9, 10.5-12.5 microns 1 LANDSAT MSS/5/0.5-1.1 microns 0.08 16 days operational TM/7/0.45-12.5 microns 0.03/0.1 DMSP OLS/2/0.4-1.1, 10.4-12.4 microns 0.6 12 hours operational (Defence Meter. (Satellite Program) SPOT SPOT/4/0.5-0.9 microns 0.02/0.01 2.5 days operational MOS - 1 MESSR/4/0.51-1.1 microns 0.05 17 days operational (Japan) VTIR/4/0.5-125 microns 0.9-2.7 MSR/2/23.8, 31.4 GHz 32/23 IRS - 1 LISS-1/4/0.45 - 0.86 microns .036/.072 18 days operational (India) ERS - 1 AMI:SAR/1/53 GHz 0.03 undefined 1989 ASTR/3/3.7, 11, 12 microns 1 Polar Platforms MODIS/25/0.58-2.13 microns 0.5 2 days from late 1990s HIRIS/7/3.75-12.0 microns and beyond HMMR/27/1.4 - 183 GHz Possibly additional instruments Source Becker 1987, Table 2.1, p. 25. Table 2. Sample of Satellite-Borne Sensors of Relevance to Disaster Preparedness HRV: High Resolution Senser on the SPOT Satellite - This device images in two modes: multispectral and panchromatic. In the multispectral mode, it images with a ground resolution of 20 m in three spectral bands. In panchromatic mode, HRV acquires images with a ground resolution of 10 m in one spectral band. The SPOT HRV sensor orbits in a sun-synchronous course at an altitude of 822 km. Repetitive global coverage is provided every 28 days, but off-nadir imagery permits programming of the satellite in a manner permitting a revisit capability every three days. TM: Thematic Mapper (LANDSAT) - This sensor, mounted on the LANDSAT 4 and 5 satellite, has a ground resolution of 30 m for the six visible and infrared spectral bands and a 120 in resolution in the thermal band. The satellite has revisit capabilities of about 16 days. LISS: Linear Imaing SeIf-Scanning CaMeras- The LISS scanner is currently mounted on the Indian Resources Satellite IRS-IA. The scanner has a ground resolution of 36 in and 72 m with a ground swath of 148 km. Each camera operates in four spectral bands similar to the first four bands of LANDSAT TM. The satellite orbit permits revisit after 22 days. The imagery is currently only available over the Indian subcontinent; however, the Indian Remote Sensing Agency is currently negotiating for privileges at ground stations worldwide. MSS: Multisperal Scanner (LANDSAT) - MSS imagery has a ground resolution of 80 m and records information in four visible and near infrared spectral bands. MSS is carried on the LANDSAT 4 and 5 satellite and has a revisit capability of 16 days. AVHRR: Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer - This is a four or five band scanner with a ground resolution of 1 km. This device has produced significant information on atmospheric processes through its ability to map clouds, and is now being increasingly used for mapping regional vegetation and crop patterns. METEOSAT - This is a series of European-launched, geosynchronous, meteorological satellites designed to fulfill the need for meteorological data for short-term weather forecasting and atmospheric profiles of temperature and water vapor content. Meteosat's ground resolution is 2.5 km in the visible band and 5 km in the thermal-infrared and water vapor bands. Current products include cloud motion vectors, sea-surface temperatures, upper tropospheric humidity, precipitation index, cloud top height, and cloud analysis. CZCS:, Coastpl Zone Color Scanner - This multiband scanner flew on the NIMBUS-7 satellite primarily to quantify chlorophyll concentrations in near-coastal waters. There are five visible spectral bands and one thermal- infrared band. VISSR: Visible Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer - This scanning radiometer records radiation in two spectral bands with a ground resolution of .78 km in the visible band and 7 x 3 km in the thermal band. The whole earth disk is scanned and transmitted every 30 minutes. This device is mounted on the GOES satellite in a geosynchronous orbit. An improved version of the device is the visible infrared spin-scan radiometer atmospheric sounder (VAS). GMS: Geosynchronous Meteorologial Satellite - These are Japanese meteorological satellites in geosynchronous orbits which measure radiant energy in both the visible and thermal-infrared bands. Source: Duggin, MJ. (1987) In Vaughn (1987), pp. 56-63. 96 measuring 10 m and 20 m pixel resolution, disaster field for several reasons. Most respectively, but it only measures in three importantly, the technology holds the spectral bands. In addition, SPOT can promise of rapid, low-cost reconnaissance require as many as nine times the number over large often remote areas. In of images to cover an area equivalent to manysituations, remote sensing techniques one LANDSAT TM scene. Other sensors may be the only viable data collection like the NOAA/AVHRR can provide alternative. Satellite imagery of various imagery on a daily basis, though the pixel types can be useful in three distinct ways: resolution is relatively coarse (1 km pixel as a pre-disaster planning tool; as a size). The point is not to suggest that one tracking and monitoring tool during type of sensor is inherently better or worse. disaster events; and as a post-disaster Rather, that tradeoffs must be made when assessment tool. The technology can help selecting remote sensing imagery. These to establish baseline inventories against tradeoffs include spatial resolution, spectral which dynamic changes associated with resolution, revisit capability, area of hazards and disasters can be measured, and coverage, and last but not least, cost. it can provide sufficient economies of scale in studying large areas. "Operadonal experience has shown that But operational experience has the technolo's relevance will v shown that the technology's relevance will vary depending on the nature of the hazard depending on the nature of the hazard being studied as well as on the type of being studied as well as on the type of sensor being utilized. What is effective in sensor being utilized What is effective one setting may not be effective in another. in one setting may not be effective in The technology's contribution will vary another. Thetechnology'scontribution temporally -- often more useful long before wl vary temporally -- often zore or long after disasters strike rather than wielln ary teorlyg --aften rnoremduring the events themselves -- and will useful long beforeorlongafterdisasters vary depending on the specific application strike rather than duing the events (risk assessment, early warning system, themselves -- and will vary depending emergency response, or relief planning). on the specifi application (risk Easy generalizaticns regarding the value assessment, early warning systen, of such images are elusive. ernergeny rapons4 , orWpnning). Howarth (1983) points out that the Easy generaliadons regarding the value overall utility of different types of remote of such images are elusive" sensing data is determined by the following characteristics: (i) The size of the disaster-affected Operational Potential of Remote Sensing ata. Satellite imagery is generally more useful as the size of the study Since the earliest days of area increases. Hazards, such as meteorological and earth-observation fires and flooding, typically occur satellite programs, researchers have over large areas. The contribution attempted to utilize satellite-gathered of the imagery clearly increases in images as tools to study the nature and these cases. The extent of spatial extent of natural disasters. Remote sensing change associated with disasters is technologies are of relevance to the one of the most important 97 determining factors regarding the with surrounding ground features. contribution of various sensors. However, damage associated with Typically, positive identification of earthquakes, though devastating, is ground features in an image will typically localized in its impact and require clusters of image pixels results in very little spectral contrast (often ten or more pixels are with surrounding areas. required for a positive identification). Therefore, changes (iii) Time frame and temporal dynamics on the ground associated with a of the disaster, The temporal disaster must be over a rather large dynamics of a natural hazard will area to show up in an image. In the also determine the utility of case of SPOT multispectral imagery, different imaging technologies. For the disaster-affected area would example, while satellite imagery such need to be on the order of 200 m2 as LANDSAT can distinguish water before positive identification would quite readily, repeat coverage of a be possible (assuming ten pixels). flood area can only be achieved SPOT panchromatic imagery, on the every 16 days. A flood could easily other hand, would only require an occur and recede within that time affected area of 100 m2. (Likewise period. On the other hand, land- LANDSAT TM would require 300 use changes in coastal areas occur i2; LANDSAT MSS would require gradually over several years. 800 i, etc.) Imagery could be particularly effective in monitoring those Another constraint imposed changes Events which are seasonal, by the size of the disaster area predictable, or highly correlated with relates to the minimum unit which other events, such as flooding or can be physically shown on a map. wildfires, are more likely to benefit Assuming that an area no smaller from imagery than events which than 2 to 3 mm would be shown occur randomly or unpredictably, on a map, to be physically depicted, such as earthquakes or tsunamis. areas of change on the ground would need to be greater than 100 A review of the remote sensing m2 on maps at a scale of 1:50,000, literature reveals numerous attempts to or 200 n at a scale of 1:100,000. use remotely sensed imagery both for The implication is that imagery data operational and experimental applications. is better suited for disasters affecting The following sections describe some of large, contiguous areas. the operational possibilities for the application of satellite-based remote (ii) The degree of spectral change sensing technology. One must bear in associated with disasters, Most mind that the following descriptions are natural disasters involve spectral only meant to be indicative of the materials changes which, if significant enough, to be found in the research literature. can be detected with imaging systems. For example, forest fires and flooding lead to significant Earthquakes spectral changes which are easily detectable. Surface water is Direct operational experience with particularly easy to study because of the use of satellite remote sensing for its high degree of spectral contrast earthquake damage assessment has been 98 very limited. Sabins (1986) indicates that remote sensing has limited application for The value of satellite remote sensing the prediction of individual earthquakes. for geological applcations is its ability Nevertheless, geologic structural mapping has been a common application in geology to provide a synoptic view over Imge for some years (Siegal and Gillespie 1980). areas and its role in seisicrk The value of satellite remote sensing for ana(vsi. The major contribution for geological applications is its ability to seismic research has been in the provide a synoptic view over large areas inagery'sabilytoprovideinformation and its role in seismic risk analysis. The a ted major contribution for seismic research has a s etIUtad nacw been in the imagery's ability to provide such as active faults and fracture information about previously undetected systems, indicating subsurface lineaments, such as active faults and phenomenon of relevance to risk fracture systems, indicating subsurface analsis. phenomenon of relevance to risk analysis (Bagheri 1985). High-resolution imagery can be used effectively to identify many surface features commonly associated with Flood Prediction and Assessment active faults, such as linear valleys, offset drainage channels, and sag ponds (Sabins Satellite imagery of various types 1986). Identifying concentrations of have been used effectively in flood lineaments can indicate structural monitoring programs. Indeed, flood weaknesses and therefore help to pinpoint detection and mapping applications provide where seismic activity is more likely to some of the most striking examples of occur. The utility of the imagery derived operational remote sensing for disaster from space platforms will be most useful assessment. Wiesnet and Deutsch (1985) in identifying areas which are at relatively report, "flood mapping with satellite data high risk to earthquake damage. can be done much more rapidly, at less cost and with greater accuracy than ever LANDSAT imagery has been used before...satellite remote sensing can be to monitor tectonic activities in the used effectively for mapping floods in Jiangsu-Shandong-Anhui area of China progress, post-flood delineation of (Wang 1986) and in central Mexico inundated areas, identification of flood (Johnson 1987). Higher resolution prone areas, and prediction of flooding." imagery, like SPOT, could possibly be used The information derived from satellite to study damage to infrastructure (roads, imagery has been used effectively to railways, etc.), but the resolution is determine the baseline norms, such as probably still too coarse to be of value in maximum flooding levels, and assessment planning emergency response. For these of other periodic river and coastal types of studies, aerial photography is still fluctuations. In addition, many researchers the preferred remote sensing approach. have conducted studies determining river Another area where the imagery could be channel morphology and siltation problems, of value is in the study of the spatial extent both of which have direct impact on flood of landslides which may be associated with risk (Wiesnet and Deutsch 1986). earthquakes (see Landslides and Slope Failures). But the technology for flood mapping and forecasting is not without problems. Huthnance (1987) correctly 99 extensive cloud cover. This, in turn, nSatellite remote sensing for flood reduces the chances of acquiring good assessment has numerous positive and imagery over the area of interest. negative aspects. First; flood The use of imaging technologies for monitoring is likely to be more the assessment of tsunamis and associated operational than other natural disaster coastal damage has not been widely applications because floods usualy reported in the remote sensing literature. occur sasnaUy or on some predictable While satellite images may not be useful cycle. This is clearly an advantage for studying tsunamis themselves, they because the sateltes can then be could be used effectively to assess coastal tsunami risk, to develop -.oastal area programmed to acquire imagery over a management plans, and to monitor land- flood-prone area before the floods use change in coastal areas (see Howarth begin. Unfortunately flooding is 1983; and La Loggia et al. 1988) that are frequently associated with heavy prone to tidal waves or recurrent flooding. rainfal and henc4 extensive cloud Zhaumu and Xia (1986) describe the use of satellite imagery as a means of modeling cover. This, in turn, reduces the coastal dynamics, for mapping recent chancesofacquirnggoodimagery over changes in the course of a river, and for the area of interest correcting assumptions regarding tidal influences in the Huanghe river delta and coastal zones in order to support development of coastal zone management reports that the operational use of satellite plans. technology is limited by widely spaced orbits and by cloud cover problems. Geostationary satellites using AVHRR Landslides and Slope Failures technology, for example, while providing repeat coverage every few hours, have a Applications of remote sensing limited spatial resolution. Still, he :eports technology for assessing .landslides and successful applications with these lower slope failures after they have occurred are resolution systems for monitoring mean sea relatively commonplace. However, as level change and for providing overviews Sabins (1986) points out, individual of coastal development, sediment landslide events are difficult, if not movement, and wave behavior. impossible, to predict by remote sensing techniques. The imagery has been found Satellite remote sensing for flood to be quite useful for mapping regional assessment has numerous positive and occurrences of slide activity and has been negative aspects. First, flood monitoring utilized with considerable success to assess is likely to be more operational than other relationships between landslides and other natural disaster applications because floods types of hazards, such as violent storms, usually occur seasonally or on some earthquakes, and volcanic events. predictable cycle. This is clearly an Although it is difficult, if not impossible, advantage because the satellites can then to predict the occurrence of individual be programmed to acquire imagery over a landslides by satellite remote sensing flood-prone area before the floods begin. techniques, other types of remote sensing, Unfortunately, flooding is frequently such as stereoscopic air photographs, associated with heavy rainfall, and hence, airborne radar, and side-scanning sonar, 100 are useful tools for identifying actual (Colwel 1983). landslides and/or unstable areas (Sabins 1986). Ozaner's study (1986) reported the combined use of LANDSAT and air photos A promising area of research is the to study volcanic change in use of imagery for developing watershed Katakekaumeae, Turkey. The author management plans. Remote sensing data claimed that the use of remote sensing has been effectively utilized for technology contributed to the enhancement geomorphological mapping and assessment and correction of the ground survey. of watershed land-use conditions at scales Rothery et al. (1988) studied the eruption up to 1:50,000 and 1:25,000. Several of Lascar in Chile in September 1986 and studies have addressed the use of imagery found that a magmatic precursor registered for studying the mechanics of deposition on LANDSAT images from March and and siltation patterns associated with July 1985. The authors also found erosion and landslides (Rosenfeld 1985; unreported major changes in the and Gimbarzevsky 1983). But, as with dissemination of lava lakes on Erta'Ale, most remote sensing applications, the Ethiopia, and a minor eruption on Mount results have been mixed. Connors (1987) Erebes, Antarctica. analyzed SPOT data to derive landscape stability maps for semiarid areas based on geomorphic conditions readily apparent in "Many areas of known active vokano the higher resolution imagery, such as are densely setlle4 placing many eolian-mantled uplands, coppice dunes, and poorly vegetated silty and fine sandy areas. Used in these ways, imagery can flows, hot avalanches, mudflow, provide valuable pre-disaster information fjoods, and volcanic ash and gases. and can help to identify those areas which Satellite remote sensing technology is are at significant risk to slope failures and one of many data sources geologists erosion hazards. and volcanologists use to evaluate the Volcanic Eruption .wng signs of increased volcanic activity." Many areas of known active volcanos are densely settled, placing many thousands of individuals at risk to lava One of the most closely studied flows, hot avalanches, mudflows, floods, volcanic eruptions of all time was the 1980 and volcanic ash and gases (Sabins 1986). eruption of Mount St. Helens. Carson Satellite remote sensing technology is one (1983) utilized aerial photographs to study of many data sources geologists and the morphology and other volcanic volcanologists use to evaluate the warning phenomena of Mount St. Helens. He signs of increased volcanic activity. indicated that many of the structural Volcanic hazards, such as venting, tephra features of volcanos, such as eruption falls, and lava flows, can be directly clouds, steam blasts, fumarolic activity, monitored by satellites such as LANDSAT and dome growth, were clearly observable and SPOT. Records of LANDSAT images and measurable. Carson also reported on on volcanic activities include lava flows the use of thermal imagery on Mount from Mount Nyiragongo in Zaire, 1973, Rainier, Lassen Peak, and Mount St. and flows from Fernandia on the Helens which, though less common than Galapagos Islands of Ecuador, 1973 air photos, was found to be quite helpful. 101 Rosenfeld et al. (1985) reported across a region. Third, images are an excellent results from the use of airborne efficient way of assessing the total affected SLAR (Side Looking Airborne Radar) and area after the fire has been suppressed air photos for evaluating surface water and for monitoring ecological recovery detention, landslides, and mass wasting following the fire. associated with the Mount St. Helens eruption. The imagery data has correlated Miller et al. (1986) review the U.S. very well with sampling results of field Bureau of Land Management's (BLM) use sediment and provided significant insights of small-scale AVHRR data to derive into the processes which yielded enormous forest fuel maps for western United States. erosion rates in the region. The imagery They report that the imagery is particularly provided details of sediment sources, useful in three ways: as a means of potential sediment sinks, and temporary detecting, locating, and ranking areas storage areas such as fans, lakes, sand bars, according to their accumulation of green and stream bed channels. High-resolution biomass; as a way of estimating the satellite imagery, such as SPOT and senescence of herbaceous vegetation to LANDSAT, also provided meaningful indicate when fire problems will occur; information on the post-depositional and as a way to identify areas of wildfire landscape, though with less accuracy than risk in order to more effectively locate fire air photos. suppression and emergency response field teams. The utilization of such imagery Studying volcanic activity with has become an integral part of BLM's imagery is a sound approach to post- Wildfire Initial Attack Management System eruption evaluation of lava flows, (IAMS) and the National Fire Danger landslides, and mudflows. Thermal- Rating System (NFDRS). The AVHRR Infrared Scanner Data was also found to data is currently used to monitor and map be helpful in evaluating the revegetation fire fuel on all 180 million acres of land of denuded slopes following the Mount St. under the jurisdiction of the BLM. Helens eruption (Langran 1985), provided adequate terrain information was also Isaacson et al. (1982) report on the available. On a regional scale, satellite use of remote sensing (air photos and remote sensing would be very helpful for LANDSAT) for monitoring post-fire global mapping of active volcanoes, for erosion rates of burn areas associated with preliminary assessment of risk in active the 1978 Bridge Creek fire in Oregon's regions, and for determining the Deschute National Park. Satellite data environmental impacts of potential were utilized in a pre-fire analysis mode eruptions. to determine the extent of various land cover classes. Following the fire, imagery- Wild fires derived data was demonstrated to be useful for assisting in the design of programs The study of wildfires and burn which addressed watershed revegetation, areas is another application of remote construction of drainage control structures, sensing with significant potential, both and residue treatment programs. because of the large areal extent id spectral changes associated with fires. Satellite-derived data have also Several possible applications are apparent. been utilized in predictive modeling of fire First, imagery is useful as a pre-fire risk. Brass and Peterson (1983) planning and modeling tool. Second, it demonstrated how the analytical can be used to track fires as they spread capabilities of image data and geographic 102 information systems (GIS) could be used For fires covering very large regions, to evaluate fuel loads in fire-prone areas coarser resolution data has been utilized of California. Sader et al. (1983) also with some success. Langaas (1988) linked GIS capabilities with satellite image documents the use of AVHRR data to data to assist in the development of fire study bushfires in West Africa. While management planning operations. This somewhat useful for this application, included the planning of salvage Langaas concluded that even the six-hour operations, forest revegetation and grass time revisit capacity was inappropriate for seeding programs, and selective placement monitoring the highly transient bushfire of erosion control structures. Cosentino movement. Yet, in the Amazonian jungles and Estes (1981) used LANDSAT data as of Brazil, satellite imagery from LANDSAT an input to a fuels database utilized in the and AVHRR has been used to quantify the modeling of wildland fires in chaparral extent of forest burning. In 1982-83, areas of southern California, where drought and fire damaged an estimated 3.5 extremely explosive wildfire conditions million hectares in East Kalimantan, exist. The imagery was able to provide Indonesia. Those fires were caused useful information on the status of primarily by current agricultural practices vegetative cover in chaparral regions as which promote dry season burning for land well as other spatial information which clearing and by logging practices which contributed to fire behavior, such as the result in the accumulation of organic fuel spatial continuity of different land cover and debris. Malingreau (1985) effectively types, the branching habits, and the age utilized AVHRR imagery to study the characteristics of chaparral. Combined wildfires in Kalimantan and North Borneo with other data on the terrain, local (Indonesia) with considerable success. In climatic conditions (e.g., wind speed and fact, the monitoring of those fires has led humidity), and fire history, an effective to a reevaluation of the role of fire in the tool was developed to predict the spread fate of tropical forests. The European rate and intensity of possible fires in prone Space Agency (1988) also illustrated that areas. the thermal channel of AVHRR was sensitive enough to thermal contrasts to As with most applications of remote reveal the presence of large fires in Guinea sensing, the utility of the imagery will vary and Sierra Leone. depending on factors unique to the individual disaster. In fire applications, the Meteorology and Climatology utility of imagery data will vary with the severity of tree damage and the area of Satellite remote sensing techniques exposed soil. In most fire-affected areas, are becoming tools of growing importance there will be significant differences in meteorology as researchers begin to between the amount of damage visible in realize the complementarity of satellite any given area. LANDSAT TM images of data and ground survey data. The the August and September 1988 fires in provision of improved rainfall data is Yellowstone National Park clearly particularly important in the support of illustrated that not all of the area within hazard monitoring of flash floods and the fire perimeter had been destroyed. In drought as well as for water management, addition to pinpointing burned areas, the crop production, and food security imagery was very useful for identifying and assessments. K.A. Browning (1987) mapping "islands" of unaffected vegetation reminds us that local rainfall forecasts critical to the eventual rehabilitation of the have been enhanced by technical forest ecosystem. developments in three areas: improved 103 processing and transmission of data from ground radar; frequent cloud imagery from wSatellite remote sewing techniques geostationary satellites; and development are beoming tools of growing of interactive, computer-driven, graphic- iprac n mtoooy a display devices. Clearly, meteorological importance in meteorology as applications of remote sensing technology researchers begin to realize the have now become routine and are complementarity of satellite data and operational in many parts of the world. ground survey data. The provision of One of the most obvious applications of improved rainfall data is paticularly imagery is in the analysis of cloud iM in the srqport of hazard formations for short-term weather i orin th flo& oh prediction. One must bear in mind, monitoring offlash floods and drought however, that rainfall prediction from cloud as well as for water management, crop data is indirect, and predictive techniques production, and food security must be applied which correlate data from assessments." several sources. Dvorak (1975), for example, was among the first to develop widely used methodologies for analyzing and predicting tropical cyclones from much on tracking the storms themselves, satellite data. Since then, many techniques but instead, it has concentrated on have been developed for the analysis and measuring other hazards associated with interpretation of cloud and atmospheric the storms. For example, Wiesnet and data gathered from satellite sensors (Barret Deutsch (1987) describe the use of 1986). There can be little doubt that LANDSAT imagery to evaluate the tidal remote sensing technology has contributed surge phenomena associated with greatly to the understanding of atmospheric Hurricane Fifi (1974) in Honduras and processes and to the tracking of major the extensive flooding associated with storm events. Hurricane Juan (1985) in Louisiana. The Bangladesh remote sensing agency, The synoptic view of large areas SPARRSO, has utilized AVHRR imagery provided by meteorological satellites has in much the same way to evaluate regional been useful for other applications as well. flooding and tidal surges associated with Otterman and Shenk (1983) and Scorer tropical cyclones in the Ganges- (1986), for example, report that GOES Brahmaputra-Meghna delta. In 1988, and Nimbus satellites have shown that SPOT image data was used to evaluate the visible and infrared measurements from damage caused by the bola cyclone in the satellites can monitor the onset and East Cape region of northern New progress, as well as quantitatively assess Zealand. The imagery was successfully some of the physical properties (e.g., mass used as a tool to assist in the assessment loading), of dust storms. Still, they warn of the magnitude of soil erosion and that the low-resolution images are not deposition in order to indemnify land detailed enough to study the location of owners. The program reportedly reduced dust generations regions or to follow the overall costs by a factor of four and prcress of dust storms smaller than 20 completed a comprehensive damage km. assessment within 51 days of the disaster. The application of high-resolution Improved understanding of imaging systems, such as LANDSAT, for atmospheric processes driving global severe weather events has not focused so climate change will also be gained from 104 the current generation of geostationary various remote sensing approaches to satellites, such as the METEOSAT project. measuring land degradation, and he Numerous programs are now underway, evaluated the utility of remote sensing including the World Ocean Circulation technology for drought monitoring and Experiment, the Tropical Oceans Global other long-term problems in Africa. He Atmosphere Experiment, and International contended that satellite remote sensing, Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. The in particular, has rarely progressed beyond International Satellite Land Surface the experimental stage and is severely Climatology Project (ISLSCP) has been limited in its contribution to early warning established to describe the interrelations systems. On the other hand, it is in this between large-scale land surface properties field where a great deal of remote sensing and climate with the intention to provide research is being conducted and the insights into global climate patterns. By limitations of imagery data appear to be improving the information base on which more of a logistical nature than of an global climate models are predicated, inherent problem with the imagery itself. scientists hope to evaluate how temporal and spatial changes in the land cover alter Indeed, impressive progress has or accelerate climate change and to assess been made in the application of coarse- the implications of these changes on long- resolution, high-temporal frequency term drought or other climatic anomalies. satellite data from the NOAA/AVHRR system. Heilkema et al. (1986) outline With respect to future the ongoing cooperative efforts between developments, the ERS-1 satellite program FAO/NASA/NOAA and ESA to develop of the European Space Agency is designed a comprehensive remote sensing-based with specialized sensors for measuring system based on operational satellites using wind, wave, and surface temperatures for METEOSAT and AVHRR data for oceanographic remote sensing. ERS-1 is monitoring precipitation and vegetation expected to be operational by the early conditions on a continental scale (the so- 1990s and will be followed by second and called ARTEMIS system). The ARTEMIS third generation satellites shortly thereafter. program will generate a number of Data received from this satellite is standard user products, including rainfall expected to greatly contribute to the maps estimated every ten days and understanding of oceanographic parameters monthly, as well as rainfall anomaly maps and their influence on global processes. for the land area of Africa. Long-Term Disasters With respect to AVHRR data, CJ. Tucker (1985) also reports on the A more insidious family of natural successful application of this imagery, disasters are those which occur gradually originally designed for weather prediction over longer time frames. These long-term and climate analysis, to numerous disasters include drought, famine, problems, such as the monitoring of forest desertification, and land degradation due clearance in Brazil, the assessment of to deforestation and soil erosion. In productivity in African grasslands, and the Africa, for example, numerous early evaluation of Indian tropical forests. This warning programs are emerging which aim imagery has proven particularly useful for to provide valuable lead time to predict long-term analysis of seasonal variation of the onset of a climatological disaster. major vegetation formations. Recently, Stein Bie (1989) summarized the NOAA/AVHRR data has been used to operational potential and limitations of provide vegetation index maps on a 105 provide vegetation index maps on a which limit the overall effectiveness of this regional basis, and high-resolution imagery technology. has been used to monitor crop areas. CJ. Tucker (1985) at the Goddard Space Flight Center has pioneered the use of vegetation "The role of remote sensing is peaps index maps for providing early warning clearest when utilized as part of data on the likely spread of desert locusts throughout the Sahel. The imagery has programs aimed at eme c proven effective in providing near real- p The imagety's ability to time information on the environmental identify areas prone to haards, areas conditions favorable to grasshoppers and ofalternatedevelopmentpotentI4 and locusts. Tappan et al. (1988) maintain that kand-use change and its intensity and the use of satellite data for monitoring tempml dynamics are especially seasonal vegetation patterns has added a now dimension to locust survey and control. usW in th regw As part of an In a review of early warning systems in early warning or hazwd assessment Africa, the OECD/Club de Sahel was program, imge data would be favorably impressed by the contributions paricLdary effective in public education of such satellite data collection systems, and awareness campaigns, in although they recommended that more pubiciing evacuation phkm and in capabilities be developed at the national g level. the development of long-rang4 land- use management plans." Though the use of satellite image data as a resource management tool is relatively scarce in Africa, several near- One constant problem is that the operational applications have been tested. technology is still constrained by its Hutchinson (1987) reviews programs for inability to provide timely information. drought and famine early warning systems LANDSAT, for example, can only provide in Africa and points out the use of remote imagery on a 16- to 18-day turnaround sensing data for these purposes. In time and has problems with providing particular, he describes FAO's Africa Real immediate, next-day coverage of Time Environmental Monitoring using the consecutive paths. (The skip orbit of Imaging Satellite (ARTEMIS), NASA's IANDSAT 4 and 5 precludes monitoring GIMMS, and the USGS EROS data center of regional flooding that extends to programs as initiatives with great promise adjacent swaths of the satellite.) This is a for the near future. very serious limitation when one attempts to use high-resolution imagery to address Operational Limitations of Remote Sensing recurrent flood problems, for example. For applications requiring an unobstructed Clearly, remote sensing has view of the earth's surface, cloud cover tremendous potential with respect to will remain perhaps the most serious hazard preparedness and emergency obstacle to the operational use of spectral response planning. Yet in practice, the imaging systems such as LANDSAT and technology has seen little operational use SPOT. Satellite RADAR systems are for these purposes. In spite of impressive being developed which should overcome advances in the state-of-the-art, users of this particular problem, but they are still satellite imaging systems are faced with several years away from being fully numerous important operational constraints operational. 106 The use of imagery is also features are altered as a result of a constrained by the unavoidable disaster. In spite of many advancements requirement fDr omplementary ground in the last ten years, much work needs to verification procedures to support remote be done before satellite systems can be sensing surveys. It is a truism of remote used routinely in disaster response sensing technology that provisions for applications. Based on a review of adequate ground verification must always published literature, the operational be made. These "ground-truthing" surveys experience with remote sensing technology can be time-consuming and costly. It is suggests that it is most appropriate as a advisable that all remote sensing surveys tool for pre-disaster planning and for post- be designed in a way which is disaster monitoring and assessment. complementary and supplemental to Because of operational constraints, ground measurement networks. This is particularly in the short term, the particularly true in flood preparedness technology is less operationally useful programs, though the same could be said during the disaster itself. of wildfires and other disasters. In the final analysis, remote sensing technology The role of remote sensing is must be seen as a complementary tool to perhaps clearest when utilized as part of ground survey networks. programs aimed at emergency preparedness. The imagery's ability to Summary of Operational Capabilities identify areas prone to hazards, areas of alternate development potential, and land- This paper has briefly considered use change and its intensity and temporal the major operational potentials and dynamics, are especially useful in this limitations of satellite remote sensing regard. As part of an early warning or technology as applied to disaster hazard assessment program, image data preparedness and response programs. would be particularly effective in public Clearly, the operational satellites available education and awareness campaigns, in today provide a range of capabilities for publicizing evacuation plans, and in the monitoring the earth's surface and development of long-range, land-use atmosphere on a repetitive basis. Remote management plans. The current remote sensing data which is relevant to disaster sensing literature clearly reflects an preparedness and emergency response emphasis on programs aiming at risk planning are currently produced by a mix assessment, early warning systems, and of operational meteorological satellites; disaster preparation. To be fully effective semi-operational, land-observation as a planning, monitoring, and assessment satellites; and experimental systems. The tool, the acquisition of imagery must be acquisition, interpretation, and evaluation carefully designed in advance, of these data are rarely a straightforward corresponding to periods when hazards matter, and many different approaches are more likely to occur. In addition, may be followed to achieve the desired imagery must be utilized in conjunction results. with other ancillary, supporting information. Planned carefully and with The operational relevance of the rapid advances apparent in this field, satellite-based data acquisition systems, we may anticipate substantial unfortunately, has been shown to vary with improvements in the long-term operational respect to the size of the affected area, the utility of remote sensing for hazard time frame and temporal dynamics of the assessment and emergency preparedness. disaster, and the degree to which surface 107 Bibliogmhy General Colwel, Robert N. (ed.), (1983) "Manual of Remote Sensing (Second Edition) Vol.1 and Vol.2" Falls Church: American Society of Photogrammetry. Sabins, Floyd F. Jr.,(1986) "Remote Sensing: Principles and Interpretation (Second Edition) New York: W.H. Freeman and Company. Slater, Philip N. (1985) "Survey of Multi-Spectral Imaging System for Earth Observations" Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 17, pp. 85-102. Drouht and Famine Early Waraing Sstems Barret, E.C. and D.W. 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St. Helens: The First 100 Days" United States Geological Survey Professional Papers 1249. Gimbarzevsky, Philip (1983) "Remote Sensing of Slope Failures on the Queen Charlotte Islands" in "Renewable Resource Manaement: Applications of Remote Sensing" American Society of Photogrammetry, Falls Church, Virginia. Johnson, Christopher A. "A Study of Neotectonics in Central Mexico from Landsat Thematic Mapper Imagery" Coral Gables: University of Miami. Langren, Kenneth J. (1985) "Monitoring Vegetation Recovery Patterns on Mount St. Helens using Thermal Infrared Multi-Spectral Data" in Technical Papers of the 51st Annual meeting of the American Society of Photogrammetry, Washington D.C., March 1985. Lindley, David and David Swinbanks (1987) "Satellite-Linked Tsunami Warning to Avoid Pacific Disasters" London: Nature. Ozaner, F. 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ESA, in Proceedings of the 1988 International Geo-science and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARRS 1988) on Remote Sensing* Moving Towards the 21st Century Vol. 1, pp.369-372. 110 Wang, Ruobai (1986) *Analysis of the recent tectonic activity in Jiangsu-Shandong-Anhui area, China in Proceedings from the Second International Seminar on Earthquake PrognnMtics Berlin, West Germany, June 24-27, 1986. Wildfres Brass, James A. and David L Peterson (1983) 'Reforestation and Fire Hazard Mapping in Santa Cruz County, California* in "Renewable Resource Management: Applications of Remote Sensing' American Society of Photogrammetry, Falls Church, Virginia. Cosentino, Michael J. and John Estes (1981) "Use of LANDSAT Data to Develop a Fuels Database for a Wild- land Fire Simulation Model" in Proceedings of the PECORA VII Symposium. Sioux Falls, South Dakota. European Space Agency (1988) 'Earth Observation Quarterlv" December 24, 1988. Isaacson, D.L, H.G. Smith and CJ. Alexander (1982) "Erosion Hazard Reduction in a Wildfire Damaged Area' in Chris Johansen and James Sanders "Remote Sensing for Resource Management' Soil Conservation Society of Americ%, Ankeny, Iowa. Langaas, Sindre and Keith Muirhead (1988) 'Monitoring Bushfires in West Africa by Weather Satellites" in 'Proceedings of the 22nd International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment', October 20-26, 1986, Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire, ERIM. Malingreau, J.P., G. Stephens, and L. Fellows (1985) "Remote Sensing of Forest Fires: Kalimantan and North Borneo in 1982-83' Ambio. Miller, W.A., S.M. Howard, D.G. Moore (1986) "Use of AVHRR Data in an Information System for Fire Management in the Western United States' in the Eroeina of the 20th International f M on Remote Sensing of the Environment. Nairobi, Kenya 1986, pp. 67-80. Sader, Steven A., Sarah Wynn, William J. Bonner Jr., and Dale L. Vance (1983) "Integrating Wildland Fuels and Digital Terrain Data into the BLM's Initial Attack Management System" in "Renewable Resource ManWgement: AMlications of Remote Sensing' American Society of Photogrammetry, Falls Church, Virginia. 111 Comments by the Panel Moderator Stephen F. Lintner Senior Environmental Specialist Europe, Middle East, and North Africa Technical Department The World Bank The three presentations we have just heard provide examples of what can "We need to cad the range of be done to go beyond the traditional tools which are used to evalut emergency response approach to natural ts which a use toaute disasters. Steps are increasingly being isk, adopt a more proactive taken to integrate health and planning approach focussed on natwul issues into disaster prevention and disaster prevention and management. While new tools such as prepwadnes and eq d de rmage remote sensing are being used to reduce ofprofessions concerned with this the risk of disaster and monitor them when ise . . . Increased outach they occur. These actions rest on the experience shared by many in the audience activitter are needed to improve the that loss of lives, physical damage, and natural disaster prevention and economic disruption could have been management concerns into the significantly reduced had more long-term physical planning process and to planning been done and institutions better sesidze decision makers of the prepared. potential consequences of ignorng Latin America and the Caribbean thes concerns in land use region, due to the excellence work of decisions." PAHO and the OAS, is far ahead of many other areas in adopting an integrated approach to disaster prevention and management. Within the region, countries have been particularly successful in Stephen F. Lintner is a Senior Environmental Specialist, Environment Division for the Europe, Middle East, North Africa Region of the World Bank. Prior to joining the Bank, Mr. Lintner served as Environmental Coordinator for the Bureau for Asia and Near East of the U.S. Agency for International Development, and as an Environmental Scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey. Mr. Lintner has participated in programs concerning natural and man-induced flooding in the United States and the Middle East, drought in North Africa and Southeast Asia, locusts in Africa and the Middle East, and earthquakes in Europe and the Middle East He also has designed programs for industrial emergency prevention, planning, and management in the Middle East and India. He is a member of the Bank's Task Force on Natural Disaster Reduction and he holds a doctorate in physical geography and environmental engineering from The Johns Hopkins University. 112 cooperatively examining risks and adopting preventative measures. This success only serves to highlight the concern to integrate risk assessment and hazard reduction into development planning. The assessment of health risk and measures for its management, particularly provisions of emergency drinking water supply, also requires greater attention. In summary, we need to expand the range of tools which are used to evaluate risk, adopt a more proactive approach focussed on natural disaster prevention and preparedness, and expand the range of professions concerned with this issue. Significant actions need to be taken to link knowledge of risks, especially floods, earthquakes, and landslides, into the planning process. Increased outreach activities are needed to improve the natural disaster prevention and management concerns into the physical planning process and to sensitize decision makers of the potential consequences of ignoring these concerns in land use decisions. Health specialists and engineers need to more carefully review the role of their professions in this area, significant opportunities exist for their active participation in the analysis of risk and identification of new ways to reduce hazards. 113 Panel 4. Country Efforts to Prevent and Mitigate Natural Disasters Patrick E. McCarthy, The World Bank Felix A. Jakob, The World Bank Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard, The World Bank Thakoor Persaud, moderator, The World Bank .... - -- ý4, 4 Summary of Panel Proceedings Fulfilling the goals set by the have caused hundreds of thousands of International Decade for Natural Disaster deaths and contributed significantly to the Reduction rests to a large extent upon the country's underdevelopment. Despite the initiative of individual governments and fact that the highly publicized 1988 flood their citizenry to actively embrace and was no more intensive in terms of physical effectively manage their disaster reduction magnitude than previous floods, it caused programs. In this regard, the lessons significantly more damage. Mr. McCarthy learned from individual projects and hypothesized that development in country-specific, disaster reduction vulnerable areas had heightened the programs can be applied to the benefit of devastation. Enhanced broadcasting other development projects and country capabilities increased global awareness of programs. the disaster. The last panel explored several To reduce flood damage in the disaster reduction strategies and projects future, the Bangladesh government recently being pursued by individual countries with called for a substantial, multipronged the assistance of the donor community. disaster reduction strategy. The Discussion focussed on four nations, government and international donor diverse in may ways, that share the need community, under the coordination of the to live with the ever-present threat if World Bark, investigated disaster reduction natural hazards. In Bangladesh, the options and decided to embark on a five- magnitude and pervasiveness of devastating year action plan to begin strengthening the floods is the impetus for an appropriate embankments along major flood-prone solution. In Nepal and Mexico, recent rivers, improve flood control and World Bank-financed reconstruction preparedness, and fortify coastal defenses projects are infusing resources into disaster against cyclones. mitigation. Disaster reduction activities are also being supported through innovative Although Nepal experiences non-emergency loans, including a disasters from earthquakes and floods on freestanding disaster mitigation project a less predictable and less catastrophic proposal in Mexico and a municipal scale than Bangladesh, disaster reduction development program in Bolivia. is still essential. Mr. McCarthy pointed to three Bank-financed projects to illustrate Patrick McCarthy of the World measures being pursued to lower Bank opened the session by recounting vulnerability in Nepal. recovery efforts undertaken in Bangladesh following the 1988 floods and in Nepal The 1988 earthquake created a after a series of floods and the 1988 disaster, killing 721 people, leaving almost earthquakes. He also reviewed strategies a half a million people affected, and these nations are following to lower their damaging 65,000 homes. With UNDP and vulnerability. World Bank assistance, the government of Nepal supplemented a traditional Mr. McCarthy said that although reconstruction program with innovative floods are a frequent and necessary techniques to reduce vulnerability. Nepal element of the Bangladesh ecosystem, they developed seismic-resistent construction 116 standards and building codes, provided directorate's mandate calls for coordinating households with technical assistance on public sector activities related to mitigation resilient construction techniques, and and eiergency assistance, monitoring and introduced measures to conserve the use assisting new public and private enterprises of timber in the reconstruction program. in adhering to civil defense requirements, Soon after the World Bank began and drafting contingency plans for disbursements on the first reconstruction hazardous industrial plants. loan, the Bank approved an emergency loan designed to rehabilitate and reinforce The World Bank was an active over 2,000 damaged schools. partner in the reconstruction of Mexico after the 1985 quake and in the Mr. McCarthy also described formulation and implementation of the another World Bank project that helped country's disaster reduction strategy. The Nepal recover from a 1987 flood, which Bank has helped to finance a project to caused extensive landslides, failures in the conduct extensive research on seismology flood protection infrastructure, and and seismic engineering, the development washouts on major roads. In addition to of seismic-resistent building codes, and a assisting with road and bridge repairs, a program to szructurally reinforce schools World Bank loan supported disaster and health care facilities. As a follow up reduction works, including a post-monsoon to this widely hailed reconstruction project, damage monitoring system. Mr. Jakob reported that the Bank is preparing its first freestanding disaster Felix Jakob from the Infrastructure reduction project, the Mexico Natural Division in the Mexico and Central Hazard Mitigation Project. The project America Department of the World Bank thus far calls for geographically extending examined Mexico's evolving policy toward the original program to structurally its numerous natural hazards, which include reinforce schools an.; health care facilities, earthquakes, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions, and for providing institutional and material forest fires, and droughts. support to the country's' civil defense system. Mr. Jakob said that Mexico, like other disaster-prone countries, traditionally Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard of the regarded calamities fatalistically, as World Bank, made the final presentation uncontrollable acts of nature that could which focussed on a locally-initiated neither be prevented nor mitigated. development project which may be a Pivotal in triggering a transformation of forerunner of future development schemes. this attitude were the 1985 Mexico City The Bank-sponsored, La Paz Development earthquake, in which approximately 8,000 Project successfully integrated disaster people lost their lives, and Hurricane mitigation as a principal component of a Gilbert in 1988, one of the strongest larger municipal development program, and atmospheric disturbances ever recorded in earmarked one-third of its funds to control the Western Hemisphere. Since 1985, natural h-Azards. Mexico has initiated countrywide reforms to promote vulnerability reduction, Ms. Plessis-Fraissard said that including building codes which incorporate natural hazards are so common in the city stricter standards for seismic and of La Paz that after ten years of floods, atmospheric disturbances and the landslides, and mudslides, an equal amount establishment a civil defense directorate of destruction results as from a large-scale within the Department of the Interior. The earthquake. Although an immediate 117 concern, disaster mitigation is seriously Ms. Plessis-Fraissard ended her constrained by the city's underdevelopment: presentation by noting that although the La Paz lacks basic infrastructure for a large La Paz project would not meet Californian proportion of its population; the local risk reduction standards, the disaster administration and institutions are unable reduction component would significantly to design or enforce land-use plans; and reduce the number of lives lost and the the general public is largely unaware of amount of property damaged. disaster prevention techniques. Given these seemingly intractable problems, Ms. Thakoor Persaud of the World Plessis-Fraissard said that when the project Bank, the panel's moderator, concluded team began to work on the loan, containing the session by highlighting the financial La Paz's natural hazards appeared and political difficulties that developing insurmountable. As the project evolved, countries encounter when attempting to however, important lessons were uncovered institute disaster reduction programs. and controlling risk seemed more feasible. The project team developed innovative Mr. Persaud said that to formulate techniques for identifying hazards and effective disaster reduction programs, assessing their potential severity and development planners must be aware of imminence. Once the hazards were the potential complications they might identified, mapped, and prioritized encounter. For example, politicians may according to their gravity, risk reduction have a shorter-term perspective on issues measures could then be systematically affecting a disaster-prone area than a targeted for the most serious hazards. development planner, and they may need to contend with priorities of greater Perhaps most important, Ms. Plessis- immediacy than disaster reduction. Or, Fraissard said, disaster reduction was cost developing countries may be reluctant to effective and affordable to the city. In embark upon a disaster reduction program contrast to the annual loss the city incurred requiring capital investments when they from hazards, amounting to $8.00 per know that external assistance would be capita, the cost to contain the risk totalled available in the event of a disaster. Mr. about $2.50 per capita. With these Persaud said that when conventional auspicious figures, the project's disaster avenues of development are pursued for reduction component was designed to disaster reconstruction or reduction include flood, landslide, and erosion projects, the informal sector may often be control works, and systems for solid waste excluded. collection and equipment maintenance. Loan conditionality for municipal and In addition, Mr. Persaud argued financial management was set and included that within the cycle of a catastrophe, the mechanisms for collecting taxes and window of opportunity for disaster investing in municipal development. reduction is short. In the immediate Agencies responsible for different aspects aftermath of a calamity, when a country of disaster management and emergency and its population may be very receptive readiness were organized into a coherent to lowering vulnerability, all available framework within the municipal resources must be diverted to relief. As government, and an early warning system the disaster fades with time, competing was formulated. Finally, a pilot program demands regain their urgency. to educate and involve the citizenry of the city in disaster reduction efforts was To design successful disaster established. reduction programs, projects must operate 118 within the bounds of these limitations. Project goals should be divided into discrete, short-term steps in accordance with the government's time horizon. Hiring staff with hands-on experience in the disaster-prone country could help to overcome bureaucratic hurdles, and enlisting locally-based institutions that have the confidence of the people, such as NGOs or the church, could provide access to the informal sector. Mr. Persaud also said that the great strides in the areas of construction technology and early warning systems are encouraging. He urged that as technology continues to advance, it must also be appropriate, accessible, and cost- effective. And finally, he advised that for disaster reduction programs to be effective, they must be built upon the mutual interest of all entities involved in hazard reduction. 119 Recovery and Mitigation Efforts In Bangladesh and Nepal Patrick E. McCarthy Senior Financial Analyst Asia Country Department The World Bank Bangladesh Bangladesh is prone to natural co to all available evidence disasters: floods, cyclones, and droughts. gathered over the last 100 yea, Of the three types of disasters, the first since records have been kept the (floods) has perhaps captured the most severity and extent of flooding in attention. Following the floods of 1987 Bangladeh has not increased and 1988, the international donor International awarenes of recent community, at the request of and with the o has in alprobabiity grown cooperation from the government of b of enhanced cali to Bangladesh, has carried out some intensive studies toward developing policies and communicate such disastem to the strategies for managing the floods. worl4 and because increased development activity in areas at Three of the great rivers of South risk has caused economic lossa to Asia, the Brahmaputra, the Ganges, and r 1 the Meghna, which are also amongst the largest rivers of the world, have their confluence in Bangladesh before flowing into the Bay of Bengal. Only 8% of the classified as below the poverty line. The watershed of these rivers lies in Bangladesh area's population is growing at about 2.2% while 62% of the watershed lies in India. per annum. The rest is distributed among Nepal, Bhutan, and China (Tibet). The watershed Within Bangladesh, 11.6 people is home to half a billion people, of which inhabit 1 hectare of arable land, compared 350 million are from to 13 people in the United States. This India and 110 million from Bangladesh. ratio for Bangladesh is projected to rise to About 250 million of these people are 38.5 people per hectare of arable land in Patrick E. McCarthy is a Senior Financial Analyst at the Infrastructure Division within the Asia Country Department at the World Bank. He has worked in the Disbursements Division, Controller's Department (1971-76); the Resident Mission, Nairobi (1976-79); on urban development and water supply projects in South Asia (1979-87); and in his present post since 1987. His work experience prior to the Bank included 12 years in international commercial banking, with service in the U.K, the Bahamas, South America, and Canada. Mr. McCarthy graduated from the City of London College. 120 about 100 years before stabilizing. The is also upstream of India, but it has little comparable ratio for the U.S. would be chance of diverting water from the 1.5. Recent studies have, therefore, not Brahmaputra before it enters India because only focussed on the physical management of the mountainous nature of its terrain of flood prevention, but on the human and and the low population densities in the social dimensions as well. area. Flooding of these rivers is an annual event to a greater or lesser degree. It is "AHoftheBank'spreviousprojects a necessary part of the ecosystem, in Bangladsh havefocusd on the providing fertility for the soil, water for a8&ulure/ bfigatn sector. monsoon crops, groundwater recharge, and fish production. According to all available Dw including the World Ban evidence gathered over the last 100 years, are now taking a broader approach since records have been kept, the severity to flood rehabilation, to include and extent of flooding in Bangladesh has the human and social dimensions not increased. Inter-national awareness of as wel as the protection of urban recent floods has in all probability grown because of enhanced capabilities to infrastructure and other property communicate such disasters to the world, and fife " and because increased development activity in areas at risk has caused economic losses to rise. India is upstream of all major rivers that flow into Bangladesh; however, it has While much could be done to a major problem in transferring the waters prepare for and mitigate the effects of of the Brahmaputra in the northeastern flooding within Bangladesh, long-term state of Assam to the central part of India. solutions for water management in the In the low flows season, India diverts large Brahmaputra and Ganges basins would quantities of water from the Ganges. But require an integrated regional approach in the flood season, India appears to have which would have to demonstrate benefits no choice but to open all gates, thus to all affected countries. exacerbating the problem in Bangladesh. The diversion of large amounts of water by Snowmelt starts in the Himalayas. India in the dry season causes shortages in Nepal, however, can only divert and use a Bangladesh. little of such waters; the rest flows into India. The construction of dams in the Mitigation of flooding by Himalayas would be subject to breaking embankments on both sides of the main by earthquakes and contribute to seismic rivers likewise involves tradeoffs between destabilization. Estimates of the amount the benefits and negative consequences, of funds and time required to construct which often are difficult to predict. dams which would make an impact on Embankments could deny many of the flood control are prohibitive: $60 billion benefits noted earlier and they cost billions and 60 years. At the end of that time, the of dollars to construct and millions a year dams would be silted, requiring the to maintain. construction of new dams. Deforestation in Nepal, whilst a problem, does not What, then, are the solutions, if appear to be a significant factor in the any? incidence of flooding in Bangladesh. China 121 A number of international and of tubewells during the eight months Bangladesh studies have been undertaken of the dry season. This would have since the 1988 flood. Their findings are to include the development of the currently being assessed. However, it hydroelectric potential of the region seems that a multipronged approach will and gas-powered electricity be required through implementation of generation as viable power sources Bangladesh's National Data Plan and a to drive the tubewells. permanent institutional focus on emergency preparedness activities. The former will (v) Strengthen development, in the long enable Bangladesh to prioritize flood term, of a water development control, drainage, and irrigation projects, program based on a broad and and the latter will assist the people of integrated approach, recognizing Bangladesh to better cope with future that the most important immediate floods. Here are a few of the measures to be taken are in-country. recommendations that have come out of the recent studies. (vi) Obtain endorsement by the international donor community of (i) Implement a phased and Bangladesh's National Water Plan, comprehensive flood plan developed as a way of dealing with incorporating the protection of floods within an overall water public utility centers, communication development strategy. The plan networks, and urban, rural, proposes an investment of $6 billion commercial, and industrial over 20 years on flood control, infrastructure; and control flooding drainage, and tubewell irrigation wherever possible and appropriate projects, prioritized to meet food to meet intersectoral needs (e.g., production needs until 2005. agriculture, fisheries, water supply, and transport). The World Bank has been associated with disaster recovery projects (ii) Support actions through a central in Bangladesh since 1970, when a cyclone office of emergency preparedness struck coastal districts killing as many as that will help people live with the 500,000 people and causing enormous floods. These actions could include damage. Due to the war of liberation, the establishing and improving refuge reconstruction program made little areas, providing better emergency progress, but after independence, the Bank food and medical services, increasing reappraised and relaunched the project as and improving surface drainage, and the Coastal Areas Rehabilitation and providing livestock protection. Cyclone Protection Project in October 1982. Further Bank-financed disaster flood (iii) Promote better disaster preparation, rehabilitation projects were approved in including international cooperation 1985 and 1988 in response to severe for flood forecasting, warning, and flooding during the 1984 and 1987 analysis. Many of the preparations monsoons, respectively. All of the Bank's for flood disasters lend themselves previous projects in Bangladesh have to cyclone and drought disasters as focussed on the agriculture/irrigation well. sector. Donors, including the World Bank, are now taking a broader approach to (iv) Encourage programs for the flood rehabilitation, to include the human development and more efficient use and social dimensions as well as the 122 protection of urban infrastructure and damaged. By far the greatest damage in other property and life. These lessons have dollar value was to housing ($78.5 million), been incorporated into the Bank's most followed by roads and bridges ($62.4 recent credit, the 1989 Third Flood million) and schools ($32 million). The Rehabilitation (Emergency) Project, which total direct estimate of damage was $172 is designed to assist in reconstruction million. following the devastation of the 1988 floods and to prevent and mitigate future floods. "Collaps occurred mainly in the mud-brick houses and in those with no framing. Damage resulted Nepal, with its great Himalayan ma*lyfromfailure to bond corner mountain range, is seismically active. Its walls, secure gable wall provide excessive runoff from snowmelt combined lintels over openings, and secure with the monsoon rains, which are not wof structures. Houses offramed necessarily an annual occurrence, can cause construction orreinforced concrete flooding. sufered no damage at all" In this century, Nepal has suffered three earthquakes. The first one, and the worst recorded to date, occurred in January The government quickly mounted 1934 and registered 8.2 on the Richter a relief effort which it originally anticipated Scale. The second quake occurred in July completing within a month of the disaster, 1980 with an intensity of 6.5, and the latest but which ultimately extended up to one struck in the early hours of August 21, October 1, 1988. This relief included 2,000 1988 with an intensity of 6.7. In July and Nepalese rupees (NRs) to the families of August 1987, exceptionally heavy rains the dead, NRs 1,000 to those whose houses combined with snowmelt to cause the worst had collapsed or were rendered unfit for flooding in twenty years. habitation, 40 kg of rice per affected family, and provision of plastic sheets for Let us concentrate on the two most shelter. While this relief was underway, recent events. The August 1988 the government turned its attention to earthquake rocked the entire Eastern and implementing a reconstruction program, part of the Central Development Regions. making a number of key decisions: Its epicenter was at Udaypur, about 160 km southeast of Kathmandu. The quake (i) a Central Coordinating Committee, was felt in the Kathmandu Valley where under the chairmanship of the some damage occurred in Bhaktapur. It Minister of Housing and Physical lasted about 40 seconds, leaving 721 people Planning, and a special dead, over 6,000 injured, and much implementation unit to coordinate infrastructure damaged beyond habitation the program was constituted; or use in 28 districts. Specifically, 65,453 homes affecting about 460,000 persons, (ii) three percent (about $14 million) 2,351 education buildings, 83 health of the 1989 fiscal year's development posts/hospitals, and 1,159 public buildings budget was allocated for were destroyed or damaged. Additionally, reconstruction and rehabilitation; roads, bridges, power infrastructure, irrigation, and water supply were also (iii) 28 engineers and 272 overseers 123 would be recruited to work on the Dhankuta (population 8,000) and Ilam housing reconstruction program; (population 4,000). (iv) 1,200 rural workers would be trained Generally, houses in Nepal are of to introduce an added benefit of two to three stories, built with stone, brick promoting the use of low-cost toilets with cement mortar, and brick-mud mortar and smokeless stoves. A grant of (commonly called mud-brick). Collapses NRs 600 would be paid to occurred mainly in the mud-brick houses households that incorporated such and in those with no framing. Damage improvement when reconstructing resulted mainly from failure to bond corner their homes; walls, secure gable walls, provide lintels over openings, and secure roof structures. (v) minimum earthquake-resistant Houses of framed construction or requirements in reconstructed reinforced concrete suffered no damage at buildings would be developed (their all. incorporation into district headquarters and urban areas would The main objectives of the World be mandatory); Bank-financed emergency housing reconstruction project, which was approved (vi) demonstration houses would be in March and signed in April 1989, were constructed to show sound building the following: techniques and simple low-cost earthquake-resistant features; and (i) assist the government in implementing its loan program to (vii) a housing reconstruction loan reconstruct houses damaged in the program would be initiated through earthquake; banks which had branches in the affected areas. (ii) improve construction standards and develop a national building code, On September 9, 1988, the World including the incorporation of Bank received a request from the earthquake-resistant features into government for emergency assistance in buildings through planning and reconstructing housing. Within a couple development control regulations; of weeks a mission from the World Bank went to Nepal to identify and appraise, if (iii) provide technical assistance and possible, an earthquake emergency housing training for the housing sector to reconstruction project. This was address long-term needs; and accomplished. The mission travelled to the affected areas and saw the extensive (iv) address the environmental impact damage done by the earthquake. Although relating to the excessive use of the quake was considered relatively mild, timber in buildings and building approximately 65,500 houses were products manufacture. destroyed (primarily due to weak construction techniques): 63,000 were The governments program, of which classified as rural, 2,340 were classified as the World Bank-financed project is a part, urban, and 410 were located in the district together with technical assistance and headquarters areas. Damage was most training funded by UNDP, addresses visible in the urban areas, particularly in recovery and mitigation in a real way. In the towns of Dharan (population 65,000), the recovery process, the government 124 quickly recruited and trained 300 engineers (ii) preparation of a national building and overseers. In this effort, the Swiss code incorporating earthquake- Disaster Relief Organization assisted in resistant features; providing logistical support in the field operations. The functions of the engineers (iii) epicentral and seismic mapping; and overseers are to (iv) development of a housing strategy (i) bring affected households and the and related studies; banks together for the purposes of administering the loan program. (v) new building products development To date about $10 million for domestic use and a study of equivalent has been lent to affected alternatives to timber building; and households in a program that was initiated formally on November 16, (vi) housing sector project preparation. 1988; In mid-December 1988, the (ii) advise affected households on basic government requested emergency assistance building techniques and low-cost to rebabilitate schools damaged in the ways of incorporating earthquake- earthquake. Negotiations for a Bank- resistant features in reconstructing financed project were successfully houses; concluded in May 1989. The objectives of the project are the following: (iii) certify, at least in the District Headquarters and urban areas, that (i) rehabilitate about 2,350 schools; earthquake-resistant features have been incorporated into (ii) ensure those schools which are not reconstruction, so that households included in the first year's can qualify for the second tranche construction program have of their loans; temporary accommodation sufficient to permit education through the (iv) train 1,200 rural workers to promote 1990 monsoon season; low-cost sanitation and smokeless stoves; and (iii) combine the tradition of substantial community responsibility for the (v) facilitate the collection of the financing and construction of schools housing loan. into the project; and A program advisor, who is an expert (iv) develop and introduce an in disaster management, has also been appropriate level of cost-effective retained to help the government to earthquake-resistant technology into implement and monitor its reconstruction reconstructed school buildings. program, including its housing component. The project components are the following: In order to mitigate the effects of future disasters, long-term technical (i) schools rehabilitation, including assistance and training is to be provided reconstruction; which will address the following: (ii) provision of construction (i) disaster management; implements, equipment, and 125 vehicles; of 1987 for the roads sector. (iii) support for consultants services (for The World Bank-financed Road assisting in the establishment of Flood Rehabilitation Project was approved monitoring, supervision and in June 1988, and signed in September. accounting systems, and review of Its objectives are the following: schools designs); and (i) deliver immediate assistance to the (iv) assistance with project Department of Roads to repair, administration. rebuild, or replace priority components of flood-damaged road The government has also infrastructure; approached the Asian Development Bank for emergency assistance in reconstructing (ii) help finance the first three years of roads, bridges, and public buildings the program's works, ensuring that damaged in the earthquake. priority is given to elements which would facilitate resumption of road The 1987 floods caused extensive transport activities; damage, again in the Eastern and Central Regions. The government requested (iii) help the Department of Roads emergency assistance from the World Bank accelerate implementation of to repair and rehabilitate roads and urgently needed schemes to protect bridges. In the Terai, the flat area investments that survived the 1987 bordering India, damage resulted from flood; and heavy scour as well as from changes in stream and river courses, which caused (iv) develop and implement a post- the failure of river channelization, monsoon damage monitoring system protection, and river bank stabilization which would enable the department works at approaches to bridges, culverts, to assess and respond quickly and road embankments, and other drainage effectively to urgent damage repair structures. In the hills and the northern and rehabilitation needs. parts of the affected regions, damage was caused by geological and other interlinked geo-dynamic phenomena, such as successive damming up and breaking through caused by landslides in upstream catchment areas and rivers, resulting in the failure of protection works and washout of road sections. The government's response was to provide immediate relief to the affected population, notably with food, shelter, medicine, and construction materials. The armed forces were used to initiate temporary clearance works. The donor community assisted the government in preparing a flood damage assessment report, which was completed by the end 126 Prevention and Mitigation in Mexico Felix A. Jakob Senior Urban Planner Latin America and the Caribbean Country Department The World Bank Natural Hazards: Context and History "Natuldisastershavepanctuated Because of Mexico's location in an "NW &of=M epuncwtha intertropical area and its setting on the reular orec o w*h as conjunction of three tectonic plates, the regular occurrence However, as country represents, like most of its population growth and economic neighbors in Central America, a case of a development have progresse4 nation with unusually high exposure to particukrly since the beginning of natural hazards. As evinced by historical this cenw, the nuber of records, by far the most violent and ihb nts and the amount of consequential among these hazards have been earthquakes and hurricanes. citalsses at isk have increased However, it should not be ignored that at a rapid rate. Fpanding other hazards, such as volcanic eruptions, urbanization has drawn an forest fires, and droughts, which may occur increasingly higher number of with less frequency or produce more inhabitants into areas that prent insidious effects, also carry considerable consderabl seismicwrisk potential for loss and form a permanent and serious threat to the country's economy and population. intensity concentrated primarily on the Earthquakes are undoubtedly the states bordering the Pacific coast and their most severe natural hazards with which vicinity. Seismic risk results principally Mexico is confronted. Risk from from shocks caused by the subduction of earthquakes is permanent in at least 60% the oceanic Rivera and Cocos Tectonic of the territory, with the probability of Plates under the continental Mexico Plate; occurrence of shocks of extremely high normal faulting earthquakes within the Felix A. Jakob is the Senior Urban Planner for the World Bank's Central America Infrastructure and Energy Division, where he works on projects for El Salvador, Honduras, and Mexico. Mr. Jakob is a member of the Bank's Task Force on Natural Disaster Reduction. He joined the Bank in 1980 as an Urban Planner for the African Urban Projects Department, and was a project officer for various operations in francophone West Africa. Prior his Bank appointments, Mr. Jakob worked for over ten years as an independent urban planning consultant in several countries of West and North Africa, and South America. He holds degrees in architecture from the Swiss Polytechnic Institute (ETHZ) at Zurich and urban planning from the University of Paris. 127 subducted oceanic plate, and shallow 5 billion worth of material loss to buildings crustal earthquakes in the continental plate and industrial plants. also occur. Hurricanes and tropical storms principally strike the vicinity of the "In addition to a laIre share of the Caribbean and Atlantic coasts; but their effects resulting from intense precipitation popukation4 asubsnaapmjxlso and associated river flooding can reach far ofMexio'sindustria capacity and inland and over extended areas. vitually all federal government Hurricanes on the Pacific coast are institautions re situated in are of noticeably more frequent, though in general, they are less severe than those on the Caribbean coast. The Jalisco coast, located on the Pacific, experiences storm conditions an average of 70 days per year. Seismic activity is permanent and intense. Between 1900 and 1985, 34 Storms on the Caribbean coast, earthquakes of a magnitude greater than conversely, tend to be significantly more 7.0 on the Richter Scale were recorded - violent and destructive, as last in comparison to five quakes of the same demonstrated in September 1988 by magnitudes which struck California over Hurricane Gilbert. This storm, which the same period of time. Of these Mexican ravaged the Yucatan Peninsula and tremors, five were of a magnitude greater subsequently the Tamaulipas coast and that 8.0 on the Richter Scale, which is inland northern Mexico, was reportedly equivalent to the magnitude of the 1985 one of the strongest atmospherical Mexico City earthquake. Despite the lack disturbances ever recorded in the Western of appropriate recording systems, at least Hemisphere, with winds that at their peak 23 major earthquakes were reported during reached over 180 miles per hour and storm the last century. Data for earlier periods surges which rose to heights of at least 20 are obviously more scant, but can be feet in landfall areas. The toll on human found as far back as pre-colonial times, life of about 200 people may seem high; with an earthquake first being mentioned however, considering the violence of the in an Aztec chronicle for the year 1475. storm, the number of casualties was relatively moderate, thanks largely to a Recurrence of major shocks in well-functioning warning and evacuation different segments of the plates appears to system in the affected coastal areas of the vary from 30 to 70 years. In the past, Yucatan and Quintana Roo. damage was frequently extensive, especially in urban centers and in cities like Material losses, however, were Guadalajara, Mexico City, and Oaxaca, considerable. The tourism industry on the which suffered repeatedly from severe northern Quintana Roo coast is likely to destruction. The vulnerability of urban require several years of reconstruction to centers to seismic shocks was most vividly fully recover. This is reinforced by the demonstrated by the earthquake of extensive reduction of beaches, the severe September 1985, which affected Mexico damage to off-coast coral reefs, and the City, exacting a toll of at least 8,000 lives, disturbance to the overall coastal ecosystem leaving 30,000 injured, destroying or to an extent which still awaits being fully damaging beyond repair over 100,000 assessed. dwellings, and causing between US$4 and 128 Impressive though Hurricane Gilbert Emergency relief following a calamity was was, it was by no means exceptional. In dealt with primarily on an ad hoc basis, 1955, Hurricane Janet totally wrecked the generally by state and local authorities, or city of Chetumal, leaving only four in the event of major disasters, by calling buildings intact, and claimed at least 500 on the armed forces for assistance. casualties throughout Quintana Roo. In Although gradual sophistication of 1967, Hurricane Beulah struck the island surveillance and monitoring technology of Cozumel, destroying at least 40% of all led to progressive improvements in disaster housing and battering the northern coast reduction, particularly in the fields of of the Yucatan before causing catastrophic hurricane warning and emergency flooding throughout northern Mexico and evacuation, a major turn around in the southern United States. official attitude towards hazard prevention and mitigation occurred only in the wake Natural disasters have punctuated of the 1985 earthquake. the history of Mexico with almost regular occurrence. However, as population The response to this calamity was growth and economic development have twofold. On one hand, the government progressed, particularly since the beginning undertook countrywide initiatives to of this century, the number of inhabitants enhance the static prevention of losses and the amount of capital assets at risk from earthquakes and hurricanes as well have increased at a rapid rate. Expanding as from other hazards. The government urbanization has drawn an increasingly ordered the rapid updating of building higher number of inhabitants into areas codes in all 32 states in accordance with that present considerable seismic risk. It the latest results of engineering research is estimated that at least 30% to 40% of in Mexico and abroad. Within a month the population, and probably up to 50% of of the 1985 earthquake, an emergency its urban component, live in areas of building code was adopted for Mexico significant seismic risk. In addition to a City. By late 1988, draft codes had been large share of the population, a substantial prepared for all other states under the proportion of Mexico's industrial capacity auspices of the National Coordination and virtually all federal government Committee (Comite Nacional de Apoyo y institutions are situated in areas of hazard. Seguimiento) and the governments of the Likewise, the tourism industry is located respective states, with assistance from other almost in its entirety in areas of high risk governmental agencies, professional bodies, to earthquakes or hurricanes, or as in the and academic institutions. These codes are cases of Acapulco, Ixtapa, and other resorts currently being reviewed by legal on the Jalisco/Michoacan coast, to both authorities of the states and are expected these hazards. to be approved in the course of this year. On the other hand, the government Prevention and Mitigation: decided to build up the civil defense Past and Present organization and to integrate civil defense into a national system (Sistema Nacional Because natural hazards were de Proteccion Civil), equipped with a traditionally considered as acts of God coherent institutional and legal framework. that could not be predicted let alone Following up on the establishment of the averted, prevention and mitigation of their National Reconstruction Committee possible damaging effects was for a long (Comision Nacional de Reconstruccion), time given only limited attention. created for the purpose of coordinating the 129 reconstruction effort and preparing the However, the recent earthquake of last basis for a medium- and long-term hazard April provided a timely testing ground for prevention and mitigation strategy, a some of the new arrangements and showed working group (Comite de Prevencion de that most of these arrangements were Seguridad Civil) was set up in 1986. This capable of operating rather satisfactorily. new working group defined the institutional and operational conditions required for the creation of a national civil defense system. "Although gradual sophistication Early in 1989, the committee's findings led of surveilne and moniring to the present administration's decision to t wved an mofftoivg create a directorate (Sub-Secretaria de technology led to progresve Proteccion Civil) within the Department of inpmv o in dmtr ra&don Interior (Secretaria de Gobernacion) particularly in the fields of specifically in charge of all matters related huricane warning and emergency to civil defense. evuatio 4 a major turn around . in the official attitude towards The responsibilities which this new pn and togario directorate has been assigned are the haard preveon and mitigation following: oc8 only in the wake of the 1985 earthquake." (i) to prepare and/or help prepare appropriate, institutionally and technically coherent policy approaches to problems of hazard prevention and mitigation at the World Bank Involvement levels of federal, state, and local government; and Bank involvement in the prevention and mitigation of natural hazards in (ii) to oversee and, where necessary, Mexico has been relatively recent and ensure inter-institutional essentially linked to the Earthquake coordination of all activities related Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Project. to mitigation and emergency This project, for which a US $400 million assistance in the case of an occurred loan was approved in spring 1986, was disasters. intended to address the immediate reconstruction and relief needs following To this effect, the directorate would the 1985 Mexico City earthquake and to be in charge of ensuring compliance with initiate the implementation of a long-term the civil defense requirements of new strategy aimed at the efficient prevention industrial, commercial, social, and and mitigation of future natural disasters. residential investment in the public and To this end, the project included funding private sector; preparing contingency plans for an extensive research program in the for hazardous industrial plants; and areas of seismology and seismic assisting public- and private-sector entities engineering, for the aforementioned in establishing guidelines for emergency updating exercise of building codes, and situations. Given the newness of this the implementation of programs to institutional setup, it is evidently premature structural reinforce schools and health care to make any judgement about the facilities in various states exposed to appropriateness of its design and the seismic risk. All in all, the implementation efficiency of its operational structur of this project has been crowned with 130 considerable success and it is expected to be completed by the end of this year. Following up on these earlier efforts, the Bank begun in 1988 the preparation of the Natural Hazard Mitigation Project. As currently designed, this project would follow a two-pronged approach by (a) expanding upon the structural reinforcement programs of school buildings and health care facilities initiated under the preceding project, and extending these programs into geographical areas not covered previously; and (b) providing institutional, and if necessary, material support to the entities in charge of organizing and irproving the civil defense system at the level of the federal government (Sub-Secretaria de Proteccion Civil) and of selected state or local governments, such as that of Mexico City (Departmento del Distrito Federal). 131 Mitigation Efforts at the Municipal Level: The La Paz Municipal Development Project Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard Project Officer Latin America and the Caribbean Country Department The World Bank The World Bank's La Paz Municipal Development Projectprovides aninsightful "La Paz can best be characterized case study of locally based development in support of disaster mitigation as advanced as a city is experiencig a by one of Bolivia's most entrepreneurial continuous eathqwke...After ten institutions, the Municipality of La Paz, and years of flooding and landslides a young and very dynamic mayor. The damage to public and private project was prepared in 1986 and approved property is eractly the same as if in 1987, but its composition was different an earthquake registering an 8.0 from what was initially anticipated and on the Rchter scale had hi quite unconventional in respect to previous projects in the area. A third of the funds went to mitigate disasters, mostly landslides and floods, which had been plaguing the inhabitants. It is located between 3,500 city since its founding in the sixteenth and 4,000 meters above sea level on the century. A third of the project was edge of the altiplano plateau, on which allocated for management upgrading, and Lake Titicaca lies 4,000 meters above sea another third was appropriated for level. The city's vulnerability arises from equipment, mostly in the transport sector. its location in a narrow valley of One may wonder why we designed the impermeable bedrock surrounded by very Municipal Development Project with this steep slopes with highly erodible soil. unusual approach when conventional When the unstable terrain becomes projects had been well-formulated in the saturated with water, it just slips down past. with imaginable consequences: the city loses between 15 and 300 houses each The city of La Paz has one million year, usually with loss of life, and Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard is a Project Officer for the Human Resources Division of the Latin America and Caribbean Country Department III, which serves Colombia, Venezuela, Bolivia, and the Caribbean. Previously, Ms. Plessis-Fraissard was a Project Economist for transport, urban, and infrastructure projects in the North African and Latin American regions. She joined the Bank as a young professional in 1981 following several research and regional planning positions in France and England, and at the European Community. Ms. Plessis-Fraissard has a master's degree in quantitative geography from the University of Paris and a Ph.D. in geography from Leeds University, England. 132 considerable damage is sustained to public First, the city lacks essential infrastructure. and private property. A third of the population is without water, more than half does not have proper sewerage facilities, three-quarters of the "During the initial stages of the area has no rainwater drainage system, prjec4 many of us on the project and more than three-quarters of the streets are not cobbled in any way. On more than teamn were quite pe c about a third of the slopes, not only are there no the prospect of risk reduction. We streets, let alone cobbled ones, but there believed that La Paz's dynamic are no stairs. Stairs are especially geology had taken a tremendous important in La Paz because its precipitous toll throughout the centuries and slopes make road transport impossible provided a nearly mk throughout a large portion of the city. This tremendous lack of infrastructure means problem, human intervention could that the city is always in need of basic perhaps minimally solve La Paz's infrastructure and cannot forego investment predicament Any risk abatement for these basic needs to fund elementary measure would simply be pouring safety measures for hazard reduction. money into an endless pit moneyver,o an thenprojes t wThe second dimension of risk However, as the project was mitigation is the limitation imposed by fomudWt4 we becwme much more administrative and institutional incapacity optimistic thatadisastermitigation to design and enforce land-use plans. In program could be successfully a city where it is simply dangerous to live designed and implemented in a in certain areas, the local government is cost-efficient way." unable to police its population or to collect taxes from the landlords or tenants who reside in hazardous areas. for investment in precautionary measures. When public La Paz can best be characterized as investments are damaged, and once a city that is experiencing a continuous property owned by the residents or earthquake. Earthquakes strike from time landlords are inevitably destroyed, then to time. In La Paz, however, after ten these people become what is commonly years of flooding and landslides, damage called in Latin America flajelados, or to public and private property is exactly victims. Then the city becomes obligated the same as if an earthquake registering to assist these victims, especially if their an 8.0 on the Richter scale had hit. The property has been completely devastated. city is continuously suffering from Typically the scenarios is as follows: landslides. The more than 200 rivers that Peasants move onto hazardous sites crisscross the city further saturate the prohibited for settlement by law. They unstable soil. About half the area of La cut down the trees which stabilize the Paz is unsuitable for development, and of highly erodible soil to construct their course, the city has no capacity to enforce homes. Then, they live on the site for a any type of land-use plan which aims to year or two. When the rains come, their restrict settlement in hazardous areas. houses simply wash away, and the city must then attend to the families for free because La Paz's pervasive vulnerability they are victims. makes risk reduction imperative yet complex because of its many dimensions. The third dimension of the problem 133 is therefore the need to educate the of the city. We obtained a detailed, ten- citizenry about disaster control. It is said year record of the occurrence and damaged that La Paz has the best and the most caused by floods, mudslides, landslides and difficult population. The best because it obstructed rivers. Using this data, a map consists mainly of peasants who know how was drafted to delineate areas of risk for to build very well under the harsh climatic land-use planning. conditions of La Paz. They are a highly skilled population. On the other hand, The second lesson was that the risks these peasants come directly from rural could be quantified. From the map and areas with low population density and scant collected data, individual hazards were tree cover. They possess little knowledge identified and classified according to their about the problems of deforestation or the cost and possible severity. That is, the importance of tree cover for landslide technical team analyzed the cause of each prevention. Typically, they do not hazard from the ten-year record and understand that using urban rivers for prioritized the risk according to its garbage disposal causes floods, which in consequence, whether it would be relatively turn saturates the surface of terrain and small or very extensive. The most severe further exacerbates flooding and landslides. hazards were notably landslides, mudslides. and floods. The team ascertained with a While preparing the Municipal reasonable degree of confidence the total Development Project, the Bank's project cost of damage. With this analysis, the team, which I was responsible for, realized team prepared a pre-investment program that any viable hazard reduction program for risk reduction. would need to address these three critical dimensions. However, during the initial stages of the project, many of us on the dim d off project team were quite pessimistic about s nigaton cou l be the prospect of risk reduction. We afater mitigtincovld ae believed that La Paz's dynamic geology afordable, cost-efectiv4 and had taken a tremendous toll on the city whin the realm of La Pa's throughout the centuries and provided a need." nearly insurmountable problem; human intervention could perhaps minimally solve La Paz's predicament. Any risk abatement measure would simply be pouring money The third lesson was that risk into an endless pit. However, as the mitigation could be quantified and project was formulated, we became much programmed. For every zone within city more optimistic that a disaster mitigation limits and for every type of risk, the program could be successfully designed and imminence of each disaster was identified. implemented in a cost-efficient way. With a detailed description of origin and Simultaneously, we uncovered numerous consequence of each risk, the likelihood lessons. of a disaster was measured as possible, probable, or imminent. The team The first lesson of the project was ascertained whether the hazard would that the risk of landslides and flooding occur during the next rainy season, or three could be measured. The project's early to five years later. Risk reduction phase involved hiring a team of eco- measures were defined and prioritized geologists and urban planners to conduct accordingly. These measures may have geomorphologic and hydrologic analyses prescribed extending canalization, 134 rebuilding containment walls, or cleaning inhabitants, invested $300,000, or 30 up a river. The team screened the city centimes per capita. This amount is very and then prioritized a whole series of small. Investment grew to $7.5 million in prevention/mitigation works. Disaster 1987, and we estimated that investment reduction consisted of constructing flood, will reach $9.0 million in 1989. In fact, landslide, and erosion control works along we calculated that the municipality could drainage basins, and setting up solid waste invest $18.0 million per year, or $18 per collection and equipment maintenance capita, a figure which is quite acceptable systems. in view of the country's low income. The project's final lesson was that To ensure the project's success, a risk reduction could be addressed with set of conditions for municipal and measures affordable to the city. After financial management was established. prioritizing the risk-reduction works, we These conditions were attached to the calculated that disaster prevention and credit agreement as a part of the preparedness would cost $500,000 in 1987 "Investment in Modernization Program." and total about $2.5 million, or $2.50 per The objective of the exercise was to capita, if adequate maintenance was support works in hazard reduction through provided. This amount is far exceeded by technical assistance and financial and annual losses from natural disasters, municipal management. In particular, estimated at $8 per capital. With this disaster management and emergency minimal level of funding, disaster readiness was to be institutionalized within mitigation could be affordable, cost- the municipal government. Agencies effective, and within the realm of La Paz's responsible for different aspects of disaster needs. Once the work was prioritized, we reduction were coordinated into a coherent looked at the institutional set up needed organizational framework, contingency to accomplish the task. We realized that plans to facilitate communications following the city needed a special administrative a disaster were prepared, and an early structure, one that organized normal warning system was established. In maintenance and investment procedures additional, civil servants would receive during the eight months of the dry season, training on various disaster-related topics, and one that could shift its entire and a pilot program to educate and involve operational system for the four months of the community in disaster prevention and flooding and landslides during the rainy preparedness activities was set up. season. During months of high vulnerability, the administration would Perhaps the La Paz Municipal attend to emergency response and Development Project could not measure mitigation almost exclusively. up to Californian standards, but it could certainly reduce the loss of life and obviate In addition, our efforts were considerable damage to public and private directed at providing the municipal property in La Paz. resources to achieve the project's objectives. With the project component to improve the municipality's management, revenues could be generated and technical capacity expanded to prepare and execute general urban development projects. The city's investment capabilities would grow. In 1985, La Paz, with its one million 135 Comments by the Panel Moderator Thakoor Persaud Senior Housing Specialist Latin America and the Caribbean Technical Department The World Bank We have heard various presentations on the specific aspects of how countries are "The cost-ben analysiindicata attempting to prevent and mitigate natural tat it is logical for a count to disasters. Before we conclude this session, that t oaoraunty to I would like to make a few observations jump at the opportunity to invest about some of the points made earlier and and take the preventive and how they tie in to what is occurring at the mitigative efforts for dealing with country level. disaster. The question then becomes, why are countries not We heard presentations today telling investing in disaster mitigation?" us that ample documentation exists to describe the extent of damage and suffering caused by natural disasters. The cost- benefit analysis indicates that it is logical their term, or more likely of a shorter for a country to jump at the opportunity to duration if the disaster strikes later. The invest and take the preventive and priority for the policy maker is basically mitigative efforts for dealing with disasters. different - disasters are more of a long- The question then becomes, why are term phenomenon for them. From the countries not investing in disaster policy makers' point of view, because of mitigation? There are many randomness in location and frequency of interpretations of the answer. I think one disasters, it does not make sense to react of things we should look at is, perhaps, the way we expect them to, especially when one key element which causes a country's they have more immediate priorities and policy makers to interpret the situation they can count upon external assistance if differently; namely, policy makers have a and when a disaster does occur. different time horizon compared to the general long-term planner. If you look at Consequently, if we look at the way individual countries, policy makers at most resources have to be allocated and the may be in office about six years if a planning system has to prepare and disaster occurs just at the beginning of accommodate to risk, then decision makers Thakoor Persaud is a Senior Housing Specialist in the Latin America and Caribbean Technical Department. He joined the Bank in 1976 after receiving a Ph.D. in economics from Texas Tech University, and he worked on projects in Africa and Asia before moving to the Latin American region. He has been involved in Bank reconstruction operations in Guatemala, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Jamaica. Mr. Persaud recently prepared a data base and reference-source orientation material to assist regional staff working in emergency lending operations. He is a member of the Bank's Task Force on Natural Disaster Reduction. 136 customarily do not see much sense in tieing prevent future occurrences." At that time, up substantial resources to deal with a big however, all resources have to be diverted and unpredictable event. To some extent, toward getting things going again. The this phenomenon occurs even in countries emergency is immediate - relief needs to where the frequency and occurrence of a be administered. The victims are hazard is known. Let me digress a bit in struggling just to put their lives back this case because I have a good illustration together. At this frantic time, instead of to draw upon. thinking about relocating people away from hazardous areas, the government and relief In many countries today, issues community is trying to provide shelter to involving the maintenance of facilities are the homeless with the implicit or explicit of paramount importance. We know that understanding that it is a temporary move if a planner is designing a road with a set and that these victims will return to normal of technical specifications, there are various shelter in safer zones at some later time. factors that can be predicted, for example, how long the road will last under normal conditions with proper maintenance. With 'We have to set goals which are in these predictions and documentation of l w the governent's term, factors contributing to a road's longevity, it is still difficult to convince a policy emphasizing shorter-life tasks for maker that maintenance is important, even admnstrations in the mW-te:m if the cost-benefit results are quite obvious. and longer tasks for newer Then, superimpose upon this situation the administrations. In order to reach fact that policy makers have many the informal sector, we have to competing demands where they are usually seek the aid of NGOs and other firefighting rather than making plans, and that the overhanging debt crisis creates lbcly-basedintiutins (churches tight budgets in an environment of cooperatives, etc.), which have uneasiness and restlessness among the access to the informal sector and population. With these additional are highly regarded by thepeople." considerations, you find that people begin to look more on a day-to-day planning horizon compared to the long-term perspective in which we are deliberating. Then, the development community embarks on a long-term study to see what So unless we take these factors into needs to be done. Most of the donor account when making suggestions to policy agencies agree to assist in reconstruction makers, we are going to have a tough time activities with adequate prevention and of getting our recommendations accepted. mitigation measures. But as you drift away And unfortunately, one of the from the disaster, what happens? The contradictions we encounter occurs when window of opportunity begins to close. a country is most receptive to our People look at the zinc sheet on their roofs recommendations, in the aftermath of a and they say, "Well, it lasted four weeks, disaster, is the time it cannot take many it will last another four." Priorities begin of the recommended actions. Let me to change again. The government claims explain. A country experiences a disaster. that there are other urgent demands. Everyone bemoans it and says, 'This Shortages of food and petroleum compel disaster should never happen again. We policy makers to divert resources to the should take all necessary precautions to provision of these necessities. 137 In essence, the complications administrations. In order to reach the encountered dictate the actions taken. informal sector, we have to seek the aid And even if we get to a point where good of NGOs and other locally-based recommendations made by a well-equipped institutions (churches, cooperatives, etc.), team are available, the recommendations which have access to the informal sector are usually just applicable to the formal and are highly regarded by the people. sector. In the case of housing, often we Seconding of experienced staff for specific are addressing about twenty percent of the tasks can also help overcome inertia and population. The informal sector will bureaucratic impediments. continue to comprise a significant proportion of the population. The impact of well-designed recommendations will thus aWe hae to be aware of the still ignore a large share of the population concerns of various partic4m unless special efforts are made to reach a dmdfy th zone of COiO- this level. adied h oeo oni dence of interest among policy Look at the other part of disaster mak , internationalandregional prevention, retrofitting. As a development enlts citizens and NGOs." planner, you come up with items to be purchased and steps to be taken to reinforce a hospital, school, or health center. At the same time, the minister of The great strides now being made health tells you that there is a long waiting in construction technology and early list for new hospitals in the country. The warning systems are having a significant hospital is in demand. How do you set positive impact in saving lives and your priorities? minimizing losses. In this area, we also have to make sure that the technology is I hope I am not giving a gloomy appropriate, accessible, and cost effective picture of what is happening and what can if it is to have a wide measure of be done. We need to look at the situation acceptance. There should be an active realistically because it helps us to program aimed at bringing these tools to understand the thinking processes behind the people and making them cognizant of many of the actions taken and we can the benefits. We have to be aware of the therefore plan our responses accordingly. concerns of various participants and It would be nice to be able to legislate or identify the zone of coincidence of interest put conditions in our loans mandating a among policy makers, international and country to take steps to mitigate future regional entities, the citizens and NGOs, disasters, but unfortunately, I do not think and build upon this through appropriate this method would be successful. In some programs in schools, churches, countries, we have had success in setting demonstration projects, etc., to constantly realistic mitigation and prevention goals reinforce the system. and dividing these into specific discrete steps with measurable achievement targets to show progress and keep interest in the operation alive. This also means that we have to set goals which are in line with the government's term, emphasizing shorter-life tasks for administrations in the mid-term and longer tasks for newer 138 Part IV. Concluding Session *As I speak to you the damage caused by Hrricane Hugo is still being assesed in the Eastern Caribbean Islands of Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Donca, St. ffifs and Nevis, Guadelnupe, the Vgin Island and Puerto Rico. At our meeting just one year ago we had to confront the destruction caused by Hurricane Gilbet. . Tese natura disasters emphasize with stark and frightening reality the vulnerabilty of the countries of the region. Many har-won gains of economic development can be wiped out in a few hours by an act of nature and it takes many years for countries to attain their former economic status. ·· John G.M. Compton, Prime Minister of St. Lucia, before the 1989 World Bank/ IMF Annual Meeting ,ZJ4 . Concluding Remarks to the Colloquilum Kenneth W. Piddington Director The Environment Deparment The World Bank I believe we have had a rich series of presentations today. We started with "I he no digreement about the the generality of the Decade, moved folowing propositions. We should through the day to particular issues, and fling ropam t We shl concluded with specific case studies. bring hazard assessnent and availabl Someone said before the last session that infornation into our baseline the case study panel would bring us down environmental studies and environ- to earth, and I think, indeed, that is the mentalassessments. Mitigationshould sequence which we needed. be inegated into design work I would not be surprised aft er all the complaints I certainly do not propose to sum aot e dditioal comtlfor up all that has gone on today. I leave the about the additional cost for major task to Alcira Kreimer and environmental protection or risk colleagues in the Environment Department management to find that thee costs We mentioned that a publication of the are relatively smalL" record of proceedings will be prepared, which I think will be of great value. I would like, very simply, to draw some of the policy leads which have emerged during If we are looking ahead to the the day. Before I move into my 1990s, on whatever scenario, we are conclusion, I would like to thank colleagues looking at a period when the environ- from the other institutions who came to mental crisis of the world will deepen. join us today. I think we have been We have had exchanges today about the rewarded by your participation and pressure on space, the increase of contribution. I am also very pleased to population, the consumption of resources, have had Marilyn Quayle with us this and the degradation of natural systems. afternoon. But, we also know that there will be international and national action to address I think you have collectively left a these issues. The fascinating question for challenge to the Bank. The first thing to a policy analyst is not an academic one: say is that we are in the mood to pick up Does the feedback mechanism functions that challenge. You will recall that the sufficiently well for changes in policy to subtitle for the Colloquium was, "A Look take place and for the worst situations to To The 1990s". Perhaps, in looking ahead, be averted? In the special area we have we have to begin by looking back on been discussing today, that question is very experience. I return to my theme of this relevant. morning. We heard Erik Arrhenius present 141 his scenario of more extreme events: the Hercules arrived with canned food. We increase frequency of the hundred-year have forgotten how to develop," that key flood so that it becomes a seventy-year phase which was used early on today, flood, and so forth. I am aware that Mr. "resilience to cope." Webster said we should avoid fatalism. I think his message was addressed to his colleagues in the media, but perhaps, it "EWou told us what is actuaty should also be taken on board by the available. In the area of technooy, bankers. I imagine there is nothing worse than a fatalistic banker. You do not want we have conuunication system to go to your bank and be confronted with hardware and satellites which can a message of fatalism. assist considerably. At the human resource leve4 awareness is growing What then are the positive messages among oficiAs involved in planning we can take away from the Colloquium? and decision-naking. A vaie y of I found that there were quite a number. ancin ng A able o agencies and NGOs are able to move First, experts told us what is actually in a positive way. And information is available. In the area of technology, we increasingly available and the have communication systems, hardware, machiney for coordination does exist " and satellites which can assist considerably. At the human resource level, awareness is growing among officials involved in planning and decision-making. A variety One also finds in disaster situations of agencies and NGOs are able to move that there is a cross-cultural aspect. What in a positive way. And information is one culture may express as fatalism, for increasingly available and the machinery example, the acceptance of loss of lives in for coordination does exist. a hurricane situation, would surprise the outsider for whom the hurricane is an As a former foreign service officer extraordinary event. I referred earlier to who dealt in a minor way with disaster the familiarity of risk; the risk we accept relief operations in the South Pacific and because we live with it. Mr. Sykes made Peru, I was intrigued that there was no an interesting point about the use of local reference to the diplomatic network, which vernacular to get the message across. In moves very efficiently at the time of a that instant, he spoke of a bard who sang disaster. There is nothing an ambassador messages in the local Bangladesh wants to do more than to be helpful to a vernacular for a project aimed at disaster government which is stricken with a mitigation. disaster situation. We heard also about regional The second set of positive messages arrangements in the eastern Pacific and in I heard concerns the use of traditional the Caribbean, where in the judgments of techniques to deal with disasters. In the the experts, there is a mechanism which South Pacific, a school of thought exists can assist in handling disaster situations. among island leaders which says, "We have coped with hurricanes, our ancestors dealt A third point which may be of with disasters, and we survived, or most of immediate concern to us in the Bank and us did." The islanders continue, "We have in the environmental community, is the lost some of these techniques, because the question of how we can develop and, 142 indeed, are developing a code of conduct Above all, we must see the link for environmental assessment, including between natural disasters and sustainability. hazard assessment. An interesting As someone said, "invulnerability" can be exchange occurred when Stephen Lintner equated to "sustainability." We were asked was in the chair on the question on to bring long-run economics into the conditionality. calculation; a key point in terms of the concept of sustainability. To come back to Let me express a view which my original question of the cost at the endorses what was said from the floor margin of additional protection, if by about the limits of conditionality. I find adding five or ten percent to a project's colleagues in the Bank are not convinced cost, you insure that it is sustainable in a that conditionality is the key to producing disaster situation, then you have achieved results. As I said earlier, we will make far sustainability and greater benefit. more progress in the environmental area through dialogue and cooperation with our Similarly, with technology, I think borrowing countries. The message I get there was a strong message that we have from New York from the United Nations, the opportunity in the Bank to not simply and I am sure Philippe Boulle would study, but to foster the use of technology endorse this, is that Third World that can be sustainable in a disaster ambassadors do not want to hear the situation. I see a link between the use of World Bank talking about conditionality technology for communications and the in the context of the environment. management of protected areas. A particular interest of mine in my earlier Where should the Bank be heading responsibilities for national parks in New from here? I thought again Stephen Zealand was the degree to which the parks Lintner gave a us keynote message when service's communications network was vital he said, "Obviously, we have to go beyond to the country's response to disasters, which where we have been." Indeed, I hear no often happened in remote areas. disagreement about the following propositions. We should bring hazard The Bank has a role in providing a assessment and available information into degree of continuity, someone said, our baseline environmental studies and between disaster, and certainly after the environmental assessments. Mitigation immediate reaction to the disaster when should be integrated into design work. I it is not a good time to ask decision would not be surprised after all the makers to focus even on the medium term. complaints about the additional cost for Alcira has been looking at that in the environmental protection or risk context of her work in Mexico. We would, management to find that these costs are as you might expect, turn to work on relatively small. The case studies have institutions, which is a matter of general illustrated this point. We also must make interest in the environmental area and one the link with natural resource management which we at the Environment Department and make this explicit as part of our are giving high priority. We can look at environmental work. This must be loaded ways in which information and into the policy dialogue. The Bank itself, communication techniques are more widely and I speak as a relative newcomer, can available for response. learn from its extensive experience. Mr. Harth's paper clearly points to the lesson Can I leave you with two parting which are to be drawn. thoughts? 143 The first is that military technology should be linked with peaceful technology, 7Ibeeve there is an opporunity in the such the available technologies discussed peon bete by Glenn Morgan, to provide needed prawe clmate of dkscunsimn between environmental information. I have long the Soviet Union and the United States felt that we are losing opportunities in the to utilz edst technolog in the oceans of the world, where the next militay area for the real security of the environmental crisis after the atmosphere wor4 which surely lies in the care of is surely building up. We are not watching its enviromm " to see what happens to toxic materials day- to-day. We have the technology -- the superpowers certainly have the technology to detect what is happening. What, for achieved. I believe it has been the most example, happened to the payload of the successful event. Of course, Alcira, the ship that left the coast of Madagascar with Colloquium takes us onto the next stage. a full cargo of toxic waste and arrived We ask for no more than to have the empty in Singapore?I believe there is an challenge before us, which I have opportunity in the present climate of mentioned earlier. I think an event like discussion between the Soviet Union and this also helps to develop networks. And the United States to utilize existing surely in this institutional world, networks, technology in the military area for the real as in the village, are still the most efficient security of the world, which surely lies in means of transacting business. the care of its environment. I would like to thank the conveners, Now, the second parting thought. who brought together the different sessions Was it not interesting that there were only and kept us remarkably close to our one or two references to resources? They timetable, and all those who have were in the vein that resources are contributed, colleagues in the Bank and normally available to deal with the disaster others. And the event, of course, does not situation and the immediate response. take place without the work of a support These references were in the vein that, team. You have seen Michele Zador "Yes, there may be some additional costs having everything ready as we move into for prevention and mitigation, but if we did the next stage. Thank you, Michele. You the sums right, the costs would be will note from your binder that Marriatu justifiable." I did not hear the usual chorus Morton assisted, as did Olivia McNeal, who which is, "If only we had the resources. If has been sitting patiently waiting to deal only the resources could be made with any disaster that may occur. available," subtitled, "If only the Bank could print more money." So with thanks to all those people, could I just close by wishing you all the I feel that we have a very positive best and thank you for being part of this conclusion to the day and I wanted to event. share those thoughts with you. Many contributors expressed their own thanks to Alcira Kreimer for the effort she put into organizing this event and the thought in planning it. I want to reiterate my own acknowledgement of what she has 144 園国国国日国日国国日日国日日日日 APPENDICES 園日国国国国国国国国日国園国国国 Appm& A CoRoquium Prop= DISASTERS,, SUSTMNABHffY,, AND DEVEMPMENT: A LOOK TO THE 1990s Tuesday, June 6, 1989 9:00 a.m to 5:00 p.nL Room J B'1-080 701 18th Street, N.W., Washingtor4 D.C. The World Bank A Colloquium Sponsored By The Environment Department & The Human Resources Development Division, The World Bank Colloquium Coordinator Alcira G. Kreimer, The Enviroranent Department 9:00 INTRODUCTION Introductory Remarks Kenneth W. Piddington, Director of the Environment Department, The World Bank. "Disasters, Sustainability, Development: A Look to the 1990s.* Alcira G. Kreimer, Urban Environmental Specialist of the Environment Department, The World Bank. 9:30 THE INTERNATIONAL DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION (IDNDR) "Background to the IDNDR." Stephen Rattien, Deputy Executive Director of the Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems, National Research Council. "Formation of National Committees for the IDNDR.' Richard E. Hallgren, Executive Director, American Acteorological Society, and Chair of the IDNDR Committee, National Academy of Sciences. "Planning for International Participation in the Dmde." Philippe L Boulle, Director of the New York Liaison Office, United Nations Office of the Disaster Relief Coordinator (UNDRO). Moderator: Everardo, Wessels, Technical Director of the Latin America and Caribbean Country Department The World Bank. 147 10:40 COFFEE BREAK 10:50 VULNERABLITY: COMMUNICATIONS AND TECHNOLOGY "International Disaster Communications." David Webster, Director of the International Disaster Communications Project, The Annenberg Washington Program, Northwestern University. "The Role of NGOs in the Reduction of Vulnerability." Charles Sykes, Assistant Executive Director, CARE. "Communications in Relief: Armenia, Bangladesh, and Sudan.- Frederick M. Cole, Assistant Director of Asia and the Pacific, Office of US. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA), Agency for International Development. "Technology Transfer and Disasters." Francisco R. Sagasti, Division Chief at the Strategic Planning and Review Department, The World Bank. "Natural Disaster Mitigation* World Bank Operational Policy Issues." Alberto Harth, Operations Adviser of the Central Operations Department, The World Bank. Moderator. N. Erik A. Arrhenius, Principal Adviser on Science and Technology to the Vice President of Sector and Policy Research, The World Bank. 12:30 LUNCH BREAK 2:00 REGIONAL EFFORTS FOR DISASTER REDUCTION "Response Efforts in Health Emergency Preparedness." Dr. Jose Luis Zeballos, Medical Officer, Pan American Health Organization. "Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Latin America and the Caribbean." Stephen o. Bender, Project Chief of the Natural Hazards Project, Organization of American States. "Satellite Remote Sensing Applications for Natural Hazard Preparedness and Emergency Response Planning." Glenn S. Morgan, Environmental Officer at the Environment Department, The World Bank. Moderator Stephen F. Lintner, Senior Environmental Specialist of the Europe, Middle East, and North Africa Environment Division, The World Bank. 3:30 COFFEE BREAK 148 3:40 COUNTRY EFFORTS TO PREVENT AND MITIGATE NATURAL DISASTERS "Recovery and Mitigation Efforts in Bangladesh and Nepal." Patrick E. McCarthy, Senior Financial Analyst of Asia Country Department I, The World Bank. "Prevention and Mitigation in Mexico." Felix A. Jakob, Senior Urban Planner of Latin America and Caribbean Country Department I, The World Bank. "Mitigation Efforts at the Municipal Level: The La Paz Municipal Development Project." Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard, Project Officer of the Latin America and Caribbean Country Department III, The World Bank. Moderator: Thakoor Persaud, Senior Housing Specialist of the Latin America and Caribbean Technical Department, The World Bank. 4:45 COLLOQUIUM CONCLUSION Kenneth W. Piddington, Director of the Environment Department, The World Bank. 5:00 RECEPTION 149 APPENDIX B. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS Adelaida Alicbusan *Stephen 0. Bender The Environment Department Natural Risk Assessment and Disaster The World Bank Mitigation Pilot Project Organization of American States Mary Anderson International Relief/Development Project Ulrich Boegli Harvard University General Services Department The World Bank *Erik A. Arrhenius Office of the Vice President *Philippe Boulle Sector Policy & Research United Nations Disaster Relief The World Bank Co-ordinator (UNDRO) Denise Balzano Suzanne Brooks Office of Mrs. Quayle Volunteers in Technical Assistance Tevita Banuve Jonathan Brown The World Bank Africa Country Department The World Bank Peter Barss Injury Prevention Center John Burfield Johns Hopkins University Louis Berger International Lynn Belland Franldin Cardy Interaction Africa Country Department The World Bank Mourad Benachenhou Executive Director's Office Nancy Clements The World Bank Latin American Technical Department The World Bank * Colloquium speaker or moderator 151 Nelson Coar Marcos Ghattas Office of Multilateral Development Banks Executive Director's Office U.S. Department of Treasury The World Bank Michael Colby Jean-Louis Ginnz Strategic Planning & Review Department Latin America & The Caribbean Country The World Bank Department The World Bank *Frederick Cole Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance *Richard Hallgren U.S. Agency for International Development American Meteorological Society U.S. IDNDR Committee Evelyn Cortez-Fusco Industry & Energy Department Toneema Haq The World Bank Central Operations Department The World Bank Surinder Deol Human Resources Development Division Ernest Hardy The World Bank The Environment Department The World Bank Martha Desrosiers Project Hope *Alberto Harth Central Operations Department The World Bank Aly el Tobgy Europe, Middle East & North Africa Country Department Vibeke Hemi The World Bank Danish Civil Defense and Emergency Planning Agency John English The Environment Department Fay Henderson The World Bank Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance U.S. Agency for International Development Donald Finberg Pan American Development Foundation Gudren Huden Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance U.S. Agency of International Development Donald Geiss Architectural Research Council John Innes Africa Country Department VI The World Bank 152 *Felix Jakob Spyros Margetis Latin America & The Caribbean Country Europe, Middle East & North Africa Department Technical Department The World Bank The World Bank Dennis King *Patrick McCarthy Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance Asian Country Department U.S. Agency for International Development The World Bank Maritta Koch-Weser Pilar Moreno Latin America & Caribbean Country Inter-American Development Bank Department The World Bank *Glenn Morgan The Environment Department *Alcira Kreimer The World Bank The Environment Department The World Bank Lisa Mullins Interaction Paul Krumpe Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance U.S. Agency for International Development Andrew Natsios Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance U.S. Agency of International Development Ved Kumar Africa Technical Department The World Bank Peter Nicholas Asia Country Department The World Bank Pierre Leger Bryler Corporation Per Nyegaard Danish Civil Defense and Emergency *Stephen Lintner Planning Agency Europe, Middle East & North Africa Technical Department The World Bank Ronald Parker International Relief/Development Project Harvard University Carl Lundin Office of the Vice President Sector Policy & Research Aung Pe The World Bank Executive Director's Office The World Bank 153 *Thakoor Persaud *Francisco Sagasti Latin America Technical Department Strategic Planning & Review Department The World Bank The World Bank Ib Peterson Peter Sebastian Executive Director's Office Bryler Corporation The World Bank Narendra Sharma Paul Peterson Asian Technical Department Worldvision The World Bank *Kenneth Piddington Mauricio Silva The Environment Department Economic Development Institute The World Bank The World Bank George Plant Jacqueline Snyder Asia Country Department Executive Director's Office The World Bank The World Bank *Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard *Charles Sykes Latin America & The Caribbean Country CARE Department The World Bank Ellen Tillier Office of the Vice President Marilyn Quayle Sector Policy & Research The World Bank Rosalinda Quintanilla International Economics Department Gilbert Tisnado The World Bank Goddard Space Light Center NASA *Stephen Rattien Commission on Engineering and Technical Boris Utria Systems Industry & Energy Department National Research Council The World Bank National Academy of Sciences Jan Vermeren John Redwood Organization of American States Operations Evaluation Department The World Bank 154 J.A. Nicholas Wallis Economic Development Institute The World Bank Thomas Waltz Office of the Vice President Sector Policy & Research The World Bank *David Webster The Annenberg Washington Program Northwestern University *Everardo Wessels Latin America & The Caribbean Technical Department The World Bank Leslie Whitworth U.S. Committee for UNICEF Peter Woodrow International Relief/Development Project Harvard University Michele Zador The Environment Department The World Bank Mario Zelaya Europe, Middle East & North America Country Department The World Bank *Jose Luis Zeballos Pan American Health Organization 155