Somalia - Livestock Health Services Project

Document of The World Bank FOX OMCIAL USE ONLY C~ R. Gt) -S o Repor No. i-4189-SO 4.f REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED SDR 4.1 MILLION CUSA4.3 MILLION) CREDIT TO THE SOMALJ4DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC FOR A LIVESTOCK HEALTH SERVICES PROJECT December 12, 1985 I Ths domm h a reslrcud dhidm and may be aed by redbplus euy in the peformnce of th-r . -m dul. ft I =y n ehele be d_losed witbou WeeAd Bo& authwdztiu.  CURRENCY AND EQUIVALENT UNITS Somali Shilling (So.Sh.) = 100 cents US$1.00 = So.Sh. 42.00 (November 1985) WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 Hectare (ha) = 10,000 m2 I Square Kilometer (kmn2) = 100 ha 1 Metric Ton (mt) 1,000 kg ABBREVIATIONS AMED = Animal Health Department of MLFR AU = Animal Units CBPP = Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia CCPP = Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia CRDP = Central Rangelands Development Project FAO/IC = Food & Agriculture Organization/Investment Centre FYDP = Four-Year Development Plan (1982-86) GOS = Government of Somalia GZ = German Technical Assistance XCB = International Competitive Bidding IDA = International Development Association IFAD = International Fund for Agricultural Development IRC = Inter-Regional Committee L/C = Letter of Credit LCB = Local Competitive Bidding M = Million iMLFR = Ministry of Livestock, Forestry & Range MTR = Mid-Term Review NRA = National Range Agency NRA1DP = Northern Rangelands Development Project ODA = Overseas Development Agency of UK PC = Project Committee PMU = Project Management Unit PPF = Project Preparation Facility SOE = Statement of Expenditure USAID = United States Agency for International Development WFP = World Food Program FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31  FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY - i - LIVESTOCK HEALTH SERVICES PROJECT CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower: Somali Democratic Republic . Beneficiary: Ministry of Livestock, Forestry and Range (MLFR) Amount: SDR 4.1 million (US$4.3 million equivalent) Terms: Standard Co-Financing: SDR 5.9 million loan (US$6.3 million equivalent) from the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). Project Description Objectives: (a) To reduce economic losses in the livestock sector. The immediate objectives would be to assist MLFR in (i) defining a comprehensive and economically justifiable animal disease control program for Northern SomalFa and (ii) testing such a disease control program on an operational scale. The project would strengthen the Animal Health Department (AHND) of MLFR. (b) The project would be complementary to ongoing projects in animal health. It would serve as a basis for planning further improvements in veterinary services. Components: Part A: disease investigation and livestock health services planning over a six and a half year period concentrated on the first three and a half years (Phase I). Part B: pilot program for disease control during the second half (Phase II) of the project. Components: laboratory services at Hargeisa - and Burao; field services - investigation; field services - development; project management; and training. Benefits: Not quantifiable at present. Costs and benefits of animal health services would be quantified during the first three years of the project. Production benefits would come from reduced mortality and morbidity with improved rates of reproduction and growth. Main economic benefits would derive from increased exports. Thisdbnument hmsa retioteddLsuibuton and may be used bymipentsonloy inthe perfonmaneof theirofrw duties. Its contents nay nototherwisebedisdodsedwthout World Bank authorization.  - ft - Risks: Some border area may be insecure. It may be difficult to monitor herds crossing borders, and data may be lost. Qualified counterparts may be difficult to retain. Soms staff incentives and facilities may help to attract and retain qualified staff. Uncertain market outlets and reduced livestock offtake could jeopardize the range. GOS is exploring alternative markets and range monitoring would be a project component. The USATD Marketing and Realtb Project is designed to reduce such risks. PKU would maintain close contact with the USAID project through the Project Committee in MLFR. Cost Estimates 1/ Local Foreign Total =-~~ (US$ million)- Laboratory Services 0.1 1.1 1.2 Field Services: Investigation (Phase I) 0.4 2.4 2.7 Field Services: Development (Phase II) 0.2 3.2 3.4 Project Management 0.1 1.4 1.5 Training - 0.1 0.1 Subtotal 0.8 8.2 8.9 Physical Contingencies - 0.2 0.2 Price Contingencies 0.2 2.3 2.5 Total Project Costs 1.0 10.6 11.6 Proposed Financing Plan IDA Credit - 4.3 4.3 IFAD Loan - 6.3 6.3 Government of Somalia 1.0 - 1.0 Total 1.0 10.6 11.6 Estimated IDA Disbursements (US$ Million) IDA FY 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Annual 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 Cumulative 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.9 4.3 Economic Rate of Return: None calculated. Man: IBRD No. 19008 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding.  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENT TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ON A PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CREDIT TO THE SOMALI DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC FOR A LIVESTOCK HEALTH SERVICES PROJECT 1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposed development credit to the Somali Democratic Republic for SDR 4.1 million (US$4.3 million equivalent) on standard IDA terms to help finance a Livestock Health Services Project. The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) will cofinance the program with a loan of SDR 5.9 million (US$6.3 million equivalent). The IFAD loan will carry a service charge of one percent annually, with a maturity period of 50 years, including a 10 year grace period. PART 1 - THE ECONOMY 2. A report on the economy entitled: 'Somalia - Towards Economic Recovery and Growth (Report No. 5584-SO) was distributed to the Executive Directors in August 1985. The Resource Base 3. Somalia is a large, sparsely populated country; its varied topography includes a hot and arid coastal plain, rugged mountains and plateaus, and lowlands of varying fertility and rainfall. Its population of about 5.3 million is unevenly distributed over a land area of nearly 638,000 sq km of semi-desert. Population growth in recent years has been about 3 percent (excluding refugee inflows) which will result in long-term pressure on the fragile resource base. Only aoout 13 percent of the land is suitable for cultivation, but with watez the main constraint, only a small fraction (8.5 percent) of this potentially arable land is cultivated. 4. The mainstay of the economy has long been nomadic pastoralism. About 50 percent of the population are nomads and semi-nomads who depend on livestock for their livelihood. Livestock production accounts for about 40 percent of GDP and provided, until recently, over 80 percent of export earnings. Crop production generates about 10 percent of GDP. . 5. Apart from the traditional export of livestock, commercial agriculture is centered mainly on the production and export of bananas and the production of sugar, sorghum, and maize for the domestic market. Expansion of the manufacturing and service sectors is limited by the small size of the domestic market, poor infrastructure, and shortages of capital and entrepreneurial experience. The existence of several minerals has been confirmed, but their exploration is still at an early stage. 6. A number of foreign companies have been engaged in onshore and offshore exploration for hydrocarbons but so far no commercially viable oil prospects have emerged. Investigations for natural gas, under an IDA  - 2 - credit, have proved disappointing. In the absence of other known resources, Somalia's prospects depend upon agricultural and livestock development, whose progress will depend upon careful management of the scarce land and water resources, and improvements in animal health. 7. Somalia is among the poorest countries in the world and is cIlassified by the United Nations as a least-developed country. Per capita income was estimated at $265 in 1982. Other indicators of the country's low level of social and economic development include: a crude death rate estimated at 20 per thousand population (compared to a crude birth rate of 50 per thousand); an average life expectancy of only 45 years; an infant mortality rate as high as 142 per thousand population; primary and secondary school enrollment ratios of 30 percent and 11 percent, respectively; and a ratio of nearly 16,000 persons per physician. Past Development Strategy and Performance 8. Following its assumption of power in 1969, the Government adhered to a program of "scientific socialism' whose stated objectives were egalitarianism and social justice, development through the public sector, nationalization of certain foreign enterprises, and the formation of cooperatives. Public ownership and management expanded both through nationalizations and through the creation of new public enterprises. The parastatal sector established in the 1970s included about 45 autonomous agencies which eliminated private enterprise in wholesale trade and banking, and which dominated manufacturing. 9. In the early 1970S Somalia made considerable progress in meeting certain basic needs. A program of literacy and primary education had notable results, and an effective system of food distribution was also established. In other respects, however, the record in the social sectors -has been less impressive, particularly in water supply, sanitation and health, where services have frequently been biased in favor of the urban population. Moreover, there are indications that there has been a trend towards increasing income differentiation within the rural sector. 10. During the 1970s the Somali economy experienced stagnation in production and a decline in per capita income. Only the services sector grew during the period, by 3.5 percent per year and the growth in government services, at an annual rate of about , percent, was particularly striking. Beginning in 1981, the economy witnessed a reversal of the past trend, with real GDP in 1981-82 growing on average by 6.4 percent per year notwithstanding some decline in the services sector. 11. Over 100,000 Somalis have migrated to work in the Gulf area, which has led to severe depletion of Somalia's already small stock of qualified and skilled manpower. The savings of these emigrants are potentially an important resource for the economy, but despite substantial adjustment of the exchange rate, only a small proportion of emigrants' savings is remitted, largely through unofficial channels.  - 3 - 12. Following a border conflict with Ethiopia in 1977/78, there was a great surge in Government expenditures which resulted In widened deficits in boLla the budget and the balance of payments. During 1978-80, the Government's financial situation deteriorated rapidly, mainly because of the sizeable expansion in expenditures consequent upon the border conflict, the cost of maintaining large numbers of refugees, and the wage bill associated with the Government's policy of guaranteeing employment for secondary school leavers. At the same time, official foreign aid declined. This resulted in Government recourse to deficit financing. With further deterioration in the budgetary situation in 1979 the Government's recourse to the Central Bank rose to record levels (about 13 percent of GDP). This, in turn, led to rapid inflation, from 10 percent in 1978 to 60 percent in 1980. 13. Official data on Somalia's balance of payments are incomplete, but it seems that the country had a reasonably comfortable overall balance of payments position up to the beginning of 1979. The stagnation in exports and surge in imports since 1979 resulted in a widening of both the current and overall balance of payments deficits. The current account deficit during 1980-83 averaged $290 million, as compared to $110 million in the years 1977-78. Total international reserves, which rose steadily in the 1970s to $158 million in March 1979, dropped to $15 million at the end of December 1980, and have since dwindled to nearly zero. 14. The stagnation of export earnings and the near zero level of domestic savings have rendered Somalia entirely dependent upon external assistance for the financing of development. After joining the Arab League in 1974, Somalia mounted a successful effort to attract funds from the Arab petroleum exporting countries. After 1977, the sources of foreign assistance shifted from the centrally planned economies (except for the People's Republic of China, which maintains a large program) towards Arab bilateral and multilateral institutions and OECD countries, several of which have had substantial assistance programs for a number of years. According to OECD data, Somalia's receipts of ODA during the period 1980-1982 averaged nearly $400 million per year, equivalent to some $75 per capita per year. 15. Somalia's external debt burden has grown rapidly in recent years and amnunted to about $1.4 billion at end 198&. The structure and terms of borrowing have also hardened. The debt service ratio in terms of obligations rose from 7 percent in 1979 to nearly 50 percent in 1983 and is projected at about 100 percent in 1986. The country also has accumulated debt service arrears. The problem of arrears has not been fully resolved by the debt rescheduling at the Paris Club in March 1985. IMF and World Bank staff have encouraged the Government to seek further debt relief where possible on concessional terms. Policy Changes 16. As the financial crisis deepened through 1978-1980, the Government became convinced of the need to take remedial action and embarked on a course of moving towards a more market-oriented economy.  - 4- Beginning in early 1981, the Government successfully implemented two successive stabilization programs supported by INF standby arrangements. The measures taken under these programs included adjustment of the exchange rate, fiscal and monetary restraint, and significant liberalization of agricultural marketing. Under the first standby program, a dual exchange rate was introduced, producer prices for agricultural crops were increased, and banana growers received the full benefit of devaluation. This program also involved a substantial reduction in Government recourse to the banking system and increased interest rates. 17. Following the completion of the 1981/82 program, a new stabilization program was adopted in mid-1982, supported by the IMF with an SDBR 60 million 18-month standby arrangement for the period July 1982-December 1983. The dual exchange rate was unified on July 1, 1982, the Somali shilling was again devalued, interest rates were raised, and fiscal and monetary expansion was restricted. In January 1983, a bonus scheme was introduced providiag for a premium of 25 percent in foreign exchange terms of inward remictances and capital inflows by Somali nationals. In mid-1983, a more flexible exchange rate system was introduced whereby the Somali shilling was pegged to the SDR adjusted by the relative rates of inflation between Somalia and the five countries In the SDR basket. However, the beneficial effects of these measures were overshadowed by the negative impact of a ban on Somali cattle imports by Saudi Arabia (which has been in effect since May 1983) and by the impact of a drought that began in 1983 and continued into 1984. 18. The Government decided in 1983 to abandon its policy of guaranteed employment to high school leavers. The Government is in the process of determining which public enterprises should be phased out of operation, which privatized, and which retained in the public sector. Another step to liberalize the economy was the de facto elimination of the Government monopoly on grain purchases. 19. The policy reforms introduced by the Government from 1981-83 had a positive impact on the economy. Reductions were effected in the rate of growth of the money supply, in Government recourse to the banking system, and in the rate of inflation. There was also some increase in commodity production and exports. These measures represented the first stage in the formulation and implementation of a policy agenda directed at restoring financial equilibrium, rehabilitating andJmaking fuller use of existing agricultural and industrial productive capacity, and establishing the foundations for long-term growth. 20. In March 1983 the Government requested the Bank to organize a 4 first Consultative Group Meeting for Somalia. It prepared a Medium-Term Recovery Program (MTRP) for the Consultative Group Meeting, consisting of (i) a program of phased policy measures aimed at restoring equilibrium in the balance of payments and public finances and at rationalizing the pricing and incentive structure; and (ii) a resource-constrained Public Investment Program (PIP) for the period 1984-86. The formulation of this recovery program represented a major accomplishment.  - 5 - 21. The inaugural meeting of the Consultative Group for Somalia was held in October 1983. Participants were encouraged by the remedial policy measures taken by the Government of existing facilities. They welcomed in particular the substantial adjustments made by the Government in the size and composition of the investment program at the Consultative Group Meeting. These adjustments included postponing some new projects pending results of new studies, rephasing the implementation of ongoing projects and introducing new high-priority schemes such as the rehabilitation of irrigation in the Shebelli region. It was recognized at the meeting that further financial aid to Somalia should be on highly concessional terms and that Somalia should attempt to secure debt relief on concessional terms. 22. Following the Consultative Group Meeting, intensive discussions between the Government and donors were held concerning follow-up action on the development of the Juba Valley, including the proposed Bardhere Dam, and agreement was reached with the Bank on terms of reference and a timetable for a study of interim water solutions, financed under the first IDA Technical Assistance Credit. A USAID financed Civil Survice Study has been reviewed by the Government and arrangements for follow-up are being made. Recent Developments 23. After having improved markedly between mid-1981 and late 1983, in 1984 the Somali economy came under increasing stress, due to (i) the acute shortage of foreign exchange due to the fall in livestock exports; (ii) a drop in domestic food production owing to a drought in 1983 and the lateness of rain in early 1984; and (iii) the March 1984 government decision not to implement additional policy measures for exchange rate adjustments and financial restraint under an IMF program. Following the breakdown of the stabilization program, the exchange rate in the parallel market fell steeply. In addition, there was a sharp acceleratior in monetary expansion, fueled largely by a rapid expansion in net credit to the Government. Domestic inflation rose from 32 percent in 1983 to over 90 percent in 1984. 24. As the economy deteriorated, the Government came to realize the need for new corrective measures. Following an IMF mission and a parallel Bank mission in early September 1984, the Government adjusted the exchange rate. During the 1984 Bank/Fund Annual Meeting discussions, the Minister of Finance reiterated Somalia's commitment to a recovery program emphasizing development of the productive sectors, rehabilitation and full utilization of existing capacities, and encouragement of the private sector. The Minister also confirmed the Government's decision to reopen its dialogue with the IMF. 25. In connection with the design and negotiation of the Stand-by Arrangement, Bank staff reviewed the Government's draft Public Investment Program (PIP) for 1985; following some adjustments by the Government, Bank staff infor-med the IMF staff that it considered the PIP broadly consistent with the country's development needs and objectives. Major policy actions included: (a) devaluation of the Somali shilling by almost 50 percent and  introduction of a free foreign exchange market for nearly all private sector transactions; (b) abolition of price controls; (c) restrictiou of credit and severe fiscal limits; (d) civil service staff reductions; (e) arrangements to improve debt management and regularize Somalia's relations with creditors; (f) increases in interest rates; and (g) public enterprise reforms. 26. On January 1, 1985 the Government implemented nearly all the preconditions to the IMF Stand-by program. These included a freely floating system for the determination of the market exchange rate for most private sector transactions, and virtual elimination of all trade restrictions. On a transitional basis, an official exchange rate for government transactions has been maintained. The official exchange rate was devalued by 38 percent in domestic currency terms and is to be adjusted each month by the difference between domestic and international inflation plus an additional 0.5 Somali Shillings per US dollar. 27. On January 23, 1985 a special meeting of the Consultative Group for Somalia was held to mobilize financial support for the country's balance of payments in 1985. At this meeting about US$80 million were committed in additional support for 1985. Subsequently, the IMF Board approved, on February 22, 1985, an SDR 22 million Stand-by Arrangement and a SDR 33 million Compensatory Financing Facility. At a meeting of the Paris Club on March 4, 1985, Somalia was accorded a rescheduling of its debts (arrears and principal) by its major OECD-member creditors. The second meeting of the Consultative Group was held on November 5 and 6, 1985, to review Somalia's 1986-88 Public Investment Program, medium-term prospects, and aid requirements. 28. The Consultative Group reviewed the requirements of aid disbursement for 1986 and concluded that about US$430 million of external assistance needed to be provided, through a combination of project aid, commodity aid, cash aid and debt relief; debt relief would have to constitute about one-fourth of the total, and cash and commodity aid together one-third. Members indicated their continued support for Somalia's program through significant amounts of project and non-project aid for 1986 and the ensuing years, and confirmed the need for broadly based debt relief. PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN SOMALIA 29. Bank Group commitments to Somalia to date total US$247 million, consisting of 28 IDA credits and two IFC investments. Thirteen projects a-e under implementation. Over thirty percent of total IDA lending has been for agriculture, twenty five percent for transport and the rest about equally divided over education, water supply, ports, energy, industry and technical assistance. An agricultural inputs program was approved in FY85. IFC has so far made two investments in Somalia -- a US$375,000 loan for a molasses terminal for the Juba Sugar Project and SWF 1,550,000 for a polypropylene bag project.  -7- 30. Physical progresa in implementing development projects in Somalia has boen mixed, and saoe have not done well. Progress of the North West Region Agricultural Development Project - Phase I has been good, and the maln production targets estimated at appraisal have been met or exceeded. Projects for roads, ports, water and education have been more successful than in the agricultural sector. Many IDA-financed projects have experienced delays in execution. Staffing and management problems have impeded effective preparation and implementation of projects. 31. Somalia's disbursement performance on projects assisted by the Bank Group has been satisfactory. The FY85 disbursement rate ms 33.5 percent, as compared to 21.9 percent for Eastern and Southern Africa and 22.0 percent Bank/IDA-wide. IDA Strategy 32. In early January 1985 the Government implemented far-reaching policy reforms to liberalize the Somali economy and to improve its macroeconomic management. We propose to continue to assist the Government to devise and implement policies and programs to improve the efficiency of both the public and private sectors, to improve the macroeconomic framework for domestic and external resource mobilization and allocation, improve pricing administration and marketing systems, and to increase production and exports. We aim to support further use of existing capacity and to help lay the foundations for longer term growth. Issues in public enterprise reform are expected to become an increasingly important component of our policy dialogue. 33. We are giving particular attention to aid management issues, and have undertaken an assessment of technical assistance to Somalia jointly with the UNDP. An energy assessment has been completed, as has a review of population, health and nutrition issues. A collaborative review with the Government and donors of major issues in the agricultural sector is under way with support from an SPPF. We are cooperating with the government in the preparation and review of periodically updated public investment and expenditure programs, at both the global and, increasingly, at the sector level. The Advisory Committee for Juba Valley Development established by the Consultative Group at its October 1983 meeting provides an important forum for review and collaboration on issues affecting the development of Somaliast major water resource. 34.- In our lending work, we plan to emphasize productive investments and rehabilitation programs. An irrigation rehabilitation project is being prepared to help increase productivity and farmer incomes in the Shebelli Valley. Most projects have been cofinanced with a number of other donors, and this is expected to continue in the future. For example, an IDA commodity import program is being cofinanced by a grant from Federal Republic of Germany, and IDA administers additional commodity assistance on behAlf of Italy. Our economic and sector work program strives to support the macroeconomic reform process, and to provide analytical inputs for the work of the Consultative Group for Soalia.  - 8- Relationship to Other Aid Flows 35. IDA disbursements represent about eight percent of total aid flows to Somalia. We expect that this relationship will continue at about the same level during the next several years. IDA obligations represent about 12 percent of Somalia's total outstanding and disbursed debt up to December 31, 1983. Debt service payments to IDA represent a very small proportion of Somalials total debt service obligations. In 1984, payments to IDA were estimated at only about one percent of total debt service payments for that year. This trend is expected to continue in the future. PART III - THE LIVESTOCK SUB-SECTOR Background 36. The total livestock population was estimated to be about 40 million animals in 1984 of which over 70 percent were sheep and goats. Nomadic pastoralism is the predominant form of livestock production accounting for about 80 percent of livestock ownership and providing a livelihood for about 50 percent of the human population. No epidemiological studies of mortality and morbidity rates have been carried out, but they are believed to be high especially among young stock. Rough estimates show losses from all causes to be about 4.5 million sheep and goats, 400,000 cattle and 460,000 camels a year. 37. The annual offtake or production in the livestock sector varies widely with geography and climate, and has been estimated to be about 3.5 million animals of which 1.9 million would be goats, 1.2 million sheep, 0.2 million cattle and 0.2 million camels. About two-thirds of the total production is marketed. Export data suggest an increase in offtake over the last 25 years. The main driving force behind this expansion has been the increasing commercialization of nomadic livestock herding, pulled by a buoyant market in Saudi Arabia for goats and sheep since the late 1960s. This market has, however, in recent years been severely disrupted. Competition from better organized suppliers has intensified and Saudi consumers are now less willing to pay substantially higher prices for Somali stock. In 1983 Saudi Arabia banned imports of cattle and small ruminants from East Africa on grounds of the risk of disease. The cattle ban remains in force, and exports of small stock have, despite the lifting of the ban on small ruminants, not recovered to former levels. The prospects of Somalia recovering its Saudi market share are highly uncertain. GOS has made some efforts towards diversifying its markets. A USAID-funded Livestock Marketing and Health Project, which started late 1984, focuses on upgrading quarantine and related export facilities to meet international trade requirements and on improving the health program for cattle exports. Through marketing studies, it is expected to assist GOS in improving the livestock marketing system and developing a cattle export marketing strategy.  - 9 - 38. Official exports are subject to export licensing and to a system of letters of credit (L/C) under which GOS specifies an L/C value per head which is below the actual dollar value realized by the sale. The L/C value is repatriated at the official exchange rate while the exporter is free to repatriate the remainder at the open market rate or to purchase goods abroad for resale in Somalia. The high official valuation of the Somali currency, in conjunction with the L/C system,, results in a high rate of implicit taxation on the sub-sector, anounting, at the time of appraisal, to about 40Z on gross earnings in the case of small rminants. It is expected that the impact of this taxation on export incentives and the need for a revision of Government policy regarding the L/C system will be reviewed under the marketing studies scheduled to be carried out under the USAID-assisted Livestock Marketing and Health Project. Government Policy and Ilstitutions 39. The Government assigns the highest priority for livestock subsector development to a reduction of waste caused by disease and to subsequent increases in offtake, exports and foreign exchange earnings. Other priorities include range development and preservation, and production diversification with a strong emphasis on private sector Involvement. Efforts to improve animal health through enhanced disease control measures need to be balanced with available animal feed resources. Hence the Northern and Central Rangelands Development Projects aim at increasing the productivity of rangelands to accommodate increased livestock production. Furtheruore, under the USAID assisted Livestock Marketing and Health Services project, special provisions are included for expansion of private sector fodder production. The Ministry of Livestock, Forestry and Range (MLFR) is the Government agency concerned with the development of the livestock subsector. The Animal Health Department (AnD), the largest MLFR department, is responsible for all aspects of animal disease control including field vaccination and treatments, the distribution of drugs and medicine, and central and regional veterinary laboratory services. Issues in Animal Disease Control 40. Although subsector objectives emphasize reduction in economic waste caused by disease, the strategies and programs to accomplish this objective are poorly defined. In the absence of well-defined disease control programs, the veterinary services of AHD lack focus and guidance, and the links between field and laboratory services remain weak. Effective planning of veterinary interventions is impeded by a lack of understanding of current levels of mortality and morbidity caused by animal diseases. The major issue in livestock health improvement is therefore the absence of well-defined and regionally oriented disease control programs which are economically justifiable, and monitored as to their effectiveness. This issue requires consideration of the appropriate roles of public and private sectors in the delivery of veterinary services and recovery of public sector expenditures to sustain such programs. Strengthening of the technical and organizational base for animal health planning is an immediate priority. The proposed project would address this need as it relates to northern Somalia.  - 10 - 41. The monopoly on animal drug importation and distribution strains the Government s foreign exchange resources while failing to tap the resources of the private sector in meeting the drug demand. The Government recognizes the need for privatization of animal drug importation and distribution. A study to examine the feasibility and organizational aspects of involving the private sector in drug distribution is being planned under the USAID-assisted Livestock Marketing and Health Project. Furthermore, under the IDA-financed Agricultural Inputs Program, GOS has agreed to authorize approved dealers to import and distribute specified animal drugs. The proposed project would closely follow these activities. 42. Insufficient attention has been given in the past to the implications of the limited feed resources of the range and the increases in livestock numbers that might result from an effective disease control program. Any such increase in livestock numbers, without a commensurate increase in offtake sustained by an assured demand for consumption of meat, would be counterproductive and exacerbate the already precarious feed situation and risk of increased losses from starvation in drought situations. The proposed project acknowledges the need to plan, implement and monitor a disease control program for northern Somalia while maintaining the sustainability of the range resources and market offtake. Bank Group and Other Donor Roles in Livestock Subsector 43. Since the early 1970s, a series of internationally funded projects supporting Government strategy have been initiated. These projects, however, reflected an initial emphasis on the establishment of intensive public sector livestock production systems. Cost overruns, delays, management and technical problems, input shortages and low level of output led to a lack of support for this approach. Attention was then focused on the management of critical range resources, involving two large projects-the Northern Rangelands Development Project, financed by the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development, and the Central Rangelands Development Project, supported by multidonor financing including IDA. Ongoing projects partially addressing livestock health issues include: (i) the Bay Region Agricultural Development Project (involving IDA financing) with a component, funded by USAID, to upgrade veterinary services in the region; (ii) the Tsetse Fly Control Project (ODA supported since 1977); (iii) the veterinary component of the Central Rangelands Development Project financed by the Federal Republic of Germany; and most recently (iv) the Livestock Marketing and Health Project (USAID funded, 1984). 44. The efforts at development of the livestock subsector have met with mixed but generally limited success. Cost overruns, drought and border conflicts have caused severe setbacks. Large project size and area, complexity of project activities and inadequate baseline data are factors found to have contributed to implementation difficulties. Dependence on large-scale construction programs, poor project management and field supervision, lack of necessary project inputs and lack of interaction with nomadic beneficiaries are additional factors. Sustainability of development activities has been jeopardized by inadequate cost recovery and funding by GOS. The design of th2 proposed project recognizes these factors.  - II - PART IV - THE PROJECT 45. The project was appraised In November-December 1984, and the Staff Appraisal Report No. 5639-S0, dated December 12, 1985, is being circulated separately. A supplementary project data sheet is attached as Anne% TII. Negotiations were held In Paris, on November 7 and 8, 1985. The Government delegation was led by Mr. Russein elabeh Fahie, Permanent Secretary, Ministry of National Planning. Justification and ObJectives 46. While many ongoing projects in the livestock subsecto: provide some support for animal health, there in presently no systematic approach to upgrading the national services. These services are presently not capable of carrying out a phased program of planning, programming, implementation and evaluation required for successful and cost effective control of animAl disease. The proposed project would provide the required atrengthening. 47. The long-term goals of the project would be to help reduce the economic losses in the livestock sector which result from aniral diseases, and to strengthen the institutional capability of AED to serve the needs of the livestock subsector. The project would assist AND in: (i) defining a comprehensive and economically justifiable animal disease control program for the northwest regions; and (ii) testing such a program on an operational scale. The project area, defined as the Awdal, Galbeed and Togdheer Regions, has been chosen because of the large proportion of the national livestock herd (particularly of small ruminants) found in the area and its significance as a major supply area for the livestock export trade with the Gulf and Middle East countries. The project would be complementary to ongoing projects aiming at animal health improvement in the area, notably the USAID assisted Livestock Marketing and HeAlth Project. It would be consistent with the phased approach to Animal disease control that has already been adopted under the Central Rangelands Project (IDA Cr. 906-SO). Furthermore, its results would serve as a basis for planning further improvements in veterinary services in northern Somalia and the country. In this sense, it would serve as a pilot project. Project Description 48. The project, to be implemented by a Project Management Unit within AND would (i) strengthen disease investigation and livestock health services planning (Part A); and (ii) implement, on a pilot scale, a disease control program in the project area (Part B). Part A activities would extend over the entire six and a half year project period but would be concentrated in the first three and a half years (Phase I), and would aim at the formulation of a comprehensive disease control program for the project area. The implementation of a pilot program for disease control in the project area (Part B) would be initiated during the second balf of the project period (Phase II). The scope, detailed design and justification of such a program, to be proposed during Phase I, would be subject to a  - 12 - Mid-Term Review (MTR). To facilitate the implementation of such a program the project would provide a Development Fund to be used for the strengthening of delivery systems for veterinary services. The individual project components of the project are described in the following paragraphs. 1/ Detailed Features of the Project 49. Laboratory Services (US$1.2 Million). The space and facilities of the existing laboratory at Hargeisa are inadequate to support the proposed broad disease investigation program. The project would therefore provide for (i) the construction of a new central veterinary laboratory at Hargeisa, and the rehabilitation of the existing laboratory at Burao to improve the regional diagnostic capabilities of AHD; (ii) the services of an expatriate senior laboratory technician; and (iii) financing of incremental local staff costs and operating costs for laboratory services. The selection of the site for the new laboratory would be finalized by December 15, 1985. Transfer of land for the project's use for the laboratory and for expatriates' housing would be a condition of Credit Effectiveness. 50. Field Services and Investigation (US$2.7 Million). To strengthen AHD's resources for veterinary disease investigations in the field, the project would provide for technical assistance services, transport, equipment, supplies (including drugs) and financing of incremental staff costs and the rehabilitation of a small number of AHD veterinary district offices. The disease investigation program would rely on specimens and information collected by two Veterinary Investigation Teams with two additional mobile teams for range and pastoralist systems investigations operating parallel. 51. Training (US$0.1 Million). overseas training would be provided for a total of nine staff of AED through scholarships and short-term professional courses. The training would focus on the areas of veterinary economics, epidemiology and animal health planning. In-service training of Somali veterinary and other staff would be provided regularly throughout the project period through the services of the expatriate advisors. 52. Project Management Unit (US$ 1.5 Million). The project would provide quarters for internationally recruited advisors, vehicles, office accommodation, office furniture and equipment. An internationally recruited technical advisor to the Project Director satisfactory to IDA would be employed. In addition, 20 man-months of short-term consultancies would be financed. I/ All amounts shown are baseline costs in October 1985 prices.  - 13 - 53. Technical Assistance.2/ The project would provide for about 30 man-years of internationally recruited consultant services satisfactory to IDA, to assist AHD in designing and implementing the investigation program, translating results into recommandations for disease control strategies and prog-ams and for supervising and monitoring the implementation of a disease control program (Part B) during Phase II. The indicated complement of advisory services is the minimum considered necessary to effectively carry out the identified tasks. Terms of Reference for the consultants have been finalized and early GOS action to recruit the above consultants would be critical for the initiation of the investigatorial program. It would be a condition of Credit Effectiveness that the Government has completed the contractual arrangements for at least six consultants. 54. The Development Fund for Strengthening of Veterinary Field Services (US$3.4 Million). The program for strengthening veterinary field services, would be financed through a Development Fund and implemented over a three-year period (Phase II) with details to be determined through )TR. It would be likely to include support to AHD's veterinary field service in the form of vehicles, equipment, and rehabilitation of district office buildings. It would also be expected to provide technical and financial support for the establishment of private sector veterinary and drug distribution services. Project Costs 55. The estimated total project cost, including physical and price contingencies, is US$11.6 million of which 91 percent would be foreign exchange. Items procured under the project are free of duties and taxes. The cost estimates are based on November 1984 figures updated to October 1985 baseline prices. Physical contingencies for civil works and equipment and vehicles are estimated at 10 percent. No physical contingencies have been provided for international and local staff salaries or training. Price contingencies have been estimated from the expected annual international and local inflation rates. Base costs are estimated using the exchange rate US$1 - So.Sh. 42.00. Total project costs including price contingencies reflect further expected devaluation of the local currency. 56. Detailed estimates of project costs for the strengthening of veterinary field services (Part B of the project) would be prepared for the MTR. It is expected, however, that these costs would be contained within a total cost of US$4.8 million, including physical and price contingencies. The amount has been determined at a level which at this stage is considered appropriate to permit an initial testing of a disease control program In the project area and which would be consistent with an IFAD contribution of US$4.5 million for financing of estimated foreign exchange costs. An 2/ The costs of these services are included in the cost estimates shown above for the respective project components.  - 14 - advance under IDA's Project Preparation Facility (PPF) of US$200,000 net of duties and taxes has been requested by GOS. The PPF would cover the costs of (a) technical assistance to prepare design and tender documents for civil works, vehicles and equipment; (b) procurement of the first batch of vehicles and office supplies and equipment to support early activation of the Project Management Unit; (c) costs for recruiting the Technical Assistance Team, and training of key project staff. The advance would be refinanced under the proposed IDA Credit. Proposed Financing 57. The financing of project costs would be as follows: Proposed Financing Plan (US$ Million) Foreign Local Exchange Currency Z of Cost Cost Total Project Cost IDA 4.3 - 4.3 37 IFAD 6.3 - 6.3 54 GOS - 1.0 1.0 9 Total 10.6 0.8 11.6 100 58. IDA financing (US$4.3 million), would meet the costs of the internationally recruited advisors, training, and refinancing of the Project Preparation Advance, all under Part A of the Project. The proposed IFAD loan of US$6.3 million, to be made available to GOS on terms similar to IDA would (i) finance the foreign exchange costs of civil works, vehicles, equipment, supplies, incremental operating expenses of the project (US$1.8 million) under Part A ; and (ii) through a Development Fund (US$4.5 million) finance the strengthening of the veterinary field services (Part B) during Phase II. Effectiveness of the IFAD loan agreement would be a condition of Credit Effectiveness. The GOS's contribution would be about US$1.0 million, equivalent to 9 percent of project cost.3/ It would finance local expenditures for minor civil works and incrementii local operating costs. 3/ Based on token estimates of local and foreign cost elements for Part B activities during Phase II.  - 15 - Project Implementation 59. Project organization and ianagement would be structured to involve primarily existing staff resources of AND in the project area, increase the efficiency and motivation of staff and ensure that when the project terminates, activities initiated under the project are continued as part of a regular AHD program. The responsibility for project implementation would be assigned to a Project Management Unit (PNU) which would be located in Hargeisa but which would be reporting directly to the Director of AND in Mogadishu and a Project Committee to be established within M1Ru. The PMU would include the Technical Assistance Team, be assisted by short-term consultant services in specific areas of investigation and supported by an Inter-Regional Committee, and seek the active involvement by livestock owners and traders in project planning and implementation. Consultants would be recruited according to IDA guidelines. 60. Project ManagMent Unit. The PMU, headed by a Project Director assisted by a Technical Director, an internationally recruited animal health economist, would comprise three sections during Phase I of the project: Field Investigation, Laboratory Services and Administration. Veterinary and laboratory staff currently employed in AND's Regional Veterinary offices in Hargeisa and Burso would be assigned to PMU. During Phase II an additional section would be created for the implementation of the disease control program. The organization, staffing and operation of this section would be determined as part of the MTR. The establishment of PMU and the appointment of a Project Director would be conditions of Credit Effectiveness 4/. Special efforts would be made to retain key professional staff assigned to PHU, and staff trained under the project, throughout its implementation period. 61. The Inter-Regional Committee. To secure cooperation of other Government and non-Government regional institutions, one of the Governors in the project area would chair an Inter-Regional Comittee (IRC) with the Project Director as the Committee Secretary. The IRC would convene quarterly, and have as other members regional representatives of the National Range Agency, a representative of the Animal Production Department of MLFR, AnD's Regional Veterinary Officers in the project area, the Technical Director of PMU, and representatives of livestock owners and traders. The IRC would be formally established by September 30, 1986. 62. The Project Committee. Project implementation would be supervised and monitored by a Project Committee (PC), to be established within MLFR. The PC would be chaired by either the Minister, Vice Minister or the Permanent Secretary of MLFR and include the Director of AwD and representatives from the Planning, Research and Training Department, the National Range Agency and other appropriate agencies. The PC would review quarterly PMU's progress reports and initiate or direct PMU to take action to overcome any bottlenecks that might impede timely or effective project implementation. It would also serve as a coordinating unit for all 4/ Actions expected to be completed by December 31, 1985.  - 16 - projects in the livestock subsector. The establishment of the PC would be a condition of Credit Effectiveness. 63. Involvement of Livestock Owners and Traders. The project's deep involvement with the nomads would require a forum to discuss the nomads' views on existing and proposed delivery systems for veterinary services. To this end, P14U would organize by region, periodic assemblies of livestock owners and seek the involvement of livestock traders particularly in matters relating to planning drug importation and distribution. The PMU would prepare a plan for the organization and interaction with assemblies or groups of livestock owners and traders which would recognize the particular problems in administering livestock health services caused by the mobility of the target group. Such a plan would be submitted to IDA/IFAD for review by November 30, 1986. 64. Mid-Term Review. The purposes of the MTR would be to: (i) review the results of disease investigation and livestock health services planning activities carried out under Phase I; (ii) appraise proposals for a disease control program in the project area; and (iii) formulate a detailed plan, including objectives, activities, costs and institutional arrangements, for the implementation of such a program during Phase II. Recommendations by MTR for the use of the Development Fund to support project activities during Phase II would be reviewed by IFAD which would apply the following criteria in deciding, in consultation with IDA, on the release of the Fund: (a) The main features of a cost effective and economically justifiable disease control program have been identified. (b) Outstanding organizational and management deficiencies within AED can be adequately addressed and remedied during Phase II of the project. Cc) The implementation of a proposed disease control program would not be rendered ineffective by outstanding sector constraints, including those related to export market outlets and available range resources. 65. The MTR would carefully examine the relationship between export marketing prospects for Somali livestock, projected availability of feed resources on ranges and increases in livestock numbezs expected from improved health services to determine whether proposals for a disease control program are compatible with the objective of sustaining the range resources as a source of livestock feed. To this end, PC through PMU would ensure that the necessary liaison be maintained with the USAID Livestock Marketing and Health Project and in particular that the results of the marketing studies of this project be incorporated in MTR. The MTR as structured above, would be completed by December 31, 1989. 66. Project Allowances. Project activities would be conducted in remote locations and under harsh conditions. The morale of AND staff in the project area has been suffering from low salaries and allowances. The  - 17 - project would provide for: (i) an inducement allowance to P(U staff which would substantially raise salaries compared to the current basic malariea paid by lLFR; and (ii) an increased per diem allowance while on field trips to be reviewed annually in light of the civil service structures for salaries and field allowances. Proposed salary and allowance scales would be submitted as part of the annual work program and budget. Sustainability of these financial inducements would depend on the agreement of MLFR to charge p"storalists for all services rendered for their exclusive benefit by veterinary staff. These arrangements would be finalized at the IZR. 67. Drug Tmportation and Distribution. During Phase I, a limited amount of therapeutic drugs would be required to support the disease investigation program. Drugs would be distributed to livestock owners free of charge in return for cooperation received. Procedures for drug importation and distribution required during Phase II to support the implementation of a disease control program would be recommended by PMU for review by MfR. Proposals for private sector drug distribution to be prepared by PMU would address organizational arrangements for importation and financing and onward distribution. 68. Administration. Because of the remoteness of the project area and poor communications with Mogadishu, effective and timely project implementation would require autonomy of PKU in handling project administration matters, including direct access by PMU to project funds. To assist PNU in its financial control of Phase I project activities, the services of the Financial Controller attached to the ongoing IFAD and IDA supported North-West Agricultural Development Project would be obtained on a time-sharing basis. The MTR, in drawing up the implementation plan for Phase II would make appropriate recommendations for further strengthening of administrative and financial control assistance to PMIU. 69. Annual Work Programs. Annual work programs covering all project activities would be the basic management system for the project. They would set targets within the context of overall project objectives and identify methods to be employed and resources required to achieve them. The annual work program would enable PC to review progress, examine proposed activities and make the necessary arrangements for budgetary and other support. It would be submitted to PC by October 1 and to IFAD and IDA by November 1 each year for acceptance to cover the following fiscal year. The initial work program would be prepared by August 15, 1986. Procurement 5, 70. Contracts for vehicles and prefabricated buildings totalling approximately US$1.1 million would be grouped where possible in contracts valued at US$100,000 or more and procured by ICB in accordance with IFAD guidelines. Laboratory and field equipment totalling about US$400,000 and grouped as much as possible would, because of the small number of items under individual equipment categories, be purchased through 5/ Unless otherwise indicated, the values quoted are inclusive of physical and price contingencies.  - 18 - international shopping after obtaining at least three quotations. Minor civil works contracts for building construction and rehabilitation with an estimated total cost of US$100,000 would be let under LCB. All bidding packages for goods and works estimated to cost over US$50,000 would be subject to prior IDA review of procurement documentation. Other contracts would be subject to selective post-award review. The six internationally recruited experts, forming the Technical Assistance Team, as well as short-term consultants, would be engaged by GOS following IDA guidelines. The services of the individual experts of the Technical Assistance Team would be engaged under a single contract to be awarded to a suitable and qualified institution or firm. Disbursements 71. The proposed IDA Credit and IFAD Loan would be administered by IDA under a frame agreement. Disbursements over seven years against project expenditures would be made to meet 100 percent of foreign exchange costs. The disbursement profile for all IDA Eastern Africa Region Credits is nine years, with about 83 percent being disbursed over the first six years. The shorter overall disbursement period of seven years assumed for the project is justified because funds for vehicles, civil works, expatriate services and training would be committed very early in the life of Part A of the project; in addition the use of the Development Fund allocation under Part B, would be identified and funds committed during the fourth year of project implementaticn. 72. Disbursements against all items financed by the IDA Credit and IFAD Loan would be based on full documentation, except the following items: (i) goods costing less than US$10,000 equivalent, (ii) incremental operating costs, (iii) overseas training and (iv) approved contracts involving individual consultants. In these cases only Statements of Expenditures (SOEs) would be requested. Incremental recurrent costs reimbursable under the IFAD Loan would consist of the foreign exchange cost elements of operation and maintenance of vehicles, buildings and equipment procured under the project and the cost of imported drugs. Disbursements of funds under the Development Fund would be contingent on a joint IDA and IFAD decision to release the Fund (para 64). Necessary amendments to the disbursement procedures for expenditures relating to Part B activities would be agreed upon following the recommendations by MTR. 73. To ensure that project activities are not held back by a lack of funds, PMU should have prompt access to the required funds. It would therefore be a condition of Credit Effectiveness that GOS has deposited in the Project's account with a bank acceptable to IDA an advance based on an estimated average of about three months expenditures, involving local currency payments, in the amount of So.Sh. 2.5 million. GOS would replenish the project account quarterly at that level, or such other level as agreed upon, until project completion. Furthermore, GOS would open two special accounts, one for IDA and one for IFAD funds, in foreign exchange in the project's name with the Central Bank of Somalia to enable PMU to disburse without delay. IDA and IFAD would make initial deposits into the special accounts of US$50,000 and US$200,000 respectively.  - 19 - Accounts and Audits 74. The project entity would establish and maintain accounts in accordance with sound and generally recognized accounting principles and practices satisfactory to IDA. The project entity would provide interim and annual financial statements to reflect the financial operations and status of the project. An auditor's opinion and report satisfactory to IDA on the project statements and the special accounts would be provided within six ;;onths after the closing of each fiscal year. The auditor's report would include a statement on the adequacy of the accounting systems and internal controls and on the reliability of SOEs as a basis for disbursements. Independent auditors would be acceptable to IDA. Environmental Impact 75. Additional pressure on range and feed resources could be adverse; hence, the critical need to increase offtake for domestic consumption and export when the disease control program improves livestock productivity and survival. The formulation and implementation of a disease control program for northern Somalia would be linked to the objective of maintaining sustainability of range resources. The project would establish and operate a Range Monitoring Team within PMU and enlist the cooperation of the National Range Agency in the monitoring of range conditions in the project area as a normal part of GOS animal health and range control programs and as a mechanism for permanent feedback into planning of disease control interventions. GOS trade officials and the USAID financed quarantine and marketing project are specifically addressing the issues of export marketing to increase offtake as improvements in animal health services results in reduced losses and increased productivity. These developments would be closely followed by the Project. 76. No toxic elements would be applied to the land. All veterinary vaccines and drugs, to be clearly marked, would be for animal treatment only and their use would have no adverse effect on humans. When successful, a disease control program would have beneficial effects on human nutrition and health and would improve the financial lot of livestock producers. Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting 77. Overall monitoring of project progress would be the responsibility of PC. Duiring Phase I PMU would establish a comprehensive data base covering epidemiological, economic and other information pertineat to disease investigations and livestock health services planning. A plan for monitoring and evaluation of the disease control program in Phase II would be prepared by PMU and reviewed by MTR. 78. The PHU would prepare and submit quarterly progress reports through PC to IFAD and IDA according to an agreed format. A report covering the findings of Phase I activities and detailed proposals for Phase !I activities would be submitted by PHU to the same agencies by September 30, 1989. Agreement by GOS mn the timing and specific areas to  - 20 - be covered by the report wes reached during negotiations. The PMU would also prepare a project completion report no later than six months after the completion of the project. Benefits 79. The project would aim at strengthening AED's technical and organizational capabilities in planning animal health improvement in northern Somalia. Such strengthening, leading to the formulation and implementation of an economically justifiable and cost effective disease control strategy, would in the longer term result in benefits to the livestock subsector in the form of reduced economic losses of livestock and livestock products due to animal disease. They would translate into incremental earnings of livestock owners, pastoralist households and livestock traders, as well a6 increased foreign exchange earnings to the country. 80. Incremental project benefits would start accruing under Phase II of the project with the implementation of a disease control program. They are at this stage not quantifiable since (i) there is an absence of reliable baseline data on livestock mortality and mrbidity rates in the project area (to be remedied under Part A of the project); and (it) they would be dependent on the nature and scope of the disease control prograu and its associated investment and implementation costs which would be determined as part of project activities during Phase I. Thus, the project as proposed does not lend itself to an economic rate of return analysis at this stage. However, such analysis would form part of MTR. Risks 81. Basic risks inherent in the project are: ka) Border Security. Minimization of this risk Is the function of local government and police and armed forces and includes prudent reporting and prior clearance of staff movements in sensitive areas. (b) Herd Movement. Contacts may be lost with predesig4ated herds selected for monitoring and control. Remedies would include branding or tagging of selected herds and appointment of para-veterinary personnel to live with migrant owners. (c) Staffing. Because of the remoteness of the area, harsh working conditions and distance from the main seat of power and promotion, it is difficult to attract and retain qualified local staff over the long term for project implementation. The proposed salary incentives and the provision of facilities and transport should help to ameliorate this problem. (d) Market Outlets. A successful animal health disease control program resulting in reduced mortality and morbidity could jeopardize range resources and increase drought risk if not  - 21 - accompanied by an increased offtake for internal consumption or export. The GOS, with support from a USAID funded project, is exploring increased, diversified market outlets to minimize the risk of overstocking and range degradation. The proposed project would have little or no impact on the size of animal herd during the investigatory stage (Phase I). Furthermore, even if a veterinary services stage (Phase II) were to prove highly successful in controlling disease, it is unlikely that there would be any rapid build-up of numbers in the face of the normal over-riding factor of low nutrition and poor general husbandry. However, following MTR, release of funds for a disease control program under Phase II would be contingent, inter alia, on GOS demonstrating the ability to raise livestock exports to levels offsetting livestock increases resulting from improved animal health services, drawing on the findings of the USAID study. PART V - RECOMMENDATION I am satisfied that the proposed credit would comply with the Articles of Agreement of the Association and recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed credit. Attachments A. W. Clausen President December 12,1985 Washington D.C.  4~~~~~~~~~~~ a2a  . . _ - 23 - Annex I LLJi. Page 1 of 7 WIgstkIU.I~ ~ RECENT lIIW l -- -- E6TINTE& 00UN IN9N MAnIC *1NVS6V55a OWES OMiTS M36) ..M..O230. 236.6 1063.# (KILOSAIS 0?f UZI. NQUhALbht) 11.0 25.0 15.0 62.2 561.3 1M2 SD 123.3326= mowuun a (w.hf.am ) 2430.0 246.0 POUZATIONWID:l Crd=N) 24SL0 34L0 bO . 1313 POPlAWhW ng TO tAL) 17.3 23.1 32.3 20.1 32.0 nPguunz ponen P0MATI D In TM1 2000 CUL) 6.3 STAlS1IIOULAIO (WILT.) 31.0 POIUTACOU "Olow= L.9 wO 1 0uaTsC II atn. nx SQ. M. 3.6 3.4 6.0 33.2 03.1 M SQ. St. AGR. ULD .2 11.6 16.3 112.3 12 PaOtOATNo MMR=X CZ01=() 0-14 us 44.7 *7.5 4.6 46.0 43.6 1-6 MJ 52.4 50.5 32.5 50. 51.3 655 *0 A 2.7 1.9 2.6 2.9 2.7 stun moz r 1 TOML 1.8 3.3 3U 2.6 2.9 031*3 0.9 6.3 3.6 6.4 5.1 cm= am1 aum (ITWO) 50.1 50.1 u.s 47.2 *7.0 WS mm USt (Mt MU) 23.9 2S.3 20.3 17.3 13.0 Cmo _ Saonuno IATZ 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3. LOUOS 433231 (tD0) .. .... 1 UiCndIEoiU n[ (tOM) .. .. 2.0 3.3 6. TM AnaniFn MU Of wroaD uzOO6 ax CAPITA C1969-71-100) 97.0 1o.0 *0.0 63.3 U9 CZ w orIoumUt) 76.0 70.0 94.0 67.7 965 C(am U VA) N 7.0 51.0 68.0 51.9 35.4 or 3R5 ANU. SMD 1U3 7.0 40.0 38.0 1t 1i7 0.5 cma CAM 1-4) us am 3a.9 35.1 30.0 23.1 16.6 L1 ElECT. AT CU M) 35.0 37.2 44.3 47.6 SL0 DIWAS ICM . RAI CM15' 20) 175.0 153.5 142.0 119.3 106.6 TOTAL t5.0 33.0 A 2.1 42. R .. 17.0 36.07j 63.5 67.3 U3AL . 14.0 21.6 A 19.3 3S8 A==S TO IC&DXSOUIL (Z Of ImATIS) TOTAL .. .. .- 26.3 2s6 VIM*3 .. .. .. 63.4 57.7 SODA! .. .. .. 20.6 2M? iOiLATIUS it amXCA 36570.0 26230.0 15630.0 4 27901.7 11791.7 PO. 115 0331N0 i330 410.0 4570.0 2550.0 JW 30L64 245a.8 VW. "a ROSPITaL M TOTAL 690.0 71k.0 h0.0 aIC 1273.6 982.1 D lUNAR 140.0 300.0 . 426.2 368.8 Ula 5640.0 7400.0 .. 3292.3 4371.9 AssIu PMK HSeIL MM 27.2 0 Imes= LaISE= SE OF OUOSUOIf TOMaL .. aS ........ EZUAL .. .. 35.5 3/c LARSAg NO. 0F WUSOShiS* tlTUL .. ...... WU1* .. ...... .A .... WhiZw or fUILIS XX CRC!a. TOTL .. ... _a .._ .~~ .._  - 24 - Annex I T A H L R A Page 2 of 7 SOMALIA - SOCIAL INDICATOrS DATA SNHST SOIALIA REFERENCE GROUPS (WIQIT AWRGS) Is. MOST (MUST RECw SSuT) / RECERT LW lNCUS AFRIA MIDLE lDCLL 196igw 19701b. ESThIA SOUH OF bANARA AnRCA S. UF SAHAA ADJUSTED ENKDOLIMET RATIOS PRIIAL: TOTAL 9.0 11.0 3U.U Id 67.8 95.7 MALE 13.0 17.0 38.0 d 77.6 100.0 FEMALE 5.0 5.0 21.0 i;r 54.9 83.2 SECONDARY: ITOAL 1.0 5.0 11.0 7d 13.5 17.3 MALE 2.0 8.u 16.0 71 17.9 25.0 FEMALE .. 2.0 6.0 Id 9.1 14.8 VOCATIONAL CZ OF SECONUAIW) 26.4 3.1 17.6 /d 13.2 5.9 PUPIL-TEACHER RATIO PRIAIW 29.0 33.0 33.0 /d 44.9 41.1 SECONDARY 20.0 24.0 21.0 7d 27.4 25.5 COI_rCFTON PASSENGER CARSITHOUSAND POP 1.1 2.0 .. 3.8 20.8 RADIO RECEVERS/THOUSAND POP 9.8 14.4 25.9 55.8 107.3 TV RECEIVERS7THOUSAND POP .. *- *- 2.6 20.8 NEUSPA ("AILY CENtRAL INTEREST") CIRCULATION PER THOUSAND POPULATION O.8 1.4 .. 5.0 18.4 CINEM ANNUAL ATENDANCE/CAPrrA 0.6 1.4 .. 0.5 0.4 LAt RVol= TOTAL UAEOR FORCE (TUlOUI) 1007.0 1331.0 1a15.0 FEMALE (PERCENT) 29.4 29.0 28.0 34.2 36.2 AGRICULTURE (PERCENT) 88.0 85.0 82.0 /d 77.5 54.5 INDUSTRY (PERCT) 4.0 6.0 8.O 7d 9.7 18.3 PAErTCIPATION RATE (MERCENT) TOTAL 41.1 38.5 35.7 39.3 36.8 HALE 58.7 55.2 52.3 50.9 47.1 FEMALE 23.9 22.0 2u.6 28.1 27.2 ECONOMIC DPEPNDENCI RtInO 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 TJ DIfRInUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE LIONE RECEIVED 8 RICHEST 5S OF ROUSEHOLDS .. HIGTHESr 2O0 OF HOUSEOLDS .. LOWEST 20Z OF HOUSEHOLDS . . LOWES? 401 OF HOUSEHOLDS .. ESTIMATED ABSOLErE POVEny IECOM? LEEL (USS PER CAPITA) RBNa .. .. 150.0 le 165.5 5Y0.7 RIRAL .. .. 110.0 95.0 275.3 ESTIMATED RELATVE POVEr INCISE LEVEL CUSS PER CAPrrA) URBAN .. .. o5.0 1 113.1 545.6 RURAL .. .. 50.07 67.6 201.1 ESTIMLED POP. MEI ABSOLUTE POVERITY INCOME LEVEL (S) URBAN .. .. 40.0 Io 36.6 RURAL .. .. 70.0 7w 61.8 NOT AVAILABLE DOT APPLICABLE N O T 1C S a The grp averages for each indicator are populartlnrvlfed arithmetic asons Oanrqs of cinatrlaS among the indicators depends on avilability of data ad Is not uniform. /b Unless otherise noted. "Data for 1960r refer to any year betwee 1959 ad 2961; 'Data for 1970" betmn 1969 and 1971; snd data for "fot Recent Estiate" betwen 1981 nd 1983. /c 1977; /d 1980; le 1978. JUhR* 1985  - 25- Atex I Pag 3of 7 DUINTKOS OF SOCIL INDIC&TOU NOW Ailfbugh l datsa m dawnit m mum gpnrllyjudped hb mit atomus med nerUeable. It boM aWm ke noed thdaty mayn he lumAlonaly -mPMWb be of the bck d sma.durdl delales ma e ncou ue by delm aemm Is olhenug *A d. Td e dw netauhdail.e. w dumb o rdereof magtude i1mma.and uamrmam u mjodi -ne betwe counaa The re ipawn pf r iI I Ike em county go of tile eu11t country and 12 a meauy go with mbwham Nohr awrp im1m than b e_ry Stomp of_hembjtcrryt_ teepr -Hlgb lnm l Obpoer proup wre -Mld u tdd e In ae h AflAcad Mdl KW Is ch.esbe_ _due ofeWor Issmhubd afImt [a Lbe bmfcr vnp dwa dwc 6"r an pepWul uen d mgnic _sm for siel MdM ad e oly whl amprwy n munartewo m a vngroup daa or that lmOlemr. Enneetcoverpae fomseangmIne lndlaoends on aewmalltyordtaand 1et uniform I creIon mlUm te ebre m relsungsinru ete o ne Isdlmzor to maletr. ibm avaae aeonly useul in toapnlrng th v1m ou oder Idlcarate a elm mntng ! e coutry ad 0r re m AREA (thousad sq.kmH Cruder hi Ra (per hoisad)-Numbar of live births in the year rasaI-Total surfacama compnsifng lad ara and inland watem per tbound of mkid-yar popuatiOI 10. IM0 and I9 dat 1960. 1970 and 19S3 datL . Cmd DOet Aso (pr rhowasil)-Number of daft in th yer ,. Apkiebral--Estimate of aricultural usd empomrily o per thousad of mid-year popplaonw IffO,M and 1913 data. PEimnMy for cropL pastures. market and kihen grdens or to Grm rpAdu A _-Averge number of daugh mn lie filow. 1960. 1970 and 1982 data, wi bear n bar mal productive piod if dh expaien present ag4pecilk fentility rae: usually fiv-yar averages ending GCP PER CAPITA (USS)-NP per capia etmat at curnt in 1960.1970. .d 1913. market prices, calculated by same convemson method as World Fmg A.... I 1 qts A.me, asiailr--Anal numn- Batn Atlas (19B143 basis)j 1983 datL b c ofbirb-controldevices under auspicesornational LNERGY CONSUMPIMON PER CAPITA-Annual appart mulv planing proanm consumption of commcdil primary enry (coal and lignite. Fib Pbssmhr ws (p,eajfavkd mwaee-Thc peren- petroleum. natural ps and hydro-. nuclear and geoemal luc- tage of male wmef childbering age who ane pnrtiin or trcty) in kilom or oil equivalent per capita 1960. 1970. and whose husbands are practiig any form ofconttaedo. Women 1982 data of child.bearing age ar gnmely women aed 15-49. although for some countrie contaceptive usae is meaured for otkr age POPUATION ALND VITAL STATSTCS grouLps Tota Pt983a des.Md-Yar ftieasasj-As of luly 1: 1960. 197. FOOD AND ZNUITRION and 1933 data. UrSa Ayaamua(perear f taaf)-atioof uban o toai IdezfFbaedivedaeie wmCapiea(1969-71 -160)--Idex of per Urhw Popmhdi fintin of uRaaro of urban to total capita annual productuon of all food commodities. Prod euon epndatior: dHint dchtions of urban areas may affect emepar- xcludes animal reed and sed for agriculwc. Food commodites abilky of data among counrines 60. 1970. and 1913 data. ichlde pnrmay commodities le. sugarcane intead of supri popatd p which are edible and contain nutuients tes. coffee nd te are Popdarfoa in yea 2000-WThe projection of population for 2000. xuludedl. rhey comprise cereals. root Crop5. puLes. oil secds. made for each economy separatelv. Startng with information on vegetables friis, nuts suparcane and suipr beet livestock. and total populaion by age and sex. fcrilit ras mortaity mrs. and livestock products Aggega producton of each country is based interaiona migration n the base year 1980. thee pameters on national average producer price weighs: 1961-65. 1970. and wer projected at five-year intervals on the basis of geneaized 1912 dat. unprs undl the population bacame sonar. P C-pit- S&pp of CalaDias (pwrcet qfeqeir- ni-Cosput- Sonayvpopulton-lIs one in which ay and sex-specific nor- ed from calorie quivale of net food supplis available in countr taliy r have not changed over a long priod. wle age-specifc per capia per day. Available supplies compnse domtic produc- feblity rats have smultanously remined at replacement lve tion. imports less exports and cAage in stok Net supolies (net reproduction rate-;). In such a populaion the birth rae is xclude animal feed. seeds for use in agricultur quanti ued in constant and equal to the death rae the age structre is also food processg. and losses in distribuion. Requirements wer, constant. and the growth rae is zero. The staonary populaion estimated by FAO based on physiological needs for normal aczivitn size was estimated on the basis of the projected characteristics of and health considering environmental temperatur bodv weights. the population in the year 2000. and the rate of decine of fertility age and sex distribution of populationL and allowing IO percent for rate to replacement lkvd. waste at household level: 1961. 1970 and 1912 data. PopsJd. Mom -ts the tendency for population growth to Pfr Capmr Sapply of FPora (pane pef dAy -Protein content of continue beyond the tiut tha replacement4evel retity has been per capit net spply of food per day. Net supply of food is defined achieved: that is. even after the net reproduction rate ha reached as above. Requirements for all countries esablished by USDA unity. The momentum of a population in the yaw t is measured as provide for minimum alowances of 60 grams of total protein per a ratio of the ulima stationary populaion to the population in day and 20 grams of animal and pulse protein. of which 10 grams the year r. given the assumption that ferility remain at replae- should be animal proein. These standardsarc lower than those of ment tevel from year r onward. 1915 data 75 grams of tot protein and 23 gams of aimal protein as an Pwopar.. Djjsi;j averag for the wordd, proposed by FAO in the Third World Food Per sqJkm.-Mid-ycar population per squac Idtometer I 100 bec- Supply: 1961. 1970 and 19S2 datm tares) of total arca 1960. 1970. and 1913 data. Ar Came hwrm Supply Flam Ami ad hire-Protein supply Per sqkm agrkcrdhrltu rd-Computed as above for agrcultural of food derived from animals and pulses in grams perday. 1961-65. land only. 1960. 1970. and 1982 dat. 1970 and 1977 dat. Poplari.n Ag Stuciwe (p5rert)-Children (0-14 yars). work- Ch (geg -4j Dath Re(pe r_adj-umber of deaths of ing age (15-64 years). and retired l65 yesrs and over) as percncage chiltdrn aged 14 years per thousand children i the same age of mid-year populaton 1960. 1970. and 1913 data group in a givt year. For most developing countries data derived P &palkrien Growth Rate (pereenri-rowea--Annua1 growth razes of from life tabies 1960. 1970 and 1913 dat. tota mid-yr population for 1950-60. 1960-70. and 1970-83. HEALTH PIpaSae Growt Rate (percrst)-.rtaw--Annual growth rates Life Expecramcy at Birt fewsj-Number of years a newbom of urban popuation for 1950-60. 1960-70. and 1970-83 data infant would live if prevailing pattems of mortlity for all people  -26- Annex I Page 4 of 7 at mb tini of of its birth wem to stay the sae throughout its life Pup-.eacher rtati - primy. mid secondary-Toal students, en- 1940. 1970 and 1983 daa. roled in pnmsry and secondary kvels divided by numbers of liuf a,mEt RAm (pff thaamd).-Number of infants who die teace in the corresponding level. before reaching one yr of ae per thousand live births in a given year; 1960.197 ad 1913 dat. CONSUMFrION Ace Re Si* Wow (puce of jepold1eu-4etld. wha, ad vJser C's Imr amswd peJindea)-Pssenger car com- rual-Number or people itote!. rbui and rural) with reasonable piw motor can ating 1s than cight persmo: excludes ambul- accsSto sae water supply IXciddes treated surrfc wae or accs. hearses and mdiniry vhcles. untreated but uncontmnted wsier such as tha tfm protcted Rado RAeivers rpmr ths dpepuladonj-A tllypes aof reeivers borhole sprins and sanimry weils) as percentages of their repec- tor radio broadcasts so general public per thousand of population: tive populions In an urban arma a public fountin or tpost excludes un-licnsd remvmrs in countrie, and in yern when logmed not more than 200 mc-rs from a house may be c o istration of raaio sets was in effec data for recent years may a being withio rceonable acces of that house. In rural es not be compaable sin most countries abolished licensing. reuomabic le would imply that !e housewife or member of the houseihold do not have to spend a diproportionate pan of the lay TYVRret lVr(pr r _pepu -T n reeives for broadcast m f ching the funily waur ueea. to gcneral public per thousamn population: esclud unlicensed TV fething the ly f rtetd. urban raeceiven in counts and in yea when registration of TV sem wa Amcsi to Exuam Disposa (Percenrt of pou d.jtel ra, in enfecL md ma l-Number of people (total. urban. and rnal) serwved by esenea disposal as paeensgo of their respective populations. "Ppuer O dl (p tosadpopularap-Shows the aver- Excrm dipsl may include the collection and disposal. with or age ciculation at dally genral interest newspae" defined as a without tement, of human excreta and waste-water by water- peridical publinaton devoted primarily to recording general news. borne sysm or the use of pit privies ands rinlai It is conerd wo be -daily' ifit appeas at ls ftour tmes am we. Auph_a. pr Physiiaw-_Popatiton divided by number of prac- CGemaa Ama! Aaendau per Capia eo Yea-Based on the oing phyins qualfied from amdil school at univity level, number of ti sold dunng the yean including admisions wo hpakria per Narsq Pawso-Population divided by number of drive4mn cnemas and mobile units practn male and female graduate nurscs. assistant nOrses practcal nurses and nusing auxiliarie.BOR FORCE kp.Iuiu. pa-r Hsital Bmi-wa!. -ab. and rar -Popalation Tot Labor Frc (hoadsi-Econorrcally acive person in- (totaL urban and rual) divided by their respective number of eluding armed forces and unemployed but excluding housewives. hbsptal beds availai in pub&iic and pate geeral and scedents. etc-. covering population of all ags Definitions in hospitals and rehabiltation centes Hospit are lvaus countses am z comprabl; 1960. 1970 and 1983 data. permanendy staffed by at least one ph l Fs prov- Fasaalk t(prcenu-Female Labor force as percentage of total labor icing prin lly cusodial cae am not included. Rural hospitals, force howeve incde h alth and medce not pemanenty saffed A4guca* (pacrm)-Labor force in famng forestry. hunting by a physician (but by a meic;-al stat:. nurse, midwife. etc.) and fishing as permae of totl labor forcez 1960. 1970 and 1930 which offer iwpatient accommoda_on and provide a limimed rang data. of wAdical fadlit idsry (prciart)-Labor force in mining consruction. manu- Adndrshn per Hospa BRd-Total number of admisions to or factunng and electricity. water and gPs as percentage of total labor discharges from hospitals divided by the number of beds foree 1960. 1970 and 1980 dat. Piurticoatki Rate (jecet)-total au. aadfeaa-Participatzon HOUSING or activity razes ar computed as totalm and female labor force A.We Se of How%M (pera p- pkw household)-eotal -han, as percentages of ttal male and femal populaion of all ags _drww-A husehold consists of a group ofindividuals who share respectiveiy 1960. 1970, and 1983 data. These are based on [LOas hiving quartrs and thir main eals A boarder or lodger may or partcipation rtes reflecting age-sex structure of the populaton and may not be included in the household for statistical purposL long time trnd A few estmaes are from national sources AvenFg Number of Pawoas pa Ro.,-toraL n_b. and rural- Emonu Depedency Ratio-Ratio of population under 15. and Average number of persons pc room in all urban, and rua 65 and over, to th working age population (those agd 1544). occupied conventional dwelings respectively. Dwellings exclude oon-pemanent strucnues and unoccupied parts. INCOME DISTREIETION P anrge of ODu r mfb ESw&icity-war4 urb, and ruwa- Percammage of Tota Disposabk lcu (both cas and kind)- Conventional dwdElings with eectncity in lving quarters as percen- Accrung to prentile groups of households ranked by total house- sage of totaL urban, and rural dlling respectively. hold income. EDLCATIOiN POVERTY TARGET GROlUPS Admid E i 2se ,, Rat- The followmng estimates arm very approimate measures of poverty Pmbar shovol - road. ma mid female-r totaL r and levels. and should be Uinreted with considerable caurion. femak enment of all ages at the primary l-vel as perentages of Eruated Absohite Povrty inco Leve (I'S par cap -al rant rpe pve pmtary schoo-age populations. Wile many counnies and nawl-Absolute poverty income level is that income levd cosider primary school age to be 6-11 years. others do not. The below which a minimal nutritionally adequate dit plus essential differences in country practices in the age and duration of school non-food requirements is not affordable. are releted in the ratios given. For some counlrieS with universal ui,maed Rel.v PIbea Incore Lord f G per capiak-war educatio gros erollment may exceed 100 pe smt since some a rzr&l-Rural relative poverty incom klvel is one-tdird of pupils arc below or abowe the countsis sandard prmary-school avergc per capita personal income of the country. Urban level is age. derived from the rual level with adjustmen for higher cost of Secondnuy shool - towi, mae aid femak-Computed as above living in urban areas secondary education requires at Least four years of approved pr- Eummed Popeuk Belw Absolwte Pfvrty bwsco Levl (per- mary instrucsi: provides geeraL vocionaL or teacher trauning cnr)-arhan nd rural- Percent of populaion (urban and rural insuctions for pupils ually of 12 to 17 year of age correspond- who arm -absolurc poor.- once course ac generaly cxdclded Vocanowla Enroent (percent of secondary)-Vocational insitu- Comparative Analysis and Data Division uons iclude technicaL indusuiaL or other progams which operate Economic Analysis and Projecions Department independently or as deparctents of secondary instutions. June 1985  - 27 - 27~~~~~~~~~~~~~ oa---f 7 ONALA COID DAM ECOMOC Zadicatord QG Per Caplta - US$266 (1982) 11 Aml Note of Gawth of GOP GsS NATWIOI PRODCT MT is I/l at Constt Factor cost () (Plmeal YTm) lS$ Ms18. 2 1977-1 1 1982 GP at !lket Pries 1339.1 100.0 -3.0 4.4 8.5 Znwestment 267.5 20.0 Resource Blanc -292.6 21.9 Ixport of Goods and MS 152.4 11.4 Ipowt of Goods -d BFS 484.2 36.2 OUTPU IN F1f982 Value Added usmu - Agriculture 595.4 49.9 Industry 133.4 11.2 services 462.8 38.9 1249.6 100.0 CE GOVEMWI PMONCE 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 (Mllo1 I So. Sh.) (Ra. Est.) Total Revenue 1526 1421 2263 2760 4075 3971 current KZPeMdture 1573 1670 2295 2750 4470 7965 Currait Surplus or Deficit (-) -47 -249 -32 10 -395 -3994 Other EpqgcoIituzPi 21 1684 1462 1425 2616 2097 3299 Overall Defliit 1731 1771 1457 2626 2492 7293  -28- Anex Z Pap 6 of I 1979 130D 11 1961 19 1if 13g B _boduif CfU (10-b) O ' 133 114 LT 10 so Niufata, mv1m -12 -6 -1 9 4 .43 ad finm 1S, Mt kdu um , 36 57 64 11 19 2 n - - - A - - .a = mmlm X UD m U OUU:d a1 Md 5 143 10 57 146 177 z ssse ~~~4 - - _ _ ofl1a.t 64 ay 79 123 lC 46 anc at pad t- 4 30 34 44 .4 z adds1 dm 19 V 3 -3 -14 10 om]1 h1-d-2 1 -10 .4 -101 nu~~~~ wu ,masin -a 1z 1973 to Jo 30, 33 * 5.00 - b. 6.295 July Is M6-3m 309 LSU A d6.1 =&V oId s o.. 6.5 (for m_a Sqmu) w- 6 2L2590 (fwarU oP fado Ju17 1, L92-Oct. 22, L9U - 9Sa. 15.W2 -O ct. 23, L904opt. 14, L964 - o.%. 17.55 S4pt. 1, 1961-. 31, 1911 - s.ab. 26.0 Jm. 1, 195 2J - So.a 36.00 7tw ip-MOMfcw 179-Si ad 1964 lInltI= P Valia lepam. 2fgsfor abinut aU lva~ts temot Is datnad in a fzm fmtip - -  - 29 - Annex I Page 7 of 7 mmED, t ND PR=I5 Dec. De. DE. DW. De. Dec. 1979 1980 1981 192 193 (it h ITion o.-Sh.) _a* Claim cn Guezt (net) 1,231 1,9w 2,250 2,100 1,809 4,378 Bwk dal n Prdute Setor ad *:buC ateprli 1,726 1,977 2,296 2,924 3,456 5,238 muy awly 2,335 2,783 3,674 4,108 4,309 6,933 (Nt- . of T1M Nahmr) ki Prloe 1 (1977-100) 136.2 217.1 33.4 384.2 54.O 1,007.0 Auml Perimtap Qw4 In Gmral Pu m 23.8 59.4 64.4 22.6 36.6 92.0 Buk calm Priv Sec ad PRbbllcx 'tpz