China - economic model and projections

 A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY 76174 CHINA Economic Model and Projections Annex 4 to CHINA Long-Term Development Issues and Options )H 1C JOINT BANK-FUND LIBRARY 130 9H HC430 .157 C48 1985 c.3 .157 :48 .985 tiW~~~ri·' Ch;... ., ;. 3 JLC067966  A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY CHINA Economic Model and Projections Annex 4 to CHINA Long-Term Development Issues and Options The World Bank Washington, D.C., U.S.A. Copyright © 1985 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development I THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing September 1985 Second printing November 1985 World Bank Country Studies are reports originally prepared for internal use as part of the continuing analysis by the Bank of the economic and related conditions of its developing member countries and of its dialogues with the governments. 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The most recent World Bank publications are described in the annual spring and fall lists; the continuing research program is described in the annual Abstracts of Current Studies. The latest edition of each is available free of charge from the Publications Sales Unit, Department T, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from the European Office of the Bank, 66 avenue d'Iena, 75116 Paris, &ance. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Main entry under title: China, economic model and projections. (Annex 4 to China, long-term development issues and options) (A World Bank country study) 1. Input-output tables--China. 2. China--Economic conditions--1976- --Mathematical models. 3. Economic forecasting--China--Mathematical models. I. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, II. Series: Annex ••• to China, long- term development issues and options ; 4. III. Series: World Bank country study. HC430.I57C48 1985 330.951'00724 85-17917 ISBN 0-8213-0603-0  Preface This report is one of six annexes to a main report entitled China: Long-Term Development Issues and Options. The complete list of annex volumes is: Volume 1 - China: Issues and Prospects in Education Volume 2 - China: Agriculture to the Year 2000 Volume 3 - China: The Energy Sector Volume 4 - China: Economic Model and Projections Volume 5 - China: Economic Structure in International Perspective Volume 6 - China: The Transport Sector (Note: Throughout this volume references to Annexes A, B, C and so on refer in that same order to Annex Volumes 1, 2, 3 etc.) The main report and annex volumes were prepared principally by members of an economic mission that visited China twice in 1984, for four weeks in February/March and for five weeks in April/May. In addition to Beijing, the mission went to three provinces: one coastal and relatively high-income (Jiangsu); one inland and average-income (Hubei); and one interior and low-income (Gansu). It received a lot of information, as well as numerous valuable comments and suggestions, from officials and others in these provinces, as well as from those in many central agencies and institutions, including: the State Planning and State Economic Commissions; tne Ministries of Finance, Agriculture, Coal, Communications, Education, Foreign Economic Relations and Trade, Labor and Personnel, Petroleum, Railways, Urban and Rural Construction, and Water Resources and Electric Power; the State Statistical Bureau; and various universities and research institutes of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. A series of seminars was organized by the Technical-Economic Research Center under the State Council. The generous and thoughtful assistance of all these people in China contributed greatly to the preparation of the reports. The Bank mission was led by Edwin Lim (mission chief) and Adrian Wood (deputy mission chief), and also consisted of William Byrd (econo- mist), Mats Hultin (senior education adviser), Erh-Cheng Hwa (senior econo- mist), Timothy King (senior economist), Jacques Yenny (senior transport econo- mist), Umnuay Sae-Hau (research assistant), Betty Ting (interpreter), Luc De Wulf (senior economist, International Monetary Fund), Benjamin King (consul- tant on statistics), Wouter Tims (consultant on planning and agriculture); and the following teams: Agriculture: J. Goering (team leader, April/May), Tom Wiens (team leader, February/March), Lang-Seng Tay (irrigation specialist), Lo-Chai Chen (fishery consultant) and Fred Bentley (consultant on arid agricul- ture); Energy: Roberto Bentjerodt (senior economist, coal projects), Weigong Cao (power engineer), Abdel El-Mekkawy (engineer, petroleum proj- ects), Robert Taylor (energy economist), and Darrel Fallen-Bailey (con- sultant); D.C. Rao (Assistant Director, Energy Department) led the team in the field; - 111 -  Industrial Technology: Gene Tidrick (team leader), Anupam Khanna (indus- trial economist), Reza Amin (industrial specialist), and Josephine Woo (research assistant); Location and Trade: Ian Porter (team leader), Vernon Henderson (consul- tant on urbanization), John Sheahan (consultant on industrial location and trade) and Samuel Ho (consultant on rural nonfarm activities). The following also contributed to the preparation of the reports: Wlodzimierz Brus (consultant on socialist economies), Gerhard Pohl (energy and transport), Robert Drysdale (Annex Vol. 1); Helena Ribe, Nikhil Desai (Annex Vol. 3); Shujiro Urata (Annex Vols. 4 and 5); and Lily Uy (Annex Vol. 6). Larry Westphal, Carl Dahlman and Bruce Ross-Larson organized background work on technology. Behrouz Guerami-N, Tejaswi Raparla, and Kong-Yam Tan helped with the multisectoral model, the input-output table and data for international comparisons. Ann Orr, Kenneth Hill, Moshe Syrquin, J.V.S. Sarma, Kenneth Cochran, Chang Hsin, Liu Ying and Cai Jinyong undertook research. Linda Mitchell and Terrice Bassler edited the reports; and Helen Kung assisted in their processing. The reports also benefited from comments of a rev~ew panel consisting of Anne 0. Krueger, Luis de Azcarate, Kemal Dervis, Janos Kornai (consultant) and managers of the East Asia and Pacific Regional Office. In addition to the main report and annex volumes, the following background papers have been prepared and are being issued as World Bank Staff Working Papers: 1. "The Asian Experience in Rural Nonagricultural Development and its Relevance for China" 2. "International Experience in Urbanization and its Relevance for China" 3. "Alternative International Economic Strategies and their Relevance for China" 4. ''International Experience in Budgetary Trends during Economic Development and their Relevance for China" 5. "Productivity Growth and Technological Change in Chinese Industry" 6. "Issues in the Technological Development of China's Electronics Sector" 7. "The Environment for Technological Change in Centrally Planned Economies" 8. "Managing Technology Development: Lessons from the Newly Industrializing Countries" 9. "Growth and Structural Change in Large Low-Income Countries" The main report, other annex volumes and background papers are available from World Bank Publications, P.O. Box 37525, Washington, D.c., 20013 or from World Bank distributors listed on the last page of this volume. Prices will be furnished upon request. - LV -  Table of ents Page No. 1. INTRODUCTION • ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 2. EQUATIONS OF THE MODEL •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 Gross Output .•••••••.•••..•••••••••••.•••.•••••.•.•••.•. 5 Employment, Labor Force and Population •••••••••••••• 6 Prices, Net Output, Wages and Profits ••••••••••••••••• 7 Use and Distribution of National Income ••••••••••••••• 9 Sectoral Domestic Demand •••••••••••••••• 11 Foreign Trade .•....................................... 13 Investment Allocation and Capital Accumulation •• 15 Supplementary Energy Equations •••••••••••••••••• 18 3• BASE YEAR DATA • ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 19 4. QUADRUPLE, MODERATE, BALANCE: ASSUMPTIONS •••••••••••••• 20 Incremental Capital-Output Ratios •••••••••••••••••• 20 Energy Use • •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 22 Other Input-Output Coefficients. 22 Consumer Demand Elasticities •••• 26 Foreign Trade and Capital ...•••••••••.•.•.•••.•••••.•• 29 Other Assumptions ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 31 5. __ ~QU_A_D_R_U_P_L_E~,_M_O_D_E_RA T_E~,_B_A_L_A_N_C_E_:__ TS •••••••••••••••••••••••• R_E_S_U_L__ 33 6. URBAN-RURAL DISTRIBUTION •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 52 APPENDICES A. Glossary of Symbols ..•...•••.•..••...•..••.•..................• 55 B. Computer Program of the Model •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 63 c. Additional Results of QUADRUPLE •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 90 D. Additional Results of BALANCE •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 98 List of Figures in the Text 1. Long Term Causation •••••••• 3 ................................. • •••••••• 0 0 •••••••••••••••••••••• 2. Short Term Causation ••••••• 4 v  Page No. List of Tables in the Text 4.1 Incremental Capital-Output Ratios ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 21 4.2 Changes in Energy Use Coefficients •••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 23 4.3 Assumed Composition of Refined Petroleum Products Use, 1981 ••• 24 4.4 Changes in Nonenergy Input-Output Coefficients 1981-2000: QUADRUPLE and MODERATE •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 25 4~5 Input-Output Coefficients in BALANCE •••••••••••••••••••••••••• 27 4.6 Consumer Demand Elasticities •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 28 4.7 Foreign Trade Coefficients •••••••.••••••.••••.••.••••••••.•••. 30 4.8 Other Coefficients •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 32 6.1 Urban-Rural Distribution of Employment, Capital and Output Under Alternative Projections, 1981-2000 ••••••••••••• 53 6.2 Growth in Capital and Output per Worker in Urban and R\lral Areas Under Alternative Projections, 1981.;..2000 •••••••• 54 vi  CURRENCY EgUIVALENTS The Chinese currency is called Renminbi (RMB). It is denominated in Yuan (Y). Each Yuan is 1 Yuan = 10 jiao = 100 fen In early 1984 the official exchange rate of the Yuan to the US dollar was around Y 2 = US$1. The internal settlement rate (ISR) of Y 2.8 = $1, however, was used in most merchandise transactions. The official exchange rate is now about Y 2.8 = $1. On January I, 1985, the Government abolished the ISR. WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Chinese statistics are usually in metric units; in addition, ~and jin are often used: 1 mu = 0.1647 acres = 0.0667 hectares 1 jin = 0.5 kg FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 TRANSLITERATION The Pinyin system is used in this report. TERMINOLOGY (1) With the recent reorganization of rural administration, "communes" have been replaced by "townships," and "production brigades and teams" by "villages." This report retains the former terminology in one respect, however, by referring to 11 comm.une and brigade enterprises." (2) The term "national income" is used in this report to encompass both the Chinese measure (net material product) and the Western measure (gross national product). Where the context makes the distinction between these two measures important, they are more precisely identified. Note: In tables, individual items may not sum exactly to totals because of rounding errors. vii  - 1 - 1. INTRODUCTION 1.01 This annex contains a technical description of the multisectoral economic model used in preparing this report, together with more detailed results of the projections summarized in the main report. It is designed to be read in conjunction with Chapter 2 of the main report. A possible combined reading sequence would be as follows: (a} Main Report, Chapter 2, Section A and Box 2A (brief description of the model); (b) Annex D, Chapter 2 (equations of the model}; (c) Annex D, Chapter 3 (sources of data for the model); (d) Main Report, Chapter 2, Section B (introductory discussion of the spirit and assumptions of the projections}; (e) Annex D, Chapter 4 (more detailed information on the assumptions of the projections}; (£) Main Report, Chapter 2, Sections C-F (discussion of the main results of the projections); and (g) Annex D, Chapter 5 (more detailed results of the projections). 1.02 Appendices to this annex contain a glossary of symbols, the computer program of the model (with explanatory notes), and additional results of the QUADRUPLE and BALANCE projections. 2. EQUATIONS OF THE MODEL 2.01 The model is a type of dynamic input-output model, designed to analyze long-term patterns of growth and structural change. (It is not suitable for short or medium-term analysis: see Main Report, para. 2.07.) The model is large because there are 20 sectors, but technically quite simple, with only about 30 (non-redundant) equations per sector. Like other models, its equations fall into two main categories: those - the great majority - which determine the values of variables within each period (year); and those which update the values of certain variables between periods - population and sectoral capital stocks being the most important such variables. 2.02 Within each period, demand and supply in individual traded-goods sectors are reconciled by endogenous changes in net foreign trade balances. In other sectors, this reconciliation is achieved by temporary changes in capacity utilization (deviations of sectoral capital-output ratios from their assumed long-term values). Between periods, however, the allocation of investment among sectors tends to eliminate unwanted trade imbalances and deviations from normal capacity utilization. Over time, as a result, the  - 2 - composition of production is determined mainly by the composition of demand, even though the aggregate growth rate depends heavily on the pace of invest- ment in capacity expansion. Neither in individual sectors nor in aggregate is growth constrained by availability of labor, partly because skilled labor - which is scarce in China - is for statistical reasons not distinguished from unskilled labor, partly because there is assumed to be an unlimited pool of surplus labor in agriculture. 2.03 Prices play only a limited role in this model. Neither production, nor foreign trade, nor any component of domestic demand, responds directly to changes in (relative) prices. Nor are relative prices affected by demand- supply imbalances. Instead (as explained in the box on wages, profits and prices in Chapter 2 of the Main Report), they are determined by relative pro- duction costs - including labor, materials and capital. However, the relationship between average prices and average wages plays an important macroeconomic role: specifically, the distribution of national income between profits and wages is determined by the need to achieve the government's target aggregate saving rate. It is thus adjustment of household income and consump~ tion, rather than (as in some other models) saving or investment or the overall foreign trade balance, that equates aggregate demand and aggregate supply. 2.04 The following discussion goes through the equations of the model in groups, concentrating on the principles of the equations (see also the simpli- fied flow charts in Figures 1 and 2). To make the model easier to solve in practice, some additional lags (to reduce the degree of within-period simul- taneity), and some damping factors (to prevent oscillations) were inserted. These can be found in the computer program of the model (Appendix B), which also contains additional (redundant) equations, some of which are used to derive MPS (Chinese-style) national accounts from the SNA (Western-style) national accounts generated by the model, while the rest calculate other variables (e.g., shares and ratios) that are useful in studying and presenting the results. 2.05 The 20 sectors of the model, which are referred to 1n the equations by the subscript i, are as follows: 1. Crops (including forestry) 2. Animal husbandry (including fishing) 3. Metallurgy 4. Electricity 5. Coal 6. Petroleum extraction 7. Petroleum refining, which has two different products 71. Fuel oil 72. Distillates 8. Chemicals 9. Machinery (including metal products) 10. Building materials 11. Food processing 12. Textiles and clothing 13. Other manufacturing (including paper and wood products)  - 3 - Rgure 1: lONG-TERM CAUSATION Foreign Saving BorrO'Ning Growth 1-- PRODUCTION Composition of Structure Demand Household - Consumption Composition Foreign Trade PolicY  - 4 - Figure 2: SHORT-TERM CAUSATION Sectoral Sectoral investment Capital Stocks Allocation I-I . . • i Sectoral Trade ~ I L..,_ I •. Sectoral Imbalances . I - Gross Output ~ •. . Demand- Production _..J I I National Prices Income Imbalances ' ' Composition Split Between Profits of Domestic Saving& &Wages Demand Consumption Household Consumption Pattern ..••...... Traded Goods - - - - Nontraded Goods ======= Lagged Effect  - 5 - 14. Construction 15. Transport (including passenger transport and communications) 16. Commerce 17. Miscellaneous services 18. Education and health 19. Public administration and defense 20. Housing 2.06 These are sometimes consolidated into the following five sectors: Agriculture = sector 1 + sector 2 Light industry = sector 11 + sector 12 + sector 13 Heavy industry = sector 3 + sector 5 + sector 6 sector 7 + sector 8 + sector 9 + sector 10 Infrastructure = sector 4 + sector 14 + sector 15 Services = sectors 16 to 20 Gross Output 2.07 Within-period gross output in each sector is determined in one of three ways - by the inherited sectoral capital stock (via a production func- tion), by demand, or by an exogenously given growth rate. Inherited sectoral capital stocks and production functions determine within-period output in sectors 2, 3, and 8-13, i.e., in animal husbandry and in all manufacturing sectors (except oil refining). In the infrastructure and service sectors (sectors 4 and 14-20), within-period output is determined by demand, in accor- dance with the material balance equations: QS. = DD. + X. - M. (1.1) 1 1 1 1 where DDi is domestic demand, Xi exports, and Mi imports.!/ In sectors 1, 5, 6 and 7, i.e., in crops, coal, petroleum extraction, and petroleum refining, output grows at an exogenously given rate. (Growth of petroleum refining is set to be consistent with growth of petroleum extraction: refined petroleum output is divided between fuel oil and distillates in exogenously specified proportions.) 2.08 The sectoral production functions are (with one exception) of the form: 1/ Exports and imports in infrastructure and services are zero, except for transport and commerce, where they are exogenously specified fractions of (i.e., transport and trade margins on) other exports and imports.  - 6 - K. (-1) --:-1_ _ ak. + a. 1 1 = 2-20 ( 1.2) 1 where QSi is gross output, Ki(-1) is the capital stock at the beginning of the period, aki is the incremental capital-output ratio, and a 1 is a constant term. The exception is the crop sector, in which, to take account of the diminishing returns to inputs applied to a fixed quantity of land, the produc- tion function is of the form: ( 1.3) where N is a fixed-proportions aggregate of intermediate inputs and T repre- sents the state of technology. Both N and T increase at exogenously specified rates. As explained later, the role of the production functions in sectors in which within-period output is determined by demand or exogenously is to deter- mine investment requirements. Employment, Labor Force and Population 2.09 In all sectors, production requires not only capital, but also specified amounts of both intermediate inputs and (except in crops) labor. Specifically, employment in each sector except crops is determined by gross output and an exogenous labor productivity coefficient:~/ L. = a .QS. 1 11 1 1 =2 - 20 (2.1) Employment in the crop sector, where labor is assumed to be in surplus, is the difference between the total labor force, L, and employment in all other sectors. L1 =L - L . L. 1 1 =2 - 20 (2.2) 1 The labor force, and the total population, POP, are both exogenous. 2/ Decreases in these labor input coefficients, reflecting technical progress and increased efficiency, are in this model the single most important source of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The rate of TFP growth is also influenced by changes in sectoral capital-output ratios, and in intermediate input coefficients, as well as by inter- sectoral shifts in resource allocation.  - 7 - Prices, Net Output~ Wages, and Profits 2.10 Prices (which in the base year are all set equal to one) are deter- mined by unit costs of production, including capital costs. K.(-1) l P. =~a .. P. +a . W. + PAL (3.1) 1 ~ 1J J L1 1 QS. 1 1 where a·. are input-output coefficients, w. 1 is the sectoral wage rate, PAii 1s the secfdral profit rate on capital (gross of depreciation), and Ki(-1)/QSi 1s the sectoral average capital-output ratio. Sectoral profit rates depend on the overall level of profits in the economy, whose determination is explained below, and on exogenously given relationships among profit rates in different sectors. Formally, all profit rates are linked to the profit rate in one of the sectors, PAI. l = ZETA 1 .• PAI 3 1 = 1' 2' 4-17 (3.2) where ZETA· is the ratio of the profit rate in sector i to the profit rate in sector 3 (fhe choice of sector 3 is arbitrary, and makes no difference). In sectors 18 and 19 (education and health, and public administration and defense), the profit rate is simply the depreciation rate, and in sector 20 (housing), it is the rental rate. 2.11 These price equations are capable of determining only relative prices. The absolute price level is determined by requiring in addition that the ratio of nominal to real national income (PBAR) remains constant and equal to its base year value of one. (Other normalization rules would be possi- ble.} Given this normalization rule, and the wage rates, Wi (whose determina- tion is explained below), equatio~' 3.1 and 3.2 together determine all sectoral prices and profit rates.- 2.12 Net output in each sector is computed by subtracting from gross out- put all intermediate uses. NQ. = QS 1. (Pi - ~ a. . • P . ) (3.3) l J 1J J 3/ These sectoral prices and profit rates evidently also depend on inherited sectoral capital stocks and gross output levels, which between them determine average sectoral capital-output ratios. The relationship between the absolute amount of profit in each sector, PROFi, and the sectoral profit rate also depends on the price of capital goods, PK (equation 7.18). Algebraically, PROF. = PAii. Ki(-1). PK. In the crop sector, L 1 /qs 1 is used instead of an ixogenous labor input coefficient.  - 8 - 2.13 The wage rates in each sector depend on the overall level of wages in the economy (whose determination is explained in para. 2.23), but also on exogenously given relativities ~- among sectoral wage rates, and on the levels of employment in the vario~s sectors. Specifically, the wage rates in other sectors are arbitrarily normalized on the wage rate of the metallurgy sector. i = 1, 2, 4-20 (3.4} 2.14 The wage bill 1n each sector is simply the product of the wage rate and employment: WB· 1 =w.. 1 L· 1 (3.5} And the sum of all sectoral wage bills 1s the economy's total wage bill, WB. WB = Iws. • 1 (3.6) 1 Given WB, which (as explained below) is governed by the level of national income and by saving and consumption targets, and given also sectoral employ- ment levels, equations 3.4, 3.5 and 3.6 together determine all sectoral wage bills and wage rates. 2.15 Profit (including depreciation and taxes) 1n sectors 1-17 1s the difference between net output and the wage bill: PROF. 1 = NQ.1 - WB. 1 1 = 1,2, •• ,17 (3.7) 2.16 For education and health, public administration and defense, and housing, depreciation and rent are likewise calculated as DEPR. 1 = NQ.1 - WB. 1 1 = 18,19 (3.8) RENT = NQ.1 - WB. l 1 = 20 (3.9) 2.17 Nominal gross domestic product, Y, is determined as the sum of sectoral net output, adjusted for losses incurred in foreign trade. (These losses, which arise for reasons explained in para. 2.37, could alternatively have been subtracted from the profits of the commerce sector.) Thus, y = L NQ.1 - XLOSS - MLOSS (3.10)  - 9 - where XLOSS and MLOSS are, respectively, losses on exports and imports, defined as XLOSS = I P.X. - DOLX • EXCHR 1 1 (3.11) and MLOSS = -(IP.X. - DOLM , EXCHR) 1 1 2.18 In the above formulas, DOLX and DOLM are, respectively, total exports and imports denominated in US dollars and EXCHR is the yuan/dollar exchange rate (discussed further below). 2.19 Nominal gross domestic product is by definition also the sum of wage bill, profit (net of foreign trade losses), and rent. y = WB + PROF + I DEPR. + RENT 1 - XLOSS - MLOSS (3.12) i = 18' 19 where PROF= 2 PROFi i =1 - 17 (3.13) Use and Distribution of National Income 2.20 The aggregate saving rate is exogenously given by government policy. It determines domestic saving. so = uY (4.1) 2.21 The difference between gross domestic product and domestic saving 1s total consumption; an exogenously specified share, g, also determined by government policy, is used for public consumption, GN, and the rest constitutes household consumption, CN. GN =g (Y - SD) (4.2) CN =Y - SD - GN (4.3) 2.22 Households save an exogenously given proportion, s, of their income, which consists of wages and rent: CN = (1 - s) YH (4.4)  - 10 - where YH = WB + RENT (4.5) 2.23 The importance of these last two equations is that they show how the government's decisio~ on division of national income between saving and con- sumption in this model determines the distribution of national income between wages and profits. In particular, by rewriting these equations as WB = CN/(1- s)- RENT' it can be seen that the size of the aggregate wage bill is governed by the availability of resources for household consumption (the consumption fund). A corresponding equation can be written for aggregate profits, showing that they are determined by domestic saving (less household saving) plus public consumption requirements. 2.24 Aggregate gross investment is determined by domestic saving, SD, plus net foreign capital inflow, which in turn is equal to foreign borrowing, SF, plus net transfers (such as remittances) from abroad, NTR, and minus interest payments on foreign debt, DS. IN = SD + SF + NTR - DS (4.6) where SF = DOLSF • EXCHR, (4. 7) NTR = DOLNTR • EXCHR, (4.8) and DS = DOLDS • EXCHR (4.9) DOLSF, DOLNTR and DOLDS are, respectively, foreign borrowing, net transfers, and interest expressed in foreign currency (dollars). 2.25 Foreign borrowing, net of amortization, is determined by a tf7get ratio, f, between the stock of external debt and the level of exports.- Therefore, foreign borrowing (in dollars) is determined in each period as DOLSF =f • DOLX - DOLDEBT (-1) (4.10) where DOLX and DOLDEBT are, respectively, total exports and outstanding debt denominated in dollars. 2.26 Interest payments on debt are determined as the product of an exoge- nous interest rate and the debt stock 4/ This ratio is closely related to the debt-service ratio. For example, assuming an average maturity of ten years and a 10% average rate of interest, a debt-service ratio of 20% would be equivalent to f equal to unity.  - 11 - DOLDS = interest • DOLDEBT(-1), (4.11) and outstanding debt is updated each period as DOLDEBT = DOLDEBT(-1) + DOLSF. (4.12) Sectoral Domestic Demand 2.27 Public consumption is divided among sectors by a set of exogenously given share parameters: G. 1 = e.1 • GN, (5.1) 2.28 Similarly, household consumption is divided among sectors according to a set of exogenously given sectoral consumer demand elasticities (cdei). Specifically, it is postulated that in each sector the increase in real per capita household consumption depends on its consumer demand elasticity and the increase in total real per capita household consumption, REALPCC, which is defined as CN REALPCC = POP • CPI • lOO (5.2) CPI 1s the consumer price index, defined as CPI = CN (-1)/(I i c. 1 (-1) I P.) 1 (5.3) 2.29 In order to ensure that sectoral consumption sums to total consump- tion, a two-stage procedure is used. First, sectoral incremental consumption claims, CCLAIMi, are determined. These are then all scaled up or down propor- tionately to make their t~lal nominal value equal to the aggregate increment in household consumption.- 2.30 Total investment, IN, is divided between fixed investment, FI, and circulating capital investment, SK. This division depends on the allocation of investment by sectors of destination, Ii, whose determination is explained below; and also on the ratio, rhoi, of circulating to total capital within each sector of destination. Spec1fically, 5/ For the specific equations used in these two steps, see Appendix B.  - 12 - SK. =rho. [I. -delta . • FK.(-1)] (5.4) 1 1 1 l 1 and FI. = I. - SK. (5.5) 1 1 1 where the rho· are given exogenously, and the deltai are depreciation rates on sectoral fixed capital stocks, FKi. Hence, SK = L SK.1 (5.6) and FI = IN - SK (5. 7) 2.31 These total needs for fixed and circulating investment goods are then provided by the various sectors. Fixed investment goods are supplied in exogenously fixed shares, b·; circulating capital goods are supplied by mater- ial producing sectors in pr~portion to their gross output, with the exception of crops. Specifically, 10 : SK0 + b • FI (5.8) 1 1 1 IO. :phi. • (SK- SK0 ) +b . • FI, 1 1 1 1 I phii = Ibi = 1 (5.9) i = 2,3,5-13 where SK0 1 is the increase in circulating capital in the form of crops, bi are given exogenously, and phii are determined by: phi. 1 = QS./QSMAT 1 , (5.10) where QSMAT is the total output of the material production sectors other than crops, i.e., QSMAT = ~ QSi i = 2,3,5-13 (5.11) 1 2.32 The change in crop stocks, SK0 1 , 1s normally determined as a propor- tion (0.75) of the change in crop output: SK0 1 = 0.75. [QS 1 - QS 1 (-l)] • P1 (5.12) But if crop exports hit a predetermined ceiling, XMAXl' additional crop stocks are accumulated to balance crop demand and supply (th1s is to prevent unrea- sonably high crop exports}. 2.33 Total real domestic demand DDi in each sector is thus the sum of total intermediate demand, government and household consumption, and provision of investment goods.  - 13 - DO. = L. a . . • QS. + (C. + G. + IO. )/P. (5.13) 1 1J 1 1 1 1 1 J Foreign Trade 2.34 As mentioned earlier, foreign trade in particular sectors adjusts in each period to fill the gap between domestic demand and supply (although over time investment adjusts so as to attain certain foreign trade targets - see below). But there is also a requirement that each sector maintain in each period a certain minimum amount of exports and imports. Thus if the demand for domestically produced goods is greater than supply, imports will fill this gap and exports will be fixed at a predetermined ratio (xsharei) of gross out- put. Conversely, if the demand for domestically produced goods is smaller than supply, exports will fill the gap and imports will be fixed at a prede- termined ratio (msharei) of domestic demand. 2.35 In symbols, if (1- mshare.) • DO. > (1- xshare.) • QS., (6.1) 1 1 1 1 then X. = xshare. QS.; (6.2) 1 1 l otherwise X. 1 = QS.l - (1- mshare.) 1 DO .• 1 i = 1-3, 5-6, 72, 8-13 (6.3) 2.36 Imports, M·, are simultaneously determined with exports and are obtained from the foilowing material balance equation once exports are deter- mined by (6.2) or (6.3). QS. = DD. + X. - M. 1 l l l i = 1-3, S-6, 72, 8-13 (6.4) Fuel oil is an exception: both its exports and its imports are exogenously determined (for reasons to be explained below). In transport and commerce, exports and imports are exogenously specified ratios of other exports and imports. In construction and the service sectors, exports and imports are exogenously set at zero. Total exports and imports in domestic currency at constant prices are: X = ~ 1 X. 1 (6. 7) and M= ~ 1 M. 1 (6.8)  - 14 - 2.37 Foreign Trade and Payments in Current Dollars. Exports and imports in domestic currency are converted to dollars as follows: DOLX. 1 = X.1 WPINDX. • CFX. 1 1 (6.9) and DOLM. 1 = M.1 WPINDXI. 1 CFM. 1 (6.10) 1 and CFM· are the where WPINDX· is the world price index in dollars, and CFX· ratios of wo~ld prices to domestic prices in the base year for expo~ts and imports respectively. (They are needed because domestic relative prices are in some cases quite different from relative world prices, so that conversion between dollars and renminbi at a uniform exchange rate is inappropriate. The existence of different ratios in different sectors is the main reason for XLOSS and MLOSS -which in principle could be negative, i.e., profits rather than losses.) 2.38 Total dollar exports and imports are, respectively DOLX =~ DOLX. 1 (6.11) 1 and DOLM = ~DOLM. • 1 (6.12) 1 2.39 Net transfers from abroad are assumed constant 1n real terms; they rise in nominal terms with world inflation: DOLNTR = DOLNTRBS • WPINDX (6.13) where DOLNTRBS 1s base year net transfers 1n dollars. 2.40 The real exchange rate is also assumed to remain constant; in nomi- nal terms, it thus adjusts according to the difference between world inflation and domestic inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator, PBAR): EXCHR = EXCHBS • PBAR/WPINDX (6.14) where EXCHBS 1s the base year yuan/dollar exchange rate.  - 15 - Investment Allocation and Capital Accumulation 2.41 Investment is allocated among sectors (of destination) according to one of three rules. First, investment is allocated to build up the amount of productive capacity required by demand or exogenously specified production growth. This is the rule used for all the nontraded goods sectors (infra- structure and services), and for coal, petroleum extraction, petroleum refining, and crops. In these sectors the production function determines the desired capital stock, and investment allocation adjusts the actual capital stock to the desired level. Second, investment is aimed at achieving prede- termined target sectoral trade deficits (or, to put it another way, sectoral self-sufficiency ratios). This specification is adopted for animal husbandry and food processing, and for several heavy industries - metallurgy, chemicals, and building materials. Third, for the remaining sectors, namely machinery, textiles and clothing, and other manufacturing, investment is allocated according to target shares of manufactured exports. Given the current devia- tions of exports from these target shares, more investment flows into sectors whose exports fall below the target, and vice versa. 2.42 More specifically, sectoral investment allo*ations are determined in the following way. The desired productive capacity K' commensurate with a given output target 1s determined: 1 s s1 * = [QS./(T K. 1 1 . N 2)] i =1 (7 .1) t( K. = ak .• (QS.- a.) 1 :::;: 2 - 20 (7 .2) 1 1 1 1 The required change in productive capacity 1s then estimated by simple extra- polation of past growth. To this estimate of investment requirements is added the need for replacement investment (based on the depreciation rate). Finally, sectoral investment requirements are modified by an error correction term based (depending on the sector) on the current deviation either of actual sectoral capacity from target capacity, or of the actual sectoral trade defi- cit from the target deficit, or of actual exports from target exports. This error correction does not operate instantaneously, but tends to ensure that 1n the long run sufficient investment is allocated to each sector to meet its particular target. 2.43 For crops, energy, infrastructure, and services, the investment allocation equations are:  - 16 - ICLAIM. 1 = o.1 ~K. + 1 K. ( -1) 1 (K.(-1)/K.(-2) -1) 1 1 1 =1 1 (7 .3) B2 B + [QS./(T.N )] 1 -K.(-1) 1 1 I CLAIM. = 0. 1 1 . ~K. 1 + ak .• QS. 1 1 . (QS./QS.(-1) 1 1 -1) i = 4-7, 14-20 + (QS. - a.) 1 1 . ak.1 . (ak/ak1(-1) -1) + [ak. 1 . (QS.1 -a.)- 1 K.(-1)] 1 (7 .4) 2.44 The first term on the right-hand side is replacement investment; the middle terms represent the desired change in capacity (allowing for the possi- bility of changing aki); and the last term is the error correction. (In the case of crops, as a s1mplification, we let the growth in capital stock in the last period determine the desired change in capacity.) 2.45 ~or animal husbandry, food processing, metallurgy, chemicals, and building materials, the target sectoral trade deficit (Mi - Xi) is dtgt. • DD., i = 2' 3' 8 f 10' 11 (7 .5) 1 1 and hence the production target 1s (1- dtgt.) • DD., (7 .6) 1 1 and the desired capacity 1s ... K~= ak . • (1 - dtgt.) DD. - a .• (7.7) 1 1 1 1 1 2.46 The investment required in these sectors is thus: !CLAIM. 1 = o1 .• FK.(-1) 1 + (1- dtgt.) • ak .• DD. (DD./DD.(-1) -1) 1 1 1 1 1 + [(1- dtgt.) • DD.- a.) • ak . • (ak./ak. (-1)] 1 1 1 1 1 1 + ak. [(M. - X.) - dtgt . • DD.]. (7 .8) 1 1 1 1 1 2.47 The first expression on the right-hand side is again replacement investment. The second and third terms determine the investment required to increase production capacity. The last term corrects any deviation between the actual and desired trade balances in the current period. 2.48 For machinery, textiles and clothing, and other manufacturing, investment allocation depends on export targets, set in relation to an aggre- gate of manufactured exports, XMFD:  - 17 - (7 .9) With the export target expressed as a fraction xtgti of XMFD, the key term of the investment allocation equation is: xtgt .• XMFD + (M. - mshare .• DO.) 1 1 1 1 l = 9, 12, 13 {7 .10) 2.49 It also includes the excess of imports above the required minimum. (This 1s necessary to prevent these sectors from becoming large net importers, even though simultaneously achieving their export targets.) From this foreign trade target, an output target is derived (by use of the material balance equation), namely: (1 - mshare.) 1 . DO.+ xtgt 1.• XMFD l ' (7.ll) from which in turn desired capacity 1S derived as: 1/t K.= ak. 1 1 . ({1 - mshare.) 1 . DD.1 + xtgt.1 . XMFD] - a. 1 (7.12) Therefore, the investment allocation equation can be written as INEED. l = o1.• FK.(-1) 1 + ak . • [{1- mshare.). DO . • (DD./DD.(-1) -1) 1 1 1 1 1 + xtgt. • XMFD. (XMFD/XMFD(-1) -1)] 1 + (1- mshare.) • DD. + xtgt . • XMFD- a.) ak. [ak./ak. (-1)] l l 1 l l l 1 + (xtgt .• XMFD- X.+ M.- mshare .• DO.) (7 .13) 1 l l 1 l 2.50 The first term on the right-hand side is replacement investment. The middle terms determine the investment required to increase capacity in accordance with the export target. The last term corrects the current deviation of actual exports from the export target. 2.51 The allocations of investment to the various sectors must sum exactly to the total investment available, IN: this is achieved by making investment in the three export target sectors a residual (i.e., giving all other sectors a prior claim). It is also necessary to damp the allocation of investment to prevent oscillations. This is done in two ways. First, the error correction terms are damped, by making the adjustment in each period only a fraction of the current deviation. Second, the actual allocation of investment among sectors is damped by making their investment shares depend both on their current investment requirements (governed by the above equa- tions) and on their existing capital stock shares: K.(-1) ICLAIM. 1 ishri =K <K(-l) ) + (1 - K} { IN ) l = 1, 2, ••• ,20 {7 .14)  - 18 - 2.52 Given the allocation of investment among sectors, and the division of investment in each sector between fixed and circulating capital (explained earlier}, sectoral fixed (FKi}, circulating (WKi), and hence total (Ki) capital stocks are then updated: FK. l = FI./PK l + (1 - 0. ) FK. ( -1) l l (7.15) WK. =: SK./PK + WK.(-1} (7.16) l l l K. l = FK. 1 + WK. l (7.17) where PK is the price index for capital goods, calculated as PK = (1 - SKSHR) ~b.P. /., l l + SKSHR • PBAR. (7 .18) The bi are the shares of different sectors of or1g1n in fixed investment, and SKSHR is the ratio of circulating capital investment (SK) to total investment (IN). Supplementary Energy Equations 2.53 The specification of certain equations in the energy sectors differs from that in other sectors. In particular, the input-output coefficients gov- erning use of fuel oil and coal are endogenous, rather than exogenous, in most sectors. Total fuel use (including crude oil as well as fuel oil and coal) in each sector is governed by exogenous coefficients (AFUELi), but its composi- tion varies according to the availability of crude oil for fuel (governed by exogenous coefficients), and of fuel oil, which depends on domestic production and exogenously specified exports and imports. Use of coal adjusts to make up any deficit between total fuel requirements on the one hand and availability of crude and fuel oil on the other. (A common ratio of coal to fuel oil is assumed in most sectors.) 2.54 The incremental capital-output ratio and the fuel use coefficient in electricity both depend on the ratio (HYDSHR) of hydro (and nuclear) to total generating capacity. 2.55 It should be mentioned that the energy demand projections presented in Annex C were not derived directly from the multisectoral model, but from a more detailed supplementary model calibrated in physical units (rather than tn value terms). However, the sectoral and aggregate output growth rates from the multisectoral model projections were an important input into the supplementary energy projections, whose results were in turn used to improve the accuracy of the multisectoral model projections. Some minor discrepancies between the two sets of projections remain, but in general there is a high degree of consistency.  - 19 - 3. BASE YEAR DATA 3.01 The projections all start from 1981, the latest year for which a complete set of the necessary data could be compiled. The single most impor- tant ingredient of the base year data is an input-output table, including, in addition to intersectoral flows, the sectoral composition of all final demand vectors (public consumption, household consumption, fixed investment, circu- lating investment, exports and imports), as well as sectoral gross and net output. The table used is presented in Annex E (Appendix Table C.2), which also explains how it was estimated from published Chinese statistics and other sources. It follows SNA (Western-style) accounting principles. Base ye~r input-output coefficients were calculated directly from the intersectoral flows. 3.02 The division of sectoral net output (and national income) in the model between "wages", "profits", and "rent" was based on the data for various types of income contained in the estimated input-output table, although it represents a considerable simplification of reality. "Rent" is the sum of housing depreciation, imputed net rent on owner-occupied housing, and the actual net rent of rented housing (which is negative), where net rent is defined as the return to capital after allowing for depreciation and maintenance expenses. "Wages" are in effect all household income other than imputed rent, including wages proper, income from self-employment (especially in agriculture), and estimated bonuses and benefits paid by enterprises out of profits. They were made to conform approximately with published information on relative earnings per worker in the various sectors. "Profits'' is the residual: in effect the income of enterprises and government, it includes depreciation, interest, and industrial and commercial tax, as well as profits proper. 3.03 Another important ingredient of the base year data is sectoral capital stocks (fixed and circulating); the estimates used are presented and explained in Annex E (Appendix Table E.l). A third important ingredient is sectoral employment data; the estimates used are also presented and explained in Annex E (Appendix D). 3.04 The base year ratios between world prices and domestic prices {CFXi and CFMi, presented in Table 4.7) were mainly estimated by dividing sectoral exports and imports in the input-output table {which had been adjusted to domestic prices) into corresponding official Chinese estimates expressed in dollars. Export losses and import losses in the base year are in principle zero (such losses are contained in the profits of the commerce sector); the variables XLOSS and MLOSS thus measure changes in trade losses from base year levels, caused by alterations in domestic prices, world prices, and the composition of trade. In practice, XLOSS and MLOSS in the base year of the projections are not exactly zero, partly because some of the estimated CFXi and CFMi were adjusted to make them more reasonable, partly because the base year simulated values of exports and imports differ slightly from their actual values.  - 20 - 4. QUADRUPLE, MODERATE, BALANCE: ASSUMPTIONS 4.01 Three main projections - QUADRUPLE, MODERATE, and BALANCE - are introduced in Chapter 2 of the Main Report, which also states and explains their main assumptions in broad outline. These assumptions are presented and explained in more detail below. It should be emphasized (a) that the empir- ical basis for almost all these assumptions could be improved by further research, both on China and on other countries, and (b) that the assumptions are often inevitably somewhat arbitrary, even given a good empirical founda- tion. The projections based on these assumptions should therefore be regarded as quite preliminary in character. Incremental Capital-Output Ratios 4.02 The values assumed in the three projections are in Table 4.1 (ratios of circulating to total capital are in Table 4.8). Considering QUADRUPLE first, the values for crops (the exponents of the production function), animal husbandry, and the energy sectors (including petroleum refining) are all direct, albeit rough, estimates based on World Bank project experience in China and elsewhere. (Further information on jnvestment requirements in agri- culture and energy is in Chapter 4 of the Main Report and in Annexes B and C.) The estimate for coal is high; it should probably be thought of as including some coal-related transport investment. 4.03 In other sectors, the starting point was the ratio in 1981 of the estimated sectoral capital stock to sectoral gross output value. In the manufacturing sectors, in construction, and in miscellaneous services, this ratio is used directly - the assumption being that capital-output ratios will be the s~me in the future as they have been on average in the past. In transport, however, the ratio was increased, because of past underinvestment, to a value that would be more normal by international standards. In commerce, the ratio was reduced, on the assumption that reform of the system of economic management would cause stocks of unsaleable goods to be smaller in the future than in the past. In education and health, and in public administration and defense, the 1981 ratio was gradually doubled over the period 1981-2000; this was done to ensure a reasonable allocation of investment to these sectors, given the slow rate of increase in their gross output (which is hard to measure, but is closely related to their employment levels). In housing, the incremental capital-output ratio is simply the 1981 housing capital stock divided by estimated 1981 gross rent (including the imputed rent of owner- occupied housing). 4.04 In MODERATE, the incremental capital-output ratios in the manufac- turing sectors and in construction were all boosted by 40%. This causes the average capital-output ratios in these sectors to increase - at rates that on average are rather similar to those observed in the same sectors in the Soviet  - 21 - Table 4.1: INCREMENTAL CAPITAL-OUTPUT RATIOS (aki) QUADRUPLE MODERATE BALANCE 1. Crops Ia Ia Ia 2. Animal husbandry 2:00 2.00 2.00 3. Metallurgy 1.32 1.85 1.22 4. Electricity lb lb lb 5. Coal 5:0o 5.00 5:0o 6. Petroleum extraction 10.50 10.50 10.50 7. Petroleum refining 1.30 1.30 1.30 71. Fuel oil 72. Distillates 8. Chemicals 0.82 1.15 0.74 9. Machinery 1.38 1.93 1.18 10. Building materials 1.21 1.69 1.11 11. Food processing 0.30 0.42 0.26 12. Textiles and clothing 0.31 0.43 0.25 13. Other manufacturing 0.74 1.04 0.66 14. Construction 0.32 0.45 0.29 15. Transport 4.00 4.00 4.00 16. Commerce 3.46 3.46 2.09 17. Miscellaneous servtces 0.58 0.58 0.46 18. Education and health lc lc lc 19. Public administration and defense ld ld ld 20. Housing 14:26 14.26 14:26 Ia Coefficient values in crop production function were B1 = 0.30 and B2 = 0.35 in all three projections. lb Determined as [9.92 * HYDSHR + 5.39 * (1-HYDSHR)]. lc Increases steadily from 0.63 in 1981 to 1.26 in 2000. /d Increases steadily from 4.89 1n 1981 to 9.74 in 2000.  - 22 - Union in 1959-72 •.!/ In other sectors, the same ratios as 1n QUADRUPLE were used. 4.05 In BALANCE, some incremental capital-output ratios were set lower than in QUADRUPLE. In the manufacturing sectors, in construction, and in mis- cellaneous services, incremental circulating capital requirements are reduced to 70% of their levels in QUADRUPLE (fixed capital requirements are unchanged). In commerce, circulating capital requirements are reduced to 31% of the level assumed in QUADRUPLE (25% of their 1981 level), but fixed capital requirements are tripled; total capital requirements in commerce decline significantly, because of the high ratio of circulating to fixed capital. In other sectors, the same values as in QUADRUPLE were used. These specific assumptions were not based on detailed international comparisons; but the resulting aggregate incremental capital-output ratio conforms reasonably well with international experience. Energy Use 4.06 The assumed changes in the coefficients governing use of various forms of energy are set out in Table 4.2. (For convenience, Table 4.3 shows the assumed composition of refined petroleum products use in 1981, including a rough breakdown of distillate use in industrial sectors between own-account trucks and other uses; only the total is given in the input-output table in Annex E.) These energy coefficient changes were based on a fairly detailed study of the potential for energy saving in China, in light of international experience, reported in Annex C. The estimates in Annex C are in the form of ranges; the values in Table 4.2 are the mid-points of the respective ranges, and were used in MODERATE and BALANCE, as well as in QUADRUPLE. In a few cases, the energy coefficient changes shown in Table 4.2 do not correspond exactly with those underlying the projections in Annex C, which were revised to take advantage of information that became available at a late stage in preparing the report. Other Input-Output Coefficients 4.07 The changes assumed in other input-output coefficients in QUADRUPLE and MODERATE are set out in Table 4.4. (Blanks indicate that the coefficients concerned were assumed to remain constant.) The assumptions were derived mainly from studying inter-temporal changes in input-output coefficients in various countries covered by the World Bank's "Sources of Growth" rese~ych project, including Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Turkey, and Yugoslavia.- Studies of changing input-output relationships in the US and Soviet economies 1/ S. Urata, "Economic Growth and Structural Change in the Soviet Economy: 1959-72", World Bank Development Research Department, Discussion Paper No. 109, October 1984. 2/ RPO 671-32.  - 23 - Table 4.2: CHANGES IN ENERGY USE COEFFICIENTS (% change per year) Elec- All Distillates Distillates Crude Fuel tricity fuelle (Trucks) (Other) oil/gas oil 1. Crops -1.00 -0.50 -0.15 o.oo 0.00 2. Animal husbandry -1.00 -0.50 -0.15 o.oo o.oo 3. Metallurgy -0.80 -3.10 -0.45 -2.75 -9.00 /b 4. Electricity 0.05 -0.98 -0.45 -4.11 -30.00 -16-:8'5 5. Coal 1.50 1.40 -0.45 3.85 o.oo -5.30 6. Petroleum extraction o.oo -1.00 -0.45 0.35 -1.10 o.oo 7. Petroleum refining -0.56 -0.69 -0.45 -0.64 lc 71. Fuel oil 72. Distillates a. Chemicals -3.30 -5.00 -0.45 -1.05 Ia /d 9. Machinery 0.80 -2.50 -0.45 -1.05 -9:00 7b 10. Building materials 0.10 -1.20 -0.45 0.35 -9.00 Tb 11. Food processing 2.60 -1.80 -0.45 0.35 -9.00 Tb 12. . Textiles and clothing 3.00 -2.70 -0.45 0.35 -9.00 Tb 13. Other manufacturing 1.00 -1.40 -0.45 -0.15 -9.00 Tb 14. Construction o.oo -1.40 -0.15 -9.00 o:Oo 15. Transport 7.00 -5.40 1.15 -9.00 -0.80 16. Commerce o.oo -1.90 0.35 -9.00 /b 17. Miscellaneous services 0.00 -1.90 0.35 -9.00 /b 18. Education and health o.oo -1.90 0.35 -9.00 Tb 19. Public administration and defense o.oo o.oo 0.35 -9.00 /b 20. Housing o.oo o.oo 0.35 -1.80 7b Ia Use as fuel (43% of use in 1981) declines at 7.3% p.a.; use as feedstock (57% of use in 1981) declines at 1.7% p.a. lb Endogenously determined. 7C Endogenously determined, but coal use set equal to zero. 7d Use as fuel declines at 1.7% p.a.; use as feedstock increases at 1.9% p.a. Je Total fuel use coefficients (AFUELi) in each sector in the base year were calculated as weighted sums of the estimated input-output coefficients for use of crude oil (excluding nonfuel uses), fuel oil (again excluding nonfuel uses), and coal. The weights were estimates of the relative calorie/price ratios for each form of fuel (12.7 for crude oil, 26.0 for fuel oil, and 26.7 for coal).  - 24 - Table 4.3: ASSUMED COMPOSITION OF REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS USE, 1981 (Billion yuan} Fuel Distillates Distillates Total oil (Trucks) (Other) 1. Crops 2.74 0.00 /a 2.74 2. Animal husbandry 0.65 0.00 Ta 0.65 3. Metallurgy 0.56 0.21 0:2"2 0.13 4. Electricity 0.72 0.45 0.09 0.18 5. Coal 0.12 0.02 0.08 0.02 6. Petroleum extraction 0.18 o.oo 0.05 0.13 7. Petroleum refining 0.20 0.13 0.07 0.00 71. Fuel oil 72. Distillates a. Chemicals 2.43 0.20/b 0.28 1.95 9. Machinery 0.82 0.09 0.52 0.21 10. Building materials 0.16 0.06 0.10 o.oo 11. Food processing 0.39 0.01 0.33 0.05 12. Textiles and clothing 0.74 0.19 0.50 0.05 13. Other manufacturing 0.44 0.11 0.22 0.11 14. Construction 0.45 0.00 /a 0.45 15. Transport 2.59 0.06 Ta 2.53 16. Commerce o.oo 0.00 Ta o.oo 17. Miscellaneous services o.oo 0.00 /a 0.00 18. Education and health 0.02 0.02 Ta o.oo 19. Public administration and defense o.oo 0.00 /a o.oo 20. Housing 0.00 0.00 Ta o.oo /a Distillates broken into own-account truck and other uses only in industry. /b Of which use for fuel 80%, use for feedstock 20%. Note: These figures do not accurately represent actual expenditures on petroleum products. This is partly because estimated expenditures were adjusted by imposing the convenient but incorrect assumption that all sectors pay the same price for distillates. Moreover, the sectoral breakdowns of fuel oil use, and of use of distillates in own-account trucks, are quite arbitrary.  Table 4.4: CHANGES IN NONENERGY INPUT-OUTPUT COEFFICIENTS 1981-2000: QUADRUPLE AND MODERATE (% p.a.) Sectors: 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1. Crops -2.2 -4.6 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -1.6 -2.8 -4.2 -4.2 -1.6 -4.2 2. Animal husbandry -2.2 -4.2 -4.2 0.2 -2.8 -4.2 -1.6 3. Metallurgy /a -3.0 -2.0 6.0 1.6 -8.0 8. Chemicals /a 22.9 4.5 1,0 1.0 2.0 3.0 6.0 3.7 1.5 2.2/b 9. Machinery Ta 7.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 5.0 2.0 7.6/b 10. Building materials Ta 11. Food processing Ta 20.6 -5.0 3.3 -5.0 2.0/b 12. Textiles Ta 2.f!b 13. Other manufacturing Ta -2.2 3.i7'b "" \.rl 14. Construction Ta I 15. Transport Ta 16. Commerce Ta 17. Misc. services Ta 18. Education and health 19. Pub. admin. & defense 20. Housing ~ Endogenously determined; increased at 2.6% p.a. in QUADRUPLE, 3.5% p.a. in MODERATE. ~ Increasing coefficients needed to boost materials use in education and health, since gross output grows slowly.  - 26 - were also consulted.1/ Where a clear pattern of change was discerned in these other countries, the same pattern was assumed for China, using rough averages of the rates of change observed elsewhere. Where no clear pattern of change was discernible, the coefficient concerned was assumed to remain constant. 4.08 In BALANCE, some of these coefficients were modified, for reasons explained in Chapter 2 of the Main Report. The modifications are summarized in Table 4.5. The coefficients governing use of commerce and miscellaneous services in other sectors were increased, on the basis of comparisons with the input-output tables for the countries mentioned above, as well as the other input-output tables referred to in Annex E. Data for these service sectors in other countries, especially developing ones, are subject to a wide margin of error (partly because the inputs of "commerce" are in fact the estimated trade margins on the inputs purchased by the sectors concerned); the assumed increases in Table 4.5 should thus not be regarded as particularly precise - hence their assumed uniformity across sectors. 4.09 Compensating reductions were made in manufactured input coeffi- cients. This was done quite mechanically: in each sector, all these coeffi- cients were scaled down equiproportionately, by an amount just sufficient to offset the increases in the service sector coefficients in each sector. The empirical basis for this compensating reduction - derived from the data and studies mentioned above - is partly that over time in other countries, the observed increase in service input coefficients appears to have been more or less cancelled out by a decline in material input coefficients, partly that - in cross section - countries with higher service input coefficients do not seem to have higher total intermediate-to-gross-output ratios (if anything, the opposite pattern is observed}. However, because of the approximate nature of the assumed service input coefficient increases, and because of the mecha- nical way in which the manufactured input coefficients were reduced (the agriculture and energy direct coefficients were left untouched for simplicity, although there are of course indirect reductions in agriculture and energy use), no particular significance should be attached to the differing pattern of changes in manufactured input coefficients across sectors in Table 4.5. Consumer Demand Elasticities 4.10 The assumed income elasticities of consumer demand are presented in Table 4.6. In QUADRUPLE and MODERATE, the elasticities for crops, animal husbandry and processed food were based on the scenario in Annex B, Table 2.1 (with 5.5% per capita income growth), with additional information and assumptions concerning prices and processing. (Two variants on QUADRUPLE, discussed in Chapter 3 of the Main Report, assumed somewhat different food 3/ A.P. Carter, Structural Chan e in the American Econom (Harvard University Press , 1970; and D.M. Galick, G.D. Guill, B.L. Kostinsky and V.G. Treml, "The 1972 Input-Output Table and Changing Structure of the Soviet Economy," in Soviet Economy in a Time of Change, a compendium of papers submitted to the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States (U.S. Government Printing Office), 1979, Volume 1, pp. 423-71.  - 27 - Table 4.5: INPUT-OUTPUT COEFFICIENTS IN BALANCE (Value in 2000 as ratio of value in 2000 in QUADRUPLE) /a Manufactured Commerce Misc. services inputs /b inputs !.!:. inputs /d 1. Crops 2. Animal husbandry 0.88 1. 75 /d 3. Metallurgy 0.87 1. 75 Td 4. Electricity /e 1. 75 Td 5. Coal o. 77 1.75 Td 6. Petroleum extraction 0.66 1. 75 Td 7. Petroleum refining le 1. 75 Td 71. Fuel oil 72. Distillates 8. Chemicals 0.85 1. 75 /d 9. Machinery 0.90 1. 75 Td 10. Building materials 0.63 1. 75 Td 11. Food processing 0.81 1. 75 Td 12. Textiles and clothing 0.92 1.75 Td 13. Other manufacturing 0.85 1. 75 Td 14. Construction 0.92 1. 75 Td 15. Transport 0.54 1. 75 Td 16. Commerce 0.83 1. 75 Td 17. Miscellaneous services 0.51 1. 75 Td 18. Education & health 0.94 1. 75 Td 19. Public admin. & defense 20. Housing 0.54 1. 75 /d Ia Coefficients other than those in this table are the same in BALANCE as in QUADRUPLE and MODERATE. /b A03i, A08i, A09 1 , A10i, A11i, A12 1 , A13i. /c Al6i. /d A17i; these were all set higher in BALANCE than in QUADRUPLE by the same absolute amount, namely 0.03. /e These coefficients become slightly negative (they are very small 1n· QUADRUPLE).  Table 4.6: CONSUMER DEMAND ELASTICITIES (cdei) OUADRUPLE QUADRUPLE (less QUADRUPLE (less and MODERATE BALANCE meat variant) food variant) 1981-90 1991-2000 1981-90 1991-2000 1981-90 1991-2000 1981-90 1991-2000 1. Crops 0.38 0.30 0.35 0.25 0.39 0.32 0.27 0.22 2. Animal husbandry 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.15 1.11 1.08 1.10 1.05 3. Metallurgy 4. Electricity 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 2.19 N 5. Coal 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 00 6. Petroleum extraction 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 7. Petroleum refining 71. Fuel oil 72. Distillates 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 8. Chemicals 1.30 1.40 1.25 1.25 1.33 1.42 1.50 1.55 9. Machinery 1.40 1.50 1.30 1.30 1.43 1.52 1.60 1.60 10. Building materials ll. Food processing 1.28 1.28 1.25 1.20 1.28 1.28 1.15 1.10 12. Textiles and clothing 1.05 1.10 1.00 1.00 1.08 1.12 1.20 1.30 13. Other manufacturing 1.44 1.55 1.25 1.25 1.47 1.57 1.55 1.60 14. Construction 15. Transport 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34 16. Commerce 1.06 1.10 1.20 1.60 1.09 1.12 1.30 1.40 17. Miscellaneous services 1.30 1.35 2.00 2.10 1.33 1.37 1.50 1.55 18. Education and health 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.15 1.20 19. Public administration and defense 20. Housing 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30  - 29 - demand elasticities - in one case less meat and more crops, in the other less food altogether. These elasticities are also shown in Table 4.6.) In all the projections, food demand elasticities are assumed to be higher in the 1980s than in the 1990s (vice versa for other elasticities); this is because it was assumed that, because of the surge in agricultural production caused by the introduction of the production responsibility system, crop production would grow faster in the 1980s than in the 1990s, making it rational to concentrate food consumption increases in the 1980s. 4.11 The consumer demand elasticities for the various forms of energy, and for transport, were chosen to be approximately consistent with the projec- tions and assumptions in Annexes C and F. The same elasticities were used in all projections. 4.12 In other sectors, the consumer demand elasticities in QUADRUPLE were based loosely on elasticities in other developin~ countries, which are broadly consistent with estimated elasticities in China.- 1 The correspondence is loose partly because the sectoral categories are not exactly the same, partly because the elasticities all had to be adjusted somewhat to ensure that their total, weighted by base year consumer expenditure shares, was unity. In BALANCE, the elasticities for commerce (which includes the trade margin on consumer goods) and miscellaneous services were increased; corresponding reductions were made in the elasticities for food and manufactured goods. The housing elasticity was not changed. In all projections, the propensity to save out of household income was assumed to be 10%. Foreign Trade and Capital 4.13 Table 4.7 summarizes most of the assumptions regarding foreign trade, which were the same in all three projections, except where noted. The minimum export and import shares in each sector are based partly on the actual shares in the base year, partly on rough assumptions about China's future foreign trade policies. The same applies to the target sectoral trade deficits and export share targets. In certain sectors - animal husbandry, building materials, processed food - China is assumed to aim at exactly balanced trade. In metallurgy and chemicals, however, the assumed target is a trade deficit, partly to reduce domestic energy consumption. The export share targets reflect the assumed slow growth of textile exports due to world market constraints, and the consequent need to increase the shares of other manufactured exports, especially machinery. 4/ The two main sources for other countries were: I.B. Kravis, A. Heston and R. Summers, World Product and Income (Johns Hopkins University Press), 1982, especially p. 358; and C. Lluch, A. Powell and R. Williams, Patterns in Household Demand and Saving (Oxford University Press), 1977. Estimates for China are reported in J. van der Gaag, "Empirical Studies of Household Consumption in China, 11 World Bank Staff Working Paper, No. 701.  - 30 - Table 4.7: FOREIGN TRADE COEFFICIENTS /a xsharei msharei dtgti xtgti CFXi CFMi WPINDXi{g_ 1. Crops /b /c 0.80 0.63 5.5 2. Animal husbandry 0:020 o:Oo5 o.oo 0.80 0.80 6.3 3. Metallurgy 0.020/f 0.065/f 0.10/d 0.63 0.64 5.7 4. Electricity 0.000 0.000 5. ~oal 0.010 0.005 1.09 1.09 4.9 6. Petroleum extraction o.ooo o.ooo 2.13 2.13 1.3 1. Petroleum refining 11. Fuel oil o.ooo o.ooo 3.50 3.50 1.3 12. Distillates 0.010 0.010 0.98 0.98 1.3 8. Chemicals 0.030/f 0.070/f 0.05/d .0.53 0.58 7.1 9. Machinery 0.0387f o.o8o7f 0.50/e 0.52 0.64 5.6 10. Building materials 0.005 0.005 o.oo 0.63 1.00 5.6 11. Food processing 0.040 0.020 0.00 0.05/e 0.57 0.63 5.6 12. Textiles and clothing 0.050 0.020 o.2oTe 0.49 0.64 5.6 13. Other manufacturing 0.070/f 0.020/f 0.25Te 0.58 0.63 5.6 14. Construction o.ooo o.ooo 15. Transport 0.076 0.034 0.39/h 0.14/h 5.6 16. Commerce 0.106 0.042 o.oolh o.oolh 5.6 17. Miscellaneous services o.ooo o.ooo 18. Education & health 0.000 0.000 19. Public admin. & defense 0.000 0.000 20. Housing o.ooo 0.000 /a Values apply to years after 1981; in 1981, actual values were used. /b Increases from 0.0125 in 1981 to 0.0171 in 2000. /c Increases from 0.015 in 1981 to 0.0200 in 2000. /d Moves to this value over five years. le Moves to this value over nine years. If These coefficients increase gradually in BALANCE: in 2000, xshare3 = 0.05, mshare3 = 0.095, xshare8 = 0.06, mshare8 = 0.10, xshare9 = 0.078, mshare9 = 0.12, xsharel3 = 0.11, m~harel3 = 0.06. £& Average annual percentage increase 1981-2000. /h Dollar trade accounts are f.o.b./c.i.f.; hence transport and trade margins disappear into other categories, although other transport revenues and outlays remain.  - 31 - 4.14 Both exports and imports of fuel oil were constrained to be zero (see paras. 2.36, 2.53). The projected trade balance in coal thus reflects the (positive or negative) gap between fuel demand and fuel production, given any particular assumption about the rate of growth of coal production (para. 2.07). An alternative approach would have been to fix coal exports and imports, and to let coal production adjust endogenously to the level required by demand. 4.15 As regards foreign borrowing, it is assumed in all three projections that the target ratio of foreign debt to exports (small f) rises gradually, reaching 0.75 by 1993 and remaining constant thereafter. However, because actual borrowing moves only gradually toward this target (because the adjust- ment is lagged, and damped to prevent oscillations), the target is not attained by 2000 in any of these projections. The interest rate on foreign debt was assumed to be 8%. Other Assumptions 4.16 Table 4.8 summarizes some of the other assumptions underlying these projections. The depreciation rates are in line with those currently used in China, though rather low by international standards. The sectoral relative "wage" and "profit" J;atios are simply derived from the base year data; they were held constant zt so that projected relative price movements would reflect long-term trends rather than near-term price adjustments (although the latter could easily be incorporated into the projections). The shares of circulating capital in sectoral total (fixed plus circulating) capital stocks were like- wise derived directly from the base year data. The rates of increase in sectoral labor productivity were based loosely on a combination of past Chinese experience and trends in other rapidly growing countries. The projected increase in the total labor force between 1981 and 2000 was based on a breakdown of the population by age and sex {both currently and projected into the future), together with assumptions about educational enrollment and other factors affecting participation rates. Sectoral shares in fixed investment by sector of origin and in public consumption (not shown in the table) were assumed to remain the same as in the 1981 input-output table in Annex E. 5/ Except that the initially low relative wage in education and health was assumed to rise gradually to the same level as in public administration and defense.  Table 4.8: OTHER COEFFICIENTS De pre- Circulating ciation Relative Relative caEital share (%) Labor coefficient rate wage profit OUADRUPLE (annual % decline) /a (%) ratio /b ratio /b and MODERATE BALANCE QUADRUPLE MODERATE BALANCE 1. Crops 1 0.42 0.29 17.6 17.6 2. Animal husbandry 3 0.42 0.22 37.0 37.0 3 3 3 3. Metallurgy 4 26.8 20.4 5 4 5 4. Electricity 4 0.83 1.28 3.8 3.8 5 4 5 5. Coal 4 1.05 0.40 13.1 13.1 3 2 3 6. Petroleum extraction 4 1.07 2.99 19.2 19.2 5 4 5 7. Petroleum refining 4 1.10 4.26 23.4 23.4 5 4 5 71. Fuel oil 72. Distillates w 8. Chemicals 4 0.83 1.41 32.1 24.9 5 4 5 N 9. Machinery 4 0.80 0.70 48.1 39.4 5 4 5 10. Building materials 4 0.65 0.70 27.5 21.0 5 4 5 11. Food processing 4 0.76 3.31 47.4 38.7 4 3 4 12. Textiles and clothing 4 0.77 3.24 59.5 50.7 4 3 4 13. Other manufacturing 4 0.79 0.86 35.1 27.5 4 3 4 14. Construction 4 0.90 1.48 33.3 25.9 3 2 3 15. Transport 4 0.99 0.41 5.0 5.0 3 2 3 16. Commerce 3 0.77 0.35 89.2 46.2 3 2 1 17. Miscellaneous services 3 0.84 4.82 71.4 63.6 2 1 1 18. Education & health 3 /c /d o.o o.o 0 0 0 19. Public admin. & defense 3 0.74 7d o.o o.o 0 0 0 20. Housing 2 0.73 Te o.o o.o 0 0 0 /a Or, annual percentage increase in labor productivity. 7b Relative to sector 3. Tc Rises from 0.58 in 1981 to 0.74 in 2000. Td Depreciation rate used. Te Depreciation-plus-net-rental rate of 5.5% used.  - 33 - 5. QUADRUPLE, MODERATE, BALANCE: RESULTS 5.01 The main results of these three projections are presented and discussed in Chapter 2 of the Main Report. The following tables contain more detailed results, including 20-sector breakdowns of some of the main varia- bles. Additional details of the results of QUADRUPLE and BALANCE are to be found in Appendices C and D of this annex, which contain, among other things, the MPS (Chinese-style) national accounts variables.  - 34 - QUADRUPLE TABLE1:KEY GROWTH RATES (% P.A. AT 1981 PRICES) ......••.....•........ •••••••••• •••••••••• GOP GOP PER .......... NMP •••••••••• • ••••••••• GVIAO EXPORTS .......... IMPORTS •••••••••••••••••••••• •••••••••• • ••••••••• 1981-1990 6.83 CAPITA 5.77 .•.....•.. .......... •••••••••• ..••...... 6.56 7.43 8.83 8.36 1990-2000 6.31 5.26 6.04 6.98 9.16 7.36 1981-2000 6.55 5.5 6.29 •••••••••••••••••••••• • ••••••••• •••••••••• • ••••••••• •••••••••• 7.19 ..•....... ...•••...• 9. 7.84 QUADRUPLE TABLE2:GDP, AND DEMAND COMPOSITION ...•.....•...........• •••••••••• GOP •......... ••....•... .•........ GOP INVEST- HOUSEHOLD • ••••••••• •••••••••• GOVT EXPORTS/ .......... , FOREIGN (BILLIONS PERCAPITA MENT/GDP CONSUMP- CONSUMP- GOP (%) TRADE OF 1981 (1981 us (%) TION/GDP TION/GDP DEFICIT/ .........•..........•• ...•••...• .....•.... .......... ···=······ .......... YUAN) DOLLARS) (%) (%) GOP (%) •••1!1•••••• •••••••••• 1981 457.68 300.74 28.48 55.93 15.3 8.36 -0.29 1990 829.13 498. 15 29.82 55.75 15.25 8.95 0.82 2000 ••••=acaaaaa•••••••••• 1528.57 •••••••••• .......•.. ........•. •••••••••• ...•...... .......... .......... 831.41 29.42 55.75 15.25 11.03 0.42 QUADRUPLE TABLE3:SECTORAL SHARES OF GOP (%) •••••••••••••••••••••• •••••••••• AGRICUL . •....••... •...•••.. .•........ .......... LIGHT HEAVY INFRA· SERVICES -TURE INDUSTRY .INDUSTRY STRUCTURE .........•.•.......... • ••••••••• .•........ • ••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• 1981 34.66 15.01 24.03 10.8 15.51 1990 29.35 15.55 26.49 12.49 16.13 2000 25.54 15.34 27.65 14.29 17.18 •••••••••••••••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• • ••••••••• •••••••••• QUADRUPLE TABLE4:GROSS OUTPUT GROWTH (% P.A. AT 1981 PRICES) 1======================1=============1=============1=============1=============1=============1 I I AGRICUL- I LIGHT I HEAVY I INFRA- I SERVICES I I lURE I INDUSTRY INDUSTRY STRUCTURE I I 1======================1=============1=============1=============1=============1=============1 1 1981-1990 1 4.52 I 8.6 I 8.4 I 7.68 I 6.11 1 1 199o-2ooo I 1981-2000 I 1 4.56 4.54 I 1.31I 7.92 I 7.83 8.1 I I 6.98 7.31 I I5. 75 5.92 I I====================== =============1=============1=============1=============1=============1 I I  - 35 - QUADRUPLE fAII&&:$ECTORAL EMPLOYMENT ~-·S ,., •-----••••••••••••••••1••••••••••1•••••••••~~·•=•••••••1•••••••••• . I AQaiOUL- I TURI J LIGHT INDUSTRY . I. HEAVY INDUSTRY I STRUCTUI! IN,AA- •••s••••••l••••••••• SERVICES I EMPLOYMT ••••••••••••••••••••a•,••••••--•. • aacaaaaaaa ••~·~•••••I•••••••••• ••••••=••• •••••••••• .......... t I (MILLION) -··-··-, ......-..TN (.Zt..LION) 1111 1110 2000 I 61.15 I 63.14 I 51.17 I e.o3 I 7.54 8.56 1.01 I 10.43 I 11.25 I 4.67 1.16 1.01 I 10.21 I 12.24 I 14.13 I 452.16 521.5 131.01 1······················1·········•1····=···==1======···=1·····==···1·····=····1·········· 188.14 I tOI~.. 1118. 18 •••••••••• I QUADRUPLE TABLE6:SECTORAL CAPITAL STOCK SHARES (%} 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I I AGRICUL.;. I LIGHT I HEAVY I INFRA- I SERVICES+! I I TURE I INDUSTRY I INDUSTRY I STRUCTURE! HOUSING I 1=========·============1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I 1981 I 9.61 I 7.9 I 29.53 I 14.09 1 38.88 I I 1990 I 9.16 I 7.76 I 31.79 I 16.18 I 35.11 1 I 2000 I 8.82 I 7.67 I 33.39 I 18.08 I 32.03 1 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 QUADRUPLE TABLE7:HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION SHARES (%} 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I I FOOD I OIL+COAL I MANU- I INFRA- I SERVICES I I . I I I FACTURES I STRUCTURE! I 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I. 1981 I 54.76 I 1.19 I 23.53 I 2.18 I 18.34 I I 199o I 51.18 I o.9 I 25.83 I 2.59 I 19.5 I I 2ooo I 47.58 I o.66 I 28.5 I 2.97 I 20.28 I 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 AT 1981 PRICES.FOOD INCL. PROCESSED FOOD,SERVICES INCL. MARGINS. QUADRUPLE TABLE8:BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (BILLION U.S. DOLLARS} 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I I EXPORTS I IMPORTS I NET I NET I NET I FOREIGN I I I I I I I I I FOB I CIF I INTEREST I TRANSFERS! BORROWING! I =-CURRENT! DEBT STOCK I 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1=~:;!~;;==1==========1 1 I 22.5 I 21.11 I 0.12 I o.57 I -1.23 I I I 1981 1990 2000 I I 68.53 279.04 I I 74.83 289.63 l I 1.45 11.0e I o.9 0.9 1.61 I I 6.86 20.14 I I 25. 158.34 I I 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 NOTE: INCLUDES INTERNATIONAL INFLATION. DEBT NET OF RE~SERVES.  - 36 - QUADRUPLE TABLE9:SECTORAL EXPORT SHARES (%) 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I I AGRICUL- I LIGHT I OIL+COAL I OTHER I INFRASTR+I I I TURE I INDUSTRY I I HEAVY INDI SERVICES I 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I 1981 I 1o. 73 I 39.1 I 22.85 I 22.45 1 4. 21 1 I 1990 I 13.64 I 42.11 I 1.48 I 31.45 1 4.12 1 I 2ooo . I 7.62 I 43.63 I o.92 I 42.84 1 4.99 1 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 NOTE: AT WORLD PRICES. QUADRUPLE TABLE10:SECTORAL IMPORT SHARES (%) 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I I AGRICUL- I OIL+COAL I MACHINERY1 OTHER I INFRASTR+I I I TURE I I I MANUFACT. I SERVICES I 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I 1981 I 15.88 I o.s4 I 29.17 I 53.67 I o.74 I 1 1990 I 14.8 I 1. 36 I 28.39 I 48.76 I o. 1 I 1 2ooo I 8.37 I 12.39 I 28.74 I 49.85 I o.66 I 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 NOTE: AT WORLD PRICES. . QUADRUPLE TABLE11:GROSS OUTPUT (BILLION 1981 YUAN) ===================================== ======================I=========== 1981 1990 I 2ooo ===================================== 1.CROPS =========== ===========I=========== 175.6 245.64 I 342.17 2.ANIMAL-HUSB 41.6 11.8 I 163.07 3.METALLURGY 45.69 84.89 I 165.27 4.ELECTRICITY 19.42 36.84 I 74.69 5.COAL 16.62 24.41 I 37.43 6.0IL EXTRACT 12.9 17.81 I 25.48 7.0IL REFING 1s.o2 25.4 I 4s.ss 8.CHEMICAL 60.53 131.3 300.09 9.MACHINERY 113.05 261.54 594.54 10.BLDG.MATS. 23.21 47.58 92.27 11 . FOOD PROC. 70.19 155.23 342. 12. TEXTILE 109.27 218.21 404.75 13.0THER MFG. 49.9 108.38 229.34 14.CONSTRUCT. 75.05 146.77 281.71 15.TRANSPORT. 31.11 60.84 123.52 16.COMMERCE 52.09 98. 69 191 . 94 17.0TH.SERV. 11.96 23.81 47.36 18.ED.+HEALTH 39.41 55.22 72.03 19.PUBL.ADMN. 9 . 61 1 1 . 44 14 . 28 20.HOUSING 11.21 I 22.84 45.07 I ===================================== ===========I=========== ===========I  - 37 - QUADRUPLE TABLE12:SHARES OF GOP (%) I===================================== =========== ===========I=========== I 1981 1990 I 2ooo !===================================== =========== ===========I=========== I l.CROPS 30.6 24.66 I 19.81 I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB 4.06 4.69 I 5.73 I 3.METALLURGV 3.53 3.09 I 2.81 I 4.ELECTRICITV 2.56 3.7 I 4.78 I 5.COAL 1.83 1.64 I 1.49 I 6.0IL EXTRACT 1.89 3.47 I 4.08 I 7.0IL REFING 1.3 1.67 I 1.91 I 8.CHEMICAL 4.35 4.5 I 4.79 I 9.MACHINERV 8.91 9.88 I 10.54 I 10.BLDG.MATS. 2.23 2.23 I 2.05 I 11.FOOD PROC. 4.06 4.3 I 4.51 I 12.TEXTILE 7. 6.79 I 6.07 I 13 .OTHER MFG. 3.95 4.46 I 4. 76 I 14.CONSTRUCT. 4.15 4.41 I 4.63 I 15.TRANSPORT. 4.09 4.38 I 4.88 I 16.COMMERCE 6.37 6.26 I 6.25 I 17.0TH.SERV. 2.22 2.33 I 2.48 I 18.ED.+HEALTH 2. 77 3.19 I 3.8 I 19. PUBL. ADMN. 2. 1I I 2. 06 I 2. 04 I 20.HOUSING 2.05I 2.3 I I 2.61 I===================================== ===========1===========1===========1 QUADRUPLE TABLE13:EMPLOVMENT SHARES (%) I===================================== ===========1===========1===========1 I 1981 I 1990 I 2ooo I I===================================== ===========1===========1===========1 I 1.CROPS 61.96 I 54.25 I 46.4 I I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB 7.98 I 9.69 I 12.57 I 3.METALLURGV 0.66 I 0.66 I 0.65 I 4.ELECTRICITV 0.26 I 0.26 I 0.27 I 5.COAL 1.03 I 0.98 I 0.93 I 6.0IL EXTRACT 0.09 0.06 I 0.05 I 7.0IL REFING 0.04 0.04 I 0.03 I B.CHEMICAL 1.2 1.4 I 1.61 I 9.MACHINERV 4.26 5.3 I 6.05 I 10.BLDG.MATS. 1.8 1.98 I 1.93 I 11.FOOD PROC. 0.98 1.29 I 1.58 I 12.TEXTILE 2.29 2.7 I 2.8 I 13.0THER MFG. 2.76 3.55 I 4.18 I 14.CONSTRUCT. 2.46 3.12 I 3.71 I 15. TRANSPORT. 1 . 95 2. 48 I 3. 11 I 16.COMMERCE 3. 22 3.96 I 4. 77 I 17. OTH. SERV. 0. 71 1. I 1. 37 I 18.ED.+HEALTH I 3.91 4.68I I 5.12 I 19. PUBL. ADMN. I 2. 3 I I 2. 34 I 2. 45 I 20.HOUSING I 0.15 I 0.26 I I 0.43 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1  - 38 - QUADRUPLE TABLE14:CAPITAL STOCK SHARES (%) 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I I 1sa1 I 1sso I 2ooo I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I l.CROPS I 7.21 I 4.98 I 3.54 I I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I 2.39 I 4.18 I 5.28 I I 3.METALLURGY I 5.08 I 4.49 I 4.21 I I 4.ELECTRICITY I 3.55 I 5.64 I 7.36 I I 5.COAL I 2.8 I 2.84 I 2.63 I I 6.0IL EXTRACT I 1.25 I 2.46 I 2.77 I I 7.0IL REFING I 0.57 I 0.77 I 0.88 I I 8.CHEMICAL I 4.19 I 4.38 I 4.84 I I 9.MACHINERY I 13.3 I 14.56 I 15.92 I I 10.BLDG.MATS. I 2.35 I 2.28 I 2.13 I I 11.FOOD PROC. I 1.77 I 1.89 I 2. I I 12.TEXTILE I 2.91 I 2.64 I 2.39 I I 13. OTHER MFG. I 3. 21 I 3. 23 I 3. 29 I I 14.CONSTRUCT. I 2.02 I 1.89 I 1.76 I I 15.TRANSPORT. I 8.52 I 8.65 I 8.96 I I 1 6. COMMERCE I 18. 64 I 1 6. 18 I 14. 33 I I 1 7. OTH. SERV. I 0. 59 I 0. 58 I 0. 56 I I 18.ED.+HEALTH I 2.14 I 1.95 I 1.77 I I 19.PUBL.ADMN. I 4.02 I 3.15 I 2.71 I I 20. HOUSING I 13. 49 I 13. 24 I 1 2. 66 I I 21.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) I 1280.35 I 2689.15 I 5539.09 I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 QUADRUPLE TABLE15:EXPORT SHARES (%) 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I I 1981 I 199o I 2ooo I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I l.CROPS I 7.79 I 10.67 I 4.65 I I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I 2.94 I 2.97 I 2.97 I I 3.METALLURGY I 4.9 I 2.31 I 2.12 I I 4.ELECTRICITY I 0. I 0. I 0. I I 5.COAL I 1.6 I 0.48 I 0.37 I I 6.0IL EXTRACT I 14.96 I 6.54 I -0. I I 7.0IL REFING I 6.28 I 0.47 I 0.56 I I 8.CHEMICAL I 6.97 I 5.82 I 6.31 I I 9.MACHINERY I 10.03 I 22.34 I 33.29 I I 10.BLDG.MATS. I 0.54 I 0.98 I 1.12 I I 1 1 • FOOD PROC. I 6. 71 J 8. 1 2 I 1. 8 7 I I 12.TEXTILE I 23.94 I 20.49 I 16.66 I I 13.0THER MFG. I 9.05 J 14.1 I 19.1 I I 14.CONSTRUCT. I o. I 0. I 0. I I 15.TRANSPORT. I 4.27 I 4.72 I 4.99 I I 16.COMMERCE I o. I 0. I 0. I I 17 .OTH.SERV. I 0. I 0. I 0. I I 18.ED.+HEALTH I o. I o. I 0. I I 19.PUBL.ADMN. I o. I o. I o. I I 20.HOUSING I 0. I 0. I 0. I I 21.TOTAL (BILL us DOLLARS) I 22.5 I 68.53 I 279.04 I I 22.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) I 38.44 I 82.32 I 197.82 I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 NOTE:AT WORLD PRICES(IN U.S. DOLLARS)  39 - QUADRUPLE TABLE16:IMPORT SHARES (%) 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I I 1981 I 1990 I 2000 I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I l.CROPS I 2.ANIMAL-Huse I 1 15.88 -o. I 1 5.31 9.49 I 1 4.61 3.75 I I 3.METALLURGY I 9.38 I 12.62 I 12.39 I I 4.ELECTRICITY I 0. I o. I 0. I I 5.COAL I 0.45 I 6.65 I 7.04 I I 6.0IL EXTRACT 1 o. 1 -o. 1 1.58 1 I 7.0IL REFING I 0.09 I 0.71 I 3.77 I I 8.CHEMICAL I 12.14 I 18.64 I 22.56 I I 9.MACHINERY I 29.17 I 28.39 I 28.74 I I lO.BLDG.MATs. 1 -o. 1 o.5 1 0.44 1 I 11 . FOOD PROC. I 3. 51 I 8. 88 I 7. 29 I I 12.TEXTILE I 19.05 I 5.49 I 4.71 I I 13.0THER MFG. I 9.58 I 2.64 I 2.46 I I 14.CONSTRUCT. I 0. I 0. I 0. I I 15.TRANSPORT. I 0.74 I 0.7 I 0.66 I I 16.COMMERCE I 0. I 0. I 0. I I 1 7. OTH. SERV. I 0. I 0. I 0. I I 18.ED.+HEALTH I 0. I 0. I 0. I I 19.PUBL.ADMN. I o. I 0. I 0. I I 20.HOUSING I o. I 0. I 0. I I 21. TOTAL (BILL us DOLLARS) I 21.71 I 74.83 I 289.63 I I 22.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) I 36.77 I 75.76 I 154.17 I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 NOTE:AT WORLD PRICES(IN U.S. DOLLARS) QUADRUPLE TABLE17:PRICE MOVEMENTS 1=====================================1=========== 1 I 1981 ===========1===========1 1990 I 2000 I !=====================================!=========== ===========1===========1 I l.CROPS I 1. 1.08 1.17 I I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I 1. 1.06 1.16 I I 3.METALLURGY I 1. 0.94 0.88 I I 4.ELECTRICITY I 1. 1.28 1.44 I I I I I I 5. COAL 6.0IL EXTRACT 7.0IL REFING I 1. 1. 1. 1. 1 2.01 1.66 1. 21 2.91 2.14 I I I 8.CHEMICAL I 1. 0.95 0.89 I I 9.MACHINERY I 1. 0.92 0.85 I I 10.BLDG.MATS. I 1. 0.94 0.88 I I 11 • FOOD PROC. I 1. 1• 1 . 02 I I 12.TEXTILE I 1. 0.94 0.91 I I 13.0THER MFG. I 1. 0.96 0.92 I I I I I I 14.CONSTRUCT. 15.TRANSPORT. 16.COMMERCE I 1. 1. 1. 0.96 1.05 0.96 0.93 1.12 0.92 I I I 17.0TH.SERV. I 1. 0.97 0.97 I I 18.ED.+HEALTH I 1. I 1.3 1.87 I I 19.PUBL.ADMN. I 1. I 1.52 2.24 I I I 20.HOUSING 21.GDP DEFLATOR I 1. 1. I I 1. 1. 1.06 1. I I 1=====================================1===========1=========== ===========I  - 40 - MODERATE TABLE1:KEY GROWTH RATES (% P.A. AT 1981 PRICES) ...•......•..•....••.. •........• •......... .......... .......... .....•••.• ......... GOP GOP PER NMP GVIAO EXPORTS . IMPORTS CAPITA ......•.........•..... .......... •......... •••••••••z .......... .......... .......... 1981-1990 5.6 4.55 5.33 6.23 7.52 7.55 1990-2000 5. 14 4.1 4.89 5.74 6.68 5.61 1981-2000 ...........•.......... 5.36 • • • • • • • • • 11 .•.....••• ···-=······ .......... •.•...•..• .......... 4.31 5.1 5.97 7.08 6.52 MODERATE TABLE2:GOP, AND DEMAND COMPOSITION .............•.••..... .......... .•.....••• •••a•••••• •••••••c•• .......... .......... .......... GOP GOP INVEST- HOUSEHOLD GOVT EXPORTS/ FOREIGN (BILLIONS PERCAPITA MENT/GOP CON SUMP- CON SUMP- GOP (%). TRADE OF 1981 (1981 us (%) TION/GOP TION/GOP DEFICIT/ .........•............ .......... .......... 1981 YUAN) 457.68 DOLLARS) 300.74 aaaaaaaaaa 28.48 (%) .......... 55.93 .......... (%) .......... ..•.....•• 15.3 8.36 GOP (%) -0.29 1990 747.35 449.02 29.9 55.75 15.25 9.17 0.9 ................•..... .......... ....•..••• .......... ........•• .......... .......... .......... 2000 1233.72 671 .04 29.32 55.75 15.25 10.6 0.32 MODERATE TABLE3:SECTORAL SHARES OF GOP (%) ~--··················· .......... .......... ........... ....•.•.•• .......... AGRICUL LIGHT HEAVY INFRA- SERVICES -TURE INDUSTRY INDUSTRY STRUCTURE •..........•...••••.•. .......... .......... •••....... .......... ....•..... 1981 34.66 15.01 24.03 10.8 15.51 1990 29.66 15.86 27.06 11.91 15.52 ...............•••..•. ··········I·········· .......... .......... .......... 2000 26.61 15.38 28.6 13.27 16. 14 MODERATE TA8LE4:GROSS OUTPUT GROWTH (% P.A. AT 1981 PRICES) 1======================1=============1=============1=============1=============1=============1 I AGRICUL- I LIGHT I HEAVY I INFRA- I SERVICES I I I TURE I INDUSTRY I INDUSTRY I STRUCTURE I I 1======================1=============1=============1=============1=============1=============1 I 1981-1990 I 3.6 I 1.11 I 1.21 I 6.47 I 5.03 I I 1990-2ooo I 3.71 I 5.87 I 6.62 I 5.82 I 4.7 I I 1981-2ooo I 3.65 I 6.48 I 6.9 I 6.13 I 4.86 I 1======================1=============1=============1=============1=============1=============1  - 41 - MODERATE TABLE5:SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT SHARES (.) l=z•=••••••==••••••====I=~~~~~~~:=I=•~;~~;===I==~;~~~·=~I==~~;;::==J=;~;~;~~;= ·~;=~~~;;•,•;~;~~=;:=I 1•••••••••••••••••••••• 1•• 1 1981 I !~~~.... I1.!~~~~!=~-l.!~~~~!~~-1-~!~~;!~:!l 69.95 I 6.03 I 9.07 I .......... I -~~;::!~~! -~~;::!~~!II 4.67 10.29 452.16 990.14 1 1990 I 64.72 I 7.38 I 10.3 I 5.8 I 11.79 I 529.5 10&2.9 I l.!~~~---·===========··'··==~~~~~-1---··~~~~-1---=!~~~~-1-====~~!~.1---·!~~!!.l ...~~!~~~-1==!!~~~!~.1 MODERATE TABLE6:SECTORAL CAPITAL STOCK SHARES (.) 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I I AGRICUL- I LIGHT I HEAVY I INFRA- SERVICES+ I '······===============·1--!~:! I 1981 I .... ,~.!~~~~!=~-l.!~~~~!=~-l.!!:~~!~:!,.~~~~!~~--1 7.86 I 29.54 I 38.88 I I I 1990 2000 I I 9.61 8. 74 8.37 I 8.51 8.49 I I 14.11 34.57 37.33 I 15.09 16.38 I I 33.08 29.43 I 1============·=========1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 MODERATE TA6LE7:HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION SHARES (%) 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I I FOOD I OIL+COAL I MANU- I INFRA- I SERVICES I I I I I FACTURES I STRUCTURE! 1 1===============·======1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 1 1981 I 54.78 I 1.191 23.53 I 2.18 I 18.34 I 1 1990 . I 51.84 I o.95 25.39 I 2.51 I 19.3 I l.!~~~---============·='··==!!~~!.l ••••• ~~!~.l-===!~~~~-1-====~~~~-1---=~~~~!.l AT 1981 PRICES.FOOD INCL. PROCESSED FOOD,SERVICES INCL. MARGINS. MODERATE TABLE8:BALANCE OF PAVMENTS (BILLION U.S. DOLLARS) 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I , I EXPORTS I 1 FOe IMPORTS I NET I . CIF 1 NET I NET INTEREST I FOREIGN 1 TRANSFERS! BORROWING! I I =-CURRENT! DEBT STOCK I I l·~;;~··===·======·====j====;;::··',··=·;~:;~·l===··~:~;·!===·=~:;;=\=~:=;~~;;=1,·===·~:;··', I 1990 1 2000 I 1 63.34 216.63 I I 69.54 223. I I 1.38 9.16 I 0.9 1.61 6. 7 14.01 I 23.93 128.37 I l============·=·==·====t====··====l=•===·====l==========l====····=•l==========l==·===~===l NOTE: INCLUDES INTERNATIONAL INFLATION. DEBT NET OF RESERVES.  - 42 - MODERATE TABLE9:SECTORAL EXPORT SHARES (%) 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I I AGRICUL- I LIGHT I OIL+COAL I OTHER I INFRASTR+I I I TURE I INDUSTRY I I HEAVY INDI SERVICES I 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I 1981 I 10.73 I 39.7 I 22.85 I 22.45 I 4.27 1 I 1990 I 14. 42 I 39. 68 I 1 2. 63 I 2a. 1 I 4. 58 I I 2ooo I 14.oa I 35.92 I 10.1 I 35.32 I 4.58 1 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 NOTE: AT WORLD PRICES. MODERATE TABLE10:SECTORAL IMPORT SHARES (%) 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I I AGRICUL- I OIL+COAL I MACHINERY! OTHER I INFRASTR+I I I TURE I I I MANUFACT.I SERVICES I 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 1 53.67 I 1981 I 1990 1 2ooo I I I 15.88 I 12.67 8.32 I 0.54 I 5.57 I 5.76 I 29.17 I 27.38 I 29.65 I 53.68 I 55.59 I o.74 I 0.7 I o.6a I 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 NOTE: AT WORLD PRICES. MODERATE TABLE11:GROSS OUTPUT (BILLION 1981 YUAN) ===================================== ===========1===========1=========== 1981 I 1990 I 2ooo ===================================== 1 .CROPS ===========1===========1=========== 175.6 I 229.12 I· 301.1 2.ANIMAL-HUSB 41 . 6 I 69. 43 I 1 2a. 49 3.METALLURGY 45.69 I 75.22 I 129.8 4. ELECTRICITY 19.42 I 33.3 I 59.92 5.COAL 16.62 I 22.69 I 32.08 6.0IL EXTRACT 12.9 I 11.a1 I 25.48 7.0IL REFING 15.02 I 25.4 I 45.55 8.CHEMICAL 60.53 I 120.3 I 252.71 9.MACHINERY 113.05 I 233.42 I 459.88 10.BLDG.MATS. 23.21 I 42.41 I 74.77 11.FOOD PROC. 10. 19 I 134. 59 I 261 . 99 12. TEXTILE 1 o9. 21 I 195. 59 I 317. 61 13.0THER MFG. 49.9 I 97.47 I 177.16 14.CONSTRUCT. 75.05 I 132.75 I 230.4 15.TRANSPORT. 31.11 I 54.78 I 98.48 16.COMMERCE 52.09 I 89.15 I 155.3 17.0TH.SERV. 11.96 I 21.32 I 38.09 18.ED.+HEALTH 39.41 I 51.48 I 63.34 19.PUBL.ADMN. 9.61 I 11.2 I 13.68 20.HOUSING 11.21 I 2o.oa I 35.6 ===================================== ===========!===========!===========  43 MODERATE TABLE12:SHARES OF GOP (%) 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I I 1981 I 1990 I 2000 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I 1 . CROPS I 30. 6 I 25. 45 I 21 . 94 I I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I 4.06 I 4.21 I 4.66 I I 3.METALLURGV I 3.53 l 3.11 I 2.85 I I 4.ELECTRICITV I 2.56 I 3.27 I 3.98 J I 5.COAL I 1.83 I 1.61 I 1.46 I I 6.0IL EXTRACT I 1.89 I 3.47 I 4.24 I I 7.0IL REFING I 1.3 I 1.67 I 1.98 I I 8.CHEMICAL I 4.35 I 4.79 I 5.34 I I 9.MACHINERV I 8.91 I 10.16 I 10.62 I I I 2.23 I 2.25 I 2.11 I I I 10.BLOG.MATS. 11.FOOO PROC. 12. TEXTILE I I 4.06 I 7. I 4.33 I 6. 99 I 4.56 6. 15 I I 13.0THER MFG. I 3.95 I 4.53 I 4.67 I I 14.CONSTRUCT. I 4.15 I 4.46 I 4.76 I I 15.TRANSPORT. I 4.09 I 4.19 I 4.52 I I 16.COMMERCE I 6.37 I 6.01 I 5.9 I I 17.0TH.SERV. I 2.22 I 2.18 I 2.27 I I 18.EO.+HEALTH I 2.77 I 3.01 I 3.41 I I 19.PUBL.AOMN. I 2.1 I 2.06 I 2.05 I I 20.HOUSING I 2.05 I 2.25 I 2.51 I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 MODERATE TABLE13:EMPLOVMENT SHARES (%) 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I I 198 1 I 1990 I 2000 I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I 1.CROPS I 61.96 I 56.08 I 50.89 I I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I 7.98 I 8.65 I 9.9 I I 0.66 I I I I 3.METALLURGV 4.ELECTRICITV I 5.COAL I I 0.26 I 0.65 0.26 I 0.62 0.26 I I 6.0IL EXTRACT I 7.0IL REFING I I 1.03 0.09 0.04 I 1. I 0.07 I 0.04 I 0.97 0.06 0.04 I I I I 8.CHEMICAL I 1.2 I I I 9.MACHINERV I 10.BLOG.MATS. I 4.26 1.8 1.41 5.2 1.94 1.65 5.71 1.91 I I I 11.FOOD PROC. I I I 12.TEXTILE I 13.0THER MFG. I 0.98 2.29 2.76 1.23 2.66 3.5 1.48 2.67 3.94 I I I I I 14.CONSTRUCT. 15.TRANSPORT. I 16.COMMERCE I I 2.46 1.95 3.22 3.1 2.45 3.93 3.68 3.01 4.69 I I I 17.0TH.SERV. 0.71 0.98 1.33 I I 18.ED.+HEALTH I 3.91 4.36 4.5 I I 19 . PUBL. ADMN. I 2. 3 2 . 29 2 . 34 I I 20.HOUSING I 0.15 0.23 0.34 I 1============~========================1=========== =========== ===========I  - 44 - MODERATE TABLE14:CAPITAL STOCK SHARES (%) =====================================1===========1===========1=========== I 1981 I 1990 I 2000 =====================================1===========1===========1=========== l.CROPS I 7.21 I 5.18 I 4. 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I 2.39 I 3.56 I 4.38 3.METALLURGY I 5.15 I 4.78 I 4.64 4.ELECTRICITY I 3.55 I 5.05 I 6.47 5.COAL I 2.77 I 2.59 2.36 6.0IL EXTRACT I 1.25 I 2.54 3.08 7.0IL REFING I 0.57 I 0.8 0.98 8.CHEMICAL 1 4.24 I 5.02 5.95 9.MACHINERY I 13.19 I 16.33 17.85 10.BLDG.MATS. I 2.38 I 2.51 2.47 11.FOOD PROC. I 1.79 I 2.02 2.21 12. TEXTILE I 2. 89 I 2. 88 2. 64 13.0THER MFG. I 3.18 I 3.61 3.64 14.CONSTRUCT. I 2.04 I 2.06 2.03 15.TRANSPORT. I 8.52 I 7.99 7.89 16. COMMERCE I 18. 64 I 15. 36 13. 14 17.0TH.SERV. I 0.59 I 0.54 0.5 18.ED.+HEALTH I 2.14 I 1.89 1.73 19.PUBL.ADMN. I 4.02 I 3.18 2.88 20.HOUSING I 13.49 I 12.12 11.17 21.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) I 1280.35 I 2587.09 I 4926.2 I ====================================='==========='==========='===========' MODERATE TABLE15:EXPORT SHARES (%) ===================================== =========== 1981 =========== 1990 =========== 2000 ===================================== 1 . CROPS =========== 7. 79 =========== 11 . 54 =========== 11 . 07 2.ANIMAL-HUSB 2.94 2.87 3.02 3.METALLURGY 4.9 2.21 2.15 4.ELECTRICITY 0. 0. 0. 5.COAL 1.6 0.48 0.4 6.0IL EXTRACT 14.96 7.74 -0. 7.0IL REFING 6.28 4.41 9.7 8.CHEMICAL 6.97 5.77 6.85 9.MACHINERY 10.03 20.38 25.63 10.BLDG.MATS. 0.54 0.33 0.69 11.FOOD PROC. 6.71 7.62 7.76 12.TEXTILE 23.94 18.72 13.12 13.0THER MFG. 9.05 13.34 15.03 14.CONSTRUCT. 0. 0. 0. 15.TRANSPORT. 4.27 4.58 4.58 16.COMMERCE 0. 0. 0. 17.0TH.SERV. 0. 0. 0. 18.ED.+HEALTH 0. 0. 0. 19.PUBL.ADMN. 0. 0. 0. 20.HOUSING 0. 0. 0. 21.TOTAL (BILL us DOLLARS) I 22.5 I 63.34 216.63 22.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) I 38.44 I 73.82 I 140.99 =====================================1===========1===========1=========== NOTE:AT WORLD PRICES(IN U.S. DOLLARS)  - 45 - MODERATE TABLE16:IMPORT SHARES {%) 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I I 1981 I 1990 I 2ooo I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I 1.CROPS I 15.88 I 5.32 I 4.63 I I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I -0. I 7.36 I 3.69 I I 3.METALLURGV I 9.38 I 13.27 I 13.12 I I 4.ELECTRICITV I 0. I o. I 0. I I 5 • COAL I 0 • 45 I 5 . 14 I 4 •51 I I 6.0IL EXTRACT I 0. I -0. I 0.64 I I 7.0IL REFING I 0.09 I 0.42 I 0.61 I I 8.CHEMICAL I 12.14 I 21.72 I 26.33 I I 9.MACHINERV I 29.17 I 27.38 I 29.65 I I I I 10.BLDG.MATS. 11.FOOD PROC. 12.TEXTILE 1 I I -o. 3.51 19.05 1 I I 1.05 9.75 5.32 1 I I 0.47 1 8.22 4.9 I I 13.0THER MFG. I 9.58 I 2.56 I 2.55 I I 14.CONSTRUCT. I o. I 0. I 0. I I 15.TRANSPORT. I 0.74 I 0.7 I 0.68 I I 16. COMMERCE I 0. I 0. I 0. I I 17.0TH.SERV. I o. I 0. I 0. I I 18. ED. +HEALTH I 0. I 0. I 0. I I 19 • PUBL. ADMN • I 0. I 0. I 0. I I 20.HOUSING I 0. I o. I 0. I I 21. TOTAL (BILL us DOLLARS) I 21.71 I 69.54 I 223. ' I 22.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) I 36.77 I 70.78 I 122.2 I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 NOTE:AT WORLD PRICES(IN U.S. QOLLARS) MODERATE TABLE17:PRICE MOVEMENTS 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I I 1981 I 1990 I 2000 I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I I 1 • CROPS 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I I 1• 1. I 1. 09 1.06 I 1. 2 1.1 I I I I I 0.93 I 0.87 I I I 3.METALLURGV 4.ELECTRICITV 5. COAL I 1. 1. 1• I I 1.14 I 1 • 06 I 1.22 I 1 • 12 I I I 1.84 I 2.46 I I 6.0IL EXTRACT 7.0IL REFING 1 8.CHEMICAL I 1 1. 1. 1. I I 1.51 I o.95 I 1.81 I o.87 I I 9.MACHINERV I 1. I 0.93 I 0.85 I I 10.BLDG.MATS. I 1. I 0.94 I 0.87 I I 11 • FOOD PROC. I 1. I 1 . 01 I 1 • 02 I I 12. TEXTILE I 1• I 0. 95 I 0. 91 I I 13.0THER MFG. I 1. I 0.96 I 0.92 I I 14.CONSTRUCT. I 1. I 0.96 I 0.93 I I 15. TRANSPORT. I 1• I 1 • 01 I 1 . 04 I I 16.COMMERCE I 1. I 0.93 I 0.88 I I 17.0TH.SERV. I 1. I 0.92 I 0.89 I I 18.ED.+HEALTH I 1. I 1.26 I 1.72 I I 19.PUBL.ADMN. I 1. I 1.4 I 1.89 I I 20.HOUSING I 1. I 1.01 I 1.04 I I 21.GDP DEFLATOR I 1. I 1. I 1. I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1  - 46 - BALANCE TABLE1:KEY GROWTH RATES (% P.A. AT 1981 PRICES) •••••••••••••••••••••• .........• ....•..... • ••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• • ••••••••• GOP GOP PER NMP GVIAO EXPORTS IMPORTS •••••••••••••••••••••• 1981-1980 .......... 6.92 CAPITA •••••••••• •••••••••• • ••••••••• 5.86 6.48 6.74 .....•.... .......... 8.36 8.44 1990-2000 6.33 5.28 5.9 6.13 8.28 7.15 1881-2000 6.61 5.!55 6.17 6.42 8.32 7.76 •••••••••••••••••••••• •••••••••• .......... • ••••••••• • ••••••••• • ••••••••• ...•...... BALANCE TABLE2:GDP, AND DEMAND COMPOSITION •••••••••••••••••••••• •••••••••• GOP ........•. GOP •••••••••• •••••••••• INVEST- HOUSEHOLD ......•... ....•...•. ........... GOVT EXPORTS/ FOREIGN (BILLIONS PERCAPITA MENT/GDP CONSUMP- CONSUMP- GOP (%) TRADE OF 1981 ( 1981 us (%) TION/GOP TION/GOP DEFICIT/ •••••••••••••••••••••• 1981 YUAN) ••...••... .....•...• 4!57.67 DOLLARS) 300.73 (%) (%) •••••••••• • ••••••••• • ••••••••• • ••••••••• 28.48 5!5.93 1!5.3 8.36 ........... GOP (%) -0.29 1980 835.46 501.96 26.37 !58.5 16. 8.82 0.87 2000 1543.18 839.36 25.88 58.!5 16. 10.2!5 0.38 •••••••••••••••••••••• .•....•... .......... ........•. • ••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• • ••••••••• BALANCE TABLE3:SECTORAL SHARES OF GOP (%) •••••••••••••••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• • ••••••••• AGRICUL LIGHT HEAVY INFRA- SERVICES -TURE INDUSTRY INDUSTRY STRUCTURE •••••••••••••••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• •••••••••• • ••••••••• • ••••••••• 1981 34.66 15.01 24.03 10.8 15.!5 1980 28.75 13.93 23.8 12.21 20.31 2000 23.34 12.33 22.81 13.37 28.05 •••••••••••••••••••••• •••••••••• .......... • ••••••••• • ••••••••• • ••••••••• BALANCE TABLE4:GROSS OUTPUT GROWTH (% P.A. AT 1981 PRICES) 1===•==================1•========··==1·====·====·==1=··===·==~=-=,=============1==========·==1 . I AGRICUL- I . TURE LIGHT INDUSTRY HEAVY I··=···=·==··====·=·===1===========·=1=============,=============1=============1=============1 INDUSTRY INFRA- STRUCTURE I I SERVICES I I 1981-1990 I 4.6 I 7.87 7.26 I 7.52 8.74 I 1 199o-2ooo I 4.53 I 6.44 6.7t I 6.56 I 8.37 I l-1~~!:!~~~---·========l==·====·!~~:.l •••••••• !~!:.l ........:~~!.l ........!~~:.j ........:~~!.l  - 47 - BALANCE TABLE5:SECTORAL EMPLOYMENT SHARES (~) BALANCE TABLE6:SECTORAL CAPITAL STOCK SHARES (~) l======================l==========l==========l==========l==========j==z=======J I AGRICUL- I LIGHT I HEAVY I INFRA- SERVICES+! '··====================,==!~~=-===1=!~~~!!~~-l.!~~~!!:~.l.!!:~=!~~=l-~~~~!~:•• 1 I 1981 1990 I 9. 61 I 9.89 I 7. 98 7.04 I 29. 65 I 29.19 I 14. 08 I 16.52 I 38. 68 I 37.36 I l-!~~~-===============·'=====~~~=-'·====:~~~='====~:~:~.j •••• !:~~:.j •••• ~~~~!-1 BALANCE TABLE7:HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION SHARES (~) 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I I FOOD I OIL+COAL I MANU- I INFRA- I SERVICES I '·====================·'=========='=========='·~::!~:;!.j.!!:~:!~:=l---·======1 11981 I 54.76 I 1.19 I 23.53 I 2.18 I 18.34 I '-~~;~=-==============·'=·==;:;~~-1••••• ~~;!.! ....~!;!~.! .....!~~~-1 .... !~;~;.1 AT 1981 PRICES.FOOD INCL. PROCESSED FOOD,SERVICES INCL. MARGINS. BALANCE TABLE8:BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (BILLION U.S. DOLLARS) ======================1=========•1=•===·====1======•=•=1•=========1==========1==========1 1 I EXPORTS I FOB I IMPORTS I NET CIF I I INET I NET I FOREIGN I INTEREST TRANSFERS! BORROWING! DEBT I I I I I =-CURRENT! STOCK I '===============~====== I1 ========·='··====•=== I 1981 22.5 I 21.11 I 1 ==========1==========1=~:;~~==== 0.12 o.57 -1.23 I 1 ==========1 o.9 I 1990 I 68.1 I 74.79 I 1.5 I 0.9 I 7.3 I 26. I l.!~~~=-=============~='=~-!~!~~==1•==:!!~~--1====!~~~~-1.~---!~~!.l •••• !~~~~-1---!~!~~!.l NOTE: INCLUDES INTERNATIONAL INFLATION. DEBT NET OF RESERVES.  - 48 - BALANCE TABLE9:SECTORAL EXPORT SHARES (%) 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I I AGRICUL- I LIGHT I OIL+COAL I OTHER I INFRASTR+I I I TURE I INDUSTRY I I HEAVY INDI SERVICES I 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I 1981 I 10.73 I 39.7 I 22.85 I 22.45 1 4.27 1 I 1990 I 13.81 I 40. 14 I 11.06 I 30.43 1 4. s1 1 I 2ooo I 13.47 I 37.41 I 3.66 I 40.75 1 4.12 1 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 NOTE: AT WORLD PRICES. BALANCE TABLE10:SECTORAL IMPORT SHARES (%) 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I I AGRICUL- I OIL+COAL I MACHINERY! OTHER I INFRASTR+I I I TURE I I I MANUFACT.I SERVICES I 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 I 1981 I 15.88 I o.s4 I 29.17 I 53.67 I o. 74 1 I 1990 I 15.13 I 3.93 I 35.44 I 44.79 I 0.1 1 I 2000 I I 8.07 I I 3.15 I 39.25 I 48.85 0.69 1======================1==========1==========1==========1==========1==========1 NOTE: AT WORLD PRICES. BALANCE TABLE11:GROSS OUTPUT (BILLION 1981 YUAN) =====================================!=========== =========== =========== I 1981 1990 2000 =====================================I=========== 1.CROPS I 175.6 =========== 245.64 =========== 342.17 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I 41.6 79.87 164.69 3.METALLURGY I 45.69 73.68 122.09 4.ELECTRICITY I 19.42 35.44 68.23 5.COAL I 16.62 24.41 37.43 6.0IL EXTRACT I 12.9 17.81 25.48 7.0IL REFING I 15.02 25.4 45.55 8.CHEMICAL I 60.53 121.97 247.45 9.MACHINERY I 113.05 231.98 475.81 10.BLDG.MATS. I 23.21 43.91 78.25 11.FOOD PROC. I 70.19 157.81 337.04 12.TEXTILE I 109.27 200.38 333.06 13.0THER MFG. I 49.9 95.53 176.9 14.CONSTRUCT. I 75.05 146.11 271.52 15.TRANSPORT. I 31.11 59.69 115.69 16.COMMERCE I 52.08 114.97 273.1 17.0TH.SERV. I 11.95 55.39 177.32 18.ED.+HEALTH I 39.41 57.67 76.01 19.PUBL.ADMN. I 9.61 11.6 14.94 20.HOUSING I 11.21 I 24.5 I 48.48 =====================================1===========1===========1===========  49 - BALANCE TABLE12:SHARES OF GOP (%) 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I I 1981 I 199o I 2ooo I 1===========================~=========1===========1===========1===========1 I 1.CROPS I 30.6 I 24.77 I I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I 3.METALLURGV I I 4.06 I 3.53 I 4.98 I 2.59 17.5 2. I !5.84 I I 4.ELECTRICITV I 2.56 I 3.43 4.34 I I 5.COAL I 1.83 I 1.67 I 1.5 I I 6.0IL EXTRACT I 7 .OIL REFING I I 1.89 I 1.3 I 3.36 1.61 I 4.07 I 1.9 I I 8.CHEMICAL I 4.35 I 4.01 I 3. 75 I I 9.MACHINERV I 8.91 I 8.49 I 7.98 I I 10.BLDG.MATS. I 2.23 I 2.07 I 1.71 I I 11.FOOD PROC. I 4.0.6 I 4.09 I 4.08 I I 1 2. TEXTILE I 7. I 5. 89 I 4. 63 I I 13.0THER MFG. I 3.95 I 3.95 I 3.62 I I 14.CONSTRUCT. I 4.15 I 4.43 I 4.42 I I 4.09 I 4.35 I 4.6 I I 15.TRANSPORT. 16.COMMERCE I 17.0TH.SERV. I I 6.37 I 2.22 I 7.36 I 4.79 I 10.09 I 8.94 I I 18.ED.+HEALTH I 2.77 I 3.5 I 4.07 I I 19. PUBL. AOMN. I 2. 1 I 2. 17 I 2. 15 I I 20.HOUSING I 2.05 I 2.49 I 2.8 I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 BALANCE TABLE13:EMPLOVMENT SHARES (%) 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I I 1981 I 1990 I 2000 I 1=~:~;~:;=============================,=====~~:~;=1=====;~:~~=1=====;;:;;=1 I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I 7.98 I 9.95 I 12.69 I I 3.METALLURGV I 0.66 I 0.58 I 0.48 I I 4.ELECTRICITV I 0.26 I 0.25 I 0.24 I I 5.COAL I 1.03 I 0.98 I 0.93 I I 6.0IL EXTRACT I 0.09 I 0.06 I 0.05 I I I I I I 7.0IL REFING 8.CHEMICAL I 0.04 1.2 I 0.04 1.3 I 0,03 1.32 I I I 9.MACHINERV I I 4.26 I I 4.7 I I 4.84 I I I 10.BLOG.MATS. 1 1 . FOOD PROC . 12.TEXTILE I I 1.8 0 . 98 2.29 I I 1.83 1 . 31 2.48 I 1.64 1 . 56 2.3 I I I 13.0THER MFG. I 2.76 I 3.12 I 3.23 I I 14.CONSTRUCT. I 2.46 I 3.11 I 3.57 I I 1 5. TRANSPORT. I 1 . 95 I 2. 43 I 2. 91 I I 16.COMMERCE I 3.22 I 5.55 I 10. I I I I I I I I 17.0TH.SERV. 18.ED.+HEALTH l9.PUBL.AOMN. I I 0.71 3.91 2.3 I I 2.55 4.88 2.37 I I 6.21 5.4 2.56 I I 20.HOUSING I 0.15 I 0.28 I 0.47 I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1  50 - BALANCE TABLE14:CAPITAL STOCK SHARES (%) 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I I 198 1 I 1990 I 2ooo I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I 1 • CROPS I 7. 2 1 I 5. 28 I 3. 91 I I I I I I I I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB 3.METALLURGV 4.ELECTRICITV I I 2.39 5.07 3.55 I I 4.61 3.92 5.66 I I 5.89 3.2 7.39 I I 5. COAL I 2 •8 I 2 • 99 I 2. 91 I I 6.0IL EXTRACT I 1.25 I 2.6 I 3.06 I I 7.0IL REFING I 0.57 I 0.82 I 0.97 I I 8.CHEM1CAL I 4.17 I 4.05 I 4.03 I I 9.MACHINERV I 13.45 I 12.67 I 12.39 I I 10.BLDG.MATS. I 2.34 I 2.14 I 1.87 I I 11.FOOD PROC. I 1.76 I 1.86 I 1.92 I I 12. TEXTILE I 2. 94 I 2. 34 I 1 • 89 I I 13.0THER MFG. I 3.27 I 2.84 I 2.56 I I 14. CONSTRUCT. I 2. 01 I 1•9 I 1 • 73 I I 15.TRANSPORT. I 8.52 I 8.96 I 9.26 I I 16.COMMERCE I 18.45 I 15.74 I 15.04 I I 17.0TH.SERV. I 0.59 I 1.14 I 1.79 I I 18. EO. +HEALTH I 2. 14 I 2. 15 I 2. 06 I I 19.PUBL.ADMN. I 4.02 I 3.37 I 3.12 I I 20.HOUSING I 13.49 I 14.96 I 15.02 I I 21.TOTAL (BILL 1981 YUAN) I 1280.35 I 2529.35 I 5015.67 I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 BALANCE TABLE15:EXPORT SHARES (%) 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 1 I 198 1 I 1990 I 2000 l=====================================l===========i===========l=========== I 1.CROPS I 7.79 10.74 I 10.27 I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB I 2.94 I 3.07 I 3.2 I 3.METALLURGV I 4.9 I 4.38 I 4.17 I 4.ELECTRICITV I o. I 0. I 0. I 5.COAL I 1.6 I 0.48 I 0.39 I 6.0IL EXTRACT I 14.96 I 8.2 I 0.03 I I 6.28 I 2.38 I I I 7.0IL REFING 8.CHEMICAL 9.MACHINERV I 6.97 I 10.03 I 9.78 I 15. I 3.24 11.09 23.77 I 10.BLDG.MATS. I 0.54 I 1.28 I 1.72 I I 11 • Fooo PRoc. 12.TEXTILE 1 I I 6. 11 1 23.94 I 9.05 I a. 31 1 20.72 I 11.12 I 8. 21 14.4 I I 13.0THER MFG. 14. CONSTRUCT. I I 0. I 4. 27 I 0. I 14.75 0. I I 15. TRANSPORT. 16.COMMERCE 1 7. OTH. SERV. I o. 0. I I 4. 57 o. 0. I I 4. 72 0. 0. I 18. ED. +HEALTH I 0. I 0. I 0. I 19.PUBL.ADMN. I 0. I 0. I 0. I 20.HOUSING I 0. I 0. I 0. I 21.TOTAL (BILL us DOLLARS) I 22.5 I 68.1 I 261.8 I 1=~~~!~!~~=~~!~~=~;~~=~~~~~==========='=====~!~!!=1=====~;~~~='====~~;~!~=' NOTE:AT WORLD PRICES(IN U.S. DOLLARS)  - 51 - BALANCE TABLE16:IMPORT SHARES {%) 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I I 1981 I 1990 I 2ooo I 1=====================================1===========1===========1===========1 I 1.CROPS I 15.88 I 5.31 I 4.32 I I 2.ANIMAL-Huse 3.METALLURGV I 4.ELECTRICITV 1 I I -o. 9.38 I o. 1 I 9.82 1 9.6~ I 0. I 3.74 1 9.79 I o. I I 5.COAL I 0.45 I 3.52 I 2.6 I I 6.orL EXTRACT 1 o. 1 -o. 1 -o. 1 I 7 .OIL REFING I 0.09 I 0.41 I 0.55 I I 8.CHEMICAL I 12.14 I 18.17 I 21.38 I I 9.MACHINERV I 29.17 I 35.44 I 39.25 I I 10.BLDG.MAT5. 1 -o. 1 0.45 1 o.39 1 I 11.FOOD PROC. I 3.51 I 7.26 I 6.75 I I 12. TEXTILE I 19. 05 I 5. I 4. 14 I I 13.0THER MFG. I 9.58 I 4.23 I 6.39 I I 14.CONSTRUCT. I 0. I 0. I 0. I I 15. TRANSPORT. I 0. 74 I 0. 7 I 0.69 I I HLCOMMERCE I o. I o. I o. I I 17 • OTH. SERV. I 0• I 0. I 0. I I 18. ED. +HEALTH I 0. I 0. I 0. I I 19. PUBL. ADMN. I 0. l 0. I 0. I I I 20.HOUSING 21.TOTAL (BILL us DOLLARS) I I 0. 21.71 I I 0. I 74.79 I 0. 271.5 I I 1-~~~!~!~;.~~;:;.!~:!=~~~~~=-========='=====~~~;~='=====~~~~~='====!;:~~:=1 NOTE:AT WORLD PRICES(IN U.S. DOLLARS) BALANCE TABLE17:PRICE MOVEMENTS l=====================================,===========l===========l===========j 1 1981 I 199o I 2ooo l==============================·======l===========l===========j===========l I !.CROPS 1. I 1.09 1.06 I I I I I I 2.ANIMAL-HUSB 3.METALLURGV I 1. 1. I I 1.1 0.93 I I 1.16 0.88 I I I 4.ELECTRICITV 5 COAL I 1. 1. I 1.24 1. 11 I 1.44 1. 22 I 1 I I s:oxL EXTRACT 7.0IL REFING 8.CHEMICAL 1 I 1. 1. 1. I I I 1.97 1.62 0.93 I I I 2.92 2.15 0.88 I 9.MACHINERV 1. I 0.9 I 0.84 I I I I I 10.BLDG.MATS. 11. FOOD PROC. 12. TEXTILE I I 1. 1• 1. I 0.94 0. 99 0.91 I I 0.89 0. 97 0.87 I I 13.0THER MFG. I 1. I 0.96 I 0.92 I I I I I 14.CONSTRUCT. 1!5. TRANSPORT. 16.COMMERCE I I 1. 1• 1. I 0.96 1 • 05 0.96 I I 0.93 1 • 13 0.98 I I I I I 17.0TH.SERV. 18.ED.+HEALTH I 1. 1. I 0.88 1.32 I 0.95 1.88 I 19.PUBL.ADMN. 20.HOUSING 21.GDP DEFLATOR I I 1. 1. 1. I I I 1.58 1 .02 1. I 2.27 1.06 1. I I I =====================================!===========!=========== ===========!  - 52 - 6. URBAN-RURAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT, CAPITAL AND OUTPUT 1981-2000 6.01 Table 6.1 provides some alternative projections of the distribution between urban and rural areas of employment, capital, and gross output, associated with the three macroeconomic projections. There are, of course, many possible urban-rural distributions of employment, capital, and gross output that could accompany each of the macroeconomic projections, but the assumptions underlying the alternative distributions are consistent with the overall themes of the macroeconomic projections. 6.02 In QUADRUPLE, the Government is assumed to pursue a strategy of rural industrialization. Urban employment still grows more rapidly than rural employment, but the share of total rural employment accounted for by nonagricultural activities is assumed to increase from 14% in 1981 to 25% in 2000. This is quite a high ratio for a lower-middle-income country, but not an impossible one. It is also assumed that the rural share of the nonagricul- tural capital stock increases. Capital per worker in nonagricultural activities grows almost as rapidly in rural as in urban areas (see Table 6.2) and gross output per worker in nonagricultural activities grows more rapidly in rural areas. Total gross output per worker also grows more rapidly in rural than in urban areas as the increase in the proportion of rural workers in nonagricultural activities (which have higher levels of gross output per worker than agriculture) offsets the fact that rural areas have a larger share of the labor force in the slower growing agricultural sector. 6.03 In MODERATE, it is assumed that rural areas have to absorb a much larger share of the labor force than in QUADRUPLE, but there is no accompany- ing shift in the distribution of capital stock in favor of rural areas. In urban areas, enterprises respond to labor shortages by adopting more capital- intensive techniques, and capital per worker and gross output per worker both increase more rapidly than in QUADRUPLE. In rural areas by contrast, because of a shortage of capital, output per worker growth is much below projected levels in QUADRUPLE. 6.04 In BALANCE, it is assumed that the increased service orientation of the economy and the consequently slower growth in agricultural employment are accompanied by a more rapid growth in urban employment than in either QUADRUPLE or MODERATE. At the same time there is a shift in the distribution of nonagricultural capital in favor of rural areas. The overall increase in efficiency in the use of capital in this projection relative to QUADRUPLE and MODERATE has Lts major impact on the urban and specifically on the state enterprise sector. As a result, gross output per worker grows only slightly less rapidly than capital per worker in urban areas. However, output as well as capital per worker growth rates are higher in rural than in urban areas.  - 53 - Table 6.1: URBAN-RURAL DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT, CAPITAL AND OUTPUT UNDER ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS 1981-2000 Employment Capital stock Gross output (1981 Yuan) (1981 Yuan) 1981 Total 452.2 mil. 1,280.4 bil. 983.5 bil. % Rural Agricultural 65.2 8.4 19:5 % Rural Nonagricultural 10.6 10.0 10.8 % Urban Nonagricultural 19.5 80.4 67.1 % Urban Agricultural 4.7 1.2 2.6 QUADRUPLE 2000 Total 631.1 mil. 5,539.1 bil. 3 2 592.5 bil. % Rural Agricultural 55.0 7.7 12.4 % Rural Nonagricultural 18.2 13.9 19.8 % Urban Nonagricultural 22.8 77.3 66.1 % Urban Agricultural 4.0 1.1 1.7 MODERATE 2000 Total 631.1 mil. 4,926.2 bil. 2 z901.4 bil. % Rural Agricultural 56.7 7.3 13.0 % Rural Nonagricultural 23.1 8.9 14.9 % Urban Nonagricultural 16.1 82.7 70.3 % Urban Agricultural 4.1 1.1 1.8 BALANCE 2000 Total 631.1 mil. 5,015.7 bil. 3,431.3 bil. % Rural Agricultural 48.6 8.6 13.0 % Rural Nonagricultural 19.2 14.7 18.1 % Urban Nonagricultural 28.5 75.5 67.1 % Urban Agricultural 3.7 1.2 1.8  - 54 - Table 6.2: GROWTH IN CAPITAL AND OUTPUT PER WORKER IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS UNDER ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS 1981-2000 (% p.a.) Ca(!ital Eer worker Gross out(!ut Eer worker Agriculture Nonagric. Total Agriculture Nonagric. Total (a) QUADRUPLE Urban 6.6 5.0 5.3 3.7 4.2 4.5 Rural 6.6 4.9 7.2 3.6 5.6 5.7 Total 6.6 4.5 6.1 3.6 4.0 5.2 (b) MODERATE Urban 5.5 6.7 6.6 2.7 5.3 5.2 Rural 5.5 0.7 4. 5 2.6 1.5 3.3 Total 5.5 4.1 5.5 2.6 3.1 4.0 (c) BALANCE Urban 7.3 3.1 3.7 4.2 2.8 3.3 Rural 7.3 4.4 7.5 4.3 4.5 5.7 Total 7.3 3.0 5.6 4.3 2.9 5.0  Appendix A - 55 - Page 1 of 8 APPENDIX A: GLOSSARY OF SYMBOLS The following list of symbols, which is needed to interpret Appendices B-D, is divided into three sections: endogenous variables; exogenous variables; and coefficients (parameters). Within each section, the order is alphabetical. This arrangement corresponds with the "symbol declara- tions" at the beginning of the computer program in Appendix B. The subscript i (or j) refers to sectors, which are listed in full in Chapter 2 of the main text of this annex. The letter Rat the end of a symbol stands for "real" (at base year prices); the letter N for "nominal" (at current prices). In some cases a variable subscripted i may be both endogenous and exogenous (in different sectors); in these cases it is defined below only in the endogenous variable list. Endogenous Variables ACCRATE = accumulation rate (MPS concept) AI<i = incremental capital-to-gross-output ratio in sector i AQBUYRi = total intermediate purchases of sector 1 (real) AQBUYi = total intermediate purchases of sector 1 (nominal) AQSELLi = total intermediate sales of sector i (nominal) AQSELRi = total intermediate sales of sector i (real) AQij = intermediate sales of sector i to sector j (real) Aij = input-output coefficients CCLAIM = total incremental household consumption claims CCLAIMi = incremental household consumption claim of sector i CMAT = household consumption (MPS concept) CMATSHR = CMAT as ratio of national income available CN = household consumption (SNA concept) CPI = household consumption price index CR = real household consumption CRPCi = real per capita household consumption 1n sector i CRi = real household consumption 1.n sector i Ci = nominal household consumption in sector i  - 56 - Appendix A Page 2 of 8 OOi = total domestic demand 1n sector 1 (real) OEPR = total depreciation OEPRi = depreciation 1n sector 1 DOLOEBT = net foreign debt 1n current dollars OOLOS = interest on foreign debt 1n current dollars OOLM = total imports in current dollars OOLMi = imports 1n sector i in current dollars DOLNTR = net transfers from abroad in current dollars DOL SF = net foreign borrowing in current dollars OOLX = total exports in current dollars OOLXi = exports of sector 1 in current dollars OS = interest on foreign debt in domestic currency EXCHR = exchange rate (yuan per dollar) FI = total fixed investment (nominal) Fii = fixed investment 1n sector 1 FK = total fixed capital stock (real) FKi = fixed capital stock in sector 1 GOP = gross domestic product (real) GDPPERCA = gross domestic product per capita GMAT = public consumption (MPS concept) GMATSHR = GMAT as share of national income available GN = public consumption (SNA concept) GRi = real public consumption in sector i GVIAO = gross value of industrial and agricultural output GVO = total gross output of all sectors (1-20) Gi = nominal public consumption in sector 1  Appendix A - 57 - Page 3 of 8 HYDSHR = primary electricity share of total electricity output ICLAIMi = investment claim of sector 1 IMAT = accumulation (MPS concept) IN = total investment (SNA concept) INEEDi = preliminary investment claim of sector 1 (sectors 9, 12, 13 only) INVRATE = IN as share of nominal GDP IORi real volume of investment go~ds supplied by sector i IOi = nominal volume of investment goods supplied by sector i IRESID = residual of IN after meetirlg claims of sectors other than 9, 12, 13 ISHRi = investment 1n sector 1 as share of total investment Ii = investment in sector 1 K = total capital stock (real) Ki = capital stock of sector i Li = employment in sector i M = total imports in domestic currency (real) MILINV = defence investment MLOSS = losses on imports due to domestic-world price differences Mi = imports in sector i in domestic currency (real) N = total intermediate use in sector 1 (crops) NADJ = N minus predetermined inputs NIA = national income available (MPS concept) NMP = nominal net material product (MPS concept of national income)  - 58 - Appendix A Page 4 of 8 NMPREAL = real net material product NMPSHRi = sectoral shares of nominal Nh~ NMPi = net material product of sector i NQSHRi = sectoral shares of nominal GDP NQi = sectoral net output (SNA concept) NTR = net transfers from abroad in domestic currency PAIBAR = average profit rate on capitaL in sectors {-17 PAIZ = dummy profit rate·in sector 3 used in updating prices ' PAii = profit rate in sector i PAR = ratio of labor force tb population PBAR = GDP deflator (nominal GDP divided by real GDP) PHii = sectoral shares in the supply of circulating investment goods PK = price index of capital goods POP = population PROF = total profits in sectors 1-17 PROFi = profits in sector 1 Pi = price in sector i QSMAT = total production of material-goods QSi = gross output of sector i (real) REALPCC = real· per capita household consumption RENT = housing depreciation plus net rent (return to capital) SD = total nominal domestic savings (SNA concept) SF = foreign borrowing in domestic currency SK = total investment in circulating capital (nominal)  Appendix A - 59 - Page 5 of 8 SKDISCR = discrepancy between actual SK and desired SK SKOi = circulating investment goods supplied by sector 1 SKSHR = SK as share of IN SKi = sector i's investment 1n circulating capital T = state of "technology" 1n crop production VRAT17 = ratio of sector 17's net material product to its adjusted gross output (adjusted fo~ intermediat~ use of its own output) l/ WB = total wage bi 11 WBAR average wage rate WBi = wage bill of sector 1 WK = total circulating capital stock (real) WKi = circulating capital stock of sector i Wi = wage rate in sector 1 X = total exports in domestic currency (real). XLOSS = losses on exports due to domestic-world price differences XMFD = manufactured exports (sectors 9, 11, 12, 13 only) Xi = exports of sector i in domestic currency (real) y = nominal GOP YH = household income 1/ The net output of sector 17 (miscellaneous services) has to be split in the MPS accounts between material production (intermediate use of miscellaneous services in material production sectors, which is added to the output of those. sectors) and other uses that do not contribute to material production. VRAT17 is used to abbreviate the equations used for this calculation.  - 60 - Appendix A Page 6 of 8 Zi = pr1ce 1n sector i (notation used only in price updating block) Exogenous Variables AFUELi = fuel input coefficient of sector i AGINTi = sector i's share of intermediate input~ used in crop production ALPHAi = relative wage ratio (sector i divided by sector 3) . Ai.i · = labor input coefficient (per unit of gross output) in sector i A0608A = coefficient determining crude oil use as fuel in chemicals A0608B = coefficient determining crude oil use as feedstock 1n chemicals A7108A = coefficient determining fuel oil use as fuel in chemicals A7108B = coefficient determining fuel oil use as feedstock in chemicals A72jA = coefficient determining distillate use for own-account trucks in sector j A72jB = coefficient determining other distillate use 1n sector j BETA! = exponent on capital in crop production function BETA2 = exponent on intermediate inputs in crop production function  -\61 - Appendix A Page 1 q,f ·a Bi = sectoral shares in supply of fixed investment goods CDEi = household consumption demand elasticity in sector i DOLNTRBS net transfers from abroad 1n dollars in the base year DTGTi = target trade deficit 1n sector i (ratio of DDi) Di = dummy variables used to make sectoral contributions to circulating investment 1n the base year conform with the estimated input-output table for that year (= 1 in all subsequent years) Ei = share of sector i in public consumption HYDPOW = primary electricity production INTEREST = interest rate on foreign debt L = total labor force LTSHR = share of distillates in refined petroleum output MSHAREi = minimum import ratio (of DDi) in sector i MU = ratio of domestic savings to nominal GOP NGROW = growth rate of intermediate use in crop production POPGROW = growth rate of population QGROWi = growth rate of gross output in sector i RHOi = target ratio of circulating to total capital in sector i SMALLF = target ratio of foreign debt to exports SMALLG = public share of total consumption (SNA basis) SMALLR = ratio of RENT to housing capital stock TGROW = rate of increase of T WPINDX = index of world price inflation WPINDXi = world price index in sector i  - 62 - Appendix A Page 8 of 8 · 1 XSHAREi = minimum export ratio (of QSi) in sector i XTGTi = sector i's target share of XMFD ZETAi = relative profit ratio (sector i divided by sector 3) Coefficients CALi = calorific value of a unit of sector i's output CFMi = base year ratio of world to domestic prices of sector i's imports CFXi = base year ratio of world to domestic prices of sector i's exports DAMP = damping coefficient (similarly DAMPl, DAMP2) DELTAi = depreciation rate in sector 1 EXCHBS = exchange rate in base year KAPPA = damping coefficient MILSHRi = defence investment share of public consumption (SNA basis) in sector i SMALLS = household saving ratio (out of YH)  63 - Appendix B - ' Page 1 pf 21 APPENDIX 8: COMPUTER PROGRAM OF THE MODEL This is a full listing of the first 704 equations of the model, with some explanatory comments. It includes all the equations that play an active part in determining the solution, and provides more detail than is in Chapter 2 of this annex concerning the lags, damping, and specifications used. These 704 equations also include some redundant equations, used to calculate supplementary variables that facilitate interpretation of the results. Among these are the equations (653-696) that calculate the MPS national accounts. To save space, equations 705-927 are omitted: they are all redundant and elementary (calculating CRi, CRPCi, GRi, IORi, AQij, AQBUYi' and AQSELLi). The arithmetic symbols used in the equations are self-explanatory, except that ** denotes an exponential relationship (e.g. y**x is yx). The model is written and solved in the TROLL system (version 11.5) developed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology for use on IBM compu,ters. (In this system, endogenous variables do not need to be placed on the left-hand-side of the equations, although most of them are in this model.) The 927 equations of the model are arranged by TROLL into 620 blocks, each of which is solved separately in an appropriate sequence. Of these blocks, 616 contain only one equation, and one contains only two equations (DD71 and M71). The remaining three multi-equation blocks are: (i) a 244-equation block containing national income, sectoral net output, household consumption, public consumption, investment by sector of origin, gross output in demand-driven sectors, coal and fuel oil input coefficients, and exports and imports (in domestic currency and in dollars); (ii) a 42-equation block containing wage rates, wage bills and rent; and (iii) a 23-equation block containing the price updating equations. These multi-equation blocks can be solved in TROLL by several methods. The Newton-Raphson method was used for this model. This technique is iterative. A vector of variables is estimated at each iteration and compared with the vector in the previous iteration. This continues until the difference between every element of these two vectors is smaller than a pre- specified small number (in this case 0.0001). More information about the TROLL software package may be obtained from: IPS Technical Services, MIT Building 39-427, Cambridge, MA 02319, U.S.A. Telephone (617) 253-8421. MODEL: CHA3 SYMBOL DECLARATIONS ENDOGENOUS: ACCRATE AK04 AQBUVROl AQBUVR02 AQBUVR11 AQBUVOI AQBUV02 AQBUVll AQSELLOI AQSELL02 AQSELLll AQSELROl AQSELR02 AQSELR11 AQOIOI AQ0102 AQ0103 AQ0104 AQ0105 AQ0106 AQ0107 AQ0108 AQ0109 AQ0110 AQOlll AQ0112 AQ0113 AQ0114 AQ0115 AQ0116 AQ0117 AQ0118 AQ0119 AQ0120 AQ0201 AQ0202 AQ0203 AQ0204 AQ0205 AQ0206 AQ0207 AQ0208 AQ0209 AQ0210 AQ0211 AQ0212 AQ0213 AQ0214 AQ0215 AQ0216 AQ0217 AQ0218 AQ0219 AQ0220 AQ0301 AQ0302 AQ0311 AQ0401 AQ0402 AQ0411 AQ0501 AQ0502 AQ0511 AQOGOI AQ0602 AQ0611 AQ0801 AQ0802 AQ0811 AQ0901 AQ0902 AQ0911 AQ1001 AQ1002 AQ1011 AQ1101 AQ1102 AQ1103 AQ1104 AQ1105 AQ1106 AQ1107 AQ1108 AQ1109 AQ1110 AQ1111 AQ1112 AQ1113 AQ1114 AQ1115 AQ1116 AQ1117 AQ1118 AQ1119 AQ1120 AQ1201 AQ1202 AQ1211 AQ1301 AQ1302 AQ1311 AQ1401 AQ1402 AQ1411 AQ1501 AQ1502 AQ1511 AQ1601 AQ1602 AQ1611 AQ1701 AQ1702 AQ1711 AQ1801 AQ1802 AQ1811 AQ1901 AQ1902 AQ1911 AQ2001 AQ2002 AQ2011 AQ7101 AQ7102 AQ7111 AQ7201 AQ7202 AQ7211 A0301 A0501 A0502 A0503 A0504 A0505 A0506 A0508 A0509 A0510 A0511 A0512 A0513 A0514 A0515 A0516 A0517 A0518 A0519 A0520 A0608 A0801 A0901 A1001 AllOt A1201 A1301 A1401 A1501 A1601 A1701 A1801 A1901 A2001 A7103 A7107 A7108 A7109 A7110 A7111 A7112 A7113 A7116 A7117 A7118 A7119 A7120 A7201 A7202 A7203 A7204 A7205 A7206 A7207 A7208 A7209 A7210 A7211 A7212 A7213 A7214 A7215 A7216 A7217 A7218 A7219 A7220 CCLAIM CCLAIMOI CCLAIM02 CCLAIM03 CCLAIM04 CCLAIM05 CCLAIM06 CCLAIM08 CCLAIM09 CCLAIM10 CCLAIM11 CCLAIM12 CCLAIM13 CCLAIM14 CCLAIM15 CCLAIM16 CCLAI~17 CCLAIM18 CCLAIM19 CCLAIM20 CCLAIM71 CCLAIM72 CMAT CMATSHR CN CPI CR CRPCOI CRPC02 CRPC03 CRPC04 CRPC05 CRPC06 CRPCOB CRPC09 CRPC10 CRPCII CRPCI2 CRPC13 CRPC14 CRPCI5 CRPCI6 CRPC17 CRPCIB CRPCI9 CRPC20 CRPC71 CRPC72 CROl CR02 CR03 CR04 CR05 CR06 CROB CR09 CRlO CRll CRI2 CR13 CRI4 CRI5 CR16 CR17 CRIB CRI9 CR20 CR71 CR72 COl C02 C03 C04 COS COG COB C09 CIO Cll Cl2 C13 C14 CIS Cl6 Cl7 CIS C19 C20 C71 C72 0001 0002 0003 0004 0005 ODOG 0008 0009 0010 DOll DD12 DD13 0014 0015 0016 0017 0018 0019 0020 DD71 0072 DEPR DEPR18 DEPR19 OOLOEBT OOLOS DOLM DOLMO I DOLMO 2 DOLM03 DOLM04 DOLM05 DOLM06 DOLM08 DOLM09 DOLM 10 DOLM 11 DOLM 1 2 DOLM 13 DOLM 14 .. DOLM15 DOLM16 D0LM17 DOLM18 DOLM19 DOLM20 DOLM71 DOLM72 OOLNTR DOLSF DOLX DOLXOl DOLX02 DOLX03 DOLX04 DOLX05 DOLX06 DOLX08 DOLX09 DOLXIO DOLX11 DOLX12 DOLX13 DOLX14 DOLX15 DOLX16 DOLXI7 DOLX18 DOLX19 DOLX20 DOLX71 DOLX72 DS EXCHR FI FIOl FI02 FI03 FI04 FI05 FlOG FI07 FI08 FI09 FI10 Fill FI12 FI13 F114 FI15 FI16 FII7 FilS FII9 FI20 FK FKOI FK02 FK03 FK04 FK05 FKOG FK07 FKOB FK09 FKIO FK11 FK12 FK13 FKI4 FK15 FK16 FKI7 FK18 FK19 FK20' GOP GDPPERCA GMAT GMATSHR GN GROl GR02 GR03 GR04 GR05 GR06 GROB GR09 GRID GRII GR12 GR13 GR14 GR15 GR16 GR17 GR18 GR19 GR20 GR71 GR72 GVIAO GVO GOl G02 G03 G04 G05 G06 GOB G09 GlO Gil Gl2 G13 G14 G15 G16 G17 G18 G19 G20 G71 G72 HVDSHR ICLAIMOI ICLAIM02 ICLAIM03 ICLAIM04 1CLAIM05 ICLAIM06 ICLAIM07 ICLAIM08 ICLAIM09 ICLAIMlO ICLA1M11 ICLAIM12 ICLAIMI3 ICLAIM14 ICLAIM15 ICLAIM16 ICLAIM17 ICLAIMIB ICLAIM19 ICLAIM20 IMAT IN INEED INEED09 INEED12 INEED13 INVRATE IOR01 IOR02 10R03 IOR04 IOR05 IOR06 IOROB IOR09 IORIO IOR11 IOR12 IOR13 IOR14 IOR15 IOR16 IOR17 IOR18 IOR19 10R20 IOR71 10R72 1001 1002 1003 1004 I005 1006 1008 1009 1010 IOll 1012 1013 1014 1015 101G 1017 1018 I019 I020 I071 I072 IRESID lSHROl ISHR02 ISHR03 ISHR04 ISHR05 ISHR06 ISHR07 ISHROB ISHR09 ISHR10 1SHR11 ISHR12 ISHR13 ISHR14 1SHR15 1SHR16 1SHR17 1SHR18 1SHR19 1SHR20 101 102 103 I04 I05 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 K K01 K02 K03 K04 K05 KOG K07 K08 K09 KlO Kll K12 K13 K14 K15 Kl6 K17 K18 K19 K20 LOl L02 L03 L04 L05 LOG L07 LOB L09 LlO Lll L12 L13 Li4 L15 L16 L17 LIB L19 L20 M M1L1NV MLOSS MOl M02 M03 M04 M05 M06 MOB M09 M10 Mil M12 M13 M14 M15 M16 M17 M18 M19 M20 M71 M72 ,N NADJ NIA NMP NMPREAL NMPSHROI NMPSHR02 NMPSHR03 NMPSHR04 NMPSHR05 NMPSHR06 NMPSHR07 NMPSHR08 NMPSHR09 NMPSHR10 NMPSHR11 NMPSHR12 NMPSHR13 NMPSHR14 NMPSHR15 NMPSHR16 NMPOI NMP02 NMP03 NMP04 NMP05 NMP06 NMP07 NMPOB NMP09 NMP10 NMP11 NMP12 NMP13 NMP14 NMP15 NMP1G NQSHROl NQSHR02 NQSHR03 NQSHR04 NQSHR05 NQSHROG NQSHR07 NQSHR08 NQSHR09 NQSHR10 NQSHR11 NQSHR12 NQSHR13 NQSHR14 NQSHR15 NQSHRlG NQSHR17 NQSHR18 NQSHR19 NQSHR20 NQ01 NQ02 NQ03 NQ04 NQ05 NQ06 NQ07 NQ08 NQ09 NQ10 NQ11 NQ12 NQ13 NQ14 NQ15 NQ16 NQ17 NQIB NQ19 NQ20 NTR PAIBAR PAIZ PAI03 PAR PBAR PHI02 PHI03 PHI05 PHI06 PHI08 PHI09 PHilO PH111 PH112 PHI13 PHI71 PH172 PK POP PROF PROF01 PROF02 PROF03 PROF04 PROF05 PROF06 PROF07 PROFOB PROF09 PROF10 PROF11 PROF12 PROF13 PROF14 PROF15 PROF16 PROF17 POl P02 P03 P04 P05 P06 P07 P08 P09 P10 Pll P12 P13 P14 PIS Pl6 P17 P18 P19 P20 P71 P72 QSMAT QSOI QS02 QS03 QS04 QS05 QS06 QS07 QSOB QS09 QS10 QS11 QSI2 QS13 QS14 QS15 QSI6 QS17 QS18 QS19 QS20 QS71 QS72 REALPCC RENT SO SF SK SKOISCR SKOOI SKSHR SKOl SK02 SK03 SK04 SK05 SK06 SK07 SKOB SK09 SKID SK11 SK12 SK13 SK14 SK15 SK16 SK17 SKIS SK19 SK20 T VRAT17 WB WBAR WBOI WB02 WB03 WBD4 WB05 WB06 WB07 WBOB WB09 WBIO WB11 WB12 WB13 WB14 WB15 W816 W817 WB18 WB19 WB20 WK WKOI WK02 WK03 WK04 WK05 WK06 WK07 WK08 WK09 WKIO WK11 WK12 WK13 WK14 WK15 WK16 WK17 WKIB WK19 WK20 W01 W02 W03 W04 W05 W06 W07 WOB W09 WID Wll W12 W13 W14 W15 Wl6 W17 W1B W19 W20 X XLOSS XMFD X01 X02 X03 X04 X05 X06 X08 X09 X10 XII X12 X13 X14 X15 XlG X17 X18 X19 X20 X71 X72 V VH Z01 Z02 '·· Z03 Z04 Z05 Z06 Z07 Z08 Z09 ZIO Z11 Z12 Z13 Z14 Zl5 ZIG Z17 Z18 Z19 Z20 Z71 Z72 EXOGENOUS: AFUELOl AFUEL02 AFUEL03 AFUEL04 AFUEL05 AFUEL06 AFUEL07 AFUEL08 AFUEL09 AFUEL10 AFUEL 11 AFUEL12 AFUEL13 AFUEL14 AFUEL15 AFUEL16 AFUEL17 AFUEL18 AFUEL19 AFUEL20 AGINT03 AGINTOB AGINT09 AGINT10 AGINT11 AGINT12 AG1NT13 AGINT14 AG1NT15 AGINT16 AG1NT17 AGINT18 AG1NT19 AGINT20 AK02 AK03 AK05 AK06 AK07 AK08 AK09 AKIO AK 11 AK12 AKI3 AK14 AK15 AK16 AK17 AK18 AK19 AK20 AK4A AK4B ALPHA01 ALPHA02 ALPHA04 ALPHA05 ALPHA06 ALPHA07 ALPHA OS ALPHA09 ALPHAlO ALPHA 11 ALPHAI2 ALPHA 13 ALPHAI4 ALPHA IS ALPHA16 ALPHA17 ALPHA18 ALPHA19 ALPHA20 AL02 AL03 AL04 AL05 ALOG AL07 ALOB AL09 ALIO AL 11 AL12 AL13 ALI4 AL15 ALIG AL17 AL18 AL19 AL20 A0101 A0102 A0103 A0104 A0105 A0106 A0107 A0108 A0109 A0110 A0111 A0112 A0113 A0114 AO 115 A0116 A0117 A0118 A0119 A0120 A02 A0201 A0202 A0203 A0204 A0205 A0206 A0207 A0208 A0209 A0210 A0211 A0212 A0213 A0214 A0215 A0216 A0217 A0218 A0219 A0220 A03 A0302 A0303 A0304  A0305 A0306 A0307 A0308 A0309 A0310 A0311 A0312 A0313 A0314 A0315 A0316 A0317 A0318 A0319 A0320 A04 A0401 A0402 A0403 A0404 A0405 A0406 A0407 A0408 A0409 A0410 A0411 A0412 A0413 A0414 A0415 A0416 A0417 A0418 A0419 A0420 ADS A0507 A06 A0601 A0602 A0603 A0604 A0605 A0606 A0607 A0608A A06088 A0609 A0610 A0611 A0612 A0613 A0614 A0615 A0616 A0617 A0618 A0619 A0620 A07 A08 A0802 A0803 A0804 A0805 A0806 A0807 A0808 A0809 A0810 A0811 A0812 A0813 A0814 A0815 A0816 A0817 A0818 A0819 A0820 A09 A0902 A0903 A0904 A0905 A0906 A0907 A0908 A0909 A0910 A0911 A0912 A0913 A0914 A0915 A0916 A0917 A0918 A0919 A0920 AIO A1002 A1003 A1004 A1005 A1006 A1007 A1008 A1009 A1010 A1011 A1012 A1013 A1014 A1015 A1016 A1017 A1018 A1019 A1020 All A1102 A1103 A1104 A1105 A1106 A1107 A1108 A1109 A1110 A1111 A1112 A1113 A1114 AlliS A1116 A1117 A1118 A1119 A1120 A12 A1202 A1203 A1204 A1205 A1206 A1207 A1208 A1209 A1210 A1211 A1212 A1213 A1214 A1215 A1216 A1217 A1218 A1219 A1220 A13 A1302 A1303 A1304 A1305 A1306 A1307 A1308 A1309 A1310 A1311 A1312 A1313 A1314 A1315 A1316 A1317 A1318 A1319 A1320 A14 A1402 A1403 A1404 A1405 A1406 A1407 A1408 A1409 A1410 A1411 A1412 A1413 A1414 A1415 A1416 A1417 A1418 A1419 A1420 A15 A1502 A1503 A1504 A1505 A1506 A1507 A1508 A1509 A1510 A1511 A1512 A1513 A1514 A1515 A1516 A1517 A1518 A1519 A1520 A16 A1602 A1603 A1604 A1605 A1606 A1607 A1608 A1609 A1610 A1611 A1612 A1613 A1614 A1615 A1616 A1617 A1618 A1619 A1620 A17 A1702 A1703 A1704 A1705 ~1706 A1707 A1708 A1709 A1710 A1711 A1712 A1713 A1714 A1715 A1716 A1717 A1718 A1719 A1720 A18 A19 A20 A7101 A7102 A7104 A7105 A7106 A7108A A7108B A7114 A7115 A7201A A7201B A7202A A7202B A7203A A7203B A7204A A72048 A7205A A7205B A7206A A7206B A7207A A7207B A7208A A7208B A7209A A7209B A7210A A7210B A7211A A7211B A7212A A72128 A7213A A7213B A7214A A7214B A7215A A72158 A7216A A7216B A7217A A7217B A7218A A7218B A7219A A7219B A7220A A72208 BETA! 8ETA2 801 B02 B03 B04 B05 B06 808 B09 BlO Bll B12 B13 B14 B15 B16 B17 B18 B19 B20 B71 B72 COE01 COE02 COE03 CDE04 CDE05 COE06 CDE08 COE09 COE10 CDE11 CDE12 CDE13 CDE14 CDE15 CDE16 COE17 CDE18 CDE19 COE20 COE71 CDE72 OOLNTRBS DTGT02 DTGT03 DTGTOB OTGT10 OTGT11 001 D02 003 D05 006 008 009 010 011 012 D13 071 072 E01 E02 E03 E04 E05 E06 E08 E09 E10 Ell E12 E13 E14 E15 E16 E17 E18 E19 E20 E71 E72 HVDPOW INTEREST L LTSHR MSHARE01 MSHARE02 MSHARE03 MSHARE04 MSHAREOS MSHARE06 MSHARE08 MSHARE09 MSHARE10 MSHARE11 MSHARE12 MSHAREI3 MSHARE14 MSHAREIS MSHARE16 MSHARE17 MSHARE18 MSHARE19 MSHARE20 MSHARE71 MSHARE72 MU NGROW PHI04 PHI14 PHI15 PHI16 PHI17 PHI18 PHI19 PHI20 POPGROW QGROW01 QGROWOS QGROW06 QGROW07 RHOOI RH002 RH003 RH004 RHOOS RH006 RH007 RH008 RH009 RHOIO RHOII RH012 RH013 RH014 RH015 RH016 RH017 RH018 RH019 RH020 SMALLF SMALLG SMALLR TGROW WPINOX WPINDXOI WPINOX02 WPINOX03 WPINOX05 WPINDX06 WPINDXOB XSHAREOI XSHARE02 XSHARE03 XSHARE04 XSHARE05 XSHARE06 XSHAREOB XSHARE09 XSHARE10 XSHARE11 XSHARE12 XSHARE13 XSHARE14 XSHARE15 XSHARE16 XSHARE17 XSHARE18 XSHARE19 XSHARE20 XSHARE71 XSHARE72 XTGT09 XTGT12 XTGT13 XOIMAX ZETAOI ZETA02 ZETA04 ZETAOS ZETA06 ZETA07 ZETAOB ZETA09 ZETA10 ZETA11 ZETA12 ZETA13 ZETA14 ZETA15 ZETA16 ZETA17 COEFFICIENT: A1802 A1803 A1804 A1805 A1806 A1807 A1808 A1809 A1810 A1811 A1812 A1813 A1814 A1815 Al816 A1817 A1818 A1819 A1820 A1902 A1903 A1904 A1905 A1906 A1907 A1908 A1909 A1910 A1911 A1912 A1913 A1914 A1915 A1916 A1917 A1918 A1919 A1920 A2002 A2003 A2004 A2005 A2006 A2007 A2008 A2009 A2010 A2011 A2012 A2013 A2014 A2015 A2016 A2017 A2018 A2019 A2020 CALOS CAL06 CAL71 CFMOl CFM02 CFM03 CFM04 CFM05 CFM06 CFM08 CFM09 CFMIO CFM11 CFM12 CFM13 CFM14 CFM15 CFM16 CFM17 CFM18 CFM19 CFM20 CFM71 CFM72 CFX01 CFX02 CFX03 CFX04 CFX05 CFX06 CFXOB CFX09 CFX10 CFX11 CFX12 CFX13 CFX14 CFX15 CFX16 CFX17 CFX18 CFX19 CFX20 CFX71 CFX72 DAMP DAMP! DAMP2 DAMP3 DELTA01 DELTA02 DELTA03 DELTA04 OELTAOS OELTA06 DELTA07 DELTA08 DELTA09 OELTAIO DELTAll DELTAI2 DELTA13 DELTA14 DELTA15 DELTA16 OELTA17 OELTA18 OELTA19 OELTA20 EXCHBS KAPPA MILSHR09 MILSHRI4 SMALLS EQUATIONS PRODUCTION (IN SUPPLY-DRIVEN SECTORS : QS IN OTHER SECTORS IS DETERMINED BY DEMAND IN MATERIAL BALANCE EQUATIONS BELOW) : 1: OSOl ( 1+QGROW01 )*QSOl (-1) 2: QS02 K02(-1)/AK02+A02 3: OS03 K03(-1)/AK03+A03 4: osos (l+OGROWOS}*QSOS(-1} 5: OS06 (1+QGROW06)*0S06(-1} .J: QS07 (1+QGROW07)*0S07(-1} 1: QS71 = (1-LTSHR)*OS07 8: QS72 = LTSHR*QS07 9: QS08 = K08(-1)/AK08+A08 10: QS09 = K09(-1)/AK09+A09 II: QS10 K10(-1)/AK10+A10 12: QS11 Kl1 (-1 )/AK11+A11 13: QS12 = K12(-1)/AK12+A12 14: QS13 = K13(-1)/AK13+A13 EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION: 15: L02 AL02*QS02 16: L03 AL03*QS03 17: L04 AL04•QS04 18: LOS AL05*QS05 19: L06 = AL06*QS06 20: L07 = AL07*QS07 21: LOB ALOB*QSOB 22: L09 AL09*QS09 23: LIO ALIO*QS10 24: Lll = ALII*QSII 25: L12 AL12*QSI2 26: L13 AL13*QSI3 27: L14 AL14*QS14 0\ 0\ 28: LIS AL15•QSI5 I 29: Ll6 = AL16*QSI6 30: L17 = ALI7*QSI7 31: LIS ALIB*QSIS 32: Ll9 = AL19*QSI9 .33: L20 = AL20*QS20 34: LOI L-(L02+L03+L04+L05+L06+L07+L08+L09+L10+L11+L12+L13+Ll4+L15+L16+L17+L18+L19+L20) 35: POP (I+POPGROW)•POP(-1) 36: PAR L/POP PRICES (DETERMINATION OF PRICES, LABELLED Z IN PRICE UPDATING BLOCK, LAGGED ONE PERIOD TO REDUCE SIMULTANEIT\1): 37: POl = ZDI(-1) 38: P02 Z02(-1) 39: P03 Z03(-1) 40: P04 Z04(-1) 41: P05 = Z05(-l) 42: P06 Z06(-I) 43: P07 Z07(-1) 44: P71 P07 45: P72 P07 46: PO& = ZOB(-1) 47: P09 Z09(-1) 48: P10 Zl0(-1) 49: P11 Z11(-1) 50: P12 Z12(-1) 51: P13 Z13(-1) 52: P14 Z14(-1) 53: P15 = Z15(-1) 54: P16 Z16(-1) 55: P17 Z17(-1) 56: P18 Z18(-1) 57: P19 Z19(-1) 58: P20 Z20(-1) ~ ~ SECTORAL NET OUTPUT: 59: NQ01 = QS01*(P01-(A0101*P01+A0201*P02+A0301*P03+A0401*P04+A0501*P05+A0601*P06+A7101*P71+A7201*P72+A0801*P08+A0901*P09+ A1001*P10+A1101*P11+A1201*P12+A1301*P13+A1401*P14+A1501*P15+A1601*P16+A1701*P17+A1801*P18+A1901*P19+A2001*P20)) 60: NQ02 = QS02*(P02-(A0102*P01+A0202*P02+A0302*P03+A0402*P04+A0502*P05+A0602*P06+A7102*P71+A7202*P72+A0802*P08+A0902*P09+ A1002*P10+A1102*P11+A1202*P12+A1302*P13+A1402*P14+A1502*P15+A1602*P16+A1702*P17+A1802*P18+A1902*P19+A2002*P20)) 61: NQ03 = QS03*(P03-(A0103*P01+A0203*P02+A0303*P03+A0403*P04+A0503*P05+A0603*P06+A7103*P71+A7203*P72+A0803*P08+A0903*P09+ A1003*P10+A1103*P11+A1203*P12+A1303*P13+A1403*P14+A1503*P15+A1603*P16+A1703*P17+A1803*P18+A1903*P19+A2003*P20)) ' 62: NQ04 = QS04*(P04-(A0104*P01+A0204*P02+A0304*P03+A0404*P04+A0504*P05+A0604*P06+A7104*P71+A7204*P72+A0804*P08+A0904*P09+ A1004*P10+A1104*P11+A1204*P12+A1304*P13+A1404*P14+A1504*P15+A1604*P16+A1704*P17+A1804*P18+A1904*P19+A2004*P20)) ~3: NQ05 = QS05*(P05-(A0105*P01+A0205*P02+A0305*P03+A0405*P04+A0505*P05+A0605*P06+A7105*P71+A7205*P72+A0805*P08+A0905•P09+ A1005*P10+A1105*P11+A1205*P12+A1305*P13+A1405*P14+A1505*P15+AJ505*P16+A1705*P17+A1805*P18+A1905*P19+A2005*P20)) 64: NQ06 = QS06*(P06-(A0106*P01+A0206*P02+A0306*P03+A0406*P04+A0506*P05+A0606*P06+A7106*P71+A7206*P72+A0806*P08+A0906*P09+ A1006*P10+A1106*P11+A1206*P12+A1306*P13+A1406*P14+A1506*P15+A1606*P16+A1706*P17+A1806*P18+A1906*P19+A2006*P20)) 65: NQ07 = QS07*(P07-(A0107*P01+A0207*P02+A0307*P03+A0407*P04+A0507*P05+A0607*P06+A7107*P71+A7207*P72+A0807*P08+A0907*P09+ A1007*P10+A1107*P11+A1207*P12+A1307*P13+A1407*P14+A1507*P15+A1607*P16+A1707*P17+A1807*P18+A1907*P19+A2007*P20)) 66: NQ08 = QS08*(P08-(A0108*P01+A0208*P02+A0308*P03+A0408*P04+A0508*P05+A0608*P06+A7108•P71+A7208*P72+A0808•P08+A0908*P09+ A1008*P10+A1108*P11+A1208*P12+A1308*P13+A1408*P14+A1508*P15+A1608*P16+A1708*P17+A1808*P18+A1908*P19+A2008*P20)) 67: NQ09 = QS09*(P09-(A0109*P01+A0209*P02+A0309*P03+A0409*P04+A0509*P05+A0609*P06+A7109*P71+A7209•P72+A0809*P08+A0909*P09+ A1009*P10+A1109*P11+A1209*P12+A1309*P13+A1409*P14+A1509*P15+A1609*P16+A1709*P17+A1809*P18+A1909*P19+A2009*P20)) 68: NQ10 = QS10*(P10-(A0110*P01+A0210*P02+A0310*P03+A0410*P04+A0510*P05+A0610*P06+A7110*P71+A7210*P72+A0810*P08+A0910*P09+ A1010*P10+A1110*P11+A1210*P12+A1310*P13+A1410*P14+A1510*P15+A1610*P16+A1710*P17+A1810*P18+A1910*P19+A2010*P20)) 69: NQ11 = QS11*(P11-(A0111*P01+A0211*P02+A0311*P03+A0411*P04+A0511*P05+A0611*P06+A7111*P71+A7211*P72+A0811*P08+A0911*P09+ A1011*P10+A1111*P11+A1211*P12+A1311*P13+A1411*P14+A15i1*P15+A1611*P16+A1711*P17+A1811*P18+A1911*P19+A2011*P20)) 70: NQ12 = QS12•(P12-(A0112*P01+A0212*P02+A0312•P03+A0412•P04+A0512•P05+A0612•P06+A7112*P71+A7212•P72+A0812*P08+A0912•P09+ A1012*P10+A1112*P11+A1212•P12+A1312*P13+A1412•P14+A1512•P15+A1612•P16+A1712•P17+A1812•P18+A1912•P19+A2012•P20)) 71; NQ13 = QS13•(P13-(A0113*P01+A0213*P02+A0313•P03+A0413*P04+A0513*P05+A0613•P06+A7113•P71+A7213*P72+A0813•P08+A0913•P09+ A1013•P10+A1113•P11+A1213•P12+A1313•P13+A1413•P14+A1513•P15+A1613*P16+A.1713•P17+A1813•P18+A1913*P19+A2013*P20)) 72: NQ14 = QS14•(P14-(A0114•P01+A0214*P02+A0314*P03+A0414*P04+A0514*P05+A0614*P06+A7114•P71+A7214*P72+A0814*P08+A0914*P09+ A1014•P10+A1114•P11+A1214•P12+A1314*P13+A1414*P14+A1514*P15+A1614*P16+A1714*P17+A1814*P18+A1914*P19+A2014*P20)) 73: NQ15 = QS15*(P15-(A0115*P01+A0215*P02+A0315*P03+A0415*P04+A0515*P05+A0615*P06+A7115*P71+A7215*P72+A0815*P08+A0915•P09+ A1015•P10+A1115*P11+A1215•P12+A1315*P13+A1415*P14+A1515*P15+A1615*P16+A1715•P17+A1815*P18+A1915*P19+A2015*P20)) 74: NQ16 = QS16*(P16-(A0116*P01+A0216*P02+A0316*P03+A0416*P04+A0516•P05+A0616*P06+A7116*P71+A7216*P72+A0816*P08+A0916•P09+ A1016*P10+A1116*P11+A1216*P12+A1316*P13+A1416*P14+A1516*P15+A1616*P16+A1716*P17+A1816*P18+A1916*P19+A2016*P20)) 75: NQ17 = QS17*(P17-(A0117*P01+A0217*P02+A0317•P03+A0417•P04+A0517•P05+A0617*P06+A7117*P71+A7217*P72+A0817*POB+A0917*P09+ A1017*P10+A1117*P11+A1217*P12+A1317*P13+A1417*P14+A1517*P15+A1617•P16+A1717*P17+A1817*P18+A1917*P19+A2017*P20)) 76: NQ18 = QS18*(P18-(A0118*P01+A0218*P02+A0318*P03+A0418*P04+A0518*P05+A0618•P06+A711B*P71+A7218*P72+A0818*P08+A0918*P09+ A101B•P10+A1118*P11+Al218•P12+A1318*P13+A1418*P14+A151B•P15+A1618*P16+A171B•P17+A1818•P18+A1918*P19+A2018*P20)) 77: NQ19 = QS19*(P19-(A0119•P01+A0219*P02+A0319*P03+A0419*P04+A0519*P05+A0619*P06+A7119*P7l+A7219*P72+A0819*P08+A0919*P09+ A1019•P10+A1119*P11+A1219•P12+A1319*P13+A1419*P14+A1519*P15+A1619*P19+A1719*P17+A1819*P18+A1919*P19+A2019*P20)) 78: NQ20 = QS20*(P20-(A0120*P01+A0220*P02+A0320*P03+A0420*P04+A0520*P05+A0620*P06+A7120*P71+A7220*P72+A0820*P08+A0920*~09+ A1020*PIO+A1120•P11+A1220•P12+A1320*P13+A1420*P14+A1520•P15+A1620•P20+A1720•P17+A1820•P18+A1920*P19+A2020•P20)) NATIONAL INCOME (NOMINAL AND REAL GOP}: 79: V = NQ01+NQ02+NQ03+NQ04+NQ05+NQ06+NQ07+NQ08+NQ09+NQ10+NQ11+NQ12+NQ13+NQ14+NQ15+NQ16+NQ17+hQ18+NQ19+NQ20-XLOSS-MLOSS - 80: XLOSS = P01•X01+P02*X02+P03*X03+P04*X04+P05•X05+P06*X06+P71*X71+P72*X72+POB*X08+P09•X09+P10*XIO+P11*X11+P12•X12+P13* X13+P14*X14+P15*X15+P16•X16+P17*X17+P18•X18+P19*X19+P20*X20-DOLX•EXCHR 81: MLOSS = -(P01•M01+P02*M02+P03•M03+P04•M04+P05*M05+P06•M06+P71•M71+P72*M72+P08•M08+P09•M09+P10*M10+P11•M11+P12•M12+P13• M13+P14•M14+P15•M15+P16•M16+P17•M17+P18•M18+P19•M19+P20*M20)+00LM•EXCHR 82: GOP = (COI+G01+I001)/P01+X01-M01+(C02+G02+I002)/P02+X02-M02+(C03+G03+I003)/P03+X03-M03+(C04+G04+I004)/P04+X04-M04+(C05 +G05+I005)/P05+X05-M05+(C06+G06+I006)/P06+X06-M06+(C71+G71+I071)/P71+X71-M71+(C72+G72+I072)/P72+X72-M72+(C08+G08+I008) /P08+X08-M08+(C09+G09+I009)/P09+X09-M09+(C10+GIO+I010)/P10+X10-M10+(C11+G11+I011)/P11+X11-M11+(C12+G12+I012)/P12+X12- M12+(C13+G13+I013)/P13+X13-M13+(C14+G14+I014)/P14+X14-M14+(C15+G15+I015)/P15+X15-M15+(C16+G16+I016)/P16+X16-M16+(C17+ G17+I017)/P17+X17-M17+(C18+G18+I018)/P18+X18-M18+(C19+G19+I019)/P19+X19-M19+(C20+G20+I020)/P20+X20-M20 83: PBAR = V/GOP 84: GDPPERCA = GOP/POP•1000 USES OF NATIONAL INCOME: 85: so Mu•v 86: GN SMALLG•{V-SO) 87: CN V-SO-GN 88: IN SD+SF+NTR-OS 89: INVRATE = IN/V 90: SF = OOLSF*EXCHR 91: NTR = OOLNTR•EXCHR 92: DS = DOLDS•EXCHR DISTRIBUTION OF NATIONAL INCOME: 93: PROF = SD+GN-SMALLS•VH-OEPR18-0EPR19+XLOSS+MLOSS 94: WB CN/(1-SMALLS)-RENT 95: VH WB+RENT 96: W01 ALPHA01*W03 97: W02 ALPHA02*W03 98: W04 ALPHA04*W03 99: W05 ALPHA05*W03 100: W06 ALPHA06*W03 101: W07 ALPHA07*W03 102: W08 ALPHA08*W03 103: W09 ALPHA09*W03 104: W10 ALPHA10*W03 105: W11 ALPHA 11*W03 106: W12 ALPHA12*W03 107: W13 ALPHA13*W03 108: W14 ALPHA14*W03 , I 109: W15 ALPHA15*W03 0\ 110: W16 ALPHA16*W03 \0 111: W17 ALPHA17*W03 112: W18 ALPHA18*W03 113: W19 ALPHA19*W03 114: W20 ALPHA20*W03 115: WB01 W01*L01 116: WB02 W02*L02 117: WB03 W03*L03 118: WB04 W04*L04 119: WB05 wo5•Lo5 120: WB06 W06*L06 z~ 121: WB07 W07*L07 ID ID 122: WB08 W08*L08 ::1 123: WB09 W09*L09 0 -....IQ. .... ~ 124: WB10 W10*L10 '"" = N ....... 125: WB11 W11*L11 126: WB12 W12*L12 127: WB13 W13"'L13 128: WB14 = W14*L14 129: WB15 W15*L15 130t Wl!l16 W16*L16 131: WB17 = W17*L17 132: Wl!l18 "' W18*L18 133: WB19 = W19*L19 134: WB20 W20*L20 135: Wl!l = W801+WB02+WI!I03+WB04+WI!I05+WI!I06+WB07+WI!I08+WB09+WBIO+WI!I11+WB12+WI!I13+WB14+WB15+W816+WB17+WB18+WB19+WB20 136: WBAR WB/L 137: PROFOl :: NQ01-W1!101 138: PROF02 = NQ02-W802 139: PROF03 = NQ03-WI!I03 140: PROF04 = NQ04-WB04 141 : PROF05 NQ05-WI!I05 142: PROF06 NQ06-W806 143: PROF07 NQ07-WB07 " 0 144: PROF OS NQ08-WB08 145: PROF09 :: NQ09-W809 146: PROF10 :: NQ10-WI!I10 147: PROF 11 NQ11-WB11 148: PROF12 = NQ12-WB12 149: PROF13 = NQ13-WI!Il3 150: PROF14 = NQ14-WB14 151: PROF15 NQ15-WB15 152: PROF16 NQ16-W816 153: PROF17 = NQ17-WB17 154: OEPR18 = NQ18-WB18 155: OEPR19 = NQI9-WB19 156: RENT = NQ20-W820 157:' PAI03 = PROF03/(K03(-l)*PK) 158: PAlBAR = PROF/((K(-1)-K18(-1)-K19(-l)-K20(-1))*PK) PUBLIC AND HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION COMPOSITION: 159: GOt E01*GN 160: GOZ = E02*GN 16!: G03 • E03*GN 162: G04 E04*GN 163: G05 E05*GN 164: G06 E06*GN 165: G71 • E71*GN 166: G72 = E72*GN 167: G08 ; E08*GN 168: G09 = E09*GN 169: G10 = EIO*GN 170: Gil = E11*GN 171 : G12 = EI2*GN 172: GIS E13*GN 173: G14 EI4*GN 174: G15 = Et5*GN 175: GIS = E16*GN ...... 176: G17 = E17*GN ..... 177: G18 a EtS*GN 178: G19 • E19*GH 179: G20 E20*GN 180: CPI • CN(-1)/(C01(-1)/P01+C02(-1)/P02+C03(-1)/P03+C04(-1)/P04+C05(-1)/P05+G06(-1)/P06+C71(-1)/P71+C72(-1)/P72+C08(-I)/ P08+C09(-1)/P09+CI0(-1)/PIO+CII(-1)/P11+C12(-1)/P12+C13(-1)/P13+C14(-1)/P14+C15(-1)/P15+C16(-1)/P16+C17(-1)/PI7+C18(-I )/P18+C19(-1)/P19+C20(-I)/P20) 181: REALPCC • CN/POP/CPI*1000 ••••••• NEXT TWENTY EQUATIONS DETERMINE INCREMENTAL CLAIMS: 182: CCLAIM01 • C01(-1)*(P01/P01(-I)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDEOI*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-I))-1) 183: CCLAIM02 = C02(-1)*(P02/P02(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE02*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) 184: CCLAIM03 C03(-1)*(P03/P03(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE03*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) l~ 185: CCLAIM04 = C04(-1)*(P04/P04(-I)*(POP/POP(-I))*(I+CDE04*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-I))-I) 186: 187: CCLAIM05 = C05(-1)*(P05/P05(-I)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE05*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1)' CCLAIM06 = C06(-1)*(P06/P06(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE06*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) ·.,.. Ill Ill \0= 0 .. I-to ~ >< tl:l 188: CCLAIM71 C71(-1)*(P71/P71(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE71*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) N ...... 189: CCLAIM72 C72(-1)*(P72/P72(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE72*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) 190: CCLAIM08 C08(-1)*(P08/P08(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE08*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) 191: CCLAIM09 C09(-1)*(P09/P09(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE09*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) 192: CCLAIM10 C10(-1)*(P10/P10(-l)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE10*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) 193: CCLAIM11 • C11(-1)*(P11/P11(-1)*(POP/POP(-1})*(1+CDE11*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) 194: CCLAIM12 = C12(-1)*(P12/P12(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE12*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) 195: CCLAIM13 = C13(-1)*(P13/P13(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE13*(AEALPCC/AEALPCC(-1)-1))-1) 196: CCLAIM14 = C14(-l)*(P14/P14(-l)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE14*(AEALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) 197: CCLAIM15 = C15(~1)*(P15/P15(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE15*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-l))-1) 198: CCLAIM16 = C16(-1)*(P16/P16(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE16*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) 199: CCLAIM17 = C17(-1)*(P17/P17(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE17*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-l))-1) 200: CCLAIM18 = C18(-1)*(P18/P18(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE18*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) 201: CCLAIM19 C19(-1)*(P19/P19(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+CDE19*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-1)-1))-1) 202: CCLAIM20 = C20(-1)*(P20/P20(-1)*(POP/POP(-1))*(1+COE20*(REALPCC/REALPCC(-I)-1))-1) ••••... NEXT TWENTY ONE EQUATIONS RECONCILE SECTORAL CLAIMS WITH CN AND DETERMINE SECTORAL CONSUMPTION: 203: CCLAIM = CCLAIM01+CCLAIM02+CCLAI~03+CCLAIM04+CCLAIM05+CCLAIM06+CCLAIM71+CCLAIM72+CCLAIM08+CCLAIM09+CCLAIM10+CCLAIM11+ CCLAIM12+CCLAIM13+CCLAIM14+CCLAIM15+CCLAIM16+CCLAIM17+CCLAIM18+CCLAIM19+CCLAIM20 204: COl C01(-l)+CCLAIM01/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 205: C02 C02(-l)+CCLAIM02/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 206: C03 C03(-l)+CCLAIM03/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 207: C04 = C04(-1)+CCLAIM04/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 208: C05 = C05(-1)+CCLA1M05/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 209: C06 C06(-1)+CCLAIM06/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 210: C71 C71(-1)+CCLAIM71/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 211: C72 = C72(-1)+CCLAIM72/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 212: COB C08(-1)+CCLAIM08/CCLA1M*(CN-CN(-1)) 213: C09 C09(-1)+CCLAIM09/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 214: C10 C10(-1)+CCLAIM10/CCLA1M*(CN-CN(-1)) 215: C11 C11(-l)+CCLAIM11/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 216: C12 = C12(-1)+CCLAIM12/CCLA1M*(CN-CN(-1)) 217: C13 C13(-1)+CCLAIM13/CCLA1M*(CN-CN(-1)) 218: C14 C14(-l)+CCLAIM14/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 219: C15 C15(-1)+CCLAIM15/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 220: C16 C16(-1)+CCLAIM16/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 221: C17 C17(-l)+CCLAIM17/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 222: C18 = C18(-1)+CCLAIM18/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 223: C19 C19(-1)+CCLAIM19/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) 224: C20 C20(-1)+CCLAIM20/CCLAIM*(CN-CN(-1)) ALLOCATION OF INVESTMENT BV SECTOR OF ORIGIN: 225: SK SKSHR*IN 226: FI IN-SK ....... SKOISCR EXPLAINED BELOW: 227: SKSHR (SK(-l)+SKDISCR(-1))/IN(-1) 228: SKOOl =IF XOl LE XOlMAX THEN D01*0.75*(QS01-QS01(-1))*P01 ELSE P01*(QS01+M01-X01MAX-DD01+SK001/P01) .....•. ONE-PERIOO LAGS ON QS REDUCE SIMULTANEITY: 229: QSMAT QS02(-1)+QS03(-1)+QS05(-1)+QS06(-1)+QS07(-1)+QS08(-1)+QS09(-1)+QS10(-1)+QS11(-1)+QS12(-1)+QS13(-1) 230: PHI02 002*QS02(-1)/QSMAT 231: PHI03 003*QS03(-1)/QSMAT 232: PHI05 005*QS05(-1)/QSMAT 233: PHI06 D06*QS06(-1)/QSMAT 234: PHI71 071*QS71(-1)/QSMAT 235: PHI72 072*QS72(-1)/QSMAT 236: PHI08 008*QS08(-1)/QSMAT 237: PHI09 D09*QS09(-1)/QSMAT 238: PHilO DlO*QSl0(-1)/QSMAT 239: PHI 11 Dll*QSll(-1)/QSMAT 240: PHI 12 D12*QS12(-1)/QSMAT 241: PHI13 013*QS13(-1)/QSMAT 242: IOOl SKOOl+BOl*FI 243: I002 PHI02*(SK-SK001)+B02*FI 244: I003 PHI03*(SK-SK001)+B03*FI 245: I004 PHI04*(SK-SK001)+B04*FI 246: I005 PHI05*(SK-SK001)+B05*FI 247: I006 PHI06*(SK-SK001)+B06*F1 248: I071 PHI71*(SK-SK001)+B71*FI 249: I072 PHI72*(SK-SK001)+B72*FI 250: I008 PHI08*(SK-SK001)+B08*FI 251: I009 PHI09*(SK-SK001)+B09*FI 252: I010 PHI10*(SK-SK001)+B10*FI 253: I011 PHI11*(SK-SK001)+B11*FI 254: 1012 PH112*(SK-SK001)+B12*F1 255: 1013 PHI13*(SK-SK001)+B13*F1 256: 1014 PHI14*(SK-SK001)+B14*F1 257: 1015 PHI15*(SK-SK001)+B15*F1 258: 1016 PHI16*(SK-SK001)+B16*FI 259: 1017 PH117*(SK-SK001)+B17*FI 260: 1018 PHI18*(SK-SK001)+B18*FI 261: 1019 = PH119*(SK-SK001)+B19*FI 262: 1020 = PH120*(SK-SK001)+B20*FI 0 0 ME S T I C 0 E MA N 0 FOR P R 0 0 U C T S OF EACH S E C T 0 R : 263: Q001 = A0101*QS01+A0102*QS02+A0103*QS03+A0104*QS04+A0105*QS05+A0106*QS06+A0107*QS07+A0108*QS08+A0109*QS09+A0110*QS10+ A0111*QS11+A0112*QS12+A0113*QS13+A0114*QS14+A0115*QS15+A0116*QS16+A0117*QS17+A0118*QS18+A0119*QS19+A0120*QS20+(C01+G01 +1001)/P01 264: 0002 = A0201*QS01+A0202*QS02+A0203*QS03+A0204*QS04+A0205*QSOS+A0206*QS06+A0207*QS07+A0208*QS08+A0209*QS09+A0210*QS10+ A0211*QS11+A0212*QS12+A0213*QS13+A0214*QS14+A0215*QS15+A0216*QS16+A0217*QS17+A0218*QS18+A0219*QS19+A0220*QS20+(C02+G02 +1002)/P02 265: 0003 = A0301*QS01+A0302*QS02+A0303*QS03+A0304*QS04+A0305*QSOS+A0306*QS06+A0307*QS07+A0308*QS08+A0309*QS09+A0310*QS10+ A0311*QS11+A0312*QS12+A0313*QS13+A0314*QS14+A0315*QS15+A0316*QS16+A0317*QS17+A0318*QS18+A0319*QS19+A0320*QS20+(C03+G03 +1003)/P03 266: 0004 = A0401*QS01+A0402*QS02+A0403*QS03+A0404*QS04+A0405*QSOS+A0406*QS06+A0407*QS07+A0408*QS08+A0409*QS09+A0410*QS10+ A0411*QS11+A0412*QS12+A0413*QS13+A0414*QS14+A0415*QS15+A0416*QS16+A0417*QS17+A0418*QS18+A0419*QS19+A0420*QS20+(C04+G04 +1004)/P04 267: 0005 = A0501*QS01+A0502*QS02+A0503*QS03+A0504*QS04+A0505*QSOS+A0506*QS06+A0507*QS07+A0508*QS08+A0509*QS09+A0510*QS10+ A0511*QS11+A0512*QS12+A0513*QS13+A0514*QS14+A0515*QS15+A0516*QS16+A0517*QS17+A0518*QS18+A0519*QS19+A0520*QS20+(COS+G05 +1005)/POS 268: 0006 = A0601*QS01+A0602*QS02+A0603*QS03+A0604*QS04+A0605*QS05+A0606*QS06+A0607*QS07+A0608*QSOB+A0609*QS09+A0610*QS10+ A0611*QS11+A0612*QS12+A0613*QS13+A0614*QS14+A0615*QS15+A0616*QS16+A0617*QS17+A0618*QS18+A0619*QS19+A0620*QS20+(C06+G06 +I006)/P06 269: 0071 = A7101*QS01+A7102*QS02+A7103*QS03+A7104*QS04+A7105*QSOS+A7106*QS06+A7107*QS07+A7108*QSOB+A7109*QS09+A7110*QS10+ A7111*QS11+A7112*QS12+A7113*QS13+A7114*QS14+A7115*QS15+A7116*QS16+A7117*QS17+A7118*QS18+A7119*QS19+A7120*QS20+(C71+G71 +I071)/P71 270: 0072 = A7201*QS01+A7202*QS02+A7203*QS03+A7204*QS04+A720S*QS05+A7206*QS06+A7207*QS07+A7208*QS08+A7209*QS09+A7210*QS10+ A7211*QS11+A7212*QS12+A7213*QS13+A7214*QS14+A7215*QS15+A7216•QS16+A7217*QS17+A7218*QS18+A7219*QS19+A7220*QS20+(C72+G72 +1072)/P72 271: 0008 = A0801*QS01+A0802*QS02+A0803*QS03+A0804*QS04+A0805*QS05+A0806*QS06+A0807*QS07+A0808*QS08+A0809*QS09+A0810*QS10+ A0811*QS11+A0812*QS12+A0813*QS13+A0814*QS14+A0815*QS15+A0816*QS16+A0817*QS17+A0818*QS18+A0819*QS19+A0820*QS20+(C08+G08 +1008)/POS ::~ 272: 0009 = A0901*QS01+A0902*QS02+A0903*QS03+A0904*QS04+A0905*QS05+A0906*QS06+A0907*QS07+A0908*QS08+A0909*QS09+A0910*QS10+ m m A0911*QS11+A0912*QS12+A0913*QSI3+A0914*QS14+A0915*QS15+A0916*QSI6+A0917*QS17+A0918*QSI8+A0919*QS19+A0920*QS20+(C09+G09 . - [ +I009)/P09 . N ~ 273: 0010 = A1001*QS01+AI002*QS02+A1003*QS03+A1004*QS04+A1005*QS05+A1006*QS06+A1007*QS07+A1008*QS08+A1009*QS09+A1010*QS10+ ~ ~ A1011*QS11+A1012*QS12+A1013*QS13+A1014*QS14+A1015*QS15+A1016*QS16+A1017*QS17+A1018*QS18+A1019*QS19+A1020*QS20+(C10+G10 N +1010)/PIO ~ 274: 0011 = A1101*QS01+A1102*QS02+A1103*QS03+A1104*QS04+A1105*QSOS+A1106*QS06+A1107*QS07+A1108*QS08+A1109*QS09+A1110*QS10+ A1111*QS11+A1112*QS12+A1113*QS13+A1114*QS14+A1115*QS15+A1116*QS16+Al117*QS17+A1118*QS18+A1119*QS19+A1120*QS20+(C11+G11  +I011)/P11 275: 0012 = A1201*QS01+A1202*QS02+A1203*QS03+A1204*QS04+A1205*QS05+A1206*QS06+A1207•QS07+A1208*QSOB+A1209*QS09+A1210*QS10+ A1211*QS11+A1212*QS12+A1213*QS13+A1214*QS14+A1215*QS15+A1216*QS16+A1217*QS17+A1218*QS18+A1219*QS19+A1220*QS20+(C12+G12 +!012)/P12 276: 0013 = A1301*QSOI+A1302*QS02+A1303*QS03+A1304*QS04+A1305*QS05+A1306*QS06+AI307*QS07+A130B*QS08+A1309*QS09+A1310*QS10+ A1311*QSII+A1312*QS12+A1313*QS13+AI314*QS14+A1315*QS15+A1316*QS16+AI317*QS17+AI318*QS18+AI319*QS19+A1320*QS20+(C13+G13 +I013)/P13 277: 0014 = A1401*QS01+A1402*QS02+A1403*QS03+A1404*QS04+A1405*QSD5+A1406*QS06+A1407*QS07+A1408*QSOB+A1409*QS09+A1410*QS10+ A1411*QS11+A1412*QS12+A1413*QS13+A1414*QS14+A1415*QS15+A1416*QS16+A1417*QS17+A141B*QS18+A1419*QS19+A1420*QS20+(C14+G14 +I014)/P14 278: 0015 = A1501*QS01+A1502*QS02+A1503*QS03+A1504*QS04+A1505*QS05+A1506*QS06+A1507*QS07+A150B*QSOB+A1509*QS09+A1510*QS10+ A'1511*QS11+A1512*QS12+A1513*QS13+A1514*QS14+A1515*QS15+A1516*QS16+A1517*QS17+A151B*QS18+A1519*QS19+A1520*QS20+{C15+G15 +I015)/P15 279: 0016 = A1601*QSOI+A1602*QS02+A1603*QS03+A1604*QS04+A1605*QS05+A1606*QS06+A1607*QS07+A1608*QSOB+A1609*QS09+A1610*QS10+ A1611*QS11+A1612*QS12+A1613*QS13+A1614*QS14+A1615*QS15+A1616*QS16+A1617*QS17+A1618*QS18+A1619*QS19+A1620*QS20+(C16+G16 ·+I016)/P16 280: 0017 = A1701*QS01+A1702*QS02+A1703*QS03+A1704*QS04+A1705*QS05+A1706*QS06+A1707*QSD7+A1708*QSOB+A1709*QS09+A1710*QS10+ A1711*QS11+A1712*QS12+A1713*QS13+A1714*QS14+A1715*QS15+A1716*QS16+A1717*QS17+A1718*QS18+A1719*QS19+A1720*QS20+(C17+G17 +I017)/P17 281: 0018 = A1801*QS01+A1802*QS02+A1803*QS03+A1804*QS04+A1805*QS05+A1806*QS06+A1807*QS07+A1808•QS08+A1809*QS09+A1810*QS10+ A1811*QS11+A1812*QS12+A1813*QS13+A1814*QS14+A1815*QS15+A1816*QS16+A1817*QS17+A181B*QS18+A1819*QS19+A1820*QS20+(C18+G18 +I018)/P18 282: 0019 = A1901*QS01+A1902*QS02+A1903*QS03+A1904*QS04+A1905*QS05+A1906*QS06+A1907*QS07+A1908*QS08+A1909*QS09+A1910*QS10+ A1911*QS11+A1912*QS12+A1913*QS13+A1914*QS14+A1915*QS15+A1916*QS16+A1917*QS17+A191B*QS18+A1919*QS19+A1920*QS20+(C19+G19 +I019)/P19 283: 0020 = A2001*QSD1+A2002*QS02+A2003*QS03+A2004*QS04+A2005*QS05+A2006•QS06+A2007*QS07+A2008*QS08+A2009*QS09+A2010*QS10+ A2011*QS11+A2012*QS12+A2013*QS13+A2014*QS14+A2015*QS15+A2016*QS16+A2017*QS17+A2018*QS18+A2019*QS19+A2020*QS20+(C20+G20 +I020)/P20 MA T E R I A L B A L A N C E ( 0 E T E R M I N E s T R A 0 E B A L A N C E I N s u p p L y - 0 R I v E N S E C T 0 R S , P R 0 0 U C T I 0 N I N D E M A N D -0 R I V E N S E C T 0 R S ): 284:. QS01 0001+X01-M01 "' 285: QS02 = D002+X02-MD2 286: QS03 D003+X03-M03 287: Q$04 = 0004+X04-M04 288: QS05 0005+X05-M05 289: QS06 D006+X06-M06 i~ 290: QS71 D071+X71-M71 291: Q$72 = DD72+X72-M72 II) II) 292: QS08 = 0008+X08-M08 ..... w [ .... 0 )< 293: QS09 D009+X09-M09 """' N 294: QSIO = D010+X10-M10 -...J 295: QS11 = 0011+X11-M11  296: QS12 = D012+X12-M12 297: QS13 0013+X13-M13 298: QS14 0014+X14-M14 299: QS15 = 0015+X15-M15 300: QS16 = 0016+X16-M16 301: QS17 = 0017+X17-M17 302: QSIB 0018+XIB-M18 303: QS19 0019+X19-M19 304: QS20 0020+X20-M20 305: GVO = QS01+QS02+QS03+QS04+QS05+QS06+QS07+QS08+QS09+QS10+QS11+QS12+QS13+QS14+QS15+QS16+QS17+QS18+QS19+QS20 306: GVIAO = QS01+QS02+QS03+QS04+QS05+QS06+QS07+QS08+QS09+QS10+QS11+QS12+QS13 F 0 R E I G N T R A D E IN R E A L ( C 0 N S T A N T V U A N ) T E R M S : 307: M04 MSHARE04*0004 308: M71 MSHARE71*0071 309: M14 = MSHARE14*0014 310: M15 MSHARE15*(M01+M02+M03+M05+M06+M71+M72+M08+M09+M10+M11+M12+M13) 311 : M16 MSHARE16*(M01+M02+M03+M05+M06+M71+M72+M08+M09+M10+M11+M12+M13) ...... c;r. 312: M17 MSHARE17*0017 I 313: M18 = MSHARE18*0018 314: M19 MSHARE19*0D19 315: M20 MSHARE20*D020 316: M = M01+M02+M03+M04+M05+M06+M71+M72+M08+M09+M10+M11+M12+M13+M14+M15+M16+M17+M18+M19+M20 •••.••• NEXT 12 EQUATIONS KEEP EXPORTS AND IMPORTS ABOVE SPEC~FIEO MINIMA: 317: X01 = IF (1-XSHARE01)*QS01 GE (1-MSHAREOi)*OOOl THEN QS01-(1-MSHARE01)*0D01 ELSE XSHARE01*QS01 318: X02 = IF (1-XSHARE02)*QS02 GE .(1-MSHARE02)*0002 THEN QS02-(1-MSHARE02)*DD02 ELSE XSHARE02*QS02 319: X03 = IF (1-XSHARE03)*QS03 GE (1-MSHARE03)*0003 THEN QS03-(1-MSHARE03)*0D03 ELSE XSHARE03*QS03 320: xos IF (1-XSHARE05)*QS05 GE (1-MSHARE05)*0005 THEN QS05-(1-MSHARE05)*0005 ELSE XSHARE05*QS05 . 321: X06 IF (1-XSHARE06)*QS06 GE (1-MSHARE06)*0D06 THEN QS06-(1-MSHARE06)*DD06 ELSE XSHARE06*QS06 l~ 322: X72 IF (1-XSHARE72)•QS72 GE (1-MSHARE72)*0072 THEN QS72-(1-MSHARE72)*DD72 ELSE XSHARE72*QS72 Ill Ill 323: xo8 = IF (T-XSHARE08)*QS08 GE (1-MSHARE08)*DD08 THEN QS08-(1-MSHARE08)*DD08 ELSE XSHARE08*QS08 .... Q. ::s """ .... a.~ 324: X09 IF (1-XSHARE09)*QS09 GE (1-MSHARE09)*0009 THEN QS09-(1-MSHARE09)*DD09 ELSE XSHARE09*QS09 325: X10 IF (1-XSHARE10)•QS10 GE (1-MSHARE10)*0010 THEN QS10-(1-MSHARE10)*0010 ELSE XSHARElO*QSlO N ...... 326: X 11 IF (1-XSHARE11)*QS11 GE (1-MSHARE11)*0011 THEN QS11-(1-MSHARE11)*0011 ELSE XSHARE 11*QS 11 327: X12 IF (1-XSHARE12)*QS12 GE (1-MSHARE12)*0012 THEN QS12-(1-MSHARE12)*D012 ELSE XSHARE12*QS12 328: X13 IF (1-XSHARE13)*QS13 GE (1-MSHARE13)*DD13 THEN QS13-(1-MSHARE13)*DD13 ELSE XSHARE13*QS13 329: X04 XSHARE04*QS04 330: X71 = XSHARE71*QS71 331: X14 XSHARE14*QS14 332: X15 XSHARE15*(X01+X02+X03+X05+X06+X71+X72+X08+X09+X10+X11+X12+X13) 333: X16 XSHARE16*(X01+X02+X03+X05+X06+X71+X72+X08+X09+X10+X11+X12+X13) 334: X17 = XSHARE17*QS17 335: X18 XSHARE18*QS18 336: X19 XSHARE19*QS19 337: X20 XSHARE20*QS20 338: X= X01+X02+X03+X04+X05+X06+X71+X72+X08+X09+X10+X11+X12+X13+X14+X15+X16+X17+X18+X19+X20 F 0 R E I G N T R A D E A N D P A V ME N T S I N c u R R E N T D 0 L L A R S : 339: DOLXOl X01*WPINDX01*CFX01 340: OOLX02 = X02*WPINOX02*CFX02 341: OOLX03 = X03*WPINOX03*CFX03 342: OOLX04 X04*WPINDX*CFX04 343: OOLX05 X05*WPINOX05*CFX05 344: DOLX06 X06*WPINOX06*CFX06 345: OOLX71 X71*WPINDX06*CFX71 346: DOLX72 X72*WPINDX06*CFX72 347: DOLX08 X08*WPINOX08*CFX08 348: DOLX09 X09*WPINOX*CFX09 349: DOLX10 = X10*WPINOX*CFX10 350: DOLXll Xll*WPINDX*CFX11 351: DOLX12 X12*WPINDX*CFX12 352: DOLX13 X13*WPINOX*CFX13 "353: DOLX14 X14*WPINOX*CFX14 354: DOLX15 = X15*WPINDX*CFX15 355: OOLX16 = X16*WPINDX*CFX16 356: DOLX17 X17*WPINOX*CFX17 357: DOLX18 X18*WPINOX*CFX18 358: DOLX19 X19*WPINOX*CFX19 359: DOLX20 = X20*WPINDX*CFX20 360: DOLX = DOLX01+DOLX02+DOLX03+DOLX04+DOLX05+DOLX06+DOLX71+DOLX72+DOLX08+DOLX09+DOLX10+DOLX11+DOLX12+DOLX13+DOLX14+00LX15 +DOLX16+DOLX17+DOLX18+DOLX19+DOLX20 361: DOLMOl = M01*WPINDX01*CFM01 362: 00Uii02 = M02*WPINDX02*CFM02 363: DOLM03 M03*WPINDX03*CFM03 364: DOLM04 M04*WPINDX*CFM04 365: DOLM05 M05*WPINDX05*CFM05 366: DOLM06 = M06*WPINDX06*CFM06 367: DOLM71 = M71*WPINDX06*CFM71 368: DOLM72 = M72*WPINDX06*CFM72 369: DOLM08 M08*WPINDX08*CFM08 370: DOLM09 M09*WPINDX*CFM09 371: DOLM10 M10*WPINDX*CFM10 372: DOLM11 M11*WPINDX*CFM11 373: DOLM12 M12*WPINDX*CFM12 374: DOLM13 M13*WPINDX*CFM13 375: DOLM14 M14*WPINDX*CFM14 .... 00 376: DOLM15 M15*WPINDX*CFM15 377: DOLM16 M16*WPINDX*CFM16 378: DOLM17 M17*WPINDX*CFM17 379: DOLM18 M18*WPINDX*CFM18 380: DOLM19 = M19*WPINDX*CFM19 381: DOLM20 = M20*WPINDX*CFM20 382: DOLM = DOLM01+DOLM02+DOLM03+DOLM04+DOLM05+DOLM06+DOLM71+DOLM72+DOLM08+DOLM09+00LM10+00LM11+00LM12+DOLM13+00LM14+00LM15 +DOLM16+00LM17+00LM18+00LM19+DOLM20 ..•...• DAMP IS INSERTED TO AVOID OSCILLATIONS: 383: OOLSF = (SMALLF*DOLX(-1)-DOLDEBT(-1))*DAMP2 384: OOLDEBT = DOLDEBT(-1)+DOLM-DOLX+DOLOS-DOLNTR 385: DOLDS = INTEREST*DOLDEBT(-1) 386: DOLNTR = OOLNTRBS*WPINDX •.••••. PBAR IS LAGGED TO REDUCE SIMULTANEITY: 387: EXCHR = EXCHBS*PBAR(-1)/WPINDX SUPPLEMENTARY ENERGY-RELATED EQUATIONS (FIRST THIRTY DETERMINE A05I AND A71I): 388: AFUEL01 CAL05*A0501+CAL06*A0601+CAL71*A7101 389: AFUEL02 = CAL05*A0502+CAL06*A0602+CAL71*A7102 390: AFUEL03 = CAL05*A0503+CAL06*A0603+CAL71*A7103 391: AFUEL04 (CAL05*A0504+CAL06*A0604+CAL71*A7104)/(1-HYDSHR) 392: AFUELOS CAL05*A0505+CAL06*A0605+CAL71*A7105 393: AFUEL06 CAL05*A0506+CAL06*A0606+CAL71*A7106 394: AFUEL07 = CAL71*A7107 395: AFUEL08 CAL05*A0508+CAL06*A0608A+CAL71*A7108A 396: AFUEL09 CAL05*A0509+CAL06*A0609+CAL71*A7109 397: AFUEL10 CAL05*A0510+CAL06*A0610+CAL71*A7110 398: AFUEL11 CAL05*A0511+CAL06*A0611+CAL71*A7111 399: AFUEL12 CAL05*A0512+CAL06*A0612+CAL71*A7112 400: AFUEL13 = CAL05*A0513+CAL06*A0613+CAL71*A7113 401: AFUEL14 CAL05*A0514+CAL06*A0614+CAL71*A7114 402: AFUEL15 = CAL05*A0515+CAL06*A0615+CAL71*A7115 403: AFUEL16 CAL05*A0516+CAL06*A0616+CAL71*A7116 404: AFUEL17 CAL05*A0517+CAL06*A0617+CAL71*A7117 405: AFUEL18 CAL05*A0518+CAL06*A0618+CAL71*A7118 406: AFUEL19 CAL05*A0519+CAL06*A0619+CAL71*A7119 407: AFUEL20 = CAL05*A0520+CAL06•A0620+CAL71*A7120 408: A7109 A0509*A7103/A0503 409: A7110 = A0510*A7103/A0503 410: A7111 = A0511*A7103/A0503 411: A7112 A0512*A7103/A0503 412: A7113 A0513*A7103/A0503 413: A7116 A0516*A7103/A0503 414: A7117 A0517*A7103/A0503 415: A7118 = A0518*A7103/A0503 416: A7119 A0519•A7103/A0503 417: A7120 = A0520*A7103/A0503 ....... NEXT TWENTY EQUATIONS DISTINGUISH TRUCKS FROM OTHER DISTILLATE USE: 418: A7201 =A7201A+A7201B 419: A7202 = A7202A+A7202B 420: A7203 A7203A+A7203B 421: A7204 = A7204A+A7204B 422: A7205 A7205A+A7205B 423: A7206 "' A7206A+A7206B 424: A7207 = A7207A+A7207B 425: A7208 A7208A+A7208B 426: A7209 "' A7209A+A72098 427: A7210 A7210A+A7210B 428: A7211 A7211A+A7211B 429: A7212 = A7212A+A7212B 430: A7213 A7213A+A7213B 431' A7214 = A7214A+A7214B 432: A7215 A?215A+A7215B 433: A7216 = A7216A+A7216B 434: A7217 = A7217A+A7217B 435: A7218 A7218A+A7218B 436: A7219 A7219A+A7219B 437: A7220 = A7220A+A72208 ......• NEXT TWO EQUATIONS DISTINGUISH FUEL FROM FEEDSTOCK IN CHEMICALS: 438: A06D8 A0608A+A0608B ()I) 439: A7108 = A7108A+A7108B 0 ....... NEXT TWO EQUATIONS DETERMINE ELECTRICITY CAPITAL-OUTPUT RATIO: 440: HVDSHR = HVDPOW/QS04 441: AK04 AK4A*HVDSHR+AK48*(1-HVDSHR) s u p P L E ME N T A R V C R 0 P P R0 D UC T I 0 N E Q u A T I 0 N S : 442: T (l+TGROW)*T(-1) 443: N = (1+NGROW)*N(-1) ..••••• EQUATION SUBTRACTS PREDETERMINED INTERMEDIATE INPUTS: 444: NAOJ = N-(A0101+A0201+A0401+A0501+A0601+A7101+A7201)*QS01 ......• NEXT FOURTEEN EQUATIONS SPLIT OTHER INTERMEDIATE INPUTS IN FIXED PROPORTIONS: 445: A0301 = AGINT03*NADJ/QS01 446: A0801 AGINT08*NADJ/QS01 447: A0901 = AGINT09*NADJ/QS01 448: A1001 AGINT10*NADJ/QS01 449: A1101 = AGINT11*NADJ/QS01 450: A1201 AGINT12*NADJ/QS01 451' A1301 = AGINT13*NAOJ/QS01 452: A1401 = AGINT14*NADJ/QS01 453: A1501 AGINT15*NADJ/QS01 454: A1601 AGINT16*NADJ/QS01 455: A1701 = AGINT17*NADJ/QS01 456: A1801 AGINT18*NADJ/QS01 457: A1901 AGINT19*NAOJ/QS01 458: A2001 AGINT20*NADJ/QS01 ALLOCATION OF INVESTMENT AMONG SECTORS OF DESTINATION: 459: ICLAIM01 = DELTA01*FK01(-1)+K01(-1)*(K01(-1)/K01(-2)-1)+((QSOl/(T*N**BETA2))**(1/BETA1)-K01(-1)) 460: ICLAIM04 = DELTA04*FK04(-1)+QS04*(QS04/QS04(-1)-1)*AK04*AK04/AK04(-1)+(QS04-A04)*AK04*(AK04/AK04(-1)-1)+DAMP*((QS04- A04)*AK04-K04(-1)) 461: ICLAIM05 = DELTA05*FK05(-1)+QS05*(QS05/QS05(-1)-1)*AK05*AK05/AK05(-1)+(QS05-A05)*AK05*(AK05/AKOS(-1)-1)+DAMP*((QS05- A05)*AKOS-K05(-1)) 462: ICLAIM06 = DELTA06*FK06(-1)+QS06*(QS06/QS06(-1)-1)*AK06*AK06/AK06(-1)+(QS06-A06)*AK06*(AK06/AK06(-1)-1)+0AMP*((QSO~­ A06)*AK06-K06(-1)) 463: ICLAIM07 = DELTA07*FK07(-1)+QS07*(QS07/QS07(-1)-1)*AK07*AK07/AK07(-1)+(QS07-A07)*AK07*(AK07/AK07(-1)-1)+DAMP*((QS07- A07)*AK07-K07(-1)) 464: ICLAIM14 = DELTA14*FK14(-1)+QS14*(QS14/QS14(-1) 1)*AK14*AK14/AK14(-1)+(QS14-A14)*AK14*(AK14/AK14(-1)-1)+DAMP*((QS14- A14)*AK14-K14(-1)) 465: ICLAIM15 = DELTA15*FK15(-1)+QS15*(QS15/QS15(-1)-1)*AK15*AKIS/AK15( 1)+(QS15-A15)*AK15*(AK15/AK15(-1)-1)+DAMP*((QS15- A15)*AK15-K15(-1)) 466: ICLAIM16 = DELTA16*FK16(-1)+QS16*(QS16/QS16(-1)-I)*AK16*AK16/AK16(-I)+(QS16-A16)•AK16*(AK16/AK16(-1)-1)+DAMP*((QS16- A16)*AK16-K16(-1)) 467: ICLAIM17 = DELTA17*FK17(-I)+QS17*(QS17/QS17(-1)-1)*AKI7*AKI7/AK17(-l)+(QS17-Al7)*AK17*(AK17/AK17(-1)-1)+0AMP•((QS17- A17)*AK17-Kl7(-1)) 468: ICLAIM18 = DELTA18*FK18(-1)+QS18*(QS18/QS18(-1)-1)*AK18*AK18/AK18(-1)+(QS18-A18)*AK18*(AK18/AK18(-1)-I)+DAMP*((QSIQ- A18)*AK18-K18(-1)) 469: ICLAIM19 = DELTA19*FK19(-I)+QS19*(QS19/QS19(-1)-1)*AK19*AK19/AK19(-1)+(QS19-A19)*AK19*(AK19/AK19(-1)-I)+DAMP*((QS19- AI9)*AK19-K19(-1)) 470: ICLAIM20 = DELTA20*FK20(-1)+QS20*(QS20/QS20(-1)-I)*AK20*AK20/AK20(-I)+(QS20-A20)*AK20*(AK20/AK20(-1)-I)+OAMP*((QS20- A20)*AK20-K20(-1)) 471: ICLAIM02 =OELTA02*FK02( 1)+(1-DTGT02)*DD02*(DD02/DD02(-1)-I)*AK02*AK02/AK02(-1)+((1-DTGT02)*0D02-A02)*AK02*(AK02/AK02 (-1)-I)+OAMPI*((M02-X02-DTGT02*DD02)*AK02) 472: ICLAIM03 =DELTA03*FK03(-1)+(1-DTGT03)*DD03*(DD03/DD03(-1)-I)*AK03*AK03/AK03(-1)+((1-0TGT03)*DD03~A03)*AK03*(AK03/AK03 (-1)-l)+DAMP1*((M03-X03-DTGT03*DD03)*AK03) 473: ICLAIM08 = DELTA08*FK08(-1)+(1-DTGT08)*DD08*(DD08/D008(-l)-1)*AK08*AK08/AK08(-l)+((l-DTGTOB)*DD08-A08)*AK08*(AK08/AK08 (-1)-1)+0AMPI*((M08-X08-DTGT0g•oo08)*AK08) 474: ICLAIMIO = DELTA10*FK10(-1)+(1-0TGT10)*0010*(0010/DD10(-1)-1)*AK10*AKIO/AK10(-1)+((1-0TGT10)*DD10-A10)*AK10*(AK10/AK10 (-1)-I)+DAMPI*((M10-XIO-OTGT10*0010)*AK10) 475: ICLAIM11 =DELTAII*FK11(-1)+(1-DTGT11)*0011*(DD11/0011(-1)-1)*AKII*AKII/AK11(-1)+((1-0TGTI1)*DDII-Ali)*AK11*(AK11/AK11 (-1)-1)+0AMP1*((M11-X11-DTGTI1*0011)*AK11) 476: INEED09 = DELTA09*FK09(-1)+((1-MSHARE09)*0009*(DD09/0009(-1)-1)+XTGT09*XMFD*(XMFD/XMFD(-1)-1))*AK09*AK09/AK09(-1)+((1- MSHARE09)*0009+XTGT09*XMFD-A09)*AK09*(AK09/AK09(-1)-1)+0AMP3*((XTGT09*XMFO-X09+M09-MSHARE09*0009)*AK09) 477: INEED12 = DELTA12*FK12(-1)+({1-MSHARE12)*0D12*(0012/D012{-1)-1)+XTGT12*XMFD*(XMFD/XMF0(-1) 1))*AK12*AK12/AK12{-1)+{(1- MSHARE12)*0012+XTGT12*XMFO-A12)*AK12*(AK12/AK12(-1)-1)+DAMP3*((XTGT12*XMFO-X12+MI2-MSHARE12*D012)*AK12) 478: INEE013 = OELTA13*FK13(-1)+((1-MSHARE13)*0013*(0013/0D13(-1)-1)+XTGT13*XMFD*(XMFD/XMFD(-1)-1))*AK13*AK13/AK13(-1)+{{1- MSHARE13)*0013+XTGT·13*XMFD-A13)*AK13*(AK13/AK13(-1)-1)+DAMP3*({XTGT13*~FD-X13+M13-MSHARE13*0013)*AK13) 479: XMFO = X09+X11+X12+X13 ... · .... NEXT 5 EQUATIONS RECONCILE SECTORAL CLAIMS WITH IN: 480: IRESIO= IN-(ICLAIM01+ICLAIM02+ICLAIM03+ICLAIM04+ICLAIM05+ICLAIM06+ICLAIM07+ICLAIM08+ICLAIM10+ICLAIM11+ICLAIM14+ ICLAIM15+ICLAIM16+ICLAIM17+ICLAIM18+ICLAIM19+ICLAIM20) 481: INEEO = INEE009+INEE012+INEE013 482: ICLAIM09 = INEE009/INEEO*IRESIO 483: ICLAIM12 = INEE012/INEEO*IRESIO 484: ICLAIM13 INEE013/INEEO*IRESIO ....... NEXT 20 EQUATIONS DAMP INVESTMENT ALLOCATION: 485: ISHR01 KAPPA*(K01(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM01/IN) 486: I SHR02 KAPPA*(K02( 1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM02/IN) 487: ISHR03 KAPPA*(K03(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM03/IN) 488: ISHR04 = KAPPA*(K04(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM04/IN) 489: ISHR05 KAPPA*(K05(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM05/IN) 490: ISHR06 KAPPA*(K06(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM06/IN) 491: I SHR07 KAPPA*(K07(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM07/IN) 492: ISHR08 KAPPA*(K08(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM08/IN) 493: ISHR09 = KAPPA*(K09(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM09/IN) 494: I SHR 10 = KAPPA*(K10(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM10/IN) 495: ISHR11 = KAPPA*(K11( 1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIMII/IN) 496: ISHR12 KAPPA*(K12(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM12/IN) 497: ISHR 13 KAPPA*(K13(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM13/IN) 498: ISHR14 KAPPA*(K14(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM14/IN) 499: ISHR15 KAPPA*(K15(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM15/IN) 500: ISHR16 KAPPA*(K16( 1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM16/IN) 501: ISHR17 KAPPA*(K17(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*{ICLAIM17/IN) 502: ISHR18 KAPPA*(K18(-1)/K(-1))+{1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM18/IN) 503: ISHR19 KAPPA*(K19{-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM19/IN) 504: ISHR20 KAPPA*(K20(-1)/K(-1))+(1-KAPPA)*(ICLAIM20/IN) 505: IOI = ISHR01*IN 506: 102 = ISHR02*IN 507: I03 ISHR03*IN 508: I04 ISHR04*IN 509: I05 ISHR05*IN 510: I06 ISHR06*IN 511: I07 ISHR07*IN 512: I08 ISHR08*IN 513: I09 ISHR09*IN 514: I 10 ISHR10*IN 515: I 11 ISHR 11*IN 516: I12 ISHR12*IN 517: I13 ISHR13*IN 518: I14 ISHR14*IN 519: I15 ISHR15*IN 520: I 16 ISHR16*IN 521: I17 ISHR17*IN 522: I 18 ISHR18*IN 523: I 19 ISHR19*IN 00 w 524: I20 ISHR20*IN DIVISION OF SECTORAL INVESTMENT BETWEEN FIXED AND CIRCULATING CAPITAL: 525: SK01 RH001*(I01-DELTA01*FK01(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 526: SK02 RH002*(I02-DELTA02*FK02(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 527: SK03 RH003*(I03-DELTA03*FK03(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 528: SK04 RH004*(I04-DELTA04*FK04(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 529: SK05 RH005*(I05-DELTA05*FK05(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 530: SK06 RH006*(I06-DELTA06*FK06(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 531: SK07 RH007*(I07-DELTA07*FK07(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 532: SK08 RH008*(I08-DELTA08*FK08(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK '533: SK09 RH009*(I09-DELTA09*FK09(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 534: SK10 RH010*(I10-DELTA10*FK10(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 535: SK11 RH011*(I11-DELTA11*FK11(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 536: SK12 RH012*(I12-DELTA12*FK12(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 537: SK13 RH013*(I13-DELTA13*FK13(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 538: SK14 RH014*(I14-DELTA14*FK14(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 539: SK15 RH015*(I15-DELTA15*FK15(-1))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 540: SK16 RH016*(I16-0ELTA16*FK16(-l))*(SK-SKOISCR)/SK 541: SK17 RH017*(I17-DELTA17*FK17(-l))*(SK•SKDISCR)/SK 542: SK18 RH018*(118-DELTA18*FK18(-l))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 543: SK19 RH019*(I19-DELTAl9*FK19(-l))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK 544: SK20 RH020*(I20-DELTA20*FK20(-l))*(SK-SKDISCR)/SK ......• SKDISCR RECONCILES SECTORAL ALLOCATION WITH FI AND SK DETERMINED ABOVE: 545: SKDISCR =RH001*(I01-DELTA01*FK01(-l))+RH002*(I02-DELTA02*FK02(-l))+RH003*(I03-DELTA03*FK03(-l))+RH004*(ID4-DELTAD4* FK04(-l))+RH005*(I05-DELTA05*FK05(-l))+RH006*(I06-DELTA06*FK06(-l))+RH007*(I07-DELTA07*FK07(-1))+RHOOB*(I08-DELTADB* FKOB(-l))+RH009*(I09-DELTA09*FK09(-l))+RH010*(I10-DELTA10*FK10(-l))+RH011*(I11-DELTA11*FK11(-l))+RH012*(I12-DELTA12* FK12(-l))+RH013*(I13-DELTA13*FK13(-l))+RH014*(I14-DELTA14*FK14(-l))+RH015*(I15-DELTA15*FK15(-l))+RH016*(I16-DELTA16* FK16(-l))+RH017*(I17-DELTA17*FK17(-l))+RH01B*(I1B-DELTA18*FK18(-l))+RH019*(I19-DELTA19*FK19(-l))+RH020*(I20-DELTA2D* FK20(-1))-SK . ....... SKDISCR IS USED TO CORRECT THE SK/FI RATIO IN THE NEXT PERIOD: 546: FIOl IOl-SKOl 547: FI02 I02-SK02 548: FI03 I03-SK03 549: FI04 I04-SK04 550: FI05 I05-SK05 551: FI06 I06-SK06 552: FI07 I07-SK07 553: FI08 I08-SKOB 554: FI09 I09-SK09 555: FI 10 I10-SK10 556: Fill Ill-SKll 557: FI12 I12-SK12 558: FI13 I13-SK13 559: FI 14 I14-SK14 560: FI 15 I15-SK15 561: FI 16 I16-SK16 562: FI17 I17-SK17 563: FilB I18-SK1B 564: FI 19 I19-SK19 565: FI20 I20-SK20 CAPITAL STOCK UPDATING : 566: PK = (1-SKSHR)*(B01*P01+B02*P02+B03*P03+B04*P04+B05*P05+B06*P06+B71*P71+B72*P72+BOB*POB+B09*P09+B10*P10+Bll*Pll+B12* P12+B13*P13+B14*P14+B15*P15+B16*P16+B17*P17+B1B*P1B+B19*P19+B20*P20)+SKSHR*PBAR(-1) 567: FKOl = FIOl/PK+(l-DELTAOl)*FKOl(-1)  568: FK02 FI02/PK+(1-0ELTA02)•FK02(-1) 569: FK03 FI03/PK+(1-DELTA03)*FK03(-1) 570: FK04 FI04/PK+(1-DELTA04)*FK04(-1) 571: FK05 FI05/PK+(1-DELTA05)*FK05(-1) 572: FK06 FI06/PK+(1-DELTA06)*FK06(-1) 573: FK07 FI07/PK+(1-DELTA07)*FK07(-1) 574: FK08 FI08/PK+(1-DELTA08)*FK08(-1) 575: FK09 FI09/PK+(1-DELTA09)*FK09(-1) 576: FK10 = FI10/PK+(1-DELTA10)*FK10(-1) 577: FK11 FI11/PK+(1-DELTA11)*FK11(-1) 578: FK12 FI12/PK+(1-DELTA12)*FK12(-1) 579: FK13 FI13/PK+(1-DELTA13)*FK13(-1) 580: FK14 FI14/PK+(1-DELTA14)*FK14(-1) 581: FK15 FI15/PK+(1-DELTA15)*FK15(-1) 582: FK16 FI16/PK+(1-DELTA16)*FK16(-1) 583: FK17 FI17/PK+(1-DELTA17)•FK17(-1) 584: FK18 FI18/PK+(1-DELTA18)*FK18(-1) FK19 00 585: FI19/PK+(1-DELTA19)*FK19(-1) 1.11 586: FK20 = FI20/PK+(1-DELTA20)*FK20(-1) I 587: FK = FK01+FK02+FK03+FK04+FKOS+FK06+FK07+FK08+FK09+FK10+FK11+FK12+FK13+FK14+FK15+FK16+FK17+FK18+FK19+FK20 588: WK01 WK01(-1)+SK01/PK 589: WK02 WK02(-1)+SK02/PK 590: WK03 WK03(-1)+SK03/PK . 591: WK04 WK04(-1)+SK04/PK 592: WK05 WK05(-1)+SK05/PK 593: WK06 WK06(-1)+SK06/PK 594: WK07 WK07(-1)+SK07/PK 595: WK08 WK08(-1)+SK08/PK 596: WK09 WK09(-1)+SK09/PK 597: WK10 WK10(-1)+SK10/PK 598: WK11 WK11(-1)+SK11/PK 599: WK12 WK12(-1)+SK12/PK 600: WK13 = WK13(-1)+SK13/PK 601: WK14 WK14(-1)+SK14/PK 602: WK15 WK15(-1)+SK15/PK 603: WK16 WK16(-1)+SK16/PK 604: WK17 WK17(-1)+SK17/~K 605: WK18 WK18(-1)+SK18/PK 606: WK19 WK19(-I)+SK19/PK 607: WK20 WK20(-I)+SK20/PK 608: WK = WKOI+WK02+WK03+WK04+WK05+WK06+WK07+WK08+WK09+WK10+WK11+WK12+WK13+WK14+WK15+WK16+WK17+WK18+WKI9+WK20 609: K01 FKOl+WKOI 610: K02 = FK02+WK02 611: K03 = FK03+WK03 612: K04 = FK04+WK04 613: KOS FK05+WK05 614: K06 FK06+WK06 615: K07 FK07+WK07 616: K08 FK08+WK08 617: K09 FK09+WK09 CD ()'\ 618: K10 FK10+WK10 I 619: K11 = FK11+WK11 620: K12 FK12+WK12 621: K13 FK13+WK13 622: K14 FK14+WK14 623: K15 FK15+WK15 624: K16 = FK16+WK16 625: K17 FK17+WK17 626: K18 FK18+WK18 627: K19 FK19+WK19 628: K20 FK20+WK20 629: K = KOI+K02+K03+K04+K05+K06+K07+K08+K09+K10+K11+K12+K13+K14+K15+K16+K17+K18+K19+K20 UPDATING PRICES (FIRST 22 EQUATIONS DETERMINE RELATIVE PRICES AND PROFIT RATE PAIZ): 630: Z01 = AOIOI*ZOI+A0201*Z02+A0301*Z03+A0401*Z04+A0501•Z05+A0601*Z06+A7101*Z71+A7201*Z72+A0801*Z08+A0901*Z09+AI001*Z10+ A110I•Z11+A1201*Z12+A1301•Z13+A1401•Z14+A1501•Z15+A1601•Z16+A1701•Z17+A1801•ZI8+A1901*Z•9+A2001*Z20+LOI/QSOI•W03* ALPHA01+K01(-1)/QS01•PAIZ•ZETA01 631: Z02 =AOI02•ZOI+A0202•Z02+A0302•Z03+A0402•Z04+A0502•Z05+A0602*Z06+A7102•Z71+A7202•Z72+A0802•Z08+AQ902•Z09+A1002*ZIO+ A1102*ZII+A1202*Z12+A1302*Z13+A1402*Z14+A1502*Z15+A1602*Z16+A1702*Z17+A1802*Z18+A1902*Z19+A2002*Z20+AL02*W03*ALPHA02+ K02(-1)/QS02*PAIZ*ZETA02 632: Z03 = A0103*Z01+A0203*Z02+A0303*Z03+A0403*Z04+A0503*Z05+A0603*Z06+A71034Z71+A7203*Z72+A0803*Z08+A0903*Z09+A1003*Z10+ A1103*Z11+A1203*Z12+A1303*Z13+A1403*Z14+A1503•Z15+A1603•Z16+A1703*Z17+A1803*Z18+A1903*Z19+A2003*Z20+AL03*W03+K03(-1)/ QS03*PAIZ 633: Z04 = A0104*Z01+A0204*Z02+A0304*Z03+A0404*Z04+A0504*Z05+A0604*Z06+A710¢*Z71+A7204*Z72+A0804*Z08+A0904*Z09+A1004*Z10+ A1104*Z11+A1204*Z12+A1304*Z13+A1404*Z14+A1504*Z15+A1604*Z16+A1704*Z17+A1804*Z18+A1904*Z19+A2004*Z20+AL04*W03*ALPHA04+ K04(-1)/QS04*PAIZ*ZETA04 634: Z05 = A0105*Z01+A0205*Z02+A0305*Z03+A0405*Z04+A0505*Z05+A0605*Z06+A7105*Z71+A7205*Z72+AOB05*Z08+A0905*Z09+A1005*Z10+ A1105*Z11+A1205*Z12+A1305*Z13+A1405*Z14+A1505*Z15+A1605*Z16+A1705*Z17+A1805*Z18+A1905*Z19+A2005*Z20+AL05*W03*ALPHA05+ K05(-1)/QS05*PAIZ*ZETA05 635: Z06 = A0106*Z01+A0206*Z02+A0306*Z03+A0406*Z04+A0506*Z05+A0606*Z06+A7106*Z71+A7206*Z72+A0806*Z08+A0906*Z09+A1006*Z10+ A1106*Z11+A1206*Z12+A1306*Z13+A1406*Z14+A1506*Z15+A1606*Z16+A1706*Z17+A1806*Z18+A1906*Z19+A2006*Z20+AL06*W03*ALPHA06+ K06(-1)/QS06*PAIZ*ZETA06 636: Z07 =A0107*Z01+A0207*Z02+A0307*Z03+A0407*Z04+A0507*Z05+A0607*Z06+A7107*Z71+A7207*Z72+A0807*Z08+A0907*Z09+A1007*Z10+ A1107*Z11+A1207*Z12+A1307*Z13+A1407*Z14+A1507*Z15+A1607*Z16+A1707*Z17+A1807*Z18+A1907*Z19+A2007*Z20+AL07*W03*ALPHA07+ K07(-1)/QS07*PAIZ*ZETA07 .. 637: Z71 Z07 638: Z72 Z07 639: Z08 A0108*Z01+A0208*Z02+A0308*Z03+A0408*Z04+A0508*Z05+A0608*Z06+A7108*Z71+A7208*Z72+A0808*Z08+A0908*Z09+A1008*Z10+ A1108*Z11+A1208*Z12+A1308*Z13+A1408*Z14+A1508*Z15+A1608*Z16+A1708*Z17+A1808*Z18+A1908*Z19+A2008*Z20+AL08*W03*ALPHA08+ K08(-1)/QS08*PAIZ*ZETA08 640: Z09 = A0109*Z01+A0209*Z02+A0309*Z03+A0409*Z04+A0509*Z05+A0609*Z06+A7109*Z71+A7209*Z72+A0809*Z08+A0909*Z09+A1009*Z10+ A1109*Z11+A1209*Z12+A1309*Z13+A1409*Zi4+A1509*Z15+A1609*Z16+A1709*Z17+A1809*Z18+A1909*Z19+A2009*Z20+AL09*W03*ALPHA09+ K09(-1)/QS09*PAIZ*ZETA09 641: Z10 = A0110*Z01+A0210*Z02+A0310*Z03+A0410*Z04+A0510*Z05+A0610*Z06+A7110*Z71+A7210*Z72+A0810*Z08+A0910*Z09+A1010*Z10+ A1110*Z11+A1210*Z12+A1310*Z13+A1410*Z14+A1510*Z15+A1610*Z16+A1710*Z17+A1810*Z18+A1910*Z19+A2010*Z20+AL10*W03*ALPHA10+ K10(-1)/QS10*PAIZ*ZETA10 642: Zll = A0111*Z01+A0211*Z02+A0311*Z03+A0411*Z04+A0511*Z05+A0611*Z06+A7111*Z71+A7211*Z72+A0811*Z08+A0911*Z09+A1011*Z10+ A1111*Z11+A1211*Z12+A1311*Z13+A1411*Z14+A1511*Z15+A1611*Z16+A1711*Z17+A1811*Z18+A1911*Z19+A2011*Z20+AL11*W03*ALPHA11+ K11(-1)/QS11*PAIZ*ZETA11 . 643: Z12 = A0112*Z01+A0212*Z02+A0312*Z03+A0412*Z04+A0512*Z05+AQ612*Z06+A7112*Z71+A7212*Z72+A0812*Z08+A0912*Z09+A1012*Z10+ A1112*Z11+A1212*Z12+A1312*Z13+A1412*Z14+A1512*Z15+A1612*Z16+A1712*Z17+A1812*Z18+A1912*Z19+A2012*Z20+AL12*W03*ALPHA12+ K12(-1)/QS12*PAIZ*ZETA12 644: Z13 =A0113*Z01+A0213*Z02+A0313*Z03+A0413*Z04+A0513*ZOS+A0613*Z06+A7113*Z71+A7213*Z72+A0813*Z08+A0913*Z09+A1013*Z10+ A1113*Z11+A1213*Z12+A1313*Z13+A1413*Z14+A1513*Z15+A1613*Z16+A1713*Z17+A1813*Z18+A1913*Z19+A2013*Z20+AL13*W03*ALPHA13+ K13(-1)/QS13*PAIZ*ZETA13 645: Z14 = A0114*Z01+A0214*Z02+A0314*Z03+A0414*Z04+A0514*Z05+A0614*Z06+A7114*Z71+A7214*Z72+A0814*Z08+A0914*Z09+A1014*Z10+ A1114*Z11+A1214*Z12+A1314*Z13+A1414*Z14+A1514*Z15+A1614*Z16+A1714*Z17+A1814*Z18+A1914*Z19+A2014*Z20+AL14*W03*ALPHA14+ K14(-1)/QS14*PAIZ*ZETA14 "646: Z15 =A0115*Z01+A0215*Z02+A0315*Z03+A0415*Z04+A0515*Z05+A0615*Z06+A7115*Z71+A7215*Z72+A0815*Z08+A0915*Z09+A1015*Z10+ A1115*Z11+A1215*Z12+A1315*Z13+A1415*Z14+A1515*Z15+A1615*Z16+A1715*Z17+A1815*Z18+A1915*Z19+A2015*Z20+AL15*W03*ALPHA15+ K15(-1)/QS15*PAIZ*ZETA15 647: Z16 =A0116*Z01+A0216*Z02+A0316*Z03+A0416*Z04+A0516*Z05+A0616*Z06+A7116*Z71+A7216*Z72+A0816*Z08+A0916*Z09+A1016*Z10+ A1116*Z11+A1216*Z12+A1316*Z13+A1416*Z14+A1516*Z15+A1616*Z16+A1716*Z17+A1816*Z18+A1916*Z19+A2016*Z20+AL16*W03*ALPHA16+ K16(-1)/QS16*PAIZ*ZETA16 648: Z17 = A0117*Z01+A0217*Z02+A0317*Z03+A0417*Z04+A0517*Z05+A0617*Z06+A7117*Z71+A7217*Z72+A0817*Z08+A0917*Z09+A1017*Z10+ A1117*Z11+A1217*Z12+A1317*Z13+A1417*Z14+A1517*Z15+A1617*Z16+A1717*Z17+A1817*Z18+A1917*Z19+A2017*Z20+AL17*W03*ALPHA17+ K17(-1)/QS17*PAIZ*ZETA17 ....... CAPITAL COST TERMS IN NEXT 3 EQUATIONS MOOIFIEO TO COMPENSATE FOR ONE PERIOD LAG 649: Z18 = A0118*Z01+A0218*Z02+A0318*Z03+A0418*Z04+A0518*Z05+A0618*Z06+A7118*Z71+A7218*Z72+A0818*Z08+A0918*Z09+A1018*Z10+ A1118*Z11+A1218*Z12+A1318*Z13+A1418*Z14+A1518*Z15+A1618*Z16+A1718*Z17+A1818*Z18+A1918*Z19+A2018*Z20+AL18*W03*ALPHA18+( 2*K18(-1)*DELTA18-DEPR18)/QS18 650: Z19 = A0119*Z01+A0219*Z02+A0319*Z03+A0419*Z04+A0519*Z05+A0619*Z06+A7119*Z71+A7219*Z72+A0819*Z08+A0919*Z09+A1019*Z10+ A1119*Z11+A1219*Z12+A1319*Z13+A1419*Z14+A1519*Z15+A1619*Z19+A1719*l17+A1819*Z18+A1919*Z19+A2019*Z20+AL19*W03*ALPHA19+( 2*K19(-1)*DELTA19-DEPR19)/QS19 651: Z20 = A0120*Z01+A0220*Z02+A0320*Z03+A0420*Z04+A0520*Z05+A0620*Z06+A7120*Z71+A7220*Z72+A0820*Z08+A0920*Z09+A1020*Z10+ A1120*Z11+A1220*Z12+A1320*Z13+A1420*Z14+A1520*Z15+A1620*Z20+A1720*Z17+A1820*Z18+A1920*Z19+A2020*Z20+AL20*W03*ALPHA20+( 2*K20(-1)*SMALLR-RENT)/QS20 ....... NEXT EQUATION NORMALIZES ALL PRICES BY REQUIRING PBAR=1: 652: Y = (C01+G01+1001)/Z01+X01-M01+(C02+G02+1002)/Z02+X02-M02+(C03+G03+1003)/Z03+X03-M03+(C04+G04+1004)/Z04+X04-M04+(C05+ G05+1005)/Z05+X05-M05+(C06+G06+1006)/Z06+X06-M06+(C71+G71+1071)/Z71+X71-M71+(C72+G72+1072)/Z72+X72-M72+(C08+G08+1008)/ Z08+X08-M08+(C09+G09+1009)/Z09+X09-M09+(C10+G10+1010)/Z10+X10-M10+(Cl1+G11+1011)/Z11+X11-M11+(C12+G12+1012)/Z12+X12- M12+(C13+G13+1013)/Z13+X13-M13+(C14+G14+1014)/Z14+X14-M14+(C15+G15+1015)/Z15+X15-M15+(C16+G16+1016)/Z16+X16-M16+(C17+ G17+1017)/Z17+X17-M17+(C1B+G18+101B)/Z18+X18-M18+(C19+G19+1019)/Z19+X19-M19+(C20+G20+1020)/Z20+X20-M20 DERIVATION OF MPS NATIONAL ACCOUNTS : 653: . VRAT17 = (NQ17-DELTA17*FK17(-1)*PK)/(QS17*P17*(1-A1717)) ....... PART OF SECTOR 17 OUTPUT SUPPORTS MATERIAL PRODUCTION IN OTHER SECTORS: 654: NMP01 NQ01-DELTA01*FK01(-1)*PK+A1701*QS01*P17*VRAT17 655: NMP02 NQ02-DELTA02*FK02(-1)*PK+A1702*QS02*P17*VRAT17 656: NMP03 NQ03-DELTA03*FK03(-1)*PK+A1703*QS03*P17*VRAT17 657: NMP04 NQ04-DELTA04*FK04(-1)*PK+A1704*QS04*P17*VRAT17 658: NMP05 NQ05-DELTA05*FK05(-1)*PK+A1705*QS05*P17*VRAT17 659: NMP06 NQ06-DELTA06*FK06(-1)*PK+A1706*QS06*P17*VRAT17 00 00 660: NMP07 NQ07-DELTA07*FK07(-1)*PK+A1707*QS07*P17*VRAT17 661: NMPOS NQ08-DELTA08*FKOB(-1)*PK+A170B*QS08*P17*VRAT17 662: NMP09 NQ09-DELTA09*FK09(-1)*PK+A1709*QS09*P17*VRAT17 663: NMP10 NQ10-DELTA10*FK10(-1)*PK+A1710*QS10*P17*VRAT17 664: NMP11 NQ11-DELTA11*FK11(-1)*PK+A1711*QS11*P17*VRAT17 665: NMP12 NQ12-DELTA12*FK12(-1)*PK+A1712*QS12*P17*VRAT17 666: NMP13 NQ13-DELTA13*FK13(-1)*PK+A1713*QS13*P17*VRAT17 667: NMP14 NQ14-DELTA14*FK14(-1)*PK+A1714*QS14*P17*VRAT17 ....... PASSENGER TRANSPORT SUBTRACTED (APPROXIMATED BY C15): 668: NMP15 (NQ15-DELTA15*FK15(-1)*PK+A1715*QS15*P17*VRAT17)*(1-C15/(QS15*P15)) 669: NMP16 = NQ16-DELTA16*FK16(-1)*PK+A1716*QS16*P17*VRAT17 670: NMP = NMP01+NMP02+NMP03+NMP04+NMP05+NMP06+NMP07+NMP08+NMP09+NMP10+NMP11+NMP12+NMP13+NMP14+NMP15+NMP16-XLOSS-MLOSS 671: NMPREAL = NMP/PBAR 672: NMPSHR01 NMP01/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 673: NMPSHR02 NMP02/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 674: NMPSHR03 = NMP03/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 675: NMPSHR04 NMP04/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 676: NMPSHR05 NMP05/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 677: NMPSHR06 NMP06/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 678: NMPSHR07 = NMP07/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 679: NMPSHR08 NMP08/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 680: NMPSHR09 NMP09/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 681: NMPSHR10 = NMP10/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 682: NMPSHR11 = NMP11/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 683: NMPSHR12 = NMP12/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 684: NMPSHR13 = NMP13/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 685: N!IIPSHR14 NMP14/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 686: NMPSHR15 NMP15/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) 687: NMPSHR16 NMP16/(NMP+XLOSS+MLOSS) ••••••. MPS INVESTMENT IS NET OF DEPRECIATION, INCLUDES DEFENCE INVESTMENT: 688: IMAT =IN-OEPR+MILINV 689: OEPR = DELTA01*FK01(-1)*PK+DELTA02*FK02(-1)*PK+DELTA03*FK03(-1)*PK+OELTA04*FK04(-1)*PK>OELTA05*FK05(-1)*PK+OELTA06* FK06(-1)*PK+OELTA07*FK07(-1)*PK+OELTA08*FK08(-1)*PK+OELTA09*FK09(-1)*PK+OELTA10*FK10(-1)*PK+OELTA11*FK11(-1)*PK+ OELTA12*FK12(-1)*PK+OELTA13*FK13(-1)*PK+OELTA14*FK14(-1)*PK+OELTA15*FK15(-1)*PK+OELTA16*FK16(-1)*PK+OELTA17*FK17(-1)* PK+OEPR18+0EPR19+0ELTA20*FK20(-1)*PK 690: MILl NV 691: GMAT = GN-MILINV-(G17+G18/(QS18*P18)*A1718*QS18*P17)*VRAT17-G18*WB18/(QS18*P18)-WB19 692: CMAT = CN-C15*(NQ15-0ELTA15*FK15(-1)*PK+A17l5*QS15*P17*VRAT17)/(QS15*P15)-(C17+C18/(QS18*P18)*A1718*QS18*P17+A1720* QS20*P17)*VRAT17-C18*WB18/(QS18*P18)-(NQ20-DELTA20*FK20(-1)*PK) . 693: NIA = IMAT+GMAT+CMAT 694: ACCRATE IMAT/NIA 695: GMATSHR GMAT/NIA 696: CMATSHR CMAT/NIA SECTORAL NET OUTPUT SHARES (SNA BASIS): 697: NQSHR01 NQ01/(V+XLOSS+MLOSS) 698: NQSHR02 NQ02/(V+XLOSS+MLOSS) NQSHR03 = NQ03/(V+XLOSS+MLOSS) z~ 699: 700: NQSHR04 = NQ04/(V+XLOSS+MLOSS) I'll I'll t-.)Q. ::s 701: NQSHR05 NQ05/(V+XLOSS+MLOSS) ......... NQSHR06 NQ06/(V+XLOSS+MLOSS) 0 >< 702: HI till 703: NQSHR07 = NQ07/(V+XLOSS+MLOSS) N ..... 704: NQSHR08 = NQ08/(V+XLOSS+MLOSS)  - 90 - Appendix C Page 1 of 8 APPENDIX C: ADDITIONAL RESULTS OF QUADRUPLE CHA30UTD =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ ACCRATE CMAT CMATSHR CN =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 0.291903 239.756 0.60801 255.787 1990 0.300551 427.968 0.605604 461.201 2000 0.293162 779.016 0.616058 849.863 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ CPI CR01 CR02 CR03 =============== ================ ================ ================ ~=============== 1981 l. 66.6389 21.4776 o. 1990 1.00394 87.5409 42.7133 -1.775652!-11 2000 1.01762 109.627 82.1803 -l.955916E-11 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ CR04 CR05 CR06· CR08 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 0.34936 2.68912 0.019982 5.96352 1990 1.06099 3.54741 0.035861 12.1753 2000 3.06611 4.62651 0.062162 25.339 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ ================ ---------------- ================ CR09 CR10 CR11 CR12 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 15.1123 o. 51.9444 30.4633 1990 32.3382 -l.078972E-11 104.939 55.3486 2000 70.3821 -1.188973!-11 205.703 100.592 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ CR13 CR14 CR15 CR16 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 8.64959 o. 5.23413 25.917 1990 18.8344 -2.729443!-10 10.8563 47.2953 2000 41.7574 -2.997220!-10 21.7861 85.9916 =============== ================ ================ ================ ==============~= =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ CR17 CR18 CR19 CR20 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 ·7.99132 1.7985 o. 11.2078 1990 16.3048 3.16552 o. 22.8356 2000 33.0204 5.33639 o. 45.0724 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ CR7l CR72 DD01 DD02 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 o. 0.329771· 178.881 40.7733 1990 1.901399!-14 0.532884 243.756 81.6645 2000 2.043316!-14 0.839894 343.972 164.082  - 91 - Appendix C Page 2 of 8 1===============1===============-J=·==============I================I================I =============== ================ ==-~==-========================= ======--====--== DD03 DD04 DDOS DD06. =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 47.1231 19.4179 16.3781 11.3199 1990 93.1618 36.8361 27.8877 16.3254 200Q 181.693 74.6871 44.5308 26.0436 ~============== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ =====&========== ================ =======~======= DD08 DD09 DD10 DOll =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 62.1131 118.604 23.0157 68.7507 1990 139.942 263.926 47.1344 155.735 2000 321.602 577.283 90.9637 340.21 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ -~============= ================ ================ ================ ================ DD12 DD13 DD14 DD15 =============== ================ -=============== ================ =============·== 1981 104.74 49.6917 75.0487 29.7977 1990 204.064 99.779 146.767 57.9376 2000 378.637 200.722 281.714 115.673 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ ==========·===· ================ ====·=========== ================ ================ DD16 DD17 DD18 DD19 =======..======= ================ ================ ================ ===========··=-= 1981 50.0914 11.9592 39.4071 9.61199 1990 94.2995 23.8103 55.2189 11.4393 2000 180.282 47.3586 72.0253 14.2794 ================ ================ ====-=========== ================ ================ ====~========== ================ ================ ==============·= =============e.= DD20 DD7l DD72 DEPR =============== ================ ·=============== ================ =======·====--=- 1981 ll.2078 1.58995 12.2399 23.5476 1990 22.8356 2.49252 23.0604 49.4812 2000 45.0724 3.76274 44.2965 105.729 ================ ================ ================ ========z•====== ================ ==============· ================ DEPR18 =·============== =====·========== ==============·= DEPR19 EXCHR GMAT =============== ==========·===== ==============m= ================ ==============·== 1981 0.807178 0.805478 1.7 39.4675 1990 -0.684158 1.99564 1.08077 66.3192 2000 -0.405426 3.67082 0.602548 114.792 =============== ==============-= ================ ================ =========-=---=== ==========·==== ~=============== ================ ================ ============•=== GMATSHR GN GR01 GR02 ============c== ================ ================ ====-=========== ===========•==== 1981 0.100088 69.9717 0.859284 o. 1990 0.093846 126.164 1.43474 o. 2000 0.090779 232.484 2.44599 o. =======·======= =··-===···====== -=============== ================ ============--=-  - 92 - Appendix C Page 3 of 8 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 o. 0.499583 0.269775 o. 1990 9.659981E-12 0.706156 0.441519 o. 2000 -3.872458E-13 1.14944 0.742512 o. ====·=========== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ GR08 GR09 GR10 GR11 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 0.999167 8.40299 0.199833 0.639467 1990 1.90235 16.4848 0.382354 1.15863 2000 3.74632 32.8483 0.756073 2.08909 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ GR12 GR13 GR14 GR15 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 0.999167 3.10741 2.09825 2.11823 1990 1.92076 5.85884 3.93764 3.63821 2000 3.66783 11.1659 7.46539 6.28682 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ GR16 GR17 GR18. GR19 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 0.269775 1.99833 37.6086 9.61199 1990 0.509249 3.70513 52.0534 11.4392 2000 0.976834 6.83015 66.6889 14.2794 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ GR20 GR71 GR72 GVIAO =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 o. 0.039967 0.249792 752.996 1990 o. 0.043381 0.271134 1435.03 2000 o. 0.062102 0.388137 2816.63 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ GVO IMAT IN IOR01 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 983.427 115.106 130.253 19.3575 1990 1854.63 212.393 246.728 15.3575 2000 3592,53 370.708 448.526 17.3455 =============== ================ ================ ================ ======r========= =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ IOR02 IOR03 IOR04 IOR05 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981· 2.29623 1.49754 o. o. 1990 3.28043 4.09246 o. 1.02982 2000 5.72648 7.71416 o. 1.29981 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ IOR06 IOR08 IOR09 IOR10 =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 o. 0.798689 37.1674 0.199672 1990 0.413876 6.19053 83.7052 2.25685 2000 0.369985 13.6583 170.903 4.30523  Appendix C - 93 - Page 4 of 8 1=====-=========1=========-===-==1==-==-==========1~==-============1================1 =============== ==============-- --===--========== =-============== ================ IOR11 IOR12 IOR13 IOR14 ===========-=== ==========·====- =====s========== ================ •===========--== 1981 0.449262 4.49262 2.69557 56.8532 1990 6.9533 10.6725 5.07546 111.691 2000 13.6658 18.3811 10.1102 212.866 =============== ================ ================ ================ ============···· =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ IOR15 IOR16 IOR17 IOR18 ============== =-============== ================ ================ ====--========== 1981 1.79787 2.64729 o. o. 1990 1.79656 3.949 o. o. 2000 3.12073 7.61463 o. o. =============== ================ ================ ================ =========-====== =============== ================ ====·=========== ================ ================ IOR19 IOR20 IOR71 IOR72 ===========··-= ·========·===··= ================ ·=============== =======·=·=====· 1981 o. o. o. o. 1990 o. o. 0.069721 0.629891 2000 o. o. 0.073997 0.805062 ===---·=·=-==== =========-===·== ================ ================ ================ ========-====== ================ ================ =====---======== ================ ISHR01 ISHR02 ISHR03 ISHR04 ===~=========== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 0.061719 0.031973 0.048839 0.055816 1990 0.025175 0.058194 0.045731 . 0.08373 2000 0.018693 0.057406 0.042859 0'.102093 ==-=====·====== ================ ==-==-========== ======--======== ================ =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ ISHR05 ISHR06 ISHR07 ISHR08 =============== =======···====-= ============-=== ·=============~- ======-======-== 1981 0.032267 0.02611 0.007984 I 0.039662 1990 0.031013 0.035072 0.010054 0.049331 2000 0.02733 0.030841 0.010345 0.058383 ============·== =============·== ··==·=========== ================ ================ ====·========== ========···=-=·= ==·============= ·=============== ================ ISHR09 ISHR10 ISHR11 ISHR12 ============= ================ ===============· -==·============ =======··====== 1981 0.13557 0.021979 0.015326 0.032713 1990 0.151278 0.022252 0.020031 0.01955 2000 0.165935 0.02107 0.020771 0.020451 =======-======= ========--===·== ===·============ =========·====== ==========·===== =============== =============·-= ================ ================ =======········~ ISHR13 ISHR14 ISHR15 ISHR16 ==========·==·= ============·=== ================ ===•============ =========·····=· 1981 0.039072 0.019021 0.091392 0.144309 1990 0.033428 0.017308 0.104871 0.108863 2000 0.034534 0.016698 0.108391 0.099348 ·========·=·=== ================ ===========·==== ·====•==·======= ================ =·====·==·=====!=========·===·==1=====--==·==·==··l·===============l===·============j 1 ISHR17 ISHRl8 ISHR19 ISHR20  Appendix C - 94 - Page 5 of 8 =·-============ ====----====·=== =·=========····=== ·================ ================= 1981 0.005052 0.023903 0.044938 0.12231 1990 0.004783 0.021767 0.029236 0.128335 2000 0.00443 0.018554 0.025949 0.11592 ====-s========= ================= ===========-====== =====--========= ================ =============== ================== ================= ================ ================ MIL INV KLOSS MU MOl =============== ================ ================ ================. ================= 1981 8.4005 0.127808 0.287724 5.471 1990 15.1467 7.18093 0.29 4.19026 2000 27.911 25.9463 0.29 7.66437 =============== =========·====== ================ ================ ================ ==-============ ================ ================ =======·======== ================ M02 M03 M04 M05 ============--== ================ ======·========= ================ =====·========== 1981 -2.364072E-05 3.18305 o. 0.08885 1990 5.42193 9.9738 o. 3.71762 2000 4.27237 19.7244 o. 7.47569 =============== =========·====== ================ ================.================ =·-=====·====== =======··=====·= ==--=====·======= ===--============ ================= M06 MOB M09 MlO ==---===========· ============-==· =·============== -========--=·==== =====·=======·== 1981 0.000136 4.54298 9.89489 -1.459753E-05 1990 -2.087775E-05 12.5775 21.1139 0.235652 2000 0.564928 30.5173 46.1823 0.454796 ================ ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ =======·======== ================ ================ Mll Ml2 Ml3 Ml4 -==a.n========= =====·========== =========-====== ==-============= =====-========== 1981 1.21032 6.46084 3.30167 o. 1990 6.71144 4.08128 1.99557 o. 2000 11.8941 7.57256 4.01444 o. ============== ===~============ ================ ====-=======·=== ======::~=-·======= -============-=== ======·========= ===============· ==·============= ================ Ml5 Ml6 Ml7 Ml8 =============== =========·====== ==============-= ===·============ ================ 1981 1.15167 1.44898 o. o. 1990 2.37242 2.98488 o. o. 2000 4.82815 6.07459 o. o. ===---·======== ============··== ==============·= ====--========== ================ -----·========= ================ ================ ================ ··==·==========· Ml9 1120 1171 1172 ==--=·=-======= ================ ======-=-======= ================ ==·============= 1981 o. o. o. 0.020489 1990 .o. o. o. 0.37929 2000 o. o. o. 2.93142 -···==-====·=== =====·==·======= ================ ·=============== ========·======= ====·-=··====== =======···====== ===============· ====·=========== ===·==··======== N NIA NMP NMPREAL ==·=--=====:::a:••= ================ ================ =·====-=·======= =·============== 1981 35.5499 394.329 395.667 395.95 1990 55.5285 706.68 699.863 701.435 2000 86.2333 1264.52 1258.08 1261.49  Appendix C - 95 - Page 6 of 8 1==··====-===·==1================1================1=====--=========1================1 ==-============= --============== =======··====--- ============·=== ================ HXPSHR01 HXPSHR02 HXPSHR03 HMPSHR04 =============== ================ ================ =-======-=====-= ================ 1981 0.351986 0.045726 0.036846 0.025782 1990 0.289235 0.05277 0.032476 0.036608 2000 0.237636 0.065424 0.029779 0.047258 =============== ================ =====-======--== ====-=========== ===-==========--= ============== ================ =============--= ====·======-==== ================ HMPSHR05 HMPSHR06 HMPSHR07 NMPSHR08 =============== ==============-- =-=·======-=--==== ================ ===========---=== 1981 0.018319 ·0.020822 0.014577 0.047244 1990 0.016084 0.038405 0.018921 0.049547 2000 0.014536 0.045874 0.021985 0.053488 ===-=========== ================ =========~===== ================ ================ --======::=·===== ================ ====-=-====·===== ==-============= ================ HMPSHR09 HXPSHR10 HXPSHR11 NMPSHR12 ======-========= ================ ====·=========== =-============== ============-=== 1981 0.095528 0.023761 0.045961 0.079803 1990 0.107188 0.024183 0.049597 0.078824 2000 0.115778 0.02243 0.053048 0.071971 =============== =--============= =--============== ================ ======•========= --============· ·=============-= ================ ·-============== ================ HMPSHR13 NMPSHR14 Hlll?01 HXP02 =============== ===========·==== =======·=====··= ===============· =============-== 1981 0.043408 0.046504 139.384 18.107 1990 0.049911 0.050383 206.512 ·37.6775 2000 0.054452 o.o5426 308.749 85.0016 =-====-·======= ================ ================= ==-·-=========== ================ =====--======· ================ ================ ======-========= ==============·= NMP03 HMP04 HXP05 HXP06 =====-= -···= ==-=======··==== ====--=========== ================ ================ 1981 14.5908 10.2094 7.25407 8.24556 1990 23.1875 26.1381 11.4842 27.4211 2000 38.6898 61.4005 18.8864 59.6014 =====--======== ===····=====--== ===·=======--===== ==-====-======== =========c====== ===-=--========= =====-========== ===--===-=-==--==· ·-====··======== ========-======= HMP07 HXP08 HXP09 NMP10 ====·==··===== ===========--==== •=============·= =====-========== ==--============= 1981 5.77252 18.7084 37.8284 9.40924 1990 13.5093 35.3766 76.5318 17.2663 2000 28.5641 69.4947 150.425 29.1426 ===========--== ================ ========··--==== ···==-==-======= ====·========--- =============== =~====~·===··=== ·=============== ==--============= ===========·==== NMPll HXP12 HXP13 HMP14 ==-=--========== ================ ================ ===·======-===== ·========·====== 1981 18.2003 31.6015 17.1892 18.4151 1990 35.4119 56.2802 35.6362 35.9729 2000 68.9221 93.5082 70.7463 70.497 --=·-==-======= =========-====== ========-======= =====-==~·-===- =~=--===========  - 96 - A22endixc ====-=-=====--===- =----====·-===== ========-======= ======···--===== =---!:~..2.~-~ 1981 0.20979 1. 171.855 258.333 1990 0.185275 0.962866 327.649 424.225 2000 0.165261 0.933224 618.048 698.178 ==-============ ================ ===·==========-= =========---=·=== =============·== ===-=--=======· ====--========== ================ ================ =======--==-==== RENT so T VRAT17 =•=============· =====·========== ================ ================ ======--======== 1981 8.79085 131.59 13.2711 0.851707 1990 17.6544 239.91 14.2576 0.84?151 2000 35.9302 442.085 15.1365 0.847019 ====-=========== =========-====== ===============z ================ =---====·=-====== ============== ==.:============ =========am===== ================ ======--======== WB WB01 WB02 W03 =============== ==========-===== =-=======.======= ============~=======-=======--= 1981 275.416 134.834 17.3679 1.15253 1990 494.791 202.276 36.1309 1.6864 2000 908.362 304.458 82.4613 2.49005 =•===--========== ===--======--=== ================ ================ ================ ================ =========-=•===- ===============· ================ ================ XLOSS X01 X02 X03 =============== =-===----======== ================ ================ ======---==--=--= 1981 0.198588 2.i8973 0.826711 1.74993 1990 6.95083 6.07305 1.55597 1.69771 2000 15.2276 5.86122 3.26143 3.30548 z:==·=-======·== =---=====-====== ·=============== ================ ================ ======-======== ==--============= ================ ================ =============== X04 X05 X06 X08 =--=====···==== ======-=·======= 1981 o. ================ =·=====--======== ================ 0.330738 1.58025 2.95992 1990 o. 0.244142 1.48213 3.93911 2000 o. 0.374294 -3.4l0605E-l0 9.00261 ======-======== =----=-===·===-=== ================ ================ ====-~~========= --=====--=====- =====--======--· ====·-========== ================ ===-====··====== X09 X10 X11 X12 ====-========·=== =-=====--·====== ================ ==========--=-== ====---======---== 1981 4.34112 0.194301 2.64967 10.9904 1990 18.7264 0.679435 6.2093 18.2323 2000 63.4351 1.75664 13.6798 33.6899 =---·========= =-============ ================ ==============~================= =============== ================= ==·============= =============== ================ X13 X14 X15 X16 ============·--== =============== =====•=====·==== ===-===--==·===== -====--========== 1981 3.50996 o. 2.46277 3.44528 1990 11).5964 o. 5.27364 7.37753 2000 32.6296 o. 12.6732 17.'1291 --·-=··--=====- ===·=-=·-=====·= ================= ================ =====--=·======= ==============· ====·========= ===·============ ================ ================ X17 X18 X19 X20 =====·========= ==····========== ================ ==========·===== =====·=··======- 1981 o. o. o. o. 1990 o. o. o. o. 2000 o. o. o. o.  Appendix C - 97 - Page 8 of 8 1===============1================1================1================1================1 =============== ================ ================ ================ y X71 X72 =============== ================ ================ ================ 1981 0.090048 1.12056 457.349 1990 o. 0.229102 827.275 2000 o. 0.417829 1524.43 =============== ================ ================ ================  - 98 - Appendix D Page 1 of 8 APPENDIX D: ADDITIONAL RESULTS OF BALANCE CHA30UTM =============== =====z========== ================ ================ ======~=====·=-= ACCRATE CMAT CMATSHR CK =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ 1981 0.291898 239.757 0.608015 255.783 1990 0.265843 447.511 0.636273 488.391 2000 0.262988 794.841 0.640893 901.429 ===========-=== ================ ================ ================ ================ ======--======== ================ ================ ================ ================ CPI CR01 CR02 CR03 ==============- ================ ================ ================ ================= 1981 l. 66.6404 21.4772 o. 1990 0.998122 87.8843 45.6389 -8.884921E-12 2000 0.99131 108.376 84.2898 -9.762273E-12 ::;:::============-= ================ ================ ================ ================ ==========-==== ======·========= ================ ================ =============:::;==•= CR04 CR05 CR06 CR08 =============-= ===--===========z =====-========== ===========--==== ================ 1981 0.349349 2.68912 0.019982 5.96367 1990 1.18462 3.61866 0.037655 12.7425 2000 3.42973 4.70148 0.064608 24.9211 ============·== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ============•=== ================ ================ ================ CR09 CR10 CR11 CR12 =============== ==·===-====-==== ================ ================ ================= 1981 15.1133 o. 51.9449 30.4641 1990 33.172 -5.564935E-10 110.779 57.1917 2000 66.4341 -6.122169E-10 211.071 99.8314 ========-=·===- =============--== =======---=a-=•== ==--============ ==========-==·=· ============-== ==========·==·=· ================ ================ ===========-==-= CR13 CR14 CR15 CR16 =============== ======·=====•=== ================ =========·==·=== =============-== 1981 8.65082 o. 5.23404 25.9136 1990 18.4691 1.638257E-10 11.6568 53.885 2000 36.059 1.794750E-10 23.4168 122.093 ================ =====·============ ================ ==============·= =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ CR17 CR18 CR19 CR20 ===-===-====•== ================ ==·=·=-==·=·==== ====-====-====== ====:2==-==-==== 1981 7.98641 1.79847 o. 11.2076 1990 24.9,103 3.33092 5.866085E-12 24.4976 2000 69.8524 5.57562 6.160365E-12 48.4808 ======·=======· ===·==·=·==·===· ================ ================ ================ =========-====== ===-=·-=·======= =·============== ·==·============ ===============· CR71 CR72 DD01 DD02 =========·===•== ===========·=··= =-============== ===-============ =~==•====•=-==== 1981 o. 0.329768 178.882 40.7727 1990 1.069919E-11 0.554071 243.756 83.8817 2000 1.134777E-ll 0.865874 336.764 165.387  Appendix D - 99 - Page 2 of 8 1==-============1================1================1=======-========l====s=-=-=======1 ====z========== ================ ================ ===-============ ========-=====-= DD03 DD04 DD05 DD06 =-====-======== ================ ================ ==========~===== ================ 1981 47.123 19.4178 16.378 11.3199 1990 78.1336 35.442 26.1392 15.9622 2000 130.602 68.2337 39.6432 25.4677 ================ ================ ================ ================ ===-============ ====-========== ================ ================ ================ ====--=========== DD08 DD09 DD10 DD11 =============== ================ ===============~ ================ ================ 1981 62.1128 118.604 23.0154 68.7507 1990 127 .. 653 245.834 43.2465 156.981 2000 259.721 492.44 76.0959 333.886 ======·====-=== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ ================ ================ ==-=-===--===·=== DD12 DD13 DD14 DD15 =·============= ================ ================ ==-·-=========== =·=-==·========= 1981 104.741 49.6923 75.0476 29.7973 1990 185.78 90.4173 146.114 57.0076 2000 311.978 163.039 271.521 109.209 =============== ================ ================ ================ ==-====•======== =============== ====--=========== ================ ================ ================ DD16 DD17 DD18 DD19 =============== ==============-= =============--- ================ ===============- 1981 50.0877 11.9542 39.4065 9.61185 1990 110.881 55.3948 57.6688 .11.597 2000 263.361 177.316 76.0109 14.9378 =============== ================ ================ ================ ===========-==== ===·=======-=== ================ ================ =======-======== ================ DD20 DD71 DD72 DEPR =======•======= ========·======= ================ ================ ================ 1981 11.2076 1.58995 12.2399 23.5478 1990 24.4976 2.49252 21.9646 49.201 2000 4B.4BOB 3.76274 39.9058 102.306 =-==-===========·== =============-=== =============-== ================ =========;:::====== =-==·==·======= ================ ===•============ ============-=== =========-====== DEPR18 DEPR19 EXCHR GMA'l' =============== ====-=========== ====·=========== ==============-= ==-==-========== 1981 0.80728 0.80554 1,7 39.4671 1990 -0.392502 2.09877 1.08069 68.8445 2000 -0.05574 3.85625 0.603057 119.208 =============== ================ ================ ======··======== ==-============= =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ GMATSHR GN GR01 GR02 =======-====-== ================= ===============- =-=·===-======== ==============·= 1981 0.100087 69.9706 0.859271 o. 1990 0.097883 133.602 1.50943 o. 2000 0.096119 246.59 2.85546 o. =====·=·======= ================ ================ =============·== ==-=====·====·=== ====-=======-==j================,================j================,================j 1 GR03 GR04 · GR05 GR06  Appendix D - 100 - Page 3 of 8 =============== ================ --=·=======-=--= ================ =======-======== 1981 o. 0.499576 0.269771 o. 1990 -4.059211E-10 0.766548 0.464523 o. 2000 2.125595E-10 1.21932 0.781157 o. =============== ================ ================ =====•r========= ===========~=-= =============== ================ ===-============ ===========-==== =============-== GR08 GR09 GR10 GRl1 ================ ================ ============-·=· ================ ===·============ 1981 0.999152 8.40287 0.19983 0.639457 1990 2.05648 17.7892 0.404235 1.23665 2()00 4.02132 35.2816 0.795749 2.33388 ============== ================ =========•==·=== =-============== ===-============ =============== =============~= ================ ================ ================ GR12 GR13 GR14 GRl5 ================ ================ ================ ================= ========~=~=-=== 1981 0.999152 3.10736 2.09822 2.1182 1990 2.0893 6.20019 4.1719 3.83383 2000 4.04955 11.9341 7.9142 6.58334 =============== ========-=====::::= :::n=============== ======--======== ==--============= ==-============ ================ ================ -==-============ ==•============= GRl6 GR17 GR18 GR19 =-==--========= ============-==s ====•=========== ================ ================ 1981 0.269771 1.9983 37.6081 9.61185 1990 0.535488 4.33303 54.3379 11.597 2000 0.968814 7.44939 79.4353 14.9378 =============== ================ ===============· ==============-= ================ =============== =======~======·= ===-============ =========--====== ·=============== GR20 GR7l GR72 GVIAO ==:;:::•==-=======-= ==========-===== ·=--============ ================ 1981 o. 0.039966 0.249788 752.996 1990 o. 0.047102 0.29439 1353.84 2000 o. 0.065589 0.409931 2454.13 ===-=========== =--=======·====== ========·==·==•= ===•============ =======·==·-==== =============== ================ =======·==-=--=- =====·========== =============·== GVO IIIAT IN IOR01 =============== ============= ====•==·======== ==========--=--==- =-==-==-==·===== 1981 983.416 115.104 130.251 19.3574 1990 1823.78 186.976 220.137 15.7899 2000 3431.19 326.159 398.861 18.0155 ===--=-========= =====·=========== =========•-==·=· ================ ==·==·====--=·=== =-==-==·======= ========•==-==== =====·==·==-==·= ·=-=-==-=====·== ===-============ IOR02 IOR03 IOR04 IOR05 =============== ··====·==-==·=--- ===·=====·=====- =·==·=========== =========·====== ].981 2.29616 1.49749 o. o. 1990 1.62782 1.82298 o. 0.51125 2000 3.93672 3.94524 o. 0.875859 ====-====-====== ===============- =-=====-•=====-= ===-=====-====== ================ ====e========== ================ ==•==•==•==•==·= ·==-==··===-~=== ================ IOR06 IOR08 IOR09 IOR10 ·============== =====-========== =-==•====··===== ·=··=============· ===========-=- 1981 o. 0.798665 37.1668 0.199666 1990 0.211845 2.9568 78.455 1.05761 2000 0.250417 7.83895 156.761 2.48448  - 101 - Appendix D Page 4 of 8 I=·===---======= 1·====-===========1 ==·====·========I=-=============== I=======!====-==-==-=_I =-==·=======·== ======-========= ================ ===-============ ====::~~~~~:=•===-==-=· IOR11 IOR12 IOR13 IOR14 ===-==---===-=== =·=====·=======· =-=-============ -=============== ========·=======-=== 1981 0.449249 . 4.49249 2.69549 56.8524 1990 3.55728 5.07775 2.28416 111.88 2000 9.65598 10.8103 5.40513 207.727 ==·==-========= ==·=====·=·===== ================ ================ ================ --========== ================ ==-=-=========== ===-============ ============·=== IOR15 IOR16 IOR17 IOR18 ====-===·=-===== ====-==-=====-== ===-==========-=. ================ ===-============ 1981 1.79783 2.64724 o. o. 1990 l . 78987 3.92591 o. o. 2000 3.00817 6.95183 o. o. •========•====== ========-==•==== ==-============= ====-=========== ====-=========== ==-========··=== ===========-==-= =======-======== ================ ·--=======·===== IOR19 IOR20 IOR71 IOR72 =~·=-=========== ================ ====·==··=-==·== ================ =====-========= 1981 o. o. o. o. 1990 o. o. 0.03572 0.322715 2000 o. o. 0.050056 0.544598 =·===••=•=::r:=::==• ====-====·==-===·· -=====-=•=====-= ==··=-==·=--====== ===--=-·========= ===-=-========== ===•===·=-=•==== ·=-=============-= ·=-=====-=-==·== ==·====·=======· ISHROl ISHR02 ISHR03 ISHR04 =======··====== ==-·=--=-===-==·= ==•==-==·======= ==-====-======== ============·==· 1981 0.06172 0.031966 0.047531 0.055811 1990 0.028498 0.064898 0.032341 0.083951 2000 0.020849 0.063632 0.027626 0.101241 =·=·-=·==-==·=· ====-==-====-==== ==~=·=====·=== ·==-==·========= ================ ===·=======·==· ==·===--=-==·=== ·=============·= ================ ===============- ISHR05 ISHR06 ISHR07 ISHR08 -=-==-===-==·=-· ====-=-==-=-·=·· ===·=-=====-- ==·============= ====-==·=-==-=== 1981 p.032267 0.02611 0.007984 0.038383 1990 0.034366 0.038839 0.011137 0.041439 2000 0.030521 0.034409 0.011546 0.043436 --==========-==·== =-=====-·==--=--· --···====···=·== ·=-=--========== =·============·= =-==========-== ====-=====-=-=== ··=--==····===== =-==--====-==·== =·=··=·=======-= ISHR09 ISHR10 ISHR11 ISHR12 ===========·==· ··==-====-=====-= ·==--=·=·-=·==== ==-==========-== ==--=====-==-==== 1981 0.150695 0.021405 0.014667 0.035693 1990 0.13425l 0.020874 0.018848 0.015113 2000 0.118686 0.017046 0.019727 0.014054 ==-====-=====-= ==•======·====== ·=·==·========== ================ ================ =-=============== ==-====·-=-==·== =·-=··=·==-=·-== ================ =========·====·· ISHR13 ISHR14 ISHR15 ISHR16 -====-======= ======-======== =··-==·======== ·========-·=-=== =·=======-===--=-= 1981 0.045042 0.018385 0.091384 0.125143 1990 0.027825 0.019253 0.106351 0.103592 2000 0.024064 0.016492 0.108847 0.132779 ==-==•=-===·=·= ===-==·=====-=·· ==·=-·==·====-== ·==·=======·==·= =============·~ j====--=======j=·===;;;~==•==j==··=;;;~;==-=J=====;;;~;====·j=====;;;;~=-==1  - 102 - Appendix D Page 5 of 8 ===·=========-= ==-=·=·========· ===============· ================ ===-·=========== 1981 0.00464~ 0.023901 0.044934 0.122293 1990 0.015828 0.024171 0.030046 0.148378 2000 0.022273 0.021582 0.031427 0.139761 ======~====-=·= =====-=-=====·== ================ ·===========·=== =========-=-=-== ·============== ================ ================ ================ ===-=·========~= MILINV KLOSS MU MOl ===========·=-= ================ ================ ================ =======~======== 1981 8.40037 0.127691 0.287724 5.47209 1990 16.0396 7.90596 0.255 4.19026 2000 29.6045 25.7696 0.255 6.73566 =·=·==··==·=-=· ================ ================ ================ =·===--=====-=== =============== ================ ===~-=========== ================ ===============· 102 103 104 105 =============== ================ ================ ================ ===s~==========· 1981 -2.226979£-05 3.18288 o. 0.088729 1990 5.60582 7.65273 o. 1.9691 2000 3.9919 14.615 o. 2.588 =·========·=·=-== ==•============= ================ ===============· =-~============= =============== ================ ================ ================ ====s=========== 106 MOB 109 MlO ====·========== =•=•============ ================ ================ ==·======~====== 1981 0.00013 4.54275 9.8946 -1.156330£-05 1990 -1.838808E-05 12.2519 26.3477 0.216232 2000 -2.414736£-05 27.1121 59.1254 0.380491 ===========•===== ============-=== ================ ================ ===========·==== =============== -===-==-======== ================ ================ =====·======·=== Ill 112 113 114 ==;::=========•== •========·====-= ================ ======•========= ================ 1981 1.21036 6.46118 .3.30228 o. 1990 5.48003 3.71559 3.19199 o. 2000 10.3244 6.23965 9.77773 o. •===·==-=·=-=-= ================ ================ ==-============= =~==========·== =============== ====·=-=-======= ====·=========== ================ ===========·==== 115 116 117 118 =====·=·=·==-== ================ =============·== ===-===========-=== ==============~= 1981 1.15171 1.44903 o. o. 1990 2.38734 3.00365 o. o. 2000 4.76145 5.99067 o. o. ==========-===== =·============== ================ ==========•===== ===============· ===========-=== ==========·==~=· ==-=·=·========= ·=·=·=========== ================ 119 120 171 172 ===-==~·======= ===========-==== ================ ================ ===============· 1981 o. o. o. 0.020445 1990 .o. o. o. 0.21963 2000 o. o. o. 0.399054 ==========·==== ===========-==== =·============== ================ ===============· =============== ================ ====•=========== ==-=·==========· ================ N NIA NIP HMPREAL =======·==·==== =============-== ================ ================ ======·=-===-=-== 1981 35.5499 394.327 395.666 395.948 1990 55.5285 703.331 696.092 696.568 2000 86.2333 1240.21 1234.29 1236.07  Appendix D - 103 - Page 6 of 8 1====--===-===-==J======--=========1=========-======t========:=======I================J =============== c====-========== ================ ================ ===========-==== NMPSHR01 NMPSHR02 NHPSHR03 NMPSHR04 =============== ================ ==============-= =======-======== ========-======= 1981 0.351987 0.045726 0.036846 0.025782 1990 0.294827 0.05818 0.028707 0.034934 2000 0.216296 0.072049 0.024166 0.045766 =============== ================ ================ ================ ==•======-=--=== ================ ================ ================ ================ ================ NHPSHR05 NHPSHR06 NMPSHR07 NMPSHR08 =============== ================ ================ =====-========-= ================ 1981 0.018319 0.020823 0.014577 0.047244 1990 0.017067 0.037958 0.018941 0.04661 2000 0.015903 0.047684 0.023493 0.0479 ============== ================ ================ ========-======= =-==-=====·===== ==-============== ================ ===~============ =====-========== ================ NHPSHR09 NHPSHR10 NMPSHR11 NHPSHR12 ===·==·==·====== z==========z====== =========·==·=··= ===-==-=-======· ··==·=========== 1981 0.095528 0.023761 0.045961 0.019804 1990 0.096846 0.023392 0.050201 0.072401 2000 0.099396 0.020836 0.056014 0.06298 ---===··==·===== ===·==·========= ================ =============== ========---====·· ============-===== ==========-====== =====·============= ·==•==-===-=--== ================ NHPSHR13 NHPSHR14 NJIJP01 NMP02 =-============= ==========·===== =========·====== ===========--==-= ==•==·========== 1981 0.043408 0.046503 139.384 18.107 1990 0.04632 0.053679 208.965 41.2359 2000 0.046091 0.058604 274.082 91.2979 =~=·======·=== ==========-===== ================ =========·====== ====-~========== ==·=-==-======== ===--=====·==•== ·=··=··==·===·=- ================ ================ NMP03 NHP04 NHP05 NHP06 ==--=====··==·== ==-=·======•==== ·-=··=·-==·==-== ==-=========-=== ======-==·====== 1981 14.5908 10.2093 7.25407 8.24556 1990 20.3466 24.7599 12.0968 26.9036 2000 30.6227 57.9929 20.152 60.4235 ==============-= =====::.•========= =--=-==·===·==-== ·--------------- ---=--========== ·=====··==-==·= ·==-===·======== =-=-•====·--·=== ··=··=-·=--=-==· =--============= NMP07 NMP08 NMP09 NMP10 ====·==··==·==== ====·==-==·==·== ==•=====-·====·= --=-·==-==··==·= ==·-============ 1981 5.77252 18.7084 37.8284 9.40924 1990 13.4245 33.0357 68.6413 16.5798 2000 29.7689 60.6974 125.95 26.4022 ===============· ================ ================ ========-======= ·==··==·=====-== =====-=========== ==•=•=a======·== ==-==--==-==··=· ===--=======·==== ================ NHPll NHP12 NMP13 NMPl4 =============== ================ ================ ·=-=====·····=·· ====•a=••=====•= 1981 18.2003 31.6016 17.1892 18.<U49 1990 35.5809 51.3154 32.8304 38.0459 2000 70.9787 79.806 58.4048 74.2608 ===========·==· ==·============= --=====•·====•== ===··==•==-=--== =~-==-=·======== j===========•===j==•==;;;~;·===·~l=======;;======~l·=====;~;·=====j====;;;~~=====j  Appendix J) - 104 - Page 7 of 8 =====-==-===-== ==·=·=========== ==============-= ====-======-=---= . 171.852 =========-====== 1981 0.20979 1. 258.329 1990 0.184117 0.953383 303.205 451.853 2000 0.168035 0.922577 568.439 760.195 ===============, ·=============== ================ =====~=-==-===== ============-=== =============== ===-============ ================ ================ ==========~===== RENT SD T VRAT17 =========-===== ================ ================ ==============·= ================ 1981 8.7907 131.588 13.2711 0.851705 1990 19.206 212.897 14.2576 0.846498 2000 38.6795 392.946 15.1365 0.867474 ===========-=== ================ ================ ================ ================ =============== ================ ================ ================ ================ WB WB01 WB02 W03 =====~========= ================ ================ ================ =-====-========= 1981 275.412 134.834 17.3677 1.15252 1990 523.451 203.582 38.7817 1.7631 2000 962.908 263.523 84.544 2.52787 =============== ==============-= ================ ================ ==============·= =======·===-==· ·=============== ================ ================ ===·============ XLOSS X01 X02 X03 ==·=======-=-=· ================ ============--=== ================ -·~·============ 1981 0.198489 2.18973 0.827274 1.74993 1990 4. 77266 6.07306 1.59747 3.201 2000 7.09385 12.1406 _3.29378 6.10107 =•=-==-=-==•=-= ·=-=·==-=·====== ==-============= ================ =-========--==-== ===========-=== =====-======·==- ===========•===== =========·============ ================ X04 X05 X06 xo8 ====·=======n=== =-======-=-===·== ================ ================ ==========-====· 1981 o. 0.330738 1.58025 2.95992 1990 o. 0.244142 1.84539 6.56983 2000 o. 0.374294 0.01091 14.8401 ·==-=········-= =•=a====•====••= ========::=========== ===============-= ====·=======-==== =-=-=····==-··· ·=-=·====-====-= ==·=·==·======== ==-===·==·=-==·= ==============-= X09 X10 Xll X12 ========-==·=-= ==·=··=-====-==u: ==·==·=-==··==== ·=========·=·==· ====·==·========== 1981 4.34112 0.194561 2.64967 10.9904 1990 12.4935 0.8809 6.31252 18.3156 2000 42.4931 2.5337 13.4817 27.3174 =·===·====··-==·= -=-·=-==·=·=··== =-============== =============•=a ============-===- ·=·==:::=a======-=· ===··===-======== ··=--=========== =·==·========·== ========·==-=·=- X13 X14 X15 X16 ===-=··=-=-=--= ==-·===······-· ================ ===-============ ==-=====·-=·==-= 1981 3.50996 o. 2.46283 3.44536 1990 $.3037 o. 5.07207 7.09554 2000 23.6366 o. 11.2414 15.7261 ==-=··=·=····== ==-==··=·=··==== =•========•==a== ·==·============ =====;:•=-==-=-=== ==========·==·= =·====····====·= ===·====··====== =============-== ====•======-=·== X17 X18 Xl9 X20 1981 o. o. o. o. 1990 o. o. o. o. 2000 o. o. o. o.  Appendix D lOS Page 8 of 8 1===============1================1================1================1================1 =============== ==============;= ========~======= ================ X71 X72 y ========::====== ---------------- ================ ===~============ 1981 0.090048 1.12056 457.342 1990 o. 1.16519 834.89 2000 o. 2.27617 1540.96 --------------- ================ ================ ================ ---- The World Bank Headquarters European Office Tokyo Office 1818 H Street, N.W. 66, avenue d'Iena Kokusai Building Washington, D .C. 20433, U.S.A. 75116 Paris, France 1-1 Marunouchi 3-chome Telephone: (202) 477-1234 Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan Telephone: (I) Telex: WUI 64145 WORLDBANK 723-54.21 Telephone: (03) 214-5001 RCA 248423 WORLDBK Telex: 842-620628 Telex: 781-26838 Cable Address: INTBAFRAD WASHINGTONDC