Rwanda - Third Education Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY GP;? /=<3-gW Report No. 5805-RW STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT RWANDESE REPUBLIC A THIRD EDUCATION PROJECT March 19, 1986 Education and Manpower Development Division Eastern and Southern Africa Regional Office I This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS CURRENCY UNIT - RWANDA FRANCS (RvF) RwF 100 = US$ 1.093 (March 1986) US$ 1.00 = RwF 91.5 (March 1986) RwF 100 = SDR 0.946 SDR 1.00 = RwF 105.75 SDR 1.00 = US$ 1.15584 US$ 1.00 = SDR 0.865 MEASURES 1 meter = 3.28 feet 1 kilometer = 0.62 mile 1 square kilometer = 0.39 square mile 1 hectare = 2.47 acres RWANDESE REPUBLIC FISCAL YEAR January 1 to December 31 School Year September to July GLOSSARY BPERAI Bureau pEdagogique de I'enseignement primaire et CERAI Curriculum Center for Primary Education and CERAI BPES Bureau pedagogique de l'enseignement secondaire - Curriculum Center for Secondary Education CERAI Centres d'enseignement rural et artisanal integre - Centers for Integrated Rural and Artisanal Education ETO Ecole technique off icielle - technical secondary school GDP Gross Domestic Product ILO International Labor Organization IMPRESCO Imprimerie scolaire - School Printshop MINEPRISEC Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education MINESUPRES Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research MINIFIN Ministry of Finance and Economy MINIFOF Ministry of Public Service and Professional Training NBR National Bank of Rwanda - central bank NUR National University of Rwanda NVTB National Vocational Training Board NVTC National Vocational Training Center SFCS-PIU Service de financement et des constructions scolaires - project implementation unit TSS Technical Secondary School UNDP United Nations Development Programme UPE Universal primary education  FOR OFCIAL USE ONLY RWANDESE REPUBLIC APPRAISAL OF A THURM EDUCATION PROJECT Table of Contents Page No. CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY . ........................ ............. . (i)-(ii) BASIC DATA ............. .................................. (iii) I. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN RESOURCES Socio-economic Setting . ................................ 1 Recent Developments and Prospects ...... .............. 2 Human Resources Development ............................ 3 II. THE EDCATION SECTOR AND MAIN ISSUES Background ............................................. 5 The Education and Training System .................... .. 6 Recent Education Developments .... o ..................... 6 Education Finance ...... .. .................................... 9 External Aid .... ...................................... 10 Main Issues . .........* *..... 11 III. EDUCATION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY Experience with Past Lending ........................... 13 Bank Group Support ............... o .................. 14 IV. ThE PROJECT Objectives ............................................ 15 Textbook and Teaching Materials (Supply & Distribution). 16 Institutional Support (Studies/Seminars) ............... 18 Technical Secondary School (TSS) .. ..................... 19 National Vocational Training Center (NVTC) ............. 20 Technical Assistance Summary ........ o .................. 22 Female Participation in the Education System ........... 23 Population Education ................................... 23 Environmental Impact ................................... 23 This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission which visited Rwanda in March, 1985 and comprised Messrs. J. McCabe (Senior Education Planner, Mission Leader), A. Colliou (Deputy Division Chief, Economist), J.C. Laederach (Architect), H. Bartisch (Technical/Vocational Educator, Consultants) and H. Scharrer (Textbook Specialist, Consultant). This document has a rtred ditdbution and may be used by reopients only in the performance of their official duties Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bsnk aLuthoriztion.  Page No. V. PROJECT COSTS AND FINANCIAL PLAN Project Cost ........... *........* .................. . 24 Finsancing Plan .................................... 26 VI. IMPLENTION, PROCUREMENT, DISBURSEMENT AND AUDITING Implementation ............. .............***. *..... .. 27 Procurement ......................... ********.......*0.0.. 29 Disbursement ............... ................. ........ 30 Auditing ..............***********............... ...... 31 VII. BENEFITS AND RISKS Benefits ............................................... 31 Risks ................. .. 32 VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................... 33 ANNEXES Annex 1 Charts, Tables and Schedules Chart 1 - MINEPRISEC Education System 1985 Chart 2 - Education Pyramld 1984 Chart 3 - MINEPRISEC Organization Chart chart 4 - HINESUPRES Organization Chart Chart 5 - MINIFOP Organization Chart Chart 6 - Chart Showing MINIFOP/NVTC Relationship Table 1 - Comparative Education Indicators Table 2 - Supply of Middle Level Industrial Manpower from Technical Secondary Schools Table 3 - Annual Supply and Demand for Middle Level Industrial Manpower by 1992 Table 4 - Enrollment Growth in Formal Education 1979-1984 Table 5 - Government Expenditures on Education Table 6 - Summary of Estimated Project Costs Schedule 1 - Technical Assistance Program Schedule 2 - Implementation Schedule 3 - Disbursements Annex 2 - Textbook/Education Materials Distribution System Annex 3 - S.elected Documents and Data Available in the Project File MAP - IBRD No. 19109  (i) RWANDESE REPUBLIC THIRD EDUCATION PROJECT Credit and Project Sumary Borrower: Rwandese Republic Beneficiaries: Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education (MINEPRISEC) and Ministry of the Public Service and Professional Training (MINIFOP) Amount: SDR 13.5 million (US$15.6 million equivalent) Terms: Standard IDA Project Description: Objectives: The project is designed to assist the Government in its plan to: (a) improve the quality and efficiency of its primary and post-primary education system through: (i) provisions for the supply and distribution of textbooks and other teaching materials; (ii) the establishment of a self-sustaining textbook/teaching materials replenishment scheme; and (iii) institutional building by strengthening the textbook management and program planning of MINEPRISEC and MINIFOP through technical assistance; and (b) alleviate the shortages of critically needed manpower by provisions for: (i) a new technical secondary school (270 places); and (ii) a new national vocational training center (120 places with 240 training stations). Components: (a) Textbook/teaching Materials. Supply and distribution of textbooks and distribution of teaching materials. Included would be the introduction of a self-sustaining textbook/teaching materials replenishment scheme. (b) Technical Secondary School (TSS) and National Vocational Training Center (NVTC). Establishment of a TSS of 270 places to train engineering technicians and an NVTC of 120 places with 240 training stations to train skilled workers. (c) Institution building. Strengthen planning, management and training capacity in MINEPRISEC and HINIFOP through provision for about 30 staff-years of technical assistance and about 46 staff-years of fellowship training.  (il) Benefits: The project's main benefits include: (a) improving educational quality through increasing provision of textbooks for about one million students, providing about 20,000 sets of teaching manuals and introducing student book-usage fees to render this service self-sustaining; (b) increasing yearly output of much-needed engineering technicians and skilled workers by 36 and 60, respectively and vocational training by about 240; and (c) improving the institutional performance of NINEPRISEC and MINIFOP. Risks: Two risks derive from questions on management and implementation capacity. These would be minimized through recruitment of experienced specialists to launch the institutes/services concerned and the training of Rwandese counterparts to succeed them. Estimated Costs: ----US$ Million - Local Foreign Total (a) Textbook/Teaching Materials 1.0 3.6 4.6 (b) Technical Secondary School 1.8 3.5 5.3 (c) National Vocational Training Center 1.0 2.6 3.6 (d) Institutional Support 0.3 0.9 1.2 Total Base Cost (March 1986) 4.1 10.6 14.7 Physical Contingencies 0.3 0.6 0.9 Price Contingencies 1.0 2.4 3.4 Total Project Cost 5.4 a/ 13.6 19.0 Financing Plan: ----US$ Million--- Local Foreign Total IDA 3.3 12.3 15.6 Government 2.1 - 2.1 Sub-total 5.4 12.3 17.7 UNDP - 1.3 1.3 Total 5.4 a/ 13.6 19.0 Estimated Disbursements - -U~~~~S$ Million----- IDA FY 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Annual 1.0 4.0 5.4 3.6 1.2 0.4 Cumulative 1.0 5.0 10.4 14.0 15.2 15.6 Economic Rate of Return: Not applicable a/ of which US$1.3 million in taxes and duties.  (iii) RWANDESE REPUBLIC THIRD EDUCATION PROJECT BASIC DATA 1/ POPULATION Area 26,340 km2 Population: Total 5.9 mlllion Rural (Z of total) 95% Current growth rate p.a. 3.7% Density/km2 arable land 400 GNP per capita (1983) US$270 Literacy rate (Gov.t estim. 1982) 37Z EDUCATION Establishments Enrollments Z Girls Primary (G1-8) 1,570 761,955 48 Post-primary (CERAI, G9-11) 304 23,474 46 Secondary (G9-14): 73 14,761 34 General (5,488) (19) Technical (3,840) (40) Teacher Training (5,433) (45) University: Rwanda 2 1,368 16 Abroad 600 Enrollment Students per Z Teachers Ratio (Gross) Teacber Qualified Primary 65 54 2/ 59 Post-primary ) 15 67 Secondary ) 5 16 70 University 0.4 5 23 EDUCATIONAL EXPENDITURES (Actual 1983) Recurrent Capital (RvF million) (RwF million) Primary and Secondary 3910.2 236.1 Higher 581.1 75.8 Total 4491.3 311.9 Z of Gov.t Total 27.4% 11.8% Total Expenditures (Recurrent and Capital) on Education as Z GNP 3.6% 1/ 1983/1984 unless otherwise stated 2/ Average class size of about 40 because part of the teachers for G1-3 teach two shifts.  I. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND HUMAN RESOURCES Socio-Economic Setting 1.01 Rwanda's salient characteristics include: (a) its small size (26,000 km2); (b) a landlocked location (surrounded by Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi and Zaire); (c) an annual population growth rate of 3.7 percent (ranking among the highest in the world); (d) an extremely high population density of 210 persons/km2 (the third highest of low income countries following Bangladesh and Sri Lanka); (e) hilly terrain and high average altitude; (f) lack of natural resources (including shortage of arable land with a population density in terms of agricultural land of about 400 persons/km2); (g) underdeveloped physical and institutional infrastructures; and (h) a very low level of development as measured by a variety of social as well as economic indicators (per capita income of US$270 in 1983, life expectancy at birth of 46 years and an adult literacy rate of 37 percent). All of these factors have had an important bearing on the country's development in the recent past, and all continue to influence importantly Rwanda's development strategy and prospects for future growth. 1.02 Given its current rapid growth, Rwanda's population of 5.9 million in 1984 is expected to nearly double by the year 2000. This has major implications for the country's socio-economic development. Already over 45 percent of the population is below 15 years of age. Also, while 95 percent of the population live in rural areas engaged mainly in subsistence agriculture, the balance between food production and population is becoming more and more precarious. In addition, urban growth, which has averaged around six percent per annum over the past decade, is expected to accelerate. 1.03 Apart from a few minerals (mainly cassiterite), which account for 15 percent of exports but as little as one percent of gross domestic product (GDP), cultivable land is the only natural resource. As a result, agriculture plays a predominant role in the economy, contributing about half of GDP and three-quarters of export earnings, of which coffee is by far the most important source. Agriculture development is hampered by scarcity of potentially arable land and decreasing productivity (as a result of soil degradation and increased cultivation of marginal lands). Rwanda 's manufacturing base is narrow, and growth of modern manufacturing is limited by the small size of the market and by the lack of raw materials, marketing facilities, entrepreneurial skills and skilled manpower. The country's external trade is severely affected by high transportation costs (1,700 km by road to Mombasa, the nearest port) and dependence on neighboring countries for port facilities. 1.04 Rwanda's per capita income of about US$270 in 1983 is among the lowest in the world, and Rwanda is classified by the United Nations as a least-developed country. With the exception of the small modern sector, income distribution is relatively even. It has been estimated 1t that within the rural sector (accounting for 95 percent of the population and with family farms of average size one hectare) between the tenth and 1/ Agricultural Sector Review, World Bank Report No. 1377-RW, June 1977, p.5  - 2 - ninety-fifth percentile groups. income ratios are about three to five, compared to ratios of about ten to one in many other African countries. The fact is that the vast majority of Rwandese live at or below the poverty level. Health conditions are also very poor as illustrated by the following indicators: a crude death rate of 20 per thousand population; an infant mortality rate of 22 percent, and ratios of over 31,000 persons per physician and nearly 10,000 per nurse. As a result of a shift to high-yield but low-protein crops, there has also been an increase in malnutrition. Recent Developments and Prospects 1.05 Despite these adverse structural characteristics, Rwanda has attempted with a large measure of success to satisfy its subsistence needs and to make important advances in agriculture, education, health and small-scale industry. These achievements have been facilitated by the cultural and social cohesion of its people, political stability, and overall sound economic management. During the period of 1977-82, the rate of growth of GDP, in real terms, averaged about five percent per annum, reflecting sustained good performance by most sectors (except those engaged in production for export); this achievement was in part attributable to favorable external factors (good weather and favorable terms of trade). Since 1982, and closely related to the advent of international recession, economic growth has slowed down (to less than three percent per annum) and the fiscal situation has deteriorated. While the budget surpluses incurred during 1978-80 averaged 6 percent of GDP (partly due to high coffee prices and related high revenues), sharp declines in revenues from coffee export taxes, together with increases in current outlays (especially general wage increase granted in September 1980 and introduction of the 1977 education reform) have led to overall budgetary deficits equivalent to two percent of GDP in both 1982 and 1983. 1.06 In the Third Development Plan 1982-86, the Government has stated four priority objectives for economic and social development: (a) satisfying the population's food needs; (b) improving utilization of human resources through increased employment and more relevant education/training; (c) increasing living standards by more widespread access to improved health care and social services; and (d) improving Rwanda's external position through better transport links and measures to strengthen the balance-of-payments. In addition, to these objectives, which had already been identified in the Second Development Plan 1977-81, the Third Development Plan reflects positive changes in Government's demographic policy which advanced from an analysis of the problem to the development of specific objectives. 1.07 Some progress has been achieved in the implementation of the objectives of the Third Development Plan. While data are rather unreliable, there is evidence that in the last two years, total food production grew, on average, by about three percent annually. The Goverment has also succeeded in expanding the education system and in investing in transport links. Also, relatively large amounts of external aid have been mobilized. The success of Government efforts in pursuing the Plan's object'ves has however, been limited by the country's structural constraints (para. 1.01), lack of skilled personnel and insufficiency of domestic financial resources.  - 3 - 1.08 In the face of severe structural and financial constraints, the growth of GDP in the next few years is expected at best to be barely above that of population. As Rwanda in the near term cannot diversify its traditional exports, which are facing unfavorable price prospects, imports might have to be curtailed. At the same time, as the Government depends upon foreign trade taxation for half its revenues, the growing imbalance between Government revenues and expenditures is bound to be accentuated. This, in turn might force the reduction of current expenditures. While short-term actions will have to be taken to resolve those imbalances, the three priority tasks for Rwanda will remain to increase agricultural productivity, contain population growth and develop human resources at the maximum pace permitted by physical and financial constraints. Human Resources Development 1.09 Given the lack of natural resources, the current scarcity of qualified personnel, high illiteracy rate and poor health conditions (para. 1.04), the development of human resources remains key to the socio-economic development of Rwanda. The Government, recognizing this, has expanded gradually its expenditures in education, which reached a relatively high level of 28 percent of total Government current expenditures in 1984. Significant efforts have also been made through investment projects. Investment expenditures in education peaked at a level of about 20 percent of total Government capital expenditures in 1980. Though that rroportion has declined to a level of about eight percent in 1984, the total external aid allocated to on-going education projects (which is not included in the Government's capital budget) has remained important: it amounted to about US$80 million equivalent in early 1985 lnd another US$50 million was being considered for future education projects. 1.10 On-going investments are in line with the overall priorities of the Third Development Plan (para. 1.06). First, most of them aim at alleviating the shortages of trained personnel, which constitute one of the most serious constraints to socio-economic development. Second, by increasing general participation in education (in particular, for women), they represent the mDst effective action towards containing rapid population growth. Third, by raising the level of education of future farmers, they are bound to increase agricultural productivity. The last two linkages have been amply demonstrated through experience in other countries. 1.11 Reliable, up-to-date information on human resources in Rwanda is not available and statistics on the labor force and employment are not regularly collected. The most recent data were collected in 1981 by an International Labor Organization (ILO) mission in Rwanda, and published in a 1984 report.2/ The preliminary results of this study have been incorporated in the Third Plan. Ft-am the 1978 census, it is estimated that 93 percent of a total labor force of 2.7 million people are employed in the agricultural sector, with only three percent in industry and four percent 2/ 'Le Defi de l'Emploi pour le Rwanda, ILO, 1984 (The Employment Challenge for Rwanda)  in services. The projections made in the Third Development Plan based on the dynamics of population growth show a net addition yearly of 44,000 persons to the labor force; the Plan proposes to meet this increase through the annual increase of 27,000 additional jobs in agriculture and 17,000 in the non-agricultural sector (13,000 in the modern sector and 4,000 on partial employment). However, with a current underemployment rate estimated at 30 percent, the agricultural sector can hardly be expected to effectively absorb such large numbers; the labor absorption capacity of the modern sector is also limited (a total of only 25,000 jobs were created from 1977 to 19Z1). This highlights the need for agricultural intensification and labor-intensive small-scale industrialization as well as urgent efforts on containment of population growth. 1.12 Despite this labor surplus, there will continue to be in the medium-term, a shortage of skilled labor. The Third Plan anticipated yearly shortages of 160 professionals and higher technicians (400 required as against 240 output) and over 2,000 middle-level technicians and skilled workers (3,400 required as against 1,400 output). Given the lack of data on the manpower demand side, these figures indicate only an order of magnitude of the skill gaps. Much more detailed analysis is necessary to define training needs. To that effect the Bank Group in its sector work program, is undertaking a -specialized training need study; this study, which started in June 1985 and to be completed in early 1986, should shed light on the relationship between manpower needs and training output in the country. In addition, the proposed project will strengthen the MINIFOP (para. 4.17) through provision of technical assistance; in particular, this assistance should enable the Government to better formulate and implement its manpower training policies. 1.13 Until more precise information is collected and analyzed, the Government is correctly addressing the most obvious skill shortages which are at the levels of middle technicians (A2) and skilled craftsmen (A3). The proposed project would help reduce the gap between supply and demand of such skills related to industrial manpower. Annex 1, T-2 gives a breakdown of the supply of middle-level industrial manpower from existing and proposed technical secondary schools (including the proposed Kibuye Technical School to be established under the project), while Annex 1, T-3 compares supply (including also the Kigali Vocational Training Center proposed under the project) and demand by 1992 under four scenarios (combination of low and high estimates for both supply and demand). It appears that even in one of the extreme scenarios (high estimate for supply of trainees and low estimate for manpower demand), there will remain shortages at A2 levels and near equilibrium at A3 levels (in fact a very slight surplus estimated at five percent of the needs). This analysis is quite conservative as it also assumes that all graduates of technical schools will enter the job market directl1; in reality, a significant number might continue their studies to the University level. In the case of the other extreme scenario (low estimate for supply and high estimate for demand), the supply of A2 would be one third of the needs and that of A3 less than half of the needs. As to quality considerations, the present situation for middle-level industrial many-wer is characterized by: (a) frequent occurrence of substitution by lowe-; qualification levels; (b) generally unsatisfactory level of occupational competence due to a lack of upgrading training facilities; and (c) supply by existing training inetitutions of a limited and rather traditional range of specializations.  - 5 - 1.14 The curricula of both the Kibuye Technical School and the Kigali Vocational Training Center have also been designed to meet some of the most pressing needs within the A2 and A3 levels. The Kibuye Technical School will in particular offer training in new, but urgently needed specializations such as heavy duty mechanics and plant installation maintenance and repair. The Kigali Vocational Training Center on the other hand will contribute to a continuous upgrading of the existing work force and its programs will be prepared in close collaboration with the main users, particularly industrial employers. II. THE EDUCATION SECTOR AND MAIN ISSUES Background 2.01 To redress the mismatch between the Rwandese education and training system and perceived national needs, major reforms included in the Second Development Plan 1977-1981 were implemented in 1979. These reforms had three basic objectives: (a) primary curricula reform emphasizing rural/agricultural needs; (b) diversification from academic secondary education; and (c) orientation of higher education towards developmental priorities, including agriculture. Significant structural changes were made in primary and secondary education (Annex 1, C-1 and C-2 show the structure of the education system and the education pyramid). Changes included prolongation of primary education from 6 to 8 years for the 7-14 years' age group with practical subjects' introduction in grades 7-8 in workshop extensions to be built at schools; (b) orientation of 90 percent primary leavers to CERAI (Centres d'Enseignement Rural et Artisanal Integre) of which about 1,300 were planned for pre-vocational training in grades 9-11; and (c) orientation of 10 percent primary leavers to reformed secondary schools grades 9-14. It was also decided to terminate double-shift in primary schools and universal primary education (UPE) was targeted for 1986. 2.02 Enrollment and construction targets proved far too ambitious for the available financial resources, teachers and construction capacity. 3/ However, through commendable community efforts (with support under Credit 567-RI) about 960 workshops were added at primary schools though only 200 CERAI were built. With French support for the BPERAI (Bureau Pfdagogique de 1'Enseignement Primaire et CERAI) and Belgian support for the BPES (Bureau P&dpgogique de l'Enseignement Secondaire) reformed curricula have been practically completed. But introduction of these curricula in schools has been hampered, mainly by shortage of qualified teachers and textbooks, estimated to average one set per eight students. The Agriculture Faculty of the National University of Rwanda (NUR) was developed with Canadian assistance but enrollments therein comprise only 10 percent of NUR students. Following the Second Plan experience, the Government (while retaining basic educational objectives) lowered targets in the Third Plan 3/ It is now clear that with present population increase and continuing financial constraints, universal primary education may not be achieved before the end of the century.  - 6 - 1982-1986 to eight percent yearly growtk in primary enrollments,provision of two CERAI per commune and secondary enrollment increase limited to six percent yearly. The double-shift system in primary education was retained and reduction of the illiteracy rate from 63 to 59 percent was also targeted. The Education and Training System 2.03 Since 1981, two ministries have responsibility for education (Annex 1, C-3, C-4) - the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education (MINEPRISEC) and the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research (MINESUPRES). The MINEPRISEC delegates authority to the Inspecteur d'Arrondissement in each of the 10 arrondissements (prefectures), from where school inspection is coordinated. Burgomasters of the 143 communes lead community efforts in school building and maintenance. From modern offices in Kigali, about 1,200 MINEPRISEC personnel administer: (a) about 1,600 primary schools, 300 CERAI and over 70 secondary schools; (b) BPERAI and BPES in separate new buildings in the capital; and (c) the SFCS (Service de Financement et des Constructions Scolaires) and IMkEESCO (Imprimerie Scolaire - School Printshop), both built with support under the First Education Project (Credit 567-RW). Technical assistance mainly for curriculum development and educational planning is provided by about 50 expatriates. Significant cost increases (especially for administration) have occurred since the establishment of the NUR second campus, due mainly to large diseconomies of scale and administrative duplication. There are indications in both ministries of over-staffing and under-management. To replace expatriates, training in educational planning and administration is necessary and being provided by UNDP/UNESCO, and gradual modernization of office technology is required as manual operations in accounting and administration of examinations, information and inventories systems are outdated. Recent Education Developments 2.04 Enrollment growth has continued during 1979-1984 (Annex 1, T-4). However, while primary school enrollment (G1-8) increased by an average eight percent yearly to 762,000, representing 65 percent of the 7-14 years age-group, the admission rate has slowed down. Second-level enrollments (G9-14) also increased by eight percent yearly to 38,200 representing five percent of the 15-20 years age-group, though CERAI (G9-11, pre-vocational) advanced more rapidly at 15 percent yearly as against only one percent yearly for academic secondary (G9-14). 4/ Enrollments in the NUR increased by seven percent yearly to 1,400 students. A closer look is now taken at equity, efficiency and quality at this time for the different levels. 2.05 Primary Education. Enrollment ratios are fairly even among the 10 prefectures, though Kibuye (near Lake Kivu) leads at close to 70 percent and Byumba (north-east) trails at short of 60 percent of the age-group. Over 48 percent of students are female. Women represent over 40 percent of teaching staff and the student/teacher ratio is about 54 (class size is about 40 because some teachers teach two shifts). Attrition and repetition 4/ Reduction from 7 to 6 years' secondary education which was introduced under the reform has influenced slower growth.  rates are very high, averaging about 12 and 14 percent, respectively. Quality is considered low and is mainly attributed to: (a) 41 percent of teachers unqualified; (b) only 12 percent textbook provision (one set per eight students); (c) double-shift system in grades 1-3; and (d) nutritional problems of students. In addition, teaching of workshop subjects in grades 7-8 is generally weak. Admission rate to secondary education for 1984/1985 was about nine percent. 2.06 CERAI. These three-year pre-vocational schools (all day-students) officially combined in 1982 with the church-related girls' schools (Sections Familiales) are beWag developed for equitable distribution among the communes. Girls represent 46 percent of enrollments. Attrition and repetition rates are about one and five percent, respectively. Quality of education is mixed. While buildings and furniture are adequate, lack of equipment and especially textbooks (one set per %Aght students), has a deleterious effect on quality. Student/teacher ratio remains rather low at 15 to one as school size is small; 67 percent of staff are qualified. While the main objective of the CERAI is training for employment in the local milieu, lack of such employment opportunities is becoming a problem. 2.07 Secondary Education. The 73 mainly church-related secondary schools (all boarding: 64 public and nine private) are also small, with average enrollment below 200. They are not equitably distributed and selection made nationwide is frequently faulted as being neither sufficiently merit-based nor geared to fit aptitude to available school courses. Gisenyi (north-west) and Byumba (north-east) have highest and least participation, respectively. Schools have different curricula biases and overall, students take general, primary teacher training and technical courses (including agriculture, commerce, nursing, etc.) in the proportion 37, 37 and 26 percent, respectively and 34 percent of students are girls. Attrition rate is even through the cycle at about five percent p.a. while repetition rate declines from about eight percent in the first to three percent in the sixth year. Quality is also mixed. Teachers (75 percent Rwandese) are almost 70 percent qualified and student/teacher ratio is low at 16. There are weaknesses in teaching of science and technical subjects for lack of qualified teachers. In addition, students are weak in French (used for teaching most subjects). 2.08 Technical/vocational and Non-formal Education. Introduction of practical subjects in primary G7-8, establishment of the CERAI and diversification of academic secondary schools are all meant to generally orient the system towards technical/vocational education. Secondary schools mentioned above include main biases: agriculture (including veterinary science and forestry), commerce, nursing, primary teachers and technical education. However, the MINEPRISEC runs only two technical secondary schools - the ETO (Ecole Technique Officielle) Kicukiro in Kigali (450 places) for A2-level industrial training and Save near Butare (230 places) for A3-level training. Because of acute shortages of A2 industrial technicians (para. 1.13, 4.11), the MINEPRISEC plans development of technical secondary education, including establishment of a school at Kibuye with assistance under this proposed Third Education Project.  -8- Attrition and repetition In the techalcal schools are very high, mainly due to selection and French language weaknesses, and shortage of qualified teachers. About half the teachers in technical schools are Rwandese and the student/teacher ratio is 12 to one. Technical teacher training is provided in an ad hoc fashion at the Kicukiro school but a comprehensive analysis of future training needs is now being undertaken by the Government. There is also insufficient consultation/coordination among the supplier and user ministries and the labor market generally, and the range of training for trades is too narrow. 2.09 Other ministries provide more specific training such as: the MINIFOP (Annex 1, C-5) training in administration and commerce skills, the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications training for postal/communication services, the Ministry of Public Works and Urban Affairs maintenance training, and the Ministry of Youth and Sport vocational training in 36 Youth Training Centers. There are also other numerous training activities ranging from formal to non-formal including those of: the Ministry of Agriculture extension services, the Ministry of Health training in about 90 Health Centers, and the Electrogaz Agency supported nutrition training. Vocational and home-making training are provided by many church-related agencies. Functional training is given in 184 Literacy Training Centers and a Kigali correspondence school (INADES) emphasizing rural/agricultural development enrolls over 2,000 students. Nevertheless, vocational training lacks adequate coordination at the national level. For this reason, vocational/professional training has been added recently to the responsibilities of MINIFOP and under this proposed Third Education Project, institution building would be strengthened within the ministry and a National Vocational Training Center would be established in Kigali to provide much needed skilled workers (paras. 1.13, 4.14). 2.10 Higher Education. In addition to the NUR campuses at Butare (930 students) and Ruhengeri (440 students), a new Adventist University (not state aided-70 students) opened in Gisenyi in October 1984. 5/ Over 600 students (about 40 percent of total) also study abroad mainly in the USSR, Belgium, France and the Federal Republic of Germany. The NUR (including both campuses) has 10 faculties with approximate enrollment percentages: commerce 21, arts 17, medicine 12, agriculture 10, science 9, law 9, education 9, engineering 5, applied sciences 5, and pharmacy 3. Girls comprise 16 percent of NUR students. The student/teacher ratio is very low at five to one and about 60 percent of teaching staff are Rwandese. 2.11 The NUR has serious pedagogical and economic problems. Average attrition rate of 25 percent is much higher in the first year and affects especially the science and commerce faculties throughout. Main causes include: (a) mismatch between secondary school curricula and NIJR programs; (b) weak selection and orientation of students; and (c) weaknesses in the studies programming and teaching. 6/ Unit recurrent costs are very high 5/ Higher education is also provided in the Military College, Nyakibanda Seminary and Kigali Statistics Institute (IAMSEA) for about 100, 140 and 10 students, respectively. 6/ PNUD (UNDP). Universite et Developpement au Rwanda: Elements pour servir A l'6valuation, la reforme et la planification de l'enseignement sup$rieur au Rwanda (Le Thanh Khoi, septembre 1984).  - 9 - (US$5,000) due mainly to diseconomies of small scale campuses, together with high administration and boarding costs and low student/teacher ratio. UNDP is financing a study which will review the efficiency and effectiveness, inter alia, of NUR (para. 2.19). Education Finance 2.12 Details of Government expenditures on education are given in tables in Annex 1, T-5. Total recurrent expenditures for education (Annex 1, T-5(a)), increased in current terms at an average annual rate of 20 percent between 1979 and 1983, or over 10 percent in real terms (inflation averaging less than 10 percent annually over the same period). 7/ As a result, the share of education in the Government recurrent budget increased from less than 24 percent in 1979 to a level of over 27 percent in 1983 and this, despite a significant increase in real terms in Government expenditures (about five percent per year). In 1984, preliminary estimates indicate a further increase to 28 percent. This high share reflects the priority attached by the Government to the development of human resources. It is projected to further increase to 31 percent in 1990 and 34 percent in 1995 (see assumptions in Annex 1, T-5(b)); however, some of these assumptions should be assessed in the forthcoming report of September 1985 economic mission, and it is likely that the projected share of education would remain below 30 percent. 2.13 Over the last five years (Annex 1, T-5(c)), the distribution of recurrent expenditures between primary/post-primary (CERAI), secondary and higher education has remained nearly constant and averaged 70 percent, 16 percent and 14 percent respectively. On the other hand, the structure of expenditures within primary/post-primary education indicates a major and worrisome decline in the share allocated to teaching materials and maintenance (from 14 percent in 1981 to three percent in 1984) as a result of severe overall budget cuts and increased expenditures on teachers and schools administration (with their share rising from 77 percent in 1981 to 90 percent in 1984). In contrast, the structure of expenditures in both secondary and higher education has rpmained rather constant and marked by relatively high share constituted by administration/boarding for secondary schools (37 percent of total expenditures on secondary education in 1984) and scholarships for higher education (31 percent of total expenditures on higher education in 1984). Unit recurrent costs per student in 1983 were: US$43 in primary/post-primary, US$700 in secondary and US$5,000 in higher education. By African standards, these unit costs are relatively low in primary but relatively high in secondary and higher education, due especially to low student/teacher ratios and high boarding costs. 2.14 Also linked with the increasingly difficult budgetary situation, the Government has significantly reduced its capital expenditures on education, from a level of RwF 410 million iD 1980 to RwF 300 million in 1984, while the share of education in the Government capital expenditures 7/ Inflation averaged 10.6 percent per annum during 1977-82, with a peak of 15.8 percent in 1979; in 1983, inflation was down to 6.5 percent.  - 10 - also declined from over 20 percent in 1980 to less than nine percent in 1984. It should be noted however, that these figures do not include external aid. 2.15 The problems related to the financing of education will remain at the center of the Bank Group sectoral dialogue with the Government. A recent striking development is that following a rapid increase from 1979 to 1981, Government expenditures as well as education expenditures have stagnated in current terms since 1981 (Annex 1, T-5(a)) clearly indicating a decline in real terms. The rapid growth of expenditures from 1979 to 1981 was mainly due to a large increase in teachers' salaries. Some further adjustment in teachers' salaries are currently being considered by Government. Given the poor prospects for improvement in the Government's financial situation (para. 1.08), ways will have to be found to reduce unit costs and expand cost sharing arrangements in order to allow continued growth in enrollment ratios in primary education. In this connection, it is expected that with financing from the ongoing Second IDA Education Project (Credit 1263-RW), the Government will undertake shortly an optimization study of resource uses in the primary sector, Jhich will continue absorbing over 70 percent of the total resources allocated to education. More generally, the Government will have to introduce cost-sharing schemes at all levels of education, including boarding students in secondary and higher education. Given the poverty level of the country, these measures can be introduced only gradually. The proposed project will serve as a vehicle to introduce a nation-wide cost recovery scheme for textbooks/teaching materials (see paras. 4.04-4.05). External Aid 2.16 Rwanda benefits from very significant external aid for its development, estimated in 1983 at US$248 million (about US$45 per capita) for technical assistance (36%) and capital aid (64%). 8/ The education sector is estimated to receive US$80 million external aid in 1985 with another US$50 million under consideration for future projects. The main sources of aid for education were: the Federal Republic of Germany, World Bank Group, Belgium, African Development Bank, EEC, France, Switzerland and Canada. There is a substantial flow of Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) contributions (recently estimated at over US$20.0 million yearly) largely sponsored by religious organizations to support a close-knit fabric of local organizations, and a good proportion of this aid goes to education. External aid covers a wide range of activities at all educational levels, including fellowship training in educational planning/management, curriculum development, teaching and adult education, together with support for construction and equipment at all levels. Coordination of external aid and ensuring its most productive use are necessary to resolve differences between the Government and aid agencies on issues of policy and management. However, donors are developing their own system of exchange and complementarity and an Aid Coordination Group was established about a 8/ UNDP. Rapport annuel pour 1983 sur l'assistanra au developpement; Rwanda 1984.  - 11 - year ago in Kigali (para. 3.05). The most Important aid agencies indicate that the high level of external aid received over recent years may not be maintained. A Donor Conference is being planned for end 1987 with UNDP assistance. Main Issues 2.17 The Government must face the following issues and constraints by strategic planning and implementing action programs designed to optimize use of resources: (a) alignment of policy objectives and targets to financial capacity; (b) rigorous application of cost control; (c) gearing training programs to the needs for priority economic and social development and job opportunities; (d) improvement of internal efficiency, quality and equity as far as financially feasible; (e) modernization of administrative skills and office technology; and (f) coordination of programs to improve literacy. In particular, the problem must be faced of mollifying the detrimental effect on educational development of a likely decline in yearly growth of total real Government expenditures and possible stagnation of the education budget in real teirms. 2.18 Policy Objectives. Progress is being made in our ongoing dialogue on two major questions which derive from the Government's objectives and policies and comprise: (a) prolongation of primary education from six to eight years; and (b) premature division of the NUR into two campuses. Both have pedagogical and economic shortcomings. To alleviate burgeoning social demand for education and render programs more relevant to Job opportunities, primary Gl-3 double-shifting and G7-8 courses with practical emphasis were introduced. Double-shifting in Gl-3 (which educators consider the most crucial years), especially with the high proportion of unqualified teachers and dire textbook shortages, is considered to have a deleterious effect on quality. In addition, teaching of practical subjects in G7-8 is weak for lack of qualified teachers and overall motivation. With continued financial constraints and rapid population growth likely, an alternative approach which seems pedagogically and economically feasible, was defined in a Bank Group Education Sector Memorandum (ESM) presented to the Government in February 1985. 9/ The proposal would shorten primary education to Gl-7 and gradually phase out double-shifting. The Government has provided to the Bank Group comments on this ESM and during negotiations, the Government provided assurances that an evaluation of progress in achieving an agreed action program for improvement of quality and cost-effectiveness would be provided for Bank Group staff review by not later than July 31 each year (para. 8.01(a)). 2.19 Problems emerging from division of the NUR into two campuses (outlined in para. 2.11) have been discussed in ongoing dialogue with the Government when it was emphasized that a comprehensive analysis is necessary as a prerequisite to cost-effective development of the system. At Government request, terms of reference were prepared by the Bank Group and an analysis is now being undertaken with UNDP support. It is expected that results of this analysis will be discussed with the Bank Group. 9/ IBRD. Republic of Rwanda Education Sector Memorandum, June, 1985.  - 12 - 2.20 Cost Control. As seen above, costs are especially high by African standards for second- and third-level education and there is a very heavy dependence on external aid. To enhance cost control measures, the following Government actions are first required: (a) preparation/transla- tion of a three-year "rolling" public investment budget for the education sector into detailed, feasible action program related to recurrent budget constraints and implementation capacities; (b) quantification and coordination of all external aid to ensure appropriateness, complementarity and efficient use of funds; and (c) political commitment to most cost-effective approaches and maximum cooperation between supplier and user ministries on education and training aspects. Cost control measures should include: (a) increasing students per teacher from 15 and 16 in the CERAI and secondary schools respectively, using a classroom rotation system, co-education, increasing school size and increasing the proportion of day students in secondary schools; (b) increasing the NUR student/teacher ratio from five to one and reducing boarding and administration costs; (c) introducing cost-sharing schemes at all levels; and (d) promoting participation of non-government organizations in financing education, especially secondary eaucation. 2.21 Relevance and Job Opportunities. The problem of lack of job opportunuties for school leavers is likely to become more acute (para. 1.11). Increased emphasis on development of technical/vocational education is expected to alleviate this problem through increased relevance of training to job opportunities. In this regard the following actions should be taken: (a) planning/implementation of a comprehensive sub-system of technical/vocational education (including an appropriate technical teacher training system) geared to manpower needs and job opportunities; (b) upgrading existing training facilities; (c) broadening the range of training in technical secondary schools; (d) provision for training of higher technicians; and (e) institution building in the MINIFOP for planning/implementation of the required vocational training. 2.22 Internal Efficiency, Quality and Equity. Serious shortcomings under these headings have been noted earlier. To avoid further deterioration, priority should be given to the following actions: (a) increasing the proportion of qualified teachers 4n lower primary education, reinforcing the inspection system, improving educa-tional management, and increasing provision of textbooks/education materials; (b) improving selection based on merit and aptitude for admission to secondary and higher education; and (c) reducing very high attrition rates in the NUR. 2.23 Modernization of Administration and Office Technology. As seen in para. 2.03, there are shortcomings in the MINEPRISEC concerning over centralization, limited management skills and outmoded office practices. To ameliorate this situation, required actions include: (a) delegation of authority within the ministry headquarters; (b) training in educational  - 13 - planning, management and pedagogy to reduce dependence on expatriates; 10/ and (c) modernization of office technology through gradual introduction of appropriate cor'uterization, especially of the financial accounting, examination, information and inventories systems. 2.24 Coordination of Literacy Programs. Despite the numerous agencies involved in literacy training, lack of coordlnation hinders solid progress from the current 63 percent illiteracy rate. Evaluation of the present multi-faceted approach is due and preparation of a cost-effective strategy for literacy development, including especially, coordination of efforts should be undertaken. III. EDUCATION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY Experience with Past Lending 3.01 The Bank Group has supported Rwanda's education sector through two education projects, emphasizing primary and secondary education development, respectively. The First Education Project (Credit 567-RW for US$8.0 millipn) 11/ was approved in June 1975 and closed in December 1983, an 18 months deiay beyond the original Closing Date. Following earlier delays due to project complexity, poor accounting and unfamiliarity of the concerned authorities with Bank Group procedures, the project was finally well executed and a commendable community effort was made in implementation of school workshops. The project supported the improvement of quality of primary education and its relevance to job opportunities, and institution building for project implementation through: (a) addition of workshops for practical training in upper grades at 250 rural primary schools, re-training in these subjects for teachers and provision of a printshop for production of textbooks and teacher guides; and (b) establishment of a project implementation unit to provide architectural services for the MINEPRISEC together with project management capacity. Preliminary findings of a Project Completion Report (PCR) noted ineffective teacher training, weak management of the School Printshop and unsatisfactory textbook distribution. 3.02 The Second Education Project (Credit 1263-RW for SDR 9.0 million - US$10.0 million equivalent) approved in June 1982 supports commerce, nursing and primary teacher training in secondary schools to meet acute shortages of personnel in these fields together with institution building on the quality/pedagogical side through technical assistance for improved training standards, more relevant curricula, and on the administrative side for project execution. It is expected especially that Rwandese capacity for accounting/financial analysis will be built up through support of commerce/economics training by other planned similar training at secondary level and thus enhance training standards in higher education by providing sufficient well prepared students. A slight initial delay due to late recruitment of required technical assistance specialists 10/ Fellowship training in educational planning and administration is supported by UNDP/UNESCO and curriculum development training is supported through Belgian and French cooperation. 11/ Of this amount US$1.6 million was cancelled in 1978 due to misprocurement.  - 14 - has been overcome and project implementation is on schedule and progressing satisfactorily. All covenants in the Development Credit Agreement are being met. 3.03 Preliminary findings of the PCR for the First Education Project indicate reasonable success in the provision of buildings and equipment, establishment of project implementation and textbook printing capacity. However, teaching of practical subjects in the workshops provided is not yet satisfactory, apparently due to ineffective teacher training. In addition, management of the school printshop has been weak and satisfactory textbook distribution has not been achieved due to lack of storage space and consistent financial support. However, lessons learned by both the Government and the Bank Group from the First project experience are already being applied with good results in the Second project. Clearly, more compact projects (such as the Second project), having lesser items less widely scattered which are more readily monitored by both parties, are more appropriate for Rwanda at present. The concerned authorities have gained valuable experience with Bank Group administrative and procurement procedures and their ianagement has considerably improved. Nevertheless, it is necessary to ensure that the minimum required technical assistance specialists, especially in architectural services, accounting and procurement, are in place at the start of each project. The Government has shown itself amenable to continuous, candid dialogue on sector development and project management problems, leading to a good modus operandi with Bank Group on these matters. Bank Group Support 3.04 Overall strategy should take account of the major problems of severe financial constraints and rapid population growth, emphasizing the most efficient use of funds to enable increased participation, improved quality and meeting the needs of economic development. Bank Group support should be geared accordingly, to meet the priority problems summarized in paras. 2.17 to 2.24, while complementing assistance given by multilateral and bilateral agencies. Dialogue should thus be continued with the Government on: (a) further modification of HINEPRISEC and NINESUPRES education reform objectives and expansion to take account of ongoing severe financial constraints and rapid population growth, and strike a realistic balance among political, economic, pedagogical and equity goals; (b) improvement of internal (system flow) and external (curricula relevance to job opportunities) efficiencies; (c) amelioration of quality and cost control, and introduction of cost sharing schemes; (d) planning and implementing of a comprehensive development of technical education and vocational training, including a system of technical/vocational teacher training; (e) rational development of higher education based upon thorough sub-sector analysis and including higher technician training; (f) planning and coordination of literacy programs; (g) improved planning/consultation between supplier and user ministries; (h) increased involvement of non-Government and private agencies in educational development; and (i) improved overall educational management and institution building. As their high level of aid (over 20 percent of total educational expenditure) is unlikely to be maintained, continuous dialogue with other external aid  - 15 - agencies vill be necessary, not only to ensure complementarity and learn from their experiences, but also to coordinate efforts towards the most appropriate and efficient use of funds. Bank Group support should also help to gear education and training programs to the needs for priority economic and social development as elucidated in justified priorities included in Rwanda's National Development Plans and recomended in the Bank Group's current Country Economic Memorandum. 3.05 Good progress is being made in dialogue and coordination of aid efforts among the Government, aid donors and the Bank Group. The basic objective of Bank Group staff to pursue continuous exchange on required sector work, ongoing project implementation and future aid possibilities are enhanced by establishment of the Aid Coordination Group mentioned earlier, comprising Ambassadors/delegates of countries represented in Rwanda together with the Resident Representatives of the UNDP and Bank Group staff. UNDP undertakes overall organization of monthly meetings of the group at which aid coordination is discussed. Staff of the Bank Group presented the findings of the January, 1985 Education Sector Memorandum to the February 1985 meeting of the Group. 3.06 Clearly, all the identified deficiencies of the education sector could not be addressed in the Third Education Project. Based upon Government priorities, complementarity with aid donors, status of preparation of items concerned and conformity with Bank Group strategy for educational development, this project would support Improved quality in primary and post-primary education and the development of technical/vocational education. The Government's commitment to taking priority action to meet the detrimental effect on quality of serious lack of textbooks and its preparedness to introduce a cost-sharing, self-sustaining replenishment scheme through student fees, deserves IDA support. Similarly, its commitment to developing technical/vocational education at this time is opportune, not only because of acute manpower shortages, but also for timely development of planning and training expertise in this sub-sector. In addition to the Second Education Project which addresses teacher and other manpower shortages, other aid agencies (para. 2.16) are supporting (or planning to support) the Government in meeting other identified deficiencies. IV. THE PROJECT Objectives 4.01 The project is designed to assist the Government in its plan to: (a) improve the quality and efficiency of its primary and post-primary education system through: (i) provisions for the supply and distribution of textbooks and other teaching materials; (ii) the establishment of a self-sustaining textbook and teaching manuals replenishment scheme; and (iii) institutional building by strengthening textbook management and training MINEPRISEC and MINIFOP personnel through technical assistance; and (b) alleviate the shortages of critically needed manpower by provisions for: (i) a new technical secondary school (TSS - 270 places); and (ii) a new national vocational training center (NVTC - 120 places with 240 training stations).  - 16 - Textbook and Teaching Materials (Supply and Distribution) 4.02 General. A major cause of low-level educational quallty is shortaSe of textbooks and other teaching materials. It is estimated that only one In eight primary school students has a set of textbooks and this is far below any accepted standard. This situation is compounded by the corresponding lack of teaching materials and an inadequate distribution infrastructure including lack of a consistent financial support. 4.03 With assistance provided under the First Education Project and with aid from the Federal Republic of Germany, a MINEPRISEC School Printshop (IMPRESCO) was established which is adequately equipped to print the required textbooks. However, the distribution system administered by the School Equipment Division of MINEPRISEC lacks managerial capability, storage space and consistent financial support. To assist the Government to alleviate these shortcomings, specific support would be provided for: (a) technical assistance (7 staff/years) for the recruitment of an expert adviser/accountant and expert(s) in printing techniques to strengthen the administration for textbook supply and distribution and provide counterpart training accordingly for Rwandese personnel who will have responsibility for managing this element; (b) a new central storage dep8t in Remera (Kigali suburb) of about 1,300 square meters, having the necessary office facilities together with a modest regional transit dep8t of about 130 square meters (including some office space) in each capital of the nine remaining prefectures; (c) supply of paper for printing textbooks and teacher manuals; and (d) the introduction of a cost-sharing book-usage scheme through collection of student fees, which would ensure continuous replenishment of these items. 4.04 Distribution and Supply System. Details of the distribution system are given in Annex 2 and are summarized as follows: IMPRESCO reinforced with technical and financial autonomy (under the authority of MINEPRISEC (Annex 1, C-3) by an Arrate Presidentiel of December 30, 1985, headed by a qual_fied manager with technical assistance from experts (Annex 1, S-1), would be responsible for planning, programming, implementation (including procurement and stock-control for the depBts and IMPRESCO) and monitoring of the supply and distribution system. The required coordination between the primary/CERAI curriculum development center, IMPRESCO and the concerned MINEPRISEC authorities would be undertaken. During negotiations, the Government gave an assurance that the expert/adviser and expert(s) in printing techniques, having qualifications satisfactory to the Bank Group would be appointed and in post by not later than January 1, 1987 (para. 8.01(b)). The experts would train their Rwandese counterparts and organize required on-the-job training so that upon their departure efficient operation may continue. Planning of the required textbooks/materials would be based upon enrollment forecasts by school to be ready at least 10 months prior to the start of each school year. IHPRESCO's production would be efficiently managed in a phased fashion for storage in the Remera dep8t. Students' basic minimum packages would be packed there in suitable boxes assigned, invoiced and labeled for each school (about 18,000 boxes) and stored by prefecture. Boxes would be transported during July-August to regional dep8ts by truck (about 80 boxes  - 17 - per truck) under contract with a suitable firm following bids. 12/ The Government would finance the supply of education materials, one alf of which would be transported at this time and the remainder during December-January. Communes and their Parents' Associations with schools' participation would be reponsible for: (a) collection of student fees to be deposited in a local bank; and (b) transportation of boxes (released upon handing over receipt for deposit) from the regional depots to the schools. Deposited student fees, transferred to a special account in the Central Bank, National Bank of Rwanda (NBR), would form the basis of a Revolving Fund established there by the MINEPRISEC to ensure sustained replenishment of textbook/materials. 4.05 Norms for Supply of Textbooks and Teaching Materials. A basic minimum of textbooks and teaching materials would be provided in the proportion of one set of textbooks per two primary school students and one set per CERAI student (total for about one million students). In addition, each student (both primary and CERAI) would receive one set of educational materials and exercise books and each teacher would receive a set of teaching manuals (total about 20,000 sets). The textbooks, which are expected to last five years, would be the property of the MINEPRISEC (marked accordingly to avoid sal.s abuses) and would be for school use only. A yearly student book-usa;e fee of 200-300 RwF (US$2-3) would be charged for the rent of textbooki and which would also cover the cost of the basic minimum educational materials. High costs have been experienced due to frequent changes in textbook curricula, together with paper, cover material and binding quality being higher than that required to obtain economic-optional durability; these standards would be reduced accordingly. During negotiations, The Government gave an assurance that no major textbook revision in primary school or post-primary curricula concerned would be made for a period of five years following March 31, 1987 (para. 8.01(c)). 4.06 To correspond with the above-mentioned norms, enrollment forecasts, completion of dep8ts construction, existing stocks and required replenishment, production is expected to be about 300,000 textbooks and six million exercise books yearly from 1988, increasing by about four percent yearly thereafter, in line with expected enrollment increase, and a total of 160,000 teaching manuals. Close to 100 tons of paper on average will be required per year for the textbook and teaching manuals production and about 280 tons per year for exercise books. An inventory of available primary school and CERAI textbooks has been completed. 4.07 It is planned that IMPRESCO would print the required school books and complete the production of exercise books. The mission considers that with improved efficiency IMPRESCO could produce these items timely and at competitive prices. In that regard, prior to negotiations, the Government provided to the Bank Group a satisfactory report on IMPRESCO including its administrative procedures, audit of 1984 accounts, both present and planned printing activities and use of paper recently procured under the First Education Project; it also provided during negotiations a copy of ArrgtE Presidentiel No. 655/13 of December 30, 1985 which grants technical and financial autonomy to IMPRESCO (under the authority of MINEPRISEC) for more 12/ Local firms could provide this service.  - 18 - efficient operation. During negotiations, the Government gave an assurance that an audit report for IMPRESCO 1985 accounts would be prepared by July 31, 1986 by independent auditors acceptable to the Bank Group and a conformed copy of this report would be transmitted earliest thereafter for Bank Group staff review (para. 8.02(d). 4.08 School Supplies Revolving Fund. In order to ensure sufficient funds to procure the required paper for replenishment of textbooks and exercise books, other basic education materials, teacher manuals and transport expenses, a special interest-bearing account in Rwandese francs would be established by the Government in the NBR (Central Bank). IMPRESCO would be responsible for supervision of this fund. Student fees collected for the basic minimum textbooks would be transferred to this specific account at the start of each school year. This form of cost-sharing is also meant to reduce dependence on Government expenditures in this field and upgrade quality in education. About US$2.0 million equivalent in fees would be collected yearly when this component is fully operational. During negotiations, the Government gave an assurance that this account would be established and replenished at the start of each school-year and a MINEPRISEC circular defining the student fees cost-sharing scheme would be issued by not later than June 30, 1988 (para. 8.01(e)). 4.09 Monitoring. A management committee (Comite d'Exploitation) having representatives of the MINEPRISEC, Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MINIFIN), and the NBR has been established in IMPRESCO to guide its management, monitor its operations and advise related units. Monitoring would include quarterly review of the Revolving Fund and IMPRESCO accounts as well as operational plans, procurement and inventories for IMPRESCO and the Remera dep3t. During negotiations, the Government gave an assurance that the management committee would prepare quarterly reports for the Revolving Fund, IMPRESCO and the Remera dep8t in accordance with the above monitoring which would be incorporated in the semi-annual reports to be transmitted for IDA review and comment (para. 8.01(f)). The project includes support for continuous monitoring of the textbook distribution and cost-sharing schemes. It is envisaged that appropriate members of the MINEPRISEC-appointed Textbook Distribution Commission would for three successive years following the first distribution, identify any emerging problems in the distribution cycle in particular regarding textbook/materials from planning to distribution among students, and in general concerning the cost-sharing scheme, and make recommendations to overcome these problems. In addition, the study on improvement in educational administration and support for fellowship training for three inspectors (para. 4.10) would include aspects related to improved provision and care of textbooks/materials. Institutional Support (Studies/Seminars) 4.10 The project includes about three staff/years of technical assistance specialists (Annex 1, S-1) for the following studies: (a) monitoring of textbook distribution and cost-sharing schemes; (b) improvement of school inspection and management; (c) improvement of educational administration; and (d) evaluation/preinvestment studies  - 19 - related to the project components and development of the sector. Seminars would also be financed for training of school inspectors and managers, inter alios. During negotiations, the Government gave assurances that these studies would be started earliest in accordance with terms of reference agreed with the Bank Group and that the studies would be completed by not later than December 31, 1990 (para. 8.01(g)). In addition, seven staff/years of specialists services are included for an expert adviser/accountant and expert(s) in printing techniques to assist IMPRESCO with the textbook supply distribution system, maintain project accounts and train local counterparts so that they may be capable of undertaking such tasks (paras. 4.18 and 6.02). Technical Secondary School (TSS) 4.11 The new TSS, which would have a total of 270 student places with a yearly intake of 60 students and an output of 36 technicians, would be established in Kibuye, capital of Kibuye prefecture located on the shore of Lake Kivu about 70 km. west of Kigali. The TSS would introduce a six-year program (Annex 1, C-1) to train A2 technicians in two new mechanical engineering streams, heavy duty mechanics and plant maintenance, respectively. Of the 36 yearly output of graduates, one-third are expected to be directly employed in parastatal and private enterprises, one-third would proceed to engineering training in higher education and one-third would enter technical teaching following suitable training. Existing and planned output of A2 engineering technicians (even taking a low estimate of requirements relative to a high level of supply) falls well short of evaluated needs and Rwanda faces a serious shortage of engineers (para. 1.13). In addition, shortages of trained personnel in these new specialized skills are reportedly acute with deleterious effects on industrial performance of enterprises and plant maintenance within them. 4.12 The training course would have two semesters yearly with 40 periods tuition weekly. The curriculum prepared by the BPES is suitable, having overall, about 38 percent of teaching time devoted to general subjects, 32 percent to technological subjects (including technical drawing), 26 percent -o workshop practice and four percent to general science. However, curricula for fourth, fifth and sixth years for heavy duty mechanics and plant maintenance (including mechanics, machine elements, strength of materials, machine construction, prime movers and plant implements, automation, electricity and electronics together w,th workshop practice) will require elaboration. This adaptation would be prepared in the BPES with expert assistance to be financed under Credit 1263-RW. During negotiations, the Government gave assurances that these prepared curricula would be received for review and comment by the Bank Group by not later than June 30, 1988 (para. 8.01(h)). The MINEPRISEC would award diplomas to successful graduates. 4.13 When in full operation, the TSS would require 23 full-time equivalent teachers giving a student/teacher ratio of about 12 which is acceptable for this type of school. Nine general subject teachers would be recruited among Rwandese graduates. Twenty-eight staff/years of fellowship training are included in the project (Annex 1, S-1) for about 14 Rwandese candidates to train abroad to become teachers of technological and practical subjects so that they may form an effective teaching staff.  - 20 - Pedagogical training would be provided for them upon their return to Rwanda, in the in-service teacher training unit in the Kicukiro TSS. In the school's operation it is expected that an attrition rate of not greater than 10 percent can be achieved through improved selection procedures. Accordingly, during negotiations the Government provided assurances that based upon the results of a study being undertaken on the causes of very high attrition in the Kicukiro TSS, proposals satisfactory to the Bank Group, for improved internal efficiency would be introduced for Kibuye TSS. Receipt of such proposals would constitute a condition of disbursement against the civil works category for the new school (para. 8.02). To ensure efficient launching and management of the TSS, technical assistance is provided in the project for recruitment of a suitably qualified and experienced Director for two years beginning January, 1989. 13/ A suitable Rwandese Deputy Director (intended to succeed him) would aTso be appointed by the same time and be trained in management of the school by the Director in addition to a bursar (intendant), supervisor (surveillant) and workshop supervisor (chef d'ateliers). During negotiations, the Government gave assurances that satisfactory recruitment proposals for the proposed Director and Deputy Director would be provided for Bank Group review and comment by not later than September 30, 1988 and that they would be appointed by not later than January 1, 1989 (para. 8.01(i)). The project would include academic and boarding facilities and at least 16 staff houses. It is expected that austere standards of such staff housing would be implemented. Because student selection would be on a national basis, commuting constraints due to very hilly terrain and inadequate home study environment, hostel accommodation would be provided for practically all students in the TSS. National Vocational Training Center (NVTC) 4.14 The NVTC would have 120 places with 240 training stations to provide both initial training programs (maximum length nine months) and shorter upgrading courses; yearly output would be about 60 skilled workers of A3-level and about 240 for other training, subject to maximum 120 enrollment at any one time. The NVTC would be located in Kigali with good access from popular residential areas and industrial enterprises. The center would offer initial training in nine-month courses for CERAI graduates as well as for other suitable candidates and one-month upgrading/re-training courses for industrial employees in private and parastatal enterprises. Initial basic training would be offered in the following six specialisms having 20 trainees each: mechanics, welding/sheet metal work, electricity, auto-mechanics, carpentry and building construction. Following this course and upon entry to employment, these trainees would undergo on-the-job industrial training plus upgrading/re-training of one-year equivalent to become A3 skilled workers. 14/ The center's workshops would also be equipped to provide short courses to respond to labor market needs (such as refrigeration) and 13/ The technical assistance included could be used for contracting the required management expertise in a twinning' approach with a well-developed TSS elsewhere. 14/ Thus, while about 120 initial trainees would be trained yearly the effective output is about 60 skilled workers, or 10 in each specialty; total annual output for all courses would be about 300.  - 21 - it is expected that evening courses for iniLial and upgrading training would be organized after about two years' operation. Rwanda's requirements of skilled workers in the above specialties surpass existing output together with planned NVTC and other output (para. 1.13) but the center should greatly alleviate present acute shortages. 4.15 The NVTC would have all-year-round training with trainees spending 40 hours weekly entirely in the workshops. Details of the training programs given in the Project Preparation Report would be elaborated by MINIFOP personnel in cooperation with three specialists (chief technical adviser, planner/programmer and extension and apprenticeship trainer) to be recruited soon after Credit effectiveness (Annex 1, S-1). The planning and programming of training courses would similarly be prepared to ensure a suitable sequence of initial training, followed by practical work experience in enterprises and upgrading/re-training courses to qualify skilled workers. Canteen facilities would be provided for students at the NVTC. Housing would be provided only for the NVTC Director. 4.16 A National Vocational Training Board (NVTB) attached to the MINIFOP would be established earliest to develop vocational training policy and would have representation from other concerned ministries, the private sector and established trade unions (Annex 1, C-6). Under policy guidance from the NVTB and administrative authority of the MINIFOP, responsibilities of the vocational training office of the NVTC would comprise (in addition to training), planning and programming of vocational training and training activities outside the center, including in-plant training for specific skills and apprenticeship training. It is expected that close links will be developed by the NVTC with private and parastatal industrial enterprises. It is also expected that the center would justify its usefulness to these enterprises to the extent that arrangements can be made for their participation not only in sharing the costs of vocational training but also in management of the center. 4.17 Of technical assistance included for required institution building in the MINIFOP Directorate of Vocational Training and the NVTC, three specialists mentioned in para. 4.15 would be recruited whose functions would include on-the-job training for their Rwandese counterparts, one of whom would be the future NVTC Director and others who would replace the relevant experts. When fully operational, the NVTC would require six full-time senior instructors for day-courses (for the six specialisms) plus six assistant instructors. To launch the center efficiently, five senior specialist instructors would be recruited (a Rwandese instructor is available for the building construction specialism) and six suitable Rwandese technical secondary school graduates having industrial experience would be appointed to undertake on-the-job teaching instruction by the specialists and fellowship training abroad (Annex 1, S-1). During negotiations, the Government provided assurances that the proposed contract commitment for all fellowship trainees supported under the project, to work for a minimum of five successive years in these instltutes upon their return from training abroad, would be transmitted for Bank Group review and comment by not later than June 30, 1987  - 22 - (para. 8.01(j)). To ensure efficient management of the center, the technical adviser, planner and extension training specialists and their Rwandese counterparts would be punctually recruited. During negotiations, the Government provided assurances that satisfactory recruitment proposals for them would be transmitted to the Bank Group for review and comment by not later than July 31, 1986 and that the two former would be appointed and in post by not later than January 31, 1987 and the latter by January 31, 1988 (para. 8.01(k)). The Government also provided before negotiations, information satisfactory to the Bank Group on the legal status of the NVTC. Technical Assistance Summary 4.18 The technical assistance program provides for 30 staff/years of specialists services (including three staff/years for above-mentioned studies) and 46 staff/years of fellowship training to be allocated as outlined in Annex 1, S-1. Five staff/years of specialists services are included for an expert adviser/accountant to manage the textbook distribution element and maintain project accounts and two staff/years for expert(s) in printing techniques as considered necessary for this period to ensure efficient project implementation. To recruit a Director for efficient launching of the TSS, two staff/years are also allocated (para. 4.13). However, the major portion of technical assistance services, 18 staff/years, is allocated to the NVTC, of which eight for MINIFOP institution building (including training of Rwandese to replace the experts concerned) and preparation for launching the center through recruitment of a technical adviser, planner and extension/apprenticeship expert (para. 4.15); the remaining 10 staff/years are assigned to five vocational trainers to start-up of NVTC training and train their Rwandese counterparts. UNDP is expected to provide to the Government on a grant basis, financing of about 16 staff years of specialists services and six staff years of fellowship training. It is expected that the Government may select ILO as implementing agency for UNDP-financed technical assistance. 4.19 While nire staffryears are provided for 10 fellowship trainees related to the texctbook element, the major portion of technical assistance for fellowship training(28 staff/years) is allocated to the TSS for 14 selected Rwandese to train abroad for two years each in the 14 specialisms they will teach upon return, as outlined in Annex 1, S-1. For the NVTC, the Rwandese Director and Training Chief are allocated a half-year each training abroad, while the trainers in the six specialisms to be taught would have an academic year training each for a total of six staff/years. In the context of the project's quality improvement objective, one staff/year each is included for three MINEPRISEC inspectors. Contingency allowance is also made for additional fellowship training as considered necessary.  - 23 - 4.20 Technical assistance specialists financed under the project would be selected in accordance with the Bank Guidelines for use of Consultants. Qualifications, experience and terms of employment of specialists and consultants would be satisfactory to the Bank Group. Fellowship candidates, courses of study and institutions would also be selected in consultation with the Bank Group. All specialists, as a part of their terms of reference, would be expected to train local counterparts. Female Participation in the Education System 4.21 In primary schools and CERAI, where about one million students will be affected by the textbook component of the project, enrollment of females in 1984 was 48 and 46 percent, respectively. In secondary education in 1984, female enrollment by general, technical and teacher training streams was 19, 40 and 45 percent, respectively. However, because of the very specialized nature of the courses to be provided in the TSS and the NVTC, and given present attitudes, percentages of female students in these institutes are not expected to increase in the foreseeable future. The percentage of female students in the NUR has gradually increased over recent years to reach 16 percent in 1984. Population Education 4.22 Recognizing the dire effects of very rapid population growth upon achievement of food security together with adequate employment and social services, the Government has highlighted development of population policy and family planning programs since 1980. The National Population Office (ONAPO) was established in 1981 to research population growth, integrate family planning services into the health system and provide public information on these matters. USAID supports this process and the IDA-financed Bugesera-Gisaka-Migongo (BGM) rural development project contains a family planning component. ONAPO is also undertaking a nationwide fertility survey as a basis for reinforcing future programs. The primary and secondary pedagogical centers have been directed since 1980 to incorporate population education elements in school curricula to the extent possible, though efforts made do not seem to be as effective as desirable. Environmental Impact 4.23 No negative impact on the environment is expected as a result of this project.  - 24 - V. PROJECT COST AND FINANCIAL PLAN Project Cost 5.01 The total cost of the project including grants from UNDP is estimated at US$19.0 million including customs duties and taxes estimated at US$1.3 million equivalent. The estimated costs and foreign-exchange components are given in Annex 1, T-6(a), T-6(b) and (T-6(c), respectively and are suimmarized below. RwF Million US$ Million Z of Base Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Cost 1. Construction, Furniture, Equipment, Vehicles and Teaching Materials a. Textbooks/Distribution System 126 256 382 1.37 2.80 4.17 28 b. TSS - Kibuye 132 265 397 1.43 2.91 4.34 29 c. NVTC - Kigali 69 141 210 0.76 1.54 2.30 16 Sub-Total (1) 327 662 989 3.56 7.25 10.81 73 2. Technical Assistance 37 269 306 0.41 2.94 3.35 23 3. Project Administration 8 20 28 0.10 0.20 0.30 2 4. Professional Services (A/E) 4 18 22 0.05 0.19 0.24 2 Total Base Cost (1-4) 376 969 1,345 4.12 10.58 14.70 100 (March, 1986) 5. Contingencies a. Physical (8%) 32 51 83 0.35 0.55 0.90 b. Price (24%) 88 222 310 0.96 2.44 3.40 Sub-Total (5) 120 273 393 1.31 2.99 4.30 Total Project Costs (1-5) 496 1,242 1,738 5.43 13.57 19.00 (of which taxes) (115) (115)(1.25) (1.25) 5.02 Cost estimates for civil works, furniture, equipment and vehicles were derived from a review by Bank staff of data provided by the SFCS project unit based on recent experience in implementing the First and Second IDA Education Projects and on different school construction activities financed from other sources. The proposed schedules of accommodation are functional, austere and appropriate for the proposed  - 25 - project objectives. Base cost per student (academic and conmunal) is estimated at US$6,500 for the TSS and US$7,200 for the NVTC. The average unit base cost of construction (excluding equipment) varies from about US$360 equivalent per square meter for technical workshops (secondary education) to about US$490 equivalent per square meter for the science laboratories. These costs reflect, inter alia, the transport difficulties associated with a landlocked country and heavy dependence on the external supply of goods and services. The range of recent available unit costs for similar institutions in other Eastern and Southern Africa countries compare as follows: Ethiopia US$280 to US$400 (1984) and Botswana US$250 to US$350 (1985). Furniture and equipment would be of a type appropriate to the basic needs in the country to accomplish the educational objectives of the proposed project. 5.03 Technical Assistance (para. 4.18, Annex 1, S-1) It is expected that UNDP will undertake joint financing of technical assistance for the NVTC component to the extent of about US$1.3 million. 5.04 Professional services (architectural/engineering) (para. 6.03), for the NVTC equivalent to about 18 man-months are included in the project. 5.05 Cuotoms Duties and Taxes. All items specifically imported for the proposed project would be exempt from direct customs duties and taxes, in line with the standard practice of the Government. It is expected that some of the materials to be usad in the construction of the proposed institutes would be acquired on the local market and would be subject to clstoms duties and/or taxes. Of the estimated cost for civil works, about bo$1.3 million equivalent would represent customs duties and taxes. 5.06 Contingency Allowances. For physical contingencies, an average of six percent has been added to the base cost which is considered adequate. Price increases, from the base 0ost date (March 1986) have been c-alculated by applying, to the base cost plus physical contingencies, the following percentage rates of price escalation in accordance with the implementation schedule (Annex 1, S-2): Calendar Year 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Local (Z) 10.0 10.0 10.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Foreign (Z) 7.0 7.0 7.5 7.7 7.6 4.5 These annual rates have been reviewed by Bank Group staff and have been found satisfactory. The total price increase is estimated at 23 percent of the base cost plus physical contingencies. 5.07 Foreign Exchange Component. The foreign exchange component has been calculated as follows: (a) civil works, 52 percent; (b) locally manufactured furniture, 60 percent; (c) directly imported furniture, equipment and vehicles, 100 percent; (d) equipment assembled or manufactured locally, 60 percent; (e) professional services and project administration, 70 percent; (f) technical assistance and training, 85 percent; and (g) fellowships, 100 percent. Including contingencies, the foreign exchange component is estimated at US$13.6 million equivalent or 72 percent of the total project cost (77 percent net of taxes). Excluding the UNDP grant, the foreign exchange component is estimated at US$12.3 million I  - 26 - or 69 percent of the project cost net of taxes. This high foreign exchange component is basically the result of the large proportion of imported equipment, construction materials, related transport costs and technical assistance. Financing Plan 5.08 An IDA Credit of SDR 13.5 million (US$15.6 million equivalent), and a grant of US$1.3 million equivalent from UNDP would finance the project as follows: US$ Million Equivalent Category GOV'T IDA Sub-total UNDP Total 1. Civil Works 0.90 6.10 7.00 - 7.00 2. Furniture/Equipment/ Vehicles 0.30 3.00 3.30 - 3.30 3. Paper and Printing Materials 0.10 0.80 0.90 - 0.90 4. Tech. Assist./ Training and Seminars 0.10 1.80 1.90 1.30 3.20 5. Professional Services 0.05 0.20 0.25 - 0.25 6. Project Administration 0.05 0.25 0.30 - 0.30 (excluding salaries) 7. Unallocated 0.60 3.45 4.05 - 4.05 Total (1-7) 2.10 15.60 17.70 1.30 19.00 of which taxes (1.25) - (1-25) - (1.25) 5.09 The IDA Credit would provide financing toward the following components: (a) the textbook/teaching material supply and distribution component, including paper for the printing of textbooks but excluding educational materials (Government); (b) the TSS in Kibuye; (c) the NVTC in Kigali, excluding most of the technical assistance (UNDP); (d) studies and seminars; and (e) technical assistance and operating expenses (excluding salaries) for project administration.t 5.10 UNDP would provide a grant of about US$1.3 million toward financing about 16 staff/years of technical assistance specialists and about six staff/years of fellowships for the NVTC. It is expected that four of these experts would be UN volunteers (Annex 1, S-1). In addition to covering the cost of all duties and taxes CUS$1.3 million), the l  - 27 - Government would provide the equivalent of about US$0.8 million towards other local expenditures. It is a condition of Credit effectiveness that UNDP enter into a formal agreement with the Government (satisfactory to the Bank Group) for the provision of technical assistance for the NVTC (para. 8.03). 5.11 The incremental recurrent costs generated by the project are estimated at an annual RwF 67.3 million 15/ (or about US$0.4 million equivalent) and would account for 0.9 percent of total recurrent expenditures on education in 1992 16/ when the project is expected to be in full operation. The main reaso6nfor such a relatively low impact is that the project has been designed to minimize its impact on the Goverpment budget through the establishment of a cost-sharing scheme for the supply of textbooks and teaching materials. VI. IMPLEMENTATION, PROCUREMENT, DISBURSEMENT AND AUDITING Implementation 6.01 The project would be implemented over a period of about five and a half years (Annex 1, S-2). The project is expected to be completed by June 30, 1991, with a Closing Date of December 31, 1991. The implementation schedule is based on, inter alia, experience derived from the First and Second IDA assisted Education Projects in Rwanda (paras. 3.01 and 3.02). 6.02 Project Administration. The !ervice de Financement et des Constructions Scolaires (SFCS), which was established under the First Education Project and has the responsibility for the implementation of the Second Education Project and education projects financed by otLer donor agencies (including, inter alios, the African Development Bank and the European Economic Community) would continue to have responsibility for the implementation of the MINEPRISEC components of this project. The Direction de la Formation, MINIFOP, would have responsibility for execution of the NVTC. The Director of MINIFOP would be reponsible for the overall administration of the NVTC component. He would be assisted by the echnical assistance team, in particular the chief technical adviser (Annex 1, S-1). Five years of technical assistance is also included in the project for an expert adviser/accountant and two years of technical assistance for expert(s) in printing techniques for the SFCS. The expert adviser/accountant in addition to managing the textbook element would maintain project accounts both for SFCS and MINIFOP and would prepare withdrawal applications for funds under the project. He/she would also maintain the accounts of funds provided by UNDP as appropriate and train 15/ Including RwF 36.5 million for Kibuye TSS, RwF 28.3 million for Kigali NVTC and RwF 2.6 million for textbook distribution scheme. 16/ Assumptions about growth of total recurrent expenditures on education are given in Annex 1, T-5(b).  - 28 - Rwandese counterparts in accounting/financial analysis. During negotiations, the Government provided assurances that the SFCS would be adequately staffed and maintained during the implementation of this project, including the appointment of a qualified Rwandese accountant (para. 8.01(1)). l 6.03 Professional Services. The preparation of tender documents including furniture and equipment for civil works and further preparation studies on the textbook supply component for the MINEPRISEC would be undertaken by SFCS staff with additional financing from pre-investment funds allocated under the Second IDA Education Project (Credit 1263-RW) as required. The preparation of tender documents including furniture and equipment and civil works for the HINIPOP components would be financed under the IDA Technical Assistance Project (Credit 1217-RW). The project includes the cost for site supervision for all components. 6.04 Specialists and Consulting Services. All specialists and consultants financed under the IDA Credit would be hired under contracts on terms and conditions acceptable to the Bank Group in accordance with the Bank Group Guidelines for the Use of Consultants. 6.05 Sites. Satisfactory sites exist for all project institutes. 6.06 Status of Preparation. As indicated above, authorized project implementation UPits exist and required support for Rwandese staff would be timely recruited. Preliminary equipment lists with estimated costs were provided for Bank Group review prior to negotiations for all the project institutes and preliminary sketch designs with estimated costs were also provided for the MINEPRISEC items. As preparation of preliminary sketch designs with estimated costs for the NVTC was delayed, it is a condition of Credit effectiveness that an architectural firm acceptable to the Bank Group will have been selected for this work (para. 8.03(b)). Terms of reference have been prepared for all studies planned, training and technical assistance needs have been identified with terms of reference prepared for all assignments and satisfactory Procedures for recruitment of consultants agreed. A schedule for timely recruitment of key personnel has been prepared. Contract packages and procuremenit methods have been defined and a schedule has also been prepared for civil works and equipment procurement. 6.07 Maintenance. The maintenance of all education facilities is under the responsibility of the MINEPRISEC and is performed by the SFCS. Adequate funds for maintenance are included in its budget. No problem is envisaged in this respect. 6.08 Monitoring and Evaluat'.on. Semi-annual progress reports on implementation would be submitted to the Bank Group by the SFCS for the MINEPRISEC items and by the MINIFOP for the NVTC, each December and June following Credit effectiveness. The format would be mutually agreed upon prior to the date of the first submission and wuuld be modified as deemed necessary during Implementation of the project. The Government, with assistance of MINEPRISEC and MINIFOP, would prepare and send to the Bank  - 29 - Group for comments, within six months from the Closing Date, a completion report assessing attainment of project objectives, project implementation and initial operation, its cost and the benefits derived, the performance of the Government, the Bank Group and other agencies involved, and the significant lessons learned. Procurement 6.09 Procurement arrangements are summarized in the table below: US$ Million TOTAL Project Element ICB LCB OTHER COST 1. Civil Works 8.0 0.9 - 8.9 (6.9) (0.8) (7.7) 2. Furniture/Equipment/Vehiales 3.8 0.5 - 4.3 (3.4) (0.4) (3.8) 3. Paper and Printing Materials 1.0 0.2 - 1.2 (0.9) (0.1) (1.0) 4. Technical Assistance - - 4.0 4.0 (2.7) (2.7) 5. Professional Services (A/E) - - 0.3 0.3 - - (0.2) (0.2) 6. Project Administration - - 0.3 0.3 (0.2) (0.2) TOTAL 12.8 1.6 4.6 19.0 (11.2) (1.3) (3.1) (15.6) Note: Figures in parentheses are the respective amounts to be financed by the Association. 6.10 Contracts for civil works, furniture, equipment and vehicles would be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding in accordance with Bank Group guidelines for procurement. However, civil works contracts costing less than US$250,000 equivalent each and contracts for furniture and equipment costing less than US$50,000 each (an aggregate not to exceed US$1.0 million) would be by competitive bidding, advertised locally and in accordance with local procedures satisfactory to the Bank Group.  - 30 - 6.11 Standardized sketch designs, draft tender documents and master lists of furniture, equipment and vehicles indicating proposed grouping and estimates of costs would be reviewed by the Bank Group staff. Items would be grouped to the extent practicable to encourage competitive bidding and to permit bulk procurement. Review of tender evaluation documents prior to award would be required only for contracts above US$250,000 equivalent for civil works and US$50,000 equivalent for furniture, equipment and other materials. 6.12 Where international competitive bidding procedures are used: (a) domestic manufacturers of furniture and equipment would be allowed a preference of 15 percent, or the existing rate of import duties, whichever is lower, over the c.i.f. price of competing foreign suppliers; and (b) if applicable, qualified domestic contractors would be allowed a preferential margin of 7.5 percent over prices of competing foreign contractors. Disbursement 6.13 Disbursement would be on the basis of: (a) 85 percent of expenditures for civil works; and (b) 100 percent of foreign expenditures and 80 percent of local expenditures for furniture, equipment, vehicles and other materials, technical assistance, studies, professional services and seminars; and (c) 70 percent of expenditures for operating costs excluding salaries. 6.14 All disbursements will be fully documented except those for furniture, equipment, vehicles and other materials together with studies, local seminars and operating costs, contracts for which value would be below US$10,000 equivalent. These would be made against Statements of Expenditures (SOE), documentation for which would not be submitted for review but would be retained by the Borrower at the SFCS and would be the subject of an annual audit by auditors acceptable to the Bank Group. In addition, the documentation should be readily available for review by Bank Group representatives during the course of project supervision. The Borrower shall not submit applications for reimbursement valued below US$20,000 equivalent. Based upon experience in previous Bank Group financed education projects, the SFCS has satisfactory institutional capacity to use SOE and manage the Special Account. Disbursements financed by IDA are expected to be completed by December 31, 1991 (Annex 1, S-3). 6.15 The typical disbursement profile for Rwanda is eight years. The ongoing Second IDA Education Project is expected to be completed on schedule in about four and one-half years. Because of the experience eeveloped in the past project, a five and one-half year disbursement profile is considered reasonable. 6.16 Special Account. In order to ensure that funds for the project would be made available when needed, a Special Account in US Dollars operated by the SFCS, would be established at the National Bank of Rwanda with an initial deposit by IDA of about US$400,000 - to cover about three months of expenditures -- which would be withdrawn from the Credit  - 31 - account. The account would be replenished on the basis of documentary evidence, to be provided to the Bank Group by the SFCS, of payments made from the account for goods and services required for the project. Opening of the Special Account into which IDA would deposit an initial amount would be a condition of Credit effectiveness (para. 8.03). 6.17 Project Advance Account. In order to ensure that the Government's counterpart funding would also be available when needed, the Government would establish a separate Project Advance Account into which it would deposit, at the beginning of each quarter, its share of project costs. Establishing the Project Advance Account and depositing the initial amount of RwF 500,000 would be a condition of Credit effectiveness (para. 8.03). In any case, this account should be replenished so that it would nut at any time be lower than RwF 50,000. Auditing 6.18 Annual auditing would be required for all expenditures financed under this project, with particular attention to those expenditures reimbursed under certificates of expenditures. Auditing would be performed by auditors acceptable to the Bank Group, and applying satisfactory auditing procedures. Audit reports would be submitted yearly to the Bank Group for the project for the School Supplies Revolving Fund, the Special Account (para. 6.16), the Project Advance Account (para. 6.17) and IMPRESCO, within six months following the end of the Borrower's fiscal year. To strengthen the accounting capacity of the SFCS/PIU, five staff/years of technical assistance for an expert adviser/accountant is included in the project (para. 6.02). This specialist, in addition to managing the textbook distribution element would also coordinate the project accounts and oversee the accounts of IMPRESCO and the textbock supply and distribution component. He would also improve the accounting methods and train local counterparts. VII. BENEFITS AND RISKS Benefits 7.01 The textbook supply and distribution component would have an important pedagogical benefit in significantly improving quality of primary and post-primary (CERAI) education, through providing teaching manuals for some 20,000 teachers and increasing textbook provision from the present 12 percent to 50 percent (one set per two) for up to a million students in the medium term. 17/ The cost-sharing replenishment scaeme to be introduced simultaneouslTywould have an important fiscal benefit in yielding about US$2.0 million yearly (1985 prices) and thus, not only help reader textbook supply and distribution self-sustaining, but also reduce Government financial responsibility in this regard. The technical and vocational education elements both should have economic benefits through providing yearly outputs of 36 engineering technicians, 60 skilled workers and 240 17/ Practically all student beneficiaries from the project may be categorized as poor.  - 32 - other vocationally trained personnel and thus alleviate acute shortages of trained labor force personnel and provide suitable candidates for higher education. Introduction of training in heavy duty mechanics and plant maintenance constitute important additions. Locatlon of the TSS in Kibuye should positively influence development in a town having potential as a pole of growth. The eventual provision of evening classes in the NVTC in Kigali would lead to greater utilization of resources and in the medium term, engender much-needed improved standards in vocational skills among the city population. The technical assistance element of the project would add to institution building in the MINIFOP and MINEPRISEC. Local planning and programming capacity should be established by the project in the MINIFOP and training expertise in the NVTC. Adequate management capacity for textbook supply and distribution and institutional administration should be established in the MINEPRISEC and TSS, respectively. In addition, expertise for quality Improvement in primary and CERAI schools should be improved by fellowship training and studies included. Finally, Bank Group support in this project enhances the continuing dialogue among the Government, the Bank Group staff and donor agencies on development of the education sector in a more pragmatic and cost-effective manner which is expected to have a catalytic effect in attracting coordinated support from donor agencies. Risks 7.02 Questions concerning Rwandese management and implementation capability constitute the two main risks. Efficient management of the textbook scheme will require effective coordination on planning, programming and execution between BPERAI and IMPRESCO in Kigali and close monitoring of distribution in the regions. Introduction of a book-usage fee payment by students and handling of fees before their deposit in the School Supplies Revolving Fund, also need close monitoring. Recruitment of a qualified expert adviser/accountant for five years, who would also train Rwandese counterparts should serve to minimize these risks. In addition, funds are included in the project for field monitoring of distribution and cost-sharing. The TSS and NVTC would be modern institutes having valuable, sophisticated equipment and will require high standard institutional management. Improvement of internal efficiency aspe-ts for the TSS and avoidance of legal delays in the establishment of the National Vocational Training Board for the NVTC will also require close monitoring. To assure appropriate management, capable specialists would be provided under the project to launch the institutes efficiently and train Rwandese counterparts to maintain established standards upon their departure. Despite the above-mentioned risks, this project is worthy of IDA support.  - 33 - VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS 8.01 Daring negotiations, the Government provided assurances that: (a) an evaluation of progress in achieving an agreed action program for improvement of quality and cost-effectiveness would be provided for Bank Group staff review by not later than July 31 each year (para. 2.18); tb) IMPRESCO shall recruit an expert adviser/accountant and expert(s) in printing techniques, having qualifications satisfactory to the Bank Group, to be in post by not later than January 1, 1987 (para. 4.04); (c) no major textbook revision in primary school or post-primary curricula would be made for a period of five years following March 31, 1987 (para. 4.05); (d) an audit report for IMPRESCO 1985 accounts would be prepared by July 31, 1986 by independent auditors acceptable to the Bank Group and a conformed copy of this report would be transmitted earliest thereafter for Bank Group staff review (para. 4.07); (e) a School Supplies Revolving Fund for collected textbook fees would be established in the NBR and replenished at the start of each school year and a MINEPRISEC circular defining the student fees cost-sharing scheme would be issued by not later than June 30, 1988 (para. 4.08); (f) a management committee (Comite d'Exploitation) in IMPRESCO, having representatives of the HINEPRISEC, HINIFTN a-ad NBR would prepare quarterly reports for the Remera aep8t, IMPRESCO and the Revolving Fund which would be incorporated in the semi-annual reports transmitted for Bank Group staff review and comment (para. 4.09); (g) the studies to be undertaken under the project would be started earliest in accordance with terms of re'-rence agreed with the Bank Group and that the studies would be completed by not later than December 31, 1990 (para. 4.10); (h) the syllabi for fourth, fifth and sixth year programs for heavy duty mechanics and plant maintenance would be provided for Bank Group staff review by not later than June 30, 1988 (para. 4.12); (i) satisactory recruitment proposals for the TSS Director and Deputy Director would be transmitted for Bank Group staff review and comment by not later than September 30, 1988 and that they would be appointed by not later than January 1, 1989 (para. 4.13);  - 34 - (j) a proposed contract commitment by all fellowship trainees to work for a minimum of five successive years in these institutes upon their return from training, would be transmitted for Bank Group staff review and comment by not later than June 30, 1987 (para. 4.17); (k) satisfactory recruitment proposals for the NVTC technical adviser, planner and extension experts and their Rwandese counterparts would be transmitted for Bank Group staff review and coument by not later than July 31, 1986 and the two former would be appointed and in post by not later than January 31, 1987 and the latter by January 31, 1988 (para. 4.17); and (1) the SFCS would be adequately staffed and maintained during project implementation, including the appointment of a qualified Rwandese accountant (para. 6.02). 8.02 As a ccndition of disbursement for the civil works element of the TSS, the Government would provide for Bank Group review and comment satisfactory proposals (based upon a study of Kicukiro TSS attrition) to introduce Improved procedures to ensure internal efficiency for Kibuye TSS (para. 4.13). 8.03 As conditions of Credit effectiveness: (a) UNDP would enter into a formal agreement (satisfactory to the Bank Group) with the Government for the provision of technical assistance to the NVTC (para. 5.10); and (b) the Government would provide information to the Bank Group that: (i) a Special Account had been established in the NBR as well as a Project Advance Account of RwF 500,000; and (ii) an architectural firm acceptable to the Bank Group had been selected to prepare a study of the construction of the NVTC (paras. 5.10, 6.06, 6.16, and 6.17). 8.04 Subject to the above agreements and conditions, the project constitutes a suitable basis for an IDA Credit of SDR 13.5 million (US$15.6 million equivalent) to the Rwandese Republic.  RWANDA STRUCTURE OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM PRE-1979 STRUCTURE PRIMARY (a) Artiaon Edjcation 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(b) ArtiaancaTrairingfr op midDOmeft Arts forGris (c) Techical Educotion (d) 3-Yea Coivnnn Cs Folagd by two. Tvee ad For Yew Coms ncludng Moden Ka1flTe&Ycc Eco tion and Tewcwe TSg (a) Classica Humanities RffORMED STRUCTIURE (a) _ _ _ _ _ _ -~~~~~~~~EmowiSocia Scaenoe AGE 7 8 ~~~~ 10 11 1 _2 1J 1 1 1. 1_ 1_ 20-r ()-Science Low - Scwece PRIMARY-MoenTcis AGE 7 a c o 10 11 '12 13 14 IS '16 1 7 la 19 20 o Posl.Primo.y Vocational in CERAI (Centre Cleneagnenr*trxot Arbsonol nteobe) .b0) Seconday Educotlon for (b) Sslled Clattvman Le"l (A3) NuLing. AgroyeternVy (c) Mlddle Tochnician Agro-yetetlnory. Forestry. Comnmercs. rxAng. Nutntlon and (d) Midle-We Technrcion (2), Scence. Humonmes and Teacher Troai n * Selected godua?es from Secondorv School enter Higher Educution In 1981 the Ntional Pedogogicol Insfitute was transferred trom the NLSR Butre campus to fobm o second compAus d the NUR of Ruhe ng orld B - 27458  RWANDA EDUCATION III Education PyramId 1984 L AP/ GfOM/ Mdr/ Fem/mI Nmmu Ag G6de CeMn Fmo 26 20 41 1 42 25