Guinea - Agricultural Services Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY <R~. /gCT-G ;'Report No. P"4015-G1l REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED CREDIT OF SDR 7.6 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF GUINEA FOR AN AGRICULTURAL SERVICES PROJECT November 4, 1985 1Th document has a resticted dibutfio and nmy be used by recipients ody in the perfomance of their Officid dutes b otents my no otherwise be discosed without World Bank authorifaion  CURRENCY EOUIVALENTS Currency Unit Sy Syli US$1 - Sylis 250 - Sylis 1,000 US$4.00 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 meter 3.28 feet 1 square meter (n2) = 10.76 square feet 1 kilogram = 2.205 pounds (lb) 1 metric ton = 0.98 long tons 1 kilometer 0.62 miles 1 hectare = 2.47 acres ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AfDF - African Development Fund BCEP - Central Studies Office (Bureau Central d'Etudes des Projets) BSD - Bureau of Strategy and Development (Bureau de StratEgie et de Developpement) EDF - European Development Fund EEC - European Economic Community FAC - French Fund for Aid and Conperation (Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation) MDR - Ministry of Rural Development (Ministere du Developpement Rural) MPRN - Ministry of Planning and Natural Resources (Ministere d'Etat charge du Plan et des Ressources Naturelles) ONADER - Agency for Rice Development (Operation National pour le D6veloppement Rizicole) ORG - Gueckedou Rice Operation (Operation Riz Gueckedou) FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 a! The official exchange rate at appraisal in October 1984 was US$1 24.4 sylis. From October, 1985, the Guinean currency has been floating according to a market-determined rate, which on November 1, 1985 st od at US$1=265 sylis.  FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY REPUBLIC OF GUINEA AGRICUl,TURLU SERVICES PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJFCT SUHKARY Borrower: The Republic of Guinea. BeneficiRry: Ministry of Rural Development. Credit Amount: SDR 7.6 million (US$ 7.5 million equivalent). Terms: Standard Cofinancier: Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation (FAC, France) Project Description: The project would improve capabilities of the Ministry of Rural Development (MDR) in agricultural planning, strategy and policy formulation and proiect analysis. This objective would be achieved through the establishment of a Strategy and Development Office (Bureau de Strat6gie et de Developpement, BSD) in MDT, to be staffed with qualified Guinean and internationally recruited personnel. BSD would focus on: (a) the definition of agricultural strategy and policy; (b) elaboration and review of investment plans; (c) monitoring and evaluation of projects and plan objectives; (d) project identification, preparation and analysis; a-nd (e) data collection and analysis. In addition, during the project period when other ministerial services are being reorganized and strengthened, BSD would be responsible for providing logistical and institutional support for start-up activities of new rural development projects and elaborating a long term plan for agricultural research and irrigation development in the country. The project provides for (i) 25 staff-years of resident advisors, 105 staff-months of short-term consultant services, including 55 staff-months for a studv for improving the organizational structure of 'IDR and proposing a work program for HDR in all the provinces, (ii) overseas training for kev staff through short and medium-term fellowships, and (iii) construction of an office for BSD and housing, as well as vehicles, equipment, and operating costs for BSD. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.  - ii - Project Benefits: The main benefits would be training and development of staff expertise in planning, policy formulation, project preparation and evaluation, and improving agricultural data. The organizational study should lead to an improved structure of services for the rural sector. The project would also establish a functional unit in MDR that would help in and supervise this much needed reorganization of the ministry's services. Among the results should be coherent agricultural investment programs, a clear definition of rural sector strategy and policies, including long-term strategies for research and irrigation, annual production and marketing statistics, and feasibility studies. Project Risks: There are several risks associated with achieving the project's objectives. The risk that policy recommendations arising from the project would not be acted upon is minimized by the emphasis that the Government places on BSD becoming operational rapidly, while regular consultatkons between the Government and the Association i1ll Improve policy formulation of rural sector activities. Administrative delays and problems that could interfere with the project's work program are lessened by (i) the use of a single consulting firm to provide the necessary technical assistance and back-up support, with the agreement by HDR to adhere to the work programs proposed, and (ii) the proposal that BSD be given operational and financial autonomy, as an Interim term measure while the financial and administrative services of 'MDR are being reorganized. Moreover, Guinean senior staff have been designated to ensure that BSD would function adequately with the technical assistance provided.  - iii- Estimated Project Costs: Local Foreign Total US$ million-- 1. Vehicles and Equipment - 0.5 0.5 2. Construction 0.3 0.9 1.2 ILS. Operating Costs 0.5 0.7 1.2 4. Technical Assistance, Studies and Fellowships - 4.9 4.9 5. Local Personnel 0.3 - 0.3 Total Base Costs (BSD) 1.1 7.0 8.1 Physical Contingencies 0.1 0.3 0.4 Price Contingencies 0.5 1.1 1.6 TOTAL COSTS 1.7 8.4 10.1 Proposed Financing Plan Local Foreign Total -US$ million- IDA 7.5 7.5 FAC - 0.9 0.9 Government 1.7 - 1.7 Total 1.7 8.4 10.1 Estimated IDA Disbursements : FY86 FY87 FY88 FY89 FY90 FY91 FY92 US$ million Annual 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.3 Cumulative 0.9 2.0 3.5 5.1 6.4 7.2 7.5 Economic Rate of Return: Not Applicable There is no separate Staff Appraisal Report. Map: IBED 19107  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATTON TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT OF SDR 7.6 MILLION (US$7.5 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF GUINEA FOR AN AGRICULTURAL SERVICES PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed Development Credit to the Republic of Guinea for SDR 7.6 million (US$7.5 million equivalent) on standard IDA terms to help finance an Agricultural Services Project. Additional financing for the project would be provided by the Fonds d'Aide et de Cooperation (FAC, France) for an amount estimated at the equivalent of US$0.9 million. PART I - THE ECONOMY 1/ 2. An Economic Memorandum (Report No. 4690-GUI) was discussed with the Government in November 1983 and distributed to the Executive Directors ln February 1984. This section updates its contents, focusing on changes -in Guinea's economic situation and policies in recent years. More specifically, the change in Government following the death of President Sekou Toure in March 1984 has resulted in a radically different political orientation which enlarges the possibilities for close collaboration between Guinea and the Association. 3. Despite its mineral and agricultural potential, Guinea saw declining economic performance from Independence in 1958 until about 1973-74. Stimulated briefly by the mining sector, the economy grew rapidly between 1973 and 76, but subsequently slowed to a rate well below that of population growth. Today, most of Guinea's 5.8 million inhabitants live at the margin of poverty. With a per capita income of about US$300 in 1984. Guinea is among the least developed countries as classified by the United Nations. Life expectancy is only 37 years, infant mortality is about 16 percent, more than 80 percent of the population has no access to safe water, and similarly 80 percent of the adult population is illiterate. 4. In the late 1970s, Guinea began reexamining its development policies, institutions and relations with the outside world. Important 1/ This Part is identical to the President's Reports for the Gueckedou Agricultural Development and the Mineral Sector Management Projects.  - 2 - first steps were taken towards improved economic management and decentralization of the economy. However, only under a new Government, which took office in April 1984, has Guinea embarked upon a far-reaehing economic reform program (para. 16). The present Government explicitly recognizes the need for economic pricing of resources. It further recognizes the country's need for technical assistance for planning, investment programming, and project preparation and execution. State retail trade has been discontinued. Price controls have been permitted to lapse, thus liberalizing and encouraging the agricultural sector in particular. Private investment in all forms is being encouraged, including foreign direct investment and the return of expatriate Guinean capital. Private enterprises are now allowed to import and export most goods, for example, and to borrow and hold foreign exchange. Towards building up the country's human resource base and tailoring skills to the needs of the economy, primary education is to be revamped and strengthened, while enrollment in higher education has been severely reduced and vocational training expanded. Manpower planning is being introduced, and the policy of guaranteeing state employment to school graduates has been reappraised to curtail increases in public employment and the wage bill. These measures represent fundamental changes from past policies and reflect a significant and broadly based attempt to address the deep-seated problems which underline Guinea's poor economic performance. Recent Performance 5. Output of the economy is estimated to have grown at an average annual rate of ;.5 percent in real terms over the five-year period up through 1984. Although economic growth has fluctuated modestly in that period, it has consistently remained below the rate of population increase of nearly 3 percent per annum. A temporary upturn in 1982-83 was moreover narrowly based, resulting from a rise in construction activity due chiefly to preparations for the OAU conference that was to be held in Conakry in May 1984. Much of the economy produces at levels well below potential. The primary sector, while the most important in the economy (more than 40 percent of GDP), produces below potential due to inadequate price policies and other incentives. Apart from mining, secondary activity (more than 20 percent of GDP) is similarly weak. In particular, the manufacturing sector, constituted mainly of public enterprises, produces at less than 15 percent of capacity and registers heavy losses. The tertiary sector accounts for a relatively heavy 35 percent of GDP. 6. Although Guinea has consistently realized a surplus on trade account, these surpluses have been more than offset by rising net service payments and private transfer payments, important official transfer receipts notwithstanding. Net capital inflows have not been sufficient to offset the resulting current account deficits. An important factor is heavy capital flight from the country, the exact magnitude of which is unrecorded. Guinea has consequently suffered continual reductions in net foreign assets since 1979, estimated net reserves having dropped to a negative US$205 million as of end-1984. In addition, Guinea has incurred a massive accumulation of external debt arrears. At US$223 million as of end-1984, these arrears represented more than 40 percent of annual merchandise export earnings.  - 3 - 7. The Government's own financial situation has been seriously eroded since 1980, at which time it was in approximate equilibrium. The erosion is attributable chiefly to poor performance in the parastatal sector. Receipts from enterprises from taxes and customs duties on food and services in particular have declined as the private sector has grown to dominate consumer trade. Similarly, non-tax revenue in the form of trans- fers from the parastatals to the capital budget have dropped sharply, this due largely to reduced profits of IMPORTEX, the State trading company, as its de jure monopoly has been undermined by private importers. Government revenue has consequently stagnated in nominal terms at a level of GS 10-11 billion annually in all but one year over the period 1980-84. In 1984, despite drastic reductions in subsidies to public ent.rprises and a cut in capital outlays to half their level only two years earlier, the overall budgetary deficit climbed steeply to GS 3.0 billion, equivalent to nearly 30 percent of receipts. 8. Other than the enclave mining projects, most investment in Guinea is undertaken by public and parapublic institutions. During the 1973-78 development plan period, public investment amounted to a cumulative US$478 million (55 percent of planned expenditure), equivalent to 10 percent of CDP. The subsequent 1981-85 plan projected a more than doubled rate of investment and favored collectivized agriculture (31 percent) and industry (14 percent). However, actual public investment 1981-84 averaged only US$200 million per year, about the same proportion of GDP as in the previous plan exercise. Many of the proposed projects remain in preliminary stages of preparation, and their financing is unlikely. The new Government, with the help of the Association, is reassessing its project priorities. Pending the outcome of this assessment, the Government decided in April 1985 to limit investment to on-going, viable projects with assured foreign financing. Under the recently approved Technical Assistance Project for Economic Management (Credit 1559-GUI), the Government will completely revamp its public investment plan and will introduce in 1986 a three-year rolling program based on a thorough review of sector and macro priorities. 9. Recognizing the need to improve maintainance and utilization of existing capital assets, the Government has increased the proportion of its recurrent budget for equipment and supplies, including provision for an important road maintenance program partly supported by the Association. It is also undertaking a serious examination of the viability of state enterprises. The least successful ones (including the entire network of retail trade enterprises outside Conakry) are being closed down. Others have embarked on rehabilitation programs, mostly with external assistance. Restructuring of the public industrial sector has started with a major divestiture and liquidation exercise. It is intended that parastatals that remain will be financially self-sufficient, autonomous in their management, responsive to market mechanisms and receptive to technical assistance. Foreign Assistance and External Debt 10. Since the mid-1970s, Guinea has been diversifying its sources of foreign assistance through renewed ties with the Western industrialized countries and through expanded relations with Arab nations and multilateral  - 4 - institutions. Although Giiinea successfully negotiated a Stand-by with the IMF in 1982, the arrangement lapsed owing to the Government's inability to meet some of the agreed performance criteria and to reach an understanding with the Fund on exchange rate adjustment. A new Stand-by with the IMF is expected to be concluded shortly. 11. The accumulation of foreign debt to finance investment in infrastructure and public enterprises has resulted in a burden of foreign obligations which is excessive in relation to Guinea's debt servicing capacity. Outstanding public external debt reached US$1.6 billion as of the end of 1984, of which US$1.2 billion was disbursed. Service obligations on this debt are projected to average US$132 million per annum in 1985-87, as against average annual payments oI only US$83 million in the 1982-84 period. In 1984, the ratio of scheduled service obligations to export earnings was 34 percent, whereas actual service payments amounted to only 20 percent of export receipts. Moreover, scheduled debt service on private non-guaranteed debt of an estimated US$300 million outstanding represented an additional 11 percent of 1984 export earnings. 12. It is evident that Guinea's already heavy payments arrears will continue to rise substantially in the absence of a major, across-the board debt rescheduling. In the past, the Government addressed the debt problem through bilateral rescheduling and measures to improve debt management by the External Debt Department in the Central Bank, to which the Association provided technical advice as part of its economic work. Further technical assistance is underway at the Central Bank, and a request to the Paris Club and other creditors for a multilateral debt rescheduling is anticipated once an IMF Stand-by arrangement is in place, tentatively early 1986. The Government has also undertaken strict control of public borrowing abroad to ensure that it is contracted exclusively for priority investment projects and on fully concessional terms. Guinea will in fact have to rely on substantial amounts of foreign assistance on concessional terms during the next few years. This will be needed not only for investment purposes, including local cost and recurrent cost financing, but also to provide foreign exchange for intermediate and consumer goods imports which are vital to relieve supply constraints and stimulate economic activity, particularly in the rural sector. Prospects 13. Guinea's long-term development possibilities based on its agricultural, mineral and hydroelectric potential are substantial. However, given modest national savings (8.5 percent of GDP in 1984) and acute shortages of foreign exchange, the exploitation of this potential hinges on the country's ability to provide incentives to agricultural producers and to attract foreign capital for investment in mining, agro-industry and, possibly, petroleum development. 14. To correct Guinea's excessive dependence on bauxite mining for its foreign exchange, diversification of its mineral production is a key element in the country's longer-term development strategy. A new diamond mining operation was started up in 1984. Iron ore mining is a further possibility now under active investigation, as are oil exploration and development of other minerals. In the agricultural sector, following a  major Sector Review (GUI-4672, April 15, 1984) organized by the Bank with the support of several other agencies (CIDA, USAID, CCCE, IFAD, UNESCO), the Government has launched an important reform of its agricultural policies to stimulate production of cash crops for export, such as coffee and pineapples. A long-term agricultural strategy and investment program are now under preparation with the Association's assistonce. This is described more fully in Part III below. 15. These initiatives notwithstanding, Guinea will continue to face serious foreign exchange constraints through the 1980s. Prospects for foreign exchange earnings in the mining sector will remain governed by international bauxite markets, which confront a difficult outlook through at least the medium term. The downward trend in agricultural exports experienced in recent years will not be easily reversed, even with imminent correction of price distortions associated with the highly overvalued exchange rate. Similarly, expanded domestic production of foodstuffs sufficient to substitute for a significant share of Guinea's presently high level of imports can be expected to take place only over the medium term. 16. Towards realizing Guinea's longer term development potential, the Association and the IMF are assisting the Government in formulating and implementing a comprehensive economic reform program. The program aims at encouraging private sector development, notably agriculture, while at the same time increasing the efficiency of the public sector. The program indeed represents a dramatic reversal of the previous regime's economic policies in greatly reducing the Government's involvement in directly productive activity and opening up the economy as a whole to the private sector. Particularly crucial will be a major devaluation with accompanying measures to correct price distortions throughout the economy. The first steps in the devaluation have already been taken. These include the opening of a "Second Window" for limited foreign exchange operations at a market-determined exchange rate. The authorities have also tightened budgetary controls and rationalized the programming of public investment. A total overhaul of the banking system, including the liquidation of the existing specialized Government banks and the start-up of operations of foreign-assisted banking institutions will substantially improve support for trade and other private sector activity. Also underway is a broadscale public enterprise divestiture program. Finally, to alleviate its burden of external debt, Guinea plans to seek a multilateral debt rescheduling in early 1986, as mentioned in para. 12, and to limit its foreign borrowing to that which can be secured on appropriately concessional terms. 17. The Association has recently appraised a Structural Adjustment program and is assisting the Government in mobilizing the support of other donors. This support, together with an IMF Stand-by arrangement, will be crucial for Guinea in easing the balance of payments situation in a difficult transition period and in contributing to a gradual realization of the country's considerable development potential. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN GUINEA 18. The first Bank Group operation in Guinea comprised two loans in FY68 and FY71 for the profitable bauxite mining project at Bok6. This  project was followed by IDA credits in the mid-1970s for pineapple production and the rehabilitation of roads. Encouraged by the first results of these projects, the Bank Groun began to diversify and expand its lending program, based upon broad priorities agreed with the Government: (i) rehabilitation and maintenance of basic infrastructure, (ii) improvement of human resources; (iii) mining development; and (iv) development of the rural sector. IDA operations in each of these areas have placed particular emphasis on sectoral planning, institution building and training. The FY79 First Education Project was very satisfactorily implemented, and provided a sound basis for the Second Education Project, which is proceeding well. The First Power Project (FY81), co-financed with France and Germany. began the rehabilitation of the Conakry power system. Following the conclusions of the UNDP-financed Water Resources Master Plan, for which the Bank was executing agency, a Second Power Engineering and Technical Assistance Project has recently started. It would strengthen the power public utility and prepare a major hydroelectric project to meet electricity demand in the early 1990s. A Water Supply project (FY79) provides similar assistance, and was partially the precursor of the Conakry Urban Development project (FYB4), which assists the Government in managing urban growth in the capital region. A Second Water Supply Project is being proposed for Conakry and secondary centers. The Second Highway Project was successfully completed in 1984 and Highways ITI (FY84), which includes the reconstruction of the country's first priority road link, continues with a third phase of maintenance and rehabilitation under a revamped highway organization. Implementation of the renovation works under the Conakry Port Project (FY83) is also on schedule. Public enterprise rehabilitation programs under the Industrial Rehabilitation Promotion Project (FY81) have begun, although the uncertain climate for private investment before the change of Government, and the absence of functioning financial institutions, have limfrted efforts under the project to promote small and medium private enterprise. Other operations to assist efforts to promote private investment, a first IFC loan and investment for the AREDOR diamond mining company, and the Petroleum Exploration Promotion Project (FY84), have also started well despite some technical set-backs. 19. It is in the rural sector that the Government has experienced the greatest difficulty in harnessing development potential. Support for small private producers, including marketing and financial incentives, and access to modern technology and applied agricultural research, was almost nonexistent before the change of Government. Since April 1984, however, the Government and the Association have agreed on an expansion in IDA- supported agricultural operations. This hes led to the preparation of the proposed project, and also to the Gueckedou Agricultural Development Project that is being submitted simultaneously to the Executive Directors. A Livestock Rehabilitation Project is also under preparation. The Associa- tion's role in the agricultural sector is discussed in Part III. Other agricultural projects addressing the sector's institutional and training needs are being prepared in the context of a long-term program to revital- ize smallholder agriculture. 20. Bank Group operations in Guinea now include sixteen IDA Credits totalling US$202.7 million, and two Bank loans totalling US$73.5 million. Guinea's disbursement rate of 62 percent in FY84 (disbursements in relation to the undisbursed balance) compares very favorably with that of other  - 7 - countries at similar levels of per capita income and development. Its disbursement profile matches the Regional profile. 21. Current Assistance Strategy. The proposed Bank Group lending program, supported by an expanded program of economic and sector work, is based on a strategy of encouraging key policy reforms at the national, project and sector levels. These aim to improve economic mechanisms by promoting market forces, and thus would begin the structural adjustment of the Guinean economy. Support to the directly productive sectors would increase the rate of economic growth. Specific targets are: (a) provid- ing, with other donors, financing for imports needed to increase produc- tion, in support of the structural adjustment features of the overall reform program; (b) giving priority to policy-based projects that increase production, particularlv in the agricultural sector; (c) introducing technical assistance directed towards policy reforms, improved economic management a,d resource allocation; (d) improving absorptive capacity in those social and infrastructure sectors which support the productive sectors, through rehabilitation, and technical and managerial training; and (e) improving capital flows through the promotion of private direct invest- ment and increasing the level of cofinancing. Through its support for sectoral strategies and investment programs, the Association will help the Government mobilize the necessary increased financial support from other donors, and plans to organize a Consultative Croup. 22. The Association is planning to expand agricultural operations once the monetary reform has created the needed incentive structure for smallholder agriculture, in the context of a long-term strategy for agri- cultural development, which is under preparation. It is equally important for the Bank to deepen its understanding of the industrial sector through additional sector work and policy discussions, possibly leading to a second industrial rehabilitation operation once the Government has defined its industrial policy and the role of public enterprises. The Association is also providing technical advice to the Government for possible diversification of mining activities, and a mineral development project, which includes promotion of secondary minerals and further work on the proposed Mifergui-Nimba iron ore project, is ready for presentation to the Executive Directors. 23. The Bank Group's share of Guinea's disbursed external debt (public and publicly guaranteed) at the end of 1984 stood at about 11 percent, compared with 8 percent in 1981. The Bank Group's share of service on public and publicly guaranteed debt, 6.6 percent in 1980, is expected to decline to 3.5 percent by 1987. PART ITTI - THE RIRAL SECTOR 24. Guinea's rural sector has a diverse ecological base with the potential for producing a large part of the country's needs in rice and other food crops as well as producing large quantities of coffee, cotton, copra, bananas, pineapples and other fresh fruits and livestock for local consumption, processing and export. At Independence in 1958, agricultural  commodities accounted for about 58 percent of export receipts with food imports making up just about 12.5 percent of agricultural export receipts. Between 1976 and 1981, however, agriculture contributed only about 3 percent to export receipts and the value of food imports exceeded that of agricultural exports by an average of US$ 35 million per annum or 2.3 percent of GDP. At the same time food crop production has not kept pace with population increase and food imports now represent about 16 percent of total imports. Agriculture still provides a livelihood for about 80 percent of Guinea's population but with the growth of the mining sector its contribution to GDP has fallen from 46 percent in 1973 to 41 percent in 1982. 25. Rice is the dominant crop in Guinea in all regions except in the impoverished soils of Guinea's upland plateau, the Fouta Djalon, where it takes second place in area terms to small millet, "fonio" (Digitaria 9p.). Rice is Guinea's main food staple and national production is estimated at about 400,000 tons of paddy per year. Until the change in government (April 1984) and abolition of compulsory marketing through state agencies, most farmers preferred to produce for home consumption with only minor quantities going into either local parallel markets or the Government's official marketing structures. Objectives and Strategy 26. The main objectives in the rural sector, as they are evolving under the new regime are to promote cereal production for food self-sufficiency, to increase export production, and to raise the standard of living of the rural population. These objectives reflect the recommendations of the recent Agricultural Sector Review Report (No.GUI-4672) prepared by IDA. Because of several years of neglect of agriculture, a number of issues remain to be resolved to permit an expansion of rural sector activities. The main issues affecting the sector include: (i) inappropriate pricing and marketing systems for agricultural products; (ii) the complete absence of effective and functional agricultural services for farmers (such as extension, research, input supply, credit, etc.); (iii) an overstaffed Ministry with poorly trained personnel and ill-adapted structures; and (iv) lack of resources to permit a properly functioning rural development Ministry. 27. The strategy being adopted by the Government to resolve these issues is still emerging but includes measures: (a) to improve smallholder agriculture, through services and incentives to farmers and liberalizing marketing of produce; (b) to reorganize and streamline agricultural services (extension, research, credit etc.) and concentrate such services on smalbholders; (c) to improve rural infrastructure, develop the country's irrigation potential, and make agricultural inputs available to smallholders; and (d) to establish a properly functioning central ministry and develop its planning, investment review and supervision capability. These measures are being supported by the Association through the proposed project, a recently appraised structural adjustment credit (SAC), and a study of the national organization and services in the agricultural sector aimed at identifying programs for strengthening the structure and functioning of the ministry (para 28) for support by the donor community.  -9- Agricultural Services 28. Organization. Until the change in government in April 1984, three ministries were responsible for rural development in Guinea. These were the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, the Ministry of FAPAs (District Collective Farms or "Fermes Agro-Pastorales d'Arrondissement"), and the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries. Responsibility for extension activities before April 1984 was in theory shared by the Ministry of Agriculture field level staff and the FAPAs. In practice however, there was no effective extension provided to smallholders, except under the IDA-supported Rice Development Project (Cr. 952-GUI), because of the Government's emphasis on collective farms, the lack of resources for the ministry, and the inability of the FAPAs to perform even their primary role as production units. In April 1984 the Ministry of PAPAs was merged with the Ministry of Agriculture, and in an administrative reorganization in December 1984 a single Ministry of Rural Development (hDR) was created merging the Ministries of Agriculture and Livestock. This single ministry is responsible for all aspects of rural development including extension. The field level structure in all areas except the Gueckedou region, however, has not been touched and thus responsibility and functions at this level remain to be defined. Through a PPF advance that would be refinanced through the proposed Credit for the Gueckedou Agricultural Project being presented simultaneously to the Executive Directors, IDA is financing a reorganization and master plan study of MDR that would propose a work program for each of the seven provinces of the country for the next ten years and estimate the manpower and financial needs to carry out such a program. To ensure that the work program is efficiently carried out, the study would propose an organizational structure for the MDR to cover field level operations as well as to create a fully functional headquarters, and it would examine ways of privatizing as many agricultural services as possible. Another product from the study would be a recommendation on ways to integrate various externally funded projects into the organizational structure of MDR. 29. Agricultural Research. Except for recent research efforts undertaken in externally financed projects such as the ongoing Rice Development Project, agricultural research has been completely neglected in Guinea since Independence. Guinea's main research stations have been short of equipment and operating funds and all the stations have insufficient trained staff except for the stations at Baro, IalmAlo near Gueckedou, and Koba wbich are managed by the Rice Development Agency, ONADER, that was set up under the Rice Development Project (Cr. 952-GUI). In general agricultural research work in Guinea is not well coordinated since some of the stations are under the Ministry of Higher Education while others are under MDR, without any mechanism for coordinating actions under the two ministries.  - 10 - Sector Lending and Strategy 30. Lending Experience in the Sector. IDA has financed three projects in Guinea's rural sector. Their implementation was difficult under the former regime. The DaboyaJ pineapple Project (FY76) involving the development of an industrial estate with some outgrowers was completed to satisfactory technical standards. It has experienced financing and output marketing difficulties since its completion, but with the public sector reforms planned by the new Government, foreign firms will be invited to join the project entity to increase production and exports. A Rice Development Project (FY80) was designed to assist Guinea's key resource in the rural sector, smallholder agriculture. The design of the project was a novelty in that Government policy was generally to favor coLlective farming, and hence the prnject dtd not enjoy whole-hearted support in all quarters during its apprais:Il ;ind early implementation. The project had two components, a national component, ONADER, to improve rice sector planning and restart rice research, and the pilot component, Gueckedou Rice Operation, ORO, to improve swamp and upland rice productivity on some 2,700 family farms In a small part of Gueckedou region. Despite particularly- ularly difficult initial years the ORG component has been able to achieve a reasonable part of the objectives set at appraisal. The national component of the FY80 project has only been partially successful, with a consultant's study on rural incentives financed under the project serving as a key element in subsequent agricultural policy discussions, and agricultural research in the project representing the only ongoing and active research activities in the country. Management inexperience and inefficiencies, a dearth of trained national staff, and a high technical assistance staff turnover have limited ONADER's capacity to do much planning. The ORG component has however provided a development approach that has been recognized as a viable alternative to collective agriculture pursued in the past. With the new Government's commitment to improve the performance of the economy, and its emphasis on smallholders, this approach would be applied to the whole sector. A Livestock Development Project (FY81) focussed on cattle health through upgraded "eterinary services. The project was cancelled in September 1983 because of the Government's failure to dismantle the state livestock marketing agency as had been agreed under the Credit. The new Covernment has however dissolved the agency and a new Livestock Sector Rehabilitation project was appraised in April 1985. 31. Sector Strategy. In addition to the focus on smallholders, Guinea's agricultural strategy now recognizes the opportunity to introduce wide ranging policy and organizational reforms. This Is being done through the proposed project, and a SAC that is expected to be presented to the Executive Directors later this fiscal year. The main objectives of this sector strategy are to: (i) seek to increase productivity of smallholders in both food and export crop production, with an early focus on rice, coffee and fruit crops; (ii) develop satisfactory incentives for farmers; (iii) enhance the Government's capabilities for policy formulation, investment planning and project identification and preparation; (iv) improve overall organization of rural development services including manpower and structural planning of the MDR; and (v) help create effective and efficient field level support services (extension, research, data collection, monitoring and evaluation, credit, and input supply).  Project Rationale 32. The Planning Process Inherited by the New Government. The planning process in Guinea has been a combination of decentralized project preparation and centralized planning, with the technical ministries concentrating on project preparation. In practice, there has been little sectoral or sub-sectoral planning within the technical ministries. Detailed project preparation has been undertaken usually only when projects were expected to be submitted for donor finance, and generally with heavy donor involvement. To date there has been no program planning and only the beginnings of sector investment programs, generally, again, at donor urging. Under the previous and highly centralized government, once the Plan, prepared by the Directorate-General of Planning and Statistics (DGPS), was adopted by political bodies, projects were examined for conformity with its largely non-economic objectives, although sometimes review of the economic justification of project proposals was made. Most often, once the Central Studies Office (Bureau Central d'Etudes des Projets, BCEP, an agency that was attached to the Presidency before its dissolution in January 1985), was to review the economic and institutional aspects of projects, and the technical ministry responsible for preparation and execution of a project submitted it to the Council of Ministers for approval, projects had already reached a very advanced stage and were near approval or negotiation with potential donors or suppliers. The Association's Technical Assistance Project for Economic Management (Credit 1559-GUI, SDR 9.7 million, FY85) aims to place planning and economic management on a more systematic basis, in particular by reinforcing the planning and statistics capabilities of the Ministry of Planning and Natural Resources. 33. The planning unit of the MDR, like all other technical ministries, has a very low capacity to undertake studies and develop strategy. It has hence been little involved in formulating rural sector policies or preparing new projects for the sector. It lacks statistics on the rural sector and does no systematic gathering of information. This greatly hampers efforts to adequately plan activities. Besides, rural sector projects are frequently proposed by equipment suppliers, consulting firms and potential private partners with a commitment to obtain financing or to provide management services with little or no involvement of the ministry's planning unit. This unit, which should normally review such projects, does not have the capacity to do so. There is also a scarcity of adequately trained personnel, office space, office equipment, basic supplies and reference material, which has a detrimental effect on working conditions. 34. Much will need to be done to bring the performance of the staff of the MDR up to the standard needed to mount a sustained development effort. The secrecy and absolute centralization of decision-making practiced by the former regime did not permit staff development and training. There are cases of long-term personnel that have received no on-the-job training, formal upgrading or training courses to improve their skills. Large numbers of younger staff, recent graduates of the universities in Guinea, have few years of experience and have never worked in an efficient, functioning administration. This scarcity of experienced and skilled personnel is aggravated by the lack of a systematic approach to  - 12 - problem solving, and to work generally. and a lack of motivation resulting from low salaries and unavailability of the means with which to work. Through the Techni..l Assistance Credit, and in support of the structural adjustment prograni. el-forts are being made to improve economic performance in general and to upgrade the skill levels in the core economic management ministries in particular. The proposed project would help improve the skill level of an Important unit in the MDR and help Government realize the objectives it has set Itself. 35. Rationale for the Proposed Project. Through the Rice Development Project's ONADER component (para. 30), the Association became actively involved in technical assistance at the ministry level. This has included a national study on rural prices and incentives, development of three research stations and, following the Government change, the involvement of ONADER staff (both local and expatriate) in ministry activities especially in socio-economic studies, strategy development and investment review. The above rural incentives study (para. 28), which formed the basis for a comprehensive Agricultural Sector Review Report by the Association, has helped the Government orient its policy in the sector. The Government is therefore seeking to strengthen agricultural project selection, and development of organizational and institutional strategy. IDA's experience in the sector, coupled with its recent focus on sector work as well as the productive macro-zcononic discussions IDA has had with the Government, have created a sound basis for IDA support for improving the performance of MDR. The proposed project fits in well with Guinea's strategy for the rural sector and would help Government and other donors identify and remove the bottlenecks to the sector's sustained development. PART IV - THE PROJECT 36. The proposed project is in part a follow-up of the national Rice Development Agency (ONADER) component of the Rice Development Project (Cr. 952-GUI, FY80) and in part a technical assistance project stemming from the need to improve the planning and evaluation capacity of the Ministry of Rural Development (MDR). It was prepared by the Government and IDA staff and appraised In October 1984, together with the Gueckedou Agricultural Development Project. Negotiations were held in Washington on August 1, 1985 with a delegation led by Mr Tolo Bavogui, Guinea's Ambassador to the United States. There is no separate Staff Appraisal Report. Supplementary project data appear in Annex III. Project Objectives and Description 37. The project would assist the Government to improve the capacity of the MDR in rural sector planning, strategy and policy formulation and project analysis. Tt expands on the objectives set for ONADER in the Rice Development Project by absorbing ONADER into the studies unit of MDR, the Bureau of Strategy and Development (BSD), an appropriately staffed and equipped core unit, that will serve as the main advisory body for the Minister of Rural Development. The project would also follow up the research and rural works components of the Rice Development Project by developing long-term research and irrigation programs for the sector and  - 13 - providing back-up technical, supervisory and logistic support for new projects and especially for a pilot rice development program in the Koba region of maritime Guinea, to be financed by the European Development Fund (EDF). While conceived as a follow-up operation to the ONADER component of the Rice Development Project, the scope of the proposed project is substantially wider and covers the rural sector as a whole, not just rice. To ensure that all reasonable recommendations are acted upon quickly, the Government has agreed to regularly consult with IDA on the outputs that BSD would produce (Annex V). 38. The main components of the project would be training of Guinean staff and the establishment of BSD. Training would be on the job and through seminars and short- and medium-term fellowships (para. 47). The Immediate objectives of BSD would be to develop rural sector strategy and policies, to plan and review investments, to identify and help prepare new projects, to collect and analyze agricultural data, to monitor and evaluate ongoing rural sector activities and to provide logistic and some technical support for new rural development projects. In the first three years, as the Gcvernment tries to reorganize and improve the performance of the various technical departments of MDR, the BSD would elaborate a long-term strategy for development of agricultural research and small-scale irrigation and would monitor the rural sector activities of the MDR and other ministries. One of the first activities of the BSD would be to review the PPF-financed reorganization and master plan study (para. 28), prepare a work program and timetable for implementing the recommendations of the study and a first three-year tranche of rural sector investments. The work program with proposals for restructuring agricultural services in the country would be discussed with IDA before September 30, 1986. Aside from financing resident specialists, consultants, fellowships, vehicles and equipment and other operating costs, the project provides for construction of housing for the resident experts and office space including a modest training centre for BSD. The Government has already allocated some land in Conakry for the construction. 39. Strategy and Policy Planning and Development: The project provides for an expatriate specialist in rural sector planning, to assist the staff of BSD in developing a strategy for the sector, defining policies, and elaborating an investment plan. A Planning Division within BSD would be responsible for this activity and would coordinate with other BSD Divisions and the Technical Departments of MDR in developing the strategy. More specifically, the project would finance the expatriate plus the operating costs of the division for four years. The Division would define an agricultural sector strategy and propose policies affecting, inter alia, prices, marketing, food and export crop production, input distribution, small-scale irrigation, livestock and forestry development, according to a timetable to be agreed with the Association before June 30, 1986. The Planning Division would coordinate the preparation and revision of the agricultural part of the three-year rolling investment program to be agreed on between IDA and the Government under the Technical Assistance Project (Cr. 1559-GUI, FY85). The expert would have responsibility for coordinating the activities of the other technical divisions in BSD, and for training appropriate Guinean counterparts assigned to this Division.  - 14 - 40. Project Identification and Evaluation: The project provides for a resident agricultural economist for four years to help and train BSD staff in identifying and preparing new projects and in analyzing and reviewing investment proposals. This specialist would support the work-program of BSD's Projects Division that would be responsible for the economic and financial analysis of the projects to be included in the rolling investment program (para. 39). Working closely with BSD's Planning Division and the Ministry of Planning and Natural Resources (MPRN), the Projects Division would review the sector investment program emerging from the PPF-financed study and would prepare for discussion with IDA by December 31, 1986 a summary analysis of all rural sector projects in execution and planned to start before 1988 together with a timetable for analyzing the benefits and costs of those projects. The Division would also update annually the rural sector projects included in the three year rolling investment program agreed to under the IDA financed Technical Assistance Project. 41. Monitoring and Evaluation: The project would finance a resident specialist for three and a half years, vehicles and equipment and the operating costs of a Monitoring and Evaluation Division within BSD. The main activity of this Division would be to assist in the establishment of monitoring and evaluation (M&E) units within projects, help train the staff of such units in the required M&E systems, and assist the units to prepare their work programs, and supervise the execution of such work-programs. The M&D division would prepare, in consultation with project directors, and discuss with the Association before June 30, 1987, a simple manual (to be updated periodically) to be used by projects to prepare management information systems. The M&E systems would facilitate the preparation of work programs, enable physical and financial progress to be monitored and project reporting to be improved. The activity of the M&E Division would be geared towards standardizing M&E methodologies by introducing simple and straightforward criteria for monitoring rural development projects. Together with BSD's Statistics Division (para. 42), the H&E Division wouid provide technical support to Project M&E Units in survey design and data collection methodologies. As part of its task the M&E Division would also be responsible for preparing project completion reports, analyzing what impact, if any, projects have had on the economy in general and the concerned subsector or area in particular. 42. Statistics and Data Collection: The project would provide BSD with a full-time agro-statistician and would incur for three and a half years, the operating costs of a Statistics Division. Consultant sociologists and statisticians on shorter assignment would support the work program of the Division as necessary. The initial activity of the Division would be to define a work-program, to be agreed on with the Association before December 31, 1986, for statistical activities and methods for MDR based on identified data needs that would permit the collection of useful production, marketing and price statistics. Based on the work program, the Division would begin sample surveys aimed at producing a first set of estimates for agricultural production and cultivated area by June 30, 198B. To prepare staff for the start of the statistics work, two Guinean agro-economists would be sent abroad on a one year statistics training course during the first project vear.  - 15 - 43. Agricultural Research and Small-Scale Irrigation Strategy: During the first three years, the Project will provide MDR's Research and Rural Engineering Departments with an expatriate researcher and an expatriate rural engineer to help develop long-term strategies and plans for research and small-scale irrigation development. Under a bilateral agreement with Government, FAC has agreed to provide the researcher and the rural engineer. Though the two specialists would work directly witb the Research and Rural Engineering Departments of MDR. they would receive administrative and logistical support, in the form of vehicles and operating expenses, from BSD. With the assistance of these experts, the two departments would make a detailed inventory of existing research and minor irrigation activities in the country and propose ways of better organizing these. The Research Department would be required to establish before June 30, 1987 the current agricultural production pattern and potential of the various ecological zones, and determine the status of agricultural .-esearch, its structure and accomplishments as well as availability of and needs for human and material resources and facilities, both in the short- and medium-term. Following the PPF-financed reorganization and master plan study (para. 28) which would also develop a strategy for improving agricultural services, and taking into account the recommendations resulting from the detailed inventory, the Government would discuss with the Association its long-term research and small-scale irrigation strategy, including a work program for identifying and preparing a national research program and instituting hydrological and meteorological data collection systems to determine, before December 31, 1987, the potential for irrigation development. 44. Logistical Support for New Projects: In the Rice Development Project (Cr. 952-GUI), ONADER was responsible for project management and as such has served as a useful support service for the Gueckedou Rice Operation, ORG, which was executing a pilot rice component of the project at Gueckedou, some 700 km from Conakry. It also provided some technical back-stopping for ORG and the three research stations financed under the Rice Development Project. Under the proposed project, as ONADER becomes part of BSD, it is intended that BSD should provide some logistical and technical support for new projects being implemented. The technical support would come in the form of support for Monitoring and Evaluation and missions by the various technical divisions to ongoing projects. Logistical support would however depend on the needs for each individual project and would have to be discussed between BSD and the projects on a case by case basis. It would, in general, involve administrative support for procurement, finance, and communications. The Government would however establish before March 31, 1986 fairly standard criteria for all new projects on the form that BSD logistical support would take. 45. One such new project in which a logistical support and supervisory role for BSD is envisaged is the Koba pilot project (a rice area development project) in the maritime region of Guinea to be financed by the European Development Fund (EDF). The IDA-assisted Rice Development Project financed a research station at Koba. Though the research results were somewhat disappointing, enough was learnt about applicable technical packages for the region to permit the start of a pilot rehabilitation program of a sweet water plain and extension activity on mangrove rice. EDF has decided to finance this pilot program and continue the research  - 16 - activities started in the Rice Development Project. Given the importance of developing rice production in the maritime region, in view of its proximity to Conakry, the main rice consuming centre, the Government has asked BSD to provide logistical and technical support, through monitoring and evaluation, research and irrigation development back-up for the Koba pilot project. The technical divisions would supervise and contribute to the Koba pilot project. From time to time, IDA supervision missions would visit the pilot project and other projects BSD is asked to monitor, to assess progress. To ensure that BSD's project support capacity is not overloaded, IDA would review BSD's annual work program each year (para 50). 46. Consultants and Studies: The project provides for a total of 105 staff-months of consultant time (of which 55 staff-months have been used in the PFF-financed reorganization and master plan study (para. 28)), 20 staff-months to prepare a master plan for the agro-industrial sector and 30 staff-months for specialist consultants. The latter would be in training (para. 47), sociology, fisheries, forestry, irrigation and other areas. The consultant study on the agro-industrial sector, which would be done in collaboration with the Government Office for the Promotion of Agro-Industry attached to MPRN, would be carried out under terms of reference and a plan of execution satisfactory to the Association. 47. Training Component: The project provides for 15 staff-months of consultant time for training. A training consultant would visit the project each year to prepare and help implement a program of technical and professional training linked directly to the work program (Annexes V and VI). In addition FAC, in its bilateral agreement with the Government, would provide a full-time trainer for MDR. Though not attached to BSD, the trainer would assist it in planning and organizing its training courses. Other technical experts would be invited to give seminars on specific areas related to BSD work. All resident specialists would also be required by their terms of reference to participate actively in the training programs, and to prepare Guinean staff for taking over from them before their tour of duty ended. A training plan is provided in Annex VI. The training component would also finance 15 medium-term fellowships of about a year each and about 60 months of short-term fellowships of a few weeks to three months, which would be agreed with IDA, to complement the in-country and on-the-job training being provided. The Government would ensure that Guinean staff benefitting from the project's medium-term fellowship program continue to work in BSD or MDR for at least two years after they return. The project construction program provides for an office building with a training centre attached for BSD. The detailed preparation and supervision of the studies and overseas training programs would be carried out with the assistance of the resident specialists financed under the project. Thev would be subject to prior approval by the Association based on supporting documentation that would include a detailed justification, plan of execution, and supporting services. Project Organization and Execution 48. The Government has formally established BSD, by merging ONADER and the existing studies unit of MDR and has set out its organization, including its divisional structure and responsibilities. A director for BSD has already been appointed and is in post. The Government has identified a suitable area in Conakry for the construction of BSD offices and housing for the project. The signing of the ministerial arrete  * 1 7 - confirming the allocation of land to BSD would be a condition of Credit effectiveness. The present staff of ONADER will continue its project management role under the ongoing Rice Development Project (Cr. 952-GUI) which is expected to be completed by December 31, 1985. MDR is presently undergoing a reorganization of its administrative and financial services. Until this reorganization is completed, the Government would give BSD operational and financial autonomy. The director of BSD would be responsible for the day to day running of the project and would normally report to the Secretary General of tne Ministry, who as the most senior civil servant in the new organizational structure of MDR is responsible for strategy development, general ministry administration and ensuring implementation of the policies of the Ministry. 49. In the recent reorganization of ministries in Guinea, all services dealing with rural development were consolidated into a single Ministry of Rural Development, with three state Secretaries, responsible for Agriculture and Livestock, Fisheries, and Forestry. The studies units that existed under the different ministries before the consolidation would be regrouped into one. The organizational structure of BSD would take account of the new ministerial structure and would include staff from the various sub-sectors to cover all aspects of rural development. The pro- posed Livestock Sector Rehabilitation Project (para. 30) would provide for consultants to support specific livestock sector studies. BSD would be responsible for preparing and organizing all rural sector-related studies. 50. BSD would have five main Divisions, an Administrative and Financial Division and four Technical Divisions (paras. 39-42). The Administrative and Financial Division would have two units, one Tesponsible for administration and finance and the otber responsible for logistic support to new projects, such as the Koba pilot project. A resident expatriate financial administrator would assist the Division. The four Technical Divisions would be responsible for strategy, policy planning and development, project identification and investment review, monitoring and evaluation, and statistics. The planning specialist (para. 39) would coordinate the activities of the technical divisions, while the Director of BSD and those of Agricultural Research and Rural Works (Genie Rural) Departments in MDR would prepare and agree on the work programs to be carried out by the resident researcher and irrigation engineer within those two departments of MDR. BSD would prepare an annual work program and budget for those departments as well as for the researcher and irrigation engineer and send these to IDA before the beginning of each financial year. Implementation and progress reporting for project activities would be the direct responsibility of the BSD director. 51. Resident specialists would be provided by a consulting firm. Detailed terms of reference for the specialists (Annex IV) were confirmed at negotiations along with the work program for BSD (Annex V). To avoid delays in selecting a firm, the Government sent out invitation letters in October 1985 to six consulting firms and would select a firm before the end of 1985. The signing of a contract with an acceptable consulting firm to provide the technical assistance would be a condition of Credit effective- ness. Skill requirements of Guinean staff have been identified and the numbers and composition of key personnel in each of the divisions were agreed at negotiations. Key Guinean staff have been named. The Association's approval of contracts for the resident specialists would be  - 18 - subject to the Government having made available the required key Guinean professional and support staff. Project Costs and Financing 52. The total cost of the project (Annex VII), net of taxes and duties (from which it would be exempt) is estimated at US$10.1 million equivalent. Physical and price contingencies would constitute 25 percent of total base costs, which have been prepared in July 1985 prices. The proposed IDA Credit of US$7.5 million would cover the foreign cost of the project less the costs (about US$0.9 million equivalent) of the two specia- lists being provided by FAC (a rural engineer and a research agronomist). The Government would meet all local costs, US$1.7 million equivalent. The Government contribution includes staff salaries and allowances equivalent to US$0.5 million. Allowances for local staff equivalent to 20 percent of their base salaries have been included to cover travel and overtime. 2/ Procurement and Disbursement 53. The Government would select the consulting firm to supply the technical assistance personnel in accordance with IDA Guidelines. All terms of reference, qualifications and contracts would be subject to prior approval by the Association. Construction of the housing and offices for BSD (US$1.3 million) expected to be pre-fabricated material, and purchase of vehicles (US$0.4 million) would be subject to international competitive bidding, following IDA guidelines. Procurement of spare parts, furniture and office equipment and supplies would follow limited international tendering (US$1.0 million). A table detailing procurement arrangements is in Annex VIII. 54. The proposed Credit would be disbursed against 100 percent of foreign exchange costs of the consulting services and training programs, studies and fellowships (US$4.9 million equivalent), vehicles, equipment, furniture and spare parts (US$1.4 million equivalent), 75 percent of the total cost of civil works (US$0.9 million equivalent), and 60 percent of the total cost of fuel and lubricants (US$0.3 million equivalent). The Government would make explicit provision in its annual budgets for funds sufficient to support the project's Guinean staff and associated other project costs. US$500,000 of the proposed Credit would remain unallocated. The disbursement projections are based on the disbursement profile for West Africa technical assistance projects, modified to the extent that certain 2/ The project costs have been calculated on the basis of 250 sylis to the US dollar. Price contingencies have been incorporated on the following basis: on all foreign costs, 7.5 percent for 1986, and 8 percent for 1987-90; for local personnel costs, 27 percent for 1986 and 10 percent for 1987-90; for local goods and services, 20 percent for 1986 and 12 percent for 1987-90. The local price contingencies were calculated to reflect the impact of the devaluation of the syli on local prices. Physical contingencies of 10 percent on all non-personnel costs have been included.  - 19 - disbursements are expected to occur earlier, given of the reimbursement of the PPF advance, the advanced status of project start-up activities (selection of consultants), and the generally favorable project performance and disbursement experience in Guinea. Accounts, Audit and Reporting 55. BSD would establish and maintain consolidated project accounts for all expenditures under the proposed project. Prior to project effectiveness, the project local currency account would be established in a local commercial bank and an initial contribution in local currency equivalent to US$100,000 made into it. It would be replenished at least quarterly. A foreign currency Special Account of US$100,000 for the purchase of vehicle spare parts and other items, and for the foreign costs of fellowships and short-term consultant visits, would also be established, and replenislL-d by IDA upon presentation of supporting documentation. These accounts and supporting records would be audited annually by auditors acceptable to IDA and audited reports would be submitted promptly to the Association. Preparation by an audit firm, under the Rice Development Project (Cr. 952-GUI), of an internal management control, basic accounting and progress reporting system for ONADER, finished in July 1985. The new accounting system has been set up in ONADER and would be applied in BSD. An expatriate financial controller would supervise the implementation of this system and the training of Guinean personnel in its use. In addition to annual audit reports, BSD would also submit a semi-annual progress report on the physical and financial performance of the project, and its institutional impact on MDR. The content and form of these reports, which would be reviewed by the Association, were agreed at negotiations. Benefit and Risks 56. The main benefits of the proposed project would be the training and development of staff expertise in policy formulation, planning, investment review, project preparation and evaluation, and the collection of agricultural statistics. BSD would be an important unit in the reorganization of the Ministry, serving as the main body that would plan the steps of the reorganization and advise the Minister on the actual process of implementation. The strengthening of the studies and planning unit of the Ministry of Rural Development should help introduce a more systematic approach to rural development despite the fact that it is only a first step in a long process of strengthening the whole Ministry. 57. Expected Results. The project should lead to the definition of a coherent strategy for rural sector and policies affecting prices, market- ing, credit, and input distribution. It would produce an investment program for the rural sector that would be included in the national invest- ment program and introduce a manual on monitoring and evaluation of projects in execution. The first set of estimates of agricultural productiun and marketing statistics would be produced under the project, for the 1987/88 crop year and regularly thereafter. Statistical methods would be refined in the light of experience. The project would also help the Government identify research and small-scale irrigation needs, and prepare long term strategies fcr research and irrigation and a master plan for agro-industrial development. The organizational study should lead to  - 20 - an improved structure of services in the rural sector, a work program for each of the provinces and, an estimate of the manpower and financial needs of a restructured MDR to carry out its work program. In general, these accomplishments should permit the Government to define its rural sector investment strategy and elicit donor support for its implementation. 58. Four main risks are associated with achieving the project's objectives. One is that policy recommendations arising from the project would not be acted upon rapidly. This risk is minimized by the fact that the Government places great importance on the future development of agri- culture, and hence on the organization and functioning of MDR and on the formulation of coherent sector policies. The Government has also agreed that it would regularly consult with IDA concerning the policy recommenda- tlons made by BSD. A second risk is that of delays or difficulties in providing and ensuring continuity in technical assistance personnel. This risk is lessened by the requirement that the Government select a consulting firm before Credit effectiveness that can provide needed back-up support, and by the provision that the Government give BSD operational and financial autonomy until MDR's reorganization is completed A third risk is that with the merger of the two former ministries dealing with rural development, Livestock and Fisheries, and Forestry and Agriculture into a single Ministry of Rural Development, certain subsectors such as Fisheries and Forestry may not receive as much priority as Agriculture and Livestock. While this may occur initially, staff from all the subsectors are included in the BSD and, as necessary, consultants would be used to ensure coverage for the various activities. The fourth risk surrounds the project's staff development and training objectives. All technical assistance staff would be required by their terms of reference to ensure systematic training of Guinean staff working with them. The project's fellowship program is also designed to broaden the horizons of the Guinean staff working in the project. PART V - RECONMENDATION 59. I am satisfied that the proposed Credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association and recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Credit. A.W. Clausen Washington, D.C. President November 4, 1985 Attachments  - 21- ANNEX I TABLE 3A , L eL of 6 I: -SOCIAL, mICArnF 0*194 UNIty M, A euis susuuacamups suxanno avmsi^sj ~ IIIT CnT MEONT ERTINATE) f ,.0a 397~~~~ MCIII? ~LOW InCmi AFRICA NIBBLE105 19MQ! t 19701-b :CthiAST&L! OUTNI OF f*hARA AFRicA oP SAHA AMA (TUSAND. 00 TOTAL 243.9 235.9 243.9 AGRICULTURAL 44.0 85.7 43.7 SWM CAPTA CUSS) .. .. 300.0 23.8 1063 (KILOCRAS OF OIL EOUIVALENT) 35.0 38.0 54.0 82.3 M1.5 puPuATjmm- vitaL UTTS1TIC POPULATEON.HID-MAN (THOUSAINDS) 3I30.0 8430.0 1830.0 URBL POULATION (I OF TOTAL) 9.9 13.9 28.0 20.1 32.o POPULATION nownzrous POULATION iN YTAR 2000 (HILL) .3 STATIONA POPULATION (HILL) 25.0 POPULATION 1T . POPULLTon oesEIr PER SQ. KM. *,.1 10.3 23.7 33.2 65.3 vn sq. un. cl. LAND 87.5 91.2 125.0 112.8 124.8 PuLATION A TUCTURE (I) 0-13 IRS 42.0 42.5 43.6 48.0 43.6 15-4 iRS 55.1 54.6 53.2 30.5 51.5 5 AND AOVE 2.8 2.8 3.1 1.9 2.7 POUATION GROWIH ATE (I) TOTAL 3.3 3.5 2.0 2.8 2.9 UBAl 7.0 4.9 3.1 6.4 5.1 CRUE BIRTH RATE (PER THOS) 46.0 46.0 47.0 47.2 47.0 CRuoe DATH BATE (PER THOUS) 30.3 26.9 26.7 17.8 15.0 GROSS REPRODUCrTON RATZ 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.2 FAMILY PLAIWING ACCEPORS. L (mOS) .. USERS (2 OF HARIED ) . 1.0 / 3.3 84 wow ns am mmc INEn OF FOOD PRO. PER CAPITA (i99-71-100) 97.0 101.0 88.0 83.3 02.9 flR CAPITA SUMT OF CALORIES (1 oF RUIMNTS) 70.0 79.0 SD 87.7 96.5 PROTEINS ( MS PEM DAT) 34.0 37.0 38.0 51.9 33.4 or WHICH A1NWL AND PULSE 7.0 6.0 7.0 /c 16.7 16.5 CHILD (AMUS 1-4) DEATH RATE 57.7 46.3 38.0 23.1 16.6 LIFE EXPECT. AT 31RTH (TEARS) 34.7 35.4 37.3 47.8 52.0 INFANT NT. RATE (PER TRHS) 207.5 106.5 158.0 119.3 108.5 ACCESS TO SAFE WATE (EP) TOTAL 17.0 /d 27.1 42. URBAN 68 .0 69.0 *3.5 67.5 RUItAL 2.0 E 19.3 353. ACCESS TO ECRZTA DISPOSAL CZ OF POPULATION) TOTAL 13.0 13.0 Id 2685 26.9 URBAN . 70.0 54.0 7i 65. 57.7 RURAL .0 1.0 71d 20.8 20.7 POPULATION PER PHTSICIAN 33770.0 33510.0 17110.0 /c 27901.7 11191.7 POP. PER NURSI PRSON 4040.0 2220.0 2570.0 7- 3303.4 2459.8 OP. PER HOSPITAL SED TOrAL 1410.0 870.0 860.0 /1 1273.4 981.1 URBA 260.0 240.0 400.07; 423-2 368.8 RUtRAL 2760.0 960.0 760.0 E 3292.3 4371.9 A1IISSIOVS PER HOSPITAL BED 16.0 27.2 -S : AVZRAGE SIZE o HOUSEHOLD TOTAL .. .. URBA .. ...... RURAL . .. .. AVERAGE NO. OF PERSONS/ROH TOTAL URI TURAL .. .. .O.. mcEnQTACC or oweLLIlles wITN QecT- URBAN .. .s RURA .. ...  - 22 - ANNEX I T A L C4 n o aof 6 GUINUA - IOCIAL I0 pICA0ES C M A 1 GUXIIA Una: e (NO" mcr uArm) v UCDT LOW INCOU ARICa L I@Ulb sm&*aFINAT"T& 3OTN11IP 0ANARA ARlICA S. or BANAR mmcaua. ADJUSTgD ENROLIET RATIOS PEIN4RY: TOTAL 30.0 33.0 33.0 I 47.3 35.1 HALE 3U.0 45.0 44.0 7 77.4 100.0 LCMZ 13.0 21.0 22.0 54.9 63.2 SECONDARYi TOTAL 2.0 13.0 4 .0 id 13.5 17.2 HALE 3.0 21.0 23.0 17.9 25.0 FcALE * 5.0 9.0 9.1 14.3 VOCATIONAL (I OF SECONDA) 21.7 3.2 2.7 8 13.2 5.9 PUUIL-TEACIL RTAIO PRIMARY 4.0 44.0 34.0 / 44.9 41.1 SECOIDAR! 24.0 23.0 24.0 27.4 2S.5 PASSUOICR CABS/THOUSAND POP 1.4 2.2 .. 3.3 20 RADIO *ZCZIR/OUSAmND FoM 10.2 20.3 23.3 55.3 107. TV RECsIvYII/TUOUSAND roP .. .. 3. 2.4 20. NEUSPAPER ("DAILY O0IERAL IITCRCST) CIRCULATION PCX THOUSAmND POPULAT10 0.2 1.1 3.7 L 5.0 1UJ CINEM ANUIAL ATTENANCCAPITA .. .. .. 0.5 0.4 LAMO POCRG TOTAL LAB FORCM (THO1US) 1910.0 2140.0 2527.0 IEIA, (PERCENT) 40.4 40.3 41.6 34.2 3.2 AGRICULTURE (PERCEfT) U.0 65.0 *2.0 j 77.5 54.5 INWSTRY (PCRCENT) 4.0 6.0 11.0 d 9.7 12.3 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 49.6 47.7 43.3 39.3 36.8 NALE 59. 57.4 52.2 50J9 *7. FEMALE 39.9 38.1 35.3 28.1 27.2 ECcoNOIc DEENDENcr RATIO 0.9 3.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 iUcm DISIIZMTT PERcgET or PRIVATE INCO RZCEIVED Bo HIGEST 5X OF HOUSCIOLDS .. .. .. .. IGHEST 20X Or S .. ..U....D LOWEST 20X or HOUSEHOISS .. LOWEST 4O2 OF HOUSEHOLD ... ESTIMATED ABSOLUrE POVERTY 7C LEMVL (USS PER CAPITWA URBUN .. .. .. 275.5 50.7 RURAL .. .. .. 95.0 275.3 ESTDIATED RELATIVE FOVEr? lI LEVEL (USS PER CAPITA) URBAN .. .. 70.0 113.1 545.4 tURAL .. .. .. 67.6 201.1 ESTIMATED POP. BELOW ABSOLUTE pOVCRTY INCOWE LEVEL (Z) URAN .. .. .. 14.4 .. . RURAL .. .. .. 61. MOT AVAILABL HOTr AIPLCAE NOTE S /a The group averegea for Gacb iedXcato are poPulatiJo-Ubted ariC mCic Mm"n. Cowerag of co"atiaa amool the indicatota depanda on availablity Of dta Sn 18 not wUOme. /b UDlel1 otberwi.e noted. "Dat. jor 1960, refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; 'Dat for 1970" be 1969 and 1971; and data for "INot 3Acat gtiucmt" between 1931 end 1983. /c 1977; Id 1980; ie 1976; /f 1973; /R 1979. JUIN. 19S5  -23- ANNEX I - 2__________-____._ Page 1 of 6 DEFINITIONS OF SOCIAL INDICATORS Nomn Althoughthe data aredranfrom sourtgeterallyjudged themos authormavend relabl. .t shouldsalobenosed that they ma) nol bCe inttrrtlonlt compnrbe becase r tshe ck of standardied deltions and eonceptl used by differtm countrtes sm collcting she data The daut r. nontheless useful to dcnibe orden of magnitude, inadic trends, and ciaractenrue cenamn major differetn between countis The refetence groups ste Ill the sawe countr group of ihe subject coututry and 12) a country group wilh asewwhli higher average income than the counit) group ot the subct country lexp tor "Hight Income Oil Eporten- group when -Middl Income North Arfca and Middle Es" is chosen because sronget omtoi-culsural alintines) In the reference group data the mavr a *rc population weighed anibmetc means for eacth indicator and shown onlh then mae. it) of the countrint ma group has data for thait ducator Sine ihecoverae ofcountries among the indiators depeds onthe availabilit) ordais and is not uniform caution must bt extrcised in relating average o one indicator to another Thee averages are onlb useful in companng the slue of one indicIaor at a rnie ittn; ihe country and reerence groups AREA (thousand sq.km.) Cruk Birth Rate (per thotsaad_ -Number of live births in the year Toral-Total surface area comprising land area and inland waters; per thousand of mid-year population. 1960. 1970. and 1983 data 1960 1970 and 1983 data. Crade Death Rote (per thasdi-Number of dcaths in the year Agrleural--Estumate of agricultural arca used temporarily or per thousand of mid-year population: 1960. 1970. and 1983 data permanently for crops. pasturcs, market and kitchen pgrdens or so Gmts Repndaien Rar-Average number ofdaughters a woman lie falUow. 1960. 1970 and 1982 data. will ber in her normal reproductive period if she experiences present age-specific fertility rates: usually five-year averages ending GNP PER CAPITA (IUSS-NP per capita cstimates at currcnt in 1960, 1970. and 1983 market prices. calculated bv same conversion method as World Fomil; Plaainq-Accepsors. Anima fsheusaosf-Annual num- Bank Atlas (1981-83 basis), :913 data ber ofacceptors ofbarh-control devices under auspices ornational ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA-Annual apparent family planning program. consumption of commercial primary energy icoal and lignite. &i.iy Plaaig-User (pereet of arried woses)-The percen- petrolcum. natural gas and hydro-. nuclear and geothermatl elec- tage of married women of child-bearing age who are practicing or trictty) in kilograms of oil equivalent per capita: 1960. 1970. and whose husbands are practwicng any form of contraception VWomen 1982 data, of child-bearing age are generally women aged 15-419. although for some countnes contraceptive usage is measured for other age POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS groups. Toral Pwpalarla. Mid- Yea (hoausaudsls-As of July 1: 1960. 1970. FOOD AND NUTRMON and 1983 data. k a (perx ofFeed Prodweia PerCapes (1969-71- 100)-Index of per po Puon;differ ment d fefio of urban a urban to total capita annual production of all food commodities. Production population. different definitions of urban amas may affect compar- excludes animal feed and seed for agriculture Food commoditiema ability of data among countries. 1960. 1970. and 1983 data. include pnimary commodities (e.g. sugareane instead of sugari POpltin Projections which are edible .and contain nutrients te g coffee and tea are Popultion at year 2000-The projction of population for 2000. excluded); they compnse cereals. root crops. puiscs, oil oieds. made for each econom) separatelv. Starting with inforTation on vegetables. fruits. nuts. sugarcane and sugar beets. litestock. and total population by age and sex. fertility rates. mortality rates, and livestock products Xgregatc production of each country is based international migration in the base year 1980. these parameters on national averace producer price weights. 1961-65. 1970. and were projected at five-year intervals on the basis of generalized 1982 data. assumptions until the population becamc stationary. Per Carpit Suppty of Calrie (percent of requirrmnrts)-Comput- Ssartonarr populatown-Is one in which age. and sex-specific mor- ed from calorie equivalent of net food supplies avadlable in country tality rates have not changed over a long period. while age-specific per capita per day. Available supplis compnse domestic produc- fertilitv rates have simuhianeously remained at replacement level lion. imports less espons. and changes in stock. Net supplies (net reproduction rate - Ii. In such a population. the birth rate is exclude animal feed. ieeds for use in agriculture. quantities used an constant and equal so the death rate. the age structure is also food processing. and losses an distnbution Requirement) were constant. and the growth rate is zero The stationary population estimated by FAO Kised on physiological needs for normal actin itr size was estimated on the basis of the projected charactenstics of and health considerine environmental temperature. bodi weights. the population in the year 2000. and the rate of decline of fertihty age and sex distribution of population. and allowming IlI percent fr rate to replacement Icsel waste at household leel: 1961. 1970 and 1982 data Population lmentNrusr-Is the tendency for population growth to Per Capita Supply of rottis (grams per dayJ-ProLein content ol continue beyond the time that replacement-level fertility has been per capita net supply of food per day. Net supply of food is defined achieved; that is. even after the net reproduction rate has reached as above. Requirements for all countnes established bI USDA unity. The momentum of a population in the year : is measured as provide for minimum allowances of 60 grams of total protein per a ratio of the ultimate stationary population to the population in day and 20 grams of animal and pulse protein, of which 1t grams the year t: given the assumption that fertility remains at replace- should be animal protem. These standards.are lower than shoin ot ment level from year r onward. 1985 data. 75 grams of total protein and 23 grams of animal protemi a, an populattion De-si;y average for the world. proposed bv FAO in the Third World Food Per sq.km.-Mtd-year population per scuare kilometer 1100 hec- Supply: 1961. 1970 and 1982 data. tarcs) of total area: 1960. 1970. and 1983 data Per Capita Prorein supplyh Frm Anzimal and PAise-Protein iuppl' Per sq km. agriultural land-Computed as above for agrcultural of food derivcd from animals and pulses in grams per da!. 19h1 -65 land only. 1960. 1970. and 1982 data 1970 and 1977 dala Population Age Structure (percenri-Children 10-14 years) work- ChAid (ages 1-4) Dearh Rate (per thoursad)- Number of dJa;h' of ing age t 5-64 years). and retired s65 years and over) as percentage children aged 1-4 years per thousand children in the %ame ige of mid-year population: 1960. 1970. and 1983 data group in a wven year For most developing countries datu dented Population Growth Rare (percenrt-roral- Annual growth rates of from life tables. 1Q60. 1970 and 1983 data total mid-year population for 1950-60. 1960-70. and 1970-83. HEALTH Population Growth Rate (percrnrsir5ahra-Annual growth rates Life Expectancy at Birth (yerarsj-Number of years a newhorn of urban population for 1950-60. 1960-70. and 1970-33 data. infant would live ir prevailing patterns of mortality for all people  AN4NEX I - 24 - Page 4 of 6 at the time of or its birth wer to stay the same throughout its iifei Apllecheler Ratio - pramarr. and secoidario-Total students en- 1960. 1970 and 1983 data. rolled in pnmary and secondary levels divided by numbers or ht Menvpy Rota (pr thesaudI-Number of infanu swho die tacher In the corresponding lvels. before reaching one year of ag per thouund live births in a given year, 1960. 1970 and 183 datau CONSUMIPTION Accss to So Wea (pVee qf Jto u', 05 PanoVe Can (pe rhosoad jalWaen-Passenger cars com- rwaL-Number of people (total. urbsn. and rural) with reasnablee prim motor car seating le than eight persons; excludes ambul- aean to sfe water supply (Incudes treated surface waten or ances, hearss and military vehices. unutated but uncontuminated water such as that from protected Radio Rwivn fpr themndpopiluulwm-All types of rceivers bomehol. sprp and sanitary wells) as percentages of their mpec- for radio broadcasts to general public per thousand of population. tive populauons. In an uwbn ama a public fountain or staudpost excludes un-licensed mrcivers in countries and in years when located not more than 200 mete from a house may be considered registration of radio sets was in efect; data for rect years may as being within rauonable acceu of that house. In rural arcms not be comparable since most countries abolished licensing. raonable aces would imply that the houswife or memben of the houselhold do not have to spend a disproportionate part or the day TVReceirs (perhaousndpopulatislj-TV receivers for broadcast in fetching the family's water nees to general public per thousand population: excludes unlicensed TV Acc.u te E:xcret Dispenel (mereart of popalanoa)-eJ r. rd, , receivers in countries and in year when registrtion of TV sets was md --l-Numnber of people (total urban. and rual) served by ec excrets disposal as percetages of their rcspective populations. Neiwsp Crcialis.a f(pr uho_udpopalimio-Shows the aver- Excreta disposal may include the collection and disposal. with or age circulation of -daily general interest newspaper2 defined as a without tratment, of human cxcret and waste-water by water- periodical publication devoted pnmanly to recording general news borne systems or the use of pit privies and similar installations. It is considcred to be daily ir it appears at least four times a week Pepulatin per Phyukilen-Population divided by number of prac- Ciemaw Am1a Arttendace per Capit per Year-Based on the tsing physicians qualified rrom a medical school at university level number of tickets sold dunng the yea. including admissions to Popalatioa per NurJsi Persoi_--Ppulation divided by number of drivc-in cinemas and mobile units practicng male and female grduate nurses, assistant nurses. practical nurses and nursing auxilianes. LABOR FORCE PpuAtion per Ho-pita Red--oarl, urban. ad rural-Population Total LabAr Force (rheusandij-Economicall% acti%e persons. in- (total urban, and rural) divided by their respective number of cluding armed forces and unemployed but excluding house%ises. hospital beds available in public and private, general and specialized students. etc.. covenng population of all ages. Definitions in hospitals and rehabilitation centers. Hospitals are establishments various countries are not comparable; 1960. 1970 and 1983 data pemanently staffed by at least one physician. Establishments prov. Femal (perceatJ-Fimale labor force as percentage of total labor iding principally custodial care are not included. Rural hospitals, fotc howevcr. includc hcalth and medical centcrs not permanently staffed AicUke fpereent)-Labor fore in farming. forestry. hunting by a physician (but by a medical assistant, nurse, midwife. etc.) and fishing as percentage of total labor force; 1960. 1970 and 1980 which offer in-patient accommodation and provide a limited range data2 of medical facilities Indestry (percent)- Labor force in mining. construction. manu- Admisuions per Hospial Bed-Toml number of admissions to or factunng and electricity. water and gas as percentage of total labor discharges from hospitals divided by the number or beds force; 1960. 1970 anc 1980 data. Parrwlpeuioa Rate (percenri-toatl, malk, aadfemak-ParEcipauion HOUSING or activily rates are computed as total, male. and female labor force A.Wr Size of Heahl (per per p use h old)-eral. arban. as percentages of total. male and female population of all ages sadrurai-A household consists of a group of individuals who share respectively; 1960. 19'0. and 1983 data. These arc based on ILO's living quarters and their mnain meals. A boarder or lodger may or partcipation rates reflecting age-sex structure of the population. and nmy not be included in the household for statistical purposes. long time trend A few estimates are from national sources. Averae Number of Persons per Room-total, urban. and rral- F&onomi Dependency Ratrio-Ratio of population under 15. and Average number of persons per room in all urban, and rural 65 and over, to the %orking age population (those aged 15-64) occupied conventional dwellings. respectively Dwellings exclude non-permanent structures and unoccupied parts INCOME DISTRIBL TION Perentfage of Dwellings with Electricir*-iotal. mrban, and rural- Percentage of Total Dtiposable ncowme (both in cash and kindj- Conmcrntional dwcllings with electricity in living quarters as percen- Accruing to percentile croups of households ranked by total house- tage of total. urban. and rural dwellings respectively, hold income. EDUCATION POVERTY TARGET GROtPS Adjusted Enrollment RaiO& The folowing estimates are very approximate measures of poverts Prvnrv school - total. malte and femalk-Gross total. male and levels. and should be minerpreted with considerable caution. female ecrolment of aD ages at the primary klvl as percentages of Estimated Absolute Poverty Incom Leve (USS per capitai-uarban respective pnra.y school-age populations. While many countries and rural-Absolute poverty income kvel is that income level consider pnmary school age to be 6-11 years, others do not. The below which a minima! nutritionally adequate diet plus essential differences in country practics in the ages and dwuation of school non-food requirements is not affordable. arc reflected in the ratios given. For some countries with universal Estimated Relatire Porerry Income Lewel (SS per capital-urban education. gross enrollment may exceed 100 percent since some and rural-Rural relative poverty ireome level is one-third of pupils are below or above the country's standard pnmary-school avcrage pcr capita personal income of the country Urban leccl i* age denveu From the rural level with adjustment for higher cosi of Secondari school - total. mae and female-Computed as above: living in urban areas secondari education requires arIcast four years of approved pn- Estimartd Population Below bsolutre Poverty Ircome Level (per- mars instruction; provides general. vocational. or teacher training cent -urban and rural- Percent of population (urban and rural instructions for pupils usually of 12 to 17 years of age; correspond- who are "absolute poor ence courses are gencrally excluded. Voearwonal Eqrolbmeni (perceit of jecondaryl-Vocational institu- Comparatie Analysis and Data Division tions include technical. industriaL or other programs which operatc Economic Analysis and Projections Department independently or as departments of secondary institutions. June 1985  - 25 anarcz TPq 5d 6 RE1C orams^ wumc OFuLf MID1C DISA7 GM N4TML Mflt 1! 1966 Mtim hte af Cnmt (. inrtc prtm) MS iOn t 1973- 1977481 197341 191184 OGP at itiu Pri 1965 ID 4.59 -0.22 2.16 2.( rcu Datnmab twn tt 201 to -6.55 7.09 0.06 7.00 Gwa 1atism S5fl 179 9 -3.44 0.01 -1.70 - Carsnt Aou B1.lnc -fl -I 21.25 -39.77 -4.92 , ofbi. NEs 527 27 2D0.41 2.35 15.53 1.01 1 aptU ofGmAa. NFS -425 -22 -20.03 3.46 11.4 - C2173W. LAhOR Hf AND PMWEVIrY tn 1913 Value hdd lAr Foam A% pr Wrker uss n It dmxm SS_ hAlfa- 71n 42.38 2 82.00 351 51.015 lutsrW &ild 363 22.56 271 10A.9 1343 198.38 ServIc5 5R2 316.75 173 7.02 3645 5011.86 TacailAer/ 16 5 Ifl0f.V 2466 I1O00. 6- *ro.oo centrSlt. at c 1as1 1962 1983 1981 19R1 1982 1963 19p6 *ust RcIpts 11.52 15.35 ID.23 10.74 32.68 40.85 '3.1- 21.0 farroiC 0wdir 7.06 9.D9 7.80 9.92 19.97 24.27 17.67 19.4 cra Surplus 6 4.48 6.26 2.43 .83 12.71 16.71 5.51 1.6 ,aPital Bwutaan 5.73 4.36 2.93 3.85 16.25 11.58 K.65 7.5 (etl AD 1.6 0.63 .83 -.22 5.12 2.21 1.8B -.4 m.% , iRG A PRI'R BflAist SylIs Dc. 19BD Dec. 1981 Dec. 1982 Dec 39X3 lwy an qtsinqy 12.50 17.19 16.16 17.55 Bfa* Credtt wo Pablic Seccor 18.50 18.28 15.59 17.78 ^k Crltt to Prate Sector 1.21 1.02 0.59 0.63 1980 1981 1962 1983 rbwv ad qumi-sm Y as of G 77.4 49.69 39.86 40.28 C,rl Price Indc (1981.1n 0) 91.9 100.0 10i.4 116.4 Au1l S 0O_is in: fank Crlit to RhC sector 114.9 -6.65 -10.00 14.34 flma Culit to Privce Secor 60.3 -16.0D -62.16 6.71 Occter.22, 1985  - 26 - REPIMLIC 0 GUINU T 1858 PATIWITI AND CAPITAL Mo BALANCE Of PATETS 197i 1930 1961 19B2 i 3u - (UMMILL{M O (MT. Eeprtn of Goode 366 *69 493 64* 503 527 Imports of Good. -335 -395 - 346 -310 -C80 -423 Tride Balance 31 101 46 o4 123 3o e0rvtees and Private Transfere (nat) -97 -99 -123 -124 -240 -140 Interest U & L/T Debt -23 -23 -22 -25 -21 -21 Investment Inca_. -11 -40 -56 -54 -70 -09 Other Services (net) -49 -24 -41 -36 -40 -40 Workers micttancmnee 7 -' '9 9 49 4'0 Official Tranefere (net) 9 17 16 26 13 19 Balance on Current Account -5 19 -46 -34 1 -22 Direct Foreign Investuent 17 22 30 28 31 36 Net 11LT borrowing 37 14 53 20 62 -25 Dieburemante. Public Borrawing III 119 142 87 92 79 Amortcsation* Public Borroaitn -65 -73 -61 -53 46 -S. Subtotal. Publitc Brrovwng 66 66 at 34 46 -5 Private Sector (not) -29 -32 -23 -14 16 -20 Other Capttal (nBta, -1 I 11 31 -3 -12 Other Items n.i.e - -82 -90 -99 -56 -153 -43 Change In Recervem (- - increase) 'I 29 34 12 11 42 63 Crose Reserves I end yeer) 65 101 92 133 129 . Net Ranervee (end year) a/ _204 -240 -76 -47 -142 -205 Fuels and Related Matertial Tmports 56 BU 97 O6 83 87 of which: Petroleum 56 34 97 86 83 67 Exports a 0 C 0 0 0 RATES OF EXCRANCE AN 1975 1q76 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1963 1q84 Sylie13sS 20.33 22.38 21.14 19.72 19.11 18.97 20.'0 22.36 23.37 54.29 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (Average 1980-k4) EXTESMAL DERT* Decmr 31. 1984 (in conaant 1982 pricee) us&5 - I u-ss - Bauxite 334.4 70.1 Pubilc Debt Alumina 127.0 26.6 Including lindisbursed 1570.4 Diasonds 6.6 1.4 Outtaunding & Diabursed 1167.3 Agricultural Coemodities 9.2 1.9 Total 477.2 100.0 DEBT S}YIC MRATIOS FOR 1984 IBRDtlDA LENDING (March 31. 1985) Scheduled Service Payments 44.3 USS dn Public 34.0 IRRD IDA Private Debt ton GCuranteed 11.3 Outstanding a Disbursed 41.5 108.3 Undisbursed 0.0 86.4 Outstanding including undisbursed 41.5 194.7 Actual Service Paymnts Public Debt 19.9 Pri-ate Debt Von Guarent'd n-a. 1/ Nerchendise esportellaports only. 2/ Including capital transfers to. and investment on behalf of. etate enterprlses. 3I CDP implicit deflator. *2 Includes errors and ouneatons. and SDR allocations in 1980 and 1981. 5/ Discrepancias due to different exchange ratee. 6/ Debit balance of $213 mdllion under bilateral paymnt arrao ante converted 1981-82 to PL? loan. 7/ Perds gometrte average. i/ Debt service as a percentaw of mrchandsie export. October 22. 1985  - 27 - Pt0 1 of 2 TME RUICM: OF Q1CUENF Ls. 1 S. V ,cES P =P ,A1 IF W[D BANK CFRT1NS IN GJar A. Statmit of Bank LIa and MA Credits (as of Septaer 3_0, 1985) * Amount (IIms Credt Number Yew Borrower - Bank. MI 1/ kidisbhtsed 1/ Tuo lo am d tree Cre1its have bes fully di*ursd 73.50 28.99 870G- 1979 adzea First Water Suly and Saritatiim 12.50 0.74 952-4l 1980 &uine Rice Deuelopmet 10.40 1.53 953-3I 1980 Qdtm Secd aswy 13.0) 0.26 10634GI 1981 (Uts Livetodc D wdelopit 2.11 0. 15 1085-I 1981 oilm Powe 28.50 0.66 1234-iI 1982 ma Irdustrlal ita 19.00 12.03 ad Promotio 1341-D1 1983 Guzina Secogil Ediatim 11.00 8.55 1382-Gl 1983 Ouima Goakzy Port 13.00 4.25 1438-al 1984 ri2ea Petrolan IplDratiLm Promtk- 8.00 5.81 1457-Gl 1984 Gurma Third HIEa 28.00 26.07 1466-1 1984 Cuirea Coiky Urban De lo!md 10.70 9.55 1559-01t, 1985 tdna T.A- for EmLouic lnagmit 9.50 9.29 1595-Gil 1985 Guiz Sead Paw & Tech. Assistazce 8.00 8.00 Total 73.50 202.70 86.89 of iich has beetrepald 34.04 0.00 Total nw held by Baik adMDA 3/ 39.46 202.70 Total umIsbursed 0.0 86.89 86.89 Lf Beginni8g ith Credit 1063-MI. Credits hav beim dxmated in Special Drd, Rights. 2h dollar awits in these colmxs represt the dollar equivalet at the tine of credit neciatia for the MDA ants aid the dollar eqivalmts as of September 30. 198w , for the udisbursed mmts. (1 SDR - US$1.05940). 2/ Not yet effective. 3/ Priow t:o e xa2g adjust=. * The stats of the prOjects listed in Part A is descr in a separate report om all Bzan&A ftIIwxal projects In c1 tim, ukich is udated ice yearly and cxaiated to the 13sxti Directos m April 30 ard October 31.  - 28 - Pap 2 of 2 B. S of iFt ivinmsts (as of S r 30. 1985) Fi Yes M1&ypm of slu.ias la