Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY c-a /5S7- so Report No. 7270-SO STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT SOMALIA CENTRAL RANGELANDS ]ESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROJECT PHASE II September 15, 1988 Agriculture Operations Eastern Africa Department Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their o.licial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Official Exchange Rate 1/: US$ 1.00 - 100 Somalia Shillings (SoSh) SoSh 1.00 = 0.01 US $ Shadow Exchange Rate 2/: US$ 1.00 = 203 SoSh : SoSh 1.00 = 0.004 US 1/ In effect March 1988, during appraisal. 2/ Estimated for March 1988. WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System CALENDAR Fiscal Year: January 1 - December 31 Cropping Year: April - June (Gu Season) October - December (Dayr Season) FOR OFFICIL USE ONLY ABBREVIATIONS ADF - African Development Fund CRDP - Central Rangelands Development Project CRDP I - Central Rangelands Development Project, Phase I CRDP II - Central Rangelands Research and Development Project, Phase II FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization FUA - Units of Account of the African Development Fund GTZ - Deutsche Gesellshaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit ICB - International Competitive Bidding IDA - International Development Association IFAD - International Fund for Agricultural Development ILCA - International Livestock Center for Africa LCB - Local Competitive Bidding MLFR - Ministry of Livestock, Forestry and Range MOA - Ministry of Agriculture MOF - Ministry of Finance NRA - National Range Agency PPF - Project Preparation Facility (of IDA) RLA - Range and Livestock Association UNDP - United Nations Development Program USAID - United States Agency for International Development WDA - Water Development Authority WFP - Wnrld Food Program This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. SOM(ALIA CENTRAL RANGELANDS UESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROJECT, PHASE II TABLE OF CONTENTS | ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Page No. CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMHARY I. PROJECT BACKGROUND AND THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR A. Project Background .............................. 1 B. Agriculture and Livestock in the Economy ........ 1 C. Government Institutions and Support Services .... 3 D. Donor Support for Livestock Development ......... 4 II. THE PROJECT AREA AND BENEFICIARIES A. Agroecological Features Pnd P2pulations ......... 4 B. Land Tenure and Land Use ... 10 C. Infrastructure ................................. 15 D. Marketing . . ..................................... 15 E. Institutions ................................... 16 F. Results and Lessons from Phase I ... 18 III. THE PROJECT A. Project Rationale. .................. 20 B. Objectives and Description . . . 21 C. Detailed Features ... 22 Systems Investigation and Monitoring ... 22 Extension .... 22 Agropastoral Adaptive Trials and Forestry. 23 Animal Health and Livestock Production .... 23 Water and Infrastructure Development ... 24 Conservation ... 24 Training .................................. 25 Project Management . ....................... 25 D. Project Costs . . ................................. 26 E. Startup Activities ... 26 F. Financing ......... . . . 27 G. Procurement . . ................................... 28 H. Disbursements . . ................................. 30 I. Accounts and Audit ... 31 J. Women and the Project ... 31 K. Environmental Impact ... 32 This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission in March 1988, which included Messrs. J. Coates and H. Walshe (Bank) and Messrs. D. Peden and J.G. Stephenson (Consultants). - ii - Page No. IV. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION A. Organization and Management . . 32 B. Component Implementation ....................... 34 C. Technical Assistance .......................... 40 D. Planning, Monitoring and Reporting . . 41 V. PRODUCTION, MARKETS AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS A. Incremental Production ........................ 42 B. Markets and Prices . . ........................... 43 C. Beneficiary Income Levels . . .................... 44 D. Cost Recovery ............................. 45 VI. BENEFITS, JUSTIFICATION AND RISKS A. Economic Analysis .............................. 46 B. Non-quantifiable Benefits . . 47 C. Risks and Sensitivity Analysis ................. 48 VII. AGREEMENTS REACHED A. General Conditions ............................. 49 B. Dated Covenants ............................... 50 C. Conditions of Effectiveness .................... 50 ANNEXES Annex 1: Estimated Schedule of Disbursements Annex 2: Inflation and Exchange Rate Assumptions Annex 3: Project Cost Tables Annex 4: Cost - Benefit Analysis Annex 5: Implementation Schedule Annex 6: Ministerial Directive Separating NRA and CRDP Annex 7: Organizational Structure Annex 8: List of Supporting Documents in Project File IBRD Maps No. 20786, 20787, 20788 SOMALII CENTRAL RANGELANDS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROJECT, PHASE II Credit and Prolect Summary borrower: The Peoples Democratic Republic of Somalia Amount: SDR 14.7 (US$ 19.0 million equivalent) Termss Standard IDA terms with 40 year maturity Cofinancings ADF FUA 8.6 million (US$ 11.0 million equivalent) Objectivest This second phase project is designed to maintain and improve the long-term productivity of the Central Rangelands, and raise the living standards of pastoralists. This would be pursued by minimizing degradation of vegetation, improving understanding of rangelands production systems, and improving the efficiency of livestock production. Componentss The six year project is estimated to cost US$ 33.3 million and includes: (i) Systems Investigation and Monitoring to study production systems, formulate management plans and monitor agroecological indicators; (ii) Zxtension to disseminate improved technology, organize RLAs to manage project infrastructure, and support village development initiatives; (iii) Agropastoral Adaptive Trials and Forestry to test improved agricultural practices, produce improved seed, and expand forestry activities in the region; (iv) Animal Health and Livestock Production to expand the program of village level examination and treatment; (v) Water and Infrastructure Development to construct and maintain boreholes, dugouts, and wells and improve roads and airstrips; (vi) Conservation to protect key flora and fauna in the project area and the Northern Rangelands; (vii) Training to provide continued support to the University and short-term and medium-term training opportunities overseas; and (vAii) Project Management to manage project and NRA activities in the region. Benefits: The main benefits will come from the reduced degradation of the rangelands, due to: (i) improved range management and the introduction of different types of reserves; (ii) research into rangeland production (vegetation, climate, soils, herd dynamics) to design further measures to maintain or increase productivity, reduce erosion of natural resources, and improve living standards; (iii) organization of pastoralists, resulting in improved management and maintenance of common range and water resources; (iv) improved NRA/CRDP control and management of potentially exploitative practices such as charcoal production, and private enclosure of rangeland; and (v) CRDP actions to stabilize dunes, plant trees, grow forage, and disseminate improved, less erosive cultivation practices. In addition, there will be productive benefits due to the - iv - impact of an expanded animal health program. additional temporary water points, and dissemination of more productive cultivation techniques. Risks: A key risk is that pastoralists may be slow to adopt different approaches to range utilization, due to the long term, generalized nature of the benefits. Another risk is that implementation may be delayed due to shortages of fuel and supplies, and that inadequate local salaries may reduce local staff effectiveness. The project is designed to minimize these risks. Local Foreign Total ---------(US$ million)---- Estimated Component Costs Systems Investigation and Mionitoring 0.4 3.3 3.7 Extension 1.5 2.5 4.0 Agropastoral Adaptive Trials/Forestry 0.4 1.7 2.1 Animal Health/Livestock 0.2 2.1 2.3 Water and Infrastructure 0.6 3.0 3.6 Conservation 0.9 1.7 2.6 Training 0.4 2.1 2.c Project Management 2.0 5.3 7.3 Baseline Cost 6.4 21.7 28.1 Physical Contingencies 0.4 1.3 1.7 Price Contingencies 0.9 2.6 3.5 Total Project Cost 7.7 25.6 33.3 _ l= ..===== ===w= Financing Plan IDA 1.7 17.3 19.0 ADF 2.7 8.3 11.0 Government of Somalia 3.3 3.3 Total Financing 7.7 25.6 33.3 Estimated Disbursements From IDA Credit (US$ million): IDA Fiscal Year 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 Annual 0.7 4.6 3.2 2.9 3.5 2.6 1.5 Cumulative 0.7 5.3 8.5 11.4 14.9 17.5 19.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------__---- Economic Rate of Return: 10o IBRD Maps No. 20786. 20787, 20788 SOMALIA CENTRAL RANGELANDS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROJECT, PHASE II I. PROXACT BACKGROUND AND TEE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR A. Project Background 1.1 The Government of Somalia (GOS) has requested that the International Development Association (IDA) and the African Development Fund (ADF) finance Phase II of the Central Rangelands Development Project (CRDP II). The project will involve a continuation of research to improve the efficiency and sustainability of livestock and crop production in the region, and will establish infrastructure and disseminate techniques that contribute to production maintenance objectives. 1.2 The Government began project preparation in October 1985 with the assistance of consultants, and finalized preparation in December 1986 (para 3.2). IDA preappraised the project in December 1987 and appraised in March 1988. B. Agriculture and Livestock in the Economy The Economy 1.3 Somalia is a poor country, with a per capita income of about US $ 170 (in 1987 prices), a serious foreign debt-problem, and a harsh physical environment that poses major challenges to economic growth. Its 5.7 million people (and an sdditional 800,000 refugees) occupy some 64 million hectares of land, and the population is growing at about 3.0 percent a year. The country is located on the strategically important Horn of Africa, and shares its borders with Djibouti and Ethiopia to the West, and Kenya to the South. Somalia has a 3,300 kilometer coastlini to the East and North. 1.4 Since the early 1980's, the Government bRs taken steps to relax controls on the economy. These steps include a shift from public to private ownership and management of property, adjustments in the exchange rate, liberalization of trade and the dismantl-i-'g of agricultural pricing and marketing controls. These steps have stimulated an increase in production, exports, and per capita GDP. GDP grew an estimated 5 percent a year between 1981 and 1986. 1.5 Despite these changes, the country continues to hava seriots macroeconomic problems. Between 1975 and 1985, export ear.aings did not cover more than half the value of imports. Trade deficits have been financed by foreign grants, official concessionary loans, and private transfers. Domestic savings have been negative. All of the Public Investment Program is supported by donor funds. The country also has serious external debt problems. Before June of 1987, the total debt was estimated at US$ 1.4 billion. Large debt service arrears have accumulated, and the current service obligation on this debt is about US$ 160 million a yeir. This obligation is equivalent to over 90 percent of prajected exports ar.d private transfers. Budget deficits are about 10 percent of GDP, and are financed partly by foreign loans and grants. During 1986/87 an adjustment program was put in place, supported by the IMF and IDA's Agricultural Sector Adjustment Program (Cr. 1711-SO). The Government's dec4sion in September 1987 to stop floating the exchange rate affected IMF and IDA support, and reduced the availability of foreign funis for production inputs. The Government subsequently imposed price controls at the wholesale and retail level, further restricting supplies. Recent discussions between the IMF and the Government suggest an agreement may soon be reac4ed that will allow the economic adjustment program to resume. A second agricultural adjustment program may be developed for the medium term. The short-term economic problems mentioned above do not affect the objectives of this project, which address the production constraints and long-term sustainability of the traditional livestock sector. Agriculture and Livestock 1.6 The agricultural sector provides around 58 percent of GDP in Somalia. Livestock, the largest subsector within agriculture, contributes around 35 percent of GDP and 80 percent of exports. 1/ Over the 15 years between 1970 and 1984, agricultural output grew by only 0.4 percent a year, and per capita food production declined by nearly 3 percent a year. During this period, the size of the national livLstock herd increased at about 1.4 percent a year, consistent with the possibilities of rangeland production systems. Growth in the agricultural sector has improved markedly in recent years. Between '978 and 1984 agricultural growth was 4.3 percent a year, with livestock averaging 4.4 percent a year. Exports of live animals earned about USS 100 million a year between 1980 and 1982. These earnings dropped to US$ 33 million in 1983 because of problems in the Saudi Arabian market, but since have recovered. Exports in 1986 were valued at US$ 62 million. Each year 1 to 1.5 million animals are exported; about 47 percent of these are sheep, another 47 percent are goats, and the remaining 6 percent are cattle and camels. Market prospects for small ruminants are good (para 2.33 - 2.35). 1.7 The climate is semiarid. The highest rainfall -- between 400 and 600 mm -- occurs in a small area in the northwent around Hargeisa and in a much larger area in the south between the Shebelli and Juba Rivers. The rainfall pattern is bimodal, consisting of the Gu (April-June) and the Dayr (October-December) seasons. The moisture produced is barely sufficient to sustain crop production, and droughts are common. Moderate draughts occur every 3 to 4 years, and major ones every 8 to 10 years. In this harsh environme-t, low input low output crop production takes place over about 1 million hectares of land. A large part of the country's exports of cereals 1/ World Bank, Somalia Agricultural Sector Surve-, Report No. 6131-SO of December 30, 1987. and bananas export come from the 50,000 to 100,000 hectares of irrigated land along the two main rivers. 1.8 The remaining 51 million hectares of the country is rangelands given over to pastoralist, nomadic livestock grazing. This is the traditional occupation of half of the Somali population, and the dominant economic activity in the sector and the economy. The national herd is estimated to include some 38 million animals: 16 million goats, 12 million sheep, 6 million camels and 4 million cattle. Pastoral livestock production is very dependant on climate and ecology. Rangelands are subject to long, cyclical periods of drought and regeneration. Herds are oriented towards milk production and making a rapid recovery after drought. Females dominate the herds, since males are sold off at maturity and only a minimum f number are kept for breeding purposes. Pastoralist families live off the production of milk; per capita consumption of milk is estimated at more than 200 liters per year. The normal diet of milk is supplemented by grain and, occasionally, meat. As the human population grows, each new family require3 a basic stock of animals in order to survive. During the growth cycle, overstocking and overgrazing occur, and range condition may suffer. After a drought, vegetation recovers more rapidly than the livestock population. The limits of the capacity of a range area to sustain animals is determined by the availability of fodder within walking distance of a water source at the en4 of the dry season. The rangelands of Somalia are generally considered to have reached the upper limits of their sustainable, long-term carrying capacity. 1.9 The short term development strategy for livestock set forth in IDA's recent Agriculture Sector Survey (para 1.6) has two primary objectives. One is to expand and diversify livestock marketing into new areas and new products. The other is to improve ran&e management and animal health in order to increase offtake and exports. Long term objectives of the strategy include: (i) establishing supplemental holding facilities to improve export quality and local meat and milk production; (ii) developing pastoral associations to limit degradation by managing grazing, water points and other communal resources; and (iii) introducing practices to limit the adverse effect of shifting cultivation and make it more complementary with livestock production. This project addresses the production and rangeland management aspects of the strategy. C. Government Institutions and Support Services 1.10 The Ministry of Livestock, Forestry and Range (MLFR) and its National Range Agency (NRA) regulate all aspects of range use, animal health, and wildlife and conservation activities in the country (para 4.1 - 4.2). Since 198C IDA and other donors have provided assistance to NRA through the Central Rangelands Development Project (CRDP I). Within HLFR, the Veterinary Services Department regulates the importation and distribution of drugs, and maintains a staff of veterinarians, assistants, and vaccinators in each of the country's 16 regions. The importation and distribution of non-injectable veterinary drugs by merchants (formerly a - 4 - Government-controlled monopoly) was sanctioned under the Agricultural Inputs Program (Credit 1612-SO) and the Agricultural Sector Adjustment Program (Credit 1711-SO), both financed by IDA. The licensing of private veterinarians and decontrol of injectable veterinary drugs will be addressed under a future agricultural sector adjustment project. 1.11 Government assistance for crop production is providec through the Ministry of Agriculture and related projects and agencies. Of key importance are the Central Agricultural Research Station and the Bonka Research Station which is supported by IDA (Credit 972-SO). The Central Agricultural Research Station conducts research on irrigated agriculture at Afgoi, and the Bonka Research experiments with rainfed crops in Baidoa. A national extension service is financed by IDA (Credit 1794-SO) and is active in the valley of the Shebelli, located in the southern portion of the project area. D. Donor Support for Livestock Development 1.12 The livestock sector has not received donor assistance commensurate with its importance to the Somali economy. This lack of support stems from the difficulty of improving on the traditional pastoral production system. The present system already makes efficient use of the very scarce production possibilities in a harsh and arid environment and marketing is relative..y efficient. Nonetheless, livestock has received some support recently. The Central Rangelands Project, Phase I (CRDP I) with a total project cost of US $ 46.2 million received support from IDA (Credit 906-SO for US$ 8 million), IFAD (SDR 7 million), USAID (US$ 15 million), WFP and GTZ. A Livestock Pealth Services Project for US $ 11.6 million received funds from IDA (Credit 1647-SO for US$ 4.3 million) and IFAD (US$ 6.3 million). A Livestock Marketing and Health Project for US$ 17 million was approved by USAlD in 1984, and addresses some of the main constraints to increased livestock exports. Over fifty percent of the funds are allocated to the construction of three quarantine stat.Lons and holding grounds in Kisimeyo, Mogadishu and Berbera. Funds are also prov'ded for studies on the possibilities of increasing livestock exports, and to alleviate bottlenecks n the provision of transport, credit and fodder production. The main inclusions of the study on livestock export markets are noted in paras 2.33 - 2.35. II. THE PROJECT AREA A. Agroecological Features and Populations 2.1 Project interventions and results are closely linked to climate, soils and vegetation, and many of the project activities are focri'.ed on land and natural resource management. In order for Government interventions in this area to be beneficial, a clear understanding is necessary of the way in which pa3toralists and their herds use this environment. The agroecological, human, and livestock resources of the Central Rangelands are described below, and the implications for the design of this project are indicated. Much of the information presented has been garnered through aerial reconnaissance and field surveys funded by CRDP I. The second phase project will take full advantage of the information obtained during the first phase. Location 2.2 The project area covers the three regions of Central Somilias Hiran, Galgudud, and Mudup. These regions encompass 149,000 square kilometers and extGnd :onme 800 km northeast of the Shebelli River Basin. The Ethiopian border and the rangeland areas of the Ogaden plateau are located to the West and the coast is located to the East. One fifth of the country and some of its best rangeland areas are included in the project area. Natural Resources 2.3 The Central Rangelands is a slightly inclined plain rising slowly but steadily from sea level northwest to 400 meters above sea level, along the Ethiopian border. The two major features of the plain are the Shebelli River Valley and a 300-500 meter high ridge and sand dune. The Shebelli River Valley runs north-south along the southern boundary of the region and is bordered by a low but abrupt limestone escarpment. The ridge and sand dune run parallel to the coast about 30 km inland, extending about 350 km from the southern border of the region. The ridge has blocked the otherwise dominant southeastward drainage of surface water and has forced the Shebelli liver to run parallel to the coast in the south. 2.4 The climate of the area is semiarid. Rainfall occurs during two seasons (para 1.7) and varies between 150 mm a year in the north and nort!o-- and 300 m a year in the south and southwest. Temperatures range from 20 to -i- 4aQrees Centigrade. The evaporation rute is more than 2 meters a year, far exceeding precipitation. 2.5 Most of the soils are sandy and reddish yellow, with an alkaline to neutral pH. Soil depth is related to parent material: shallow soils (less than a meter deep) are found over limestones and gypsum in the central and northern portions of the area. Soils up to 2 meters deep are found overlying limestones. Soils generally are deep everywhere else, including the northwestern slopes of the coastal ridge. Natural fertility is low, and cropping cannot be supported for more than two or three years without additional nutrients. Long fallow periods are required to restore fertility. The soils are composed mainly of rounded particles of quartz and limestone sand. Their composition and their location in a zone of strong monsoon winds make them unstable when binding surface vegetation is removed, or when the algal/silt crust is broken. Deeper alluvial silts and clays occur in the Shebelli valley, along the southern and southwestern edge of the region. These provide better possibilities for cultivation. The 20 to 30 km-wide coastal strip offers fine white sands overlying coastal limestones east of the coastal fault. Although fairly stabilized, the sands have contributed to the formation of active sarn dunes and partially stabilized sheets of sand along the slopes of the coastal ridge. -6- Erosion 2.6 Wind is the principal erosive force in the region. All of the Central Rangelands, and particularly the 20 km wide coastal strip, is subject to strong monsoon winds during much of the year. The strongest winds blow from the southwest betwen June and Octuber. Between November and March steady but softer winds blow from the northeast. Topsoils of fine, unaggregated sands are easily moved by the winds. The extensive bare areas and stunted plants of the coastal strip are better described as aspects of a natural wind desert than as the results of low rainfall or overgrazing by livestock. Wind speeds are highest during the dry season, reaching 30 km/hour. Wind speeds increase towards the north, as annual rainfall decreases. This phenomenon produces a gradient with distinct characteristics as one moves from the southeast to the northwest of the project area. Generally, aridity increases, and vegetation cover, vegetation height and cropping activities decrease. 2.7 The Central Rangelands contain both major and minor sand dunes. The major dunes are about 10 km wide and cover about 3,000 square kilometers within an area located 40 to 80 km from the coast starting in Ceel Dhere and running nearly 300 km northeast. They are estimated to have a northerly movement of 20 meters a year. These large dunes are major geomorphological formations, and little can be done to influence their size or movement. Minor dunes are located in the neighborhood of villages and boreholes. These have been caused primarily by the shifting cultivation practices in loose sandy soils, and the presence of constant, intensive grazing. The minor dunes are subject to management, and many have been successfully stabilized and covered with vegetation in the past. These initiatives will be continued under the second phase. 2.8 Water erosion is only important in areas with relatively greater slope and more silt, where surfaces can be easily compacted. Spectacular gully systems can be seen on either side of the coastal ridge, some 20 to 30 km inland from the coast in the Haradhere and Hobbyo districts. These gullies appear fairly stable, however, and do not seem to pose a major threat to land use. Water 2.9 Surface vater supplies are scarce. The Shebelli river is reduced to a trickle in the dry season (hagai) between January and April, and has limited use for irrigation in the project area, because of its salinity and the poor quality of the soils. Apart from ephemeral streams which run for a few hours after rainfall, the principal source of surface water is natural or manmade depressions which collect runoff. However, high evaporation and infiltration rates mean that these depressions are only useful for a few months at a time. The standard project dugout holds between 2,500 and 3,000 cubic meters of water when full. The 34 dugouts constructed under CRDP I have been designed to dry out before the end of the dry season, in order to avoid the settlement and overuse patterns associated with permanent water sources (para 4.18). Surface water runoff is also channelled into large masonry-lined tanks that hold about 400 cubic meters of water capacity. These privately owned 'burkaads' are located near villages and represent - 7- important sources of water for human consumption. Their construction and operation is self-financed, and water from them is sold to the population. 2.10 The Central Rangelands is relatively well off with respect to ground water sources. Few locations are more than 20 km from permantnt water pointes shallow wells or boreholes. Under a recen~. program funded by the Saudi Arabian Programme for Rural Water in Somalia, 21 boreholes were drilled in villages across the Central Rangelands, in some cases duplicating existing boreholes. Most of the drilling was successful, as they tapped into aquifers which had already been identified. Under CRDP I, attempts were made to locate new boreholes in areas where access was difficult. Only 8 of the 22 wells drilled under CRDP I were successful, and costs per we" were about US$ 200,000 for each attempt. The well drilling program has een limited to 5 borehole. during the second phase project in order to minimize the degradation associated with permanent water points, but still provide access to large underutilized areas (para 3.13). 2.11 There are about 75 shallow hand-dug wells which also are an important source of permanent water. These wells are often dug 30 meters deep through limestone. Water from them is dravn using hand-lifted buckets arnd skins, making these wells more reliable than the diesel-powered boreholes. Many wells are located along the coast, and make use of a layer of potable water available before saline water is reached. Efforts to rehabilitat:~ well heads and animal watering troughs under Phase I have been well received and vould be continued under Phase II (para 3.13). Human Population and Project Beneficiaries 2.12 The human population in these three regions is estimated at 800,000 and is growing at about 3.0 percent a year, a rate which threatens to outstrip the productive resources of the region. 2! Most of the population is rural and nomadic. Health and sanitation facilities are poor. Infant mortality is estimated at 15 percent, and adult life expectancy at 46 years. In addition, a number of refugees have been settled in Hiran along the Shebelli in recent years. This additional population increases the pressure on fuelwood availability and results in increased cultivation of unsuitable soils. The main refugee camps are located at Jalalaxi (96,900 persons) and Beletwayne (124,000 persons). 2/ World Bank, Somalia - Population, Health and Nutrition Sector Review, Report No. 5468-SO, September 5, 1985. Table 2.1: Human Population in the Project Area (1987) Urban Rural Nomadic Total Hiran 50 90 124 263 Galgudud 78 128 120 326 Mudug 52 49 112 213 Central Rangelands 180 266 356 802 Somalia 900 2000 1820 5700 Source: Bank Mission 2.13 The population of the project area depends on livestock husbandry and cropping activities for subsistence. Of the inhabitants some 10,000 farm families and 1,500 pastoral families are expected to benefit directly from targeted project activities. All of the area population would benefit from improved roads, additional water points, and reduced erosion and degradation (para 6.1). Livestock Population 2.14 The main economic activity in the region is livestock production, which makes use of opportunistic transhumant strategies to raise goats, sheep, camels and cattle on the rangelands. The region supports about 11 m'.llion head of livestock, as described below. Table 2.2: Livestock Population in the Project Area Cattle Sheep Goats Camels Total Hiran 208 360 1,360 364 2,292 Galgudud 129 878 3,209 291 4,507 Mudug 80 1,171 2,613 227 4,091 Central Range 417 2,409 7,182 882 10,890 Somalia 3,775 5,500 16,700 11,700 37,675 Source: Somalia Agricultural Sector Survey 2.15 The overall stocking rate is estimated at one Tropical Livestock Unit (TLU) per eleven hectares. 3/ Project experts believe the maximum sustainable carrying capacity has been reached. Herd expansion is limited by the availability of fodder and water during the dry season, and financial and labor constraints. The distribution of livestock varies across regions and with the season, depending on the availability of fodder. Although data 3/ One Tropical Livestock Unit is equivalent to one 250 kg animal. One camel equals 1.2 TLU, one cow, 0.8 TLU, and a sheep or goat, 0.1 TLU - 9 - on the livestock population is unreliable, there appears to have been little change in the numbers of cattle, camels, and goats in the region over the paat ten years. However, the numbers of sheep appear to have increased significantly, reflecting their ability to make the be3t use of crop residues and byproducts. This trend is expected to continue as cultivation increases in importance. Camels are the most migratory of domestic livestock and, together with goats, predominate in the areas where only low browse fodder is available and water is scarce. The density of cattle is uniformly low throughout the area, except in the alluvial soils of the Shebelli Valley, where there are concentrations of cattle during the wet season. Sheep are prominent in the coastal plains and in the agricultural areas of the southeast. There appears to be a large influx of sheep and goats into the project area during the wet season. 2.16 Herds are structured to maximize milk production and to obtain the maximum regeneration capacity after drought. They look very much like dairy herds. Production coefficients are low and mortality is high. The composition of the herds is primarily female, as Table 2.3 shows. Table 2.3t Characteristics of Sheep and Goat Flocks and Herds X of Sheep Flock Z of Goat Herd Females: Under 1 yr 26 Z 24 Z Over 1 Yr 52 X 62 Z Males: Under 1 yr 15 Z 7 Z Over 1 yr 7 Z 7 Z Total 100 Z 100 2 Agropastoral Rangelands Average Flock/Herd Size 85 256 Crude Death (<l) 22.5 2 22.5 Z Crude Death (>1) 14 2 14 Z Adult Female Fertility Rate 80 2 94 Z Average Lambing/Kidding Int. 10.5 months 11.5 months Age First Lambing/Kidding 28.7 months 28.7 months Source: GTZ Veterinary Team 2.17 Since females are milked, weaning weights for kids and lambs are extremely low: about 8 to 10 kg at 150 days. Only 25 percent of these animals ever appear to reach export weights of 25 to 35 kg liveweight. Weight gains are limited by the availability of feed; the main bottleneck occurs at the end of the dry season. The project addresses this constraint by including measures to improve nutrition without increasing carrying capacity. The measures consist of (i) obtaining access to underutilized forage through better distribution of temporary water points (para 5.4); and - 10 - (ii) increasing the production of crop residues and fodder crops in agropastoral areas (para 5.3). 2.18 Camels are excellent dairy animals and make best use of the browse available in the Central Rangelands at long distances from water. Daily milk yields of 6-10 liters per milking camel have been recorded in the wet season, and 2 liters per day have been recorded in the dry season. Camels are usually milked, have lactation periods of 9 to 18 months, and yield 1,000 to 1,500 liters per lactation. Goats initially produce about 200 ml of milk per day; their production declines to about 60 ml per day at the end of the 150 day lactation. Yields of sheep milk would resemble those of goats, but sheep are not usually milked and are kept only for meat production. Milk produced by cattle for human consumption is about 2 to 3 kg per cow per day, over a lactation period of 150 to 200 days. Animal Health 2.19 Experience under the GTZ Animal health component indicates that herd productivity can be improved through the use of simple treatments to reduce the parasite burden and improve nutrition. The 14 percent adult mortality rate appears high and will be further investigated under the project. Serological surveys on sheep and goat herds have shown that the incidence of brucellosis and contagious caprine pleuropneumonia is below 1 percent, which is surprising. Surveys for theileriosis, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis showed a prevalence of less than 1 percent for all three combined. Surveys of camels showed that 50 percent had antibodies to Trypanosoma evansi, 7 percent had active infections, and 2 percent showed evidence of exposure to brucellosis. 2.20 There is little information on the incidence of other diseases affecting livestock in Eastern Africa: rinderpest, small ruminant pest, foot and mouth disease, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia. These diseases will have to be addressed during the project. However, during Phase I the GTZ team identified three cases in which veterinary treatment is profitable, and livestock owners are eager to pursue these. First, there is a major internal parasite problem in young sheep and goats during the early wet season. Liveweight gains during the wet season have been enhanced by strategic drenching with anthelmintics at the start of the rains and the use of minerals to improve nutrition. Second, trypanosomiasis and other blood parasites, a serious problem in camels and cattle along the Shebelli River, can be treated and controlled with drugs and acaricides. Third, and of less economic importance, antibiotic treatment has been successfully employed on small ruminants afflicted with contagious caprine pleuropneumonia. These three animal treatments will form the core of the animal health care component under the project (paras 3.11-3.12, 5.2). B. Land Tenure and Land Use Land Tenure 2.21 Although rangeland was traditionally considered commonly-owned public land, once enclosed it belonged to the person who built the fence. - 11 - Land tenure regulations in Somalia now are governed by the Agricultural Land Law No. 73 of 1975, and subsequent decrees, notably Law 23 of 1976. Under this law the State owns and controls all land, and the distribution and management of land is the responsibility of the Land and Water Resources Department within the Ministry of Agriculture. Access rights are provided by variable term leases which differ in length and degree of restrictiveness depending on whether the lessee is an individual, family, or corporate body -- public or private. Individuals and families can use the land on the basis of renewable 50 year leases. Lease rights are inheritable by the next of kin. A ceiling of 60 hectares is placed on rainfed holdings for individuals and families. Holdings by corporations, public agencies, and private organizations are not subject to size limitations. All land must be developed within two years, or the lease can be revoked by Government and the land repossessed. The leaseholder may not rent, sell, or subdivide the land without forfeiting the lease. The Ministry of Agriculture does not register leases or monitor land tenure claims in the Central Rangelands; this task has devolved on local government, whose administrative capabilities in this area are weak. Enclosures have been increasing rapidly, and it is not clear whether enclosures for private use in the rangelands still are legally sanctioned. This question will be studied before Phase II of the project begins (para 3.21). Land Use 2.22 Surveys conducted during CRDP I show that livestock are grazed as much as possible within traditional use areas known as degaans". These areas provide: (i) a source of permanent water around which dry season grazing is based; (ii) adequate fodder, especially in the dry season, for the animals belonging to the family groupings that graze together; and (iii) kinship ties. Somali pastoralists remain within their Idegaans' as long as possible. In the wetter areas, where year-round water and fodder are available, herds follow fairly distinct seasonal grazing patterns within the Idegaan", unless drought (or malfunction at a borehole) forces a change. In the drier areas towards the North and West, livestock movements are more varied and movement outside Idegaan' bcamdaries takes place more often. In the existing pastoral system, rangelands are rested only when they are far frum water, or when access is prevented due to Government decree or outbreak of biting flies. The 'degaan' has become the base planning unit under Phase II of the project (para 4.11). 2.23 Several important trends in range use were identified during CRDP I which have important consequences for CRDP II and the future management of the region. First, the orientation of coastal pastoralists is becoming increasingly commercial. These individuals are maintaining ever larger sheep herds for the production of export animals, in addition to goats and camels for the normal milk, meat and transport requirements for subsistence. Second, the number of livestock owners who also grow crops to complpment their and their animals' diets is increasing. Third, there is a related increase in the enclosure of areas of rangeland for private use. Fourth, the free ranging of livestock in some areas is increasing due to the removal of predators. As a result, there is less control over animal feeding patterns, and herding costs have been reduced. Fifth, the recruitment of young pastoralists into the traditional system appears to be declining. - 12 - Research during the project would verify these trends (para 3.6) and develop appropriate responses. Agropastoralism 2.24 Shifting cultivation of annual grains and pulses by pastoralist families in the better rainfall and soil quality areas in the southeast quadrant of the region has existed for a long time, and appears to be increasing. The CRDP I resource survey in 1979 identified about 370,000 ha of cropped land in the project area. Cropping is more intensive around permanent water sources. A CRDP I study on agropastoralism in Nooleye a village in the Ceel Dhere District in the southeast revealed interesting features of cultivation. 4/ For one, cultivation in Ceel Dhere has increased as the number of permanent wat'-r points has increased. second, cultivation takes place within a larger enclosure. The area cuILivated in any season averages 1.5 hectares, within a subdivision of the larger 12 hectare enclosure. The subdivision under cultivation is shifted around within the larger enclosure every two to three years to take advantage of virgin land. The remainder of the enclosure is used for livestock grazing. Third, a pastoralist may have more than one enclosure, to guarantee virgin land and fodder during the dry season. Fourth, a cowpea-sorghum rotation is the most common, yielding 400 to 600 kg/hectare. Finally, the average livestock holdings by agropastoralists include 135 animals; about 60 percent of these are goats, 25 percent are sheep, and the remainder are cattle and camels. Surveys conducted under the animal health activities indicate that the livestock in agropastoral areas have higher nutritional levels than pure rangeland animals. 2.25 Inappropriate cultivation can have serious degrading effects on rangelands. First, it increases the supply of low quality forage plant species in the early stages of succession following farm abandonment. Second, it denudes the fragile and sandy soils, exposing them to wind erosion. The effect of cultivation in increasing the incidence of sand dunes can be seen in Ceel Dhere district. Here the increase in the availability of permanent water has supported the sedentarization of much of the population increased agropastoralism. Four simple techniques have been developed under CRDP I to minimize these negative effects. One is strip cropping, orienting the strips across the direction of the prevailing winds. Another is fodder production on the non-cultivated strips or around the cultivated areas. For this multipurpose trees and shrubs or perennial grasses such as buffel grass are used. A third technique involves the use of live fences, to diminish the need for repair and cutt4ng of surrounding vegetation. A fourth involves the introduction of higher yield crops and fertility enhancing rotations; these reduce the need to clear additional areas for cropping. All four efforts will be continued under the project (para 4.15). 4/ *Agropastoralism and Desertification in Ceel Dhere District, Central Somalia. Preliminary Investigation and Trial Results', R. Holt, December 1985. - 13 - Rangeland Production Systems 2.26 Seven different production systems have been identified in the Central Rangelands during phase I (see Table 2.4). The Coastal Plains system has a deficit in the supply of energy and protein for human consumption during both wet and dry seasons. The Agropastoral Sands and the Agropastoral Clays are characterized by relatively high levels of residual forage at the end of the wet season. This leftover forage probably is the result of the large human and moderate livestock populations. The resulting deficits in human calorie and protein requirements may be overcome thrcugh cropping or the purchase of grains. The Western Shebelli and the Interior Shrubland systems suffer from energy deficiency in the dry seasons. The low rainfall pastoral production system characteristic of the Interior Dwarf Shrub/Grassland and the Northern Plateau systems has a seasonal imbalance between the demand and the supply of forage. Very little forage remains unutilized at the end of the wet season and this lack of reserve could lead to serious degradation and lower productivity over the long term. Pressure on the forage could be reduced by the strategic location of temporary water points. Table 2.4: Characteristics of Central Rangelands Production Systems a/ Agro- Agro- West- Inte- Nor- Pas- Past- Tern Inte- rior thern Coastal toral toral She- rior Dwarf Pla- Plains Sand Clay belli Shrub Shrub teau Forage Prod'n: high b/ high high high mid low c/ low Livestock Bio- mass in wet: low d/ mid mid high e/ low high v.high Livestock Bio- mass(dry/wet): 60Z 70Z 140Z 60Z 70Z 1OZ 3Z Unused Forage in wet: high f/ high high mid high v.low g/ de'icit Source: CRDP I, D. Herlocker. a/see Annex 8, Document B.1; b/ 72 t/km2; c/ 35 t/km2; d/ 2.1 t/km2; e/6.2 t/km2; f/ 640 kg/ha; z/ 56 kg/ha. 2.27 Seven interventions aimed at remedying the imbalance between forage availability and livestock were developed during CRDP I. These interventions would be continued under Phase II of the project and would include: (i) increasing the availability of water in unwatered areas using boreholes; (ii) using dugouts and shallow wells to better distribute grazing; (iii) increasing forage production in agropastoral areas; (iv) increasing the efficiency of forage use by deworming and other simple veterinary measures; (v) selecting high water table sites to increase dry season forage production; and (vi) upgrading poor condition areas using management reserves. Under CRDP I seven controlled grazing reserves were established: two in Hobbyo, two in Ceel Dhere (en the coastal plain) and three in Bulo Burti (in the shrubland). Results have been positive, although not spectacular. The low rainfall limits vegetative response and - 14 - delays the acceptance of the concepts by pastoralists. Pasture rehabilitation through pitting is under trial in Ceel Bur. Wildlife and Conservation 2.28 Somalia is home to a diverse range of flora and fauna commonly found in arid lands. There is a wide variety of Acacia and Commniphora speciest over 90 species have been recorded, including C myrrh. In addition there is the less common frankincense tree Boswellia, the yeheb plant (cerdeauxia edulis) and terminalia. Some of these species are under severe pressure due to construction use and charcoal production. Somalia has been home to the large mAmmals found elsewhere in Eastern Africa: elephant, zebra, giraffe, lion, rhino, hippo, and antelope. While these animals can be found in Somalia, only Speke's gazelle, and various types of dik dik, hyena, and jackal are now common. Some of the very rare species found only in Somalia are threatened with extinction. These include Somali wild ass, dibitag, Soemmerring's gazelle, Pelzen's gazelle, and Beira oryx. 2.29 Conservation activities are guided by Law No. 15 on Fauna and Forest Conservation. This law was put into effect on January 25, 1969, and amended on August 31, 1970. The law covers forest conservation, grazing and mining, as well as the establishment and control of protected areas. Its purpose is to protect natural resources from degradation by regulating their management. The areas defined in the original legislation include Game Reserves, Controlled Areas, Partial Game Reserves, and Forest Reserves. New, more comprehensive legislation covering all aspects of wildlife management is needed since the present legislation is obsolete and hard to enforce. 5/ The law creates four game reserves, three controlled areas and four partial game reserves. The Bush tash Game Reserve in the Southern corner of the country on the border with Kenya is the only reserve where antipoaching laws are enforced. 2.30 The survival of wildlife in Somalia is endangered by several factors. One is inadequate enforcement of protection legislation. Another is the lack of wildlife management infrastructure and professionally trained staff. A third factor is the increased enclosure of public land and lack of centralized land use planning. A fourth factor is the large number of firearms owned privately. Fifth, drought and famine cause livestock owners to fall back on wildlife for food. Finally, the boom in livestock prices makes it more worthwhile to sell livestock rather than consume it. The Government places high priority on preserving its natural heritage and is disturbed by the alarming decline in the wildlife populations. Steps to strengthen conservation will be taken under CRDP II (para 3.15). 5/ 'Directory of Afrotropical Protected Areas', IUCN, March 1987 - 15 - C. Infrastructure 2.31 Within the project area the largest towns are Jalalaxi, Bulo Burti and Beletwayne, located along the Shebelli River Valley, and Dusa Mareb and Galcaio located along the Ethiopian border. These towns are served by a surfaced road. Access to the interior bushland is poor however, and is undertaken via geological lines cut by the oil companies during exploration. These lines have become rough sand or rock tracks which are impassable in the short rain} seasons and receive no maintenance. Airstrips are available at Beletwayne, Galcaio, Hobbyo and Bulo Burti. Use is sometimes restricted for military teasons. Only th. Hobbyo strip provides access to the interior of the region. More air strips are needed to improve transport and communications; these will be constructed under the project (para 3.13). Under CRDP I ten NRA compounds were built at the district headquarters which provide office and living facilities for project staff. Each compound has a radio which provides the only regular communication with Mogadishu. There are telegraph and telephone lines along the main road around the southern and western perimeter of the area. 2.32 The three regional towns have a post office, police station, and a branch of the Commercial and Savings Bank of Somalia. Beletwayne, Dusa Mar-b, and Galcaio have large Army outposts. A small port located at Hobbyo is used for exporting small quantities of livestock during the few months when weather conditions are favorable. D. Marketing 2.33 Livestock is Somalia's most important export. Small ruminants dominat't the trade, accounting for 90 percent of animal exports in 1980- 1986. 6/ The outlook for expanding small ruminant exports is good, if the constraints noted in para 2.34 are lifted. Annual recorded shipments have fluctuated dramatically -- by about 35 percent around an average of 1.3 million animals. Saudi Arabia is still the most important market for Somali livestock exports, absorbing 95 percent of small ruminant shipments despite a recent ban on cattle imports. Other markets include Egypt, Kenya and the Yemen Arab Republic. Somalia's main competitors in the Arab markets are Australia, Turkey, Sudan, New Zealand, and the Common Market. 2.34 Restrictive Government policies represent a major constraint to profitable export operations. Too many exactions are placed on the export trade, and the business environment is unstable. At the country level, several measures would improve the export environment. These include: (i) permitting livestock export earnings to be converted at the free market exchange rate; (ii) removing the movement taxes on animals destined for export; (iii) dissolving the government monopoly on shipping and insurance; 6/ *International Market for Somali Livestock', RONCO Consulting Corporation, November 1987 sUSAID Contract). - 16 - and (iv) permitting export sales on an FOB basis. Measures at the trader and producer level would reduce marketing costs, and improve the quality of the animals exported. Some of these measures include: (i) giving priority to livestock traders in allocation of fuel and transport requirements; (ii) activating telex and telephone lines in Berbera, Burao, and Hargeisa; (iii) putting in place holding grounds and fodder farms at aggregation and export points; (iv) improving health standards on export animals through vaccination and quarantine programs, and pastoral animal health schemes; (v) providing credit to support the feeding and holding operations; and (vi) improving the road network. The USAID sutpported Livestock Marketing and Health project addresses some of these points (para 1.12). Others will be improved as the infrastructure in the country is rehabilitated, and the foreign exchange regime stabilizes under donor supported adjustment programs. 2.35 The project area includes a large proportion of the small ruminant exports -- about 23 percent of sheep exports and 42 percent of goat exports. The region also contributes 10 to 20 percent of the exports of camels and cattle. The traditional marketing system within the project area is well developed and responds quickly to market signals. Animals are sold for cash to the larger producers, and for a mixture of cash and goods as producers get closer to subsistence levels. Prices vary according to animal quality. Surveys of herd structure by GTZ show that all available males, and even some females, are sold when ready. Offtake appears to be the maximum possible for subsistence producers. Larger pastoralists are able to hold their animals and play the market more. Cattle and camels are usually trekked to market. Sheep and goats are either trekked or trucked to their destination, depending on the availabilitd of feed to support a long march and the timing obligations of the exporting merchant. Ceel Bur, Dhusa Mareb and Galcaio are the major animal trading centers. Ceel Bur is located in the geographical center of the area; Dhusa Mareb and Galcaio are on the main road north to Berbera. E. Institutions Local Government 2.36 The three regions of Hiran, Galgudud and Mudug are headed by a Governor appointed by the President. They are divided into thirteen districts, each administered jointly by District Commissioners and Party Secretaries. In addition, there are local development committees with appointed and elected officials who assist in government. At the village level the committees have influence within five kilometers of the settlement. Water Development Authority (WDA) 2.37 This organization is charged with maintaining drinking water facilities, including boreholes. Most boreholes use pumps powered by diesel engines. Village engine operators aro trained by the VDA. Fees collected for water use pay for fuel, lubricants and the operator's salary. WDA is supposed to provide periodic maintenance. However, the remoteness of - 17 - boreholes and organizational inefficiencies make the maintenance service less than adequate. The lack of fuel and spares causes pumps to fail. Because the continuous operation of boreholes in the project area is crucial to human and livestock survival, Phase II of the project will provide for regular maintenance services (para 3.13). National Range Agency 2.38 This agency maintains a presence at each level of local government down to the district, and has responsibility for implementing the Range Law (paras 4.1-4.2). Range and Livestock Associations (RLAs) 2.39 RLAs were organized under CRDP I to represent the interests of those families who utilize a given 'degaan'. These families use the same permanent water points and dry season grazing areas, have kinship relations, and were judged an appropriate unit on which to build a more formalized management structure. The RLAs were designed as the 'pastoralist organization" with which the Government and the project could interact in testing range management techniques (reserves) and in designing and locating infrastructure (boreholes and dugouts). The governing committees included the local government and party authorities, religious leaders, and elders. Membership in an RLA is de facto and includes all those who use a given "degaan". There are between 6 and 13 udegaaDsW per district, and each covers from 1,000 to 3,000 square kilometers. 2.40 The establishment of these organizations has been slow due to the time needed to contact the members of the 'degaan' and obtain their acceptance of the idea. Some 14 RLAs have been established, 10 of them since 1987. The two in Hobbyo and the two in Ceel Dhere have been the most successful. Each of these has managed rest-rotational grazing reserves on the coastal plain. RLAs also have served as the basis for the creation and training of Nomadic Animal Health Assistants (NAHAs). The use of RLAs will be continued and expanded under Phase II of the project (para 3.8). However, the formation p:ocedures and structure of the RLAs will be adjusted according to the recommendations of the study being funded by USAID. Nomadic Animal Health Assistants 2.41 Under the CRDP veterinary component supported by GTZ, NAHAs have been placed at the degaan' level. Through these individuals, the project has sold imple drugs and provided minimal prescriptive advice to pastoralists. NAHAs are chosen from within an RLA, and receive a ten day course in the identification and treatment of local livestock diseases. Drugs and medicines appropriate to the region are then sold to participating RLAs by the MLFR. These drugs are later retailed to pastoralists, who purchase them on the recommendation and under the supervision of the NAHA. The RLA pays the NAHA's salary, either in cash or in kind. GTZ has financed a rotating fund to finance drug imports. Some 55 NAHAs are active in three districts. This successful program will be expanded under the Pnase II of the project (para 3.11). - 18 - F. Results and Lessons Learned from Phase I 2.42 CRDP I was approved by IDA in 1979 (Cr 906-SO). Its objective was to consolidate and improve range and livestock production, ir rease pastoralist income, and foster gradual concentrations of pastoral communities in the Central Rangelands. Within a total cost of US$ 46.3 million, the US$ 8 million IDA portion and the USS 9 million IFAD contribution were used for civil works, vehicles, and technical assistance in project management and informal training. The USAID contribution of US$ 15 million financed the technical assistance and vehicles for the range management, soil and water conservation, formal education and livestock development activities. Food provided by WFP supp.rted work on shelter belts and sand dune stabilization. GTZ funded the animal health component. A Project Completion report for CRDP I was finalized August 16, 1988. 2.43 The project got off to a slow start. Activities funded by the different financiers started at different times, and delays caused inefficiency and frustration. GTZ replaced ODA in funding the animal health component. Severe shortages of fuel and local funding reduced the effectiveness of staff and scaled down accomplishments in the field. The original desigr, was overly optimistic in what would be accomplished and in estimating the returns from range and water management. However, the project has been successful on several counts. It has helped to establish an organization capable of gathering and analyzing range and livestock related information, and to identify and intervene successfully in areas of key interest to pastoralists: animal health services, water point construction, and sand dune stabilization. Community level organizations have been put in place, and management techniques that will help to sustain rangeland productivity have been tested. The observations presented throughout this chapter are the result of Phase I efforts. Phase II will take advantage of the institutional base to further the investigative work and to disseminate worthwhile interventions. Key aspects of Phase I not yet touched on in Chapter II are described below. Range Management 2.44 Establishing management reserves was an important target of Phase I. These reserves were to cover 30 percent of the project area, or 50,000 square kilometers. Through them 70 percent of the production benefits were to be realized from the returns to rest rotational grazing. These benefits have not been achieved for three reasons. First, pastoralists have been reluctant to accept the idea of grazing reserves. Second, there has not been any pastoralist organization to manage these reserves, or indeed, any project initiatives. Third, there is no evidence of returns to rest rotational grazing in the bush and scrub which covers most of the reg'on. As these problems became clear, activities were restricted to three priority districts: Bulo Burti, Ceel Dhere and Hobbyo. A small but successful start was made in establishing pastoralist organizations and associated rest- rotation grazing reserves on the coastal plain (para 2.40). The reserves on the coastal plain have shown slight imprnvements in vegetation quality and production as a resul; of management. Other reserves have been initiated to provide relief at the height of drought, or to manage and revitalize - 19 - evergreen dry season fodder species such as yeheb (cordeauwia edulis). Range field surveys covering 55,000 square km have been completed. These include range condition classification, the mapping and description of 49 range sites, and the collection and identification of some 3,000 plant specimens. Nine reservee w#hich cover 3,800 kilometers have been establishe'. in the three priority districts. Pastoralists now acknowledge that reserves can be beneficial and are willing to engage in range management practices proposed under the project. Formal Education in Range M..aagement 2.45 Under CRDP I, a Department of Botany and Range Management was established at the Somali National University with the assistance of four expatriate professors. This Department, located within the Faculty of Agriculture, provides two years of specialized formal training after a first two years of general agriculture. The degree offered is a Bachelor of Science. So far 26 students have graduated since courses were first offered in 1984. Graduates have been hired by the university and the NRA. Five graduates are receiving further training in the United States and will return to take up teaching positions in 1988. The project will continue to support this activity until the university is able to continue it unaided (para 3.17). Midterm Review 2.46 The implementation of Phase I became an important learning process for the Government and for donors. Many useful interventions were identified and tested. Adjustments to the institutional aspects of the original project were consolidated at the multi-donor Midterm Review of March 1984. There five important decisions were taken. First, project activities were reduced to only three of the thirteen districts (para 2.43). Second, CRDP I was established as a separate operational entity within the NRA having its own project manager. Third, biannual Steering Committee meetings were set up to monitor project implementation. Members of the Committee included donors and Government officials. Fourth, a Field Manager was appointed and given responsibility for overseeing fuel and vehicle allocations and for improving communications between Mogadishu and district offices. Fifth, it was decided that greater attention should be given to the issues raised by the presence of agropastoralism in the priority districts (para 2.24). The institutional changes were successful in making the project more independent from NRA's other activities and more focussed on the Central Rangelands. 2.47 Valuable lessons also were learned on implementation. First, regular supplies of fuel, vehiclee, and spares were recognized as an essential precondition to all other activities. Second, infrastructure development and other modifications affecting pastoralists' lives should be preceded by a thorough investigation of the consequences of these changes on the local environment. Agreement on the nature of the proposed interventions should be reached with the local inhabitants before the intervention is implemented. Third, the project can only be effective if it operates as a separate entity within NRA or MLFR. Fourth, RLAs should play a key role in guiding project activities in the rangelands. These lessons - 20 - have been incorporated in the design of Phase 'I. A Project Completion Report on Phase I is being prepared. Other Donor Involvement 2.48 Support for Phase I of the project is coming to an end. The IDA Credit 906-SO closed on December 31, 1987. USAID's financial contribution under its current project will terminate in mid-1989. USAID is not able to support Phase II as its funds are fully committed to other endeavours. A USAID review of project implementation in May 1987 concluded that the project was close to meeting its targets but that activities had been severely hampered by the failure of the Government to provide a dependable supply of fuel. 7/ The Federal Republic of Germany has been supporting the veterinary component of the project through GTZ since 1983. After conducting a detailed review in 1987, Germany has agreed to continue to support this component until the end of 1990. GTZ representatives satisfied with progress under the component, and are very likely to extend their support beyond 1990 if implementation is successful and if IDA and ADF also remain committed to the project. The commitment of the WFP will terminate in 1989, but WFP representatives indicate that they will probably extend their support for this project into its second phase. Coordination of donor contributions in support of this project improved substantially after the Mid Term Review. The continuation of the Project Steering Committee (para 4.6) and the collaboration of all donors in the design and appraisal of Phase II should further enhance cooperation. III. THE PROJECT A. Project Rationale 3.1 The Central Rangelands are vital to the maintenance and increase of livestock exports which form the backbone of the Somali economy. Important advances in understanding range use and in maintaining und increasing productivity have been made in the first phase of the project. A second phase is considered justified because of; (i) the importance of rangelands for the economy; (ii) the need to minimize the negative Cffects of increased population pressure and cultivation; (iii) the need to take advantage of productivity increasing techniques; and (iv) the opportunity to use an increasingly effective range agency. This project will serve an important testing and pilot function. Findings in this project are potentially applicable in much of Somalia. The dynamics of range management, operation of agroecological monitoring systems, delivery of low- cost animal health services, and subsistence dryland farming techniques, all have application elsewhere in the country. IDA's involvement in this project in collaboration with ADF, GTZ and other donors provide the opportunity to bring together a successful effort in rangeland develpment. 7/ Interim Evaluation of Somalia Central Rangelands Project, Consortium for International Development, June 1987. - 21 - 3.2 breparation for the second phase of the project began in October 1985 with at. IDA-funded consultant report. This report was completed in February 1986, and served to highlight new perceptions of rangeland use in the project area. The report lays the foundation for the approach adopted in the Phase II. Further work by a Project Preparation Committee resulted in a Project Preparation Report in December 1986. A formal request of IDA for financing of the second phase was signed by the Minister of State for National Planning on May 30, 1987. This letter reaffirmed the high priority which the Goverranent places on investment in the rangelands. An IDA preappraisal mission reviewed this proposal in December 1987, and an appraisal mission was fielded in March 1988. B. Objectives and Description 3.3 The second phase of the project is designed to maintain and improve the long term productivity of the Central Rangelands and the living standards of pastoralists. This objective will be pursued by minimizing the degradation of vegetation, improving on the understanding of rangeland production systems, and increasing the productive efficiency of livestock in the region. 3.4 Constraints encountered in traditional pastoral production systems will be addressed through research efforts and specific interventions. The research will focus on improving the efficiency and sustainability of livestock and crop production in the region. Interventions will include setting up infrastructure and disseminating techniques that contribute to production maintenance. 3.5 The total cost of the six year project is estimated to be US$ 33.3 million. The project includes the following components (costs include contingencies): (i) Systems Investigation and Monitoring (US$ 4.3 million) to study production systems, formulate range management plans, and monitor agroecological indicators; (ii) Extension (US$ 4.8 million) to disseminate improved technology, organize RLAs to manage project infrastructure, and support village development initiatives; (iii) Agropastoral Adaptive Trials and Forestry (US$ 2.4 million) to test improved agricultural practices, produce improved seed, and expand forestry activities in the region; (iv) Animal Health and Livestock Production (US$ 2.7 million) to expand the NAHA program of village-level livestock examination and treatment; - 22 - (v) Water and Infrastructure Development (US$ 4.3 million) to construct and provide initial maintenance for boreholes, dugouts, and wells and to improve roads and airstrips; (vi) Conservation (US$ 3.1 million) to rrotect key flora and fauna in the project area and the Northern Rangelands; (v) Training (USS 3.0) to provide continued support to the University and short-term and medium-term training opportunities overseas, and (vi) Project Management (USS 8.7 million) to manage project and NRA activities in the region. C. Detailed Features Systems Investigation and Monitoring 3.6 This component would bring together the investigative and planning aspects of rangeland work. Knowledge gained about the constraints and possibilities of rangeland production would be incorporated into project investment activities through management plans based on homogenous agroecological units, aggregated to the District level. Investigative activities would include: (i) detailed study of broadly identified production systems (para 2.26) by a multidisciplinary team; (ii) predevelopment surveys of the districts to be worked in, prior to the formulation of District Management Plans; (iii) monitoring of trends in livestock numbers, rainfall, vegetation status, population, and health; (iv) monitoring of the productive effects of project interventions: reserves, water points, animal health treatments. 3.7 Implementation of this component would be coordinated from the Systems Investigation and Monitoring Department of the CRDP II (para 4.7). Items to be funded would include vehicles, equipment, photographic surveys, local salaries and allowances, operating costs, and technical assistance. Vehicles would include mobile field centers for the multidisciplinary team. Equipment would include automatic agrometereological stations for district headquarters and a Geographic Information System. Enough equipment and airplane time would be provided to undertake four bystematic Reconnaissance Surveys of the region. Existing photographs and satellite imagery of the region would be purchased to monitor changes in resource use. Salaries and allowances for local staff would include the Documentation Center and the Herbarium. An internationally recruited Agricultural Economist/Systems Analyst would head up the multidisciplinary team and coordinate the collection, organization and use of agroecological and socioeconomic information. A Sociologist/Rural Development Expert and a Range Management/Ecology Specialist also would form part of the multidisciplinary technical assistance team. - 23 - Extension 3.8 This component would provide for the further development of an extension service to: (i) disseminate the productivity-increasing (or degradation-decreasing) 'messages' developed by the project; (ii) organize RLAs to carry out project interventions and transmit new technologies; (iii) work with RLAs in the management of reserves, dugouts, and other interventions; and (iv) manage a fund to support small, village-level development initiatives. Up to US$ 2,500 could be used per subproject, with up to 3 subprojects per RLA. Some 24 District Extension Agents would work through about 120 Village Extension Workers, one in each of the degaans, contacted. Staff and would be concentrated in the 7 districts where enclosure and cultivation are greatest (and returns to improved techniques highest). Staff from the Extension Department would provide village-level guidance and facilitate contacts for the field work necessary in all project activities, including the formation of NAHAs. An internationally recruited Extension/Training Specialist would help to establish the system and train CRDP II staff. The project would provide financing for the vehicles, equipment, salaries, allowances and per diems, materials and operating costs, and technical assistance needed to carry out the above activities. Agropastoral Adaptive Trials and Forestry 3.9 This component provides for a trials program, a seed multiplication program, and continuation of seedling production and dissemination. The trials program initially would be centered at Bulo Burti and Nooleye. It would test improved husbandry methods, water harvesting techniques and crops suitable to arid areas, with the objective of increasing the productivity and sustainability of cultivation in a pastoral environment (para 4.15). In particular the adaptation of cereal/legume associations would be pursued. This would reduce farmers' need to shift locations and also reduce the area required to produce sufficient grain to cover subsistence requirements. New techniques would include strip cropping with strips sown to permanent fodder such as buffel grass. This approach would reduce wind erosion and degradation and provide additional dry season fodder for livestock. The seed multiplication program would use a production site funded by the project, and contract growers to bulk up the seed of improved crops and forage species for dissemination through the extension service. Seedling production, distribution, and other forestry related activities in the region would continue. 3.10 The program would be managed out of the Agropastoral Department and would have two field centers, located at Bulo Burti and Nooleye. Trials and seed production would be focussed at these centers. A study on dryland agriculture in combination with rangeland pastoralism (agropastoralism) and private enclosures would be initiated under the PPF (para 3.21). An internationally recruited Dryland Agronomist would set up the first series of trials, establish the seed multiplication operation, and participate in the multidisciplinary team analyzing przduction (para 3.6). The project would provide financing for the simple civil works at Bulo Burti and Nooleye and for vehicles, equipment, operating costs, salaries, allowances and per diems, and technical assistance needed to carry out the above activities. - 24 - Animal Health and Livestock Production 3.11 This component would provide basic animal health services at the village level. Major diseases and parasites affecting herd productivity in the project area would be addressed as follows. The NAHA system (para 2.41) would be expanded to cover the seven districts not covered by the existing GTZ program. A fund to be operated by CRDP would be established for the importation and resale of drugs to RLAs with NAHAs. The herd monitoring program initiated under CRDP I would be continued. 3.12 This component would be directed from Beletwayne (para 4.18). It would include a team consisting of an internationally recruited veterinarian, two local veterinarians, and three veterinarians' Assistants. The team would be responsible to the head of the existing animal health team. The project provides financing for the civil works, including housing for the expatriate veterinarian at Beletwayne. Vehicles and equipment, salaries, allowances and per diems, operating costs and technical assistance would also be funded. Water and Infrastructure Development 3.13 Under this component funds would be provided for infrastructure development and water point maintenance. The construction of water-related infrastructure would follow recommendations in District Management Plans. Provision in this component would be made for the construction of up to 70 dugouts, 5 boreholes and 56 shallow well head rehabilitations. The initial maintenance phase of existing CRDP I boreholes, dugouts, and wells will be carried out while RLA personnel receive instruction in maintenance. Five airstrips will be constructed at key district headquarters: Ceel Dhere, Ceel Bur, Harardhere, Jiriban, and Jalalaxi. There will also be regular grading of priority tracks through the region. 3.14 Activities would be managed out of the Soil and Water Conservation Department (para 4.20). Dugouts would be constructed utilizing the existing CRDP construction unit with its two crawler tracto.s and grader. One more grader would be purchased for road improvement and airstrip construction. A transporter trailer would be purchased to increase the mobility and utilization of the dugout construction unit. New boreholes would be constructed under contract. An externally recruited Rural Engineer would be brought in on short term consultancies to provide guidance in the location and design of dugouts, and in borehole construction. Funds would be provided for civil works contracts, vehicles, construction equipment, salaries, allowances, per diems, operating costs, and technical assistance. Conservation 3.15 The objective of this component is to assist in the conservation of key flora and fauna. Within the project area the goal would be to establish and guard four Flora and Fauna conservation reserves to protect key flora and fauna. The reserves would be located at Bud Bud/Hobbyo (4,000 square km), Harardhere (3,000 square km), Haxaas in Eastern Bulo Burti (3,000 square km), and Derihow in Western Bulo Burti (3,500 square km). In the Northern Rangelands the goal would be the protection of the Somali wild ass, the Beira antelope, Pelzeln's gazelle, and other fauna and flora. Reserves would be located in the Dalo Forest Reserve, and important - 25 - wild ass habitats. The latter have still to be identified and may include portions of the Nogal depression. 3.16 The Conservation Department within CRDP would supervise implementation of this component in close collaboration with the Wildlife Department of MFLR (para 2.21). The project would provide funding for an internationally recruited Range Management/Wildlife Specialist. This person would live in Galcaio and provide leadership and training in the early identification and reserve establishment stages. The project also would fund a system of wardens and guards to prevent the harvesting of wildlife and extraction of protected trees and bushes from protected areas. Arrangements would be made to permit pastoralists to continue grazing the protected areas. The project would provide funding for minor civil works, vehicles, equipment (including radios), salaries, allowances and per diems, operating costs, and technical assistance. Training 3.17 Project staff and pastoralists would be provided with training to increase their awareness of new techniques and approaches to rangeland management (para 4.22). Under this component support would be prcvided for the undergraduate program at the Department of Botany and Range al. the Faculty of Agriculture in the University of Somalia. This support would cover recurrent costs, vehicles, and an internationally recruited Range Management Professor. Local scholarships would also be provided to the Faculty of Agriculture and the Afgoi Forestry and Wildlife Training School. Training courses and seminars would be held by project personnel and expatriates. Several overseas courses would be offered, including a limited number of two year MSc courses. A study tour would be undertaken at the beginning of the project to provide firsthand information on agropastoralism and rangeland management techniques in other countries. Funds would also be provided to permit publication of research and other papers, including the Somali Journal of Range Science, produced under the project. Finally, a Training Center would be established in Bulo Burti District. Prolect Management 3.18 The project would support a project management team and a workshop dedicated to maintaining the project fleet. The management team would coordinate project funded activities, ensure that project goals are met, promote cost effectiveness, minimize duplication and enhance coordination of effort. The existing NRA representation would be maintained at the regional and district levels. Project activities be directed and adherence to the Range Law monitored by regional and district range officers. District level compounds would be constructed at Abudwak, Beira and Galdogob. Fuel storage tanks would be provided at all district headquarters. Two additional fuel tankers would be purchased to ensure fuel supplies at the district level. The project General Manager would be assisted by a Financial Controller and a Technical Manager. The internationally recruited Financial Controller would assist the Directors of Administration, Finance and Field Services and oversee international procurement. The Technical Manager, also recruited internationally, would provide guidance on the technical aspects of the project: rangeland research &nd monitoring, extension, agropastoral trials, animal health. The project would provide funding for civil works, vehicles - 26 - and equipment, salaries, allowances and per diems, operating costs, and technical assistance. Project implementation is discussed further in Chapter IV. D. Project Costs 3.19 The project is estimated to cost USS 33.3 million (SoSh 8,333 million) including physical and price contingencies. The foreign exchange component is US$ 25.7 million (SoSh 6,176 million), or about 77 percent of total cost. Project costs are summarized in Table 1.1 and presented fully in Annex 3. These cost estimates are based on March 1988 prices and exchange rates. Table 3.1 Project Cost Summary (SO SH '0001 oUS, 1000) . Total 7 fotal X foreign Base f foreign Base tocal Foreign Total Exchange Costs local Foreign Total Exchange Costs A. SYSTEMS INVESTIGATION AND RONlTORING 39S247.3 330 144.7 369.392.0 89 13 392 5 3,301.4 3.693.9 89 13 8. EXTENSION 147 694 6 254. 175 9 401,870 5 63 14 1.476 9 2. 541.8 4.018.7 63 14 C. AGROPASTORAL ADAPTIVE TRIALS AND FORESTRY 38,651.2 167.855 8 206,507.0 8t 7 386 S 1.678 6 2.065 1 81 7 D. ANIMAL HEALTH AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION 26.029. 1 198,993.9 225.023.0 88 8 260.3 1.989 9 2.250.2 88 8 E. WATER AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMIENT 58.067 6 299,666.4 357.734 0 84 13 580 7 2.996 7 3.577 3 84 13 F. CONSERVATION 91,750.7 172. 171.3 263.922.0 65 9 917 5 1.721 7 2.639.2 65 9 G. TRAINING 44.276.2 214.687 9 258. 964 0 83 9 442 8 2. 146 9 2.589 6 83 9 H1. PROJECT MANAGEMENT 194.681.7 533,873 8 728.555.5 73 26 1,946 8 5.338 7 7.285 6 73 26 Total BASELINE COSTS 640.398 32.171.569 7 2.811.968 0 77 100 6.404 0 21.715 7 28. 119 7 77 100 Physical Contngencies 36.243 7 132,513.4 168.757 1 79 6 362 4 1.325 1 .687 6 79 6 Price Contingencies 1.480.072 4 3.872.582 1 5.352.654 5 72 190 950 2 2.527 5 3.477 7 73 12 lotal PROJECT COSTS 2,156.714 4 6. 176 665 1 8.333.379 6 74 29b 7 716 6 25.Si68 4 33.285 0 77 118 3.20 Physical contingencies for civil works are 15 percent, and between 5 and 10 percent for all cther items. Altogether, physical contingencies represent some 6 percent of baseline costs. Price contingencies for foreign costs are based on expected increases in world prices. Local price contingencies reflect anticipated local inflation, as shown in Annex 2, together with expected exchange rate adjustments. Over six years, price contingencies would amount to 12 percent of baseline costs. ho taxes are included in the project costs. All imports for development projects are tax exempt. E. Startup Activities 3.21 The first phase of the project closed on December 31, 1987. In order cover the gap in funding before the second phase begins, and to undertake preliminary studies, a Project Preparation Facility (PPF) number P 485-SO for US$ 1.3 million was approved by IDA in a letter to the Minister of Finance of February 12, 1988 . This funding covers 87 percent of the - 27 - proposed activities budget. The PPF program would support preliminary studies to detail Phase II plans in the systems investigation and monitoring, extension, agropastoralism, and project management components. The PPF would also support the initiation of agropastoral trials and seed multiplication, and provide for two study tours. The funds would be used to purchase vehicles and equipment, minor civil works, operating costs, salaries and allowances, per diems, and technical assistance as needed for these activities. The breakdown of PPF costs is shown below: Table 3.2 PPF Activities Budget ( USS Dollars '000) Systems Agro- Exten- Project Investig'n Pastoral sion Mgmt/Trng TOTAL Civil Works - 182 - 6 188 Vehicles 18 54 36 - 108 Plant/Equipmt 206 116 22 18 362 Technical Assistance and Training 70 140 100 220 530 Operating Costs 25 31 56 - 112 Subtotal 314 523 214 245 1,300 (IDA financed) Local Salaries & Operating Expense 72 52 48 28 200 (Government financed) TOTAL 391 575 262 272 1,500 F. Financing 3.22 The US$ 33.3 million project would be financed by an IDA credit of US$ 19.0 million equivalent, an ADF loan of US$ 11.0 million equivalent, and a government contribution of USS 3.3 million equivalent. IDA and ADF would be financing 100 percent of the foreign exchange cests and 57 percent of local costs. Table 3.3 Financing Plan Percentage US$ Millions SDR Millions 1/ Contribution IDA 19.0 14.7 57 ADF 11.0 8.5 33 Government 3.3 2.5 10 Total 33.3 25.7 100 1/ At the US dollar/SDR exchange rate at negotiations: SDR 1.0 = US$ 1.2965 - 28 - 3.23 IDA and ADF each would finance the foreign exchange costs and a proportion of local costs in separate disbursement categories, as described in para 3.30. Donors would participate in financing local costs in the following categories: vehicle and other operating costs, -er d.Lems and allowances. The Government would finance salaries and contribute towards local expenditures in the cost categories mentioned previously. The government contribution in local currency would be provided from the Development Budget, as is currently done. Assurances were given that adequate funds to cover the Government's share of local costs will be budgeted each year and made available at the start of each quarter. An initial deposit of SoSh 50 million will be made into the project account by June 30, 1989, and replenished every six months. It is a condition of effectiveness for the IDA credit that the Government have met the conditions for effectiveness of the ADF loan. G. Procurement 3.24 Table 3.4 below summarizes the amount each donor would finance from each expenditure category. and the procurement procedure to be followed. Table 3.4 Proposed Procurement Method Project Item ICB LCB Other Total X Foreign Civil Works 2.6 2.4 5.0 85 (ADF) (2.6) (2.4) (5.0) Vehicles 6.8 0.8 7.6 95 (IDA) (6.8) (0.8) (7.6) T.A./Studies/Training 9.3 9.3 100 (IDA) (9.3) (9.3) Salaries 1.7 1.7 Allowances/Per Diems 3.2 3.2 0 (IDA) (1.2) (1.2) (ADF) (1.2) (1.2) Fuel/Vehicle Op'n 0.6 1.3 1.9 85 (IDA) (0.6) (0.3) (0.9) (ADF) (1.0) (1.0) Other Operating Costs 0.S 1.8 1.8 4.5 70 (ADF) (0.9) (1.8) (1.1) (3.8) Total Project Cost 8.3 5.2 19.8 33.3 77 IDA Financing 7.4 0.8 10.8 19.0 ADF Financing 0.9 4.4 5.7 11.0 S.25 TUnder the parallel cofinancing arrangements agreed at negotiations, IDA would finance all eligible technical assistance, training, vehicle and - 29 - equipment costs. It also would participate in vehicle operating costs by financing fuel and lubricants. IDA would also finance allowances and per diems, contributing 50 percent of the amount financed by donors. The ADF would finance all eligible civil works and other operating expenditures. It would also participate in expenditures for allowances, per diems, and vehicle operating costs. Procurement procedures for each type of item would follow the requirements of the donor agency financing it. 3.26 Civil works for buildings and district compounds are small scale and scattered throughout the project area. The construction of the 70 dugouts, the grading of project roads, and the construction of five a'rstrips would be undertaken by force account by the project, which already owns the heavy machinery and equipment, and has developed the expertise in this type of cnnstruction during the first phase project. Borehole construction would be contracted out. Procurement for the different types of civil works will be done according to procedures agreed with ADF at negotiations. 3.27 Vehicles, equipment and spares, and fuel and lubricants under the vehicle operating costs would be financed by IDA. These items would be bulked into packages of USS 150,000 or more, and procured under international competitive bidding (ICB) procedures satisfactory to IDA. Purchases of less than US$ 150,000 equivalent would not attract foreign bidders because of their smaller contract value and the availability of local bidders. These items would be purchased under local competitive bidding procedures up to an aggregate maximum of US$ 700,000 over the life of the project. Purchases of less than US$ 50,000, and purchases of certain specialized items such as spare parts, would be undertaken under prudent shopping procedures vitn at least three bids, and through direct contract respectively. These purchases would be allowed up to an aggregate maximum of US$ 500,000 over the life of the project. Vehicles would be purchased in three separate bids to be executed in 1989, 1991, and 1993. Prior to approving vehicle purchases, IDA would ensure that vehicle administration and use was satisfactory, and that annual vehicle audit recommendations were being implemented (para 4.24). 3.28 Assurances were given that, for IDA financed items, IDA would review all ICB, LCB, prudent shopping and directly negotiated contracts of more than US$ 20,000 equivalent prior to terdering and award. Under these procedures 95 percent of all contracts to be financed by IDA (US$ 8.5 million) would be subject to prior review. 3.29 Internationally recruited technical assistance and consultants to be financed by IDA would be selected according to IDA's Guidelines for the Use of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers' published August 1981. Contracts for consultant services would be grouped. The SIMP team (para 3.6) would be grouped with the Technical Manager (para 3.18). The Professor and other short term consultants at the Faculty of Agriculture (para 3.17) would be obtained via a twinning arrangement negotiated with an appropriate overseas University. The Extension/Training Specialist (para 3.8) would be grouped with the Dryland Agronomist (para 3.9). The Veterinarian (para 3.11) would be hired separately. The remaining positions and short term consultancies would be awarded as appropriate. Assurances were given that terms of - 30 - reference, qualifications, arid terms and conditions of employment will be satisfactory to IDA. Government and IDA would ensure that items listed in para 4.27 are included in the terms of reference and contracts. H. Disbursements 3.30 The IDA credit and the ADF loan would be disbursed over eight years, the average period for projects in Somalia. Table 3.5 shows the loan and credit allocations by category of expenditure and the percentages of expenditure to be financed. Table 3.5 Disbursements Schedule (US$ million equivalent) IDA ADF 2 Expenditure Total Disbursed Credit Loan 21 Financed Civil Works 4.2 - 4.2 90 Vehicles and 6.4 6.4 - 10C of foreign Equipment 85 of local Consultant Services, 7.7 7.7 - 100 Studies and Training Allowances and Per 2.0 1.0 1.0 85 declining Diems to 45 17 Fuel and Vehicle 1.6 0.8 0.8 100 of foreign Operating Costs 95 of local Other Operating 3.4 - 3.4 100 of foreign Costs 45 of local Refunding PPF 1.3 1.3 - Disbursed amount plus charges Unallocated 3.4 1.8 1.6 TOTAL 30.0 19.0 11.0 1/ For IDA: 432 until June 30, 1992; 38Z until June 30, 1993; 33Z until June 30, 1994; and 23Z until June 30, 1995. ADF will disburse at the same rates. 2/ ADF disbursement data estimated. 3.31 IDA disbursements would be made against full documentation, except for disbursements covering vehicle and other operating costs, allowances and per diems for government agencies, and all contracts of less than US$ 20,000 equivalent, which would be made against statements of expenditure. The Closing Date for this project is June 30, 1995. 3.32 In order to expedite the disbursement of IDA funds, a Special Account would be established in an off shore commercial bank in favor of CRDP. The - 31 - authrized allocation of the account would be US$ 500,000. The account would be managed by the project Fiuancial Controller. All eligible expenditures under IDA-financed categories would be eligible for payment from the account. Assurances were given that the Special Account would be operated on terms and conditions acceptable to IDA. Replenishment applications documenting expenditures from the Special Account would be submitted on a regular monthly basis. I. Accounts and Audits 3.33 The PMU would be responsible for the control and use of project resources. The Financial Controller is already in place, with financing from the PPF. A satisfactory accounting and record keeping system was established under Phase I. Assurances were given that: (i) records would be kept permitting identification of all receipts and payments under the project. These records would be made available to IDA or ADF cn request; (ii) financial statements including a balance sheet, income and expenditure statement, and sources and uses of funds statement would be prepared by the PMU at the close of the fiscal year; (iii) independent auditors satisfactory to IDA and ADF would audit project accounts and the Special Accounts at the Central Bank, and provide IDA and ADP with certified copies of the auditor's opinion, the long form of the audit, and a management letter, within 6 months of the close of the fiscal year; (iv) a separate audit opinion would be provided on records and accounts used to support disbursements against statements of expenditure; (v) the CRDP would retain a Financial Controller with qualifications and experience acceptable to IDA and ADF. Assurances were given that the audit reports for fiscal years 1986 and 1987 will be deceived by IDA and ADF by June 30, 1989. It is a condition of effectiveness that project auditors have been hired by Government. J. Women in the Project 3.34 The project will work with the family production system in the rangelands, and women are an integral part of this system. In livestock husbandry activities women and children are often responsible for the care and milking of the small stock (sheep and goats). Men and the older boys care for the camels and cattle. In the agropastoral areas, women provide much of the labor associated with land preparation and weeding. The onerous task of taking the camel trains to and from the water source is shared within the family. Although the woman plays an important role in the family's productive activities, the man has the major role in deciding on the allocation and use of the family's resources. More information would be gathered on the role of women in this pastoral society as part of the multidisciplinary investigation of pastoral production systems (para 4.8). A rural sociologist would be hired to address issues such as this, and guide project interventions according to the findings of these studies. 3.35 It is difficult for males to communicate extension mesaages to women. Using female extension agents would help to overcome this problem and to - 32 - establish important links established with the people doing much of the actual work. Assurances were given thrt the Government will include an adequate number of qualified female extension agents in the project. K. Environmental Impact 3.36 The project wil' have a positive effect on the rangeland environment. Preventing the degradation of the long-term productive capacity of the Central Rangelands is an important project objective, and is congruent with national programs to prevent desertification. The project would test agroecological monitoring techniques, and generate a lot of new information to use in formulating a national anti-desertification program. The intensive multidisciplinary study and monitoring program supported by the project (para 3.6) would lead to a much broader understanding of the factors causing a deterioration of the rangelands. Soil conservation would be enhanced from the proposed strip cropping techniques in cultivated areas, live fencing of cropped areas and reserves, the establishment of town shelterbelts, tree planting, and sand dune stabilization sites, and the setting aside of grazing reserves. Stricter application of the laws governing conservation of flora and fauna, and management of rangelands (para 4.2) will reduce the extraction of endangered wood species for charcoal and improve the protection of wildlife. The conservation component (para 3.15) would establish reserves within the Central and the Northern Rangelands. These reserves would protect endangered species of wildlife, trees, and shrubs. IV. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION A. Organization and Management 4.1 Execution of the second phase of the project is the responsibility of the Central Rangelands Development Project organization. Implementation of the first phase was the responsibility of the NRA, which has a presence in all regions of the country. In order to streamline the administration of rangelands development in the Central Rangelands, the staff and infrastructure corresponding to the three regions of Hiran, Galgudud, and Mudug were separated off from NRA and given separate status as a project implementation organization, known as the Central Rangelands Development Project (CRDP). This separation was sanctioned by Ministerial Directive of February 21, 1988 (Annex 6) and has strengthened CRDP's financial and administrative independence which existed since the Mid Term Review of March 3984 (para 2.46). CRDP has to implement all the laws which come under the responsibility of the MLFR, including those referring to Range Management and Wildlife Conservation (para 4.2). 4.2 Activities pertaining to range management and fauna and flora conservation in Somalia operate under four different pieces of legislation: Law No. 15, Law No. 23, Law No. 68, and Law No. 3. Law No. 15 was signed in - 33 - January 1969 and addresses Fauna and Forest Conservation (para 2.29). Law No. 23, signed in August 1976, created the NRA. Law No. 68, of October 1970, provided further regulation on forestry range and wildlife activities. This Law was superseded by Law No. 3, signed in February 1979. Law No. 3 is an Act for the conservation, development, and management of rangeland, and the fight against desertification (Annex 8, Document C.7). This law gives the Minister of Livestock, Forestry and Range the power to create grazing reserves. It also permits the NRA, and hence CRDP to manage these reserves, create Rarge and Livestock Associations, control and use water supplies in the rangelands, take measures to promote rangeland conservation, manage a Range Fund, and penalize all infractions. Organizational Struzture 4.3 The organizational structure of CRDP is depicted in Annex 7. The project General Manager heads the organization and reports directly to the Minister of Livestock, Forestry and Range. The General Manager is assisted in his duties by a Field Manager and an internationally recruited Technical Manager. The Field Manager ensures that the logistical apparatus is functioning satisfactorily. This function includes: (i) managing the fuel supplies, particularly for Mogadishu and the field offices; (ii) maintaining field offices and equipment; (iii) facilitating communications between field offices and headquarters, and (iv) monitoring the allocation, use, and repair of vehicles. The Technical Manager oversees the many research and investigation activities in the project. This person also is directly responsible for the coordination and implementation of the multidisciplinary team to investigate production systems. A Somali director heads up each of the departments within CRDP: Systems Investigation and Monitoring, Agropastoralism, Extension, Water and Infrastructure Development, Conservation, and Administration and Finance. All directors report to the General Manager and are supported by a team of local and expatriate staff. Assurances were given that the General Manager, Technical Manager, Financial Controller and Field Manager will be in place by June 30, 1989. 4.4 At the field level, regional and district range officers will continue to handle the logistical and administrative arrangements for all field personnel. Technical guidance in specialized fields will be provided by the appropriate senior technical staff. Extension, agropastoral, animal health, and forestry personnel will report to the Extension Department, based in Mogadishu. District range officers will handle follow-up and supervision of project initiatives in their districts. This function covers village shelter belts, forestry plantations, seedling production, sand dune stabilization, monitoring information, maintenance of dugouts and boreholes, and interaction with leaders and local officials. 4.5 A Project Management Committee will meet once every two weeks to discuss policy questions, review problems, and improve awareness and coordination across components. This committee will be headed by the General Manager and will include all the Department Directors, the Technical Manager, and the Financial Controller. The committee will make decisions on: (i) the assignment of staff to training courses; (ii) proposals submitted under the RLA Development Fund; (iii) the annual work program and budget; (iv) District Management Plans; and (v) technologies for - 34 - dissemination th,ough the extension service. Minutes of the Project Management Committee meetings would be reviewed by IDA and ADF supervision missions. Assurances were given that the Project Management Committee would be establised by June 30, 1989. 4.6 A Project Steering Committee was established under Phase I and meets every six months to review project implementation, work plans, and budgets. Assurances were given that this committee be chaired by the Minister of Livestock, Forestry and Range, and include the project General Manager, representatives from each of the concerned donors and a representative from the Ministry of Finance. B. Component Implementation Sysrems Investigation and Monitoring 4.7 Implementation of these activities (paras 3.6-3.7) would be the responsibility of the Systems Investigation and Monitoring Department. This department will be headed by the Technical Director and receive technical advice and support from the Technical Manager. The department would include: (i) the multidisciplinary team for production systems investigation and surveys; (ii) the ecological monitoring unit; (iii) the documentat..on center; and (iv) the herbarium. 4.8 The multidisciplinary team for production systems investigation would be headed by the Technical Manager, who would provide guidance, and direction, and partial field assistance. The field team would include internationally and locally recruited staff. Internationally recruited staff would include a Range Manager/Ecologist, a Sociologist, and a Dryland Agronomist. The Agronomist also would lead in the Agropastoral investigation work. Locally recruited staff would include a Livestock Specialist and range management personnel. The internationally recruited Systems Analyst/Agricultural Economist, would assist the team in des:igning surveys and analyzing data. He would also head up the ecological monitoring unit. The multidisciplinary team for production systems investigation would carry out simple studies of the most important aspects of the production systems tentatively identified in para 2.26. Two production systems would be surveyed each year, so that all systems would have been studied over a four year period. In surveying each production system, the investigation team would be assisted by a team of locally recruited extension staff, who would then stay on as permanent staff in the district surveyed. Extension staff already placed in districts would be incorporated into the multidisciplinary team for the survey. One function of the multidisciplinary team would be to design and initiate monitoring systems to study: (i) returns to range management, (ii) methods to improve soil and water conservation; (iii) useful interventions in livestock production and health; (iv) pastoral production systems; (v) pastoral husbandry systems, and (vi) the agropastoral system. The Ecological Monitoring Unit would follow up on the collection and analysis of this data. - 35 - 4.9 Under the supervision of the Systems Anal st/Agricultural Economist, the Ecological Monitoring Unit would be responsible fort (i) collecting, receiving, and analyzing all ecological, agricultural, sociological, and economic data collected by permanent district staff; (ii) implementing four Systematic Reconnaissance Flights to estimate livestock and vegetation biomass during sequential wet and dry seasons; (iii) interpreting sequential stages of satellite and aerial photo coverage of the project area; and (iv) compiling and analyzing data gathered by the automatic meterological recording stations. Information obtained from these four sources would be utilized to produce maps and charts and determine trends, changes and correlations with other phenomena. A key tool in the manipulation of this data would be the computer-based geographic information system to be purchased by the project. Assistance in operating this system from the Global Environment Monitoring System at UNEP in Nairobi would ensure that the information stored is compatible with UNEP's Global Resource Information Database (Annex 8, Document A.2). Management Plans 4.10 The production system survey may only cover a small proportion of a given district. In each district included by the project, the district range officer and the district extension team would undertake a predevelopment survey of the whole district. Based on the characteristics identified for the production systems prevailing in the district, management proposals would be developed for discussion with CRDP and local authorities. Once approved, these proposals would become the District Management Plans and would be used to guide project interventions and activities in the district. Assurances were given that no dugouts or boreholes would be constructed in the Central Rangelands that had not been approved by the Project Management Committee and incorporated in the relevant District Management Plan. Extension 4.11 Under this component, extension work done under the non-formal education component in Phase I (para 3.8) would be continued. Responsibility for implementation will rest with the Director of the Extension Department in Mogadishu, assisted by the Extension and Training Specialist. The structure of the extension service would be as follows. A village extension worker would be hired to work at the 'degaan' level with local pastoralists and help form an RLA in priority districts where the project is active. In agropastoral areas, a visitation schedule would be established during the two growing seasons. A district extension officer, while working with the members of the Odegaan,' would supervise and train village extension workers. One district extension officer would be assigned to up to three 'degaans', depending on the intensity of the work and local receptivity to the project *messages.' Monthly training sessions would be provided to the district extension officers by subject matter specialists from the Mogadishu-based Extension Department, the agropastoral program, or the animal health and livestock production program. Three training sessions would be run per month, one for each of the regions. The training facility at Aborey would be rehabilitated and used for some of the courses. - 36 - 4.12 The extension service would serve as a vehicle for project community development and technology transfer activities. Initial contacts with district communities would be established during the pre-development surveys (para 4.8) and the formulation of District Management Plans. Low key interventions -- village shelter belts, stabilizatiorn of small dunes, improvement of shallow wells -- would be coordinated through the extension service. At the same time the extension service would be working towards the formation of community groups and RLAs. The extension service would have to (i) organize the community support needed by the animal health and livestock production staff in their herd surveys and for the identification and training of NAHAs; (ii) help to establish the demonstration farms under the agropastoral trials program; (iii) transfer the improved cultivation and water harvesting techniques developed under the trials program; (iv) negotiate on the size, location, and purpose of grazing reserves, or flora and fauna reserves; (v) negotiate on the location of dugouts and boreholes, and organize and sustain the eventual RLA operation and maintenance of this infrastructute; and (vi) administer an RLU 'velopment Fund (para 4.13). Range and Livestock Association Development ad 4.13 A fund of USS 300,000 would be established under the project to support village-level initiatives sponsored by RLA's requiring small but important cash outlays. Potential uses of this fund might include grants for community infrastructure or loans for small production entei,rises. Community infrastructure might include schools, community buildings, pumps, wells, market places, and hand pumps where labor and some materials would be obtained locally. Small productive enterprises might include fodder production, honey or ghee production or marketing, production of improved implements, or harnesses introduced under the project. Proposals would be reviewed and vetted by the extension service. Final approval would rest with the Project Management Committee. Assurances were given that the fund would be established by December 31, 1989 and would be used only to support proposals which: (i) supported an RLA which could have received up to two prior grants; (i') had a contribution of at least 25 percent of the value from local sources (in labor or materials); and (iii) did not involve a CRDP cash contribution of more than US$ 2,500 equivalent. Tn the case of support to privately owned productive enterprises, assurances were given that funds would be provided as loans, at interest rates consistent with those charged by local commercial banks. Repayment terms shall not exceed five years. Agropastoral Adaptive Trials and Forestry 4.14 The Agropastoral Department would be charged with the adaptive trials program (para 3.9). Most of the work would be in the Bulo Burti and Ceel Dhere districts, the focus of water harvesting and agropastoral activity. The team running the trials would use the extension service to set up demonstration plots with the improved crops and techniques. New technologies would be disseminated by the extension service once they are tested and approved for distribution by the Project Management Committee (para 4.5). The annual agropastoral trials program would be cleared with the Directorate of Research at the Ministry of Agriculture. The project team would periodically visit the dryland agricultural research station at Bonka in Baidoa in order to ensure a sharing of results and experience. - 37 - 4.15 The initial agropastoral trials program would be designed by the Dryland Agronomist and Soils Specialist brought in under the PPF (para 3.21). The prominent features of this program are as follows. Live fencing trials using varieties of Commiphora would be implemented to reduce tree cutting for fences. Agroforestry trials would be implemented using multipurpose fodder, wood, and shade trees mixed with local species such as Terminalia Spii.osa, Acacia Senegal, and Acacia Albida. Strip clearir.g trials would be done to determine the most appropriate width and placement of the cropping strips being proposed in lieu of the circular areas cleared now. Species elimination trials would serve to test the growLh rates and usefulness of local trees, bushes, and grasses. Tests would be run on the suitability of different crops -- millet and mungbean show promise -- and on soil fertility and returns to fertilizer use, rotation measures, plant densities, intercropping systems, and weeding rates. Water harvesting trials would test means of making better use of rainwater runoff for cultivation. Finally, trials would be run to make more effective use of the high water table that exists in certain locations. 4.16 A seed multiplication and storage facility would be established to support the trials and extension program. The site chosen for this facility would have irrigation potential close to the Shebelli River in Bulo Burti. The detailed program would be designed by a Seeds Specialist and Irrigation Engineer to be brought in under the PPF (para 3.21). 4.17 The forestry component would complement the GTZ-supported forestry activities in Beletwayne, Dusa Mareb, and Galcaio. In these areas large nurseries have been established and successful forestry trials are under way using irrigation and water harvesting. Nurseries would be established in the priority districts as these are extended. An Arid Land Forester would be hired to design a seedling production, village tree planting, and shelter belt program, and to supervise it periodically. This consultant also would advise on the forestry aspects of the agroforestry and high water table trials. Animal Health and Livestock 4.18 Leadership for this component would remain with the GTZ Veterinary Team in Beletwayne. The additional veterinarian to be hired under Phase II would live in Beletwayne or Bulo Burti. The herd monitoring and NAHA program would be expanded in the priority districts, and gradually extended over the Central Rangelands (para 3.11). The same strategy used in Phase I in the herd monitoring and NAHA program would be followed in Phase II (Annex 8, Document A.1). Preliminary surveys would establish the incidence of disease, production coefficients, and husbandry practices. This information would be used to establish a disease prevention and control program and to develop improved nutrition and husbandry practices. 4.19 The supply of veterinary drugs and medicines is a chronic constraint. Supplies can only be insured if the full cost of drugs and medicines is recovered from the pastoralists, and if suffIcient foreign exchange is made available to ensure that stocks can be replenished by imports. A provision has been made for a US$250,000 revolving fund to be managed by the Financial Department of CRDP. This fund would be replenished in local currency from - 38 - the sale of drugs to the RLAs and lAHAs. Assurances were given that veterinary drugs and medicines from the CRDP revolving fund are sold to RLA's at wholesale free market prices. The CRDP will prepare a regulation satisfactory to IDA to govern administration of this fund by June 30, 1989. Water and Infrastructure Development 4.20 The availability of water affects all activities in the project area and is a key determinant of degradation patterns. The implementation of this component would be the responsibility of the 'Water and InfrastrucLure Development Department. Techniques for dugout construction have been tried and tested, and a satisfactory standard design for a 2,500 to 3,000 cubic meter pond has evolved (para 2.9). Because the pond is temporary, the year- round carrying capacity of the range would not be affected, and the nutritional status of animals would be improved. Successful filling and water holding is still very much conditioned on skill in location and choice of soil quality. Techniques to seal the more porous soils would be investigated. The rehabilitation of wellheads with concrete and the construction of watering troughs have been well received by herdsmen and will continue. As many as five boreholes could be funded by the project, in cases where large expanses of forage are underutilized, and access to alternate water sources is not possible. These boreholes would be constructed under contract (para 3.26). All other civil works included in this component would be undertaken using the heavy equipment already owned by the project entity. A borehole service unit also would be funded under the project. Conservation 4.21 A small CRDP Conservation Unit would be established in the Systems Investigation and Monitoring Department. This uni* would work with the MLFR Wildlife Department in implementing conservation activities (para 3.15). The purpose of these activities would be to establish reserves which protect select species of wildlife and vegetation from human exploitation and destruction. Preliminary work in defining the boundaries of reserves within the Central Rangelands would take place under the leadership of the Range Management/Wildlife Specialist. The Specialist also would establish agreements with local communities. In all these activities he would receive the support of the extension service and range officers. Armed guards and wardens would not be put in place until the reserves were established and demarcated and infrastructure put in place. In the Northern Rangelands, the Wildlife Department, under the leadership of the Range Management/Wildlife Specialist, would identify and demarcate reserves, and conduct the community work needed to declare the reserve and the establish guards. The CRDP Conservation Unit would include the wildlife specialist mentioned above and two locally-trained assistant wildlife specialists. Funds would be provided from the Training component (para 3.17) to train personnel at the Afgoi Forestry and Wildlife Training School and the Hweka Wildlife Training Center in Tanzania. To the extent feasible, the conservation reserves to be established would not infringe on the grazing and watering rights of the pastoralists who normally use the land. This provision would not apply to reserves set aside for climax ecological environments. - 39 - Training 4.22 Project training activities would be coordinated by the Technical Manager and personnel to be trained would be approved by the Project Management Committee (para 4.5). Assurances were given that a proposal, satisfactory to IDA, for a project training facility in Bulo Burti district be submitted by June 30, 1989. Assurances were also given that the training program would be run under the following guideliness (i) only CRDP personnel with more than a year's experience in the project are eligible for training; (ii) personnel only will be trained if they and the Government agree they will return to work in a position that is predetermined prior to their departure. Prolect Administration 4.23 Fuel The availability of fuel affects all project activities. Fuel for project use is normally provided by the Government's National Petroleum Agency. The project will need about 400,000 liters of diesel and 80,000 liters of petrol a year. Headquarters has storage capacity for 40,000 liters of fuel. UTnder the second phase of the project, an additional 20,000 litre tank will be installed in Mogadishu, and 3,000 litre tanks will be placed at each district compound. In order to simplify the logistics of fuel supply and reduce fuel consumption all vehicles purchased under the second phase will run on diesel fuel. Assurances were given that, in the event fuel is not available from Government sources, the project will be authorized to purchase fuel from alternate sources, including direct importation. 4.24 Vehicles The careful maintenance and use of a large fleet of four wheel-drive vehicles and heavy trucks and tractors is essential to a successful project. Distances are long, and roads are in bad need of repair. Under the second phase, the workshop and vehicle maintenance facility established during CRDP I would be consolidated and expanded. Vehicle purchases under the project would occur in three groups (para 3.27. In order to improve conservation, assurances were given that an annual audit be undertaken of vehicle use to verify the use of sound management practices in vehicle maintenance and operation. This audit would certify that, among other sound management practices: (i) log books be kept on vehicles used in the project; (ii) project vehicles are only be used on official business; and (iii) drivers are held responsible for the condition of their vehicle, tool kit and spares, which would be ascertained every 20,000 km. At these inspection points, drivers whose vehicles are in better condition than the norm would receive an increase in remuneration. The vehicle use audit report would be provided to IDA and ADF by June 30 of each year. Continued funding of vehicle purchases for the project will be contingent on the use of sound management practices in vehicle maintenance and operation (para 3.27). 4.25 Salaries, Allowances and Perdiems Inadequate remuneration of local staff has affected implementation of Phase I. To address this problem, IDA and ADF would provide funding for allowances and perdiems. Assurances were given that (i) the Government will put in place a revised structure for project staff remuneration (including salaries, allowances and perdiems) by December 31, 1989. The new structure shall be based on the one provided to - 40 - IDA and ADF at appraisal (Annex 3, Table 12); (ii) that remuneration for locally hired staff will be adjusted annually in order to maintain the purchasing power of the salary structure submitted to IDA and ADF as of March 1988; and (iii) staffing levels will not exceed those indicated in the appraisal cost tables (Annex 3), without IDA and ADF authorization. 4.26 Office Space The Government has agreed that adequate offices and other rooms in the NRA headquarters building would be allocated to CRDP staff during Phase II. C. Technical Assistance 4.27 Technical assistance requirements for the project are heavy. Some 45 person-years of technical assistance would be provided for ten positions Technical Manager, Financial Controller, Systems Analyst/Agricultutal Economist, Sociologist, Range Management/Ecology Expert, Extension Training Specialist, Dryland Agronomist, Veterinarian, Range Management/Wildlife Specialist, and Professor of Range Management. Requirements are heavy for several reasons. First, the research, systems investigation, and monitoring work to be undertaken is sophisticated and local expertise for this work is not available. Second, guidance will be needed in new undertakings such as agropastoral trials, wildlife conservation, and the rangelands extension system. Third, a short period of specialized input is needed to perfect techniques in financial management, and to teach range management in the University. In order to ensure that as much expertise as possible is transferred, consultant contracts (to be reviewed by IDA (para 3.29)) would include paragraphs to ensure that (i) trained local staff are assigned to work with the expert; (ii) training priority is given to those local staff who do work with an expert; (iii) each expert teaches and produces documentation on his contribution to the project. The experts would be expected to teach one short course each year, involving one week of preparation time and 2/3 days of lecture time. Experts also, would produce a short paper on the application of the concepts in their field to the Somali situation. In addition, each expert would write a final report that would be due before he received final payment. This report would review his contribution to the project, summarize papers produced and research conclusions, and provide clear guidelines for the continuation of work initiated du.ring his tenure. Conditions to this effect would be included in all technical assistance contracts negotiated under the project. 4.28 Technical assistance staff would be hired either individually, or as a team (para 3.29), as determined by the nature of the task to be undertaken. In the case of the technical assistance to the Faculty of Agriculture, the most appropriate type of support would be a twinning arrangement with an appropriate overseas University, so that a long term teaching and training relationship can be established (para 3.29). Draft terms of reference have been drafted for each of the positions (Annex 8, Document A.6). All matters pertaining to the management of technical assistance would be handled by the General Manager and the Technical Manager. - 41 - D. Planning, Monitoring and Reporting 4.29 A small Planning Department would produce the annual work program and monitor its implerventation. A system for doing this already is in place. It is used to build up an annual budget based on submissions from each district. Satisfactory indicators of performance have been defined and are in use. The definition of each district's implementation targets is used to determine the annual budget. The budget then is used as the basis for submitting local funding requirements to Government. In order to provide Departmental managers with the information on the resources available to them, assurances were given that a budget for operating costs and a fuel budget will be prepared. The shilling budget for operating costs would cover per diems and supplies and would be prepared quarterly by each department. The budget would be presented in shillings. It would include a breakdown of funds available and funds expended as the fiscal year progresses. The fuel budget also would be prepared by each department on a quarterly basis. Managers would be advised of the fuel available and expended each quarter as the fiscal year progresses. Assurances were given that the Government will submit drafts of the annual work program, the annual budget, and the shilling budget for personal and operating costs to IDA and ADF by November 30 of each project year. The documents would be examined and revised before they are submitted to the Ministry of Finance. The final versions would be submitted to IDA and ADF on approval by Government. 4.30 Monitoring information would be collected by the Planning Department and compiled into semi-annual progress reports. Assurances were given that semi-annual progress reports with both physical and financial information will be provided to IDA and ADF by July 31 of each year, and annual progress reports by January 31. Evaluation of project impact would be assessed under the systems investigation and monitoring component, and periodic reports would be provided as studies were completed. Assurances were given that project management will prepare a mid-term review report after the first three years of implementation assessing the progress and impact of the project, identifying major problems and constra'.nts, and making recommendations for modifications in organization and design. This report will be prepared under terms of reference agreed with IDA and ADF, and will be presented to IDA and ADF by March 31, 1992. After the report is reviewed, a joint mid-term review mission would be conducted, to ratify the recommended changes. The mission would include representatives from all participating donors and government agencies. 4.31 The indicative Implementation Schedule in Annex 5 shows when each of the districts would be considered a priority for project interventions. Precedence is given to those districts already worked in. Bulo Burti, Ceel Dhere, and Hobbyo are all priority districts from Year 1. Jalalaxi, Harardhere, and Ceel Bur are included in Year 2. Full project intervention in a district could not take place however, until the District Management Plans were agreed to (para 4.10). The Completion Date for the project would be December 31, 1994. - 42 - V. PRODUCTION, MAURKETS AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS A. Incremental Production 5.1 Incremental production from this project would result from the effects of the expanded anihial health assistance program, the agropastoral trials and extension program, and the strategic dugout construction program. Expanding the animal health assistance program would result in additional animal and milk production. The agropastoral trials and extension program, which would contain desertification, would reduce clearing activities and increase the production of pulses, grains, and forage. The dugout construction program would improve nutrition by making additional forage available for consumption at the beginning of the dry season. This in turn would boost animal offtake weights and milk production. Estimates of these increases are based on investigation work undertaken in the first phase, including detailed surveys by the GTZ veterinary team. Detailed tables supporting the estimates are presented in Aunex 4. 5.2 The incremental output from herds due to veterinary interventions is as follows: Table 5.1: Annual Increase in Animal Production from Animal Health Activities Sheep/Goats Milk (No.) ('000 1) Agropastoral Herds 1,070 193 Pastoral Herds 3,670 975 This increase in production would be the result of a fairly modest program under which some 120 NAHAs are trained and 1,800 herds assisted. Each NAHA would be able to assist 15 herds. Two standard sheep\goat herds, one for agropastoral areas 85 animals, and the other for pastoral areas with 256 animals. An adoption rate of 85 percent means that about 1,530 herds, half agropastoral and half pastoral, would respond to project interventions. This includes some 261,000 animals, or 3 percent of the region's sheep and goat population. The animal offtake rate would increase from 26-27 percent of the average herd size to 28 percent a year, an increase of 6 to 7 percent. The exact rate of increase would depend on whether agropastoral or rangelands herds are considered. Increases in milk of 250 liters a year per agropastoral herd, or 1,275 liters a year per pastoral herd are posited. These would result from biannual deworming and the provision of mineral supplements (para 2.19). The increased weight and health of animals sold would yield additional benefits estimated at 15 percent of the selling price. The deworming treatment is easily given, requires little additional labor, and is actively sought by pastoralists. The treatment of sheep and goats for pleuropneumonia and the treatment of camels and cattle for trypanosomiasis and clamydiosis would generate additional benefits which have not been quantified. - 43 - 5.3 The estimates of incremental output from agropastoral activities are as follows: Table 5.2: Annual Increase in Crop Production (tons) Sorghum 3,400 Cowpea 11,800 Mungbeans 1,800 Forage Dry Matter 93,400 These estimates assume that 70 village extension workers in agropastoral areas work through some 2,800 contact farmers and are able to reach some 14,000 farmers. Of those farmers reached, 75 percent, or 10,500 are assumed to adopt the improved technology. Production increases are the result of techniques already in use (para 2.25), some of which will be further refined in the trials program (para 4.15). Forage production is valued at a sale price of SoSh 5 per kg of dry matter to include benefits resulting from the availability of additional fodder during the dry season. Benefits to live fencing from reduced erosion and have not been included, nor have benefits from introducing millet and other crops, and increased fodder production. 5.4 The incremental output from the water development component are estimated using the livestock herds analyzed for the veterinary component. The increases are as follows: Table 5.3 Annual Increase in Animal Production from Water Development Activities Sheep/Goats (animals) 6,900 Milk (liters) 185,000 The increase in areas available for grazing is assumed to take place within a 10-km radius of the water point to be constructed. The increase would amount to about 15 percent of the project area when the target of 70 dugouts and 5 boreholes is completed. The additional grazing area utilized has been reduced by 60 percent to reflect the overlapping coverage of water points, difficulty of access, and variations in forage quality. The carrying capacity of these areas is calculated based on the current average of some 15.7 TLU per square kilometer over wet and dry seasons. Improved nutrition and reduced stress from lack of water would increase offtake from 26 percent to 26.5 percent. Concurrent increases would take place in milk production. B. Markets and Prices 5.5 The nature of the marketing system in the project area has been described in paras 2.33 - 2.35. No problems are foreseen with having the market absorb the additional offtake. Pecent analyses of the Middle East market indicate that, even with increasing competition from Turkey, Sudan, Australia and New Zealand, there is still an unsatisfied demand for Somali sheep and goats due to their unique meat and fat characteristics. Peak - 44 - demand for small ruminants occurs during the Haj religious festivals. Some of the constraints to livestock marketing noted previously are being addressed under the USAID Livestock Marketing Project (para 1.12). Other difficulties in livestock marketing should be taken up under future agricultural policy adjustment projects. 5.6 The project area has a deficit in grain foods. Incremental pulse and grain production would be consumed by the producing families, or it would be sold to supplement the meager supplies available in the region. Milk forms a large part of the pastoral4st diet and provides a large proportion of the necessary calories and protein. It would be consumed locally. 5.7 Prices fluctuate during the year according to the availability of fodder and water and changes in international market prospects. Changes in the exchange rate regime, taxation policy, and snipping alternatives all affect the prices received on the range. The marketing system, which is traditional, responds rapidly to price signals. Although sales are made on a per animal basis, a premium is received for quality. The price levels prevailing at appraisal during the middle of the long dry season (March 1988), have been averaged across locations. They are presented below. Table 5.4 Financial Prices at the Farmgate (per animal) (US$) (US$) (SoSh) (official) (market) Sheep 3,900 39 19 Goat 2,900 29 14 Camel 24,000 240 118 Cow 14,400 144 71 Cow milk (litre) 104 1.04 0.51 Camel milk (litre) 70 0.70 0.34 Goat milk (litre) 89 0.89 0.44 These prices seem reasonable when are compared with a standard sheep/goat CIF price of US$ 42 per animal in Saudi Arabia or Yemen as indicated in a recent study (para 2.33). When translated to the rangeland, the export parity price per animal is between SoSh 2,800 and 6,100, depending on the exchange rate used. C. Beneficiary Income Levels 5.8 Family incomes are hard to estimate in the absence of surveys which might characterize production systems. Because each agropastoral family engages in a combination of cropping and animal husbandry activities, it is difficult to come up with estimates of incremental production as was done for crop and livestock activities. While pastoral families concentrate on herding they will have herds of varying composition and size, the characteristics of which are still conjectural. Financial returns to the - 45 - different activities are calculated in Annex 4 and the results are shown below: Table 5.5 Financial Returns to Productive Activities Without Project With Project SoSh US$ SoSh US$ Agropastoral Farm 70:200 700 108,200 1,100 Per Cap 10,000 100 15,500 1,550 Per Day 250 2.5 330 3.3 Agropastoral Herd 185,400 1,850 222,100 2,200 Per Cap 26,500 260 31,700 320 Per Day 340 3.4 400 4.0 Pastoral Herd 548,800 5,500 696,500 7,000 Per Cap 78,400 780 99,500 1,000 Per Day 330 3.3 420 4.2 These results should be taken as only indicative, as the data are rough. Home consumption of milk, cereals, and occasional animals is included as income. Returns appear to be well above the going wage of SoSh 150 per day. Family size is estimated at 7 persons, although some surveys have shown family sizes averaging 15 persons. The higher number would reduce per capita earnings, which appear high. Some 1.5 persons per year are considered necessary to care for the agropastoral herd, and 4.5 persons for the pastoral herd. The surveys undertaken in the project will permit a refinement of this analysis. D. Cost Recovery 5.9 To the extent the project is successful in maintaining and increasing current levels of offtake, Government tax revenues will increase. Sales of sheep and goats at local livestock markets are taxed as follows: the buyer pays 15 percent and the seller pays 5 percent on the value of the sale. In addition, if the livestock is exported, Government receives an export tax of 5 percent on the FOB price. Sheep and goats from the Central Rangelands represent 20 and 40 percent respectively of the country's exports of these animals (para 2.35). If livestock exports grow at only 1 percent per annum from the 1985-87 levels, the additional revenues generated from increased offtake from the project should cover recurrent cost requirements after the project investment period has finalized (Annex 4, Table 8). As donor disbursements for local expenditures decline, the Government capacity to absorb them will increase, as tax revenues from livestock sales go up. 5.10 An objective under the project is to create RLAs capable of maintaining project infrastructure (para 4.12). At present pastoralists pay for water from boreholes and burkaads (para 2.9). Under the extension component, RLAs would be encouraged to take over the administration of the - 46 - water points (dugouts, boreholes) constructed under both phases of the project, and to charge suifficient to cover operation and maintenance costs. Current borehole water charges of SoSh 3.0 per camel, SoSh 2.0 per cow or bullock, and SoSh 0.5 per sheep or goat are adequate to cover the cost of administering and maintaining a water point. Assurances were given that charges adequate to cover maintenance requiremente -ill be assessed for the use of water from dugouts and boreholes constructed under the project VI. BENEFITS, JUSTIFICATION AND RISK 6.1 The main benefits from this project will come from the reduced degradation of the rangelands. This stabilization will be brought about through several efforts. First, improved range management practices and the gradual introduction of reserves of different kinds. Second, research into rangeland production factors (vegetation, climate, soils, herd dynamics, human population dynamics and characteristics) will permit the identification of further measures to increase sustainable productivity, and or reduce erosion of natural resources and improve living standards. Third, organization of pastoralists would improve management and maintenance of common range and water resources. Fourth, improved NRA/CRDP control and management would limit exploitative practices such as charcoal production, wood harvesting for construction, and private enclosure of rangeland. Finally, CRDP actions to stabilize dtuies, plant trees, grow forage, and disseminate improved, less erosive cultivation practices would prevent further erosion. The impact from these activities has not been quantified. The effect of these activities is difficult to measure since it takes place gradually over long periods and can not be substantiated by reliable data. The productive returns from interventions in animal health, crop production, and water distribution have been modeled to derive an estimate of econo:ic benefits. A. Economic Analysis 6.2 Returns from the following improvements have been quantified in an effort to portray the minimum conditions under which a 10 percent rate of return could be attained: Mi) increased productivity from agropastoral cropping in the agroclimatically more advantaged South and Southeast of the project area; (ii) improved productivity from sheep and goat herds in agropastoral areas and in purely pastoral areas, resulting from minimal improvements in animal health; and (iii) enhanced nutrition in sheep and goat herds due to the availability of additional water and pasture in the first months of the dry season, associated with dugout construction activities. The critical production assumptions have ueen discussed in paras 5.1 - 5.4. It should be noted that the returns to animal health activities do not include the treatment of camels and cattle for trypanosomiasis and other diseases, for lack of adequate data. 6.3 The economic analysis was undertaken in constant March 1988 prices. A shadow exchange rate of SoSh 203 to the US dollar was applied to traded - 47 - commodities, yielding a Standard Conversion Factor of 0.5. Sheep and goat output was valued CIF Saudi Arabia/Yemen and translated back to the Central Rangelands on an export parity basis. Sheep and goat prices were projected to rise along the trends forecast by the Bank in its Half Yearly Forecast, published in January 1988. The output of sorghum was priced on an export parity basis, assuming export to a neighboring African country. Prices and real price trends were taken from the Bank forecasts mentioned previously. Milk was valued at the local trice of SoSh 70 per litre, USS 0.34 per litre at the shadow exchange rate. Labor was valued at the market wage of SoSh 150 per day. Farm costs included the cost of tools for farming, occasional hired labor, and medication and mineral supplements for the livestock herds. All of these costs were included when incremental benefit streams were derived (Annex 4). 6.4 Off farm costs included all project investment costs with the exception of the Systems Investigation and Monitoring, and Conservation components. These two components, whose costs represent 23 percent of total project costs, are justified by their research and conservation objectives. The Project Management and Training components were adjusted downward 23 percent to reflect the overhead requirements of the two components mentioned abcve. All remaining project costs, including physical contingencies, were adjusted to reflect the value of traded items. Recurrent costs equal to 50 percent of the recurrent costs incurred in Year 6 were applied to the remaining 19 years of the 25-year stream. This figure provides an estimate of the continued effort needed to maintain project benefits. 6.5 The economic rate of return of 10 percent could be attained if three conditions hold. First, at least 10,500 farmers need to adopt the improved agropastoral practices. The efforts in extension, trials, and seed multiplication under the project should achieve this result. Second, a minimum of 1,530 sheep and goat herds must adopt the improved animal health practices put forward under the project. This represents some 260,000 animals -- less than 3 percent of the sheep and goats in the project area, an attainable target. Third, the utilization of at least 15 percent of the project area must be improved. This improvement will take place through the strategic location of new temporary water points, and also appears attainable. B. Non-quantifiable Benefits 6.6 In addition to the benefits mentioned in paras 6.1 and 6.2, the project will generate further important but unquantifiable benefits to the country. These include: (i) clarification of the environmental situation in the Central Rangelands and of the dangers of overuse and desertification; (ii) furthering understanding of the interaction among pastoralists, range resources, and livestock, and identifying areas for governmental intervention to improve productivity, living standards, and sustainability of production; - 48 - (iii) conservation of endangered species of wildlife and plants and development of wildlife canservation activities in Somalia; (iv) testing of an environmental monitoring system which, if effective, may be extended to other rangelands areas; (v) improvement of urban areas and villages through tree planting, shelter belt establishment, and containment of incipient or encroaching sand dunes; and (vi) establishment of the prevalence of livestock disease through continued epidemiological studies. C. Risks and Sensitivity Analysis 6.7 There is a risk that the production benefits foreseen in this evaluation will not materialize if implementation mechanisms are slowed, and the project is unable to meet minimum assistance levels for animal health, agropastoral activities, and water development. There is also the risk that adoption of project proposals by pastoralists will not proceed as quickly as planned. Project targets are based on the implementation capacity demonstrated in the first phase, and are achievable. Many of the technologies to be used have been tested under the first phase. The capacity of the project orgarization will be strengthened to carry out the proposed plan and obtain the projected results. The effect of variations in the cost and benefit streams on the economic rate of return is outlined below. Table 6.1 Economic Rate of Return Baseline 10X Costs up 20 Z 7? Costs down 20 3 14? Benefits up 20 Z : 13 Z Benefits down 20 o : 7X Benefits down 50 X : 0X 6.8 Production benefits also would be affected if the Government or the pastoralists were unable to maintain the services needed to secure benefits beyond the project investment period. The profitability of the proposed interventions in cultivation, water development, and animal health are expected to motivate enough private support and maintenance to sustain the projected benefit stream. Although the availability and pricing of foreign exchange will affect the availability of key veterinary inputs, the adjustment process initiated by the Governhient in the mid-1980s should allow for adequate supplies and incentives for the livestock sector. 6.9 The attainment of key environmental and conservation objectives could be negatively affected by a proliferation of permanent water sources and an acute increase in cultivation and livestock numbers. The continued presence of the project regulatory structure and constant monitoring of - 49 - changes in ecological characteristics will control for phenomena which threaten the sustainable productivity and human carrying capacity of the rangelands. VII. AGREEMENTS TO BE REACHED A. General Conditions 7.1 The following agreements were reached at negotiations: (a) adequate local funds will be provided to cover Government's share of local costs (para 3.23); (b) procurement of IDA financed items will be undertaken according to procedures outlined in paras 3.27 and 3.28; and internationally recruited staff will be selected according to IDA Guidelines (para 3.29); (c) physical and financial records will be maintained as set forth in para 3.33; audits of the project accounts, the Special Account and Statements of Expenditure will be provided within 6 months of the close of the fiscal year (para 3.33); (d) an adequate number of female extension agents will be hired (para 3.34); (e) a Project Steering Committee will be maintained as indicated in para 4.6; (f) no dugouts or boreholes will be constructed in the project area until agreed by Project Management after surveys and incorporation in the District Management Plan (para 4.10); (g) the RLA Development Fund be utilized as indicated (para 4.13); (h) veterinary drugs financed from the project revolving fund will be sold at wholesale free market prices (para 4.20); (i) the project training program will be administered as indicated in para 4.22; (j) adequate fuel will be made available, and in the event supplies are short, the project is authorized to import its own requirements directly (para 4.23); (k) an annual physical audit on the operation of project vehicles will be undertaken as indicated in para 4.24; (1) salaries for locally hired staff will be adjusted to maintain their purchasing power, and there will be a ceiling on the hiring of new staff (para 4.25); - 50 - (m) quarterly fuel and shilling operating budgets will be prepared, and the preliminary draft of the annual shilling operating budget will be submitted to IDA by October 30 of each year (para 4.29); (n) that six month progress reports be provided (para 4.30); (o) that water charges adequate to cover maintenance requirements be assessed by project completion. B. Dated Covenants 7.2 Agreement was reached that: (a) by June 30, 1989, SoSh 50 million will have been paid into the project account (para 3.23); (b) by June 30, 1989 the project audit reports for fiscal years 1986 and 1987 have been provided to IDA (para 3.33); (c) by June 30, 1989, a Project Management Committee will be established (para 4.5); id) by June 30, 1989, satisfactory rules for administering the veterinary drug fund had been submitted to IDA (para 4.20); (e) by June 30, 1989 a satisfactory plan for a Training Facility in Bulo Burti district had been submitted to IDA (para 4.22); (f) by December 31, 1989 the revised salary structure agreed at appraisal had been put in place (para 4.25); and (g) by March 31, 1992, a Mid Term review report be provided to IDA (para 4.30). C. Condition of Credit Effectiveness 7.3 Agreement was reached that prior to credit effectiveness: (a) auditors have been hired (para 3.33); (b) the ADF loan effectiveness conditions be met (para 3.23); 7.4 With the above assurances and conditions the project is suitable for an IDA credit of SDR 14.7 (US$ 19.0 million equivalent) on standard IDA terms with 40 years maturity. -51 - Annex I SOMALIA CENTRAL RANGELANDS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROJECT, PHASE II Estimated Schedule of Disbursements (USS million equivalent) IDA Quarter Quarterly Fiscal Year Ending Disbursements Cumulative Total IDA ADB IDA ADB 1989 September 1988 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 December 1988 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 March 1989 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 June 1989 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.1 1990 September 1989 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.2 December 1989 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.4 March 1990 0.7 0.4 0.3 1.7 0.7 June 1990 0.8 0.5 0.3 2.2 1.0 1991 September 1990 0.9 0.5 0.4 2.7 1.4 December 1990 1.0 0.6 0.4 3.3 1.8 March 1991 1.2 0.7 0.5 4.0 2.3 June 199i 1.2 0.7 0.5 4.7 2.8 1992 September 1991 1.2 0.7 0.5 5.4 3.3 December 1991 1.3 0.7 0.6 6.1 3.9 March 1992 1.4 0.8 0.6 6.9 4.5 June 1992 1.6 0.9 0-.7 7.8 5.2 1993 September 1992 1.7 1.0 0.7 8.8 5.9 December 1992 2.0 1.3 0.7 10.1 6.6 March 1993 2.1 1.5 0.6 11.6 7.2 June 1993 2.1 1.5 0.6 13.1 7.8 1994 September 1993 1.5 1.0 0.5 14.1 8.3 December 1993 1.5 1.0 0.5 15.1 8.8 March 1994 1.2 0.8 0.4 15.9 9.2 June 1994 1.2 0.8 0.4 16.7 9.6 1995 September 1994 1.1 0.7 0.4 17.4 10.0 December 2/ 1994 1.0 0.6 0.4 18.0 10.4 March 1995 0.8 0.5 0.3 18.5 10.7 June 1/ 1995 0.8 0.5 0.3 19.0 11.0 ------------------------------..------------ 1/ Project Closing Dates June 30, 1995. 21 Project Closing Dates December 31, 1994. - 52 - Annex 2 SOMALIA CENTRAL RANGELANDS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROJECT, PHASE II Inflation and Exchange Rate Assumptions 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 International Inflation (Z) 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Domestic Inflation (1) 43.0 33.0 28.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 Constant Purchasing Parity Exchange Rate 119.7 159.3 201.3 244.6 291.7 347.8 414.6 Annex 3 Table 1 (1) SOMALIA CENTRAL RANGELANDS RESEARCH ANO OEVELOPMENT PROJECT. PHASE It SUMARY ACCOUNTS COST SUMMARY ISO. SH I0001 (USS 0001 I Total S Total S foreign Base S Foreign Bass Local foreign Total Exchange Costs Local Foreign Total Exchange Costs 1. INVESTMENT COSTS A. CIVIL NORMS 61.747.5 349,902.5 411,650.0 85 IS 617 5 3.499.0 4, 116.5 85 IS B. VEHICLES/EQUIPMENT 33. 000.8 627? 014.7 660. 015.5 95 23 330 0 6. 270. 1 6. 600.2 95 23 C. TECHNICAL ASSTANCE AND STUDIES - 798. 295.0 798,295.0 100 28 - 7,983.0 7.983.0 tOO 28 Total INVESTMENT COSTS 94,748.3 1.t 75. 212. 2 1.869.960.5 95 67 947.5 ;. 752. T8.699. B 95 67 Physical Contingtncies 7,824.8 106,255.7 114.080.5 93 4 78.2 1.062.6 1, 140.8 93 4 Price Contingencies 150,000.7 2.938.264.8 3.088.265.5 95 110 98.9 1,928.4 2.027.3 95 7 Total INCLUOING CONTINGENCIES 252.513.7 4.819.732.8 . 072. 306. 5 95 180 1. 124.6 20. 743. 1 21.867.7 95 78 11. RECURRENT COSTS A. SALARIES 140.487.0 - 140.487.0 - 5 1.404. 9 - 1.404.9 - 5 S. ALLOANCES/PEROIEMS 267. 765.0 - 267.765.0 - 10 2. 677. 7 - 2, 677. 7 to C. FUEL/VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS 22,728.6 128.795.4 151.524.0 85 5 227.3 1,288.0 1,515.2 85 5 *. OTHEQP 0DERATIN1i (tlqTq 114. 669. 5 267. 562. 1 382.231.5 70 14 1. 146.7 2,675.6 3,822.3 70 14 Total RECURRENT COSTS 545.650. 1 396,357.5 942. 007.5 42 33 5. 456 5 3,963.6 9,420. 1 42 33 Physical Contingencies 28.418.9 26.257.6 54.676.6 48 2 284.2 262.6 546.8 48 2 Price Contingencies t.330.071.7 934,317.3 2.264.389.0 41 81 851.3 599.1 1.450.4 41 5 lotal INCLUDING CONTINGENCIES 1.904,100.7 1,356.932.4 3.261.073.1 42 116 6.592 0 4.825.2 11,417.3 42 ;I =::::: ::- :::======= z======== ===:zzz ::z:z :==== == ===- == ====== == z=-=:= -z=:: Total BASELINE COSTS 640,398.3 2.171.569.7 2.811.968.0 77 100 6.404.0 2-. Ii.7 28,119.7 77 100 Physical Contingencies 36.243.7 132,513.4 168.757.1 79 6 362 4 1.325.1 1.687 6 79 6 Price Contingencies 1,480.072.4 3.872.582.1 5.352.654.5 72 190 950.2 2,527.5 3.477.7 73 12 Total PROJECT COSTS 2, 156,714.4 6, 176,665. 1 8.333.379.6 74 296 7,716.6 25.568.4 33.285.0 77 118 August 30. 1988 14: 19 August 30, 1988 14: 19 -Table 1 (2) CENTRL NMKMau RKSEAS Of OEVELOAPENF PROJECT. PHASE 11 PrOect Coewta by letr Totals Including Continpncies (SO. SNI 000 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total ;s:a:n;;t ::=t::ste== :: = S;z:tsn ss:ss;st:n;t:swt t.
Группа Всемирного банка · Staff Appraisal Report
Somalia - Central Rangelands Research and Development Project : Phase II
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