Cameroon - Population growth and land resources : a case study

PUN Technical Note 85-19b CAMEROON: POPULATION GROWTH AND IAN]) RESOURCES A Case Study by Lauren A. Chester February 19815 Population, Haalth and Nutrition Department World Bank The Woirld Bank does not accept responsibility for the views expressed herein which are those of the authior(s) and should not be attributed to the World Baiik or to its affiliated organizations. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are the results of -;'search supported by the: Bank; they do not necessarily reapresent official policy of the Bank. The designations employed, the presentation of material, and any maps used iTI this document are solel.y for the convenience of the reader and do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsover oit the part of the World Bank or its affiliates concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delirlitatic,ns of its boundaries, or na,tional affiliation.  PHN Technical Note 85-19b CA&EROON: POPULATION GROWTU AND LAND RESOURCES A B S T' R A C T This paper was prepared as background to an overview paper examining the consequences of rapid pyopulation growth on labor productivity in agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa (see Technical Note No. 85-19a). It is one of several case studies prepazed (studies on Sudan and Nigeria are forthcoming). The paper reviews Cameroon's demographic situation, looks at the many different components involved in agricultural production (land availability, labor, land laws, input systems, etc.) and the implications of continued rapid population growth for agricultural production. It "_ also examines fuelwood supplies and consumption, and whether sufficient resources exist to meet the future demands of a growing population without deforestation. Cameroon is one of sub-Saharan Africa's wealthiest countries, with a GNP per capita of US$810 in 1984. The country's vast resources and ecological diversity are the main reasons for its strong performance. It produces a wide variety of agricultural products, has large unexploited forestry reserves, considerable livestock-raising potential, and oil, n+atural gas, hydroelectric and mineral resources. Land is abundant, but less than one-fifth of potentially cultivable land is currenLly being cropped. The population of Cameroon was estimated to be 10 million at the end of 1985. It is characterized by high and increasing fertiiity, declining mortality and an uneven geographical distribution. Nearly 40 percent of the poptulation is urban; the proportion of urban dwellers is expected to increase to at least 60 percent by the year 2000. Given its considerable natural resources, Cameroon has the potential to support a certain increase in population with adequate planning. However, it has begun to experience problems with land degradation and deforestation in areas where demand on the resources has become excessive. This implies that the country's supporting capacity and its ability to maintairn (or improve) the present standard of living may dim nish quickly if some action in the areas of populotion policy and land management is not taken. By addressing these problems now, Cameroon may be able to ward off :-erious problems as it moves into the next century. Reducing the rapid rate of population growth, stemming rural-to-urban migration and encouraging settlement in less densely populated regions would help to redistribute demand and alleviate some of the pressures on currently over-exploited resources. This will require careful management of resources, including job-creation in rural areas, and commitment to improving transportation, output prices, research and extension service systems as well. as population education and family planning service avai.lability. Prepared by: Lauren A. Chester Populationp Health and Nutrition Department February 1986  Acknowledgment I 'w,ould like to thank Ms. Francoise Delannoy (West Africa Country Programs Department) for her frequent and helpful comments on this work while it was in progress. I would also like to thank Ms. Teresa J. Ho (Population, Health and Nutrition Department) for her comments on earlier drafts.  CAMEROON: POPULATION GROWTH AND LAND RESOUJRCES Table of Contents Page No. I. RESOURCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .........1 II. DEMOGRAPHIC CIARACTERISTICS OF CAMEROON .2 1. Prospects for Future Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . ..3 2. Population Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..4 3. Land Features and Population.. . . . . . . . . . . . ..5 4. Population Movement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 I:I. DIMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH FOR AGRICULTURE . . . . 10 1. Production Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 2. Labor Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 3. Land Tenure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 4. Inputs.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 5. Extension Service and Credit Availability . . . . . . 22 6. Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . ...... . . . . .. 22 7. Adjustments in Agriculture Needed to Cope with Rapid Population Growth.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 IV. IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH FOR FUELWOOD SUPPLY AND DENAND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 1. Fuelwood Availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2. Adjustments Needed to Meet the Growing Demand for Fuel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 V. CONCLUSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29  1,. Resources Cameroon is one of sub-Saharan Africa's wealthiest countries: 1984 GNP? per capita was $810. The country's vast resources and ecological diversity are the main reasons for its good performance. Cameroon's real output growth has accelerated over time with the annual GDP irncrease rising from 4.5% (1971-76) to 8.6% in, .he period when oil production began (1976-81). Even before the onset of oil production it was widely recognized as exceptional amongst African countries, enjoying a strong agricultural sector. near self-sufficiency in food, a high credit standing and unusual political and social stability. In 1984, it was regarded as having considerable economic potential given its ability to produce a wide variety of agricultural products, its large, unexploited forestry reserves, considerable livestock-raising potential, and natural gas, hydroelectric and mineral resources. Cameroon covers an area of 475,000 km2. Land is abundant, but less than one-fifth of potentially cultivable land is currently being cropped. Its ecological diversity enables production of a wide variety of agricultural products. Until 1978 (which marks the advent of oil production), agriculture was the mainstay of the economy accounting for most foreign exchange earnings (71% of total export value) and 32% of GDP. Its share has declined since then: in 1983 agriculture (including fishery and forestry) represented 25% of exports and 24% of the GDP. During the period 1978-82, it is estimated that total agricultural production may have increased by 3.5%-4.0%. Agriculture will likely regain proninence in the Cameroon-an economy as oil revenues decline. 1/ 1/ J. English, "Cameroon - Agricultural Sector Strategy Paper," Draft, 1985.  - 2 - Forest reserves are plentiful: 67% of the total land area is forest or woodland. Dense tropical forest covers 17.5 million ha, making it one of the largest reserves in the world. Cameroon also has extensive mineral and oil resources; it became an oil producer in 1978. Oil production soon1 attained a dominant position in total exports (63% in 1982) and accounted for a significant portion of the total GDP in 1981 (11%).2/ Oil production is expected to peak in the mid 1980's at 7.6 million tons, and slowly decline thereafter until supplies are exhausted by the mid 1990's. II. Demographic Characteristics of Cameroon The population of Cameroon was estimated to be 10 million at the end of 1985. It is characterized by high and increasing fertility, declining mortality and an uneven geographical-distribution of the populatioii. In 1983, the crude birth rate was 46 per 1,000 and the total fertility rate was 6.5; the crude death rate was 15 per 1,000 and the infant mortality rate was 116 per 1,000 live births. The avoerage annual rate of population growth has been increasing and is now 3.2%. Life expectancy at birth is about 54 years. Nearly 40% of the population is urban. The potential for continued rapid population growth--nearly a doubling of the population by the year 2000--is great. The age structure of the population has been growing increasingly younger: in 1980, 44% of the population was under age 15 and 4% age 65 and over; the dependency ratio was 91. This trend will continue with further increases in fertility and declines in mortality. 2/ West Africa Regional Projects Department, 1983. 3/ Population, Health and Nutrition Department, 1984.  - 3- 1. Prospects f(or Future Growth. Projections. Trends in mortality, fertility and migration will determine the extent and rate