Ecuador - Second Agricultural Credit Project

Docet Of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. P-4369-EC MEMORANDUM AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN IN AN AMOUNT EQUIVALENT TO US$48.0 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF ECUADOR FOR A SECOND AGRICULTURAL CREDIT PROJECT August 27, 1986 of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CUREer RuIVAL.NrS Currency Unit: Sucre (SI.) July 1986 (Unified Rate) US$1 - S/.110.0 S/. 1 - US$.009 8/. 1,000 - US$9.09 In August 1986, the Government began to float the exchange rate. FISCAL TEAR January 1 to December 31 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 hectare (ha) = 10,000 a2 - 2.47 acres 1 kilometer (km) = 1,000 m - .62 miles 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.2 pounds I metric ton (mt) = 1,000 kg = 2,200 pounds 1 quintal (q) = 100 pounds = 45.4 kg 1 liter (1) = 0.26 gallons ABBREVIATIONS BCE - Banco Central del Ecuador (Central Bank of Ecuador) BNF - Banco Nacional de Fomento (National Development Bank) IDB - Inter-American Development Bank PB - Private Banks or Finance Companies FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY MEMORANDUM AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED LOAN TO THE REPUBLIC OF ECUADOR FOR A SECOND AGRICULTURAL CREDIT PROJECT 1. The following report on a proposed loan to Ecuador for US$48 mil- lion is submitted for,approval. It would help finance a second agricultural credit project. The proposed loan would be repayable over 17 years, includ- ing 4 years of grace, at the Bank's standard variable interest rate and charges. The Government, through the Central Bank (BCE), would onlend the loan proceeds in local currency to the National Development Bank (BNF) and to private banks. These intermediaries would onlend to final beneficiaries at market interest rates and terms of 2 to 12 years. BCE would charge flexible onlending rates adequate to permit BNF to earn an initial spread of 8 percent and private banks 5 percent p.a. The Government would assume the exchange rate risk. 2. Background. In 1970, agriculture accounted for about 33 percent of GDP, 90 percent of export earnings, and employed 65 percent of the economi- cally active population. During the next decade, influenced by the discovery and export of petroleum, the relative importance of agriculture declined; and by 1983 the sector (including fisheries) accounted for only 12 percent of GDP, 22 percent of export earnings and 50 percent of the economically active population. In general, average yields have not increased for major crops, and except for livestock production, forestry, and the shrimp industry, agri- culture has grown slowly. The growth rate of real value added for the major export crops--bananas, coffee, and cocoa--has been about 1.7 percent p.a. from 1970 to the early 1980s. The other traditional crops which constitute Ecuador's food production have grown at only 0.6 percent p.a., well below the rate of population growth of 2.8 percent. While the comparative advantage of Ecuador's traditional exports remains strong, domestic resource cost calcula- tions indicate that Ecuador also has a comparative advantage in rice, hard corn, cotton and soybeans, products which are currently imported or only oc- casionally exported in years of surplus. In the past, agricultural develop- ment and production were constrained by inadequate public support and by low investment levels induced by price, exchange rate and interest policies which no longer stimulated agriculture. The administration that took office in August 1984 formulated a new development program designed to: (a) raise farm prices; (b) progressively eliminate consumer and producer subsidies; (c) achieve realistic exchange rates; (d) make interest rates adjustable and positive; (e) emphasize efficient import substitution and export expansion; (f) strengthen agricultural support services; (g) reduce Government interven- tion in the marketing system; and (h) improve terms of trade for agricul- ture. Good progress has been made in each of these, and the Bank is monitor- ing further actions in the context of an Agricultural Sector Loan approved in FY86. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance or their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. - 2 - 3. Project Performance Audit Reports of past livestock credit projects found them well-managed, improving productivity and output on participating ranches. However, there were deficiencies in the accounts and internal con- trols of BNF, the principal participating bank. The most recent agricultural credit project (Loan 1459-EC) was closed in September 1985. Its performance was less than satisfactory and it had to be extended for two years. The main causes for delays were: (a) inadequate counterpart funding; (b) declining performance of a coordinating uni:; and (c) availability of competing, lower interest rate funds which caused delays in disbursements. In the design of the proposed loan, these problems have been addressed: (I) a savings mobil- ization program will help BNF generate its own funds; (ii) considerable other institutional strengthening of BNF is also planned; and (iii) onlending terms of the proposed loan will be competitive with other sources of credit. 4. Project Objectives. The proposed project would: (a) expand pro- duction, especially of exportable products, and increase farmers' profitabil- ity through on-farm investments; (b) improve operating efficiency of public and private banks in agricultural lending and enhance domestic resource mobi- lization capacity, and (c) stimulate the participation of private banks in agricultural lending. 5. Project Description. The project, to be carried out over seven years, would: (a) establish a program for medium- and long-term loans through BNF and private banks to finance on-farm investments for crop and livestock production, and marketing infrastructure at the farm level; and (b) provide institutional strengthening to BNF aimed specifically at strengthening the capability of the Departments of Credit and Finance. It would also train BNF staff, both locally and abroad, in the areas of: savings mobilization, credit promotion, programming and planning, accounting, audit- ing, reporting, project formulation and subloan appraisal, approval and supervision. To increase rural resource mobilization and lending, eight new BNF branch offices would be opened and 42 existing ones would receive addi- tional equipment. Overall, credit operations would be improved with the pro- curement of 300 vehicles for loan generation and supervision, and 15 mobile banking units to serve farmers in areas difficult to reach. BNF would, in turn, help train staff of private banks in subloan appraisal and supervision. 6. The total project cost would be about US$93 million, with a foreign exchange component of US$48 million (52 percent). A breakdown of costs and the financing plan are shown in Schedule A. Amounts and methods of procure- ment and disbursement, as well as a disbursement schedule, are shown in Schedule B. A timetable of key project processing events and the status of Bank Group operations in Ecuador are given in Schedules C and D, respective- ly. A map showing BNF offices and physical regions of the country is also attached. The Staff Appraisal Report, No. 6143-EC dated August 15, 1986 is being distributed separately. 7. Rationale for Bank Involvement. As a result of the present Admin- istration's sector adjustment program, supported by the Agricultural Sector Loan, the economic efficiency and profitability of the sector is improving. Consequently, there is an intensification of the demand for investments in the areas of production, marketing and exports of agricultural goods. The - 3 - recent application to the sector of a system of adjustable interest rates for long-term loans and the support by the proposed project of a savings mobili- zation program to capture local savings for subsequent investments in the sector are aspects which would enhance the incentives for financial entities to initiate lending for development credit in agriculture. However, the re- cent decline in oil prices has affected significantly Ecuador's financial capacity to take full advantage of these opportunities. The proposed loan would help to remedy the country's current lack of resources to meet the ris- ing demand for agricultural investments and complement Bank support of agri- cultural and financial sector policy reforms. 8. Agreed Actions. The Government has agreed on the following ac- tions: (i) Central Bank handling of rediscounting, as the fiscal agent of the borrower; (ii) BNF assistance to the private banks in subloan evaluation and monitoring for an initial period; (iii) employment of an expert to help design a resource mobilization program for BNF and semiannual joint reviews on the adequacy of the resource mobilization efforts; (iv) maintenance of positive, adjustable, unified interest rates for the sector, to be reviewed semiannually beginning April 1, 1987; and (v) maximum accumulated subloan limits of US$400,000 and US$600,000 for individual farmers and farmers' asso- ciations, respectively. 9. Justification. It is expected that the project would cause an in- crease in production of a range of products leading to significant foreign exchange earnings/savings. There would also be intangible benefits resulting from institutional strengthening, and increased farm employment estimated at 1.7 million incremental man/days, including income increases for 5,000 farm families of which about 40 percent would be small-scale farmers. Financial rates of return range from 30 to 37 percent. 10. Risks. The main risk is the sustainability of the macroeconomic adjustment program through which the Government is reactivating agriculture. The Administration has to date moved successfully forward with its reforms which are supported and monitored by both the Bank and the Fund. 11. Recommendation. I am satisfied that the proposed loan would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Bank and recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed loan. Barber B. Conable President Attachments August 27, 1986 Washington, D.C. -4- Schedule A Estimated Costs: I/ Local Foreign Total (US$ million) A. Credit On-Farm Investments 2/ 38.4 36.8 75.2 Incremental Short-Term 5.5 0.6 6.1 B. Institutional Strengthening Vehicles and Equipment 0.1 8.4 8.5 Furniture 0.3 0.2 0.5 Local Training 0.6 0.3 0.9 Foreign Training - 0.2 0.2 C. Base Cost 44.9 46.5 91.4 Physical Contingencies 0.0 0.5 0.5 Price Contingencies 0.1 1.0 1.1 Total Project Cost 3/ 45.0 48.0 93.0 Financing Plan: Local Foreign Total (US$ million) IBRD 0.0 48.0 48.0 Participating Banks 31.0 - 31.0 Farmers 14.0 - 14.0 45.0 48.0 93.0 1/ Rounded. Taxes excluded because BNF seeking exemption from duties. / Includes marketing infrastructure and related services at the farm level. 3/ Prices as of July 1986. -5- Schedule 3 PROCURENRT Icocurement Element Procurement Method ICB LCP Other Total a/ ------------(US$ million) --------- On-farm Investments - - 75.2 75.2 (39.2) (39.2) Vehicles and Equipment 6.7 2.0 0.9 9.6 (6.7) (1.6) (8.3) Furnitute 0.2 0.4 0.6 Local Training - 1.1 1.1 (0.2) (0.2) Foreign Training - - 0.3 0.3 and Consultants JQ3) (0.3) Total 6.7 2.2 77.9 86.8 (6.7) (1.6) (39.7) (4B.0) Note: Values in parentheses reflect amuunts estimated to be financed by the Bank. a/ Force Account or direct contracting for acquisition under US$30,000. DISBURSEBETS Category Amount % (US$000) Subloans 39,000 65% for BNF; 75% first year, 65% second year and 60% thereafter for private banks. Goods 7,500 100% of foreign and 80% of local expenditures. Consultants Services 100 100% (of expenditures) Foreign Training 200 100% (of for. expends.) Local Training 200 20% (of expenditures) Estimated Disbursements 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 ----------- (US$ millions by Bank FY)------------ Annual 3.7 7.9 8.3 7.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 3.0 Cumulative 3.7 11.6 19.9 27.0 33.0 39.0 45.0 48.0 -6- Schedule C ECUADOR SECOND ACRICULTURAL CREDIT PROJECT Timetable of Key Project Processing Events (a) Time Taken to Prepare Project: 18 months (b) Project Prepared by: BNF/PAO/UNDP (c) First Bank Mission: March 1985 (d) Appraisal Mission: October 1985 (e) Negotiations: July 7-11, 1986 (f) Planned Date of Effectiveness: February 1987 (g) List of Relevant PCRs and PPARs: Loan 173-EC (Livestock) PPAR of October 21, 1975 Credit 222-EC (Livestock) PPAR of December 28, 1979 Schedule D Page 2 of 2 B. STATEMENT OF IFC INVBSTMENTS (as of March 31, 1986) Type of (amount in US$ million) Fiscal Year Business Loan Equity Total 1966 & 1972 La Internacional, S.A. Textiles 3.7 0.2 3.9 1969, 1973, Compania Financiera 1975 & 1977 Ecuatoriana de Desarrollo 1981, 1982 S.A. (COFIEC) DFC - 0.5 0.5 1976 Sociedad Agricola e Indus- trial San Carlos, S.A. Sugar Mill 5.0 - 5.0 1978, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984 Cemento Nacional (CEM) Cement 12.0 1.0 13.0 1980 Adamas Andina, S.A. 1/ Pulp and Paper 3.3 1.0 4.3 1981 Compania Minera Toachi, S.A. Mining 1.0 0.3 1.3 Total gross commitments 25.0 3.0 28.0 Less cancellations, terminations, repayments and sales 21.1 1.7 22.8 Total commitments now held by IFC 3.9 1.3 5.2 Total undisbursed - - 1/ Cancelled by letter of April 26, 1982 -7- Schedule D Page 1 of 2 TH STATUS OF BAM GROUP OPERATIONS IN ECUADOR A. STATMNT OF BANL LOANS AND IDA CREDITS (am of March 31, 1986) ---US$ million--- Amount Loan or (less cancellations) Credit Fiscal Number Year Borrower Purpose Bank IDA Undisbursed 22 loans and 6 credits fully disbursed 277.3 37.5 - 1429 1977 Ecuador Highways 17.5 - 4.4 1644 1978 Ecuador Rural Development 18.0 - 12.7 1776 1980 Ecuador Guayaquil Urban Development 31.0 - 17.9 1882 1980 Ecuador Highways 55.0 - 32.1 1991 1981 Ecuador Rural Development 16.9 - 14.8 2044 1982 Ecuador Rural Development 16.1 - 14.2 2096 1982 Ecuador DPC 60.0 - 3.0 2135 1982 Ecuador Housing 35.7 - 25.8 2171 1982 Ecuador Education 16.0 - 14.6 2221 1983 Ecuador Small Scale Enter- prise Credit 40.6 - 3.4 2516 1/ 1985 Ecuador Public Sector Management 6.0 2/ 6.0 2626 1986 Ecuador Agriculture Sector 100.0 80.0 2672 1/ 1986 Ecuador Industrial Finance 115.0 115.0 2673 T/ 1986 Ecuador Third Small-Scale Enterprise Credit 30.0 30.0 Total 835.1 37.5 of which has been repaid 175.8 2.9 Total now outstanding 659.3 34.4 Amount sold 3.2 of which has been repaid 3.2 - - Total now held by Bank and IDA 659.3 34.4 Total undisbursed 373.9 I/ 2516-EC effective July 30, 1986; 2672-EC effective August 21, 1986; and 2673-EC not yet effective. 2/ USSB million originally Rpproved. Amount subsequently reduced at Government's request. Sor Loren2 n en C 0 L 0 MA B 1 A FC - E5MERA LtS \i -noN..~- GC.AMLGO5 '5LAND5 Carnarne Fa ArC- C San Mateo Ao ESMERA IDAS - Copfe - Sre kld C rdece~~~~... ..n.,.. one utor JAMA p - Ef CarmnenLoF-4 sm s*bafin d Ct AIfor hw~dC k MAN Bl N A P 0 Bkhba de Caroquez oSon e 5 Jconro Chra e Colcera ., Buena Fe- Manta Vel ; *bar Racofuerte 4 VE. «R OVIEJO Ayccucho Pto de Ccyo'N ipiip rgBlaSur rPuewo PASTAZA:' SPalon Ånccs V'eoR f tro Cwdenn San Juan - BAR3AH Pedro Carb -4 -4-m-v-d- -- Lo UAYAUL Nara Lueflöd -- ckog S1 a EI-S-tTau S i~ECUADOR AGR ICULTURAL CREDIT Il PROJECT Rea~nd ernca 'ege 0 rnce Teod P~ ROAD O --uoua~ w mACHALA- Gac Po Bylad rO Fasa SECONDA"Y ROADS& P~ve Huaq Sa Ro La ? a Pol tos Enece~rs Casa (Zapap ktOdnekc Omm CN9 1 ~~CHIPE * 1 fl ' l P E R U Aufs .. - ew fl ffl rv g International Bank for Reconstruction and Development FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOR For consideration on EXECUTIVE September 16, 1986 DIRECTORS' MEETING R86-223/1 FROM: The Deputy Secretary August 27, 1986 ECUADOR: Second Agricultural Credit Project As referred to in the Secretary's memorandum (R86-223) on a proposed Second Agricultural Credit Project, attached is the Country Brief on Ecuador. Distribution: Executive Directors and Alternates President Senior Vice Presidents Senior Management Council Vice Presidents, IFC Directors and Departmenc Heads, Bank and IFC This document has a restricted distribution and may be used hy recipieris only in the performance of their oflicial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World BaMn auhorizafion. Country Brief ECUADOR I. THE ECONOMY 1. The most recent economic report on Ecuador, Report No. 5676-EC en- titled "Ecuador: Public Investment Review," was distributed to the Executive Directors on December 16, 1985. An earlier general economic memorandum, Report No. 5094-EC entitled "Ecuador: An Agenda for Recovery and Sustained Growth," was distributed on October 5, 1984. The subsequent paragraphs re- flect those reports as well as the findings of a March 1986 economic mission to Ecuador. Annex I provides the main social and economic indicators. Background 2. While Ecuador began the 1970s as one of the least developed Latin American countries, the discovery, exploitation and subsequent world price hikes of oil placed it firmly among the middle-income countries of the hemi- sphere by the end of the decade. Oil changed Ecuador's economy dramatical- ly. Two-thirds of 1970 export revenues were from agriculture; by 1980, near- 1r two-thirds were from petroleum and only a quarter was from traditional agricultural crops. Real GDP grew an average 9 percent a year in the 1970s. With this rapid income growth, much social progress was made in spite of rapid population groth (2.8 percent). Significant increases in education enrollment were achieved, infant mortality was halved, and life expectancy increased by 15 years. 3. Resources generated from oil exploitation were, in general, used to improve priority physical infrastructure needed for development: trunk roads, pipelines, airports, seaports, power generation. In addition to financing much of public sector investment, these oil revenues were channeled through Central Bank credit to the private sector. However, the Government's role grew: total public expenditures rose from 24 percent of GDP in 1973 to 34 percent in 1982. Government subsidies--to urban consumers, fuel and elec- tricity users, import-substituting industries, exporters--grew in impor- tance. The public sector's use of external borrowing also grew; medium- and long-term debt outstanding rose from around US$600 million in 1977 to USS7.1 billion in 1985. Nevertheless, the country's institutions remained weak. Moreover, the benefits of growth not only created severe structural problems, they were also unevenly distributed: a sizeable middle class emerged but about 40 percent of the urban and 65 percent of the rural population still live in poverty. 4. By 1984 over half of fiscal revenues came from petroleum. Since much of the oil revenues were earmarked, only 60 percent of General Govern- ment current revenues were channeled through the budget. Furthermore, the non-oil revenue effort was seriously weakened: income taxes represented less than 2 percent of GDP, while income and import taxes collected represented less than a quarter of their theoretical yield. Low internal"energy prices created distortions in consumption and investment patterns. -2- 5. Further structural problems developed as a result of the trade and exchange rate policies followed since the 1960s, which gave high protection to the industrial sector and permitted a steady real appreciation of the ex- change rate. These policies allowed real manufacturing output to rise 150 percent during 1972-1982, virtually all based on import-substitution. But with one or two exceptions, Ecuador's non-oil exports stagnated, and by 1982 two-thirds of foreign exchange came from oil exports. These underlying prob- lems made Ecuador's economy very vulnerable to world petroleum prices and to the availability of foreign credit lines, and helped bring the period of prosperity to an and by 1982-1983. Economic Performance In Recent Years 6. A recession developed when oil prices ended their real rise in 1981, foreign credit linee were reduced drastically in 1982, and natural disasters occurred in 1983. GDP dropped by 3 percent in the latter year. The Authorities initially borrowed heavily abroad to counteract the fall in oil prices, but as Ecuador's access to external funds dwindled, an IMF-sup- ported stabilization program became necessary. This program adjusted the ex- change rate, introduced mini-devaluations, and placed temporary restrictions on imports. Ecuador also undertook a debt rescheduling and initiated a fiscal austerity program. Inflation, however, surged to 50 percent in 1983 owing to flood-related output disruptions and the short-term effects of the adjustment measures. By 1984, economic growth resumed (4.1 percent of GDP), the public sector deficit was virtually eliminated, and inflation was halved. With new petroleum fields coming on stream, the volume of oil pro- duced rose 18 percent between 1983 and 1985. Non-oil exports, responding to improved exchange rates and better weather, also rebounded. 7. Following a close election, a new Administration took office in August 1984. Its economic philosophy is very much market-oriented. The new Government took a number of significant measures aimed at consolidating eco- nomic recovery and initiating structural reforms: further devaluations; in- creases in domestic fuel prices, electricity tariffs, and interest rates; re- moval of those emergency import controls introduced in 1982; promotion of direct foreign investment; and elimination of most administered prices in agriculture. It also negotiated a new IMF Stand-by, which focussed on achieving balance of payments equilibrium and a reduction in inflation. Sup- ported by the Stand-by, Ecuador unified two official exchange rates, intro- duced a new financial savings instrument--certificates of deposit--with market-determined interest rates, generated a public sector surplus, elimi- nated some prior import deposits, and tightened monetary control. The re- sults of all the above measures, together with continued recovery from the 1983 disasters, allowed 1985 GDP to grow by 3 percent, inflation to decline to a 22 percent annual rate, export volume to grow by 8 percent, net reserves to improve to nearly US$200 million (equivalent to one month of imports), and private savings mobilization by the financial sector to increase significant- ly, mostly through the new certificate of deposit. -3- 8. A prime target of the Government's program was its external debt, servicing of which would have consumed three-fourths of export earnings had further reachedulings not been arranged. The Government's multi-year debt rescheduling was finalized in December 1985. All principal falling due to commercial banks between 1985-1989 (about US$4.2 billion) was rescheduled, but virtually no fresh money was provided. Similarly, a multi-year arrange- ment was worked out with the Paris Club in April 1985, dealing with 1984 ar- rears and principal falling due in 1985-1987 (about US$400 million). Assum- ing world petroleum prices had remained about constant in real terms,-the Authorities-and Bank staff--believed Ecuador could have achieved GDP growth of 5-6 percent p.a. with a modest level of additional external financing re- stricted to official sources. 9. The precipitous fall in oil prices in early 1986, however, has sig- nificantly changed Ecuador's prospects. Petroleum revenues stand to decline by over US$850 million in 1986 alone (29 percent of 1985 merchandise ex- ports), while fiscal revenues from oil could fall by US$460 million (5 per- cent of GDP). Partly offsetting the oil export losses, agricultural exports are expected to bring in an additional US$250 million because of higher cof- fee prices and Ecuador's good policies during 1984-1985. Nevertheless, these net losses now mean that over a quarter of Ecuador's 1986 domestic savings and 28 percent of its exports will be needed for foreign interest payments. Outlook 10. Given the recent enormous loss of oil income, Ecuador is likely to suffer a recession in 1986. While the economic performance of Ecuador is highly sensitive to world petroleum prices, its prospects also depend on its ability to accelerate the implementation of structural reforms. 11. The country is, especially in its new petroleum fields, a rather low-cost producer, so low that six private oil firms have signed exploration contracts since 1985; one has found new oil and is testing its commercial feasibility. Staff projections indicate that oil prices are likely to in- crease to levels above US$15/bbl for 1987 and beyond (at 1987 prices). This would permit GDP to grow at rates above population growth after 1987, even if the current account deficit were restricted to about 3 percent of GDP. The debt-service ratio would be about 30 percent of exports of goods and serv- ices, assuming that the new borrowings were provided by official and commer- cial sources at attractive terms. At this relatively low oil price, and without major increases in oil exports, the Ecuadorian economy could begin only a slow recovery if the Government desired to improve its creditworthi- ness and maintain private consumption per capita at about the 1985 level. If oil prices reach a level around US$17/bbl in 1987 and thereafter (at 1987 prices), the economy could achieve higher GDP growth races-4 to 5 percent- even if the current account deficit were restricted to 2 percent of GDP. -4- 12. After oil prices, the greatest effect on Ecuador's recovery and creditworthiness will stem from the Administration's ability to aggressively implement adjustment policies already begun. These include a steady liberal- ization of many factor and product prices, reduction of industrial protec- tion, divestiture of inefficient state enterprises, maintenance of an attrac- tive exchange rate for exporters, increased utility tariffs and domestic petroleum prices, increased exploration for oil by both public and foreign private companies, and enhancing and diversifying sources of fiscal revenue. The new lower oil price prospects will also require greater efforts to re- strict the growth of public expenditures, both current and capital. 13. The IMF recently approved a new Stand-by arrangement for Ecuador. The Bank is also assisting the Authorities in developing a medium-term growth strategy as a possible vehicle to mobilize additional resources for Ecuador's development. Because of Ecuador's past determined efforts to adjust its economy despite political and economic difficulties, the likelihood that petroleum prices will rise from early 1986 levels, and the Government's posi- tive policy responses, we believe the country remains creditworthy for Bank lending. II. BANK GROUP OPERATIONS 14. Bank Group operations in Ecuador date back to 1954 when a loan was made for a first highway project. The Bank and IDA have extended 36 loans and 6 credits to Ecuador totalling US$872.6 million net of cancellations. As of March 31, 1986, US$498.7 million of this amount had been disbursed. The IFC has invested in five firms in Ecuador, including a large textile company, a sugar mill, a cement company, a mining enterprise and a development finance company. As of March 31, 1986, commitments for these operations amounted to US$28 million, of which IFC held US$5.2 million. Annex II contains a summary statement of Bank loans, IDA credits and IFC operations as of March 31, 1986. 15. Execution of Bank Group financed projects has often been hampered by weaknesses in Ecuador's implementation capacity, reflecting the insuffi- ciency of the country's public sector managerial and technical resources--a constraint that is still a serious obstacle to Ecuador's economic and social development. One effort directed at overcoming these weaknesses is the Public Sector Management Project (Ln. 2516-EC), which focusses on fiscal man- agement. Furthermore, in recent years, the Government and Bank staff have worked together to step up disbursement of Bank loans. Among other initia- tives, a Special Action Program for the country provided for revolving funds in five projects. As a result of these general efforts, disbursements rose from US$26 million in FY83 to US$83 million in FY86. The country has set up a monitoring committee for all externally financed projects which should re- inforce efforts to accelerate disbursements. The Bank is undertaking annual portfolio implementation reviews to detect and resolve specific obstacles to execution of Bank-financed projects; the first took place in November 1985, and conclusions highlighted the delays caused by complex procurement pro- cedures. The Public Sector Management Project will finance a study aimed at streamlining these procedures. -5- 16. Bank and IDA lending in Ecuador was originally concentrated in transport and power, where there were substantial bottlenecks to be over- come. To date, approximately 22 percent of Bank Group lending has been for infrastructure. Seven of the nine loans and credits extended for transport were to improve the country's road network and two were to help finance the expansion of the port of Guayaquil. Three power operations aimed at improv- ing generation and distribution facilities in Quito; the fourth power opera- tion aimed at improving efficiency of sector institutions. The first live- stock development loan, approved.in FY67, marked the beginning of a diversi- fication in the Bank Group's lending program away from infrastructure. Since then, the Bank Group has made 11 other loans and credits for agriculture and fisheries, nine loans to support industrial development, and two for pre-in- vestment studies. These productive sector loans comprise 65 percent of total Bank lending to Ecuador. Bank Group support for social sectors-education, water supply and urban development-now accounts for about 13 percent of total Bank lending. 17. Turning to the future, the Bank strategy is to support Government initiatives in macroeconomic and sector reforms over the medium term. This will be achieved through a series of sector and project loans aimed princi- pally at supporting policy improvements in energy, agriculture, and industry, and developing social and economic infrastructure. In addition to the design and adoption of adequate sector policies, Bank lending will emphasize the generation of exports and employment. Besides the Agricultural Credit Pro- ject recommended in this report, the Bank is preparing financial sector and petroleum operations. In addition to Bank lending, the IFC is analyzing several possible operations in agribusiness, fisheries, petroleum refining, hotels and merchant banking. 18. Substantial development financing has also been provided to Ecuador by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and, to a lesser extent, by other bilateral sources. IDB has been the single largest lender to Ecuador. Loans outstanding (including undisbursed) from IDB to the country as of December 31, 1985, totalled about US$1.2 billion equivalent. Past IDB lending has been concentrated in the power, agriculture, industry and transport fields. Kost of IDB's loans to the country have come from the Fund for Special Operations and normally carry concessional terms. It is likely that IDB will remain Ecuador's major de- velopment lender in the immediate future with power, agriculture and social- ly-oriented projects continuing to account for a large share of its lending program. By December 1985, USAID had about US$158 million in outstanding loans to Ecuador (including undisbursed). Its program concentrates on urban development, agriculture, health and the private sector. In addition to maintaining close contact with USAID, IDB and other aid agencies to assure compatibility of programs, Bank staff have undertaken a full public sector investment review which could serve as the basis for a meeting of Ecuador's creditors, possibly by end-1986. 19. As of December 31, 1985, the public and publicly-guaranteed medium- and long-term external debt of Ecuador totaled about US$7.1 billion. Of the former sum, the Bank group was owed 4.4 percent and the IDB 8 percent. Through 1990, the IBRD share of Ecuador's outstanding and disbursed public foreign debt is expected to remain below 10 percent, and the IBRD share of total public foreign debt service is projected to remain about 11 percent. ANNEX i T å LS 3A Page 1 of 6 ECUAD01 - SOC14A. Tll1CAT03 DATA rNEoi EdUA001 uhCEE iE 00UPs (WGN'hED AVLGEE>m oT (n EaT STMNAM /b 1960d L970a 5EAE LAT7.åéKc AM C en CAgump% am (ate q. M TOTAL 283.6 283.6 283.6 AGUOLTIAL 47.0 48.6 65.3 G1P 1E CARTA (U> .. .. 1OM0.0 z1759 2144.3 mET mffrtu. m CATwMA cLCu~AI O aLL KQUIVALNT) 131.0 223.0 571.0 993.6 åIL1.8 PowArlm am vzaL STATI=TCD PovILATIU.HZD-1EAE ( TMANDS) 4422.0 5844.0 a216.0 Vmmas P0fULATION (t 01 w'Ta) 3å.4 9. 46.4 67.7 47.3 POULATZM in YEAM 2000 <N LL) 12.6 STÅn A! POPULATION (HILL> 25.0 pFa oN KoNOM 1.9 POPULATION DENSITt PR SQ. e. 13.6 20.7 29.0 46.0 84.7 maR SQ. a. &ax. .Am 94.1 120.8 122.3 91.1 166.9 POPULATION am STRUCTIM (1) 0-14 TU 44.4 43.3 43.8 38.5 31.2 15-64 TIS 51.9 50.8 52.7 57.1 61.5 65 amD A^ 3.5 3.8 3.4 4.2 7.2 ~PD o wATIOI mU=f ATE () TOTAL 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 1.6 UEdA 4.9 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.7 c8DE Ix2 RAT! (PE TEQUS) 46.6 43.2 37.0 30.9 23.4 CmDE AT DATE (mE TMm ) 16.6 12.9 8.1 8.0 8.9 088 e mmoUT105 RATE 3.4 3.2 2.6 2.0 1.3 iAMELT PLAMIMIU ACCEWToI* AAL <timUs> .. 9.0 32.3 /c UsEc < OP HalliE WIEN) .. .. 40.0HA 45.3 vm am 98EXEG Zaz av y=s maD. in CAPITA (969-73-100) 104.0 101.0 82.0 109.6 109.1 n CAPITA SIPPLY OF CALO0E (X oP oEQUIEMITS) 78.0 89.0 97.0 113.2 131.5 FONEZ:s (<A~ Fn DAT) 48.0 52.0 50.0 69.4 92.4 OF wCIo ANZAL Am PULS 25.0 27.0 26.0 a 34.2 34.5 caLD (ArE 1-0> DM U2= 26.2 17.8 7.0 4.8 4.7 Lu: ECT. AT et=C (TEA88> 50.7 55.9 62.8 64.8 67.2 IMU T MaT. KATE (ME TaUs) 140.0 107.5 76.0 59.7 53.3 ACCES to SAPE U ATE (POP) TOTAL 12.3 4,g 34.0 65.0 /u 65.3 70.2 UR3AN 32.5 f7j 78.0 82.0 77 76.5 69.4 EUAL 1.9 Hi 7.0 16.0 T 44.2 57.0 ACCES o ECEA DISPOSAL (Z OF FONLATI) TOTAL .. 22.4 25.0 l6 56.3 59.6 E3AN5 .. -. 39.0 7c 73.4 65.9 EURAL .. .. 14.o 7é 25.5 47.6 PONLATION FE PETSICIAN 2570.0 2820.0 760.0 1909.2 1070.6 POP. ME1 NUESIS Ptu u 260.0 fr 1540.0 570.0 808.2 769.5 P0P. PM HSITAL S TOTAL 530.0 420.0 500.0 362.0 328.3 WM3AN 300.0 t 300.0 .. 422.0 201.9 kERAL .. 4440.0 .. 2716.7 4519.7 ADKINS Pem w5PITAL Mp .. 17.1 .. 27.5 20.0 AVERSZ 312F0 II0SfL.D 10aL 5.1 It 5.2 . .. UEBAS ........ AEAGE N. or PEs0N5n00 TOTAL 2.5 /f 2.3 I3E8AN 2.1 7- 1.9 . EAL. 2.8 7 2.6 P rTuE ar ~ =ELLIlS VIE ELCT. TOTAL 32.3 /t .. 45.0 iEIAaN 78.5 7 . a .5 ......å.. ANNEX i T A I 3a Page f 6 ECUADOR '- SOC2AL INbOCA'fCR DATA SIIEIT EUADoom ---.'UKEiENCE OR.OUPS (UEIGNTED AVERAGES) /a mT (NOST EC1NT E lTåuATE) iQ 190C l T IDDL ZKONE NIDDLC INCONM 19Gdb- 197d =Tna AT. AERICA 4 Ca EURMPE ADMUsTED pe0LuaN2 1ATz0s PIAME$ TOTAL 83.0 97.0 114.0 106.7 101.9 MAL. 87.0 99.0 116.0 108.5 106.2 PENALE 79.0 95.0 112.0 104.6 97.5 SgC~MWAIT: TOTAL 12.0 22.0 56.0 44.2 57.5 NALE 13.0 21.0 56.0 42.7 64.9 EA. 10.0 23.0 56.0 44.9 50.0 VCATIOMAL (2 or SECOI~IART) 29.0 11.l 12.3 13.3 21.0 MPI.-TrAi IOa PMan~ 39.0 34.0 36.0 29.9 25.1 hCOIMMt 11.0 14.0 15.0 16.7 19.1 PAssumE CAM/TOMUAM PmP 2.1 4.6 8.5 /h 46.0 54.2 UAI0 mCZi/TuOSA PO 38.4 289.9 356.8 328.3 170.7 TV RECIIVS/TcSAND POP 0.5 25.6 68.9 112.4 149.3 NEUSPAE (M"DAILT GEEAL KaIr T" MIOCLLTION pet Tä0sA=U POFULTOM 51.1 42.6 71.1 81.1 97.0 CINm ANUAL ATTEAI8C/CAPITA .. 3.8 .. 2.4 2.7 TOTAL LA4O0 POUC (TDUG) 144.0 188.0 2641.0 PEI (PEmC~IT) 16.3 19.1 22.0 23.6 36.3 AGIeLTUE (P0CE!r 57.4 51.0 51.6 /g 31.6 40.8 IUsTE (PEBCRIIT) 11.4 22.2 17.1 7 24.3 23.3 PAICPAtm LagE (~PCET) TOTAL 32.7 32.2 32.4 33.5 43.1 MALI 55.0 52.1 50.5 51.3 55.1 Per.~ 10.6 12.3 14.1 15.9 31.4 EO CnC DIIDUCe LT10 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.9 PERcwn! OP orIan inCONE RECITD fT RECHST 5E OF MIICSED .. .. . .. 1EGIIET 202 0 OFINIennLS .. .. . .. LUGMST 20& Op 1USonn, .. ..H..M. LOMES= 402 OP I SLS .. .. ESINAZED AlSOLU=E PolETE INCO LEVEL (USS MER CArITA) DUAB .. .. 470.0 1* 28.3 IUsAL .. .. 320.07 185.3 ESTEUAU RILATIVE POmE=IT Incm LEVEL (UM PEU CAMITA) 553.0 /a 519.8 EUiAz .. .. .359.7. ESTIATED POP. B. AggLUTE POE2TM In~ LEIL (E Rm .. .. 40.0 /. UA .. ..5. ...r AalLa nor APPLICALE x 0 T E i / The gump avmragm for ~mah indicacor are popuLattom- Slhgad årlchemeC mans. Covtrage of co~mmries mo the 1adleacarg dep~nds om avaiability of d~ua and la not Uatfore. /b Ulea otharwen moced. "Uta fot 1960" rftae to any ym becu 1959 and 1961; "Data for 1970" between 1969 med 1971: ad data for "%st Rccat etlace" batuman 1991 and 1983. la 1976; Id 1977: la 1980; If 1962; 1 Parcentage compud on the banta of total number of occupimd hoimaaing uni; /1978. JUNI. 1985 ANNEX I Page 3 of 6 DLFINIONS OF SOCIAL INDICATORS NOte: Al"hangh thedlau aeratwe fra sources generally judged the mot authmntatuve ad rhable, it should also be noted that they may not be internationaily comparable because of the lack of scandarduid delnisione and concepts used by different countries 1t collecting the data. The data dir, nonetheln. useful in descrbe orders or mageuude. indicate trend. and characterize canam major dilernces imteen countries. 11e rafereno roups aie (1) the same country group or the subject country and 21 a country group with somrewhat higher average ncome than the country group of the subiect coury iicept for -hgh Income Oi Exporters' group wher "Middle Income North Africa ard Middle Eaut" is choen because of atronier socioultural afndiml. In the rernce group data the aeragps ar population weighted arithmeic mans for each indicator ard shown only when majority of the cose in a group has data for that indicator. Siam the coverage o(countnen among the sdicators depisnd on the esniability ofdssand is not uniform. cansti mskbe enecaedl in relatg averages of one indicator to mother. These averages are only useful n compang ste value of one indicator as a time among the v tuntry and reerance groups. AREA (thousand sq.km.) Crue' Bink Re (per ikemad-Number oflive births In the year Tora--Total surface area comprising land area and inland waters per thousand or mid-yr population: 1960. 1970. and 1983 data, 1960, 1970 and 1983 data. Cnud Oa Rar (per thiummid)-Numbur of deaths In the year .rdItlaftral--Estimate of agricultural area used temporarily or per thousand of mid-year population. 1960. 1971 and 1983 data. permanendy for crops. pastures, market and kitchen gardens or to Greas Rersiuirn Rate-Averag nun,er of daughten a woman lie fallow. 1960. 1970 and 1982 data. will bear in he normal rpoductee pet!od if she expences priesient age-peciile fertility rates: usually five-year aveages ending GNP PER CAPITA (USS)-GNP per capita estimates at current in 1960. 1970, and 1983. market prices, calculated by same conversion method as World FwWy lhing-Ampeos, Amues(thiadrl-Annual num- Bank Atlas (1988143 basis); 1983 data. ber ofacceptors of birth-control devices under auspices of national ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA-Annual apparent family planning program. consumption of commercial primary encrgy (coal and lignite. Ame* Pisil-tw (peaser of markd wien-The percen- petroleum. natural gas and hydro-. nuclear and geothermal elec. tae of marrid women or child-bewing age who are practicing or tricity) in kilogram of oil equivalent per capita: 1960. 1970. a whose husbands are practicing any form ofcontraception. Women 1982 data. of child,bearing age are generally women aged 1549. although ror somen countries contraceptive usage is measured for other age POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS Ups. Tess? Pbptes, Mid-Yeaw (namiads-As of July I; 1960. 1970. FOOD AND NUTRION and 1983 data. fIde of Fee idias hrdel.Pr Cw*ha am90m7- iml-indez or per Urbs pdsdiam (perreat of tst.)-Ratio of urban to total capita annual production of all food commodities. Production population: different definitions of urban areas may affect compar- excludes aimal red and seed for agriculture. Food commodities ability of data among countris 1960. 1970. and 1983 data. include primary commodities (e.g. sugarcane instead of sugr) Odd peoiceis which are edible and contain nutrients (e.. coi and tea ar Plbpadaion in year 2WO-The projection of population for 2000. excluded): they comprise crals, root crops. pulses. oil weds. made for each economy separately. Starting with information on veetables. fmit nuts. sugarcane and sugar beets, livestock, and total population by age and sex. fertility rates, mortality rates, and livtock product. Aggregate production ofeach country is based international migration in the base year 1980. these parameters on national average producer price weights; 1961-5 70. and were projected at five-year intervals on the basis of generalized 1982 data. assumptions until the population became stationary. Pe Capita Sappiy ofCalorks (perceAtofrinraknerm)-Comput- Stationary popidrion-ls one in which age- and sex-specilic mor- ed from calorie equivalent of net food supplies available in country tality rates have not changed over a long period. while age-specific per capita per day. Available supplies comprise domestic produc- fertility rates have simultaneously remained at replacement level tion. imports less exports. and changes in sock. Net supplies (net reproduction ratce '). In such a population, the birth rare is exude animal feed, seeds for use in agriculture, quantities used in constant and equal to the death rate, the age structure is also food processing, and losses in diStribution. Requirementswere constant, and the growth rate is zero. The stationary population estimated by FAO based on physiological needs for normal activity size was estimated on the basis of the projected characteristics of and health considering environmental temperature, body weights. the population in the year 2000. and the rate of decline of fertility age and sex distribution of population. and allowing 10 pcent for rate to replacement level. waste at household level: 196. 1970 and 1982 dat Pbpulation Monsennam-is Use tendency for population growth to Per CaNa Sapply of Prosti. (irams per day-Protein content of continue beyond the time that replacenent-level fertility has been per capita net supply of food per day. Net supply of food is defined achieved that is. even after the act reproduction rate has reached as above. Requirements for all countries established by USDA unity. The momentum of a population in the year t is measured as p ror minim-mi aiiLmances of 60 gains of total protein per a ratio of the ultimate stationary population to the population in day and 20 grams of animal and pse protein, of which 10 grams sh year z. given the assumption that fertility remains at replace- should be animal proton- These staudards.are lower than those of ment level from year r onward. 1985 data. 75 grams of totra protein and 23 grans of animal protein as an dd c average for the world proposed by FA in the Third Wod Food Per sq.km.-Mid-year population per square kilometer (100 hec- Supply: ?6t. 1970 and 1982 data. tares) of total arms; 1960, 1970. and 1983 data. Pr Capira Peia Sapply Frm oaxial and Pus-Proten supply Per sq.kms. aricdrural im-Computed as above for agricultual tfood derived from animals and pulses in grams per day: 1%61-65, land only. 1960. 1970. and 1982 data. 1970 and 1977 data. piealuie Age Strusar (pacear-Children (0-14 years). work- CAid (as I-4) Death Rate (per theed)-Number ofdeaths of ing age (15-64 years), and retired (65 years and over) as percentage children aged 1-4 yea per thousand children in the same age of mid-year population* 19D. 1970. and 1983 data. group in a pven year. For most developing countries data derived Popuelies Growth Rate (prear)--torst--Annual growth rates of fron life tabls 1960. 1970 and 1913 data. total mid-year population for 1950-60. 1960-70. and 197-83. HEALTH Poplateian Growtk Ast (percear)-uris--Annual growth rates Life ErpMOa t Binh (yean-Number of years a newbor of urban population for 1950-60. 1960-70, and 1970-83 data, infant would live if prevailing patterns of mortality for all people ANNEX I age a oaf 6 at the time of of it birth ware to stay the same throughout no life: rwd-incpim a d secondriuvu l d uden or 19. 1970 and 1983 data. Ia s AMndky Rer (per thmasdl-Number of Infea who die teahs In the coreponing lvela. before reaching one year of ag per thouand ive births in a given yuar IN . 1970 and 1983 daa. CONSUMPON Aose Wo S* WSW (pMe if PCPlWNu-4004 wmim. OW Pnqw Ca 4pr thommi pela-Pampr can corn- rsvl-Number of people (total urban. and rural) with reasonable p. motor can oating lua than aght pers eucludit ambul- acm to eats water supply (inclde treated surface waren or ace hum and military vehicle. unstated but uncontamInated water such a that hom protected ag. ha rper thmua papairl)-All type or reven bomboles, spriag and sanitary wallk) as perceta of their epee* for radio broadcasts to gnea pubIc per thousand or population, tive populations. In an urban sm a public founstin or stadpou oudea mn-licensd reWven in countnea and in yars when located not mor dsa 2W meters from a house may be osided regitration or radio mats was in elect: data ror recent yan may a being hin reasonable acce of that house. In rural be compabe a mat contre abolihed lning. meaonable access would imply thas the housewife or Members of the houselbold do cot bate to spend a diaproporuounte pan of the day TVum's (pe doundpaliisl-TV roceivers rot broadcat in fAkig te fwy*gwatr ads.to general public par thousand population: meu ulicensd TV nch th E sgyas waer l p receives in countries ad in yuan when registration or TV tets wwre Acce soarmse Disped fpareea efpepulsels-e l, ad rns-Number of people (total, urban, and rural) served by escres dispoal a perentages of their respective populations. Vwp' Ckesmm r theusmo palilln-Showt the ever- Excrema disposal may include the collection and dispoal, with or ag arculaton of dally general interest nwspsIsmV dedned as a without treament, of human excretm and wate-water by water- periodical pubLication devoted primarily to rcoring gneral new borns mysem or the us of pit privies and amilar Installailons. It ia considered to be daily if It app at at fw time a Wek. Ppeton per Physte.-lopulatlon divided by numbei of pkc- Clue Anu Afeadse per Ca*a pe Ye-Bad on the taing p* -a qualifed from a medical school at universaty level. smber of tickets mold durig the )car, including admissions to lpeme pmr NwdeiPng ree-lbpulaedon divided by number of drive-i cua and mobile units. practncing nais and female graduate onum essasant nums. practical ursme ad amursing auilIaries. IApnm per Has! aed- er. ws.. and r TWu La ra thisawW-Econoically active pens. In (total. urban. and rura) divided by their respective number of cluding armed forces and unemployed but excluding housewives. hospital beds available in public and private. general and students. ec.. covering population all ages. Defpitianl in houpral adrehailiatin cnter. Hspialsare ambabmnts various countriem are not comparable. 190.1970 and 1983 data. hospitals ad rehabilitatdon centers. Hospitals are establishments permasendy staffed by at lest physician. Establishments prov- Fish (perom)-Femle labor forc a pau=ap of totl labor iding principally custodial care are not included. Rural hospitals force. however, include health and medical centers not permanently saffied Aguishm (jsrgeP-Labcr fame in farming forery. hunting by a physician (but by a medical assisant, aurse. Midwife. etc.) ad lishing us pervenage of total labor roxe 196, 1970 and 19B which olfer in-patient accommodation and provide a limited range data. of medical failties. Iustr (pffu-Labor fame in mining consnction. manu- Adission per fiespital hd-Total number of admissions to or facturing and electricity, water ad gas as percentage of total labor discharges from hospitals divided by the number of beds. force: 1960. 1970 ad IM data. pooldsahv Raw rp8womp-W4 awk. sdmkukartcipanoon HOUSING or activity rato ar computed as total, male. and female labor fam Apee Siu of HaeAll (psms pp A W)-WA w . as percentages of total male ad femle population or al ages idamL-A houmehold consms oa group of individuals who share respectively: 960.197. ad 1983 dat. These are based on ILO's living quanm and their m meals. A boarder or lodger may or panhcipation rates reflecting asex structure of the population, and may not be included in the household for statistical purposes. long time trend. A few estimates ar from national sources. me Nmber of Phamsm per R e r4l4 w, ad raI- Ecommir Depenillmy aiw-Ratio of population under 15. and Average number of persons per room in all urban. and rmral 65 and aver, to the working age population (those aged 15-M). occupied conventional dwellings. respectively. Dwellings exclude non-pennmant structures and unoccupied parts. INCOME D ETION hrciage of Dwanp wir Erekikry-av4 arks, ond rwral- PenemWe of Taot Dhpahsb inemw (bUh in caA ad kind)- Conventional dwellings with electricity in living quarters as percen- Accruing to percentile groups of households ranked by tota house tap of total. urban, and rural dwellings respectively. hold income. EDUCATION POVERTY TARGET GROUPS A4sed Ewe e Ran The following estimates are very approxime measures of poverty Pimnwy school - toal neak and fenJae-Gross total. mW al lees and should be interpreted with coasnderable caution. femic carolment of all ages at the prunery evel as percentage of Enr md4 ftw r ry ha e Led (UST per rpl-wlm respective pnmay school-age populations. While many countries ad rWI-Absolute poverty income leve is that income level consider primary school age to be 6-11 years. others do not. The below which a minimal nutritionally adequate diet plus essential differences in utry pracmces in the ages ad duration of school non-rood requirements is not affordable ar reflcrad in the mais Wn. For s-m countries with universal EsahumWed Rile Ptery Inewnt Lent FUM per emire)-arim educaion, gros enrollment may emcnd 100 percen since some ad tiut-Rural relative poverty income level is one-third or pupils am below or above the country's standard prnmary-school average per capita personal income of the country. Urban level is W. derived from the rural level with adjustment for higher cast of Secoirvy shoot - roa. sate and favose-Computed as above living in urban areas. secondary cducanon requires at least four years of approved pn- EnAe Pop.heRekw t bsou ffy brw ee& (per- mary mstrtion provides general. vocational. or teacher training cawm-a4a ad rra- Percent of population (urban and rl inserctiaos For pupils usually of 12 to 17 years of age; correspond- who ar "absolute poo' coce courses are generally excluded. VocariaAl Em9itmen (percent of uecmdrwy-Vocational institu- Comparative Analysis and Data Division tions include technical. industrial. or other programs which operate Economic Analysis and Projections Department independently or as departments of secondary insfirons June 1985 ii:l i {ns lk -iwa Ec¥ 9 1 1 L -. .- w 4Ntl -4 de me l s e t tss Jr se tt l iettl ea cou CKLLhh hu4t1L gyLm1 cm M 1 ~ ab -t e et !! E ;iIfle ct - t l e-- 1 ee e tree 1 ' ! f stlI~ ;ettf etl! LhbL LteLL s - ttE ttCCCLf 5 ' m'n. .- Lat.h.ht-b fl 1 gu p4 ää hh4z PP71 ;0ap. vu nu d!siVI'rlI if'tIr I i iii j"qq1 ill ø»t Le a! es! : e!È!!a Ii!!i 9 igb5 tl if iL L. b c . b U I ele~ gkIet! et ! a e pfe.: î Et?î I Mfl~ita :15 åaøS 3 el d e sfl !ecc es 0 s| e £ft *P!!EiÉ eÍÏ i %A t i& l Leø m I t- "%m- r ir 5 ø 0 00000 e ø fili