Liberia - Third Highway Project

Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY [EPY Report No. 4903 PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA THIRD HIGHWAY PROJECT LOAN 1156-LBR January 23, 1984 Western Africa Regional Office Transportation Division I This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.   FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT LIBERIA: THIRD HIGHWAY PROJECT (LOAN 1156-LBR) TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. Preface .j... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i Basic Data Sheet. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii Highlights. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v Tables 1. Actual and Appraisal Estimates of Project Cost (in US$ '000). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii 2. Schedule of Disbursements (as of November 30, 1982). . . ix Section 1. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Section 2. BACKGROUND OF THE PROJECT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Section 3. THE THIRD HIGHWAY PROJECT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Section 4. PROJECT COST ESTIMATES AND FINANCING . . . . . . . . . . 9 Section 5. EXECUTION AND ANALYSIS OF PROJECT. . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Section 6. COMPLETION TIME, COSTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND PERFORMANCE OF BORROWER AND CONSULTANTS. . . . . . . . 26 Section 7. ECONOMIC REEVALUATION OF PEOPLES' BRIDGE AND THE UNITED NATIONS DRIVE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Section 8. ECONOMIC REEVALUATION OF TOTOTA-GANTA ROAD . . . . . . . 35 Tables Annexes A. Terms of Reference for the Transport Economist Position .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 B. List of Technical Reports. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 C. Borrower Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Maps IThis document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.   REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA THIRD HIGHWAY PROJECT (LOAN 1156-LBR) PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT Preface This report presents a completion evaluation of the Third Highway Project in Liberia for which Loan 1156-LBR for US$27.5 million was approved on August 28, 1975. Co-financing was provided by the African Development Bank (US$6.0 million) and the Overseas Development Administration (UK) funded some technical assistance (US$230,000). A draft Project Completion Report was prepared by the executing agency, the Ministry of Public Works (MPW) in November 1981. The draft was discussed during a subsequent supervision mission after which it was finalized by MPW and officially submitted to the Bank on July 30, 1982. No separate mission was undertaken for the preparation of this report. After review by the West African Region and OPS it was concluded that, apart from a few minor discrepancies (paragraphs 2 and 6 of Highlights section), there were no differences of substance between the views of the Bank and the Government and that the report provided a comprehensive evaluation of project implementation. Therefore, it was decided to use the Government's report as the basis for the PCR with the Preface, Basic Data Sheet and Highlights sections, and updated Cost and Disbursement tables added by WAPTI; Government's comments on these additions have been taken into account. The Government report was not edited to allow full presentation of its views, although the names of consultants and contractors were deleted in accordance with World Bank policy and in agreement with the Government. In accordance with the revised procedures for project performance audit reporting, this Project Completion Report was read by the Operations Evaluation Department (OED) but the project was not audited by OED staff.   - ii - REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA THIRD HIGHWAY PROJECT (LOAN 1156-LBR) PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT Basic Data Sheet KEY PROJECT DATA Item Appraisal Actual or Current Expectation Estimate Total Project Cost (US$ million) 46.7 46.5 Underrun (%) Loan Amount (US$ million) 1/ 27.5 27.5 Disbursed at: 12/31/79 27.5 18.1 11/30/82 -- 27.0 Cancelled 0.5 Repaid at 10/31/82 -- 1.2 Outstanding at 10/31/82 -- 25.7 2/ Date of Project Completion 12/31/78 5/82 Proportion Completed at 12/31/78 (%) 98 3/ 58 3 Proportion of Time Overrun (%) -- 75 Economic Rate of Return(%) Johnson Street Bridge 16.1 19.2 UN Drive 36.0 34.6 Totota-Ganta Road 38.0 24.1 Weighted Average 33.7 25.4 1/ Co-financing was provided by AfDB (about US$6 million) and ODA/UK (about US$0.2 million) 2/ US$22.7 million at current exchange rates 3/ Proportion disbursed   - iii - Cumulative Estimated and Actual Disbursements (US $ million) FY76 FY77 FY78 FY79 FY80 FY81 FY82 FY83 Estimated 9.1 19.4 26.2 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 Actual 4.0 8.0 12.2 17.7 20.9 24.3 26.4 27.0 Actual/Estimated (%) 44 41 47 64 76 88 96 98   - iv - REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA THIRD HIGHWAY PROJECT (Ln. 1156-LBR) PROJECT COMPLFTITn REPORT Other Project Data Item Original Plan Revisions Actual or Estimated Actual First Mention in Files 05/07/73 Appraisal 11/12/74 Negotiations 07/23-24/75 Board Approval 08/21/75 Loan Agreement Date 08/28/75 Effectiveness Date 10/14/75 Closing Date 12/31/79 12/31/80 03/31/82 06/30/81 Borrower Republic of Liberia Executing Agency Ministry of Public Works Fiscal Year of Borrower July 1 - June 30 Follow-on Projects: Project Fourth HighwayProject Loan Number 1573 - LBR Loan Amount (US$ million) 13.8 Loan Agreement Date 06/02/78 Project Feeder Roads Project Loan Number 1664 - LBR Loan Amount (US$ million) 10.7 Loan Agreement Date 04/04/79 Project Monrovia Urban Development Project Credit Number Cr. 1223 Loan Amount (US$ million) 10.0 Loan Agreement Date 04/21/82 MISSION DATA Month No. of No. of Man Date of Item Sent by Year Weeks Persons Veeks Report Preparation WAPHW 09/74 1.0 2 2.0 10/30/74 Appraisal WAPHW 11-12/74 3.0 3 9.0 08/05/75 Supervision I WAPHW 12/75 1.0 2 2.0 02/10/76 Supervision II WAPHW 06/76 1.0 1 1.0 08/04/76 Supervision III WAPHW 11-12/76 2.5 3 7.5 01/12/77 Supervision IV WAPHW 03/77 1.0 1 1.0 03/18/77 Supervision V WAPHW 12/78 1.0 3 3.0 01/29/79 Supervision VI WAPHW 03/79 2.0 2 4.0 05/07/79 Supervision VII WAPHW 10-11/79 2.0 2 4.0 12/21/79 Supervision VIII WAPHW 03/80 3.0 1 3.0 05/23/80 Supervision IX WAPHW 12/80 2.0 1 2.0 12/31/80 Supervision X WAPHW/RMWA 02/81 1.0 2 2.0 2/23&3/10/81 Supervision XI WAPTI 11/81 1.5 3 4.5 12/17/81 Supervision XII RMWA 01/82 0.5 1 0.5 02/01/S2 Supervision XIII WAPTI/RMWA 03-04/82 2.5 2 5.0 04/26/82   REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA THIRD HIGHWAY PROJECT (LOAN 1156-LBR) PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT Highlights 1. The project was successfully completed within the cost estimates although with a 2.5 year delay. The purpose of the Third Highway Project was to assist the Government in the implementation of its first Five Year Road Maintenance and Development Program launched at an international donors conference in Monrovia in 1972. The project originally provided for the construction of a major artery and bridge in Monrovia, and reconstruction and surfacing of an important section of the major highway connecting Monrovia with the interior; establishment of a feeder roads unit and construction or improvement of feeder roads in support of the IDA financed Lofa County Agricultural Development Project (Cr. 577-LBR); feasibility studies for further upgrading of the main highway to the interior; an urban development study for Monrovia; detailed design for a secondary road just outside Monrovia; and technical assistance for the road transport planning unit. During implementation the project was modified: the intended detailed design study for the proposed road improvement was dropped for lack of economic justification while another detailed design for a bridge access road was added, and one technical assistance position for the planning unit was substituted for three fellowships. 2. All components of the revised project were fully implemented except for the feeder roads; 87 percent of the targeted mileage had been achieved when implementation of the follow-up Feeder Roads Project started in early 1980 and took over. Total project expenditure remained just within the appraisal estimate despite a long delay in project completion. The PCR reports substantial cost overruns on a number of project items based on comparing actual costs with initial contract amounts; comparing actual costs with appraisal estimates shows an underrun of 2 per- cent for the combined civil works by contract; an underrun of 43 percent for the feeder road unit; and an overrun of 52 percent for the combined consultants' services for contract supervision due to protracted execution. 3. The project suffered a two and a half year delay, primarily because the three year contract for a major civil works item, the construction of the Totota-Ganta road, took five and a half years to complete. The delays were caused by: the initial poor site organization   - vi - of the contractor; inclement weather; late payment of local share of invoices due to budgetary constraints following the deterioration of the country's economic condition; occasional unavailability of construction materials in the country; and disruptions following the coup d'etat of April 1980. The Bank financed section of the Totota-Ganta road was completed in February 1979 but the Bank agreed to meet from the loan surplus the foreign element of the cost overrun on the AfDB financed section. 4. The contractor for the Totota-Ganta road submitted claims for a total of US$11.8 million for extra works, payment delays, civil disturbances and non-availability of materials. The Government negotiated a settlement with the contractor agreeing to US$3.5 million additional compensation. The claim settlement was reflected in an amendment to the contract which was signed without seeking Bank concurrence. Bank staff, after reviewing the claims and the supervising consultants' claims analysis, considered only US$1.6 million justified and disbursed on this basis. Due to budgetary constraints the Government was unable to meet its commitments under this and other civil works contracts in a timely manner and issued promissory notes instead. The Bank, considering the exceptional circumstances, raised no objection to this approach but urged the Government to eliminate the payment arrears as soon as possible by postponing new highway investments, to which the Government agreed. 5. The three fellowship candidates successfully completed their studies. Two graduates are presently occupying senior positions in the Ministry. The other took up the position of managing director of the Monrovia Transit Authority and subsequently went into the private sector. 6. The PCR re-estimation of the economic rates of return for the civil works items is overstated: it compares construction costs in 1975 prices with road user benefits expressed in prices of the year of opening of the facility. Recalculated rates of return using the same base year for costs and benefits are satisfactory and compare as follows with the appraisal estimates: Economic Rate of Return (%) Appraisal Ex-post Johnson Street Bridge 16.1 19.2 UN Drive 36.0 34.6 Totota-Ganta Road 38.0 24.1 Weighted Average 33.7 25.4 The reduced overall rate of return is primarily the result of the lower return on the Totota-Ganta road caused by the completion delay and lower than anticipated traffic growth due to the unfavorable economic climate and travel restrictions following the change in Government. It is   - vii - recommended that, in the light of the general decline in traffic growth since 1980, a re-assessment is made of the need for widening of the Johnson Street Bridge and part of the UN Drive as early as the mid-19800 as originally foreseen. 7. Apart from the negative observations in paragraphs 3 and 4, borrower, contractor, supervising consultants and technical assistance performances were generally satisfactory. In retrospect, dividing the construction of the 130 km Totota-Ganta road into two separate contracts might have enabled completion within the original schedule and at lower cost. Institutional development was impaired by the resignation of a substantial number of senior MPW staff after the coup of 1980. The proposed Fifth Highway Project provides for the strengthening of MPW's new management.   LIBERIA THIRD HIGHWAY PROJECT (Ln. 1156-LBR) PROJECT COMI'1FTLON REPORT Actual and Appraisal Estimates of Project Cost (in US$'000) Bank Group Physical Project 1tem Contract Data A raisal Estimate (incl. cont.) Actual Cost Contributions Coor etion Contract Contractual Actual Corn- Contract Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Amount z X Signed Coapletion pletion Date Amount Date Civil lorks by Contract a) Johnson Street Bridge 01-14-76 10-19-77 01-07-79 6,687 1.097 6,215 7,312 1,216 6.992 8.208 6,992 85 100 b) Un Drive 01-14-76 01-14-78 12-01-78 5.915 2,865 5.094 7,959 2.605 6.307 8.912 6,301 71 1lv c) Totota-Ginta Road I/ 12-05-75 01-10-79 05-23-81 16,290 7,943 17.679 25,622 7,204 15.922 23,126 9,392 41 100 eedor joads by Force Account a) Equipment 331 1,424 1.755 50 845 895 845 94 b) 0peraLlnR Cost S86 154 640 313 159 472 159 34 T 87 C) Technica. Asslstan e 2/ 32 200 .232 1edcWlCal .i\sLance and Feliovswih! a) Technical Assistance to PPB 10-18-76 04-18-76 04-18-78 56 25 152 177 10 61 71 61 86 100 bl Fe.1.hips 91 38 38 38 100 100 Co_Iultants' Services A) Construc ion Supervision 364 2,236 2,600 (1) Juh,,un Street Bridge 02-04-76 11-03-77 02-07-79 651 130 800 930 800 86 too (1) ' S Drive 1, 02-04-76 02-03-78 01-31-79 457. 78 479 557 479 86 100 (Lii) Tot,ta-Ganta Road - 02-04-76 02-10-79 06-17-81 1,337 370 2,104 2,474 1,457 59 100 I>) Fcasibility Studies 03-18-77 08- -77 11-30-79 281 46 283 329 50 239 289 239 83 100 c) DetaIled Etnineering of 10 61 71 0 Mo.nt Coriee Dam Road d) Mci,rovia Urban Development Study 07-15-77 01-15-78 11-30-78 206 33 202 235 29 170 199 170 85 lo1 e) Deta,1cd l.ngr.eering of 07-24-80 02-15-80 03-31-80 59 7 46 53 46 87 100 Water Street improveaents TOTAL 13.200 33,500 46,700 12,094 34,362 46.456 26,985 S8 I/ Foreign costs of construction and supervision of works co-financed by tS$6.0 aillion AIDB loan. 2/ Foreign costs of technical assistance provided by ODA (UK). ./ Xncludlng agreed clalm tor additional compenation.   - ix - REPUBLIC OF LIBERIA THIRD HIGHWAY PROJECT (Ln. 1156-LBR) PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT Schedule of Disbursements (as of November 30, 1982) IBRD FISCAL ACCUMULATED ACTUAL DISBURSEMENTS YEAR END DISBURSEMENTS (US$'000) AS A PERCENTAGE OF APPRAISAL PROFILE ACTUAL APPRAISAL PROFILE ESTIMATE ESTIMATE 1976 9,100 2,560 4,000 44 156 1977 19,400 8,060 8,040 41 100 1978 26,200 14,820 12,200 47 82 1979 27,500 20,650 17,730 64 86 1980 24,610 20,900 76 85 1981 26,840 24,280 88 90 1982 27,500 26,420 96 96 1983 26,985 98 98 NOTE: Remaining loan balance of $515,777.35 was cancelled on January 6, 1983.   THIRD HIGHWAY PROJECT LOAN 1156-LER PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT PPB-TR27-2 JULY 1982 MINISTRY OF PUBLIC WORKS MONROVIA, LIBERIA PLANNING & PROGRAMMING BUREAU   F O R E W O R D This report is the Final Project Completion Report and therefore replaces the Draft Project Completion Report (PPB-TR27) which was prepared in January 1981. As such all efforts have been made to include as much relevant documented information as possible. There are two main reasons for preparing this completion report. The first reason is that it is a requirement of the lending institu- tions especially the World Bank that provided most of the financial resources that made the implementation of the Third Highway Project possible. The second reason is that it provides an opporturnity for the borrowing agency to review its before and after project decisions and activities. Special thanks go to the staff of the Programme Co-ordinator:'s Office, the Transport Engineering Division, and the Civil Engineering Division for their assistance and co-operation in providing the neces- sary information. On behalfof my colleagues Messrs P.S.K.Woodtor, R.A.Sherman III and myself, I wish to formally extend our thanks and appreciation to the World Bank and the Government of Liberia through the Ministry of Public Works for the opporturnity given us to study under the Third Highway Project Technical Assistance/Fellowship Programme. J.D.Wallace ? j & \ ) J TRANSPORT ECONOMIST ( AUTHOR) APPROVED: to Ma G Ngangana ASS ITANf MINISTER/PPB   - ii - PROJECT DATA Borrower ..... .. .. . ..................... ........... Republic of Liberia Fiscal Year of Borrower ..... ................. July 1,- June 30 Beneficiary .......................... . ........... Republic of Liberia Executive Agency ........................... ..... Ministry of Public Works Amount of Loan/Credit .......... ... .. US$27.5 Million Amount Disbursed ........................................ US$26.185 Million Amount to be Cancelled ......nP.e..... d... . ............ None Date of Loan Agreement ................................ August 28,1975 Effective Date Estimate ........... November 28, 1975 Expected Completion Date . ............................... December 31,1978 Actual Completion Date ........................... ... . May 1982 Physical Completion of Project Estimate ...................................... 100% Physical Completion of Project Actual ................................. ..... 100% Closing Date - Original . ................ . ... December 31,1979 Revised . .. . ............................ June 1981 Period of Grace ..... ... ... ... . .... .... ... .. 5 years Term of Loan ......... ....................... . ... 20 years Interest Rate on Lending to GOL ... ..... 8S2% per annum Commitment Charge ...................................... 3/4 of 1% per annum Amortization ............................ ..... . .IBRD/ADB LOAN/CREDIT Commencing Semi-Annually December 1, 1980 - June 1, 2000 Appraisal Mission Date ............................ . . November/December 1974 Negotiation. , .......... ................... Check IBRD Appraisal Report ........ . ......... . .Check IBRD Supervision Missions ....... ..... ............ . .. N.A. N.A. : Not Available N.E. : Not Estimated   - iii - THIRD HIGHWAY PROJECT LOAN 1156-LBER Fovnamur n .................... .................. ............. . .. . i Project Data......................... ....... .......ii.......... .ti Section 1: Summary and Conclusions .... .. . I fAve.tfk -- `- 4 - Arvu=d of the Project . . . .. ..4. 4 Section 3: Thie .................. ........ 5 3.1 General .-scri.t.on --' . 5 3.1.1 Construction of tho Keourado River Bridge . ,5 3.1.2 Upgrading of the United Nations Drive . 3.1.3 Construction and Re-aligement of Totota-Ganta Road ..................,7 3.1.4 Construction and Improvement of Faedar Roads. 7 3.1.5 Technical Assistance to MPW Planning and Proe- gramming Division .......................... . 7 3.1.6 Pre-investment Studies, Detailed Engineering and consultants' Services . ........................., 7 3.1.7 Monrovie Urban Planning Studies . ...................... 8 Section 4: Project Cost Estimates and Financing . . . 9 Socetli an LcocutAiot and Analysis of Project ......... . ............... 10 5.1 Mesuretdo Rivcr Dridge and U.N.Drive .10 5.2 United Nations Drive Improvement ..................... 11 5.3 Totota-Ganta Road .11 5.4 Construction and Improvement of Feeder Roads ......... 13 5,5 Technical Assistance to Planning and Programming Division and Fellowships ............................. 14 5.6 Monrovia Urban Development Study ..................... 17 5.7 Ganta-Tappita-Sanniquellie Feasibility Study ......... 18 5.8 Analysis of Project ..................................,19 Sectiuv 6; Cqmpletion Time, Costs, Disbur-raenta and Performanoe of Borrower and Consultants ........................... 26 Section 7: Re-xumin Ro- v1&raticAn of renples' Bridge and th-1 United Nations Drive .R8  - iv - Con,te,nts(Con't) PAGE 7.1 Previous Studies ....................... ,.,. 28 7.2 Economic Re-evaluation of Peoples' Bridge . .......... 29 7.2.1 Actual Construction and Supervision Costs . ......30 7.2.2 Estimation of Benefit Components . .. .30 7.3 Economic Re-evaluation of the U.N. Drive Improve- ment ..................... 32 7.3.1 Project Costs... 33 7.3.2 Project Benefits ........... 33 Section 8: Economic Re-evaluation of Totota-Ganta Road .35 8.1 Previous Studies .35 8.2 Analysis of Traffic Results .35 8.3 Road Improvement Costs .37 8.4 Estimates of Benefits and Economic Analysis .37  LIST OF TABLKS TABLE PAGE L. Doeign Staridwd for Project RoadA arid Bridge ............... 38 2. Break-Down of Estimated Project Cost . . 39 3. Design Standards for Feeder Roads . . 40 4. List of Equipment to be Procured for Feeder Road Unit andCost Estimate . . 41 5. List of Roads Completed ..... .. ..................... .42 6. Break Down of Project Expenditure . . 43 7. Equipment Fleet Inventory .................................. 44 8. Estimated and Actual Schedule for Disbursement.45... .. 45 9. Traffic Volume Classification Characteristics of Mesurado Bridge before and after Opening of People's Bridge (September 1978, January-February 1979)....46 10. Peoples' Bridge Traffic Counts January 10th & 15th-16, 1980 Bi-Directional Flow . ...................... 47 11. Traffic Projections for Peoples' Bridge and United Nationa. Drive ............. * 48 12. Actual and Adjusted Costs for Construction of Peoples' Bridge ............................................ 49 13. Peoples' Bridge and United Nations Drive Re-evaluation Economic Vehicle Operating Costs for Paved and Gravel Roads. 50 14. Peoples' Bridge Re-evaluation:Vehicle Running Cost for Paved Road ..51 15. Peoples'Bridge Re-evaluation. Components of Yearly Benefit .52 16. Peoples' Bridge Re-evaluation:Vehicle Stop/Start Cycle and Idling Costs ..................................... 53 17. Economic Analysis for People*' Bridge .54 18. Composition,Per cent Composition or ADT Volumes (1979) United Nations Drive Traffic Counts Bi-Directional A.D.T...55 1D. Actual and Adjusted Costs for Improvement of United Nations Drive. 56 20. User Savings from Paving Lower United Nation Drive .57 21. User Savings from Paving Middle United Nations Drive . 58 22. User Savings from Paving Upper United Nations Drive.. . 59 23. United Natiej&a Dr1vu voc Renefitr ..... ....._,,,,.60  - vi - LIST OF TABLES (CON'T) TABLE ?AGE 24. United Nations Drive Time Saving Benefits ................ 60 25. Economic Analysis of United Nations Drive.... Improvement .............................................. 61 26. Cost-Benefit Ratios, Internal Rates of Return and First Year Rates of Return ...... 62 27. 24 hour traffic by site 1081 ............................ 63 28. Comparison of 1973, 1980 and 1981 ADT on Totota- Ganta Road ................................................ 64 29. Composition of Traffic (Percent) Totota-Ganta Road ..................................................... 64 30. Traffic Projection for Totota-Gbarnga Section ........... 65 31 Traffic Projection for Gbarnga Garnta Section ........... . 65 32. Actual Construction and Supervision Costs for Totota-Ganta Road Improvement . .................. 66 33. Totota-Ganta Road Re-evaluation: Economic Vehicle Operating Costs ................. GO 34. Totota-Ganta Road Re-evaluation: Totota-Gbarnga Section Vehicle Operating Cost Savings (Fair Gravel Road to Paved Road) ............................... 67 35. Totota-Ganta Road Re-evaluation: Gbarnga-Ganta Section Vehicle Operating Cost Savings (Fair Gravel Road to Paved Road) ............................... 67 36. Totota-Gant